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2021-08-10

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2021-08-05

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Stocks open slightly higher after fall in jobless claims<blockquote>申请失业救济人数下降后股市小幅高开</blockquote>

2021-08-04

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2021-08-03

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2021-07-30

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2021-07-28

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2021-07-26

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2021-07-25

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Is IBM Stock Undervalued Or Overvalued? What To Consider<blockquote>IBM 股票被低估还是被高估？需要考虑什么</blockquote>

2021-07-24

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2021-07-23

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2021-07-22

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2021-07-16

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Why This Money Manager Says The Latest Round Of Inflation Is Permanent<blockquote>为什么这位基金经理说最新一轮通胀是永久性的</blockquote>

2021-07-16

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2021-07-14

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Compass Minerals shares rises 17% in early trading<blockquote>Compass Minerals 股价早盘上涨 17%</blockquote>

2021-07-09

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2021-07-09

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‘You don’t have to be fully invested’ in the stock market today amid excess and speculation, says veteran investor Jim Stack<blockquote>资深投资者吉姆-斯塔克（Jim Stack）表示，在过度和投机的情况下，今天的股市“不必完全投资”。</blockquote>

2021-07-09

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5 Blue Chip Stocks to Buy With Huge Dividends as Interest Rates Plunge<blockquote>利率暴跌时值得购买的 5 只巨额股息蓝筹股</blockquote>

2021-07-09

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2021-07-03

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or 0","content":"<p>(Aug 5)&nbsp;Stocks open slightly higher after fall in jobless claims.</p><p><blockquote>（8月5日）申请失业救济人数下降后，股市小幅开盘走高。</blockquote></p><p> Dow industrials up 94 points, or 0.3%.&nbsp;S&amp;P 500 up 0.3% at 4,414.12.&nbsp;Nasdaq Composite up less than 0.1% at 14,784.61.&nbsp;</p><p><blockquote>道琼斯工业平均指数上涨94点，或0.3%。标普500指数上涨0.3%，至4414.12点。纳斯达克综合指数上涨不到0.1%，至14784.61点。</blockquote></p><p> Fastly plunges over&nbsp;23% in morning trading&nbsp;after the company's downside Q3 and full-year guidance due to the widespread outage in June.</p><p><blockquote>由于 6 月份大范围停电，该公司第三季度和全年指引下调，早盘交易中Fastly暴跌超过 23%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/44fbcf9492918a352919cdff1fd27498\" tg-width=\"727\" tg-height=\"497\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> The moves in the stocks came after a mostly lower regular session on Wednesday. The Dow dropped more than 300 points, or 0.9%, and closed near its session low. The S&amp;P 500 slipped about 0.5%, while the Nasdaq Composite ticked up 0.1%.</p><p><blockquote>股市的波动是在周三常规交易大多走低之后发生的。道琼斯指数下跌超过300点，跌幅0.9%，收于盘中低点附近。标普500指数下跌约0.5%，而纳斯达克综合指数上涨0.1%。</blockquote></p><p> Weekly initial jobless claims came in at385,000 on Thursday,in-line with expectations. Recent earnings and economic data have been strong overall, but some economists worry economic growth and employment gains will taper from here.</p><p><blockquote>周四每周初请失业金人数为38.5万人，符合预期。最近的盈利和经济数据总体强劲，但一些经济学家担心经济增长和就业增长将从此逐渐减少。</blockquote></p><p> The jobless claims data was the last reading before the key July jobs report, which will be released on Friday morning. There is a wide range of estimates from economists and what the report will show, and some metrics for employment gains have disappointed despite a high level of reported job openings.</p><p><blockquote>申请失业救济人数数据是关键的 7 月份就业报告之前的最后读数，该报告将于周五上午发布。经济学家的估计和报告将显示的内容各不相同，尽管报告的职位空缺水平很高，但一些就业增长指标令人失望。</blockquote></p><p> \"Many factors are likely driving worker shortages; concerns about catching the virus, childcare responsibilities, skills mismatches, and generous unemployment insurance benefits,\" PNC Senior Economist Abbey Omodunbi said in an email. In the second half of the year, \"more competition for workers, particularly in the leisure and hospitality sector, will support acceleration in wage growth, boosting household incomes and consumer spending.\"</p><p><blockquote>PNC 高级经济学家阿比·奥莫敦比 (Abbey Omodonbi) 在一封电子邮件中表示：“许多因素可能导致工人短缺；对感染病毒的担忧、育儿责任、技能不匹配以及慷慨的失业保险福利。”下半年，“对工人的更多竞争，特别是在休闲和酒店业，将支持工资增长加速，增加家庭收入和消费者支出。”</blockquote></p><p> The results of an ADP private payroll survey released Wednesday showed again of 330,000 jobs for July,well short of the consensus estimate of 653,000. The Labor Department's official jobs report, which typically has more impact on investors, will be released on Friday. Economists expect the report will show the U.S. added 845,000 in non-farm payrolls in July, about even with the previous month, according to Dow Jones estimates.</p><p><blockquote>周三公布的ADP私人就业调查结果显示，7月份就业岗位再次达到33万个，远低于市场普遍预期的65.3万个。通常对投资者影响更大的劳工部官方就业报告将于周五发布。根据道琼斯的估计，经济学家预计该报告将显示美国 7 月份非农就业人数增加 845,000 人，与上月持平。</blockquote></p><p> The10-year Treasury yieldwas holding steady near 1.8% on Thursday. The yield briefly dipping below 1.13% on Wednesday before bouncing back in late morning trading.</p><p><blockquote>周四，10年期国债收益率稳定在1.8%附近。周三收益率短暂跌破 1.13%，随后在上午晚些时候交易中反弹。</blockquote></p><p> Shares ofRokudropped 6% after the company issued quarterly results.Etsyfell 12% in early trading after the company gave guidance for the current quarter that indicated the pandemic-fueled commerce boommay be coming to an end.</p><p><blockquote>Froku 发布季度业绩后，该公司股价下跌 6%。 Etsy 在早盘交易中下跌 12%，此前该公司给出了本季度的指引，表明大流行推动的商业繁荣可能即将结束。</blockquote></p><p> However, earnings season has been strong overall. Goldman Sachs raised its year-end target for the S&amp;P 500 to 4,700, representing 7% upside, in part due to an improving earnings outlook going.</p><p><blockquote>然而，财报季总体上表现强劲。高盛将标普500的年终目标上调至 4,700 股，上涨 7%，部分原因是盈利前景持续改善。</blockquote></p><p> During regular trading Wednesday, shares of Robinhoodsurged 50%, continuing a volatile jump after last week's soft initial public offering. Semiconductor stocks were another bright spot, withNvidiaandAdvanced Micro Devicesrising.</p><p><blockquote>在周三的常规交易中，Robinhood 的股价飙升 50%，延续了上周首次公开募股疲软后的波动性上涨。半导体股是另一个亮点，Vidia 和 Advanced Micro Devices 股价上涨。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Stocks open slightly higher after fall in jobless claims<blockquote>申请失业救济人数下降后股市小幅高开</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nStocks open slightly higher after fall in jobless claims<blockquote>申请失业救济人数下降后股市小幅高开</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-08-05 21:27</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>(Aug 5)&nbsp;Stocks open slightly higher after fall in jobless claims.</p><p><blockquote>（8月5日）申请失业救济人数下降后，股市小幅开盘走高。</blockquote></p><p> Dow industrials up 94 points, or 0.3%.&nbsp;S&amp;P 500 up 0.3% at 4,414.12.&nbsp;Nasdaq Composite up less than 0.1% at 14,784.61.&nbsp;</p><p><blockquote>道琼斯工业平均指数上涨94点，或0.3%。标普500指数上涨0.3%，至4414.12点。纳斯达克综合指数上涨不到0.1%，至14784.61点。</blockquote></p><p> Fastly plunges over&nbsp;23% in morning trading&nbsp;after the company's downside Q3 and full-year guidance due to the widespread outage in June.</p><p><blockquote>由于 6 月份大范围停电，该公司第三季度和全年指引下调，早盘交易中Fastly暴跌超过 23%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/44fbcf9492918a352919cdff1fd27498\" tg-width=\"727\" tg-height=\"497\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> The moves in the stocks came after a mostly lower regular session on Wednesday. The Dow dropped more than 300 points, or 0.9%, and closed near its session low. The S&amp;P 500 slipped about 0.5%, while the Nasdaq Composite ticked up 0.1%.</p><p><blockquote>股市的波动是在周三常规交易大多走低之后发生的。道琼斯指数下跌超过300点，跌幅0.9%，收于盘中低点附近。标普500指数下跌约0.5%，而纳斯达克综合指数上涨0.1%。</blockquote></p><p> Weekly initial jobless claims came in at385,000 on Thursday,in-line with expectations. Recent earnings and economic data have been strong overall, but some economists worry economic growth and employment gains will taper from here.</p><p><blockquote>周四每周初请失业金人数为38.5万人，符合预期。最近的盈利和经济数据总体强劲，但一些经济学家担心经济增长和就业增长将从此逐渐减少。</blockquote></p><p> The jobless claims data was the last reading before the key July jobs report, which will be released on Friday morning. There is a wide range of estimates from economists and what the report will show, and some metrics for employment gains have disappointed despite a high level of reported job openings.</p><p><blockquote>申请失业救济人数数据是关键的 7 月份就业报告之前的最后读数，该报告将于周五上午发布。经济学家的估计和报告将显示的内容各不相同，尽管报告的职位空缺水平很高，但一些就业增长指标令人失望。</blockquote></p><p> \"Many factors are likely driving worker shortages; concerns about catching the virus, childcare responsibilities, skills mismatches, and generous unemployment insurance benefits,\" PNC Senior Economist Abbey Omodunbi said in an email. In the second half of the year, \"more competition for workers, particularly in the leisure and hospitality sector, will support acceleration in wage growth, boosting household incomes and consumer spending.\"</p><p><blockquote>PNC 高级经济学家阿比·奥莫敦比 (Abbey Omodonbi) 在一封电子邮件中表示：“许多因素可能导致工人短缺；对感染病毒的担忧、育儿责任、技能不匹配以及慷慨的失业保险福利。”下半年，“对工人的更多竞争，特别是在休闲和酒店业，将支持工资增长加速，增加家庭收入和消费者支出。”</blockquote></p><p> The results of an ADP private payroll survey released Wednesday showed again of 330,000 jobs for July,well short of the consensus estimate of 653,000. The Labor Department's official jobs report, which typically has more impact on investors, will be released on Friday. Economists expect the report will show the U.S. added 845,000 in non-farm payrolls in July, about even with the previous month, according to Dow Jones estimates.</p><p><blockquote>周三公布的ADP私人就业调查结果显示，7月份就业岗位再次达到33万个，远低于市场普遍预期的65.3万个。通常对投资者影响更大的劳工部官方就业报告将于周五发布。根据道琼斯的估计，经济学家预计该报告将显示美国 7 月份非农就业人数增加 845,000 人，与上月持平。</blockquote></p><p> The10-year Treasury yieldwas holding steady near 1.8% on Thursday. The yield briefly dipping below 1.13% on Wednesday before bouncing back in late morning trading.</p><p><blockquote>周四，10年期国债收益率稳定在1.8%附近。周三收益率短暂跌破 1.13%，随后在上午晚些时候交易中反弹。</blockquote></p><p> Shares ofRokudropped 6% after the company issued quarterly results.Etsyfell 12% in early trading after the company gave guidance for the current quarter that indicated the pandemic-fueled commerce boommay be coming to an end.</p><p><blockquote>Froku 发布季度业绩后，该公司股价下跌 6%。 Etsy 在早盘交易中下跌 12%，此前该公司给出了本季度的指引，表明大流行推动的商业繁荣可能即将结束。</blockquote></p><p> However, earnings season has been strong overall. Goldman Sachs raised its year-end target for the S&amp;P 500 to 4,700, representing 7% upside, in part due to an improving earnings outlook going.</p><p><blockquote>然而，财报季总体上表现强劲。高盛将标普500的年终目标上调至 4,700 股，上涨 7%，部分原因是盈利前景持续改善。</blockquote></p><p> During regular trading Wednesday, shares of Robinhoodsurged 50%, continuing a volatile jump after last week's soft initial public offering. Semiconductor stocks were another bright spot, withNvidiaandAdvanced Micro Devicesrising.</p><p><blockquote>在周三的常规交易中，Robinhood 的股价飙升 50%，延续了上周首次公开募股疲软后的波动性上涨。半导体股是另一个亮点，Vidia 和 Advanced Micro Devices 股价上涨。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1102705333","content_text":"(Aug 5) Stocks open slightly higher after fall in jobless claims.\nDow industrials up 94 points, or 0.3%. S&P 500 up 0.3% at 4,414.12. Nasdaq Composite up less than 0.1% at 14,784.61. \nFastly plunges over 23% in morning trading after the company's downside Q3 and full-year guidance due to the widespread outage in June.\n\nThe moves in the stocks came after a mostly lower regular session on Wednesday. The Dow dropped more than 300 points, or 0.9%, and closed near its session low. The S&P 500 slipped about 0.5%, while the Nasdaq Composite ticked up 0.1%.\nWeekly initial jobless claims came in at385,000 on Thursday,in-line with expectations. Recent earnings and economic data have been strong overall, but some economists worry economic growth and employment gains will taper from here.\nThe jobless claims data was the last reading before the key July jobs report, which will be released on Friday morning. There is a wide range of estimates from economists and what the report will show, and some metrics for employment gains have disappointed despite a high level of reported job openings.\n\"Many factors are likely driving worker shortages; concerns about catching the virus, childcare responsibilities, skills mismatches, and generous unemployment insurance benefits,\" PNC Senior Economist Abbey Omodunbi said in an email. In the second half of the year, \"more competition for workers, particularly in the leisure and hospitality sector, will support acceleration in wage growth, boosting household incomes and consumer spending.\"\nThe results of an ADP private payroll survey released Wednesday showed again of 330,000 jobs for July,well short of the consensus estimate of 653,000. The Labor Department's official jobs report, which typically has more impact on investors, will be released on Friday. Economists expect the report will show the U.S. added 845,000 in non-farm payrolls in July, about even with the previous month, according to Dow Jones estimates.\nThe10-year Treasury yieldwas holding steady near 1.8% on Thursday. The yield briefly dipping below 1.13% on Wednesday before bouncing back in late morning trading.\nShares ofRokudropped 6% after the company issued quarterly results.Etsyfell 12% in early trading after the company gave guidance for the current quarter that indicated the pandemic-fueled commerce boommay be coming to an end.\nHowever, earnings season has been strong overall. Goldman Sachs raised its year-end target for the S&P 500 to 4,700, representing 7% upside, in part due to an improving earnings outlook going.\nDuring regular trading Wednesday, shares of Robinhoodsurged 50%, continuing a volatile jump after last week's soft initial public offering. Semiconductor stocks were another bright spot, withNvidiaandAdvanced Micro Devicesrising.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2259,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":890982918,"gmtCreate":1628076339434,"gmtModify":1631891339560,"author":{"id":"3573867635894284","authorId":"3573867635894284","name":"Felixt","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cdb9d8a80a3cd0176dc5aaf42013604f","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573867635894284","idStr":"3573867635894284"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Like","listText":"Like","text":"Like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/890982918","repostId":"1137127820","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2518,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":807950637,"gmtCreate":1627998060429,"gmtModify":1631891339569,"author":{"id":"3573867635894284","authorId":"3573867635894284","name":"Felixt","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cdb9d8a80a3cd0176dc5aaf42013604f","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573867635894284","idStr":"3573867635894284"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Like","listText":"Like","text":"Like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/807950637","repostId":"1144385219","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2371,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":806261247,"gmtCreate":1627658475289,"gmtModify":1631891339582,"author":{"id":"3573867635894284","authorId":"3573867635894284","name":"Felixt","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cdb9d8a80a3cd0176dc5aaf42013604f","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573867635894284","idStr":"3573867635894284"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Like","listText":"Like","text":"Like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/806261247","repostId":"2155137344","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2691,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":803893422,"gmtCreate":1627430662766,"gmtModify":1631891339595,"author":{"id":"3573867635894284","authorId":"3573867635894284","name":"Felixt","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cdb9d8a80a3cd0176dc5aaf42013604f","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573867635894284","idStr":"3573867635894284"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Yes","listText":"Yes","text":"Yes","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/803893422","repostId":"2154894857","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1995,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":800292156,"gmtCreate":1627303512875,"gmtModify":1631891339609,"author":{"id":"3573867635894284","authorId":"3573867635894284","name":"Felixt","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cdb9d8a80a3cd0176dc5aaf42013604f","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573867635894284","idStr":"3573867635894284"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/800292156","repostId":"1184014483","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3192,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":177877444,"gmtCreate":1627202876188,"gmtModify":1631891339620,"author":{"id":"3573867635894284","authorId":"3573867635894284","name":"Felixt","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cdb9d8a80a3cd0176dc5aaf42013604f","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573867635894284","idStr":"3573867635894284"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Like","listText":"Like","text":"Like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/177877444","repostId":"1176552691","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1176552691","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1627183789,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1176552691?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-25 11:29","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Is IBM Stock Undervalued Or Overvalued? What To Consider<blockquote>IBM 股票被低估还是被高估？需要考虑什么</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1176552691","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nIBM beat analysts’ second-quarter earnings as cloud revenue and operating margins improved.","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>IBM beat analysts’ second-quarter earnings as cloud revenue and operating margins improved.</li>  <li>Prior to Q1, IBM posted declining revenue for four consecutive quarters, and 30 of the last 34 quarters.</li>  <li>More transparency is needed regarding the Kyndryl spinoff.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2c798e0536c6804d44b195f6f349fab5\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1044\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Ethan Miller/Getty Images News</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>IBM 第二季度盈利超出分析师预期，云收入和营业利润率均有所提高。</li><li>在第一季度之前，IBM 连续四个季度收入下降，过去 34 个季度中有 30 个季度收入下降。</li><li>Kyndryl分拆需要更多的透明度。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>伊桑·米勒/盖蒂图片社新闻</span></p></blockquote></p><p> International Business Machines Corporation (IBM) is a company in transition. Unfortunately for investors, the transition has been in place for the better part of a decade. Those turnaround efforts include investments in cloud computing and artificial intelligence and the divestiture of legacy businesses. While there are now signs of green shoots, it is yet to be seen as to whether the seeds sown have fallen on rocky ground.</p><p><blockquote>国际商用机器公司（IBM）是一家处于转型期的公司。对投资者来说不幸的是，这种转变已经持续了十年的大部分时间。这些扭亏为盈的努力包括对云计算和人工智能的投资以及传统业务的剥离。虽然现在有绿芽的迹象，但播种的种子是否落在岩石地上还有待观察。</blockquote></p><p> Although the company has a rapidly growing business in hybrid cloud offerings, and a potential growth engine in quantum computing, it faces intense competition in the former industry and uncertain prospects in the latter. Most of the firm’s other businesses are in the doldrums, so IBM’s growth prospects are opaque.</p><p><blockquote>尽管该公司在混合云产品方面的业务快速增长，并且在量子计算方面是一个潜在的增长引擎，但它面临着前者行业的激烈竞争和后者行业的不确定前景。公司的大多数其他业务都处于低迷状态，因此 IBM 的增长前景不明朗。</blockquote></p><p> What is certain is that as of today, IBM has a reasonable and diminishing debt load and strong free cash flow.</p><p><blockquote>可以肯定的是，截至今天，IBM 拥有合理且不断减少的债务负担和强劲的自由现金流。</blockquote></p><p> Management is attempting to address growth concerns in part by focusing on the firm’s cloud offerings, while it spins off its managed infrastructure business. That company will be named Kyndryl. However, the debt which the new entity will shoulder, along with the portion of the current dividend that it will carry, has not been divulged.</p><p><blockquote>管理层正试图通过专注于公司的云产品来解决增长问题，同时剥离托管基础设施业务。该公司将被命名为 Kyndryl。然而，新实体将承担的债务以及它将承担的当前股息部分尚未披露。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Recent Quarterly Results</b></p><p><blockquote><b>最近季度业绩</b></blockquote></p><p> IBM&nbsp;reported&nbsp;Q2 results last Monday. With non-GAAP EPS of $2.33, the company beat estimates by $0.04.</p><p><blockquote>IBM 上周一公布了第二季度业绩。该公司非 GAAP 每股收益为 2.33 美元，超出预期 0.04 美元。</blockquote></p><p> Revenue of $18.7 billion was flat when adjusted for currency and divestitures.</p><p><blockquote>经货币和资产剥离调整后，收入为 187 亿美元，持平。</blockquote></p><p> The negative side of the report had Systems revenue declining by 7%. However, this was largely due to the normal IBM Z mainframe cycle, down 13% year over year.</p><p><blockquote>该报告的负面影响是系统收入下降了 7%。然而，这主要是由于正常的 IBM Z 大型机周期，同比下降 13%。</blockquote></p><p> The global financing division, which represents a low single digit percentage of overall revenues, was down 9%. Global technology services, which represents roughly a third of overall revenue and will largely be spun off as Kyndryl, had flattish growth.</p><p><blockquote>全球融资部门占总收入的个位数比例较低，下降了 9%。全球技术服务约占总收入的三分之一，并将大部分分拆为 Kyndryl，但增长持平。</blockquote></p><p> The positive side of the report had Cloud &amp; Cognitive Software cloud revenue up 29% and Global Business Services cloud revenue up 35%. Total cloud revenue of $27 billion increased by 15% over the last 12 months, while cloud revenue grew 13% in the quarter to $7.0 billion.</p><p><blockquote>该报告的积极方面是云和认知软件云收入增长了29%，全球商业服务云收入增长了35%。过去 12 个月，云总收入为 270 亿美元，增长了 15%，而本季度云收入增长了 13%，达到 70 亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Net cash from operating activities hit $17.7 billion, and adjusted free cash flow totaled $11 billion over the last 12 months.</p><p><blockquote>过去 12 个月，经营活动产生的净现金达到 177 亿美元，调整后自由现金流总计 110 亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Since year-end 2020, the company has reduced debt by $6.4 billion.</p><p><blockquote>自2020年底以来，该公司已减少债务64亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Management guides for adjusted free cash flow of $11 billion to $12 billion in 2021.</p><p><blockquote>2021年调整后自由现金流110亿至120亿美元的管理指南。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Where IBM Stands Tall</b></p><p><blockquote><b>IBM的立足点</b></blockquote></p><p> IBM is viewed by many as at best a third rate IT company and at worst as a dinosaur, headed towards extinction.</p><p><blockquote>许多人认为IBM充其量是一家三流IT公司，最坏的情况是一只濒临灭绝的恐龙。</blockquote></p><p> It is evident that the company’s revenues have declined for years; however, to accurately assess the stock, investors must understand that IBM’s legacy businesses have many strengths.</p><p><blockquote>很明显，该公司的收入多年来一直在下降；然而，要准确评估该股，投资者必须了解 IBM 的传统业务有很多优势。</blockquote></p><p> For example, IBM is the world’s largest IT services company and the dominant provider of mainframes. Among the Fortune 50 companies, 47 are IBM clients.</p><p><blockquote>例如，IBM 是世界上最大的 IT 服务公司，也是大型机的主要供应商。在财富50强公司中，有47家是IBM的客户。</blockquote></p><p> Half of the world’s wireless connections are handled by the firm.</p><p><blockquote>世界上一半的无线连接都由该公司处理。</blockquote></p><p> IBM's mainframe systems process nearly 90% of the globe’s credit card transactions, and 97% of the world's largest banks rely on IBM products and services. Consequently, twenty-nine billion ATM transactions are processed annually using IBM systems.</p><p><blockquote>IBM 的大型机系统处理了全球近 90% 的信用卡交易，全球 97% 的最大银行依赖 IBM 的产品和服务。因此，每年使用IBM系统处理290亿笔ATM交易。</blockquote></p><p> Eight out of 10 global retailers rely on IBM products and services while 80% of the travel industry's reservations run through IBM systems. That results in 4 billion flight reservations being processed using the company’s IT services.</p><p><blockquote>十分之八的全球零售商依赖IBM的产品和服务，而旅游业80%的预订都是通过IBM系统进行的。这导致使用该公司的 IT 服务处理了 40 亿个航班预订。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7ace4f1436fd2697c5ad266b5017e1dd\" tg-width=\"960\" tg-height=\"721\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Forbes</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：福布斯</span></p></blockquote></p><p> It is evident that IBM has a massive customer base that provides large scale recurring revenues. In many cases, moving to competitors' offerings would mean risking the transfer of sensitive information, a move many are not willing to take.</p><p><blockquote>很明显，IBM拥有庞大的客户群，提供了大规模的经常性收入。在许多情况下，转向竞争对手的产品意味着冒着敏感信息传输的风险，这是许多人不愿意采取的举措。</blockquote></p><p> However, with the transition to cloud services and open source software, there is an increased adoption by firms of mix and match IT infrastructures. In turn, this is eroding IBM’s competitive advantage associated with customer switching costs.</p><p><blockquote>然而，随着向云服务和开源软件的过渡，企业越来越多地采用混合匹配的IT基础架构。反过来，这又侵蚀了 IBM 在客户转换成本方面的竞争优势。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Sources Of Potential Growth</b></p><p><blockquote><b>潜在增长的来源</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> Investors are generally aware of IBM's effort to drive growth through its hybrid cloud offerings. However, when questioned at JPMorgan’s recent investor conference, CFO Jim Kavanaugh&nbsp;provided insight&nbsp;into how hybrid cloud drives revenue in some of IBM’s other divisions.</p><p><blockquote>投资者普遍意识到 IBM 通过其混合云产品推动增长的努力。不过，在摩根大通最近举行的投资者大会上，首席财务官吉姆-卡瓦诺（Jim Kavanaugh）在接受提问时，就混合云如何推动 IBM 其他一些部门的收入提出了见解。</blockquote></p><p>   For every $1 (in business) we land on a hybrid cloud platform, we see $3 to $5 of software drag and $6 to $8 of services drag overall.  Of course, Kavanaugh is using drag to refer to increased revenue in software and services associated with adoption of IBM’s hybrid cloud. If Kavanaugh’s claims are accurate, that means every dollar spent on the company’s hybrid cloud platform translates into $9 to $13 in additional revenue from the firm’s software and services offerings.</p><p><blockquote>我们每在混合云平台上投入1美元（在业务中），就会看到3到5美元的软件拖累和6到8美元的服务拖累。当然，卡瓦诺使用的是 drag 指的是与采用 IBM 混合云相关的软件和服务收入的增加。如果卡瓦诺的说法准确，这意味着在公司混合云平台上花费的每一美元都能从公司的软件和服务产品中获得 9 到 13 美元的额外收入。</blockquote></p><p> Because hybrid cloud uses a mix of on-premises private cloud and public cloud services, it offers clients a degree of data privacy. This is of particular concern for customers in healthcare and financial services. Consequently, I would posit that IBM might have an advantage in competing with other hybrid cloud providers as it has extensive relationships within those industries.</p><p><blockquote>因为混合云混合使用内部私有云和公共云服务，所以它为客户提供了一定程度的数据隐私。医疗保健和金融服务领域的客户尤其关注这一点。因此，我认为IBM在与其他混合云提供商的竞争中可能具有优势，因为它在这些行业中拥有广泛的关系。</blockquote></p><p> I reviewed a variety of prognostications regarding projected growth rates for the hybrid cloud market. The most recent study, which also falls in the middle of other predictions, is by Mordor Intelligence. That firm&nbsp;forecasts&nbsp;a CAGR of 18.73% from 2021 through 2026.</p><p><blockquote>我回顾了关于混合云市场预计增长率的各种预测。最新的研究也属于其他预测的范围，是由魔多情报公司进行的。该公司预测 2021 年至 2026 年的复合年增长率为 18.73%。</blockquote></p><p> Investors should be aware that the major operators in this space are Cisco (CSCO), Hewlett Packard (HPE), Amazon (AMZN), Citrix Systems (CTXS), and IBM.</p><p><blockquote>投资者应该意识到，该领域的主要运营商是思科 (CSCO)、惠普 (HPE)、亚马逊 (AMZN)、思杰系统 (CTXS) 和 IBM。</blockquote></p><p> The following chart provides a record of the firm’s total cloud growth over the last six quarters.</p><p><blockquote>下图记录了该公司过去六个季度的总云增长情况。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5fc85156e70f6caf8ae809f76126a723\" tg-width=\"576\" tg-height=\"336\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Company reports / Chart by Author</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：公司报告/作者图表</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Aside from cloud, there is another source of potential growth, although it is unlikely to materialize soon.</p><p><blockquote>除了云，还有另一个潜在增长来源，尽管它不太可能很快实现。</blockquote></p><p> Early in 2019, IBM&nbsp;introduced&nbsp;the Q System One. IBM Q systems are the world's first quantum computer designed for scientific and commercial use.</p><p><blockquote>2019年初，IBM推出了Q System One。IBM Q systems是世界上第一台为科学和商业用途设计的量子计算机。</blockquote></p><p> Pardon the pun, but quantum computers represent a quantum leap in technology. Prescient And Strategic Intelligence&nbsp;forecasts&nbsp;a CAGR of 56% for the industry through 2030 with the quantum computer market share reaching nearly $65 billion.</p><p><blockquote>请原谅这个双关语，但量子计算机代表了技术的巨大飞跃。Prescient And Strategic Intelligence预测，到2030年，该行业的CAGR将达到56%，量子计算机市场份额将达到近650亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> For additional insights regarding quantum computing and IBM’s position within that industry, I point you to&nbsp;my article, “IBM: Why My Eye Is Fixed On Big Blue.”</p><p><blockquote>有关量子计算和 IBM 在该行业中的地位的更多见解，我向您推荐我的文章《IBM：为什么我的眼睛盯着蓝色巨人》。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Understanding Kyndryl</b></p><p><blockquote><b>了解Kyndryl</b></blockquote></p><p> Once&nbsp;Kyndryl&nbsp;is launched, it will have more than 90,000 employees and more than 4,600 customers in 115 countries. With a $60 billion services backlog, the new entity will begin with projected revenues of $19 billion. At twice the size of its closest competitor, the company will be the world’s largest managed infrastructure services provider.</p><p><blockquote>Kyndryl一旦推出，将在115个国家拥有9万多名员工和4600多名客户。随着600亿美元的服务积压，新实体的预计收入将达到190亿美元。该公司的规模是其最接近的竞争对手的两倍，将成为全球最大的托管基础设施服务提供商。</blockquote></p><p> The split will&nbsp;transform&nbsp;IBM from a company that pulls half of its revenue from services to a firm with its software and solutions businesses generating over half of its revenue on a recurring basis.</p><p><blockquote>此次拆分将使 IBM 从一家一半收入来自服务的公司转变为一家软件和解决方案业务一半以上收入的公司。</blockquote></p><p> Global Business Services, which currently constitutes 22% of the company’s revenue, will&nbsp;account&nbsp;for over 40% of sales. Here it is important to note that the division grew revenue by 12% year over year in the last quarter.</p><p><blockquote>全球商业服务目前占该公司收入的 22%，将占销售额的 40% 以上。值得注意的是，该部门上一季度的收入同比增长了 12%。</blockquote></p><p> IBM will retain Red Hat and its solution provider business, the systems businesses, and its mission-critical public cloud service, and a software portfolio focused on big data, AI, and security.</p><p><blockquote>IBM 将保留 Red Hat 及其解决方案提供商业务、系统业务、关键任务公共云服务，以及专注于大数据、人工智能和安全的软件产品组合。</blockquote></p><p> Initially, the two companies will each be the largest customer of the other.</p><p><blockquote>最初，两家公司将各自成为对方最大的客户。</blockquote></p><p> What remains to be known regarding the spinoff is how much debt each company will shoulder, and the share of the dividend that the companies will pay. Krishna stated the two companies will work together to sustain the current payout level.</p><p><blockquote>关于分拆，仍有待了解的是每家公司将承担多少债务，以及公司将支付的股息份额。克里希纳表示，两家公司将共同努力维持目前的支付水平。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Has IBM Turned The Corner?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>IBM已经转危为安了吗？</b></blockquote></p><p> Anyone who follows IBM knows the company has experienced an extended period of poor results. The following chart provides a record of the firm’s quarterly FCF over the last fourteen quarters.</p><p><blockquote>任何关注IBM的人都知道，该公司经历了长期的糟糕业绩。下图记录了该公司过去十四个季度的季度自由现金流。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/60cc8b82052f97dd449205999ee30711\" tg-width=\"577\" tg-height=\"337\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Data from ycharts / chart by author</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：ycharts 数据 / 作者提供的图表</span></p></blockquote></p><p> While this is not proof positive that the company is back on track, the recent trend is at least encouraging.</p><p><blockquote>虽然这并不能证明该公司重回正轨，但最近的趋势至少令人鼓舞。</blockquote></p><p> In 2020, IBM generated $10.8 billion in free cash flow. Management guides for adjusted free cash flow of $11 billion to $12 billion in 2021. This excludes $3 billion in structural impacts related to the Kyndryl spinoff.</p><p><blockquote>2020年，IBM产生了108亿美元的自由现金流。2021年调整后自由现金流110亿至120亿美元的管理指南。这不包括与 Kyndryl 分拆相关的 30 亿美元结构性影响。</blockquote></p><p> The CEO&nbsp;recently stated&nbsp;he expects IBM to generate $12 billion to $13 billion in FCF in 2022.</p><p><blockquote>这位首席执行官最近表示，他预计 IBM 到 2022 年将产生 120 亿至 130 亿美元的自由现金流。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Debt And Dividend</b></p><p><blockquote><b>债务和股息</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> While investors can rightfully complain of a variety of management moves over the years, the firm has maintained a reasonable debt profile while engaging in a number of acquisitions.</p><p><blockquote>虽然投资者可以理所当然地抱怨多年来的各种管理层变动，但该公司在进行多项收购的同时保持了合理的债务状况。</blockquote></p><p> The company has reduced the debt by roughly $18 billion since its peak in mid-2019. IBM maintains an investment level credit rating, and the following chart provides a record of the company’s progress paying down debt of late.</p><p><blockquote>自 2019 年中期达到峰值以来，该公司已将债务减少了约 180 亿美元。IBM 维持投资级信用评级，下图记录了该公司近期偿还债务的进展情况。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b73e613157c486a5f5e8306546121971\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"720\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: IBM Presentation</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：IBM演示文稿</span></p></blockquote></p><p> IBM has a yield of 4.64%, a payout ratio a bit below 61%, and a 5 year dividend growth rate of 4.26%. As previously noted, following the spinoff of Kyndryl, the two companies will team to provide a payout equivalent to the current dividend.</p><p><blockquote>IBM的收益率为4.64%，派息率略低于61%，5年股息增长率为4.26%。如前所述，Kyndryl 分拆后，两家公司将合作提供相当于当前股息的派息。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Is IBM Stock Overvalued?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>IBM 股票被高估了吗？</b></blockquote></p><p> IBM shares trade for $141.13. The average 12 month price target of 8 analysts is $153.50. The price target of the 3 analysts rating the stock since the last earnings report is $151.33.</p><p><blockquote>IBM 股价交易价格为 141.13 美元。8 位分析师的 12 个月平均目标价为 153.50 美元。自上次收益报告以来，3 位分析师对该股的目标价为 151.33 美元。</blockquote></p><p> IBM has a P/E of 24.05x and a forward P/E of 17.67x. This compares to its five year averages of 16.42x and 13.25x respectively. It is well below the sector average which is in the low thirties for both metrics.</p><p><blockquote>IBM的市盈率为24.05倍，远期市盈率为17.67倍。相比之下，其五年平均水平分别为 16.42 倍和 13.25 倍。这两个指标都远低于行业平均水平，行业平均水平都在三十分左右。</blockquote></p><p> The 3 to 5 year PEG provided by Seeking Alpha Premium is 1.16x. Schwab calculates a PEG of 1.49x, and Yahoo does not provide a PEG ratio.</p><p><blockquote>Seeking Alpha Premium 提供的 3 至 5 年期 PEG 为 1.16 倍。嘉信理财计算的PEG为1.49倍，雅虎没有提供PEG比率。</blockquote></p><p> I believe the current P/E ratios for the stock reflect investors anticipating increased growth for IBM once the spinoff is complete. The PEG ratios show the stock is reasonably valued.</p><p><blockquote>我相信该股目前的市盈率反映了投资者对分拆完成后 IBM 增长的预期。挂钩比率显示该股票估值合理。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Is IBM Stock A Good Long-Term Investment?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>IBM 股票是一项好的长期投资吗？</b></blockquote></p><p> IBM has an entrenched but evolving position among many of the largest companies on the globe. Unfortunately, the cloud, which is seen as the company’s primary avenue for growth, could also lead to a slow deterioration in some of the firm’s legacy businesses.</p><p><blockquote>IBM在全球许多最大的公司中拥有根深蒂固但不断发展的地位。不幸的是，被视为公司主要增长途径的云计算也可能导致公司一些传统业务的缓慢恶化。</blockquote></p><p> That the cloud business has been growing at a rapid pace is manifest: IBM can now boast of over 3,200 clients using the firm’s hybrid cloud platform. That is nearly four times the number just prior to the Red Hat acquisition.</p><p><blockquote>云业务的快速增长是显而易见的： IBM 现在拥有 3200 多家客户使用公司的混合云平台。这几乎是红帽收购前数字的四倍。</blockquote></p><p> If management’s claims are accurate, the hybrid cloud platform will create robust growth in the software and services division’s revenues. When combined with the spinoff of Kyndryl’s slow growing managed infrastructure services business, it is reasonable to believe IBM will witness increased growth.</p><p><blockquote>如果管理层的说法准确，混合云平台将为软件和服务部门的收入带来强劲增长。再加上 Kyndryl 发展缓慢的托管基础设施服务业务的分拆，我们有理由相信 IBM 将实现更快的增长。</blockquote></p><p> IBM has a solid balance sheet, a robust yield, and when viewed using PEG ratios as a basis for valuing the stock, the shares are trading at a bit of a discount.</p><p><blockquote>IBM 拥有稳健的资产负债表、强劲的收益率，当使用 PEG 比率作为股票估值的基础时，股票交易价格略有折扣。</blockquote></p><p> All considered, I rate IBM as a BUY.</p><p><blockquote>综合考虑，我将 IBM 评级为买入。</blockquote></p><p> I think the worst case short to mid-term scenario is that the company experiences slow growth while investors collect a rather robust dividend.</p><p><blockquote>我认为中短期内最糟糕的情况是公司增长缓慢，而投资者却获得了相当丰厚的股息。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Is IBM Stock Undervalued Or Overvalued? What To Consider<blockquote>IBM 股票被低估还是被高估？需要考虑什么</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIs IBM Stock Undervalued Or Overvalued? What To Consider<blockquote>IBM 股票被低估还是被高估？需要考虑什么</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-25 11:29</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>IBM beat analysts’ second-quarter earnings as cloud revenue and operating margins improved.</li>  <li>Prior to Q1, IBM posted declining revenue for four consecutive quarters, and 30 of the last 34 quarters.</li>  <li>More transparency is needed regarding the Kyndryl spinoff.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2c798e0536c6804d44b195f6f349fab5\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1044\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Ethan Miller/Getty Images News</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>IBM 第二季度盈利超出分析师预期，云收入和营业利润率均有所提高。</li><li>在第一季度之前，IBM 连续四个季度收入下降，过去 34 个季度中有 30 个季度收入下降。</li><li>Kyndryl分拆需要更多的透明度。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>伊桑·米勒/盖蒂图片社新闻</span></p></blockquote></p><p> International Business Machines Corporation (IBM) is a company in transition. Unfortunately for investors, the transition has been in place for the better part of a decade. Those turnaround efforts include investments in cloud computing and artificial intelligence and the divestiture of legacy businesses. While there are now signs of green shoots, it is yet to be seen as to whether the seeds sown have fallen on rocky ground.</p><p><blockquote>国际商用机器公司（IBM）是一家处于转型期的公司。对投资者来说不幸的是，这种转变已经持续了十年的大部分时间。这些扭亏为盈的努力包括对云计算和人工智能的投资以及传统业务的剥离。虽然现在有绿芽的迹象，但播种的种子是否落在岩石地上还有待观察。</blockquote></p><p> Although the company has a rapidly growing business in hybrid cloud offerings, and a potential growth engine in quantum computing, it faces intense competition in the former industry and uncertain prospects in the latter. Most of the firm’s other businesses are in the doldrums, so IBM’s growth prospects are opaque.</p><p><blockquote>尽管该公司在混合云产品方面的业务快速增长，并且在量子计算方面是一个潜在的增长引擎，但它面临着前者行业的激烈竞争和后者行业的不确定前景。公司的大多数其他业务都处于低迷状态，因此 IBM 的增长前景不明朗。</blockquote></p><p> What is certain is that as of today, IBM has a reasonable and diminishing debt load and strong free cash flow.</p><p><blockquote>可以肯定的是，截至今天，IBM 拥有合理且不断减少的债务负担和强劲的自由现金流。</blockquote></p><p> Management is attempting to address growth concerns in part by focusing on the firm’s cloud offerings, while it spins off its managed infrastructure business. That company will be named Kyndryl. However, the debt which the new entity will shoulder, along with the portion of the current dividend that it will carry, has not been divulged.</p><p><blockquote>管理层正试图通过专注于公司的云产品来解决增长问题，同时剥离托管基础设施业务。该公司将被命名为 Kyndryl。然而，新实体将承担的债务以及它将承担的当前股息部分尚未披露。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Recent Quarterly Results</b></p><p><blockquote><b>最近季度业绩</b></blockquote></p><p> IBM&nbsp;reported&nbsp;Q2 results last Monday. With non-GAAP EPS of $2.33, the company beat estimates by $0.04.</p><p><blockquote>IBM 上周一公布了第二季度业绩。该公司非 GAAP 每股收益为 2.33 美元，超出预期 0.04 美元。</blockquote></p><p> Revenue of $18.7 billion was flat when adjusted for currency and divestitures.</p><p><blockquote>经货币和资产剥离调整后，收入为 187 亿美元，持平。</blockquote></p><p> The negative side of the report had Systems revenue declining by 7%. However, this was largely due to the normal IBM Z mainframe cycle, down 13% year over year.</p><p><blockquote>该报告的负面影响是系统收入下降了 7%。然而，这主要是由于正常的 IBM Z 大型机周期，同比下降 13%。</blockquote></p><p> The global financing division, which represents a low single digit percentage of overall revenues, was down 9%. Global technology services, which represents roughly a third of overall revenue and will largely be spun off as Kyndryl, had flattish growth.</p><p><blockquote>全球融资部门占总收入的个位数比例较低，下降了 9%。全球技术服务约占总收入的三分之一，并将大部分分拆为 Kyndryl，但增长持平。</blockquote></p><p> The positive side of the report had Cloud &amp; Cognitive Software cloud revenue up 29% and Global Business Services cloud revenue up 35%. Total cloud revenue of $27 billion increased by 15% over the last 12 months, while cloud revenue grew 13% in the quarter to $7.0 billion.</p><p><blockquote>该报告的积极方面是云和认知软件云收入增长了29%，全球商业服务云收入增长了35%。过去 12 个月，云总收入为 270 亿美元，增长了 15%，而本季度云收入增长了 13%，达到 70 亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Net cash from operating activities hit $17.7 billion, and adjusted free cash flow totaled $11 billion over the last 12 months.</p><p><blockquote>过去 12 个月，经营活动产生的净现金达到 177 亿美元，调整后自由现金流总计 110 亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Since year-end 2020, the company has reduced debt by $6.4 billion.</p><p><blockquote>自2020年底以来，该公司已减少债务64亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Management guides for adjusted free cash flow of $11 billion to $12 billion in 2021.</p><p><blockquote>2021年调整后自由现金流110亿至120亿美元的管理指南。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Where IBM Stands Tall</b></p><p><blockquote><b>IBM的立足点</b></blockquote></p><p> IBM is viewed by many as at best a third rate IT company and at worst as a dinosaur, headed towards extinction.</p><p><blockquote>许多人认为IBM充其量是一家三流IT公司，最坏的情况是一只濒临灭绝的恐龙。</blockquote></p><p> It is evident that the company’s revenues have declined for years; however, to accurately assess the stock, investors must understand that IBM’s legacy businesses have many strengths.</p><p><blockquote>很明显，该公司的收入多年来一直在下降；然而，要准确评估该股，投资者必须了解 IBM 的传统业务有很多优势。</blockquote></p><p> For example, IBM is the world’s largest IT services company and the dominant provider of mainframes. Among the Fortune 50 companies, 47 are IBM clients.</p><p><blockquote>例如，IBM 是世界上最大的 IT 服务公司，也是大型机的主要供应商。在财富50强公司中，有47家是IBM的客户。</blockquote></p><p> Half of the world’s wireless connections are handled by the firm.</p><p><blockquote>世界上一半的无线连接都由该公司处理。</blockquote></p><p> IBM's mainframe systems process nearly 90% of the globe’s credit card transactions, and 97% of the world's largest banks rely on IBM products and services. Consequently, twenty-nine billion ATM transactions are processed annually using IBM systems.</p><p><blockquote>IBM 的大型机系统处理了全球近 90% 的信用卡交易，全球 97% 的最大银行依赖 IBM 的产品和服务。因此，每年使用IBM系统处理290亿笔ATM交易。</blockquote></p><p> Eight out of 10 global retailers rely on IBM products and services while 80% of the travel industry's reservations run through IBM systems. That results in 4 billion flight reservations being processed using the company’s IT services.</p><p><blockquote>十分之八的全球零售商依赖IBM的产品和服务，而旅游业80%的预订都是通过IBM系统进行的。这导致使用该公司的 IT 服务处理了 40 亿个航班预订。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7ace4f1436fd2697c5ad266b5017e1dd\" tg-width=\"960\" tg-height=\"721\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Forbes</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：福布斯</span></p></blockquote></p><p> It is evident that IBM has a massive customer base that provides large scale recurring revenues. In many cases, moving to competitors' offerings would mean risking the transfer of sensitive information, a move many are not willing to take.</p><p><blockquote>很明显，IBM拥有庞大的客户群，提供了大规模的经常性收入。在许多情况下，转向竞争对手的产品意味着冒着敏感信息传输的风险，这是许多人不愿意采取的举措。</blockquote></p><p> However, with the transition to cloud services and open source software, there is an increased adoption by firms of mix and match IT infrastructures. In turn, this is eroding IBM’s competitive advantage associated with customer switching costs.</p><p><blockquote>然而，随着向云服务和开源软件的过渡，企业越来越多地采用混合匹配的IT基础架构。反过来，这又侵蚀了 IBM 在客户转换成本方面的竞争优势。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Sources Of Potential Growth</b></p><p><blockquote><b>潜在增长的来源</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> Investors are generally aware of IBM's effort to drive growth through its hybrid cloud offerings. However, when questioned at JPMorgan’s recent investor conference, CFO Jim Kavanaugh&nbsp;provided insight&nbsp;into how hybrid cloud drives revenue in some of IBM’s other divisions.</p><p><blockquote>投资者普遍意识到 IBM 通过其混合云产品推动增长的努力。不过，在摩根大通最近举行的投资者大会上，首席财务官吉姆-卡瓦诺（Jim Kavanaugh）在接受提问时，就混合云如何推动 IBM 其他一些部门的收入提出了见解。</blockquote></p><p>   For every $1 (in business) we land on a hybrid cloud platform, we see $3 to $5 of software drag and $6 to $8 of services drag overall.  Of course, Kavanaugh is using drag to refer to increased revenue in software and services associated with adoption of IBM’s hybrid cloud. If Kavanaugh’s claims are accurate, that means every dollar spent on the company’s hybrid cloud platform translates into $9 to $13 in additional revenue from the firm’s software and services offerings.</p><p><blockquote>我们每在混合云平台上投入1美元（在业务中），就会看到3到5美元的软件拖累和6到8美元的服务拖累。当然，卡瓦诺使用的是 drag 指的是与采用 IBM 混合云相关的软件和服务收入的增加。如果卡瓦诺的说法准确，这意味着在公司混合云平台上花费的每一美元都能从公司的软件和服务产品中获得 9 到 13 美元的额外收入。</blockquote></p><p> Because hybrid cloud uses a mix of on-premises private cloud and public cloud services, it offers clients a degree of data privacy. This is of particular concern for customers in healthcare and financial services. Consequently, I would posit that IBM might have an advantage in competing with other hybrid cloud providers as it has extensive relationships within those industries.</p><p><blockquote>因为混合云混合使用内部私有云和公共云服务，所以它为客户提供了一定程度的数据隐私。医疗保健和金融服务领域的客户尤其关注这一点。因此，我认为IBM在与其他混合云提供商的竞争中可能具有优势，因为它在这些行业中拥有广泛的关系。</blockquote></p><p> I reviewed a variety of prognostications regarding projected growth rates for the hybrid cloud market. The most recent study, which also falls in the middle of other predictions, is by Mordor Intelligence. That firm&nbsp;forecasts&nbsp;a CAGR of 18.73% from 2021 through 2026.</p><p><blockquote>我回顾了关于混合云市场预计增长率的各种预测。最新的研究也属于其他预测的范围，是由魔多情报公司进行的。该公司预测 2021 年至 2026 年的复合年增长率为 18.73%。</blockquote></p><p> Investors should be aware that the major operators in this space are Cisco (CSCO), Hewlett Packard (HPE), Amazon (AMZN), Citrix Systems (CTXS), and IBM.</p><p><blockquote>投资者应该意识到，该领域的主要运营商是思科 (CSCO)、惠普 (HPE)、亚马逊 (AMZN)、思杰系统 (CTXS) 和 IBM。</blockquote></p><p> The following chart provides a record of the firm’s total cloud growth over the last six quarters.</p><p><blockquote>下图记录了该公司过去六个季度的总云增长情况。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5fc85156e70f6caf8ae809f76126a723\" tg-width=\"576\" tg-height=\"336\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Company reports / Chart by Author</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：公司报告/作者图表</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Aside from cloud, there is another source of potential growth, although it is unlikely to materialize soon.</p><p><blockquote>除了云，还有另一个潜在增长来源，尽管它不太可能很快实现。</blockquote></p><p> Early in 2019, IBM&nbsp;introduced&nbsp;the Q System One. IBM Q systems are the world's first quantum computer designed for scientific and commercial use.</p><p><blockquote>2019年初，IBM推出了Q System One。IBM Q systems是世界上第一台为科学和商业用途设计的量子计算机。</blockquote></p><p> Pardon the pun, but quantum computers represent a quantum leap in technology. Prescient And Strategic Intelligence&nbsp;forecasts&nbsp;a CAGR of 56% for the industry through 2030 with the quantum computer market share reaching nearly $65 billion.</p><p><blockquote>请原谅这个双关语，但量子计算机代表了技术的巨大飞跃。Prescient And Strategic Intelligence预测，到2030年，该行业的CAGR将达到56%，量子计算机市场份额将达到近650亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> For additional insights regarding quantum computing and IBM’s position within that industry, I point you to&nbsp;my article, “IBM: Why My Eye Is Fixed On Big Blue.”</p><p><blockquote>有关量子计算和 IBM 在该行业中的地位的更多见解，我向您推荐我的文章《IBM：为什么我的眼睛盯着蓝色巨人》。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Understanding Kyndryl</b></p><p><blockquote><b>了解Kyndryl</b></blockquote></p><p> Once&nbsp;Kyndryl&nbsp;is launched, it will have more than 90,000 employees and more than 4,600 customers in 115 countries. With a $60 billion services backlog, the new entity will begin with projected revenues of $19 billion. At twice the size of its closest competitor, the company will be the world’s largest managed infrastructure services provider.</p><p><blockquote>Kyndryl一旦推出，将在115个国家拥有9万多名员工和4600多名客户。随着600亿美元的服务积压，新实体的预计收入将达到190亿美元。该公司的规模是其最接近的竞争对手的两倍，将成为全球最大的托管基础设施服务提供商。</blockquote></p><p> The split will&nbsp;transform&nbsp;IBM from a company that pulls half of its revenue from services to a firm with its software and solutions businesses generating over half of its revenue on a recurring basis.</p><p><blockquote>此次拆分将使 IBM 从一家一半收入来自服务的公司转变为一家软件和解决方案业务一半以上收入的公司。</blockquote></p><p> Global Business Services, which currently constitutes 22% of the company’s revenue, will&nbsp;account&nbsp;for over 40% of sales. Here it is important to note that the division grew revenue by 12% year over year in the last quarter.</p><p><blockquote>全球商业服务目前占该公司收入的 22%，将占销售额的 40% 以上。值得注意的是，该部门上一季度的收入同比增长了 12%。</blockquote></p><p> IBM will retain Red Hat and its solution provider business, the systems businesses, and its mission-critical public cloud service, and a software portfolio focused on big data, AI, and security.</p><p><blockquote>IBM 将保留 Red Hat 及其解决方案提供商业务、系统业务、关键任务公共云服务，以及专注于大数据、人工智能和安全的软件产品组合。</blockquote></p><p> Initially, the two companies will each be the largest customer of the other.</p><p><blockquote>最初，两家公司将各自成为对方最大的客户。</blockquote></p><p> What remains to be known regarding the spinoff is how much debt each company will shoulder, and the share of the dividend that the companies will pay. Krishna stated the two companies will work together to sustain the current payout level.</p><p><blockquote>关于分拆，仍有待了解的是每家公司将承担多少债务，以及公司将支付的股息份额。克里希纳表示，两家公司将共同努力维持目前的支付水平。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Has IBM Turned The Corner?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>IBM已经转危为安了吗？</b></blockquote></p><p> Anyone who follows IBM knows the company has experienced an extended period of poor results. The following chart provides a record of the firm’s quarterly FCF over the last fourteen quarters.</p><p><blockquote>任何关注IBM的人都知道，该公司经历了长期的糟糕业绩。下图记录了该公司过去十四个季度的季度自由现金流。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/60cc8b82052f97dd449205999ee30711\" tg-width=\"577\" tg-height=\"337\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Data from ycharts / chart by author</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：ycharts 数据 / 作者提供的图表</span></p></blockquote></p><p> While this is not proof positive that the company is back on track, the recent trend is at least encouraging.</p><p><blockquote>虽然这并不能证明该公司重回正轨，但最近的趋势至少令人鼓舞。</blockquote></p><p> In 2020, IBM generated $10.8 billion in free cash flow. Management guides for adjusted free cash flow of $11 billion to $12 billion in 2021. This excludes $3 billion in structural impacts related to the Kyndryl spinoff.</p><p><blockquote>2020年，IBM产生了108亿美元的自由现金流。2021年调整后自由现金流110亿至120亿美元的管理指南。这不包括与 Kyndryl 分拆相关的 30 亿美元结构性影响。</blockquote></p><p> The CEO&nbsp;recently stated&nbsp;he expects IBM to generate $12 billion to $13 billion in FCF in 2022.</p><p><blockquote>这位首席执行官最近表示，他预计 IBM 到 2022 年将产生 120 亿至 130 亿美元的自由现金流。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Debt And Dividend</b></p><p><blockquote><b>债务和股息</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> While investors can rightfully complain of a variety of management moves over the years, the firm has maintained a reasonable debt profile while engaging in a number of acquisitions.</p><p><blockquote>虽然投资者可以理所当然地抱怨多年来的各种管理层变动，但该公司在进行多项收购的同时保持了合理的债务状况。</blockquote></p><p> The company has reduced the debt by roughly $18 billion since its peak in mid-2019. IBM maintains an investment level credit rating, and the following chart provides a record of the company’s progress paying down debt of late.</p><p><blockquote>自 2019 年中期达到峰值以来，该公司已将债务减少了约 180 亿美元。IBM 维持投资级信用评级，下图记录了该公司近期偿还债务的进展情况。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b73e613157c486a5f5e8306546121971\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"720\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: IBM Presentation</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：IBM演示文稿</span></p></blockquote></p><p> IBM has a yield of 4.64%, a payout ratio a bit below 61%, and a 5 year dividend growth rate of 4.26%. As previously noted, following the spinoff of Kyndryl, the two companies will team to provide a payout equivalent to the current dividend.</p><p><blockquote>IBM的收益率为4.64%，派息率略低于61%，5年股息增长率为4.26%。如前所述，Kyndryl 分拆后，两家公司将合作提供相当于当前股息的派息。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Is IBM Stock Overvalued?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>IBM 股票被高估了吗？</b></blockquote></p><p> IBM shares trade for $141.13. The average 12 month price target of 8 analysts is $153.50. The price target of the 3 analysts rating the stock since the last earnings report is $151.33.</p><p><blockquote>IBM 股价交易价格为 141.13 美元。8 位分析师的 12 个月平均目标价为 153.50 美元。自上次收益报告以来，3 位分析师对该股的目标价为 151.33 美元。</blockquote></p><p> IBM has a P/E of 24.05x and a forward P/E of 17.67x. This compares to its five year averages of 16.42x and 13.25x respectively. It is well below the sector average which is in the low thirties for both metrics.</p><p><blockquote>IBM的市盈率为24.05倍，远期市盈率为17.67倍。相比之下，其五年平均水平分别为 16.42 倍和 13.25 倍。这两个指标都远低于行业平均水平，行业平均水平都在三十分左右。</blockquote></p><p> The 3 to 5 year PEG provided by Seeking Alpha Premium is 1.16x. Schwab calculates a PEG of 1.49x, and Yahoo does not provide a PEG ratio.</p><p><blockquote>Seeking Alpha Premium 提供的 3 至 5 年期 PEG 为 1.16 倍。嘉信理财计算的PEG为1.49倍，雅虎没有提供PEG比率。</blockquote></p><p> I believe the current P/E ratios for the stock reflect investors anticipating increased growth for IBM once the spinoff is complete. The PEG ratios show the stock is reasonably valued.</p><p><blockquote>我相信该股目前的市盈率反映了投资者对分拆完成后 IBM 增长的预期。挂钩比率显示该股票估值合理。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Is IBM Stock A Good Long-Term Investment?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>IBM 股票是一项好的长期投资吗？</b></blockquote></p><p> IBM has an entrenched but evolving position among many of the largest companies on the globe. Unfortunately, the cloud, which is seen as the company’s primary avenue for growth, could also lead to a slow deterioration in some of the firm’s legacy businesses.</p><p><blockquote>IBM在全球许多最大的公司中拥有根深蒂固但不断发展的地位。不幸的是，被视为公司主要增长途径的云计算也可能导致公司一些传统业务的缓慢恶化。</blockquote></p><p> That the cloud business has been growing at a rapid pace is manifest: IBM can now boast of over 3,200 clients using the firm’s hybrid cloud platform. That is nearly four times the number just prior to the Red Hat acquisition.</p><p><blockquote>云业务的快速增长是显而易见的： IBM 现在拥有 3200 多家客户使用公司的混合云平台。这几乎是红帽收购前数字的四倍。</blockquote></p><p> If management’s claims are accurate, the hybrid cloud platform will create robust growth in the software and services division’s revenues. When combined with the spinoff of Kyndryl’s slow growing managed infrastructure services business, it is reasonable to believe IBM will witness increased growth.</p><p><blockquote>如果管理层的说法准确，混合云平台将为软件和服务部门的收入带来强劲增长。再加上 Kyndryl 发展缓慢的托管基础设施服务业务的分拆，我们有理由相信 IBM 将实现更快的增长。</blockquote></p><p> IBM has a solid balance sheet, a robust yield, and when viewed using PEG ratios as a basis for valuing the stock, the shares are trading at a bit of a discount.</p><p><blockquote>IBM 拥有稳健的资产负债表、强劲的收益率，当使用 PEG 比率作为股票估值的基础时，股票交易价格略有折扣。</blockquote></p><p> All considered, I rate IBM as a BUY.</p><p><blockquote>综合考虑，我将 IBM 评级为买入。</blockquote></p><p> I think the worst case short to mid-term scenario is that the company experiences slow growth while investors collect a rather robust dividend.</p><p><blockquote>我认为中短期内最糟糕的情况是公司增长缓慢，而投资者却获得了相当丰厚的股息。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4440996-is-ibm-stock-undervalued-overvalued\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"IBM":"IBM"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4440996-is-ibm-stock-undervalued-overvalued","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1176552691","content_text":"Summary\n\nIBM beat analysts’ second-quarter earnings as cloud revenue and operating margins improved.\nPrior to Q1, IBM posted declining revenue for four consecutive quarters, and 30 of the last 34 quarters.\nMore transparency is needed regarding the Kyndryl spinoff.\n\nEthan Miller/Getty Images News\nInternational Business Machines Corporation (IBM) is a company in transition. Unfortunately for investors, the transition has been in place for the better part of a decade. Those turnaround efforts include investments in cloud computing and artificial intelligence and the divestiture of legacy businesses. While there are now signs of green shoots, it is yet to be seen as to whether the seeds sown have fallen on rocky ground.\nAlthough the company has a rapidly growing business in hybrid cloud offerings, and a potential growth engine in quantum computing, it faces intense competition in the former industry and uncertain prospects in the latter. Most of the firm’s other businesses are in the doldrums, so IBM’s growth prospects are opaque.\nWhat is certain is that as of today, IBM has a reasonable and diminishing debt load and strong free cash flow.\nManagement is attempting to address growth concerns in part by focusing on the firm’s cloud offerings, while it spins off its managed infrastructure business. That company will be named Kyndryl. However, the debt which the new entity will shoulder, along with the portion of the current dividend that it will carry, has not been divulged.\nRecent Quarterly Results\nIBM reported Q2 results last Monday. With non-GAAP EPS of $2.33, the company beat estimates by $0.04.\nRevenue of $18.7 billion was flat when adjusted for currency and divestitures.\nThe negative side of the report had Systems revenue declining by 7%. However, this was largely due to the normal IBM Z mainframe cycle, down 13% year over year.\nThe global financing division, which represents a low single digit percentage of overall revenues, was down 9%. Global technology services, which represents roughly a third of overall revenue and will largely be spun off as Kyndryl, had flattish growth.\nThe positive side of the report had Cloud & Cognitive Software cloud revenue up 29% and Global Business Services cloud revenue up 35%. Total cloud revenue of $27 billion increased by 15% over the last 12 months, while cloud revenue grew 13% in the quarter to $7.0 billion.\nNet cash from operating activities hit $17.7 billion, and adjusted free cash flow totaled $11 billion over the last 12 months.\nSince year-end 2020, the company has reduced debt by $6.4 billion.\nManagement guides for adjusted free cash flow of $11 billion to $12 billion in 2021.\nWhere IBM Stands Tall\nIBM is viewed by many as at best a third rate IT company and at worst as a dinosaur, headed towards extinction.\nIt is evident that the company’s revenues have declined for years; however, to accurately assess the stock, investors must understand that IBM’s legacy businesses have many strengths.\nFor example, IBM is the world’s largest IT services company and the dominant provider of mainframes. Among the Fortune 50 companies, 47 are IBM clients.\nHalf of the world’s wireless connections are handled by the firm.\nIBM's mainframe systems process nearly 90% of the globe’s credit card transactions, and 97% of the world's largest banks rely on IBM products and services. Consequently, twenty-nine billion ATM transactions are processed annually using IBM systems.\nEight out of 10 global retailers rely on IBM products and services while 80% of the travel industry's reservations run through IBM systems. That results in 4 billion flight reservations being processed using the company’s IT services.\nSource: Forbes\nIt is evident that IBM has a massive customer base that provides large scale recurring revenues. In many cases, moving to competitors' offerings would mean risking the transfer of sensitive information, a move many are not willing to take.\nHowever, with the transition to cloud services and open source software, there is an increased adoption by firms of mix and match IT infrastructures. In turn, this is eroding IBM’s competitive advantage associated with customer switching costs.\nThe Sources Of Potential Growth\nInvestors are generally aware of IBM's effort to drive growth through its hybrid cloud offerings. However, when questioned at JPMorgan’s recent investor conference, CFO Jim Kavanaugh provided insight into how hybrid cloud drives revenue in some of IBM’s other divisions.\n\n For every $1 (in business) we land on a hybrid cloud platform, we see $3 to $5 of software drag and $6 to $8 of services drag overall.\n\nOf course, Kavanaugh is using drag to refer to increased revenue in software and services associated with adoption of IBM’s hybrid cloud. If Kavanaugh’s claims are accurate, that means every dollar spent on the company’s hybrid cloud platform translates into $9 to $13 in additional revenue from the firm’s software and services offerings.\nBecause hybrid cloud uses a mix of on-premises private cloud and public cloud services, it offers clients a degree of data privacy. This is of particular concern for customers in healthcare and financial services. Consequently, I would posit that IBM might have an advantage in competing with other hybrid cloud providers as it has extensive relationships within those industries.\nI reviewed a variety of prognostications regarding projected growth rates for the hybrid cloud market. The most recent study, which also falls in the middle of other predictions, is by Mordor Intelligence. That firm forecasts a CAGR of 18.73% from 2021 through 2026.\nInvestors should be aware that the major operators in this space are Cisco (CSCO), Hewlett Packard (HPE), Amazon (AMZN), Citrix Systems (CTXS), and IBM.\nThe following chart provides a record of the firm’s total cloud growth over the last six quarters.\nSource: Company reports / Chart by Author\nAside from cloud, there is another source of potential growth, although it is unlikely to materialize soon.\nEarly in 2019, IBM introduced the Q System One. IBM Q systems are the world's first quantum computer designed for scientific and commercial use.\nPardon the pun, but quantum computers represent a quantum leap in technology. Prescient And Strategic Intelligence forecasts a CAGR of 56% for the industry through 2030 with the quantum computer market share reaching nearly $65 billion.\nFor additional insights regarding quantum computing and IBM’s position within that industry, I point you to my article, “IBM: Why My Eye Is Fixed On Big Blue.”\nUnderstanding Kyndryl\nOnce Kyndryl is launched, it will have more than 90,000 employees and more than 4,600 customers in 115 countries. With a $60 billion services backlog, the new entity will begin with projected revenues of $19 billion. At twice the size of its closest competitor, the company will be the world’s largest managed infrastructure services provider.\nThe split will transform IBM from a company that pulls half of its revenue from services to a firm with its software and solutions businesses generating over half of its revenue on a recurring basis.\nGlobal Business Services, which currently constitutes 22% of the company’s revenue, will account for over 40% of sales. Here it is important to note that the division grew revenue by 12% year over year in the last quarter.\nIBM will retain Red Hat and its solution provider business, the systems businesses, and its mission-critical public cloud service, and a software portfolio focused on big data, AI, and security.\nInitially, the two companies will each be the largest customer of the other.\nWhat remains to be known regarding the spinoff is how much debt each company will shoulder, and the share of the dividend that the companies will pay. Krishna stated the two companies will work together to sustain the current payout level.\nHas IBM Turned The Corner?\nAnyone who follows IBM knows the company has experienced an extended period of poor results. The following chart provides a record of the firm’s quarterly FCF over the last fourteen quarters.\nSource: Data from ycharts / chart by author\nWhile this is not proof positive that the company is back on track, the recent trend is at least encouraging.\nIn 2020, IBM generated $10.8 billion in free cash flow. Management guides for adjusted free cash flow of $11 billion to $12 billion in 2021. This excludes $3 billion in structural impacts related to the Kyndryl spinoff.\nThe CEO recently stated he expects IBM to generate $12 billion to $13 billion in FCF in 2022.\nDebt And Dividend\nWhile investors can rightfully complain of a variety of management moves over the years, the firm has maintained a reasonable debt profile while engaging in a number of acquisitions.\nThe company has reduced the debt by roughly $18 billion since its peak in mid-2019. IBM maintains an investment level credit rating, and the following chart provides a record of the company’s progress paying down debt of late.\nSource: IBM Presentation\nIBM has a yield of 4.64%, a payout ratio a bit below 61%, and a 5 year dividend growth rate of 4.26%. As previously noted, following the spinoff of Kyndryl, the two companies will team to provide a payout equivalent to the current dividend.\nIs IBM Stock Overvalued?\nIBM shares trade for $141.13. The average 12 month price target of 8 analysts is $153.50. The price target of the 3 analysts rating the stock since the last earnings report is $151.33.\nIBM has a P/E of 24.05x and a forward P/E of 17.67x. This compares to its five year averages of 16.42x and 13.25x respectively. It is well below the sector average which is in the low thirties for both metrics.\nThe 3 to 5 year PEG provided by Seeking Alpha Premium is 1.16x. Schwab calculates a PEG of 1.49x, and Yahoo does not provide a PEG ratio.\nI believe the current P/E ratios for the stock reflect investors anticipating increased growth for IBM once the spinoff is complete. The PEG ratios show the stock is reasonably valued.\nIs IBM Stock A Good Long-Term Investment?\nIBM has an entrenched but evolving position among many of the largest companies on the globe. Unfortunately, the cloud, which is seen as the company’s primary avenue for growth, could also lead to a slow deterioration in some of the firm’s legacy businesses.\nThat the cloud business has been growing at a rapid pace is manifest: IBM can now boast of over 3,200 clients using the firm’s hybrid cloud platform. That is nearly four times the number just prior to the Red Hat acquisition.\nIf management’s claims are accurate, the hybrid cloud platform will create robust growth in the software and services division’s revenues. When combined with the spinoff of Kyndryl’s slow growing managed infrastructure services business, it is reasonable to believe IBM will witness increased growth.\nIBM has a solid balance sheet, a robust yield, and when viewed using PEG ratios as a basis for valuing the stock, the shares are trading at a bit of a discount.\nAll considered, I rate IBM as a BUY.\nI think the worst case short to mid-term scenario is that the company experiences slow growth while investors collect a rather robust dividend.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"IBM":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2341,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":174112282,"gmtCreate":1627085590346,"gmtModify":1631891339633,"author":{"id":"3573867635894284","authorId":"3573867635894284","name":"Felixt","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cdb9d8a80a3cd0176dc5aaf42013604f","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573867635894284","idStr":"3573867635894284"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Like","listText":"Like","text":"Like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/174112282","repostId":"2153980423","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2251,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":175989817,"gmtCreate":1627002519339,"gmtModify":1631891339642,"author":{"id":"3573867635894284","authorId":"3573867635894284","name":"Felixt","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cdb9d8a80a3cd0176dc5aaf42013604f","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573867635894284","idStr":"3573867635894284"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"like","listText":"like","text":"like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/175989817","repostId":"2153677788","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2173,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":172178278,"gmtCreate":1626947066994,"gmtModify":1631893642243,"author":{"id":"3573867635894284","authorId":"3573867635894284","name":"Felixt","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cdb9d8a80a3cd0176dc5aaf42013604f","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573867635894284","idStr":"3573867635894284"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"like this&nbsp;","listText":"like this&nbsp;","text":"like this","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/172178278","repostId":"2153477496","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":972,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":170160157,"gmtCreate":1626412854079,"gmtModify":1631893642255,"author":{"id":"3573867635894284","authorId":"3573867635894284","name":"Felixt","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cdb9d8a80a3cd0176dc5aaf42013604f","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573867635894284","idStr":"3573867635894284"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Like thanks&nbsp;","listText":"Like thanks&nbsp;","text":"Like thanks","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/170160157","repostId":"1128839313","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1128839313","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Stock Market Quotes, Business News, Financial News, Trading Ideas, and Stock Research by Professionals","home_visible":0,"media_name":"Benzinga Earnings","id":"1052270027","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d08bf7808052c0ca9deb4e944cae32aa"},"pubTimestamp":1626404376,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1128839313?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-16 10:59","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Why This Money Manager Says The Latest Round Of Inflation Is Permanent<blockquote>为什么这位基金经理说最新一轮通胀是永久性的</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1128839313","media":"Benzinga Earnings","summary":"Inflation has been a confusing topic throughout the summer of 2021.\nTuesday's Consumer Price Index r","content":"<p>Inflation has been a confusing topic throughout the summer of 2021.</p><p><blockquote>整个2021年夏天，通货膨胀一直是一个令人困惑的话题。</blockquote></p><p> Tuesday's Consumer Price Index report showed a 0.9% increase for the month, more than double what economists were expecting.</p><p><blockquote>周二的消费者价格指数报告显示当月上涨0.9%，是经济学家预期的两倍多。</blockquote></p><p> This could alarm investors, yet the Fed has continued to call inflation \"transitory.\"</p><p><blockquote>这可能会引起投资者的恐慌，但美联储继续将通胀看涨期权为“暂时性”。</blockquote></p><p> The non-seasonally adjusted CPI rose 5.4% year-over-year — the highest level seen since August 2008.</p><p><blockquote>未经季节性调整的CPI同比上涨5.4%，为2008年8月以来的最高水平。</blockquote></p><p> Core-CPI rose 4.5% over the year, which is the largest increase since 1991.</p><p><blockquote>核心CPI同比上涨4.5%，为1991年以来最大涨幅。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Why Navellier Says Inflation's 'Alive':</b>&nbsp;The producer price index&nbsp;rose 1% in June, surpassing economist expectations of 0.6%, money manager Louis Navellier said in a Wednesday newsletter.</p><p><blockquote><b>为什么纳维利尔说通货膨胀“依然存在”：</b>基金经理路易斯·纳维利尔 (Louis Navellier) 在周三的通讯中表示，6 月份生产者价格指数上涨 1%，超过经济学家预期的 0.6%。</blockquote></p><p> Approximately 60% of the PPI increase came from higher service costs, which tend not to backtrack, substantiating&nbsp;claims that “inflation is alive and still increasing” and&nbsp;“the latest round of inflation is now permanent,” he said.</p><p><blockquote>他说，PPI 涨幅中约有 60% 来自服务成本上升，而服务成本上升往往不会回落，这证实了 “通货膨胀依然存在，而且仍在加剧 ”和 “最新一轮通货膨胀现在是永久性的 ”的说法。</blockquote></p><p> One macro cause of the inflationary environment is a materials/supply shortage that comes amid increasing business and consumer demand, said Navellier.</p><p><blockquote>纳维利尔表示，通胀环境的一个宏观原因是商业和消费者需求不断增长的情况下出现的材料/供应短缺。</blockquote></p><p> As supply catches up with demand, upward pressures on inflation should moderate, he said.</p><p><blockquote>他表示，随着供应赶上需求，通胀上行压力应该会有所缓解。</blockquote></p><p> China, however, posted 36.7% and 32.2% increases in imports and exports, respectively, for June, indicating&nbsp;the “demand push will likely persist,” said Navellier.</p><p><blockquote>不过，中国 6 月份的进出口分别增长了 36.7% 和 32.2%，这表明 “需求的推动可能会持续下去”，纳维利耶说。</blockquote></p><p> <b>About&nbsp;Navellier:</b>&nbsp;Navellier is the chairman and co-founder of Reno, Nevada-based Navellier &amp; Associates, which manages $2.5 billion in assets. He also writes four growth investment-focused newsletters and often provides market outlook and analysis on Bloomberg, Fox News and CNBC.</p><p><blockquote><b>关于纳维利尔：</b>Navellier 是总部位于内华达州里诺的 Navellier &amp; Associates 的董事长和联合创始人，该公司管理着 25 亿美元的资产。他还撰写四份以增长投资为重点的时事通讯，并经常在彭博、福克斯新闻和美国消费者新闻与商业频道上提供市场展望和分析。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Why This Money Manager Says The Latest Round Of Inflation Is Permanent<blockquote>为什么这位基金经理说最新一轮通胀是永久性的</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhy This Money Manager Says The Latest Round Of Inflation Is Permanent<blockquote>为什么这位基金经理说最新一轮通胀是永久性的</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<div class=\"head\" \">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/d08bf7808052c0ca9deb4e944cae32aa);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Benzinga Earnings </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-07-16 10:59</p>\n</div>\n</div>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Inflation has been a confusing topic throughout the summer of 2021.</p><p><blockquote>整个2021年夏天，通货膨胀一直是一个令人困惑的话题。</blockquote></p><p> Tuesday's Consumer Price Index report showed a 0.9% increase for the month, more than double what economists were expecting.</p><p><blockquote>周二的消费者价格指数报告显示当月上涨0.9%，是经济学家预期的两倍多。</blockquote></p><p> This could alarm investors, yet the Fed has continued to call inflation \"transitory.\"</p><p><blockquote>这可能会引起投资者的恐慌，但美联储继续将通胀看涨期权为“暂时性”。</blockquote></p><p> The non-seasonally adjusted CPI rose 5.4% year-over-year — the highest level seen since August 2008.</p><p><blockquote>未经季节性调整的CPI同比上涨5.4%，为2008年8月以来的最高水平。</blockquote></p><p> Core-CPI rose 4.5% over the year, which is the largest increase since 1991.</p><p><blockquote>核心CPI同比上涨4.5%，为1991年以来最大涨幅。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Why Navellier Says Inflation's 'Alive':</b>&nbsp;The producer price index&nbsp;rose 1% in June, surpassing economist expectations of 0.6%, money manager Louis Navellier said in a Wednesday newsletter.</p><p><blockquote><b>为什么纳维利尔说通货膨胀“依然存在”：</b>基金经理路易斯·纳维利尔 (Louis Navellier) 在周三的通讯中表示，6 月份生产者价格指数上涨 1%，超过经济学家预期的 0.6%。</blockquote></p><p> Approximately 60% of the PPI increase came from higher service costs, which tend not to backtrack, substantiating&nbsp;claims that “inflation is alive and still increasing” and&nbsp;“the latest round of inflation is now permanent,” he said.</p><p><blockquote>他说，PPI 涨幅中约有 60% 来自服务成本上升，而服务成本上升往往不会回落，这证实了 “通货膨胀依然存在，而且仍在加剧 ”和 “最新一轮通货膨胀现在是永久性的 ”的说法。</blockquote></p><p> One macro cause of the inflationary environment is a materials/supply shortage that comes amid increasing business and consumer demand, said Navellier.</p><p><blockquote>纳维利尔表示，通胀环境的一个宏观原因是商业和消费者需求不断增长的情况下出现的材料/供应短缺。</blockquote></p><p> As supply catches up with demand, upward pressures on inflation should moderate, he said.</p><p><blockquote>他表示，随着供应赶上需求，通胀上行压力应该会有所缓解。</blockquote></p><p> China, however, posted 36.7% and 32.2% increases in imports and exports, respectively, for June, indicating&nbsp;the “demand push will likely persist,” said Navellier.</p><p><blockquote>不过，中国 6 月份的进出口分别增长了 36.7% 和 32.2%，这表明 “需求的推动可能会持续下去”，纳维利耶说。</blockquote></p><p> <b>About&nbsp;Navellier:</b>&nbsp;Navellier is the chairman and co-founder of Reno, Nevada-based Navellier &amp; Associates, which manages $2.5 billion in assets. He also writes four growth investment-focused newsletters and often provides market outlook and analysis on Bloomberg, Fox News and CNBC.</p><p><blockquote><b>关于纳维利尔：</b>Navellier 是总部位于内华达州里诺的 Navellier &amp; Associates 的董事长和联合创始人，该公司管理着 25 亿美元的资产。他还撰写四份以增长投资为重点的时事通讯，并经常在彭博、福克斯新闻和美国消费者新闻与商业频道上提供市场展望和分析。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SPY":"标普500ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1128839313","content_text":"Inflation has been a confusing topic throughout the summer of 2021.\nTuesday's Consumer Price Index report showed a 0.9% increase for the month, more than double what economists were expecting.\nThis could alarm investors, yet the Fed has continued to call inflation \"transitory.\"\nThe non-seasonally adjusted CPI rose 5.4% year-over-year — the highest level seen since August 2008.\nCore-CPI rose 4.5% over the year, which is the largest increase since 1991.\nWhy Navellier Says Inflation's 'Alive': The producer price index rose 1% in June, surpassing economist expectations of 0.6%, money manager Louis Navellier said in a Wednesday newsletter.\nApproximately 60% of the PPI increase came from higher service costs, which tend not to backtrack, substantiating claims that “inflation is alive and still increasing” and “the latest round of inflation is now permanent,” he said.\nOne macro cause of the inflationary environment is a materials/supply shortage that comes amid increasing business and consumer demand, said Navellier.\nAs supply catches up with demand, upward pressures on inflation should moderate, he said.\nChina, however, posted 36.7% and 32.2% increases in imports and exports, respectively, for June, indicating the “demand push will likely persist,” said Navellier.\nAbout Navellier: Navellier is the chairman and co-founder of Reno, Nevada-based Navellier & Associates, which manages $2.5 billion in assets. He also writes four growth investment-focused newsletters and often provides market outlook and analysis on Bloomberg, Fox News and CNBC.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":665,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":170187581,"gmtCreate":1626412811543,"gmtModify":1631893642267,"author":{"id":"3573867635894284","authorId":"3573867635894284","name":"Felixt","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cdb9d8a80a3cd0176dc5aaf42013604f","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573867635894284","idStr":"3573867635894284"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Like&nbsp;","listText":"Like&nbsp;","text":"Like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/170187581","repostId":"1182983865","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":865,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":144183169,"gmtCreate":1626271682951,"gmtModify":1631893642279,"author":{"id":"3573867635894284","authorId":"3573867635894284","name":"Felixt","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cdb9d8a80a3cd0176dc5aaf42013604f","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573867635894284","idStr":"3573867635894284"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Like this","listText":"Like this","text":"Like this","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/144183169","repostId":"1156462382","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1156462382","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1626270302,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1156462382?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-14 21:45","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Compass Minerals shares rises 17% in early trading<blockquote>Compass Minerals 股价早盘上涨 17%</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1156462382","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"Compass Minerals’ shares rises 17% in early trading on Wednesday after the mineral producer said it ","content":"<p>Compass Minerals’ shares rises 17% in early trading on Wednesday after the mineral producer said it had found about 2.4 million metric tons of lithium carbonate equivalent (LCE) at its solar evaporation site in Utah.</p><p><blockquote>Compass Minerals 的股价在周三早盘交易中上涨了 17%，此前这家矿产生产商表示，它在犹他州的太阳能蒸发现场发现了约 240 万公吨碳酸锂当量（LCE）。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/91984098c8c865b53eed65937700dad5\" tg-width=\"1273\" tg-height=\"587\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> The announcement, released after market hours on Tuesday, comes as demand and prices for the battery metal has climbed due to aggressive electric vehicle production plans by automakers.</p><p><blockquote>该公告于周二盘后发布，正值汽车制造商积极的电动汽车生产计划导致电池金属的需求和价格攀升之际。</blockquote></p><p> The company, which produces salt, plant nutrients and magnesium chloride, said it had identified an indicated lithium resource within the ambient brine of the Great Salt Lake.</p><p><blockquote>这家生产盐、植物营养素和氯化镁的公司表示，它已经在大盐湖的环境盐水中发现了指示的锂资源。</blockquote></p><p> A large part of lithium is extracted from brine or seawater.</p><p><blockquote>大部分锂是从盐水或海水中提取的。</blockquote></p><p> Electric vehicle batteries can use lithium carbonate or lithium hydroxide, but the industry typically uses lithium carbonate equivalent (LCE) which contains both.</p><p><blockquote>电动汽车电池可以使用碳酸锂或氢氧化锂，但工业通常使用含有两者的碳酸锂当量（LCE）。</blockquote></p><p> The company said it was evaluating the means of extracting the lithium, which accumulates through its current solar evaporation process and can be accessed through its existing leases and permits, adding that it was in late-stage talks to select a direct lithium extraction technology provider.</p><p><blockquote>该公司表示，正在评估提取锂的方法，锂是通过当前的太阳能蒸发过程积累的，可以通过现有的租赁和许可证获得，并补充说，该公司正处于选择直接锂提取技术提供商的后期谈判。</blockquote></p><p> Compass said an initial assessment estimated total combined indicated and inferred lithium resources of about 127,000 metric tons of LCE at its active Ogden site. The assessment also identified an additional indicated lithium resource of about 2.32 million metric tons of LCE.</p><p><blockquote>Compass 表示，初步评估估计其奥格登活跃基地的指示和推断锂资源总量约为 127,000 公吨 LCE。评估还确定了约 232 万公吨 LCE 的额外指示锂资源。</blockquote></p><p> The company said it was targeting an annual production capacity in the range of about 20,000 to 25,000 metric tons of LCE, with up to 65% of the future production derived from brine that has already been extracted from the Great Salt Lake.</p><p><blockquote>该公司表示，其目标是年产能约为 20,000 至 25,000 吨 LCE，其中未来产量的 65% 来自已从大盐湖提取的盐水。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Compass Minerals shares rises 17% in early trading<blockquote>Compass Minerals 股价早盘上涨 17%</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nCompass Minerals shares rises 17% in early trading<blockquote>Compass Minerals 股价早盘上涨 17%</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-07-14 21:45</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Compass Minerals’ shares rises 17% in early trading on Wednesday after the mineral producer said it had found about 2.4 million metric tons of lithium carbonate equivalent (LCE) at its solar evaporation site in Utah.</p><p><blockquote>Compass Minerals 的股价在周三早盘交易中上涨了 17%，此前这家矿产生产商表示，它在犹他州的太阳能蒸发现场发现了约 240 万公吨碳酸锂当量（LCE）。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/91984098c8c865b53eed65937700dad5\" tg-width=\"1273\" tg-height=\"587\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> The announcement, released after market hours on Tuesday, comes as demand and prices for the battery metal has climbed due to aggressive electric vehicle production plans by automakers.</p><p><blockquote>该公告于周二盘后发布，正值汽车制造商积极的电动汽车生产计划导致电池金属的需求和价格攀升之际。</blockquote></p><p> The company, which produces salt, plant nutrients and magnesium chloride, said it had identified an indicated lithium resource within the ambient brine of the Great Salt Lake.</p><p><blockquote>这家生产盐、植物营养素和氯化镁的公司表示，它已经在大盐湖的环境盐水中发现了指示的锂资源。</blockquote></p><p> A large part of lithium is extracted from brine or seawater.</p><p><blockquote>大部分锂是从盐水或海水中提取的。</blockquote></p><p> Electric vehicle batteries can use lithium carbonate or lithium hydroxide, but the industry typically uses lithium carbonate equivalent (LCE) which contains both.</p><p><blockquote>电动汽车电池可以使用碳酸锂或氢氧化锂，但工业通常使用含有两者的碳酸锂当量（LCE）。</blockquote></p><p> The company said it was evaluating the means of extracting the lithium, which accumulates through its current solar evaporation process and can be accessed through its existing leases and permits, adding that it was in late-stage talks to select a direct lithium extraction technology provider.</p><p><blockquote>该公司表示，正在评估提取锂的方法，锂是通过当前的太阳能蒸发过程积累的，可以通过现有的租赁和许可证获得，并补充说，该公司正处于选择直接锂提取技术提供商的后期谈判。</blockquote></p><p> Compass said an initial assessment estimated total combined indicated and inferred lithium resources of about 127,000 metric tons of LCE at its active Ogden site. The assessment also identified an additional indicated lithium resource of about 2.32 million metric tons of LCE.</p><p><blockquote>Compass 表示，初步评估估计其奥格登活跃基地的指示和推断锂资源总量约为 127,000 公吨 LCE。评估还确定了约 232 万公吨 LCE 的额外指示锂资源。</blockquote></p><p> The company said it was targeting an annual production capacity in the range of about 20,000 to 25,000 metric tons of LCE, with up to 65% of the future production derived from brine that has already been extracted from the Great Salt Lake.</p><p><blockquote>该公司表示，其目标是年产能约为 20,000 至 25,000 吨 LCE，其中未来产量的 65% 来自已从大盐湖提取的盐水。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"CMP":"罗盘矿物"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1156462382","content_text":"Compass Minerals’ shares rises 17% in early trading on Wednesday after the mineral producer said it had found about 2.4 million metric tons of lithium carbonate equivalent (LCE) at its solar evaporation site in Utah.\n\nThe announcement, released after market hours on Tuesday, comes as demand and prices for the battery metal has climbed due to aggressive electric vehicle production plans by automakers.\nThe company, which produces salt, plant nutrients and magnesium chloride, said it had identified an indicated lithium resource within the ambient brine of the Great Salt Lake.\nA large part of lithium is extracted from brine or seawater.\nElectric vehicle batteries can use lithium carbonate or lithium hydroxide, but the industry typically uses lithium carbonate equivalent (LCE) which contains both.\nThe company said it was evaluating the means of extracting the lithium, which accumulates through its current solar evaporation process and can be accessed through its existing leases and permits, adding that it was in late-stage talks to select a direct lithium extraction technology provider.\nCompass said an initial assessment estimated total combined indicated and inferred lithium resources of about 127,000 metric tons of LCE at its active Ogden site. The assessment also identified an additional indicated lithium resource of about 2.32 million metric tons of LCE.\nThe company said it was targeting an annual production capacity in the range of about 20,000 to 25,000 metric tons of LCE, with up to 65% of the future production derived from brine that has already been extracted from the Great Salt Lake.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"CMP":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1270,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":141897295,"gmtCreate":1625845386417,"gmtModify":1631893642294,"author":{"id":"3573867635894284","authorId":"3573867635894284","name":"Felixt","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cdb9d8a80a3cd0176dc5aaf42013604f","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573867635894284","idStr":"3573867635894284"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Cool","listText":"Cool","text":"Cool","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/141897295","repostId":"1155625151","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":735,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":143793933,"gmtCreate":1625815451322,"gmtModify":1631893642299,"author":{"id":"3573867635894284","authorId":"3573867635894284","name":"Felixt","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cdb9d8a80a3cd0176dc5aaf42013604f","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573867635894284","idStr":"3573867635894284"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Great","listText":"Great","text":"Great","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/143793933","repostId":"1143190074","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1143190074","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1625814318,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1143190074?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-09 15:05","market":"us","language":"en","title":"‘You don’t have to be fully invested’ in the stock market today amid excess and speculation, says veteran investor Jim Stack<blockquote>资深投资者吉姆-斯塔克（Jim Stack）表示，在过度和投机的情况下，今天的股市“不必完全投资”。</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1143190074","media":"Marketwatch","summary":"Since he called the 1987 stock market crash as a young analyst, Jim Stack has been one of the leadin","content":"<p>Since he called the 1987 stock market crash as a young analyst, Jim Stack has been one of the leading market contrarians.</p><p><blockquote>自从作为一名年轻分析师预测 1987 年股市崩盘以来，吉姆·斯塔克 (Jim Stack) 一直是领先的市场逆向投资者之一。</blockquote></p><p> Based in Whitefish, Montana, he pursues a “safety-first” approach in his Investech Research newsletter and in his money-management firm, Stack Financial Management, which manage $1.5 billion in assets. Stack has also been featured in Barron’s list of top investment advisers.</p><p><blockquote>他常驻蒙大拿州怀特菲什，在他的 Investech 研究通讯和管理 15 亿美元资产的资金管理公司 Stack Financial Management 中奉行 “安全第一 ”的方针。Stack 还入选了《巴伦周刊》顶级投资顾问名单。</blockquote></p><p> When I interviewed him late last week, he was worried Wall Street wasn’t paying enough attention to the many speculative excesses in the markets and the Federal Reserve was too complacent on inflation.</p><p><blockquote>上周末我采访他时，他担心华尔街对市场上的许多过度投机行为关注不够，美联储对通胀过于自满。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Howard Gold:</b>In your latest issue of Investech Research, you said the Federal Reserve reversed its hawkish stance and started unwinding its interest rate hikes out of fear back in December 2018. Could you tell us how that may have set the stage for some of the things that have happened since?</p><p><blockquote><b>霍华德·戈尔德：</b>在最新一期的 Investech Research 中，您表示美联储在 2018 年 12 月扭转了鹰派立场，并出于恐惧开始放松加息。你能告诉我们这可能是如何为此后发生的一些事情奠定基础的吗？</blockquote></p><p> <b>Jim Stack:</b>As we’re going into 2019, this economic recovery was already one of the longest economic recoveries in U.S. history. But the Fed had started raising interest rates, and the stock market took notice, and we had the worst December since the Great Depression. So the Fed immediately reversed and said, oh, well, we really didn’t mean it and it wasn’t long after that, that they started bringing interest rates back down again. And so, they brought the punchbowl back to the party and, particularly when the pandemic hit, they decided to add more and more alcohol to it, to where right now, I think there’s a lot of participants on Wall Street investing like they’re a little bit inebriated, even as the PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditures price index), the Fed’s favorite inflation tool, goes way above their 2% target.</p><p><blockquote><b>吉姆·斯塔克：</b>进入 2019 年，这次经济复苏已经是美国历史上持续时间最长的经济复苏之一。但美联储已经开始加息，股市也注意到了这一点，我们经历了大萧条以来最糟糕的12月。因此，美联储立即反悔，说，哦，好吧，我们真的不是这个意思，没过多久，他们又开始降低利率。因此，他们把潘趣酒带回了派对，尤其是在大流行病来袭的时候，他们决定在其中加入越来越多的酒精，现在，我认为华尔街有很多参与者都在投资，就像他们有点喝醉了一样，即使美联储最喜欢的通胀工具 PCE（个人消费支出价格指数）远远高于他们 2% 的目标。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Gold:</b>Where do you see inflation now, and how has the Fed policy affected that?</p><p><blockquote><b>黄金：</b>您现在如何看待通货膨胀？美联储政策对此有何影响？</blockquote></p><p> <b>Stack:</b>We’re reemerging from a pandemic where everything was shut down and all of a sudden there’s a very strong demand and a very poor supply chain. And those kinds of pressures the Fed has been arguing can be transitory. The problem is that a lot of the inflation pressures we’re seeing today are not transitory. [The Fed could not get the PCE] above 2%, except for several months, all the way from 2009 until this year, but all of a sudden, it’s gone right through the 2% threshold, up to 3.1%. I think it just recently hit 3.5%, and I think it’s also a lot stickier. The Atlanta Fed has come out with what they call a Sticky Price Consumer Price Index, and it includes goods and services that don’t change in price very often. But when they do change, they continue to increase. These would be things like medical care, car insurance or alcoholic beverages. And this Sticky Price CPI has moved up to the highest level in 30 years. The Fed is going to get higher inflation. And I think the prices over the coming months are going to be on the upside. And that’s where we could see trouble in a stock market that has become one of the most interest-rate-sensitive markets in history.</p><p><blockquote><b>堆栈：</b>我们正在从大流行病中重新崛起，在大流行病中，一切都被关闭了，突然之间，需求非常强劲，供应链却非常糟糕。美联储一直认为的这些压力可能是暂时的。问题是，我们今天看到的很多通胀压力都不是暂时的。从 2009 年到今年，除了几个月的时间外，[美联储无法让 PCE] 超过 2%，但突然间，它就直接突破了 2% 的门槛，达到了 3.1%。我认为它最近刚刚达到 3.5%，而且我认为它的粘性也更强。亚特兰大联储发布了他们看涨期权的粘性价格消费者价格指数，其中包括价格变化不大的商品和服务。但是当它们确实改变时，它们会继续增加。这些包括医疗保健、汽车保险或酒精饮料。而这种粘性的价格CPI已经升至30年来的最高水平。美联储将面临更高的通胀。我认为未来几个月的价格将会上涨。这就是我们在股市中看到麻烦的地方，因为股市已成为历史上对利率最敏感的市场之一。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Gold:</b>The bond market is not showing much fear of inflation. We’ve seen the 10-year Treasury note for the last few weeks yielding between 1.45% and maybe a little over 1.5% and it peaked at around 1.76%. (It yielded 1.30% on Thursday.) So are bond investors wrong about this? Is it wishful thinking that they really can’t see inflation coming?</p><p><blockquote><b>黄金：</b>债券市场并没有表现出太多对通货膨胀的担忧。过去几周，我们看到 10 年期国库券的收益率在 1.45% 之间，可能略高于 1.5%，最高收益率约为 1.76%。（周四收益率为1.30%。）那么债券投资者对此有错吗？认为他们真的看不到通货膨胀的到来是一厢情愿的想法吗？</blockquote></p><p> <b>Stack:</b>I don’t think I’d call it wishful thinking; I’d call it perhaps misplaced trust in the Fed, [which] has been trying to talk down inflation, trying to convince everyone that this is going to be transitory. And in the Fed meeting a couple of weeks ago, it was widely thought, they’re going to acknowledge that we are seeing some upside surprises on inflation, and they’re going to start at least putting a cap on the punchbowl and maybe stop the bond purchases. Instead, the Fed reiterated, we’re going to keep adding to that punchbowl out of conviction that this inflation was transitory.</p><p><blockquote><b>堆栈：</b>我不认为我会一厢情愿地看涨期权；我认为，这可能是对美联储的信任错位了，[美联储]一直在试图降低通胀，试图让所有人相信这将是暂时的。在几周前的美联储会议上，人们普遍认为，他们将承认我们正在看到一些通胀上行的意外，他们将至少开始给潘趣酒碗设置上限，也许会停止购买债券。相反，美联储重申，我们将继续在这个潘趣酒碗里添油加醋，因为我们确信这次通胀是暂时的。</blockquote></p><p> And I think from our experience back in the 1970s, you have to live through those big inflationary cycles to find out how wrong or how far behind the curve the Fed can be. That’s my concern today: The Fed is being very convincing and I think that’s what brought the bond yields down since that Fed meeting several weeks ago. I wouldn’t be surprised if inflation is sticky, if we see upside surprises and if we see particularly strong employment reports, I wouldn’t be surprised to see 10-year bond yields go back up and start pushing toward that 2% threshold.</p><p><blockquote>我认为，根据我们 20 世纪 70 年代的经验，你必须经历那些大通胀周期，才能发现美联储的错误程度或落后曲线多远。这就是我今天所担心的： 美联储的表现非常令人信服，我认为这就是自几周前美联储会议以来债券收益率下降的原因。如果通胀有粘性，如果我们看到上行的意外，如果我们看到特别强劲的就业报告，我不会感到惊讶，如果看到 10 年期债券收益率回升并开始向 2% 的门槛迈进，我也不会感到惊讶。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Gold:</b>How do you separate transitory price increases from sticky ones?</p><p><blockquote><b>黄金：</b>如何区分暂时性价格上涨和粘性价格上涨？</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <b>Stack:</b>Housing costs and prices make up almost 40% of the CPI, and about half of that comes from owners’ equivalent rent [the amount of&nbsp;rent&nbsp;that&nbsp;would&nbsp;have to be paid if an owner’s house were a rental property], which typically will track the price of housing. And we have seen one of the greatest increases in housing prices nationally over the past 12 months, at least going back to the high inflation period of the ’70s. Rent follows those prices and that means that if anything, those numbers going into the owner’s equivalent rent and subsequently going into the CPI are going to surprise to the upside.</p><p><blockquote><b>堆栈：</b>住房成本和价格几乎占 CPI 的 40%，其中约一半来自业主等值租金（如果业主的房屋是出租房产，则必须支付的租金金额），这通常会跟踪房价。在过去的 12 个月里，我们看到了全国房价涨幅最大的一次，至少可以追溯到 70 年代的高通胀时期。租金跟随这些价格，这意味着，如果说有什么不同的话，那就是这些计入业主等值租金以及随后计入 CPI 的数字将会出人意料地上涨。</blockquote></p><p> In 2005, we invented our Housing Bellwether Barometer, that told us we’re in a housing bubble because housing prices were 35% above the long-term inflationary trend. And sure enough, we were, and housing prices came down to, and actually a little under, that long-term inflation or CPI index. Well, today we’re over 43% above it. In other words, we have more of an upside disparity between housing prices and long-term inflation than we did in the housing bubble in 2005.</p><p><blockquote>2005 年，我们发明了住房风向标晴雨表，它告诉我们，我们正处于住房泡沫之中，因为房价比长期通胀趋势高出 35%。果然，我们做到了，房价降至长期通胀或CPI指数，实际上略低于长期通胀或CPI指数。今天我们比它高出 43% 以上。换句话说，与2005年的房地产泡沫相比，我们的房价和长期通胀之间的上行差异更大。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Gold:</b>I interviewed the chief economist of Redfin who pointed out that thesupply of homes is very, very lowbecause older people are staying in their homes while you have pent-up demand from millennials who are now reaching home-buying age at the same time people are migrating out of cities following the pandemic. Are there special circumstances here?</p><p><blockquote><b>黄金：</b>我采访了Redfin的首席经济学家，他指出，住房供应量非常非常低，因为老年人呆在家里，而千禧一代的需求被压抑，他们现在已经达到了购房年龄，与此同时，人们正在迁出疫情之后的城市。这里有什么特殊情况吗？</blockquote></p><p> <b>Stack:</b>You’re obviously seeing an influx of demand. We live in the Flathead Valley in Northwest Montana, and our housing prices have gone ballistic. And it seems that everyone’s quitting their job to become a realtor.</p><p><blockquote><b>堆栈：</b>你显然看到了需求的涌入。我们住在蒙大拿州西北部的平头谷，我们的房价一路飙升。似乎每个人都在辞职去做房地产经纪人。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Gold:</b>That’s an indicator for you!</p><p><blockquote><b>黄金：</b>这是给你的一个指标!</blockquote></p><p> <b>Stack:</b>It brings back all the memories of 2005-2006.</p><p><blockquote><b>堆栈：</b>它勾起了2005-2006年的所有记忆。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Gold:</b>Are there bidding wars and all-cash offers in your neck of the woods, too?</p><p><blockquote><b>黄金：</b>你所在的地区也有竞价战和全现金报价吗？</blockquote></p><p> <b>Stack:</b>Very much so. You’re seeing multiple offers above the asking price and that’s happening in many high-demand areas of the country where people will want to move or own a second home.</p><p><blockquote><b>堆栈：</b>非常如此。你会看到多个高于要价的报价，这种情况发生在全国许多高需求地区，人们都想搬家或拥有第二套住房。</blockquote></p><p> When you end up with a speculative psychology, it tends to spill over into multiple asset classes, not just stock market valuations, where they are above the 90th or 95th percentile by most historical measures. Stocks are very, very expensive, historically speaking, but we’re seeing it in real estate, of course, we’ve seen it in cryptocurrencies, like bitcoinBTCUSD,0.26%shot up to $60,000 and now is struggling to stay above $30,000</p><p><blockquote>当你最终产生投机心理时，它往往会蔓延到多种资产类别，而不仅仅是股市估值，根据大多数历史指标，股市估值都高于第 90 或 95 百分位数。从历史上看，股票非常非常昂贵，但我们在房地产中看到了这一点，当然，我们在加密货币中也看到了这一点，比如比特币BTCUSD，0.26%飙升至6万美元，现在正在努力保持在3万美元以上。</blockquote></p><p> We’ve developed several tools over the years to try to tackle or track that psychology. Recently, we invented our Canary in the Coal Mine index. It’s comprised of 20 of the most notable targets of speculation that have gone parabolic since the pandemic low. If you track the peaks in that speculation and see when that washes out, you’re going to have a handle on when the trouble is going to start permeating into the rest of the market.</p><p><blockquote>多年来，我们开发了几种工具来试图解决或跟踪这种心理。最近，我们在煤矿指数中发明了我们的金丝雀。它由 20 个最引人注目的投机目标组成，这些目标自大流行病低点以来一直呈抛物线状。如果你追踪投机的高峰，看看什么时候会消退，你就能知道麻烦何时会开始蔓延到市场的其他部分。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Gold:</b>Where do you see the most speculative excess now?</p><p><blockquote><b>黄金：</b>你认为现在哪里投机性过剩最多？</blockquote></p><p> <b>Stack:</b>Today, I think [speculative excess] is spilling over into all of the new IPOs, the SPACs (special purpose acquisition companies). We’re raising money and we don’t know what we’re going to do with it, but we’re going to buy something that makes money. And then we’ve got the new NFTs, non-fungible tokens, digital art — I don’t know if I can even describe adequately what it is other than the fact that it’s not really a physical asset. It is a digital image that you own, but everyone else has a right to see, use and everything. I’ll tell you, it’s so extreme, it’s almost nonsensical. But it’s not unusual. From what we saw in the late 1990s, when companies could go public and had never made a penny, we’re starting to see a lot of that today in the meme stocks [so popular with the] new young traders.</p><p><blockquote><b>堆栈：</b>今天，我认为[投机过剩]正在蔓延到所有新的IPO，即SPAC（特殊目的收购公司）。我们正在筹集资金，我们不知道该怎么处理，但我们要买一些能赚钱的东西。还有新的 NFT、不可替代的代币、数字艺术--除了它并不是一种真正的实物资产之外，我甚至不知道我是否还能充分描述它是什么。这是你拥有的数字图像，但其他人都有权看到、使用和拥有一切。我告诉你，这太极端了，几乎是荒谬的。但这并不罕见。从我们在 20 世纪 90 年代末看到的情况来看，当时公司可以上市，却从未赚到一分钱，如今我们开始在 [深受]年轻交易者欢迎的 meme 股票中看到很多这种情况。</blockquote></p><p> You learn a couple of things as you go through these speculative excesses. Number one, bubbles can never be definitively guaranteed or identified until afterward. The second thing is that the bubble is invisible to those inside the bubble. In other words, don’t go to someone investing in NFTs and try to tell them that they’re speculating in a bubble that could be almost worthless by the time it washes out, because you’re going to get in an argument that you can’t win except in the aftermath.</p><p><blockquote>当你经历这些投机过度时，你会学到一些东西。第一，在事后之前，泡沫永远无法得到明确的保证或识别。第二件事是，泡沫对泡沫内部的人来说是看不见的。换句话说，不要去找投资 NFT 的人，试图告诉他们，他们是在一个泡沫中进行投机，而泡沫在泡沫破灭时可能几乎一文不值，因为你会陷入一场只有在事后才能赢的争论。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Gold:</b>You’re talking about a possibility of both inflation and some big selloff in highly overvalued asset classes. That’s a tough market environment, so where do you think people should put their money and not put their money now?</p><p><blockquote><b>黄金：</b>你说的是通货膨胀和高估值资产类别大幅抛售的可能性。这是一个艰难的市场环境，所以你认为人们应该把钱放在哪里，而不是现在？</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <b>Stack:</b>We are in one of the most overvalued markets in history and one of the most speculative excess periods in history, so you don’t have to be fully invested today. For our portfolio, we are short-term constructive on the market because we’re giving it the benefit of doubt, but we’re still carrying a 20% cash reserve just because it allows us to sleep at night. If you’re going to invest in today’s market, don’t go out buying the SPACs or the stocks that have infinite PE ratios, because they have yet to make earnings. I would put higher allocations into those sectors that are going to benefit from, or at least be resilient to, increasing inflation. If inflation is sticky, if it stays higher, if we do see interest rates start to rise in terms of normalizing, then you want to be in sectors like the energy sector.</p><p><blockquote><b>堆栈：</b>我们正处于历史上估值最高的市场之一，也是历史上投机性最强的过度时期之一，因此您今天不必全额投资。就我们的投资组合而言，我们在短期内对市场持建设性态度，因为我们对市场持怀疑态度，但我们仍然持有 20% 的现金储备，只是因为它能让我们晚上睡个好觉。如果你打算投资今天的市场，不要出去购买 SPAC 或市盈率无限的股票，因为它们还没有盈利。我会向那些将从通胀上升中受益或至少对通胀上升具有弹性的行业增加拨款。如果通胀具有粘性，如果通胀保持在较高水平，如果我们确实看到利率在正常化方面开始上升，那么你希望进入能源行业等行业。</blockquote></p><p> Now for purposes of disclosure, we do own these stocks in our clients’ accounts at Stack Financial Management. ConocoPhillips&nbsp;is one of the world’s largest independent exploration and production companies, and oil prices&nbsp;are over $70 a barrel. I wouldn’t be surprised to see them continue to move higher through the year. The materials sector can benefit from rising commodity prices, and I think a company like Eastman Chemical&nbsp;will do very well, and it pays a 2.4% dividend yield.</p><p><blockquote>现在，为了披露起见，我们确实在客户在 Stack Financial Management 的账户中拥有这些股票。康菲石油公司是世界上最大的独立勘探和生产公司之一，油价超过每桶 70 美元。如果他们在这一年中继续走高，我不会感到惊讶。材料行业可以受益于大宗商品价格上涨，我认为像伊士曼化学这样的公司会做得很好，而且它支付2.4%的股息收益率。</blockquote></p><p> In the health-care sector, one of the stocks we’re holding is United&nbsp;Health Group&nbsp;and carries a trailing P/E of only 23 times still pays a couple percent dividends, which is higher than the 10-year Treasury bond yield&nbsp;.</p><p><blockquote>在医疗保健领域，我们持有的股票之一是联合健康集团（United Health Group），其历史市盈率仅为 23 倍，但仍支付百分之几的股息，高于 10 年期国债收益率。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Gold:</b>Obviously there are plenty of ETFs in these sectors — you said materials, energy — any others that you like or that you would avoid?</p><p><blockquote><b>黄金：</b>显然，这些行业中有很多 ETF——你说的是材料、能源——还有你喜欢或会避免的其他行业吗？</blockquote></p><p> <b>Stack:</b>If you’re going to invest in ETFs, you can look at energy, materials or health care or, on the defensive side, consumer staples. They’re out of favor right now, but they’re carrying some of the better valuations in this market. Value is what you want to be going for because we’ve seen a great divergence between growth and value, and growth has led the way out of the pandemic, but it’s also carrying some of the highest extreme valuations in the market. And when the Fed does decide to start taking the punchbowl away, that’s where the pains can be felt the greatest. So, again, think safety first, and walk softly and carry a comfortable cash reserve.</p><p><blockquote><b>堆栈：</b>如果您打算投资 ETF，可以关注能源、材料或医疗保健，或者从防御性角度来看，可以关注必需消费品。它们现在不受欢迎，但在这个市场上，它们的估值较高。价值是你想要追求的，因为我们已经看到增长和价值之间的巨大背离，增长引领了大流行病的走出，但它也承载着市场上最高的极端估值。当美联储决定开始拿走潘趣酒碗时，那才是最大的痛苦。所以，还是那句话，安全第一，轻轻地走路，携带舒适的现金储备。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"market_watch","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>‘You don’t have to be fully invested’ in the stock market today amid excess and speculation, says veteran investor Jim Stack<blockquote>资深投资者吉姆-斯塔克（Jim Stack）表示，在过度和投机的情况下，今天的股市“不必完全投资”。</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n‘You don’t have to be fully invested’ in the stock market today amid excess and speculation, says veteran investor Jim Stack<blockquote>资深投资者吉姆-斯塔克（Jim Stack）表示，在过度和投机的情况下，今天的股市“不必完全投资”。</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Marketwatch</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-09 15:05</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Since he called the 1987 stock market crash as a young analyst, Jim Stack has been one of the leading market contrarians.</p><p><blockquote>自从作为一名年轻分析师预测 1987 年股市崩盘以来，吉姆·斯塔克 (Jim Stack) 一直是领先的市场逆向投资者之一。</blockquote></p><p> Based in Whitefish, Montana, he pursues a “safety-first” approach in his Investech Research newsletter and in his money-management firm, Stack Financial Management, which manage $1.5 billion in assets. Stack has also been featured in Barron’s list of top investment advisers.</p><p><blockquote>他常驻蒙大拿州怀特菲什，在他的 Investech 研究通讯和管理 15 亿美元资产的资金管理公司 Stack Financial Management 中奉行 “安全第一 ”的方针。Stack 还入选了《巴伦周刊》顶级投资顾问名单。</blockquote></p><p> When I interviewed him late last week, he was worried Wall Street wasn’t paying enough attention to the many speculative excesses in the markets and the Federal Reserve was too complacent on inflation.</p><p><blockquote>上周末我采访他时，他担心华尔街对市场上的许多过度投机行为关注不够，美联储对通胀过于自满。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Howard Gold:</b>In your latest issue of Investech Research, you said the Federal Reserve reversed its hawkish stance and started unwinding its interest rate hikes out of fear back in December 2018. Could you tell us how that may have set the stage for some of the things that have happened since?</p><p><blockquote><b>霍华德·戈尔德：</b>在最新一期的 Investech Research 中，您表示美联储在 2018 年 12 月扭转了鹰派立场，并出于恐惧开始放松加息。你能告诉我们这可能是如何为此后发生的一些事情奠定基础的吗？</blockquote></p><p> <b>Jim Stack:</b>As we’re going into 2019, this economic recovery was already one of the longest economic recoveries in U.S. history. But the Fed had started raising interest rates, and the stock market took notice, and we had the worst December since the Great Depression. So the Fed immediately reversed and said, oh, well, we really didn’t mean it and it wasn’t long after that, that they started bringing interest rates back down again. And so, they brought the punchbowl back to the party and, particularly when the pandemic hit, they decided to add more and more alcohol to it, to where right now, I think there’s a lot of participants on Wall Street investing like they’re a little bit inebriated, even as the PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditures price index), the Fed’s favorite inflation tool, goes way above their 2% target.</p><p><blockquote><b>吉姆·斯塔克：</b>进入 2019 年，这次经济复苏已经是美国历史上持续时间最长的经济复苏之一。但美联储已经开始加息，股市也注意到了这一点，我们经历了大萧条以来最糟糕的12月。因此，美联储立即反悔，说，哦，好吧，我们真的不是这个意思，没过多久，他们又开始降低利率。因此，他们把潘趣酒带回了派对，尤其是在大流行病来袭的时候，他们决定在其中加入越来越多的酒精，现在，我认为华尔街有很多参与者都在投资，就像他们有点喝醉了一样，即使美联储最喜欢的通胀工具 PCE（个人消费支出价格指数）远远高于他们 2% 的目标。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Gold:</b>Where do you see inflation now, and how has the Fed policy affected that?</p><p><blockquote><b>黄金：</b>您现在如何看待通货膨胀？美联储政策对此有何影响？</blockquote></p><p> <b>Stack:</b>We’re reemerging from a pandemic where everything was shut down and all of a sudden there’s a very strong demand and a very poor supply chain. And those kinds of pressures the Fed has been arguing can be transitory. The problem is that a lot of the inflation pressures we’re seeing today are not transitory. [The Fed could not get the PCE] above 2%, except for several months, all the way from 2009 until this year, but all of a sudden, it’s gone right through the 2% threshold, up to 3.1%. I think it just recently hit 3.5%, and I think it’s also a lot stickier. The Atlanta Fed has come out with what they call a Sticky Price Consumer Price Index, and it includes goods and services that don’t change in price very often. But when they do change, they continue to increase. These would be things like medical care, car insurance or alcoholic beverages. And this Sticky Price CPI has moved up to the highest level in 30 years. The Fed is going to get higher inflation. And I think the prices over the coming months are going to be on the upside. And that’s where we could see trouble in a stock market that has become one of the most interest-rate-sensitive markets in history.</p><p><blockquote><b>堆栈：</b>我们正在从大流行病中重新崛起，在大流行病中，一切都被关闭了，突然之间，需求非常强劲，供应链却非常糟糕。美联储一直认为的这些压力可能是暂时的。问题是，我们今天看到的很多通胀压力都不是暂时的。从 2009 年到今年，除了几个月的时间外，[美联储无法让 PCE] 超过 2%，但突然间，它就直接突破了 2% 的门槛，达到了 3.1%。我认为它最近刚刚达到 3.5%，而且我认为它的粘性也更强。亚特兰大联储发布了他们看涨期权的粘性价格消费者价格指数，其中包括价格变化不大的商品和服务。但是当它们确实改变时，它们会继续增加。这些包括医疗保健、汽车保险或酒精饮料。而这种粘性的价格CPI已经升至30年来的最高水平。美联储将面临更高的通胀。我认为未来几个月的价格将会上涨。这就是我们在股市中看到麻烦的地方，因为股市已成为历史上对利率最敏感的市场之一。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Gold:</b>The bond market is not showing much fear of inflation. We’ve seen the 10-year Treasury note for the last few weeks yielding between 1.45% and maybe a little over 1.5% and it peaked at around 1.76%. (It yielded 1.30% on Thursday.) So are bond investors wrong about this? Is it wishful thinking that they really can’t see inflation coming?</p><p><blockquote><b>黄金：</b>债券市场并没有表现出太多对通货膨胀的担忧。过去几周，我们看到 10 年期国库券的收益率在 1.45% 之间，可能略高于 1.5%，最高收益率约为 1.76%。（周四收益率为1.30%。）那么债券投资者对此有错吗？认为他们真的看不到通货膨胀的到来是一厢情愿的想法吗？</blockquote></p><p> <b>Stack:</b>I don’t think I’d call it wishful thinking; I’d call it perhaps misplaced trust in the Fed, [which] has been trying to talk down inflation, trying to convince everyone that this is going to be transitory. And in the Fed meeting a couple of weeks ago, it was widely thought, they’re going to acknowledge that we are seeing some upside surprises on inflation, and they’re going to start at least putting a cap on the punchbowl and maybe stop the bond purchases. Instead, the Fed reiterated, we’re going to keep adding to that punchbowl out of conviction that this inflation was transitory.</p><p><blockquote><b>堆栈：</b>我不认为我会一厢情愿地看涨期权；我认为，这可能是对美联储的信任错位了，[美联储]一直在试图降低通胀，试图让所有人相信这将是暂时的。在几周前的美联储会议上，人们普遍认为，他们将承认我们正在看到一些通胀上行的意外，他们将至少开始给潘趣酒碗设置上限，也许会停止购买债券。相反，美联储重申，我们将继续在这个潘趣酒碗里添油加醋，因为我们确信这次通胀是暂时的。</blockquote></p><p> And I think from our experience back in the 1970s, you have to live through those big inflationary cycles to find out how wrong or how far behind the curve the Fed can be. That’s my concern today: The Fed is being very convincing and I think that’s what brought the bond yields down since that Fed meeting several weeks ago. I wouldn’t be surprised if inflation is sticky, if we see upside surprises and if we see particularly strong employment reports, I wouldn’t be surprised to see 10-year bond yields go back up and start pushing toward that 2% threshold.</p><p><blockquote>我认为，根据我们 20 世纪 70 年代的经验，你必须经历那些大通胀周期，才能发现美联储的错误程度或落后曲线多远。这就是我今天所担心的： 美联储的表现非常令人信服，我认为这就是自几周前美联储会议以来债券收益率下降的原因。如果通胀有粘性，如果我们看到上行的意外，如果我们看到特别强劲的就业报告，我不会感到惊讶，如果看到 10 年期债券收益率回升并开始向 2% 的门槛迈进，我也不会感到惊讶。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Gold:</b>How do you separate transitory price increases from sticky ones?</p><p><blockquote><b>黄金：</b>如何区分暂时性价格上涨和粘性价格上涨？</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <b>Stack:</b>Housing costs and prices make up almost 40% of the CPI, and about half of that comes from owners’ equivalent rent [the amount of&nbsp;rent&nbsp;that&nbsp;would&nbsp;have to be paid if an owner’s house were a rental property], which typically will track the price of housing. And we have seen one of the greatest increases in housing prices nationally over the past 12 months, at least going back to the high inflation period of the ’70s. Rent follows those prices and that means that if anything, those numbers going into the owner’s equivalent rent and subsequently going into the CPI are going to surprise to the upside.</p><p><blockquote><b>堆栈：</b>住房成本和价格几乎占 CPI 的 40%，其中约一半来自业主等值租金（如果业主的房屋是出租房产，则必须支付的租金金额），这通常会跟踪房价。在过去的 12 个月里，我们看到了全国房价涨幅最大的一次，至少可以追溯到 70 年代的高通胀时期。租金跟随这些价格，这意味着，如果说有什么不同的话，那就是这些计入业主等值租金以及随后计入 CPI 的数字将会出人意料地上涨。</blockquote></p><p> In 2005, we invented our Housing Bellwether Barometer, that told us we’re in a housing bubble because housing prices were 35% above the long-term inflationary trend. And sure enough, we were, and housing prices came down to, and actually a little under, that long-term inflation or CPI index. Well, today we’re over 43% above it. In other words, we have more of an upside disparity between housing prices and long-term inflation than we did in the housing bubble in 2005.</p><p><blockquote>2005 年，我们发明了住房风向标晴雨表，它告诉我们，我们正处于住房泡沫之中，因为房价比长期通胀趋势高出 35%。果然，我们做到了，房价降至长期通胀或CPI指数，实际上略低于长期通胀或CPI指数。今天我们比它高出 43% 以上。换句话说，与2005年的房地产泡沫相比，我们的房价和长期通胀之间的上行差异更大。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Gold:</b>I interviewed the chief economist of Redfin who pointed out that thesupply of homes is very, very lowbecause older people are staying in their homes while you have pent-up demand from millennials who are now reaching home-buying age at the same time people are migrating out of cities following the pandemic. Are there special circumstances here?</p><p><blockquote><b>黄金：</b>我采访了Redfin的首席经济学家，他指出，住房供应量非常非常低，因为老年人呆在家里，而千禧一代的需求被压抑，他们现在已经达到了购房年龄，与此同时，人们正在迁出疫情之后的城市。这里有什么特殊情况吗？</blockquote></p><p> <b>Stack:</b>You’re obviously seeing an influx of demand. We live in the Flathead Valley in Northwest Montana, and our housing prices have gone ballistic. And it seems that everyone’s quitting their job to become a realtor.</p><p><blockquote><b>堆栈：</b>你显然看到了需求的涌入。我们住在蒙大拿州西北部的平头谷，我们的房价一路飙升。似乎每个人都在辞职去做房地产经纪人。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Gold:</b>That’s an indicator for you!</p><p><blockquote><b>黄金：</b>这是给你的一个指标!</blockquote></p><p> <b>Stack:</b>It brings back all the memories of 2005-2006.</p><p><blockquote><b>堆栈：</b>它勾起了2005-2006年的所有记忆。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Gold:</b>Are there bidding wars and all-cash offers in your neck of the woods, too?</p><p><blockquote><b>黄金：</b>你所在的地区也有竞价战和全现金报价吗？</blockquote></p><p> <b>Stack:</b>Very much so. You’re seeing multiple offers above the asking price and that’s happening in many high-demand areas of the country where people will want to move or own a second home.</p><p><blockquote><b>堆栈：</b>非常如此。你会看到多个高于要价的报价，这种情况发生在全国许多高需求地区，人们都想搬家或拥有第二套住房。</blockquote></p><p> When you end up with a speculative psychology, it tends to spill over into multiple asset classes, not just stock market valuations, where they are above the 90th or 95th percentile by most historical measures. Stocks are very, very expensive, historically speaking, but we’re seeing it in real estate, of course, we’ve seen it in cryptocurrencies, like bitcoinBTCUSD,0.26%shot up to $60,000 and now is struggling to stay above $30,000</p><p><blockquote>当你最终产生投机心理时，它往往会蔓延到多种资产类别，而不仅仅是股市估值，根据大多数历史指标，股市估值都高于第 90 或 95 百分位数。从历史上看，股票非常非常昂贵，但我们在房地产中看到了这一点，当然，我们在加密货币中也看到了这一点，比如比特币BTCUSD，0.26%飙升至6万美元，现在正在努力保持在3万美元以上。</blockquote></p><p> We’ve developed several tools over the years to try to tackle or track that psychology. Recently, we invented our Canary in the Coal Mine index. It’s comprised of 20 of the most notable targets of speculation that have gone parabolic since the pandemic low. If you track the peaks in that speculation and see when that washes out, you’re going to have a handle on when the trouble is going to start permeating into the rest of the market.</p><p><blockquote>多年来，我们开发了几种工具来试图解决或跟踪这种心理。最近，我们在煤矿指数中发明了我们的金丝雀。它由 20 个最引人注目的投机目标组成，这些目标自大流行病低点以来一直呈抛物线状。如果你追踪投机的高峰，看看什么时候会消退，你就能知道麻烦何时会开始蔓延到市场的其他部分。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Gold:</b>Where do you see the most speculative excess now?</p><p><blockquote><b>黄金：</b>你认为现在哪里投机性过剩最多？</blockquote></p><p> <b>Stack:</b>Today, I think [speculative excess] is spilling over into all of the new IPOs, the SPACs (special purpose acquisition companies). We’re raising money and we don’t know what we’re going to do with it, but we’re going to buy something that makes money. And then we’ve got the new NFTs, non-fungible tokens, digital art — I don’t know if I can even describe adequately what it is other than the fact that it’s not really a physical asset. It is a digital image that you own, but everyone else has a right to see, use and everything. I’ll tell you, it’s so extreme, it’s almost nonsensical. But it’s not unusual. From what we saw in the late 1990s, when companies could go public and had never made a penny, we’re starting to see a lot of that today in the meme stocks [so popular with the] new young traders.</p><p><blockquote><b>堆栈：</b>今天，我认为[投机过剩]正在蔓延到所有新的IPO，即SPAC（特殊目的收购公司）。我们正在筹集资金，我们不知道该怎么处理，但我们要买一些能赚钱的东西。还有新的 NFT、不可替代的代币、数字艺术--除了它并不是一种真正的实物资产之外，我甚至不知道我是否还能充分描述它是什么。这是你拥有的数字图像，但其他人都有权看到、使用和拥有一切。我告诉你，这太极端了，几乎是荒谬的。但这并不罕见。从我们在 20 世纪 90 年代末看到的情况来看，当时公司可以上市，却从未赚到一分钱，如今我们开始在 [深受]年轻交易者欢迎的 meme 股票中看到很多这种情况。</blockquote></p><p> You learn a couple of things as you go through these speculative excesses. Number one, bubbles can never be definitively guaranteed or identified until afterward. The second thing is that the bubble is invisible to those inside the bubble. In other words, don’t go to someone investing in NFTs and try to tell them that they’re speculating in a bubble that could be almost worthless by the time it washes out, because you’re going to get in an argument that you can’t win except in the aftermath.</p><p><blockquote>当你经历这些投机过度时，你会学到一些东西。第一，在事后之前，泡沫永远无法得到明确的保证或识别。第二件事是，泡沫对泡沫内部的人来说是看不见的。换句话说，不要去找投资 NFT 的人，试图告诉他们，他们是在一个泡沫中进行投机，而泡沫在泡沫破灭时可能几乎一文不值，因为你会陷入一场只有在事后才能赢的争论。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Gold:</b>You’re talking about a possibility of both inflation and some big selloff in highly overvalued asset classes. That’s a tough market environment, so where do you think people should put their money and not put their money now?</p><p><blockquote><b>黄金：</b>你说的是通货膨胀和高估值资产类别大幅抛售的可能性。这是一个艰难的市场环境，所以你认为人们应该把钱放在哪里，而不是现在？</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <b>Stack:</b>We are in one of the most overvalued markets in history and one of the most speculative excess periods in history, so you don’t have to be fully invested today. For our portfolio, we are short-term constructive on the market because we’re giving it the benefit of doubt, but we’re still carrying a 20% cash reserve just because it allows us to sleep at night. If you’re going to invest in today’s market, don’t go out buying the SPACs or the stocks that have infinite PE ratios, because they have yet to make earnings. I would put higher allocations into those sectors that are going to benefit from, or at least be resilient to, increasing inflation. If inflation is sticky, if it stays higher, if we do see interest rates start to rise in terms of normalizing, then you want to be in sectors like the energy sector.</p><p><blockquote><b>堆栈：</b>我们正处于历史上估值最高的市场之一，也是历史上投机性最强的过度时期之一，因此您今天不必全额投资。就我们的投资组合而言，我们在短期内对市场持建设性态度，因为我们对市场持怀疑态度，但我们仍然持有 20% 的现金储备，只是因为它能让我们晚上睡个好觉。如果你打算投资今天的市场，不要出去购买 SPAC 或市盈率无限的股票，因为它们还没有盈利。我会向那些将从通胀上升中受益或至少对通胀上升具有弹性的行业增加拨款。如果通胀具有粘性，如果通胀保持在较高水平，如果我们确实看到利率在正常化方面开始上升，那么你希望进入能源行业等行业。</blockquote></p><p> Now for purposes of disclosure, we do own these stocks in our clients’ accounts at Stack Financial Management. ConocoPhillips&nbsp;is one of the world’s largest independent exploration and production companies, and oil prices&nbsp;are over $70 a barrel. I wouldn’t be surprised to see them continue to move higher through the year. The materials sector can benefit from rising commodity prices, and I think a company like Eastman Chemical&nbsp;will do very well, and it pays a 2.4% dividend yield.</p><p><blockquote>现在，为了披露起见，我们确实在客户在 Stack Financial Management 的账户中拥有这些股票。康菲石油公司是世界上最大的独立勘探和生产公司之一，油价超过每桶 70 美元。如果他们在这一年中继续走高，我不会感到惊讶。材料行业可以受益于大宗商品价格上涨，我认为像伊士曼化学这样的公司会做得很好，而且它支付2.4%的股息收益率。</blockquote></p><p> In the health-care sector, one of the stocks we’re holding is United&nbsp;Health Group&nbsp;and carries a trailing P/E of only 23 times still pays a couple percent dividends, which is higher than the 10-year Treasury bond yield&nbsp;.</p><p><blockquote>在医疗保健领域，我们持有的股票之一是联合健康集团（United Health Group），其历史市盈率仅为 23 倍，但仍支付百分之几的股息，高于 10 年期国债收益率。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Gold:</b>Obviously there are plenty of ETFs in these sectors — you said materials, energy — any others that you like or that you would avoid?</p><p><blockquote><b>黄金：</b>显然，这些行业中有很多 ETF——你说的是材料、能源——还有你喜欢或会避免的其他行业吗？</blockquote></p><p> <b>Stack:</b>If you’re going to invest in ETFs, you can look at energy, materials or health care or, on the defensive side, consumer staples. They’re out of favor right now, but they’re carrying some of the better valuations in this market. Value is what you want to be going for because we’ve seen a great divergence between growth and value, and growth has led the way out of the pandemic, but it’s also carrying some of the highest extreme valuations in the market. And when the Fed does decide to start taking the punchbowl away, that’s where the pains can be felt the greatest. So, again, think safety first, and walk softly and carry a comfortable cash reserve.</p><p><blockquote><b>堆栈：</b>如果您打算投资 ETF，可以关注能源、材料或医疗保健，或者从防御性角度来看，可以关注必需消费品。它们现在不受欢迎，但在这个市场上，它们的估值较高。价值是你想要追求的，因为我们已经看到增长和价值之间的巨大背离，增长引领了大流行病的走出，但它也承载着市场上最高的极端估值。当美联储决定开始拿走潘趣酒碗时，那才是最大的痛苦。所以，还是那句话，安全第一，轻轻地走路，携带舒适的现金储备。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/you-dont-have-to-be-fully-invested-in-the-stock-market-today-amid-excess-and-speculation-says-veteran-investor-jim-stack-11625761953?siteid=yhoof2\">Marketwatch</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"COP":"康菲石油","EMN":"伊士曼化工","UNH":"联合健康"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/you-dont-have-to-be-fully-invested-in-the-stock-market-today-amid-excess-and-speculation-says-veteran-investor-jim-stack-11625761953?siteid=yhoof2","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/599a65733b8245fcf7868668ef9ad712","article_id":"1143190074","content_text":"Since he called the 1987 stock market crash as a young analyst, Jim Stack has been one of the leading market contrarians.\nBased in Whitefish, Montana, he pursues a “safety-first” approach in his Investech Research newsletter and in his money-management firm, Stack Financial Management, which manage $1.5 billion in assets. Stack has also been featured in Barron’s list of top investment advisers.\nWhen I interviewed him late last week, he was worried Wall Street wasn’t paying enough attention to the many speculative excesses in the markets and the Federal Reserve was too complacent on inflation.\nHoward Gold:In your latest issue of Investech Research, you said the Federal Reserve reversed its hawkish stance and started unwinding its interest rate hikes out of fear back in December 2018. Could you tell us how that may have set the stage for some of the things that have happened since?\nJim Stack:As we’re going into 2019, this economic recovery was already one of the longest economic recoveries in U.S. history. But the Fed had started raising interest rates, and the stock market took notice, and we had the worst December since the Great Depression. So the Fed immediately reversed and said, oh, well, we really didn’t mean it and it wasn’t long after that, that they started bringing interest rates back down again. And so, they brought the punchbowl back to the party and, particularly when the pandemic hit, they decided to add more and more alcohol to it, to where right now, I think there’s a lot of participants on Wall Street investing like they’re a little bit inebriated, even as the PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditures price index), the Fed’s favorite inflation tool, goes way above their 2% target.\nGold:Where do you see inflation now, and how has the Fed policy affected that?\nStack:We’re reemerging from a pandemic where everything was shut down and all of a sudden there’s a very strong demand and a very poor supply chain. And those kinds of pressures the Fed has been arguing can be transitory. The problem is that a lot of the inflation pressures we’re seeing today are not transitory. [The Fed could not get the PCE] above 2%, except for several months, all the way from 2009 until this year, but all of a sudden, it’s gone right through the 2% threshold, up to 3.1%. I think it just recently hit 3.5%, and I think it’s also a lot stickier. The Atlanta Fed has come out with what they call a Sticky Price Consumer Price Index, and it includes goods and services that don’t change in price very often. But when they do change, they continue to increase. These would be things like medical care, car insurance or alcoholic beverages. And this Sticky Price CPI has moved up to the highest level in 30 years. The Fed is going to get higher inflation. And I think the prices over the coming months are going to be on the upside. And that’s where we could see trouble in a stock market that has become one of the most interest-rate-sensitive markets in history.\nGold:The bond market is not showing much fear of inflation. We’ve seen the 10-year Treasury note for the last few weeks yielding between 1.45% and maybe a little over 1.5% and it peaked at around 1.76%. (It yielded 1.30% on Thursday.) So are bond investors wrong about this? Is it wishful thinking that they really can’t see inflation coming?\nStack:I don’t think I’d call it wishful thinking; I’d call it perhaps misplaced trust in the Fed, [which] has been trying to talk down inflation, trying to convince everyone that this is going to be transitory. And in the Fed meeting a couple of weeks ago, it was widely thought, they’re going to acknowledge that we are seeing some upside surprises on inflation, and they’re going to start at least putting a cap on the punchbowl and maybe stop the bond purchases. Instead, the Fed reiterated, we’re going to keep adding to that punchbowl out of conviction that this inflation was transitory.\nAnd I think from our experience back in the 1970s, you have to live through those big inflationary cycles to find out how wrong or how far behind the curve the Fed can be. That’s my concern today: The Fed is being very convincing and I think that’s what brought the bond yields down since that Fed meeting several weeks ago. I wouldn’t be surprised if inflation is sticky, if we see upside surprises and if we see particularly strong employment reports, I wouldn’t be surprised to see 10-year bond yields go back up and start pushing toward that 2% threshold.\nGold:How do you separate transitory price increases from sticky ones?\nStack:Housing costs and prices make up almost 40% of the CPI, and about half of that comes from owners’ equivalent rent [the amount of rent that would have to be paid if an owner’s house were a rental property], which typically will track the price of housing. And we have seen one of the greatest increases in housing prices nationally over the past 12 months, at least going back to the high inflation period of the ’70s. Rent follows those prices and that means that if anything, those numbers going into the owner’s equivalent rent and subsequently going into the CPI are going to surprise to the upside.\nIn 2005, we invented our Housing Bellwether Barometer, that told us we’re in a housing bubble because housing prices were 35% above the long-term inflationary trend. And sure enough, we were, and housing prices came down to, and actually a little under, that long-term inflation or CPI index. Well, today we’re over 43% above it. In other words, we have more of an upside disparity between housing prices and long-term inflation than we did in the housing bubble in 2005.\nGold:I interviewed the chief economist of Redfin who pointed out that thesupply of homes is very, very lowbecause older people are staying in their homes while you have pent-up demand from millennials who are now reaching home-buying age at the same time people are migrating out of cities following the pandemic. Are there special circumstances here?\nStack:You’re obviously seeing an influx of demand. We live in the Flathead Valley in Northwest Montana, and our housing prices have gone ballistic. And it seems that everyone’s quitting their job to become a realtor.\nGold:That’s an indicator for you!\nStack:It brings back all the memories of 2005-2006.\nGold:Are there bidding wars and all-cash offers in your neck of the woods, too?\nStack:Very much so. You’re seeing multiple offers above the asking price and that’s happening in many high-demand areas of the country where people will want to move or own a second home.\nWhen you end up with a speculative psychology, it tends to spill over into multiple asset classes, not just stock market valuations, where they are above the 90th or 95th percentile by most historical measures. Stocks are very, very expensive, historically speaking, but we’re seeing it in real estate, of course, we’ve seen it in cryptocurrencies, like bitcoinBTCUSD,0.26%shot up to $60,000 and now is struggling to stay above $30,000\nWe’ve developed several tools over the years to try to tackle or track that psychology. Recently, we invented our Canary in the Coal Mine index. It’s comprised of 20 of the most notable targets of speculation that have gone parabolic since the pandemic low. If you track the peaks in that speculation and see when that washes out, you’re going to have a handle on when the trouble is going to start permeating into the rest of the market.\nGold:Where do you see the most speculative excess now?\nStack:Today, I think [speculative excess] is spilling over into all of the new IPOs, the SPACs (special purpose acquisition companies). We’re raising money and we don’t know what we’re going to do with it, but we’re going to buy something that makes money. And then we’ve got the new NFTs, non-fungible tokens, digital art — I don’t know if I can even describe adequately what it is other than the fact that it’s not really a physical asset. It is a digital image that you own, but everyone else has a right to see, use and everything. I’ll tell you, it’s so extreme, it’s almost nonsensical. But it’s not unusual. From what we saw in the late 1990s, when companies could go public and had never made a penny, we’re starting to see a lot of that today in the meme stocks [so popular with the] new young traders.\nYou learn a couple of things as you go through these speculative excesses. Number one, bubbles can never be definitively guaranteed or identified until afterward. The second thing is that the bubble is invisible to those inside the bubble. In other words, don’t go to someone investing in NFTs and try to tell them that they’re speculating in a bubble that could be almost worthless by the time it washes out, because you’re going to get in an argument that you can’t win except in the aftermath.\nGold:You’re talking about a possibility of both inflation and some big selloff in highly overvalued asset classes. That’s a tough market environment, so where do you think people should put their money and not put their money now?\nStack:We are in one of the most overvalued markets in history and one of the most speculative excess periods in history, so you don’t have to be fully invested today. For our portfolio, we are short-term constructive on the market because we’re giving it the benefit of doubt, but we’re still carrying a 20% cash reserve just because it allows us to sleep at night. If you’re going to invest in today’s market, don’t go out buying the SPACs or the stocks that have infinite PE ratios, because they have yet to make earnings. I would put higher allocations into those sectors that are going to benefit from, or at least be resilient to, increasing inflation. If inflation is sticky, if it stays higher, if we do see interest rates start to rise in terms of normalizing, then you want to be in sectors like the energy sector.\nNow for purposes of disclosure, we do own these stocks in our clients’ accounts at Stack Financial Management. ConocoPhillips is one of the world’s largest independent exploration and production companies, and oil prices are over $70 a barrel. I wouldn’t be surprised to see them continue to move higher through the year. The materials sector can benefit from rising commodity prices, and I think a company like Eastman Chemical will do very well, and it pays a 2.4% dividend yield.\nIn the health-care sector, one of the stocks we’re holding is United Health Group and carries a trailing P/E of only 23 times still pays a couple percent dividends, which is higher than the 10-year Treasury bond yield .\nGold:Obviously there are plenty of ETFs in these sectors — you said materials, energy — any others that you like or that you would avoid?\nStack:If you’re going to invest in ETFs, you can look at energy, materials or health care or, on the defensive side, consumer staples. They’re out of favor right now, but they’re carrying some of the better valuations in this market. Value is what you want to be going for because we’ve seen a great divergence between growth and value, and growth has led the way out of the pandemic, but it’s also carrying some of the highest extreme valuations in the market. And when the Fed does decide to start taking the punchbowl away, that’s where the pains can be felt the greatest. So, again, think safety first, and walk softly and carry a comfortable cash reserve.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"EMN":0.9,"UNH":0.9,"COP":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":825,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":143799866,"gmtCreate":1625815397255,"gmtModify":1631893642313,"author":{"id":"3573867635894284","authorId":"3573867635894284","name":"Felixt","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cdb9d8a80a3cd0176dc5aaf42013604f","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573867635894284","idStr":"3573867635894284"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Wow","listText":"Wow","text":"Wow","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/143799866","repostId":"1119741032","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1119741032","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1625803532,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1119741032?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-09 12:05","market":"hk","language":"en","title":"5 Blue Chip Stocks to Buy With Huge Dividends as Interest Rates Plunge<blockquote>利率暴跌时值得购买的 5 只巨额股息蓝筹股</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1119741032","media":"24/7 wall street","summary":"Just last month, we were being warned that interest rates were ready to move meaningfully higher as ","content":"<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JE\">Just</a> last month, we were being warned that interest rates were ready to move meaningfully higher as inflation and the Federal Reserve were teaming up to end the massive low interest rate paradigm we have been stuck in for years. Then, seemingly out of nowhere, rates have dived lower, with the 10-year Treasury trading at a 1.32% yield, down from near 1.70% at the end of May. The benchmark 30-year Treasury bond is back at the 1.94% level. These are the lowest interest rate levels since last winter.</p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JE\">刚刚</a>上个月，我们收到警告，随着通胀和美联储联手结束我们多年来陷入的大规模低利率模式，利率准备大幅走高。然后，利率似乎不知从哪里冒出来的，跳水走低，10 年期国债收益率为 1.32%，低于 5 月底的近 1.70%。基准30年期国债收益率回到1.94%的水平。这是自去年冬天以来的最低利率水平。</blockquote></p><p> For income investors, this is another setback in what has become over a ten-year problem. While rates certainly could rise again, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE\">one</a> thing seems certain: the Federal Reserve will not raise rates until it is positive the economy is back at full strength. The only move the Fed looks poised to make in the near term is the beginning of the tapering of the $120 billion per month purchase of Treasury and mortgage debt.</p><p><blockquote>对于收益投资者来说，这是十多年来问题的又一次挫折。虽然利率肯定会再次上升，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE\">一</a>事情似乎是肯定的：在经济全面恢复之前，美联储不会加息。美联储近期内唯一准备采取的举措是开始逐步减少每月 1200 亿美元的国债和抵押贷款债务购买规模。</blockquote></p><p> We screened the BofA Securities research universe looking for blue chip stocks rated Buy that paid at least a 4% dividend. We found five that are very appealing now to growth and income investors. While all are rated Buy, it is important to remember that no single analyst report should be used as a sole basis for any buying or selling decision.</p><p><blockquote>我们筛选了美国银行证券研究领域，寻找支付至少 4% 股息的被评为买入的蓝筹股。我们发现五个现在对增长和收入投资者非常有吸引力。虽然所有报告都被评为买入，但重要的是要记住，任何一份分析师报告都不应被用作任何买卖决策的唯一依据。</blockquote></p><p> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MO\">Altria</a></p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MO\">奥驰亚</a></blockquote></p><p> This maker of tobacco products offers value investors a great entry point now and was hit recently as cigarette sales have slowed. Altria Group Inc. (NYSE: MO) is the parent company of <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PM\">Philip Morris</a> USA (cigarettes), UST (smokeless), John Middleton (cigars), Ste. Michelle Wine Estates and Philip Morris Capital. PMUSA enjoys a 51% share of the U.S. cigarette market, led by its top cigarette brand Marlboro.</p><p><blockquote>这家烟草产品制造商现在为价值投资者提供了一个很好的切入点，但最近由于卷烟销售放缓而受到打击。奥驰亚集团公司（纽约证券交易所代码：MO）是<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PM\">菲利普·莫里斯</a>美国（香烟），UST（无烟），约翰米德尔顿（雪茄），Ste。米歇尔葡萄酒庄园和菲利普莫里斯资本。PMUSA在美国卷烟市场占有51%的份额，由其顶级卷烟品牌万宝路领导。</blockquote></p><p> Altria also owns over 10% of Anheuser-Busch InBev, the world’s largest brewer. In March 2008, it spun off its international cigarette business to shareholders. In December 2018, the company acquired 35% of Juul Labs, and it has purchased a 45% stake in cannabis company Cronus for $1.8 billion.</p><p><blockquote>奥驰亚还拥有全球最大的酿酒商百威英博 10% 以上的股份。2008年3月，该公司将其国际卷烟业务分拆给股东。2018年12月，该公司收购了Juul Labs 35%的股份，并以18亿美元收购了大麻公司Cronus 45%的股份。</blockquote></p><p> BofA Securities is very favorable toward the company’s plans for the future:</p><p><blockquote>美国银行证券非常看好公司的未来计划：</blockquote></p><p>   Management presented at CAGNY (Consumer Analyst Group of <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NWY\">New York</a>) where it discussed a new corporate focus on ESG, additional details on its IQOS plans and its “Moving beyond smoking” 10-yr plan. Smokeables (cigarettes/cigars) will remain an important part of its strategy, providing funding behind its long-term growth and shareholder returns. Over the last 5-yrs, smokeable and other comprehensive income grew at a 5.5% compounded annual growth rate despite volume declines.  Shareholders receive a 7.35% dividend. The analyst has a $58 target price on the shares, while the consensus target is lower at $53.89. Altria stock closed on Wednesday at $46.79 per share.</p><p><blockquote>管理层出席 CAGNY（消费者分析师集团）<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NWY\">纽约</a>）讨论了企业对 ESG 的新关注、IQOS 计划的更多细节以及 “超越吸烟 ”10 年计划。可吸烟产品（香烟/雪茄）仍将是其战略的重要组成部分，为其长期增长和股东回报提供资金。过去 5 年，尽管销量下降，但可吸烟和其他综合收入仍以 5.5% 的复合年增长率增长。股东获得7.35%的股息。该分析师对该股的目标价为 58 美元，而普遍目标价较低，为 53.89 美元。奥驰亚股价周三收于每股 46.79 美元。</blockquote></p><p> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CVX\">Chevron</a></p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CVX\">人字形</a></blockquote></p><p> This energy giant is a solid way for investors who are more conservative to be positioned in the sector. Chevron Corp. (NYSE: CVX) is a U.S.-based integrated oil and gas company, with worldwide operations in exploration and production, refining and marketing, transportation and petrochemicals. The company sports a sizable dividend and has a solid place in the sector when it comes to natural gas and liquefied natural gas.</p><p><blockquote>对于较为保守的投资者来说，这家能源巨头是进入该行业的可靠途径。雪佛龙公司（纽约证券交易所股票代码：CVX）是一家总部位于美国的综合石油和天然气公司，业务遍及全球，涵盖勘探和生产、炼油和营销、运输和石化等领域。该公司拥有可观的股息，并且在天然气和液化天然气领域拥有稳固的地位。</blockquote></p><p> With the strongest financial base of the majors, coupled with an attractive relative asset base, many on Wall Street feel that Chevron offers the most straightforwardly positive risk/reward. Although current conditions do not warrant a large focus on production growth, Chevron possesses numerous medium-term drivers (<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NBL\">Noble</a> integration, Permian, TCO/WPMP expansion, Gulf of Mexico exploration, Vaca Muerta, and so on) that should support production levels in the coming years.</p><p><blockquote>凭借巨头中最强大的财务基础，加上有吸引力的相对资产基础，许多华尔街人士认为雪佛龙提供了最直接的正风险/回报。尽管目前的情况并不值得高度重视产量增长，但雪佛龙拥有众多中期驱动因素（<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NBL\">高尚的</a>整合、二叠纪、总拥有成本/WPMP 扩张、墨西哥湾勘探、Vaca Muerta 等）应该会支持未来几年的生产水平。</blockquote></p><p> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IBM\">IBM</a></p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IBM\">IBM</a></blockquote></p><p> This old-school tech giant still offers investors a very solid entry point. International Business Machines Corp. (NYSE: IBM) is a leading provider of enterprise solutions, offering a broad portfolio of information technology (IT) hardware, business and IT services, and a full suite of software solutions.</p><p><blockquote>这家老派科技巨头仍然为投资者提供了一个非常坚实的切入点。国际商业机器公司（纽约证券交易所代码：IBM）是一家领先的企业解决方案提供商，提供广泛的信息技术（IT）硬件、业务和IT服务以及全套软件解决方案。</blockquote></p><p> The company integrates its hardware products with its software and services offerings in order to provide high-value solutions. Analysts have cited the company’s potential in the public cloud as a reason for their positive outlook going forward.</p><p><blockquote>该公司将其硬件产品与其软件和服务产品相结合，以提供高价值的解决方案。分析师们认为，该公司在公共云领域的潜力是他们看好未来前景的原因。</blockquote></p><p> CEO Ginni Rommety, who had been in the position since 2012, stepped down in January, and the stock market greeted the news in a very positive manner. Arvind Krishna, who has led the company’s cloud computing business, became the new chief executive. Rometty will remain as executive board chair until the end of the year.</p><p><blockquote>自 2012 年以来一直担任该职位的首席执行官 Ginni Rommety 于 1 月份辞职，股市对这一消息反应非常积极。曾领导公司云计算业务的阿尔温德-克里希纳（Arvind Krishna）成为新任首席执行官。罗梅蒂将继续担任执行董事会主席，直到今年年底。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Holders of IBM stock receive a 4.69% dividend. The $175 BofA Securities price target is well above the $144.14 consensus figure. The shares closed at $139.82 on Wednesday.</p><p><blockquote>IBM 股票持有人可获得 4.69% 的股息。美国银行证券目标价 175 美元远高于 144.14 美元的共识数字。该股周三收于 139.82 美元。</blockquote></p><p> Shareholders receive a 5.21% dividend, which analysts feel comfortable will remain at current levels. The BofA Securities price target is $125, which compares to a $122.48 consensus target and the last Chevron stock trade on Wednesday at $102.93 a share.</p><p><blockquote>股东将获得 5.21% 的股息，分析师认为该股息将保持在当前水平。美国银行证券目标价为 125 美元，而普遍目标价为 122.48 美元，雪佛龙股票周三最后一次交易价格为每股 102.93 美元。</blockquote></p><p> LyondellBasell</p><p><blockquote>利安德巴塞尔</blockquote></p><p> This top chemical company with a sterling balance sheet is another solid play for conservative investors. LyondellBasell Industries N.V. (NYSE: LYB) manufactures chemicals and polymers, refines crude oil, produces gasoline blending components and develops and licenses technologies for production of polymers.</p><p><blockquote>这家拥有英镑资产负债表的顶级化工公司是保守投资者的又一稳健投资。LyondellBasell Industries N.V.（纽约证券交易所股票代码：LYB）生产化学品和聚合物、精炼原油、生产汽油混合成分以及开发和许可聚合物生产技术。</blockquote></p><p> Over half of earnings are generated in the company’s Olefins and Polyolefins Americas segment, where costs are linked to the price of cheap natural gas in the <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UBNK\">United</a> States, while selling prices are correlated with the price of oil. The company has pursued a strategy of low-cost, high return on invested capital debottlenecks coupled with cash returns to shareholders.</p><p><blockquote>该公司一半以上的收入来自美洲烯烃和聚烯烃部门，该部门的成本与美洲廉价天然气的价格挂钩。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UBNK\">团结的</a>国家，而销售价格与石油价格相关。该公司奉行低成本、高回报的战略，解决投资资本瓶颈，并为股东提供现金回报。</blockquote></p><p> Note that debottlenecking is the process of identifying specific areas or equipment in oil and gas facilities that limit the flow of product (known as bottlenecks) and optimizing them so that overall capacity in the plant can be increased.</p><p><blockquote>请注意，消除瓶颈是识别石油和天然气设施中限制产品流动的特定区域或设备（称为瓶颈）并对其进行优化的过程，以便提高工厂的整体产能。</blockquote></p><p> The company offers a 4.50% dividend. BofA Securities has set a $117 price target. The consensus target is $118.41, and LyondellBasell stock ended Wednesday at $100.40 a share.</p><p><blockquote>该公司提供4.50%的股息。美国银行证券将目标价定为 117 美元。共识目标为 118.41 美元，利安德巴塞尔股价周三收于每股 100.40 美元。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1620372341666","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>5 Blue Chip Stocks to Buy With Huge Dividends as Interest Rates Plunge<blockquote>利率暴跌时值得购买的 5 只巨额股息蓝筹股</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n5 Blue Chip Stocks to Buy With Huge Dividends as Interest Rates Plunge<blockquote>利率暴跌时值得购买的 5 只巨额股息蓝筹股</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">24/7 wall street</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-09 12:05</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JE\">Just</a> last month, we were being warned that interest rates were ready to move meaningfully higher as inflation and the Federal Reserve were teaming up to end the massive low interest rate paradigm we have been stuck in for years. Then, seemingly out of nowhere, rates have dived lower, with the 10-year Treasury trading at a 1.32% yield, down from near 1.70% at the end of May. The benchmark 30-year Treasury bond is back at the 1.94% level. These are the lowest interest rate levels since last winter.</p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JE\">刚刚</a>上个月，我们收到警告，随着通胀和美联储联手结束我们多年来陷入的大规模低利率模式，利率准备大幅走高。然后，利率似乎不知从哪里冒出来的，跳水走低，10 年期国债收益率为 1.32%，低于 5 月底的近 1.70%。基准30年期国债收益率回到1.94%的水平。这是自去年冬天以来的最低利率水平。</blockquote></p><p> For income investors, this is another setback in what has become over a ten-year problem. While rates certainly could rise again, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE\">one</a> thing seems certain: the Federal Reserve will not raise rates until it is positive the economy is back at full strength. The only move the Fed looks poised to make in the near term is the beginning of the tapering of the $120 billion per month purchase of Treasury and mortgage debt.</p><p><blockquote>对于收益投资者来说，这是十多年来问题的又一次挫折。虽然利率肯定会再次上升，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE\">一</a>事情似乎是肯定的：在经济全面恢复之前，美联储不会加息。美联储近期内唯一准备采取的举措是开始逐步减少每月 1200 亿美元的国债和抵押贷款债务购买规模。</blockquote></p><p> We screened the BofA Securities research universe looking for blue chip stocks rated Buy that paid at least a 4% dividend. We found five that are very appealing now to growth and income investors. While all are rated Buy, it is important to remember that no single analyst report should be used as a sole basis for any buying or selling decision.</p><p><blockquote>我们筛选了美国银行证券研究领域，寻找支付至少 4% 股息的被评为买入的蓝筹股。我们发现五个现在对增长和收入投资者非常有吸引力。虽然所有报告都被评为买入，但重要的是要记住，任何一份分析师报告都不应被用作任何买卖决策的唯一依据。</blockquote></p><p> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MO\">Altria</a></p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MO\">奥驰亚</a></blockquote></p><p> This maker of tobacco products offers value investors a great entry point now and was hit recently as cigarette sales have slowed. Altria Group Inc. (NYSE: MO) is the parent company of <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PM\">Philip Morris</a> USA (cigarettes), UST (smokeless), John Middleton (cigars), Ste. Michelle Wine Estates and Philip Morris Capital. PMUSA enjoys a 51% share of the U.S. cigarette market, led by its top cigarette brand Marlboro.</p><p><blockquote>这家烟草产品制造商现在为价值投资者提供了一个很好的切入点，但最近由于卷烟销售放缓而受到打击。奥驰亚集团公司（纽约证券交易所代码：MO）是<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PM\">菲利普·莫里斯</a>美国（香烟），UST（无烟），约翰米德尔顿（雪茄），Ste。米歇尔葡萄酒庄园和菲利普莫里斯资本。PMUSA在美国卷烟市场占有51%的份额，由其顶级卷烟品牌万宝路领导。</blockquote></p><p> Altria also owns over 10% of Anheuser-Busch InBev, the world’s largest brewer. In March 2008, it spun off its international cigarette business to shareholders. In December 2018, the company acquired 35% of Juul Labs, and it has purchased a 45% stake in cannabis company Cronus for $1.8 billion.</p><p><blockquote>奥驰亚还拥有全球最大的酿酒商百威英博 10% 以上的股份。2008年3月，该公司将其国际卷烟业务分拆给股东。2018年12月，该公司收购了Juul Labs 35%的股份，并以18亿美元收购了大麻公司Cronus 45%的股份。</blockquote></p><p> BofA Securities is very favorable toward the company’s plans for the future:</p><p><blockquote>美国银行证券非常看好公司的未来计划：</blockquote></p><p>   Management presented at CAGNY (Consumer Analyst Group of <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NWY\">New York</a>) where it discussed a new corporate focus on ESG, additional details on its IQOS plans and its “Moving beyond smoking” 10-yr plan. Smokeables (cigarettes/cigars) will remain an important part of its strategy, providing funding behind its long-term growth and shareholder returns. Over the last 5-yrs, smokeable and other comprehensive income grew at a 5.5% compounded annual growth rate despite volume declines.  Shareholders receive a 7.35% dividend. The analyst has a $58 target price on the shares, while the consensus target is lower at $53.89. Altria stock closed on Wednesday at $46.79 per share.</p><p><blockquote>管理层出席 CAGNY（消费者分析师集团）<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NWY\">纽约</a>）讨论了企业对 ESG 的新关注、IQOS 计划的更多细节以及 “超越吸烟 ”10 年计划。可吸烟产品（香烟/雪茄）仍将是其战略的重要组成部分，为其长期增长和股东回报提供资金。过去 5 年，尽管销量下降，但可吸烟和其他综合收入仍以 5.5% 的复合年增长率增长。股东获得7.35%的股息。该分析师对该股的目标价为 58 美元，而普遍目标价较低，为 53.89 美元。奥驰亚股价周三收于每股 46.79 美元。</blockquote></p><p> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CVX\">Chevron</a></p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CVX\">人字形</a></blockquote></p><p> This energy giant is a solid way for investors who are more conservative to be positioned in the sector. Chevron Corp. (NYSE: CVX) is a U.S.-based integrated oil and gas company, with worldwide operations in exploration and production, refining and marketing, transportation and petrochemicals. The company sports a sizable dividend and has a solid place in the sector when it comes to natural gas and liquefied natural gas.</p><p><blockquote>对于较为保守的投资者来说，这家能源巨头是进入该行业的可靠途径。雪佛龙公司（纽约证券交易所股票代码：CVX）是一家总部位于美国的综合石油和天然气公司，业务遍及全球，涵盖勘探和生产、炼油和营销、运输和石化等领域。该公司拥有可观的股息，并且在天然气和液化天然气领域拥有稳固的地位。</blockquote></p><p> With the strongest financial base of the majors, coupled with an attractive relative asset base, many on Wall Street feel that Chevron offers the most straightforwardly positive risk/reward. Although current conditions do not warrant a large focus on production growth, Chevron possesses numerous medium-term drivers (<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NBL\">Noble</a> integration, Permian, TCO/WPMP expansion, Gulf of Mexico exploration, Vaca Muerta, and so on) that should support production levels in the coming years.</p><p><blockquote>凭借巨头中最强大的财务基础，加上有吸引力的相对资产基础，许多华尔街人士认为雪佛龙提供了最直接的正风险/回报。尽管目前的情况并不值得高度重视产量增长，但雪佛龙拥有众多中期驱动因素（<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NBL\">高尚的</a>整合、二叠纪、总拥有成本/WPMP 扩张、墨西哥湾勘探、Vaca Muerta 等）应该会支持未来几年的生产水平。</blockquote></p><p> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IBM\">IBM</a></p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IBM\">IBM</a></blockquote></p><p> This old-school tech giant still offers investors a very solid entry point. International Business Machines Corp. (NYSE: IBM) is a leading provider of enterprise solutions, offering a broad portfolio of information technology (IT) hardware, business and IT services, and a full suite of software solutions.</p><p><blockquote>这家老派科技巨头仍然为投资者提供了一个非常坚实的切入点。国际商业机器公司（纽约证券交易所代码：IBM）是一家领先的企业解决方案提供商，提供广泛的信息技术（IT）硬件、业务和IT服务以及全套软件解决方案。</blockquote></p><p> The company integrates its hardware products with its software and services offerings in order to provide high-value solutions. Analysts have cited the company’s potential in the public cloud as a reason for their positive outlook going forward.</p><p><blockquote>该公司将其硬件产品与其软件和服务产品相结合，以提供高价值的解决方案。分析师们认为，该公司在公共云领域的潜力是他们看好未来前景的原因。</blockquote></p><p> CEO Ginni Rommety, who had been in the position since 2012, stepped down in January, and the stock market greeted the news in a very positive manner. Arvind Krishna, who has led the company’s cloud computing business, became the new chief executive. Rometty will remain as executive board chair until the end of the year.</p><p><blockquote>自 2012 年以来一直担任该职位的首席执行官 Ginni Rommety 于 1 月份辞职，股市对这一消息反应非常积极。曾领导公司云计算业务的阿尔温德-克里希纳（Arvind Krishna）成为新任首席执行官。罗梅蒂将继续担任执行董事会主席，直到今年年底。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Holders of IBM stock receive a 4.69% dividend. The $175 BofA Securities price target is well above the $144.14 consensus figure. The shares closed at $139.82 on Wednesday.</p><p><blockquote>IBM 股票持有人可获得 4.69% 的股息。美国银行证券目标价 175 美元远高于 144.14 美元的共识数字。该股周三收于 139.82 美元。</blockquote></p><p> Shareholders receive a 5.21% dividend, which analysts feel comfortable will remain at current levels. The BofA Securities price target is $125, which compares to a $122.48 consensus target and the last Chevron stock trade on Wednesday at $102.93 a share.</p><p><blockquote>股东将获得 5.21% 的股息，分析师认为该股息将保持在当前水平。美国银行证券目标价为 125 美元，而普遍目标价为 122.48 美元，雪佛龙股票周三最后一次交易价格为每股 102.93 美元。</blockquote></p><p> LyondellBasell</p><p><blockquote>利安德巴塞尔</blockquote></p><p> This top chemical company with a sterling balance sheet is another solid play for conservative investors. LyondellBasell Industries N.V. (NYSE: LYB) manufactures chemicals and polymers, refines crude oil, produces gasoline blending components and develops and licenses technologies for production of polymers.</p><p><blockquote>这家拥有英镑资产负债表的顶级化工公司是保守投资者的又一稳健投资。LyondellBasell Industries N.V.（纽约证券交易所股票代码：LYB）生产化学品和聚合物、精炼原油、生产汽油混合成分以及开发和许可聚合物生产技术。</blockquote></p><p> Over half of earnings are generated in the company’s Olefins and Polyolefins Americas segment, where costs are linked to the price of cheap natural gas in the <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UBNK\">United</a> States, while selling prices are correlated with the price of oil. The company has pursued a strategy of low-cost, high return on invested capital debottlenecks coupled with cash returns to shareholders.</p><p><blockquote>该公司一半以上的收入来自美洲烯烃和聚烯烃部门，该部门的成本与美洲廉价天然气的价格挂钩。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UBNK\">团结的</a>国家，而销售价格与石油价格相关。该公司奉行低成本、高回报的战略，解决投资资本瓶颈，并为股东提供现金回报。</blockquote></p><p> Note that debottlenecking is the process of identifying specific areas or equipment in oil and gas facilities that limit the flow of product (known as bottlenecks) and optimizing them so that overall capacity in the plant can be increased.</p><p><blockquote>请注意，消除瓶颈是识别石油和天然气设施中限制产品流动的特定区域或设备（称为瓶颈）并对其进行优化的过程，以便提高工厂的整体产能。</blockquote></p><p> The company offers a 4.50% dividend. BofA Securities has set a $117 price target. The consensus target is $118.41, and LyondellBasell stock ended Wednesday at $100.40 a share.</p><p><blockquote>该公司提供4.50%的股息。美国银行证券将目标价定为 117 美元。共识目标为 118.41 美元，利安德巴塞尔股价周三收于每股 100.40 美元。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://247wallst.com/investing/2021/07/08/5-blue-chip-stocks-to-buy-with-huge-dividends-as-interest-rates-plunge/\">24/7 wall street</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://247wallst.com/investing/2021/07/08/5-blue-chip-stocks-to-buy-with-huge-dividends-as-interest-rates-plunge/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1119741032","content_text":"Just last month, we were being warned that interest rates were ready to move meaningfully higher as inflation and the Federal Reserve were teaming up to end the massive low interest rate paradigm we have been stuck in for years. Then, seemingly out of nowhere, rates have dived lower, with the 10-year Treasury trading at a 1.32% yield, down from near 1.70% at the end of May. The benchmark 30-year Treasury bond is back at the 1.94% level. These are the lowest interest rate levels since last winter.\nFor income investors, this is another setback in what has become over a ten-year problem. While rates certainly could rise again, one thing seems certain: the Federal Reserve will not raise rates until it is positive the economy is back at full strength. The only move the Fed looks poised to make in the near term is the beginning of the tapering of the $120 billion per month purchase of Treasury and mortgage debt.\nWe screened the BofA Securities research universe looking for blue chip stocks rated Buy that paid at least a 4% dividend. We found five that are very appealing now to growth and income investors. While all are rated Buy, it is important to remember that no single analyst report should be used as a sole basis for any buying or selling decision.\nAltria\nThis maker of tobacco products offers value investors a great entry point now and was hit recently as cigarette sales have slowed. Altria Group Inc. (NYSE: MO) is the parent company of Philip Morris USA (cigarettes), UST (smokeless), John Middleton (cigars), Ste. Michelle Wine Estates and Philip Morris Capital. PMUSA enjoys a 51% share of the U.S. cigarette market, led by its top cigarette brand Marlboro.\nAltria also owns over 10% of Anheuser-Busch InBev, the world’s largest brewer. In March 2008, it spun off its international cigarette business to shareholders. In December 2018, the company acquired 35% of Juul Labs, and it has purchased a 45% stake in cannabis company Cronus for $1.8 billion.\nBofA Securities is very favorable toward the company’s plans for the future:\n\n Management presented at CAGNY (Consumer Analyst Group of New York) where it discussed a new corporate focus on ESG, additional details on its IQOS plans and its “Moving beyond smoking” 10-yr plan. Smokeables (cigarettes/cigars) will remain an important part of its strategy, providing funding behind its long-term growth and shareholder returns. Over the last 5-yrs, smokeable and other comprehensive income grew at a 5.5% compounded annual growth rate despite volume declines.\n\nShareholders receive a 7.35% dividend. The analyst has a $58 target price on the shares, while the consensus target is lower at $53.89. Altria stock closed on Wednesday at $46.79 per share.\nChevron\nThis energy giant is a solid way for investors who are more conservative to be positioned in the sector. Chevron Corp. (NYSE: CVX) is a U.S.-based integrated oil and gas company, with worldwide operations in exploration and production, refining and marketing, transportation and petrochemicals. The company sports a sizable dividend and has a solid place in the sector when it comes to natural gas and liquefied natural gas.\nWith the strongest financial base of the majors, coupled with an attractive relative asset base, many on Wall Street feel that Chevron offers the most straightforwardly positive risk/reward. Although current conditions do not warrant a large focus on production growth, Chevron possesses numerous medium-term drivers (Noble integration, Permian, TCO/WPMP expansion, Gulf of Mexico exploration, Vaca Muerta, and so on) that should support production levels in the coming years.\nIBM\nThis old-school tech giant still offers investors a very solid entry point. International Business Machines Corp. (NYSE: IBM) is a leading provider of enterprise solutions, offering a broad portfolio of information technology (IT) hardware, business and IT services, and a full suite of software solutions.\nThe company integrates its hardware products with its software and services offerings in order to provide high-value solutions. Analysts have cited the company’s potential in the public cloud as a reason for their positive outlook going forward.\nCEO Ginni Rommety, who had been in the position since 2012, stepped down in January, and the stock market greeted the news in a very positive manner. Arvind Krishna, who has led the company’s cloud computing business, became the new chief executive. Rometty will remain as executive board chair until the end of the year.\nHolders of IBM stock receive a 4.69% dividend. The $175 BofA Securities price target is well above the $144.14 consensus figure. The shares closed at $139.82 on Wednesday.\nShareholders receive a 5.21% dividend, which analysts feel comfortable will remain at current levels. The BofA Securities price target is $125, which compares to a $122.48 consensus target and the last Chevron stock trade on Wednesday at $102.93 a share.\nLyondellBasell\nThis top chemical company with a sterling balance sheet is another solid play for conservative investors. LyondellBasell Industries N.V. (NYSE: LYB) manufactures chemicals and polymers, refines crude oil, produces gasoline blending components and develops and licenses technologies for production of polymers.\nOver half of earnings are generated in the company’s Olefins and Polyolefins Americas segment, where costs are linked to the price of cheap natural gas in the United States, while selling prices are correlated with the price of oil. The company has pursued a strategy of low-cost, high return on invested capital debottlenecks coupled with cash returns to shareholders.\nNote that debottlenecking is the process of identifying specific areas or equipment in oil and gas facilities that limit the flow of product (known as bottlenecks) and optimizing them so that overall capacity in the plant can be increased.\nThe company offers a 4.50% dividend. BofA Securities has set a $117 price target. The consensus target is $118.41, and LyondellBasell stock ended Wednesday at $100.40 a 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like","listText":"Nice like","text":"Nice like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/899122118","repostId":"1102705333","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1102705333","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1628170059,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1102705333?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-05 21:27","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Stocks open slightly higher after fall in jobless claims<blockquote>申请失业救济人数下降后股市小幅高开</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1102705333","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"(Aug 5) Stocks open slightly higher after fall in jobless claims.\nDow industrials up 94 points, or 0","content":"<p>(Aug 5)&nbsp;Stocks open slightly higher after fall in jobless claims.</p><p><blockquote>（8月5日）申请失业救济人数下降后，股市小幅开盘走高。</blockquote></p><p> Dow industrials up 94 points, or 0.3%.&nbsp;S&amp;P 500 up 0.3% at 4,414.12.&nbsp;Nasdaq Composite up less than 0.1% at 14,784.61.&nbsp;</p><p><blockquote>道琼斯工业平均指数上涨94点，或0.3%。标普500指数上涨0.3%，至4414.12点。纳斯达克综合指数上涨不到0.1%，至14784.61点。</blockquote></p><p> Fastly plunges over&nbsp;23% in morning trading&nbsp;after the company's downside Q3 and full-year guidance due to the widespread outage in June.</p><p><blockquote>由于 6 月份大范围停电，该公司第三季度和全年指引下调，早盘交易中Fastly暴跌超过 23%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/44fbcf9492918a352919cdff1fd27498\" tg-width=\"727\" tg-height=\"497\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> The moves in the stocks came after a mostly lower regular session on Wednesday. The Dow dropped more than 300 points, or 0.9%, and closed near its session low. The S&amp;P 500 slipped about 0.5%, while the Nasdaq Composite ticked up 0.1%.</p><p><blockquote>股市的波动是在周三常规交易大多走低之后发生的。道琼斯指数下跌超过300点，跌幅0.9%，收于盘中低点附近。标普500指数下跌约0.5%，而纳斯达克综合指数上涨0.1%。</blockquote></p><p> Weekly initial jobless claims came in at385,000 on Thursday,in-line with expectations. Recent earnings and economic data have been strong overall, but some economists worry economic growth and employment gains will taper from here.</p><p><blockquote>周四每周初请失业金人数为38.5万人，符合预期。最近的盈利和经济数据总体强劲，但一些经济学家担心经济增长和就业增长将从此逐渐减少。</blockquote></p><p> The jobless claims data was the last reading before the key July jobs report, which will be released on Friday morning. There is a wide range of estimates from economists and what the report will show, and some metrics for employment gains have disappointed despite a high level of reported job openings.</p><p><blockquote>申请失业救济人数数据是关键的 7 月份就业报告之前的最后读数，该报告将于周五上午发布。经济学家的估计和报告将显示的内容各不相同，尽管报告的职位空缺水平很高，但一些就业增长指标令人失望。</blockquote></p><p> \"Many factors are likely driving worker shortages; concerns about catching the virus, childcare responsibilities, skills mismatches, and generous unemployment insurance benefits,\" PNC Senior Economist Abbey Omodunbi said in an email. In the second half of the year, \"more competition for workers, particularly in the leisure and hospitality sector, will support acceleration in wage growth, boosting household incomes and consumer spending.\"</p><p><blockquote>PNC 高级经济学家阿比·奥莫敦比 (Abbey Omodonbi) 在一封电子邮件中表示：“许多因素可能导致工人短缺；对感染病毒的担忧、育儿责任、技能不匹配以及慷慨的失业保险福利。”下半年，“对工人的更多竞争，特别是在休闲和酒店业，将支持工资增长加速，增加家庭收入和消费者支出。”</blockquote></p><p> The results of an ADP private payroll survey released Wednesday showed again of 330,000 jobs for July,well short of the consensus estimate of 653,000. The Labor Department's official jobs report, which typically has more impact on investors, will be released on Friday. Economists expect the report will show the U.S. added 845,000 in non-farm payrolls in July, about even with the previous month, according to Dow Jones estimates.</p><p><blockquote>周三公布的ADP私人就业调查结果显示，7月份就业岗位再次达到33万个，远低于市场普遍预期的65.3万个。通常对投资者影响更大的劳工部官方就业报告将于周五发布。根据道琼斯的估计，经济学家预计该报告将显示美国 7 月份非农就业人数增加 845,000 人，与上月持平。</blockquote></p><p> The10-year Treasury yieldwas holding steady near 1.8% on Thursday. The yield briefly dipping below 1.13% on Wednesday before bouncing back in late morning trading.</p><p><blockquote>周四，10年期国债收益率稳定在1.8%附近。周三收益率短暂跌破 1.13%，随后在上午晚些时候交易中反弹。</blockquote></p><p> Shares ofRokudropped 6% after the company issued quarterly results.Etsyfell 12% in early trading after the company gave guidance for the current quarter that indicated the pandemic-fueled commerce boommay be coming to an end.</p><p><blockquote>Froku 发布季度业绩后，该公司股价下跌 6%。 Etsy 在早盘交易中下跌 12%，此前该公司给出了本季度的指引，表明大流行推动的商业繁荣可能即将结束。</blockquote></p><p> However, earnings season has been strong overall. Goldman Sachs raised its year-end target for the S&amp;P 500 to 4,700, representing 7% upside, in part due to an improving earnings outlook going.</p><p><blockquote>然而，财报季总体上表现强劲。高盛将标普500的年终目标上调至 4,700 股，上涨 7%，部分原因是盈利前景持续改善。</blockquote></p><p> During regular trading Wednesday, shares of Robinhoodsurged 50%, continuing a volatile jump after last week's soft initial public offering. Semiconductor stocks were another bright spot, withNvidiaandAdvanced Micro Devicesrising.</p><p><blockquote>在周三的常规交易中，Robinhood 的股价飙升 50%，延续了上周首次公开募股疲软后的波动性上涨。半导体股是另一个亮点，Vidia 和 Advanced Micro Devices 股价上涨。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Stocks open slightly higher after fall in jobless claims<blockquote>申请失业救济人数下降后股市小幅高开</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nStocks open slightly higher after fall in jobless claims<blockquote>申请失业救济人数下降后股市小幅高开</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-08-05 21:27</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>(Aug 5)&nbsp;Stocks open slightly higher after fall in jobless claims.</p><p><blockquote>（8月5日）申请失业救济人数下降后，股市小幅开盘走高。</blockquote></p><p> Dow industrials up 94 points, or 0.3%.&nbsp;S&amp;P 500 up 0.3% at 4,414.12.&nbsp;Nasdaq Composite up less than 0.1% at 14,784.61.&nbsp;</p><p><blockquote>道琼斯工业平均指数上涨94点，或0.3%。标普500指数上涨0.3%，至4414.12点。纳斯达克综合指数上涨不到0.1%，至14784.61点。</blockquote></p><p> Fastly plunges over&nbsp;23% in morning trading&nbsp;after the company's downside Q3 and full-year guidance due to the widespread outage in June.</p><p><blockquote>由于 6 月份大范围停电，该公司第三季度和全年指引下调，早盘交易中Fastly暴跌超过 23%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/44fbcf9492918a352919cdff1fd27498\" tg-width=\"727\" tg-height=\"497\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> The moves in the stocks came after a mostly lower regular session on Wednesday. The Dow dropped more than 300 points, or 0.9%, and closed near its session low. The S&amp;P 500 slipped about 0.5%, while the Nasdaq Composite ticked up 0.1%.</p><p><blockquote>股市的波动是在周三常规交易大多走低之后发生的。道琼斯指数下跌超过300点，跌幅0.9%，收于盘中低点附近。标普500指数下跌约0.5%，而纳斯达克综合指数上涨0.1%。</blockquote></p><p> Weekly initial jobless claims came in at385,000 on Thursday,in-line with expectations. Recent earnings and economic data have been strong overall, but some economists worry economic growth and employment gains will taper from here.</p><p><blockquote>周四每周初请失业金人数为38.5万人，符合预期。最近的盈利和经济数据总体强劲，但一些经济学家担心经济增长和就业增长将从此逐渐减少。</blockquote></p><p> The jobless claims data was the last reading before the key July jobs report, which will be released on Friday morning. There is a wide range of estimates from economists and what the report will show, and some metrics for employment gains have disappointed despite a high level of reported job openings.</p><p><blockquote>申请失业救济人数数据是关键的 7 月份就业报告之前的最后读数，该报告将于周五上午发布。经济学家的估计和报告将显示的内容各不相同，尽管报告的职位空缺水平很高，但一些就业增长指标令人失望。</blockquote></p><p> \"Many factors are likely driving worker shortages; concerns about catching the virus, childcare responsibilities, skills mismatches, and generous unemployment insurance benefits,\" PNC Senior Economist Abbey Omodunbi said in an email. In the second half of the year, \"more competition for workers, particularly in the leisure and hospitality sector, will support acceleration in wage growth, boosting household incomes and consumer spending.\"</p><p><blockquote>PNC 高级经济学家阿比·奥莫敦比 (Abbey Omodonbi) 在一封电子邮件中表示：“许多因素可能导致工人短缺；对感染病毒的担忧、育儿责任、技能不匹配以及慷慨的失业保险福利。”下半年，“对工人的更多竞争，特别是在休闲和酒店业，将支持工资增长加速，增加家庭收入和消费者支出。”</blockquote></p><p> The results of an ADP private payroll survey released Wednesday showed again of 330,000 jobs for July,well short of the consensus estimate of 653,000. The Labor Department's official jobs report, which typically has more impact on investors, will be released on Friday. Economists expect the report will show the U.S. added 845,000 in non-farm payrolls in July, about even with the previous month, according to Dow Jones estimates.</p><p><blockquote>周三公布的ADP私人就业调查结果显示，7月份就业岗位再次达到33万个，远低于市场普遍预期的65.3万个。通常对投资者影响更大的劳工部官方就业报告将于周五发布。根据道琼斯的估计，经济学家预计该报告将显示美国 7 月份非农就业人数增加 845,000 人，与上月持平。</blockquote></p><p> The10-year Treasury yieldwas holding steady near 1.8% on Thursday. The yield briefly dipping below 1.13% on Wednesday before bouncing back in late morning trading.</p><p><blockquote>周四，10年期国债收益率稳定在1.8%附近。周三收益率短暂跌破 1.13%，随后在上午晚些时候交易中反弹。</blockquote></p><p> Shares ofRokudropped 6% after the company issued quarterly results.Etsyfell 12% in early trading after the company gave guidance for the current quarter that indicated the pandemic-fueled commerce boommay be coming to an end.</p><p><blockquote>Froku 发布季度业绩后，该公司股价下跌 6%。 Etsy 在早盘交易中下跌 12%，此前该公司给出了本季度的指引，表明大流行推动的商业繁荣可能即将结束。</blockquote></p><p> However, earnings season has been strong overall. Goldman Sachs raised its year-end target for the S&amp;P 500 to 4,700, representing 7% upside, in part due to an improving earnings outlook going.</p><p><blockquote>然而，财报季总体上表现强劲。高盛将标普500的年终目标上调至 4,700 股，上涨 7%，部分原因是盈利前景持续改善。</blockquote></p><p> During regular trading Wednesday, shares of Robinhoodsurged 50%, continuing a volatile jump after last week's soft initial public offering. Semiconductor stocks were another bright spot, withNvidiaandAdvanced Micro Devicesrising.</p><p><blockquote>在周三的常规交易中，Robinhood 的股价飙升 50%，延续了上周首次公开募股疲软后的波动性上涨。半导体股是另一个亮点，Vidia 和 Advanced Micro Devices 股价上涨。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1102705333","content_text":"(Aug 5) Stocks open slightly higher after fall in jobless claims.\nDow industrials up 94 points, or 0.3%. S&P 500 up 0.3% at 4,414.12. Nasdaq Composite up less than 0.1% at 14,784.61. \nFastly plunges over 23% in morning trading after the company's downside Q3 and full-year guidance due to the widespread outage in June.\n\nThe moves in the stocks came after a mostly lower regular session on Wednesday. The Dow dropped more than 300 points, or 0.9%, and closed near its session low. The S&P 500 slipped about 0.5%, while the Nasdaq Composite ticked up 0.1%.\nWeekly initial jobless claims came in at385,000 on Thursday,in-line with expectations. Recent earnings and economic data have been strong overall, but some economists worry economic growth and employment gains will taper from here.\nThe jobless claims data was the last reading before the key July jobs report, which will be released on Friday morning. There is a wide range of estimates from economists and what the report will show, and some metrics for employment gains have disappointed despite a high level of reported job openings.\n\"Many factors are likely driving worker shortages; concerns about catching the virus, childcare responsibilities, skills mismatches, and generous unemployment insurance benefits,\" PNC Senior Economist Abbey Omodunbi said in an email. In the second half of the year, \"more competition for workers, particularly in the leisure and hospitality sector, will support acceleration in wage growth, boosting household incomes and consumer spending.\"\nThe results of an ADP private payroll survey released Wednesday showed again of 330,000 jobs for July,well short of the consensus estimate of 653,000. The Labor Department's official jobs report, which typically has more impact on investors, will be released on Friday. Economists expect the report will show the U.S. added 845,000 in non-farm payrolls in July, about even with the previous month, according to Dow Jones estimates.\nThe10-year Treasury yieldwas holding steady near 1.8% on Thursday. The yield briefly dipping below 1.13% on Wednesday before bouncing back in late morning trading.\nShares ofRokudropped 6% after the company issued quarterly results.Etsyfell 12% in early trading after the company gave guidance for the current quarter that indicated the pandemic-fueled commerce boommay be coming to an end.\nHowever, earnings season has been strong overall. Goldman Sachs raised its year-end target for the S&P 500 to 4,700, representing 7% upside, in part due to an improving earnings outlook going.\nDuring regular trading Wednesday, shares of Robinhoodsurged 50%, continuing a volatile jump after last week's soft initial public offering. Semiconductor stocks were another bright spot, withNvidiaandAdvanced Micro Devicesrising.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2259,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":144183169,"gmtCreate":1626271682951,"gmtModify":1631893642279,"author":{"id":"3573867635894284","authorId":"3573867635894284","name":"Felixt","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cdb9d8a80a3cd0176dc5aaf42013604f","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573867635894284","idStr":"3573867635894284"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Like this","listText":"Like this","text":"Like this","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/144183169","repostId":"1156462382","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1156462382","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1626270302,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1156462382?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-14 21:45","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Compass Minerals shares rises 17% in early trading<blockquote>Compass Minerals 股价早盘上涨 17%</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1156462382","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"Compass Minerals’ shares rises 17% in early trading on Wednesday after the mineral producer said it ","content":"<p>Compass Minerals’ shares rises 17% in early trading on Wednesday after the mineral producer said it had found about 2.4 million metric tons of lithium carbonate equivalent (LCE) at its solar evaporation site in Utah.</p><p><blockquote>Compass Minerals 的股价在周三早盘交易中上涨了 17%，此前这家矿产生产商表示，它在犹他州的太阳能蒸发现场发现了约 240 万公吨碳酸锂当量（LCE）。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/91984098c8c865b53eed65937700dad5\" tg-width=\"1273\" tg-height=\"587\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> The announcement, released after market hours on Tuesday, comes as demand and prices for the battery metal has climbed due to aggressive electric vehicle production plans by automakers.</p><p><blockquote>该公告于周二盘后发布，正值汽车制造商积极的电动汽车生产计划导致电池金属的需求和价格攀升之际。</blockquote></p><p> The company, which produces salt, plant nutrients and magnesium chloride, said it had identified an indicated lithium resource within the ambient brine of the Great Salt Lake.</p><p><blockquote>这家生产盐、植物营养素和氯化镁的公司表示，它已经在大盐湖的环境盐水中发现了指示的锂资源。</blockquote></p><p> A large part of lithium is extracted from brine or seawater.</p><p><blockquote>大部分锂是从盐水或海水中提取的。</blockquote></p><p> Electric vehicle batteries can use lithium carbonate or lithium hydroxide, but the industry typically uses lithium carbonate equivalent (LCE) which contains both.</p><p><blockquote>电动汽车电池可以使用碳酸锂或氢氧化锂，但工业通常使用含有两者的碳酸锂当量（LCE）。</blockquote></p><p> The company said it was evaluating the means of extracting the lithium, which accumulates through its current solar evaporation process and can be accessed through its existing leases and permits, adding that it was in late-stage talks to select a direct lithium extraction technology provider.</p><p><blockquote>该公司表示，正在评估提取锂的方法，锂是通过当前的太阳能蒸发过程积累的，可以通过现有的租赁和许可证获得，并补充说，该公司正处于选择直接锂提取技术提供商的后期谈判。</blockquote></p><p> Compass said an initial assessment estimated total combined indicated and inferred lithium resources of about 127,000 metric tons of LCE at its active Ogden site. The assessment also identified an additional indicated lithium resource of about 2.32 million metric tons of LCE.</p><p><blockquote>Compass 表示，初步评估估计其奥格登活跃基地的指示和推断锂资源总量约为 127,000 公吨 LCE。评估还确定了约 232 万公吨 LCE 的额外指示锂资源。</blockquote></p><p> The company said it was targeting an annual production capacity in the range of about 20,000 to 25,000 metric tons of LCE, with up to 65% of the future production derived from brine that has already been extracted from the Great Salt Lake.</p><p><blockquote>该公司表示，其目标是年产能约为 20,000 至 25,000 吨 LCE，其中未来产量的 65% 来自已从大盐湖提取的盐水。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Compass Minerals shares rises 17% in early trading<blockquote>Compass Minerals 股价早盘上涨 17%</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nCompass Minerals shares rises 17% in early trading<blockquote>Compass Minerals 股价早盘上涨 17%</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-07-14 21:45</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Compass Minerals’ shares rises 17% in early trading on Wednesday after the mineral producer said it had found about 2.4 million metric tons of lithium carbonate equivalent (LCE) at its solar evaporation site in Utah.</p><p><blockquote>Compass Minerals 的股价在周三早盘交易中上涨了 17%，此前这家矿产生产商表示，它在犹他州的太阳能蒸发现场发现了约 240 万公吨碳酸锂当量（LCE）。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/91984098c8c865b53eed65937700dad5\" tg-width=\"1273\" tg-height=\"587\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> The announcement, released after market hours on Tuesday, comes as demand and prices for the battery metal has climbed due to aggressive electric vehicle production plans by automakers.</p><p><blockquote>该公告于周二盘后发布，正值汽车制造商积极的电动汽车生产计划导致电池金属的需求和价格攀升之际。</blockquote></p><p> The company, which produces salt, plant nutrients and magnesium chloride, said it had identified an indicated lithium resource within the ambient brine of the Great Salt Lake.</p><p><blockquote>这家生产盐、植物营养素和氯化镁的公司表示，它已经在大盐湖的环境盐水中发现了指示的锂资源。</blockquote></p><p> A large part of lithium is extracted from brine or seawater.</p><p><blockquote>大部分锂是从盐水或海水中提取的。</blockquote></p><p> Electric vehicle batteries can use lithium carbonate or lithium hydroxide, but the industry typically uses lithium carbonate equivalent (LCE) which contains both.</p><p><blockquote>电动汽车电池可以使用碳酸锂或氢氧化锂，但工业通常使用含有两者的碳酸锂当量（LCE）。</blockquote></p><p> The company said it was evaluating the means of extracting the lithium, which accumulates through its current solar evaporation process and can be accessed through its existing leases and permits, adding that it was in late-stage talks to select a direct lithium extraction technology provider.</p><p><blockquote>该公司表示，正在评估提取锂的方法，锂是通过当前的太阳能蒸发过程积累的，可以通过现有的租赁和许可证获得，并补充说，该公司正处于选择直接锂提取技术提供商的后期谈判。</blockquote></p><p> Compass said an initial assessment estimated total combined indicated and inferred lithium resources of about 127,000 metric tons of LCE at its active Ogden site. The assessment also identified an additional indicated lithium resource of about 2.32 million metric tons of LCE.</p><p><blockquote>Compass 表示，初步评估估计其奥格登活跃基地的指示和推断锂资源总量约为 127,000 公吨 LCE。评估还确定了约 232 万公吨 LCE 的额外指示锂资源。</blockquote></p><p> The company said it was targeting an annual production capacity in the range of about 20,000 to 25,000 metric tons of LCE, with up to 65% of the future production derived from brine that has already been extracted from the Great Salt Lake.</p><p><blockquote>该公司表示，其目标是年产能约为 20,000 至 25,000 吨 LCE，其中未来产量的 65% 来自已从大盐湖提取的盐水。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"CMP":"罗盘矿物"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1156462382","content_text":"Compass Minerals’ shares rises 17% in early trading on Wednesday after the mineral producer said it had found about 2.4 million metric tons of lithium carbonate equivalent (LCE) at its solar evaporation site in Utah.\n\nThe announcement, released after market hours on Tuesday, comes as demand and prices for the battery metal has climbed due to aggressive electric vehicle production plans by automakers.\nThe company, which produces salt, plant nutrients and magnesium chloride, said it had identified an indicated lithium resource within the ambient brine of the Great Salt Lake.\nA large part of lithium is extracted from brine or seawater.\nElectric vehicle batteries can use lithium carbonate or lithium hydroxide, but the industry typically uses lithium carbonate equivalent (LCE) which contains both.\nThe company said it was evaluating the means of extracting the lithium, which accumulates through its current solar evaporation process and can be accessed through its existing leases and permits, adding that it was in late-stage talks to select a direct lithium extraction technology provider.\nCompass said an initial assessment estimated total combined indicated and inferred lithium resources of about 127,000 metric tons of LCE at its active Ogden site. The assessment also identified an additional indicated lithium resource of about 2.32 million metric tons of LCE.\nThe company said it was targeting an annual production capacity in the range of about 20,000 to 25,000 metric tons of LCE, with up to 65% of the future production derived from brine that has already been extracted from the Great Salt Lake.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"CMP":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1270,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":143104115,"gmtCreate":1625771859237,"gmtModify":1631893642325,"author":{"id":"3573867635894284","authorId":"3573867635894284","name":"Felixt","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cdb9d8a80a3cd0176dc5aaf42013604f","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573867635894284","idStr":"3573867635894284"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Qqqq","listText":"Qqqq","text":"Qqqq","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/143104115","repostId":"1145034030","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1106,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":175989817,"gmtCreate":1627002519339,"gmtModify":1631891339642,"author":{"id":"3573867635894284","authorId":"3573867635894284","name":"Felixt","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cdb9d8a80a3cd0176dc5aaf42013604f","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573867635894284","idStr":"3573867635894284"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"like","listText":"like","text":"like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/175989817","repostId":"2153677788","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2173,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}