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04-01

花期已经下调价格了啊

“存储巨头”美光再跌10%，亮眼财报后已跌30%，华尔街依旧力挺

02-05

真正从事传统技术行业不懂 AI 的才用 Figma，懂 AI 的不如用 Pencil

@秋刀鱼YM:$Figma(FIG)$ 真正从事Ai领域相关的，才知道Figma的潜力有多大，20-25区间持续大规模建仓。

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09:03","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"“存储巨头”美光再跌10%，亮眼财报后已跌30%，华尔街依旧力挺","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2623373719","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"华尔街43位分析师中38位维持买入评级，当前华尔街对于美光的共识目标价为527.60美元，摩根大通则坚守550美元目标价。分析师认为当前7倍预期市盈率估值严重低估。不过未来需求预测不确定性、行业周期性及美光250亿美元资本开支压力仍是潜在风险。","content":"<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MU\">美光科技</a>股价持续重挫，华尔街认为其正经历一场与强劲基本面严重背离的恐慌性抛售。</p><p>3月30日周一，美光股价单日跳水近10%，自3月18日发布超预期财报以来累计跌幅已达30%。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c93597d4b643442bb3c6dd0568bdf5b7\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"548\"></p><p>（周一美光科技股股价一度跌超10%）</p><p>与此同时，华尔街的看涨阵营几乎纹丝未动，43位分析师中有38位维持买入或强力买入评级，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">摩根大通</a>坚守550美元目标价。</p><p>华尔街见闻提及，上周<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">谷歌</a>宣布推出TurboQuant算法，声称可显著降低AI模型运行时的内存需求。消息一出，存储及半导体设备板块即遭重创，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LRCX\">Lam</a> Research当天单日下挫9.4%，美光过去一周累计下跌15.5%。</p><h2 id=\"id_546550980\">财报数据强劲，分析师集体按兵不动</h2><p>面对股价暴跌，华尔街依旧力挺。</p><p><strong>43位覆盖美光的分析师中，38位维持买入或强力买入评级</strong>，仅3位评级持有、2位评级卖出<strong>。摩根大通维持550美元目标价及买入评级，其多头逻辑建立在TurboQuant实际上并未动摇的基本面之上。</strong></p><p>分析师同时指出，TurboQuant类算法带来的效率提升往往会推动AI应用的整体普及，从而在总量层面扩大内存需求，并不会出现永久性地压缩市场规模。</p><p><strong>财务数据确实为这一立场提供了支撑。</strong>公司第二财季营收同比从80.53亿美元大幅跃升至238.6亿美元，GAAP毛利率从36.8%扩张至56.0%；第三财季指引营收335亿美元，毛利率进一步提升至67%，均指向历史纪录水平。</p><p>对于一家预期营收、每股收益和自由现金流均将创历史新高的公司而言，当前7倍的预期市盈率令人瞩目，0.4的PEG比率则表明，市场预期该公司业绩将出现显著放缓，而公司自身的业绩指引并未支持这一预期。</p><p>CEO Sanjay Mehrotra表示由于供应紧张，主要客户目前只能获得其需求量的\"二分之一至三分之二\"。Sanjay Mehrotra称：</p><blockquote><p>包括美光行业领先的HBM4在内，2026全年HBM供应已全部完成预订。</p></blockquote><h2 id=\"id_2888835666\">风险犹存，需求预测仍是核心变量</h2><p>在近乎一边倒的看涨共识背后，需求预测仍是核心变量。</p><p><strong>分析认为若<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOGL\">谷歌</a>存储新技术确实引发了结构性转变，那么支撑管理层指引与分析师目标价的需求预测，可能均过于乐观。</strong></p><p><strong>此外，存储芯片行业本身具有显著的周期性，且资本开支压力沉重。</strong></p><p>美光计划在2026财年投入约250亿美元资本开支，一旦需求出现阶段性真空，后果将相当痛苦。与此同时，公司内部人士的减持动向也构成一个微小的警示信号。</p><p><strong>当前华尔街对于美光的共识目标价为527.60美元，其实现仍有赖于后续季度业绩的持续兑现。</strong></p><p>但就当前而言，股价与企业基本面之间的裂口已足够宽，这场抛售究竟是入场机会还是价值陷阱，答案或许将在下一个季度的供需数据中逐步揭晓。</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>“存储巨头”美光再跌10%，亮眼财报后已跌30%，华尔街依旧力挺</title>\n<style 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}\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n“存储巨头”美光再跌10%，亮眼财报后已跌30%，华尔街依旧力挺\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1084101182\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">华尔街见闻 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2026-03-31 09:03</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MU\">美光科技</a>股价持续重挫，华尔街认为其正经历一场与强劲基本面严重背离的恐慌性抛售。</p><p>3月30日周一，美光股价单日跳水近10%，自3月18日发布超预期财报以来累计跌幅已达30%。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c93597d4b643442bb3c6dd0568bdf5b7\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"548\"></p><p>（周一美光科技股股价一度跌超10%）</p><p>与此同时，华尔街的看涨阵营几乎纹丝未动，43位分析师中有38位维持买入或强力买入评级，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">摩根大通</a>坚守550美元目标价。</p><p>华尔街见闻提及，上周<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">谷歌</a>宣布推出TurboQuant算法，声称可显著降低AI模型运行时的内存需求。消息一出，存储及半导体设备板块即遭重创，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LRCX\">Lam</a> Research当天单日下挫9.4%，美光过去一周累计下跌15.5%。</p><h2 id=\"id_546550980\">财报数据强劲，分析师集体按兵不动</h2><p>面对股价暴跌，华尔街依旧力挺。</p><p><strong>43位覆盖美光的分析师中，38位维持买入或强力买入评级</strong>，仅3位评级持有、2位评级卖出<strong>。摩根大通维持550美元目标价及买入评级，其多头逻辑建立在TurboQuant实际上并未动摇的基本面之上。</strong></p><p>分析师同时指出，TurboQuant类算法带来的效率提升往往会推动AI应用的整体普及，从而在总量层面扩大内存需求，并不会出现永久性地压缩市场规模。</p><p><strong>财务数据确实为这一立场提供了支撑。</strong>公司第二财季营收同比从80.53亿美元大幅跃升至238.6亿美元，GAAP毛利率从36.8%扩张至56.0%；第三财季指引营收335亿美元，毛利率进一步提升至67%，均指向历史纪录水平。</p><p>对于一家预期营收、每股收益和自由现金流均将创历史新高的公司而言，当前7倍的预期市盈率令人瞩目，0.4的PEG比率则表明，市场预期该公司业绩将出现显著放缓，而公司自身的业绩指引并未支持这一预期。</p><p>CEO Sanjay Mehrotra表示由于供应紧张，主要客户目前只能获得其需求量的\"二分之一至三分之二\"。Sanjay Mehrotra称：</p><blockquote><p>包括美光行业领先的HBM4在内，2026全年HBM供应已全部完成预订。</p></blockquote><h2 id=\"id_2888835666\">风险犹存，需求预测仍是核心变量</h2><p>在近乎一边倒的看涨共识背后，需求预测仍是核心变量。</p><p><strong>分析认为若<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOGL\">谷歌</a>存储新技术确实引发了结构性转变，那么支撑管理层指引与分析师目标价的需求预测，可能均过于乐观。</strong></p><p><strong>此外，存储芯片行业本身具有显著的周期性，且资本开支压力沉重。</strong></p><p>美光计划在2026财年投入约250亿美元资本开支，一旦需求出现阶段性真空，后果将相当痛苦。与此同时，公司内部人士的减持动向也构成一个微小的警示信号。</p><p><strong>当前华尔街对于美光的共识目标价为527.60美元，其实现仍有赖于后续季度业绩的持续兑现。</strong></p><p>但就当前而言，股价与企业基本面之间的裂口已足够宽，这场抛售究竟是入场机会还是价值陷阱，答案或许将在下一个季度的供需数据中逐步揭晓。</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"LU0792757196.USD":"TEMPLETON SHARIAH GLOBAL EQUITY FUND \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK4588":"碎股","LU0642271901.SGD":"Janus Henderson Horizon Global Technology Leaders A2 SGD-H","BK4605":"半导体精选","IE00B5949003.HKD":"JANUS HENDERSON GLOBAL TECHNOLOGY AND INNOVATION \"A\" (HKD) ACC","LU0274383776.USD":"MANULIFE GF US SMALL CAP EQUITY \"AA\" (USD) INC","LU0127658192.USD":"EASTSPRING INVESTMENTS GLOBAL TECHNOLOGY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU2048586759.USD":"ALLIANZ SMART ENERGY \"AT\" (USD) ACC","LU0082616367.USD":"摩根大通美国科技A（dist）","LU2360106780.USD":"BGF 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Mehrotra称：包括美光行业领先的HBM4在内，2026全年HBM供应已全部完成预订。风险犹存，需求预测仍是核心变量在近乎一边倒的看涨共识背后，需求预测仍是核心变量。分析认为若谷歌存储新技术确实引发了结构性转变，那么支撑管理层指引与分析师目标价的需求预测，可能均过于乐观。此外，存储芯片行业本身具有显著的周期性，且资本开支压力沉重。美光计划在2026财年投入约250亿美元资本开支，一旦需求出现阶段性真空，后果将相当痛苦。与此同时，公司内部人士的减持动向也构成一个微小的警示信号。当前华尔街对于美光的共识目标价为527.60美元，其实现仍有赖于后续季度业绩的持续兑现。但就当前而言，股价与企业基本面之间的裂口已足够宽，这场抛售究竟是入场机会还是价值陷阱，答案或许将在下一个季度的供需数据中逐步揭晓。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"MUD":0.6,"MULL":0.6,"MU":1.98}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":529556027074040,"gmtCreate":1770307087171,"gmtModify":1770308804128,"author":{"id":"4198646850494562","authorId":"4198646850494562","name":"Eric2025","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4198646850494562","idStr":"4198646850494562"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"真正从事传统技术行业不懂 AI 的才用 Figma，懂 AI 的不如用 Pencil","listText":"真正从事传统技术行业不懂 AI 的才用 Figma，懂 AI 的不如用 Pencil","text":"真正从事传统技术行业不懂 AI 的才用 Figma，懂 AI 的不如用 Pencil","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/529556027074040","repostId":"529456167765496","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":529456167765496,"gmtCreate":1770282707457,"gmtModify":1770282742153,"author":{"id":"4172412838456302","authorId":"4172412838456302","name":"秋刀鱼YM","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/148347e6a34cb85104c5206c971924f5","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4172412838456302","idStr":"4172412838456302"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FIG\">$Figma(FIG)$</a> 真正从事Ai领域相关的，才知道Figma的潜力有多大，20-25区间持续大规模建仓。","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FIG\">$Figma(FIG)$</a> 真正从事Ai领域相关的，才知道Figma的潜力有多大，20-25区间持续大规模建仓。","text":"$Figma(FIG)$ 真正从事Ai领域相关的，才知道Figma的潜力有多大，20-25区间持续大规模建仓。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/529456167765496","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":940,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"4172412838456302","authorId":"4172412838456302","name":"秋刀鱼YM","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/148347e6a34cb85104c5206c971924f5","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"4172412838456302","idStr":"4172412838456302"},"content":"老师，只能说你不知道协作的价值。","text":"老师，只能说你不知道协作的价值。","html":"老师，只能说你不知道协作的价值。"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":548661755081288,"gmtCreate":1774974203536,"gmtModify":1774975336345,"author":{"id":"4198646850494562","authorId":"4198646850494562","name":"Eric2025","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4198646850494562","idStr":"4198646850494562"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"花期已经下调价格了啊","listText":"花期已经下调价格了啊","text":"花期已经下调价格了啊","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/548661755081288","repostId":"2623373719","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2623373719","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"追踪全球财经热点，精选影响您财富的资讯，投资理财必备神器！","home_visible":1,"media_name":"华尔街见闻","id":"1084101182","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e"},"pubTimestamp":1774918993,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2623373719?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-03-31 09:03","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"“存储巨头”美光再跌10%，亮眼财报后已跌30%，华尔街依旧力挺","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2623373719","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"华尔街43位分析师中38位维持买入评级，当前华尔街对于美光的共识目标价为527.60美元，摩根大通则坚守550美元目标价。分析师认为当前7倍预期市盈率估值严重低估。不过未来需求预测不确定性、行业周期性及美光250亿美元资本开支压力仍是潜在风险。","content":"<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MU\">美光科技</a>股价持续重挫，华尔街认为其正经历一场与强劲基本面严重背离的恐慌性抛售。</p><p>3月30日周一，美光股价单日跳水近10%，自3月18日发布超预期财报以来累计跌幅已达30%。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c93597d4b643442bb3c6dd0568bdf5b7\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"548\"></p><p>（周一美光科技股股价一度跌超10%）</p><p>与此同时，华尔街的看涨阵营几乎纹丝未动，43位分析师中有38位维持买入或强力买入评级，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">摩根大通</a>坚守550美元目标价。</p><p>华尔街见闻提及，上周<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">谷歌</a>宣布推出TurboQuant算法，声称可显著降低AI模型运行时的内存需求。消息一出，存储及半导体设备板块即遭重创，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LRCX\">Lam</a> Research当天单日下挫9.4%，美光过去一周累计下跌15.5%。</p><h2 id=\"id_546550980\">财报数据强劲，分析师集体按兵不动</h2><p>面对股价暴跌，华尔街依旧力挺。</p><p><strong>43位覆盖美光的分析师中，38位维持买入或强力买入评级</strong>，仅3位评级持有、2位评级卖出<strong>。摩根大通维持550美元目标价及买入评级，其多头逻辑建立在TurboQuant实际上并未动摇的基本面之上。</strong></p><p>分析师同时指出，TurboQuant类算法带来的效率提升往往会推动AI应用的整体普及，从而在总量层面扩大内存需求，并不会出现永久性地压缩市场规模。</p><p><strong>财务数据确实为这一立场提供了支撑。</strong>公司第二财季营收同比从80.53亿美元大幅跃升至238.6亿美元，GAAP毛利率从36.8%扩张至56.0%；第三财季指引营收335亿美元，毛利率进一步提升至67%，均指向历史纪录水平。</p><p>对于一家预期营收、每股收益和自由现金流均将创历史新高的公司而言，当前7倍的预期市盈率令人瞩目，0.4的PEG比率则表明，市场预期该公司业绩将出现显著放缓，而公司自身的业绩指引并未支持这一预期。</p><p>CEO Sanjay Mehrotra表示由于供应紧张，主要客户目前只能获得其需求量的\"二分之一至三分之二\"。Sanjay Mehrotra称：</p><blockquote><p>包括美光行业领先的HBM4在内，2026全年HBM供应已全部完成预订。</p></blockquote><h2 id=\"id_2888835666\">风险犹存，需求预测仍是核心变量</h2><p>在近乎一边倒的看涨共识背后，需求预测仍是核心变量。</p><p><strong>分析认为若<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOGL\">谷歌</a>存储新技术确实引发了结构性转变，那么支撑管理层指引与分析师目标价的需求预测，可能均过于乐观。</strong></p><p><strong>此外，存储芯片行业本身具有显著的周期性，且资本开支压力沉重。</strong></p><p>美光计划在2026财年投入约250亿美元资本开支，一旦需求出现阶段性真空，后果将相当痛苦。与此同时，公司内部人士的减持动向也构成一个微小的警示信号。</p><p><strong>当前华尔街对于美光的共识目标价为527.60美元，其实现仍有赖于后续季度业绩的持续兑现。</strong></p><p>但就当前而言，股价与企业基本面之间的裂口已足够宽，这场抛售究竟是入场机会还是价值陷阱，答案或许将在下一个季度的供需数据中逐步揭晓。</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>“存储巨头”美光再跌10%，亮眼财报后已跌30%，华尔街依旧力挺</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n“存储巨头”美光再跌10%，亮眼财报后已跌30%，华尔街依旧力挺\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1084101182\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">华尔街见闻 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2026-03-31 09:03</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MU\">美光科技</a>股价持续重挫，华尔街认为其正经历一场与强劲基本面严重背离的恐慌性抛售。</p><p>3月30日周一，美光股价单日跳水近10%，自3月18日发布超预期财报以来累计跌幅已达30%。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c93597d4b643442bb3c6dd0568bdf5b7\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"548\"></p><p>（周一美光科技股股价一度跌超10%）</p><p>与此同时，华尔街的看涨阵营几乎纹丝未动，43位分析师中有38位维持买入或强力买入评级，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">摩根大通</a>坚守550美元目标价。</p><p>华尔街见闻提及，上周<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">谷歌</a>宣布推出TurboQuant算法，声称可显著降低AI模型运行时的内存需求。消息一出，存储及半导体设备板块即遭重创，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LRCX\">Lam</a> Research当天单日下挫9.4%，美光过去一周累计下跌15.5%。</p><h2 id=\"id_546550980\">财报数据强劲，分析师集体按兵不动</h2><p>面对股价暴跌，华尔街依旧力挺。</p><p><strong>43位覆盖美光的分析师中，38位维持买入或强力买入评级</strong>，仅3位评级持有、2位评级卖出<strong>。摩根大通维持550美元目标价及买入评级，其多头逻辑建立在TurboQuant实际上并未动摇的基本面之上。</strong></p><p>分析师同时指出，TurboQuant类算法带来的效率提升往往会推动AI应用的整体普及，从而在总量层面扩大内存需求，并不会出现永久性地压缩市场规模。</p><p><strong>财务数据确实为这一立场提供了支撑。</strong>公司第二财季营收同比从80.53亿美元大幅跃升至238.6亿美元，GAAP毛利率从36.8%扩张至56.0%；第三财季指引营收335亿美元，毛利率进一步提升至67%，均指向历史纪录水平。</p><p>对于一家预期营收、每股收益和自由现金流均将创历史新高的公司而言，当前7倍的预期市盈率令人瞩目，0.4的PEG比率则表明，市场预期该公司业绩将出现显著放缓，而公司自身的业绩指引并未支持这一预期。</p><p>CEO Sanjay Mehrotra表示由于供应紧张，主要客户目前只能获得其需求量的\"二分之一至三分之二\"。Sanjay Mehrotra称：</p><blockquote><p>包括美光行业领先的HBM4在内，2026全年HBM供应已全部完成预订。</p></blockquote><h2 id=\"id_2888835666\">风险犹存，需求预测仍是核心变量</h2><p>在近乎一边倒的看涨共识背后，需求预测仍是核心变量。</p><p><strong>分析认为若<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOGL\">谷歌</a>存储新技术确实引发了结构性转变，那么支撑管理层指引与分析师目标价的需求预测，可能均过于乐观。</strong></p><p><strong>此外，存储芯片行业本身具有显著的周期性，且资本开支压力沉重。</strong></p><p>美光计划在2026财年投入约250亿美元资本开支，一旦需求出现阶段性真空，后果将相当痛苦。与此同时，公司内部人士的减持动向也构成一个微小的警示信号。</p><p><strong>当前华尔街对于美光的共识目标价为527.60美元，其实现仍有赖于后续季度业绩的持续兑现。</strong></p><p>但就当前而言，股价与企业基本面之间的裂口已足够宽，这场抛售究竟是入场机会还是价值陷阱，答案或许将在下一个季度的供需数据中逐步揭晓。</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"LU0792757196.USD":"TEMPLETON SHARIAH GLOBAL EQUITY FUND \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK4588":"碎股","LU0642271901.SGD":"Janus Henderson Horizon Global Technology Leaders A2 SGD-H","BK4605":"半导体精选","IE00B5949003.HKD":"JANUS HENDERSON GLOBAL TECHNOLOGY AND INNOVATION \"A\" (HKD) ACC","LU0274383776.USD":"MANULIFE GF US SMALL CAP EQUITY \"AA\" (USD) INC","LU0127658192.USD":"EASTSPRING INVESTMENTS GLOBAL TECHNOLOGY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU2048586759.USD":"ALLIANZ SMART ENERGY \"AT\" (USD) ACC","LU0082616367.USD":"摩根大通美国科技A（dist）","LU2360106780.USD":"BGF 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