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2021-07-09

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‘You don’t have to be fully invested’ in the stock market today amid excess and speculation, says veteran investor Jim Stack<blockquote>资深投资者吉姆-斯塔克（Jim Stack）表示，在过度和投机的情况下，今天的股市“不必完全投资”。</blockquote>

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Stack has also been featured in Barron’s list of top investment advisers.<blockquote>他常驻蒙大拿州怀特菲什，在他的 Investech 研究通讯和管理 15 亿美元资产的资金管理公司 Stack Financial Management 中奉行 “安全第一 ”的方针。Stack 还入选了《巴伦周刊》顶级投资顾问名单。</blockquote> When I interviewed him late last week, he was worried Wall Street wasn’t paying enough attention to the many speculative excesses in the markets and the Federal Reserve was too complacent on inflation.<blockquote>上周末我采访他时，他担心华尔街对市场上的许多过度投机行为关注不够，美联储对通胀过于自满。</blockquote> Howard Gold:In your latest issue of Investech Research, you said the Federal Reserve reversed its hawkish stance and started unwinding its interest rate hikes out of fear back in December 2018. Could you tell us how that may have set the stage for some of the things that have happened since?<blockquote>霍华德·戈尔德：在最新一期的 Investech Research 中，您表示美联储在 2018 年 12 月扭转了鹰派立场，并出于恐惧开始放松加息。你能告诉我们这可能是如何为此后发生的一些事情奠定基础的吗？</blockquote> Jim Stack:As we’re going into 2019, this economic recovery was already one of the longest economic recoveries in U.S. history. But the Fed had started raising interest rates, and the stock market took notice, and we had the worst December since the Great Depression. So the Fed immediately reversed and said, oh, well, we really didn’t mean it and it wasn’t long after that, that they started bringing interest rates back down again. And so, they brought the punchbowl back to the party and, particularly when the pandemic hit, they decided to add more and more alcohol to it, to where right now, I think there’s a lot of participants on Wall Street investing like they’re a little bit inebriated, even as the PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditures price index), the Fed’s favorite inflation tool, goes way above their 2% target.<blockquote>吉姆·斯塔克：进入 2019 年，这次经济复苏已经是美国历史上持续时间最长的经济复苏之一。但美联储已经开始加息，股市也注意到了这一点，我们经历了大萧条以来最糟糕的12月。因此，美联储立即反悔，说，哦，好吧，我们真的不是这个意思，没过多久，他们又开始降低利率。因此，他们把潘趣酒带回了派对，尤其是在大流行病来袭的时候，他们决定在其中加入越来越多的酒精，现在，我认为华尔街有很多参与者都在投资，就像他们有点喝醉了一样，即使美联储最喜欢的通胀工具 PCE（个人消费支出价格指数）远远高于他们 2% 的目标。</blockquote> Gold:Where do you see inflation now, and how has the Fed policy affected that?<blockquote>黄金：您现在如何看待通货膨胀？美联储政策对此有何影响？</blockquote> Stack:We’re reemerging from a pandemic where everything was shut down and all of a sudden there’s a very strong demand and a very poor supply chain. And those kinds of pressures the Fed has been arguing can be transitory. The problem is that a lot of the inflation pressures we’re seeing today are not transitory. [The Fed could not get the PCE] above 2%, except for several months, all the way from 2009 until this year, but all of a sudden, it’s gone right through the 2% threshold, up to 3.1%. I think it just recently hit 3.5%, and I think it’s also a lot stickier. The Atlanta Fed has come out with what they call a Sticky Price Consumer Price Index, and it includes goods and services that don’t change in price very often. But when they do change, they continue to increase. These would be things like medical care, car insurance or alcoholic beverages. And this Sticky Price CPI has moved up to the highest level in 30 years. The Fed is going to get higher inflation. And I think the prices over the coming months are going to be on the upside. And that’s where we could see trouble in a stock market that has become one of the most interest-rate-sensitive markets in history.<blockquote>堆栈：我们正在从大流行病中重新崛起，在大流行病中，一切都被关闭了，突然之间，需求非常强劲，供应链却非常糟糕。美联储一直认为的这些压力可能是暂时的。问题是，我们今天看到的很多通胀压力都不是暂时的。从 2009 年到今年，除了几个月的时间外，[美联储无法让 PCE] 超过 2%，但突然间，它就直接突破了 2% 的门槛，达到了 3.1%。我认为它最近刚刚达到 3.5%，而且我认为它的粘性也更强。亚特兰大联储发布了他们看涨期权的粘性价格消费者价格指数，其中包括价格变化不大的商品和服务。但是当它们确实改变时，它们会继续增加。这些包括医疗保健、汽车保险或酒精饮料。而这种粘性的价格CPI已经升至30年来的最高水平。美联储将面临更高的通胀。我认为未来几个月的价格将会上涨。这就是我们在股市中看到麻烦的地方，因为股市已成为历史上对利率最敏感的市场之一。</blockquote> Gold:The bond market is not showing much fear of inflation. We’ve seen the 10-year Treasury note for the last few weeks yielding between 1.45% and maybe a little over 1.5% and it peaked at around 1.76%. (It yielded 1.30% on Thursday.) So are bond investors wrong about this? Is it wishful thinking that they really can’t see inflation coming?<blockquote>黄金：债券市场并没有表现出太多对通货膨胀的担忧。过去几周，我们看到 10 年期国库券的收益率在 1.45% 之间，可能略高于 1.5%，最高收益率约为 1.76%。（周四收益率为1.30%。）那么债券投资者对此有错吗？认为他们真的看不到通货膨胀的到来是一厢情愿的想法吗？</blockquote> Stack:I don’t think I’d call it wishful thinking; I’d call it perhaps misplaced trust in the Fed, [which] has been trying to talk down inflation, trying to convince everyone that this is going to be transitory. And in the Fed meeting a couple of weeks ago, it was widely thought, they’re going to acknowledge that we are seeing some upside surprises on inflation, and they’re going to start at least putting a cap on the punchbowl and maybe stop the bond purchases. Instead, the Fed reiterated, we’re going to keep adding to that punchbowl out of conviction that this inflation was transitory.<blockquote>堆栈：我不认为我会一厢情愿地看涨期权；我认为，这可能是对美联储的信任错位了，[美联储]一直在试图降低通胀，试图让所有人相信这将是暂时的。在几周前的美联储会议上，人们普遍认为，他们将承认我们正在看到一些通胀上行的意外，他们将至少开始给潘趣酒碗设置上限，也许会停止购买债券。相反，美联储重申，我们将继续在这个潘趣酒碗里添油加醋，因为我们确信这次通胀是暂时的。</blockquote> And I think from our experience back in the 1970s, you have to live through those big inflationary cycles to find out how wrong or how far behind the curve the Fed can be. That’s my concern today: The Fed is being very convincing and I think that’s what brought the bond yields down since that Fed meeting several weeks ago. I wouldn’t be surprised if inflation is sticky, if we see upside surprises and if we see particularly strong employment reports, I wouldn’t be surprised to see 10-year bond yields go back up and start pushing toward that 2% threshold.<blockquote>我认为，根据我们 20 世纪 70 年代的经验，你必须经历那些大通胀周期，才能发现美联储的错误程度或落后曲线多远。这就是我今天所担心的： 美联储的表现非常令人信服，我认为这就是自几周前美联储会议以来债券收益率下降的原因。如果通胀有粘性，如果我们看到上行的意外，如果我们看到特别强劲的就业报告，我不会感到惊讶，如果看到 10 年期债券收益率回升并开始向 2% 的门槛迈进，我也不会感到惊讶。</blockquote> Gold:How do you separate transitory price increases from sticky ones?<blockquote>黄金：如何区分暂时性价格上涨和粘性价格上涨？</blockquote> Stack:Housing costs and prices make up almost 40% of the CPI, and about half of that comes from owners’ equivalent rent [the amount of&nbsp;rent&nbsp;that&nbsp;would&nbsp;have to be paid if an owner’s house were a rental property], which typically will track the price of housing. And we have seen one of the greatest increases in housing prices nationally over the past 12 months, at least going back to the high inflation period of the ’70s. Rent follows those prices and that means that if anything, those numbers going into the owner’s equivalent rent and subsequently going into the CPI are going to surprise to the upside.<blockquote>堆栈：住房成本和价格几乎占 CPI 的 40%，其中约一半来自业主等值租金（如果业主的房屋是出租房产，则必须支付的租金金额），这通常会跟踪房价。在过去的 12 个月里，我们看到了全国房价涨幅最大的一次，至少可以追溯到 70 年代的高通胀时期。租金跟随这些价格，这意味着，如果说有什么不同的话，那就是这些计入业主等值租金以及随后计入 CPI 的数字将会出人意料地上涨。</blockquote> In 2005, we invented our Housing Bellwether Barometer, that told us we’re in a housing bubble because housing prices were 35% above the long-term inflationary trend. And sure enough, we were, and housing prices came down to, and actually a little under, that long-term inflation or CPI index. Well, today we’re over 43% above it. In other words, we have more of an upside disparity between housing prices and long-term inflation than we did in the housing bubble in 2005.<blockquote>2005 年，我们发明了住房风向标晴雨表，它告诉我们，我们正处于住房泡沫之中，因为房价比长期通胀趋势高出 35%。果然，我们做到了，房价降至长期通胀或CPI指数，实际上略低于长期通胀或CPI指数。今天我们比它高出 43% 以上。换句话说，与2005年的房地产泡沫相比，我们的房价和长期通胀之间的上行差异更大。</blockquote> Gold:I interviewed the chief economist of Redfin who pointed out that thesupply of homes is very, very lowbecause older people are staying in their homes while you have pent-up demand from millennials who are now reaching home-buying age at the same time people are migrating out of cities following the pandemic. Are there special circumstances here?<blockquote>黄金：我采访了Redfin的首席经济学家，他指出，住房供应量非常非常低，因为老年人呆在家里，而千禧一代的需求被压抑，他们现在已经达到了购房年龄，与此同时，人们正在迁出疫情之后的城市。这里有什么特殊情况吗？</blockquote> Stack:You’re obviously seeing an influx of demand. We live in the Flathead Valley in Northwest Montana, and our housing prices have gone ballistic. And it seems that everyone’s quitting their job to become a realtor.<blockquote>堆栈：你显然看到了需求的涌入。我们住在蒙大拿州西北部的平头谷，我们的房价一路飙升。似乎每个人都在辞职去做房地产经纪人。</blockquote> Gold:That’s an indicator for you!<blockquote>黄金：这是给你的一个指标!</blockquote> Stack:It brings back all the memories of 2005-2006.<blockquote>堆栈：它勾起了2005-2006年的所有记忆。</blockquote> Gold:Are there bidding wars and all-cash offers in your neck of the woods, too?<blockquote>黄金：你所在的地区也有竞价战和全现金报价吗？</blockquote> Stack:Very much so. You’re seeing multiple offers above the asking price and that’s happening in many high-demand areas of the country where people will want to move or own a second home.<blockquote>堆栈：非常如此。你会看到多个高于要价的报价，这种情况发生在全国许多高需求地区，人们都想搬家或拥有第二套住房。</blockquote> When you end up with a speculative psychology, it tends to spill over into multiple asset classes, not just stock market valuations, where they are above the 90th or 95th percentile by most historical measures. Stocks are very, very expensive, historically speaking, but we’re seeing it in real estate, of course, we’ve seen it in cryptocurrencies, like bitcoinBTCUSD,0.26%shot up to $60,000 and now is struggling to stay above $30,000<blockquote>当你最终产生投机心理时，它往往会蔓延到多种资产类别，而不仅仅是股市估值，根据大多数历史指标，股市估值都高于第 90 或 95 百分位数。从历史上看，股票非常非常昂贵，但我们在房地产中看到了这一点，当然，我们在加密货币中也看到了这一点，比如比特币BTCUSD，0.26%飙升至6万美元，现在正在努力保持在3万美元以上。</blockquote> We’ve developed several tools over the years to try to tackle or track that psychology. Recently, we invented our Canary in the Coal Mine index. It’s comprised of 20 of the most notable targets of speculation that have gone parabolic since the pandemic low. If you track the peaks in that speculation and see when that washes out, you’re going to have a handle on when the trouble is going to start permeating into the rest of the market.<blockquote>多年来，我们开发了几种工具来试图解决或跟踪这种心理。最近，我们在煤矿指数中发明了我们的金丝雀。它由 20 个最引人注目的投机目标组成，这些目标自大流行病低点以来一直呈抛物线状。如果你追踪投机的高峰，看看什么时候会消退，你就能知道麻烦何时会开始蔓延到市场的其他部分。</blockquote> Gold:Where do you see the most speculative excess now?<blockquote>黄金：你认为现在哪里投机性过剩最多？</blockquote> Stack:Today, I think [speculative excess] is spilling over into all of the new IPOs, the SPACs (special purpose acquisition companies). We’re raising money and we don’t know what we’re going to do with it, but we’re going to buy something that makes money. And then we’ve got the new NFTs, non-fungible tokens, digital art — I don’t know if I can even describe adequately what it is other than the fact that it’s not really a physical asset. It is a digital image that you own, but everyone else has a right to see, use and everything. I’ll tell you, it’s so extreme, it’s almost nonsensical. But it’s not unusual. From what we saw in the late 1990s, when companies could go public and had never made a penny, we’re starting to see a lot of that today in the meme stocks [so popular with the] new young traders.<blockquote>堆栈：今天，我认为[投机过剩]正在蔓延到所有新的IPO，即SPAC（特殊目的收购公司）。我们正在筹集资金，我们不知道该怎么处理，但我们要买一些能赚钱的东西。还有新的 NFT、不可替代的代币、数字艺术--除了它并不是一种真正的实物资产之外，我甚至不知道我是否还能充分描述它是什么。这是你拥有的数字图像，但其他人都有权看到、使用和拥有一切。我告诉你，这太极端了，几乎是荒谬的。但这并不罕见。从我们在 20 世纪 90 年代末看到的情况来看，当时公司可以上市，却从未赚到一分钱，如今我们开始在 [深受]年轻交易者欢迎的 meme 股票中看到很多这种情况。</blockquote> You learn a couple of things as you go through these speculative excesses. Number one, bubbles can never be definitively guaranteed or identified until afterward. The second thing is that the bubble is invisible to those inside the bubble. In other words, don’t go to someone investing in NFTs and try to tell them that they’re speculating in a bubble that could be almost worthless by the time it washes out, because you’re going to get in an argument that you can’t win except in the aftermath.<blockquote>当你经历这些投机过度时，你会学到一些东西。第一，在事后之前，泡沫永远无法得到明确的保证或识别。第二件事是，泡沫对泡沫内部的人来说是看不见的。换句话说，不要去找投资 NFT 的人，试图告诉他们，他们是在一个泡沫中进行投机，而泡沫在泡沫破灭时可能几乎一文不值，因为你会陷入一场只有在事后才能赢的争论。</blockquote> Gold:You’re talking about a possibility of both inflation and some big selloff in highly overvalued asset classes. That’s a tough market environment, so where do you think people should put their money and not put their money now?<blockquote>黄金：你说的是通货膨胀和高估值资产类别大幅抛售的可能性。这是一个艰难的市场环境，所以你认为人们应该把钱放在哪里，而不是现在？</blockquote> Stack:We are in one of the most overvalued markets in history and one of the most speculative excess periods in history, so you don’t have to be fully invested today. For our portfolio, we are short-term constructive on the market because we’re giving it the benefit of doubt, but we’re still carrying a 20% cash reserve just because it allows us to sleep at night. If you’re going to invest in today’s market, don’t go out buying the SPACs or the stocks that have infinite PE ratios, because they have yet to make earnings. I would put higher allocations into those sectors that are going to benefit from, or at least be resilient to, increasing inflation. If inflation is sticky, if it stays higher, if we do see interest rates start to rise in terms of normalizing, then you want to be in sectors like the energy sector.<blockquote>堆栈：我们正处于历史上估值最高的市场之一，也是历史上投机性最强的过度时期之一，因此您今天不必全额投资。就我们的投资组合而言，我们在短期内对市场持建设性态度，因为我们对市场持怀疑态度，但我们仍然持有 20% 的现金储备，只是因为它能让我们晚上睡个好觉。如果你打算投资今天的市场，不要出去购买 SPAC 或市盈率无限的股票，因为它们还没有盈利。我会向那些将从通胀上升中受益或至少对通胀上升具有弹性的行业增加拨款。如果通胀具有粘性，如果通胀保持在较高水平，如果我们确实看到利率在正常化方面开始上升，那么你希望进入能源行业等行业。</blockquote> Now for purposes of disclosure, we do own these stocks in our clients’ accounts at Stack Financial Management. ConocoPhillips&nbsp;is one of the world’s largest independent exploration and production companies, and oil prices&nbsp;are over $70 a barrel. I wouldn’t be surprised to see them continue to move higher through the year. The materials sector can benefit from rising commodity prices, and I think a company like Eastman Chemical&nbsp;will do very well, and it pays a 2.4% dividend yield.<blockquote>现在，为了披露起见，我们确实在客户在 Stack Financial Management 的账户中拥有这些股票。康菲石油公司是世界上最大的独立勘探和生产公司之一，油价超过每桶 70 美元。如果他们在这一年中继续走高，我不会感到惊讶。材料行业可以受益于大宗商品价格上涨，我认为像伊士曼化学这样的公司会做得很好，而且它支付2.4%的股息收益率。</blockquote> In the health-care sector, one of the stocks we’re holding is United&nbsp;Health Group&nbsp;and carries a trailing P/E of only 23 times still pays a couple percent dividends, which is higher than the 10-year Treasury bond yield&nbsp;.<blockquote>在医疗保健领域，我们持有的股票之一是联合健康集团（United Health Group），其历史市盈率仅为 23 倍，但仍支付百分之几的股息，高于 10 年期国债收益率。</blockquote> Gold:Obviously there are plenty of ETFs in these sectors — you said materials, energy — any others that you like or that you would avoid?<blockquote>黄金：显然，这些行业中有很多 ETF——你说的是材料、能源——还有你喜欢或会避免的其他行业吗？</blockquote> Stack:If you’re going to invest in ETFs, you can look at energy, materials or health care or, on the defensive side, consumer staples. They’re out of favor right now, but they’re carrying some of the better valuations in this market. Value is what you want to be going for because we’ve seen a great divergence between growth and value, and growth has led the way out of the pandemic, but it’s also carrying some of the highest extreme valuations in the market. And when the Fed does decide to start taking the punchbowl away, that’s where the pains can be felt the greatest. So, again, think safety first, and walk softly and carry a comfortable cash reserve.<blockquote>堆栈：如果您打算投资 ETF，可以关注能源、材料或医疗保健，或者从防御性角度来看，可以关注必需消费品。它们现在不受欢迎，但在这个市场上，它们的估值较高。价值是你想要追求的，因为我们已经看到增长和价值之间的巨大背离，增长引领了大流行病的走出，但它也承载着市场上最高的极端估值。当美联储决定开始拿走潘趣酒碗时，那才是最大的痛苦。所以，还是那句话，安全第一，轻轻地走路，携带舒适的现金储备。</blockquote>","source":"market_watch","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>‘You don’t have to be fully invested’ in the stock market today amid excess and speculation, says veteran investor Jim Stack<blockquote>资深投资者吉姆-斯塔克（Jim Stack）表示，在过度和投机的情况下，今天的股市“不必完全投资”。</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n‘You don’t have to be fully invested’ in the stock market today amid excess and speculation, says veteran investor Jim Stack<blockquote>资深投资者吉姆-斯塔克（Jim Stack）表示，在过度和投机的情况下，今天的股市“不必完全投资”。</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nMarketwatch2021-07-09 15:05\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nSince he called the 1987 stock market crash as a young analyst, Jim Stack has been one of the leading market contrarians.<blockquote>自从作为一名年轻分析师预测 1987 年股市崩盘以来，吉姆·斯塔克 (Jim Stack) 一直是领先的市场逆向投资者之一。</blockquote> Based in Whitefish, Montana, he pursues a “safety-first” approach in his Investech Research newsletter and in his money-management firm, Stack Financial Management, which manage $1.5 billion in assets. Stack has also been featured in Barron’s list of top investment advisers.<blockquote>他常驻蒙大拿州怀特菲什，在他的 Investech 研究通讯和管理 15 亿美元资产的资金管理公司 Stack Financial Management 中奉行 “安全第一 ”的方针。Stack 还入选了《巴伦周刊》顶级投资顾问名单。</blockquote> When I interviewed him late last week, he was worried Wall Street wasn’t paying enough attention to the many speculative excesses in the markets and the Federal Reserve was too complacent on inflation.<blockquote>上周末我采访他时，他担心华尔街对市场上的许多过度投机行为关注不够，美联储对通胀过于自满。</blockquote> Howard Gold:In your latest issue of Investech Research, you said the Federal Reserve reversed its hawkish stance and started unwinding its interest rate hikes out of fear back in December 2018. Could you tell us how that may have set the stage for some of the things that have happened since?<blockquote>霍华德·戈尔德：在最新一期的 Investech Research 中，您表示美联储在 2018 年 12 月扭转了鹰派立场，并出于恐惧开始放松加息。你能告诉我们这可能是如何为此后发生的一些事情奠定基础的吗？</blockquote> Jim Stack:As we’re going into 2019, this economic recovery was already one of the longest economic recoveries in U.S. history. But the Fed had started raising interest rates, and the stock market took notice, and we had the worst December since the Great Depression. So the Fed immediately reversed and said, oh, well, we really didn’t mean it and it wasn’t long after that, that they started bringing interest rates back down again. And so, they brought the punchbowl back to the party and, particularly when the pandemic hit, they decided to add more and more alcohol to it, to where right now, I think there’s a lot of participants on Wall Street investing like they’re a little bit inebriated, even as the PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditures price index), the Fed’s favorite inflation tool, goes way above their 2% target.<blockquote>吉姆·斯塔克：进入 2019 年，这次经济复苏已经是美国历史上持续时间最长的经济复苏之一。但美联储已经开始加息，股市也注意到了这一点，我们经历了大萧条以来最糟糕的12月。因此，美联储立即反悔，说，哦，好吧，我们真的不是这个意思，没过多久，他们又开始降低利率。因此，他们把潘趣酒带回了派对，尤其是在大流行病来袭的时候，他们决定在其中加入越来越多的酒精，现在，我认为华尔街有很多参与者都在投资，就像他们有点喝醉了一样，即使美联储最喜欢的通胀工具 PCE（个人消费支出价格指数）远远高于他们 2% 的目标。</blockquote> Gold:Where do you see inflation now, and how has the Fed policy affected that?<blockquote>黄金：您现在如何看待通货膨胀？美联储政策对此有何影响？</blockquote> Stack:We’re reemerging from a pandemic where everything was shut down and all of a sudden there’s a very strong demand and a very poor supply chain. And those kinds of pressures the Fed has been arguing can be transitory. The problem is that a lot of the inflation pressures we’re seeing today are not transitory. [The Fed could not get the PCE] above 2%, except for several months, all the way from 2009 until this year, but all of a sudden, it’s gone right through the 2% threshold, up to 3.1%. I think it just recently hit 3.5%, and I think it’s also a lot stickier. The Atlanta Fed has come out with what they call a Sticky Price Consumer Price Index, and it includes goods and services that don’t change in price very often. But when they do change, they continue to increase. These would be things like medical care, car insurance or alcoholic beverages. And this Sticky Price CPI has moved up to the highest level in 30 years. The Fed is going to get higher inflation. And I think the prices over the coming months are going to be on the upside. And that’s where we could see trouble in a stock market that has become one of the most interest-rate-sensitive markets in history.<blockquote>堆栈：我们正在从大流行病中重新崛起，在大流行病中，一切都被关闭了，突然之间，需求非常强劲，供应链却非常糟糕。美联储一直认为的这些压力可能是暂时的。问题是，我们今天看到的很多通胀压力都不是暂时的。从 2009 年到今年，除了几个月的时间外，[美联储无法让 PCE] 超过 2%，但突然间，它就直接突破了 2% 的门槛，达到了 3.1%。我认为它最近刚刚达到 3.5%，而且我认为它的粘性也更强。亚特兰大联储发布了他们看涨期权的粘性价格消费者价格指数，其中包括价格变化不大的商品和服务。但是当它们确实改变时，它们会继续增加。这些包括医疗保健、汽车保险或酒精饮料。而这种粘性的价格CPI已经升至30年来的最高水平。美联储将面临更高的通胀。我认为未来几个月的价格将会上涨。这就是我们在股市中看到麻烦的地方，因为股市已成为历史上对利率最敏感的市场之一。</blockquote> Gold:The bond market is not showing much fear of inflation. We’ve seen the 10-year Treasury note for the last few weeks yielding between 1.45% and maybe a little over 1.5% and it peaked at around 1.76%. (It yielded 1.30% on Thursday.) So are bond investors wrong about this? Is it wishful thinking that they really can’t see inflation coming?<blockquote>黄金：债券市场并没有表现出太多对通货膨胀的担忧。过去几周，我们看到 10 年期国库券的收益率在 1.45% 之间，可能略高于 1.5%，最高收益率约为 1.76%。（周四收益率为1.30%。）那么债券投资者对此有错吗？认为他们真的看不到通货膨胀的到来是一厢情愿的想法吗？</blockquote> Stack:I don’t think I’d call it wishful thinking; I’d call it perhaps misplaced trust in the Fed, [which] has been trying to talk down inflation, trying to convince everyone that this is going to be transitory. And in the Fed meeting a couple of weeks ago, it was widely thought, they’re going to acknowledge that we are seeing some upside surprises on inflation, and they’re going to start at least putting a cap on the punchbowl and maybe stop the bond purchases. Instead, the Fed reiterated, we’re going to keep adding to that punchbowl out of conviction that this inflation was transitory.<blockquote>堆栈：我不认为我会一厢情愿地看涨期权；我认为，这可能是对美联储的信任错位了，[美联储]一直在试图降低通胀，试图让所有人相信这将是暂时的。在几周前的美联储会议上，人们普遍认为，他们将承认我们正在看到一些通胀上行的意外，他们将至少开始给潘趣酒碗设置上限，也许会停止购买债券。相反，美联储重申，我们将继续在这个潘趣酒碗里添油加醋，因为我们确信这次通胀是暂时的。</blockquote> And I think from our experience back in the 1970s, you have to live through those big inflationary cycles to find out how wrong or how far behind the curve the Fed can be. That’s my concern today: The Fed is being very convincing and I think that’s what brought the bond yields down since that Fed meeting several weeks ago. I wouldn’t be surprised if inflation is sticky, if we see upside surprises and if we see particularly strong employment reports, I wouldn’t be surprised to see 10-year bond yields go back up and start pushing toward that 2% threshold.<blockquote>我认为，根据我们 20 世纪 70 年代的经验，你必须经历那些大通胀周期，才能发现美联储的错误程度或落后曲线多远。这就是我今天所担心的： 美联储的表现非常令人信服，我认为这就是自几周前美联储会议以来债券收益率下降的原因。如果通胀有粘性，如果我们看到上行的意外，如果我们看到特别强劲的就业报告，我不会感到惊讶，如果看到 10 年期债券收益率回升并开始向 2% 的门槛迈进，我也不会感到惊讶。</blockquote> Gold:How do you separate transitory price increases from sticky ones?<blockquote>黄金：如何区分暂时性价格上涨和粘性价格上涨？</blockquote> Stack:Housing costs and prices make up almost 40% of the CPI, and about half of that comes from owners’ equivalent rent [the amount of&nbsp;rent&nbsp;that&nbsp;would&nbsp;have to be paid if an owner’s house were a rental property], which typically will track the price of housing. And we have seen one of the greatest increases in housing prices nationally over the past 12 months, at least going back to the high inflation period of the ’70s. Rent follows those prices and that means that if anything, those numbers going into the owner’s equivalent rent and subsequently going into the CPI are going to surprise to the upside.<blockquote>堆栈：住房成本和价格几乎占 CPI 的 40%，其中约一半来自业主等值租金（如果业主的房屋是出租房产，则必须支付的租金金额），这通常会跟踪房价。在过去的 12 个月里，我们看到了全国房价涨幅最大的一次，至少可以追溯到 70 年代的高通胀时期。租金跟随这些价格，这意味着，如果说有什么不同的话，那就是这些计入业主等值租金以及随后计入 CPI 的数字将会出人意料地上涨。</blockquote> In 2005, we invented our Housing Bellwether Barometer, that told us we’re in a housing bubble because housing prices were 35% above the long-term inflationary trend. And sure enough, we were, and housing prices came down to, and actually a little under, that long-term inflation or CPI index. Well, today we’re over 43% above it. In other words, we have more of an upside disparity between housing prices and long-term inflation than we did in the housing bubble in 2005.<blockquote>2005 年，我们发明了住房风向标晴雨表，它告诉我们，我们正处于住房泡沫之中，因为房价比长期通胀趋势高出 35%。果然，我们做到了，房价降至长期通胀或CPI指数，实际上略低于长期通胀或CPI指数。今天我们比它高出 43% 以上。换句话说，与2005年的房地产泡沫相比，我们的房价和长期通胀之间的上行差异更大。</blockquote> Gold:I interviewed the chief economist of Redfin who pointed out that thesupply of homes is very, very lowbecause older people are staying in their homes while you have pent-up demand from millennials who are now reaching home-buying age at the same time people are migrating out of cities following the pandemic. Are there special circumstances here?<blockquote>黄金：我采访了Redfin的首席经济学家，他指出，住房供应量非常非常低，因为老年人呆在家里，而千禧一代的需求被压抑，他们现在已经达到了购房年龄，与此同时，人们正在迁出疫情之后的城市。这里有什么特殊情况吗？</blockquote> Stack:You’re obviously seeing an influx of demand. We live in the Flathead Valley in Northwest Montana, and our housing prices have gone ballistic. And it seems that everyone’s quitting their job to become a realtor.<blockquote>堆栈：你显然看到了需求的涌入。我们住在蒙大拿州西北部的平头谷，我们的房价一路飙升。似乎每个人都在辞职去做房地产经纪人。</blockquote> Gold:That’s an indicator for you!<blockquote>黄金：这是给你的一个指标!</blockquote> Stack:It brings back all the memories of 2005-2006.<blockquote>堆栈：它勾起了2005-2006年的所有记忆。</blockquote> Gold:Are there bidding wars and all-cash offers in your neck of the woods, too?<blockquote>黄金：你所在的地区也有竞价战和全现金报价吗？</blockquote> Stack:Very much so. You’re seeing multiple offers above the asking price and that’s happening in many high-demand areas of the country where people will want to move or own a second home.<blockquote>堆栈：非常如此。你会看到多个高于要价的报价，这种情况发生在全国许多高需求地区，人们都想搬家或拥有第二套住房。</blockquote> When you end up with a speculative psychology, it tends to spill over into multiple asset classes, not just stock market valuations, where they are above the 90th or 95th percentile by most historical measures. Stocks are very, very expensive, historically speaking, but we’re seeing it in real estate, of course, we’ve seen it in cryptocurrencies, like bitcoinBTCUSD,0.26%shot up to $60,000 and now is struggling to stay above $30,000<blockquote>当你最终产生投机心理时，它往往会蔓延到多种资产类别，而不仅仅是股市估值，根据大多数历史指标，股市估值都高于第 90 或 95 百分位数。从历史上看，股票非常非常昂贵，但我们在房地产中看到了这一点，当然，我们在加密货币中也看到了这一点，比如比特币BTCUSD，0.26%飙升至6万美元，现在正在努力保持在3万美元以上。</blockquote> We’ve developed several tools over the years to try to tackle or track that psychology. Recently, we invented our Canary in the Coal Mine index. It’s comprised of 20 of the most notable targets of speculation that have gone parabolic since the pandemic low. If you track the peaks in that speculation and see when that washes out, you’re going to have a handle on when the trouble is going to start permeating into the rest of the market.<blockquote>多年来，我们开发了几种工具来试图解决或跟踪这种心理。最近，我们在煤矿指数中发明了我们的金丝雀。它由 20 个最引人注目的投机目标组成，这些目标自大流行病低点以来一直呈抛物线状。如果你追踪投机的高峰，看看什么时候会消退，你就能知道麻烦何时会开始蔓延到市场的其他部分。</blockquote> Gold:Where do you see the most speculative excess now?<blockquote>黄金：你认为现在哪里投机性过剩最多？</blockquote> Stack:Today, I think [speculative excess] is spilling over into all of the new IPOs, the SPACs (special purpose acquisition companies). We’re raising money and we don’t know what we’re going to do with it, but we’re going to buy something that makes money. And then we’ve got the new NFTs, non-fungible tokens, digital art — I don’t know if I can even describe adequately what it is other than the fact that it’s not really a physical asset. It is a digital image that you own, but everyone else has a right to see, use and everything. I’ll tell you, it’s so extreme, it’s almost nonsensical. But it’s not unusual. From what we saw in the late 1990s, when companies could go public and had never made a penny, we’re starting to see a lot of that today in the meme stocks [so popular with the] new young traders.<blockquote>堆栈：今天，我认为[投机过剩]正在蔓延到所有新的IPO，即SPAC（特殊目的收购公司）。我们正在筹集资金，我们不知道该怎么处理，但我们要买一些能赚钱的东西。还有新的 NFT、不可替代的代币、数字艺术--除了它并不是一种真正的实物资产之外，我甚至不知道我是否还能充分描述它是什么。这是你拥有的数字图像，但其他人都有权看到、使用和拥有一切。我告诉你，这太极端了，几乎是荒谬的。但这并不罕见。从我们在 20 世纪 90 年代末看到的情况来看，当时公司可以上市，却从未赚到一分钱，如今我们开始在 [深受]年轻交易者欢迎的 meme 股票中看到很多这种情况。</blockquote> You learn a couple of things as you go through these speculative excesses. Number one, bubbles can never be definitively guaranteed or identified until afterward. The second thing is that the bubble is invisible to those inside the bubble. In other words, don’t go to someone investing in NFTs and try to tell them that they’re speculating in a bubble that could be almost worthless by the time it washes out, because you’re going to get in an argument that you can’t win except in the aftermath.<blockquote>当你经历这些投机过度时，你会学到一些东西。第一，在事后之前，泡沫永远无法得到明确的保证或识别。第二件事是，泡沫对泡沫内部的人来说是看不见的。换句话说，不要去找投资 NFT 的人，试图告诉他们，他们是在一个泡沫中进行投机，而泡沫在泡沫破灭时可能几乎一文不值，因为你会陷入一场只有在事后才能赢的争论。</blockquote> Gold:You’re talking about a possibility of both inflation and some big selloff in highly overvalued asset classes. That’s a tough market environment, so where do you think people should put their money and not put their money now?<blockquote>黄金：你说的是通货膨胀和高估值资产类别大幅抛售的可能性。这是一个艰难的市场环境，所以你认为人们应该把钱放在哪里，而不是现在？</blockquote> Stack:We are in one of the most overvalued markets in history and one of the most speculative excess periods in history, so you don’t have to be fully invested today. For our portfolio, we are short-term constructive on the market because we’re giving it the benefit of doubt, but we’re still carrying a 20% cash reserve just because it allows us to sleep at night. If you’re going to invest in today’s market, don’t go out buying the SPACs or the stocks that have infinite PE ratios, because they have yet to make earnings. I would put higher allocations into those sectors that are going to benefit from, or at least be resilient to, increasing inflation. If inflation is sticky, if it stays higher, if we do see interest rates start to rise in terms of normalizing, then you want to be in sectors like the energy sector.<blockquote>堆栈：我们正处于历史上估值最高的市场之一，也是历史上投机性最强的过度时期之一，因此您今天不必全额投资。就我们的投资组合而言，我们在短期内对市场持建设性态度，因为我们对市场持怀疑态度，但我们仍然持有 20% 的现金储备，只是因为它能让我们晚上睡个好觉。如果你打算投资今天的市场，不要出去购买 SPAC 或市盈率无限的股票，因为它们还没有盈利。我会向那些将从通胀上升中受益或至少对通胀上升具有弹性的行业增加拨款。如果通胀具有粘性，如果通胀保持在较高水平，如果我们确实看到利率在正常化方面开始上升，那么你希望进入能源行业等行业。</blockquote> Now for purposes of disclosure, we do own these stocks in our clients’ accounts at Stack Financial Management. ConocoPhillips&nbsp;is one of the world’s largest independent exploration and production companies, and oil prices&nbsp;are over $70 a barrel. I wouldn’t be surprised to see them continue to move higher through the year. The materials sector can benefit from rising commodity prices, and I think a company like Eastman Chemical&nbsp;will do very well, and it pays a 2.4% dividend yield.<blockquote>现在，为了披露起见，我们确实在客户在 Stack Financial Management 的账户中拥有这些股票。康菲石油公司是世界上最大的独立勘探和生产公司之一，油价超过每桶 70 美元。如果他们在这一年中继续走高，我不会感到惊讶。材料行业可以受益于大宗商品价格上涨，我认为像伊士曼化学这样的公司会做得很好，而且它支付2.4%的股息收益率。</blockquote> In the health-care sector, one of the stocks we’re holding is United&nbsp;Health Group&nbsp;and carries a trailing P/E of only 23 times still pays a couple percent dividends, which is higher than the 10-year Treasury bond yield&nbsp;.<blockquote>在医疗保健领域，我们持有的股票之一是联合健康集团（United Health Group），其历史市盈率仅为 23 倍，但仍支付百分之几的股息，高于 10 年期国债收益率。</blockquote> Gold:Obviously there are plenty of ETFs in these sectors — you said materials, energy — any others that you like or that you would avoid?<blockquote>黄金：显然，这些行业中有很多 ETF——你说的是材料、能源——还有你喜欢或会避免的其他行业吗？</blockquote> Stack:If you’re going to invest in ETFs, you can look at energy, materials or health care or, on the defensive side, consumer staples. They’re out of favor right now, but they’re carrying some of the better valuations in this market. Value is what you want to be going for because we’ve seen a great divergence between growth and value, and growth has led the way out of the pandemic, but it’s also carrying some of the highest extreme valuations in the market. And when the Fed does decide to start taking the punchbowl away, that’s where the pains can be felt the greatest. So, again, think safety first, and walk softly and carry a comfortable cash reserve.<blockquote>堆栈：如果您打算投资 ETF，可以关注能源、材料或医疗保健，或者从防御性角度来看，可以关注必需消费品。它们现在不受欢迎，但在这个市场上，它们的估值较高。价值是你想要追求的，因为我们已经看到增长和价值之间的巨大背离，增长引领了大流行病的走出，但它也承载着市场上最高的极端估值。当美联储决定开始拿走潘趣酒碗时，那才是最大的痛苦。所以，还是那句话，安全第一，轻轻地走路，携带舒适的现金储备。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/you-dont-have-to-be-fully-invested-in-the-stock-market-today-amid-excess-and-speculation-says-veteran-investor-jim-stack-11625761953?siteid=yhoof2\">Marketwatch</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"COP":"康菲石油","EMN":"伊士曼化工","UNH":"联合健康"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/you-dont-have-to-be-fully-invested-in-the-stock-market-today-amid-excess-and-speculation-says-veteran-investor-jim-stack-11625761953?siteid=yhoof2","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/599a65733b8245fcf7868668ef9ad712","article_id":"1143190074","content_text":"Since he called the 1987 stock market crash as a young analyst, Jim Stack has been one of the leading market contrarians.\nBased in Whitefish, Montana, he pursues a “safety-first” approach in his Investech Research newsletter and in his money-management firm, Stack Financial Management, which manage $1.5 billion in assets. Stack has also been featured in Barron’s list of top investment advisers.\nWhen I interviewed him late last week, he was worried Wall Street wasn’t paying enough attention to the many speculative excesses in the markets and the Federal Reserve was too complacent on inflation.\nHoward Gold:In your latest issue of Investech Research, you said the Federal Reserve reversed its hawkish stance and started unwinding its interest rate hikes out of fear back in December 2018. Could you tell us how that may have set the stage for some of the things that have happened since?\nJim Stack:As we’re going into 2019, this economic recovery was already one of the longest economic recoveries in U.S. history. But the Fed had started raising interest rates, and the stock market took notice, and we had the worst December since the Great Depression. So the Fed immediately reversed and said, oh, well, we really didn’t mean it and it wasn’t long after that, that they started bringing interest rates back down again. And so, they brought the punchbowl back to the party and, particularly when the pandemic hit, they decided to add more and more alcohol to it, to where right now, I think there’s a lot of participants on Wall Street investing like they’re a little bit inebriated, even as the PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditures price index), the Fed’s favorite inflation tool, goes way above their 2% target.\nGold:Where do you see inflation now, and how has the Fed policy affected that?\nStack:We’re reemerging from a pandemic where everything was shut down and all of a sudden there’s a very strong demand and a very poor supply chain. And those kinds of pressures the Fed has been arguing can be transitory. The problem is that a lot of the inflation pressures we’re seeing today are not transitory. [The Fed could not get the PCE] above 2%, except for several months, all the way from 2009 until this year, but all of a sudden, it’s gone right through the 2% threshold, up to 3.1%. I think it just recently hit 3.5%, and I think it’s also a lot stickier. The Atlanta Fed has come out with what they call a Sticky Price Consumer Price Index, and it includes goods and services that don’t change in price very often. But when they do change, they continue to increase. These would be things like medical care, car insurance or alcoholic beverages. And this Sticky Price CPI has moved up to the highest level in 30 years. The Fed is going to get higher inflation. And I think the prices over the coming months are going to be on the upside. And that’s where we could see trouble in a stock market that has become one of the most interest-rate-sensitive markets in history.\nGold:The bond market is not showing much fear of inflation. We’ve seen the 10-year Treasury note for the last few weeks yielding between 1.45% and maybe a little over 1.5% and it peaked at around 1.76%. (It yielded 1.30% on Thursday.) So are bond investors wrong about this? Is it wishful thinking that they really can’t see inflation coming?\nStack:I don’t think I’d call it wishful thinking; I’d call it perhaps misplaced trust in the Fed, [which] has been trying to talk down inflation, trying to convince everyone that this is going to be transitory. And in the Fed meeting a couple of weeks ago, it was widely thought, they’re going to acknowledge that we are seeing some upside surprises on inflation, and they’re going to start at least putting a cap on the punchbowl and maybe stop the bond purchases. Instead, the Fed reiterated, we’re going to keep adding to that punchbowl out of conviction that this inflation was transitory.\nAnd I think from our experience back in the 1970s, you have to live through those big inflationary cycles to find out how wrong or how far behind the curve the Fed can be. That’s my concern today: The Fed is being very convincing and I think that’s what brought the bond yields down since that Fed meeting several weeks ago. I wouldn’t be surprised if inflation is sticky, if we see upside surprises and if we see particularly strong employment reports, I wouldn’t be surprised to see 10-year bond yields go back up and start pushing toward that 2% threshold.\nGold:How do you separate transitory price increases from sticky ones?\nStack:Housing costs and prices make up almost 40% of the CPI, and about half of that comes from owners’ equivalent rent [the amount of rent that would have to be paid if an owner’s house were a rental property], which typically will track the price of housing. And we have seen one of the greatest increases in housing prices nationally over the past 12 months, at least going back to the high inflation period of the ’70s. Rent follows those prices and that means that if anything, those numbers going into the owner’s equivalent rent and subsequently going into the CPI are going to surprise to the upside.\nIn 2005, we invented our Housing Bellwether Barometer, that told us we’re in a housing bubble because housing prices were 35% above the long-term inflationary trend. And sure enough, we were, and housing prices came down to, and actually a little under, that long-term inflation or CPI index. Well, today we’re over 43% above it. In other words, we have more of an upside disparity between housing prices and long-term inflation than we did in the housing bubble in 2005.\nGold:I interviewed the chief economist of Redfin who pointed out that thesupply of homes is very, very lowbecause older people are staying in their homes while you have pent-up demand from millennials who are now reaching home-buying age at the same time people are migrating out of cities following the pandemic. Are there special circumstances here?\nStack:You’re obviously seeing an influx of demand. We live in the Flathead Valley in Northwest Montana, and our housing prices have gone ballistic. And it seems that everyone’s quitting their job to become a realtor.\nGold:That’s an indicator for you!\nStack:It brings back all the memories of 2005-2006.\nGold:Are there bidding wars and all-cash offers in your neck of the woods, too?\nStack:Very much so. You’re seeing multiple offers above the asking price and that’s happening in many high-demand areas of the country where people will want to move or own a second home.\nWhen you end up with a speculative psychology, it tends to spill over into multiple asset classes, not just stock market valuations, where they are above the 90th or 95th percentile by most historical measures. Stocks are very, very expensive, historically speaking, but we’re seeing it in real estate, of course, we’ve seen it in cryptocurrencies, like bitcoinBTCUSD,0.26%shot up to $60,000 and now is struggling to stay above $30,000\nWe’ve developed several tools over the years to try to tackle or track that psychology. Recently, we invented our Canary in the Coal Mine index. It’s comprised of 20 of the most notable targets of speculation that have gone parabolic since the pandemic low. If you track the peaks in that speculation and see when that washes out, you’re going to have a handle on when the trouble is going to start permeating into the rest of the market.\nGold:Where do you see the most speculative excess now?\nStack:Today, I think [speculative excess] is spilling over into all of the new IPOs, the SPACs (special purpose acquisition companies). We’re raising money and we don’t know what we’re going to do with it, but we’re going to buy something that makes money. And then we’ve got the new NFTs, non-fungible tokens, digital art — I don’t know if I can even describe adequately what it is other than the fact that it’s not really a physical asset. It is a digital image that you own, but everyone else has a right to see, use and everything. I’ll tell you, it’s so extreme, it’s almost nonsensical. But it’s not unusual. From what we saw in the late 1990s, when companies could go public and had never made a penny, we’re starting to see a lot of that today in the meme stocks [so popular with the] new young traders.\nYou learn a couple of things as you go through these speculative excesses. Number one, bubbles can never be definitively guaranteed or identified until afterward. The second thing is that the bubble is invisible to those inside the bubble. In other words, don’t go to someone investing in NFTs and try to tell them that they’re speculating in a bubble that could be almost worthless by the time it washes out, because you’re going to get in an argument that you can’t win except in the aftermath.\nGold:You’re talking about a possibility of both inflation and some big selloff in highly overvalued asset classes. That’s a tough market environment, so where do you think people should put their money and not put their money now?\nStack:We are in one of the most overvalued markets in history and one of the most speculative excess periods in history, so you don’t have to be fully invested today. For our portfolio, we are short-term constructive on the market because we’re giving it the benefit of doubt, but we’re still carrying a 20% cash reserve just because it allows us to sleep at night. If you’re going to invest in today’s market, don’t go out buying the SPACs or the stocks that have infinite PE ratios, because they have yet to make earnings. I would put higher allocations into those sectors that are going to benefit from, or at least be resilient to, increasing inflation. If inflation is sticky, if it stays higher, if we do see interest rates start to rise in terms of normalizing, then you want to be in sectors like the energy sector.\nNow for purposes of disclosure, we do own these stocks in our clients’ accounts at Stack Financial Management. ConocoPhillips is one of the world’s largest independent exploration and production companies, and oil prices are over $70 a barrel. I wouldn’t be surprised to see them continue to move higher through the year. The materials sector can benefit from rising commodity prices, and I think a company like Eastman Chemical will do very well, and it pays a 2.4% dividend yield.\nIn the health-care sector, one of the stocks we’re holding is United Health Group and carries a trailing P/E of only 23 times still pays a couple percent dividends, which is higher than the 10-year Treasury bond yield .\nGold:Obviously there are plenty of ETFs in these sectors — you said materials, energy — any others that you like or that you would avoid?\nStack:If you’re going to invest in ETFs, you can look at energy, materials or health care or, on the defensive side, consumer staples. They’re out of favor right now, but they’re carrying some of the better valuations in this market. Value is what you want to be going for because we’ve seen a great divergence between growth and value, and growth has led the way out of the pandemic, but it’s also carrying some of the highest extreme valuations in the market. And when the Fed does decide to start taking the punchbowl away, that’s where the pains can be felt the greatest. So, again, think safety first, and walk softly and carry a comfortable cash reserve.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"EMN":0.9,"UNH":0.9,"COP":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":757,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":5,"subscribersOnly":false,"subscribersOnlyAccessible":false,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/143793933"}