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ShuJie

ShuJie

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2021-12-01

Very pops

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2021-10-25

Alphabets!

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2021-09-17

Wow

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2021-08-21

Very smart company, heard that they want to come out with 3rd vaccine. Really know how to earn money

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2021-08-11

Ok!

The Ark Funds' Actions to Lighten up China Concepts Stocks<blockquote>方舟基金减仓中概股的动作</blockquote>

2021-08-10

Maybe that’s the reason for the surge in Golden Nuggets 50+%! Hohoho

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2021-08-05

Wow!!!

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2021-07-15

Wow good

Goldman Sees Oil Price Spiking On UAE/OPEC+ Deal<blockquote>高盛预计阿联酋/OPEC+协议导致油价飙升</blockquote>

2021-07-13

//@HMian:It’s low indeed

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2021-07-12

Okay

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2021-07-09

Sold haha

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2021-07-06

Wow I shall share with my friend

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2021-07-02

Ok put to watchlist

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2021-07-01

Meme stocks

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2021-06-30

Put in watching list! 😆

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2021-06-29

Follow

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2021-06-28

Have confidence! And make the stock goes up😎

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2021-06-24

Finally

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2021-06-20

Buy buy buy

3 Meme Stocks Wall Street Predicts Will Plunge More Than 20%<blockquote>华尔街预测3只模因股将暴跌20%以上</blockquote>

2021-06-18

Cheaper stock to buy in comparison to Tesla

NIO Is Winning<blockquote>蔚来正在获胜</blockquote>

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Thereinto, one of them has liquidated or been gradually liquidating&nbsp;their holdings. According to the daily operations of the Ark Funds, it has been&nbsp;reducing its positions in China Concepts Stocks including Tencent, and has&nbsp;never increased its positions, although the afore-mentioned stocks have&nbsp;rebounded to some extent recently. A more pleasing signal appeared lately is&nbsp;that the Ark Funds has stopped lightening up Chinese stocks.</p><p><blockquote>在二级市场上，有两类美国基金愿意在中国进行投资。其中，其中一家公司已经清算或正在逐步清算其持有的股份。根据方舟基金的日常操作，其一直在减仓包括腾讯控股在内的中概股，从未加仓，尽管前述股票近期出现了一定反弹。最近出现的一个更令人高兴的信号是，方舟基金已经停止减仓中国股票。</blockquote></p><p> On July 1st, a&nbsp;total of 10 Chinese stocks listed in the U.S. are covered by the Ark Funds, including&nbsp;8 China Concept Stocks and 2 Hong Kong stocks traded in U.S. over-the-counter (OTC).&nbsp;Based on the closing price of the day, these 10 stocks totaled $1.8 billion, as&nbsp;shown in the following figure.</p><p><blockquote>7月1日，方舟基金共覆盖了10只在美上市的中概股，其中包括8只在美国场外交易（OTC）交易的中概股和2只港股，以当日收盘价计算，这10只股票合计吸金18亿美元，如下图所示。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5be54c5dfdf52cd1c4ea28364f2dc37a\" tg-width=\"622\" tg-height=\"320\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <b>About Its Positions</b></p><p><blockquote><b>关于其立场</b></blockquote></p><p> As a fund that&nbsp;is not active enough to invest in Chinese stocks, it is hard to say that the size&nbsp;of $1.8-billion position is small. The largest mutual fund that invests in&nbsp;emerging markets is the Invesco Developing Markets Fund, which has an&nbsp;investment of $15 billion in China, covering China Concepts Stocks, Hong Kong Stocks&nbsp;and A shares. Therefore, Ark's investment in China is not trivial.</p><p><blockquote>作为一只投资中国股票不够活跃的基金，18亿美元的持仓规模很难说小。投资新兴市场的最大共同基金是景顺发展中市场基金，该基金在中国的投资额为150亿美元，涵盖中概股、港股和A股。因此，方舟在中国的投资并非微不足道。</blockquote></p><p> The Ark Funds&nbsp;claims to be technology-based, but it seems that the Funds does not fully trust&nbsp;China's technology. By analyzing its holdings on Chinese stocks, the most positions&nbsp;held by the Ark Funds now are stocks of e-commerce which owns vast purchasing&nbsp;power, rather than those of technology companies. Cathie Wood, an American&nbsp;investor as well as the CEO &amp; CIO of Ark Invest, once praised Baidu's&nbsp;driverless technology on TV, while their position in Baidu’s stock is not so&nbsp;large. Then, here comes the new energy vehicles of China. The investment target&nbsp;of the Ark Funds is not the Chinese EV trio including <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">Li Auto</a>, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">NIO Inc.</a> and&nbsp;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">XPeng Inc.</a>, but NIU Technologies. The electric vehicles produced by <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIU\">Niu Technologies</a> are good sellers in New York, while another three makers have not&nbsp;yet expanded into the United States. Once again, it reflects Cathie Wood's&nbsp;skeptical attitude towards China's \"technology\".</p><p><blockquote>方舟基金号称以技术为本，但似乎该基金并不完全信任中国的技术。通过分析其持有的中国股票，方舟基金目前持有的最多头寸是拥有巨大购买力的电子商务股票，而不是科技公司的股票。美国投资者、Ark Invest首席执行官兼首席信息官Cathie Wood曾在电视上称赞百度的无人驾驶技术，而他们在百度股票中的持仓并没有那么大。然后，中国的新能源汽车来了。方舟基金的投资目标不是中国电动汽车三巨头，包括<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">理想汽车</a>,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">蔚来</a>和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">小鹏汽车</a>，但是小牛电动。生产的电动汽车<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIU\">小牛电动</a>在纽约卖得很好，而另外三家制造商尚未扩展到美国。再次反映了凯西·伍德对中国“技术”的怀疑态度。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Let’s look into&nbsp;the lightening of the Ark Funds</b></p><p><blockquote><b>让我们来看看方舟基金的减仓情况</b></blockquote></p><p> 10 stocks are&nbsp;chosen to analyze their share changes. 5 stocks with the largest positions on&nbsp;July 1 (JD, TCEHY, BEKE, PDD, and BIDU) are shown in Figure 1, totaling $1.5&nbsp;billion, accounting for about 80%.&nbsp;Another 5 stocks are BABA, NIU, HUYA,&nbsp;BYDDY, and BZ, totaling $300 million, accounting for about 20% (Figure 2). Key&nbsp;dates are marked below.</p><p><blockquote>选择10只股票分析其份额变化。7月1日持仓最多的5只股票（京东、TCEHY、BEKE、PDD、百度）如图1所示，合计15亿美元，占比约80%，另外5只股票分别是阿里巴巴、牛、虎牙、比亚迪、BZ，合计3亿美元，占比约20%（图2）。关键日期标记如下。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/41b4d86b2c5953dc32e4a31fb13ee410\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"269\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Figure 1</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图1</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/09631c97e67c3aa9711d607bca310526\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"252\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Figure 2</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图2</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The Ark Funds cleared&nbsp;all its positions in HUYA on July 13 and 14 (marked in the Figure above). The&nbsp;news of the failed merger between Huya and DouYu was announced on July 12, but the&nbsp;Ark Funds did not substantially lighten up its position on the day, and&nbsp;continued the pace in the past few days.&nbsp;</p><p><blockquote>方舟基金在7月13日和14日清仓了虎牙的所有头寸（如上图所示）。虎牙与斗鱼合并失败的消息于7月12日公布，但方舟基金当天并未大幅减仓，延续了前几日的节奏。</blockquote></p><p> Another marked&nbsp;date is July 26 (Figure 1). The Chinese education stocks plummeted over 50% on&nbsp;Friday, July 23. On that day, few people realized that a chain reaction had&nbsp;occurred, and Chinese stocks listed in Hong Kong would slump in the following&nbsp;week. The Ark Funds failed to realize it, either. On July 26, the Ark Funds had&nbsp;to lighten up its positions. The top 5 largest positions were all reduced by&nbsp;Ark, with Ke Holdings standing in the breach. This reflects Cathie Wood's&nbsp;suspicion of high-growth companies in China.</p><p><blockquote>另一个标记的日期是7月26日（图1）。7月23日星期五，中国教育股暴跌超过50%。那一天，很少有人意识到发生了连锁反应，在香港上市的中资股将在接下来的一周暴跌。方舟基金也没有意识到这一点。7月26日，方舟基金不得不减仓。前5大持仓均被Ark减持，贝壳控股站在缺口处。这反映了Cathie Wood对中国高增长公司的怀疑。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> The third marked&nbsp;date is July 28, as shown in Figure 2. In this round of turmoil, the Ark Funds&nbsp;only lightened up its positions in the stocks of BOSS Zhipin&nbsp;(<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BZ\">Kanzhun Limited</a>), which is also a&nbsp;company with a relatively small market value. Meanwhile, Cathie Wood is still&nbsp;very insistent on the investments in NIU Technologies.</p><p><blockquote>第三个标记日期是7月28日，如图2所示。在此轮动荡中，方舟基金仅减仓了BOSS直聘的股票（<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BZ\">看准有限公司</a>），这也是一家市值比较小的公司。与此同时，凯西·伍德仍然非常坚持在小牛电动的投资。</blockquote></p><p> In the past&nbsp;week, the prices of China Concepts Stocks still hovered at a low level, but the&nbsp;Ark Funds no longer lightened up their positions. At present, there are only 7&nbsp;stocks left. Based on the closing price last Friday, the position is $450&nbsp;million, which is a 75% decrease compared to that of July 1.</p><p><blockquote>过去一周，中概股价格仍在低位徘徊，但方舟基金不再减仓。目前只剩下7只股票。以上周五收盘价计算，持仓为4.5亿美元，与7月1日相比减少了75%。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The Ark Funds' Actions to Lighten up China Concepts Stocks<blockquote>方舟基金减仓中概股的动作</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe Ark Funds' Actions to Lighten up China Concepts Stocks<blockquote>方舟基金减仓中概股的动作</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-08-11 12:05</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Pre-market overview</b></p><p><blockquote><b>上市前概述</b></blockquote></p><p> U.S.&nbsp;stocks fell in the pre-market trading, and the&nbsp;U.S.&nbsp;10-Year&nbsp;Government&nbsp;Bond Yields dropped again in Asias&nbsp;hours, pulling down the prices of commodities with crude oil falling up to 5%.&nbsp;China Concepts Stocks rose slightly in the pre-market trading.</p><p><blockquote>美股盘前下跌，美国10年期国债收益率在亚洲时段再度走低，拖累大宗商品价格，原油跌幅最高达5%，中概股盘前小幅上涨。</blockquote></p><p> In the&nbsp;secondary market, there are two types of US funds willing to make investments&nbsp;in China. Thereinto, one of them has liquidated or been gradually liquidating&nbsp;their holdings. According to the daily operations of the Ark Funds, it has been&nbsp;reducing its positions in China Concepts Stocks including Tencent, and has&nbsp;never increased its positions, although the afore-mentioned stocks have&nbsp;rebounded to some extent recently. A more pleasing signal appeared lately is&nbsp;that the Ark Funds has stopped lightening up Chinese stocks.</p><p><blockquote>在二级市场上，有两类美国基金愿意在中国进行投资。其中，其中一家公司已经清算或正在逐步清算其持有的股份。根据方舟基金的日常操作，其一直在减仓包括腾讯控股在内的中概股，从未加仓，尽管前述股票近期出现了一定反弹。最近出现的一个更令人高兴的信号是，方舟基金已经停止减仓中国股票。</blockquote></p><p> On July 1st, a&nbsp;total of 10 Chinese stocks listed in the U.S. are covered by the Ark Funds, including&nbsp;8 China Concept Stocks and 2 Hong Kong stocks traded in U.S. over-the-counter (OTC).&nbsp;Based on the closing price of the day, these 10 stocks totaled $1.8 billion, as&nbsp;shown in the following figure.</p><p><blockquote>7月1日，方舟基金共覆盖了10只在美上市的中概股，其中包括8只在美国场外交易（OTC）交易的中概股和2只港股，以当日收盘价计算，这10只股票合计吸金18亿美元，如下图所示。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5be54c5dfdf52cd1c4ea28364f2dc37a\" tg-width=\"622\" tg-height=\"320\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <b>About Its Positions</b></p><p><blockquote><b>关于其立场</b></blockquote></p><p> As a fund that&nbsp;is not active enough to invest in Chinese stocks, it is hard to say that the size&nbsp;of $1.8-billion position is small. The largest mutual fund that invests in&nbsp;emerging markets is the Invesco Developing Markets Fund, which has an&nbsp;investment of $15 billion in China, covering China Concepts Stocks, Hong Kong Stocks&nbsp;and A shares. Therefore, Ark's investment in China is not trivial.</p><p><blockquote>作为一只投资中国股票不够活跃的基金，18亿美元的持仓规模很难说小。投资新兴市场的最大共同基金是景顺发展中市场基金，该基金在中国的投资额为150亿美元，涵盖中概股、港股和A股。因此，方舟在中国的投资并非微不足道。</blockquote></p><p> The Ark Funds&nbsp;claims to be technology-based, but it seems that the Funds does not fully trust&nbsp;China's technology. By analyzing its holdings on Chinese stocks, the most positions&nbsp;held by the Ark Funds now are stocks of e-commerce which owns vast purchasing&nbsp;power, rather than those of technology companies. Cathie Wood, an American&nbsp;investor as well as the CEO &amp; CIO of Ark Invest, once praised Baidu's&nbsp;driverless technology on TV, while their position in Baidu’s stock is not so&nbsp;large. Then, here comes the new energy vehicles of China. The investment target&nbsp;of the Ark Funds is not the Chinese EV trio including <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">Li Auto</a>, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">NIO Inc.</a> and&nbsp;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">XPeng Inc.</a>, but NIU Technologies. The electric vehicles produced by <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIU\">Niu Technologies</a> are good sellers in New York, while another three makers have not&nbsp;yet expanded into the United States. Once again, it reflects Cathie Wood's&nbsp;skeptical attitude towards China's \"technology\".</p><p><blockquote>方舟基金号称以技术为本，但似乎该基金并不完全信任中国的技术。通过分析其持有的中国股票，方舟基金目前持有的最多头寸是拥有巨大购买力的电子商务股票，而不是科技公司的股票。美国投资者、Ark Invest首席执行官兼首席信息官Cathie Wood曾在电视上称赞百度的无人驾驶技术，而他们在百度股票中的持仓并没有那么大。然后，中国的新能源汽车来了。方舟基金的投资目标不是中国电动汽车三巨头，包括<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">理想汽车</a>,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">蔚来</a>和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">小鹏汽车</a>，但是小牛电动。生产的电动汽车<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIU\">小牛电动</a>在纽约卖得很好，而另外三家制造商尚未扩展到美国。再次反映了凯西·伍德对中国“技术”的怀疑态度。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Let’s look into&nbsp;the lightening of the Ark Funds</b></p><p><blockquote><b>让我们来看看方舟基金的减仓情况</b></blockquote></p><p> 10 stocks are&nbsp;chosen to analyze their share changes. 5 stocks with the largest positions on&nbsp;July 1 (JD, TCEHY, BEKE, PDD, and BIDU) are shown in Figure 1, totaling $1.5&nbsp;billion, accounting for about 80%.&nbsp;Another 5 stocks are BABA, NIU, HUYA,&nbsp;BYDDY, and BZ, totaling $300 million, accounting for about 20% (Figure 2). Key&nbsp;dates are marked below.</p><p><blockquote>选择10只股票分析其份额变化。7月1日持仓最多的5只股票（京东、TCEHY、BEKE、PDD、百度）如图1所示，合计15亿美元，占比约80%，另外5只股票分别是阿里巴巴、牛、虎牙、比亚迪、BZ，合计3亿美元，占比约20%（图2）。关键日期标记如下。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/41b4d86b2c5953dc32e4a31fb13ee410\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"269\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Figure 1</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图1</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/09631c97e67c3aa9711d607bca310526\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"252\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Figure 2</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图2</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The Ark Funds cleared&nbsp;all its positions in HUYA on July 13 and 14 (marked in the Figure above). The&nbsp;news of the failed merger between Huya and DouYu was announced on July 12, but the&nbsp;Ark Funds did not substantially lighten up its position on the day, and&nbsp;continued the pace in the past few days.&nbsp;</p><p><blockquote>方舟基金在7月13日和14日清仓了虎牙的所有头寸（如上图所示）。虎牙与斗鱼合并失败的消息于7月12日公布，但方舟基金当天并未大幅减仓，延续了前几日的节奏。</blockquote></p><p> Another marked&nbsp;date is July 26 (Figure 1). The Chinese education stocks plummeted over 50% on&nbsp;Friday, July 23. On that day, few people realized that a chain reaction had&nbsp;occurred, and Chinese stocks listed in Hong Kong would slump in the following&nbsp;week. The Ark Funds failed to realize it, either. On July 26, the Ark Funds had&nbsp;to lighten up its positions. The top 5 largest positions were all reduced by&nbsp;Ark, with Ke Holdings standing in the breach. This reflects Cathie Wood's&nbsp;suspicion of high-growth companies in China.</p><p><blockquote>另一个标记的日期是7月26日（图1）。7月23日星期五，中国教育股暴跌超过50%。那一天，很少有人意识到发生了连锁反应，在香港上市的中资股将在接下来的一周暴跌。方舟基金也没有意识到这一点。7月26日，方舟基金不得不减仓。前5大持仓均被Ark减持，贝壳控股站在缺口处。这反映了Cathie Wood对中国高增长公司的怀疑。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> The third marked&nbsp;date is July 28, as shown in Figure 2. In this round of turmoil, the Ark Funds&nbsp;only lightened up its positions in the stocks of BOSS Zhipin&nbsp;(<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BZ\">Kanzhun Limited</a>), which is also a&nbsp;company with a relatively small market value. Meanwhile, Cathie Wood is still&nbsp;very insistent on the investments in NIU Technologies.</p><p><blockquote>第三个标记日期是7月28日，如图2所示。在此轮动荡中，方舟基金仅减仓了BOSS直聘的股票（<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BZ\">看准有限公司</a>），这也是一家市值比较小的公司。与此同时，凯西·伍德仍然非常坚持在小牛电动的投资。</blockquote></p><p> In the past&nbsp;week, the prices of China Concepts Stocks still hovered at a low level, but the&nbsp;Ark Funds no longer lightened up their positions. At present, there are only 7&nbsp;stocks left. Based on the closing price last Friday, the position is $450&nbsp;million, which is a 75% decrease compared to that of July 1.</p><p><blockquote>过去一周，中概股价格仍在低位徘徊，但方舟基金不再减仓。目前只剩下7只股票。以上周五收盘价计算，持仓为4.5亿美元，与7月1日相比减少了75%。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"XPEV":"小鹏汽车","LI":"理想汽车","NIU":"小牛电动","BZ":"BOSS直聘","NIO":"蔚来"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1163924715","content_text":"Pre-market overview\nU.S. stocks fell in the pre-market trading, and the U.S. 10-Year Government Bond Yields dropped again in Asias hours, pulling down the prices of commodities with crude oil falling up to 5%. China Concepts Stocks rose slightly in the pre-market trading.\nIn the secondary market, there are two types of US funds willing to make investments in China. Thereinto, one of them has liquidated or been gradually liquidating their holdings. According to the daily operations of the Ark Funds, it has been reducing its positions in China Concepts Stocks including Tencent, and has never increased its positions, although the afore-mentioned stocks have rebounded to some extent recently. A more pleasing signal appeared lately is that the Ark Funds has stopped lightening up Chinese stocks.\nOn July 1st, a total of 10 Chinese stocks listed in the U.S. are covered by the Ark Funds, including 8 China Concept Stocks and 2 Hong Kong stocks traded in U.S. over-the-counter (OTC). Based on the closing price of the day, these 10 stocks totaled $1.8 billion, as shown in the following figure.\n\nAbout Its Positions\nAs a fund that is not active enough to invest in Chinese stocks, it is hard to say that the size of $1.8-billion position is small. The largest mutual fund that invests in emerging markets is the Invesco Developing Markets Fund, which has an investment of $15 billion in China, covering China Concepts Stocks, Hong Kong Stocks and A shares. Therefore, Ark's investment in China is not trivial.\nThe Ark Funds claims to be technology-based, but it seems that the Funds does not fully trust China's technology. By analyzing its holdings on Chinese stocks, the most positions held by the Ark Funds now are stocks of e-commerce which owns vast purchasing power, rather than those of technology companies. Cathie Wood, an American investor as well as the CEO & CIO of Ark Invest, once praised Baidu's driverless technology on TV, while their position in Baidu’s stock is not so large. Then, here comes the new energy vehicles of China. The investment target of the Ark Funds is not the Chinese EV trio including Li Auto, NIO Inc. and XPeng Inc., but NIU Technologies. The electric vehicles produced by Niu Technologies are good sellers in New York, while another three makers have not yet expanded into the United States. Once again, it reflects Cathie Wood's skeptical attitude towards China's \"technology\".\nLet’s look into the lightening of the Ark Funds\n10 stocks are chosen to analyze their share changes. 5 stocks with the largest positions on July 1 (JD, TCEHY, BEKE, PDD, and BIDU) are shown in Figure 1, totaling $1.5 billion, accounting for about 80%. Another 5 stocks are BABA, NIU, HUYA, BYDDY, and BZ, totaling $300 million, accounting for about 20% (Figure 2). Key dates are marked below.\nFigure 1\nFigure 2\nThe Ark Funds cleared all its positions in HUYA on July 13 and 14 (marked in the Figure above). The news of the failed merger between Huya and DouYu was announced on July 12, but the Ark Funds did not substantially lighten up its position on the day, and continued the pace in the past few days. \nAnother marked date is July 26 (Figure 1). The Chinese education stocks plummeted over 50% on Friday, July 23. On that day, few people realized that a chain reaction had occurred, and Chinese stocks listed in Hong Kong would slump in the following week. The Ark Funds failed to realize it, either. On July 26, the Ark Funds had to lighten up its positions. The top 5 largest positions were all reduced by Ark, with Ke Holdings standing in the breach. This reflects Cathie Wood's suspicion of high-growth companies in China.\nThe third marked date is July 28, as shown in Figure 2. In this round of turmoil, the Ark Funds only lightened up its positions in the stocks of BOSS Zhipin (Kanzhun Limited), which is also a company with a relatively small market value. Meanwhile, Cathie Wood is still very insistent on the investments in NIU Technologies.\nIn the past week, the prices of China Concepts Stocks still hovered at a low level, but the Ark Funds no longer lightened up their positions. At present, there are only 7 stocks left. Based on the closing price last Friday, the position is $450 million, which is a 75% decrease compared to that of July 1.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"XPEV":0.9,"BZ":0.9,"NIO":0.9,"NIU":0.9,"LI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2903,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":896964897,"gmtCreate":1628552528219,"gmtModify":1633746296624,"author":{"id":"3580280937765956","authorId":"3580280937765956","name":"ShuJie","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fab78f17f563d835249358a8d127785c","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3580280937765956","idStr":"3580280937765956"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Maybe that’s the reason for the surge in Golden Nuggets 50+%! Hohoho","listText":"Maybe that’s the reason for the surge in Golden Nuggets 50+%! Hohoho","text":"Maybe that’s the reason for the surge in Golden Nuggets 50+%! Hohoho","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/896964897","repostId":"2158246446","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1541,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":890707708,"gmtCreate":1628131858504,"gmtModify":1633753271199,"author":{"id":"3580280937765956","authorId":"3580280937765956","name":"ShuJie","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fab78f17f563d835249358a8d127785c","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3580280937765956","idStr":"3580280937765956"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Wow!!!","listText":"Wow!!!","text":"Wow!!!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/890707708","repostId":"2157481973","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1381,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":147096181,"gmtCreate":1626318101743,"gmtModify":1633927906524,"author":{"id":"3580280937765956","authorId":"3580280937765956","name":"ShuJie","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fab78f17f563d835249358a8d127785c","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3580280937765956","idStr":"3580280937765956"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Wow good","listText":"Wow good","text":"Wow good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/147096181","repostId":"1122758076","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1122758076","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1626316880,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1122758076?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-15 10:41","market":"fut","language":"en","title":"Goldman Sees Oil Price Spiking On UAE/OPEC+ Deal<blockquote>高盛预计阿联酋/OPEC+协议导致油价飙升</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1122758076","media":"zerohedge","summary":"Oil suffered its biggest drop in 2.5 months today after the EIA reported that in the latest week, ga","content":"<p>Oil suffered its biggest drop in 2.5 months today after the EIA reported that in the latest week, gasoline demand in the US unexpectedly tumbled by 760,000 barrels a day from the record 10 million barrels a day a week, to 9.28 million barrels a day to get back to levels in late June.</p><p><blockquote>EIA报告称，最近一周，美国汽油需求意外下降76万桶/日，从创纪录的每周1000万桶/日降至928万桶/日，油价今天遭遇2.5个月来最大跌幅。回到六月下旬的水平。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/96a51307958cb16bc6d3451c273dc614\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"662\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">While algos focused on the sharp drop, what they ignored was that the number was largely meaningless, since the reporting week included July 5, a day off for Americans. Additionally, the EIA’s estimate, known as product supplied, is derived from other data rather than being a direct measurement of consumption. Since that method often leads to erratic numbers, some observers prefer to use the 4-week rolling average. That measure was 9.485 million barrels a day, which was about equal to the same week in 2019</p><p><blockquote>虽然algos关注的是大幅下降，但他们忽略了这个数字在很大程度上毫无意义，因为报告周包括7月5日，这是美国人的休息日。此外，EIA的估计（称为产品供应量）来自其他数据，而不是直接衡量消费量。由于这种方法经常导致不稳定的数字，一些观察者更喜欢使用4周滚动平均值。该指标为948.5万桶/日，与2019年同周大致持平</blockquote></p><p> None of that mattered, however, as CTAs quickly joined in the selling frenzy and completely erasing the earlier jump on the far more important news of an OPEC+ deal.</p><p><blockquote>然而，这些都不重要，因为CTA很快加入了抛售狂潮，并完全抹去了早些时候因欧佩克+协议这一更重要的消息而出现的上涨。</blockquote></p><p> Just how important was the Reuters report that the UAE and Saudi Arabia are close to reaching a production agreement, one which sees both the higher baseline requested by the UAE (of 3.65 mb/d starting in April 2022) as well as an extension of the output agreement requested by Saudi (through December 2022). Important enough that in a note released late on Wednesday, Goldman said that the deal would remove the low-probability tail risks of potential price war, and \"<b>represents $2 to $4/bbl upside risk to our $80/bbl summer and $75/bbl 2022 Brent price forecasts.\"</b></p><p><blockquote>路透社报道阿联酋和沙特阿拉伯即将达成一项生产协议，这有多重要，该协议既包括阿联酋要求的更高基线（从2022年4月开始为3.65 mb/d），也包括延长产量沙特要求的产量协议（至2022年12月）。重要的是，高盛在周三晚些时候发布的一份报告中表示，该交易将消除潜在价格战的低概率尾部风险，并且“<b>我们夏季80美元/桶和2022年布伦特原油价格预测为75美元/桶，面临2至4美元/桶的上行风险。”</b></blockquote></p><p> In the note from Goldman commodity analysts Damien Courvalin and Jeff Currie, the two also write that the expected agreement “as the ﬁrst of likely four potential bullish supply catalysts over the coming month” that would more than offset higher North American production. Additionally, although some OPEC+ details remain uncertain, like August and September quotas or baselines of other countries, “these are of limited magnitude and importance to the global oil market outlook, which the bank continues to see as supportive of higher oil prices”</p><p><blockquote>高盛大宗商品分析师达米安·库尔瓦林(Damien Courvalin)和杰夫·柯里(Jeff Currie)在报告中还写道，预期的协议“是未来一个月四个潜在看涨供应催化剂中的第一个”，将足以抵消北美产量的增加。此外，尽管OPEC+的一些细节仍不确定，例如8月和9月的配额或其他国家的基线，但“这些对全球石油市场前景的规模和重要性有限，该行继续认为这支持油价上涨”</blockquote></p><p> Piling on the bullish cash, Courvalin writes that an OPEC+ deal that offers a higher baseline for the UAE, as well as an extension of output agreement through December 2022 - such as the one being contemplated -&nbsp; would be bullish relative to Goldman’s base case</p><p><blockquote>Courvalin写道，为阿联酋提供更高基线的OPEC+协议以及将产量协议延长至2022年12月（例如正在考虑的协议）相对于高盛的基本情况将是看涨的。</blockquote></p><p> And speaking of Goldman's forecasts, the bank had assumed a 500kb/d ramp-up starting in August as well as a gradually rising UAE baseline from 3.17m b/d to 3.3m b/d in August to 3.65m b/d by the end of 1Q 2022. As a result, such a deal would imply downside risk to its OPEC+ production forecast of 400k-600k b/d on average for 3Q 2021-1Q 2022, depending on whether the lack of August production hike is compensated for in September. Needless to say, that too is bullish for the price of oil... and yet one look at the collapse in oil prices today and one would be left shocked at just how dumb the algos have become.</p><p><blockquote>谈到高盛的预测，该行假设从8月份开始增产500kb/d，阿联酋的基线从8月份的317万b/d逐渐上升到330万b/d，到2022年第一季度末达到365万b/d。因此，这样的协议将意味着其2021年第三季度至2022年第一季度平均40万至60万桶/日的OPEC+产量预测面临下行风险，具体取决于8月份增产的不足是否在9月份得到弥补。不用说，这也对油价有利...然而，看看今天油价的暴跌，你会对算法变得多么愚蠢感到震惊。</blockquote></p><p> Finally, it's not just the UAE/OPEC+ deal that makes Goldman's commodities team hopeful - the bank’s other three potential bullish supply catalysts are listed as:-</p><p><blockquote>最后，不仅仅是阿联酋/OPEC+协议让高盛的大宗商品团队充满希望——该行的其他三个潜在看涨供应催化剂被列为：-</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Upcoming shale earnings season, which may reaffirm greater incentive toward returning cash to shareholders over production growth</li>  <li>That progress on the U.S. reaching an agreement with Iran has stalled, setting back the potential ramp up of exports</li>  <li>Bank’s view that consensus expectations for global production outside of North America and core-OPEC remain too optimistic</li> </ul> Below we excerpt from the full note:</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>即将到来的页岩油财报季，这可能会重申通过产量增长向股东返还现金的更大动力</li><li>美国与伊朗达成协议的进展停滞不前，阻碍了出口的潜在增长</li><li>银行认为，对北美和OPEC核心以外的全球产量的普遍预期仍然过于乐观</li></ul>下面我们摘录全文：</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <ul>  <li>The UAE and Saudi Arabia appear close to reaching a production agreement, with Reuters reporting progress towards a deal that would allow for both the higher baseline requested by the UAE (of 3.65 mb/d starting in April 2022) as well as an extension of the output agreement requested by Saudi (through December 2022).<b>We assume that the such a deal - if conﬁrmed - would likely come alongside a gradual 0.4 mb/d monthly ramp-up in production through December 2021, as all OPEC+ members had already supported this decision.</b></li>  <li>Such an agreement would help bridge the (modest) divide between both countries and<b>help remove the (low probability) OPEC+ tail risks of a potential price war or insufﬁcient production growth, as we expected.</b>While some details remain uncertain, like the August and September quotas or the baseline of other countries, these are of limited magnitude and importance to the global oil market outlook,<b>which we continue to see as supportive of higher oil prices.</b></li>  <li>Importantly,<b>such an OPEC+ agreement would be bullish relative to our base-case, as we had assumed (1) a 0.5 mb/d ramp-up starting in August as well as (2) a gradually rising UAE baseline from 3.17 mb/d to 3.3 mb/d in August to 3.65 mb/d by the end of 1Q22 (given its clear inequity).</b>As a result, a deal as described above would<b>imply downside risk to our OPEC+ production forecast of 0.4 to 0.6 mb/d on average for 3Q21-1Q22</b>(depending on whether the lack of August production hike is compensated for in September).</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/47c75c93814aad90865576eeb1666992\" tg-width=\"651\" tg-height=\"527\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><u><b>All else equal, this would represent $2 to $4/bbl upside risk to our $80/bbl summer and $75/bbl 2022 Brent price forecasts.</b></u>As a result,&nbsp;<b>we believe that risks to our bullish oil price forecasts are skewed to the upside, with the catalyst for such a move higher shifting from the demand to the supply side</b>. While our bullish view this year had been driven by our well above consensus demand growth forecast, this is no longer the case with (1) the sharp rebound in global oil demand that has taken place since May, from 95 to 98 mb/d currently and near our 99 mb/d end of summer forecast, mostly played out, with (2) the IEA expecting similar peak summer demand, and with (3) the EM vaccine led demand uplift set to only play out gradually through 1Q22.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>阿联酋和沙特阿拉伯似乎即将达成一项生产协议，路透社报道了一项协议的进展，该协议将允许阿联酋要求的更高基线（从2022年4月开始为365万桶/日）以及延长沙特要求的产量协议（至2022年12月）。<b>我们假设，这样的协议（如果得到确认）可能会伴随着到2021年12月每月产量逐步增加40万桶/日，因为所有OPEC+成员国都已经支持这一决定。</b></li><li>这样的协议将有助于弥合两国之间的（适度）分歧<b>正如我们预期的那样，有助于消除潜在价格战或产量增长不足的（低概率）OPEC+尾部风险。</b>虽然一些细节仍然不确定，如8月和9月的配额或其他国家的基准，但这些对全球石油市场前景的规模和重要性有限，<b>我们继续认为这支持油价上涨。</b></li><li>重要的是，<b>相对于我们的基本情况，这样的OPEC+协议将是看涨的，因为我们假设（1）从8月份开始增加0.5 mb/d，以及（2）阿联酋基线从3.17 mb/d逐渐上升到8月份的3.3 mb/d，到2022年第一季度结束时达到3.65 mb/d（鉴于其明显的不平等）。</b>因此，上述交易将<b>这意味着我们对2021年第三季度-2022年第一季度平均0.4至0.6 mb/d的OPEC+产量预测存在下行风险</b>（取决于8月份增产的不足是否在9月份得到弥补）。</li></ul><u><b>在其他条件相同的情况下，这将意味着我们夏季80美元/桶和2022年75美元/桶布伦特价格预测的2至4美元/桶的上行风险。</b></u>结果，<b>我们认为，我们看涨油价预测的风险偏向上行，这种上涨的催化剂从需求转向供应方面</b>.虽然我们今年的看涨观点是由我们远高于共识的需求增长预测推动的，但情况已不再如此，因为(1)自5月份以来全球石油需求大幅反弹，目前从95 MB/d反弹至98 mb/d目前接近我们夏末预测的99 mb/d，大部分已实现，(2)IEA预计夏季需求峰值类似，以及(3)新兴市场疫苗引领的需求提振只会通过2022年第一季度逐渐显现。</blockquote></p><p> A shift in market focus to the supply will make increasingly evident that the industry’s costs have reset sharply higher, due to (1) poor accumulated returns of the past 5 years, (2) the inﬂationary impact of internalizing carbon emissions and (3) the rising uncertainty and pessimism on long-term oil demand.&nbsp;<b>As a result, we initiate a new trade recommendation to be long Dec-22 Brent forwards, currently trading at $67.06/bbl. This entry point is below our Dec-22 spot forecast of $75/bbl due to backwardation and further offers a proxy trade for a re-setting higher of the oil market’s marginal costs.</b></p><p><blockquote>市场焦点向供应的转移将越来越明显地表明，由于（1）过去5年的累计回报不佳，（2）碳排放内部化的通货膨胀影响，以及（3）长期石油需求的不确定性和悲观情绪上升。<b>因此，我们提出新的交易建议，做多12月22日布伦特原油期货，目前交易价格为67.06美元/桶。由于现货溢价，这一进场点低于我们12月22日75美元/桶的现货预测，并进一步为重新设定更高的石油市场边际成本提供了代理交易。</b></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Goldman Sees Oil Price Spiking On UAE/OPEC+ Deal<blockquote>高盛预计阿联酋/OPEC+协议导致油价飙升</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nGoldman Sees Oil Price Spiking On UAE/OPEC+ Deal<blockquote>高盛预计阿联酋/OPEC+协议导致油价飙升</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">zerohedge</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-15 10:41</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Oil suffered its biggest drop in 2.5 months today after the EIA reported that in the latest week, gasoline demand in the US unexpectedly tumbled by 760,000 barrels a day from the record 10 million barrels a day a week, to 9.28 million barrels a day to get back to levels in late June.</p><p><blockquote>EIA报告称，最近一周，美国汽油需求意外下降76万桶/日，从创纪录的每周1000万桶/日降至928万桶/日，油价今天遭遇2.5个月来最大跌幅。回到六月下旬的水平。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/96a51307958cb16bc6d3451c273dc614\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"662\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">While algos focused on the sharp drop, what they ignored was that the number was largely meaningless, since the reporting week included July 5, a day off for Americans. Additionally, the EIA’s estimate, known as product supplied, is derived from other data rather than being a direct measurement of consumption. Since that method often leads to erratic numbers, some observers prefer to use the 4-week rolling average. That measure was 9.485 million barrels a day, which was about equal to the same week in 2019</p><p><blockquote>虽然algos关注的是大幅下降，但他们忽略了这个数字在很大程度上毫无意义，因为报告周包括7月5日，这是美国人的休息日。此外，EIA的估计（称为产品供应量）来自其他数据，而不是直接衡量消费量。由于这种方法经常导致不稳定的数字，一些观察者更喜欢使用4周滚动平均值。该指标为948.5万桶/日，与2019年同周大致持平</blockquote></p><p> None of that mattered, however, as CTAs quickly joined in the selling frenzy and completely erasing the earlier jump on the far more important news of an OPEC+ deal.</p><p><blockquote>然而，这些都不重要，因为CTA很快加入了抛售狂潮，并完全抹去了早些时候因欧佩克+协议这一更重要的消息而出现的上涨。</blockquote></p><p> Just how important was the Reuters report that the UAE and Saudi Arabia are close to reaching a production agreement, one which sees both the higher baseline requested by the UAE (of 3.65 mb/d starting in April 2022) as well as an extension of the output agreement requested by Saudi (through December 2022). Important enough that in a note released late on Wednesday, Goldman said that the deal would remove the low-probability tail risks of potential price war, and \"<b>represents $2 to $4/bbl upside risk to our $80/bbl summer and $75/bbl 2022 Brent price forecasts.\"</b></p><p><blockquote>路透社报道阿联酋和沙特阿拉伯即将达成一项生产协议，这有多重要，该协议既包括阿联酋要求的更高基线（从2022年4月开始为3.65 mb/d），也包括延长产量沙特要求的产量协议（至2022年12月）。重要的是，高盛在周三晚些时候发布的一份报告中表示，该交易将消除潜在价格战的低概率尾部风险，并且“<b>我们夏季80美元/桶和2022年布伦特原油价格预测为75美元/桶，面临2至4美元/桶的上行风险。”</b></blockquote></p><p> In the note from Goldman commodity analysts Damien Courvalin and Jeff Currie, the two also write that the expected agreement “as the ﬁrst of likely four potential bullish supply catalysts over the coming month” that would more than offset higher North American production. Additionally, although some OPEC+ details remain uncertain, like August and September quotas or baselines of other countries, “these are of limited magnitude and importance to the global oil market outlook, which the bank continues to see as supportive of higher oil prices”</p><p><blockquote>高盛大宗商品分析师达米安·库尔瓦林(Damien Courvalin)和杰夫·柯里(Jeff Currie)在报告中还写道，预期的协议“是未来一个月四个潜在看涨供应催化剂中的第一个”，将足以抵消北美产量的增加。此外，尽管OPEC+的一些细节仍不确定，例如8月和9月的配额或其他国家的基线，但“这些对全球石油市场前景的规模和重要性有限，该行继续认为这支持油价上涨”</blockquote></p><p> Piling on the bullish cash, Courvalin writes that an OPEC+ deal that offers a higher baseline for the UAE, as well as an extension of output agreement through December 2022 - such as the one being contemplated -&nbsp; would be bullish relative to Goldman’s base case</p><p><blockquote>Courvalin写道，为阿联酋提供更高基线的OPEC+协议以及将产量协议延长至2022年12月（例如正在考虑的协议）相对于高盛的基本情况将是看涨的。</blockquote></p><p> And speaking of Goldman's forecasts, the bank had assumed a 500kb/d ramp-up starting in August as well as a gradually rising UAE baseline from 3.17m b/d to 3.3m b/d in August to 3.65m b/d by the end of 1Q 2022. As a result, such a deal would imply downside risk to its OPEC+ production forecast of 400k-600k b/d on average for 3Q 2021-1Q 2022, depending on whether the lack of August production hike is compensated for in September. Needless to say, that too is bullish for the price of oil... and yet one look at the collapse in oil prices today and one would be left shocked at just how dumb the algos have become.</p><p><blockquote>谈到高盛的预测，该行假设从8月份开始增产500kb/d，阿联酋的基线从8月份的317万b/d逐渐上升到330万b/d，到2022年第一季度末达到365万b/d。因此，这样的协议将意味着其2021年第三季度至2022年第一季度平均40万至60万桶/日的OPEC+产量预测面临下行风险，具体取决于8月份增产的不足是否在9月份得到弥补。不用说，这也对油价有利...然而，看看今天油价的暴跌，你会对算法变得多么愚蠢感到震惊。</blockquote></p><p> Finally, it's not just the UAE/OPEC+ deal that makes Goldman's commodities team hopeful - the bank’s other three potential bullish supply catalysts are listed as:-</p><p><blockquote>最后，不仅仅是阿联酋/OPEC+协议让高盛的大宗商品团队充满希望——该行的其他三个潜在看涨供应催化剂被列为：-</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Upcoming shale earnings season, which may reaffirm greater incentive toward returning cash to shareholders over production growth</li>  <li>That progress on the U.S. reaching an agreement with Iran has stalled, setting back the potential ramp up of exports</li>  <li>Bank’s view that consensus expectations for global production outside of North America and core-OPEC remain too optimistic</li> </ul> Below we excerpt from the full note:</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>即将到来的页岩油财报季，这可能会重申通过产量增长向股东返还现金的更大动力</li><li>美国与伊朗达成协议的进展停滞不前，阻碍了出口的潜在增长</li><li>银行认为，对北美和OPEC核心以外的全球产量的普遍预期仍然过于乐观</li></ul>下面我们摘录全文：</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <ul>  <li>The UAE and Saudi Arabia appear close to reaching a production agreement, with Reuters reporting progress towards a deal that would allow for both the higher baseline requested by the UAE (of 3.65 mb/d starting in April 2022) as well as an extension of the output agreement requested by Saudi (through December 2022).<b>We assume that the such a deal - if conﬁrmed - would likely come alongside a gradual 0.4 mb/d monthly ramp-up in production through December 2021, as all OPEC+ members had already supported this decision.</b></li>  <li>Such an agreement would help bridge the (modest) divide between both countries and<b>help remove the (low probability) OPEC+ tail risks of a potential price war or insufﬁcient production growth, as we expected.</b>While some details remain uncertain, like the August and September quotas or the baseline of other countries, these are of limited magnitude and importance to the global oil market outlook,<b>which we continue to see as supportive of higher oil prices.</b></li>  <li>Importantly,<b>such an OPEC+ agreement would be bullish relative to our base-case, as we had assumed (1) a 0.5 mb/d ramp-up starting in August as well as (2) a gradually rising UAE baseline from 3.17 mb/d to 3.3 mb/d in August to 3.65 mb/d by the end of 1Q22 (given its clear inequity).</b>As a result, a deal as described above would<b>imply downside risk to our OPEC+ production forecast of 0.4 to 0.6 mb/d on average for 3Q21-1Q22</b>(depending on whether the lack of August production hike is compensated for in September).</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/47c75c93814aad90865576eeb1666992\" tg-width=\"651\" tg-height=\"527\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><u><b>All else equal, this would represent $2 to $4/bbl upside risk to our $80/bbl summer and $75/bbl 2022 Brent price forecasts.</b></u>As a result,&nbsp;<b>we believe that risks to our bullish oil price forecasts are skewed to the upside, with the catalyst for such a move higher shifting from the demand to the supply side</b>. While our bullish view this year had been driven by our well above consensus demand growth forecast, this is no longer the case with (1) the sharp rebound in global oil demand that has taken place since May, from 95 to 98 mb/d currently and near our 99 mb/d end of summer forecast, mostly played out, with (2) the IEA expecting similar peak summer demand, and with (3) the EM vaccine led demand uplift set to only play out gradually through 1Q22.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>阿联酋和沙特阿拉伯似乎即将达成一项生产协议，路透社报道了一项协议的进展，该协议将允许阿联酋要求的更高基线（从2022年4月开始为365万桶/日）以及延长沙特要求的产量协议（至2022年12月）。<b>我们假设，这样的协议（如果得到确认）可能会伴随着到2021年12月每月产量逐步增加40万桶/日，因为所有OPEC+成员国都已经支持这一决定。</b></li><li>这样的协议将有助于弥合两国之间的（适度）分歧<b>正如我们预期的那样，有助于消除潜在价格战或产量增长不足的（低概率）OPEC+尾部风险。</b>虽然一些细节仍然不确定，如8月和9月的配额或其他国家的基准，但这些对全球石油市场前景的规模和重要性有限，<b>我们继续认为这支持油价上涨。</b></li><li>重要的是，<b>相对于我们的基本情况，这样的OPEC+协议将是看涨的，因为我们假设（1）从8月份开始增加0.5 mb/d，以及（2）阿联酋基线从3.17 mb/d逐渐上升到8月份的3.3 mb/d，到2022年第一季度结束时达到3.65 mb/d（鉴于其明显的不平等）。</b>因此，上述交易将<b>这意味着我们对2021年第三季度-2022年第一季度平均0.4至0.6 mb/d的OPEC+产量预测存在下行风险</b>（取决于8月份增产的不足是否在9月份得到弥补）。</li></ul><u><b>在其他条件相同的情况下，这将意味着我们夏季80美元/桶和2022年75美元/桶布伦特价格预测的2至4美元/桶的上行风险。</b></u>结果，<b>我们认为，我们看涨油价预测的风险偏向上行，这种上涨的催化剂从需求转向供应方面</b>.虽然我们今年的看涨观点是由我们远高于共识的需求增长预测推动的，但情况已不再如此，因为(1)自5月份以来全球石油需求大幅反弹，目前从95 MB/d反弹至98 mb/d目前接近我们夏末预测的99 mb/d，大部分已实现，(2)IEA预计夏季需求峰值类似，以及(3)新兴市场疫苗引领的需求提振只会通过2022年第一季度逐渐显现。</blockquote></p><p> A shift in market focus to the supply will make increasingly evident that the industry’s costs have reset sharply higher, due to (1) poor accumulated returns of the past 5 years, (2) the inﬂationary impact of internalizing carbon emissions and (3) the rising uncertainty and pessimism on long-term oil demand.&nbsp;<b>As a result, we initiate a new trade recommendation to be long Dec-22 Brent forwards, currently trading at $67.06/bbl. This entry point is below our Dec-22 spot forecast of $75/bbl due to backwardation and further offers a proxy trade for a re-setting higher of the oil market’s marginal costs.</b></p><p><blockquote>市场焦点向供应的转移将越来越明显地表明，由于（1）过去5年的累计回报不佳，（2）碳排放内部化的通货膨胀影响，以及（3）长期石油需求的不确定性和悲观情绪上升。<b>因此，我们提出新的交易建议，做多12月22日布伦特原油期货，目前交易价格为67.06美元/桶。由于现货溢价，这一进场点低于我们12月22日75美元/桶的现货预测，并进一步为重新设定更高的石油市场边际成本提供了代理交易。</b></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/goldman-sees-oil-price-spiking-uaeopec-deal\">zerohedge</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/goldman-sees-oil-price-spiking-uaeopec-deal","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1122758076","content_text":"Oil suffered its biggest drop in 2.5 months today after the EIA reported that in the latest week, gasoline demand in the US unexpectedly tumbled by 760,000 barrels a day from the record 10 million barrels a day a week, to 9.28 million barrels a day to get back to levels in late June.\nWhile algos focused on the sharp drop, what they ignored was that the number was largely meaningless, since the reporting week included July 5, a day off for Americans. Additionally, the EIA’s estimate, known as product supplied, is derived from other data rather than being a direct measurement of consumption. Since that method often leads to erratic numbers, some observers prefer to use the 4-week rolling average. That measure was 9.485 million barrels a day, which was about equal to the same week in 2019\nNone of that mattered, however, as CTAs quickly joined in the selling frenzy and completely erasing the earlier jump on the far more important news of an OPEC+ deal.\nJust how important was the Reuters report that the UAE and Saudi Arabia are close to reaching a production agreement, one which sees both the higher baseline requested by the UAE (of 3.65 mb/d starting in April 2022) as well as an extension of the output agreement requested by Saudi (through December 2022). Important enough that in a note released late on Wednesday, Goldman said that the deal would remove the low-probability tail risks of potential price war, and \"represents $2 to $4/bbl upside risk to our $80/bbl summer and $75/bbl 2022 Brent price forecasts.\"\nIn the note from Goldman commodity analysts Damien Courvalin and Jeff Currie, the two also write that the expected agreement “as the ﬁrst of likely four potential bullish supply catalysts over the coming month” that would more than offset higher North American production. Additionally, although some OPEC+ details remain uncertain, like August and September quotas or baselines of other countries, “these are of limited magnitude and importance to the global oil market outlook, which the bank continues to see as supportive of higher oil prices”\nPiling on the bullish cash, Courvalin writes that an OPEC+ deal that offers a higher baseline for the UAE, as well as an extension of output agreement through December 2022 - such as the one being contemplated -  would be bullish relative to Goldman’s base case\nAnd speaking of Goldman's forecasts, the bank had assumed a 500kb/d ramp-up starting in August as well as a gradually rising UAE baseline from 3.17m b/d to 3.3m b/d in August to 3.65m b/d by the end of 1Q 2022. As a result, such a deal would imply downside risk to its OPEC+ production forecast of 400k-600k b/d on average for 3Q 2021-1Q 2022, depending on whether the lack of August production hike is compensated for in September. Needless to say, that too is bullish for the price of oil... and yet one look at the collapse in oil prices today and one would be left shocked at just how dumb the algos have become.\nFinally, it's not just the UAE/OPEC+ deal that makes Goldman's commodities team hopeful - the bank’s other three potential bullish supply catalysts are listed as:-\n\nUpcoming shale earnings season, which may reaffirm greater incentive toward returning cash to shareholders over production growth\nThat progress on the U.S. reaching an agreement with Iran has stalled, setting back the potential ramp up of exports\nBank’s view that consensus expectations for global production outside of North America and core-OPEC remain too optimistic\n\nBelow we excerpt from the full note:\n\nThe UAE and Saudi Arabia appear close to reaching a production agreement, with Reuters reporting progress towards a deal that would allow for both the higher baseline requested by the UAE (of 3.65 mb/d starting in April 2022) as well as an extension of the output agreement requested by Saudi (through December 2022).We assume that the such a deal - if conﬁrmed - would likely come alongside a gradual 0.4 mb/d monthly ramp-up in production through December 2021, as all OPEC+ members had already supported this decision.\nSuch an agreement would help bridge the (modest) divide between both countries andhelp remove the (low probability) OPEC+ tail risks of a potential price war or insufﬁcient production growth, as we expected.While some details remain uncertain, like the August and September quotas or the baseline of other countries, these are of limited magnitude and importance to the global oil market outlook,which we continue to see as supportive of higher oil prices.\nImportantly,such an OPEC+ agreement would be bullish relative to our base-case, as we had assumed (1) a 0.5 mb/d ramp-up starting in August as well as (2) a gradually rising UAE baseline from 3.17 mb/d to 3.3 mb/d in August to 3.65 mb/d by the end of 1Q22 (given its clear inequity).As a result, a deal as described above wouldimply downside risk to our OPEC+ production forecast of 0.4 to 0.6 mb/d on average for 3Q21-1Q22(depending on whether the lack of August production hike is compensated for in September).\n\nAll else equal, this would represent $2 to $4/bbl upside risk to our $80/bbl summer and $75/bbl 2022 Brent price forecasts.As a result, we believe that risks to our bullish oil price forecasts are skewed to the upside, with the catalyst for such a move higher shifting from the demand to the supply side. While our bullish view this year had been driven by our well above consensus demand growth forecast, this is no longer the case with (1) the sharp rebound in global oil demand that has taken place since May, from 95 to 98 mb/d currently and near our 99 mb/d end of summer forecast, mostly played out, with (2) the IEA expecting similar peak summer demand, and with (3) the EM vaccine led demand uplift set to only play out gradually through 1Q22.\nA shift in market focus to the supply will make increasingly evident that the industry’s costs have reset sharply higher, due to (1) poor accumulated returns of the past 5 years, (2) the inﬂationary impact of internalizing carbon emissions and (3) the rising uncertainty and pessimism on long-term oil demand. As a result, we initiate a new trade recommendation to be long Dec-22 Brent forwards, currently trading at $67.06/bbl. This entry point is below our Dec-22 spot forecast of $75/bbl due to backwardation and further offers a proxy trade for a re-setting higher of the oil market’s marginal costs.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"BZmain":0.9,"CLmain":0.9,"MCLmain":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1974,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":142858287,"gmtCreate":1626142388149,"gmtModify":1633929703112,"author":{"id":"3580280937765956","authorId":"3580280937765956","name":"ShuJie","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fab78f17f563d835249358a8d127785c","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3580280937765956","idStr":"3580280937765956"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/3577877222927887\">@HMian</a>:It’s low indeed","listText":"//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/3577877222927887\">@HMian</a>:It’s low indeed","text":"//@HMian:It’s low indeed","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/142858287","repostId":"2150326565","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2022,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":146839380,"gmtCreate":1626064583940,"gmtModify":1633930480271,"author":{"id":"3580280937765956","authorId":"3580280937765956","name":"ShuJie","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fab78f17f563d835249358a8d127785c","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3580280937765956","idStr":"3580280937765956"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Okay","listText":"Okay","text":"Okay","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/146839380","repostId":"1114863871","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2073,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":143499748,"gmtCreate":1625806683984,"gmtModify":1633937113977,"author":{"id":"3580280937765956","authorId":"3580280937765956","name":"ShuJie","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fab78f17f563d835249358a8d127785c","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3580280937765956","idStr":"3580280937765956"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Sold haha","listText":"Sold haha","text":"Sold haha","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/143499748","repostId":"1192570348","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":698,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":154439086,"gmtCreate":1625537802645,"gmtModify":1633939859766,"author":{"id":"3580280937765956","authorId":"3580280937765956","name":"ShuJie","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fab78f17f563d835249358a8d127785c","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3580280937765956","idStr":"3580280937765956"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Wow I shall share&nbsp;with my friend","listText":"Wow I shall share&nbsp;with my friend","text":"Wow I shall share with my friend","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/154439086","repostId":"2149466331","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":698,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":156035931,"gmtCreate":1625185465223,"gmtModify":1633942813674,"author":{"id":"3580280937765956","authorId":"3580280937765956","name":"ShuJie","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fab78f17f563d835249358a8d127785c","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3580280937765956","idStr":"3580280937765956"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok put to watchlist&nbsp;","listText":"Ok put to watchlist&nbsp;","text":"Ok put to watchlist","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/156035931","repostId":"1121657128","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":783,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":151557720,"gmtCreate":1625099959360,"gmtModify":1633944848443,"author":{"id":"3580280937765956","authorId":"3580280937765956","name":"ShuJie","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fab78f17f563d835249358a8d127785c","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3580280937765956","idStr":"3580280937765956"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Meme stocks","listText":"Meme stocks","text":"Meme stocks","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/151557720","repostId":"2148112845","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":669,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":153129755,"gmtCreate":1625014268577,"gmtModify":1633945879015,"author":{"id":"3580280937765956","authorId":"3580280937765956","name":"ShuJie","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fab78f17f563d835249358a8d127785c","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3580280937765956","idStr":"3580280937765956"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Put in watching list! 😆","listText":"Put in watching list! 😆","text":"Put in watching list! 😆","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/153129755","repostId":"1174482700","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":763,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":150793821,"gmtCreate":1624926852463,"gmtModify":1633946961482,"author":{"id":"3580280937765956","authorId":"3580280937765956","name":"ShuJie","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fab78f17f563d835249358a8d127785c","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3580280937765956","idStr":"3580280937765956"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Follow&nbsp;","listText":"Follow&nbsp;","text":"Follow","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/150793821","repostId":"2147830104","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":738,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":127174978,"gmtCreate":1624841649994,"gmtModify":1633948177373,"author":{"id":"3580280937765956","authorId":"3580280937765956","name":"ShuJie","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fab78f17f563d835249358a8d127785c","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3580280937765956","idStr":"3580280937765956"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Have confidence! And make the stock goes up😎","listText":"Have confidence! And make the stock goes up😎","text":"Have confidence! And make the stock goes up😎","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/127174978","repostId":"2146007118","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":888,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":128862346,"gmtCreate":1624510503885,"gmtModify":1634005039080,"author":{"id":"3580280937765956","authorId":"3580280937765956","name":"ShuJie","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fab78f17f563d835249358a8d127785c","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3580280937765956","idStr":"3580280937765956"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Finally&nbsp;","listText":"Finally&nbsp;","text":"Finally","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/128862346","repostId":"2145156570","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":576,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":164151912,"gmtCreate":1624183743336,"gmtModify":1634009700165,"author":{"id":"3580280937765956","authorId":"3580280937765956","name":"ShuJie","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fab78f17f563d835249358a8d127785c","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3580280937765956","idStr":"3580280937765956"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Buy buy buy","listText":"Buy buy buy","text":"Buy buy buy","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/164151912","repostId":"1166679093","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1166679093","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624065234,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1166679093?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-19 09:13","market":"us","language":"en","title":"3 Meme Stocks Wall Street Predicts Will Plunge More Than 20%<blockquote>华尔街预测3只模因股将暴跌20%以上</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1166679093","media":"fool","summary":"Meme stocks have been all the rage so far this year. That's understandable, with several of them del","content":"<p>Meme stocks have been all the rage so far this year. That's understandable, with several of them delivering triple-digit and even four-digit percentage gains.</p><p><blockquote>今年到目前为止，模因股票风靡一时。这是可以理解的，其中一些公司实现了三位数甚至四位数的百分比增长。</blockquote></p><p> However, what goes up can come down. Analysts don't expect the online frenzy fueling the ginormous jumps for some of the most popular stocks will be sustainable. Here are three meme stocks that Wall Street thinks will plunge by more than 20% within the next 12 months.</p><p><blockquote>然而，上升的可以下降。分析师预计，推动一些最受欢迎股票大幅上涨的网络狂热不会持续下去。以下是华尔街认为未来12个月内将暴跌20%以上的三只模因股票。</blockquote></p><p> AMC Entertainment</p><p><blockquote>AMC院线</blockquote></p><p> <b>AMC Entertainment</b>(NYSE:AMC)ranks as the best-performing meme stock of all. Shares of the movie theater operator have skyrocketed close to 2,500% year to date.</p><p><blockquote><b>AMC院线</b>（纽约证券交易所股票代码：AMC）被评为所有模因股票中表现最好的。今年迄今为止，这家电影院运营商的股价已飙升近2,500%。</blockquote></p><p> The consensus among analysts, though, is that the stock could lose 90% of its current value. Even the most optimistic analyst surveyed by Refinitiv has a price target for AMC that's more than 70% below the current share price.</p><p><blockquote>不过，分析师的共识是，该股可能会损失当前价值的90%。即使是Refinitiv调查的最乐观的分析师对AMC的目标价也比当前股价低70%以上。</blockquote></p><p> But isn't AMC's business picking up? Yep. The easing of restrictions has enabled the company to reopen 99% of its U.S. theaters. AMC could benefit as seating capacity limitations imposed by state and local governments are raised. Thereleases of multiple movies this summerand later this year that are likely to be hits should also help.</p><p><blockquote>但AMC的业务不是在回暖吗？是的。限制的放松使该公司能够重新开放99%的美国影院。随着州和地方政府施加的座位容量限制的提高，AMC可能会受益。今年夏天和今年晚些时候上映的多部可能会大受欢迎的电影也应该会有所帮助。</blockquote></p><p> However, Wall Street clearly believes that AMC's share price has gotten way ahead of its business prospects. The stock is trading at nearly eight times higher than it was before the COVID-19 pandemic.</p><p><blockquote>然而，华尔街显然认为AMC的股价已经远远超出了其业务前景。该股目前的交易价格比COVID-19大流行之前高出近八倍。</blockquote></p><p> Clover Health Investments</p><p><blockquote>三叶草健康投资</blockquote></p><p> Only a few days ago, it looked like&nbsp;<b>Clover Health Investments</b>(NASDAQ:CLOV)might push AMC to the side as the hottest meme stock. Retail investors viewed Clover as a primeshort squeezecandidate.</p><p><blockquote>就在几天前，看起来<b>三叶草健康投资</b>（纳斯达克股票代码：CLOV）可能会将AMC推到最热门的模因股票旁边。散户投资者将Clover视为主要的空头挤压候选者。</blockquote></p><p> Since the beginning of June, shares of Clover Health have jumped more than 65%. Analysts, however, don't expect those gains to last. The average price target for the stock is 25% below the current share price.</p><p><blockquote>自6月初以来，Clover Health的股价已上涨超过65%。然而，分析师预计这些涨幅不会持续下去。该股的平均目标价比当前股价低25%。</blockquote></p><p> Clover Health's valuation does seem to have gotten out of hand. The healthcare stock currently trades at more than 170 times trailing-12-month sales. That's a nosebleed level, especially considering that the company is the subject of investigations by the U.S. Department of Justice and the Securities and Exchange Commission.</p><p><blockquote>Clover Health的估值似乎确实已经失控。该医疗保健股目前的交易价格是过去12个月销售额的170多倍。这是一个令人流鼻血的水平，特别是考虑到该公司是美国调查的对象。司法部和证券交易委员会。</blockquote></p><p> Still, Clover Health could deliver improving financial results this year. The company hopes to significantly increase its membership by targeting the original Medicare program. This represents a major new market opportunity in addition to its current Medicare Advantage business.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，Clover Health今年的财务业绩可能会有所改善。该公司希望通过瞄准原来的医疗保险计划来大幅增加其会员。除了当前的Medicare Advantage业务之外，这也是一个重大的新市场机会。</blockquote></p><p> Sundial Growers</p><p><blockquote>日晷种植者</blockquote></p><p> At one point earlier this year,&nbsp;<b>Sundial Growers</b>(NASDAQ:SNDL)appeared to be a legitimate contender to become the biggest winner among meme stocks. The Canadian marijuana stock vaulted more than 520% higher year to date before giving up much of its gains. However, Sundial's share price has still more than doubled in 2021.</p><p><blockquote>今年早些时候，<b>日晷种植者</b>（纳斯达克股票代码：SNDL）似乎是成为模因股票最大赢家的合法竞争者。加拿大大麻股票今年迄今已上涨超过520%，随后回吐了大部分涨幅。不过，Sundial的股价在2021年仍上涨了一倍多。</blockquote></p><p> Analysts anticipate that the pot stock could fall even further. The consensus price target for Sundial reflects a 23% discount to its current share price. One analyst even thinks the stock could sink 55%.</p><p><blockquote>分析师预计大麻库存可能会进一步下跌。Sundial的共识目标价较其当前股价有23%的折扣。一位分析师甚至认为该股可能下跌55%。</blockquote></p><p> There certainly are reasons to be pessimistic about Sundial's core cannabis business. The company's net cannabis revenue fell year over year in the first quarter of 2021. Although Sundial is taking steps that it hopes will turn things around, it remains to be seen if those efforts will succeed.</p><p><blockquote>当然有理由对Sundial的核心大麻业务持悲观态度。该公司2021年第一季度的大麻净收入同比下降。尽管日晷正在采取措施，希望能够扭转局面，但这些努力是否会成功还有待观察。</blockquote></p><p> Sundial's business deals could give investors reasons for optimism. After all, the company posted positive adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) in Q1 due to its investments.</p><p><blockquote>Sundial的商业交易可能会给投资者带来乐观的理由。毕竟，由于其投资，该公司第一季度调整后息税折旧摊销前利润(EBITDA)为正。</blockquote></p><p> However, the cash that Sundial is using to make these investments has come at the cost of increased dilution of its stock. The company can't afford any additional dilution without having to resort to desperate measures to keep its listing on the&nbsp;<b>Nasdaq</b>&nbsp;stock exchange.</p><p><blockquote>然而，Sundial用于进行这些投资的现金是以其股票进一步稀释为代价的。该公司无法承受任何额外的稀释，除非采取绝望的措施来维持其在<b>纳斯达克</b>证券交易所。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>3 Meme Stocks Wall Street Predicts Will Plunge More Than 20%<blockquote>华尔街预测3只模因股将暴跌20%以上</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n3 Meme Stocks Wall Street Predicts Will Plunge More Than 20%<blockquote>华尔街预测3只模因股将暴跌20%以上</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">fool</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-19 09:13</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Meme stocks have been all the rage so far this year. That's understandable, with several of them delivering triple-digit and even four-digit percentage gains.</p><p><blockquote>今年到目前为止，模因股票风靡一时。这是可以理解的，其中一些公司实现了三位数甚至四位数的百分比增长。</blockquote></p><p> However, what goes up can come down. Analysts don't expect the online frenzy fueling the ginormous jumps for some of the most popular stocks will be sustainable. Here are three meme stocks that Wall Street thinks will plunge by more than 20% within the next 12 months.</p><p><blockquote>然而，上升的可以下降。分析师预计，推动一些最受欢迎股票大幅上涨的网络狂热不会持续下去。以下是华尔街认为未来12个月内将暴跌20%以上的三只模因股票。</blockquote></p><p> AMC Entertainment</p><p><blockquote>AMC院线</blockquote></p><p> <b>AMC Entertainment</b>(NYSE:AMC)ranks as the best-performing meme stock of all. Shares of the movie theater operator have skyrocketed close to 2,500% year to date.</p><p><blockquote><b>AMC院线</b>（纽约证券交易所股票代码：AMC）被评为所有模因股票中表现最好的。今年迄今为止，这家电影院运营商的股价已飙升近2,500%。</blockquote></p><p> The consensus among analysts, though, is that the stock could lose 90% of its current value. Even the most optimistic analyst surveyed by Refinitiv has a price target for AMC that's more than 70% below the current share price.</p><p><blockquote>不过，分析师的共识是，该股可能会损失当前价值的90%。即使是Refinitiv调查的最乐观的分析师对AMC的目标价也比当前股价低70%以上。</blockquote></p><p> But isn't AMC's business picking up? Yep. The easing of restrictions has enabled the company to reopen 99% of its U.S. theaters. AMC could benefit as seating capacity limitations imposed by state and local governments are raised. Thereleases of multiple movies this summerand later this year that are likely to be hits should also help.</p><p><blockquote>但AMC的业务不是在回暖吗？是的。限制的放松使该公司能够重新开放99%的美国影院。随着州和地方政府施加的座位容量限制的提高，AMC可能会受益。今年夏天和今年晚些时候上映的多部可能会大受欢迎的电影也应该会有所帮助。</blockquote></p><p> However, Wall Street clearly believes that AMC's share price has gotten way ahead of its business prospects. The stock is trading at nearly eight times higher than it was before the COVID-19 pandemic.</p><p><blockquote>然而，华尔街显然认为AMC的股价已经远远超出了其业务前景。该股目前的交易价格比COVID-19大流行之前高出近八倍。</blockquote></p><p> Clover Health Investments</p><p><blockquote>三叶草健康投资</blockquote></p><p> Only a few days ago, it looked like&nbsp;<b>Clover Health Investments</b>(NASDAQ:CLOV)might push AMC to the side as the hottest meme stock. Retail investors viewed Clover as a primeshort squeezecandidate.</p><p><blockquote>就在几天前，看起来<b>三叶草健康投资</b>（纳斯达克股票代码：CLOV）可能会将AMC推到最热门的模因股票旁边。散户投资者将Clover视为主要的空头挤压候选者。</blockquote></p><p> Since the beginning of June, shares of Clover Health have jumped more than 65%. Analysts, however, don't expect those gains to last. The average price target for the stock is 25% below the current share price.</p><p><blockquote>自6月初以来，Clover Health的股价已上涨超过65%。然而，分析师预计这些涨幅不会持续下去。该股的平均目标价比当前股价低25%。</blockquote></p><p> Clover Health's valuation does seem to have gotten out of hand. The healthcare stock currently trades at more than 170 times trailing-12-month sales. That's a nosebleed level, especially considering that the company is the subject of investigations by the U.S. Department of Justice and the Securities and Exchange Commission.</p><p><blockquote>Clover Health的估值似乎确实已经失控。该医疗保健股目前的交易价格是过去12个月销售额的170多倍。这是一个令人流鼻血的水平，特别是考虑到该公司是美国调查的对象。司法部和证券交易委员会。</blockquote></p><p> Still, Clover Health could deliver improving financial results this year. The company hopes to significantly increase its membership by targeting the original Medicare program. This represents a major new market opportunity in addition to its current Medicare Advantage business.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，Clover Health今年的财务业绩可能会有所改善。该公司希望通过瞄准原来的医疗保险计划来大幅增加其会员。除了当前的Medicare Advantage业务之外，这也是一个重大的新市场机会。</blockquote></p><p> Sundial Growers</p><p><blockquote>日晷种植者</blockquote></p><p> At one point earlier this year,&nbsp;<b>Sundial Growers</b>(NASDAQ:SNDL)appeared to be a legitimate contender to become the biggest winner among meme stocks. The Canadian marijuana stock vaulted more than 520% higher year to date before giving up much of its gains. However, Sundial's share price has still more than doubled in 2021.</p><p><blockquote>今年早些时候，<b>日晷种植者</b>（纳斯达克股票代码：SNDL）似乎是成为模因股票最大赢家的合法竞争者。加拿大大麻股票今年迄今已上涨超过520%，随后回吐了大部分涨幅。不过，Sundial的股价在2021年仍上涨了一倍多。</blockquote></p><p> Analysts anticipate that the pot stock could fall even further. The consensus price target for Sundial reflects a 23% discount to its current share price. One analyst even thinks the stock could sink 55%.</p><p><blockquote>分析师预计大麻库存可能会进一步下跌。Sundial的共识目标价较其当前股价有23%的折扣。一位分析师甚至认为该股可能下跌55%。</blockquote></p><p> There certainly are reasons to be pessimistic about Sundial's core cannabis business. The company's net cannabis revenue fell year over year in the first quarter of 2021. Although Sundial is taking steps that it hopes will turn things around, it remains to be seen if those efforts will succeed.</p><p><blockquote>当然有理由对Sundial的核心大麻业务持悲观态度。该公司2021年第一季度的大麻净收入同比下降。尽管日晷正在采取措施，希望能够扭转局面，但这些努力是否会成功还有待观察。</blockquote></p><p> Sundial's business deals could give investors reasons for optimism. After all, the company posted positive adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) in Q1 due to its investments.</p><p><blockquote>Sundial的商业交易可能会给投资者带来乐观的理由。毕竟，由于其投资，该公司第一季度调整后息税折旧摊销前利润(EBITDA)为正。</blockquote></p><p> However, the cash that Sundial is using to make these investments has come at the cost of increased dilution of its stock. The company can't afford any additional dilution without having to resort to desperate measures to keep its listing on the&nbsp;<b>Nasdaq</b>&nbsp;stock exchange.</p><p><blockquote>然而，Sundial用于进行这些投资的现金是以其股票进一步稀释为代价的。该公司无法承受任何额外的稀释，除非采取绝望的措施来维持其在<b>纳斯达克</b>证券交易所。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/06/18/3-meme-stocks-wall-street-predicts-will-plunge-mor/\">fool</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"CLOV":"Clover Health Corp","SNDL":"SNDL Inc.","AMC":"AMC院线"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/06/18/3-meme-stocks-wall-street-predicts-will-plunge-mor/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1166679093","content_text":"Meme stocks have been all the rage so far this year. That's understandable, with several of them delivering triple-digit and even four-digit percentage gains.\nHowever, what goes up can come down. Analysts don't expect the online frenzy fueling the ginormous jumps for some of the most popular stocks will be sustainable. Here are three meme stocks that Wall Street thinks will plunge by more than 20% within the next 12 months.\nAMC Entertainment\nAMC Entertainment(NYSE:AMC)ranks as the best-performing meme stock of all. Shares of the movie theater operator have skyrocketed close to 2,500% year to date.\nThe consensus among analysts, though, is that the stock could lose 90% of its current value. Even the most optimistic analyst surveyed by Refinitiv has a price target for AMC that's more than 70% below the current share price.\nBut isn't AMC's business picking up? Yep. The easing of restrictions has enabled the company to reopen 99% of its U.S. theaters. AMC could benefit as seating capacity limitations imposed by state and local governments are raised. Thereleases of multiple movies this summerand later this year that are likely to be hits should also help.\nHowever, Wall Street clearly believes that AMC's share price has gotten way ahead of its business prospects. The stock is trading at nearly eight times higher than it was before the COVID-19 pandemic.\nClover Health Investments\nOnly a few days ago, it looked like Clover Health Investments(NASDAQ:CLOV)might push AMC to the side as the hottest meme stock. Retail investors viewed Clover as a primeshort squeezecandidate.\nSince the beginning of June, shares of Clover Health have jumped more than 65%. Analysts, however, don't expect those gains to last. The average price target for the stock is 25% below the current share price.\nClover Health's valuation does seem to have gotten out of hand. The healthcare stock currently trades at more than 170 times trailing-12-month sales. That's a nosebleed level, especially considering that the company is the subject of investigations by the U.S. Department of Justice and the Securities and Exchange Commission.\nStill, Clover Health could deliver improving financial results this year. The company hopes to significantly increase its membership by targeting the original Medicare program. This represents a major new market opportunity in addition to its current Medicare Advantage business.\nSundial Growers\nAt one point earlier this year, Sundial Growers(NASDAQ:SNDL)appeared to be a legitimate contender to become the biggest winner among meme stocks. The Canadian marijuana stock vaulted more than 520% higher year to date before giving up much of its gains. However, Sundial's share price has still more than doubled in 2021.\nAnalysts anticipate that the pot stock could fall even further. The consensus price target for Sundial reflects a 23% discount to its current share price. One analyst even thinks the stock could sink 55%.\nThere certainly are reasons to be pessimistic about Sundial's core cannabis business. The company's net cannabis revenue fell year over year in the first quarter of 2021. Although Sundial is taking steps that it hopes will turn things around, it remains to be seen if those efforts will succeed.\nSundial's business deals could give investors reasons for optimism. After all, the company posted positive adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) in Q1 due to its investments.\nHowever, the cash that Sundial is using to make these investments has come at the cost of increased dilution of its stock. The company can't afford any additional dilution without having to resort to desperate measures to keep its listing on the Nasdaq stock exchange.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"CLOV":0.9,"AMC":0.9,"SNDL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":660,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":168794099,"gmtCreate":1623983117511,"gmtModify":1634024738784,"author":{"id":"3580280937765956","authorId":"3580280937765956","name":"ShuJie","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fab78f17f563d835249358a8d127785c","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3580280937765956","idStr":"3580280937765956"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Cheaper stock to buy in comparison to Tesla&nbsp;","listText":"Cheaper stock to buy in comparison to Tesla&nbsp;","text":"Cheaper stock to buy in comparison to Tesla","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/168794099","repostId":"1148576248","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1148576248","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623979883,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1148576248?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-18 09:31","market":"us","language":"en","title":"NIO Is Winning<blockquote>蔚来正在获胜</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1148576248","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"NIO is #1 in China's electric SUV market for good reason.The company's success is driven by its brilliant innovations and marketing strategy.NIO is growing faster than Tesla, and yet, it is trading at a discount.NIO Inc.  stands out for its strong market position- #1 market share in electric SUV in China- and innovation in the rapidly growing and highly competitive electric vehicle industry. This article will discuss why NIO is winning against some stiff competition, including against Tesla .In ","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>NIO is #1 in China's electric SUV market for good reason.</li>  <li>The company's success is driven by its brilliant innovations and marketing strategy.</li>  <li>NIO is growing faster than Tesla, and yet, it is trading at a discount.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/790fae23b830463fec748d2deb2ce336\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>PonyWang/E+ via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>蔚来在中国电动SUV市场排名第一是有充分理由的。</li><li>该公司的成功是由其出色的创新和营销策略推动的。</li><li>蔚来的增长速度快于特斯拉，但它的交易价格却有折扣。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>PonyWang/E+来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> NIO Inc. (NYSE:NIO) stands out for its strong market position- #1 market share in electric SUV in China- and innovation in the rapidly growing and highly competitive electric vehicle industry. This article will discuss why NIO is winning against some stiff competition, including against Tesla (TSLA).</p><p><blockquote>蔚来（纽约证券交易所代码：蔚来）因其强大的市场地位——在中国电动SUV市场份额第一——以及在快速增长和竞争激烈的电动汽车行业的创新而脱颖而出。本文将讨论为什么蔚来在一些激烈的竞争中获胜，包括特斯拉(TSLA)。</blockquote></p><p> In addition, we will discuss NIO's business, financials, trading, valuation, and risks so readers could reach their own informed decision.</p><p><blockquote>此外，我们将讨论蔚来的业务、财务、交易、估值和风险，以便读者能够做出自己明智的决定。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Business: Why NIO Wins</b></p><p><blockquote><b>商业：蔚来为何获胜</b></blockquote></p><p> NIO positions itself in the premium SUV segment, focusing on smart EVs with a differentiated battery strategy.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来将自己定位于高端SUV领域，专注于智能电动汽车，采用差异化的电池策略。</blockquote></p><p> Delivered in March 2019, the company's first model, the ES8, is a luxury 7-seater SUV that is still the company's flagship product today. The ES8 is equipped with ADAS and AI system [NOMI] and is comparable to the BYD Song, Tesla Model X, the Audi Q7 45 e-Tron, etc.</p><p><blockquote>该公司的首款车型ES8于2019年3月交付，是一款豪华7座SUV，至今仍是该公司的旗舰产品。ES8配备ADAS和AI系统[NOMI]，可与比亚迪宋、特斯拉Model X、奥迪Q7 45 e-Tron等媲美。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/443e2773f70c00c6faac8ca063e978a5\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"387\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source: Company</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：公司</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Leveraging the installed base and customer goodwill due to the highly successful ES8, NIO successfully launched the ES6 and EC6.Recently, the company launched the ET7, its first sedan.</p><p><blockquote>凭借ES8大获成功带来的装机量和客户好感，蔚来成功推出了ES6和EC6。近日，该公司推出了首款轿车ET7。</blockquote></p><p> Today, NIO is the top-selling brand in China's all-electric SUV market in April with a 23% market share, higher than Tesla's 17%, WM Motor and XPeng Motors'(NYSE:XPEV)7%, according to China Automotive Technology and Research Center data.</p><p><blockquote>根据中国汽车技术研究中心的数据，如今，蔚来以23%的市场份额成为4月份中国全电动SUV市场最畅销的品牌，高于特斯拉的17%、威马汽车和小鹏汽车（纽约证券交易所代码：XPEV）的7%。</blockquote></p><p> One of the biggest competitive differentiators is NIO'sbattery strategy, which all but eliminates range anxiety, one of the biggest barriers to mass EV adoption. Not only could NIO cars be charged at any charging station for EVs, but the company also built hundreds of battery swapping stations in key cities in China, with plans to expanding to Europe.</p><p><blockquote>最大的竞争优势之一是蔚来的电池战略，该战略几乎消除了里程焦虑，而里程焦虑是电动汽车大规模采用的最大障碍之一。蔚来汽车不仅可以在任何电动汽车充电站充电，而且该公司还在国内主要城市建设了数百个电池交换站，并计划扩展到欧洲。</blockquote></p><p> NIO's battery swapping strategy also gives the company the ability to offer a battery-as-a-service [BaaS] solution, which reduces the upfrontcostof purchasing an NIO vehicle by ~$11,000. Since cost is another major barrier to mass EV adoption, NIO's battery strategy appears brilliant as it solves both the range and cost problems.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来的电池交换战略还使该公司能够提供电池即服务[BaaS]解决方案，从而将购买蔚来汽车的前期成本降低约11,000美元。由于成本是电动汽车大规模采用的另一个主要障碍，蔚来的电池战略似乎很出色，因为它解决了续航里程和成本问题。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5b25fbb85bffd39310cd27cbb2bde57a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"216\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source: Company</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：公司</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Another differentiator is the NIO brand, which management created brilliantly by introducing the EP9 in 2016. Six EP9s have been sold to NIO investors for 2.5 million pounds, creating an aura of exclusivity and quality around the brand. Next, NIO targeted the mass-market luxury SUV segment with the ES8, firmly establishing the company as a luxury car OEM.</p><p><blockquote>另一个差异化因素是蔚来品牌，管理层在2016年推出了EP9，从而出色地创造了该品牌。六辆EP9已以250万英镑的价格出售给蔚来投资者，为该品牌营造了一种独特和品质的氛围。接下来，蔚来凭借ES8瞄准了大众市场豪华SUV细分市场，牢牢确立了该公司作为豪华汽车OEM的地位。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ad41c960ce02f1e3f3e7575ac00beee0\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"350\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source: Company</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：公司</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Chinese companies must struggle against the common perception that they make low-quality products. This is the same perception issue that Japanese companies faced following their defeat after WW2. Japan solved this problem by moving up the value chain as their economy matured and creating high-quality brands such as Sony(NYSE:SONY). Today, Japan is known for its craftsmanship.</p><p><blockquote>中国企业必须与人们普遍认为他们生产的产品质量低的看法作斗争。这与日本公司在二战后战败后面临的认知问题相同。随着经济的成熟，日本通过向价值链上游移动并创建索尼（纽约证券交易所代码：SONY）等高质量品牌来解决这个问题。今天，日本以其工艺而闻名。</blockquote></p><p> China is following the same trajectory, and NIO is one of the emerging brands destroying the perception that \"made in China\" equates to poor quality. I strongly believe that investors who stubbornly hold on to that old perception will miss out on investing in some of the greatest brands the world will ever see.</p><p><blockquote>中国也在遵循同样的轨迹，蔚来是摧毁“中国制造”等同于劣质观念的新兴品牌之一。我坚信，顽固坚持这种旧观念的投资者将错过投资世界上一些最伟大品牌的机会。</blockquote></p><p> Buying an NIO car means much more than just getting a vehicle; it means getting into an exclusive club of services and convenience. Benefits include access to hundreds of swapping stations, lifetime free roadside rescue (including charge vans), lifetime free cellular connectivity, lifetime free warranty, and excellent customer service. This is a powerful selling point for NIO, differentiating it from Tesla, which hasrecentlydeveloped a poor reputation on the customer service front in China.</p><p><blockquote>购买蔚来汽车不仅仅意味着获得一辆车；这意味着进入一个服务和便利的专属俱乐部。好处包括使用数百个交换站、终身免费路边救援（包括充电车）、终身免费蜂窝连接、终身免费保修和卓越的客户服务。这是蔚来的一个强大卖点，使其有别于特斯拉，后者最近在中国的客户服务方面名声不佳。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a73482aa0431694b760ab5c2d0aa6f53\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"211\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source: Company</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：公司</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> The company is pushing the envelope even further with&nbsp;NIO House, a literal clubhouse for customers, and&nbsp;NIO Life, which includes NIO branded lifestyle products. NIO's effort to build a lifestyle around its cars seems to be&nbsp;working. This is good news for investors because the only way to escape the competitive battlefield of automobile OEM is to sell services and lifestyles to customers. This is why Ferrari's (RACE) operating margin is well over 20%, while Ford (F) and General Motors (GM) are in the single digits.</p><p><blockquote>该公司正在进一步挑战极限，推出了蔚来之家（London House）（一个真正的顾客俱乐部会所）和蔚来人寿（Kenneth Life），其中包括蔚来品牌的生活方式产品。蔚来围绕汽车打造生活方式的努力似乎正在发挥作用。这对投资者来说是个好消息，因为逃离汽车代工竞争战场的唯一方法就是向客户推销服务和生活方式。这就是为什么法拉利(RACE)的营业利润率远高于20%，而福特(F)和通用汽车(GM)则为个位数。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Financials &amp; Valuation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>财务与估值</b></blockquote></p><p> NIO is in hyper-growth mode. In 2020, the company generated $2.5 billion in revenue, up 126% y/y. In 2021, the company is expected to grow 117% y/y to $5.4 billion.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来正处于高速增长模式。2020年，该公司实现收入25亿美元，同比增长126%。2021年，该公司预计将同比增长117%，达到54亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> The company is not yet profitable but is expected to be by 2022. Gross margin only turned positive in 2020 and is expected to be 19.3% in 2021. EBITDA is expected to be negative $258 million in 2021 and a positive $206 million in 2022. Free cash flow is expected to be negative $42 million in 2021 before turning to a positive $354 million in 2022.</p><p><blockquote>该公司尚未盈利，但预计到2022年将实现盈利。毛利率仅在2020年转正，预计2021年为19.3%。预计2021年EBITDA为负2.58亿美元，2022年为正2.06亿美元。预计2021年自由现金流将为负4200万美元，然后在2022年转为正3.54亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> However, despite the cash burn expected in 2021, investors should feel at ease since the company exited&nbsp;2020&nbsp;with $5.9 billion of cash and cash equivalents. Including $600 million in short-term investments and subtracting ~$2.1 billion in debt and operating leases and the expected negative free cash flow in 2021, NIO should exit 2021 with over $4 billion in net cash and investments. That is plenty of buffers since NIO is expected to generate positive free cash flow in 2022.</p><p><blockquote>然而，尽管预计2021年将出现现金消耗，但投资者应该感到放心，因为该公司在2020年退出时拥有59亿美元的现金和现金等价物。包括6亿美元的短期投资，减去约21亿美元的债务和经营租赁以及2021年预期的负自由现金流，蔚来在2021年退出时应拥有超过40亿美元的净现金和投资。这是足够的缓冲，因为蔚来预计将在2022年产生正的自由现金流。</blockquote></p><p> Since NIO is not yet profitable, we will look at the forward EV/Sales multiple as is typical for hyper-growth companies not yet generating a profit. The company went public in September 2018, trading at around 7 to 8 times EV/Sales, before bottoming out at around 0.7 times sales in May 2019. The market, however, caught the EV fever in April 2020 and sent NIO's valuation soaring to a peak of 14.6x by January 2021. After the growth sell-off we recently experienced, NIO is currently sitting at a much more reasonable 8 times forward sales. This is a significant discount to TSLA's 10.2 times forward EV/Sales despite growing twice as fast (TSLA is expected to grow revenues by 57% in 2021 compared to NIO's 117%).</p><p><blockquote>由于蔚来尚未盈利，我们将关注预期EV/销售额倍数，这对于尚未盈利的高速增长公司来说是典型的。该公司于2018年9月上市，交易价格约为EV/销售额的7至8倍，随后于2019年5月触底，约为销售额的0.7倍。然而，市场在2020年4月掀起了电动汽车热潮，到2021年1月，蔚来的估值飙升至14.6倍的峰值。在我们最近经历的增长抛售之后，蔚来目前的预期销售额为8倍，这要合理得多。尽管TSLA的增长速度是其两倍，但这与TSLA 10.2倍的预期EV/销售额相比仍有很大折扣（预计TSLA 2021年收入将增长57%，而蔚来为117%）。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Risks</b></p><p><blockquote><b>风险</b></blockquote></p><p> There are many risks associated with owning NIO.</p><p><blockquote>拥有蔚来有很多风险。</blockquote></p><p> Although its battery swapping strategy is highly differentiated and seems to be growing rapidly, the jury is still out on the ultimate market share of battery swapping or fast-charging infrastructure. If fast charging technology continues to advance significantly, it will likely erode a key advantage of battery swapping: speed.</p><p><blockquote>尽管其换电战略高度差异化，且似乎增长迅速，但换电或快充基础设施的最终市场份额仍未定论。如果快速充电技术继续大幅进步，很可能会侵蚀电池交换的一个关键优势：速度。</blockquote></p><p> NIO's business model is innovative and new. Unfortunately, the flip side of that is that it is untested, and NIO remains unprofitable. For many investors, NIO will remain a \"show me\" story until the profitability of its business model improves.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来的商业模式是创新和新的。不幸的是，另一方面是它未经测试，蔚来仍然没有盈利。对于许多投资者来说，在其商业模式的盈利能力改善之前，蔚来仍将是一个“向我展示”的故事。</blockquote></p><p> NIO's ability to expand globally may be limited by the rising geopolitical tension between China and the US, and to a lesser extent, with Japan and Europe. The geopolitical situation remains highly opaque and uncertain, and is a risk factor for all auto OEMs.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来在全球扩张的能力可能会受到中美之间地缘政治紧张局势加剧的限制，在较小程度上也会受到与日欧之间地缘政治紧张局势的限制。地缘政治局势仍然高度不透明和不确定，是所有汽车原始设备制造商的风险因素。</blockquote></p><p> Auto OEMs are currently facing a severe chip&nbsp;shortage. In addition, the chip density in automobiles is increasing, making the OEMs increasingly reliant on semiconductor suppliers and foundries.</p><p><blockquote>汽车主机厂目前正面临严重的芯片短缺。此外，汽车中的芯片密度正在增加，使得原始设备制造商越来越依赖半导体供应商和代工厂。</blockquote></p><p> NIO's competitive advantages may not overcome the massive scale advantage of ICE OEMs and much bigger EV players like Tesla and China's BYD.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来的竞争优势可能无法克服内燃机原始设备制造商以及特斯拉和比亚迪等更大的电动汽车制造商的巨大规模优势。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Takeaway</b></p><p><blockquote><b>外卖</b></blockquote></p><p> NIO's technical and business model innovations make it a highly differentiated company in the exciting and rapidly growing EV market. The company is winning, and its competitive moat is getting bigger as its ecosystem of vehicles and services grows. Relative to the industry leader, Tesla, NIO's stock price seems like a bargain given its faster growth rate and lower multiples.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来的技术和商业模式创新使其在令人兴奋且快速增长的电动汽车市场中成为一家高度差异化的公司。该公司正在获胜，随着其车辆和服务生态系统的发展，其竞争护城河也越来越大。相对于行业领导者特斯拉，鉴于其更快的增长率和更低的市盈率，蔚来的股价似乎很便宜。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>NIO Is Winning<blockquote>蔚来正在获胜</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNIO Is Winning<blockquote>蔚来正在获胜</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-18 09:31</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>NIO is #1 in China's electric SUV market for good reason.</li>  <li>The company's success is driven by its brilliant innovations and marketing strategy.</li>  <li>NIO is growing faster than Tesla, and yet, it is trading at a discount.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/790fae23b830463fec748d2deb2ce336\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>PonyWang/E+ via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>蔚来在中国电动SUV市场排名第一是有充分理由的。</li><li>该公司的成功是由其出色的创新和营销策略推动的。</li><li>蔚来的增长速度快于特斯拉，但它的交易价格却有折扣。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>PonyWang/E+来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> NIO Inc. (NYSE:NIO) stands out for its strong market position- #1 market share in electric SUV in China- and innovation in the rapidly growing and highly competitive electric vehicle industry. This article will discuss why NIO is winning against some stiff competition, including against Tesla (TSLA).</p><p><blockquote>蔚来（纽约证券交易所代码：蔚来）因其强大的市场地位——在中国电动SUV市场份额第一——以及在快速增长和竞争激烈的电动汽车行业的创新而脱颖而出。本文将讨论为什么蔚来在一些激烈的竞争中获胜，包括特斯拉(TSLA)。</blockquote></p><p> In addition, we will discuss NIO's business, financials, trading, valuation, and risks so readers could reach their own informed decision.</p><p><blockquote>此外，我们将讨论蔚来的业务、财务、交易、估值和风险，以便读者能够做出自己明智的决定。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Business: Why NIO Wins</b></p><p><blockquote><b>商业：蔚来为何获胜</b></blockquote></p><p> NIO positions itself in the premium SUV segment, focusing on smart EVs with a differentiated battery strategy.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来将自己定位于高端SUV领域，专注于智能电动汽车，采用差异化的电池策略。</blockquote></p><p> Delivered in March 2019, the company's first model, the ES8, is a luxury 7-seater SUV that is still the company's flagship product today. The ES8 is equipped with ADAS and AI system [NOMI] and is comparable to the BYD Song, Tesla Model X, the Audi Q7 45 e-Tron, etc.</p><p><blockquote>该公司的首款车型ES8于2019年3月交付，是一款豪华7座SUV，至今仍是该公司的旗舰产品。ES8配备ADAS和AI系统[NOMI]，可与比亚迪宋、特斯拉Model X、奥迪Q7 45 e-Tron等媲美。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/443e2773f70c00c6faac8ca063e978a5\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"387\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source: Company</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：公司</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Leveraging the installed base and customer goodwill due to the highly successful ES8, NIO successfully launched the ES6 and EC6.Recently, the company launched the ET7, its first sedan.</p><p><blockquote>凭借ES8大获成功带来的装机量和客户好感，蔚来成功推出了ES6和EC6。近日，该公司推出了首款轿车ET7。</blockquote></p><p> Today, NIO is the top-selling brand in China's all-electric SUV market in April with a 23% market share, higher than Tesla's 17%, WM Motor and XPeng Motors'(NYSE:XPEV)7%, according to China Automotive Technology and Research Center data.</p><p><blockquote>根据中国汽车技术研究中心的数据，如今，蔚来以23%的市场份额成为4月份中国全电动SUV市场最畅销的品牌，高于特斯拉的17%、威马汽车和小鹏汽车（纽约证券交易所代码：XPEV）的7%。</blockquote></p><p> One of the biggest competitive differentiators is NIO'sbattery strategy, which all but eliminates range anxiety, one of the biggest barriers to mass EV adoption. Not only could NIO cars be charged at any charging station for EVs, but the company also built hundreds of battery swapping stations in key cities in China, with plans to expanding to Europe.</p><p><blockquote>最大的竞争优势之一是蔚来的电池战略，该战略几乎消除了里程焦虑，而里程焦虑是电动汽车大规模采用的最大障碍之一。蔚来汽车不仅可以在任何电动汽车充电站充电，而且该公司还在国内主要城市建设了数百个电池交换站，并计划扩展到欧洲。</blockquote></p><p> NIO's battery swapping strategy also gives the company the ability to offer a battery-as-a-service [BaaS] solution, which reduces the upfrontcostof purchasing an NIO vehicle by ~$11,000. Since cost is another major barrier to mass EV adoption, NIO's battery strategy appears brilliant as it solves both the range and cost problems.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来的电池交换战略还使该公司能够提供电池即服务[BaaS]解决方案，从而将购买蔚来汽车的前期成本降低约11,000美元。由于成本是电动汽车大规模采用的另一个主要障碍，蔚来的电池战略似乎很出色，因为它解决了续航里程和成本问题。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5b25fbb85bffd39310cd27cbb2bde57a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"216\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source: Company</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：公司</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Another differentiator is the NIO brand, which management created brilliantly by introducing the EP9 in 2016. Six EP9s have been sold to NIO investors for 2.5 million pounds, creating an aura of exclusivity and quality around the brand. Next, NIO targeted the mass-market luxury SUV segment with the ES8, firmly establishing the company as a luxury car OEM.</p><p><blockquote>另一个差异化因素是蔚来品牌，管理层在2016年推出了EP9，从而出色地创造了该品牌。六辆EP9已以250万英镑的价格出售给蔚来投资者，为该品牌营造了一种独特和品质的氛围。接下来，蔚来凭借ES8瞄准了大众市场豪华SUV细分市场，牢牢确立了该公司作为豪华汽车OEM的地位。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ad41c960ce02f1e3f3e7575ac00beee0\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"350\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source: Company</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：公司</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Chinese companies must struggle against the common perception that they make low-quality products. This is the same perception issue that Japanese companies faced following their defeat after WW2. Japan solved this problem by moving up the value chain as their economy matured and creating high-quality brands such as Sony(NYSE:SONY). Today, Japan is known for its craftsmanship.</p><p><blockquote>中国企业必须与人们普遍认为他们生产的产品质量低的看法作斗争。这与日本公司在二战后战败后面临的认知问题相同。随着经济的成熟，日本通过向价值链上游移动并创建索尼（纽约证券交易所代码：SONY）等高质量品牌来解决这个问题。今天，日本以其工艺而闻名。</blockquote></p><p> China is following the same trajectory, and NIO is one of the emerging brands destroying the perception that \"made in China\" equates to poor quality. I strongly believe that investors who stubbornly hold on to that old perception will miss out on investing in some of the greatest brands the world will ever see.</p><p><blockquote>中国也在遵循同样的轨迹，蔚来是摧毁“中国制造”等同于劣质观念的新兴品牌之一。我坚信，顽固坚持这种旧观念的投资者将错过投资世界上一些最伟大品牌的机会。</blockquote></p><p> Buying an NIO car means much more than just getting a vehicle; it means getting into an exclusive club of services and convenience. Benefits include access to hundreds of swapping stations, lifetime free roadside rescue (including charge vans), lifetime free cellular connectivity, lifetime free warranty, and excellent customer service. This is a powerful selling point for NIO, differentiating it from Tesla, which hasrecentlydeveloped a poor reputation on the customer service front in China.</p><p><blockquote>购买蔚来汽车不仅仅意味着获得一辆车；这意味着进入一个服务和便利的专属俱乐部。好处包括使用数百个交换站、终身免费路边救援（包括充电车）、终身免费蜂窝连接、终身免费保修和卓越的客户服务。这是蔚来的一个强大卖点，使其有别于特斯拉，后者最近在中国的客户服务方面名声不佳。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a73482aa0431694b760ab5c2d0aa6f53\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"211\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source: Company</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：公司</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> The company is pushing the envelope even further with&nbsp;NIO House, a literal clubhouse for customers, and&nbsp;NIO Life, which includes NIO branded lifestyle products. NIO's effort to build a lifestyle around its cars seems to be&nbsp;working. This is good news for investors because the only way to escape the competitive battlefield of automobile OEM is to sell services and lifestyles to customers. This is why Ferrari's (RACE) operating margin is well over 20%, while Ford (F) and General Motors (GM) are in the single digits.</p><p><blockquote>该公司正在进一步挑战极限，推出了蔚来之家（London House）（一个真正的顾客俱乐部会所）和蔚来人寿（Kenneth Life），其中包括蔚来品牌的生活方式产品。蔚来围绕汽车打造生活方式的努力似乎正在发挥作用。这对投资者来说是个好消息，因为逃离汽车代工竞争战场的唯一方法就是向客户推销服务和生活方式。这就是为什么法拉利(RACE)的营业利润率远高于20%，而福特(F)和通用汽车(GM)则为个位数。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Financials &amp; Valuation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>财务与估值</b></blockquote></p><p> NIO is in hyper-growth mode. In 2020, the company generated $2.5 billion in revenue, up 126% y/y. In 2021, the company is expected to grow 117% y/y to $5.4 billion.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来正处于高速增长模式。2020年，该公司实现收入25亿美元，同比增长126%。2021年，该公司预计将同比增长117%，达到54亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> The company is not yet profitable but is expected to be by 2022. Gross margin only turned positive in 2020 and is expected to be 19.3% in 2021. EBITDA is expected to be negative $258 million in 2021 and a positive $206 million in 2022. Free cash flow is expected to be negative $42 million in 2021 before turning to a positive $354 million in 2022.</p><p><blockquote>该公司尚未盈利，但预计到2022年将实现盈利。毛利率仅在2020年转正，预计2021年为19.3%。预计2021年EBITDA为负2.58亿美元，2022年为正2.06亿美元。预计2021年自由现金流将为负4200万美元，然后在2022年转为正3.54亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> However, despite the cash burn expected in 2021, investors should feel at ease since the company exited&nbsp;2020&nbsp;with $5.9 billion of cash and cash equivalents. Including $600 million in short-term investments and subtracting ~$2.1 billion in debt and operating leases and the expected negative free cash flow in 2021, NIO should exit 2021 with over $4 billion in net cash and investments. That is plenty of buffers since NIO is expected to generate positive free cash flow in 2022.</p><p><blockquote>然而，尽管预计2021年将出现现金消耗，但投资者应该感到放心，因为该公司在2020年退出时拥有59亿美元的现金和现金等价物。包括6亿美元的短期投资，减去约21亿美元的债务和经营租赁以及2021年预期的负自由现金流，蔚来在2021年退出时应拥有超过40亿美元的净现金和投资。这是足够的缓冲，因为蔚来预计将在2022年产生正的自由现金流。</blockquote></p><p> Since NIO is not yet profitable, we will look at the forward EV/Sales multiple as is typical for hyper-growth companies not yet generating a profit. The company went public in September 2018, trading at around 7 to 8 times EV/Sales, before bottoming out at around 0.7 times sales in May 2019. The market, however, caught the EV fever in April 2020 and sent NIO's valuation soaring to a peak of 14.6x by January 2021. After the growth sell-off we recently experienced, NIO is currently sitting at a much more reasonable 8 times forward sales. This is a significant discount to TSLA's 10.2 times forward EV/Sales despite growing twice as fast (TSLA is expected to grow revenues by 57% in 2021 compared to NIO's 117%).</p><p><blockquote>由于蔚来尚未盈利，我们将关注预期EV/销售额倍数，这对于尚未盈利的高速增长公司来说是典型的。该公司于2018年9月上市，交易价格约为EV/销售额的7至8倍，随后于2019年5月触底，约为销售额的0.7倍。然而，市场在2020年4月掀起了电动汽车热潮，到2021年1月，蔚来的估值飙升至14.6倍的峰值。在我们最近经历的增长抛售之后，蔚来目前的预期销售额为8倍，这要合理得多。尽管TSLA的增长速度是其两倍，但这与TSLA 10.2倍的预期EV/销售额相比仍有很大折扣（预计TSLA 2021年收入将增长57%，而蔚来为117%）。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Risks</b></p><p><blockquote><b>风险</b></blockquote></p><p> There are many risks associated with owning NIO.</p><p><blockquote>拥有蔚来有很多风险。</blockquote></p><p> Although its battery swapping strategy is highly differentiated and seems to be growing rapidly, the jury is still out on the ultimate market share of battery swapping or fast-charging infrastructure. If fast charging technology continues to advance significantly, it will likely erode a key advantage of battery swapping: speed.</p><p><blockquote>尽管其换电战略高度差异化，且似乎增长迅速，但换电或快充基础设施的最终市场份额仍未定论。如果快速充电技术继续大幅进步，很可能会侵蚀电池交换的一个关键优势：速度。</blockquote></p><p> NIO's business model is innovative and new. Unfortunately, the flip side of that is that it is untested, and NIO remains unprofitable. For many investors, NIO will remain a \"show me\" story until the profitability of its business model improves.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来的商业模式是创新和新的。不幸的是，另一方面是它未经测试，蔚来仍然没有盈利。对于许多投资者来说，在其商业模式的盈利能力改善之前，蔚来仍将是一个“向我展示”的故事。</blockquote></p><p> NIO's ability to expand globally may be limited by the rising geopolitical tension between China and the US, and to a lesser extent, with Japan and Europe. The geopolitical situation remains highly opaque and uncertain, and is a risk factor for all auto OEMs.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来在全球扩张的能力可能会受到中美之间地缘政治紧张局势加剧的限制，在较小程度上也会受到与日欧之间地缘政治紧张局势的限制。地缘政治局势仍然高度不透明和不确定，是所有汽车原始设备制造商的风险因素。</blockquote></p><p> Auto OEMs are currently facing a severe chip&nbsp;shortage. In addition, the chip density in automobiles is increasing, making the OEMs increasingly reliant on semiconductor suppliers and foundries.</p><p><blockquote>汽车主机厂目前正面临严重的芯片短缺。此外，汽车中的芯片密度正在增加，使得原始设备制造商越来越依赖半导体供应商和代工厂。</blockquote></p><p> NIO's competitive advantages may not overcome the massive scale advantage of ICE OEMs and much bigger EV players like Tesla and China's BYD.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来的竞争优势可能无法克服内燃机原始设备制造商以及特斯拉和比亚迪等更大的电动汽车制造商的巨大规模优势。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Takeaway</b></p><p><blockquote><b>外卖</b></blockquote></p><p> NIO's technical and business model innovations make it a highly differentiated company in the exciting and rapidly growing EV market. The company is winning, and its competitive moat is getting bigger as its ecosystem of vehicles and services grows. Relative to the industry leader, Tesla, NIO's stock price seems like a bargain given its faster growth rate and lower multiples.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来的技术和商业模式创新使其在令人兴奋且快速增长的电动汽车市场中成为一家高度差异化的公司。该公司正在获胜，随着其车辆和服务生态系统的发展，其竞争护城河也越来越大。相对于行业领导者特斯拉，鉴于其更快的增长率和更低的市盈率，蔚来的股价似乎很便宜。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435341-nio-is-winning\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NIO":"蔚来"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435341-nio-is-winning","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1148576248","content_text":"Summary\n\nNIO is #1 in China's electric SUV market for good reason.\nThe company's success is driven by its brilliant innovations and marketing strategy.\nNIO is growing faster than Tesla, and yet, it is trading at a discount.\n\nPonyWang/E+ via Getty Images\nNIO Inc. (NYSE:NIO) stands out for its strong market position- #1 market share in electric SUV in China- and innovation in the rapidly growing and highly competitive electric vehicle industry. This article will discuss why NIO is winning against some stiff competition, including against Tesla (TSLA).\nIn addition, we will discuss NIO's business, financials, trading, valuation, and risks so readers could reach their own informed decision.\nBusiness: Why NIO Wins\nNIO positions itself in the premium SUV segment, focusing on smart EVs with a differentiated battery strategy.\nDelivered in March 2019, the company's first model, the ES8, is a luxury 7-seater SUV that is still the company's flagship product today. The ES8 is equipped with ADAS and AI system [NOMI] and is comparable to the BYD Song, Tesla Model X, the Audi Q7 45 e-Tron, etc.\nSource: Company\nLeveraging the installed base and customer goodwill due to the highly successful ES8, NIO successfully launched the ES6 and EC6.Recently, the company launched the ET7, its first sedan.\nToday, NIO is the top-selling brand in China's all-electric SUV market in April with a 23% market share, higher than Tesla's 17%, WM Motor and XPeng Motors'(NYSE:XPEV)7%, according to China Automotive Technology and Research Center data.\nOne of the biggest competitive differentiators is NIO'sbattery strategy, which all but eliminates range anxiety, one of the biggest barriers to mass EV adoption. Not only could NIO cars be charged at any charging station for EVs, but the company also built hundreds of battery swapping stations in key cities in China, with plans to expanding to Europe.\nNIO's battery swapping strategy also gives the company the ability to offer a battery-as-a-service [BaaS] solution, which reduces the upfrontcostof purchasing an NIO vehicle by ~$11,000. Since cost is another major barrier to mass EV adoption, NIO's battery strategy appears brilliant as it solves both the range and cost problems.\nSource: Company\nAnother differentiator is the NIO brand, which management created brilliantly by introducing the EP9 in 2016. Six EP9s have been sold to NIO investors for 2.5 million pounds, creating an aura of exclusivity and quality around the brand. Next, NIO targeted the mass-market luxury SUV segment with the ES8, firmly establishing the company as a luxury car OEM.\nSource: Company\nChinese companies must struggle against the common perception that they make low-quality products. This is the same perception issue that Japanese companies faced following their defeat after WW2. Japan solved this problem by moving up the value chain as their economy matured and creating high-quality brands such as Sony(NYSE:SONY). Today, Japan is known for its craftsmanship.\nChina is following the same trajectory, and NIO is one of the emerging brands destroying the perception that \"made in China\" equates to poor quality. I strongly believe that investors who stubbornly hold on to that old perception will miss out on investing in some of the greatest brands the world will ever see.\nBuying an NIO car means much more than just getting a vehicle; it means getting into an exclusive club of services and convenience. Benefits include access to hundreds of swapping stations, lifetime free roadside rescue (including charge vans), lifetime free cellular connectivity, lifetime free warranty, and excellent customer service. This is a powerful selling point for NIO, differentiating it from Tesla, which hasrecentlydeveloped a poor reputation on the customer service front in China.\nSource: Company\nThe company is pushing the envelope even further with NIO House, a literal clubhouse for customers, and NIO Life, which includes NIO branded lifestyle products. NIO's effort to build a lifestyle around its cars seems to be working. This is good news for investors because the only way to escape the competitive battlefield of automobile OEM is to sell services and lifestyles to customers. This is why Ferrari's (RACE) operating margin is well over 20%, while Ford (F) and General Motors (GM) are in the single digits.\nFinancials & Valuation\nNIO is in hyper-growth mode. In 2020, the company generated $2.5 billion in revenue, up 126% y/y. In 2021, the company is expected to grow 117% y/y to $5.4 billion.\nThe company is not yet profitable but is expected to be by 2022. Gross margin only turned positive in 2020 and is expected to be 19.3% in 2021. EBITDA is expected to be negative $258 million in 2021 and a positive $206 million in 2022. Free cash flow is expected to be negative $42 million in 2021 before turning to a positive $354 million in 2022.\nHowever, despite the cash burn expected in 2021, investors should feel at ease since the company exited 2020 with $5.9 billion of cash and cash equivalents. Including $600 million in short-term investments and subtracting ~$2.1 billion in debt and operating leases and the expected negative free cash flow in 2021, NIO should exit 2021 with over $4 billion in net cash and investments. That is plenty of buffers since NIO is expected to generate positive free cash flow in 2022.\nSince NIO is not yet profitable, we will look at the forward EV/Sales multiple as is typical for hyper-growth companies not yet generating a profit. The company went public in September 2018, trading at around 7 to 8 times EV/Sales, before bottoming out at around 0.7 times sales in May 2019. The market, however, caught the EV fever in April 2020 and sent NIO's valuation soaring to a peak of 14.6x by January 2021. After the growth sell-off we recently experienced, NIO is currently sitting at a much more reasonable 8 times forward sales. This is a significant discount to TSLA's 10.2 times forward EV/Sales despite growing twice as fast (TSLA is expected to grow revenues by 57% in 2021 compared to NIO's 117%).\nRisks\nThere are many risks associated with owning NIO.\nAlthough its battery swapping strategy is highly differentiated and seems to be growing rapidly, the jury is still out on the ultimate market share of battery swapping or fast-charging infrastructure. If fast charging technology continues to advance significantly, it will likely erode a key advantage of battery swapping: speed.\nNIO's business model is innovative and new. Unfortunately, the flip side of that is that it is untested, and NIO remains unprofitable. For many investors, NIO will remain a \"show me\" story until the profitability of its business model improves.\nNIO's ability to expand globally may be limited by the rising geopolitical tension between China and the US, and to a lesser extent, with Japan and Europe. The geopolitical situation remains highly opaque and uncertain, and is a risk factor for all auto OEMs.\nAuto OEMs are currently facing a severe chip shortage. In addition, the chip density in automobiles is increasing, making the OEMs increasingly reliant on semiconductor suppliers and foundries.\nNIO's competitive advantages may not overcome the massive scale advantage of ICE OEMs and much bigger EV players like Tesla and China's BYD.\nTakeaway\nNIO's technical and business model innovations make it a highly differentiated company in the exciting and rapidly growing EV market. The company is winning, and its competitive moat is getting bigger as its ecosystem of vehicles and services grows. Relative to the industry leader, Tesla, NIO's stock price seems like a bargain given its faster growth rate and lower multiples.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NIO":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":554,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":836541993,"gmtCreate":1629510036412,"gmtModify":1633684365050,"author":{"id":"3580280937765956","authorId":"3580280937765956","name":"ShuJie","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fab78f17f563d835249358a8d127785c","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3580280937765956","idStr":"3580280937765956"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Very smart company, heard that they want to come out with 3rd vaccine. Really know how to earn money&nbsp;","listText":"Very smart company, heard that they want to come out with 3rd vaccine. Really know how to earn money&nbsp;","text":"Very smart company, heard that they want to come out with 3rd vaccine. Really know how to earn money","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":7,"repostSize":1,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/836541993","repostId":"2161745179","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3265,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":198837845,"gmtCreate":1620950367187,"gmtModify":1634195086307,"author":{"id":"3580280937765956","authorId":"3580280937765956","name":"ShuJie","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fab78f17f563d835249358a8d127785c","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3580280937765956","idStr":"3580280937765956"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Can the share price jump along with their booking at 52% too? 😆","listText":"Can the share price jump along with their booking at 52% too? 😆","text":"Can the share price jump along with their booking at 52% too? 😆","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":9,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/198837845","repostId":"2135732206","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":560,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":193142923,"gmtCreate":1620777378362,"gmtModify":1634196453303,"author":{"id":"3580280937765956","authorId":"3580280937765956","name":"ShuJie","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fab78f17f563d835249358a8d127785c","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3580280937765956","idStr":"3580280937765956"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Watching US stocks... you really need to stay very calm and confident about your purchase.","listText":"Watching US stocks... you really need to stay very calm and confident about your purchase.","text":"Watching US stocks... you really need to stay very calm and confident about your purchase.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":7,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/193142923","repostId":"2134954698","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":386,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":164151912,"gmtCreate":1624183743336,"gmtModify":1634009700165,"author":{"id":"3580280937765956","authorId":"3580280937765956","name":"ShuJie","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fab78f17f563d835249358a8d127785c","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3580280937765956","idStr":"3580280937765956"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Buy buy buy","listText":"Buy buy buy","text":"Buy buy buy","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/164151912","repostId":"1166679093","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1166679093","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624065234,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1166679093?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-19 09:13","market":"us","language":"en","title":"3 Meme Stocks Wall Street Predicts Will Plunge More Than 20%<blockquote>华尔街预测3只模因股将暴跌20%以上</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1166679093","media":"fool","summary":"Meme stocks have been all the rage so far this year. That's understandable, with several of them del","content":"<p>Meme stocks have been all the rage so far this year. That's understandable, with several of them delivering triple-digit and even four-digit percentage gains.</p><p><blockquote>今年到目前为止，模因股票风靡一时。这是可以理解的，其中一些公司实现了三位数甚至四位数的百分比增长。</blockquote></p><p> However, what goes up can come down. Analysts don't expect the online frenzy fueling the ginormous jumps for some of the most popular stocks will be sustainable. Here are three meme stocks that Wall Street thinks will plunge by more than 20% within the next 12 months.</p><p><blockquote>然而，上升的可以下降。分析师预计，推动一些最受欢迎股票大幅上涨的网络狂热不会持续下去。以下是华尔街认为未来12个月内将暴跌20%以上的三只模因股票。</blockquote></p><p> AMC Entertainment</p><p><blockquote>AMC院线</blockquote></p><p> <b>AMC Entertainment</b>(NYSE:AMC)ranks as the best-performing meme stock of all. Shares of the movie theater operator have skyrocketed close to 2,500% year to date.</p><p><blockquote><b>AMC院线</b>（纽约证券交易所股票代码：AMC）被评为所有模因股票中表现最好的。今年迄今为止，这家电影院运营商的股价已飙升近2,500%。</blockquote></p><p> The consensus among analysts, though, is that the stock could lose 90% of its current value. Even the most optimistic analyst surveyed by Refinitiv has a price target for AMC that's more than 70% below the current share price.</p><p><blockquote>不过，分析师的共识是，该股可能会损失当前价值的90%。即使是Refinitiv调查的最乐观的分析师对AMC的目标价也比当前股价低70%以上。</blockquote></p><p> But isn't AMC's business picking up? Yep. The easing of restrictions has enabled the company to reopen 99% of its U.S. theaters. AMC could benefit as seating capacity limitations imposed by state and local governments are raised. Thereleases of multiple movies this summerand later this year that are likely to be hits should also help.</p><p><blockquote>但AMC的业务不是在回暖吗？是的。限制的放松使该公司能够重新开放99%的美国影院。随着州和地方政府施加的座位容量限制的提高，AMC可能会受益。今年夏天和今年晚些时候上映的多部可能会大受欢迎的电影也应该会有所帮助。</blockquote></p><p> However, Wall Street clearly believes that AMC's share price has gotten way ahead of its business prospects. The stock is trading at nearly eight times higher than it was before the COVID-19 pandemic.</p><p><blockquote>然而，华尔街显然认为AMC的股价已经远远超出了其业务前景。该股目前的交易价格比COVID-19大流行之前高出近八倍。</blockquote></p><p> Clover Health Investments</p><p><blockquote>三叶草健康投资</blockquote></p><p> Only a few days ago, it looked like&nbsp;<b>Clover Health Investments</b>(NASDAQ:CLOV)might push AMC to the side as the hottest meme stock. Retail investors viewed Clover as a primeshort squeezecandidate.</p><p><blockquote>就在几天前，看起来<b>三叶草健康投资</b>（纳斯达克股票代码：CLOV）可能会将AMC推到最热门的模因股票旁边。散户投资者将Clover视为主要的空头挤压候选者。</blockquote></p><p> Since the beginning of June, shares of Clover Health have jumped more than 65%. Analysts, however, don't expect those gains to last. The average price target for the stock is 25% below the current share price.</p><p><blockquote>自6月初以来，Clover Health的股价已上涨超过65%。然而，分析师预计这些涨幅不会持续下去。该股的平均目标价比当前股价低25%。</blockquote></p><p> Clover Health's valuation does seem to have gotten out of hand. The healthcare stock currently trades at more than 170 times trailing-12-month sales. That's a nosebleed level, especially considering that the company is the subject of investigations by the U.S. Department of Justice and the Securities and Exchange Commission.</p><p><blockquote>Clover Health的估值似乎确实已经失控。该医疗保健股目前的交易价格是过去12个月销售额的170多倍。这是一个令人流鼻血的水平，特别是考虑到该公司是美国调查的对象。司法部和证券交易委员会。</blockquote></p><p> Still, Clover Health could deliver improving financial results this year. The company hopes to significantly increase its membership by targeting the original Medicare program. This represents a major new market opportunity in addition to its current Medicare Advantage business.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，Clover Health今年的财务业绩可能会有所改善。该公司希望通过瞄准原来的医疗保险计划来大幅增加其会员。除了当前的Medicare Advantage业务之外，这也是一个重大的新市场机会。</blockquote></p><p> Sundial Growers</p><p><blockquote>日晷种植者</blockquote></p><p> At one point earlier this year,&nbsp;<b>Sundial Growers</b>(NASDAQ:SNDL)appeared to be a legitimate contender to become the biggest winner among meme stocks. The Canadian marijuana stock vaulted more than 520% higher year to date before giving up much of its gains. However, Sundial's share price has still more than doubled in 2021.</p><p><blockquote>今年早些时候，<b>日晷种植者</b>（纳斯达克股票代码：SNDL）似乎是成为模因股票最大赢家的合法竞争者。加拿大大麻股票今年迄今已上涨超过520%，随后回吐了大部分涨幅。不过，Sundial的股价在2021年仍上涨了一倍多。</blockquote></p><p> Analysts anticipate that the pot stock could fall even further. The consensus price target for Sundial reflects a 23% discount to its current share price. One analyst even thinks the stock could sink 55%.</p><p><blockquote>分析师预计大麻库存可能会进一步下跌。Sundial的共识目标价较其当前股价有23%的折扣。一位分析师甚至认为该股可能下跌55%。</blockquote></p><p> There certainly are reasons to be pessimistic about Sundial's core cannabis business. The company's net cannabis revenue fell year over year in the first quarter of 2021. Although Sundial is taking steps that it hopes will turn things around, it remains to be seen if those efforts will succeed.</p><p><blockquote>当然有理由对Sundial的核心大麻业务持悲观态度。该公司2021年第一季度的大麻净收入同比下降。尽管日晷正在采取措施，希望能够扭转局面，但这些努力是否会成功还有待观察。</blockquote></p><p> Sundial's business deals could give investors reasons for optimism. After all, the company posted positive adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) in Q1 due to its investments.</p><p><blockquote>Sundial的商业交易可能会给投资者带来乐观的理由。毕竟，由于其投资，该公司第一季度调整后息税折旧摊销前利润(EBITDA)为正。</blockquote></p><p> However, the cash that Sundial is using to make these investments has come at the cost of increased dilution of its stock. The company can't afford any additional dilution without having to resort to desperate measures to keep its listing on the&nbsp;<b>Nasdaq</b>&nbsp;stock exchange.</p><p><blockquote>然而，Sundial用于进行这些投资的现金是以其股票进一步稀释为代价的。该公司无法承受任何额外的稀释，除非采取绝望的措施来维持其在<b>纳斯达克</b>证券交易所。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>3 Meme Stocks Wall Street Predicts Will Plunge More Than 20%<blockquote>华尔街预测3只模因股将暴跌20%以上</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n3 Meme Stocks Wall Street Predicts Will Plunge More Than 20%<blockquote>华尔街预测3只模因股将暴跌20%以上</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">fool</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-19 09:13</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Meme stocks have been all the rage so far this year. That's understandable, with several of them delivering triple-digit and even four-digit percentage gains.</p><p><blockquote>今年到目前为止，模因股票风靡一时。这是可以理解的，其中一些公司实现了三位数甚至四位数的百分比增长。</blockquote></p><p> However, what goes up can come down. Analysts don't expect the online frenzy fueling the ginormous jumps for some of the most popular stocks will be sustainable. Here are three meme stocks that Wall Street thinks will plunge by more than 20% within the next 12 months.</p><p><blockquote>然而，上升的可以下降。分析师预计，推动一些最受欢迎股票大幅上涨的网络狂热不会持续下去。以下是华尔街认为未来12个月内将暴跌20%以上的三只模因股票。</blockquote></p><p> AMC Entertainment</p><p><blockquote>AMC院线</blockquote></p><p> <b>AMC Entertainment</b>(NYSE:AMC)ranks as the best-performing meme stock of all. Shares of the movie theater operator have skyrocketed close to 2,500% year to date.</p><p><blockquote><b>AMC院线</b>（纽约证券交易所股票代码：AMC）被评为所有模因股票中表现最好的。今年迄今为止，这家电影院运营商的股价已飙升近2,500%。</blockquote></p><p> The consensus among analysts, though, is that the stock could lose 90% of its current value. Even the most optimistic analyst surveyed by Refinitiv has a price target for AMC that's more than 70% below the current share price.</p><p><blockquote>不过，分析师的共识是，该股可能会损失当前价值的90%。即使是Refinitiv调查的最乐观的分析师对AMC的目标价也比当前股价低70%以上。</blockquote></p><p> But isn't AMC's business picking up? Yep. The easing of restrictions has enabled the company to reopen 99% of its U.S. theaters. AMC could benefit as seating capacity limitations imposed by state and local governments are raised. Thereleases of multiple movies this summerand later this year that are likely to be hits should also help.</p><p><blockquote>但AMC的业务不是在回暖吗？是的。限制的放松使该公司能够重新开放99%的美国影院。随着州和地方政府施加的座位容量限制的提高，AMC可能会受益。今年夏天和今年晚些时候上映的多部可能会大受欢迎的电影也应该会有所帮助。</blockquote></p><p> However, Wall Street clearly believes that AMC's share price has gotten way ahead of its business prospects. The stock is trading at nearly eight times higher than it was before the COVID-19 pandemic.</p><p><blockquote>然而，华尔街显然认为AMC的股价已经远远超出了其业务前景。该股目前的交易价格比COVID-19大流行之前高出近八倍。</blockquote></p><p> Clover Health Investments</p><p><blockquote>三叶草健康投资</blockquote></p><p> Only a few days ago, it looked like&nbsp;<b>Clover Health Investments</b>(NASDAQ:CLOV)might push AMC to the side as the hottest meme stock. Retail investors viewed Clover as a primeshort squeezecandidate.</p><p><blockquote>就在几天前，看起来<b>三叶草健康投资</b>（纳斯达克股票代码：CLOV）可能会将AMC推到最热门的模因股票旁边。散户投资者将Clover视为主要的空头挤压候选者。</blockquote></p><p> Since the beginning of June, shares of Clover Health have jumped more than 65%. Analysts, however, don't expect those gains to last. The average price target for the stock is 25% below the current share price.</p><p><blockquote>自6月初以来，Clover Health的股价已上涨超过65%。然而，分析师预计这些涨幅不会持续下去。该股的平均目标价比当前股价低25%。</blockquote></p><p> Clover Health's valuation does seem to have gotten out of hand. The healthcare stock currently trades at more than 170 times trailing-12-month sales. That's a nosebleed level, especially considering that the company is the subject of investigations by the U.S. Department of Justice and the Securities and Exchange Commission.</p><p><blockquote>Clover Health的估值似乎确实已经失控。该医疗保健股目前的交易价格是过去12个月销售额的170多倍。这是一个令人流鼻血的水平，特别是考虑到该公司是美国调查的对象。司法部和证券交易委员会。</blockquote></p><p> Still, Clover Health could deliver improving financial results this year. The company hopes to significantly increase its membership by targeting the original Medicare program. This represents a major new market opportunity in addition to its current Medicare Advantage business.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，Clover Health今年的财务业绩可能会有所改善。该公司希望通过瞄准原来的医疗保险计划来大幅增加其会员。除了当前的Medicare Advantage业务之外，这也是一个重大的新市场机会。</blockquote></p><p> Sundial Growers</p><p><blockquote>日晷种植者</blockquote></p><p> At one point earlier this year,&nbsp;<b>Sundial Growers</b>(NASDAQ:SNDL)appeared to be a legitimate contender to become the biggest winner among meme stocks. The Canadian marijuana stock vaulted more than 520% higher year to date before giving up much of its gains. However, Sundial's share price has still more than doubled in 2021.</p><p><blockquote>今年早些时候，<b>日晷种植者</b>（纳斯达克股票代码：SNDL）似乎是成为模因股票最大赢家的合法竞争者。加拿大大麻股票今年迄今已上涨超过520%，随后回吐了大部分涨幅。不过，Sundial的股价在2021年仍上涨了一倍多。</blockquote></p><p> Analysts anticipate that the pot stock could fall even further. The consensus price target for Sundial reflects a 23% discount to its current share price. One analyst even thinks the stock could sink 55%.</p><p><blockquote>分析师预计大麻库存可能会进一步下跌。Sundial的共识目标价较其当前股价有23%的折扣。一位分析师甚至认为该股可能下跌55%。</blockquote></p><p> There certainly are reasons to be pessimistic about Sundial's core cannabis business. The company's net cannabis revenue fell year over year in the first quarter of 2021. Although Sundial is taking steps that it hopes will turn things around, it remains to be seen if those efforts will succeed.</p><p><blockquote>当然有理由对Sundial的核心大麻业务持悲观态度。该公司2021年第一季度的大麻净收入同比下降。尽管日晷正在采取措施，希望能够扭转局面，但这些努力是否会成功还有待观察。</blockquote></p><p> Sundial's business deals could give investors reasons for optimism. After all, the company posted positive adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) in Q1 due to its investments.</p><p><blockquote>Sundial的商业交易可能会给投资者带来乐观的理由。毕竟，由于其投资，该公司第一季度调整后息税折旧摊销前利润(EBITDA)为正。</blockquote></p><p> However, the cash that Sundial is using to make these investments has come at the cost of increased dilution of its stock. The company can't afford any additional dilution without having to resort to desperate measures to keep its listing on the&nbsp;<b>Nasdaq</b>&nbsp;stock exchange.</p><p><blockquote>然而，Sundial用于进行这些投资的现金是以其股票进一步稀释为代价的。该公司无法承受任何额外的稀释，除非采取绝望的措施来维持其在<b>纳斯达克</b>证券交易所。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/06/18/3-meme-stocks-wall-street-predicts-will-plunge-mor/\">fool</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"CLOV":"Clover Health Corp","SNDL":"SNDL Inc.","AMC":"AMC院线"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/06/18/3-meme-stocks-wall-street-predicts-will-plunge-mor/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1166679093","content_text":"Meme stocks have been all the rage so far this year. That's understandable, with several of them delivering triple-digit and even four-digit percentage gains.\nHowever, what goes up can come down. Analysts don't expect the online frenzy fueling the ginormous jumps for some of the most popular stocks will be sustainable. Here are three meme stocks that Wall Street thinks will plunge by more than 20% within the next 12 months.\nAMC Entertainment\nAMC Entertainment(NYSE:AMC)ranks as the best-performing meme stock of all. Shares of the movie theater operator have skyrocketed close to 2,500% year to date.\nThe consensus among analysts, though, is that the stock could lose 90% of its current value. Even the most optimistic analyst surveyed by Refinitiv has a price target for AMC that's more than 70% below the current share price.\nBut isn't AMC's business picking up? Yep. The easing of restrictions has enabled the company to reopen 99% of its U.S. theaters. AMC could benefit as seating capacity limitations imposed by state and local governments are raised. Thereleases of multiple movies this summerand later this year that are likely to be hits should also help.\nHowever, Wall Street clearly believes that AMC's share price has gotten way ahead of its business prospects. The stock is trading at nearly eight times higher than it was before the COVID-19 pandemic.\nClover Health Investments\nOnly a few days ago, it looked like Clover Health Investments(NASDAQ:CLOV)might push AMC to the side as the hottest meme stock. Retail investors viewed Clover as a primeshort squeezecandidate.\nSince the beginning of June, shares of Clover Health have jumped more than 65%. Analysts, however, don't expect those gains to last. The average price target for the stock is 25% below the current share price.\nClover Health's valuation does seem to have gotten out of hand. The healthcare stock currently trades at more than 170 times trailing-12-month sales. That's a nosebleed level, especially considering that the company is the subject of investigations by the U.S. Department of Justice and the Securities and Exchange Commission.\nStill, Clover Health could deliver improving financial results this year. The company hopes to significantly increase its membership by targeting the original Medicare program. This represents a major new market opportunity in addition to its current Medicare Advantage business.\nSundial Growers\nAt one point earlier this year, Sundial Growers(NASDAQ:SNDL)appeared to be a legitimate contender to become the biggest winner among meme stocks. The Canadian marijuana stock vaulted more than 520% higher year to date before giving up much of its gains. However, Sundial's share price has still more than doubled in 2021.\nAnalysts anticipate that the pot stock could fall even further. The consensus price target for Sundial reflects a 23% discount to its current share price. One analyst even thinks the stock could sink 55%.\nThere certainly are reasons to be pessimistic about Sundial's core cannabis business. The company's net cannabis revenue fell year over year in the first quarter of 2021. Although Sundial is taking steps that it hopes will turn things around, it remains to be seen if those efforts will succeed.\nSundial's business deals could give investors reasons for optimism. After all, the company posted positive adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) in Q1 due to its investments.\nHowever, the cash that Sundial is using to make these investments has come at the cost of increased dilution of its stock. The company can't afford any additional dilution without having to resort to desperate measures to keep its listing on the Nasdaq stock exchange.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"CLOV":0.9,"AMC":0.9,"SNDL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":660,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":195732061,"gmtCreate":1621314317753,"gmtModify":1634192505938,"author":{"id":"3580280937765956","authorId":"3580280937765956","name":"ShuJie","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fab78f17f563d835249358a8d127785c","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3580280937765956","idStr":"3580280937765956"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Please shoot up soon... I wanna sell you off haha","listText":"Please shoot up soon... I wanna sell you off haha","text":"Please shoot up soon... I wanna sell you off haha","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/195732061","repostId":"1187982931","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1137,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":199188592,"gmtCreate":1620691318516,"gmtModify":1631884327688,"author":{"id":"3580280937765956","authorId":"3580280937765956","name":"ShuJie","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fab78f17f563d835249358a8d127785c","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3580280937765956","idStr":"3580280937765956"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Hope they pick up soon!!&nbsp;","listText":"Hope they pick up soon!!&nbsp;","text":"Hope they pick up soon!!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/199188592","repostId":"2134551566","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":669,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":884055534,"gmtCreate":1631842014428,"gmtModify":1631885578577,"author":{"id":"3580280937765956","authorId":"3580280937765956","name":"ShuJie","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fab78f17f563d835249358a8d127785c","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3580280937765956","idStr":"3580280937765956"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Wow","listText":"Wow","text":"Wow","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/884055534","repostId":"2168154770","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2271,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":101501354,"gmtCreate":1619920138178,"gmtModify":1634209133989,"author":{"id":"3580280937765956","authorId":"3580280937765956","name":"ShuJie","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fab78f17f563d835249358a8d127785c","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3580280937765956","idStr":"3580280937765956"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Wow!","listText":"Wow!","text":"Wow!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/101501354","repostId":"2132603015","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":707,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":100938181,"gmtCreate":1619573283543,"gmtModify":1634211659318,"author":{"id":"3580280937765956","authorId":"3580280937765956","name":"ShuJie","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fab78f17f563d835249358a8d127785c","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3580280937765956","idStr":"3580280937765956"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"LinkedIn is good!","listText":"LinkedIn is good!","text":"LinkedIn is good!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/100938181","repostId":"1139832614","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":549,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":156035931,"gmtCreate":1625185465223,"gmtModify":1633942813674,"author":{"id":"3580280937765956","authorId":"3580280937765956","name":"ShuJie","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fab78f17f563d835249358a8d127785c","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3580280937765956","idStr":"3580280937765956"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok put to watchlist&nbsp;","listText":"Ok put to watchlist&nbsp;","text":"Ok put to watchlist","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/156035931","repostId":"1121657128","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":783,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":127174978,"gmtCreate":1624841649994,"gmtModify":1633948177373,"author":{"id":"3580280937765956","authorId":"3580280937765956","name":"ShuJie","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fab78f17f563d835249358a8d127785c","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3580280937765956","idStr":"3580280937765956"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Have confidence! And make the stock goes up😎","listText":"Have confidence! And make the stock goes up😎","text":"Have confidence! And make the stock goes up😎","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/127174978","repostId":"2146007118","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":888,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":128862346,"gmtCreate":1624510503885,"gmtModify":1634005039080,"author":{"id":"3580280937765956","authorId":"3580280937765956","name":"ShuJie","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fab78f17f563d835249358a8d127785c","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3580280937765956","idStr":"3580280937765956"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Finally&nbsp;","listText":"Finally&nbsp;","text":"Finally","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/128862346","repostId":"2145156570","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":576,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":137845027,"gmtCreate":1622339538869,"gmtModify":1634102240324,"author":{"id":"3580280937765956","authorId":"3580280937765956","name":"ShuJie","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fab78f17f563d835249358a8d127785c","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3580280937765956","idStr":"3580280937765956"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"But why stocks haven’t dip yet?","listText":"But why stocks haven’t dip yet?","text":"But why stocks haven’t dip yet?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/137845027","repostId":"1188611521","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":540,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":133586216,"gmtCreate":1621769253735,"gmtModify":1634186680560,"author":{"id":"3580280937765956","authorId":"3580280937765956","name":"ShuJie","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fab78f17f563d835249358a8d127785c","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3580280937765956","idStr":"3580280937765956"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Sth to look at $$$","listText":"Sth to look at $$$","text":"Sth to look at $$$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/133586216","repostId":"1148771058","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":360,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":896964897,"gmtCreate":1628552528219,"gmtModify":1633746296624,"author":{"id":"3580280937765956","authorId":"3580280937765956","name":"ShuJie","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fab78f17f563d835249358a8d127785c","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3580280937765956","idStr":"3580280937765956"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Maybe that’s the reason for the surge in Golden Nuggets 50+%! Hohoho","listText":"Maybe that’s the reason for the surge in Golden Nuggets 50+%! Hohoho","text":"Maybe that’s the reason for the surge in Golden Nuggets 50+%! Hohoho","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/896964897","repostId":"2158246446","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1541,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":147096181,"gmtCreate":1626318101743,"gmtModify":1633927906524,"author":{"id":"3580280937765956","authorId":"3580280937765956","name":"ShuJie","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fab78f17f563d835249358a8d127785c","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3580280937765956","idStr":"3580280937765956"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Wow good","listText":"Wow good","text":"Wow good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/147096181","repostId":"1122758076","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1122758076","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1626316880,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1122758076?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-15 10:41","market":"fut","language":"en","title":"Goldman Sees Oil Price Spiking On UAE/OPEC+ Deal<blockquote>高盛预计阿联酋/OPEC+协议导致油价飙升</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1122758076","media":"zerohedge","summary":"Oil suffered its biggest drop in 2.5 months today after the EIA reported that in the latest week, ga","content":"<p>Oil suffered its biggest drop in 2.5 months today after the EIA reported that in the latest week, gasoline demand in the US unexpectedly tumbled by 760,000 barrels a day from the record 10 million barrels a day a week, to 9.28 million barrels a day to get back to levels in late June.</p><p><blockquote>EIA报告称，最近一周，美国汽油需求意外下降76万桶/日，从创纪录的每周1000万桶/日降至928万桶/日，油价今天遭遇2.5个月来最大跌幅。回到六月下旬的水平。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/96a51307958cb16bc6d3451c273dc614\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"662\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">While algos focused on the sharp drop, what they ignored was that the number was largely meaningless, since the reporting week included July 5, a day off for Americans. Additionally, the EIA’s estimate, known as product supplied, is derived from other data rather than being a direct measurement of consumption. Since that method often leads to erratic numbers, some observers prefer to use the 4-week rolling average. That measure was 9.485 million barrels a day, which was about equal to the same week in 2019</p><p><blockquote>虽然algos关注的是大幅下降，但他们忽略了这个数字在很大程度上毫无意义，因为报告周包括7月5日，这是美国人的休息日。此外，EIA的估计（称为产品供应量）来自其他数据，而不是直接衡量消费量。由于这种方法经常导致不稳定的数字，一些观察者更喜欢使用4周滚动平均值。该指标为948.5万桶/日，与2019年同周大致持平</blockquote></p><p> None of that mattered, however, as CTAs quickly joined in the selling frenzy and completely erasing the earlier jump on the far more important news of an OPEC+ deal.</p><p><blockquote>然而，这些都不重要，因为CTA很快加入了抛售狂潮，并完全抹去了早些时候因欧佩克+协议这一更重要的消息而出现的上涨。</blockquote></p><p> Just how important was the Reuters report that the UAE and Saudi Arabia are close to reaching a production agreement, one which sees both the higher baseline requested by the UAE (of 3.65 mb/d starting in April 2022) as well as an extension of the output agreement requested by Saudi (through December 2022). Important enough that in a note released late on Wednesday, Goldman said that the deal would remove the low-probability tail risks of potential price war, and \"<b>represents $2 to $4/bbl upside risk to our $80/bbl summer and $75/bbl 2022 Brent price forecasts.\"</b></p><p><blockquote>路透社报道阿联酋和沙特阿拉伯即将达成一项生产协议，这有多重要，该协议既包括阿联酋要求的更高基线（从2022年4月开始为3.65 mb/d），也包括延长产量沙特要求的产量协议（至2022年12月）。重要的是，高盛在周三晚些时候发布的一份报告中表示，该交易将消除潜在价格战的低概率尾部风险，并且“<b>我们夏季80美元/桶和2022年布伦特原油价格预测为75美元/桶，面临2至4美元/桶的上行风险。”</b></blockquote></p><p> In the note from Goldman commodity analysts Damien Courvalin and Jeff Currie, the two also write that the expected agreement “as the ﬁrst of likely four potential bullish supply catalysts over the coming month” that would more than offset higher North American production. Additionally, although some OPEC+ details remain uncertain, like August and September quotas or baselines of other countries, “these are of limited magnitude and importance to the global oil market outlook, which the bank continues to see as supportive of higher oil prices”</p><p><blockquote>高盛大宗商品分析师达米安·库尔瓦林(Damien Courvalin)和杰夫·柯里(Jeff Currie)在报告中还写道，预期的协议“是未来一个月四个潜在看涨供应催化剂中的第一个”，将足以抵消北美产量的增加。此外，尽管OPEC+的一些细节仍不确定，例如8月和9月的配额或其他国家的基线，但“这些对全球石油市场前景的规模和重要性有限，该行继续认为这支持油价上涨”</blockquote></p><p> Piling on the bullish cash, Courvalin writes that an OPEC+ deal that offers a higher baseline for the UAE, as well as an extension of output agreement through December 2022 - such as the one being contemplated -&nbsp; would be bullish relative to Goldman’s base case</p><p><blockquote>Courvalin写道，为阿联酋提供更高基线的OPEC+协议以及将产量协议延长至2022年12月（例如正在考虑的协议）相对于高盛的基本情况将是看涨的。</blockquote></p><p> And speaking of Goldman's forecasts, the bank had assumed a 500kb/d ramp-up starting in August as well as a gradually rising UAE baseline from 3.17m b/d to 3.3m b/d in August to 3.65m b/d by the end of 1Q 2022. As a result, such a deal would imply downside risk to its OPEC+ production forecast of 400k-600k b/d on average for 3Q 2021-1Q 2022, depending on whether the lack of August production hike is compensated for in September. Needless to say, that too is bullish for the price of oil... and yet one look at the collapse in oil prices today and one would be left shocked at just how dumb the algos have become.</p><p><blockquote>谈到高盛的预测，该行假设从8月份开始增产500kb/d，阿联酋的基线从8月份的317万b/d逐渐上升到330万b/d，到2022年第一季度末达到365万b/d。因此，这样的协议将意味着其2021年第三季度至2022年第一季度平均40万至60万桶/日的OPEC+产量预测面临下行风险，具体取决于8月份增产的不足是否在9月份得到弥补。不用说，这也对油价有利...然而，看看今天油价的暴跌，你会对算法变得多么愚蠢感到震惊。</blockquote></p><p> Finally, it's not just the UAE/OPEC+ deal that makes Goldman's commodities team hopeful - the bank’s other three potential bullish supply catalysts are listed as:-</p><p><blockquote>最后，不仅仅是阿联酋/OPEC+协议让高盛的大宗商品团队充满希望——该行的其他三个潜在看涨供应催化剂被列为：-</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Upcoming shale earnings season, which may reaffirm greater incentive toward returning cash to shareholders over production growth</li>  <li>That progress on the U.S. reaching an agreement with Iran has stalled, setting back the potential ramp up of exports</li>  <li>Bank’s view that consensus expectations for global production outside of North America and core-OPEC remain too optimistic</li> </ul> Below we excerpt from the full note:</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>即将到来的页岩油财报季，这可能会重申通过产量增长向股东返还现金的更大动力</li><li>美国与伊朗达成协议的进展停滞不前，阻碍了出口的潜在增长</li><li>银行认为，对北美和OPEC核心以外的全球产量的普遍预期仍然过于乐观</li></ul>下面我们摘录全文：</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <ul>  <li>The UAE and Saudi Arabia appear close to reaching a production agreement, with Reuters reporting progress towards a deal that would allow for both the higher baseline requested by the UAE (of 3.65 mb/d starting in April 2022) as well as an extension of the output agreement requested by Saudi (through December 2022).<b>We assume that the such a deal - if conﬁrmed - would likely come alongside a gradual 0.4 mb/d monthly ramp-up in production through December 2021, as all OPEC+ members had already supported this decision.</b></li>  <li>Such an agreement would help bridge the (modest) divide between both countries and<b>help remove the (low probability) OPEC+ tail risks of a potential price war or insufﬁcient production growth, as we expected.</b>While some details remain uncertain, like the August and September quotas or the baseline of other countries, these are of limited magnitude and importance to the global oil market outlook,<b>which we continue to see as supportive of higher oil prices.</b></li>  <li>Importantly,<b>such an OPEC+ agreement would be bullish relative to our base-case, as we had assumed (1) a 0.5 mb/d ramp-up starting in August as well as (2) a gradually rising UAE baseline from 3.17 mb/d to 3.3 mb/d in August to 3.65 mb/d by the end of 1Q22 (given its clear inequity).</b>As a result, a deal as described above would<b>imply downside risk to our OPEC+ production forecast of 0.4 to 0.6 mb/d on average for 3Q21-1Q22</b>(depending on whether the lack of August production hike is compensated for in September).</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/47c75c93814aad90865576eeb1666992\" tg-width=\"651\" tg-height=\"527\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><u><b>All else equal, this would represent $2 to $4/bbl upside risk to our $80/bbl summer and $75/bbl 2022 Brent price forecasts.</b></u>As a result,&nbsp;<b>we believe that risks to our bullish oil price forecasts are skewed to the upside, with the catalyst for such a move higher shifting from the demand to the supply side</b>. While our bullish view this year had been driven by our well above consensus demand growth forecast, this is no longer the case with (1) the sharp rebound in global oil demand that has taken place since May, from 95 to 98 mb/d currently and near our 99 mb/d end of summer forecast, mostly played out, with (2) the IEA expecting similar peak summer demand, and with (3) the EM vaccine led demand uplift set to only play out gradually through 1Q22.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>阿联酋和沙特阿拉伯似乎即将达成一项生产协议，路透社报道了一项协议的进展，该协议将允许阿联酋要求的更高基线（从2022年4月开始为365万桶/日）以及延长沙特要求的产量协议（至2022年12月）。<b>我们假设，这样的协议（如果得到确认）可能会伴随着到2021年12月每月产量逐步增加40万桶/日，因为所有OPEC+成员国都已经支持这一决定。</b></li><li>这样的协议将有助于弥合两国之间的（适度）分歧<b>正如我们预期的那样，有助于消除潜在价格战或产量增长不足的（低概率）OPEC+尾部风险。</b>虽然一些细节仍然不确定，如8月和9月的配额或其他国家的基准，但这些对全球石油市场前景的规模和重要性有限，<b>我们继续认为这支持油价上涨。</b></li><li>重要的是，<b>相对于我们的基本情况，这样的OPEC+协议将是看涨的，因为我们假设（1）从8月份开始增加0.5 mb/d，以及（2）阿联酋基线从3.17 mb/d逐渐上升到8月份的3.3 mb/d，到2022年第一季度结束时达到3.65 mb/d（鉴于其明显的不平等）。</b>因此，上述交易将<b>这意味着我们对2021年第三季度-2022年第一季度平均0.4至0.6 mb/d的OPEC+产量预测存在下行风险</b>（取决于8月份增产的不足是否在9月份得到弥补）。</li></ul><u><b>在其他条件相同的情况下，这将意味着我们夏季80美元/桶和2022年75美元/桶布伦特价格预测的2至4美元/桶的上行风险。</b></u>结果，<b>我们认为，我们看涨油价预测的风险偏向上行，这种上涨的催化剂从需求转向供应方面</b>.虽然我们今年的看涨观点是由我们远高于共识的需求增长预测推动的，但情况已不再如此，因为(1)自5月份以来全球石油需求大幅反弹，目前从95 MB/d反弹至98 mb/d目前接近我们夏末预测的99 mb/d，大部分已实现，(2)IEA预计夏季需求峰值类似，以及(3)新兴市场疫苗引领的需求提振只会通过2022年第一季度逐渐显现。</blockquote></p><p> A shift in market focus to the supply will make increasingly evident that the industry’s costs have reset sharply higher, due to (1) poor accumulated returns of the past 5 years, (2) the inﬂationary impact of internalizing carbon emissions and (3) the rising uncertainty and pessimism on long-term oil demand.&nbsp;<b>As a result, we initiate a new trade recommendation to be long Dec-22 Brent forwards, currently trading at $67.06/bbl. This entry point is below our Dec-22 spot forecast of $75/bbl due to backwardation and further offers a proxy trade for a re-setting higher of the oil market’s marginal costs.</b></p><p><blockquote>市场焦点向供应的转移将越来越明显地表明，由于（1）过去5年的累计回报不佳，（2）碳排放内部化的通货膨胀影响，以及（3）长期石油需求的不确定性和悲观情绪上升。<b>因此，我们提出新的交易建议，做多12月22日布伦特原油期货，目前交易价格为67.06美元/桶。由于现货溢价，这一进场点低于我们12月22日75美元/桶的现货预测，并进一步为重新设定更高的石油市场边际成本提供了代理交易。</b></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Goldman Sees Oil Price Spiking On UAE/OPEC+ Deal<blockquote>高盛预计阿联酋/OPEC+协议导致油价飙升</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nGoldman Sees Oil Price Spiking On UAE/OPEC+ Deal<blockquote>高盛预计阿联酋/OPEC+协议导致油价飙升</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">zerohedge</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-15 10:41</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Oil suffered its biggest drop in 2.5 months today after the EIA reported that in the latest week, gasoline demand in the US unexpectedly tumbled by 760,000 barrels a day from the record 10 million barrels a day a week, to 9.28 million barrels a day to get back to levels in late June.</p><p><blockquote>EIA报告称，最近一周，美国汽油需求意外下降76万桶/日，从创纪录的每周1000万桶/日降至928万桶/日，油价今天遭遇2.5个月来最大跌幅。回到六月下旬的水平。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/96a51307958cb16bc6d3451c273dc614\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"662\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">While algos focused on the sharp drop, what they ignored was that the number was largely meaningless, since the reporting week included July 5, a day off for Americans. Additionally, the EIA’s estimate, known as product supplied, is derived from other data rather than being a direct measurement of consumption. Since that method often leads to erratic numbers, some observers prefer to use the 4-week rolling average. That measure was 9.485 million barrels a day, which was about equal to the same week in 2019</p><p><blockquote>虽然algos关注的是大幅下降，但他们忽略了这个数字在很大程度上毫无意义，因为报告周包括7月5日，这是美国人的休息日。此外，EIA的估计（称为产品供应量）来自其他数据，而不是直接衡量消费量。由于这种方法经常导致不稳定的数字，一些观察者更喜欢使用4周滚动平均值。该指标为948.5万桶/日，与2019年同周大致持平</blockquote></p><p> None of that mattered, however, as CTAs quickly joined in the selling frenzy and completely erasing the earlier jump on the far more important news of an OPEC+ deal.</p><p><blockquote>然而，这些都不重要，因为CTA很快加入了抛售狂潮，并完全抹去了早些时候因欧佩克+协议这一更重要的消息而出现的上涨。</blockquote></p><p> Just how important was the Reuters report that the UAE and Saudi Arabia are close to reaching a production agreement, one which sees both the higher baseline requested by the UAE (of 3.65 mb/d starting in April 2022) as well as an extension of the output agreement requested by Saudi (through December 2022). Important enough that in a note released late on Wednesday, Goldman said that the deal would remove the low-probability tail risks of potential price war, and \"<b>represents $2 to $4/bbl upside risk to our $80/bbl summer and $75/bbl 2022 Brent price forecasts.\"</b></p><p><blockquote>路透社报道阿联酋和沙特阿拉伯即将达成一项生产协议，这有多重要，该协议既包括阿联酋要求的更高基线（从2022年4月开始为3.65 mb/d），也包括延长产量沙特要求的产量协议（至2022年12月）。重要的是，高盛在周三晚些时候发布的一份报告中表示，该交易将消除潜在价格战的低概率尾部风险，并且“<b>我们夏季80美元/桶和2022年布伦特原油价格预测为75美元/桶，面临2至4美元/桶的上行风险。”</b></blockquote></p><p> In the note from Goldman commodity analysts Damien Courvalin and Jeff Currie, the two also write that the expected agreement “as the ﬁrst of likely four potential bullish supply catalysts over the coming month” that would more than offset higher North American production. Additionally, although some OPEC+ details remain uncertain, like August and September quotas or baselines of other countries, “these are of limited magnitude and importance to the global oil market outlook, which the bank continues to see as supportive of higher oil prices”</p><p><blockquote>高盛大宗商品分析师达米安·库尔瓦林(Damien Courvalin)和杰夫·柯里(Jeff Currie)在报告中还写道，预期的协议“是未来一个月四个潜在看涨供应催化剂中的第一个”，将足以抵消北美产量的增加。此外，尽管OPEC+的一些细节仍不确定，例如8月和9月的配额或其他国家的基线，但“这些对全球石油市场前景的规模和重要性有限，该行继续认为这支持油价上涨”</blockquote></p><p> Piling on the bullish cash, Courvalin writes that an OPEC+ deal that offers a higher baseline for the UAE, as well as an extension of output agreement through December 2022 - such as the one being contemplated -&nbsp; would be bullish relative to Goldman’s base case</p><p><blockquote>Courvalin写道，为阿联酋提供更高基线的OPEC+协议以及将产量协议延长至2022年12月（例如正在考虑的协议）相对于高盛的基本情况将是看涨的。</blockquote></p><p> And speaking of Goldman's forecasts, the bank had assumed a 500kb/d ramp-up starting in August as well as a gradually rising UAE baseline from 3.17m b/d to 3.3m b/d in August to 3.65m b/d by the end of 1Q 2022. As a result, such a deal would imply downside risk to its OPEC+ production forecast of 400k-600k b/d on average for 3Q 2021-1Q 2022, depending on whether the lack of August production hike is compensated for in September. Needless to say, that too is bullish for the price of oil... and yet one look at the collapse in oil prices today and one would be left shocked at just how dumb the algos have become.</p><p><blockquote>谈到高盛的预测，该行假设从8月份开始增产500kb/d，阿联酋的基线从8月份的317万b/d逐渐上升到330万b/d，到2022年第一季度末达到365万b/d。因此，这样的协议将意味着其2021年第三季度至2022年第一季度平均40万至60万桶/日的OPEC+产量预测面临下行风险，具体取决于8月份增产的不足是否在9月份得到弥补。不用说，这也对油价有利...然而，看看今天油价的暴跌，你会对算法变得多么愚蠢感到震惊。</blockquote></p><p> Finally, it's not just the UAE/OPEC+ deal that makes Goldman's commodities team hopeful - the bank’s other three potential bullish supply catalysts are listed as:-</p><p><blockquote>最后，不仅仅是阿联酋/OPEC+协议让高盛的大宗商品团队充满希望——该行的其他三个潜在看涨供应催化剂被列为：-</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Upcoming shale earnings season, which may reaffirm greater incentive toward returning cash to shareholders over production growth</li>  <li>That progress on the U.S. reaching an agreement with Iran has stalled, setting back the potential ramp up of exports</li>  <li>Bank’s view that consensus expectations for global production outside of North America and core-OPEC remain too optimistic</li> </ul> Below we excerpt from the full note:</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>即将到来的页岩油财报季，这可能会重申通过产量增长向股东返还现金的更大动力</li><li>美国与伊朗达成协议的进展停滞不前，阻碍了出口的潜在增长</li><li>银行认为，对北美和OPEC核心以外的全球产量的普遍预期仍然过于乐观</li></ul>下面我们摘录全文：</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <ul>  <li>The UAE and Saudi Arabia appear close to reaching a production agreement, with Reuters reporting progress towards a deal that would allow for both the higher baseline requested by the UAE (of 3.65 mb/d starting in April 2022) as well as an extension of the output agreement requested by Saudi (through December 2022).<b>We assume that the such a deal - if conﬁrmed - would likely come alongside a gradual 0.4 mb/d monthly ramp-up in production through December 2021, as all OPEC+ members had already supported this decision.</b></li>  <li>Such an agreement would help bridge the (modest) divide between both countries and<b>help remove the (low probability) OPEC+ tail risks of a potential price war or insufﬁcient production growth, as we expected.</b>While some details remain uncertain, like the August and September quotas or the baseline of other countries, these are of limited magnitude and importance to the global oil market outlook,<b>which we continue to see as supportive of higher oil prices.</b></li>  <li>Importantly,<b>such an OPEC+ agreement would be bullish relative to our base-case, as we had assumed (1) a 0.5 mb/d ramp-up starting in August as well as (2) a gradually rising UAE baseline from 3.17 mb/d to 3.3 mb/d in August to 3.65 mb/d by the end of 1Q22 (given its clear inequity).</b>As a result, a deal as described above would<b>imply downside risk to our OPEC+ production forecast of 0.4 to 0.6 mb/d on average for 3Q21-1Q22</b>(depending on whether the lack of August production hike is compensated for in September).</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/47c75c93814aad90865576eeb1666992\" tg-width=\"651\" tg-height=\"527\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><u><b>All else equal, this would represent $2 to $4/bbl upside risk to our $80/bbl summer and $75/bbl 2022 Brent price forecasts.</b></u>As a result,&nbsp;<b>we believe that risks to our bullish oil price forecasts are skewed to the upside, with the catalyst for such a move higher shifting from the demand to the supply side</b>. While our bullish view this year had been driven by our well above consensus demand growth forecast, this is no longer the case with (1) the sharp rebound in global oil demand that has taken place since May, from 95 to 98 mb/d currently and near our 99 mb/d end of summer forecast, mostly played out, with (2) the IEA expecting similar peak summer demand, and with (3) the EM vaccine led demand uplift set to only play out gradually through 1Q22.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>阿联酋和沙特阿拉伯似乎即将达成一项生产协议，路透社报道了一项协议的进展，该协议将允许阿联酋要求的更高基线（从2022年4月开始为365万桶/日）以及延长沙特要求的产量协议（至2022年12月）。<b>我们假设，这样的协议（如果得到确认）可能会伴随着到2021年12月每月产量逐步增加40万桶/日，因为所有OPEC+成员国都已经支持这一决定。</b></li><li>这样的协议将有助于弥合两国之间的（适度）分歧<b>正如我们预期的那样，有助于消除潜在价格战或产量增长不足的（低概率）OPEC+尾部风险。</b>虽然一些细节仍然不确定，如8月和9月的配额或其他国家的基准，但这些对全球石油市场前景的规模和重要性有限，<b>我们继续认为这支持油价上涨。</b></li><li>重要的是，<b>相对于我们的基本情况，这样的OPEC+协议将是看涨的，因为我们假设（1）从8月份开始增加0.5 mb/d，以及（2）阿联酋基线从3.17 mb/d逐渐上升到8月份的3.3 mb/d，到2022年第一季度结束时达到3.65 mb/d（鉴于其明显的不平等）。</b>因此，上述交易将<b>这意味着我们对2021年第三季度-2022年第一季度平均0.4至0.6 mb/d的OPEC+产量预测存在下行风险</b>（取决于8月份增产的不足是否在9月份得到弥补）。</li></ul><u><b>在其他条件相同的情况下，这将意味着我们夏季80美元/桶和2022年75美元/桶布伦特价格预测的2至4美元/桶的上行风险。</b></u>结果，<b>我们认为，我们看涨油价预测的风险偏向上行，这种上涨的催化剂从需求转向供应方面</b>.虽然我们今年的看涨观点是由我们远高于共识的需求增长预测推动的，但情况已不再如此，因为(1)自5月份以来全球石油需求大幅反弹，目前从95 MB/d反弹至98 mb/d目前接近我们夏末预测的99 mb/d，大部分已实现，(2)IEA预计夏季需求峰值类似，以及(3)新兴市场疫苗引领的需求提振只会通过2022年第一季度逐渐显现。</blockquote></p><p> A shift in market focus to the supply will make increasingly evident that the industry’s costs have reset sharply higher, due to (1) poor accumulated returns of the past 5 years, (2) the inﬂationary impact of internalizing carbon emissions and (3) the rising uncertainty and pessimism on long-term oil demand.&nbsp;<b>As a result, we initiate a new trade recommendation to be long Dec-22 Brent forwards, currently trading at $67.06/bbl. This entry point is below our Dec-22 spot forecast of $75/bbl due to backwardation and further offers a proxy trade for a re-setting higher of the oil market’s marginal costs.</b></p><p><blockquote>市场焦点向供应的转移将越来越明显地表明，由于（1）过去5年的累计回报不佳，（2）碳排放内部化的通货膨胀影响，以及（3）长期石油需求的不确定性和悲观情绪上升。<b>因此，我们提出新的交易建议，做多12月22日布伦特原油期货，目前交易价格为67.06美元/桶。由于现货溢价，这一进场点低于我们12月22日75美元/桶的现货预测，并进一步为重新设定更高的石油市场边际成本提供了代理交易。</b></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/goldman-sees-oil-price-spiking-uaeopec-deal\">zerohedge</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/goldman-sees-oil-price-spiking-uaeopec-deal","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1122758076","content_text":"Oil suffered its biggest drop in 2.5 months today after the EIA reported that in the latest week, gasoline demand in the US unexpectedly tumbled by 760,000 barrels a day from the record 10 million barrels a day a week, to 9.28 million barrels a day to get back to levels in late June.\nWhile algos focused on the sharp drop, what they ignored was that the number was largely meaningless, since the reporting week included July 5, a day off for Americans. Additionally, the EIA’s estimate, known as product supplied, is derived from other data rather than being a direct measurement of consumption. Since that method often leads to erratic numbers, some observers prefer to use the 4-week rolling average. That measure was 9.485 million barrels a day, which was about equal to the same week in 2019\nNone of that mattered, however, as CTAs quickly joined in the selling frenzy and completely erasing the earlier jump on the far more important news of an OPEC+ deal.\nJust how important was the Reuters report that the UAE and Saudi Arabia are close to reaching a production agreement, one which sees both the higher baseline requested by the UAE (of 3.65 mb/d starting in April 2022) as well as an extension of the output agreement requested by Saudi (through December 2022). Important enough that in a note released late on Wednesday, Goldman said that the deal would remove the low-probability tail risks of potential price war, and \"represents $2 to $4/bbl upside risk to our $80/bbl summer and $75/bbl 2022 Brent price forecasts.\"\nIn the note from Goldman commodity analysts Damien Courvalin and Jeff Currie, the two also write that the expected agreement “as the ﬁrst of likely four potential bullish supply catalysts over the coming month” that would more than offset higher North American production. Additionally, although some OPEC+ details remain uncertain, like August and September quotas or baselines of other countries, “these are of limited magnitude and importance to the global oil market outlook, which the bank continues to see as supportive of higher oil prices”\nPiling on the bullish cash, Courvalin writes that an OPEC+ deal that offers a higher baseline for the UAE, as well as an extension of output agreement through December 2022 - such as the one being contemplated -  would be bullish relative to Goldman’s base case\nAnd speaking of Goldman's forecasts, the bank had assumed a 500kb/d ramp-up starting in August as well as a gradually rising UAE baseline from 3.17m b/d to 3.3m b/d in August to 3.65m b/d by the end of 1Q 2022. As a result, such a deal would imply downside risk to its OPEC+ production forecast of 400k-600k b/d on average for 3Q 2021-1Q 2022, depending on whether the lack of August production hike is compensated for in September. Needless to say, that too is bullish for the price of oil... and yet one look at the collapse in oil prices today and one would be left shocked at just how dumb the algos have become.\nFinally, it's not just the UAE/OPEC+ deal that makes Goldman's commodities team hopeful - the bank’s other three potential bullish supply catalysts are listed as:-\n\nUpcoming shale earnings season, which may reaffirm greater incentive toward returning cash to shareholders over production growth\nThat progress on the U.S. reaching an agreement with Iran has stalled, setting back the potential ramp up of exports\nBank’s view that consensus expectations for global production outside of North America and core-OPEC remain too optimistic\n\nBelow we excerpt from the full note:\n\nThe UAE and Saudi Arabia appear close to reaching a production agreement, with Reuters reporting progress towards a deal that would allow for both the higher baseline requested by the UAE (of 3.65 mb/d starting in April 2022) as well as an extension of the output agreement requested by Saudi (through December 2022).We assume that the such a deal - if conﬁrmed - would likely come alongside a gradual 0.4 mb/d monthly ramp-up in production through December 2021, as all OPEC+ members had already supported this decision.\nSuch an agreement would help bridge the (modest) divide between both countries andhelp remove the (low probability) OPEC+ tail risks of a potential price war or insufﬁcient production growth, as we expected.While some details remain uncertain, like the August and September quotas or the baseline of other countries, these are of limited magnitude and importance to the global oil market outlook,which we continue to see as supportive of higher oil prices.\nImportantly,such an OPEC+ agreement would be bullish relative to our base-case, as we had assumed (1) a 0.5 mb/d ramp-up starting in August as well as (2) a gradually rising UAE baseline from 3.17 mb/d to 3.3 mb/d in August to 3.65 mb/d by the end of 1Q22 (given its clear inequity).As a result, a deal as described above wouldimply downside risk to our OPEC+ production forecast of 0.4 to 0.6 mb/d on average for 3Q21-1Q22(depending on whether the lack of August production hike is compensated for in September).\n\nAll else equal, this would represent $2 to $4/bbl upside risk to our $80/bbl summer and $75/bbl 2022 Brent price forecasts.As a result, we believe that risks to our bullish oil price forecasts are skewed to the upside, with the catalyst for such a move higher shifting from the demand to the supply side. While our bullish view this year had been driven by our well above consensus demand growth forecast, this is no longer the case with (1) the sharp rebound in global oil demand that has taken place since May, from 95 to 98 mb/d currently and near our 99 mb/d end of summer forecast, mostly played out, with (2) the IEA expecting similar peak summer demand, and with (3) the EM vaccine led demand uplift set to only play out gradually through 1Q22.\nA shift in market focus to the supply will make increasingly evident that the industry’s costs have reset sharply higher, due to (1) poor accumulated returns of the past 5 years, (2) the inﬂationary impact of internalizing carbon emissions and (3) the rising uncertainty and pessimism on long-term oil demand. As a result, we initiate a new trade recommendation to be long Dec-22 Brent forwards, currently trading at $67.06/bbl. This entry point is below our Dec-22 spot forecast of $75/bbl due to backwardation and further offers a proxy trade for a re-setting higher of the oil market’s marginal costs.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"BZmain":0.9,"CLmain":0.9,"MCLmain":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1974,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":161363867,"gmtCreate":1623905553659,"gmtModify":1634026035465,"author":{"id":"3580280937765956","authorId":"3580280937765956","name":"ShuJie","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fab78f17f563d835249358a8d127785c","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3580280937765956","idStr":"3580280937765956"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ya DraftKings is sth good to look at","listText":"Ya DraftKings is sth good to look at","text":"Ya DraftKings is sth good to look at","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/161363867","repostId":"2143794095","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":558,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":109087526,"gmtCreate":1619655004465,"gmtModify":1634211027773,"author":{"id":"3580280937765956","authorId":"3580280937765956","name":"ShuJie","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fab78f17f563d835249358a8d127785c","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3580280937765956","idStr":"3580280937765956"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"To put into watchlist! Good to know what he’sholding hehe","listText":"To put into watchlist! Good to know what he’sholding hehe","text":"To put into watchlist! Good to know what he’sholding hehe","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/109087526","repostId":"1104198438","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":413,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":858434937,"gmtCreate":1635113984181,"gmtModify":1635113984527,"author":{"id":"3580280937765956","authorId":"3580280937765956","name":"ShuJie","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fab78f17f563d835249358a8d127785c","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3580280937765956","idStr":"3580280937765956"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Alphabets!","listText":"Alphabets!","text":"Alphabets!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/858434937","repostId":"2177448205","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3348,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":154439086,"gmtCreate":1625537802645,"gmtModify":1633939859766,"author":{"id":"3580280937765956","authorId":"3580280937765956","name":"ShuJie","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fab78f17f563d835249358a8d127785c","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3580280937765956","idStr":"3580280937765956"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Wow I shall share&nbsp;with my friend","listText":"Wow I shall share&nbsp;with my friend","text":"Wow I shall share with my friend","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/154439086","repostId":"2149466331","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":698,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}