barracuda
2021-06-04
Interesting
ARKX Will Be ARK's Most Resilient ETF During The Coming Great Valuation Reset<blockquote>在即将到来的重大估值重置期间，ARKX 将成为 ARK 最具弹性的 ETF</blockquote>
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According to Jerome Powell's guidance, the Fed will only consider tapering QE and increasing interest rates after substantial progress towards maximum employment and a normalized 2% inflation rate.</p><p><blockquote>失业率是一个受到密切监控的指标，因为它对股票市场有着重大影响。根据杰罗姆·鲍威尔的指导，美联储只有在实现最大就业和2%通胀率正常化取得实质性进展后，才会考虑缩减量化宽松和提高利率。</blockquote></p><p> Analysts are speculating that the Fed will taper and increase interest rates as soon as this year-end. The initial jobless claims in May may have just validated their prediction. The jobless claim numbers released on Thursday are considered to be substantial progress for 2 reasons. Firstly, it fell below 400,000 for the first time since the Covid-19 pandemic. Secondly, the number (385,000) came lower than the consensus estimate (393,000).</p><p><blockquote>分析师猜测，美联储最快将在今年年底缩减和加息规模。5月份的首次申请失业救济人数可能刚刚证实了他们的预测。周四公布的失业救济人数被认为是实质性进展，原因有二。首先，自 Covid-19 大流行以来首次跌破 40 万。其次，这一数字（385,000）低于普遍估计（393,000）。</blockquote></p><p> If the analysts' predictions are realized, the great valuation that we all fear will very likely follow. In such circumstances, value-oriented stocks with strong and visible earnings will be more resilient than growth stocks.</p><p><blockquote>如果分析师的预测成真，我们都担心的大估值很可能会随之而来。在这种情况下，盈利强劲且可见的价值导向型股票将比成长型股票更具弹性。</blockquote></p><p> Cathie Wood ARK ETFs are known to focus on innovation and growth. She said that:</p><p><blockquote>众所周知，Cathie Wood ARK ETF 专注于创新和增长。她说：</blockquote></p><p> I do believe if rates were to take a sharp turn up, that we would see a valuation reset and our portfolios would be prime candidates for that valuation reset of course. However, at that time, the ARK Space Exploration & Innovation ETF(BATS:ARKX)has not been established yet. Therefore, ARKX may not be one of the prime candidates for a valuation reset. Furthermore, Cathie Wood said that investors could find many value-oriented stocks in ARKX. This should mean that ARKX should be more resilient than the other ARK ETFs.</p><p><blockquote>我确实相信，如果利率大幅上升，我们将看到估值重置，而我们的投资组合当然将是估值重置的主要候选者。然而，当时方舟太空探索与创新ETF（BATS:ARKX）尚未成立。因此，ARKX 可能不是估值重置的主要候选者之一。此外，Cathie Wood表示，投资者可以在ARKX中找到许多价值导向的股票。这意味着 ARKX 应该比其他 ARK ETF 更具弹性。</blockquote></p><p> Therefore, this article examines how resilient ARKX is compared to the other ARK ETFs during a valuation reset.</p><p><blockquote>因此，本文研究了 ARKX 在估值重置期间与其他 ARK ETF 相比的弹性。</blockquote></p><p> Chart 1: Initial Jobless Claims</p><p><blockquote>图表 1：首次申请失业救济人数</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a0522f63354ea6311fae61781d375935\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"390\"><span>Source:CNBC</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：CNBC</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>What is ARKX in the eyes of its creator?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>在它的创造者眼中，ARKX是什么？</b></blockquote></p><p> According to Cathie Wood, ARKX is currently mainly connectivity and precision agriculture with autonomous tractors and drones. These applications are powered by a common technology, a constellation of satellites. Other than connectivity and precision agriculture, hypersonic flights are also what ARKX is very interested in, and the involved companies tend to be value stocks.</p><p><blockquote>据 Cathie Wood 介绍，ARKX 目前主要从事连接和精准农业，配备自动驾驶拖拉机和无人机。这些应用是由一种共同的技术——卫星星座——驱动的。除了互联互通和精准农业，高超音速飞行也是ARKX非常感兴趣的，涉及的公司往往是价值股。</blockquote></p><p> Therefore, ARKX's holdings are built around companies involved in those supply chains. ARKX's holdings as of 3rd June 2021 are presented in Table 1.</p><p><blockquote>因此，ARKX 的持股是围绕参与这些供应链的公司建立的。ARKX截至2021年6月3日的持股情况如表1所示。</blockquote></p><p> Table 1: ARKX's holdings as of 3rd June 2021</p><p><blockquote>表 1:ARKX 截至 2021 年 6 月 3 日的持股情况</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e1ff2f8e3046c7211d1b9738878e7c64\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"495\"><span>Source:ARK Invest</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：方舟投资</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>How do we examine a fund's resilience?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>我们如何检查基金的弹性？</b></blockquote></p><p> We're going to examine ARKX's resilience using the following metrics:</p><p><blockquote>我们将使用以下指标来检查 ARKX 的弹性：</blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>Distribution of profitable companies in each fund's top 10 holdings</li> <li>Distribution of P/S ratio of each fund's top 10 holdings</li> <li>Distribution of P/E ratio of each fund's top 10 holdings</li> <li>Net interest income of each fund's top 10 holdings</li> <li>Operating cash flow of each fund's top 10 holdings</li> </ul> These metrics are chosen using the following rationale:</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>各基金前10大重仓股中盈利公司分布情况</li><li>各基金前10大重仓股市盈率分布</li><li>各基金前10大重仓股市盈率分布</li><li>各基金前10大持仓的净利息收入</li><li>各基金前10大持仓的经营现金流量</li></ul>这些指标的选择依据如下：</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <ul> <li>Profitable companies are less prone to valuation reset. Therefore, funds that hold more profitable companies are less prone to valuation reset as well. P/E and P/S ratios are chosen as a measurement of valuation.</li> <li>Net interest income shows how much interest expense is incurred by the company. In contrast, companies with positive operating cash flow are less likely to borrow money when the cost of capital is expensive. Free cash flow isn't used because free cash flow can be derived from the sale of assets or financing.</li> </ul> <b>How resilient is ARKX in a valuation reset compared to other ARK ETFs?</b></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>盈利的公司不太可能进行估值重置。因此，持有更多盈利公司的基金也不太可能进行估值重置。市盈率和市盈率被选为估值的衡量标准。</li><li>净利息收入显示公司产生了多少利息支出。相比之下，当资本成本昂贵时，经营现金流为正的公司不太可能借钱。不使用自由现金流，因为自由现金流可以从资产出售或融资中获得。</li></ul><b>与其他 ARK ETF 相比，ARKX 在估值重置方面的弹性如何？</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>Distribution of profitable companies in each fund's top 10 holdings</b></p><p><blockquote><b>各基金前10大重仓股中盈利公司分布情况</b></blockquote></p><p> Chart 2 to Chart 5 illustrates the PE ratio of ARK ETFs' top 10 holdings. PE ratios of loss-making companies are not applicable. The distribution of profitable companies in each fund's top 10 holdings is presented in Table 2. We can observe that only 66% of ARKX's top 10 holdings are profitable. This is incomplete as the degree of profitability relative to its valuation is not considered.</p><p><blockquote>图 2 至图 5 显示了 ARK ETF 前 10 只持股的市盈率。亏损公司的市盈率不适用。各基金前10大重仓股中盈利公司分布如表2所示。我们可以观察到，ARKX 前 10 名持股中只有 66% 是盈利的。这是不完整的，因为没有考虑相对于其估值的盈利程度。</blockquote></p><p> Table 2: Distribution of Profitable Companies</p><p><blockquote>表2：盈利公司分布</blockquote></p><p> <table> <tbody> <tr> <td>Funds</td> <td>Distribution of Profitable Companies</td> </tr> <tr> <td>ARKX</td> <td>66%</td> </tr> <tr> <td>ARKK/ARKW]]</td> <td>60%</td> </tr> <tr> <td>ARKQ</td> <td>80%</td> </tr> <tr> <td>ARKF</td> <td>70%</td> </tr> </tbody> </table> Source: Author, YCharts</p><p><blockquote><table><tbody><tr><td>资金</td><td>盈利公司分布</td></tr><tr><td>方舟</td><td>66%</td></tr><tr><td>方舟/方舟]]</td><td>60%</td></tr><tr><td>阿克克</td><td>80%</td></tr><tr><td>阿克夫</td><td>70%</td></tr></tbody></table>资料来源：作者，YCharts</blockquote></p><p> <b>Distribution of P/S ratio of each fund's top 10 holdings</b></p><p><blockquote><b>各基金前10大重仓股市盈率分布</b></blockquote></p><p> PE ratio reflects a company's degree of profitability relative to its valuation. Our perspective changed when we consider the PE ratio of the funds' top 10 holdings. We observed that the PE ratio of ARKX's top 10 holdings is significantly lower than other ARK ETFs' top 10 holdings. This implies that ARKX's holdings have the highest margin of safety, such that ARKX is the least prone to sharp decline compared to other ARK ETFs.</p><p><blockquote>市盈率反映了公司相对于其估值的盈利程度。当我们考虑基金前 10 只持股的市盈率时，我们的观点发生了变化。我们观察到，ARKX 前 10 名持股的市盈率明显低于其他 ARK ETF 前 10 名持股。这意味着 ARKX 的持有量具有最高的安全边际，因此与其他 ARK ETF 相比，ARKX 最不容易出现大幅下跌。</blockquote></p><p> Chart 2: PE ratio of ARKX's top 10 holdings</p><p><blockquote>图表 2：ARKX 前 10 大持股市盈率</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9d8c0516a04a4a867dc54427ef34c0d6\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"538\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据由YCharts提供</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Chart 3: PE ratio of ARKK/ARKW's top 10 holdings</p><p><blockquote>图表3：ARKK/ARKW前10大持股市盈率</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/25a88c68635ccc1bf173eab00cc98edf\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"555\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据由YCharts提供</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Chart 4: PE ratio of ARKQ's top 10 holdings</p><p><blockquote>图表 4：ARKQ 前 10 大持股市盈率</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/754341910a51fce58308754d87316cba\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"563\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Chart 5: PE ratio of ARKF's top 10 holdings</p><p><blockquote>图5：ARKF前10大持股市盈率</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ce029b11165323683df57983ffce549d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"564\"><span>Sources: YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Distribution of P/S ratio of each fund's top 10 holdings</b></p><p><blockquote><b>各基金前10大重仓股市盈率分布</b></blockquote></p><p> Since the loss-making companies from ARK ETFs' top 10 holdings are not considered when analyzing PE ratio, we examine their PS ratio for a more robust comparison. Chart 6 to Chart 9 represents the PS ratio of ARK ETF's top 10 holdings.</p><p><blockquote>由于在分析市盈率时没有考虑 ARK ETF 前 10 名持股中的亏损公司，因此我们检查了它们的市盈率，以进行更可靠的比较。图 6 至图 9 代表 ARK ETF 前 10 只持股的市盈率。</blockquote></p><p> The conclusion from the PS ratio comparison aligns with the PE ratio comparison. ARKX's top 10 holdings have the lowest PS ratio than the top 10 holdings of other ARK ETFs. This also implies that ARKX has the highest margin of safety compared to other ARK ETFs.</p><p><blockquote>PS比率比较的结论与PE比率比较一致。与其他 ARK ETF 的前 10 名持股相比，ARKX 的前 10 名持股的市盈率最低。这也意味着与其他 ARK ETF 相比，ARKX 具有最高的安全边际。</blockquote></p><p> Chart 6: PS ratio of ARKX's top 10 holdings</p><p><blockquote>图表 6：ARKX 前 10 名持股的 PS 比率</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/52762a7f513a9d130f9afd83ee2f5318\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"538\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据由YCharts提供</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Chart 7: PS ratio of ARKK/ARKW's top 10 holdings</p><p><blockquote>图表 7：ARKK/ARKW 前 10 名持股的市盈率</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ddb55b54a5fe68eec46705578de503ef\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"555\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据由YCharts提供</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Chart 8: PS ratio of ARKQ's top 10 holdings</p><p><blockquote>图表 8：ARKQ 前 10 名持股的 PS 比率</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f640f1c7f7ade55aa406911da9db2374\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"556\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Chart 9: PS ratio of ARKF's top 10 holdings</p><p><blockquote>图表 9：ARKF 前 10 名持股的 PS 比率</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6451ac91204829c35c47989cb4f6a696\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"561\"><span>Sources: YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Net interest income of each fund's top 10 holdings</b></p><p><blockquote><b>各基金前10大持仓的净利息收入</b></blockquote></p><p> Chart 10 to Chart 13 represents the net interest income of ARK ETF's top 10 holdings. The higher the net interest income, the better. This is because higher interest rates will boost both interest income and interest expense.</p><p><blockquote>图 10 至图 13 代表 ARK ETF 前 10 只持股的净利息收入。净利息收入越高越好。这是因为较高的利率将增加利息收入和利息支出。</blockquote></p><p> ARKX's top 10 holdings have the worse net interest income, where only 1 of the 10 companies enjoys positive net interest income. We found that this is due to higher exposure to aviation-related companies. For instance, Boeing (BA) has taken a $13.8bil loan to help deal with cash burns due to the pandemic.</p><p><blockquote>ARKX 前 10 名持股公司的净利息收入最差，10 家公司中只有 1 家公司的净利息收入为正。我们发现这是由于对航空相关公司的敞口较高所致。例如，波音公司 (BA) 已获得 138 亿美元贷款，以帮助应对疫情造成的现金消耗。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Nevertheless, ARKX's holdings are likely to suffer more interest expense (and decreased earnings) as the Fed starts selling corporate bonds and raise interest rates. If interest rates become too burdensome, these holdings might even face higher liquidity risks than other ARK ETFs' holdings. Therefore, ARKX is not as resilient to rising interest rates compared to other ARK ETFs.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，随着美联储开始出售公司债券并提高利率，ARKX 持有的股票可能会遭受更多利息支出（以及收益下降）。如果利率变得过于沉重，这些持有的资产甚至可能面临比其他 ARK ETF 持有的资产更高的流动性风险。因此，与其他 ARK ETF 相比，ARKX 对利率上升的弹性不如其他 ARK ETF。</blockquote></p><p> Chart 10: Net Interest Income of ARKX's top 10 holdings</p><p><blockquote>图表 10：ARKX 前 10 名持股的净利息收入</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aae97de917f8f8453ddc2122842575c3\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"538\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据由YCharts提供</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Chart 11: Net Interest Income of ARKK/ARKW's top 10 holdings</p><p><blockquote>图表 11：ARKK/ARKW 十大持股净利息收入</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/91020c77a6f72b41e4e2f751d792cc9b\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"555\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据由YCharts提供</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Chart 12: Net Interest Income of ARKQ's top 10 holdings</p><p><blockquote>图表 12：ARKQ 前 10 名持股的净利息收入</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a3127f54419a06a34266c0ff575b051e\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"561\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Chart 13: Net Interest Income of ARKF's top 10 holdings</p><p><blockquote>图表 13：ARKF 前 10 名持股的净利息收入</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4078bb131d967717ec7b7b8abe6c2fc7\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"563\"><span>Sources: YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Operating cash flow of each fund's top 10 holdings</b></p><p><blockquote><b>各基金前10大持仓的经营现金流量</b></blockquote></p><p> In terms of cash flow from operating activities, the top 10 holdings of ARK ETFs have similar performance, except Boeing. This means that ARK ETFs' top 10 holdings can generate cash flow from its core business. Hence it is less likely that the companies will require debt for operation when interest rates rise. No standout winner in this category.</p><p><blockquote>在经营活动现金流方面，除波音外，前10大持仓方舟ETF的表现相似。这意味着方舟ETF的前10大持股可以从其核心业务中产生现金流。因此，当利率上升时，公司不太可能需要债务来运营。这个类别没有突出的赢家。</blockquote></p><p> Chart 14: Operating cash flow of ARKX's top 10 holdings</p><p><blockquote>图表 14：ARKX 前 10 名持股的经营现金流</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/97cfa80d6884328c6b12398286388af1\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"538\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据由YCharts提供</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Chart 15: Operating cash flow of ARKK/ARKW's top 10 holdings</p><p><blockquote>图表 15：ARKK/ARKW 前 10 名持股的经营现金流</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/865551e5dfc447955b74b3a08dddffaf\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"555\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据由YCharts提供</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Chart 16: Operating cash flow of ARKQ's top 10 holdings</p><p><blockquote>图表 16：ARKQ 十大持股的经营现金流</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/51cc4f2b3d1d067ae8a19638c12c534b\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"561\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Chart 17: Operating cash flow of ARKF's top 10 holdings</p><p><blockquote>图表 17：ARKF 十大持股的经营现金流</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c6e8f179f43f3be1ad1efc323a038e7d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"564\"><span>Sources: YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Conclusion and final remark</b></p><p><blockquote><b>结论和结束语</b></blockquote></p><p> May's initial jobless claims can be considered as the substantial progress the Fed is referring to. A great valuation will likely follow in the event of the Fed's taper tantrum and rising interest rates. Therefore, it is important to rotate into cash- or value-oriented stock as companies with visible earnings will sustain less devaluation from higher required returns.</p><p><blockquote>五月的首次申请失业救济人数可以被视为美联储所指的实质性进展。如果美联储出现缩减规模和加息，估值可能会很高。因此，转向现金或价值导向型股票非常重要，因为具有可见收益的公司将因较高的所需回报而减少贬值。</blockquote></p><p> Cathie Wood claimed that ARKX has a lot of value-oriented companies. This is true, as evident from the PS ratio and PE ratio of ARK ETFs' top 10 holdings. Therefore, ARKX is indeed more resilient to devaluation from rising interest rates.</p><p><blockquote>Cathie Wood 声称 ARKX 有很多以价值为导向的公司。这是事实，从 ARK ETF 前 10 只持股的市盈率和市盈率就可以看出这一点。因此，ARKX 确实更能抵御利率上升带来的贬值。</blockquote></p><p> However, investors should note that ARKX's holdings are more prone to liquidity risks as its holdings are more exposed to aviation-related companies such as Boeing.</p><p><blockquote>不过，投资者应该注意，ARKX的持股更容易面临流动性风险，因为其持股更多的是波音等航空相关公司。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>ARKX Will Be ARK's Most Resilient ETF During The Coming Great Valuation Reset<blockquote>在即将到来的重大估值重置期间，ARKX 将成为 ARK 最具弹性的 ETF</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nARKX Will Be ARK's Most Resilient ETF During The Coming Great Valuation Reset<blockquote>在即将到来的重大估值重置期间，ARKX 将成为 ARK 最具弹性的 ETF</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-04 19:47</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>Initial jobless claims is an important metric to follow because the Fed will taper and raise interest rates when substantial progress is made towards maximum employment and 2% normalized inflation.</li> <li>May's jobless claim (385,000) came in lower than consensus estimates (393,000), which suggests that substantial progress has been made and a great valuation reset will likely follow.</li> <li>One way to mitigate devaluation during the great reset is to rotate into cash- or value-oriented stocks because companies with visible earnings sustain less devaluation from higher required return.</li> <li>This article found that ARKX is most resilient to devaluation compared to other ARK ETFs because its holdings have the highest margin of safety (lowest PS ratio and PE ratio).</li> <li>However, investors should note that ARKX has higher liquidity risk when interest rates rise due to higher exposure to aviation and negative net interest income.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fe701ac0b2ef85e4c0d697823b9c964a\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"461\"><span>Photo by ra2studio/iStock via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>首次申请失业救济人数是一个重要的指标，因为当在实现最大就业和 2% 正常化通胀方面取得实质性进展时，美联储将缩减利率并提高利率。</li><li>5 月份申请失业救济人数（385,000 人）低于市场普遍预期（393,000 人），这表明已经取得了实质性进展，随后可能会进行重大估值调整。</li><li>在大重置期间减轻贬值的一种方法是转向现金或价值导向型股票，因为具有可见收益的公司由于所需回报较高，贬值幅度较小。</li><li>本文发现，与其他 ARK ETF 相比，ARKX 最能抵御贬值，因为其持有的资产具有最高的安全边际（最低的 PS 比率和 PE 比率）。</li><li>然而，投资者应注意，由于航空风险较高和净利息收入为负，当利率上升时，ARKX 具有较高的流动性风险。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>照片由 ra2studio/iStock 提供，来自 Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Background</b></p><p><blockquote><b>背景</b></blockquote></p><p> Unemployment is a very closely monitored metric because of its significant implication on the stock market. According to Jerome Powell's guidance, the Fed will only consider tapering QE and increasing interest rates after substantial progress towards maximum employment and a normalized 2% inflation rate.</p><p><blockquote>失业率是一个受到密切监控的指标，因为它对股票市场有着重大影响。根据杰罗姆·鲍威尔的指导，美联储只有在实现最大就业和2%通胀率正常化取得实质性进展后，才会考虑缩减量化宽松和提高利率。</blockquote></p><p> Analysts are speculating that the Fed will taper and increase interest rates as soon as this year-end. The initial jobless claims in May may have just validated their prediction. The jobless claim numbers released on Thursday are considered to be substantial progress for 2 reasons. Firstly, it fell below 400,000 for the first time since the Covid-19 pandemic. Secondly, the number (385,000) came lower than the consensus estimate (393,000).</p><p><blockquote>分析师猜测，美联储最快将在今年年底缩减和加息规模。5月份的首次申请失业救济人数可能刚刚证实了他们的预测。周四公布的失业救济人数被认为是实质性进展，原因有二。首先，自 Covid-19 大流行以来首次跌破 40 万。其次，这一数字（385,000）低于普遍估计（393,000）。</blockquote></p><p> If the analysts' predictions are realized, the great valuation that we all fear will very likely follow. In such circumstances, value-oriented stocks with strong and visible earnings will be more resilient than growth stocks.</p><p><blockquote>如果分析师的预测成真，我们都担心的大估值很可能会随之而来。在这种情况下，盈利强劲且可见的价值导向型股票将比成长型股票更具弹性。</blockquote></p><p> Cathie Wood ARK ETFs are known to focus on innovation and growth. She said that:</p><p><blockquote>众所周知，Cathie Wood ARK ETF 专注于创新和增长。她说：</blockquote></p><p> I do believe if rates were to take a sharp turn up, that we would see a valuation reset and our portfolios would be prime candidates for that valuation reset of course. However, at that time, the ARK Space Exploration & Innovation ETF(BATS:ARKX)has not been established yet. Therefore, ARKX may not be one of the prime candidates for a valuation reset. Furthermore, Cathie Wood said that investors could find many value-oriented stocks in ARKX. This should mean that ARKX should be more resilient than the other ARK ETFs.</p><p><blockquote>我确实相信，如果利率大幅上升，我们将看到估值重置，而我们的投资组合当然将是估值重置的主要候选者。然而，当时方舟太空探索与创新ETF（BATS:ARKX）尚未成立。因此，ARKX 可能不是估值重置的主要候选者之一。此外，Cathie Wood表示，投资者可以在ARKX中找到许多价值导向的股票。这意味着 ARKX 应该比其他 ARK ETF 更具弹性。</blockquote></p><p> Therefore, this article examines how resilient ARKX is compared to the other ARK ETFs during a valuation reset.</p><p><blockquote>因此，本文研究了 ARKX 在估值重置期间与其他 ARK ETF 相比的弹性。</blockquote></p><p> Chart 1: Initial Jobless Claims</p><p><blockquote>图表 1：首次申请失业救济人数</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a0522f63354ea6311fae61781d375935\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"390\"><span>Source:CNBC</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：CNBC</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>What is ARKX in the eyes of its creator?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>在它的创造者眼中，ARKX是什么？</b></blockquote></p><p> According to Cathie Wood, ARKX is currently mainly connectivity and precision agriculture with autonomous tractors and drones. These applications are powered by a common technology, a constellation of satellites. Other than connectivity and precision agriculture, hypersonic flights are also what ARKX is very interested in, and the involved companies tend to be value stocks.</p><p><blockquote>据 Cathie Wood 介绍，ARKX 目前主要从事连接和精准农业，配备自动驾驶拖拉机和无人机。这些应用是由一种共同的技术——卫星星座——驱动的。除了互联互通和精准农业，高超音速飞行也是ARKX非常感兴趣的，涉及的公司往往是价值股。</blockquote></p><p> Therefore, ARKX's holdings are built around companies involved in those supply chains. ARKX's holdings as of 3rd June 2021 are presented in Table 1.</p><p><blockquote>因此，ARKX 的持股是围绕参与这些供应链的公司建立的。ARKX截至2021年6月3日的持股情况如表1所示。</blockquote></p><p> Table 1: ARKX's holdings as of 3rd June 2021</p><p><blockquote>表 1:ARKX 截至 2021 年 6 月 3 日的持股情况</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e1ff2f8e3046c7211d1b9738878e7c64\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"495\"><span>Source:ARK Invest</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：方舟投资</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>How do we examine a fund's resilience?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>我们如何检查基金的弹性？</b></blockquote></p><p> We're going to examine ARKX's resilience using the following metrics:</p><p><blockquote>我们将使用以下指标来检查 ARKX 的弹性：</blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>Distribution of profitable companies in each fund's top 10 holdings</li> <li>Distribution of P/S ratio of each fund's top 10 holdings</li> <li>Distribution of P/E ratio of each fund's top 10 holdings</li> <li>Net interest income of each fund's top 10 holdings</li> <li>Operating cash flow of each fund's top 10 holdings</li> </ul> These metrics are chosen using the following rationale:</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>各基金前10大重仓股中盈利公司分布情况</li><li>各基金前10大重仓股市盈率分布</li><li>各基金前10大重仓股市盈率分布</li><li>各基金前10大持仓的净利息收入</li><li>各基金前10大持仓的经营现金流量</li></ul>这些指标的选择依据如下：</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <ul> <li>Profitable companies are less prone to valuation reset. Therefore, funds that hold more profitable companies are less prone to valuation reset as well. P/E and P/S ratios are chosen as a measurement of valuation.</li> <li>Net interest income shows how much interest expense is incurred by the company. In contrast, companies with positive operating cash flow are less likely to borrow money when the cost of capital is expensive. Free cash flow isn't used because free cash flow can be derived from the sale of assets or financing.</li> </ul> <b>How resilient is ARKX in a valuation reset compared to other ARK ETFs?</b></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>盈利的公司不太可能进行估值重置。因此，持有更多盈利公司的基金也不太可能进行估值重置。市盈率和市盈率被选为估值的衡量标准。</li><li>净利息收入显示公司产生了多少利息支出。相比之下，当资本成本昂贵时，经营现金流为正的公司不太可能借钱。不使用自由现金流，因为自由现金流可以从资产出售或融资中获得。</li></ul><b>与其他 ARK ETF 相比，ARKX 在估值重置方面的弹性如何？</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>Distribution of profitable companies in each fund's top 10 holdings</b></p><p><blockquote><b>各基金前10大重仓股中盈利公司分布情况</b></blockquote></p><p> Chart 2 to Chart 5 illustrates the PE ratio of ARK ETFs' top 10 holdings. PE ratios of loss-making companies are not applicable. The distribution of profitable companies in each fund's top 10 holdings is presented in Table 2. We can observe that only 66% of ARKX's top 10 holdings are profitable. This is incomplete as the degree of profitability relative to its valuation is not considered.</p><p><blockquote>图 2 至图 5 显示了 ARK ETF 前 10 只持股的市盈率。亏损公司的市盈率不适用。各基金前10大重仓股中盈利公司分布如表2所示。我们可以观察到，ARKX 前 10 名持股中只有 66% 是盈利的。这是不完整的，因为没有考虑相对于其估值的盈利程度。</blockquote></p><p> Table 2: Distribution of Profitable Companies</p><p><blockquote>表2：盈利公司分布</blockquote></p><p> <table> <tbody> <tr> <td>Funds</td> <td>Distribution of Profitable Companies</td> </tr> <tr> <td>ARKX</td> <td>66%</td> </tr> <tr> <td>ARKK/ARKW]]</td> <td>60%</td> </tr> <tr> <td>ARKQ</td> <td>80%</td> </tr> <tr> <td>ARKF</td> <td>70%</td> </tr> </tbody> </table> Source: Author, YCharts</p><p><blockquote><table><tbody><tr><td>资金</td><td>盈利公司分布</td></tr><tr><td>方舟</td><td>66%</td></tr><tr><td>方舟/方舟]]</td><td>60%</td></tr><tr><td>阿克克</td><td>80%</td></tr><tr><td>阿克夫</td><td>70%</td></tr></tbody></table>资料来源：作者，YCharts</blockquote></p><p> <b>Distribution of P/S ratio of each fund's top 10 holdings</b></p><p><blockquote><b>各基金前10大重仓股市盈率分布</b></blockquote></p><p> PE ratio reflects a company's degree of profitability relative to its valuation. Our perspective changed when we consider the PE ratio of the funds' top 10 holdings. We observed that the PE ratio of ARKX's top 10 holdings is significantly lower than other ARK ETFs' top 10 holdings. This implies that ARKX's holdings have the highest margin of safety, such that ARKX is the least prone to sharp decline compared to other ARK ETFs.</p><p><blockquote>市盈率反映了公司相对于其估值的盈利程度。当我们考虑基金前 10 只持股的市盈率时，我们的观点发生了变化。我们观察到，ARKX 前 10 名持股的市盈率明显低于其他 ARK ETF 前 10 名持股。这意味着 ARKX 的持有量具有最高的安全边际，因此与其他 ARK ETF 相比，ARKX 最不容易出现大幅下跌。</blockquote></p><p> Chart 2: PE ratio of ARKX's top 10 holdings</p><p><blockquote>图表 2：ARKX 前 10 大持股市盈率</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9d8c0516a04a4a867dc54427ef34c0d6\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"538\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据由YCharts提供</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Chart 3: PE ratio of ARKK/ARKW's top 10 holdings</p><p><blockquote>图表3：ARKK/ARKW前10大持股市盈率</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/25a88c68635ccc1bf173eab00cc98edf\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"555\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据由YCharts提供</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Chart 4: PE ratio of ARKQ's top 10 holdings</p><p><blockquote>图表 4：ARKQ 前 10 大持股市盈率</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/754341910a51fce58308754d87316cba\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"563\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Chart 5: PE ratio of ARKF's top 10 holdings</p><p><blockquote>图5：ARKF前10大持股市盈率</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ce029b11165323683df57983ffce549d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"564\"><span>Sources: YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Distribution of P/S ratio of each fund's top 10 holdings</b></p><p><blockquote><b>各基金前10大重仓股市盈率分布</b></blockquote></p><p> Since the loss-making companies from ARK ETFs' top 10 holdings are not considered when analyzing PE ratio, we examine their PS ratio for a more robust comparison. Chart 6 to Chart 9 represents the PS ratio of ARK ETF's top 10 holdings.</p><p><blockquote>由于在分析市盈率时没有考虑 ARK ETF 前 10 名持股中的亏损公司，因此我们检查了它们的市盈率，以进行更可靠的比较。图 6 至图 9 代表 ARK ETF 前 10 只持股的市盈率。</blockquote></p><p> The conclusion from the PS ratio comparison aligns with the PE ratio comparison. ARKX's top 10 holdings have the lowest PS ratio than the top 10 holdings of other ARK ETFs. This also implies that ARKX has the highest margin of safety compared to other ARK ETFs.</p><p><blockquote>PS比率比较的结论与PE比率比较一致。与其他 ARK ETF 的前 10 名持股相比，ARKX 的前 10 名持股的市盈率最低。这也意味着与其他 ARK ETF 相比，ARKX 具有最高的安全边际。</blockquote></p><p> Chart 6: PS ratio of ARKX's top 10 holdings</p><p><blockquote>图表 6：ARKX 前 10 名持股的 PS 比率</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/52762a7f513a9d130f9afd83ee2f5318\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"538\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据由YCharts提供</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Chart 7: PS ratio of ARKK/ARKW's top 10 holdings</p><p><blockquote>图表 7：ARKK/ARKW 前 10 名持股的市盈率</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ddb55b54a5fe68eec46705578de503ef\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"555\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据由YCharts提供</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Chart 8: PS ratio of ARKQ's top 10 holdings</p><p><blockquote>图表 8：ARKQ 前 10 名持股的 PS 比率</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f640f1c7f7ade55aa406911da9db2374\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"556\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Chart 9: PS ratio of ARKF's top 10 holdings</p><p><blockquote>图表 9：ARKF 前 10 名持股的 PS 比率</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6451ac91204829c35c47989cb4f6a696\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"561\"><span>Sources: YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Net interest income of each fund's top 10 holdings</b></p><p><blockquote><b>各基金前10大持仓的净利息收入</b></blockquote></p><p> Chart 10 to Chart 13 represents the net interest income of ARK ETF's top 10 holdings. The higher the net interest income, the better. This is because higher interest rates will boost both interest income and interest expense.</p><p><blockquote>图 10 至图 13 代表 ARK ETF 前 10 只持股的净利息收入。净利息收入越高越好。这是因为较高的利率将增加利息收入和利息支出。</blockquote></p><p> ARKX's top 10 holdings have the worse net interest income, where only 1 of the 10 companies enjoys positive net interest income. We found that this is due to higher exposure to aviation-related companies. For instance, Boeing (BA) has taken a $13.8bil loan to help deal with cash burns due to the pandemic.</p><p><blockquote>ARKX 前 10 名持股公司的净利息收入最差，10 家公司中只有 1 家公司的净利息收入为正。我们发现这是由于对航空相关公司的敞口较高所致。例如，波音公司 (BA) 已获得 138 亿美元贷款，以帮助应对疫情造成的现金消耗。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Nevertheless, ARKX's holdings are likely to suffer more interest expense (and decreased earnings) as the Fed starts selling corporate bonds and raise interest rates. If interest rates become too burdensome, these holdings might even face higher liquidity risks than other ARK ETFs' holdings. Therefore, ARKX is not as resilient to rising interest rates compared to other ARK ETFs.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，随着美联储开始出售公司债券并提高利率，ARKX 持有的股票可能会遭受更多利息支出（以及收益下降）。如果利率变得过于沉重，这些持有的资产甚至可能面临比其他 ARK ETF 持有的资产更高的流动性风险。因此，与其他 ARK ETF 相比，ARKX 对利率上升的弹性不如其他 ARK ETF。</blockquote></p><p> Chart 10: Net Interest Income of ARKX's top 10 holdings</p><p><blockquote>图表 10：ARKX 前 10 名持股的净利息收入</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aae97de917f8f8453ddc2122842575c3\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"538\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据由YCharts提供</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Chart 11: Net Interest Income of ARKK/ARKW's top 10 holdings</p><p><blockquote>图表 11：ARKK/ARKW 十大持股净利息收入</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/91020c77a6f72b41e4e2f751d792cc9b\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"555\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据由YCharts提供</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Chart 12: Net Interest Income of ARKQ's top 10 holdings</p><p><blockquote>图表 12：ARKQ 前 10 名持股的净利息收入</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a3127f54419a06a34266c0ff575b051e\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"561\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Chart 13: Net Interest Income of ARKF's top 10 holdings</p><p><blockquote>图表 13：ARKF 前 10 名持股的净利息收入</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4078bb131d967717ec7b7b8abe6c2fc7\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"563\"><span>Sources: YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Operating cash flow of each fund's top 10 holdings</b></p><p><blockquote><b>各基金前10大持仓的经营现金流量</b></blockquote></p><p> In terms of cash flow from operating activities, the top 10 holdings of ARK ETFs have similar performance, except Boeing. This means that ARK ETFs' top 10 holdings can generate cash flow from its core business. Hence it is less likely that the companies will require debt for operation when interest rates rise. No standout winner in this category.</p><p><blockquote>在经营活动现金流方面，除波音外，前10大持仓方舟ETF的表现相似。这意味着方舟ETF的前10大持股可以从其核心业务中产生现金流。因此，当利率上升时，公司不太可能需要债务来运营。这个类别没有突出的赢家。</blockquote></p><p> Chart 14: Operating cash flow of ARKX's top 10 holdings</p><p><blockquote>图表 14：ARKX 前 10 名持股的经营现金流</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/97cfa80d6884328c6b12398286388af1\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"538\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据由YCharts提供</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Chart 15: Operating cash flow of ARKK/ARKW's top 10 holdings</p><p><blockquote>图表 15：ARKK/ARKW 前 10 名持股的经营现金流</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/865551e5dfc447955b74b3a08dddffaf\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"555\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据由YCharts提供</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Chart 16: Operating cash flow of ARKQ's top 10 holdings</p><p><blockquote>图表 16：ARKQ 十大持股的经营现金流</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/51cc4f2b3d1d067ae8a19638c12c534b\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"561\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Chart 17: Operating cash flow of ARKF's top 10 holdings</p><p><blockquote>图表 17：ARKF 十大持股的经营现金流</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c6e8f179f43f3be1ad1efc323a038e7d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"564\"><span>Sources: YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Conclusion and final remark</b></p><p><blockquote><b>结论和结束语</b></blockquote></p><p> May's initial jobless claims can be considered as the substantial progress the Fed is referring to. A great valuation will likely follow in the event of the Fed's taper tantrum and rising interest rates. Therefore, it is important to rotate into cash- or value-oriented stock as companies with visible earnings will sustain less devaluation from higher required returns.</p><p><blockquote>五月的首次申请失业救济人数可以被视为美联储所指的实质性进展。如果美联储出现缩减规模和加息，估值可能会很高。因此，转向现金或价值导向型股票非常重要，因为具有可见收益的公司将因较高的所需回报而减少贬值。</blockquote></p><p> Cathie Wood claimed that ARKX has a lot of value-oriented companies. This is true, as evident from the PS ratio and PE ratio of ARK ETFs' top 10 holdings. Therefore, ARKX is indeed more resilient to devaluation from rising interest rates.</p><p><blockquote>Cathie Wood 声称 ARKX 有很多以价值为导向的公司。这是事实，从 ARK ETF 前 10 只持股的市盈率和市盈率就可以看出这一点。因此，ARKX 确实更能抵御利率上升带来的贬值。</blockquote></p><p> However, investors should note that ARKX's holdings are more prone to liquidity risks as its holdings are more exposed to aviation-related companies such as Boeing.</p><p><blockquote>不过，投资者应该注意，ARKX的持股更容易面临流动性风险，因为其持股更多的是波音等航空相关公司。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4433079-arkx-ark-most-resilient-etf-great-valuation-reset\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"ARKX":"ARK Space Exploration & Innovation ETF"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4433079-arkx-ark-most-resilient-etf-great-valuation-reset","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1129306378","content_text":"Summary\n\nInitial jobless claims is an important metric to follow because the Fed will taper and raise interest rates when substantial progress is made towards maximum employment and 2% normalized inflation.\nMay's jobless claim (385,000) came in lower than consensus estimates (393,000), which suggests that substantial progress has been made and a great valuation reset will likely follow.\nOne way to mitigate devaluation during the great reset is to rotate into cash- or value-oriented stocks because companies with visible earnings sustain less devaluation from higher required return.\nThis article found that ARKX is most resilient to devaluation compared to other ARK ETFs because its holdings have the highest margin of safety (lowest PS ratio and PE ratio).\nHowever, investors should note that ARKX has higher liquidity risk when interest rates rise due to higher exposure to aviation and negative net interest income.\n\nPhoto by ra2studio/iStock via Getty Images\nBackground\nUnemployment is a very closely monitored metric because of its significant implication on the stock market. According to Jerome Powell's guidance, the Fed will only consider tapering QE and increasing interest rates after substantial progress towards maximum employment and a normalized 2% inflation rate.\nAnalysts are speculating that the Fed will taper and increase interest rates as soon as this year-end. The initial jobless claims in May may have just validated their prediction. The jobless claim numbers released on Thursday are considered to be substantial progress for 2 reasons. Firstly, it fell below 400,000 for the first time since the Covid-19 pandemic. Secondly, the number (385,000) came lower than the consensus estimate (393,000).\nIf the analysts' predictions are realized, the great valuation that we all fear will very likely follow. In such circumstances, value-oriented stocks with strong and visible earnings will be more resilient than growth stocks.\nCathie Wood ARK ETFs are known to focus on innovation and growth. She said that:\n\n I do believe if rates were to take a sharp turn up, that we would see a valuation reset and our portfolios would be prime candidates for that valuation reset of course.\n\nHowever, at that time, the ARK Space Exploration & Innovation ETF(BATS:ARKX)has not been established yet. Therefore, ARKX may not be one of the prime candidates for a valuation reset. Furthermore, Cathie Wood said that investors could find many value-oriented stocks in ARKX. This should mean that ARKX should be more resilient than the other ARK ETFs.\nTherefore, this article examines how resilient ARKX is compared to the other ARK ETFs during a valuation reset.\nChart 1: Initial Jobless Claims\nSource:CNBC\nWhat is ARKX in the eyes of its creator?\nAccording to Cathie Wood, ARKX is currently mainly connectivity and precision agriculture with autonomous tractors and drones. These applications are powered by a common technology, a constellation of satellites. Other than connectivity and precision agriculture, hypersonic flights are also what ARKX is very interested in, and the involved companies tend to be value stocks.\nTherefore, ARKX's holdings are built around companies involved in those supply chains. ARKX's holdings as of 3rd June 2021 are presented in Table 1.\nTable 1: ARKX's holdings as of 3rd June 2021\nSource:ARK Invest\nHow do we examine a fund's resilience?\nWe're going to examine ARKX's resilience using the following metrics:\n\nDistribution of profitable companies in each fund's top 10 holdings\nDistribution of P/S ratio of each fund's top 10 holdings\nDistribution of P/E ratio of each fund's top 10 holdings\nNet interest income of each fund's top 10 holdings\nOperating cash flow of each fund's top 10 holdings\n\nThese metrics are chosen using the following rationale:\n\nProfitable companies are less prone to valuation reset. Therefore, funds that hold more profitable companies are less prone to valuation reset as well. P/E and P/S ratios are chosen as a measurement of valuation.\nNet interest income shows how much interest expense is incurred by the company. In contrast, companies with positive operating cash flow are less likely to borrow money when the cost of capital is expensive. Free cash flow isn't used because free cash flow can be derived from the sale of assets or financing.\n\nHow resilient is ARKX in a valuation reset compared to other ARK ETFs?\nDistribution of profitable companies in each fund's top 10 holdings\nChart 2 to Chart 5 illustrates the PE ratio of ARK ETFs' top 10 holdings. PE ratios of loss-making companies are not applicable. The distribution of profitable companies in each fund's top 10 holdings is presented in Table 2. We can observe that only 66% of ARKX's top 10 holdings are profitable. This is incomplete as the degree of profitability relative to its valuation is not considered.\nTable 2: Distribution of Profitable Companies\n\n\n\nFunds\nDistribution of Profitable Companies\n\n\nARKX\n66%\n\n\nARKK/ARKW]]\n60%\n\n\nARKQ\n80%\n\n\nARKF\n70%\n\n\n\nSource: Author, YCharts\nDistribution of P/S ratio of each fund's top 10 holdings\nPE ratio reflects a company's degree of profitability relative to its valuation. Our perspective changed when we consider the PE ratio of the funds' top 10 holdings. We observed that the PE ratio of ARKX's top 10 holdings is significantly lower than other ARK ETFs' top 10 holdings. This implies that ARKX's holdings have the highest margin of safety, such that ARKX is the least prone to sharp decline compared to other ARK ETFs.\nChart 2: PE ratio of ARKX's top 10 holdings\nData by YCharts\nChart 3: PE ratio of ARKK/ARKW's top 10 holdings\nData by YCharts\nChart 4: PE ratio of ARKQ's top 10 holdings\n\nChart 5: PE ratio of ARKF's top 10 holdings\nSources: YCharts\nDistribution of P/S ratio of each fund's top 10 holdings\nSince the loss-making companies from ARK ETFs' top 10 holdings are not considered when analyzing PE ratio, we examine their PS ratio for a more robust comparison. Chart 6 to Chart 9 represents the PS ratio of ARK ETF's top 10 holdings.\nThe conclusion from the PS ratio comparison aligns with the PE ratio comparison. ARKX's top 10 holdings have the lowest PS ratio than the top 10 holdings of other ARK ETFs. This also implies that ARKX has the highest margin of safety compared to other ARK ETFs.\nChart 6: PS ratio of ARKX's top 10 holdings\nData by YCharts\nChart 7: PS ratio of ARKK/ARKW's top 10 holdings\nData by YCharts\nChart 8: PS ratio of ARKQ's top 10 holdings\n\nChart 9: PS ratio of ARKF's top 10 holdings\nSources: YCharts\nNet interest income of each fund's top 10 holdings\nChart 10 to Chart 13 represents the net interest income of ARK ETF's top 10 holdings. The higher the net interest income, the better. This is because higher interest rates will boost both interest income and interest expense.\nARKX's top 10 holdings have the worse net interest income, where only 1 of the 10 companies enjoys positive net interest income. We found that this is due to higher exposure to aviation-related companies. For instance, Boeing (BA) has taken a $13.8bil loan to help deal with cash burns due to the pandemic.\nNevertheless, ARKX's holdings are likely to suffer more interest expense (and decreased earnings) as the Fed starts selling corporate bonds and raise interest rates. If interest rates become too burdensome, these holdings might even face higher liquidity risks than other ARK ETFs' holdings. Therefore, ARKX is not as resilient to rising interest rates compared to other ARK ETFs.\nChart 10: Net Interest Income of ARKX's top 10 holdings\nData by YCharts\nChart 11: Net Interest Income of ARKK/ARKW's top 10 holdings\nData by YCharts\nChart 12: Net Interest Income of ARKQ's top 10 holdings\n\nChart 13: Net Interest Income of ARKF's top 10 holdings\nSources: YCharts\nOperating cash flow of each fund's top 10 holdings\nIn terms of cash flow from operating activities, the top 10 holdings of ARK ETFs have similar performance, except Boeing. This means that ARK ETFs' top 10 holdings can generate cash flow from its core business. Hence it is less likely that the companies will require debt for operation when interest rates rise. No standout winner in this category.\nChart 14: Operating cash flow of ARKX's top 10 holdings\nData by YCharts\nChart 15: Operating cash flow of ARKK/ARKW's top 10 holdings\nData by YCharts\nChart 16: Operating cash flow of ARKQ's top 10 holdings\n\nChart 17: Operating cash flow of ARKF's top 10 holdings\nSources: YCharts\nConclusion and final remark\nMay's initial jobless claims can be considered as the substantial progress the Fed is referring to. A great valuation will likely follow in the event of the Fed's taper tantrum and rising interest rates. Therefore, it is important to rotate into cash- or value-oriented stock as companies with visible earnings will sustain less devaluation from higher required returns.\nCathie Wood claimed that ARKX has a lot of value-oriented companies. This is true, as evident from the PS ratio and PE ratio of ARK ETFs' top 10 holdings. Therefore, ARKX is indeed more resilient to devaluation from rising interest rates.\nHowever, investors should note that ARKX's holdings are more prone to liquidity risks as its holdings are more exposed to aviation-related companies such as Boeing.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"ARKX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1434,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":11,"subscribersOnly":false,"subscribersOnlyAccessible":false,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/116521025"}
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