日2.5市盈率85 市净率90的个人主页 - 老虎社区

日2.5市盈率85 市净率90

日2.5市盈率85 市净率90

入了21035 hkd 到tiger扣了200多cnh，变成2711usd

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日2.5市盈率85 市净率90

10:13

有没有因为升职而利好的股票是哪些呀？

股汇强势大涨台股劲扬552点

日2.5市盈率85 市净率90

10:11

$台积电(TSM)$ 挂断186。

日2.5市盈率85 市净率90

05-03 17:39

这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看

等72小时再交易！市场已总结出“川普2.0时代交易准则”

日2.5市盈率85 市净率90

05-02 22:10

这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看

科技巨头资本支出强劲，台积电被摩根士丹利列为”首选股”

日2.5市盈率85 市净率90

05-02 22:01

$雪佛龙(CVX)$ vv唉感觉业绩不好。

日2.5市盈率85 市净率90

05-02

下一个ipo哪只可以，有没有推荐的

日2.5市盈率85 市净率90

05-02

基金怎么不能自动购买对应币种的股呢？！基金怎么变成证券余额呀？基金怎么变，，证券，期货，期权余额怎么变呀？

日2.5市盈率85 市净率90

05-01

$黄金/美元(XAUUSD.FOREX)$

日2.5市盈率85 市净率90

05-01

$台积电(TSM)$ cc之前166出早了

日2.5市盈率85 市净率90

05-01

@价值投资为王中辣

日2.5市盈率85 市净率90

04-30

哪来的自信？

日2.5市盈率85 市净率90

04-30

为啥停牌了几分钟之后又有价格变动？

日2.5市盈率85 市净率90

04-30

$元保(YB)$ 这为啥停牌价格还在变化的？

日2.5市盈率85 市净率90

04-30

$元保(YB)$ 怎么到23.83，58%的涨幅就停牌了呀？

日2.5市盈率85 市净率90

04-30

$元保(YB)$ 赚了50usd 一股赚10 23.2

日2.5市盈率85 市净率90

04-30

$元保(YB)$ 怎么22快卖不了，什么时候结束？盘前请假几点几分啊？

日2.5市盈率85 市净率90

04-30

几点积分显示买卖价格，现在21快也交易不了

日2.5市盈率85 市净率90

04-29

$小鹏汽车-W(09868)$

日2.5市盈率85 市净率90

04-25

这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看

抱歉，原内容已删除

日2.5市盈率85 市净率90

04-23

这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看

@港股研究社:心动公司股价大涨超6%，业绩超预期成市场焦点

去老虎APP查看更多动态

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Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"LU2357125470.USD":"BNP PARIBAS ENERGY TRANSITION \"CLASSIC RH\" (USDHDG) ACC","LU0572939691.SGD":"Janus Henderson Horizon Asian Dividend Income A2 SGD","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","LU0353189763.USD":"ALLSPRING  US ALL CAP GROWTH FUND \"I\" (USD) ACC","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","03145":"华夏亚洲高息股","LU0882747503.HKD":"UBS (LUX) KEY SELEC ASIA ALLOCATION OPPORTUNITY (USD) \"P\" (HKD) INC","LU1282649067.USD":"ALLIANZ ASIAN MULTI INCOME PLUS \"AMG\" (USD) INC A","LU2471134879.HKD":"INVESCO GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME ADVANTAGE \"A\" (HKD) INC","LU0823414478.USD":"法巴经典能源转换基金","LU0689626769.HKD":"AB SICAV I - SUSTAINABLE US THEMATIC PORTFOLIO \"A\" (HKD) ACC","LU2087625088.SGD":"ALLSPRING  US ALL CAP GROWTH \"A\" (SGDHDG) ACC","LU2471134523.USD":"INVESCO GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME ADVANTAGE \"A\" (USD) ACC","IE00B3M56506.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN EMERGING MARKETS EQUITY \"A\" (USD) 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15:22","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"等72小时再交易！市场已总结出“川普2.0时代交易准则”","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2532386607","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"特朗普频繁“推文炸弹”重创市场，投资者摸索出“三天不动”的避险新策略。","content":"<html><head></head><body><blockquote><p>特朗普频繁“推文炸弹”重创市场，投资者摸索出“三天不动”的避险新策略。</p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">特朗普重返美国政坛后频繁通过社交媒体发布政策信息，引发市场动荡。为规避政策快速反转带来的损失，债市投资者已总结出“72小时交易规则”：特朗普发布消息72小时内若无反转，再采取交易行动。</p><h2 id=\"id_1427284160\">债市投资者“草木皆兵”</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">债券投资者曾多次因立即响应特朗普的推文而蒙受损失。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">例如，特朗普发帖威胁对欧洲葡萄酒加征200%关税后，多家投行迅速进行场外交易，押注相关公司（如包装商Ardagh Group SA、Verallia及标签制造商Fedrigoni SpA）债券价格下跌。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">然而，几天后，当最终关税清单公布并无葡萄酒时，债券价格迅速反弹，令提前行动者措手不及。类似地，对加拿大钢铁征收50%关税的威胁也很快被放弃。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">这些频繁反转的事件，令债券投资者对特朗普推文心存忌惮。</p><h2 id=\"id_757559595\">“72小时规则”：在反复中寻求确定性</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">市场参与者痛定思痛后，部分银行和投资者开始采纳“72小时规则”，即在特朗普发布政策信息后的72小时内避免行动，以防政策迅速反转带来损失。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">媒体援引三位资深债市专家的话称，在特朗普发布任何潜在的重大政策信息后，他们会按兵不动，等待三天（72小时）。如果届时其立场未变或未撤回，市场才倾向于相信该政策可能真正落地，并据此进行交易。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Insight Investment的基金经理布拉甘萨（Catherine Braganza）表示：</p><blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">“我们已不再立即行动，因为总存在政策反转的风险。投资者逐渐对这类信息产生免疫力。”</p></blockquote><h2 id=\"id_904731291\">与“推文风暴”赛跑：时区优势与加速交易</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">除了事后观察，市场也在寻求主动规避风险。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">欧洲的银行家们发现，利用时区差可以争取宝贵时间。他们开始加速债券发行流程，力图在特朗普“醒来”发帖前、在美国市场开盘带来潜在情绪扰动前，完成定价并锁定投资者。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">“所有人都高度警惕24小时的头条风险，尤其在美国时段频率更高，”摩根士丹利EMEA投资级银团联席主管Matteo Benedetto坦言，“在纽约开盘前完成交易绝对更好。”</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">这种紧迫感改变了操作惯例：爱尔兰电信公司Eircom Finance DAC罕见地在一天内完成垃圾债发行、路演和定价；即便是LVMH这样的蓝筹巨头，也选择在欧洲时间下午1点前敲定其19亿欧元债券的最终条款，以规避美市风险。</p><h2 id=\"id_3874303483\">投资重心转向“抗关税”行业</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">持续的政策不确定性，叠加经济学家当时估计未来一年“特朗普引发衰退”的概率达45%，促使信贷投资者重新审视风险，通用汽车、梅赛德斯-奔驰、麦当劳、宝洁等公司或撤回业绩指引或报告销售下滑，进一步强化了市场的避险情绪。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">在此背景下，投资者开始青睐那些受贸易摩擦影响较小、需求稳定的非周期性行业。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Insight Investment的Braganza就表示，其公司关注罐头番茄生产商、手机服务提供商等。“人们不会因为关税而不做饭，也不会扔掉手机，”她解释道。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">还有一些投资者呼吁市场回归基本面分析，关注企业核心价值，但在全球供应链深度交织的现实下，“说易行难”。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">或许，正如M&amp;G Investments的Fabiana Fedeli所说的那样，应对特朗普的推文风险“更像一门艺术而非科学”。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>等72小时再交易！市场已总结出“川普2.0时代交易准则”</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n等72小时再交易！市场已总结出“川普2.0时代交易准则”\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2025-05-03 15:22 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3746417><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>特朗普频繁“推文炸弹”重创市场，投资者摸索出“三天不动”的避险新策略。特朗普重返美国政坛后频繁通过社交媒体发布政策信息，引发市场动荡。为规避政策快速反转带来的损失，债市投资者已总结出“72小时交易规则”：特朗普发布消息72小时内若无反转，再采取交易行动。债市投资者“草木皆兵”债券投资者曾多次因立即响应特朗普的推文而蒙受损失。例如，特朗普发帖威胁对欧洲葡萄酒加征200%关税后，多家投行迅速进行场外...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3746417\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/96819b78df36696eeccbf03ebd7c466d","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3746417","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2532386607","content_text":"特朗普频繁“推文炸弹”重创市场，投资者摸索出“三天不动”的避险新策略。特朗普重返美国政坛后频繁通过社交媒体发布政策信息，引发市场动荡。为规避政策快速反转带来的损失，债市投资者已总结出“72小时交易规则”：特朗普发布消息72小时内若无反转，再采取交易行动。债市投资者“草木皆兵”债券投资者曾多次因立即响应特朗普的推文而蒙受损失。例如，特朗普发帖威胁对欧洲葡萄酒加征200%关税后，多家投行迅速进行场外交易，押注相关公司（如包装商Ardagh Group SA、Verallia及标签制造商Fedrigoni SpA）债券价格下跌。然而，几天后，当最终关税清单公布并无葡萄酒时，债券价格迅速反弹，令提前行动者措手不及。类似地，对加拿大钢铁征收50%关税的威胁也很快被放弃。这些频繁反转的事件，令债券投资者对特朗普推文心存忌惮。“72小时规则”：在反复中寻求确定性市场参与者痛定思痛后，部分银行和投资者开始采纳“72小时规则”，即在特朗普发布政策信息后的72小时内避免行动，以防政策迅速反转带来损失。媒体援引三位资深债市专家的话称，在特朗普发布任何潜在的重大政策信息后，他们会按兵不动，等待三天（72小时）。如果届时其立场未变或未撤回，市场才倾向于相信该政策可能真正落地，并据此进行交易。Insight Investment的基金经理布拉甘萨（Catherine Braganza）表示：“我们已不再立即行动，因为总存在政策反转的风险。投资者逐渐对这类信息产生免疫力。”与“推文风暴”赛跑：时区优势与加速交易除了事后观察，市场也在寻求主动规避风险。欧洲的银行家们发现，利用时区差可以争取宝贵时间。他们开始加速债券发行流程，力图在特朗普“醒来”发帖前、在美国市场开盘带来潜在情绪扰动前，完成定价并锁定投资者。“所有人都高度警惕24小时的头条风险，尤其在美国时段频率更高，”摩根士丹利EMEA投资级银团联席主管Matteo Benedetto坦言，“在纽约开盘前完成交易绝对更好。”这种紧迫感改变了操作惯例：爱尔兰电信公司Eircom Finance DAC罕见地在一天内完成垃圾债发行、路演和定价；即便是LVMH这样的蓝筹巨头，也选择在欧洲时间下午1点前敲定其19亿欧元债券的最终条款，以规避美市风险。投资重心转向“抗关税”行业持续的政策不确定性，叠加经济学家当时估计未来一年“特朗普引发衰退”的概率达45%，促使信贷投资者重新审视风险，通用汽车、梅赛德斯-奔驰、麦当劳、宝洁等公司或撤回业绩指引或报告销售下滑，进一步强化了市场的避险情绪。在此背景下，投资者开始青睐那些受贸易摩擦影响较小、需求稳定的非周期性行业。Insight Investment的Braganza就表示，其公司关注罐头番茄生产商、手机服务提供商等。“人们不会因为关税而不做饭，也不会扔掉手机，”她解释道。还有一些投资者呼吁市场回归基本面分析，关注企业核心价值，但在全球供应链深度交织的现实下，“说易行难”。或许，正如M&G Investments的Fabiana Fedeli所说的那样，应对特朗普的推文风险“更像一门艺术而非科学”。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":14,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":430998271934776,"gmtCreate":1746195008228,"gmtModify":1746195009364,"author":{"id":"4203008314449692","authorId":"4203008314449692","name":"日2.5市盈率85 市净率90","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/665e7fc11b7725ced973939fc74726ab","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4203008314449692","idStr":"4203008314449692"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","listText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","text":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/430998271934776","repostId":"2532875288","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2532875288","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1746129888,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2532875288?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2025-05-02 04:04","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"科技巨头资本支出强劲，台积电被摩根士丹利列为”首选股”","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2532875288","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"摩根士丹利（Morgan Stanley）周四将台积电列为首选股票，Meta和微软两家公司的资本支出显示出对AI产品的需求依旧旺盛，印证了该公司的光明前景。摩根士丹利对台积电股票评级为增持，台积电美股周四一度上涨4.6%，收涨3.6%。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">摩根士丹利</a>（Morgan Stanley）周四将<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSM\">台积电</a>列为首选股票，称大型科技公司在人工智能领域的强劲资本支出，印证了该公司的光明前景。摩根士丹利虽然下调了台积电的目标价，但对台积电股票评级为增持，台积电美股周四一度上涨4.6%，收涨3.6%。</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6251b4d5afca6ca3d8c02679bff6175c\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"240\"/></p><p><strong>大摩分析师Charlie Chan指出，Meta和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">微软</a>两家公司的资本支出显示出对AI产品的需求依旧旺盛。</strong></p><blockquote><p>鉴于Meta和微软发布的强劲AI资本支出指引，我们将台积电重新纳入首选名单。</p><p>“两家公司强劲的AI资本支出应能打消市场对台积电CoWoS（晶圆上芯片再植入基板）订单削减的担忧。”</p></blockquote><p><strong>媒体报道，此前摩根士丹利之所以迟迟未能将台积电列为首选股票，主要受制于三大悬念：AI需求可持续性、台积电与<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/INTC\">英特尔</a>合资的可能性，以及美国半导体关税。</strong></p><p>在AI需求方面，摩根士丹利表示，投资者近期对台积电先进CoWoS封装技术订单削减的担忧似乎被夸大了。</p><p>分析师写道：</p><blockquote><p>“我们最新的供应链调查显示，台积电的CoWoS-L需求保持不变。”</p><p>Meta将其2025年全年资本支出计划上调约70亿美元，微软则暗示把资本支出中的一部分……转向周期更短的服务器设备，以填充那些数据中心。”</p></blockquote><p>关于是否与英特尔合资这一悬念，摩根士丹利报告称，情况看起来也不那么令人担心，预计台积电在未来CPU生产中所扮演的角色有限。</p><blockquote><p>“台积电的2纳米制程将用于生产CPU与GPU两种芯片模块，但会与Intel 18A节点共享产能。台积电管理层已排除了合资的可能性。”</p></blockquote><p>至于半导体关税，摩根士丹利表示，在5月7日的决定出台之前仍存不确定性，但未提及新的风险变化。</p><p>摩根士丹利强调：</p><blockquote><p><strong>“一旦这些悬念解除，我们预期股价将迅速反弹。”</strong></p></blockquote><p>摩根士丹利将台积电的目标价从2,454.00新台币下调至2,330.00新台币。尽管目标价被下调，大摩仍维持对该股的“增持”(Overweight)评级。</p><blockquote><p>“与同业相比，台积电是更具吸引力的增持(OW)标的，按2025年预估市盈率仅15.5倍。”</p></blockquote><p>“增持”(Overweight)评级意味着摩根士丹利分析师预计，未来12至18个月台积电股票的总回报将超过其所覆盖股票的平均水平。将台积电列为“首选”表明，分析师认为其相较同行具有显著的潜在上行空间。</p><p>此外，还有多家<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FISI\">金融机构</a>对台积电股价做出预期。Bernstein维持对台积电的“跑赢大市”(Outperform)评级，强调其在封装技术方面的进展是未来增长的战略资产。Stifel则调整了对台积电的预期，预计资本支出与扩产计划将放缓，因而下调目标价，此举反映出对终端需求和台积电激进扩张可能放缓的担忧。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">摩根大通</a>同样下调了目标价，但维持“增持”评级，理由是预计2025年营收指引将作出调整。公司第二季度营收预计增长5-8%，但关税影响及全球经济放缓导致全年营收预期更趋谨慎。</p></body></html>","source":"wallstreetcn_hot_news","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>科技巨头资本支出强劲，台积电被摩根士丹利列为”首选股”</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n科技巨头资本支出强劲，台积电被摩根士丹利列为”首选股”\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2025-05-02 04:04 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3746370><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>摩根士丹利（Morgan Stanley）周四将台积电列为首选股票，称大型科技公司在人工智能领域的强劲资本支出，印证了该公司的光明前景。摩根士丹利虽然下调了台积电的目标价，但对台积电股票评级为增持，台积电美股周四一度上涨4.6%，收涨3.6%。大摩分析师Charlie Chan指出，Meta和微软两家公司的资本支出显示出对AI产品的需求依旧旺盛。鉴于Meta和微软发布的强劲AI资本支出指引，我们将...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3746370\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a62a13847673d4275638e183efe84562","relate_stocks":{"IE00BQXX3D17.EUR":"GUINNESS GLOBAL INNOVATORS \"C\" (EUR) ACC","LU0158827948.USD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL SUSTAINABILITY \"A\" (USD) INC","IE00BQXX3C00.GBP":"GUINNESS GLOBAL INNOVATORS \"C\" (GBP) ACC","LU0143863198.USD":"CT (LUX) I GLOBAL EMERGING MARKET EQUITIES\"AU\" (USD) ACC","03145":"华夏亚洲高息股","LU0795875086.SGD":"JPMorgan Investment Funds - Global Income A (div) SGD","LU1508157978.USD":"BSF BLACKROCK SYSTEMATIC ASIA PACIFIC EQUITY ABSOLUTE RETURN \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0314104364.USD":"MANULIFE GF AMERICAN GROWTH \"AA\" (USD) INC","IE00BKVL7J92.USD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - US Equity Sustainability Leaders A Acc USD","LU0823414478.USD":"法巴经典能源转换基金","LU0795875169.SGD":"JPMorgan Investment Funds - Global Income A (div) SGD-H","LU0348723411.USD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL HI-TECH GROWTH 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Stanley）周四将台积电列为首选股票，称大型科技公司在人工智能领域的强劲资本支出，印证了该公司的光明前景。摩根士丹利虽然下调了台积电的目标价，但对台积电股票评级为增持，台积电美股周四一度上涨4.6%，收涨3.6%。大摩分析师Charlie Chan指出，Meta和微软两家公司的资本支出显示出对AI产品的需求依旧旺盛。鉴于Meta和微软发布的强劲AI资本支出指引，我们将台积电重新纳入首选名单。“两家公司强劲的AI资本支出应能打消市场对台积电CoWoS（晶圆上芯片再植入基板）订单削减的担忧。”媒体报道，此前摩根士丹利之所以迟迟未能将台积电列为首选股票，主要受制于三大悬念：AI需求可持续性、台积电与英特尔合资的可能性，以及美国半导体关税。在AI需求方面，摩根士丹利表示，投资者近期对台积电先进CoWoS封装技术订单削减的担忧似乎被夸大了。分析师写道：“我们最新的供应链调查显示，台积电的CoWoS-L需求保持不变。”Meta将其2025年全年资本支出计划上调约70亿美元，微软则暗示把资本支出中的一部分……转向周期更短的服务器设备，以填充那些数据中心。”关于是否与英特尔合资这一悬念，摩根士丹利报告称，情况看起来也不那么令人担心，预计台积电在未来CPU生产中所扮演的角色有限。“台积电的2纳米制程将用于生产CPU与GPU两种芯片模块，但会与Intel 18A节点共享产能。台积电管理层已排除了合资的可能性。”至于半导体关税，摩根士丹利表示，在5月7日的决定出台之前仍存不确定性，但未提及新的风险变化。摩根士丹利强调：“一旦这些悬念解除，我们预期股价将迅速反弹。”摩根士丹利将台积电的目标价从2,454.00新台币下调至2,330.00新台币。尽管目标价被下调，大摩仍维持对该股的“增持”(Overweight)评级。“与同业相比，台积电是更具吸引力的增持(OW)标的，按2025年预估市盈率仅15.5倍。”“增持”(Overweight)评级意味着摩根士丹利分析师预计，未来12至18个月台积电股票的总回报将超过其所覆盖股票的平均水平。将台积电列为“首选”表明，分析师认为其相较同行具有显著的潜在上行空间。此外，还有多家金融机构对台积电股价做出预期。Bernstein维持对台积电的“跑赢大市”(Outperform)评级，强调其在封装技术方面的进展是未来增长的战略资产。Stifel则调整了对台积电的预期，预计资本支出与扩产计划将放缓，因而下调目标价，此举反映出对终端需求和台积电激进扩张可能放缓的担忧。摩根大通同样下调了目标价，但维持“增持”评级，理由是预计2025年营收指引将作出调整。公司第二季度营收预计增长5-8%，但关税影响及全球经济放缓导致全年营收预期更趋谨慎。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":430997801603240,"gmtCreate":1746194512453,"gmtModify":1746194513637,"author":{"id":"4203008314449692","authorId":"4203008314449692","name":"日2.5市盈率85 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22:59","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"白宫惊爆！马斯克、贝森特，贴脸互骂","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2530952493","media":"中国基金报","summary":"白宫上演权力斗争马斯克跟贝森特互骂据美国媒体爆料，两名目击者和三名知情人士透露，特斯拉CEO埃隆·马斯克与美国财政部长斯科特·贝森特在白宫爆发激烈争吵。马斯克与贝森特在总统交接期间的关系就不顺。特朗普上任后，马斯克与贝森特在财政部人事安排上频频冲突。上周四，在白宫会议上，贝森特批评马斯克在DOGE预算削减方面夸大其词，承诺多、完成少。马斯克回击称贝森特是“索罗斯的代理人”，并讽刺他“经营过失败的对冲基金”。","content":"<div>\n<p>【导读】马斯克与贝森特在白宫爆发激烈争吵中国基金报记者 泰勒大家好，一起关注一下马斯克跟美国财政部长贝森特发生的一场权力的斗争！白宫上演权力斗争马斯克跟贝森特互骂据美国媒体爆料，两名目击者和三名知情人士透露，特斯拉CEO埃隆·马斯克与美国财政部长斯科特·贝森特在白宫爆发激烈争吵。一名目击者形容上周四的争吵为“就像两个中年亿万富翁在白宫西翼的走廊上玩摔角”。目击者称，这场正面冲突，贝森特与马斯克几乎...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzA5MDEzNjQwMA==&mid=2656263981&idx=1&sn=12b565cc6fb7b606a762460d57e4e431&chksm=8adbab6f17ec25b7fb35f956522790d1adf5968ad84ddd79d7ec5a72242150fcc59e3aa3dac0&scene=0#rd\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" 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margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n白宫惊爆！马斯克、贝森特，贴脸互骂\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2025-04-24 22:59 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzA5MDEzNjQwMA==&mid=2656263981&idx=1&sn=12b565cc6fb7b606a762460d57e4e431&chksm=8adbab6f17ec25b7fb35f956522790d1adf5968ad84ddd79d7ec5a72242150fcc59e3aa3dac0&scene=0#rd><strong>中国基金报</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>【导读】马斯克与贝森特在白宫爆发激烈争吵中国基金报记者 泰勒大家好，一起关注一下马斯克跟美国财政部长贝森特发生的一场权力的斗争！白宫上演权力斗争马斯克跟贝森特互骂据美国媒体爆料，两名目击者和三名知情人士透露，特斯拉CEO埃隆·马斯克与美国财政部长斯科特·贝森特在白宫爆发激烈争吵。一名目击者形容上周四的争吵为“就像两个中年亿万富翁在白宫西翼的走廊上玩摔角”。目击者称，这场正面冲突，贝森特与马斯克几乎...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzA5MDEzNjQwMA==&mid=2656263981&idx=1&sn=12b565cc6fb7b606a762460d57e4e431&chksm=8adbab6f17ec25b7fb35f956522790d1adf5968ad84ddd79d7ec5a72242150fcc59e3aa3dac0&scene=0#rd\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzA5MDEzNjQwMA==&mid=2656263981&idx=1&sn=12b565cc6fb7b606a762460d57e4e431&chksm=8adbab6f17ec25b7fb35f956522790d1adf5968ad84ddd79d7ec5a72242150fcc59e3aa3dac0&scene=0#rd","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2530952493","content_text":"【导读】马斯克与贝森特在白宫爆发激烈争吵中国基金报记者 泰勒大家好，一起关注一下马斯克跟美国财政部长贝森特发生的一场权力的斗争！白宫上演权力斗争马斯克跟贝森特互骂据美国媒体爆料，两名目击者和三名知情人士透露，特斯拉CEO埃隆·马斯克与美国财政部长斯科特·贝森特在白宫爆发激烈争吵。一名目击者形容上周四的争吵为“就像两个中年亿万富翁在白宫西翼的走廊上玩摔角”。目击者称，这场正面冲突，贝森特与马斯克几乎贴脸对峙，两人在“谁将领导国税局”问题上存在分歧。一位目击者说：“他们没有在椭圆形办公室动手，但总统看到了，然后他们继续沿着走廊争吵，到了那里才真正激烈起来。”另一位目击者说：“现场相当震撼。很吵，我是说，非常吵。”马斯克此前也曾与国务卿马可·卢比奥、交通部长肖恩·达菲以及贸易顾问彼得·纳瓦罗发生高调冲突。一位政府官员说：“大家都觉得DOGE（政府效率部）很好，但马斯克的做派实在有点过头。”马斯克与贝森特在总统交接期间的关系就不顺。马斯克曾极力推动霍华德·卢特尼克出任财政部长，但特朗普最终选择了贝森特，并让卢特尼克担任商务部长。特朗普上任后，马斯克与贝森特在财政部人事安排上频频冲突。最新一轮争执始于4月16日，当时特朗普任命了马斯克支持的加里·沙普利为国税局代理局长，而贝森特希望由财政部副部长迈克尔·福克兰德担任。贝森特向特朗普游说要用福克兰德，对马斯克背后的操作感到愤怒。一位知情官员说：“这不是对错之争，而是对权力的争夺。”上周四，在白宫会议上，贝森特批评马斯克在DOGE预算削减方面夸大其词，承诺多、完成少。马斯克回击称贝森特是“索罗斯的代理人”，并讽刺他“经营过失败的对冲基金”。（而特朗普一直称赞贝森特的金融才能）争吵之激烈，一名助手不得不站出来将两人隔开。当时正值意大利总理乔治娅·梅洛尼到访白宫，两人就在她能听到的范围内吵翻。两位听到争吵的消息人士表示，贝森特曾怒吼：“去你的！”而马斯克则回呛：“你再大声点！”有分析称，马斯克是那种“快速行动、打破常规”的标新立异型企业家兼社交媒体红人；而贝森特则是头脑冷静、低调内敛的金融专家，更习惯分析市场而非上头条——也不习惯与马斯克争执，尽管他也曾称赞过马斯克及其DOGE倡议。一位熟悉贝森特的人表示：“很多人会惊讶于贝森特性格这么温和，但他也是有底线的，他发起火来一样可以怒吼。”贝森特占了上风4月18日，美国多家媒体曾援引多名知情人士消息称，特朗普已撤换由马斯克推荐的美国国税局代理局长加里·沙普利。报道称，对沙普利的任命引发了财政部长贝森特与马斯克之间的权力斗争。知情人士透露，贝森特本周曾向特朗普抱怨，称马斯克绕过他，通过白宫渠道，使沙普利成为国税局代理局长。不仅没有征求贝森特的意见，也没有得到他的同意，而国税局本应向作为财政部长的贝森特汇报工作。最终，贝森特成功说服特朗普撤回这一任命决定。而马斯克本周二证实，他计划将自己在政府的工作时间减少到每周一到两天，以专注于陷入困境的特斯拉，此举引发了外界对该机构未来工作的疑问。作为一名“特约政府雇员”，马斯克的任期似乎将在5月底到期。编辑：杜妍校对：乔伊制作：嘉颖审核：许闻挪威突发！亏损3000亿\n\n文章原文","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":60,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":425519670477504,"gmtCreate":1744896512397,"gmtModify":1744898033542,"author":{"id":"4203008314449692","authorId":"4203008314449692","name":"日2.5市盈率85 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13:49","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"股汇强势大涨 台股劲扬552点","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2532216862","media":"美港电讯","summary":"【股汇强势大涨 台股劲扬552点】金十数据5月2日讯，台股2日高开高走，终场上涨552.61点，涨幅2.73%，收在20787.64点，刷新4月2日以来高位。全日成交额3266.6亿元，较上一个交易日","content":"<html><body><p>【股汇强势大涨 台股劲扬552点】金十数据5月2日讯，台股2日高开高走，终场上涨552.61点，涨幅2.73%，收在20787.64点，刷新4月2日以来高位。全日成交额3266.6亿元，较上一个交易日量增15.8%。收盘时，上涨824家，涨停24家，下跌152家，跌停0家。权值股台积电涨42台币，收在950台币，鸿海上涨超过4%，联发科盘中翻黑下杀，惨摔近4%。由于新台币今日迎来历史性飙涨，一度暴涨近9角创逾十年最大单日涨幅，刺激台股营建资产类股大涨。代表中小型股票的柜买指数收报223.89点，刷新4月7日以来高位，涨幅1.78%。</p></body></html>","source":"live_meigang","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>股汇强势大涨 台股劲扬552点</title>\n<style 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Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"LU2357125470.USD":"BNP PARIBAS ENERGY TRANSITION \"CLASSIC RH\" (USDHDG) ACC","LU0572939691.SGD":"Janus Henderson Horizon Asian Dividend Income A2 SGD","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","LU0353189763.USD":"ALLSPRING  US ALL CAP GROWTH FUND \"I\" (USD) ACC","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","03145":"华夏亚洲高息股","LU0882747503.HKD":"UBS (LUX) KEY SELEC ASIA ALLOCATION OPPORTUNITY (USD) \"P\" (HKD) INC","LU1282649067.USD":"ALLIANZ ASIAN MULTI INCOME PLUS \"AMG\" (USD) INC A","LU2471134879.HKD":"INVESCO GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME ADVANTAGE \"A\" (HKD) INC","LU0823414478.USD":"法巴经典能源转换基金","LU0689626769.HKD":"AB SICAV I - SUSTAINABLE US THEMATIC PORTFOLIO \"A\" (HKD) ACC","LU2087625088.SGD":"ALLSPRING  US ALL CAP GROWTH \"A\" (SGDHDG) ACC","LU2471134523.USD":"INVESCO GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME ADVANTAGE \"A\" (USD) ACC","IE00B3M56506.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN EMERGING MARKETS EQUITY \"A\" (USD) 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Invest - Global Disruptive Opportunities A2 Acc SGD-H"},"source_url":"https://www.ushknews.com/","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2532216862","content_text":"【股汇强势大涨 台股劲扬552点】金十数据5月2日讯，台股2日高开高走，终场上涨552.61点，涨幅2.73%，收在20787.64点，刷新4月2日以来高位。全日成交额3266.6亿元，较上一个交易日量增15.8%。收盘时，上涨824家，涨停24家，下跌152家，跌停0家。权值股台积电涨42台币，收在950台币，鸿海上涨超过4%，联发科盘中翻黑下杀，惨摔近4%。由于新台币今日迎来历史性飙涨，一度暴涨近9角创逾十年最大单日涨幅，刺激台股营建资产类股大涨。代表中小型股票的柜买指数收报223.89点，刷新4月7日以来高位，涨幅1.78%。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":431675929682456,"gmtCreate":1746411102164,"gmtModify":1746411103832,"author":{"id":"4203008314449692","authorId":"4203008314449692","name":"日2.5市盈率85 市净率90","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/665e7fc11b7725ced973939fc74726ab","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4203008314449692","idStr":"4203008314449692"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSM\">$台积电(TSM)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v> 挂断186。","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSM\">$台积电(TSM)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v> 挂断186。","text":"$台积电(TSM)$ 挂断186。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/431675929682456","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":286,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":431078247252208,"gmtCreate":1746265181241,"gmtModify":1746265183359,"author":{"id":"4203008314449692","authorId":"4203008314449692","name":"日2.5市盈率85 市净率90","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/665e7fc11b7725ced973939fc74726ab","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4203008314449692","idStr":"4203008314449692"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","listText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","text":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/431078247252208","repostId":"2532386607","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2532386607","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"追踪全球财经热点，精选影响您财富的资讯，投资理财必备神器！","home_visible":1,"media_name":"华尔街见闻","id":"1084101182","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e"},"pubTimestamp":1746256944,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2532386607?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2025-05-03 15:22","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"等72小时再交易！市场已总结出“川普2.0时代交易准则”","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2532386607","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"特朗普频繁“推文炸弹”重创市场，投资者摸索出“三天不动”的避险新策略。","content":"<html><head></head><body><blockquote><p>特朗普频繁“推文炸弹”重创市场，投资者摸索出“三天不动”的避险新策略。</p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">特朗普重返美国政坛后频繁通过社交媒体发布政策信息，引发市场动荡。为规避政策快速反转带来的损失，债市投资者已总结出“72小时交易规则”：特朗普发布消息72小时内若无反转，再采取交易行动。</p><h2 id=\"id_1427284160\">债市投资者“草木皆兵”</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">债券投资者曾多次因立即响应特朗普的推文而蒙受损失。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">例如，特朗普发帖威胁对欧洲葡萄酒加征200%关税后，多家投行迅速进行场外交易，押注相关公司（如包装商Ardagh Group SA、Verallia及标签制造商Fedrigoni SpA）债券价格下跌。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">然而，几天后，当最终关税清单公布并无葡萄酒时，债券价格迅速反弹，令提前行动者措手不及。类似地，对加拿大钢铁征收50%关税的威胁也很快被放弃。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">这些频繁反转的事件，令债券投资者对特朗普推文心存忌惮。</p><h2 id=\"id_757559595\">“72小时规则”：在反复中寻求确定性</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">市场参与者痛定思痛后，部分银行和投资者开始采纳“72小时规则”，即在特朗普发布政策信息后的72小时内避免行动，以防政策迅速反转带来损失。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">媒体援引三位资深债市专家的话称，在特朗普发布任何潜在的重大政策信息后，他们会按兵不动，等待三天（72小时）。如果届时其立场未变或未撤回，市场才倾向于相信该政策可能真正落地，并据此进行交易。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Insight Investment的基金经理布拉甘萨（Catherine Braganza）表示：</p><blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">“我们已不再立即行动，因为总存在政策反转的风险。投资者逐渐对这类信息产生免疫力。”</p></blockquote><h2 id=\"id_904731291\">与“推文风暴”赛跑：时区优势与加速交易</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">除了事后观察，市场也在寻求主动规避风险。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">欧洲的银行家们发现，利用时区差可以争取宝贵时间。他们开始加速债券发行流程，力图在特朗普“醒来”发帖前、在美国市场开盘带来潜在情绪扰动前，完成定价并锁定投资者。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">“所有人都高度警惕24小时的头条风险，尤其在美国时段频率更高，”摩根士丹利EMEA投资级银团联席主管Matteo Benedetto坦言，“在纽约开盘前完成交易绝对更好。”</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">这种紧迫感改变了操作惯例：爱尔兰电信公司Eircom Finance DAC罕见地在一天内完成垃圾债发行、路演和定价；即便是LVMH这样的蓝筹巨头，也选择在欧洲时间下午1点前敲定其19亿欧元债券的最终条款，以规避美市风险。</p><h2 id=\"id_3874303483\">投资重心转向“抗关税”行业</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">持续的政策不确定性，叠加经济学家当时估计未来一年“特朗普引发衰退”的概率达45%，促使信贷投资者重新审视风险，通用汽车、梅赛德斯-奔驰、麦当劳、宝洁等公司或撤回业绩指引或报告销售下滑，进一步强化了市场的避险情绪。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">在此背景下，投资者开始青睐那些受贸易摩擦影响较小、需求稳定的非周期性行业。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Insight Investment的Braganza就表示，其公司关注罐头番茄生产商、手机服务提供商等。“人们不会因为关税而不做饭，也不会扔掉手机，”她解释道。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">还有一些投资者呼吁市场回归基本面分析，关注企业核心价值，但在全球供应链深度交织的现实下，“说易行难”。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">或许，正如M&amp;G Investments的Fabiana Fedeli所说的那样，应对特朗普的推文风险“更像一门艺术而非科学”。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>等72小时再交易！市场已总结出“川普2.0时代交易准则”</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n等72小时再交易！市场已总结出“川普2.0时代交易准则”\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2025-05-03 15:22 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3746417><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>特朗普频繁“推文炸弹”重创市场，投资者摸索出“三天不动”的避险新策略。特朗普重返美国政坛后频繁通过社交媒体发布政策信息，引发市场动荡。为规避政策快速反转带来的损失，债市投资者已总结出“72小时交易规则”：特朗普发布消息72小时内若无反转，再采取交易行动。债市投资者“草木皆兵”债券投资者曾多次因立即响应特朗普的推文而蒙受损失。例如，特朗普发帖威胁对欧洲葡萄酒加征200%关税后，多家投行迅速进行场外...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3746417\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/96819b78df36696eeccbf03ebd7c466d","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3746417","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2532386607","content_text":"特朗普频繁“推文炸弹”重创市场，投资者摸索出“三天不动”的避险新策略。特朗普重返美国政坛后频繁通过社交媒体发布政策信息，引发市场动荡。为规避政策快速反转带来的损失，债市投资者已总结出“72小时交易规则”：特朗普发布消息72小时内若无反转，再采取交易行动。债市投资者“草木皆兵”债券投资者曾多次因立即响应特朗普的推文而蒙受损失。例如，特朗普发帖威胁对欧洲葡萄酒加征200%关税后，多家投行迅速进行场外交易，押注相关公司（如包装商Ardagh Group SA、Verallia及标签制造商Fedrigoni SpA）债券价格下跌。然而，几天后，当最终关税清单公布并无葡萄酒时，债券价格迅速反弹，令提前行动者措手不及。类似地，对加拿大钢铁征收50%关税的威胁也很快被放弃。这些频繁反转的事件，令债券投资者对特朗普推文心存忌惮。“72小时规则”：在反复中寻求确定性市场参与者痛定思痛后，部分银行和投资者开始采纳“72小时规则”，即在特朗普发布政策信息后的72小时内避免行动，以防政策迅速反转带来损失。媒体援引三位资深债市专家的话称，在特朗普发布任何潜在的重大政策信息后，他们会按兵不动，等待三天（72小时）。如果届时其立场未变或未撤回，市场才倾向于相信该政策可能真正落地，并据此进行交易。Insight Investment的基金经理布拉甘萨（Catherine Braganza）表示：“我们已不再立即行动，因为总存在政策反转的风险。投资者逐渐对这类信息产生免疫力。”与“推文风暴”赛跑：时区优势与加速交易除了事后观察，市场也在寻求主动规避风险。欧洲的银行家们发现，利用时区差可以争取宝贵时间。他们开始加速债券发行流程，力图在特朗普“醒来”发帖前、在美国市场开盘带来潜在情绪扰动前，完成定价并锁定投资者。“所有人都高度警惕24小时的头条风险，尤其在美国时段频率更高，”摩根士丹利EMEA投资级银团联席主管Matteo Benedetto坦言，“在纽约开盘前完成交易绝对更好。”这种紧迫感改变了操作惯例：爱尔兰电信公司Eircom Finance DAC罕见地在一天内完成垃圾债发行、路演和定价；即便是LVMH这样的蓝筹巨头，也选择在欧洲时间下午1点前敲定其19亿欧元债券的最终条款，以规避美市风险。投资重心转向“抗关税”行业持续的政策不确定性，叠加经济学家当时估计未来一年“特朗普引发衰退”的概率达45%，促使信贷投资者重新审视风险，通用汽车、梅赛德斯-奔驰、麦当劳、宝洁等公司或撤回业绩指引或报告销售下滑，进一步强化了市场的避险情绪。在此背景下，投资者开始青睐那些受贸易摩擦影响较小、需求稳定的非周期性行业。Insight Investment的Braganza就表示，其公司关注罐头番茄生产商、手机服务提供商等。“人们不会因为关税而不做饭，也不会扔掉手机，”她解释道。还有一些投资者呼吁市场回归基本面分析，关注企业核心价值，但在全球供应链深度交织的现实下，“说易行难”。或许，正如M&G Investments的Fabiana Fedeli所说的那样，应对特朗普的推文风险“更像一门艺术而非科学”。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":14,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":430998271934776,"gmtCreate":1746195008228,"gmtModify":1746195009364,"author":{"id":"4203008314449692","authorId":"4203008314449692","name":"日2.5市盈率85 市净率90","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/665e7fc11b7725ced973939fc74726ab","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4203008314449692","idStr":"4203008314449692"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","listText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","text":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/430998271934776","repostId":"2532875288","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2532875288","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1746129888,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2532875288?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2025-05-02 04:04","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"科技巨头资本支出强劲，台积电被摩根士丹利列为”首选股”","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2532875288","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"摩根士丹利（Morgan Stanley）周四将台积电列为首选股票，Meta和微软两家公司的资本支出显示出对AI产品的需求依旧旺盛，印证了该公司的光明前景。摩根士丹利对台积电股票评级为增持，台积电美股周四一度上涨4.6%，收涨3.6%。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">摩根士丹利</a>（Morgan Stanley）周四将<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSM\">台积电</a>列为首选股票，称大型科技公司在人工智能领域的强劲资本支出，印证了该公司的光明前景。摩根士丹利虽然下调了台积电的目标价，但对台积电股票评级为增持，台积电美股周四一度上涨4.6%，收涨3.6%。</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6251b4d5afca6ca3d8c02679bff6175c\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"240\"/></p><p><strong>大摩分析师Charlie Chan指出，Meta和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">微软</a>两家公司的资本支出显示出对AI产品的需求依旧旺盛。</strong></p><blockquote><p>鉴于Meta和微软发布的强劲AI资本支出指引，我们将台积电重新纳入首选名单。</p><p>“两家公司强劲的AI资本支出应能打消市场对台积电CoWoS（晶圆上芯片再植入基板）订单削减的担忧。”</p></blockquote><p><strong>媒体报道，此前摩根士丹利之所以迟迟未能将台积电列为首选股票，主要受制于三大悬念：AI需求可持续性、台积电与<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/INTC\">英特尔</a>合资的可能性，以及美国半导体关税。</strong></p><p>在AI需求方面，摩根士丹利表示，投资者近期对台积电先进CoWoS封装技术订单削减的担忧似乎被夸大了。</p><p>分析师写道：</p><blockquote><p>“我们最新的供应链调查显示，台积电的CoWoS-L需求保持不变。”</p><p>Meta将其2025年全年资本支出计划上调约70亿美元，微软则暗示把资本支出中的一部分……转向周期更短的服务器设备，以填充那些数据中心。”</p></blockquote><p>关于是否与英特尔合资这一悬念，摩根士丹利报告称，情况看起来也不那么令人担心，预计台积电在未来CPU生产中所扮演的角色有限。</p><blockquote><p>“台积电的2纳米制程将用于生产CPU与GPU两种芯片模块，但会与Intel 18A节点共享产能。台积电管理层已排除了合资的可能性。”</p></blockquote><p>至于半导体关税，摩根士丹利表示，在5月7日的决定出台之前仍存不确定性，但未提及新的风险变化。</p><p>摩根士丹利强调：</p><blockquote><p><strong>“一旦这些悬念解除，我们预期股价将迅速反弹。”</strong></p></blockquote><p>摩根士丹利将台积电的目标价从2,454.00新台币下调至2,330.00新台币。尽管目标价被下调，大摩仍维持对该股的“增持”(Overweight)评级。</p><blockquote><p>“与同业相比，台积电是更具吸引力的增持(OW)标的，按2025年预估市盈率仅15.5倍。”</p></blockquote><p>“增持”(Overweight)评级意味着摩根士丹利分析师预计，未来12至18个月台积电股票的总回报将超过其所覆盖股票的平均水平。将台积电列为“首选”表明，分析师认为其相较同行具有显著的潜在上行空间。</p><p>此外，还有多家<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FISI\">金融机构</a>对台积电股价做出预期。Bernstein维持对台积电的“跑赢大市”(Outperform)评级，强调其在封装技术方面的进展是未来增长的战略资产。Stifel则调整了对台积电的预期，预计资本支出与扩产计划将放缓，因而下调目标价，此举反映出对终端需求和台积电激进扩张可能放缓的担忧。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">摩根大通</a>同样下调了目标价，但维持“增持”评级，理由是预计2025年营收指引将作出调整。公司第二季度营收预计增长5-8%，但关税影响及全球经济放缓导致全年营收预期更趋谨慎。</p></body></html>","source":"wallstreetcn_hot_news","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>科技巨头资本支出强劲，台积电被摩根士丹利列为”首选股”</title>\n<style 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href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3746370\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a62a13847673d4275638e183efe84562","relate_stocks":{"IE00BQXX3D17.EUR":"GUINNESS GLOBAL INNOVATORS \"C\" (EUR) ACC","LU0158827948.USD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL SUSTAINABILITY \"A\" (USD) INC","IE00BQXX3C00.GBP":"GUINNESS GLOBAL INNOVATORS \"C\" (GBP) ACC","LU0143863198.USD":"CT (LUX) I GLOBAL EMERGING MARKET EQUITIES\"AU\" (USD) ACC","03145":"华夏亚洲高息股","LU0795875086.SGD":"JPMorgan Investment Funds - Global Income A (div) SGD","LU1508157978.USD":"BSF BLACKROCK SYSTEMATIC ASIA PACIFIC EQUITY ABSOLUTE RETURN \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0314104364.USD":"MANULIFE GF AMERICAN GROWTH \"AA\" (USD) INC","IE00BKVL7J92.USD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - US Equity Sustainability Leaders A Acc USD","LU0823414478.USD":"法巴经典能源转换基金","LU0795875169.SGD":"JPMorgan Investment Funds - Global Income A (div) SGD-H","LU0348723411.USD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL HI-TECH GROWTH 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Stanley）周四将台积电列为首选股票，称大型科技公司在人工智能领域的强劲资本支出，印证了该公司的光明前景。摩根士丹利虽然下调了台积电的目标价，但对台积电股票评级为增持，台积电美股周四一度上涨4.6%，收涨3.6%。大摩分析师Charlie Chan指出，Meta和微软两家公司的资本支出显示出对AI产品的需求依旧旺盛。鉴于Meta和微软发布的强劲AI资本支出指引，我们将台积电重新纳入首选名单。“两家公司强劲的AI资本支出应能打消市场对台积电CoWoS（晶圆上芯片再植入基板）订单削减的担忧。”媒体报道，此前摩根士丹利之所以迟迟未能将台积电列为首选股票，主要受制于三大悬念：AI需求可持续性、台积电与英特尔合资的可能性，以及美国半导体关税。在AI需求方面，摩根士丹利表示，投资者近期对台积电先进CoWoS封装技术订单削减的担忧似乎被夸大了。分析师写道：“我们最新的供应链调查显示，台积电的CoWoS-L需求保持不变。”Meta将其2025年全年资本支出计划上调约70亿美元，微软则暗示把资本支出中的一部分……转向周期更短的服务器设备，以填充那些数据中心。”关于是否与英特尔合资这一悬念，摩根士丹利报告称，情况看起来也不那么令人担心，预计台积电在未来CPU生产中所扮演的角色有限。“台积电的2纳米制程将用于生产CPU与GPU两种芯片模块，但会与Intel 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