Jackie01
2021-04-28
let's go !! bring apple to new heights 🚀🌚 can we hit 138$ ? comment and like for me thanks
Apple Earnings Day: 3 Predictions On Apple Stock Price Moves<blockquote>苹果财报日：苹果股价走势的3个预测</blockquote>
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The Apple Maven reviews the base-, bes","content":"<p>Will Apple stock price rise once the company reports results? The Apple Maven reviews the base-, best- and worst-case scenarios for Apple investors after earnings.</p><p><blockquote>一旦公司公布业绩，苹果股价会上涨吗？这位苹果专家在财报公布后回顾了苹果投资者的基本情况、最佳情况和最坏情况。</blockquote></p><p> Apple’s earnings day is finally here! On April 28, after the closing bell, the Cupertino company will release the results of its fiscal second quarter.</p><p><blockquote>苹果财报日终于来了！4月28日收盘后，这家库比蒂诺公司将发布第二财季业绩。</blockquote></p><p> Below is a summary of the Apple Maven’s last preview articles ahead of earnings. So far, we have covered the following key topics:</p><p><blockquote>以下是苹果专家在财报发布前最后一篇预览文章的摘要。到目前为止，我们已经涵盖了以下关键主题：</blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>April 28 is the big day, so mark your calendars. The Apple Maven will review the Apple earnings report, conference call and Apple stock reaction via live blog, starting at 4 p.m. EST;</li> <li>Wall Street analysts expect to see outstanding numbers: revenues should climb 32% year-over-year, and earnings per share could reach as high as 53%;</li> <li>I believe that one of two product segments will shine brighter than the rest.The iPhone, for example, should benefit from a solid lineup and easy comps. Expect strong-double digit growth.</li> <li>The Mac is the other candidate for most successful segment in the quarter. Apple’s PC sales could rise by 50% or more, also over easy 2020 comps;</li> <li>Probably facing more of an uphill battle will be the iPad. Industry-wide tablet sales should fall double digits this quarter. The good news is that Apple could do better than peer average.</li> <li>If history serves as a guide, investors should be optimistic. Apple stock has gained three times more in the two weeks following earnings day than during other, non-earnings related weeks.</li> </ul> Today, I turn my attention to the very tricky topic of post-earnings share price movements. Will Apple stock react positively to earnings day news? Below are three possibilities.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>4月28日是个大日子，所以在你的日历上做个标记。苹果专家将于下午4点开始通过实时博客回顾苹果的收益报告、电话会议和苹果的股票反应。美国东部时间；</li><li>华尔街分析师预计将看到出色的数据：收入应同比增长32%，每股收益可能高达53%；</li><li>我相信两个产品细分市场中的一个会比其他产品更耀眼。例如，iPhone应该受益于强大的产品阵容和简单的竞争。预计强劲的两位数增长。</li><li>Mac是本季度最成功细分市场的另一个候选者。与easy 2020相比，苹果的PC销量可能会增长50%或更多；</li><li>iPad可能会面临更多艰苦的战斗。本季度全行业平板电脑销量应该会下降两位数。好消息是苹果可能会比同行平均水平做得更好。</li><li>如果以史为鉴，投资者应该保持乐观。苹果股价在财报日后的两周内上涨了其他非财报相关周的三倍。</li></ul>今天，我将注意力转向财报后股价走势这个非常棘手的话题。苹果股票会对财报日消息做出积极反应吗？以下是三种可能性。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/229df7516f081f1206d3b7d6a7d4157c\" tg-width=\"1240\" tg-height=\"703\"><span>Figure 1: iPhone lineup.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图1：iPhone阵容。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Base case: Apple stock $132-$136</p><p><blockquote>基本案例：苹果股票132-136美元</blockquote></p><p> It is most likely that Apple will deliver record-breaking results this time. A confluence of positive factors should support the company’s financial performance: a strong product and service lineup, lingering effects of the stay-at-home economy, and strength of the US consumer.</p><p><blockquote>苹果这次极有可能交出破纪录的成绩。一系列积极因素应该会支持该公司的财务业绩：强大的产品和服务阵容、居家经济的挥之不去的影响以及美国消费者的实力。</blockquote></p><p> The big question, however, is whether the market will reward the stock after earnings. Wall Street analysts have already raised their expectations.According to Stock Rover, earnings per share (EPS) consensus has climbed nearly 10% since last earnings season, to a fiscal second quarter record $0.98.</p><p><blockquote>然而，最大的问题是市场是否会在盈利后奖励该股。华尔街分析师已经提高了他们的预期。据Stock Rover称，自上个财报季以来，每股收益(EPS)共识已攀升近10%，达到第二财季创纪录的0.98美元。</blockquote></p><p> Apple’s valuations have also been rising, as the chart below depicts. While metrics like price-to-earnings (P/E) have come down since late January, they remain near all-time highs.</p><p><blockquote>如下图所示，苹果的估值也一直在上升。尽管市盈率(P/E)等指标自1月下旬以来有所下降，但仍接近历史高点。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2159db2e22f9c952fae20fb5f91e71ac\" tg-width=\"1240\" tg-height=\"464\"><span>Figure 2: AAPL's historical valuation multiples.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图2：AAPL的历史估值倍数。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> As a base-case scenario, I believe that Apple will deliver the goods, but the stock will struggle to climb to fresh peaks. I expect to see share price of $132 to $136 on Thursday morning, at the open, absent major developments.</p><p><blockquote>作为基本情况，我相信苹果将交付货物，但该股将难以攀升至新的峰值。在没有重大进展的情况下，我预计周四上午开盘时股价将达到132美元至136美元。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Best case: Apple stock above $140</b></p><p><blockquote><b>最佳案例：苹果股价高于140美元</b></blockquote></p><p> But instead, could Apple stock march towards peak levels once again? The answer is yes, of course, provided that one or a few of the following end up happening:</p><p><blockquote>但相反，苹果股价能否再次迈向峰值水平？当然，答案是肯定的，前提是最终发生以下一种或几种情况：</blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>Blowout fiscal second quarter results. The numbers would have to suggest not only strong past performance, but optimism for what lies ahead;</li> <li>Reinstatement of guidance. Apple’s management team stopped providing its next-quarter outlook when the pandemic started, in fiscal second quarter 2020;</li> <li>A bump in cash return to shareholders.Acceleration of Apple’s buyback program or a higher-than-average increase in the dividend payment could do the trick.</li> </ul> As a best-case scenario, fiscal second quarter results and the outlook for the rest of the year could be so strong as to cause the current 2021 EPS estimate of $4.44 to be revised higher. This could propel Apple share price. A post-earnings gain of at least 7% would represent fresh all-time highs.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>第二财季业绩井喷。这些数字不仅要表明过去的强劲表现，还要表明对未来的乐观态度；</li><li>恢复指导。当2020财年第二季度疫情开始时，苹果的管理团队停止提供下一季度的展望；</li><li>股东现金回报的增加。加速苹果的回购计划或高于平均水平的股息支付增加可能会达到目的。</li></ul>作为最好的情况，第二财季业绩和今年剩余时间的前景可能会如此强劲，以至于导致目前4.44美元的2021年每股收益预期被上调。这可能会推高苹果股价。财报后涨幅至少7%将创下历史新高。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Worst case: Apple stock below $130</b></p><p><blockquote><b>最坏的情况：苹果股价低于130美元</b></blockquote></p><p> Flip the assumptions above, and we have a worst-case scenario for Apple stock: (1) results that are good, but below or barely at expectations; (2) no guidance for fiscal third quarter; (3) status-quo dividend and buyback announcements.</p><p><blockquote>翻转上面的假设，我们对苹果股票有一个最坏的情况：（1）业绩良好，但低于或勉强达到预期；(2)没有第三财季指引；（3）现状股息和回购公告。</blockquote></p><p> I find it unlikely that Apple share price will drop precipitously, considering the strong momentum of the business and the apparent support at $120 per share in 2021 (see dotted red arrow below). But a decline to less than $130 apiece, levels reached as recently as early April, is not out of question.</p><p><blockquote>考虑到该业务的强劲势头以及2021年每股120美元的明显支撑，我认为苹果股价不太可能大幅下跌（见下面红色虚线箭头）。但跌至每股130美元以下（4月初达到的水平）并非不可能。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cdef79f0e6e2aa074430d9d972639b39\" tg-width=\"1240\" tg-height=\"649\"><span>Figure 3: AAPL's share price in the past 12 months.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图3：AAPL过去12个月的股价。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Watch Apple’s peers</b></p><p><blockquote><b>观察苹果的同行</b></blockquote></p><p> By the time Apple is ready to release earnings, on Wednesday, some of its peers will have done so already: Tesla on Monday and Microsoft on Tuesday are key examples.</p><p><blockquote>当苹果准备在周三发布财报时，一些同行已经这样做了：周一的特斯拉和周二的微软就是关键的例子。</blockquote></p><p> Keep an eye on market reaction to these two reports. Great results coupled with muted stock price movement could be a bad sign for Apple. Big gains, on the other hand, could be bullish for the Cupertino company’s stock.</p><p><blockquote>密切关注市场对这两份报告的反应。出色的业绩加上低迷的股价走势对苹果来说可能是一个坏兆头。另一方面，大幅上涨可能会利好库比蒂诺公司的股票。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Apple Earnings Day: 3 Predictions On Apple Stock Price Moves<blockquote>苹果财报日：苹果股价走势的3个预测</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nApple Earnings Day: 3 Predictions On Apple Stock Price Moves<blockquote>苹果财报日：苹果股价走势的3个预测</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">TheStreet</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-04-27 09:40</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Will Apple stock price rise once the company reports results? The Apple Maven reviews the base-, best- and worst-case scenarios for Apple investors after earnings.</p><p><blockquote>一旦公司公布业绩，苹果股价会上涨吗？这位苹果专家在财报公布后回顾了苹果投资者的基本情况、最佳情况和最坏情况。</blockquote></p><p> Apple’s earnings day is finally here! On April 28, after the closing bell, the Cupertino company will release the results of its fiscal second quarter.</p><p><blockquote>苹果财报日终于来了！4月28日收盘后，这家库比蒂诺公司将发布第二财季业绩。</blockquote></p><p> Below is a summary of the Apple Maven’s last preview articles ahead of earnings. So far, we have covered the following key topics:</p><p><blockquote>以下是苹果专家在财报发布前最后一篇预览文章的摘要。到目前为止，我们已经涵盖了以下关键主题：</blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>April 28 is the big day, so mark your calendars. The Apple Maven will review the Apple earnings report, conference call and Apple stock reaction via live blog, starting at 4 p.m. EST;</li> <li>Wall Street analysts expect to see outstanding numbers: revenues should climb 32% year-over-year, and earnings per share could reach as high as 53%;</li> <li>I believe that one of two product segments will shine brighter than the rest.The iPhone, for example, should benefit from a solid lineup and easy comps. Expect strong-double digit growth.</li> <li>The Mac is the other candidate for most successful segment in the quarter. Apple’s PC sales could rise by 50% or more, also over easy 2020 comps;</li> <li>Probably facing more of an uphill battle will be the iPad. Industry-wide tablet sales should fall double digits this quarter. The good news is that Apple could do better than peer average.</li> <li>If history serves as a guide, investors should be optimistic. Apple stock has gained three times more in the two weeks following earnings day than during other, non-earnings related weeks.</li> </ul> Today, I turn my attention to the very tricky topic of post-earnings share price movements. Will Apple stock react positively to earnings day news? Below are three possibilities.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>4月28日是个大日子，所以在你的日历上做个标记。苹果专家将于下午4点开始通过实时博客回顾苹果的收益报告、电话会议和苹果的股票反应。美国东部时间；</li><li>华尔街分析师预计将看到出色的数据：收入应同比增长32%，每股收益可能高达53%；</li><li>我相信两个产品细分市场中的一个会比其他产品更耀眼。例如，iPhone应该受益于强大的产品阵容和简单的竞争。预计强劲的两位数增长。</li><li>Mac是本季度最成功细分市场的另一个候选者。与easy 2020相比，苹果的PC销量可能会增长50%或更多；</li><li>iPad可能会面临更多艰苦的战斗。本季度全行业平板电脑销量应该会下降两位数。好消息是苹果可能会比同行平均水平做得更好。</li><li>如果以史为鉴，投资者应该保持乐观。苹果股价在财报日后的两周内上涨了其他非财报相关周的三倍。</li></ul>今天，我将注意力转向财报后股价走势这个非常棘手的话题。苹果股票会对财报日消息做出积极反应吗？以下是三种可能性。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/229df7516f081f1206d3b7d6a7d4157c\" tg-width=\"1240\" tg-height=\"703\"><span>Figure 1: iPhone lineup.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图1：iPhone阵容。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Base case: Apple stock $132-$136</p><p><blockquote>基本案例：苹果股票132-136美元</blockquote></p><p> It is most likely that Apple will deliver record-breaking results this time. A confluence of positive factors should support the company’s financial performance: a strong product and service lineup, lingering effects of the stay-at-home economy, and strength of the US consumer.</p><p><blockquote>苹果这次极有可能交出破纪录的成绩。一系列积极因素应该会支持该公司的财务业绩：强大的产品和服务阵容、居家经济的挥之不去的影响以及美国消费者的实力。</blockquote></p><p> The big question, however, is whether the market will reward the stock after earnings. Wall Street analysts have already raised their expectations.According to Stock Rover, earnings per share (EPS) consensus has climbed nearly 10% since last earnings season, to a fiscal second quarter record $0.98.</p><p><blockquote>然而，最大的问题是市场是否会在盈利后奖励该股。华尔街分析师已经提高了他们的预期。据Stock Rover称，自上个财报季以来，每股收益(EPS)共识已攀升近10%，达到第二财季创纪录的0.98美元。</blockquote></p><p> Apple’s valuations have also been rising, as the chart below depicts. While metrics like price-to-earnings (P/E) have come down since late January, they remain near all-time highs.</p><p><blockquote>如下图所示，苹果的估值也一直在上升。尽管市盈率(P/E)等指标自1月下旬以来有所下降，但仍接近历史高点。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2159db2e22f9c952fae20fb5f91e71ac\" tg-width=\"1240\" tg-height=\"464\"><span>Figure 2: AAPL's historical valuation multiples.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图2：AAPL的历史估值倍数。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> As a base-case scenario, I believe that Apple will deliver the goods, but the stock will struggle to climb to fresh peaks. I expect to see share price of $132 to $136 on Thursday morning, at the open, absent major developments.</p><p><blockquote>作为基本情况，我相信苹果将交付货物，但该股将难以攀升至新的峰值。在没有重大进展的情况下，我预计周四上午开盘时股价将达到132美元至136美元。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Best case: Apple stock above $140</b></p><p><blockquote><b>最佳案例：苹果股价高于140美元</b></blockquote></p><p> But instead, could Apple stock march towards peak levels once again? The answer is yes, of course, provided that one or a few of the following end up happening:</p><p><blockquote>但相反，苹果股价能否再次迈向峰值水平？当然，答案是肯定的，前提是最终发生以下一种或几种情况：</blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>Blowout fiscal second quarter results. The numbers would have to suggest not only strong past performance, but optimism for what lies ahead;</li> <li>Reinstatement of guidance. Apple’s management team stopped providing its next-quarter outlook when the pandemic started, in fiscal second quarter 2020;</li> <li>A bump in cash return to shareholders.Acceleration of Apple’s buyback program or a higher-than-average increase in the dividend payment could do the trick.</li> </ul> As a best-case scenario, fiscal second quarter results and the outlook for the rest of the year could be so strong as to cause the current 2021 EPS estimate of $4.44 to be revised higher. This could propel Apple share price. A post-earnings gain of at least 7% would represent fresh all-time highs.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>第二财季业绩井喷。这些数字不仅要表明过去的强劲表现，还要表明对未来的乐观态度；</li><li>恢复指导。当2020财年第二季度疫情开始时，苹果的管理团队停止提供下一季度的展望；</li><li>股东现金回报的增加。加速苹果的回购计划或高于平均水平的股息支付增加可能会达到目的。</li></ul>作为最好的情况，第二财季业绩和今年剩余时间的前景可能会如此强劲，以至于导致目前4.44美元的2021年每股收益预期被上调。这可能会推高苹果股价。财报后涨幅至少7%将创下历史新高。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Worst case: Apple stock below $130</b></p><p><blockquote><b>最坏的情况：苹果股价低于130美元</b></blockquote></p><p> Flip the assumptions above, and we have a worst-case scenario for Apple stock: (1) results that are good, but below or barely at expectations; (2) no guidance for fiscal third quarter; (3) status-quo dividend and buyback announcements.</p><p><blockquote>翻转上面的假设，我们对苹果股票有一个最坏的情况：（1）业绩良好，但低于或勉强达到预期；(2)没有第三财季指引；（3）现状股息和回购公告。</blockquote></p><p> I find it unlikely that Apple share price will drop precipitously, considering the strong momentum of the business and the apparent support at $120 per share in 2021 (see dotted red arrow below). But a decline to less than $130 apiece, levels reached as recently as early April, is not out of question.</p><p><blockquote>考虑到该业务的强劲势头以及2021年每股120美元的明显支撑，我认为苹果股价不太可能大幅下跌（见下面红色虚线箭头）。但跌至每股130美元以下（4月初达到的水平）并非不可能。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cdef79f0e6e2aa074430d9d972639b39\" tg-width=\"1240\" tg-height=\"649\"><span>Figure 3: AAPL's share price in the past 12 months.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图3：AAPL过去12个月的股价。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Watch Apple’s peers</b></p><p><blockquote><b>观察苹果的同行</b></blockquote></p><p> By the time Apple is ready to release earnings, on Wednesday, some of its peers will have done so already: Tesla on Monday and Microsoft on Tuesday are key examples.</p><p><blockquote>当苹果准备在周三发布财报时，一些同行已经这样做了：周一的特斯拉和周二的微软就是关键的例子。</blockquote></p><p> Keep an eye on market reaction to these two reports. Great results coupled with muted stock price movement could be a bad sign for Apple. Big gains, on the other hand, could be bullish for the Cupertino company’s stock.</p><p><blockquote>密切关注市场对这两份报告的反应。出色的业绩加上低迷的股价走势对苹果来说可能是一个坏兆头。另一方面，大幅上涨可能会利好库比蒂诺公司的股票。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.thestreet.com/apple/news/apple-earnings-day-3-predictions-on-apple-stock-price-moves\">TheStreet</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://www.thestreet.com/apple/news/apple-earnings-day-3-predictions-on-apple-stock-price-moves","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1158262395","content_text":"Will Apple stock price rise once the company reports results? The Apple Maven reviews the base-, best- and worst-case scenarios for Apple investors after earnings.\nApple’s earnings day is finally here! On April 28, after the closing bell, the Cupertino company will release the results of its fiscal second quarter.\nBelow is a summary of the Apple Maven’s last preview articles ahead of earnings. So far, we have covered the following key topics:\n\nApril 28 is the big day, so mark your calendars. The Apple Maven will review the Apple earnings report, conference call and Apple stock reaction via live blog, starting at 4 p.m. EST;\nWall Street analysts expect to see outstanding numbers: revenues should climb 32% year-over-year, and earnings per share could reach as high as 53%;\nI believe that one of two product segments will shine brighter than the rest.The iPhone, for example, should benefit from a solid lineup and easy comps. Expect strong-double digit growth.\nThe Mac is the other candidate for most successful segment in the quarter. Apple’s PC sales could rise by 50% or more, also over easy 2020 comps;\nProbably facing more of an uphill battle will be the iPad. Industry-wide tablet sales should fall double digits this quarter. The good news is that Apple could do better than peer average.\nIf history serves as a guide, investors should be optimistic. Apple stock has gained three times more in the two weeks following earnings day than during other, non-earnings related weeks.\n\nToday, I turn my attention to the very tricky topic of post-earnings share price movements. Will Apple stock react positively to earnings day news? Below are three possibilities.\nFigure 1: iPhone lineup.\nBase case: Apple stock $132-$136\nIt is most likely that Apple will deliver record-breaking results this time. A confluence of positive factors should support the company’s financial performance: a strong product and service lineup, lingering effects of the stay-at-home economy, and strength of the US consumer.\nThe big question, however, is whether the market will reward the stock after earnings. Wall Street analysts have already raised their expectations.According to Stock Rover, earnings per share (EPS) consensus has climbed nearly 10% since last earnings season, to a fiscal second quarter record $0.98.\nApple’s valuations have also been rising, as the chart below depicts. While metrics like price-to-earnings (P/E) have come down since late January, they remain near all-time highs.\nFigure 2: AAPL's historical valuation multiples.\nAs a base-case scenario, I believe that Apple will deliver the goods, but the stock will struggle to climb to fresh peaks. I expect to see share price of $132 to $136 on Thursday morning, at the open, absent major developments.\nBest case: Apple stock above $140\nBut instead, could Apple stock march towards peak levels once again? The answer is yes, of course, provided that one or a few of the following end up happening:\n\nBlowout fiscal second quarter results. The numbers would have to suggest not only strong past performance, but optimism for what lies ahead;\nReinstatement of guidance. Apple’s management team stopped providing its next-quarter outlook when the pandemic started, in fiscal second quarter 2020;\nA bump in cash return to shareholders.Acceleration of Apple’s buyback program or a higher-than-average increase in the dividend payment could do the trick.\n\nAs a best-case scenario, fiscal second quarter results and the outlook for the rest of the year could be so strong as to cause the current 2021 EPS estimate of $4.44 to be revised higher. This could propel Apple share price. A post-earnings gain of at least 7% would represent fresh all-time highs.\nWorst case: Apple stock below $130\nFlip the assumptions above, and we have a worst-case scenario for Apple stock: (1) results that are good, but below or barely at expectations; (2) no guidance for fiscal third quarter; (3) status-quo dividend and buyback announcements.\nI find it unlikely that Apple share price will drop precipitously, considering the strong momentum of the business and the apparent support at $120 per share in 2021 (see dotted red arrow below). But a decline to less than $130 apiece, levels reached as recently as early April, is not out of question.\nFigure 3: AAPL's share price in the past 12 months.\nWatch Apple’s peers\nBy the time Apple is ready to release earnings, on Wednesday, some of its peers will have done so already: Tesla on Monday and Microsoft on Tuesday are key examples.\nKeep an eye on market reaction to these two reports. Great results coupled with muted stock price movement could be a bad sign for Apple. Big gains, on the other hand, could be bullish for the Cupertino company’s stock.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2019,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":73,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/100862804"}
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