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悠闲54321

悠闲54321

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0勋章

12-30 17:04

$壁仞科技(06082)$ 说是开在22-25元

2025-12-26

我说10万大关，说呗😀

华尔街老将：黄金和标普500指数将双双冲向10000大关

2025-12-24

$卧安机器人(06600)$ 最近破发的有点多

2025-12-24

哈哈哈哈，还得降

北京四部门联合印发通知，进一步优化调整房地产相关政策

2025-12-22

$翰思艾泰-B(03378)$ 基本没赚😀🌹

2025-12-19

$翰思艾泰-B(03378)$ 中了100股

2025-12-19

赶紧卖出做空特斯拉啊，你还可以加10倍杠杆做空，你发财啦

特斯拉车门安全引发关注美国车主开始自备逃生工具、换车

2025-12-17

$Medline Inc(MDLN)$ 才中18股

2025-12-17

$智汇矿业(02546)$ 这个能吃点肉吧

2025-12-16

$HASHKEY HLDGS(03887)$ 有钱赚吗

2025-12-11

$希迪智驾(03881)$ 智驾的公司太多了，大部分骗钱的！不打

2025-12-11

$智汇矿业(02546)$ 我会全力打新

2025-12-10

$京东工业(07618)$ 幸亏没打[龇牙] 鸡肋

2025-12-10

做空又鼻青脸肿的了吧？

期权策略 | 大空头 Burry 这次瞄准特斯拉，第二次沽空会成功吗？

2025-12-10

$HASHKEY HLDGS(03887)$ 这只股票如果中签，我留着！figr我中签了900股，赚了1万多美元，当是获利回吐了！老虎最近没有美股申购了😅

2025-12-09

$HASHKEY HLDGS(03887)$ 申购一下

2025-12-08

$宝济药业-B(02659)$

2025-12-07

$京东工业(07618)$ 申购热情不高啊？

2025-12-07

$特斯拉(TSLA)$ 一个个穷鬼没事就评论世界首富如何画饼，挺可笑的！

2025-11-28

$纳芯微(02676)$ 有a股打必亏

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16:47","market":"fut","language":"zh","title":"华尔街老将：黄金和标普500指数将双双冲向10000大关","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1106149044","media":"智通财经","summary":"先看盈利，再看市盈率。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>华尔街老将埃德·亚德尼(Ed Yardeni)一直是本十年最乐观的市场叙事之一——“咆哮的二十年代”的先行倡导者。他认为，这一时代将由经济韧性、强劲的企业盈利，以及与数字革命和人工智能相关的生产率提升所驱动。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">在近期一次访谈中，亚德尼重申了他的两大预测：标普500指数在2026年达到7700点，并在2029年达到10000点。但更引人注目的是他并行的另一个预测：黄金价格也可能在本十年末达到每盎司10000美元。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>标普10000点路线图：先看盈利，再看市盈率</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">亚德尼的10000点预测并非一个空洞的口号，而是一条基于盈利和估值的路径。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">他的出发点是标普500指数今年的每股经营盈利大约在270美元附近，明年将升至约300-310美元(他指出市场共识预期已在此区间)。在此基础上，他的长期框架认为盈利可以持续显著增长——每年增加“数十美元”——到2030年可能达到约500美元每股。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">如果2029年末的市场展望2030年盈利，并应用大约20倍的市盈率(他的粗略区间为18-22倍)，则会接近那个标题数字：500美元 × 20 = 10000点</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">在他看来，关键问题不在于盈利能否增长——亚德尼认为在利润率保持稳健的情况下这是可能的。更大的波动因素是估值倍数，当经济衰退概率上升时，市盈率往往会收缩。他的论点隐含了一个假设：经济将继续吸收冲击而不会深度下滑。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">在完整访谈中，亚德尼更深入地探讨了是什么支撑着高估值倍数——以及什么会迫使估值重置。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>为何他认为“咆哮的二十年代”依然成立</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">亚德尼认为，他在本十年初提出的这个“咆哮的二十年代”得到了最简单的记分牌指标支持：经济产出和消费保持强劲，市场屡创新高。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">在这种韧性之下，他非常重视生产率：数字经济正变得更快、更便宜、更具扩展性。在他看来，人工智能与其说是一种独立的狂热，不如说是长达数十年演进的下一阶段，从大型机到个人电脑，再到云计算，再到人工智能，使公司能够以更少的资源做更多的事，并支撑更高的盈利能力。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">他也谈到了政策不确定性，包括关税问题。市场已有时间“适应”贸易风险，亚德尼暗示，政治激励最终可能倾向于回调极端做法。尽管如此，他也承认围绕行政权力能走多远以及法院介入可能发生什么存在不确定性。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>AI泡沫恐惧：为何今天不像1999年</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">亚德尼对AI“泡沫”辩论的看法异常直接：在他看来，如此多的投资者在辩论泡沫风险这一事实本身，可能表明我们并未处于真正的狂热顶峰。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">他将今天与1990年代末进行了对比。据他回忆，那时投机行为更被广泛接受，质疑声较少。而现在，AI龙头股可能在负面催化剂下大幅下跌，随后又因基本面重新发挥作用而企稳。他以今年围绕与中国相关的AI发展叙事引发的市场波动为例：市场反应剧烈，但主要公司重申其支出计划保持不变，因为需求仍然存在。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">他更重要的观点是，AI领域的领导地位并非单一公司的故事。这是一场在超大规模厂商及芯片/软件生态系统之间持续进行的竞争赛跑——他称之为“一场永无止境的赛马”——这既会制造波动，也会带来持续的投资。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>资产配置：不要“超配”已主导指数的部分</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">亚德尼一个更实用的观点是关于投资组合构建，而非预测。鉴于科技和通信服务板块在标普500指数中已占据很大份额，在经历大幅上涨后，他对建议投资者简单“超配科技”持谨慎态度。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">相反，他倾向于在由巨型股主导的领域保持市场权重，同时在其他领域寻求多元化。他提到了医疗保健等领域(他认为该板块相对低迷且可能改善)，以及工业和金融等周期性板块。他也在AI基础设施建设的背景下讨论了能源——如果AI需要巨大的算力，它就需要巨大的电力。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">这是一个重要的微妙之处：亚德尼看涨，但他并非主张单一押注的投资组合。他主张参与主导趋势，同时不增加集中度风险。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>黄金：为何他改变了立场——以及为何“10000”会被谈及</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">亚德尼传统上不愿对黄金做出强力预测，因为黄金不产生现金流，难以用传统模型估值。但他表示，价格走势和资金流动已足够改变他的看法，他现在看好黄金作为多元化工具——甚至建议投资者超配黄金。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">他的需求论述是双重的：</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">1. 央行增持，特别是那些寻求从与美元挂钩的储备中多元化出来的国家。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">2. 关键地区(如中国和印度)的家庭/投资者需求。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">由此，亚德尼提出了一个引人深思的观点：在非常长的时期内，黄金和标普500指数的趋势经常相互呼应。这并不意味着它们月复一月地同步运动(它们经常不同步)。但这也部分解释了为何他可以设想一个世界：标普500指数向10000点移动的同时，黄金也可能向10000美元移动。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">即使这个具体目标听起来极端，其投资组合含义更为清晰：在地缘政治分裂、储备多元化和技术快速变革的时代，亚德尼将黄金视为一种战略对冲工具。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>需要关注什么(真正的波动因素)</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">如果亚德尼是正确的，那么故事就不仅仅是“股市上涨”。看涨情景取决于几个重大变量总体上保持支撑：</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">1. 没有衰退 / 没有导致估值重置的重大盈利下滑。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">2. AI转化为可衡量的生产率提升，而不仅仅是资本支出炒作。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">3. 政策和地缘政治保持破坏性(合理的基线情景)但未达到系统崩溃的程度。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">4. 市场集中度风险通过广度扩展或板块轮动得到管理。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">这就是为什么他的展望最好被理解为一个框架：盈利增长加上仍然可观的估值倍数可以使指数达到10000点——但这条道路很可能包含波动、轮动和周期性的叙事冲击。</p></body></html>","source":"highlight_zhitongcaijin","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>华尔街老将：黄金和标普500指数将双双冲向10000大关</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n华尔街老将：黄金和标普500指数将双双冲向10000大关\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2025-12-26 16:47 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1385991.html><strong>智通财经</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>华尔街老将埃德·亚德尼(Ed Yardeni)一直是本十年最乐观的市场叙事之一——“咆哮的二十年代”的先行倡导者。他认为，这一时代将由经济韧性、强劲的企业盈利，以及与数字革命和人工智能相关的生产率提升所驱动。在近期一次访谈中，亚德尼重申了他的两大预测：标普500指数在2026年达到7700点，并在2029年达到10000点。但更引人注目的是他并行的另一个预测：黄金价格也可能在本十年末达到每盎司...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1385991.html\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2578fef036607345dce47cc401e172a3","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1385991.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/6ca2dcdccfa2217fb20a0351f4efe814","article_id":"1106149044","content_text":"华尔街老将埃德·亚德尼(Ed Yardeni)一直是本十年最乐观的市场叙事之一——“咆哮的二十年代”的先行倡导者。他认为，这一时代将由经济韧性、强劲的企业盈利，以及与数字革命和人工智能相关的生产率提升所驱动。在近期一次访谈中，亚德尼重申了他的两大预测：标普500指数在2026年达到7700点，并在2029年达到10000点。但更引人注目的是他并行的另一个预测：黄金价格也可能在本十年末达到每盎司10000美元。标普10000点路线图：先看盈利，再看市盈率亚德尼的10000点预测并非一个空洞的口号，而是一条基于盈利和估值的路径。他的出发点是标普500指数今年的每股经营盈利大约在270美元附近，明年将升至约300-310美元(他指出市场共识预期已在此区间)。在此基础上，他的长期框架认为盈利可以持续显著增长——每年增加“数十美元”——到2030年可能达到约500美元每股。如果2029年末的市场展望2030年盈利，并应用大约20倍的市盈率(他的粗略区间为18-22倍)，则会接近那个标题数字：500美元 × 20 = 10000点在他看来，关键问题不在于盈利能否增长——亚德尼认为在利润率保持稳健的情况下这是可能的。更大的波动因素是估值倍数，当经济衰退概率上升时，市盈率往往会收缩。他的论点隐含了一个假设：经济将继续吸收冲击而不会深度下滑。在完整访谈中，亚德尼更深入地探讨了是什么支撑着高估值倍数——以及什么会迫使估值重置。为何他认为“咆哮的二十年代”依然成立亚德尼认为，他在本十年初提出的这个“咆哮的二十年代”得到了最简单的记分牌指标支持：经济产出和消费保持强劲，市场屡创新高。在这种韧性之下，他非常重视生产率：数字经济正变得更快、更便宜、更具扩展性。在他看来，人工智能与其说是一种独立的狂热，不如说是长达数十年演进的下一阶段，从大型机到个人电脑，再到云计算，再到人工智能，使公司能够以更少的资源做更多的事，并支撑更高的盈利能力。他也谈到了政策不确定性，包括关税问题。市场已有时间“适应”贸易风险，亚德尼暗示，政治激励最终可能倾向于回调极端做法。尽管如此，他也承认围绕行政权力能走多远以及法院介入可能发生什么存在不确定性。AI泡沫恐惧：为何今天不像1999年亚德尼对AI“泡沫”辩论的看法异常直接：在他看来，如此多的投资者在辩论泡沫风险这一事实本身，可能表明我们并未处于真正的狂热顶峰。他将今天与1990年代末进行了对比。据他回忆，那时投机行为更被广泛接受，质疑声较少。而现在，AI龙头股可能在负面催化剂下大幅下跌，随后又因基本面重新发挥作用而企稳。他以今年围绕与中国相关的AI发展叙事引发的市场波动为例：市场反应剧烈，但主要公司重申其支出计划保持不变，因为需求仍然存在。他更重要的观点是，AI领域的领导地位并非单一公司的故事。这是一场在超大规模厂商及芯片/软件生态系统之间持续进行的竞争赛跑——他称之为“一场永无止境的赛马”——这既会制造波动，也会带来持续的投资。资产配置：不要“超配”已主导指数的部分亚德尼一个更实用的观点是关于投资组合构建，而非预测。鉴于科技和通信服务板块在标普500指数中已占据很大份额，在经历大幅上涨后，他对建议投资者简单“超配科技”持谨慎态度。相反，他倾向于在由巨型股主导的领域保持市场权重，同时在其他领域寻求多元化。他提到了医疗保健等领域(他认为该板块相对低迷且可能改善)，以及工业和金融等周期性板块。他也在AI基础设施建设的背景下讨论了能源——如果AI需要巨大的算力，它就需要巨大的电力。这是一个重要的微妙之处：亚德尼看涨，但他并非主张单一押注的投资组合。他主张参与主导趋势，同时不增加集中度风险。黄金：为何他改变了立场——以及为何“10000”会被谈及亚德尼传统上不愿对黄金做出强力预测，因为黄金不产生现金流，难以用传统模型估值。但他表示，价格走势和资金流动已足够改变他的看法，他现在看好黄金作为多元化工具——甚至建议投资者超配黄金。他的需求论述是双重的：1. 央行增持，特别是那些寻求从与美元挂钩的储备中多元化出来的国家。2. 关键地区(如中国和印度)的家庭/投资者需求。由此，亚德尼提出了一个引人深思的观点：在非常长的时期内，黄金和标普500指数的趋势经常相互呼应。这并不意味着它们月复一月地同步运动(它们经常不同步)。但这也部分解释了为何他可以设想一个世界：标普500指数向10000点移动的同时，黄金也可能向10000美元移动。即使这个具体目标听起来极端，其投资组合含义更为清晰：在地缘政治分裂、储备多元化和技术快速变革的时代，亚德尼将黄金视为一种战略对冲工具。需要关注什么(真正的波动因素)如果亚德尼是正确的，那么故事就不仅仅是“股市上涨”。看涨情景取决于几个重大变量总体上保持支撑：1. 没有衰退 / 没有导致估值重置的重大盈利下滑。2. AI转化为可衡量的生产率提升，而不仅仅是资本支出炒作。3. 政策和地缘政治保持破坏性(合理的基线情景)但未达到系统崩溃的程度。4. 市场集中度风险通过广度扩展或板块轮动得到管理。这就是为什么他的展望最好被理解为一个框架：盈利增长加上仍然可观的估值倍数可以使指数达到10000点——但这条道路很可能包含波动、轮动和周期性的叙事冲击。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"GCmain":2,".SPX":2}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":141,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":514223462937760,"gmtCreate":1766573266335,"gmtModify":1766573268400,"author":{"id":"4185497195462182","authorId":"4185497195462182","name":"悠闲54321","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4e959ff00bccf19f014b59a4a97b5cc8","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4185497195462182","idStr":"4185497195462182"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/06600\">$卧安机器人(06600)$</a>&nbsp; 最近破发的有点多","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/06600\">$卧安机器人(06600)$</a>&nbsp; 最近破发的有点多","text":"$卧安机器人(06600)$ 最近破发的有点多","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/612693cc1409e1fb493d5a5e68fc0ee6","width":"916","height":"1361"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":5,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/514223462937760","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1024,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3494682801942270","authorId":"3494682801942270","name":"即将拥有人鱼线的pdd","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c04848ea527ccedec7bf014e0d439bd1","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3494682801942270","idStr":"3494682801942270"},"content":"我也中了，不过我中的都破发了","text":"我也中了，不过我中的都破发了","html":"我也中了，不过我中的都破发了"}],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":514413453796120,"gmtCreate":1766565951836,"gmtModify":1766565954379,"author":{"id":"4185497195462182","authorId":"4185497195462182","name":"悠闲54321","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4e959ff00bccf19f014b59a4a97b5cc8","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4185497195462182","idStr":"4185497195462182"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"哈哈哈哈，还得降","listText":"哈哈哈哈，还得降","text":"哈哈哈哈，还得降","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/514413453796120","repostId":"1134235707","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1134235707","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1766565542,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1134235707?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2025-12-24 16:39","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"北京四部门联合印发通知，进一步优化调整房地产相关政策","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1134235707","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"进一步优化调整住房限购政策。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>北京市贯彻落实中央经济工作会议精神，着力稳定房地产市场。12月24日，市住房城乡建设委、市发展改革委、人民银行北京市分行、北京住房公积金管理中心等4部门联合印发《关于进一步优化调整本市房地产相关政策的通知》（以下简称《通知》），自2025年12月24日起施行。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">《通知》明确，为更好满足居民刚性住房需求和多样化改善性住房需求，进一步优化调整住房限购政策。一是放宽非京籍家庭购房条件。将非京籍家庭购买五环内商品住房的社保或个税缴纳年限，由现行的“3年”调减为“2年”；购买五环外商品住房的，由现行的“2年”调减为“1年”。二是支持多子女家庭住房需求。二孩及以上的多子女家庭，可在五环内多购买一套商品住房，即：京籍多子女家庭，可在五环内购买3套商品住房；在京连续2年缴纳社保或个税的非京籍多子女家庭，可在五环内购买2套商品住房。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">《通知》明确，进一步优化个人住房信贷政策，银行业金融机构根据北京地区市场利率定价自律机制要求和本机构经营状况、客户风险状况等因素，在利率定价机制安排方面不再区分首套住房和二套住房，合理确定每笔商业性个人住房贷款的具体利率水平。关于住房贷款相关业务，可向经办银行具体咨询。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">《通知》明确，加大公积金支持住房消费力度，调整二套住房公积金贷款最低首付比例，对借款申请人（含共同申请人）使用公积金个人住房贷款购买二套住房的，最低首付款比例由不低于30%调整为不低于25%。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">《通知》还提出，为进一步优化营商环境，提升房地产投资效率，调整招拍挂拿地的房地产开发项目立项方式，由市区分级核准调整为区级备案。</p><p>截至发稿，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DUO\">房多多</a> 夜盘涨近5%，贝壳涨近2%。</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1d896ff44590301c00c55bb0f8096004\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"531\" tg-height=\"171\"/></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c51620dd037f755da6ff74b1d0656458\" tg-width=\"528\" tg-height=\"173\"/></p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>北京四部门联合印发通知，进一步优化调整房地产相关政策</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n北京四部门联合印发通知，进一步优化调整房地产相关政策\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2025-12-24 16:39</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>北京市贯彻落实中央经济工作会议精神，着力稳定房地产市场。12月24日，市住房城乡建设委、市发展改革委、人民银行北京市分行、北京住房公积金管理中心等4部门联合印发《关于进一步优化调整本市房地产相关政策的通知》（以下简称《通知》），自2025年12月24日起施行。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">《通知》明确，为更好满足居民刚性住房需求和多样化改善性住房需求，进一步优化调整住房限购政策。一是放宽非京籍家庭购房条件。将非京籍家庭购买五环内商品住房的社保或个税缴纳年限，由现行的“3年”调减为“2年”；购买五环外商品住房的，由现行的“2年”调减为“1年”。二是支持多子女家庭住房需求。二孩及以上的多子女家庭，可在五环内多购买一套商品住房，即：京籍多子女家庭，可在五环内购买3套商品住房；在京连续2年缴纳社保或个税的非京籍多子女家庭，可在五环内购买2套商品住房。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">《通知》明确，进一步优化个人住房信贷政策，银行业金融机构根据北京地区市场利率定价自律机制要求和本机构经营状况、客户风险状况等因素，在利率定价机制安排方面不再区分首套住房和二套住房，合理确定每笔商业性个人住房贷款的具体利率水平。关于住房贷款相关业务，可向经办银行具体咨询。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">《通知》明确，加大公积金支持住房消费力度，调整二套住房公积金贷款最低首付比例，对借款申请人（含共同申请人）使用公积金个人住房贷款购买二套住房的，最低首付款比例由不低于30%调整为不低于25%。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">《通知》还提出，为进一步优化营商环境，提升房地产投资效率，调整招拍挂拿地的房地产开发项目立项方式，由市区分级核准调整为区级备案。</p><p>截至发稿，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DUO\">房多多</a> 夜盘涨近5%，贝壳涨近2%。</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1d896ff44590301c00c55bb0f8096004\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"531\" tg-height=\"171\"/></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c51620dd037f755da6ff74b1d0656458\" tg-width=\"528\" tg-height=\"173\"/></p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/35add8a81a19b16a08bc998d9ed5ac72","relate_stocks":{"DUO":"房多多","000560":"我爱我家","BEKE":"贝壳"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1134235707","content_text":"北京市贯彻落实中央经济工作会议精神，着力稳定房地产市场。12月24日，市住房城乡建设委、市发展改革委、人民银行北京市分行、北京住房公积金管理中心等4部门联合印发《关于进一步优化调整本市房地产相关政策的通知》（以下简称《通知》），自2025年12月24日起施行。《通知》明确，为更好满足居民刚性住房需求和多样化改善性住房需求，进一步优化调整住房限购政策。一是放宽非京籍家庭购房条件。将非京籍家庭购买五环内商品住房的社保或个税缴纳年限，由现行的“3年”调减为“2年”；购买五环外商品住房的，由现行的“2年”调减为“1年”。二是支持多子女家庭住房需求。二孩及以上的多子女家庭，可在五环内多购买一套商品住房，即：京籍多子女家庭，可在五环内购买3套商品住房；在京连续2年缴纳社保或个税的非京籍多子女家庭，可在五环内购买2套商品住房。《通知》明确，进一步优化个人住房信贷政策，银行业金融机构根据北京地区市场利率定价自律机制要求和本机构经营状况、客户风险状况等因素，在利率定价机制安排方面不再区分首套住房和二套住房，合理确定每笔商业性个人住房贷款的具体利率水平。关于住房贷款相关业务，可向经办银行具体咨询。《通知》明确，加大公积金支持住房消费力度，调整二套住房公积金贷款最低首付比例，对借款申请人（含共同申请人）使用公积金个人住房贷款购买二套住房的，最低首付款比例由不低于30%调整为不低于25%。《通知》还提出，为进一步优化营商环境，提升房地产投资效率，调整招拍挂拿地的房地产开发项目立项方式，由市区分级核准调整为区级备案。截至发稿，房多多 夜盘涨近5%，贝壳涨近2%。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"DUO":2,"000560":2,"BEKE":2}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":170,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":513502733722896,"gmtCreate":1766393975746,"gmtModify":1766393978275,"author":{"id":"4185497195462182","authorId":"4185497195462182","name":"悠闲54321","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4e959ff00bccf19f014b59a4a97b5cc8","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4185497195462182","idStr":"4185497195462182"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03378\">$翰思艾泰-B(03378)$</a>&nbsp; 基本没赚😀🌹","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03378\">$翰思艾泰-B(03378)$</a>&nbsp; 基本没赚😀🌹","text":"$翰思艾泰-B(03378)$ 基本没赚😀🌹","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/513502733722896","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":424,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":512430441976648,"gmtCreate":1766132130377,"gmtModify":1766132136615,"author":{"id":"4185497195462182","authorId":"4185497195462182","name":"悠闲54321","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4e959ff00bccf19f014b59a4a97b5cc8","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4185497195462182","idStr":"4185497195462182"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03378\">$翰思艾泰-B(03378)$</a>&nbsp; 中了100股","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03378\">$翰思艾泰-B(03378)$</a>&nbsp; 中了100股","text":"$翰思艾泰-B(03378)$ 中了100股","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6c7e5a315b1e43492d60e477d41f4df6","width":"903","height":"1367"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/512430441976648","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":502,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":512391574724744,"gmtCreate":1766122643292,"gmtModify":1766122655794,"author":{"id":"4185497195462182","authorId":"4185497195462182","name":"悠闲54321","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4e959ff00bccf19f014b59a4a97b5cc8","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4185497195462182","idStr":"4185497195462182"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"赶紧卖出做空特斯拉啊，你还可以加10倍杠杆做空，你发财啦","listText":"赶紧卖出做空特斯拉啊，你还可以加10倍杠杆做空，你发财啦","text":"赶紧卖出做空特斯拉啊，你还可以加10倍杠杆做空，你发财啦","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/94749c37c8ea830d2317d98963af4568"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/512391574724744","repostId":"2592909349","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2592909349","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1766063688,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2592909349?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2025-12-18 21:14","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"特斯拉车门安全引发关注 美国车主开始自备逃生工具、换车","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2592909349","media":"凤凰网科技","summary":"吉特尔的儿子因Model Y车门故障受困凤凰网科技讯 北京时间12月18日，据彭博社报道，在发生多起因特斯拉车门故障导致消费者困于车中的事件后，美国的一些车主开始自行采取安全措施，其中包括自备逃生工具和换车。随着多起乘客因无法逃离特斯拉车辆而导致重伤或死亡的事件发生，这一问题变得尤为紧迫。美国国家公路交通安全管理局已对部分Model Y车型车门是否存在缺陷展开安全调查。","content":"<html><body><p><img src=\"https://x0.ifengimg.com/ucms/2025_51/1EF5BC085B4D46320A748B9E558B1CBEA88E8A26_size563_w1290_h866.png\"/></p><p>吉特尔的儿子因Model Y车门故障受困</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600716\">凤凰</a>网科技讯 北京时间12月18日，据彭博社报道，在发生多起<strong>因<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>车门故障导致消费者困于车中的事件后，美国的一些车主开始自行采取安全措施，其中包括自备逃生工具和换车。</strong></p><p>今年5月，艾琳·吉特尔(Erin Geter)刚刚蹒跚学步的幼儿因特斯拉电动车门断电而被困车内。几周后，她出现在本田经销店，购买了一辆新的家庭用车。</p><p>“这段经历让我心有余悸。”这位来自美国北卡罗来纳州亨特斯维尔的39岁母亲说。如今，她更愿意用本田CR-V接送孩子，因为这款车配备的是传统机械门把手。</p><p><strong>早在今年<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600381\">春天</a>儿子被困之前，吉特尔就已为她的2021款Model Y购买了破窗器。但当意外发生时，这个工具同样被锁在车内。</strong></p><p><img src=\"https://x0.ifengimg.com/ucms/2025_51/1967D00B334D3125D725E1D8EF7D1A0EA369694C_size554_w1210_h806.png\"/></p><p>吉特尔的破窗器被锁在车中</p><p>在随后的几分钟内，她接连拨打了数通电话：先是打给丈夫，接着联系了父亲。他们通常可以通过特斯拉手机应用远程解锁车辆。<strong>但当特斯拉低压电池没电时，这项功能便会失效。</strong>吉特尔继而联系了特斯拉，但对方同样未能提供即时帮助，最终她拨打了911报警电话。</p><p>据吉特尔回忆，当救援人员抵达现场并尝试破窗时，其中一扇车门突然自行弹开，这才让她接触到被困的儿子。</p><p>“如果那扇门没有自动弹开，我真不知道该怎么办，”她说，“那一刻我感到无比无助。”</p><p><strong>车主开始警惕</strong></p><p>吉特尔的经历是一个尤为极端的例子，反映出特斯拉车主如今正为解决一个多数人从未想过的问题所采取措施，这个问题就是：车门出现故障时会无法打开。有些人购买了破窗器，以防需要从车窗逃生。<strong>网约车司机会主动向乘客展示特斯拉内置机械开门装置的位置</strong>，不同车型的装置差异很大。</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">亚马逊</a>和Etsy上的卖家开始出售应急拉绳等第三方配件，以便让这些手动释放装置更容易使用。与此同时，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RDDT\">Reddit</a>论坛和YouTube视频也出现了许多视频，提供一步步安装教程。已有近3.5万人在《消费者报告》发起的一项线上请愿书上签名，呼吁汽车制造商修复电子车门的问题。</p><p>随着多起乘客因无法逃离特斯拉车辆而导致重伤或死亡的事件发生，这一问题变得尤为紧迫。彭博社的调查发现，自2018年以来，美国汽车安全监管机构已收到超过140起消费者投诉，涉及不同型号特斯拉的门把手卡住、无法打开或其他故障，尤其是在车辆碰撞后。美国国家公路交通安全管理局已对部分Model Y车型车门是否存在缺陷展开安全调查。特斯拉首席设计师已表示，公司正在重新设计标志性隐藏式门把手的机械结构。</p><p><img src=\"https://x0.ifengimg.com/ucms/2025_51/4AC8D0E9B31E64765248EB438448D3AC931A5EDA_size468_w1210_h806.png\"/></p><p>特斯拉隐藏式门把手</p><p>特斯拉是电控车门和隐藏式门把手设计的先锋。近年来，这种设计在汽车行业迅速普及，成为酷炫、未来感十足的汽车设计象征。<strong>但是一旦失去电力，特斯拉的车门就会失去功能。</strong>该公司车辆内的手动开门装置有时没有任何标识，可能被藏在脚垫下面或车门储物槽中，或者只在某一排座位提供。</p><p><strong>需特斯拉指导</strong></p><p>随着特斯拉车主们逐渐意识到潜在风险，许多人表示需要特斯拉提供更明确的操作指导。</p><p>“特斯拉没有充分告知消费者如何全面操作车辆，”圣地亚哥地区居民大卫·沃德(David Ward)表示，他于2021年购买了Model 3，对这款车的其他方面很满意，“我不得不通过YouTube学习所有操作方式。”</p><p>特斯拉尚未就此作出回应，但其董事长罗宾·丹霍姆(Robyn Denholm)在最近一次采访中表示，公司对任何与安全相关的问题都高度重视。她说，很多人知道手动开门装置的位置，但特斯拉正在努力提高公众对这些位置的认知，并审视备用机械结构的设计。</p><p>“我们一直在思考，是否有更好的解决方式？”丹霍姆在10月接受彭博社采访时表示。</p><p><strong>网约车乘客担忧</strong></p><p>感到担忧的不仅仅是车主。由于特斯拉汽车在网约车和租赁车队中占据相当大的比例，车门问题也引起了乘客的关注。</p><p>田纳西州的Uber司机查德·林肯(Chad Lincoln)在自己的车发生事故后，最近从<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HTZ\">赫兹租车</a>公司租用了一辆2022款Model 3。他表示，在驾驶特斯拉的两周期间，有三次乘客询问紧急情况下如何逃生。</p><p>“我会像空乘演示安全须知那样，带他们过一遍逃生方法和拉手位置。”他说。</p><p>尽管47岁的林肯很喜欢Model 3的先进技术，但他表示，在为自己那辆报废的车寻找替代品时，他不会考虑购买特斯拉。</p><p>“机械开门装置的安全隐患对我来说非常严重，”他表示，“我高度重视所肩负的乘客安全责任。”(作者/箫雨)</p><p>更多一手新闻，欢迎下载凤凰新闻客户端订阅凤凰网科技。想看深度报道，请微信搜索“凤凰网科技”。</p></body></html>","source":"fenghuang_stock","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>特斯拉车门安全引发关注 美国车主开始自备逃生工具、换车</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n特斯拉车门安全引发关注 美国车主开始自备逃生工具、换车\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2025-12-18 21:14 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://tech.ifeng.com/c/8pByF5AgNwT><strong>凤凰网科技</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>吉特尔的儿子因Model Y车门故障受困凤凰网科技讯 北京时间12月18日，据彭博社报道，在发生多起因特斯拉车门故障导致消费者困于车中的事件后，美国的一些车主开始自行采取安全措施，其中包括自备逃生工具和换车。今年5月，艾琳·吉特尔(Erin Geter)刚刚蹒跚学步的幼儿因特斯拉电动车门断电而被困车内。几周后，她出现在本田经销店，购买了一辆新的家庭用车。“这段经历让我心有余悸。”这位来自美国...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://tech.ifeng.com/c/8pByF5AgNwT\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"LU1778281490.HKD":"HSBC GIF GLOBAL LOWER CARBON EQUITY \"AD\" (HKD) INC","LU0053666078.USD":"摩根大通基金-美国股票A（离岸）美元","LU1551013425.SGD":"Allianz Income and Growth Cl AMg2 DIS H2-SGD","BK4574":"无人驾驶","LU2360106780.USD":"BGF WORLD TECHNOLOGY \"A4\" (USD) INC","LU0082616367.USD":"摩根大通美国科技A（dist）","LU1066051225.USD":"HSBC GIF GLOBAL EQUITY VOLATILITY FOCUSED \"AC\" (USD) ACC","SG9999015986.USD":"LIONGLOBAL DISRUPTIVE INNOVATION \"I\" (USD) ACC","LU2756315318.SGD":"ALLIANZ INCOME AND GROWTH \"AMG\" (SGDHDG) INC A","LU0348723411.USD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL HI-TECH GROWTH \"A\" (USD) INC","LU2023250330.USD":"ALLIANZ INCOME AND GROWTH \"AMG\" (USD) INC","BK4581":"高盛持仓","LU1629891620.HKD":"ALLIANZ INCOME AND GROWTH \"AMG2\" (H2-HKD) INC","BK4543":"AI","LU1720051017.SGD":"Allianz Global Artificial Intelligence AT Acc H2-SGD","IE00BK4W5L77.USD":"HSBC GLOBAL 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鸡肋","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/509239462027512","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":680,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":509222396125968,"gmtCreate":1765348435595,"gmtModify":1765348437664,"author":{"id":"4185497195462182","authorId":"4185497195462182","name":"悠闲54321","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4e959ff00bccf19f014b59a4a97b5cc8","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4185497195462182","idStr":"4185497195462182"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"做空又鼻青脸肿的了吧？","listText":"做空又鼻青脸肿的了吧？","text":"做空又鼻青脸肿的了吧？","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/509222396125968","repostId":"1189549161","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1189549161","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"期权策略分享","home_visible":1,"media_name":"期权女巫","id":"1020040791","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7471350466f20d36ee3112d77c72cd89"},"pubTimestamp":1764748724,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1189549161?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2025-12-03 15:58","market":"other","language":"zh","title":"期权策略 | 大空头 Burry 这次瞄准特斯拉，第二次沽空会成功吗？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1189549161","media":"期权女巫","summary":"最近，电影《大空头》原型人物 Michael Burry 在一条 Substack 帖子中指控，特斯拉的股价“荒谬地高估”，并指出在马斯克提出 1 万亿美元薪酬方案后，股东被稀释的情况预计将发生，每年会令股东权益被稀释约 3.6%，且马斯克并没有通过回购来抵消这一影响。Burry旗下的13F文件披露：做空英伟达。但随后特斯拉股价持续上涨。2021 年第三季度，Burry 退出了其对特斯拉的空头头寸。Burry 随后在公开场合称那只是“一个交易”，并不意味着对特斯拉长期看空。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>最近，电影《大空头》原型人物 Michael Burry 在一条 Substack 帖子中指控，特斯拉（Tesla）的股价<strong>“荒谬地高估”</strong>，并指出在马斯克（Elon Musk）提出 1 万亿美元薪酬方案后，股东被稀释的情况预计将继续发生，每年会令股东权益被稀释约 3.6%，且马斯克并没有通过回购来抵消这一影响。</p><p>Michael Burry ——因在 2008 年金融危机前精准做空美国房地产市场而闻名，并被拍成电影《大空头》。</p><p>该消息引发世界范围内的传播，下面为Bloomberg的报道：</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dd47663a499b877c20380b5c4656420c\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1279\" tg-height=\"1379\"/></p><p><strong>近期 Michael Burry 的观点持续受到资本市场追踪：</strong></p><p>11月11日。Burry指出：科技巨头“低估折旧导致利润虚高”，2028年甲骨文利润虚高26.9%。（甲骨文截至目前跌幅超10%）</p><p>11月初。Burry旗下的13F文件披露：做空英伟达。（英伟达11月跌幅达12.5%）</p><p>Michael Burry对特斯拉的指控并无道理：特斯拉高估值、马斯克损害股东利益：</p><h4 id=\"id_914544632\">指控一，特斯拉高估值</h4><p>以最近 12 个月市盈率来看，特斯拉（Tesla）当前的 P/E 已经高达约 296 倍。这一估值远远超过传统车企，如丰田汽车（Toyota）市盈率约为 8.7倍，仅为特斯拉的百分之几。</p><p>即使与科技巨头相比，差距仍然显著，像英伟达 的 P/E 约为 44.9倍，Meta 和 Alphabet 的 P/E 则分别约为 28–31倍。</p><p>也就是说，市场给特斯拉的估值，已经不仅是对汽车业务的溢价，而是在以极高增长的科技巨头的标准对待一家汽车制造商。</p><h4 id=\"id_358471813\">指控二，马斯克损害股东利益</h4><p>2021年和2022年，Elon Musk（马斯克）通过大规模出售股票套现数百亿美元，曾导致特斯拉股价在短期内暴跌近七成，对股东造成重大损失。</p><p>如今公司的新一轮薪酬／期权计划再次引发市场担忧：未来进一步稀释股份，普通股东利益可能被进一步削弱。</p><h4 id=\"id_3348701816\">Burry曾经对特斯拉失败的沽空</h4><p>2021 年第一季度末，Burry 持有特斯拉约 800,100 股的认沽期权（put options），对应名义金额约为 5.34 亿美元。但随后特斯拉股价持续上涨。</p><p>2021 年第三季度，Burry 退出了其对特斯拉的空头头寸。Burry 随后在公开场合称那只是“一个交易”（a trade），并不意味着对特斯拉长期看空。</p><p></p><p>针对特斯拉股价方向不明，以下期权策略可作参考：</p><h2 id=\"id_3497513190\">一、偏空策略：Bear Call Spread（看空 CALL 价差）</h2><p><strong>逻辑</strong></p><ul style=\"\"><li><p>Michael Burry 的指控被市场认可，并持续发酵</p></li><li><p>特斯拉估值重估</p></li></ul><p><strong>结构</strong></p><ul style=\"\"><li><p>卖出一张2026年1月2日到期、行权价为410的CALL</p></li><li><p>买入一张2026年1月2日到期、行权价为415的CALL</p></li></ul><p><strong>盈亏平衡点（到期）</strong>：413.02（目前价位429.24）</p><p><a href=\"https://tigr.link/s/10CzWz8\" title=\"TSLA 260102 410 CALL / 415 CALL \" target=\"_blank\" class=\"\">TSLA 260102 410 CALL / 415 CALL</a></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/706f0b9e0572dd478419166ca45a54b5\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1269\" tg-height=\"1383\"/></p><h2 id=\"id_763220772\">二、偏多策略：Bull Call Spread（看涨 CALL 价差）</h2><p><strong>逻辑</strong></p><ul style=\"\"><li><p>Michael Burry 的指控被市场忽略</p></li><li><p>Michael Burry重演对特斯拉的失败沽空</p></li></ul><p><strong>结构</strong></p><ul style=\"\"><li><p>买入一张2026年1月2日到期、行权价为440的CALL</p></li><li><p>卖出一张2026年1月2日到期、行权价为445的CALL</p></li></ul><p><strong>盈亏平衡点（到期）</strong>：441.95（目前价位429.24）</p><p><a href=\"https://tigr.link/s/70CzZYe\" title=\"TSLA 260102 440 CALL / 445 CALL\" target=\"_blank\" class=\"\">TSLA 260102 440 CALL / 445 CALL</a></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ee8e27e903407bc266095b990953e7df\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1284\" tg-height=\"1385\"/></p><p><em>免责声明：期权交易具有高风险特征，投资者需根据自身风险承受能力审慎决策。</em></p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>期权策略 | 大空头 Burry 这次瞄准特斯拉，第二次沽空会成功吗？</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n期权策略 | 大空头 Burry 这次瞄准特斯拉，第二次沽空会成功吗？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1020040791\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/7471350466f20d36ee3112d77c72cd89);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">期权女巫 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2025-12-03 15:58</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>最近，电影《大空头》原型人物 Michael Burry 在一条 Substack 帖子中指控，特斯拉（Tesla）的股价<strong>“荒谬地高估”</strong>，并指出在马斯克（Elon Musk）提出 1 万亿美元薪酬方案后，股东被稀释的情况预计将继续发生，每年会令股东权益被稀释约 3.6%，且马斯克并没有通过回购来抵消这一影响。</p><p>Michael Burry ——因在 2008 年金融危机前精准做空美国房地产市场而闻名，并被拍成电影《大空头》。</p><p>该消息引发世界范围内的传播，下面为Bloomberg的报道：</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dd47663a499b877c20380b5c4656420c\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1279\" tg-height=\"1379\"/></p><p><strong>近期 Michael Burry 的观点持续受到资本市场追踪：</strong></p><p>11月11日。Burry指出：科技巨头“低估折旧导致利润虚高”，2028年甲骨文利润虚高26.9%。（甲骨文截至目前跌幅超10%）</p><p>11月初。Burry旗下的13F文件披露：做空英伟达。（英伟达11月跌幅达12.5%）</p><p>Michael Burry对特斯拉的指控并无道理：特斯拉高估值、马斯克损害股东利益：</p><h4 id=\"id_914544632\">指控一，特斯拉高估值</h4><p>以最近 12 个月市盈率来看，特斯拉（Tesla）当前的 P/E 已经高达约 296 倍。这一估值远远超过传统车企，如丰田汽车（Toyota）市盈率约为 8.7倍，仅为特斯拉的百分之几。</p><p>即使与科技巨头相比，差距仍然显著，像英伟达 的 P/E 约为 44.9倍，Meta 和 Alphabet 的 P/E 则分别约为 28–31倍。</p><p>也就是说，市场给特斯拉的估值，已经不仅是对汽车业务的溢价，而是在以极高增长的科技巨头的标准对待一家汽车制造商。</p><h4 id=\"id_358471813\">指控二，马斯克损害股东利益</h4><p>2021年和2022年，Elon Musk（马斯克）通过大规模出售股票套现数百亿美元，曾导致特斯拉股价在短期内暴跌近七成，对股东造成重大损失。</p><p>如今公司的新一轮薪酬／期权计划再次引发市场担忧：未来进一步稀释股份，普通股东利益可能被进一步削弱。</p><h4 id=\"id_3348701816\">Burry曾经对特斯拉失败的沽空</h4><p>2021 年第一季度末，Burry 持有特斯拉约 800,100 股的认沽期权（put options），对应名义金额约为 5.34 亿美元。但随后特斯拉股价持续上涨。</p><p>2021 年第三季度，Burry 退出了其对特斯拉的空头头寸。Burry 随后在公开场合称那只是“一个交易”（a trade），并不意味着对特斯拉长期看空。</p><p></p><p>针对特斯拉股价方向不明，以下期权策略可作参考：</p><h2 id=\"id_3497513190\">一、偏空策略：Bear Call Spread（看空 CALL 价差）</h2><p><strong>逻辑</strong></p><ul style=\"\"><li><p>Michael Burry 的指控被市场认可，并持续发酵</p></li><li><p>特斯拉估值重估</p></li></ul><p><strong>结构</strong></p><ul style=\"\"><li><p>卖出一张2026年1月2日到期、行权价为410的CALL</p></li><li><p>买入一张2026年1月2日到期、行权价为415的CALL</p></li></ul><p><strong>盈亏平衡点（到期）</strong>：413.02（目前价位429.24）</p><p><a href=\"https://tigr.link/s/10CzWz8\" title=\"TSLA 260102 410 CALL / 415 CALL \" target=\"_blank\" class=\"\">TSLA 260102 410 CALL / 415 CALL</a></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/706f0b9e0572dd478419166ca45a54b5\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1269\" tg-height=\"1383\"/></p><h2 id=\"id_763220772\">二、偏多策略：Bull Call Spread（看涨 CALL 价差）</h2><p><strong>逻辑</strong></p><ul style=\"\"><li><p>Michael Burry 的指控被市场忽略</p></li><li><p>Michael Burry重演对特斯拉的失败沽空</p></li></ul><p><strong>结构</strong></p><ul style=\"\"><li><p>买入一张2026年1月2日到期、行权价为440的CALL</p></li><li><p>卖出一张2026年1月2日到期、行权价为445的CALL</p></li></ul><p><strong>盈亏平衡点（到期）</strong>：441.95（目前价位429.24）</p><p><a href=\"https://tigr.link/s/70CzZYe\" title=\"TSLA 260102 440 CALL / 445 CALL\" target=\"_blank\" class=\"\">TSLA 260102 440 CALL / 445 CALL</a></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ee8e27e903407bc266095b990953e7df\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1284\" tg-height=\"1385\"/></p><p><em>免责声明：期权交易具有高风险特征，投资者需根据自身风险承受能力审慎决策。</em></p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/340d3c04436bbba1df239d6d4a7e3fd2","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉","TSLL":"2倍做多TSLA ETF-Direxion","TSLR":"2倍做多TSLA ETF-GraniteShares"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1189549161","content_text":"最近，电影《大空头》原型人物 Michael Burry 在一条 Substack 帖子中指控，特斯拉（Tesla）的股价“荒谬地高估”，并指出在马斯克（Elon Musk）提出 1 万亿美元薪酬方案后，股东被稀释的情况预计将继续发生，每年会令股东权益被稀释约 3.6%，且马斯克并没有通过回购来抵消这一影响。Michael Burry ——因在 2008 年金融危机前精准做空美国房地产市场而闻名，并被拍成电影《大空头》。该消息引发世界范围内的传播，下面为Bloomberg的报道：近期 Michael Burry 的观点持续受到资本市场追踪：11月11日。Burry指出：科技巨头“低估折旧导致利润虚高”，2028年甲骨文利润虚高26.9%。（甲骨文截至目前跌幅超10%）11月初。Burry旗下的13F文件披露：做空英伟达。（英伟达11月跌幅达12.5%）Michael Burry对特斯拉的指控并无道理：特斯拉高估值、马斯克损害股东利益：指控一，特斯拉高估值以最近 12 个月市盈率来看，特斯拉（Tesla）当前的 P/E 已经高达约 296 倍。这一估值远远超过传统车企，如丰田汽车（Toyota）市盈率约为 8.7倍，仅为特斯拉的百分之几。即使与科技巨头相比，差距仍然显著，像英伟达 的 P/E 约为 44.9倍，Meta 和 Alphabet 的 P/E 则分别约为 28–31倍。也就是说，市场给特斯拉的估值，已经不仅是对汽车业务的溢价，而是在以极高增长的科技巨头的标准对待一家汽车制造商。指控二，马斯克损害股东利益2021年和2022年，Elon Musk（马斯克）通过大规模出售股票套现数百亿美元，曾导致特斯拉股价在短期内暴跌近七成，对股东造成重大损失。如今公司的新一轮薪酬／期权计划再次引发市场担忧：未来进一步稀释股份，普通股东利益可能被进一步削弱。Burry曾经对特斯拉失败的沽空2021 年第一季度末，Burry 持有特斯拉约 800,100 股的认沽期权（put options），对应名义金额约为 5.34 亿美元。但随后特斯拉股价持续上涨。2021 年第三季度，Burry 退出了其对特斯拉的空头头寸。Burry 随后在公开场合称那只是“一个交易”（a trade），并不意味着对特斯拉长期看空。针对特斯拉股价方向不明，以下期权策略可作参考：一、偏空策略：Bear Call Spread（看空 CALL 价差）逻辑Michael Burry 的指控被市场认可，并持续发酵特斯拉估值重估结构卖出一张2026年1月2日到期、行权价为410的CALL买入一张2026年1月2日到期、行权价为415的CALL盈亏平衡点（到期）：413.02（目前价位429.24）TSLA 260102 410 CALL / 415 CALL二、偏多策略：Bull Call Spread（看涨 CALL 价差）逻辑Michael Burry 的指控被市场忽略Michael Burry重演对特斯拉的失败沽空结构买入一张2026年1月2日到期、行权价为440的CALL卖出一张2026年1月2日到期、行权价为445的CALL盈亏平衡点（到期）：441.95（目前价位429.24）TSLA 260102 440 CALL / 445 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