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2021-07-15

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Goldman Sees Oil Price Spiking On UAE/OPEC+ Deal<blockquote>高盛预计阿联酋/OPEC+协议导致油价飙升</blockquote>

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Additionally, the EIA’s estimate, known as product supplied, is derived from other data rather than being a direct measurement of consumption. Since that method often leads to erratic numbers, some observers prefer to use the 4-week rolling average. That measure was 9.485 million barrels a day, which was about equal to the same week in 2019<blockquote>虽然algos关注的是大幅下降，但他们忽略了这个数字在很大程度上毫无意义，因为报告周包括7月5日，这是美国人的休息日。此外，EIA的估计（称为产品供应量）来自其他数据，而不是直接衡量消费量。由于这种方法经常导致不稳定的数字，一些观察者更喜欢使用4周滚动平均值。该指标为948.5万桶/日，与2019年同周大致持平</blockquote> None of that mattered, however, as CTAs quickly joined in the selling frenzy and completely erasing the earlier jump on the far more important news of an OPEC+ deal.<blockquote>然而，这些都不重要，因为CTA很快加入了抛售狂潮，并完全抹去了早些时候因欧佩克+协议这一更重要的消息而出现的上涨。</blockquote> Just how important was the Reuters report that the UAE and Saudi Arabia are close to reaching a production agreement, one which sees both the higher baseline requested by the UAE (of 3.65 mb/d starting in April 2022) as well as an extension of the output agreement requested by Saudi (through December 2022). Important enough that in a note released late on Wednesday, Goldman said that the deal would remove the low-probability tail risks of potential price war, and \"represents $2 to $4/bbl upside risk to our $80/bbl summer and $75/bbl 2022 Brent price forecasts.\"<blockquote>路透社报道阿联酋和沙特阿拉伯即将达成一项生产协议，这有多重要，该协议既包括阿联酋要求的更高基线（从2022年4月开始为3.65 mb/d），也包括延长产量沙特要求的产量协议（至2022年12月）。重要的是，高盛在周三晚些时候发布的一份报告中表示，该交易将消除潜在价格战的低概率尾部风险，并且“我们夏季80美元/桶和2022年布伦特原油价格预测为75美元/桶，面临2至4美元/桶的上行风险。”</blockquote> In the note from Goldman commodity analysts Damien Courvalin and Jeff Currie, the two also write that the expected agreement “as the ﬁrst of likely four potential bullish supply catalysts over the coming month” that would more than offset higher North American production. Additionally, although some OPEC+ details remain uncertain, like August and September quotas or baselines of other countries, “these are of limited magnitude and importance to the global oil market outlook, which the bank continues to see as supportive of higher oil prices”<blockquote>高盛大宗商品分析师达米安·库尔瓦林(Damien Courvalin)和杰夫·柯里(Jeff Currie)在报告中还写道，预期的协议“是未来一个月四个潜在看涨供应催化剂中的第一个”，将足以抵消北美产量的增加。此外，尽管OPEC+的一些细节仍不确定，例如8月和9月的配额或其他国家的基线，但“这些对全球石油市场前景的规模和重要性有限，该行继续认为这支持油价上涨”</blockquote> Piling on the bullish cash, Courvalin writes that an OPEC+ deal that offers a higher baseline for the UAE, as well as an extension of output agreement through December 2022 - such as the one being contemplated -&nbsp; would be bullish relative to Goldman’s base case<blockquote>Courvalin写道，为阿联酋提供更高基线的OPEC+协议以及将产量协议延长至2022年12月（例如正在考虑的协议）相对于高盛的基本情况将是看涨的。</blockquote> And speaking of Goldman's forecasts, the bank had assumed a 500kb/d ramp-up starting in August as well as a gradually rising UAE baseline from 3.17m b/d to 3.3m b/d in August to 3.65m b/d by the end of 1Q 2022. As a result, such a deal would imply downside risk to its OPEC+ production forecast of 400k-600k b/d on average for 3Q 2021-1Q 2022, depending on whether the lack of August production hike is compensated for in September. Needless to say, that too is bullish for the price of oil... and yet one look at the collapse in oil prices today and one would be left shocked at just how dumb the algos have become.<blockquote>谈到高盛的预测，该行假设从8月份开始增产500kb/d，阿联酋的基线从8月份的317万b/d逐渐上升到330万b/d，到2022年第一季度末达到365万b/d。因此，这样的协议将意味着其2021年第三季度至2022年第一季度平均40万至60万桶/日的OPEC+产量预测面临下行风险，具体取决于8月份增产的不足是否在9月份得到弥补。不用说，这也对油价有利...然而，看看今天油价的暴跌，你会对算法变得多么愚蠢感到震惊。</blockquote> Finally, it's not just the UAE/OPEC+ deal that makes Goldman's commodities team hopeful - the bank’s other three potential bullish supply catalysts are listed as:-<blockquote>最后，不仅仅是阿联酋/OPEC+协议让高盛的大宗商品团队充满希望——该行的其他三个潜在看涨供应催化剂被列为：-</blockquote> <ul> <li>Upcoming shale earnings season, which may reaffirm greater incentive toward returning cash to shareholders over production growth</li> <li>That progress on the U.S. reaching an agreement with Iran has stalled, setting back the potential ramp up of exports</li> <li>Bank’s view that consensus expectations for global production outside of North America and core-OPEC remain too optimistic</li> </ul> Below we excerpt from the full note:<blockquote><ul><li>即将到来的页岩油财报季，这可能会重申通过产量增长向股东返还现金的更大动力</li><li>美国与伊朗达成协议的进展停滞不前，阻碍了出口的潜在增长</li><li>银行认为，对北美和OPEC核心以外的全球产量的普遍预期仍然过于乐观</li></ul>下面我们摘录全文：</blockquote> <ul> <li>The UAE and Saudi Arabia appear close to reaching a production agreement, with Reuters reporting progress towards a deal that would allow for both the higher baseline requested by the UAE (of 3.65 mb/d starting in April 2022) as well as an extension of the output agreement requested by Saudi (through December 2022).We assume that the such a deal - if conﬁrmed - would likely come alongside a gradual 0.4 mb/d monthly ramp-up in production through December 2021, as all OPEC+ members had already supported this decision.</li> <li>Such an agreement would help bridge the (modest) divide between both countries andhelp remove the (low probability) OPEC+ tail risks of a potential price war or insufﬁcient production growth, as we expected.While some details remain uncertain, like the August and September quotas or the baseline of other countries, these are of limited magnitude and importance to the global oil market outlook,which we continue to see as supportive of higher oil prices.</li> <li>Importantly,such an OPEC+ agreement would be bullish relative to our base-case, as we had assumed (1) a 0.5 mb/d ramp-up starting in August as well as (2) a gradually rising UAE baseline from 3.17 mb/d to 3.3 mb/d in August to 3.65 mb/d by the end of 1Q22 (given its clear inequity).As a result, a deal as described above wouldimply downside risk to our OPEC+ production forecast of 0.4 to 0.6 mb/d on average for 3Q21-1Q22(depending on whether the lack of August production hike is compensated for in September).</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/47c75c93814aad90865576eeb1666992\" tg-width=\"651\" tg-height=\"527\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">All else equal, this would represent $2 to $4/bbl upside risk to our $80/bbl summer and $75/bbl 2022 Brent price forecasts.As a result,&nbsp;we believe that risks to our bullish oil price forecasts are skewed to the upside, with the catalyst for such a move higher shifting from the demand to the supply side. While our bullish view this year had been driven by our well above consensus demand growth forecast, this is no longer the case with (1) the sharp rebound in global oil demand that has taken place since May, from 95 to 98 mb/d currently and near our 99 mb/d end of summer forecast, mostly played out, with (2) the IEA expecting similar peak summer demand, and with (3) the EM vaccine led demand uplift set to only play out gradually through 1Q22.<blockquote><ul><li>阿联酋和沙特阿拉伯似乎即将达成一项生产协议，路透社报道了一项协议的进展，该协议将允许阿联酋要求的更高基线（从2022年4月开始为365万桶/日）以及延长沙特要求的产量协议（至2022年12月）。我们假设，这样的协议（如果得到确认）可能会伴随着到2021年12月每月产量逐步增加40万桶/日，因为所有OPEC+成员国都已经支持这一决定。</li><li>这样的协议将有助于弥合两国之间的（适度）分歧正如我们预期的那样，有助于消除潜在价格战或产量增长不足的（低概率）OPEC+尾部风险。虽然一些细节仍然不确定，如8月和9月的配额或其他国家的基准，但这些对全球石油市场前景的规模和重要性有限，我们继续认为这支持油价上涨。</li><li>重要的是，相对于我们的基本情况，这样的OPEC+协议将是看涨的，因为我们假设（1）从8月份开始增加0.5 mb/d，以及（2）阿联酋基线从3.17 mb/d逐渐上升到8月份的3.3 mb/d，到2022年第一季度结束时达到3.65 mb/d（鉴于其明显的不平等）。因此，上述交易将这意味着我们对2021年第三季度-2022年第一季度平均0.4至0.6 mb/d的OPEC+产量预测存在下行风险（取决于8月份增产的不足是否在9月份得到弥补）。</li></ul>在其他条件相同的情况下，这将意味着我们夏季80美元/桶和2022年75美元/桶布伦特价格预测的2至4美元/桶的上行风险。结果，我们认为，我们看涨油价预测的风险偏向上行，这种上涨的催化剂从需求转向供应方面.虽然我们今年的看涨观点是由我们远高于共识的需求增长预测推动的，但情况已不再如此，因为(1)自5月份以来全球石油需求大幅反弹，目前从95 MB/d反弹至98 mb/d目前接近我们夏末预测的99 mb/d，大部分已实现，(2)IEA预计夏季需求峰值类似，以及(3)新兴市场疫苗引领的需求提振只会通过2022年第一季度逐渐显现。</blockquote> A shift in market focus to the supply will make increasingly evident that the industry’s costs have reset sharply higher, due to (1) poor accumulated returns of the past 5 years, (2) the inﬂationary impact of internalizing carbon emissions and (3) the rising uncertainty and pessimism on long-term oil demand.&nbsp;As a result, we initiate a new trade recommendation to be long Dec-22 Brent forwards, currently trading at $67.06/bbl. This entry point is below our Dec-22 spot forecast of $75/bbl due to backwardation and further offers a proxy trade for a re-setting higher of the oil market’s marginal costs.<blockquote>市场焦点向供应的转移将越来越明显地表明，由于（1）过去5年的累计回报不佳，（2）碳排放内部化的通货膨胀影响，以及（3）长期石油需求的不确定性和悲观情绪上升。因此，我们提出新的交易建议，做多12月22日布伦特原油期货，目前交易价格为67.06美元/桶。由于现货溢价，这一进场点低于我们12月22日75美元/桶的现货预测，并进一步为重新设定更高的石油市场边际成本提供了代理交易。</blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Goldman Sees Oil Price Spiking On UAE/OPEC+ Deal<blockquote>高盛预计阿联酋/OPEC+协议导致油价飙升</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nGoldman Sees Oil Price Spiking On UAE/OPEC+ Deal<blockquote>高盛预计阿联酋/OPEC+协议导致油价飙升</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nzerohedge2021-07-15 10:41\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nOil suffered its biggest drop in 2.5 months today after the EIA reported that in the latest week, gasoline demand in the US unexpectedly tumbled by 760,000 barrels a day from the record 10 million barrels a day a week, to 9.28 million barrels a day to get back to levels in late June.<blockquote>EIA报告称，最近一周，美国汽油需求意外下降76万桶/日，从创纪录的每周1000万桶/日降至928万桶/日，油价今天遭遇2.5个月来最大跌幅。回到六月下旬的水平。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/96a51307958cb16bc6d3451c273dc614\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"662\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">While algos focused on the sharp drop, what they ignored was that the number was largely meaningless, since the reporting week included July 5, a day off for Americans. Additionally, the EIA’s estimate, known as product supplied, is derived from other data rather than being a direct measurement of consumption. Since that method often leads to erratic numbers, some observers prefer to use the 4-week rolling average. That measure was 9.485 million barrels a day, which was about equal to the same week in 2019<blockquote>虽然algos关注的是大幅下降，但他们忽略了这个数字在很大程度上毫无意义，因为报告周包括7月5日，这是美国人的休息日。此外，EIA的估计（称为产品供应量）来自其他数据，而不是直接衡量消费量。由于这种方法经常导致不稳定的数字，一些观察者更喜欢使用4周滚动平均值。该指标为948.5万桶/日，与2019年同周大致持平</blockquote> None of that mattered, however, as CTAs quickly joined in the selling frenzy and completely erasing the earlier jump on the far more important news of an OPEC+ deal.<blockquote>然而，这些都不重要，因为CTA很快加入了抛售狂潮，并完全抹去了早些时候因欧佩克+协议这一更重要的消息而出现的上涨。</blockquote> Just how important was the Reuters report that the UAE and Saudi Arabia are close to reaching a production agreement, one which sees both the higher baseline requested by the UAE (of 3.65 mb/d starting in April 2022) as well as an extension of the output agreement requested by Saudi (through December 2022). Important enough that in a note released late on Wednesday, Goldman said that the deal would remove the low-probability tail risks of potential price war, and \"represents $2 to $4/bbl upside risk to our $80/bbl summer and $75/bbl 2022 Brent price forecasts.\"<blockquote>路透社报道阿联酋和沙特阿拉伯即将达成一项生产协议，这有多重要，该协议既包括阿联酋要求的更高基线（从2022年4月开始为3.65 mb/d），也包括延长产量沙特要求的产量协议（至2022年12月）。重要的是，高盛在周三晚些时候发布的一份报告中表示，该交易将消除潜在价格战的低概率尾部风险，并且“我们夏季80美元/桶和2022年布伦特原油价格预测为75美元/桶，面临2至4美元/桶的上行风险。”</blockquote> In the note from Goldman commodity analysts Damien Courvalin and Jeff Currie, the two also write that the expected agreement “as the ﬁrst of likely four potential bullish supply catalysts over the coming month” that would more than offset higher North American production. Additionally, although some OPEC+ details remain uncertain, like August and September quotas or baselines of other countries, “these are of limited magnitude and importance to the global oil market outlook, which the bank continues to see as supportive of higher oil prices”<blockquote>高盛大宗商品分析师达米安·库尔瓦林(Damien Courvalin)和杰夫·柯里(Jeff Currie)在报告中还写道，预期的协议“是未来一个月四个潜在看涨供应催化剂中的第一个”，将足以抵消北美产量的增加。此外，尽管OPEC+的一些细节仍不确定，例如8月和9月的配额或其他国家的基线，但“这些对全球石油市场前景的规模和重要性有限，该行继续认为这支持油价上涨”</blockquote> Piling on the bullish cash, Courvalin writes that an OPEC+ deal that offers a higher baseline for the UAE, as well as an extension of output agreement through December 2022 - such as the one being contemplated -&nbsp; would be bullish relative to Goldman’s base case<blockquote>Courvalin写道，为阿联酋提供更高基线的OPEC+协议以及将产量协议延长至2022年12月（例如正在考虑的协议）相对于高盛的基本情况将是看涨的。</blockquote> And speaking of Goldman's forecasts, the bank had assumed a 500kb/d ramp-up starting in August as well as a gradually rising UAE baseline from 3.17m b/d to 3.3m b/d in August to 3.65m b/d by the end of 1Q 2022. As a result, such a deal would imply downside risk to its OPEC+ production forecast of 400k-600k b/d on average for 3Q 2021-1Q 2022, depending on whether the lack of August production hike is compensated for in September. Needless to say, that too is bullish for the price of oil... and yet one look at the collapse in oil prices today and one would be left shocked at just how dumb the algos have become.<blockquote>谈到高盛的预测，该行假设从8月份开始增产500kb/d，阿联酋的基线从8月份的317万b/d逐渐上升到330万b/d，到2022年第一季度末达到365万b/d。因此，这样的协议将意味着其2021年第三季度至2022年第一季度平均40万至60万桶/日的OPEC+产量预测面临下行风险，具体取决于8月份增产的不足是否在9月份得到弥补。不用说，这也对油价有利...然而，看看今天油价的暴跌，你会对算法变得多么愚蠢感到震惊。</blockquote> Finally, it's not just the UAE/OPEC+ deal that makes Goldman's commodities team hopeful - the bank’s other three potential bullish supply catalysts are listed as:-<blockquote>最后，不仅仅是阿联酋/OPEC+协议让高盛的大宗商品团队充满希望——该行的其他三个潜在看涨供应催化剂被列为：-</blockquote> <ul> <li>Upcoming shale earnings season, which may reaffirm greater incentive toward returning cash to shareholders over production growth</li> <li>That progress on the U.S. reaching an agreement with Iran has stalled, setting back the potential ramp up of exports</li> <li>Bank’s view that consensus expectations for global production outside of North America and core-OPEC remain too optimistic</li> </ul> Below we excerpt from the full note:<blockquote><ul><li>即将到来的页岩油财报季，这可能会重申通过产量增长向股东返还现金的更大动力</li><li>美国与伊朗达成协议的进展停滞不前，阻碍了出口的潜在增长</li><li>银行认为，对北美和OPEC核心以外的全球产量的普遍预期仍然过于乐观</li></ul>下面我们摘录全文：</blockquote> <ul> <li>The UAE and Saudi Arabia appear close to reaching a production agreement, with Reuters reporting progress towards a deal that would allow for both the higher baseline requested by the UAE (of 3.65 mb/d starting in April 2022) as well as an extension of the output agreement requested by Saudi (through December 2022).We assume that the such a deal - if conﬁrmed - would likely come alongside a gradual 0.4 mb/d monthly ramp-up in production through December 2021, as all OPEC+ members had already supported this decision.</li> <li>Such an agreement would help bridge the (modest) divide between both countries andhelp remove the (low probability) OPEC+ tail risks of a potential price war or insufﬁcient production growth, as we expected.While some details remain uncertain, like the August and September quotas or the baseline of other countries, these are of limited magnitude and importance to the global oil market outlook,which we continue to see as supportive of higher oil prices.</li> <li>Importantly,such an OPEC+ agreement would be bullish relative to our base-case, as we had assumed (1) a 0.5 mb/d ramp-up starting in August as well as (2) a gradually rising UAE baseline from 3.17 mb/d to 3.3 mb/d in August to 3.65 mb/d by the end of 1Q22 (given its clear inequity).As a result, a deal as described above wouldimply downside risk to our OPEC+ production forecast of 0.4 to 0.6 mb/d on average for 3Q21-1Q22(depending on whether the lack of August production hike is compensated for in September).</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/47c75c93814aad90865576eeb1666992\" tg-width=\"651\" tg-height=\"527\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">All else equal, this would represent $2 to $4/bbl upside risk to our $80/bbl summer and $75/bbl 2022 Brent price forecasts.As a result,&nbsp;we believe that risks to our bullish oil price forecasts are skewed to the upside, with the catalyst for such a move higher shifting from the demand to the supply side. While our bullish view this year had been driven by our well above consensus demand growth forecast, this is no longer the case with (1) the sharp rebound in global oil demand that has taken place since May, from 95 to 98 mb/d currently and near our 99 mb/d end of summer forecast, mostly played out, with (2) the IEA expecting similar peak summer demand, and with (3) the EM vaccine led demand uplift set to only play out gradually through 1Q22.<blockquote><ul><li>阿联酋和沙特阿拉伯似乎即将达成一项生产协议，路透社报道了一项协议的进展，该协议将允许阿联酋要求的更高基线（从2022年4月开始为365万桶/日）以及延长沙特要求的产量协议（至2022年12月）。我们假设，这样的协议（如果得到确认）可能会伴随着到2021年12月每月产量逐步增加40万桶/日，因为所有OPEC+成员国都已经支持这一决定。</li><li>这样的协议将有助于弥合两国之间的（适度）分歧正如我们预期的那样，有助于消除潜在价格战或产量增长不足的（低概率）OPEC+尾部风险。虽然一些细节仍然不确定，如8月和9月的配额或其他国家的基准，但这些对全球石油市场前景的规模和重要性有限，我们继续认为这支持油价上涨。</li><li>重要的是，相对于我们的基本情况，这样的OPEC+协议将是看涨的，因为我们假设（1）从8月份开始增加0.5 mb/d，以及（2）阿联酋基线从3.17 mb/d逐渐上升到8月份的3.3 mb/d，到2022年第一季度结束时达到3.65 mb/d（鉴于其明显的不平等）。因此，上述交易将这意味着我们对2021年第三季度-2022年第一季度平均0.4至0.6 mb/d的OPEC+产量预测存在下行风险（取决于8月份增产的不足是否在9月份得到弥补）。</li></ul>在其他条件相同的情况下，这将意味着我们夏季80美元/桶和2022年75美元/桶布伦特价格预测的2至4美元/桶的上行风险。结果，我们认为，我们看涨油价预测的风险偏向上行，这种上涨的催化剂从需求转向供应方面.虽然我们今年的看涨观点是由我们远高于共识的需求增长预测推动的，但情况已不再如此，因为(1)自5月份以来全球石油需求大幅反弹，目前从95 MB/d反弹至98 mb/d目前接近我们夏末预测的99 mb/d，大部分已实现，(2)IEA预计夏季需求峰值类似，以及(3)新兴市场疫苗引领的需求提振只会通过2022年第一季度逐渐显现。</blockquote> A shift in market focus to the supply will make increasingly evident that the industry’s costs have reset sharply higher, due to (1) poor accumulated returns of the past 5 years, (2) the inﬂationary impact of internalizing carbon emissions and (3) the rising uncertainty and pessimism on long-term oil demand.&nbsp;As a result, we initiate a new trade recommendation to be long Dec-22 Brent forwards, currently trading at $67.06/bbl. This entry point is below our Dec-22 spot forecast of $75/bbl due to backwardation and further offers a proxy trade for a re-setting higher of the oil market’s marginal costs.<blockquote>市场焦点向供应的转移将越来越明显地表明，由于（1）过去5年的累计回报不佳，（2）碳排放内部化的通货膨胀影响，以及（3）长期石油需求的不确定性和悲观情绪上升。因此，我们提出新的交易建议，做多12月22日布伦特原油期货，目前交易价格为67.06美元/桶。由于现货溢价，这一进场点低于我们12月22日75美元/桶的现货预测，并进一步为重新设定更高的石油市场边际成本提供了代理交易。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/goldman-sees-oil-price-spiking-uaeopec-deal\">zerohedge</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/goldman-sees-oil-price-spiking-uaeopec-deal","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1122758076","content_text":"Oil suffered its biggest drop in 2.5 months today after the EIA reported that in the latest week, gasoline demand in the US unexpectedly tumbled by 760,000 barrels a day from the record 10 million barrels a day a week, to 9.28 million barrels a day to get back to levels in late June.\nWhile algos focused on the sharp drop, what they ignored was that the number was largely meaningless, since the reporting week included July 5, a day off for Americans. Additionally, the EIA’s estimate, known as product supplied, is derived from other data rather than being a direct measurement of consumption. Since that method often leads to erratic numbers, some observers prefer to use the 4-week rolling average. That measure was 9.485 million barrels a day, which was about equal to the same week in 2019\nNone of that mattered, however, as CTAs quickly joined in the selling frenzy and completely erasing the earlier jump on the far more important news of an OPEC+ deal.\nJust how important was the Reuters report that the UAE and Saudi Arabia are close to reaching a production agreement, one which sees both the higher baseline requested by the UAE (of 3.65 mb/d starting in April 2022) as well as an extension of the output agreement requested by Saudi (through December 2022). Important enough that in a note released late on Wednesday, Goldman said that the deal would remove the low-probability tail risks of potential price war, and \"represents $2 to $4/bbl upside risk to our $80/bbl summer and $75/bbl 2022 Brent price forecasts.\"\nIn the note from Goldman commodity analysts Damien Courvalin and Jeff Currie, the two also write that the expected agreement “as the ﬁrst of likely four potential bullish supply catalysts over the coming month” that would more than offset higher North American production. Additionally, although some OPEC+ details remain uncertain, like August and September quotas or baselines of other countries, “these are of limited magnitude and importance to the global oil market outlook, which the bank continues to see as supportive of higher oil prices”\nPiling on the bullish cash, Courvalin writes that an OPEC+ deal that offers a higher baseline for the UAE, as well as an extension of output agreement through December 2022 - such as the one being contemplated -  would be bullish relative to Goldman’s base case\nAnd speaking of Goldman's forecasts, the bank had assumed a 500kb/d ramp-up starting in August as well as a gradually rising UAE baseline from 3.17m b/d to 3.3m b/d in August to 3.65m b/d by the end of 1Q 2022. As a result, such a deal would imply downside risk to its OPEC+ production forecast of 400k-600k b/d on average for 3Q 2021-1Q 2022, depending on whether the lack of August production hike is compensated for in September. Needless to say, that too is bullish for the price of oil... and yet one look at the collapse in oil prices today and one would be left shocked at just how dumb the algos have become.\nFinally, it's not just the UAE/OPEC+ deal that makes Goldman's commodities team hopeful - the bank’s other three potential bullish supply catalysts are listed as:-\n\nUpcoming shale earnings season, which may reaffirm greater incentive toward returning cash to shareholders over production growth\nThat progress on the U.S. reaching an agreement with Iran has stalled, setting back the potential ramp up of exports\nBank’s view that consensus expectations for global production outside of North America and core-OPEC remain too optimistic\n\nBelow we excerpt from the full note:\n\nThe UAE and Saudi Arabia appear close to reaching a production agreement, with Reuters reporting progress towards a deal that would allow for both the higher baseline requested by the UAE (of 3.65 mb/d starting in April 2022) as well as an extension of the output agreement requested by Saudi (through December 2022).We assume that the such a deal - if conﬁrmed - would likely come alongside a gradual 0.4 mb/d monthly ramp-up in production through December 2021, as all OPEC+ members had already supported this decision.\nSuch an agreement would help bridge the (modest) divide between both countries andhelp remove the (low probability) OPEC+ tail risks of a potential price war or insufﬁcient production growth, as we expected.While some details remain uncertain, like the August and September quotas or the baseline of other countries, these are of limited magnitude and importance to the global oil market outlook,which we continue to see as supportive of higher oil prices.\nImportantly,such an OPEC+ agreement would be bullish relative to our base-case, as we had assumed (1) a 0.5 mb/d ramp-up starting in August as well as (2) a gradually rising UAE baseline from 3.17 mb/d to 3.3 mb/d in August to 3.65 mb/d by the end of 1Q22 (given its clear inequity).As a result, a deal as described above wouldimply downside risk to our OPEC+ production forecast of 0.4 to 0.6 mb/d on average for 3Q21-1Q22(depending on whether the lack of August production hike is compensated for in September).\n\nAll else equal, this would represent $2 to $4/bbl upside risk to our $80/bbl summer and $75/bbl 2022 Brent price forecasts.As a result, we believe that risks to our bullish oil price forecasts are skewed to the upside, with the catalyst for such a move higher shifting from the demand to the supply side. While our bullish view this year had been driven by our well above consensus demand growth forecast, this is no longer the case with (1) the sharp rebound in global oil demand that has taken place since May, from 95 to 98 mb/d currently and near our 99 mb/d end of summer forecast, mostly played out, with (2) the IEA expecting similar peak summer demand, and with (3) the EM vaccine led demand uplift set to only play out gradually through 1Q22.\nA shift in market focus to the supply will make increasingly evident that the industry’s costs have reset sharply higher, due to (1) poor accumulated returns of the past 5 years, (2) the inﬂationary impact of internalizing carbon emissions and (3) the rising uncertainty and pessimism on long-term oil demand. As a result, we initiate a new trade recommendation to be long Dec-22 Brent forwards, currently trading at $67.06/bbl. This entry point is below our Dec-22 spot forecast of $75/bbl due to backwardation and further offers a proxy trade for a re-setting higher of the oil market’s marginal costs.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"BZmain":0.9,"CLmain":0.9,"MCLmain":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1950,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":7,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/147096181"}