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2021-06-08

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Since 2008, this has been the biggest signal for stock direction. Here’s where it’s telling investors to go now.<blockquote>自2008年以来，这是股票方向的最大信号。以下是它告诉投资者现在的方向。</blockquote>

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Here’s where it’s telling investors to go now.<blockquote>自2008年以来，这是股票方向的最大信号。以下是它告诉投资者现在的方向。</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1135816983","media":"marketwatch","summary":"Critical information for the U.S. trading day.\n\nThe summer lull is real for investors right now, as ","content":" Critical information for the U.S. trading day. The summer lull is real for investors right now, as stock catalysts seem few and far between. Thursday’s update on consumer prices could bring the next one, after May dataspooked markets last month.<blockquote>美国交易日的关键信息。对于投资者来说，现在的夏季平静是真实的，因为股市催化剂似乎很少。继上个月 5 月份的数据令市场感到恐惧之后，周四的消费者价格更新可能会带来下一次更新。</blockquote> With equitiesSPX,-0.08%hovering at record highs amid a mind-blowing recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic slump, investors want to know when and how central banks will start responding to signs of surging global inflation. And as not all stocks are built alike for different stages of a recovery, many rightly want to know if they are betting on the right ones.<blockquote>随着 equitiesSPX,-0.08% 在从 COVID-19 大流行低迷中令人兴奋的复苏中徘徊在历史高位，投资者想知道各国央行何时以及如何开始应对全球通胀飙升的迹象。由于并非所有股票在复苏的不同阶段都是一样的，因此许多人理所当然地想知道他们押注的股票是否正确。</blockquote> They should start by keeping an eye on what has been the most reliable indicator for stock direction since 2008 — the 10-year bond yieldTMUBMUSD10Y,1.541%,according to The Leuthold Group’s chief investment strategist, Jim Paulsen, who provides ourcall of the day.<blockquote>Leuthold 集团首席投资策略师吉姆-保尔森（Jim Paulsen）表示，他们应该首先关注自 2008 年以来最可靠的股市走向指标--10 年期债券收益率 TMUBMUSD10Y，1.541%。今日看涨期权.</blockquote> Since the 2008-09 financial crisis, “the bond market has been determining, or at least coincidentally signaling” which groups of stocks will be the winners and losers, he told clients in a note. That has been particularly true for several popular themes including cyclicals, growth investing, small-caps, etc.<blockquote>他在一份报告中告诉客户，自 2008-09 年金融危机以来，“债券市场一直在决定，或者至少是巧合地发出信号”，哪些股票组将成为赢家和输家。对于包括周期性、成长型投资、小盘股等在内的几个热门主题来说尤其如此。</blockquote> For example, via the below charts he showed how defensive sectors, such as utilities and staples or low-volatility investments, only do well when bond yields are headed lower:<blockquote>例如，他通过下面的图表展示了公用事业和必需品或低波动性投资等防御性行业只有在债券收益率走低时才会表现良好：</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/96c7d981e160fe9dea266dbe88c5eb97\" tg-width=\"1259\" tg-height=\"490\">The Leuthold Group<blockquote>洛伊特霍尔德集团</blockquote> So should the yield on the 10-year, currently hovering at 1.561%, make another run at 2%, that group is likely to underperform, he said. But if the economy is headed for overheat pressures and yields are set to rise, history has shown the most volatile stocks are often winner, he added.<blockquote>他表示，因此，如果目前徘徊在 1.561% 的 10 年期国债收益率再次达到 2%，该集团可能会表现不佳。但他补充说，如果经济面临过热压力，收益率将上升，历史表明，波动性最大的股票往往是赢家。</blockquote> Paulsen pointed to the below charts of small-cap stocks, cyclical sectors and emerging markets that are “often the winners during periods in which rising yields cause stock market mayhem.”<blockquote>保尔森指出，下面的小盘股、周期性行业和新兴市场图表 “在收益率上升造成股市混乱的时期，这些市场往往是赢家”。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/58ad9970b8d52f5524ef4da54113986a\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"461\">The Leuthold Group<blockquote>洛伊特霍尔德集团</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/13d5f3bc8075fad7b17676c51ffadaed\" tg-width=\"1259\" tg-height=\"929\">The Leuthold Group<blockquote>洛伊特霍尔德集团</blockquote> And the strategist is among those who do indeed see yields rising.<blockquote>这位策略师是确实看到收益率上升的人之一。</blockquote> “The recent pause in the 10-year yield despite escalating inflation expectations has been puzzling. Moreover, if yields continue to trend sideways or retrace part of their recent advance, defensive investments, including growth stocks, will likely be stock market leaders,” wrote Paulsen.<blockquote>“尽管通胀预期不断升级，但最近 10 年期国债收益率却停滞不前，这令人费解。此外，如果收益率继续横盘整理或回撤近期部分涨幅，包括成长型股票在内的防御性投资很可能会成为股市的领头羊，”保尔森写道。</blockquote> He expects another leg higher for that yield, pushing it above 2%, likely by the end of 2021. And that means “stock investors should heed the bond market’s message and drive a few of those fast ‘cyclical’ stock cars!”<blockquote>他预计该收益率将再次走高，可能在 2021 年底前将其推高至 2% 以上。这意味着 “股票投资者应该听从债券市场的信息，驾驶一些快速的‘周期性’股票汽车!”</blockquote> Bitcoin blues and billionaires and taxes<blockquote>比特币忧郁、亿万富翁和税收</blockquote> U.S. stock futuresES00,0.14%NQ00,0.49%YM00,-0.06%are trading mixed, with European stocksSXXP,0.35%flat, while Asian marketspulled back. OilCL.1,-0.92%is slipping, the dollarDXY,0.14%is up and bitcoinBTCUSD,-3.83%and other cryptocurrencies continue to fall. Some note digital assets sagging since the news that U.S. authoritiesmanaged to recover most of the bitcoin usedto pay a ransomware attack on a key energy pipeline.<blockquote>美国股指期货SES00,0.14%NQ00,0.49%YM00,-0.06%交易好坏参半，欧洲股市SSXXP,0.35%持平，而亚洲股市则回落。OilCL.1,-0.92%下滑，美元DXY,0.14%上涨，比特币BTCUSD,-3.83%和其他加密货币继续下跌。一些人指出，自从美国当局设法恢复了用于支付关键能源管道勒索软件攻击的大部分比特币的消息传出后，数字资产下跌。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/855f10c42119dd8220686f093a8dc34d\" tg-width=\"517\" tg-height=\"529\">On the data front, the National Federation of Independent Business index fell for the first time this year, ashiring woes hit small-business owners. Still ahead is the trade deficit report and job openings survey.<blockquote>在数据方面，全国独立企业联合会指数今年首次下降，小企业主遭受了沉重的打击。未来还有贸易逆差报告和职位空缺调查。</blockquote> Major global websites including Amazon.com, CNN and Bloomberghave been hit by outageson Tuesday. Shares of FastlyFSLY,+7.17%fell briefly after the cloud platform said it hasidentified a problemand was working on a fix.<blockquote>包括亚马逊、美国有线电视新闻网和彭博社在内的主要全球网站周二遭到中断。FastlyFSLY,+7.17% 的股价短暂下跌，此前该云平台表示已发现问题并正在进行修复。</blockquote> Billionaires including AmazonAMZN,-0.26%Chief Executive Jeff Bezos and Tesla Chief Executive Elon Musk at times have sidestepped federal income taxes,a new report says.<blockquote>一份新报告称，包括亚马逊（AmazonAMZN）首席执行官杰夫·贝佐斯（Jeff Bezos）和特斯拉首席执行官埃隆·马斯克（Elon Musk）在内的亿万富翁有时会逃避联邦所得税。</blockquote> Jerome Guillen, longtime president of TeslaTSLA,+1.01%Heavy Trucking, apparentlyleft the electric-car makerlast week.<blockquote>特斯拉 (TeslaTSLA) 长期总裁杰罗姆·吉伦 (Jerome Guillen) 显然于上周离开了这家电动汽车制造商。</blockquote> Back in May 2020, a U.S. government report on COVID-19 origins wasurging an investigation into the theorythat it leaked from a Wuhan laboratory.<blockquote>早在 2020 年 5 月，美国政府一份关于 COVID-19 起源的报告就呼吁对其从武汉实验室泄露的理论进行调查。</blockquote>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Since 2008, this has been the biggest signal for stock direction. 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Here’s where it’s telling investors to go now.<blockquote>自2008年以来，这是股票方向的最大信号。以下是它告诉投资者现在的方向。</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nmarketwatch2021-06-08 20:03\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n Critical information for the U.S. trading day. The summer lull is real for investors right now, as stock catalysts seem few and far between. Thursday’s update on consumer prices could bring the next one, after May dataspooked markets last month.<blockquote>美国交易日的关键信息。对于投资者来说，现在的夏季平静是真实的，因为股市催化剂似乎很少。继上个月 5 月份的数据令市场感到恐惧之后，周四的消费者价格更新可能会带来下一次更新。</blockquote> With equitiesSPX,-0.08%hovering at record highs amid a mind-blowing recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic slump, investors want to know when and how central banks will start responding to signs of surging global inflation. And as not all stocks are built alike for different stages of a recovery, many rightly want to know if they are betting on the right ones.<blockquote>随着 equitiesSPX,-0.08% 在从 COVID-19 大流行低迷中令人兴奋的复苏中徘徊在历史高位，投资者想知道各国央行何时以及如何开始应对全球通胀飙升的迹象。由于并非所有股票在复苏的不同阶段都是一样的，因此许多人理所当然地想知道他们押注的股票是否正确。</blockquote> They should start by keeping an eye on what has been the most reliable indicator for stock direction since 2008 — the 10-year bond yieldTMUBMUSD10Y,1.541%,according to The Leuthold Group’s chief investment strategist, Jim Paulsen, who provides ourcall of the day.<blockquote>Leuthold 集团首席投资策略师吉姆-保尔森（Jim Paulsen）表示，他们应该首先关注自 2008 年以来最可靠的股市走向指标--10 年期债券收益率 TMUBMUSD10Y，1.541%。今日看涨期权.</blockquote> Since the 2008-09 financial crisis, “the bond market has been determining, or at least coincidentally signaling” which groups of stocks will be the winners and losers, he told clients in a note. That has been particularly true for several popular themes including cyclicals, growth investing, small-caps, etc.<blockquote>他在一份报告中告诉客户，自 2008-09 年金融危机以来，“债券市场一直在决定，或者至少是巧合地发出信号”，哪些股票组将成为赢家和输家。对于包括周期性、成长型投资、小盘股等在内的几个热门主题来说尤其如此。</blockquote> For example, via the below charts he showed how defensive sectors, such as utilities and staples or low-volatility investments, only do well when bond yields are headed lower:<blockquote>例如，他通过下面的图表展示了公用事业和必需品或低波动性投资等防御性行业只有在债券收益率走低时才会表现良好：</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/96c7d981e160fe9dea266dbe88c5eb97\" tg-width=\"1259\" tg-height=\"490\">The Leuthold Group<blockquote>洛伊特霍尔德集团</blockquote> So should the yield on the 10-year, currently hovering at 1.561%, make another run at 2%, that group is likely to underperform, he said. But if the economy is headed for overheat pressures and yields are set to rise, history has shown the most volatile stocks are often winner, he added.<blockquote>他表示，因此，如果目前徘徊在 1.561% 的 10 年期国债收益率再次达到 2%，该集团可能会表现不佳。但他补充说，如果经济面临过热压力，收益率将上升，历史表明，波动性最大的股票往往是赢家。</blockquote> Paulsen pointed to the below charts of small-cap stocks, cyclical sectors and emerging markets that are “often the winners during periods in which rising yields cause stock market mayhem.”<blockquote>保尔森指出，下面的小盘股、周期性行业和新兴市场图表 “在收益率上升造成股市混乱的时期，这些市场往往是赢家”。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/58ad9970b8d52f5524ef4da54113986a\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"461\">The Leuthold Group<blockquote>洛伊特霍尔德集团</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/13d5f3bc8075fad7b17676c51ffadaed\" tg-width=\"1259\" tg-height=\"929\">The Leuthold Group<blockquote>洛伊特霍尔德集团</blockquote> And the strategist is among those who do indeed see yields rising.<blockquote>这位策略师是确实看到收益率上升的人之一。</blockquote> “The recent pause in the 10-year yield despite escalating inflation expectations has been puzzling. Moreover, if yields continue to trend sideways or retrace part of their recent advance, defensive investments, including growth stocks, will likely be stock market leaders,” wrote Paulsen.<blockquote>“尽管通胀预期不断升级，但最近 10 年期国债收益率却停滞不前，这令人费解。此外，如果收益率继续横盘整理或回撤近期部分涨幅，包括成长型股票在内的防御性投资很可能会成为股市的领头羊，”保尔森写道。</blockquote> He expects another leg higher for that yield, pushing it above 2%, likely by the end of 2021. And that means “stock investors should heed the bond market’s message and drive a few of those fast ‘cyclical’ stock cars!”<blockquote>他预计该收益率将再次走高，可能在 2021 年底前将其推高至 2% 以上。这意味着 “股票投资者应该听从债券市场的信息，驾驶一些快速的‘周期性’股票汽车!”</blockquote> Bitcoin blues and billionaires and taxes<blockquote>比特币忧郁、亿万富翁和税收</blockquote> U.S. stock futuresES00,0.14%NQ00,0.49%YM00,-0.06%are trading mixed, with European stocksSXXP,0.35%flat, while Asian marketspulled back. OilCL.1,-0.92%is slipping, the dollarDXY,0.14%is up and bitcoinBTCUSD,-3.83%and other cryptocurrencies continue to fall. Some note digital assets sagging since the news that U.S. authoritiesmanaged to recover most of the bitcoin usedto pay a ransomware attack on a key energy pipeline.<blockquote>美国股指期货SES00,0.14%NQ00,0.49%YM00,-0.06%交易好坏参半，欧洲股市SSXXP,0.35%持平，而亚洲股市则回落。OilCL.1,-0.92%下滑，美元DXY,0.14%上涨，比特币BTCUSD,-3.83%和其他加密货币继续下跌。一些人指出，自从美国当局设法恢复了用于支付关键能源管道勒索软件攻击的大部分比特币的消息传出后，数字资产下跌。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/855f10c42119dd8220686f093a8dc34d\" tg-width=\"517\" tg-height=\"529\">On the data front, the National Federation of Independent Business index fell for the first time this year, ashiring woes hit small-business owners. Still ahead is the trade deficit report and job openings survey.<blockquote>在数据方面，全国独立企业联合会指数今年首次下降，小企业主遭受了沉重的打击。未来还有贸易逆差报告和职位空缺调查。</blockquote> Major global websites including Amazon.com, CNN and Bloomberghave been hit by outageson Tuesday. Shares of FastlyFSLY,+7.17%fell briefly after the cloud platform said it hasidentified a problemand was working on a fix.<blockquote>包括亚马逊、美国有线电视新闻网和彭博社在内的主要全球网站周二遭到中断。FastlyFSLY,+7.17% 的股价短暂下跌，此前该云平台表示已发现问题并正在进行修复。</blockquote> Billionaires including AmazonAMZN,-0.26%Chief Executive Jeff Bezos and Tesla Chief Executive Elon Musk at times have sidestepped federal income taxes,a new report says.<blockquote>一份新报告称，包括亚马逊（AmazonAMZN）首席执行官杰夫·贝佐斯（Jeff Bezos）和特斯拉首席执行官埃隆·马斯克（Elon Musk）在内的亿万富翁有时会逃避联邦所得税。</blockquote> Jerome Guillen, longtime president of TeslaTSLA,+1.01%Heavy Trucking, apparentlyleft the electric-car makerlast week.<blockquote>特斯拉 (TeslaTSLA) 长期总裁杰罗姆·吉伦 (Jerome Guillen) 显然于上周离开了这家电动汽车制造商。</blockquote> Back in May 2020, a U.S. government report on COVID-19 origins wasurging an investigation into the theorythat it leaked from a Wuhan laboratory.<blockquote>早在 2020 年 5 月，美国政府一份关于 COVID-19 起源的报告就呼吁对其从武汉实验室泄露的理论进行调查。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/since-2008-this-has-been-the-biggest-signal-for-stock-direction-heres-where-its-telling-investors-to-go-now-11623151244?mod=home-page\">marketwatch</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯","SPY":"标普500ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/since-2008-this-has-been-the-biggest-signal-for-stock-direction-heres-where-its-telling-investors-to-go-now-11623151244?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1135816983","content_text":"Critical information for the U.S. trading day.\n\nThe summer lull is real for investors right now, as stock catalysts seem few and far between. Thursday’s update on consumer prices could bring the next one, after May dataspooked markets last month.\nWith equitiesSPX,-0.08%hovering at record highs amid a mind-blowing recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic slump, investors want to know when and how central banks will start responding to signs of surging global inflation. And as not all stocks are built alike for different stages of a recovery, many rightly want to know if they are betting on the right ones.\nThey should start by keeping an eye on what has been the most reliable indicator for stock direction since 2008 — the 10-year bond yieldTMUBMUSD10Y,1.541%,according to The Leuthold Group’s chief investment strategist, Jim Paulsen, who provides ourcall of the day.\nSince the 2008-09 financial crisis, “the bond market has been determining, or at least coincidentally signaling” which groups of stocks will be the winners and losers, he told clients in a note. That has been particularly true for several popular themes including cyclicals, growth investing, small-caps, etc.\nFor example, via the below charts he showed how defensive sectors, such as utilities and staples or low-volatility investments, only do well when bond yields are headed lower:\nThe Leuthold Group\nSo should the yield on the 10-year, currently hovering at 1.561%, make another run at 2%, that group is likely to underperform, he said. But if the economy is headed for overheat pressures and yields are set to rise, history has shown the most volatile stocks are often winner, he added.\nPaulsen pointed to the below charts of small-cap stocks, cyclical sectors and emerging markets that are “often the winners during periods in which rising yields cause stock market mayhem.”\nThe Leuthold Group\nThe Leuthold Group\nAnd the strategist is among those who do indeed see yields rising.\n“The recent pause in the 10-year yield despite escalating inflation expectations has been puzzling. Moreover, if yields continue to trend sideways or retrace part of their recent advance, defensive investments, including growth stocks, will likely be stock market leaders,” wrote Paulsen.\nHe expects another leg higher for that yield, pushing it above 2%, likely by the end of 2021. And that means “stock investors should heed the bond market’s message and drive a few of those fast ‘cyclical’ stock cars!”\nBitcoin blues and billionaires and taxes\nU.S. stock futuresES00,0.14%NQ00,0.49%YM00,-0.06%are trading mixed, with European stocksSXXP,0.35%flat, while Asian marketspulled back. OilCL.1,-0.92%is slipping, the dollarDXY,0.14%is up and bitcoinBTCUSD,-3.83%and other cryptocurrencies continue to fall. Some note digital assets sagging since the news that U.S. authoritiesmanaged to recover most of the bitcoin usedto pay a ransomware attack on a key energy pipeline.\nOn the data front, the National Federation of Independent Business index fell for the first time this year, ashiring woes hit small-business owners. Still ahead is the trade deficit report and job openings survey.\nMajor global websites including Amazon.com, CNN and Bloomberghave been hit by outageson Tuesday. Shares of FastlyFSLY,+7.17%fell briefly after the cloud platform said it hasidentified a problemand was working on a fix.\nBillionaires including AmazonAMZN,-0.26%Chief Executive Jeff Bezos and Tesla Chief Executive Elon Musk at times have sidestepped federal income taxes,a new report says.\nJerome Guillen, longtime president of TeslaTSLA,+1.01%Heavy Trucking, apparentlyleft the electric-car makerlast week.\nBack in May 2020, a U.S. government report on COVID-19 origins wasurging an investigation into the theorythat it leaked from a Wuhan laboratory.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SPY":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":593,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":17,"subscribersOnly":false,"subscribersOnlyAccessible":false,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/117493356"}