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11-11 20:06

信了他，你的筹码就丢了

“大空头”炮轰科技巨头诈欺：人为低估折旧抬高利润，甲骨文盈利或被夸大26.9%、Meta夸大20.8%

11-11 18:33

叫人去接盘

英伟达财报前，花旗高喊：买入！AI需求远超供应，泡沫之说站不住脚

10-14

$Tempus AI(TEM)$ 贸易战关你啥事，你跌个啥

10-04

$Tempus AI(TEM)$ 好现象，第一次收盘收在90员上方

09-20

$Tempus AI(TEM)$ 拉爆空头

09-15

$Tempus AI(TEM)$ 拉爆空头

09-12

$Tempus AI(TEM)$ 拉爆空头

09-02

$英伟达(NVDA)$ 英伟达跌下来就是机会

08-03

巴菲特应该是被苹果坑惨了

伯克希尔Q2净利润暴跌59%，现金储备接近历史高位，警告关税将打击业绩

07-16

$Tempus AI(TEM)$ 黎明前最后的黑暗

06-21

$伯克希尔B(BRK.B)$ 等巴菲特嘎嘣脆的时候再来抄底

06-14

怕毛啊，坚持后还不是照样冲上70块了

Tempus AI, Inc. 董事 Theodore Leonsis 减持205847股

05-21

$英伟达(NVDA)$ 英伟达废了

05-20

$英伟达(NVDA)$ 空头给点力吧

04-21

$英伟达(NVDA)$ 特朗普这个疯子，会把美股搞废

03-20

$Tempus AI(TEM)$ 不到100不卖

03-14

$Tempus AI(TEM)$ 明明看到几千股几千股地买，怎么股价就是不上去

03-10

$英伟达(NVDA)$ 再也买不到这么便宜的英伟达了

03-04

$Tempus AI(TEM)$ 每次高开都是跳水

02-19

麻烦

Form 144 | Tempus AI高管 Eric Lefkofsky 拟减持535,000股，总价约3809万美元

去老虎APP查看更多动态

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SGD-H"},"source_url":"https://usstock.jrj.com.cn/2025/11/11145154125924.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2582330244","content_text":"11月11日，电影《大空头》(The Big Short)男主角原型、传奇对冲基金经理Michael Burry在披露大手沽空科技巨头后，再在社交平台发文称，科技巨头透过“人为”延长资产“有效使用寿命”来低估折旧，从而抬高利润，这是“现代最常见的诈欺(common frauds)之一”。Burry指出，科技企业大规模增加资本开支，采购英伟达芯片和服务器以扩充算力，这些产品周期通常只有2至3年，但部分公司将折旧周期延长至6年，折旧年限不应被延长。不过，正是超大规模科技企业如Meta及甲骨文都在这样做，据他估计，企业在2026年至2028年间将低估折旧1760亿美元。Burry估计，到2028年，甲骨文盈利或被夸大26.9%、Meta则夸大20.8%，情况可能更差。然而，布瑞未有说明详细原因，只表示更多详情将于11月25日发布。此前，美国银行分析师Justin Post于9月曾发表报告指，谷歌母公司Alphabet、Meta和亚马逊资本支出在2024年和2025年大幅增长，其折旧费用必然会在2026年后加速。推算到2027年，仅这3家公司折旧费用，市场普遍预测就可能比实际情况低了近164亿美元，这意味着它们未来实际盈利能力或远低于当前的市场共识。\n\n美股频道更多独家策划、专家专栏，免费查阅>>\n\r\n            责任编辑：钟离","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"XMAG":1.5,"FB":1.5,"ORCL":1.5,"META":1.5}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":499024532521496,"gmtCreate":1762857209036,"gmtModify":1762857211340,"author":{"id":"4192275124635212","authorId":"4192275124635212","name":"小韭菜321","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4192275124635212","authorIdStr":"4192275124635212"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"叫人去接盘","listText":"叫人去接盘","text":"叫人去接盘","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/499024532521496","repostId":"2582339194","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2582339194","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"追踪全球财经热点，精选影响您财富的资讯，投资理财必备神器！","home_visible":1,"media_name":"华尔街见闻","id":"1084101182","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e"},"pubTimestamp":1762837077,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2582339194?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2025-11-11 12:57","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"英伟达财报前，花旗高喊：买入！AI需求远超供应，泡沫之说站不住脚","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2582339194","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"花旗预计英伟达即将于11月19日公布的财报将实现“营收超预期和指引上调”的强劲表现，维持“买入”评级并将目标价上调至220美元。其认为，当前限制英伟达增长的并非AI需求疲软，而是CoWoS封装等供应链瓶颈，AI泡沫论站不住脚。","content":"<html><head></head><body><blockquote><p>花旗预计英伟达即将于11月19日公布的财报将实现“营收超预期和指引上调”的强劲表现，维持“买入”评级并将目标价上调至220美元。其认为，当前限制英伟达增长的并非AI需求疲软，而是CoWoS封装等供应链瓶颈，AI泡沫论站不住脚。</p></blockquote><p>在人工智能（AI）领域的投资狂潮引发市场对潜在泡沫的激烈辩论之际，花旗集团为<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">英伟达</a>投下了关键的信任票。</p><p>据追风交易台消息，花旗11月10日发布的一份研究报告，维持对英伟达股票的“买入”评级，并将目标价从210美元上调至220美元。更引人注目的是，花旗开启了对该股的“30天短期看涨”观点，押注其即将于11月19日公布的财报将实现“营收超预期和指引上调”（beat and raise）的强劲表现。</p><p>这份报告直接回应了投资者对AI资本支出“虚火”的担忧。分析师Atif Malik和Papa Sylla在报告中指出，尽管存在关于AI投资资金来源的疑虑，但一个更基本面的事实是，由于先进封装（CoWoS）产能受限，AI芯片的供应在2026年之前都将持续低于需求。</p><p>花旗暗示英伟达的股价在当前水平仍具吸引力。报告称，英伟达目前的市盈率约为28倍，相较于AI同行<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AVGO\">博通</a>的38倍和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMD\">AMD</a>的37倍，估值更具优势。</p><h2 id=\"id_3333557838\">业绩超预期在即？</h2><p>花旗预计，英伟达即将公布的业绩将轻松超越华尔街的普遍预期。报告预测，公司截至10月的季度销售额将达到570亿美元，高于市场平均预期的约550亿美元。</p><p>对于未来的展望，花旗预计英伟达给出的1月季度销售指引将达到620亿美元，同样高于市场约610亿美元的预期。</p><p>报告指出，这一乐观预测的背后，是英伟达Blackwell架构GPU的强劲出货势头。花旗分析师认为，英伟达在GTC Washington大会上透露的已出货600万个GPU的信息，是其10月季度和1月季度业绩可能超预期的有力信号。</p><p>花旗在报告中称，其模型假设英伟达的数据中心销售额在10月和1月季度将分别环比增长24%和12%，而市场预期分别为19%和15%。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/031585986cc89816b6348d0ff63aa67e\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"780\" tg-height=\"695\"/></p><h2 id=\"id_3443654422\">AI泡沫论被驳斥</h2><p>针对市场上愈演愈烈的“AI泡沫”论调，花旗提出了截然相反的观点。报告的核心论点是，当前AI芯片市场的主要矛盾是供不应求，而非需求不足。</p><blockquote><p>“尽管存在围绕AI资本支出泡沫的债务和循环融资组合的担忧，但我们从根本上看到，由于CoWoS产能限制，AI供应在2026年之前都将低于需求，并可能在2027年的某个时候才能赶上。”</p></blockquote><p>报告写道。这一判断意味着，旺盛的需求是真实存在的，而非投机炒作的产物。</p><p>为了进一步佐证需求端的强劲，花旗还指出，大型云服务提供商（hyperscaler）的云收入正从2025年开始出现拐点，并有望在2026年继续加速增长，其主要驱动力正是企业级AI应用的普及。</p><h2 id=\"id_3673199009\">上调目标价至220美元</h2><p>基于对英伟达增长前景的强烈信心，花旗不仅上调了其目标价，还全面提升了对未来的财务预测。新的220美元目标价基于对英伟达2026日历年每股收益（EPS）7.24美元的预测，并给予了30倍的市盈率。</p><p>报告显示，花旗将英伟达2026、2027和2028财年的EPS预测分别上调了2%、7%和8%，以更好地匹配该行修正后的全球AI资本支出模型。值得注意的是，花旗在模型中继续假设来自中国数据中心的销售额为零，这意味着任何政策上的缓和都可能带来额外的上行空间。</p><h2 id=\"id_3407873464\">AI芯片市场远未见顶？</h2><p>花旗的看涨观点不仅限于英伟达自身，也延伸至整个AI半导体市场。报告大幅上调了对未来市场规模的预测，认为AI的浪潮远未达到顶峰。</p><p>根据花旗的最新模型，到2028年，全球数据中心半导体市场的总规模（TAM）预计将达到6540亿美元，比此前5630亿美元的预测值高出16%。报告解释称，上调的主要原因是“来自OpenAI等关键AI玩家的需求高于预期”。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/253726fc621852b77835e2bd3bb12915\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"823\" tg-height=\"472\"/></p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>英伟达财报前，花旗高喊：买入！AI需求远超供应，泡沫之说站不住脚</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ 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left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n英伟达财报前，花旗高喊：买入！AI需求远超供应，泡沫之说站不住脚\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2025-11-11 12:57 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3759111><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>花旗预计英伟达即将于11月19日公布的财报将实现“营收超预期和指引上调”的强劲表现，维持“买入”评级并将目标价上调至220美元。其认为，当前限制英伟达增长的并非AI需求疲软，而是CoWoS封装等供应链瓶颈，AI泡沫论站不住脚。在人工智能（AI）领域的投资狂潮引发市场对潜在泡沫的激烈辩论之际，花旗集团为英伟达投下了关键的信任票。据追风交易台消息，花旗11月10日发布的一份研究报告，维持对英伟达股票的...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3759111\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3f1c866c487eb9e101f73a62d4495ce9","relate_stocks":{"NVDA":"英伟达"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3759111","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2582339194","content_text":"花旗预计英伟达即将于11月19日公布的财报将实现“营收超预期和指引上调”的强劲表现，维持“买入”评级并将目标价上调至220美元。其认为，当前限制英伟达增长的并非AI需求疲软，而是CoWoS封装等供应链瓶颈，AI泡沫论站不住脚。在人工智能（AI）领域的投资狂潮引发市场对潜在泡沫的激烈辩论之际，花旗集团为英伟达投下了关键的信任票。据追风交易台消息，花旗11月10日发布的一份研究报告，维持对英伟达股票的“买入”评级，并将目标价从210美元上调至220美元。更引人注目的是，花旗开启了对该股的“30天短期看涨”观点，押注其即将于11月19日公布的财报将实现“营收超预期和指引上调”（beat and raise）的强劲表现。这份报告直接回应了投资者对AI资本支出“虚火”的担忧。分析师Atif Malik和Papa Sylla在报告中指出，尽管存在关于AI投资资金来源的疑虑，但一个更基本面的事实是，由于先进封装（CoWoS）产能受限，AI芯片的供应在2026年之前都将持续低于需求。花旗暗示英伟达的股价在当前水平仍具吸引力。报告称，英伟达目前的市盈率约为28倍，相较于AI同行博通的38倍和AMD的37倍，估值更具优势。业绩超预期在即？花旗预计，英伟达即将公布的业绩将轻松超越华尔街的普遍预期。报告预测，公司截至10月的季度销售额将达到570亿美元，高于市场平均预期的约550亿美元。对于未来的展望，花旗预计英伟达给出的1月季度销售指引将达到620亿美元，同样高于市场约610亿美元的预期。报告指出，这一乐观预测的背后，是英伟达Blackwell架构GPU的强劲出货势头。花旗分析师认为，英伟达在GTC Washington大会上透露的已出货600万个GPU的信息，是其10月季度和1月季度业绩可能超预期的有力信号。花旗在报告中称，其模型假设英伟达的数据中心销售额在10月和1月季度将分别环比增长24%和12%，而市场预期分别为19%和15%。AI泡沫论被驳斥针对市场上愈演愈烈的“AI泡沫”论调，花旗提出了截然相反的观点。报告的核心论点是，当前AI芯片市场的主要矛盾是供不应求，而非需求不足。“尽管存在围绕AI资本支出泡沫的债务和循环融资组合的担忧，但我们从根本上看到，由于CoWoS产能限制，AI供应在2026年之前都将低于需求，并可能在2027年的某个时候才能赶上。”报告写道。这一判断意味着，旺盛的需求是真实存在的，而非投机炒作的产物。为了进一步佐证需求端的强劲，花旗还指出，大型云服务提供商（hyperscaler）的云收入正从2025年开始出现拐点，并有望在2026年继续加速增长，其主要驱动力正是企业级AI应用的普及。上调目标价至220美元基于对英伟达增长前景的强烈信心，花旗不仅上调了其目标价，还全面提升了对未来的财务预测。新的220美元目标价基于对英伟达2026日历年每股收益（EPS）7.24美元的预测，并给予了30倍的市盈率。报告显示，花旗将英伟达2026、2027和2028财年的EPS预测分别上调了2%、7%和8%，以更好地匹配该行修正后的全球AI资本支出模型。值得注意的是，花旗在模型中继续假设来自中国数据中心的销售额为零，这意味着任何政策上的缓和都可能带来额外的上行空间。AI芯片市场远未见顶？花旗的看涨观点不仅限于英伟达自身，也延伸至整个AI半导体市场。报告大幅上调了对未来市场规模的预测，认为AI的浪潮远未达到顶峰。根据花旗的最新模型，到2028年，全球数据中心半导体市场的总规模（TAM）预计将达到6540亿美元，比此前5630亿美元的预测值高出16%。报告解释称，上调的主要原因是“来自OpenAI等关键AI玩家的需求高于预期”。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NVDA":1.5}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":489016849424488,"gmtCreate":1760416354180,"gmtModify":1760416779183,"author":{"id":"4192275124635212","authorId":"4192275124635212","name":"小韭菜321","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4192275124635212","authorIdStr":"4192275124635212"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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拉爆空头","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/477910220628456","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":235,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":474131618665272,"gmtCreate":1756786285193,"gmtModify":1756786286437,"author":{"id":"4192275124635212","authorId":"4192275124635212","name":"小韭菜321","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4192275124635212","authorIdStr":"4192275124635212"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">$英伟达(NVDA)$&nbsp;</a>&nbsp; 英伟达跌下来就是机会","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">$英伟达(NVDA)$&nbsp;</a>&nbsp; 英伟达跌下来就是机会","text":"$英伟达(NVDA)$ 英伟达跌下来就是机会","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/474131618665272","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1408,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":463569158832200,"gmtCreate":1754182192616,"gmtModify":1754182194243,"author":{"id":"4192275124635212","authorId":"4192275124635212","name":"小韭菜321","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4192275124635212","authorIdStr":"4192275124635212"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"巴菲特应该是被苹果坑惨了","listText":"巴菲特应该是被苹果坑惨了","text":"巴菲特应该是被苹果坑惨了","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/463569158832200","repostId":"1161964019","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1161964019","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1754141625,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1161964019?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2025-08-02 21:33","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"伯克希尔Q2净利润暴跌59%，现金储备接近历史高位，警告关税将打击业绩","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1161964019","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"伯克希尔Q2营业利润同比下降3.8%，净利润暴跌59%，现金储备为3440亿美元接近历史高位，对特朗普政府实施的严厉关税政策发出强烈警告。\"截至6月底，伯克希尔持有卡夫亨氏27.4%的股份。现金储备三年首次缩水，连续第11个季度净卖出股票第二季度，伯克希尔的现金储备接近历史高位但是为三年来首次下降，在股票市场采取了更加谨慎的态度，成为股票净卖方。","content":"<html><head></head><body><blockquote><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BRK.A\">伯克希尔</a>在财报中称，关税等国际贸易政策紧张局势在2025年上半年加速发展，对其多元化业务构成威胁，警告称，&#34;几乎所有经营业务以及股票投资都可能面临不利后果，这可能显著影响未来业绩&#34;。财报还显示，伯克希尔哈撒韦连续第11个季度净卖出股票，第二季度未进行股票回购，截至二季度末前五大持仓分别为<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AXP\">美国运通</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">苹果</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">美国银行</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/KO\">可口可乐</a>和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CVX\">雪佛龙</a>。</p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">伯克希尔Q2营业利润同比下降3.8%，净利润暴跌59%，现金储备3440亿美元接近历史高位但为三年来首次下降，对特朗普政府实施的严厉关税政策发出强烈警告。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">8月2日，伯克希尔二季度交出了一份喜忧参半的成绩单。营业利润111.6亿美元较去年同期下降3.8%，虽然降幅有限，但这一数字反映出公司核心业务面临的结构性压力。更值得注意的是，净利润123.7亿美元同比暴跌59%，这一巨幅下滑很大程度上受到投资组合估值变化的拖累。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">伯克希尔在财报中称，关税等国际贸易政策紧张局势在2025年上半年加速发展，对其多元化业务构成威胁，警告称，&#34;<strong>几乎所有经营业务以及股票投资都可能面临不利后果，这可能显著影响未来业绩</strong>&#34;。受贸易政策影响，旗下服装和玩具品牌收入出现不同程度下滑。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">尽管股价较历史高点下跌超过10%，该公司在2025年上半年并未回购任何股票。现年94岁的巴菲特此前宣布将于今年底卸任CEO职务，Greg Abel将接任这一角色。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>以下为伯克希尔二季度财报要点：</strong></p><ul style=\"\"><li><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>营收</strong>：Q2营收925.15亿美元，市场预期919.63亿美元，上年同期936.53亿美元；</p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>营业利润</strong>：Q2营业利润111.6亿美元，同比下降3.8%；</p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>净利润</strong>：Q2净利润123.7亿美元，市场预期107.03亿美元，上年同期303.48亿美元；上半年净利润170亿美元，同比下降60.6%；</p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>投资净收益</strong>：Q2投资净收益49.7亿美元，上年同期为187.5亿美元；</p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>每股收益</strong>：Q2 EPS为8601美元，市场预期7443美元，上年同期21122美元；</p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>现金储备</strong>：截至二季度末现金及现金等价物达3441亿美元，为三年来首次下降。</p></li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b982c5ce8e66a318c9c4acf834053ee0\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"792\" tg-height=\"796\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>核心业务进展</strong></p><ul style=\"\"><li><p><strong>保险承保：</strong>承保利润25亿美元，但因南加州野火损失约12亿美元而拖累业绩；保险承保业务收入19.9亿美元，同比下降12%；保险投资业务收入33.7亿美元，同比增长1.4%；</p></li><li><p><strong>BNSF铁路：</strong>营业效率提升，税后净利润同比增长19.5%至14.7亿美元；</p></li><li><p><strong>伯克希尔能源：</strong>营业利润7.02亿美元，同比增长7.2%；</p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>制造业、服务业及零售业务：</strong>营业利润36亿美元，同比增长6.5%。</p></li></ul><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>投资组合变化</strong></p><ul style=\"\"><li><p><strong>股票投资收益：</strong>第二季度投资收益64亿美元，但上半年为净损失710万美元；</p></li><li><p><strong>权益法投资重大减值：</strong>对<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/KHC\">卡夫亨氏</a>投资确认38亿美元减值损失。</p></li></ul><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">财报显示，从业务板块来看，BNSF铁路运输业务成为最大亮点，<strong>经营收入14.7亿美元，同比增长19%</strong>。这一强劲表现可能反映了美国商品运输需求的复苏，以及BNSF在定价能力方面的优势。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">相比之下，<strong>保险承保业务表现令人失望，营业收入19.9亿美元，同比下降12%</strong>。这一下滑可能反映了保险市场竞争加剧以及理赔成本上升的双重压力。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">不过，保险投资业务收入33.7亿美元，同比小幅增长1.4%，在当前利率环境下这一表现尚可接受。值得关注的是，保险浮存金规模维持在1740亿美元，继续为伯克希尔提供巨额低成本资金用于投资。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">财报还显示，伯克希尔哈撒韦<strong>连续第11个季度净卖出股票，第二季度未进行股票回购</strong>，截至二季度末前五大持仓分别为<strong>美国运通、苹果、美国银行、可口可乐和雪佛龙</strong>。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">此外，该公司还持有<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/OXY\">西方石油</a>公司的普通股股份，根据权益法进行核算。据伯克希尔披露，截至二季度末，其持有1.516亿股美国运通普通股，占美国运通已发行普通股的21.8%。</p><h2 id=\"id_969553336\">承保业务喜忧参半，巨灾风险管控仍是关键</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">保险承保业务呈现出典型的周期性特征。<strong>汽车保险公司Geico第二季度税前承保收益增长2%至18亿美元</strong>。该部门承保费用在此期间激增40%，因为公司加大支出以增加保单数量。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>虽然第二季度实现了25亿美元的承保利润，但上半年却因南加州野火造成约12亿美元损失而业绩承压。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">更值得关注的是，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601099\">太平洋</a>电力公司（PacifiCorp）面临的野火诉讼风险正在积聚。截至目前，该公司已累计计提约27.5亿美元的野火相关损失准备，但诉讼的最终结果仍存在较大不确定性。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">这一情况凸显了伯克希尔在巨灾风险管控方面面临的挑战。虽然公司长期以来以卓越的风险管理能力著称，但气候变化导致的极端天气事件频发，正在重新定义保险行业的风险边界。</p><h2 id=\"id_2797938345\">投资收益波动剧烈，权益法投资遭遇重大减值</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">投资业务的表现可谓冰火两重天。第二季度64亿美元的投资收益主要来自于持有证券市价上涨带来的76亿美元未实现收益，但这种纸面财富的波动性极大。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">更值得关注的是，<strong>公司对卡夫亨氏的投资确认了38亿美元的减值损失。</strong>该公司表示，公允价值的持续下跌以及当前经济和其他不确定性因素，导致其认定这一未实现损失非临时性。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">卡夫亨氏股份一直是巴菲特为数不多的投资败笔之一。自2015年卡夫与亨氏合并创建这家包装食品巨头以来，其股价已下跌62%。同期，标普500指数上涨了202%。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">伯克希尔在文件中表示，除了公允价值持续下跌外，该公司还考虑了伯克希尔放弃在卡夫亨氏董事会席位以及卡夫亨氏正在考虑战略交易等因素。伯克希尔表示：</p><blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">&#34;鉴于这些因素，以及当前经济和其他不确定性，我们认定未实现损失（即我们投资账面价值与公允价值之间的差异）属于非临时性损失。&#34;</p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">截至6月底，伯克希尔持有卡夫亨氏27.4%的股份。</p><h2 id=\"id_908051281\">现金储备三年首次缩水，连续第11个季度净卖出股票</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">第二季度，伯克希尔的现金储备接近历史高位但为三年来首次下降，在股票市场采取了更加谨慎的态度，成为股票净卖方。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">财报显示，伯克希尔现金储备在截至6月的三个月中下降1%至3440亿美元，这是<strong>三年来资金池首次缩水</strong>。此前，由于巴菲特难以找到投资机会，这些资金一直飙升至历史新高。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">第二季度，伯克希尔在股票市场采取了更加谨慎的做法，<strong>在此期间成为持仓股票的净卖方，抛售了约30亿美元的股票</strong>。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">而且，伯克希尔自身也没有进行任何股票回购。尽管该股在巴菲特5月宣布将于年底卸任首席执行官后下跌12%，但他已在回购方面观望约一年时间。</p><h2 id=\"id_331955462\">运营业务稳中有进，但增长动能有限</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">从运营业务来看，<strong>BNSF铁路业务表现相对亮眼，第二季度税后净利润同比增长19.5%</strong>，主要得益于运营效率提升和生产力改善。但货运量增长相对温和，反映了整体经济增长动能的不足。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">制造业、服务业和零售业务的表现则更为复杂。虽然总体收入有所增长，但不同子行业间分化明显。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">特别是消费产品板块，面临着国际贸易政策不确定性带来的订单延迟和出货推迟等问题，这种外部环境的不确定性正在逐步渗透到公司的各个业务层面。</p><h2 id=\"262e45af\">贸易政策冲击消费品牌业务</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">贸易不确定性对伯克希尔旗下消费品牌造成明显冲击。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">财报显示，服装品牌Fruit of the Loom年内收入下滑11.7%，Garan下降10.1%，玩具品牌Jazwares更是暴跌38.5%。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">公司在财报中明确指出，这些下滑&#34;部分源于国际贸易政策和关税带来的不确定性，导致订单和发货延迟&#34;。据央视新闻，特朗普宣布对多个美国贸易伙伴实施新的关税税率，将于8月7日生效。</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1700700604709","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>伯克希尔Q2净利润暴跌59%，现金储备接近历史高位，警告关税将打击业绩</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n伯克希尔Q2净利润暴跌59%，现金储备接近历史高位，警告关税将打击业绩\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2025-08-02 21:33 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3752521><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>伯克希尔在财报中称，关税等国际贸易政策紧张局势在2025年上半年加速发展，对其多元化业务构成威胁，警告称，\"几乎所有经营业务以及股票投资都可能面临不利后果，这可能显著影响未来业绩\"。财报还显示，伯克希尔哈撒韦连续第11个季度净卖出股票，第二季度未进行股票回购，截至二季度末前五大持仓分别为美国运通、苹果、美国银行、可口可乐和雪佛龙。伯克希尔Q2营业利润同比下降3.8%，净利润暴跌59%，现金储备...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3752521\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c1b9fef028787bba142fa31212ae49d2","relate_stocks":{"LU1571399168.USD":"ALLSPRING GLOBAL LONG/SHORT EQUITY \"IP\" (USD) ACC","BRK.A":"伯克希尔","BK4588":"碎股","LU0683600562.USD":"AB SELECT US EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","IE00B3S45H60.SGD":"Neuberger Berman US Multicap Opportunities A Acc SGD-H","IE00BJLML261.HKD":"HSBC GLOBAL EQUITY INDEX \"HCH\" (HKD) ACC","LU1914381329.SGD":"Allianz Best Styles Global Equity Cl ET Acc H2-SGD","LU0157215616.USD":"FIDELITY GLOBAL FOCUS \"A\" INC","LU0787776722.HKD":"AB SELECT US EQUITY PORTFOLIO \"A\" (HKD) ACC","LU0971096721.USD":"富达环球金融服务 A","LU0149725797.USD":"汇丰美国股市经济规模基金","BRK.B":"伯克希尔B","LU2168564495.EUR":"AZ ALLOCATION - TREND \"AI\" (EUR) ACC","IE0034235303.USD":"PINEBRIDGE US RESEARCH ENHANCED CORE EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0234570918.USD":"高盛全球核心股票组合Acc Close","IE00BK4W5L77.USD":"HSBC GLOBAL FUNDS ICAV US EQUITY INDEX \"HC\" (USD) ACC","LU0154236417.USD":"BGF US FLEXIBLE EQUITY \"A2\" ACC","LU0170899867.USD":"EASTSPRING INVESTMENTS WORLD VALUE EQUITY  \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0417517546.SGD":"Allianz US Equity Cl AT Acc SGD"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3752521","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1161964019","content_text":"伯克希尔在财报中称，关税等国际贸易政策紧张局势在2025年上半年加速发展，对其多元化业务构成威胁，警告称，\"几乎所有经营业务以及股票投资都可能面临不利后果，这可能显著影响未来业绩\"。财报还显示，伯克希尔哈撒韦连续第11个季度净卖出股票，第二季度未进行股票回购，截至二季度末前五大持仓分别为美国运通、苹果、美国银行、可口可乐和雪佛龙。伯克希尔Q2营业利润同比下降3.8%，净利润暴跌59%，现金储备3440亿美元接近历史高位但为三年来首次下降，对特朗普政府实施的严厉关税政策发出强烈警告。8月2日，伯克希尔二季度交出了一份喜忧参半的成绩单。营业利润111.6亿美元较去年同期下降3.8%，虽然降幅有限，但这一数字反映出公司核心业务面临的结构性压力。更值得注意的是，净利润123.7亿美元同比暴跌59%，这一巨幅下滑很大程度上受到投资组合估值变化的拖累。伯克希尔在财报中称，关税等国际贸易政策紧张局势在2025年上半年加速发展，对其多元化业务构成威胁，警告称，\"几乎所有经营业务以及股票投资都可能面临不利后果，这可能显著影响未来业绩\"。受贸易政策影响，旗下服装和玩具品牌收入出现不同程度下滑。尽管股价较历史高点下跌超过10%，该公司在2025年上半年并未回购任何股票。现年94岁的巴菲特此前宣布将于今年底卸任CEO职务，Greg Abel将接任这一角色。以下为伯克希尔二季度财报要点：营收：Q2营收925.15亿美元，市场预期919.63亿美元，上年同期936.53亿美元；营业利润：Q2营业利润111.6亿美元，同比下降3.8%；净利润：Q2净利润123.7亿美元，市场预期107.03亿美元，上年同期303.48亿美元；上半年净利润170亿美元，同比下降60.6%；投资净收益：Q2投资净收益49.7亿美元，上年同期为187.5亿美元；每股收益：Q2 EPS为8601美元，市场预期7443美元，上年同期21122美元；现金储备：截至二季度末现金及现金等价物达3441亿美元，为三年来首次下降。核心业务进展保险承保：承保利润25亿美元，但因南加州野火损失约12亿美元而拖累业绩；保险承保业务收入19.9亿美元，同比下降12%；保险投资业务收入33.7亿美元，同比增长1.4%；BNSF铁路：营业效率提升，税后净利润同比增长19.5%至14.7亿美元；伯克希尔能源：营业利润7.02亿美元，同比增长7.2%；制造业、服务业及零售业务：营业利润36亿美元，同比增长6.5%。投资组合变化股票投资收益：第二季度投资收益64亿美元，但上半年为净损失710万美元；权益法投资重大减值：对卡夫亨氏投资确认38亿美元减值损失。财报显示，从业务板块来看，BNSF铁路运输业务成为最大亮点，经营收入14.7亿美元，同比增长19%。这一强劲表现可能反映了美国商品运输需求的复苏，以及BNSF在定价能力方面的优势。相比之下，保险承保业务表现令人失望，营业收入19.9亿美元，同比下降12%。这一下滑可能反映了保险市场竞争加剧以及理赔成本上升的双重压力。不过，保险投资业务收入33.7亿美元，同比小幅增长1.4%，在当前利率环境下这一表现尚可接受。值得关注的是，保险浮存金规模维持在1740亿美元，继续为伯克希尔提供巨额低成本资金用于投资。财报还显示，伯克希尔哈撒韦连续第11个季度净卖出股票，第二季度未进行股票回购，截至二季度末前五大持仓分别为美国运通、苹果、美国银行、可口可乐和雪佛龙。此外，该公司还持有西方石油公司的普通股股份，根据权益法进行核算。据伯克希尔披露，截至二季度末，其持有1.516亿股美国运通普通股，占美国运通已发行普通股的21.8%。承保业务喜忧参半，巨灾风险管控仍是关键保险承保业务呈现出典型的周期性特征。汽车保险公司Geico第二季度税前承保收益增长2%至18亿美元。该部门承保费用在此期间激增40%，因为公司加大支出以增加保单数量。虽然第二季度实现了25亿美元的承保利润，但上半年却因南加州野火造成约12亿美元损失而业绩承压。更值得关注的是，太平洋电力公司（PacifiCorp）面临的野火诉讼风险正在积聚。截至目前，该公司已累计计提约27.5亿美元的野火相关损失准备，但诉讼的最终结果仍存在较大不确定性。这一情况凸显了伯克希尔在巨灾风险管控方面面临的挑战。虽然公司长期以来以卓越的风险管理能力著称，但气候变化导致的极端天气事件频发，正在重新定义保险行业的风险边界。投资收益波动剧烈，权益法投资遭遇重大减值投资业务的表现可谓冰火两重天。第二季度64亿美元的投资收益主要来自于持有证券市价上涨带来的76亿美元未实现收益，但这种纸面财富的波动性极大。更值得关注的是，公司对卡夫亨氏的投资确认了38亿美元的减值损失。该公司表示，公允价值的持续下跌以及当前经济和其他不确定性因素，导致其认定这一未实现损失非临时性。卡夫亨氏股份一直是巴菲特为数不多的投资败笔之一。自2015年卡夫与亨氏合并创建这家包装食品巨头以来，其股价已下跌62%。同期，标普500指数上涨了202%。伯克希尔在文件中表示，除了公允价值持续下跌外，该公司还考虑了伯克希尔放弃在卡夫亨氏董事会席位以及卡夫亨氏正在考虑战略交易等因素。伯克希尔表示：\"鉴于这些因素，以及当前经济和其他不确定性，我们认定未实现损失（即我们投资账面价值与公允价值之间的差异）属于非临时性损失。\"截至6月底，伯克希尔持有卡夫亨氏27.4%的股份。现金储备三年首次缩水，连续第11个季度净卖出股票第二季度，伯克希尔的现金储备接近历史高位但为三年来首次下降，在股票市场采取了更加谨慎的态度，成为股票净卖方。财报显示，伯克希尔现金储备在截至6月的三个月中下降1%至3440亿美元，这是三年来资金池首次缩水。此前，由于巴菲特难以找到投资机会，这些资金一直飙升至历史新高。第二季度，伯克希尔在股票市场采取了更加谨慎的做法，在此期间成为持仓股票的净卖方，抛售了约30亿美元的股票。而且，伯克希尔自身也没有进行任何股票回购。尽管该股在巴菲特5月宣布将于年底卸任首席执行官后下跌12%，但他已在回购方面观望约一年时间。运营业务稳中有进，但增长动能有限从运营业务来看，BNSF铁路业务表现相对亮眼，第二季度税后净利润同比增长19.5%，主要得益于运营效率提升和生产力改善。但货运量增长相对温和，反映了整体经济增长动能的不足。制造业、服务业和零售业务的表现则更为复杂。虽然总体收入有所增长，但不同子行业间分化明显。特别是消费产品板块，面临着国际贸易政策不确定性带来的订单延迟和出货推迟等问题，这种外部环境的不确定性正在逐步渗透到公司的各个业务层面。贸易政策冲击消费品牌业务贸易不确定性对伯克希尔旗下消费品牌造成明显冲击。财报显示，服装品牌Fruit 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A普通股，分别以67.59美元及68.27美元出售。这次减持可能对公司股票价格造成一定压力，投资者需密切关注。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TEM":1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":706,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":437485899059600,"gmtCreate":1747838908836,"gmtModify":1747838910243,"author":{"id":"4192275124635212","authorId":"4192275124635212","name":"小韭菜321","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4192275124635212","authorIdStr":"4192275124635212"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">$英伟达(NVDA)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v> 英伟达废了","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">$英伟达(NVDA)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v> 英伟达废了","text":"$英伟达(NVDA)$ 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拉爆空头","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/478954786046328","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1232,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":463569158832200,"gmtCreate":1754182192616,"gmtModify":1754182194243,"author":{"id":"4192275124635212","authorId":"4192275124635212","name":"小韭菜321","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4192275124635212","authorIdStr":"4192275124635212"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"巴菲特应该是被苹果坑惨了","listText":"巴菲特应该是被苹果坑惨了","text":"巴菲特应该是被苹果坑惨了","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/463569158832200","repostId":"1161964019","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1161964019","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1754141625,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1161964019?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2025-08-02 21:33","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"伯克希尔Q2净利润暴跌59%，现金储备接近历史高位，警告关税将打击业绩","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1161964019","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"伯克希尔Q2营业利润同比下降3.8%，净利润暴跌59%，现金储备为3440亿美元接近历史高位，对特朗普政府实施的严厉关税政策发出强烈警告。\"截至6月底，伯克希尔持有卡夫亨氏27.4%的股份。现金储备三年首次缩水，连续第11个季度净卖出股票第二季度，伯克希尔的现金储备接近历史高位但是为三年来首次下降，在股票市场采取了更加谨慎的态度，成为股票净卖方。","content":"<html><head></head><body><blockquote><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BRK.A\">伯克希尔</a>在财报中称，关税等国际贸易政策紧张局势在2025年上半年加速发展，对其多元化业务构成威胁，警告称，&#34;几乎所有经营业务以及股票投资都可能面临不利后果，这可能显著影响未来业绩&#34;。财报还显示，伯克希尔哈撒韦连续第11个季度净卖出股票，第二季度未进行股票回购，截至二季度末前五大持仓分别为<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AXP\">美国运通</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">苹果</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">美国银行</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/KO\">可口可乐</a>和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CVX\">雪佛龙</a>。</p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">伯克希尔Q2营业利润同比下降3.8%，净利润暴跌59%，现金储备3440亿美元接近历史高位但为三年来首次下降，对特朗普政府实施的严厉关税政策发出强烈警告。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">8月2日，伯克希尔二季度交出了一份喜忧参半的成绩单。营业利润111.6亿美元较去年同期下降3.8%，虽然降幅有限，但这一数字反映出公司核心业务面临的结构性压力。更值得注意的是，净利润123.7亿美元同比暴跌59%，这一巨幅下滑很大程度上受到投资组合估值变化的拖累。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">伯克希尔在财报中称，关税等国际贸易政策紧张局势在2025年上半年加速发展，对其多元化业务构成威胁，警告称，&#34;<strong>几乎所有经营业务以及股票投资都可能面临不利后果，这可能显著影响未来业绩</strong>&#34;。受贸易政策影响，旗下服装和玩具品牌收入出现不同程度下滑。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">尽管股价较历史高点下跌超过10%，该公司在2025年上半年并未回购任何股票。现年94岁的巴菲特此前宣布将于今年底卸任CEO职务，Greg Abel将接任这一角色。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>以下为伯克希尔二季度财报要点：</strong></p><ul style=\"\"><li><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>营收</strong>：Q2营收925.15亿美元，市场预期919.63亿美元，上年同期936.53亿美元；</p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>营业利润</strong>：Q2营业利润111.6亿美元，同比下降3.8%；</p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>净利润</strong>：Q2净利润123.7亿美元，市场预期107.03亿美元，上年同期303.48亿美元；上半年净利润170亿美元，同比下降60.6%；</p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>投资净收益</strong>：Q2投资净收益49.7亿美元，上年同期为187.5亿美元；</p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>每股收益</strong>：Q2 EPS为8601美元，市场预期7443美元，上年同期21122美元；</p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>现金储备</strong>：截至二季度末现金及现金等价物达3441亿美元，为三年来首次下降。</p></li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b982c5ce8e66a318c9c4acf834053ee0\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"792\" tg-height=\"796\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>核心业务进展</strong></p><ul style=\"\"><li><p><strong>保险承保：</strong>承保利润25亿美元，但因南加州野火损失约12亿美元而拖累业绩；保险承保业务收入19.9亿美元，同比下降12%；保险投资业务收入33.7亿美元，同比增长1.4%；</p></li><li><p><strong>BNSF铁路：</strong>营业效率提升，税后净利润同比增长19.5%至14.7亿美元；</p></li><li><p><strong>伯克希尔能源：</strong>营业利润7.02亿美元，同比增长7.2%；</p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>制造业、服务业及零售业务：</strong>营业利润36亿美元，同比增长6.5%。</p></li></ul><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>投资组合变化</strong></p><ul style=\"\"><li><p><strong>股票投资收益：</strong>第二季度投资收益64亿美元，但上半年为净损失710万美元；</p></li><li><p><strong>权益法投资重大减值：</strong>对<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/KHC\">卡夫亨氏</a>投资确认38亿美元减值损失。</p></li></ul><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">财报显示，从业务板块来看，BNSF铁路运输业务成为最大亮点，<strong>经营收入14.7亿美元，同比增长19%</strong>。这一强劲表现可能反映了美国商品运输需求的复苏，以及BNSF在定价能力方面的优势。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">相比之下，<strong>保险承保业务表现令人失望，营业收入19.9亿美元，同比下降12%</strong>。这一下滑可能反映了保险市场竞争加剧以及理赔成本上升的双重压力。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">不过，保险投资业务收入33.7亿美元，同比小幅增长1.4%，在当前利率环境下这一表现尚可接受。值得关注的是，保险浮存金规模维持在1740亿美元，继续为伯克希尔提供巨额低成本资金用于投资。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">财报还显示，伯克希尔哈撒韦<strong>连续第11个季度净卖出股票，第二季度未进行股票回购</strong>，截至二季度末前五大持仓分别为<strong>美国运通、苹果、美国银行、可口可乐和雪佛龙</strong>。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">此外，该公司还持有<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/OXY\">西方石油</a>公司的普通股股份，根据权益法进行核算。据伯克希尔披露，截至二季度末，其持有1.516亿股美国运通普通股，占美国运通已发行普通股的21.8%。</p><h2 id=\"id_969553336\">承保业务喜忧参半，巨灾风险管控仍是关键</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">保险承保业务呈现出典型的周期性特征。<strong>汽车保险公司Geico第二季度税前承保收益增长2%至18亿美元</strong>。该部门承保费用在此期间激增40%，因为公司加大支出以增加保单数量。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>虽然第二季度实现了25亿美元的承保利润，但上半年却因南加州野火造成约12亿美元损失而业绩承压。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">更值得关注的是，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601099\">太平洋</a>电力公司（PacifiCorp）面临的野火诉讼风险正在积聚。截至目前，该公司已累计计提约27.5亿美元的野火相关损失准备，但诉讼的最终结果仍存在较大不确定性。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">这一情况凸显了伯克希尔在巨灾风险管控方面面临的挑战。虽然公司长期以来以卓越的风险管理能力著称，但气候变化导致的极端天气事件频发，正在重新定义保险行业的风险边界。</p><h2 id=\"id_2797938345\">投资收益波动剧烈，权益法投资遭遇重大减值</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">投资业务的表现可谓冰火两重天。第二季度64亿美元的投资收益主要来自于持有证券市价上涨带来的76亿美元未实现收益，但这种纸面财富的波动性极大。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">更值得关注的是，<strong>公司对卡夫亨氏的投资确认了38亿美元的减值损失。</strong>该公司表示，公允价值的持续下跌以及当前经济和其他不确定性因素，导致其认定这一未实现损失非临时性。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">卡夫亨氏股份一直是巴菲特为数不多的投资败笔之一。自2015年卡夫与亨氏合并创建这家包装食品巨头以来，其股价已下跌62%。同期，标普500指数上涨了202%。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">伯克希尔在文件中表示，除了公允价值持续下跌外，该公司还考虑了伯克希尔放弃在卡夫亨氏董事会席位以及卡夫亨氏正在考虑战略交易等因素。伯克希尔表示：</p><blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">&#34;鉴于这些因素，以及当前经济和其他不确定性，我们认定未实现损失（即我们投资账面价值与公允价值之间的差异）属于非临时性损失。&#34;</p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">截至6月底，伯克希尔持有卡夫亨氏27.4%的股份。</p><h2 id=\"id_908051281\">现金储备三年首次缩水，连续第11个季度净卖出股票</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">第二季度，伯克希尔的现金储备接近历史高位但为三年来首次下降，在股票市场采取了更加谨慎的态度，成为股票净卖方。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">财报显示，伯克希尔现金储备在截至6月的三个月中下降1%至3440亿美元，这是<strong>三年来资金池首次缩水</strong>。此前，由于巴菲特难以找到投资机会，这些资金一直飙升至历史新高。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">第二季度，伯克希尔在股票市场采取了更加谨慎的做法，<strong>在此期间成为持仓股票的净卖方，抛售了约30亿美元的股票</strong>。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">而且，伯克希尔自身也没有进行任何股票回购。尽管该股在巴菲特5月宣布将于年底卸任首席执行官后下跌12%，但他已在回购方面观望约一年时间。</p><h2 id=\"id_331955462\">运营业务稳中有进，但增长动能有限</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">从运营业务来看，<strong>BNSF铁路业务表现相对亮眼，第二季度税后净利润同比增长19.5%</strong>，主要得益于运营效率提升和生产力改善。但货运量增长相对温和，反映了整体经济增长动能的不足。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">制造业、服务业和零售业务的表现则更为复杂。虽然总体收入有所增长，但不同子行业间分化明显。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">特别是消费产品板块，面临着国际贸易政策不确定性带来的订单延迟和出货推迟等问题，这种外部环境的不确定性正在逐步渗透到公司的各个业务层面。</p><h2 id=\"262e45af\">贸易政策冲击消费品牌业务</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">贸易不确定性对伯克希尔旗下消费品牌造成明显冲击。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">财报显示，服装品牌Fruit of the Loom年内收入下滑11.7%，Garan下降10.1%，玩具品牌Jazwares更是暴跌38.5%。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">公司在财报中明确指出，这些下滑&#34;部分源于国际贸易政策和关税带来的不确定性，导致订单和发货延迟&#34;。据央视新闻，特朗普宣布对多个美国贸易伙伴实施新的关税税率，将于8月7日生效。</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1700700604709","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>伯克希尔Q2净利润暴跌59%，现金储备接近历史高位，警告关税将打击业绩</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n伯克希尔Q2净利润暴跌59%，现金储备接近历史高位，警告关税将打击业绩\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2025-08-02 21:33 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3752521><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>伯克希尔在财报中称，关税等国际贸易政策紧张局势在2025年上半年加速发展，对其多元化业务构成威胁，警告称，\"几乎所有经营业务以及股票投资都可能面临不利后果，这可能显著影响未来业绩\"。财报还显示，伯克希尔哈撒韦连续第11个季度净卖出股票，第二季度未进行股票回购，截至二季度末前五大持仓分别为美国运通、苹果、美国银行、可口可乐和雪佛龙。伯克希尔Q2营业利润同比下降3.8%，净利润暴跌59%，现金储备...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3752521\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c1b9fef028787bba142fa31212ae49d2","relate_stocks":{"LU1571399168.USD":"ALLSPRING GLOBAL LONG/SHORT EQUITY \"IP\" (USD) ACC","BRK.A":"伯克希尔","BK4588":"碎股","LU0683600562.USD":"AB SELECT US EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","IE00B3S45H60.SGD":"Neuberger Berman US Multicap Opportunities A Acc SGD-H","IE00BJLML261.HKD":"HSBC GLOBAL EQUITY INDEX \"HCH\" (HKD) ACC","LU1914381329.SGD":"Allianz Best Styles Global Equity Cl ET Acc H2-SGD","LU0157215616.USD":"FIDELITY GLOBAL FOCUS \"A\" INC","LU0787776722.HKD":"AB SELECT US EQUITY PORTFOLIO \"A\" (HKD) ACC","LU0971096721.USD":"富达环球金融服务 A","LU0149725797.USD":"汇丰美国股市经济规模基金","BRK.B":"伯克希尔B","LU2168564495.EUR":"AZ ALLOCATION - TREND \"AI\" (EUR) ACC","IE0034235303.USD":"PINEBRIDGE US RESEARCH ENHANCED CORE EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0234570918.USD":"高盛全球核心股票组合Acc Close","IE00BK4W5L77.USD":"HSBC GLOBAL FUNDS ICAV US EQUITY INDEX \"HC\" (USD) ACC","LU0154236417.USD":"BGF US FLEXIBLE EQUITY \"A2\" ACC","LU0170899867.USD":"EASTSPRING INVESTMENTS WORLD VALUE EQUITY  \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0417517546.SGD":"Allianz US Equity Cl AT Acc SGD"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3752521","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1161964019","content_text":"伯克希尔在财报中称，关税等国际贸易政策紧张局势在2025年上半年加速发展，对其多元化业务构成威胁，警告称，\"几乎所有经营业务以及股票投资都可能面临不利后果，这可能显著影响未来业绩\"。财报还显示，伯克希尔哈撒韦连续第11个季度净卖出股票，第二季度未进行股票回购，截至二季度末前五大持仓分别为美国运通、苹果、美国银行、可口可乐和雪佛龙。伯克希尔Q2营业利润同比下降3.8%，净利润暴跌59%，现金储备3440亿美元接近历史高位但为三年来首次下降，对特朗普政府实施的严厉关税政策发出强烈警告。8月2日，伯克希尔二季度交出了一份喜忧参半的成绩单。营业利润111.6亿美元较去年同期下降3.8%，虽然降幅有限，但这一数字反映出公司核心业务面临的结构性压力。更值得注意的是，净利润123.7亿美元同比暴跌59%，这一巨幅下滑很大程度上受到投资组合估值变化的拖累。伯克希尔在财报中称，关税等国际贸易政策紧张局势在2025年上半年加速发展，对其多元化业务构成威胁，警告称，\"几乎所有经营业务以及股票投资都可能面临不利后果，这可能显著影响未来业绩\"。受贸易政策影响，旗下服装和玩具品牌收入出现不同程度下滑。尽管股价较历史高点下跌超过10%，该公司在2025年上半年并未回购任何股票。现年94岁的巴菲特此前宣布将于今年底卸任CEO职务，Greg Abel将接任这一角色。以下为伯克希尔二季度财报要点：营收：Q2营收925.15亿美元，市场预期919.63亿美元，上年同期936.53亿美元；营业利润：Q2营业利润111.6亿美元，同比下降3.8%；净利润：Q2净利润123.7亿美元，市场预期107.03亿美元，上年同期303.48亿美元；上半年净利润170亿美元，同比下降60.6%；投资净收益：Q2投资净收益49.7亿美元，上年同期为187.5亿美元；每股收益：Q2 EPS为8601美元，市场预期7443美元，上年同期21122美元；现金储备：截至二季度末现金及现金等价物达3441亿美元，为三年来首次下降。核心业务进展保险承保：承保利润25亿美元，但因南加州野火损失约12亿美元而拖累业绩；保险承保业务收入19.9亿美元，同比下降12%；保险投资业务收入33.7亿美元，同比增长1.4%；BNSF铁路：营业效率提升，税后净利润同比增长19.5%至14.7亿美元；伯克希尔能源：营业利润7.02亿美元，同比增长7.2%；制造业、服务业及零售业务：营业利润36亿美元，同比增长6.5%。投资组合变化股票投资收益：第二季度投资收益64亿美元，但上半年为净损失710万美元；权益法投资重大减值：对卡夫亨氏投资确认38亿美元减值损失。财报显示，从业务板块来看，BNSF铁路运输业务成为最大亮点，经营收入14.7亿美元，同比增长19%。这一强劲表现可能反映了美国商品运输需求的复苏，以及BNSF在定价能力方面的优势。相比之下，保险承保业务表现令人失望，营业收入19.9亿美元，同比下降12%。这一下滑可能反映了保险市场竞争加剧以及理赔成本上升的双重压力。不过，保险投资业务收入33.7亿美元，同比小幅增长1.4%，在当前利率环境下这一表现尚可接受。值得关注的是，保险浮存金规模维持在1740亿美元，继续为伯克希尔提供巨额低成本资金用于投资。财报还显示，伯克希尔哈撒韦连续第11个季度净卖出股票，第二季度未进行股票回购，截至二季度末前五大持仓分别为美国运通、苹果、美国银行、可口可乐和雪佛龙。此外，该公司还持有西方石油公司的普通股股份，根据权益法进行核算。据伯克希尔披露，截至二季度末，其持有1.516亿股美国运通普通股，占美国运通已发行普通股的21.8%。承保业务喜忧参半，巨灾风险管控仍是关键保险承保业务呈现出典型的周期性特征。汽车保险公司Geico第二季度税前承保收益增长2%至18亿美元。该部门承保费用在此期间激增40%，因为公司加大支出以增加保单数量。虽然第二季度实现了25亿美元的承保利润，但上半年却因南加州野火造成约12亿美元损失而业绩承压。更值得关注的是，太平洋电力公司（PacifiCorp）面临的野火诉讼风险正在积聚。截至目前，该公司已累计计提约27.5亿美元的野火相关损失准备，但诉讼的最终结果仍存在较大不确定性。这一情况凸显了伯克希尔在巨灾风险管控方面面临的挑战。虽然公司长期以来以卓越的风险管理能力著称，但气候变化导致的极端天气事件频发，正在重新定义保险行业的风险边界。投资收益波动剧烈，权益法投资遭遇重大减值投资业务的表现可谓冰火两重天。第二季度64亿美元的投资收益主要来自于持有证券市价上涨带来的76亿美元未实现收益，但这种纸面财富的波动性极大。更值得关注的是，公司对卡夫亨氏的投资确认了38亿美元的减值损失。该公司表示，公允价值的持续下跌以及当前经济和其他不确定性因素，导致其认定这一未实现损失非临时性。卡夫亨氏股份一直是巴菲特为数不多的投资败笔之一。自2015年卡夫与亨氏合并创建这家包装食品巨头以来，其股价已下跌62%。同期，标普500指数上涨了202%。伯克希尔在文件中表示，除了公允价值持续下跌外，该公司还考虑了伯克希尔放弃在卡夫亨氏董事会席位以及卡夫亨氏正在考虑战略交易等因素。伯克希尔表示：\"鉴于这些因素，以及当前经济和其他不确定性，我们认定未实现损失（即我们投资账面价值与公允价值之间的差异）属于非临时性损失。\"截至6月底，伯克希尔持有卡夫亨氏27.4%的股份。现金储备三年首次缩水，连续第11个季度净卖出股票第二季度，伯克希尔的现金储备接近历史高位但为三年来首次下降，在股票市场采取了更加谨慎的态度，成为股票净卖方。财报显示，伯克希尔现金储备在截至6月的三个月中下降1%至3440亿美元，这是三年来资金池首次缩水。此前，由于巴菲特难以找到投资机会，这些资金一直飙升至历史新高。第二季度，伯克希尔在股票市场采取了更加谨慎的做法，在此期间成为持仓股票的净卖方，抛售了约30亿美元的股票。而且，伯克希尔自身也没有进行任何股票回购。尽管该股在巴菲特5月宣布将于年底卸任首席执行官后下跌12%，但他已在回购方面观望约一年时间。运营业务稳中有进，但增长动能有限从运营业务来看，BNSF铁路业务表现相对亮眼，第二季度税后净利润同比增长19.5%，主要得益于运营效率提升和生产力改善。但货运量增长相对温和，反映了整体经济增长动能的不足。制造业、服务业和零售业务的表现则更为复杂。虽然总体收入有所增长，但不同子行业间分化明显。特别是消费产品板块，面临着国际贸易政策不确定性带来的订单延迟和出货推迟等问题，这种外部环境的不确定性正在逐步渗透到公司的各个业务层面。贸易政策冲击消费品牌业务贸易不确定性对伯克希尔旗下消费品牌造成明显冲击。财报显示，服装品牌Fruit of the Loom年内收入下滑11.7%，Garan下降10.1%，玩具品牌Jazwares更是暴跌38.5%。公司在财报中明确指出，这些下滑\"部分源于国际贸易政策和关税带来的不确定性，导致订单和发货延迟\"。据央视新闻，特朗普宣布对多个美国贸易伙伴实施新的关税税率，将于8月7日生效。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"BRK.A":1,"BRK.B":1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":431,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":457118950461976,"gmtCreate":1752637992236,"gmtModify":1752637993456,"author":{"id":"4192275124635212","authorId":"4192275124635212","name":"小韭菜321","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4192275124635212","authorIdStr":"4192275124635212"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TEM\">$Tempus AI(TEM)$&nbsp;</a> 黎明前最后的黑暗","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TEM\">$Tempus AI(TEM)$&nbsp;</a> 黎明前最后的黑暗","text":"$Tempus AI(TEM)$ 黎明前最后的黑暗","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/457118950461976","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1301,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":445861534872096,"gmtCreate":1749858612397,"gmtModify":1749858613359,"author":{"id":"4192275124635212","authorId":"4192275124635212","name":"小韭菜321","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4192275124635212","authorIdStr":"4192275124635212"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"怕毛啊，坚持后还不是照样冲上70块了","listText":"怕毛啊，坚持后还不是照样冲上70块了","text":"怕毛啊，坚持后还不是照样冲上70块了","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/445861534872096","repostId":"1111885307","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1111885307","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"重大公告快速掌握","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎公告助手","id":"1094185691","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f241068b466f5f9316243a75366834d5"},"pubTimestamp":1749852087,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1111885307?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2025-06-14 06:01","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Tempus AI, Inc. 董事 Theodore Leonsis 减持205847股","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1111885307","media":"老虎公告助手","summary":"Tempus AI, Inc. 董事 Theodore Leonsis 于2025年6月11日进行了两次减持，共减持205847股Class A普通股，分别以67.59美元及68.27美元出售。这次减持可能对公司股票价格造成一定压力，投资者需密切关注。","content":"Tempus AI, Inc. 董事 Theodore Leonsis 于2025年6月11日进行了两次减持，共减持205847股Class A普通股，分别以67.59美元及68.27美元出售。这次减持可能对公司股票价格造成一定压力，投资者需密切关注。","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tempus AI, Inc. 董事 Theodore Leonsis 减持205847股</title>\n<style 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Leonsis 于2025年6月11日进行了两次减持，共减持205847股Class A普通股，分别以67.59美元及68.27美元出售。这次减持可能对公司股票价格造成一定压力，投资者需密切关注。\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TEM":"Tempus AI"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1111885307","content_text":"Tempus AI, Inc. 董事 Theodore Leonsis 于2025年6月11日进行了两次减持，共减持205847股Class A普通股，分别以67.59美元及68.27美元出售。这次减持可能对公司股票价格造成一定压力，投资者需密切关注。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TEM":1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":706,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":437485899059600,"gmtCreate":1747838908836,"gmtModify":1747838910243,"author":{"id":"4192275124635212","authorId":"4192275124635212","name":"小韭菜321","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4192275124635212","authorIdStr":"4192275124635212"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">$英伟达(NVDA)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v> 英伟达废了","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">$英伟达(NVDA)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v> 英伟达废了","text":"$英伟达(NVDA)$ 英伟达废了","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/437485899059600","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":620,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":365385981010120,"gmtCreate":1730240469079,"gmtModify":1730252330152,"author":{"id":"4192275124635212","authorId":"4192275124635212","name":"小韭菜321","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4192275124635212","authorIdStr":"4192275124635212"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XAUUSD.FOREX\">$黄金/美元(XAUUSD.FOREX)$&nbsp;</a> 做空的朋友们还好吗","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XAUUSD.FOREX\">$黄金/美元(XAUUSD.FOREX)$&nbsp;</a> 做空的朋友们还好吗","text":"$黄金/美元(XAUUSD.FOREX)$ 做空的朋友们还好吗","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/365385981010120","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":913,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":499047236649848,"gmtCreate":1762862779907,"gmtModify":1762862782408,"author":{"id":"4192275124635212","authorId":"4192275124635212","name":"小韭菜321","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4192275124635212","authorIdStr":"4192275124635212"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"信了他，你的筹码就丢了","listText":"信了他，你的筹码就丢了","text":"信了他，你的筹码就丢了","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/499047236649848","repostId":"2582330244","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2582330244","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1762843905,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2582330244?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2025-11-11 14:51","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"“大空头”炮轰科技巨头诈欺：人为低估折旧抬高利润，甲骨文盈利或被夸大26.9%、Meta夸大20.8%","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2582330244","media":"格隆汇","summary":"11月11日，电影《大空头》男主角原型、传奇对冲基金经理Michael Burry在披露大手沽空科技巨头后，再在社交平台发文称，科技巨头透过“人为”延长资产“有效使用寿命”来低估折旧，从而抬高利润，这是“现代最常见的诈欺之一”。不过，正是超大规模科技企业如Meta及甲骨文都在这样做，据他估计，企业在2026年至2028年间将低估折旧1760亿美元。Burry估计，到2028年，甲骨文盈利或被夸大26.9%、Meta则夸大20.8%，情况可能更差。","content":"<html><body><div>\n<p>11月11日，电影《大空头》(The Big Short)男主角原型、传奇对冲基金经理Michael Burry在披露大手沽空科技巨头后，再在社交平台发文称，科技巨头透过“人为”延长资产“有效使用寿命”来低估折旧，从而抬高利润，这是“现代最常见的诈欺(common frauds)之一”。</p><p>Burry指出，科技企业大规模增加资本开支，采购<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">英伟达</a>芯片和<span>服务器</span>以扩充<span>算力</span>，这些产品周期通常只有2至3年，但部分公司将折旧周期延长至6年，折旧年限不应被延长。不过，正是超大规模科技企业如<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/META\">Meta</a>及<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ORCL\">甲骨文</a>都在这样做，据他估计，企业在2026年至2028年间将低估折旧1760亿美元。Burry估计，到2028年，甲骨文盈利或被夸大26.9%、Meta则夸大20.8%，情况可能更差。然而，布瑞未有说明详细原因，只表示更多详情将于11月25日发布。</p><p>此前，美国<span>银行</span>分析师Justin Post于9月曾发表报告指，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">谷歌</a>母公司Alphabet、Meta和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">亚马逊</a>资本支出在2024年和2025年大幅增长，其折旧费用必然会在2026年后加速。推算到2027年，仅这3家公司折旧费用，市场普遍预测就可能比实际情况低了近164亿美元，这意味着它们未来实际盈利能力或远低于当前的市场共识。</p>\n<div>\n<p>美股频道更多独家策划、专家专栏，免费查阅&gt;&gt;</p>\n<div>\r\n            责任编辑：钟离\r\n          </div>\n</div>\n</div></body></html>","source":"jinrongjie_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" 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Burry在披露大手沽空科技巨头后，再在社交平台发文称，科技巨头透过“人为”延长资产“有效使用寿命”来低估折旧，从而抬高利润，这是“现代最常见的诈欺(common frauds)之一”。Burry指出，科技企业大规模增加资本开支，采购英伟达芯片和服务器以扩充算力，这些产品周期通常只有2至3年，但...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://usstock.jrj.com.cn/2025/11/11145154125924.shtml\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"LU1791710400.SGD":"Fidelity Global Demographics A-ACC-SGD","LU1934455863.HKD":"AB SICAV I LOW VOLATILITY TOTAL RETURN EQUITY PORT \"A\" (HKD) ACC","LU0154236417.USD":"BGF US FLEXIBLE EQUITY \"A2\" ACC","SG9999014906.USD":"大华全球优质成长基金Acc USD","BK4524":"宅经济概念","LU0208291251.USD":"FRANKLIN MUTUAL U.S. VALUE \"A\" (USD) INC","IE00BJTD4N35.SGD":"Neuberger Berman US Long Short Equity A1  Acc SGD-H","BK4097":"系统软件","LU2381873111.SGD":"BGF SYSTEMATIC GLOBAL EQUITY HIGH INCOME \"A6\" (SGDHDG) INC","LU2462157665.USD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL INCOME \"A\" (USD) INC","GB00B4QBRK32.GBP":"FUNDSMITH EQUITY \"R\" (GBP) INC","LU1992135399.USD":"Allianz Global Intelligent Cities AT 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SGD-H"},"source_url":"https://usstock.jrj.com.cn/2025/11/11145154125924.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2582330244","content_text":"11月11日，电影《大空头》(The Big Short)男主角原型、传奇对冲基金经理Michael Burry在披露大手沽空科技巨头后，再在社交平台发文称，科技巨头透过“人为”延长资产“有效使用寿命”来低估折旧，从而抬高利润，这是“现代最常见的诈欺(common frauds)之一”。Burry指出，科技企业大规模增加资本开支，采购英伟达芯片和服务器以扩充算力，这些产品周期通常只有2至3年，但部分公司将折旧周期延长至6年，折旧年限不应被延长。不过，正是超大规模科技企业如Meta及甲骨文都在这样做，据他估计，企业在2026年至2028年间将低估折旧1760亿美元。Burry估计，到2028年，甲骨文盈利或被夸大26.9%、Meta则夸大20.8%，情况可能更差。然而，布瑞未有说明详细原因，只表示更多详情将于11月25日发布。此前，美国银行分析师Justin Post于9月曾发表报告指，谷歌母公司Alphabet、Meta和亚马逊资本支出在2024年和2025年大幅增长，其折旧费用必然会在2026年后加速。推算到2027年，仅这3家公司折旧费用，市场普遍预测就可能比实际情况低了近164亿美元，这意味着它们未来实际盈利能力或远低于当前的市场共识。\n\n美股频道更多独家策划、专家专栏，免费查阅>>\n\r\n            责任编辑：钟离","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"XMAG":1.5,"FB":1.5,"ORCL":1.5,"META":1.5}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":499024532521496,"gmtCreate":1762857209036,"gmtModify":1762857211340,"author":{"id":"4192275124635212","authorId":"4192275124635212","name":"小韭菜321","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4192275124635212","authorIdStr":"4192275124635212"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"叫人去接盘","listText":"叫人去接盘","text":"叫人去接盘","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/499024532521496","repostId":"2582339194","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2582339194","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"追踪全球财经热点，精选影响您财富的资讯，投资理财必备神器！","home_visible":1,"media_name":"华尔街见闻","id":"1084101182","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e"},"pubTimestamp":1762837077,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2582339194?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2025-11-11 12:57","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"英伟达财报前，花旗高喊：买入！AI需求远超供应，泡沫之说站不住脚","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2582339194","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"花旗预计英伟达即将于11月19日公布的财报将实现“营收超预期和指引上调”的强劲表现，维持“买入”评级并将目标价上调至220美元。其认为，当前限制英伟达增长的并非AI需求疲软，而是CoWoS封装等供应链瓶颈，AI泡沫论站不住脚。","content":"<html><head></head><body><blockquote><p>花旗预计英伟达即将于11月19日公布的财报将实现“营收超预期和指引上调”的强劲表现，维持“买入”评级并将目标价上调至220美元。其认为，当前限制英伟达增长的并非AI需求疲软，而是CoWoS封装等供应链瓶颈，AI泡沫论站不住脚。</p></blockquote><p>在人工智能（AI）领域的投资狂潮引发市场对潜在泡沫的激烈辩论之际，花旗集团为<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">英伟达</a>投下了关键的信任票。</p><p>据追风交易台消息，花旗11月10日发布的一份研究报告，维持对英伟达股票的“买入”评级，并将目标价从210美元上调至220美元。更引人注目的是，花旗开启了对该股的“30天短期看涨”观点，押注其即将于11月19日公布的财报将实现“营收超预期和指引上调”（beat and raise）的强劲表现。</p><p>这份报告直接回应了投资者对AI资本支出“虚火”的担忧。分析师Atif Malik和Papa Sylla在报告中指出，尽管存在关于AI投资资金来源的疑虑，但一个更基本面的事实是，由于先进封装（CoWoS）产能受限，AI芯片的供应在2026年之前都将持续低于需求。</p><p>花旗暗示英伟达的股价在当前水平仍具吸引力。报告称，英伟达目前的市盈率约为28倍，相较于AI同行<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AVGO\">博通</a>的38倍和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMD\">AMD</a>的37倍，估值更具优势。</p><h2 id=\"id_3333557838\">业绩超预期在即？</h2><p>花旗预计，英伟达即将公布的业绩将轻松超越华尔街的普遍预期。报告预测，公司截至10月的季度销售额将达到570亿美元，高于市场平均预期的约550亿美元。</p><p>对于未来的展望，花旗预计英伟达给出的1月季度销售指引将达到620亿美元，同样高于市场约610亿美元的预期。</p><p>报告指出，这一乐观预测的背后，是英伟达Blackwell架构GPU的强劲出货势头。花旗分析师认为，英伟达在GTC Washington大会上透露的已出货600万个GPU的信息，是其10月季度和1月季度业绩可能超预期的有力信号。</p><p>花旗在报告中称，其模型假设英伟达的数据中心销售额在10月和1月季度将分别环比增长24%和12%，而市场预期分别为19%和15%。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/031585986cc89816b6348d0ff63aa67e\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"780\" tg-height=\"695\"/></p><h2 id=\"id_3443654422\">AI泡沫论被驳斥</h2><p>针对市场上愈演愈烈的“AI泡沫”论调，花旗提出了截然相反的观点。报告的核心论点是，当前AI芯片市场的主要矛盾是供不应求，而非需求不足。</p><blockquote><p>“尽管存在围绕AI资本支出泡沫的债务和循环融资组合的担忧，但我们从根本上看到，由于CoWoS产能限制，AI供应在2026年之前都将低于需求，并可能在2027年的某个时候才能赶上。”</p></blockquote><p>报告写道。这一判断意味着，旺盛的需求是真实存在的，而非投机炒作的产物。</p><p>为了进一步佐证需求端的强劲，花旗还指出，大型云服务提供商（hyperscaler）的云收入正从2025年开始出现拐点，并有望在2026年继续加速增长，其主要驱动力正是企业级AI应用的普及。</p><h2 id=\"id_3673199009\">上调目标价至220美元</h2><p>基于对英伟达增长前景的强烈信心，花旗不仅上调了其目标价，还全面提升了对未来的财务预测。新的220美元目标价基于对英伟达2026日历年每股收益（EPS）7.24美元的预测，并给予了30倍的市盈率。</p><p>报告显示，花旗将英伟达2026、2027和2028财年的EPS预测分别上调了2%、7%和8%，以更好地匹配该行修正后的全球AI资本支出模型。值得注意的是，花旗在模型中继续假设来自中国数据中心的销售额为零，这意味着任何政策上的缓和都可能带来额外的上行空间。</p><h2 id=\"id_3407873464\">AI芯片市场远未见顶？</h2><p>花旗的看涨观点不仅限于英伟达自身，也延伸至整个AI半导体市场。报告大幅上调了对未来市场规模的预测，认为AI的浪潮远未达到顶峰。</p><p>根据花旗的最新模型，到2028年，全球数据中心半导体市场的总规模（TAM）预计将达到6540亿美元，比此前5630亿美元的预测值高出16%。报告解释称，上调的主要原因是“来自OpenAI等关键AI玩家的需求高于预期”。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/253726fc621852b77835e2bd3bb12915\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"823\" tg-height=\"472\"/></p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" 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left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n英伟达财报前，花旗高喊：买入！AI需求远超供应，泡沫之说站不住脚\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2025-11-11 12:57 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3759111><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>花旗预计英伟达即将于11月19日公布的财报将实现“营收超预期和指引上调”的强劲表现，维持“买入”评级并将目标价上调至220美元。其认为，当前限制英伟达增长的并非AI需求疲软，而是CoWoS封装等供应链瓶颈，AI泡沫论站不住脚。在人工智能（AI）领域的投资狂潮引发市场对潜在泡沫的激烈辩论之际，花旗集团为英伟达投下了关键的信任票。据追风交易台消息，花旗11月10日发布的一份研究报告，维持对英伟达股票的...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3759111\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3f1c866c487eb9e101f73a62d4495ce9","relate_stocks":{"NVDA":"英伟达"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3759111","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2582339194","content_text":"花旗预计英伟达即将于11月19日公布的财报将实现“营收超预期和指引上调”的强劲表现，维持“买入”评级并将目标价上调至220美元。其认为，当前限制英伟达增长的并非AI需求疲软，而是CoWoS封装等供应链瓶颈，AI泡沫论站不住脚。在人工智能（AI）领域的投资狂潮引发市场对潜在泡沫的激烈辩论之际，花旗集团为英伟达投下了关键的信任票。据追风交易台消息，花旗11月10日发布的一份研究报告，维持对英伟达股票的“买入”评级，并将目标价从210美元上调至220美元。更引人注目的是，花旗开启了对该股的“30天短期看涨”观点，押注其即将于11月19日公布的财报将实现“营收超预期和指引上调”（beat and raise）的强劲表现。这份报告直接回应了投资者对AI资本支出“虚火”的担忧。分析师Atif Malik和Papa Sylla在报告中指出，尽管存在关于AI投资资金来源的疑虑，但一个更基本面的事实是，由于先进封装（CoWoS）产能受限，AI芯片的供应在2026年之前都将持续低于需求。花旗暗示英伟达的股价在当前水平仍具吸引力。报告称，英伟达目前的市盈率约为28倍，相较于AI同行博通的38倍和AMD的37倍，估值更具优势。业绩超预期在即？花旗预计，英伟达即将公布的业绩将轻松超越华尔街的普遍预期。报告预测，公司截至10月的季度销售额将达到570亿美元，高于市场平均预期的约550亿美元。对于未来的展望，花旗预计英伟达给出的1月季度销售指引将达到620亿美元，同样高于市场约610亿美元的预期。报告指出，这一乐观预测的背后，是英伟达Blackwell架构GPU的强劲出货势头。花旗分析师认为，英伟达在GTC Washington大会上透露的已出货600万个GPU的信息，是其10月季度和1月季度业绩可能超预期的有力信号。花旗在报告中称，其模型假设英伟达的数据中心销售额在10月和1月季度将分别环比增长24%和12%，而市场预期分别为19%和15%。AI泡沫论被驳斥针对市场上愈演愈烈的“AI泡沫”论调，花旗提出了截然相反的观点。报告的核心论点是，当前AI芯片市场的主要矛盾是供不应求，而非需求不足。“尽管存在围绕AI资本支出泡沫的债务和循环融资组合的担忧，但我们从根本上看到，由于CoWoS产能限制，AI供应在2026年之前都将低于需求，并可能在2027年的某个时候才能赶上。”报告写道。这一判断意味着，旺盛的需求是真实存在的，而非投机炒作的产物。为了进一步佐证需求端的强劲，花旗还指出，大型云服务提供商（hyperscaler）的云收入正从2025年开始出现拐点，并有望在2026年继续加速增长，其主要驱动力正是企业级AI应用的普及。上调目标价至220美元基于对英伟达增长前景的强烈信心，花旗不仅上调了其目标价，还全面提升了对未来的财务预测。新的220美元目标价基于对英伟达2026日历年每股收益（EPS）7.24美元的预测，并给予了30倍的市盈率。报告显示，花旗将英伟达2026、2027和2028财年的EPS预测分别上调了2%、7%和8%，以更好地匹配该行修正后的全球AI资本支出模型。值得注意的是，花旗在模型中继续假设来自中国数据中心的销售额为零，这意味着任何政策上的缓和都可能带来额外的上行空间。AI芯片市场远未见顶？花旗的看涨观点不仅限于英伟达自身，也延伸至整个AI半导体市场。报告大幅上调了对未来市场规模的预测，认为AI的浪潮远未达到顶峰。根据花旗的最新模型，到2028年，全球数据中心半导体市场的总规模（TAM）预计将达到6540亿美元，比此前5630亿美元的预测值高出16%。报告解释称，上调的主要原因是“来自OpenAI等关键AI玩家的需求高于预期”。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NVDA":1.5}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":415268404765144,"gmtCreate":1742403716604,"gmtModify":1742403717844,"author":{"id":"4192275124635212","authorId":"4192275124635212","name":"小韭菜321","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4192275124635212","authorIdStr":"4192275124635212"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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