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10-24
价投知易行难[强]
泡泡玛特业绩大涨，股价大跌？三季报后的泡泡玛特怎么了？
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","listText":"价投知易行难[强] ","text":"价投知易行难[强]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/492525297644296","repostId":"2577585421","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2577585421","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1761226349,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2577585421?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2025-10-23 21:32","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"泡泡玛特业绩大涨，股价大跌？三季报后的泡泡玛特怎么了？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2577585421","media":"阿信杂货院","summary":"但在三季度数据发布后，股价不但没有收复前日的大跌，反而在第三日继续大跌9%。但是，泡泡玛特的股价一直都是eps推动而非pe推动，按照三季度业绩来看，2025年年度实现140亿净利润是比较轻松的，届时pe以当下股价计算会来到20倍出头。的确，labubu的破圈让泡泡玛特今年以来呈现了爆发式增长，这样的爆发式增长当然不可持续。泡泡玛特在三、四季度的净利率会继续走高。","content":"<html><body><article><p>9月份发时候，昀少向我推荐了<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09992\">泡泡玛特</a>，但我对泡泡玛特不感冒，因为作为一个直男，我对这类现象本身很不理解，认为这就是一场泡沫，但她从一个女性的直觉和对潮流的理解，坚定看多泡泡玛特。</p><p>我很钦佩她在保持了女性柔软的感性的同时还保持了理性的思考。</p><p>这篇分析就是她的观察和分析，感谢她的稿件。</p><p>以下是正文。</p><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20251023225444120v206pb7fnf22d0a\"/><p>泡泡玛特的三季度数据依旧炸裂，营收同比增长245%-250%，海外更是同比增长365%-370%。但在三季度数据发布后，股价不但没有收复前日的大跌，反而在第三日继续大跌9%。当然，股市短期是投票机，长期是称重器。认知分歧更是获取超额收益的关键。以下是笔者对两个个关键问题的判断：</p><p>一、<strong>当下的泡泡是否高估？</strong></p><p><strong>分歧一：</strong>股价已经涨了几十倍了，当然高估。但是，泡泡玛特的股价一直都是eps推动而非pe推动，按照三季度业绩来看，2025年年度实现140亿<span>净利润</span>是比较轻松的，届时pe以当下股价计算会来到20倍出头。即使明后年业绩增速放缓到30%，相比科技股动辄上百倍的pe水平，一家成长股的pe20倍真的贵吗？别忘了彼得林奇成功投资里面说的，单纯认为股价上涨了多少倍就不再买入是不对的，况且还有PEG这个关键的衡量指标。</p><p><strong>分歧二：</strong>pe20倍或许不贵，但是高成长不可持续。的确，labubu的破圈让泡泡玛特今年以来呈现了爆发式增长，这样的爆发式增长当然不可持续。但是别忘了三点，一是泡泡玛特的IP<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/301365\">矩阵</a>和孵化运营能力（labubu只占收入35%），很多人拿labubu跟暴力熊类比，可大部分人并不知道暴力熊背后的平台，但labubu却让泡泡玛特作为平台彻底出圈，这对于孵化新的IP是大有裨益的。二是IP的延展性，特别是授权收入占比提升后，可以大大促进收入平滑。<strong>三就是出海逻辑，这点我觉得是最关键的，目前泡泡在海外开店密度和渗透度还远未达到饱和。</strong></p><p>二、<strong>labubu</strong>的二手价跌了，说明泡泡玛特没有吸引了？</p><p>这是很多看空泡泡的投资者的主要依据。并且常跟茅台做类比。但只要长期跟踪泡泡的产品用户就会发现，二手价下跌主要是泡泡主动对某些产品加大供给造成的，这很好理解，我从店里能买到原价的产品，为什么要在二级市场加价买？黄牛看到泡泡加大供给，担心存货砸在手里，自然会降价甩卖。这跟茅台这几年需求端和消费场景萎缩是截然不同的。事实上，加大供给反而是泡泡主动刺破了一部分泡沫，推陈出新，前方高能放量了，但新品万圣节Why so serious系列依然一盒难求。事实上，王宁团队对于labubu一直没有过度消费，甚至是克制的，比如饰品popop首次推出金饰，就是baby molly的造型，他们完全可以用Labubu来圈钱，但是并没有，这一点反而让我觉得对管理层是放心的。</p><p>因此我觉得老款二手价跌并不是判断泡泡玛特的关键指标，而是看新品是否依然能俘获消费者的青睐，目前来看，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300256\">星星</a>人美味时刻、why so serious系列仍是吊足了大众胃口，哪怕是所谓“倒闭”的SP不眠剧场，抖音一日销售额也远超其二代产品三个月累积销售额，这还是在单盒售价增涨了39块的基础上，这一点也充分展现了泡泡玛特的运营能力和定价权。泡泡玛特在三、四季度的净<span>利率</span>会继续走高。</p><p>最后补充下我看好泡泡玛特感性认知，90年代日本大萧条期间爆火的蜡笔小新电影《大人<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00776\">帝国</a>的反击》映射出人们对于昭和时代的怀念。泡泡玛特不仅是当下我们能感受到经济上行魅力的场所，也是独处情绪蔓延的陪伴者，更是不换包包就换个挂件的口红效应。价投知易行难，且走且看，看错的时候常有，但不要因为股价的短期下跌就放弃独立思考和判断，保持明真破妄的能力才是最重要的。</p></article></body></html>","source":"tencent","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>泡泡玛特业绩大涨，股价大跌？三季报后的泡泡玛特怎么了？</title>\n<style 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}\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n泡泡玛特业绩大涨，股价大跌？三季报后的泡泡玛特怎么了？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2025-10-23 21:32 北京时间 <a href=http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20251023225505a470e568&s=b><strong>阿信杂货院</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>9月份发时候，昀少向我推荐了泡泡玛特，但我对泡泡玛特不感冒，因为作为一个直男，我对这类现象本身很不理解，认为这就是一场泡沫，但她从一个女性的直觉和对潮流的理解，坚定看多泡泡玛特。我很钦佩她在保持了女性柔软的感性的同时还保持了理性的思考。这篇分析就是她的观察和分析，感谢她的稿件。以下是正文。泡泡玛特的三季度数据依旧炸裂，营收同比增长245%-250%，海外更是同比增长365%-370%。但在三季度...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20251023225505a470e568&s=b\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"LU0327786744.USD":"Janus Henderson Horizon China Opportunities A2 USD","LU0359201885.HKD":"BGF CHINA \"A2\" (HKD) ACC","LU0348766576.USD":"ALLIANZ LITTLE DRAGONS \"A\" (USD) INC","LU0039217434.USD":"HSBC GIF CHINESE EQUITY \"AD\" INC","LU0345776255.USD":"NINETY ONE GSF ASIAN EQUITY \"A\" (USD) INC","LU0211977185.USD":"EASTSPRING INVESTMENTS GREATER CHINA EQUITY \"A\" ACC","LU0345775950.USD":"NINETY ONE GSF ASIAN EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0348767384.USD":"ALLIANZLITTLE DRAGONS \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0307460666.USD":"EASTSPRING INVESTMENTS CHINA EQUITY \"A\" ACC","LU0823426480.USD":"法巴中国股票经典Dis","LU0588546209.SGD":"Eastspring Investments - China Equity Fund AS SGD","LU0593848301.USD":"未来资产亚洲卓越消费股票基金A","LU0164880469.USD":"HSBC GIF HONG KONG EQUITY \"AC\" 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INC"},"source_url":"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20251023225505a470e568&s=b","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/9a95c1376e76363c1401fee7d3717173","article_id":"2577585421","content_text":"9月份发时候，昀少向我推荐了泡泡玛特，但我对泡泡玛特不感冒，因为作为一个直男，我对这类现象本身很不理解，认为这就是一场泡沫，但她从一个女性的直觉和对潮流的理解，坚定看多泡泡玛特。我很钦佩她在保持了女性柔软的感性的同时还保持了理性的思考。这篇分析就是她的观察和分析，感谢她的稿件。以下是正文。泡泡玛特的三季度数据依旧炸裂，营收同比增长245%-250%，海外更是同比增长365%-370%。但在三季度数据发布后，股价不但没有收复前日的大跌，反而在第三日继续大跌9%。当然，股市短期是投票机，长期是称重器。认知分歧更是获取超额收益的关键。以下是笔者对两个个关键问题的判断：一、当下的泡泡是否高估？分歧一：股价已经涨了几十倍了，当然高估。但是，泡泡玛特的股价一直都是eps推动而非pe推动，按照三季度业绩来看，2025年年度实现140亿净利润是比较轻松的，届时pe以当下股价计算会来到20倍出头。即使明后年业绩增速放缓到30%，相比科技股动辄上百倍的pe水平，一家成长股的pe20倍真的贵吗？别忘了彼得林奇成功投资里面说的，单纯认为股价上涨了多少倍就不再买入是不对的，况且还有PEG这个关键的衡量指标。分歧二：pe20倍或许不贵，但是高成长不可持续。的确，labubu的破圈让泡泡玛特今年以来呈现了爆发式增长，这样的爆发式增长当然不可持续。但是别忘了三点，一是泡泡玛特的IP矩阵和孵化运营能力（labubu只占收入35%），很多人拿labubu跟暴力熊类比，可大部分人并不知道暴力熊背后的平台，但labubu却让泡泡玛特作为平台彻底出圈，这对于孵化新的IP是大有裨益的。二是IP的延展性，特别是授权收入占比提升后，可以大大促进收入平滑。三就是出海逻辑，这点我觉得是最关键的，目前泡泡在海外开店密度和渗透度还远未达到饱和。二、labubu的二手价跌了，说明泡泡玛特没有吸引了？这是很多看空泡泡的投资者的主要依据。并且常跟茅台做类比。但只要长期跟踪泡泡的产品用户就会发现，二手价下跌主要是泡泡主动对某些产品加大供给造成的，这很好理解，我从店里能买到原价的产品，为什么要在二级市场加价买？黄牛看到泡泡加大供给，担心存货砸在手里，自然会降价甩卖。这跟茅台这几年需求端和消费场景萎缩是截然不同的。事实上，加大供给反而是泡泡主动刺破了一部分泡沫，推陈出新，前方高能放量了，但新品万圣节Why so serious系列依然一盒难求。事实上，王宁团队对于labubu一直没有过度消费，甚至是克制的，比如饰品popop首次推出金饰，就是baby molly的造型，他们完全可以用Labubu来圈钱，但是并没有，这一点反而让我觉得对管理层是放心的。因此我觉得老款二手价跌并不是判断泡泡玛特的关键指标，而是看新品是否依然能俘获消费者的青睐，目前来看，星星人美味时刻、why so serious系列仍是吊足了大众胃口，哪怕是所谓“倒闭”的SP不眠剧场，抖音一日销售额也远超其二代产品三个月累积销售额，这还是在单盒售价增涨了39块的基础上，这一点也充分展现了泡泡玛特的运营能力和定价权。泡泡玛特在三、四季度的净利率会继续走高。最后补充下我看好泡泡玛特感性认知，90年代日本大萧条期间爆火的蜡笔小新电影《大人帝国的反击》映射出人们对于昭和时代的怀念。泡泡玛特不仅是当下我们能感受到经济上行魅力的场所，也是独处情绪蔓延的陪伴者，更是不换包包就换个挂件的口红效应。价投知易行难，且走且看，看错的时候常有，但不要因为股价的短期下跌就放弃独立思考和判断，保持明真破妄的能力才是最重要的。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"09992":1.5}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":86,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":492525297644296,"gmtCreate":1761266412263,"gmtModify":1761269884738,"author":{"id":"4203053430163250","authorId":"4203053430163250","name":"东方财神伟旭","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d4b82c1dff0f1ca172f2be9be5b2ea33","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4203053430163250","authorIdStr":"4203053430163250"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"价投知易行难[强] ","listText":"价投知易行难[强] ","text":"价投知易行难[强]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/492525297644296","repostId":"2577585421","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2577585421","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1761226349,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2577585421?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2025-10-23 21:32","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"泡泡玛特业绩大涨，股价大跌？三季报后的泡泡玛特怎么了？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2577585421","media":"阿信杂货院","summary":"但在三季度数据发布后，股价不但没有收复前日的大跌，反而在第三日继续大跌9%。但是，泡泡玛特的股价一直都是eps推动而非pe推动，按照三季度业绩来看，2025年年度实现140亿净利润是比较轻松的，届时pe以当下股价计算会来到20倍出头。的确，labubu的破圈让泡泡玛特今年以来呈现了爆发式增长，这样的爆发式增长当然不可持续。泡泡玛特在三、四季度的净利率会继续走高。","content":"<html><body><article><p>9月份发时候，昀少向我推荐了<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09992\">泡泡玛特</a>，但我对泡泡玛特不感冒，因为作为一个直男，我对这类现象本身很不理解，认为这就是一场泡沫，但她从一个女性的直觉和对潮流的理解，坚定看多泡泡玛特。</p><p>我很钦佩她在保持了女性柔软的感性的同时还保持了理性的思考。</p><p>这篇分析就是她的观察和分析，感谢她的稿件。</p><p>以下是正文。</p><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20251023225444120v206pb7fnf22d0a\"/><p>泡泡玛特的三季度数据依旧炸裂，营收同比增长245%-250%，海外更是同比增长365%-370%。但在三季度数据发布后，股价不但没有收复前日的大跌，反而在第三日继续大跌9%。当然，股市短期是投票机，长期是称重器。认知分歧更是获取超额收益的关键。以下是笔者对两个个关键问题的判断：</p><p>一、<strong>当下的泡泡是否高估？</strong></p><p><strong>分歧一：</strong>股价已经涨了几十倍了，当然高估。但是，泡泡玛特的股价一直都是eps推动而非pe推动，按照三季度业绩来看，2025年年度实现140亿<span>净利润</span>是比较轻松的，届时pe以当下股价计算会来到20倍出头。即使明后年业绩增速放缓到30%，相比科技股动辄上百倍的pe水平，一家成长股的pe20倍真的贵吗？别忘了彼得林奇成功投资里面说的，单纯认为股价上涨了多少倍就不再买入是不对的，况且还有PEG这个关键的衡量指标。</p><p><strong>分歧二：</strong>pe20倍或许不贵，但是高成长不可持续。的确，labubu的破圈让泡泡玛特今年以来呈现了爆发式增长，这样的爆发式增长当然不可持续。但是别忘了三点，一是泡泡玛特的IP<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/301365\">矩阵</a>和孵化运营能力（labubu只占收入35%），很多人拿labubu跟暴力熊类比，可大部分人并不知道暴力熊背后的平台，但labubu却让泡泡玛特作为平台彻底出圈，这对于孵化新的IP是大有裨益的。二是IP的延展性，特别是授权收入占比提升后，可以大大促进收入平滑。<strong>三就是出海逻辑，这点我觉得是最关键的，目前泡泡在海外开店密度和渗透度还远未达到饱和。</strong></p><p>二、<strong>labubu</strong>的二手价跌了，说明泡泡玛特没有吸引了？</p><p>这是很多看空泡泡的投资者的主要依据。并且常跟茅台做类比。但只要长期跟踪泡泡的产品用户就会发现，二手价下跌主要是泡泡主动对某些产品加大供给造成的，这很好理解，我从店里能买到原价的产品，为什么要在二级市场加价买？黄牛看到泡泡加大供给，担心存货砸在手里，自然会降价甩卖。这跟茅台这几年需求端和消费场景萎缩是截然不同的。事实上，加大供给反而是泡泡主动刺破了一部分泡沫，推陈出新，前方高能放量了，但新品万圣节Why so serious系列依然一盒难求。事实上，王宁团队对于labubu一直没有过度消费，甚至是克制的，比如饰品popop首次推出金饰，就是baby molly的造型，他们完全可以用Labubu来圈钱，但是并没有，这一点反而让我觉得对管理层是放心的。</p><p>因此我觉得老款二手价跌并不是判断泡泡玛特的关键指标，而是看新品是否依然能俘获消费者的青睐，目前来看，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300256\">星星</a>人美味时刻、why so serious系列仍是吊足了大众胃口，哪怕是所谓“倒闭”的SP不眠剧场，抖音一日销售额也远超其二代产品三个月累积销售额，这还是在单盒售价增涨了39块的基础上，这一点也充分展现了泡泡玛特的运营能力和定价权。泡泡玛特在三、四季度的净<span>利率</span>会继续走高。</p><p>最后补充下我看好泡泡玛特感性认知，90年代日本大萧条期间爆火的蜡笔小新电影《大人<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00776\">帝国</a>的反击》映射出人们对于昭和时代的怀念。泡泡玛特不仅是当下我们能感受到经济上行魅力的场所，也是独处情绪蔓延的陪伴者，更是不换包包就换个挂件的口红效应。价投知易行难，且走且看，看错的时候常有，但不要因为股价的短期下跌就放弃独立思考和判断，保持明真破妄的能力才是最重要的。</p></article></body></html>","source":"tencent","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>泡泡玛特业绩大涨，股价大跌？三季报后的泡泡玛特怎么了？</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n泡泡玛特业绩大涨，股价大跌？三季报后的泡泡玛特怎么了？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2025-10-23 21:32 北京时间 <a href=http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20251023225505a470e568&s=b><strong>阿信杂货院</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>9月份发时候，昀少向我推荐了泡泡玛特，但我对泡泡玛特不感冒，因为作为一个直男，我对这类现象本身很不理解，认为这就是一场泡沫，但她从一个女性的直觉和对潮流的理解，坚定看多泡泡玛特。我很钦佩她在保持了女性柔软的感性的同时还保持了理性的思考。这篇分析就是她的观察和分析，感谢她的稿件。以下是正文。泡泡玛特的三季度数据依旧炸裂，营收同比增长245%-250%，海外更是同比增长365%-370%。但在三季度...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20251023225505a470e568&s=b\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"LU0327786744.USD":"Janus Henderson Horizon China Opportunities A2 USD","LU0359201885.HKD":"BGF CHINA \"A2\" (HKD) ACC","LU0348766576.USD":"ALLIANZ LITTLE DRAGONS \"A\" (USD) INC","LU0039217434.USD":"HSBC GIF CHINESE EQUITY \"AD\" INC","LU0345776255.USD":"NINETY ONE GSF ASIAN EQUITY \"A\" (USD) INC","LU0211977185.USD":"EASTSPRING INVESTMENTS GREATER CHINA EQUITY \"A\" ACC","LU0345775950.USD":"NINETY ONE GSF ASIAN EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0348767384.USD":"ALLIANZLITTLE DRAGONS \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0307460666.USD":"EASTSPRING INVESTMENTS CHINA EQUITY \"A\" ACC","LU0823426480.USD":"法巴中国股票经典Dis","LU0588546209.SGD":"Eastspring Investments - China Equity Fund AS SGD","LU0593848301.USD":"未来资产亚洲卓越消费股票基金A","LU0164880469.USD":"HSBC GIF HONG KONG EQUITY \"AC\" 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INC"},"source_url":"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20251023225505a470e568&s=b","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/9a95c1376e76363c1401fee7d3717173","article_id":"2577585421","content_text":"9月份发时候，昀少向我推荐了泡泡玛特，但我对泡泡玛特不感冒，因为作为一个直男，我对这类现象本身很不理解，认为这就是一场泡沫，但她从一个女性的直觉和对潮流的理解，坚定看多泡泡玛特。我很钦佩她在保持了女性柔软的感性的同时还保持了理性的思考。这篇分析就是她的观察和分析，感谢她的稿件。以下是正文。泡泡玛特的三季度数据依旧炸裂，营收同比增长245%-250%，海外更是同比增长365%-370%。但在三季度数据发布后，股价不但没有收复前日的大跌，反而在第三日继续大跌9%。当然，股市短期是投票机，长期是称重器。认知分歧更是获取超额收益的关键。以下是笔者对两个个关键问题的判断：一、当下的泡泡是否高估？分歧一：股价已经涨了几十倍了，当然高估。但是，泡泡玛特的股价一直都是eps推动而非pe推动，按照三季度业绩来看，2025年年度实现140亿净利润是比较轻松的，届时pe以当下股价计算会来到20倍出头。即使明后年业绩增速放缓到30%，相比科技股动辄上百倍的pe水平，一家成长股的pe20倍真的贵吗？别忘了彼得林奇成功投资里面说的，单纯认为股价上涨了多少倍就不再买入是不对的，况且还有PEG这个关键的衡量指标。分歧二：pe20倍或许不贵，但是高成长不可持续。的确，labubu的破圈让泡泡玛特今年以来呈现了爆发式增长，这样的爆发式增长当然不可持续。但是别忘了三点，一是泡泡玛特的IP矩阵和孵化运营能力（labubu只占收入35%），很多人拿labubu跟暴力熊类比，可大部分人并不知道暴力熊背后的平台，但labubu却让泡泡玛特作为平台彻底出圈，这对于孵化新的IP是大有裨益的。二是IP的延展性，特别是授权收入占比提升后，可以大大促进收入平滑。三就是出海逻辑，这点我觉得是最关键的，目前泡泡在海外开店密度和渗透度还远未达到饱和。二、labubu的二手价跌了，说明泡泡玛特没有吸引了？这是很多看空泡泡的投资者的主要依据。并且常跟茅台做类比。但只要长期跟踪泡泡的产品用户就会发现，二手价下跌主要是泡泡主动对某些产品加大供给造成的，这很好理解，我从店里能买到原价的产品，为什么要在二级市场加价买？黄牛看到泡泡加大供给，担心存货砸在手里，自然会降价甩卖。这跟茅台这几年需求端和消费场景萎缩是截然不同的。事实上，加大供给反而是泡泡主动刺破了一部分泡沫，推陈出新，前方高能放量了，但新品万圣节Why so serious系列依然一盒难求。事实上，王宁团队对于labubu一直没有过度消费，甚至是克制的，比如饰品popop首次推出金饰，就是baby molly的造型，他们完全可以用Labubu来圈钱，但是并没有，这一点反而让我觉得对管理层是放心的。因此我觉得老款二手价跌并不是判断泡泡玛特的关键指标，而是看新品是否依然能俘获消费者的青睐，目前来看，星星人美味时刻、why so serious系列仍是吊足了大众胃口，哪怕是所谓“倒闭”的SP不眠剧场，抖音一日销售额也远超其二代产品三个月累积销售额，这还是在单盒售价增涨了39块的基础上，这一点也充分展现了泡泡玛特的运营能力和定价权。泡泡玛特在三、四季度的净利率会继续走高。最后补充下我看好泡泡玛特感性认知，90年代日本大萧条期间爆火的蜡笔小新电影《大人帝国的反击》映射出人们对于昭和时代的怀念。泡泡玛特不仅是当下我们能感受到经济上行魅力的场所，也是独处情绪蔓延的陪伴者，更是不换包包就换个挂件的口红效应。价投知易行难，且走且看，看错的时候常有，但不要因为股价的短期下跌就放弃独立思考和判断，保持明真破妄的能力才是最重要的。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"09992":1.5}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":86,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}
