barracuda
2021-06-04
Interesting
ARKX Will Be ARK's Most Resilient ETF During The Coming Great Valuation Reset<blockquote>在即将到来的估值大重置期间，ARKX将成为ARK最具弹性的ETF</blockquote>
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According to Jerome Powell's guidance, the Fed will only consider tapering QE and increasing interest rates after substantial progress towards maximum employment and a normalized 2% inflation rate.</p><p><blockquote>失业率是一个受到密切监控的指标，因为它对股市有重大影响。根据杰罗姆·鲍威尔的指导，只有在就业最大化和2%通胀率正常化方面取得实质性进展后，美联储才会考虑缩减QE和加息。</blockquote></p><p> Analysts are speculating that the Fed will taper and increase interest rates as soon as this year-end. The initial jobless claims in May may have just validated their prediction. The jobless claim numbers released on Thursday are considered to be substantial progress for 2 reasons. Firstly, it fell below 400,000 for the first time since the Covid-19 pandemic. Secondly, the number (385,000) came lower than the consensus estimate (393,000).</p><p><blockquote>分析师猜测，美联储最快将在今年年底缩减并加息。5月份首次申请失业救济人数可能刚刚验证了他们的预测。周四公布的初请失业金人数被认为是实质性进展，原因有二。首先，自新冠肺炎疫情以来首次跌破40万。其次，这一数字（385,000）低于普遍估计（393,000）。</blockquote></p><p> If the analysts' predictions are realized, the great valuation that we all fear will very likely follow. In such circumstances, value-oriented stocks with strong and visible earnings will be more resilient than growth stocks.</p><p><blockquote>如果分析师的预测成真，我们都担心的高估值很可能会随之而来。在这种情况下，盈利强劲且可见的价值导向型股票将比成长型股票更具弹性。</blockquote></p><p> Cathie Wood ARK ETFs are known to focus on innovation and growth. She said that:</p><p><blockquote>众所周知，Cathie Wood ARK ETF专注于创新和增长。她说：</blockquote></p><p> I do believe if rates were to take a sharp turn up, that we would see a valuation reset and our portfolios would be prime candidates for that valuation reset of course. However, at that time, the ARK Space Exploration & Innovation ETF(BATS:ARKX)has not been established yet. Therefore, ARKX may not be one of the prime candidates for a valuation reset. Furthermore, Cathie Wood said that investors could find many value-oriented stocks in ARKX. This should mean that ARKX should be more resilient than the other ARK ETFs.</p><p><blockquote>我确实相信，如果利率大幅上升，我们将看到估值重置，而我们的投资组合当然将是估值重置的主要候选者。然而，当时方舟太空探索与创新ETF（BATS：ARKX）尚未成立。因此，ARKX可能不是估值重置的主要候选者之一。此外，Cathie Wood表示，投资者可以在ARKX中找到许多价值导向的股票。这应该意味着ARKX应该比其他ARK ETF更具弹性。</blockquote></p><p> Therefore, this article examines how resilient ARKX is compared to the other ARK ETFs during a valuation reset.</p><p><blockquote>因此，本文研究了ARKX与其他ARK ETF相比在估值重置期间的弹性。</blockquote></p><p> Chart 1: Initial Jobless Claims</p><p><blockquote>图表1：首次申请失业救济人数</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a0522f63354ea6311fae61781d375935\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"390\"><span>Source:CNBC</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：CNBC</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>What is ARKX in the eyes of its creator?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>ARKX在其创造者眼中是什么？</b></blockquote></p><p> According to Cathie Wood, ARKX is currently mainly connectivity and precision agriculture with autonomous tractors and drones. These applications are powered by a common technology, a constellation of satellites. Other than connectivity and precision agriculture, hypersonic flights are also what ARKX is very interested in, and the involved companies tend to be value stocks.</p><p><blockquote>据Cathie Wood介绍，ARKX目前主要是拥有自主拖拉机和无人机的连接和精准农业。这些应用由一种通用技术——卫星星座——提供支持。除了连接和精准农业，高超音速飞行也是ARKX非常感兴趣的，涉及的公司往往是价值股。</blockquote></p><p> Therefore, ARKX's holdings are built around companies involved in those supply chains. ARKX's holdings as of 3rd June 2021 are presented in Table 1.</p><p><blockquote>因此，ARKX的持股是围绕参与这些供应链的公司建立的。截至2021年6月3日，ARKX的持股情况如表1所示。</blockquote></p><p> Table 1: ARKX's holdings as of 3rd June 2021</p><p><blockquote>表1：截至2021年6月3日ARKX的持股情况</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e1ff2f8e3046c7211d1b9738878e7c64\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"495\"><span>Source:ARK Invest</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：方舟投资</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>How do we examine a fund's resilience?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>我们如何考察基金的弹性？</b></blockquote></p><p> We're going to examine ARKX's resilience using the following metrics:</p><p><blockquote>我们将使用以下指标来检查ARKX的弹性：</blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>Distribution of profitable companies in each fund's top 10 holdings</li> <li>Distribution of P/S ratio of each fund's top 10 holdings</li> <li>Distribution of P/E ratio of each fund's top 10 holdings</li> <li>Net interest income of each fund's top 10 holdings</li> <li>Operating cash flow of each fund's top 10 holdings</li> </ul> These metrics are chosen using the following rationale:</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>各基金前十大重仓股中盈利公司分布</li><li>各基金前十大重仓股市盈率分布</li><li>各基金前十大重仓股市盈率分布</li><li>各基金前十大重仓股的净利息收入</li><li>各基金前十大重仓股经营现金流</li></ul>这些指标的选择依据如下：</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <ul> <li>Profitable companies are less prone to valuation reset. Therefore, funds that hold more profitable companies are less prone to valuation reset as well. P/E and P/S ratios are chosen as a measurement of valuation.</li> <li>Net interest income shows how much interest expense is incurred by the company. In contrast, companies with positive operating cash flow are less likely to borrow money when the cost of capital is expensive. Free cash flow isn't used because free cash flow can be derived from the sale of assets or financing.</li> </ul> <b>How resilient is ARKX in a valuation reset compared to other ARK ETFs?</b></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>盈利的公司不太容易出现估值重置。因此，持有盈利能力较强公司的基金也不太容易出现估值重置。市盈率和市盈率被选为估值的衡量标准。</li><li>净利息收入显示公司发生了多少利息支出。相比之下，当资金成本昂贵时，经营性现金流为正的公司不太可能借钱。不使用自由现金流，因为自由现金流可以来自出售资产或融资。</li></ul><b>与其他ARK ETF相比，ARKX在估值重置中的弹性如何？</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>Distribution of profitable companies in each fund's top 10 holdings</b></p><p><blockquote><b>各基金前十大重仓股盈利公司分布</b></blockquote></p><p> Chart 2 to Chart 5 illustrates the PE ratio of ARK ETFs' top 10 holdings. PE ratios of loss-making companies are not applicable. The distribution of profitable companies in each fund's top 10 holdings is presented in Table 2. We can observe that only 66% of ARKX's top 10 holdings are profitable. This is incomplete as the degree of profitability relative to its valuation is not considered.</p><p><blockquote>图2至图5显示了ARK ETF前10名持股的市盈率。亏损公司的市盈率不适用。各基金前10大重仓股中盈利公司分布如表2所示。我们可以观察到，ARKX的前10大持股中只有66%是盈利的。这是不完整的，因为没有考虑相对于其估值的盈利程度。</blockquote></p><p> Table 2: Distribution of Profitable Companies</p><p><blockquote>表2：盈利公司分布</blockquote></p><p> <table> <tbody> <tr> <td>Funds</td> <td>Distribution of Profitable Companies</td> </tr> <tr> <td>ARKX</td> <td>66%</td> </tr> <tr> <td>ARKK/ARKW]]</td> <td>60%</td> </tr> <tr> <td>ARKQ</td> <td>80%</td> </tr> <tr> <td>ARKF</td> <td>70%</td> </tr> </tbody> </table> Source: Author, YCharts</p><p><blockquote><table><tbody><tr><td>基金</td><td>盈利公司分布</td></tr><tr><td>ARKX</td><td>66%</td></tr><tr><td>方舟/方舟]]</td><td>60%</td></tr><tr><td>ARKQ</td><td>80%</td></tr><tr><td>ARKF</td><td>70%</td></tr></tbody></table>资料来源：作者，YCharts</blockquote></p><p> <b>Distribution of P/S ratio of each fund's top 10 holdings</b></p><p><blockquote><b>各基金前十大重仓股市盈率分布</b></blockquote></p><p> PE ratio reflects a company's degree of profitability relative to its valuation. Our perspective changed when we consider the PE ratio of the funds' top 10 holdings. We observed that the PE ratio of ARKX's top 10 holdings is significantly lower than other ARK ETFs' top 10 holdings. This implies that ARKX's holdings have the highest margin of safety, such that ARKX is the least prone to sharp decline compared to other ARK ETFs.</p><p><blockquote>市盈率反映了公司相对于其估值的盈利程度。当我们考虑基金十大持股的市盈率时，我们的观点发生了变化。我们观察到，ARKX前10大重仓股的市盈率明显低于其他ARK ETF的前10大重仓股。这意味着ARKX的持股具有最高的安全边际，因此与其他ARK ETF相比，ARKX最不容易大幅下跌。</blockquote></p><p> Chart 2: PE ratio of ARKX's top 10 holdings</p><p><blockquote>图表2：ARKX前10大持股市盈率</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9d8c0516a04a4a867dc54427ef34c0d6\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"538\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Chart 3: PE ratio of ARKK/ARKW's top 10 holdings</p><p><blockquote>图表3：ARKK/ARKW前10大持股市盈率</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/25a88c68635ccc1bf173eab00cc98edf\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"555\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Chart 4: PE ratio of ARKQ's top 10 holdings</p><p><blockquote>图表4：ARKQ前10大持股市盈率</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/754341910a51fce58308754d87316cba\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"563\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Chart 5: PE ratio of ARKF's top 10 holdings</p><p><blockquote>图表5：ARKF前10大持股市盈率</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ce029b11165323683df57983ffce549d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"564\"><span>Sources: YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Distribution of P/S ratio of each fund's top 10 holdings</b></p><p><blockquote><b>各基金前十大重仓股市盈率分布</b></blockquote></p><p> Since the loss-making companies from ARK ETFs' top 10 holdings are not considered when analyzing PE ratio, we examine their PS ratio for a more robust comparison. Chart 6 to Chart 9 represents the PS ratio of ARK ETF's top 10 holdings.</p><p><blockquote>由于在分析市盈率时不考虑ARK ETF前10大持股中的亏损公司，因此我们检查它们的市盈率以进行更稳健的比较。图6至图9代表ARK ETF前10大持股的PS比率。</blockquote></p><p> The conclusion from the PS ratio comparison aligns with the PE ratio comparison. ARKX's top 10 holdings have the lowest PS ratio than the top 10 holdings of other ARK ETFs. This also implies that ARKX has the highest margin of safety compared to other ARK ETFs.</p><p><blockquote>PS比率比较的结论与PE比率比较一致。ARKX的前10名持股的市盈率低于其他ARK ETF的前10名持股。这也意味着与其他ARK ETF相比，ARKX具有最高的安全边际。</blockquote></p><p> Chart 6: PS ratio of ARKX's top 10 holdings</p><p><blockquote>图表6：ARKX前10大持股PS比率</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/52762a7f513a9d130f9afd83ee2f5318\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"538\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Chart 7: PS ratio of ARKK/ARKW's top 10 holdings</p><p><blockquote>图表7：ARKK/ARKW前10大持仓PS比率</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ddb55b54a5fe68eec46705578de503ef\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"555\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Chart 8: PS ratio of ARKQ's top 10 holdings</p><p><blockquote>图表8：ARKQ前10大持股PS比率</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f640f1c7f7ade55aa406911da9db2374\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"556\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Chart 9: PS ratio of ARKF's top 10 holdings</p><p><blockquote>图表9：ARKF前10大持股PS比率</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6451ac91204829c35c47989cb4f6a696\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"561\"><span>Sources: YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Net interest income of each fund's top 10 holdings</b></p><p><blockquote><b>各基金前十大重仓股的净利息收入</b></blockquote></p><p> Chart 10 to Chart 13 represents the net interest income of ARK ETF's top 10 holdings. The higher the net interest income, the better. This is because higher interest rates will boost both interest income and interest expense.</p><p><blockquote>图10至图13代表了ARK ETF前10大持股的净利息收入。净利息收入越高越好。这是因为较高的利率将增加利息收入和利息支出。</blockquote></p><p> ARKX's top 10 holdings have the worse net interest income, where only 1 of the 10 companies enjoys positive net interest income. We found that this is due to higher exposure to aviation-related companies. For instance, Boeing (BA) has taken a $13.8bil loan to help deal with cash burns due to the pandemic.</p><p><blockquote>ARKX前10大持股的净利息收入最差，10家公司中只有1家净利息收入为正。我们发现，这是由于对航空相关公司的敞口较高。例如，波音(BA)已获得138亿美元贷款，以帮助应对疫情造成的现金消耗。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Nevertheless, ARKX's holdings are likely to suffer more interest expense (and decreased earnings) as the Fed starts selling corporate bonds and raise interest rates. If interest rates become too burdensome, these holdings might even face higher liquidity risks than other ARK ETFs' holdings. Therefore, ARKX is not as resilient to rising interest rates compared to other ARK ETFs.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，随着美联储开始出售公司债券并提高利率，ARKX的持股可能会遭受更多的利息支出（以及收益下降）。如果利率变得过于沉重，这些持有的股票甚至可能比其他ARK ETF持有的股票面临更高的流动性风险。因此，与其他ARK ETF相比，ARKX对利率上升的弹性并不那么强。</blockquote></p><p> Chart 10: Net Interest Income of ARKX's top 10 holdings</p><p><blockquote>图表10：ARKX前10大持股净利息收入</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aae97de917f8f8453ddc2122842575c3\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"538\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Chart 11: Net Interest Income of ARKK/ARKW's top 10 holdings</p><p><blockquote>图表11：ARKK/ARKW前十大持仓股的净利息收入</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/91020c77a6f72b41e4e2f751d792cc9b\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"555\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Chart 12: Net Interest Income of ARKQ's top 10 holdings</p><p><blockquote>图表12：ARKQ前十大持股的净利息收入</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a3127f54419a06a34266c0ff575b051e\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"561\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Chart 13: Net Interest Income of ARKF's top 10 holdings</p><p><blockquote>图表13：ARKF前10大持股的净利息收入</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4078bb131d967717ec7b7b8abe6c2fc7\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"563\"><span>Sources: YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Operating cash flow of each fund's top 10 holdings</b></p><p><blockquote><b>各基金前十大重仓股经营现金流</b></blockquote></p><p> In terms of cash flow from operating activities, the top 10 holdings of ARK ETFs have similar performance, except Boeing. This means that ARK ETFs' top 10 holdings can generate cash flow from its core business. Hence it is less likely that the companies will require debt for operation when interest rates rise. No standout winner in this category.</p><p><blockquote>在经营活动现金流方面，ARK ETF的前10大重仓股表现类似，除了波音。这意味着ARK ETF的前10大持股可以从其核心业务中产生现金流。因此，当利率上升时，这些公司不太可能需要债务来运营。这个类别中没有突出的赢家。</blockquote></p><p> Chart 14: Operating cash flow of ARKX's top 10 holdings</p><p><blockquote>图表14：ARKX前10大持股的经营性现金流</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/97cfa80d6884328c6b12398286388af1\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"538\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Chart 15: Operating cash flow of ARKK/ARKW's top 10 holdings</p><p><blockquote>图表15：ARKK/ARKW前十大持仓股经营性现金流</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/865551e5dfc447955b74b3a08dddffaf\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"555\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Chart 16: Operating cash flow of ARKQ's top 10 holdings</p><p><blockquote>图表16：ARKQ前十大持股的经营性现金流</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/51cc4f2b3d1d067ae8a19638c12c534b\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"561\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Chart 17: Operating cash flow of ARKF's top 10 holdings</p><p><blockquote>图表17：ARKF前10大持股的经营性现金流</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c6e8f179f43f3be1ad1efc323a038e7d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"564\"><span>Sources: YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Conclusion and final remark</b></p><p><blockquote><b>结论和结束语</b></blockquote></p><p> May's initial jobless claims can be considered as the substantial progress the Fed is referring to. A great valuation will likely follow in the event of the Fed's taper tantrum and rising interest rates. Therefore, it is important to rotate into cash- or value-oriented stock as companies with visible earnings will sustain less devaluation from higher required returns.</p><p><blockquote>5月份的首次申请失业救济人数可以被认为是美联储所指的实质性进展。如果美联储缩减规模和利率上升，估值可能会随之而来。因此，转向现金或价值导向型股票非常重要，因为具有可见收益的公司将因较高的要求回报而承受较少的贬值。</blockquote></p><p> Cathie Wood claimed that ARKX has a lot of value-oriented companies. This is true, as evident from the PS ratio and PE ratio of ARK ETFs' top 10 holdings. Therefore, ARKX is indeed more resilient to devaluation from rising interest rates.</p><p><blockquote>Cathie Wood声称ARKX有很多以价值为导向的公司。这是事实，从ARK ETF前10大持股的市盈率和市盈率中可以明显看出。因此，ARKX确实对利率上升导致的贬值更具弹性。</blockquote></p><p> However, investors should note that ARKX's holdings are more prone to liquidity risks as its holdings are more exposed to aviation-related companies such as Boeing.</p><p><blockquote>然而，投资者应该注意到，ARKX的持股更容易面临流动性风险，因为其持股更多地暴露于波音等航空相关公司。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>ARKX Will Be ARK's Most Resilient ETF During The Coming Great Valuation Reset<blockquote>在即将到来的估值大重置期间，ARKX将成为ARK最具弹性的ETF</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nARKX Will Be ARK's Most Resilient ETF During The Coming Great Valuation Reset<blockquote>在即将到来的估值大重置期间，ARKX将成为ARK最具弹性的ETF</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-04 19:47</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>Initial jobless claims is an important metric to follow because the Fed will taper and raise interest rates when substantial progress is made towards maximum employment and 2% normalized inflation.</li> <li>May's jobless claim (385,000) came in lower than consensus estimates (393,000), which suggests that substantial progress has been made and a great valuation reset will likely follow.</li> <li>One way to mitigate devaluation during the great reset is to rotate into cash- or value-oriented stocks because companies with visible earnings sustain less devaluation from higher required return.</li> <li>This article found that ARKX is most resilient to devaluation compared to other ARK ETFs because its holdings have the highest margin of safety (lowest PS ratio and PE ratio).</li> <li>However, investors should note that ARKX has higher liquidity risk when interest rates rise due to higher exposure to aviation and negative net interest income.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fe701ac0b2ef85e4c0d697823b9c964a\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"461\"><span>Photo by ra2studio/iStock via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>首次申请失业救济人数是一个值得关注的重要指标，因为当在实现最大就业和2%正常化通胀率方面取得实质性进展时，美联储将缩减和加息。</li><li>5月份申请失业救济人数（385,000人）低于普遍预期（393,000人），这表明已经取得了实质性进展，估值可能会大幅重置。</li><li>在大重置期间减轻贬值的一种方法是转向现金或价值导向型股票，因为具有可见收益的公司因所需回报较高而遭受的贬值较少。</li><li>本文发现，与其他ARK ETF相比，ARKX对贬值的弹性最强，因为其持有的股票具有最高的安全边际（最低的PS比率和PE比率）。</li><li>然而，投资者应注意，由于航空敞口较高且净利息收入为负，ARKX在利率上升时具有较高的流动性风险。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>摄影：ra2studio/iStock，来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Background</b></p><p><blockquote><b>背景</b></blockquote></p><p> Unemployment is a very closely monitored metric because of its significant implication on the stock market. According to Jerome Powell's guidance, the Fed will only consider tapering QE and increasing interest rates after substantial progress towards maximum employment and a normalized 2% inflation rate.</p><p><blockquote>失业率是一个受到密切监控的指标，因为它对股市有重大影响。根据杰罗姆·鲍威尔的指导，只有在就业最大化和2%通胀率正常化方面取得实质性进展后，美联储才会考虑缩减QE和加息。</blockquote></p><p> Analysts are speculating that the Fed will taper and increase interest rates as soon as this year-end. The initial jobless claims in May may have just validated their prediction. The jobless claim numbers released on Thursday are considered to be substantial progress for 2 reasons. Firstly, it fell below 400,000 for the first time since the Covid-19 pandemic. Secondly, the number (385,000) came lower than the consensus estimate (393,000).</p><p><blockquote>分析师猜测，美联储最快将在今年年底缩减并加息。5月份首次申请失业救济人数可能刚刚验证了他们的预测。周四公布的初请失业金人数被认为是实质性进展，原因有二。首先，自新冠肺炎疫情以来首次跌破40万。其次，这一数字（385,000）低于普遍估计（393,000）。</blockquote></p><p> If the analysts' predictions are realized, the great valuation that we all fear will very likely follow. In such circumstances, value-oriented stocks with strong and visible earnings will be more resilient than growth stocks.</p><p><blockquote>如果分析师的预测成真，我们都担心的高估值很可能会随之而来。在这种情况下，盈利强劲且可见的价值导向型股票将比成长型股票更具弹性。</blockquote></p><p> Cathie Wood ARK ETFs are known to focus on innovation and growth. She said that:</p><p><blockquote>众所周知，Cathie Wood ARK ETF专注于创新和增长。她说：</blockquote></p><p> I do believe if rates were to take a sharp turn up, that we would see a valuation reset and our portfolios would be prime candidates for that valuation reset of course. However, at that time, the ARK Space Exploration & Innovation ETF(BATS:ARKX)has not been established yet. Therefore, ARKX may not be one of the prime candidates for a valuation reset. Furthermore, Cathie Wood said that investors could find many value-oriented stocks in ARKX. This should mean that ARKX should be more resilient than the other ARK ETFs.</p><p><blockquote>我确实相信，如果利率大幅上升，我们将看到估值重置，而我们的投资组合当然将是估值重置的主要候选者。然而，当时方舟太空探索与创新ETF（BATS：ARKX）尚未成立。因此，ARKX可能不是估值重置的主要候选者之一。此外，Cathie Wood表示，投资者可以在ARKX中找到许多价值导向的股票。这应该意味着ARKX应该比其他ARK ETF更具弹性。</blockquote></p><p> Therefore, this article examines how resilient ARKX is compared to the other ARK ETFs during a valuation reset.</p><p><blockquote>因此，本文研究了ARKX与其他ARK ETF相比在估值重置期间的弹性。</blockquote></p><p> Chart 1: Initial Jobless Claims</p><p><blockquote>图表1：首次申请失业救济人数</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a0522f63354ea6311fae61781d375935\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"390\"><span>Source:CNBC</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：CNBC</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>What is ARKX in the eyes of its creator?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>ARKX在其创造者眼中是什么？</b></blockquote></p><p> According to Cathie Wood, ARKX is currently mainly connectivity and precision agriculture with autonomous tractors and drones. These applications are powered by a common technology, a constellation of satellites. Other than connectivity and precision agriculture, hypersonic flights are also what ARKX is very interested in, and the involved companies tend to be value stocks.</p><p><blockquote>据Cathie Wood介绍，ARKX目前主要是拥有自主拖拉机和无人机的连接和精准农业。这些应用由一种通用技术——卫星星座——提供支持。除了连接和精准农业，高超音速飞行也是ARKX非常感兴趣的，涉及的公司往往是价值股。</blockquote></p><p> Therefore, ARKX's holdings are built around companies involved in those supply chains. ARKX's holdings as of 3rd June 2021 are presented in Table 1.</p><p><blockquote>因此，ARKX的持股是围绕参与这些供应链的公司建立的。截至2021年6月3日，ARKX的持股情况如表1所示。</blockquote></p><p> Table 1: ARKX's holdings as of 3rd June 2021</p><p><blockquote>表1：截至2021年6月3日ARKX的持股情况</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e1ff2f8e3046c7211d1b9738878e7c64\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"495\"><span>Source:ARK Invest</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：方舟投资</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>How do we examine a fund's resilience?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>我们如何考察基金的弹性？</b></blockquote></p><p> We're going to examine ARKX's resilience using the following metrics:</p><p><blockquote>我们将使用以下指标来检查ARKX的弹性：</blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>Distribution of profitable companies in each fund's top 10 holdings</li> <li>Distribution of P/S ratio of each fund's top 10 holdings</li> <li>Distribution of P/E ratio of each fund's top 10 holdings</li> <li>Net interest income of each fund's top 10 holdings</li> <li>Operating cash flow of each fund's top 10 holdings</li> </ul> These metrics are chosen using the following rationale:</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>各基金前十大重仓股中盈利公司分布</li><li>各基金前十大重仓股市盈率分布</li><li>各基金前十大重仓股市盈率分布</li><li>各基金前十大重仓股的净利息收入</li><li>各基金前十大重仓股经营现金流</li></ul>这些指标的选择依据如下：</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <ul> <li>Profitable companies are less prone to valuation reset. Therefore, funds that hold more profitable companies are less prone to valuation reset as well. P/E and P/S ratios are chosen as a measurement of valuation.</li> <li>Net interest income shows how much interest expense is incurred by the company. In contrast, companies with positive operating cash flow are less likely to borrow money when the cost of capital is expensive. Free cash flow isn't used because free cash flow can be derived from the sale of assets or financing.</li> </ul> <b>How resilient is ARKX in a valuation reset compared to other ARK ETFs?</b></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>盈利的公司不太容易出现估值重置。因此，持有盈利能力较强公司的基金也不太容易出现估值重置。市盈率和市盈率被选为估值的衡量标准。</li><li>净利息收入显示公司发生了多少利息支出。相比之下，当资金成本昂贵时，经营性现金流为正的公司不太可能借钱。不使用自由现金流，因为自由现金流可以来自出售资产或融资。</li></ul><b>与其他ARK ETF相比，ARKX在估值重置中的弹性如何？</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>Distribution of profitable companies in each fund's top 10 holdings</b></p><p><blockquote><b>各基金前十大重仓股盈利公司分布</b></blockquote></p><p> Chart 2 to Chart 5 illustrates the PE ratio of ARK ETFs' top 10 holdings. PE ratios of loss-making companies are not applicable. The distribution of profitable companies in each fund's top 10 holdings is presented in Table 2. We can observe that only 66% of ARKX's top 10 holdings are profitable. This is incomplete as the degree of profitability relative to its valuation is not considered.</p><p><blockquote>图2至图5显示了ARK ETF前10名持股的市盈率。亏损公司的市盈率不适用。各基金前10大重仓股中盈利公司分布如表2所示。我们可以观察到，ARKX的前10大持股中只有66%是盈利的。这是不完整的，因为没有考虑相对于其估值的盈利程度。</blockquote></p><p> Table 2: Distribution of Profitable Companies</p><p><blockquote>表2：盈利公司分布</blockquote></p><p> <table> <tbody> <tr> <td>Funds</td> <td>Distribution of Profitable Companies</td> </tr> <tr> <td>ARKX</td> <td>66%</td> </tr> <tr> <td>ARKK/ARKW]]</td> <td>60%</td> </tr> <tr> <td>ARKQ</td> <td>80%</td> </tr> <tr> <td>ARKF</td> <td>70%</td> </tr> </tbody> </table> Source: Author, YCharts</p><p><blockquote><table><tbody><tr><td>基金</td><td>盈利公司分布</td></tr><tr><td>ARKX</td><td>66%</td></tr><tr><td>方舟/方舟]]</td><td>60%</td></tr><tr><td>ARKQ</td><td>80%</td></tr><tr><td>ARKF</td><td>70%</td></tr></tbody></table>资料来源：作者，YCharts</blockquote></p><p> <b>Distribution of P/S ratio of each fund's top 10 holdings</b></p><p><blockquote><b>各基金前十大重仓股市盈率分布</b></blockquote></p><p> PE ratio reflects a company's degree of profitability relative to its valuation. Our perspective changed when we consider the PE ratio of the funds' top 10 holdings. We observed that the PE ratio of ARKX's top 10 holdings is significantly lower than other ARK ETFs' top 10 holdings. This implies that ARKX's holdings have the highest margin of safety, such that ARKX is the least prone to sharp decline compared to other ARK ETFs.</p><p><blockquote>市盈率反映了公司相对于其估值的盈利程度。当我们考虑基金十大持股的市盈率时，我们的观点发生了变化。我们观察到，ARKX前10大重仓股的市盈率明显低于其他ARK ETF的前10大重仓股。这意味着ARKX的持股具有最高的安全边际，因此与其他ARK ETF相比，ARKX最不容易大幅下跌。</blockquote></p><p> Chart 2: PE ratio of ARKX's top 10 holdings</p><p><blockquote>图表2：ARKX前10大持股市盈率</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9d8c0516a04a4a867dc54427ef34c0d6\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"538\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Chart 3: PE ratio of ARKK/ARKW's top 10 holdings</p><p><blockquote>图表3：ARKK/ARKW前10大持股市盈率</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/25a88c68635ccc1bf173eab00cc98edf\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"555\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Chart 4: PE ratio of ARKQ's top 10 holdings</p><p><blockquote>图表4：ARKQ前10大持股市盈率</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/754341910a51fce58308754d87316cba\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"563\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Chart 5: PE ratio of ARKF's top 10 holdings</p><p><blockquote>图表5：ARKF前10大持股市盈率</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ce029b11165323683df57983ffce549d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"564\"><span>Sources: YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Distribution of P/S ratio of each fund's top 10 holdings</b></p><p><blockquote><b>各基金前十大重仓股市盈率分布</b></blockquote></p><p> Since the loss-making companies from ARK ETFs' top 10 holdings are not considered when analyzing PE ratio, we examine their PS ratio for a more robust comparison. Chart 6 to Chart 9 represents the PS ratio of ARK ETF's top 10 holdings.</p><p><blockquote>由于在分析市盈率时不考虑ARK ETF前10大持股中的亏损公司，因此我们检查它们的市盈率以进行更稳健的比较。图6至图9代表ARK ETF前10大持股的PS比率。</blockquote></p><p> The conclusion from the PS ratio comparison aligns with the PE ratio comparison. ARKX's top 10 holdings have the lowest PS ratio than the top 10 holdings of other ARK ETFs. This also implies that ARKX has the highest margin of safety compared to other ARK ETFs.</p><p><blockquote>PS比率比较的结论与PE比率比较一致。ARKX的前10名持股的市盈率低于其他ARK ETF的前10名持股。这也意味着与其他ARK ETF相比，ARKX具有最高的安全边际。</blockquote></p><p> Chart 6: PS ratio of ARKX's top 10 holdings</p><p><blockquote>图表6：ARKX前10大持股PS比率</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/52762a7f513a9d130f9afd83ee2f5318\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"538\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Chart 7: PS ratio of ARKK/ARKW's top 10 holdings</p><p><blockquote>图表7：ARKK/ARKW前10大持仓PS比率</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ddb55b54a5fe68eec46705578de503ef\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"555\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Chart 8: PS ratio of ARKQ's top 10 holdings</p><p><blockquote>图表8：ARKQ前10大持股PS比率</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f640f1c7f7ade55aa406911da9db2374\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"556\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Chart 9: PS ratio of ARKF's top 10 holdings</p><p><blockquote>图表9：ARKF前10大持股PS比率</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6451ac91204829c35c47989cb4f6a696\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"561\"><span>Sources: YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Net interest income of each fund's top 10 holdings</b></p><p><blockquote><b>各基金前十大重仓股的净利息收入</b></blockquote></p><p> Chart 10 to Chart 13 represents the net interest income of ARK ETF's top 10 holdings. The higher the net interest income, the better. This is because higher interest rates will boost both interest income and interest expense.</p><p><blockquote>图10至图13代表了ARK ETF前10大持股的净利息收入。净利息收入越高越好。这是因为较高的利率将增加利息收入和利息支出。</blockquote></p><p> ARKX's top 10 holdings have the worse net interest income, where only 1 of the 10 companies enjoys positive net interest income. We found that this is due to higher exposure to aviation-related companies. For instance, Boeing (BA) has taken a $13.8bil loan to help deal with cash burns due to the pandemic.</p><p><blockquote>ARKX前10大持股的净利息收入最差，10家公司中只有1家净利息收入为正。我们发现，这是由于对航空相关公司的敞口较高。例如，波音(BA)已获得138亿美元贷款，以帮助应对疫情造成的现金消耗。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Nevertheless, ARKX's holdings are likely to suffer more interest expense (and decreased earnings) as the Fed starts selling corporate bonds and raise interest rates. If interest rates become too burdensome, these holdings might even face higher liquidity risks than other ARK ETFs' holdings. Therefore, ARKX is not as resilient to rising interest rates compared to other ARK ETFs.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，随着美联储开始出售公司债券并提高利率，ARKX的持股可能会遭受更多的利息支出（以及收益下降）。如果利率变得过于沉重，这些持有的股票甚至可能比其他ARK ETF持有的股票面临更高的流动性风险。因此，与其他ARK ETF相比，ARKX对利率上升的弹性并不那么强。</blockquote></p><p> Chart 10: Net Interest Income of ARKX's top 10 holdings</p><p><blockquote>图表10：ARKX前10大持股净利息收入</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aae97de917f8f8453ddc2122842575c3\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"538\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Chart 11: Net Interest Income of ARKK/ARKW's top 10 holdings</p><p><blockquote>图表11：ARKK/ARKW前十大持仓股的净利息收入</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/91020c77a6f72b41e4e2f751d792cc9b\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"555\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Chart 12: Net Interest Income of ARKQ's top 10 holdings</p><p><blockquote>图表12：ARKQ前十大持股的净利息收入</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a3127f54419a06a34266c0ff575b051e\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"561\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Chart 13: Net Interest Income of ARKF's top 10 holdings</p><p><blockquote>图表13：ARKF前10大持股的净利息收入</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4078bb131d967717ec7b7b8abe6c2fc7\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"563\"><span>Sources: YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Operating cash flow of each fund's top 10 holdings</b></p><p><blockquote><b>各基金前十大重仓股经营现金流</b></blockquote></p><p> In terms of cash flow from operating activities, the top 10 holdings of ARK ETFs have similar performance, except Boeing. This means that ARK ETFs' top 10 holdings can generate cash flow from its core business. Hence it is less likely that the companies will require debt for operation when interest rates rise. No standout winner in this category.</p><p><blockquote>在经营活动现金流方面，ARK ETF的前10大重仓股表现类似，除了波音。这意味着ARK ETF的前10大持股可以从其核心业务中产生现金流。因此，当利率上升时，这些公司不太可能需要债务来运营。这个类别中没有突出的赢家。</blockquote></p><p> Chart 14: Operating cash flow of ARKX's top 10 holdings</p><p><blockquote>图表14：ARKX前10大持股的经营性现金流</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/97cfa80d6884328c6b12398286388af1\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"538\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Chart 15: Operating cash flow of ARKK/ARKW's top 10 holdings</p><p><blockquote>图表15：ARKK/ARKW前十大持仓股经营性现金流</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/865551e5dfc447955b74b3a08dddffaf\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"555\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Chart 16: Operating cash flow of ARKQ's top 10 holdings</p><p><blockquote>图表16：ARKQ前十大持股的经营性现金流</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/51cc4f2b3d1d067ae8a19638c12c534b\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"561\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Chart 17: Operating cash flow of ARKF's top 10 holdings</p><p><blockquote>图表17：ARKF前10大持股的经营性现金流</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c6e8f179f43f3be1ad1efc323a038e7d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"564\"><span>Sources: YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Conclusion and final remark</b></p><p><blockquote><b>结论和结束语</b></blockquote></p><p> May's initial jobless claims can be considered as the substantial progress the Fed is referring to. A great valuation will likely follow in the event of the Fed's taper tantrum and rising interest rates. Therefore, it is important to rotate into cash- or value-oriented stock as companies with visible earnings will sustain less devaluation from higher required returns.</p><p><blockquote>5月份的首次申请失业救济人数可以被认为是美联储所指的实质性进展。如果美联储缩减规模和利率上升，估值可能会随之而来。因此，转向现金或价值导向型股票非常重要，因为具有可见收益的公司将因较高的要求回报而承受较少的贬值。</blockquote></p><p> Cathie Wood claimed that ARKX has a lot of value-oriented companies. This is true, as evident from the PS ratio and PE ratio of ARK ETFs' top 10 holdings. Therefore, ARKX is indeed more resilient to devaluation from rising interest rates.</p><p><blockquote>Cathie Wood声称ARKX有很多以价值为导向的公司。这是事实，从ARK ETF前10大持股的市盈率和市盈率中可以明显看出。因此，ARKX确实对利率上升导致的贬值更具弹性。</blockquote></p><p> However, investors should note that ARKX's holdings are more prone to liquidity risks as its holdings are more exposed to aviation-related companies such as Boeing.</p><p><blockquote>然而，投资者应该注意到，ARKX的持股更容易面临流动性风险，因为其持股更多地暴露于波音等航空相关公司。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4433079-arkx-ark-most-resilient-etf-great-valuation-reset\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"ARKX":"ARK Space Exploration & Innovation ETF"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4433079-arkx-ark-most-resilient-etf-great-valuation-reset","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1129306378","content_text":"Summary\n\nInitial jobless claims is an important metric to follow because the Fed will taper and raise interest rates when substantial progress is made towards maximum employment and 2% normalized inflation.\nMay's jobless claim (385,000) came in lower than consensus estimates (393,000), which suggests that substantial progress has been made and a great valuation reset will likely follow.\nOne way to mitigate devaluation during the great reset is to rotate into cash- or value-oriented stocks because companies with visible earnings sustain less devaluation from higher required return.\nThis article found that ARKX is most resilient to devaluation compared to other ARK ETFs because its holdings have the highest margin of safety (lowest PS ratio and PE ratio).\nHowever, investors should note that ARKX has higher liquidity risk when interest rates rise due to higher exposure to aviation and negative net interest income.\n\nPhoto by ra2studio/iStock via Getty Images\nBackground\nUnemployment is a very closely monitored metric because of its significant implication on the stock market. According to Jerome Powell's guidance, the Fed will only consider tapering QE and increasing interest rates after substantial progress towards maximum employment and a normalized 2% inflation rate.\nAnalysts are speculating that the Fed will taper and increase interest rates as soon as this year-end. The initial jobless claims in May may have just validated their prediction. The jobless claim numbers released on Thursday are considered to be substantial progress for 2 reasons. Firstly, it fell below 400,000 for the first time since the Covid-19 pandemic. Secondly, the number (385,000) came lower than the consensus estimate (393,000).\nIf the analysts' predictions are realized, the great valuation that we all fear will very likely follow. In such circumstances, value-oriented stocks with strong and visible earnings will be more resilient than growth stocks.\nCathie Wood ARK ETFs are known to focus on innovation and growth. She said that:\n\n I do believe if rates were to take a sharp turn up, that we would see a valuation reset and our portfolios would be prime candidates for that valuation reset of course.\n\nHowever, at that time, the ARK Space Exploration & Innovation ETF(BATS:ARKX)has not been established yet. Therefore, ARKX may not be one of the prime candidates for a valuation reset. Furthermore, Cathie Wood said that investors could find many value-oriented stocks in ARKX. This should mean that ARKX should be more resilient than the other ARK ETFs.\nTherefore, this article examines how resilient ARKX is compared to the other ARK ETFs during a valuation reset.\nChart 1: Initial Jobless Claims\nSource:CNBC\nWhat is ARKX in the eyes of its creator?\nAccording to Cathie Wood, ARKX is currently mainly connectivity and precision agriculture with autonomous tractors and drones. These applications are powered by a common technology, a constellation of satellites. Other than connectivity and precision agriculture, hypersonic flights are also what ARKX is very interested in, and the involved companies tend to be value stocks.\nTherefore, ARKX's holdings are built around companies involved in those supply chains. ARKX's holdings as of 3rd June 2021 are presented in Table 1.\nTable 1: ARKX's holdings as of 3rd June 2021\nSource:ARK Invest\nHow do we examine a fund's resilience?\nWe're going to examine ARKX's resilience using the following metrics:\n\nDistribution of profitable companies in each fund's top 10 holdings\nDistribution of P/S ratio of each fund's top 10 holdings\nDistribution of P/E ratio of each fund's top 10 holdings\nNet interest income of each fund's top 10 holdings\nOperating cash flow of each fund's top 10 holdings\n\nThese metrics are chosen using the following rationale:\n\nProfitable companies are less prone to valuation reset. Therefore, funds that hold more profitable companies are less prone to valuation reset as well. P/E and P/S ratios are chosen as a measurement of valuation.\nNet interest income shows how much interest expense is incurred by the company. In contrast, companies with positive operating cash flow are less likely to borrow money when the cost of capital is expensive. Free cash flow isn't used because free cash flow can be derived from the sale of assets or financing.\n\nHow resilient is ARKX in a valuation reset compared to other ARK ETFs?\nDistribution of profitable companies in each fund's top 10 holdings\nChart 2 to Chart 5 illustrates the PE ratio of ARK ETFs' top 10 holdings. PE ratios of loss-making companies are not applicable. The distribution of profitable companies in each fund's top 10 holdings is presented in Table 2. We can observe that only 66% of ARKX's top 10 holdings are profitable. This is incomplete as the degree of profitability relative to its valuation is not considered.\nTable 2: Distribution of Profitable Companies\n\n\n\nFunds\nDistribution of Profitable Companies\n\n\nARKX\n66%\n\n\nARKK/ARKW]]\n60%\n\n\nARKQ\n80%\n\n\nARKF\n70%\n\n\n\nSource: Author, YCharts\nDistribution of P/S ratio of each fund's top 10 holdings\nPE ratio reflects a company's degree of profitability relative to its valuation. Our perspective changed when we consider the PE ratio of the funds' top 10 holdings. We observed that the PE ratio of ARKX's top 10 holdings is significantly lower than other ARK ETFs' top 10 holdings. This implies that ARKX's holdings have the highest margin of safety, such that ARKX is the least prone to sharp decline compared to other ARK ETFs.\nChart 2: PE ratio of ARKX's top 10 holdings\nData by YCharts\nChart 3: PE ratio of ARKK/ARKW's top 10 holdings\nData by YCharts\nChart 4: PE ratio of ARKQ's top 10 holdings\n\nChart 5: PE ratio of ARKF's top 10 holdings\nSources: YCharts\nDistribution of P/S ratio of each fund's top 10 holdings\nSince the loss-making companies from ARK ETFs' top 10 holdings are not considered when analyzing PE ratio, we examine their PS ratio for a more robust comparison. Chart 6 to Chart 9 represents the PS ratio of ARK ETF's top 10 holdings.\nThe conclusion from the PS ratio comparison aligns with the PE ratio comparison. ARKX's top 10 holdings have the lowest PS ratio than the top 10 holdings of other ARK ETFs. This also implies that ARKX has the highest margin of safety compared to other ARK ETFs.\nChart 6: PS ratio of ARKX's top 10 holdings\nData by YCharts\nChart 7: PS ratio of ARKK/ARKW's top 10 holdings\nData by YCharts\nChart 8: PS ratio of ARKQ's top 10 holdings\n\nChart 9: PS ratio of ARKF's top 10 holdings\nSources: YCharts\nNet interest income of each fund's top 10 holdings\nChart 10 to Chart 13 represents the net interest income of ARK ETF's top 10 holdings. The higher the net interest income, the better. This is because higher interest rates will boost both interest income and interest expense.\nARKX's top 10 holdings have the worse net interest income, where only 1 of the 10 companies enjoys positive net interest income. We found that this is due to higher exposure to aviation-related companies. For instance, Boeing (BA) has taken a $13.8bil loan to help deal with cash burns due to the pandemic.\nNevertheless, ARKX's holdings are likely to suffer more interest expense (and decreased earnings) as the Fed starts selling corporate bonds and raise interest rates. If interest rates become too burdensome, these holdings might even face higher liquidity risks than other ARK ETFs' holdings. Therefore, ARKX is not as resilient to rising interest rates compared to other ARK ETFs.\nChart 10: Net Interest Income of ARKX's top 10 holdings\nData by YCharts\nChart 11: Net Interest Income of ARKK/ARKW's top 10 holdings\nData by YCharts\nChart 12: Net Interest Income of ARKQ's top 10 holdings\n\nChart 13: Net Interest Income of ARKF's top 10 holdings\nSources: YCharts\nOperating cash flow of each fund's top 10 holdings\nIn terms of cash flow from operating activities, the top 10 holdings of ARK ETFs have similar performance, except Boeing. This means that ARK ETFs' top 10 holdings can generate cash flow from its core business. Hence it is less likely that the companies will require debt for operation when interest rates rise. No standout winner in this category.\nChart 14: Operating cash flow of ARKX's top 10 holdings\nData by YCharts\nChart 15: Operating cash flow of ARKK/ARKW's top 10 holdings\nData by YCharts\nChart 16: Operating cash flow of ARKQ's top 10 holdings\n\nChart 17: Operating cash flow of ARKF's top 10 holdings\nSources: YCharts\nConclusion and final remark\nMay's initial jobless claims can be considered as the substantial progress the Fed is referring to. A great valuation will likely follow in the event of the Fed's taper tantrum and rising interest rates. Therefore, it is important to rotate into cash- or value-oriented stock as companies with visible earnings will sustain less devaluation from higher required returns.\nCathie Wood claimed that ARKX has a lot of value-oriented companies. This is true, as evident from the PS ratio and PE ratio of ARK ETFs' top 10 holdings. Therefore, ARKX is indeed more resilient to devaluation from rising interest rates.\nHowever, investors should note that ARKX's holdings are more prone to liquidity risks as its holdings are more exposed to aviation-related companies such as Boeing.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"ARKX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":943,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":11,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/116521025"}
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