mgdn的个人主页 - 老虎社区

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09-18

$美国超微公司(AMD)$ 利空来了嘛，英伟达入股因特尔[贱笑]

09-12

$甲骨文(ORCL)$ [贱笑]

09-12

$甲骨文(ORCL)$ 财报当天怎么不质疑，在搞笑啊

对甲骨文“炸裂大单”的质疑：全指望OpenAI、收入都在长期、能赚钱吗、有钱建吗？

08-08

$联合健康(UNH)$ Amedisys是美国最大的家庭健康服务提供商之一，也是第二大临终关怀服务提供商。

08-08

$联合健康(UNH)$ 司法部刚刚批准了联合健康以33亿美元收购家庭护理公司Amedisys

08-05

$联合健康(UNH)$ 据说伯克希尔很可能投资联合健康了

08-02

$联合健康(UNH)$ 做空稳赚不赔[贱笑]

07-31

$联合健康(UNH)$ 下跌那就做空，简单的很啊

07-31

‌$联合健康(UNH)$ ‌做空大赚行情

07-31

$联合健康(UNH)$ [得意]

07-30

$联合健康(UNH)$ 做空[贱笑]

07-24

$特斯拉(TSLA)$ 估计特斯拉未来几个季度业绩都差，谁还买

07-19

$联合健康(UNH)$ [得意] [贱笑]

07-17

$联合健康(UNH)$ [贱笑] [开心] 做空爽得很

07-15

$联合健康(UNH)$ [龇牙] [得意]

07-15

$联合健康(UNH)$ 无脑做空稳赚不赔

07-15

$联合健康(UNH)$ 联合做空[贱笑]

07-04

关税加起来拉

特朗普：各国将于8月1日开始支付新关税，税率可能从60%-70%到10%-20%

06-25

泡沫而已，本来就可以交易

国泰君安国际正式获批提供虚拟资产交易服务，为中资券商首家

06-22

犹太资本钱多多💰，随便拉了好多

去老虎APP查看更多动态

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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ORCL\">甲骨文</a>最新发布的财报让市场陷入一种矛盾的狂热。</p><p>一方面，公司当期收入和短期指引双双不及预期；另一方面，其剩余履约价值（RPO，即积压订单）一夜之间暴增至“令人瞠目结舌”的4550亿美元。如此大幅的增长，几乎全部由四份多亿美元合同推动，其中国内外分析普遍认为最大份额与OpenAI的长期云服务合同直接相关。</p><p>与此同时，最新消息让这笔神秘的巨额RPO浮出水面：9月10日，据报道，OpenAI已签署合同，<strong>在未来约五年内从甲骨文购买价值3000亿美元的计算能力，这意味着OpenAI每年平均需要向甲骨文支付约600亿美元。</strong></p><p>对于投资者而言，看懂这组数据背后的真正含义至关重要。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">摩根大通</a>在10日的研报中表示，市场可能忽略了几个核心问题：这份史诗级订单的客户是否过于集中（尤其是对OpenAI的依赖）？绝大部分收入是否遥遥无期？这些AI订单的利润率究竟如何？以及，为了支撑这些订单，甲骨文是否有足够的资金进行天文数字般的基础设施建设？这些问题直接关系到甲骨文未来的盈利能力和现金流健康，是投资者在狂热中必须冷静思考的关键。</p><h2 id=\"id_2196333389\">爆发式RPO增长：全部押注AI及OpenAI</h2><p>甲骨文第一财季最引人注目的无疑是其RPO的惊人增长。4550亿美元的数字意味着单季增加了约3170亿美元的未来业务，同比增幅高达359%。公司首席执行官Safra Catz向分析师表示，该季度公司与三位不同的客户签署了合同。她强调：</p><blockquote><p>我们已经与人工智能领域的巨头们签署了重要的云合同，包括OpenAI、xAI、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/META\">Meta</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">英伟达</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMD\">AMD</a>以及许多其他公司。</p></blockquote><p>而最新报道披露了这笔让市场疯狂的履约：9月10日， OpenAI已签署合同，<strong>在未来约五年内从甲骨文购买价值3000亿美元的算力</strong>。该协议将从2027年开始执行，所需的4.5GW电力容量相当于两座胡佛水坝的发电量，足以供应约400万户家庭用电。</p><p>需要注意的是，OpenAI是一家仍在亏损的初创公司，其在6月披露的年化收入约为100亿美元，<strong>这远低于其为该协议每年平均需要支付的600亿美元。</strong>因此，这笔交易的成功，完全建立在ChatGPT能够持续其爆炸性增长，并被全球数十亿用户以及主要企业和政府广泛采用的假设之上。</p><p>摩根大通分析师表示，新增RPO中大部分属于长期履约义务，<strong>而大约只有10%属于短期RPO（即未来一年内将确认的收入），这意味着短期履约合同额环比几乎没有增长，大部分收入将在遥远的未来才能得到确认。</strong><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">摩根士丹利</a>的股票研究团队在10日的研报中也预计，在这笔高达4550亿美元的RPO中，只有约10%会在未来12个月内确认为收入。</p><p>虽然OpenAI的增长非同寻常，但它也正面临日益增长的压力，包括昂贵的人才争夺战、与<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">微软</a>紧张的合作关系谈判，以及一项正在接受两个州监管机构审查的营利性重组。对OpenAI而言，这是一次对其未来增长的激进赌博；而对甲骨文来说，这意味着将未来收入的很大一部分集中于单一客户，这对双方的执行力和市场前景都提出了严峻考验。</p><h2 id=\"id_599282658\">短期财务承压，指引不及预期</h2><p>与积压订单的<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002296\">辉煌</a>形成鲜明对比的是甲骨文疲软的即期业绩和短期展望。第一财季总收入按固定汇率计算增长11%，低于市场普遍预期的13%。其中，云服务和许可支持收入增长14%（固定汇率），也低于16%的共识预期。</p><p>更令市场担忧的是，公司对第二财季的总收入增长指引为12-14%，低于市场预期的15%；总云收入增长指引为32-36%，同样低于预期的37%。分析师在报告中认为，<strong>这反映出新增的大部分RPO属于长期合同，对近期的财务贡献有限。</strong></p><p><strong>与此同时，甲骨文的自由现金流也因巨大的资本支出而承压。</strong>第一财季自由现金流为负3.62亿美元，远低于市场预期的12.71亿美元。为支持云基础设施（OCI）的建设，公司将2026财年的资本支出指引上调100亿美元至350亿美元，这预示着其自由现金流在未来一段时间内将继续面临压力。</p><h2 id=\"id_175938248\">利润与增长的权衡</h2><p>甲骨文正在进行一场典型的“以利润换增长”的豪赌。摩根大通认为，新增的大部分订单与AI模型训练有关，这类业务的利润率相对较低，可能会在长期内拖累营业利润的增长速度，使其慢于收入增长。</p><p>基于这一判断，该行预计，在甲骨文发布财报后，<strong>市场对其未来数年收入的普遍预期将会上调，但每股收益（EPS）的预期变动将微乎其微，而自由现金流（FCF）的预期则会下调。</strong></p><p>甲骨文将2026财年的营业利润增长指引设定为“中双位数”，略高于市场目前约12%的增长预期。摩根大通认为，这可能更多反映了近期裁员所带来的成本节约效应，而非来自业务本身的高利润增长。</p><h2 id=\"id_630311960\">摩根大通维持中性评级，上调目标价</h2><p>尽管存在诸多疑问和短期压力，摩根大通承认甲骨文在获取OCI业务方面取得了“令人印象深刻的成就”，并认可其在AI领域的长期潜力。该行将甲骨文的目标价从210美元上调至270美元，主要理由是提升了对OCI业务的多年增长轨迹预期。</p><p>然而，该行维持对甲骨文的“中性”评级，认为当前的风险与回报“趋于平衡”。虽然AI相关的积极数据点可能会在短期内主导市场讨论，但投资者最终需要关注利润率和现金流等基本面问题。甲骨文的成功取决于其能否高效地建设数据中心容量、维持OCI订单的增长势头，并成功消化此前收购的Cerner业务。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>对甲骨文“炸裂大单”的质疑：全指望OpenAI、收入都在长期、能赚钱吗、有钱建吗？</title>\n<style 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href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3755415\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5a763433a3b9770e33abe759e6bf88d9","relate_stocks":{"ORCL":"甲骨文"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3755415","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2566932964","content_text":"甲骨文最新发布的财报让市场陷入一种矛盾的狂热。一方面，公司当期收入和短期指引双双不及预期；另一方面，其剩余履约价值（RPO，即积压订单）一夜之间暴增至“令人瞠目结舌”的4550亿美元。如此大幅的增长，几乎全部由四份多亿美元合同推动，其中国内外分析普遍认为最大份额与OpenAI的长期云服务合同直接相关。与此同时，最新消息让这笔神秘的巨额RPO浮出水面：9月10日，据报道，OpenAI已签署合同，在未来约五年内从甲骨文购买价值3000亿美元的计算能力，这意味着OpenAI每年平均需要向甲骨文支付约600亿美元。对于投资者而言，看懂这组数据背后的真正含义至关重要。摩根大通在10日的研报中表示，市场可能忽略了几个核心问题：这份史诗级订单的客户是否过于集中（尤其是对OpenAI的依赖）？绝大部分收入是否遥遥无期？这些AI订单的利润率究竟如何？以及，为了支撑这些订单，甲骨文是否有足够的资金进行天文数字般的基础设施建设？这些问题直接关系到甲骨文未来的盈利能力和现金流健康，是投资者在狂热中必须冷静思考的关键。爆发式RPO增长：全部押注AI及OpenAI甲骨文第一财季最引人注目的无疑是其RPO的惊人增长。4550亿美元的数字意味着单季增加了约3170亿美元的未来业务，同比增幅高达359%。公司首席执行官Safra Catz向分析师表示，该季度公司与三位不同的客户签署了合同。她强调：我们已经与人工智能领域的巨头们签署了重要的云合同，包括OpenAI、xAI、Meta、英伟达、AMD以及许多其他公司。而最新报道披露了这笔让市场疯狂的履约：9月10日， OpenAI已签署合同，在未来约五年内从甲骨文购买价值3000亿美元的算力。该协议将从2027年开始执行，所需的4.5GW电力容量相当于两座胡佛水坝的发电量，足以供应约400万户家庭用电。需要注意的是，OpenAI是一家仍在亏损的初创公司，其在6月披露的年化收入约为100亿美元，这远低于其为该协议每年平均需要支付的600亿美元。因此，这笔交易的成功，完全建立在ChatGPT能够持续其爆炸性增长，并被全球数十亿用户以及主要企业和政府广泛采用的假设之上。摩根大通分析师表示，新增RPO中大部分属于长期履约义务，而大约只有10%属于短期RPO（即未来一年内将确认的收入），这意味着短期履约合同额环比几乎没有增长，大部分收入将在遥远的未来才能得到确认。摩根士丹利的股票研究团队在10日的研报中也预计，在这笔高达4550亿美元的RPO中，只有约10%会在未来12个月内确认为收入。虽然OpenAI的增长非同寻常，但它也正面临日益增长的压力，包括昂贵的人才争夺战、与微软紧张的合作关系谈判，以及一项正在接受两个州监管机构审查的营利性重组。对OpenAI而言，这是一次对其未来增长的激进赌博；而对甲骨文来说，这意味着将未来收入的很大一部分集中于单一客户，这对双方的执行力和市场前景都提出了严峻考验。短期财务承压，指引不及预期与积压订单的辉煌形成鲜明对比的是甲骨文疲软的即期业绩和短期展望。第一财季总收入按固定汇率计算增长11%，低于市场普遍预期的13%。其中，云服务和许可支持收入增长14%（固定汇率），也低于16%的共识预期。更令市场担忧的是，公司对第二财季的总收入增长指引为12-14%，低于市场预期的15%；总云收入增长指引为32-36%，同样低于预期的37%。分析师在报告中认为，这反映出新增的大部分RPO属于长期合同，对近期的财务贡献有限。与此同时，甲骨文的自由现金流也因巨大的资本支出而承压。第一财季自由现金流为负3.62亿美元，远低于市场预期的12.71亿美元。为支持云基础设施（OCI）的建设，公司将2026财年的资本支出指引上调100亿美元至350亿美元，这预示着其自由现金流在未来一段时间内将继续面临压力。利润与增长的权衡甲骨文正在进行一场典型的“以利润换增长”的豪赌。摩根大通认为，新增的大部分订单与AI模型训练有关，这类业务的利润率相对较低，可能会在长期内拖累营业利润的增长速度，使其慢于收入增长。基于这一判断，该行预计，在甲骨文发布财报后，市场对其未来数年收入的普遍预期将会上调，但每股收益（EPS）的预期变动将微乎其微，而自由现金流（FCF）的预期则会下调。甲骨文将2026财年的营业利润增长指引设定为“中双位数”，略高于市场目前约12%的增长预期。摩根大通认为，这可能更多反映了近期裁员所带来的成本节约效应，而非来自业务本身的高利润增长。摩根大通维持中性评级，上调目标价尽管存在诸多疑问和短期压力，摩根大通承认甲骨文在获取OCI业务方面取得了“令人印象深刻的成就”，并认可其在AI领域的长期潜力。该行将甲骨文的目标价从210美元上调至270美元，主要理由是提升了对OCI业务的多年增长轨迹预期。然而，该行维持对甲骨文的“中性”评级，认为当前的风险与回报“趋于平衡”。虽然AI相关的积极数据点可能会在短期内主导市场讨论，但投资者最终需要关注利润率和现金流等基本面问题。甲骨文的成功取决于其能否高效地建设数据中心容量、维持OCI订单的增长势头，并成功消化此前收购的Cerner业务。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"ORCL":1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":693,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":465137121357912,"gmtCreate":1754584113083,"gmtModify":1754584114453,"author":{"id":"4151362569926120","authorId":"4151362569926120","name":"mgdn","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4151362569926120","idStr":"4151362569926120"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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12:50","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"特朗普：各国将于8月1日开始支付新关税，税率可能从60%-70%到10%-20%","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1112397890","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"7月4日，据报道，美国总统特朗普重申将于周五 开始向贸易伙伴发出有关关税税率的信函，但拒绝透露哪些国家将从周五开始收到信函。特朗普表示，到7月9日，“将全面覆盖，关税税率可能从60%-70%到10%-20%”。特朗普称：各国将于8月1日开始支付新关税，我们已经完成了最终版本，它基本上会说明各国将要缴纳的关税水平。财政部长贝森特则透露，约100个国家可能面临10%的对等关税税率。","content":"<html><head></head><body><blockquote><p>据报道，美国总统特朗普重申将于周五（7月4日）开始向贸易伙伴发出有关关税税率的信函，拒绝透露哪些国家将从周五开始收到信函。特朗普表示，已经完成了最终版本，基本上会说明各国将要缴纳的关税水平。</p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: left;\">特朗普政府正准备向贸易伙伴发送单边关税税率通知，标志着其贸易政策进入新的强硬阶段。这一举措将在7月9日谈判截止期限前实施，对尚未达成协议的国家构成直接压力。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">7月4日，据报道，美国总统特朗普重申将于周五（7月4日）开始向贸易伙伴发出有关关税税率的信函，但拒绝透露哪些国家将从周五开始收到信函。特朗普表示，到7月9日，“<strong>将全面覆盖，关税税率可能从60%-70%到10%-20%</strong>”。特朗普称：</p><blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>各国将于8月1日开始支付新关税</strong>，我们已经完成了最终版本，它基本上会说明各国将要缴纳的关税水平。</p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: left;\">7月3日，据新华网报道，欧盟委员会主席冯德莱恩表示，欧盟目标是在7月9日前达成协议。在关税问题上“准备好与美国达成一项原则性协议”。但若谈判失败，欧盟将坚决采取反制措施以保护欧洲经济。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">同日据媒体报道，美国总统特朗普表示，可能最早从周五开始向贸易伙伴发送信函，在7月9日谈判截止期限前单方面设定关税税率。财政部长贝森特则透露，约100个国家可能面临10%的对等关税税率。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">特朗普考虑到与170多个国家谈判的复杂性，更倾向于直接通知大多数国家具体的关税税率，跳过详细的谈判过程。特朗普表示：</p><blockquote><p style=\"text-align: left;\">我们有（面对）170多个国家，你能达成多少协议？这些（谈判）要复杂得多。我们可能会发出一些信函，<strong>可能从明天开始，每天向10个国家发送信函，列出20%至30%的关税税率。</strong></p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: left;\">分析称特朗普的表态大幅提升了贸易紧张局势，为争相与美国政府达成协议的贸易伙伴增添了紧迫性。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">目前参与谈判的主要贸易伙伴面临更高的关税税率，<strong>包括欧盟的20%、印度的26%和日本的24%。其他未与特朗普政府进行贸易谈判的国家面临更高的对等关税，包括山地小国莱索托的50%、马达加斯加的47%和泰国的36%</strong>。</p><h2 id=\"100-10\">100国面临10%对等关税</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">据媒体报道，美国财政部长贝森特在电视采访中表示，约100个国家可能面临10%的对等关税税率，并预测在7月9日最后期限前，将出现贸易协定宣布的&#34;热潮&#34;。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">而面对是否延长截止期限的提问时，贝森特指出将由特朗普最终决定：</p><blockquote><p style=\"text-align: left;\">我们会按照特朗普的意愿行事，他将决定对方是否在真诚谈判。</p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">媒体指出，如果对100个国家实施10%关税，这一数量将少于特朗普政府最初的设想。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">美国最初原始的对等关税清单显示，123个司法管辖区将面临10%的关税税率，主要是小国以及一些领土，如澳大利亚无人居住的赫德岛和麦克唐纳群岛。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">大多数初始关税税率为10%的国家并未与特朗普政府进行任何谈判，英国是个例外。英国在5月达成协议，保持10%的税率，并在汽车和飞机发动机等部分行业获得优惠待遇。</p><h2 id=\"8a81f272\">“最后通牒”临近</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">美国总统4月2日首次宣布提高所谓的&#34;对等&#34;关税，但暂停执行90天以给各国谈判时间，期间实施10%的税率。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">美国目前已与英国和越南宣布达成协议。此前华尔街见闻报道，越南协议已于周三公布，对越南出口美国商品征收20%关税，对被视为转运商品征收40%关税。尽管越南协议的关税税率低于特朗普最初对该国征收的46%关税，但仍高于普遍的10%水平。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">白宫尚未发布协议条款清单或正式公告，许多协议细节仍不明确。投资者对美越协议消息反应积极，在越南设有工厂的美国制造商股价周三上涨。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">而日本、韩国和欧盟等主要贸易伙伴仍在努力敲定协议。特朗普对与印度达成协议表示乐观，但对日本协议前景言辞严厉。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">华尔街见闻报道，特朗普曾称东京是难以合作的谈判伙伴，威胁实施更严厉的惩罚措施，包括汽车出口配额限制。特朗普还表态可能对日本商品征收30-35%关税。</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1700700604709","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>特朗普：各国将于8月1日开始支付新关税，税率可能从60%-70%到10%-20%</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ 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0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n特朗普：各国将于8月1日开始支付新关税，税率可能从60%-70%到10%-20%\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2025-07-04 12:50 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3750393><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>据报道，美国总统特朗普重申将于周五（7月4日）开始向贸易伙伴发出有关关税税率的信函，拒绝透露哪些国家将从周五开始收到信函。特朗普表示，已经完成了最终版本，基本上会说明各国将要缴纳的关税水平。特朗普政府正准备向贸易伙伴发送单边关税税率通知，标志着其贸易政策进入新的强硬阶段。这一举措将在7月9日谈判截止期限前实施，对尚未达成协议的国家构成直接压力。7月4日，据报道，美国总统特朗普重申将于周五（7月4日...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3750393\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/9c47ac48e4d507b3994515e1566915ac","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3750393","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1112397890","content_text":"据报道，美国总统特朗普重申将于周五（7月4日）开始向贸易伙伴发出有关关税税率的信函，拒绝透露哪些国家将从周五开始收到信函。特朗普表示，已经完成了最终版本，基本上会说明各国将要缴纳的关税水平。特朗普政府正准备向贸易伙伴发送单边关税税率通知，标志着其贸易政策进入新的强硬阶段。这一举措将在7月9日谈判截止期限前实施，对尚未达成协议的国家构成直接压力。7月4日，据报道，美国总统特朗普重申将于周五（7月4日）开始向贸易伙伴发出有关关税税率的信函，但拒绝透露哪些国家将从周五开始收到信函。特朗普表示，到7月9日，“将全面覆盖，关税税率可能从60%-70%到10%-20%”。特朗普称：各国将于8月1日开始支付新关税，我们已经完成了最终版本，它基本上会说明各国将要缴纳的关税水平。7月3日，据新华网报道，欧盟委员会主席冯德莱恩表示，欧盟目标是在7月9日前达成协议。在关税问题上“准备好与美国达成一项原则性协议”。但若谈判失败，欧盟将坚决采取反制措施以保护欧洲经济。同日据媒体报道，美国总统特朗普表示，可能最早从周五开始向贸易伙伴发送信函，在7月9日谈判截止期限前单方面设定关税税率。财政部长贝森特则透露，约100个国家可能面临10%的对等关税税率。特朗普考虑到与170多个国家谈判的复杂性，更倾向于直接通知大多数国家具体的关税税率，跳过详细的谈判过程。特朗普表示：我们有（面对）170多个国家，你能达成多少协议？这些（谈判）要复杂得多。我们可能会发出一些信函，可能从明天开始，每天向10个国家发送信函，列出20%至30%的关税税率。分析称特朗普的表态大幅提升了贸易紧张局势，为争相与美国政府达成协议的贸易伙伴增添了紧迫性。目前参与谈判的主要贸易伙伴面临更高的关税税率，包括欧盟的20%、印度的26%和日本的24%。其他未与特朗普政府进行贸易谈判的国家面临更高的对等关税，包括山地小国莱索托的50%、马达加斯加的47%和泰国的36%。100国面临10%对等关税据媒体报道，美国财政部长贝森特在电视采访中表示，约100个国家可能面临10%的对等关税税率，并预测在7月9日最后期限前，将出现贸易协定宣布的\"热潮\"。而面对是否延长截止期限的提问时，贝森特指出将由特朗普最终决定：我们会按照特朗普的意愿行事，他将决定对方是否在真诚谈判。媒体指出，如果对100个国家实施10%关税，这一数量将少于特朗普政府最初的设想。美国最初原始的对等关税清单显示，123个司法管辖区将面临10%的关税税率，主要是小国以及一些领土，如澳大利亚无人居住的赫德岛和麦克唐纳群岛。大多数初始关税税率为10%的国家并未与特朗普政府进行任何谈判，英国是个例外。英国在5月达成协议，保持10%的税率，并在汽车和飞机发动机等部分行业获得优惠待遇。“最后通牒”临近美国总统4月2日首次宣布提高所谓的\"对等\"关税，但暂停执行90天以给各国谈判时间，期间实施10%的税率。美国目前已与英国和越南宣布达成协议。此前华尔街见闻报道，越南协议已于周三公布，对越南出口美国商品征收20%关税，对被视为转运商品征收40%关税。尽管越南协议的关税税率低于特朗普最初对该国征收的46%关税，但仍高于普遍的10%水平。白宫尚未发布协议条款清单或正式公告，许多协议细节仍不明确。投资者对美越协议消息反应积极，在越南设有工厂的美国制造商股价周三上涨。而日本、韩国和欧盟等主要贸易伙伴仍在努力敲定协议。特朗普对与印度达成协议表示乐观，但对日本协议前景言辞严厉。华尔街见闻报道，特朗普曾称东京是难以合作的谈判伙伴，威胁实施更严厉的惩罚措施，包括汽车出口配额限制。特朗普还表态可能对日本商品征收30-35%关税。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":393,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":449783952122592,"gmtCreate":1750836787905,"gmtModify":1750836789737,"author":{"id":"4151362569926120","authorId":"4151362569926120","name":"mgdn","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4151362569926120","idStr":"4151362569926120"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"泡沫而已，本来就可以交易","listText":"泡沫而已，本来就可以交易","text":"泡沫而已，本来就可以交易","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/449783952122592","repostId":"1161885393","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1161885393","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1750832520,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1161885393?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2025-06-25 14:22","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"国泰君安国际正式获批提供虚拟资产交易服务，为中资券商首家","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1161885393","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"6月25日，$国泰君安国际(01788)$盘初涨幅扩大至逾70%！正式获批提供虚拟资产交易服务，为中资券商首家。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>6月25日，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01788\">国泰君安国际</a>午后涨幅扩大至150%！正式获批提供虚拟资产交易服务，为中资券商首家。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/68d1bd99099d43a27c908f3c3936d7c3\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"240\"/></p><p>6月25日，国泰君安国际港交所公告称，2025年6月24日，公司之全资附属公司国泰君安证券（香港）有限公司正式获香港证券及期货事务监察委员会批准，将现有第1类（证券交易）受规管活动的牌照升级为透过在香港证监会持牌平台上开立综合账户的安排下，提供虚拟资产交易服务。本公司股东及潜在投资者于买卖本公司证券时务请审慎行事。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c858679ea3cf4f840bd4f0f91ccd9df3\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"844\" tg-height=\"772\"/></p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>国泰君安国际正式获批提供虚拟资产交易服务，为中资券商首家</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; 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style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2025-06-25 14:22</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>6月25日，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01788\">国泰君安国际</a>午后涨幅扩大至150%！正式获批提供虚拟资产交易服务，为中资券商首家。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/68d1bd99099d43a27c908f3c3936d7c3\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"240\"/></p><p>6月25日，国泰君安国际港交所公告称，2025年6月24日，公司之全资附属公司国泰君安证券（香港）有限公司正式获香港证券及期货事务监察委员会批准，将现有第1类（证券交易）受规管活动的牌照升级为透过在香港证监会持牌平台上开立综合账户的安排下，提供虚拟资产交易服务。本公司股东及潜在投资者于买卖本公司证券时务请审慎行事。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c858679ea3cf4f840bd4f0f91ccd9df3\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"844\" tg-height=\"772\"/></p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5d8fb95e65f042f352c6313989391357","relate_stocks":{"01788":"国泰君安国际","BK1147":"投资银行业与经纪业"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1161885393","content_text":"6月25日，国泰君安国际午后涨幅扩大至150%！正式获批提供虚拟资产交易服务，为中资券商首家。6月25日，国泰君安国际港交所公告称，2025年6月24日，公司之全资附属公司国泰君安证券（香港）有限公司正式获香港证券及期货事务监察委员会批准，将现有第1类（证券交易）受规管活动的牌照升级为透过在香港证监会持牌平台上开立综合账户的安排下，提供虚拟资产交易服务。本公司股东及潜在投资者于买卖本公司证券时务请审慎行事。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"01788":1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":434,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":448840816427040,"gmtCreate":1750606636860,"gmtModify":1750642153418,"author":{"id":"4151362569926120","authorId":"4151362569926120","name":"mgdn","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4151362569926120","idStr":"4151362569926120"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"犹太资本钱多多💰，随便拉了好多","listText":"犹太资本钱多多💰，随便拉了好多","text":"犹太资本钱多多💰，随便拉了好多","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/448840816427040","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":735,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":409967736533464,"gmtCreate":1741099871330,"gmtModify":1741101602433,"author":{"id":"4151362569926120","authorId":"4151362569926120","name":"mgdn","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4151362569926120","authorIdStr":"4151362569926120"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ASML\">$阿斯麦(ASML)$ </a>&nbsp;[微笑]&nbsp;&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ASML\">$阿斯麦(ASML)$ </a>&nbsp;[微笑]&nbsp;&nbsp;","text":"$阿斯麦(ASML)$ [微笑]","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7f04da7829c151ae0c6a305114eee77c","width":"906","height":"1459"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/372262081957944","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1690,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3560995222377156","authorId":"3560995222377156","name":"Evannana","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3560995222377156","authorIdStr":"3560995222377156"},"content":"跌回几年前的水平了，光刻机巨头也太没谱了","text":"跌回几年前的水平了，光刻机巨头也太没谱了","html":"跌回几年前的水平了，光刻机巨头也太没谱了"}],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":465137582809128,"gmtCreate":1754584043040,"gmtModify":1754584044454,"author":{"id":"4151362569926120","authorId":"4151362569926120","name":"mgdn","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4151362569926120","authorIdStr":"4151362569926120"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UNH\">$联合健康(UNH)$&nbsp;</a> 司法部刚刚批准了联合健康以33亿美元收购家庭护理公司Amedisys","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UNH\">$联合健康(UNH)$&nbsp;</a> 司法部刚刚批准了联合健康以33亿美元收购家庭护理公司Amedisys","text":"$联合健康(UNH)$ 司法部刚刚批准了联合健康以33亿美元收购家庭护理公司Amedisys","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/465137582809128","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":938,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"4204676077602360","authorId":"4204676077602360","name":"路很长向前看","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fa1a5e43e666bd01d92b4b35ffa4b944","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"4204676077602360","authorIdStr":"4204676077602360"},"content":"说明还是和之前一样运作","text":"说明还是和之前一样运作","html":"说明还是和之前一样运作"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":459912274247824,"gmtCreate":1753320415214,"gmtModify":1753320416342,"author":{"id":"4151362569926120","authorId":"4151362569926120","name":"mgdn","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4151362569926120","authorIdStr":"4151362569926120"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$&nbsp;</a> 估计特斯拉未来几个季度业绩都差，谁还买","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$&nbsp;</a> 估计特斯拉未来几个季度业绩都差，谁还买","text":"$特斯拉(TSLA)$ 估计特斯拉未来几个季度业绩都差，谁还买","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/459912274247824","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":606,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3488807010026702","authorId":"3488807010026702","name":"流浪的鱼hhh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b16b86ff4a46985ba4a14d71057c0076","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3488807010026702","authorIdStr":"3488807010026702"},"content":"短线爆拉型选手别买。看好中长期的话，趁这段时间在谷底徘徊慢慢分批建仓，前提是你得相信马斯克吹的牛且有耐心等。","text":"短线爆拉型选手别买。看好中长期的话，趁这段时间在谷底徘徊慢慢分批建仓，前提是你得相信马斯克吹的牛且有耐心等。","html":"短线爆拉型选手别买。看好中长期的话，趁这段时间在谷底徘徊慢慢分批建仓，前提是你得相信马斯克吹的牛且有耐心等。"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":456917459817064,"gmtCreate":1752588802048,"gmtModify":1752589987231,"author":{"id":"4151362569926120","authorId":"4151362569926120","name":"mgdn","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4151362569926120","authorIdStr":"4151362569926120"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UNH\">$联合健康(UNH)$&nbsp;</a> 无脑做空稳赚不赔","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UNH\">$联合健康(UNH)$&nbsp;</a> 无脑做空稳赚不赔","text":"$联合健康(UNH)$ 无脑做空稳赚不赔","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/456917459817064","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":660,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":371543285694536,"gmtCreate":1731717839428,"gmtModify":1731717842429,"author":{"id":"4151362569926120","authorId":"4151362569926120","name":"mgdn","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4151362569926120","authorIdStr":"4151362569926120"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"不太对啊，AMAT的业绩疲软并不意味着ASML也会遇到相同的问题。AMAT因某些特定客户的需求减少或者其自身产品线的竞争压力而表现不佳，但ASML因其独特的EUV技术仍然可以在全球范围内仍然保持强劲的需求。","listText":"不太对啊，AMAT的业绩疲软并不意味着ASML也会遇到相同的问题。AMAT因某些特定客户的需求减少或者其自身产品线的竞争压力而表现不佳，但ASML因其独特的EUV技术仍然可以在全球范围内仍然保持强劲的需求。","text":"不太对啊，AMAT的业绩疲软并不意味着ASML也会遇到相同的问题。AMAT因某些特定客户的需求减少或者其自身产品线的竞争压力而表现不佳，但ASML因其独特的EUV技术仍然可以在全球范围内仍然保持强劲的需求。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/371543285694536","repostId":"1178165839","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1178165839","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"个股异动一手消息解读","home_visible":1,"media_name":"异动解读","id":"1092702339","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a81accab1e7ee4144dc051f71903a390"},"pubTimestamp":1731699518,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1178165839?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2024-11-16 03:38","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"异动解读 | 应用材料(AMAT)疲软预期或拖累阿斯麦(ASML)股价,盘中下跌5%","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1178165839","media":"异动解读","summary":"半导体设备制造龙头阿斯麦今日盘中股价大跌5%,引发市场广泛关注。分析人士认为,阿斯麦股价下跌或与半导体行业同行应用材料发布的疲软业绩预期有关。根据AMAT公布的数据,由于部分半导体市场需求疲软,预计其第一财季营收低于预期,仅71.5亿美元。此外,AMAT的中国市场营收占比也出现下滑,由去年同期的44%降至30%。因此,市场担忧AMAT的疲软预期可能会波及到阿斯麦等主要光刻机供应商。","content":"<p>半导体设备制造龙头阿斯麦(ASML)今日盘中股价大跌5%,引发市场广泛关注。</p>\n\n<p>分析人士认为,阿斯麦股价下跌或与半导体行业同行应用材料(AMAT)发布的疲软业绩预期有关。根据AMAT公布的数据,由于部分半导体市场需求疲软,预计其第一财季营收低于预期,仅71.5亿美元。此外,AMAT的中国市场营收占比也出现下滑,由去年同期的44%降至30%。</p>\n\n<p>尽管人工智能对高端芯片的需求持续旺盛,但其他领域如存储芯片、工业设备和汽车芯片的需求疲软,压制了半导体设备制造商的整体业绩表现。一旦设备大厂的订单放缓,将不可避免影响整个半导体供应链。因此,市场担忧AMAT的疲软预期可能会波及到阿斯麦等主要光刻机供应商。</p>","source":"ai_movement_cn","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" 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style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/a81accab1e7ee4144dc051f71903a390);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">异动解读 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2024-11-16 03:38</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>半导体设备制造龙头阿斯麦(ASML)今日盘中股价大跌5%,引发市场广泛关注。</p>\n\n<p>分析人士认为,阿斯麦股价下跌或与半导体行业同行应用材料(AMAT)发布的疲软业绩预期有关。根据AMAT公布的数据,由于部分半导体市场需求疲软,预计其第一财季营收低于预期,仅71.5亿美元。此外,AMAT的中国市场营收占比也出现下滑,由去年同期的44%降至30%。</p>\n\n<p>尽管人工智能对高端芯片的需求持续旺盛,但其他领域如存储芯片、工业设备和汽车芯片的需求疲软,压制了半导体设备制造商的整体业绩表现。一旦设备大厂的订单放缓,将不可避免影响整个半导体供应链。因此,市场担忧AMAT的疲软预期可能会波及到阿斯麦等主要光刻机供应商。</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"ASML":"阿斯麦"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1178165839","content_text":"半导体设备制造龙头阿斯麦(ASML)今日盘中股价大跌5%,引发市场广泛关注。\n分析人士认为,阿斯麦股价下跌或与半导体行业同行应用材料(AMAT)发布的疲软业绩预期有关。根据AMAT公布的数据,由于部分半导体市场需求疲软,预计其第一财季营收低于预期,仅71.5亿美元。此外,AMAT的中国市场营收占比也出现下滑,由去年同期的44%降至30%。\n尽管人工智能对高端芯片的需求持续旺盛,但其他领域如存储芯片、工业设备和汽车芯片的需求疲软,压制了半导体设备制造商的整体业绩表现。一旦设备大厂的订单放缓,将不可避免影响整个半导体供应链。因此,市场担忧AMAT的疲软预期可能会波及到阿斯麦等主要光刻机供应商。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"ASML":1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1631,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3539137238633891","authorId":"3539137238633891","name":"民國投機者","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9a63312217e0eb9908b692d2402274c2","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"idStr":"3539137238633891","authorIdStr":"3539137238633891"},"content":"昨天整个大盘都在跌，再等等吧","text":"昨天整个大盘都在跌，再等等吧","html":"昨天整个大盘都在跌，再等等吧"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":477899224585064,"gmtCreate":1757684138078,"gmtModify":1757685072713,"author":{"id":"4151362569926120","authorId":"4151362569926120","name":"mgdn","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4151362569926120","authorIdStr":"4151362569926120"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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财报当天怎么不质疑，在搞笑啊","text":"$甲骨文(ORCL)$ 财报当天怎么不质疑，在搞笑啊","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/477709502628072","repostId":"2566932964","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2566932964","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"追踪全球财经热点，精选影响您财富的资讯，投资理财必备神器！","home_visible":1,"media_name":"华尔街见闻","id":"1084101182","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e"},"pubTimestamp":1757587988,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2566932964?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2025-09-11 18:53","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"对甲骨文“炸裂大单”的质疑：全指望OpenAI、收入都在长期、能赚钱吗、有钱建吗？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2566932964","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"爆发式RPO增长：全部押注AI及OpenAI。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ORCL\">甲骨文</a>最新发布的财报让市场陷入一种矛盾的狂热。</p><p>一方面，公司当期收入和短期指引双双不及预期；另一方面，其剩余履约价值（RPO，即积压订单）一夜之间暴增至“令人瞠目结舌”的4550亿美元。如此大幅的增长，几乎全部由四份多亿美元合同推动，其中国内外分析普遍认为最大份额与OpenAI的长期云服务合同直接相关。</p><p>与此同时，最新消息让这笔神秘的巨额RPO浮出水面：9月10日，据报道，OpenAI已签署合同，<strong>在未来约五年内从甲骨文购买价值3000亿美元的计算能力，这意味着OpenAI每年平均需要向甲骨文支付约600亿美元。</strong></p><p>对于投资者而言，看懂这组数据背后的真正含义至关重要。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">摩根大通</a>在10日的研报中表示，市场可能忽略了几个核心问题：这份史诗级订单的客户是否过于集中（尤其是对OpenAI的依赖）？绝大部分收入是否遥遥无期？这些AI订单的利润率究竟如何？以及，为了支撑这些订单，甲骨文是否有足够的资金进行天文数字般的基础设施建设？这些问题直接关系到甲骨文未来的盈利能力和现金流健康，是投资者在狂热中必须冷静思考的关键。</p><h2 id=\"id_2196333389\">爆发式RPO增长：全部押注AI及OpenAI</h2><p>甲骨文第一财季最引人注目的无疑是其RPO的惊人增长。4550亿美元的数字意味着单季增加了约3170亿美元的未来业务，同比增幅高达359%。公司首席执行官Safra Catz向分析师表示，该季度公司与三位不同的客户签署了合同。她强调：</p><blockquote><p>我们已经与人工智能领域的巨头们签署了重要的云合同，包括OpenAI、xAI、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/META\">Meta</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">英伟达</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMD\">AMD</a>以及许多其他公司。</p></blockquote><p>而最新报道披露了这笔让市场疯狂的履约：9月10日， OpenAI已签署合同，<strong>在未来约五年内从甲骨文购买价值3000亿美元的算力</strong>。该协议将从2027年开始执行，所需的4.5GW电力容量相当于两座胡佛水坝的发电量，足以供应约400万户家庭用电。</p><p>需要注意的是，OpenAI是一家仍在亏损的初创公司，其在6月披露的年化收入约为100亿美元，<strong>这远低于其为该协议每年平均需要支付的600亿美元。</strong>因此，这笔交易的成功，完全建立在ChatGPT能够持续其爆炸性增长，并被全球数十亿用户以及主要企业和政府广泛采用的假设之上。</p><p>摩根大通分析师表示，新增RPO中大部分属于长期履约义务，<strong>而大约只有10%属于短期RPO（即未来一年内将确认的收入），这意味着短期履约合同额环比几乎没有增长，大部分收入将在遥远的未来才能得到确认。</strong><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">摩根士丹利</a>的股票研究团队在10日的研报中也预计，在这笔高达4550亿美元的RPO中，只有约10%会在未来12个月内确认为收入。</p><p>虽然OpenAI的增长非同寻常，但它也正面临日益增长的压力，包括昂贵的人才争夺战、与<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">微软</a>紧张的合作关系谈判，以及一项正在接受两个州监管机构审查的营利性重组。对OpenAI而言，这是一次对其未来增长的激进赌博；而对甲骨文来说，这意味着将未来收入的很大一部分集中于单一客户，这对双方的执行力和市场前景都提出了严峻考验。</p><h2 id=\"id_599282658\">短期财务承压，指引不及预期</h2><p>与积压订单的<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002296\">辉煌</a>形成鲜明对比的是甲骨文疲软的即期业绩和短期展望。第一财季总收入按固定汇率计算增长11%，低于市场普遍预期的13%。其中，云服务和许可支持收入增长14%（固定汇率），也低于16%的共识预期。</p><p>更令市场担忧的是，公司对第二财季的总收入增长指引为12-14%，低于市场预期的15%；总云收入增长指引为32-36%，同样低于预期的37%。分析师在报告中认为，<strong>这反映出新增的大部分RPO属于长期合同，对近期的财务贡献有限。</strong></p><p><strong>与此同时，甲骨文的自由现金流也因巨大的资本支出而承压。</strong>第一财季自由现金流为负3.62亿美元，远低于市场预期的12.71亿美元。为支持云基础设施（OCI）的建设，公司将2026财年的资本支出指引上调100亿美元至350亿美元，这预示着其自由现金流在未来一段时间内将继续面临压力。</p><h2 id=\"id_175938248\">利润与增长的权衡</h2><p>甲骨文正在进行一场典型的“以利润换增长”的豪赌。摩根大通认为，新增的大部分订单与AI模型训练有关，这类业务的利润率相对较低，可能会在长期内拖累营业利润的增长速度，使其慢于收入增长。</p><p>基于这一判断，该行预计，在甲骨文发布财报后，<strong>市场对其未来数年收入的普遍预期将会上调，但每股收益（EPS）的预期变动将微乎其微，而自由现金流（FCF）的预期则会下调。</strong></p><p>甲骨文将2026财年的营业利润增长指引设定为“中双位数”，略高于市场目前约12%的增长预期。摩根大通认为，这可能更多反映了近期裁员所带来的成本节约效应，而非来自业务本身的高利润增长。</p><h2 id=\"id_630311960\">摩根大通维持中性评级，上调目标价</h2><p>尽管存在诸多疑问和短期压力，摩根大通承认甲骨文在获取OCI业务方面取得了“令人印象深刻的成就”，并认可其在AI领域的长期潜力。该行将甲骨文的目标价从210美元上调至270美元，主要理由是提升了对OCI业务的多年增长轨迹预期。</p><p>然而，该行维持对甲骨文的“中性”评级，认为当前的风险与回报“趋于平衡”。虽然AI相关的积极数据点可能会在短期内主导市场讨论，但投资者最终需要关注利润率和现金流等基本面问题。甲骨文的成功取决于其能否高效地建设数据中心容量、维持OCI订单的增长势头，并成功消化此前收购的Cerner业务。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>对甲骨文“炸裂大单”的质疑：全指望OpenAI、收入都在长期、能赚钱吗、有钱建吗？</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n对甲骨文“炸裂大单”的质疑：全指望OpenAI、收入都在长期、能赚钱吗、有钱建吗？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2025-09-11 18:53 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3755415><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>甲骨文最新发布的财报让市场陷入一种矛盾的狂热。一方面，公司当期收入和短期指引双双不及预期；另一方面，其剩余履约价值（RPO，即积压订单）一夜之间暴增至“令人瞠目结舌”的4550亿美元。如此大幅的增长，几乎全部由四份多亿美元合同推动，其中国内外分析普遍认为最大份额与OpenAI的长期云服务合同直接相关。与此同时，最新消息让这笔神秘的巨额RPO浮出水面：9月10日，据报道，OpenAI已签署合同，在...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3755415\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5a763433a3b9770e33abe759e6bf88d9","relate_stocks":{"ORCL":"甲骨文"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3755415","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2566932964","content_text":"甲骨文最新发布的财报让市场陷入一种矛盾的狂热。一方面，公司当期收入和短期指引双双不及预期；另一方面，其剩余履约价值（RPO，即积压订单）一夜之间暴增至“令人瞠目结舌”的4550亿美元。如此大幅的增长，几乎全部由四份多亿美元合同推动，其中国内外分析普遍认为最大份额与OpenAI的长期云服务合同直接相关。与此同时，最新消息让这笔神秘的巨额RPO浮出水面：9月10日，据报道，OpenAI已签署合同，在未来约五年内从甲骨文购买价值3000亿美元的计算能力，这意味着OpenAI每年平均需要向甲骨文支付约600亿美元。对于投资者而言，看懂这组数据背后的真正含义至关重要。摩根大通在10日的研报中表示，市场可能忽略了几个核心问题：这份史诗级订单的客户是否过于集中（尤其是对OpenAI的依赖）？绝大部分收入是否遥遥无期？这些AI订单的利润率究竟如何？以及，为了支撑这些订单，甲骨文是否有足够的资金进行天文数字般的基础设施建设？这些问题直接关系到甲骨文未来的盈利能力和现金流健康，是投资者在狂热中必须冷静思考的关键。爆发式RPO增长：全部押注AI及OpenAI甲骨文第一财季最引人注目的无疑是其RPO的惊人增长。4550亿美元的数字意味着单季增加了约3170亿美元的未来业务，同比增幅高达359%。公司首席执行官Safra Catz向分析师表示，该季度公司与三位不同的客户签署了合同。她强调：我们已经与人工智能领域的巨头们签署了重要的云合同，包括OpenAI、xAI、Meta、英伟达、AMD以及许多其他公司。而最新报道披露了这笔让市场疯狂的履约：9月10日， OpenAI已签署合同，在未来约五年内从甲骨文购买价值3000亿美元的算力。该协议将从2027年开始执行，所需的4.5GW电力容量相当于两座胡佛水坝的发电量，足以供应约400万户家庭用电。需要注意的是，OpenAI是一家仍在亏损的初创公司，其在6月披露的年化收入约为100亿美元，这远低于其为该协议每年平均需要支付的600亿美元。因此，这笔交易的成功，完全建立在ChatGPT能够持续其爆炸性增长，并被全球数十亿用户以及主要企业和政府广泛采用的假设之上。摩根大通分析师表示，新增RPO中大部分属于长期履约义务，而大约只有10%属于短期RPO（即未来一年内将确认的收入），这意味着短期履约合同额环比几乎没有增长，大部分收入将在遥远的未来才能得到确认。摩根士丹利的股票研究团队在10日的研报中也预计，在这笔高达4550亿美元的RPO中，只有约10%会在未来12个月内确认为收入。虽然OpenAI的增长非同寻常，但它也正面临日益增长的压力，包括昂贵的人才争夺战、与微软紧张的合作关系谈判，以及一项正在接受两个州监管机构审查的营利性重组。对OpenAI而言，这是一次对其未来增长的激进赌博；而对甲骨文来说，这意味着将未来收入的很大一部分集中于单一客户，这对双方的执行力和市场前景都提出了严峻考验。短期财务承压，指引不及预期与积压订单的辉煌形成鲜明对比的是甲骨文疲软的即期业绩和短期展望。第一财季总收入按固定汇率计算增长11%，低于市场普遍预期的13%。其中，云服务和许可支持收入增长14%（固定汇率），也低于16%的共识预期。更令市场担忧的是，公司对第二财季的总收入增长指引为12-14%，低于市场预期的15%；总云收入增长指引为32-36%，同样低于预期的37%。分析师在报告中认为，这反映出新增的大部分RPO属于长期合同，对近期的财务贡献有限。与此同时，甲骨文的自由现金流也因巨大的资本支出而承压。第一财季自由现金流为负3.62亿美元，远低于市场预期的12.71亿美元。为支持云基础设施（OCI）的建设，公司将2026财年的资本支出指引上调100亿美元至350亿美元，这预示着其自由现金流在未来一段时间内将继续面临压力。利润与增长的权衡甲骨文正在进行一场典型的“以利润换增长”的豪赌。摩根大通认为，新增的大部分订单与AI模型训练有关，这类业务的利润率相对较低，可能会在长期内拖累营业利润的增长速度，使其慢于收入增长。基于这一判断，该行预计，在甲骨文发布财报后，市场对其未来数年收入的普遍预期将会上调，但每股收益（EPS）的预期变动将微乎其微，而自由现金流（FCF）的预期则会下调。甲骨文将2026财年的营业利润增长指引设定为“中双位数”，略高于市场目前约12%的增长预期。摩根大通认为，这可能更多反映了近期裁员所带来的成本节约效应，而非来自业务本身的高利润增长。摩根大通维持中性评级，上调目标价尽管存在诸多疑问和短期压力，摩根大通承认甲骨文在获取OCI业务方面取得了“令人印象深刻的成就”，并认可其在AI领域的长期潜力。该行将甲骨文的目标价从210美元上调至270美元，主要理由是提升了对OCI业务的多年增长轨迹预期。然而，该行维持对甲骨文的“中性”评级，认为当前的风险与回报“趋于平衡”。虽然AI相关的积极数据点可能会在短期内主导市场讨论，但投资者最终需要关注利润率和现金流等基本面问题。甲骨文的成功取决于其能否高效地建设数据中心容量、维持OCI订单的增长势头，并成功消化此前收购的Cerner业务。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"ORCL":1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":693,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":456914060439664,"gmtCreate":1752588636645,"gmtModify":1752588637815,"author":{"id":"4151362569926120","authorId":"4151362569926120","name":"mgdn","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4151362569926120","authorIdStr":"4151362569926120"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UNH\">$联合健康(UNH)$&nbsp;</a> 联合做空[贱笑]&nbsp;&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UNH\">$联合健康(UNH)$&nbsp;</a> 联合做空[贱笑]&nbsp;&nbsp;","text":"$联合健康(UNH)$ 联合做空[贱笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/456914060439664","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":205,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":449783952122592,"gmtCreate":1750836787905,"gmtModify":1750836789737,"author":{"id":"4151362569926120","authorId":"4151362569926120","name":"mgdn","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4151362569926120","authorIdStr":"4151362569926120"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"泡沫而已，本来就可以交易","listText":"泡沫而已，本来就可以交易","text":"泡沫而已，本来就可以交易","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/449783952122592","repostId":"1161885393","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1161885393","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1750832520,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1161885393?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2025-06-25 14:22","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"国泰君安国际正式获批提供虚拟资产交易服务，为中资券商首家","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1161885393","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"6月25日，$国泰君安国际(01788)$盘初涨幅扩大至逾70%！正式获批提供虚拟资产交易服务，为中资券商首家。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>6月25日，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01788\">国泰君安国际</a>午后涨幅扩大至150%！正式获批提供虚拟资产交易服务，为中资券商首家。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/68d1bd99099d43a27c908f3c3936d7c3\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"240\"/></p><p>6月25日，国泰君安国际港交所公告称，2025年6月24日，公司之全资附属公司国泰君安证券（香港）有限公司正式获香港证券及期货事务监察委员会批准，将现有第1类（证券交易）受规管活动的牌照升级为透过在香港证监会持牌平台上开立综合账户的安排下，提供虚拟资产交易服务。本公司股东及潜在投资者于买卖本公司证券时务请审慎行事。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c858679ea3cf4f840bd4f0f91ccd9df3\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"844\" tg-height=\"772\"/></p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>国泰君安国际正式获批提供虚拟资产交易服务，为中资券商首家</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; 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style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2025-06-25 14:22</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>6月25日，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01788\">国泰君安国际</a>午后涨幅扩大至150%！正式获批提供虚拟资产交易服务，为中资券商首家。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/68d1bd99099d43a27c908f3c3936d7c3\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"240\"/></p><p>6月25日，国泰君安国际港交所公告称，2025年6月24日，公司之全资附属公司国泰君安证券（香港）有限公司正式获香港证券及期货事务监察委员会批准，将现有第1类（证券交易）受规管活动的牌照升级为透过在香港证监会持牌平台上开立综合账户的安排下，提供虚拟资产交易服务。本公司股东及潜在投资者于买卖本公司证券时务请审慎行事。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c858679ea3cf4f840bd4f0f91ccd9df3\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"844\" tg-height=\"772\"/></p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5d8fb95e65f042f352c6313989391357","relate_stocks":{"01788":"国泰君安国际","BK1147":"投资银行业与经纪业"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1161885393","content_text":"6月25日，国泰君安国际午后涨幅扩大至150%！正式获批提供虚拟资产交易服务，为中资券商首家。6月25日，国泰君安国际港交所公告称，2025年6月24日，公司之全资附属公司国泰君安证券（香港）有限公司正式获香港证券及期货事务监察委员会批准，将现有第1类（证券交易）受规管活动的牌照升级为透过在香港证监会持牌平台上开立综合账户的安排下，提供虚拟资产交易服务。本公司股东及潜在投资者于买卖本公司证券时务请审慎行事。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"01788":1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":434,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}