Dericosan
2021-04-30
Hell no 🤣
Should you buy AMC stock? These analysts say not at any price<blockquote>您应该购买 AMC 股票吗？这些分析师表示不惜一切代价</blockquote>
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These analysts say not at any price<blockquote>您应该购买 AMC 股票吗？这些分析师表示不惜一切代价</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1119597750","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"Here’s what it would take to justify today’s stock price\nThe AMC Empire 25 off Times Square reopened","content":"<p>Here’s what it would take to justify today’s stock price</p><p><blockquote>以下是今天股价的合理性</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4899e9a1b9dda32fc7d54171a7f44b7c\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"842\"><span>The AMC Empire 25 off Times Square reopened on March 5. AFP VIA GETTY IMAGES</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>时代广场附近的AMC帝国25号于3月5日重新开业。法新社盖蒂图片社</span></p></blockquote></p><p> AMC Entertainment Holdings is not worth owning at any price, barring a drastic change to its business model. Given poor fundamentals and a mountain of debt (221% of market cap), we don’t see how equity investors will have a claim to any future profits, especially given the headwinds facing the movie theater industry.</p><p><blockquote>除非其商业模式发生巨大变化，否则AMC院线控股公司无论如何都不值得拥有。鉴于糟糕的基本面和堆积如山的债务（占市值的 221%），我们看不出股权投资者将如何获得未来的利润，尤其是考虑到电影业面临的逆风。</blockquote></p><p> Making matters worse, the company continues to issue new shares, like the recent 43-million share sale, so equity investors claims on any future profits are further diluted.</p><p><blockquote>更糟糕的是，该公司继续发行新股，就像最近出售的 4300 万股股票一样，因此股权投资者对任何未来利润的索赔被进一步稀释。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f461799f6f0531c3625ec019b1c957be\" tg-width=\"1048\" tg-height=\"554\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <b>Fundamentals were bad before the COVID-19 pandemic</b></p><p><blockquote><b>COVID-19 大流行之前基本面不佳</b></blockquote></p><p> Movie theater operator AMC Entertainment had its moment as a meme stock at the same time it was staving off bankruptcy, which illustrates how little the stock’s rise was related to the firm’s fundamentals.</p><p><blockquote>电影院运营商AMC院线在避免破产的同时，也曾是一只备受关注的股票，这说明该股的上涨与公司的基本面关系不大。</blockquote></p><p> Apart from bankruptcy concerns, AMC’s business operations had been trending in the wrong direction even prior to the COVID-19 pandemic. We calculate that AMC’s core earnings fell from $114 million in 2013 to around $30 million in 2019. The firm burned through $5.2 billion in free cash flow (FCF) from 2014-2019. FCF was -$3.9 billion in 2020.</p><p><blockquote>除了破产问题，AMC 的业务运营甚至在 COVID-19 大流行之前就已经朝着错误的方向发展。我们计算得出，AMC 的核心收益从 2013 年的 1.14 亿美元下降到 2019 年的 3000 万美元左右。2014 年至 2019 年，该公司消耗了 52 亿美元的自由现金流 (FCF)。2020 年自由现金流为 -39 亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Given the poor fundamentals, AMC had earned our “unattractive” rating even before the meme-stock frenzy took off.</p><p><blockquote>鉴于基本面不佳，AMC 甚至在备忘录股热潮兴起之前就已经获得了我们的 “无吸引力 ”评级。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bbe951b082e43cab215cc75824727b1f\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"599\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <b>Pandemic headwinds persist</b></p><p><blockquote><b>大流行阻力持续存在</b></blockquote></p><p> The shift away from movie theaters to streaming could be permanent. When COVID-19 shut down movie theaters across the globe, production studios initially postponed movie releases. As lockdowns persisted, movie studios started releasing their movies on streaming platforms such as Disney+ and HBO Max, often on the same day as in theaters. Gone was the exclusive window of about three months for theaters to cash in on new releases before they hit streaming platforms.</p><p><blockquote>从电影院到流媒体的转变可能是永久性的。当新冠肺炎关闭全球电影院时，制作公司最初推迟了电影上映。随着封锁的持续，电影制片厂开始在 Disney+ 和 HBO Max 等流媒体平台上发布电影，通常与影院同一天上映。影院在新电影登陆流媒体平台之前大约三个月的独家窗口已经一去不复返了。</blockquote></p><p> Now that consumers got a taste of new movie releases at home, there may be no return to the old model. In a survey conducted in May 2020, 70% of respondents indicated they would rather watch new movies at home, even if theaters were opened.</p><p><blockquote>现在消费者已经在家里尝到了新电影上映的滋味，可能不会回到旧模式。在2020年5月进行的一项调查中，70%的受访者表示，即使影院开业，他们也宁愿在家观看新电影。</blockquote></p><p> Accordingly, Disney began sending movies originally intended for theatrical release directly to its streaming service in mid 2020. Similarly, AT&T’s Warner Bros. announced in December 2020 that it would launch every 2021 movie on HBO Max at the same time as theaters. As David Sims, a writer for The Atlantic put it, “audiences will have little incentive to pay more to see these films in theaters.”</p><p><blockquote>因此，迪士尼在2020年年中开始将原本打算在影院上映的电影直接发送到其流媒体服务。同样，AT&T 旗下的华纳兄弟公司也在 2020 年 12 月宣布，将在影院的同时在 HBO Max 上推出 2021 年的所有电影。正如《大西洋月刊》撰稿人大卫-西姆斯（David Sims）所说，“观众几乎没有动力花更多的钱在影院观看这些电影”。</blockquote></p><p> However, poor fundamentals and structural headwinds didn’t stop AMC Entertainment’s stock from soaring during the meme-stock frenzy. To give readers a sense of just how crazy-overvalued the stock was at its peak, we do the math and show how the business would have to perform to justify a price of $20 a share, which it reached in late January.</p><p><blockquote>然而，糟糕的基本面和结构性阻力并没有阻止AMC院线的股价在备忘录股狂潮中飙升。为了让读者了解该股在巅峰时期的估值有多么疯狂，我们进行了计算，并展示了该公司必须如何表现才能证明其在 1 月底达到的每股 20 美元的价格是合理的。</blockquote></p><p> <b>‘Crazy’ at $20 explained: It implies market share rises from 13% to 54%</b></p><p><blockquote><b>20 美元的 “疯狂 ”解释： 这意味着市场份额将从 13% 上升到 54%</b></blockquote></p><p> Our reverse discounted cash flow (DCF) model shows that to justify a $20 share price, AMC Entertainment must:</p><p><blockquote>我们的反向贴现现金流 (DCF) 模型表明，为了证明 20 美元的股价是合理的，AMC院线必须：</blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>immediately improve its profit margin to 14%, which equals the highest in company history (2013), compared with 8% in 2019, and</li> <li>grow revenue by 36% compounded annually for the next decade, which is based on growing at consensus estimates in 2021 (113%) and 2022 (81%), and 24% each year thereafter (well above 9% consensus revenue estimate for 2023)</li> </ul> In this scenario, AMC Entertainment earns nearly $27 billion in revenue in 2030, which is nearly five times more than its previous record revenue of $5.5 billion in 2019 and around 220% of 2020 global box-office revenue.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>立即将其利润率提升至14%，相当于公司历史上（2013年）的最高水平，而2019年为8%，以及</li><li>未来十年收入复合年增长率为 36%，这是基于 2021 年 (113%) 和 2022 年 (81%) 的共识预期增长，此后每年增长 24%（远高于 2023 年 9% 的共识收入预期）</li></ul>在这种情况下，AMC院线在2030年将获得近270亿美元的收入，这是其2019年创纪录的55亿美元收入的近五倍，约占2020年全球票房收入的220%。</blockquote></p><p> If we assume global box-office revenue grows at projected rates from 2020 to 2025 and grows 3.7% a year (equal to CAGR from 2009 to 2019) from 2025 through 2030, the scenario above implies AMC Entertainment’s revenue would reach 54% of the global box-office revenue in 2030, up a good bit from about 13% in 2019.</p><p><blockquote>如果我们假设全球票房收入从 2020 年到 2025 年以预计速度增长，从 2025 年到 2030 年每年增长 3.7%（相当于 2009 年至 2019 年的复合年增长率），那么上述情况意味着AMC院线的收入将在 2030 年达到全球票房收入的 54%，比 2019 年的约 13% 有所提高。</blockquote></p><p> This chart compares AMC Entertainment’s historical revenue and share of the global box office to its implied revenue and share of the 2030 projected global box office for this scenario.</p><p><blockquote>本图表将AMC院线的历史收入和全球票房份额与其在 2030 年预计全球票房中的隐含收入和份额进行了比较。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/691ff3bb07b6f196641d0f67f323a00e\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"624\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <b>Still crazy at $10</b></p><p><blockquote><b>10 美元仍然疯狂</b></blockquote></p><p> For perspective on the current price, we run the same analysis to show what the company must do to justify a share price of $10 – which is lower than where it now trades:</p><p><blockquote>为了了解当前价格，我们进行了相同的分析，以显示该公司必须采取哪些措施来证明 10 美元的股价（低于其目前的交易价格）的合理性：</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <ul> <li>immediately improve its profit margin to 14% (its all-time high in 2013) and</li> <li>grow revenue by 32% compounded annually for the next decade (which is well above projected box office revenue CAGR of 21% through 2025) revenue.</li> </ul> In this scenario, AMC Entertainment’s revenue would be 39% of the estimated global box office revenue in 2030 (based on same assumptions as above). This next chart compares AMC Entertainment’s historical revenue and share of the global box office to its implied revenue and share of the 2030 projected global box office for this scenario.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>立即将利润率提升至14%（二零一三年创历史新高）及</li><li>未来十年收入每年复合增长32%（远高于到2025年21%的预计票房收入CAGR）。</li></ul>在这种情况下，AMC院线的收入将占 2030 年全球预计票房收入的 39%（基于与上述相同的假设）。下一张图表将AMC院线的历史收入和全球票房份额与其在 2030 年预计全球票房中的隐含收入和份额进行了比较。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dc20a5dcf1dfdd3b9e767ddd3a49b0d1\" tg-width=\"1259\" tg-height=\"626\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <b>The s</b><b>tock is not worth $1</b></p><p><blockquote><b>s</b><b>tock 不值 1 美元</b></blockquote></p><p> Given that the performance required to justify a $10 share price is ridiculous, we dig deeper to see if this stock is worth buying at any price.</p><p><blockquote>鉴于证明 10 美元股价合理性所需的业绩是荒谬的，我们深入挖掘，看看这只股票是否值得以任何价格购买。</blockquote></p><p> The answer is no.</p><p><blockquote>答案是不。</blockquote></p><p> Given $9.8 billion in total debt, $44 million in underfunded pensions, $40 million in net deferred tax liabilities and $27 million in minority interests, it is unlikely that the company will ever make enough money to satisfy stakeholders who have higher claims on the firm’s cash flows.</p><p><blockquote>鉴于 98 亿美元的债务总额、4400 万美元资金不足的养老金、4000 万美元的净递延所得税负债和 2700 万美元的少数股东权益，该公司不太可能赚到足够的钱来满足对公司现金流有更高要求的利益相关者。</blockquote></p><p> In other words, we do not think equity investors will ever see $1 of economic earnings.</p><p><blockquote>换句话说，我们认为股票投资者永远不会看到 1 美元的经济收益。</blockquote></p><p> AMC is selling stock to exploit gambling investors</p><p><blockquote>AMC 正在出售股票以剥削赌博投资者</blockquote></p><p> Taking advantage of its ultra-high valuation, AMC sold around 312 million new shares in the fourth quarter of 2020 and the first quarter of 2021, or more than double the number of shares outstanding at the end of the third quarter of 2020, and significantly diluted investors’ equity stakes.</p><p><blockquote>利用其超高估值，AMC 在 2020 年第四季度和 2021 年第一季度出售了约 3.12 亿股新股，是 2020 年第三季度末流通股数量的两倍多，并大幅稀释了投资者的股权。</blockquote></p><p> On Tuesday, it said it would sell another 43 million shares but called off its controversial plan to seek approval to issue 500 million shares.</p><p><blockquote>周二，该公司表示将再出售 4300 万股股票，但取消了有争议的寻求批准发行 5 亿股股票的计划。</blockquote></p><p> Given the stock’s drop of more than 5% on Wednesday in a flat market, equity investors appear to be catching on that the company is cashing in on their gullibility by selling them shares at elevated prices.</p><p><blockquote>鉴于该股周三在市场持平的情况下跌幅超过 5%，股票投资者似乎意识到该公司正在通过高价出售股票来套现他们的轻信行为。</blockquote></p><p> Sure, raising cash staves off bankruptcy, but that delay only helps equity investors if the company can generate profits large enough to pay off debtholders and other stakeholders with senior claims. Even so, the likelihood of the company ever generating the future cash flows required to justify the current valuation is very, very low.</p><p><blockquote>当然，筹集现金可以避免破产，但如果公司能够产生足够大的利润来偿还债务人和其他有优先债权的利益相关者，这种延迟只会对股权投资者有所帮助。即便如此，该公司产生证明当前估值所需的未来现金流的可能性也非常非常低。</blockquote></p><p> Buyer beware.</p><p><blockquote>买家小心。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Should you buy AMC stock? 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These analysts say not at any price<blockquote>您应该购买 AMC 股票吗？这些分析师表示不惜一切代价</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">MarketWatch</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-04-30 11:30</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Here’s what it would take to justify today’s stock price</p><p><blockquote>以下是今天股价的合理性</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4899e9a1b9dda32fc7d54171a7f44b7c\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"842\"><span>The AMC Empire 25 off Times Square reopened on March 5. AFP VIA GETTY IMAGES</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>时代广场附近的AMC帝国25号于3月5日重新开业。法新社盖蒂图片社</span></p></blockquote></p><p> AMC Entertainment Holdings is not worth owning at any price, barring a drastic change to its business model. Given poor fundamentals and a mountain of debt (221% of market cap), we don’t see how equity investors will have a claim to any future profits, especially given the headwinds facing the movie theater industry.</p><p><blockquote>除非其商业模式发生巨大变化，否则AMC院线控股公司无论如何都不值得拥有。鉴于糟糕的基本面和堆积如山的债务（占市值的 221%），我们看不出股权投资者将如何获得未来的利润，尤其是考虑到电影业面临的逆风。</blockquote></p><p> Making matters worse, the company continues to issue new shares, like the recent 43-million share sale, so equity investors claims on any future profits are further diluted.</p><p><blockquote>更糟糕的是，该公司继续发行新股，就像最近出售的 4300 万股股票一样，因此股权投资者对任何未来利润的索赔被进一步稀释。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f461799f6f0531c3625ec019b1c957be\" tg-width=\"1048\" tg-height=\"554\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <b>Fundamentals were bad before the COVID-19 pandemic</b></p><p><blockquote><b>COVID-19 大流行之前基本面不佳</b></blockquote></p><p> Movie theater operator AMC Entertainment had its moment as a meme stock at the same time it was staving off bankruptcy, which illustrates how little the stock’s rise was related to the firm’s fundamentals.</p><p><blockquote>电影院运营商AMC院线在避免破产的同时，也曾是一只备受关注的股票，这说明该股的上涨与公司的基本面关系不大。</blockquote></p><p> Apart from bankruptcy concerns, AMC’s business operations had been trending in the wrong direction even prior to the COVID-19 pandemic. We calculate that AMC’s core earnings fell from $114 million in 2013 to around $30 million in 2019. The firm burned through $5.2 billion in free cash flow (FCF) from 2014-2019. FCF was -$3.9 billion in 2020.</p><p><blockquote>除了破产问题，AMC 的业务运营甚至在 COVID-19 大流行之前就已经朝着错误的方向发展。我们计算得出，AMC 的核心收益从 2013 年的 1.14 亿美元下降到 2019 年的 3000 万美元左右。2014 年至 2019 年，该公司消耗了 52 亿美元的自由现金流 (FCF)。2020 年自由现金流为 -39 亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Given the poor fundamentals, AMC had earned our “unattractive” rating even before the meme-stock frenzy took off.</p><p><blockquote>鉴于基本面不佳，AMC 甚至在备忘录股热潮兴起之前就已经获得了我们的 “无吸引力 ”评级。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bbe951b082e43cab215cc75824727b1f\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"599\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <b>Pandemic headwinds persist</b></p><p><blockquote><b>大流行阻力持续存在</b></blockquote></p><p> The shift away from movie theaters to streaming could be permanent. When COVID-19 shut down movie theaters across the globe, production studios initially postponed movie releases. As lockdowns persisted, movie studios started releasing their movies on streaming platforms such as Disney+ and HBO Max, often on the same day as in theaters. Gone was the exclusive window of about three months for theaters to cash in on new releases before they hit streaming platforms.</p><p><blockquote>从电影院到流媒体的转变可能是永久性的。当新冠肺炎关闭全球电影院时，制作公司最初推迟了电影上映。随着封锁的持续，电影制片厂开始在 Disney+ 和 HBO Max 等流媒体平台上发布电影，通常与影院同一天上映。影院在新电影登陆流媒体平台之前大约三个月的独家窗口已经一去不复返了。</blockquote></p><p> Now that consumers got a taste of new movie releases at home, there may be no return to the old model. In a survey conducted in May 2020, 70% of respondents indicated they would rather watch new movies at home, even if theaters were opened.</p><p><blockquote>现在消费者已经在家里尝到了新电影上映的滋味，可能不会回到旧模式。在2020年5月进行的一项调查中，70%的受访者表示，即使影院开业，他们也宁愿在家观看新电影。</blockquote></p><p> Accordingly, Disney began sending movies originally intended for theatrical release directly to its streaming service in mid 2020. Similarly, AT&T’s Warner Bros. announced in December 2020 that it would launch every 2021 movie on HBO Max at the same time as theaters. As David Sims, a writer for The Atlantic put it, “audiences will have little incentive to pay more to see these films in theaters.”</p><p><blockquote>因此，迪士尼在2020年年中开始将原本打算在影院上映的电影直接发送到其流媒体服务。同样，AT&T 旗下的华纳兄弟公司也在 2020 年 12 月宣布，将在影院的同时在 HBO Max 上推出 2021 年的所有电影。正如《大西洋月刊》撰稿人大卫-西姆斯（David Sims）所说，“观众几乎没有动力花更多的钱在影院观看这些电影”。</blockquote></p><p> However, poor fundamentals and structural headwinds didn’t stop AMC Entertainment’s stock from soaring during the meme-stock frenzy. To give readers a sense of just how crazy-overvalued the stock was at its peak, we do the math and show how the business would have to perform to justify a price of $20 a share, which it reached in late January.</p><p><blockquote>然而，糟糕的基本面和结构性阻力并没有阻止AMC院线的股价在备忘录股狂潮中飙升。为了让读者了解该股在巅峰时期的估值有多么疯狂，我们进行了计算，并展示了该公司必须如何表现才能证明其在 1 月底达到的每股 20 美元的价格是合理的。</blockquote></p><p> <b>‘Crazy’ at $20 explained: It implies market share rises from 13% to 54%</b></p><p><blockquote><b>20 美元的 “疯狂 ”解释： 这意味着市场份额将从 13% 上升到 54%</b></blockquote></p><p> Our reverse discounted cash flow (DCF) model shows that to justify a $20 share price, AMC Entertainment must:</p><p><blockquote>我们的反向贴现现金流 (DCF) 模型表明，为了证明 20 美元的股价是合理的，AMC院线必须：</blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>immediately improve its profit margin to 14%, which equals the highest in company history (2013), compared with 8% in 2019, and</li> <li>grow revenue by 36% compounded annually for the next decade, which is based on growing at consensus estimates in 2021 (113%) and 2022 (81%), and 24% each year thereafter (well above 9% consensus revenue estimate for 2023)</li> </ul> In this scenario, AMC Entertainment earns nearly $27 billion in revenue in 2030, which is nearly five times more than its previous record revenue of $5.5 billion in 2019 and around 220% of 2020 global box-office revenue.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>立即将其利润率提升至14%，相当于公司历史上（2013年）的最高水平，而2019年为8%，以及</li><li>未来十年收入复合年增长率为 36%，这是基于 2021 年 (113%) 和 2022 年 (81%) 的共识预期增长，此后每年增长 24%（远高于 2023 年 9% 的共识收入预期）</li></ul>在这种情况下，AMC院线在2030年将获得近270亿美元的收入，这是其2019年创纪录的55亿美元收入的近五倍，约占2020年全球票房收入的220%。</blockquote></p><p> If we assume global box-office revenue grows at projected rates from 2020 to 2025 and grows 3.7% a year (equal to CAGR from 2009 to 2019) from 2025 through 2030, the scenario above implies AMC Entertainment’s revenue would reach 54% of the global box-office revenue in 2030, up a good bit from about 13% in 2019.</p><p><blockquote>如果我们假设全球票房收入从 2020 年到 2025 年以预计速度增长，从 2025 年到 2030 年每年增长 3.7%（相当于 2009 年至 2019 年的复合年增长率），那么上述情况意味着AMC院线的收入将在 2030 年达到全球票房收入的 54%，比 2019 年的约 13% 有所提高。</blockquote></p><p> This chart compares AMC Entertainment’s historical revenue and share of the global box office to its implied revenue and share of the 2030 projected global box office for this scenario.</p><p><blockquote>本图表将AMC院线的历史收入和全球票房份额与其在 2030 年预计全球票房中的隐含收入和份额进行了比较。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/691ff3bb07b6f196641d0f67f323a00e\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"624\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <b>Still crazy at $10</b></p><p><blockquote><b>10 美元仍然疯狂</b></blockquote></p><p> For perspective on the current price, we run the same analysis to show what the company must do to justify a share price of $10 – which is lower than where it now trades:</p><p><blockquote>为了了解当前价格，我们进行了相同的分析，以显示该公司必须采取哪些措施来证明 10 美元的股价（低于其目前的交易价格）的合理性：</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <ul> <li>immediately improve its profit margin to 14% (its all-time high in 2013) and</li> <li>grow revenue by 32% compounded annually for the next decade (which is well above projected box office revenue CAGR of 21% through 2025) revenue.</li> </ul> In this scenario, AMC Entertainment’s revenue would be 39% of the estimated global box office revenue in 2030 (based on same assumptions as above). This next chart compares AMC Entertainment’s historical revenue and share of the global box office to its implied revenue and share of the 2030 projected global box office for this scenario.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>立即将利润率提升至14%（二零一三年创历史新高）及</li><li>未来十年收入每年复合增长32%（远高于到2025年21%的预计票房收入CAGR）。</li></ul>在这种情况下，AMC院线的收入将占 2030 年全球预计票房收入的 39%（基于与上述相同的假设）。下一张图表将AMC院线的历史收入和全球票房份额与其在 2030 年预计全球票房中的隐含收入和份额进行了比较。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dc20a5dcf1dfdd3b9e767ddd3a49b0d1\" tg-width=\"1259\" tg-height=\"626\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <b>The s</b><b>tock is not worth $1</b></p><p><blockquote><b>s</b><b>tock 不值 1 美元</b></blockquote></p><p> Given that the performance required to justify a $10 share price is ridiculous, we dig deeper to see if this stock is worth buying at any price.</p><p><blockquote>鉴于证明 10 美元股价合理性所需的业绩是荒谬的，我们深入挖掘，看看这只股票是否值得以任何价格购买。</blockquote></p><p> The answer is no.</p><p><blockquote>答案是不。</blockquote></p><p> Given $9.8 billion in total debt, $44 million in underfunded pensions, $40 million in net deferred tax liabilities and $27 million in minority interests, it is unlikely that the company will ever make enough money to satisfy stakeholders who have higher claims on the firm’s cash flows.</p><p><blockquote>鉴于 98 亿美元的债务总额、4400 万美元资金不足的养老金、4000 万美元的净递延所得税负债和 2700 万美元的少数股东权益，该公司不太可能赚到足够的钱来满足对公司现金流有更高要求的利益相关者。</blockquote></p><p> In other words, we do not think equity investors will ever see $1 of economic earnings.</p><p><blockquote>换句话说，我们认为股票投资者永远不会看到 1 美元的经济收益。</blockquote></p><p> AMC is selling stock to exploit gambling investors</p><p><blockquote>AMC 正在出售股票以剥削赌博投资者</blockquote></p><p> Taking advantage of its ultra-high valuation, AMC sold around 312 million new shares in the fourth quarter of 2020 and the first quarter of 2021, or more than double the number of shares outstanding at the end of the third quarter of 2020, and significantly diluted investors’ equity stakes.</p><p><blockquote>利用其超高估值，AMC 在 2020 年第四季度和 2021 年第一季度出售了约 3.12 亿股新股，是 2020 年第三季度末流通股数量的两倍多，并大幅稀释了投资者的股权。</blockquote></p><p> On Tuesday, it said it would sell another 43 million shares but called off its controversial plan to seek approval to issue 500 million shares.</p><p><blockquote>周二，该公司表示将再出售 4300 万股股票，但取消了有争议的寻求批准发行 5 亿股股票的计划。</blockquote></p><p> Given the stock’s drop of more than 5% on Wednesday in a flat market, equity investors appear to be catching on that the company is cashing in on their gullibility by selling them shares at elevated prices.</p><p><blockquote>鉴于该股周三在市场持平的情况下跌幅超过 5%，股票投资者似乎意识到该公司正在通过高价出售股票来套现他们的轻信行为。</blockquote></p><p> Sure, raising cash staves off bankruptcy, but that delay only helps equity investors if the company can generate profits large enough to pay off debtholders and other stakeholders with senior claims. Even so, the likelihood of the company ever generating the future cash flows required to justify the current valuation is very, very low.</p><p><blockquote>当然，筹集现金可以避免破产，但如果公司能够产生足够大的利润来偿还债务人和其他有优先债权的利益相关者，这种延迟只会对股权投资者有所帮助。即便如此，该公司产生证明当前估值所需的未来现金流的可能性也非常非常低。</blockquote></p><p> Buyer beware.</p><p><blockquote>买家小心。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/should-you-buy-amc-stock-these-analysts-say-not-at-any-price-11619697643?mod=newsviewer_click\">MarketWatch</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AMC":"AMC院线"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/should-you-buy-amc-stock-these-analysts-say-not-at-any-price-11619697643?mod=newsviewer_click","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1119597750","content_text":"Here’s what it would take to justify today’s stock price\nThe AMC Empire 25 off Times Square reopened on March 5. AFP VIA GETTY IMAGES\nAMC Entertainment Holdings is not worth owning at any price, barring a drastic change to its business model. Given poor fundamentals and a mountain of debt (221% of market cap), we don’t see how equity investors will have a claim to any future profits, especially given the headwinds facing the movie theater industry.\nMaking matters worse, the company continues to issue new shares, like the recent 43-million share sale, so equity investors claims on any future profits are further diluted.\n\nFundamentals were bad before the COVID-19 pandemic\nMovie theater operator AMC Entertainment had its moment as a meme stock at the same time it was staving off bankruptcy, which illustrates how little the stock’s rise was related to the firm’s fundamentals.\nApart from bankruptcy concerns, AMC’s business operations had been trending in the wrong direction even prior to the COVID-19 pandemic. We calculate that AMC’s core earnings fell from $114 million in 2013 to around $30 million in 2019. The firm burned through $5.2 billion in free cash flow (FCF) from 2014-2019. FCF was -$3.9 billion in 2020.\nGiven the poor fundamentals, AMC had earned our “unattractive” rating even before the meme-stock frenzy took off.\n\nPandemic headwinds persist\nThe shift away from movie theaters to streaming could be permanent. When COVID-19 shut down movie theaters across the globe, production studios initially postponed movie releases. As lockdowns persisted, movie studios started releasing their movies on streaming platforms such as Disney+ and HBO Max, often on the same day as in theaters. Gone was the exclusive window of about three months for theaters to cash in on new releases before they hit streaming platforms.\nNow that consumers got a taste of new movie releases at home, there may be no return to the old model. In a survey conducted in May 2020, 70% of respondents indicated they would rather watch new movies at home, even if theaters were opened.\nAccordingly, Disney began sending movies originally intended for theatrical release directly to its streaming service in mid 2020. Similarly, AT&T’s Warner Bros. announced in December 2020 that it would launch every 2021 movie on HBO Max at the same time as theaters. As David Sims, a writer for The Atlantic put it, “audiences will have little incentive to pay more to see these films in theaters.”\nHowever, poor fundamentals and structural headwinds didn’t stop AMC Entertainment’s stock from soaring during the meme-stock frenzy. To give readers a sense of just how crazy-overvalued the stock was at its peak, we do the math and show how the business would have to perform to justify a price of $20 a share, which it reached in late January.\n‘Crazy’ at $20 explained: It implies market share rises from 13% to 54%\nOur reverse discounted cash flow (DCF) model shows that to justify a $20 share price, AMC Entertainment must:\n\nimmediately improve its profit margin to 14%, which equals the highest in company history (2013), compared with 8% in 2019, and\ngrow revenue by 36% compounded annually for the next decade, which is based on growing at consensus estimates in 2021 (113%) and 2022 (81%), and 24% each year thereafter (well above 9% consensus revenue estimate for 2023)\n\nIn this scenario, AMC Entertainment earns nearly $27 billion in revenue in 2030, which is nearly five times more than its previous record revenue of $5.5 billion in 2019 and around 220% of 2020 global box-office revenue.\nIf we assume global box-office revenue grows at projected rates from 2020 to 2025 and grows 3.7% a year (equal to CAGR from 2009 to 2019) from 2025 through 2030, the scenario above implies AMC Entertainment’s revenue would reach 54% of the global box-office revenue in 2030, up a good bit from about 13% in 2019.\nThis chart compares AMC Entertainment’s historical revenue and share of the global box office to its implied revenue and share of the 2030 projected global box office for this scenario.\n\nStill crazy at $10\nFor perspective on the current price, we run the same analysis to show what the company must do to justify a share price of $10 – which is lower than where it now trades:\n\nimmediately improve its profit margin to 14% (its all-time high in 2013) and\ngrow revenue by 32% compounded annually for the next decade (which is well above projected box office revenue CAGR of 21% through 2025) revenue.\n\nIn this scenario, AMC Entertainment’s revenue would be 39% of the estimated global box office revenue in 2030 (based on same assumptions as above). This next chart compares AMC Entertainment’s historical revenue and share of the global box office to its implied revenue and share of the 2030 projected global box office for this scenario.\n\nThe stock is not worth $1\nGiven that the performance required to justify a $10 share price is ridiculous, we dig deeper to see if this stock is worth buying at any price.\nThe answer is no.\nGiven $9.8 billion in total debt, $44 million in underfunded pensions, $40 million in net deferred tax liabilities and $27 million in minority interests, it is unlikely that the company will ever make enough money to satisfy stakeholders who have higher claims on the firm’s cash flows.\nIn other words, we do not think equity investors will ever see $1 of economic earnings.\nAMC is selling stock to exploit gambling investors\nTaking advantage of its ultra-high valuation, AMC sold around 312 million new shares in the fourth quarter of 2020 and the first quarter of 2021, or more than double the number of shares outstanding at the end of the third quarter of 2020, and significantly diluted investors’ equity stakes.\nOn Tuesday, it said it would sell another 43 million shares but called off its controversial plan to seek approval to issue 500 million shares.\nGiven the stock’s drop of more than 5% on Wednesday in a flat market, equity investors appear to be catching on that the company is cashing in on their gullibility by selling them shares at elevated prices.\nSure, raising cash staves off bankruptcy, but that delay only helps equity investors if the company can generate profits large enough to pay off debtholders and other stakeholders with senior claims. Even so, the likelihood of the company ever generating the future cash flows required to justify the current valuation is very, very low.\nBuyer beware.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AMC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2650,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":8,"subscribersOnly":false,"subscribersOnlyAccessible":false,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/103186334"}
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