iamted
2021-06-04
Disappointment
3 Reasons Gilead Sciences Is A Cash Cow You Can Buy Today<blockquote>吉利德科学是您今天可以购买的摇钱树的 3 个理由</blockquote>
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I also highlight the dividend, balance sheet, and other points worth considering.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f48135c9af201c82b96bfc83b7252a15\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"485\"><span>Photo by Galeanu Mihai/iStock via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>吉利德科学是一家盈利稳健的企业，利润率高，自由现金流强劲。</li><li>虽然它确实有专利悬崖要处理，但有前途的管道可以弥补这一点。</li><li>GILD似乎被低估了。我还强调了股息、资产负债表和其他值得考虑的要点。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>摄影：Galeanu Mihai/iStock via Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Some investors may shy away from battleground stocks for various reasons. It’s important to keep in mind, however, that there are two sides to every coin, and where some investors see risk, others see opportunity. This brings me to Gilead Sciences (GILD) which appears to be one such stock.</p><p><blockquote>一些投资者可能出于各种原因回避战场股票。不过，重要的是要记住，每枚硬币都有两面性，有些投资者看到风险，有些投资者看到机会。这让我想到了吉利德科学（GILD），它似乎就是这样一只股票。</blockquote></p><p> In this article, I highlight the positives and negatives around the stock, and examine what makes it a buy at present for dividends and growth, so let’s get started.</p><p><blockquote>在本文中，我将重点介绍该股的利弊，并探讨目前是什么让它成为股息和增长的买入之选，让我们开始吧。</blockquote></p><p> <b>What Makes Gilead A Buy</b></p><p><blockquote><b>是什么让吉利德值得买入</b></blockquote></p><p> Gilead Sciences is a large-cap biopharmaceutical company that’s been around for more than three decades, and operates in more than 35 countries worldwide. It’s best known for producing medicines that treat life-threatening diseases, including HIV, viral hepatitis, and cancer. In the trailing 12 months, Gilead generated $25.6B in total revenue.</p><p><blockquote>吉利德科学是一家大型生物制药公司，已有三十多年的历史，业务遍及全球超过 35 个国家。它以生产治疗危及生命的疾病的药物而闻名，包括艾滋病毒、病毒性肝炎和癌症。过去 12 个月，吉利德的总收入为 25.6B 美元。</blockquote></p><p> One of the reasons for why I’m bullish around GILD is that the enterprise remains a cash cow, as supported by its high margins. Over the past decade, GILD’s operating margin has stayed above the 40% mark for virtually the entire time. This speaks to the mission-critical nature of its treatments and the pricing power that GILD has held over this time period. As seen below, GILD’s op margin sits above that of its U.S. peers Merck (MRK), AbbVie (ABBV), Pfizer (PFE), Amgen (AMGN), and Bristol-Myers Squibb (BMY).</p><p><blockquote>我看好 GILD 的原因之一是，在高利润率的支持下，该企业仍然是摇钱树。在过去十年中，GILD 的营业利润率几乎一直保持在 40% 以上。这说明了其治疗的关键任务性质以及 GILD 在此期间所拥有的定价权。如下图所示，GILD 的营业利润率高于美国同行默克（MRK）、艾伯维（ABBV）、辉瑞（PFE）、安进（AMGN）和百时美施贵宝（BMY）。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a2da5e1c969783d3d7045e000aac1260\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"431\"><span>(Source: YCharts)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：YCharts）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Secondly, at the same time, GILD currently sports one of the highest dividend yields in the pharmaceutical sector. At the forward yield of 4.3%, GILD’s dividend sits only below that of ABBV’s 4.7% yield in the aforementioned peer group. It also comes with plenty of safety and growth, as it has a payout ratio of 40%, with a 5-year CAGR of 16.4%. The low payout ratio leaves GILD with plenty of financial flexibility for repayment of debt and share buybacks, and this includes $1.3B of debt repayments and $309M of share repurchases during Q1’21.</p><p><blockquote>其次，与此同时，GILD目前是制药行业股息收益率最高的公司之一。在上述同行中，GILD 的远期收益率为 4.3%，仅低于 ABBV 4.7% 的收益率。它还具有足够的安全性和增长性，因为它的支付率为40%，5年CAGR为16.4%。低派息率使吉尔德在偿还债务和回购股票方面拥有充足的财务灵活性，其中包括 21 年第一季度的 13 亿美元债务偿还和 3.09 亿美元股票回购。</blockquote></p><p> As seen below, GILD’s dividend yield is now nearly at the highest level over the past 10 years, as a result of both relative undervaluation and robust dividend growth over this time frame. Note: the following chart shows the dividend yield based on the trailing 12 months’ dividends.</p><p><blockquote>如下所示，由于相对低估和在此期间股息增长强劲，GILD 的股息收益率目前几乎处于过去 10 年来的最高水平。注：下图显示了基于过去 12 个月股息的股息收益率。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/459ce3787c409817fc8e572a899e40e0\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"349\"><span>(Source: YCharts)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：YCharts）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Thirdly, GILD has a promising pipeline in the novel cancer drug, Trodelvy, with new indications. This includes applications for breast cancer, bladder cancer, and advanced urothelial cancer, which was recently grantedaccelerated approvalby the FDA in April. Trodelvy has the potential to become the next blockbuster drug for GILD, as Morningstar estimates it to generate probability-weighted sales of $5B annually by 2030. This is rather significant, as it represents 20% of GILD’s current annual run rate revenue.</p><p><blockquote>第三，GILD 在新型癌症药物 Trodelvy 方面拥有前景光明的管道，并具有新的适应症。这包括乳腺癌、膀胱癌和晚期尿路上皮癌的申请，这些申请最近于 4 月份获得了 FDA 的加速批准。Trodelvy 有潜力成为 GILD 的下一个重磅药物，晨星估计到 2030 年，它每年的概率加权销售额将达到 $5B。这相当可观，因为它占 GILD 目前年度运行费率收入的 20%。</blockquote></p><p> Meanwhile, GILD continues to post strong results, while other big pharma companies have seen declines. This is reflected by a strong Q1’21, during which GILD’s revenue increased by16%YoY to $6.4B, driven by Veklury (also known as Remdesivir, the anti-viral treatment for COVID-19), and Yescarta & Tecartus, which are cancer treatments that came from the Kite Pharma acquisition. I’m also encouraged by adjusted EPS improving by 24% YoY driven by operating efficiencies and a lower tax rate.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，GILD 继续公布强劲业绩，而其他大型制药公司则出现下滑。在 Veklury（又名瑞德西韦，COVID-19 的抗病毒治疗药物）和 Yescarta & Tecartus 的带动下，GILD 的收入同比增长了 16%，达到 64 亿美元。在运营效率和较低税率的推动下，调整后每股收益同比增长了 24%，这也让我感到鼓舞。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Balance Sheet and Valuation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>资产负债表及估值</b></blockquote></p><p> Turning to the balance sheet, GILD’s net debt balance has increased in recent years as a result of an aggressive acquisition strategy. This includes the acquisition of Galapagos in 2019 for nearly $4B, and the acquisition of Immunomedics last year for $21B, which brought in the drug, Trodelvy. I’m encouraged by the $1.3B of debt repayments made during the first quarter, and the net debt to EBITDA ratio of 1.7x sits well below the 3.0x level that I prefer to see.</p><p><blockquote>从资产负债表来看，由于积极的收购战略，吉尔德的净债务余额近年来有所增加。其中包括 2019 年以近 40 亿美元收购 Galapagos，以及去年以近 21 亿美元收购 Immunomedics，并引入了药物 Trodelvy。我对第一季度偿还的 13 亿美元债务感到鼓舞，净债务与 EBITDA 的比率为 1.7 倍，远低于我希望看到的 3.0 倍水平。</blockquote></p><p> Plus, GILD generated levered free cash flow (after interest payments) of $8.7B over the trailing 12 months. After dividends, this leaves $5.2B in remaining cash flow to repay debt. As such, GILD could hypothetically reduce its net debt balance to $0 after just 4.5 years, should it maintain at least the same level of FCF.</p><p><blockquote>此外，GILD 在过去 12 个月中产生了 $8.7B 的杠杆自由现金流（扣除利息后）。股息后，剩下 5.2B 美元的剩余现金流来偿还债务。因此，如果 GILD 至少保持相同的自由现金流水平，假设它可以在 4.5 年后将其净债务余额减少至 0 美元。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Valuation-wise, I find GILD to be attractive at the current price of $66.48, with a forward PE of just 9.4. At this valuation, GILD is essentially being priced for a no growth future, which I don’t believe to be the case. While analysts expect a mid single-digit decline in earnings next year, bottom-line profitability is expected to pick up in the 2023-2024 timeframe, with 5-14% annual EPS growth. This brings GILD’s forward PE to just 8.4 based on 2024 analyst estimates. Analysts have a consensus Buy rating on GILD, with a $75 price target, and Morningstar rates GILD as a 4-Star Buy, with an $80 target.</p><p><blockquote>就估值而言，我发现 GILD 目前 66.48 美元的价格很有吸引力，远期市盈率仅为 9.4。按照这个估值，吉尔德的未来基本上没有增长，但我认为事实并非如此。虽然分析师预计明年盈利将出现中个位数的下降，但底线盈利能力预计将在 2023-2024 年期间回升，每股收益年增长率为 5-14%。根据分析师对 2024 年的预测，这使得 GILD 的远期市盈率仅为 8.4。分析师一致给予 GILD 买入评级，目标价为 75 美元，晨星公司将 GILD 评级为 4 星买入，目标价为 80 美元。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/90b3fd475450d2edeff9cc9cd8a15c7a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"250\"><span>(Source: Seeking Alpha)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：Seeking Alpha）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Of course, no investment is risk-free, and the following points are worth considering:</p><p><blockquote>当然，没有一项投资是没有风险的，以下几点值得考虑：</blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>Like all pharmaceutical companies, GILD has to deal with patent cliffs. This includes patent expirations on its HIV drugs this year. As such, GILD will need to convert its HIV patients to newer products like Biktarvy.</li> <li>There’s no guarantee that newer drugs and ones in the pipeline will live up to their expectations.</li> <li>Price competition from peers may give PBMs (pharmacy benefit managers) more leverage to negotiate aggressively with GILD.</li> <li>Investors should always maintain appropriate risk caps and diversification.</li> </ul> <b>Investor Takeaway</b></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>与所有制药公司一样，GILD 也必须应对专利悬崖。这包括今年其艾滋病毒药物的专利到期。因此，GILD 需要将其 HIV 患者转化为 Biktarvy 等新产品。</li><li>不能保证较新的药物和正在研发的药物一定能达到他们的期望。</li><li>来自同行的价格竞争可能会给 PBM（药房福利经理）更多的筹码来与 GILD 积极谈判。</li><li>投资者应始终保持适当的风险上限和分散投资。</li></ul><b>投资者要点</b></blockquote></p><p> Gilead Sciences is a battleground pharmaceutical stock that appears to be cheap by all measures. While there are some legitimate concerns around patent cliffs, GILD remains a solidly profitable enterprise with strong margins and free cash flow, and has a promising pipeline. Meanwhile, GILD pays a well-covered 4.3% dividend yield with a low payout ratio.</p><p><blockquote>吉利德科学是一只战场制药股，无论从哪个角度来看，它似乎都很便宜。尽管围绕专利悬崖存在一些合理的担忧，但 GILD 仍然是一家盈利稳健的企业，拥有强劲的利润率和自由现金流，并且拥有一条有前途的渠道。与此同时，GILD 支付的股息收益率为 4.3%，且派息率低。</blockquote></p><p> This leaves plenty of room for share repurchases and debt paydown, which management executed on during the first quarter. At the current valuation, GILD is priced for a no-growth future, which I do not believe to be the case. As such, I view GILD as being an attractive buy for long-term income and growth.</p><p><blockquote>这为管理层在第一季度执行的股票回购和债务偿还留下了足够的空间。按照目前的估值，GILD 的未来不会增长，但我认为情况并非如此。因此，我认为 GILD 对于长期收入和增长来说是一个有吸引力的买入机会。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>3 Reasons Gilead Sciences Is A Cash Cow You Can Buy Today<blockquote>吉利德科学是您今天可以购买的摇钱树的 3 个理由</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n3 Reasons Gilead Sciences Is A Cash Cow You Can Buy Today<blockquote>吉利德科学是您今天可以购买的摇钱树的 3 个理由</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-04 17:06</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>Gilead Sciences is a solidly profitable enterprise with high margins and strong free cash flow.</li> <li>While it does have patent cliffs to deal with, the promising pipeline could make up for that.</li> <li>GILD appears to be cheaply valued. I also highlight the dividend, balance sheet, and other points worth considering.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f48135c9af201c82b96bfc83b7252a15\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"485\"><span>Photo by Galeanu Mihai/iStock via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>吉利德科学是一家盈利稳健的企业，利润率高，自由现金流强劲。</li><li>虽然它确实有专利悬崖要处理，但有前途的管道可以弥补这一点。</li><li>GILD似乎被低估了。我还强调了股息、资产负债表和其他值得考虑的要点。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>摄影：Galeanu Mihai/iStock via Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Some investors may shy away from battleground stocks for various reasons. It’s important to keep in mind, however, that there are two sides to every coin, and where some investors see risk, others see opportunity. This brings me to Gilead Sciences (GILD) which appears to be one such stock.</p><p><blockquote>一些投资者可能出于各种原因回避战场股票。不过，重要的是要记住，每枚硬币都有两面性，有些投资者看到风险，有些投资者看到机会。这让我想到了吉利德科学（GILD），它似乎就是这样一只股票。</blockquote></p><p> In this article, I highlight the positives and negatives around the stock, and examine what makes it a buy at present for dividends and growth, so let’s get started.</p><p><blockquote>在本文中，我将重点介绍该股的利弊，并探讨目前是什么让它成为股息和增长的买入之选，让我们开始吧。</blockquote></p><p> <b>What Makes Gilead A Buy</b></p><p><blockquote><b>是什么让吉利德值得买入</b></blockquote></p><p> Gilead Sciences is a large-cap biopharmaceutical company that’s been around for more than three decades, and operates in more than 35 countries worldwide. It’s best known for producing medicines that treat life-threatening diseases, including HIV, viral hepatitis, and cancer. In the trailing 12 months, Gilead generated $25.6B in total revenue.</p><p><blockquote>吉利德科学是一家大型生物制药公司，已有三十多年的历史，业务遍及全球超过 35 个国家。它以生产治疗危及生命的疾病的药物而闻名，包括艾滋病毒、病毒性肝炎和癌症。过去 12 个月，吉利德的总收入为 25.6B 美元。</blockquote></p><p> One of the reasons for why I’m bullish around GILD is that the enterprise remains a cash cow, as supported by its high margins. Over the past decade, GILD’s operating margin has stayed above the 40% mark for virtually the entire time. This speaks to the mission-critical nature of its treatments and the pricing power that GILD has held over this time period. As seen below, GILD’s op margin sits above that of its U.S. peers Merck (MRK), AbbVie (ABBV), Pfizer (PFE), Amgen (AMGN), and Bristol-Myers Squibb (BMY).</p><p><blockquote>我看好 GILD 的原因之一是，在高利润率的支持下，该企业仍然是摇钱树。在过去十年中，GILD 的营业利润率几乎一直保持在 40% 以上。这说明了其治疗的关键任务性质以及 GILD 在此期间所拥有的定价权。如下图所示，GILD 的营业利润率高于美国同行默克（MRK）、艾伯维（ABBV）、辉瑞（PFE）、安进（AMGN）和百时美施贵宝（BMY）。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a2da5e1c969783d3d7045e000aac1260\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"431\"><span>(Source: YCharts)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：YCharts）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Secondly, at the same time, GILD currently sports one of the highest dividend yields in the pharmaceutical sector. At the forward yield of 4.3%, GILD’s dividend sits only below that of ABBV’s 4.7% yield in the aforementioned peer group. It also comes with plenty of safety and growth, as it has a payout ratio of 40%, with a 5-year CAGR of 16.4%. The low payout ratio leaves GILD with plenty of financial flexibility for repayment of debt and share buybacks, and this includes $1.3B of debt repayments and $309M of share repurchases during Q1’21.</p><p><blockquote>其次，与此同时，GILD目前是制药行业股息收益率最高的公司之一。在上述同行中，GILD 的远期收益率为 4.3%，仅低于 ABBV 4.7% 的收益率。它还具有足够的安全性和增长性，因为它的支付率为40%，5年CAGR为16.4%。低派息率使吉尔德在偿还债务和回购股票方面拥有充足的财务灵活性，其中包括 21 年第一季度的 13 亿美元债务偿还和 3.09 亿美元股票回购。</blockquote></p><p> As seen below, GILD’s dividend yield is now nearly at the highest level over the past 10 years, as a result of both relative undervaluation and robust dividend growth over this time frame. Note: the following chart shows the dividend yield based on the trailing 12 months’ dividends.</p><p><blockquote>如下所示，由于相对低估和在此期间股息增长强劲，GILD 的股息收益率目前几乎处于过去 10 年来的最高水平。注：下图显示了基于过去 12 个月股息的股息收益率。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/459ce3787c409817fc8e572a899e40e0\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"349\"><span>(Source: YCharts)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：YCharts）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Thirdly, GILD has a promising pipeline in the novel cancer drug, Trodelvy, with new indications. This includes applications for breast cancer, bladder cancer, and advanced urothelial cancer, which was recently grantedaccelerated approvalby the FDA in April. Trodelvy has the potential to become the next blockbuster drug for GILD, as Morningstar estimates it to generate probability-weighted sales of $5B annually by 2030. This is rather significant, as it represents 20% of GILD’s current annual run rate revenue.</p><p><blockquote>第三，GILD 在新型癌症药物 Trodelvy 方面拥有前景光明的管道，并具有新的适应症。这包括乳腺癌、膀胱癌和晚期尿路上皮癌的申请，这些申请最近于 4 月份获得了 FDA 的加速批准。Trodelvy 有潜力成为 GILD 的下一个重磅药物，晨星估计到 2030 年，它每年的概率加权销售额将达到 $5B。这相当可观，因为它占 GILD 目前年度运行费率收入的 20%。</blockquote></p><p> Meanwhile, GILD continues to post strong results, while other big pharma companies have seen declines. This is reflected by a strong Q1’21, during which GILD’s revenue increased by16%YoY to $6.4B, driven by Veklury (also known as Remdesivir, the anti-viral treatment for COVID-19), and Yescarta & Tecartus, which are cancer treatments that came from the Kite Pharma acquisition. I’m also encouraged by adjusted EPS improving by 24% YoY driven by operating efficiencies and a lower tax rate.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，GILD 继续公布强劲业绩，而其他大型制药公司则出现下滑。在 Veklury（又名瑞德西韦，COVID-19 的抗病毒治疗药物）和 Yescarta & Tecartus 的带动下，GILD 的收入同比增长了 16%，达到 64 亿美元。在运营效率和较低税率的推动下，调整后每股收益同比增长了 24%，这也让我感到鼓舞。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Balance Sheet and Valuation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>资产负债表及估值</b></blockquote></p><p> Turning to the balance sheet, GILD’s net debt balance has increased in recent years as a result of an aggressive acquisition strategy. This includes the acquisition of Galapagos in 2019 for nearly $4B, and the acquisition of Immunomedics last year for $21B, which brought in the drug, Trodelvy. I’m encouraged by the $1.3B of debt repayments made during the first quarter, and the net debt to EBITDA ratio of 1.7x sits well below the 3.0x level that I prefer to see.</p><p><blockquote>从资产负债表来看，由于积极的收购战略，吉尔德的净债务余额近年来有所增加。其中包括 2019 年以近 40 亿美元收购 Galapagos，以及去年以近 21 亿美元收购 Immunomedics，并引入了药物 Trodelvy。我对第一季度偿还的 13 亿美元债务感到鼓舞，净债务与 EBITDA 的比率为 1.7 倍，远低于我希望看到的 3.0 倍水平。</blockquote></p><p> Plus, GILD generated levered free cash flow (after interest payments) of $8.7B over the trailing 12 months. After dividends, this leaves $5.2B in remaining cash flow to repay debt. As such, GILD could hypothetically reduce its net debt balance to $0 after just 4.5 years, should it maintain at least the same level of FCF.</p><p><blockquote>此外，GILD 在过去 12 个月中产生了 $8.7B 的杠杆自由现金流（扣除利息后）。股息后，剩下 5.2B 美元的剩余现金流来偿还债务。因此，如果 GILD 至少保持相同的自由现金流水平，假设它可以在 4.5 年后将其净债务余额减少至 0 美元。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Valuation-wise, I find GILD to be attractive at the current price of $66.48, with a forward PE of just 9.4. At this valuation, GILD is essentially being priced for a no growth future, which I don’t believe to be the case. While analysts expect a mid single-digit decline in earnings next year, bottom-line profitability is expected to pick up in the 2023-2024 timeframe, with 5-14% annual EPS growth. This brings GILD’s forward PE to just 8.4 based on 2024 analyst estimates. Analysts have a consensus Buy rating on GILD, with a $75 price target, and Morningstar rates GILD as a 4-Star Buy, with an $80 target.</p><p><blockquote>就估值而言，我发现 GILD 目前 66.48 美元的价格很有吸引力，远期市盈率仅为 9.4。按照这个估值，吉尔德的未来基本上没有增长，但我认为事实并非如此。虽然分析师预计明年盈利将出现中个位数的下降，但底线盈利能力预计将在 2023-2024 年期间回升，每股收益年增长率为 5-14%。根据分析师对 2024 年的预测，这使得 GILD 的远期市盈率仅为 8.4。分析师一致给予 GILD 买入评级，目标价为 75 美元，晨星公司将 GILD 评级为 4 星买入，目标价为 80 美元。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/90b3fd475450d2edeff9cc9cd8a15c7a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"250\"><span>(Source: Seeking Alpha)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：Seeking Alpha）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Of course, no investment is risk-free, and the following points are worth considering:</p><p><blockquote>当然，没有一项投资是没有风险的，以下几点值得考虑：</blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>Like all pharmaceutical companies, GILD has to deal with patent cliffs. This includes patent expirations on its HIV drugs this year. As such, GILD will need to convert its HIV patients to newer products like Biktarvy.</li> <li>There’s no guarantee that newer drugs and ones in the pipeline will live up to their expectations.</li> <li>Price competition from peers may give PBMs (pharmacy benefit managers) more leverage to negotiate aggressively with GILD.</li> <li>Investors should always maintain appropriate risk caps and diversification.</li> </ul> <b>Investor Takeaway</b></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>与所有制药公司一样，GILD 也必须应对专利悬崖。这包括今年其艾滋病毒药物的专利到期。因此，GILD 需要将其 HIV 患者转化为 Biktarvy 等新产品。</li><li>不能保证较新的药物和正在研发的药物一定能达到他们的期望。</li><li>来自同行的价格竞争可能会给 PBM（药房福利经理）更多的筹码来与 GILD 积极谈判。</li><li>投资者应始终保持适当的风险上限和分散投资。</li></ul><b>投资者要点</b></blockquote></p><p> Gilead Sciences is a battleground pharmaceutical stock that appears to be cheap by all measures. While there are some legitimate concerns around patent cliffs, GILD remains a solidly profitable enterprise with strong margins and free cash flow, and has a promising pipeline. Meanwhile, GILD pays a well-covered 4.3% dividend yield with a low payout ratio.</p><p><blockquote>吉利德科学是一只战场制药股，无论从哪个角度来看，它似乎都很便宜。尽管围绕专利悬崖存在一些合理的担忧，但 GILD 仍然是一家盈利稳健的企业，拥有强劲的利润率和自由现金流，并且拥有一条有前途的渠道。与此同时，GILD 支付的股息收益率为 4.3%，且派息率低。</blockquote></p><p> This leaves plenty of room for share repurchases and debt paydown, which management executed on during the first quarter. At the current valuation, GILD is priced for a no-growth future, which I do not believe to be the case. As such, I view GILD as being an attractive buy for long-term income and growth.</p><p><blockquote>这为管理层在第一季度执行的股票回购和债务偿还留下了足够的空间。按照目前的估值，GILD 的未来不会增长，但我认为情况并非如此。因此，我认为 GILD 对于长期收入和增长来说是一个有吸引力的买入机会。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4433059-3-reasons-gilead-sciences-is-cash-cow-you-can-buy-today\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"GILD":"吉利德科学"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4433059-3-reasons-gilead-sciences-is-cash-cow-you-can-buy-today","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1168122427","content_text":"Summary\n\nGilead Sciences is a solidly profitable enterprise with high margins and strong free cash flow.\nWhile it does have patent cliffs to deal with, the promising pipeline could make up for that.\nGILD appears to be cheaply valued. I also highlight the dividend, balance sheet, and other points worth considering.\n\nPhoto by Galeanu Mihai/iStock via Getty Images\nSome investors may shy away from battleground stocks for various reasons. It’s important to keep in mind, however, that there are two sides to every coin, and where some investors see risk, others see opportunity. This brings me to Gilead Sciences (GILD) which appears to be one such stock.\nIn this article, I highlight the positives and negatives around the stock, and examine what makes it a buy at present for dividends and growth, so let’s get started.\nWhat Makes Gilead A Buy\nGilead Sciences is a large-cap biopharmaceutical company that’s been around for more than three decades, and operates in more than 35 countries worldwide. It’s best known for producing medicines that treat life-threatening diseases, including HIV, viral hepatitis, and cancer. In the trailing 12 months, Gilead generated $25.6B in total revenue.\nOne of the reasons for why I’m bullish around GILD is that the enterprise remains a cash cow, as supported by its high margins. Over the past decade, GILD’s operating margin has stayed above the 40% mark for virtually the entire time. This speaks to the mission-critical nature of its treatments and the pricing power that GILD has held over this time period. As seen below, GILD’s op margin sits above that of its U.S. peers Merck (MRK), AbbVie (ABBV), Pfizer (PFE), Amgen (AMGN), and Bristol-Myers Squibb (BMY).\n(Source: YCharts)\nSecondly, at the same time, GILD currently sports one of the highest dividend yields in the pharmaceutical sector. At the forward yield of 4.3%, GILD’s dividend sits only below that of ABBV’s 4.7% yield in the aforementioned peer group. It also comes with plenty of safety and growth, as it has a payout ratio of 40%, with a 5-year CAGR of 16.4%. The low payout ratio leaves GILD with plenty of financial flexibility for repayment of debt and share buybacks, and this includes $1.3B of debt repayments and $309M of share repurchases during Q1’21.\nAs seen below, GILD’s dividend yield is now nearly at the highest level over the past 10 years, as a result of both relative undervaluation and robust dividend growth over this time frame. Note: the following chart shows the dividend yield based on the trailing 12 months’ dividends.\n(Source: YCharts)\nThirdly, GILD has a promising pipeline in the novel cancer drug, Trodelvy, with new indications. This includes applications for breast cancer, bladder cancer, and advanced urothelial cancer, which was recently grantedaccelerated approvalby the FDA in April. Trodelvy has the potential to become the next blockbuster drug for GILD, as Morningstar estimates it to generate probability-weighted sales of $5B annually by 2030. This is rather significant, as it represents 20% of GILD’s current annual run rate revenue.\nMeanwhile, GILD continues to post strong results, while other big pharma companies have seen declines. This is reflected by a strong Q1’21, during which GILD’s revenue increased by16%YoY to $6.4B, driven by Veklury (also known as Remdesivir, the anti-viral treatment for COVID-19), and Yescarta & Tecartus, which are cancer treatments that came from the Kite Pharma acquisition. I’m also encouraged by adjusted EPS improving by 24% YoY driven by operating efficiencies and a lower tax rate.\nBalance Sheet and Valuation\nTurning to the balance sheet, GILD’s net debt balance has increased in recent years as a result of an aggressive acquisition strategy. This includes the acquisition of Galapagos in 2019 for nearly $4B, and the acquisition of Immunomedics last year for $21B, which brought in the drug, Trodelvy. I’m encouraged by the $1.3B of debt repayments made during the first quarter, and the net debt to EBITDA ratio of 1.7x sits well below the 3.0x level that I prefer to see.\nPlus, GILD generated levered free cash flow (after interest payments) of $8.7B over the trailing 12 months. After dividends, this leaves $5.2B in remaining cash flow to repay debt. As such, GILD could hypothetically reduce its net debt balance to $0 after just 4.5 years, should it maintain at least the same level of FCF.\nValuation-wise, I find GILD to be attractive at the current price of $66.48, with a forward PE of just 9.4. At this valuation, GILD is essentially being priced for a no growth future, which I don’t believe to be the case. While analysts expect a mid single-digit decline in earnings next year, bottom-line profitability is expected to pick up in the 2023-2024 timeframe, with 5-14% annual EPS growth. This brings GILD’s forward PE to just 8.4 based on 2024 analyst estimates. Analysts have a consensus Buy rating on GILD, with a $75 price target, and Morningstar rates GILD as a 4-Star Buy, with an $80 target.\n(Source: Seeking Alpha)\nOf course, no investment is risk-free, and the following points are worth considering:\n\nLike all pharmaceutical companies, GILD has to deal with patent cliffs. This includes patent expirations on its HIV drugs this year. As such, GILD will need to convert its HIV patients to newer products like Biktarvy.\nThere’s no guarantee that newer drugs and ones in the pipeline will live up to their expectations.\nPrice competition from peers may give PBMs (pharmacy benefit managers) more leverage to negotiate aggressively with GILD.\nInvestors should always maintain appropriate risk caps and diversification.\n\nInvestor Takeaway\nGilead Sciences is a battleground pharmaceutical stock that appears to be cheap by all measures. While there are some legitimate concerns around patent cliffs, GILD remains a solidly profitable enterprise with strong margins and free cash flow, and has a promising pipeline. Meanwhile, GILD pays a well-covered 4.3% dividend yield with a low payout ratio.\nThis leaves plenty of room for share repurchases and debt paydown, which management executed on during the first quarter. At the current valuation, GILD is priced for a no-growth future, which I do not believe to be the case. As such, I view GILD as being an attractive buy for long-term income and growth.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"GILD":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":349,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":14,"subscribersOnly":false,"subscribersOnlyAccessible":false,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/116649293"}
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