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美联储最看重的通胀指标即将公布，7月核心PCE同比涨幅可能扩大
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16:32","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"美联储最看重的通胀指标即将公布，7月核心PCE同比涨幅可能扩大","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1183594865","media":"智通财经网","summary":"关税成本加速传导。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>美国商务部经济分析局(BEA)将于周五发布个人收入与支出报告，市场预计美联储密切关注的通胀指标——核心个人消费支出(Core PCE)物价指数在7月将维持基本稳定，但“基本稳定”并不等同于“完全不变”。经济学家共识预测显示，7月核心PCE物价指数(剔除食品和能源价格波动)环比将上涨0.3%，与6月涨幅持平；但同比涨幅预计将从6月的2.8%升至2.9%，仍高于美联储设定的2%通胀目标。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">美联储政策制定者对核心PCE数据尤为关注，因其被认为是比整体PCE指数(含食品和能源)或消费者价格指数(CPI)更能反映“潜在通胀趋势”的指标。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">通胀水平是联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)制定利率政策的关键考量因素：若通胀水平高于预期，FOMC可能倾向于加息;若物价涨幅逐步放缓，则更有可能考虑降息。此外，劳动力市场状况也是美联储利率决策的重要参考依据。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">对于整体PCE指数，经济学家预计7月环比涨幅将从6月的0.3%降至0.2%，同比涨幅则维持6月的2.6%不变。这一整体与核心PCE的共识预测，大体与克利夫兰联邦储备银行的“通胀即时预测模型”(Inflation Nowcasting)结果一致。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">投资者将重点关注家具、家电等进口依赖度较高品类的价格变化，以评估特朗普关税政策的影响。事实上，6月数据中已初现关税的微弱影响，但尚未显著体现。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">不过，市场普遍认为7月数据中关税的影响仍不会大幅显现。美国康美利加银行(Comerica)首席经济学家比尔·亚当斯(Bill Adams)在接受采访时解释了两点原因：一方面，企业对最终需承担的关税水平存在不确定性，不愿贸然上调价格——毕竟若次日关税水平回落，此前因关税而涨价的决策将失去合理性;另一方面，许多进口企业在今年早些时候已提前囤积库存，当前可通过消化“关税生效前库存”来推迟价格上涨。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">“7月PCE通胀率大概率会比6月略有上升，”亚当斯表示，“自今年春季以来，通胀已呈现逐步上行趋势，这是因为关税成本正沿着‘港口—仓库—终端收银台’的链条逐步传导至终端物价。”</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">他进一步指出，这一传导过程仍将持续数月：“康美利加银行预测，关税向物价的传导将是一个渐进过程，涨幅可能在今年年底至明年年初前后达到峰值。”</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">具体到7月数据，康美利加银行的预测显示：整体PCE指数环比上涨0.2%，与市场共识一致;核心PCE指数环比上涨0.4%，略高于0.3%的市场共识。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">“从整体来看，物价压力正逐步反映关税对经济中商品价格的影响，而这一影响在一定程度上被住房领域通胀压力的缓解所抵消，”亚当斯补充道。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">他认为，关税的影响最有可能体现在制成品价格上，包括家具、家电等耐用品，以及厨具等非耐用品;“此外，PCE报告中的部分食品价格也可能受到关税影响——生产者价格指数(PPI)中蔬菜价格已出现大幅上涨，而PCE相关品类价格通常与PPI存在联动。”</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">值得关注的是，数千年来推动全球贸易发展的香料价格，未来数月可能成为受关税影响最显著的品类之一。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">亚当斯强调，关税向商品价格的传导“更多是‘何时发生’的问题，而非‘是否发生’的问题”，因此在多个季度的通胀展望中，这一因素属于次要考量。“更重要的是剔除能源和住房后的核心服务价格走势——2025年以来该领域通胀已有所放缓，但我们在PPI报告中也观察到部分服务价格出现回升迹象。”</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">疫情后多年居高不下的住房通胀目前正逐步缓解。“过去一年，CPI和PCE指数中的住房通胀(Shelter Inflation)均已放缓，且这种放缓趋势大概率将持续，”亚当斯表示，“但关键问题在于：住房通胀能放缓多少?其放缓幅度又能在多大程度上抵消制成品价格上涨带来的整体通胀压力?”</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">此外，亚当斯预计周五发布的个人收入与支出报告(含7月PCE数据)将显示，7月消费者支出表现稳健。他解释称，由于税收抵免政策即将逐步退出，消费者纷纷提前购买电动汽车;“同时，汽油消费和夏季出行需求也可能推动非耐用品和服务支出增长。”</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">总体而言，亚当斯认为当前美国经济韧性良好：“贸易政策不确定性使得2025年的经济走势比1月预期的更为波动，但经济仍在持续增长。”</p></body></html>","source":"highlight_zhitongcaijin","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" 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PCE)物价指数在7月将维持基本稳定，但“基本稳定”并不等同于“完全不变”。经济学家共识预测显示，7月核心PCE物价指数(剔除食品和能源价格波动)环比将上涨0.3%，与6月涨幅持平；但同比涨幅预计将从6月的2.8%升至2.9%，仍高于美联储设定的2%通胀目标。美联储政策...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1338365.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a65aac279f131203247a9e684f51a21c","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1338365.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/6ca2dcdccfa2217fb20a0351f4efe814","article_id":"1183594865","content_text":"美国商务部经济分析局(BEA)将于周五发布个人收入与支出报告，市场预计美联储密切关注的通胀指标——核心个人消费支出(Core PCE)物价指数在7月将维持基本稳定，但“基本稳定”并不等同于“完全不变”。经济学家共识预测显示，7月核心PCE物价指数(剔除食品和能源价格波动)环比将上涨0.3%，与6月涨幅持平；但同比涨幅预计将从6月的2.8%升至2.9%，仍高于美联储设定的2%通胀目标。美联储政策制定者对核心PCE数据尤为关注，因其被认为是比整体PCE指数(含食品和能源)或消费者价格指数(CPI)更能反映“潜在通胀趋势”的指标。通胀水平是联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)制定利率政策的关键考量因素：若通胀水平高于预期，FOMC可能倾向于加息;若物价涨幅逐步放缓，则更有可能考虑降息。此外，劳动力市场状况也是美联储利率决策的重要参考依据。对于整体PCE指数，经济学家预计7月环比涨幅将从6月的0.3%降至0.2%，同比涨幅则维持6月的2.6%不变。这一整体与核心PCE的共识预测，大体与克利夫兰联邦储备银行的“通胀即时预测模型”(Inflation Nowcasting)结果一致。投资者将重点关注家具、家电等进口依赖度较高品类的价格变化，以评估特朗普关税政策的影响。事实上，6月数据中已初现关税的微弱影响，但尚未显著体现。不过，市场普遍认为7月数据中关税的影响仍不会大幅显现。美国康美利加银行(Comerica)首席经济学家比尔·亚当斯(Bill Adams)在接受采访时解释了两点原因：一方面，企业对最终需承担的关税水平存在不确定性，不愿贸然上调价格——毕竟若次日关税水平回落，此前因关税而涨价的决策将失去合理性;另一方面，许多进口企业在今年早些时候已提前囤积库存，当前可通过消化“关税生效前库存”来推迟价格上涨。“7月PCE通胀率大概率会比6月略有上升，”亚当斯表示，“自今年春季以来，通胀已呈现逐步上行趋势，这是因为关税成本正沿着‘港口—仓库—终端收银台’的链条逐步传导至终端物价。”他进一步指出，这一传导过程仍将持续数月：“康美利加银行预测，关税向物价的传导将是一个渐进过程，涨幅可能在今年年底至明年年初前后达到峰值。”具体到7月数据，康美利加银行的预测显示：整体PCE指数环比上涨0.2%，与市场共识一致;核心PCE指数环比上涨0.4%，略高于0.3%的市场共识。“从整体来看，物价压力正逐步反映关税对经济中商品价格的影响，而这一影响在一定程度上被住房领域通胀压力的缓解所抵消，”亚当斯补充道。他认为，关税的影响最有可能体现在制成品价格上，包括家具、家电等耐用品，以及厨具等非耐用品;“此外，PCE报告中的部分食品价格也可能受到关税影响——生产者价格指数(PPI)中蔬菜价格已出现大幅上涨，而PCE相关品类价格通常与PPI存在联动。”值得关注的是，数千年来推动全球贸易发展的香料价格，未来数月可能成为受关税影响最显著的品类之一。亚当斯强调，关税向商品价格的传导“更多是‘何时发生’的问题，而非‘是否发生’的问题”，因此在多个季度的通胀展望中，这一因素属于次要考量。“更重要的是剔除能源和住房后的核心服务价格走势——2025年以来该领域通胀已有所放缓，但我们在PPI报告中也观察到部分服务价格出现回升迹象。”疫情后多年居高不下的住房通胀目前正逐步缓解。“过去一年，CPI和PCE指数中的住房通胀(Shelter Inflation)均已放缓，且这种放缓趋势大概率将持续，”亚当斯表示，“但关键问题在于：住房通胀能放缓多少?其放缓幅度又能在多大程度上抵消制成品价格上涨带来的整体通胀压力?”此外，亚当斯预计周五发布的个人收入与支出报告(含7月PCE数据)将显示，7月消费者支出表现稳健。他解释称，由于税收抵免政策即将逐步退出，消费者纷纷提前购买电动汽车;“同时，汽油消费和夏季出行需求也可能推动非耐用品和服务支出增长。”总体而言，亚当斯认为当前美国经济韧性良好：“贸易政策不确定性使得2025年的经济走势比1月预期的更为波动，但经济仍在持续增长。”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":1.1,".IXIC":1.1,".SPX":1.1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":152,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":452646509891992,"gmtCreate":1751534576214,"gmtModify":1751535329694,"author":{"id":"4205553548661872","authorId":"4205553548661872","name":"兴乐","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4183a04b6f65f93fe93b25ce5249deb5","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4205553548661872","authorIdStr":"4205553548661872"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"咋没看到Boss暗盘交易呢","listText":"咋没看到Boss暗盘交易呢","text":"咋没看到Boss暗盘交易呢","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/452646509891992","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1486,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"4205553548661872","authorId":"4205553548661872","name":"兴乐","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4183a04b6f65f93fe93b25ce5249deb5","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"4205553548661872","authorIdStr":"4205553548661872"},"content":"那我一直挺奇怪的，这个股，显示还在打新，但早早就已经开市了","text":"那我一直挺奇怪的，这个股，显示还在打新，但早早就已经开市了","html":"那我一直挺奇怪的，这个股，显示还在打新，但早早就已经开市了"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":452645385188048,"gmtCreate":1751534534188,"gmtModify":1751535329664,"author":{"id":"4205553548661872","authorId":"4205553548661872","name":"兴乐","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4183a04b6f65f93fe93b25ce5249deb5","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4205553548661872","authorIdStr":"4205553548661872"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"为啥没看到暗盘交易呢！","listText":"为啥没看到暗盘交易呢！","text":"为啥没看到暗盘交易呢！","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/452645385188048","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":499,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":444428745761128,"gmtCreate":1749524337517,"gmtModify":1749525397536,"author":{"id":"4205553548661872","authorId":"4205553548661872","name":"兴乐","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4183a04b6f65f93fe93b25ce5249deb5","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4205553548661872","authorIdStr":"4205553548661872"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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都高台跳水","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/444428745761128","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2068,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":452646509891992,"gmtCreate":1751534576214,"gmtModify":1751535329694,"author":{"id":"4205553548661872","authorId":"4205553548661872","name":"兴乐","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4183a04b6f65f93fe93b25ce5249deb5","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4205553548661872","authorIdStr":"4205553548661872"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"咋没看到Boss暗盘交易呢","listText":"咋没看到Boss暗盘交易呢","text":"咋没看到Boss暗盘交易呢","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/452646509891992","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1486,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"4205553548661872","authorId":"4205553548661872","name":"兴乐","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4183a04b6f65f93fe93b25ce5249deb5","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"4205553548661872","authorIdStr":"4205553548661872"},"content":"那我一直挺奇怪的，这个股，显示还在打新，但早早就已经开市了","text":"那我一直挺奇怪的，这个股，显示还在打新，但早早就已经开市了","html":"那我一直挺奇怪的，这个股，显示还在打新，但早早就已经开市了"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":473121642606704,"gmtCreate":1756474873931,"gmtModify":1756475873480,"author":{"id":"4205553548661872","authorId":"4205553548661872","name":"兴乐","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4183a04b6f65f93fe93b25ce5249deb5","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4205553548661872","authorIdStr":"4205553548661872"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"说说你对这篇新闻的看法...","listText":"说说你对这篇新闻的看法...","text":"说说你对这篇新闻的看法...","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/473121642606704","repostId":"1183594865","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1183594865","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1756456373,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1183594865?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2025-08-29 16:32","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"美联储最看重的通胀指标即将公布，7月核心PCE同比涨幅可能扩大","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1183594865","media":"智通财经网","summary":"关税成本加速传导。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>美国商务部经济分析局(BEA)将于周五发布个人收入与支出报告，市场预计美联储密切关注的通胀指标——核心个人消费支出(Core PCE)物价指数在7月将维持基本稳定，但“基本稳定”并不等同于“完全不变”。经济学家共识预测显示，7月核心PCE物价指数(剔除食品和能源价格波动)环比将上涨0.3%，与6月涨幅持平；但同比涨幅预计将从6月的2.8%升至2.9%，仍高于美联储设定的2%通胀目标。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">美联储政策制定者对核心PCE数据尤为关注，因其被认为是比整体PCE指数(含食品和能源)或消费者价格指数(CPI)更能反映“潜在通胀趋势”的指标。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">通胀水平是联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)制定利率政策的关键考量因素：若通胀水平高于预期，FOMC可能倾向于加息;若物价涨幅逐步放缓，则更有可能考虑降息。此外，劳动力市场状况也是美联储利率决策的重要参考依据。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">对于整体PCE指数，经济学家预计7月环比涨幅将从6月的0.3%降至0.2%，同比涨幅则维持6月的2.6%不变。这一整体与核心PCE的共识预测，大体与克利夫兰联邦储备银行的“通胀即时预测模型”(Inflation Nowcasting)结果一致。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">投资者将重点关注家具、家电等进口依赖度较高品类的价格变化，以评估特朗普关税政策的影响。事实上，6月数据中已初现关税的微弱影响，但尚未显著体现。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">不过，市场普遍认为7月数据中关税的影响仍不会大幅显现。美国康美利加银行(Comerica)首席经济学家比尔·亚当斯(Bill Adams)在接受采访时解释了两点原因：一方面，企业对最终需承担的关税水平存在不确定性，不愿贸然上调价格——毕竟若次日关税水平回落，此前因关税而涨价的决策将失去合理性;另一方面，许多进口企业在今年早些时候已提前囤积库存，当前可通过消化“关税生效前库存”来推迟价格上涨。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">“7月PCE通胀率大概率会比6月略有上升，”亚当斯表示，“自今年春季以来，通胀已呈现逐步上行趋势，这是因为关税成本正沿着‘港口—仓库—终端收银台’的链条逐步传导至终端物价。”</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">他进一步指出，这一传导过程仍将持续数月：“康美利加银行预测，关税向物价的传导将是一个渐进过程，涨幅可能在今年年底至明年年初前后达到峰值。”</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">具体到7月数据，康美利加银行的预测显示：整体PCE指数环比上涨0.2%，与市场共识一致;核心PCE指数环比上涨0.4%，略高于0.3%的市场共识。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">“从整体来看，物价压力正逐步反映关税对经济中商品价格的影响，而这一影响在一定程度上被住房领域通胀压力的缓解所抵消，”亚当斯补充道。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">他认为，关税的影响最有可能体现在制成品价格上，包括家具、家电等耐用品，以及厨具等非耐用品;“此外，PCE报告中的部分食品价格也可能受到关税影响——生产者价格指数(PPI)中蔬菜价格已出现大幅上涨，而PCE相关品类价格通常与PPI存在联动。”</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">值得关注的是，数千年来推动全球贸易发展的香料价格，未来数月可能成为受关税影响最显著的品类之一。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">亚当斯强调，关税向商品价格的传导“更多是‘何时发生’的问题，而非‘是否发生’的问题”，因此在多个季度的通胀展望中，这一因素属于次要考量。“更重要的是剔除能源和住房后的核心服务价格走势——2025年以来该领域通胀已有所放缓，但我们在PPI报告中也观察到部分服务价格出现回升迹象。”</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">疫情后多年居高不下的住房通胀目前正逐步缓解。“过去一年，CPI和PCE指数中的住房通胀(Shelter Inflation)均已放缓，且这种放缓趋势大概率将持续，”亚当斯表示，“但关键问题在于：住房通胀能放缓多少?其放缓幅度又能在多大程度上抵消制成品价格上涨带来的整体通胀压力?”</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">此外，亚当斯预计周五发布的个人收入与支出报告(含7月PCE数据)将显示，7月消费者支出表现稳健。他解释称，由于税收抵免政策即将逐步退出，消费者纷纷提前购买电动汽车;“同时，汽油消费和夏季出行需求也可能推动非耐用品和服务支出增长。”</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">总体而言，亚当斯认为当前美国经济韧性良好：“贸易政策不确定性使得2025年的经济走势比1月预期的更为波动，但经济仍在持续增长。”</p></body></html>","source":"highlight_zhitongcaijin","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" 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#eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n美联储最看重的通胀指标即将公布，7月核心PCE同比涨幅可能扩大\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2025-08-29 16:32 北京时间 <a href=https://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1338365.html><strong>智通财经网</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>美国商务部经济分析局(BEA)将于周五发布个人收入与支出报告，市场预计美联储密切关注的通胀指标——核心个人消费支出(Core PCE)物价指数在7月将维持基本稳定，但“基本稳定”并不等同于“完全不变”。经济学家共识预测显示，7月核心PCE物价指数(剔除食品和能源价格波动)环比将上涨0.3%，与6月涨幅持平；但同比涨幅预计将从6月的2.8%升至2.9%，仍高于美联储设定的2%通胀目标。美联储政策...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1338365.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a65aac279f131203247a9e684f51a21c","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1338365.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/6ca2dcdccfa2217fb20a0351f4efe814","article_id":"1183594865","content_text":"美国商务部经济分析局(BEA)将于周五发布个人收入与支出报告，市场预计美联储密切关注的通胀指标——核心个人消费支出(Core PCE)物价指数在7月将维持基本稳定，但“基本稳定”并不等同于“完全不变”。经济学家共识预测显示，7月核心PCE物价指数(剔除食品和能源价格波动)环比将上涨0.3%，与6月涨幅持平；但同比涨幅预计将从6月的2.8%升至2.9%，仍高于美联储设定的2%通胀目标。美联储政策制定者对核心PCE数据尤为关注，因其被认为是比整体PCE指数(含食品和能源)或消费者价格指数(CPI)更能反映“潜在通胀趋势”的指标。通胀水平是联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)制定利率政策的关键考量因素：若通胀水平高于预期，FOMC可能倾向于加息;若物价涨幅逐步放缓，则更有可能考虑降息。此外，劳动力市场状况也是美联储利率决策的重要参考依据。对于整体PCE指数，经济学家预计7月环比涨幅将从6月的0.3%降至0.2%，同比涨幅则维持6月的2.6%不变。这一整体与核心PCE的共识预测，大体与克利夫兰联邦储备银行的“通胀即时预测模型”(Inflation Nowcasting)结果一致。投资者将重点关注家具、家电等进口依赖度较高品类的价格变化，以评估特朗普关税政策的影响。事实上，6月数据中已初现关税的微弱影响，但尚未显著体现。不过，市场普遍认为7月数据中关税的影响仍不会大幅显现。美国康美利加银行(Comerica)首席经济学家比尔·亚当斯(Bill Adams)在接受采访时解释了两点原因：一方面，企业对最终需承担的关税水平存在不确定性，不愿贸然上调价格——毕竟若次日关税水平回落，此前因关税而涨价的决策将失去合理性;另一方面，许多进口企业在今年早些时候已提前囤积库存，当前可通过消化“关税生效前库存”来推迟价格上涨。“7月PCE通胀率大概率会比6月略有上升，”亚当斯表示，“自今年春季以来，通胀已呈现逐步上行趋势，这是因为关税成本正沿着‘港口—仓库—终端收银台’的链条逐步传导至终端物价。”他进一步指出，这一传导过程仍将持续数月：“康美利加银行预测，关税向物价的传导将是一个渐进过程，涨幅可能在今年年底至明年年初前后达到峰值。”具体到7月数据，康美利加银行的预测显示：整体PCE指数环比上涨0.2%，与市场共识一致;核心PCE指数环比上涨0.4%，略高于0.3%的市场共识。“从整体来看，物价压力正逐步反映关税对经济中商品价格的影响，而这一影响在一定程度上被住房领域通胀压力的缓解所抵消，”亚当斯补充道。他认为，关税的影响最有可能体现在制成品价格上，包括家具、家电等耐用品，以及厨具等非耐用品;“此外，PCE报告中的部分食品价格也可能受到关税影响——生产者价格指数(PPI)中蔬菜价格已出现大幅上涨，而PCE相关品类价格通常与PPI存在联动。”值得关注的是，数千年来推动全球贸易发展的香料价格，未来数月可能成为受关税影响最显著的品类之一。亚当斯强调，关税向商品价格的传导“更多是‘何时发生’的问题，而非‘是否发生’的问题”，因此在多个季度的通胀展望中，这一因素属于次要考量。“更重要的是剔除能源和住房后的核心服务价格走势——2025年以来该领域通胀已有所放缓，但我们在PPI报告中也观察到部分服务价格出现回升迹象。”疫情后多年居高不下的住房通胀目前正逐步缓解。“过去一年，CPI和PCE指数中的住房通胀(Shelter Inflation)均已放缓，且这种放缓趋势大概率将持续，”亚当斯表示，“但关键问题在于：住房通胀能放缓多少?其放缓幅度又能在多大程度上抵消制成品价格上涨带来的整体通胀压力?”此外，亚当斯预计周五发布的个人收入与支出报告(含7月PCE数据)将显示，7月消费者支出表现稳健。他解释称，由于税收抵免政策即将逐步退出，消费者纷纷提前购买电动汽车;“同时，汽油消费和夏季出行需求也可能推动非耐用品和服务支出增长。”总体而言，亚当斯认为当前美国经济韧性良好：“贸易政策不确定性使得2025年的经济走势比1月预期的更为波动，但经济仍在持续增长。”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":1.1,".IXIC":1.1,".SPX":1.1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":152,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":452645385188048,"gmtCreate":1751534534188,"gmtModify":1751535329664,"author":{"id":"4205553548661872","authorId":"4205553548661872","name":"兴乐","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4183a04b6f65f93fe93b25ce5249deb5","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4205553548661872","authorIdStr":"4205553548661872"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"为啥没看到暗盘交易呢！","listText":"为啥没看到暗盘交易呢！","text":"为啥没看到暗盘交易呢！","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/452645385188048","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":499,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":444428745761128,"gmtCreate":1749524337517,"gmtModify":1749525397536,"author":{"id":"4205553548661872","authorId":"4205553548661872","name":"兴乐","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4183a04b6f65f93fe93b25ce5249deb5","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4205553548661872","authorIdStr":"4205553548661872"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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