YeeYen
2021-07-03
Like and comment pls
Taiwan Semiconductor Is Ripe for Entry: Here's How I'm Playing It<blockquote>台积电进入的时机已经成熟:我是这样玩的</blockquote>
免责声明:上述内容仅代表发帖人个人观点,不构成本平台的任何投资建议。
分享至
微信
复制链接
精彩评论
我们需要你的真知灼见来填补这片空白
打开APP,发表看法
APP内打开
发表看法
4
7
{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"detailType":1,"isChannel":false,"data":{"magic":2,"id":152622729,"tweetId":"152622729","gmtCreate":1625289340561,"gmtModify":1633941685916,"author":{"id":3583571765550095,"idStr":"3583571765550095","authorId":3583571765550095,"authorIdStr":"3583571765550095","name":"YeeYen","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7fc7a5493cb04486fac45783a2b3e8a6","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"fanSize":26,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body><p>Like and comment pls </p></body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body><p>Like and comment pls </p></body></html>","text":"Like and comment pls","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/152622729","repostId":1104835932,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1104835932","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1625276444,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1104835932?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-03 09:40","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Taiwan Semiconductor Is Ripe for Entry: Here's How I'm Playing It<blockquote>台积电进入的时机已经成熟:我是这样玩的</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1104835932","media":"The Street","summary":"I've been hot for the semis for a good while now because of the widely covered shortages that are creating significant pricing power.Thinking about... Taiwan Semiconductor . Taiwan Semiconductor reports Q2 financial performance in two weeks, on July 16th. Currently, Wall Street is looking for EPS of $0.93, without much divergence in opinion. This name is not as highly followed across the community of analysts. I can only find four analysts that have gone as far as to make quarterly projections,","content":"<p> <i>I've been hot for the semis for a good while now because of the widely covered shortages that are creating significant pricing power.</i> Thinking about... Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) . Taiwan Semiconductor reports Q2 financial performance in two weeks, on July 16th. Currently, Wall Street is looking for EPS of $0.93, without much divergence in opinion. This name is not as highly followed across the community of analysts. I can only find four analysts that have gone as far as to make quarterly projections, six that have made annual projections, and just two that have really stuck their necks out and stated a price target at any point in the past six months.</p><p><blockquote><i>我对半决赛很感兴趣已经有一段时间了,因为广泛覆盖的短缺创造了巨大的定价权。</i>思考...台积电(TSM)。台积电将于7月16日公布两周后的第二季度财务业绩。目前,华尔街预计每股收益为0.93美元,意见没有太大分歧。这个名字在整个分析师群体中并没有得到很高的关注。我只能找到四位分析师做出了季度预测,六位分析师做出了年度预测,只有两位分析师在过去六个月的任何时候真正竭尽全力并提出了价格目标。</blockquote></p><p> The range of EPS expectations for Q2 EPS for TSM, across those four analysts is just $0.91 to $0.95. Wall Street is looking for approximately $13.2 billion in revenue generation for the quarter, which would be year over year sales growth of about 27%. This would be an acceleration in sales growth for a second consecutive quarter.</p><p><blockquote>这四位分析师对TSM第二季度每股收益的预期范围仅为0.91美元至0.95美元。华尔街预计本季度收入约为132亿美元,销售额同比增长约27%。这将是销售额连续第二个季度加速增长。</blockquote></p><p> <b>This Week</b></p><p><blockquote><b>本周</b></blockquote></p><p> It was Tuesday. DigiTimes reports that Taiwan Semiconductor is expected to record record revenues for June, due to shipments of iPhones showing up in the data. Apparently, reduced purchases by client Bitmain, as China bans Bitcoin mining had not taken the toll on TSM sales as some had expected. Demand for 5nm and 7nm processors had offset the loss of that mining business as the firm shipped chips for Apple's (AAPL) smartphones in time to appear in June's numbers. The expectation is that the firm stays on course for 20% sales growth for the fiscal year, and that June could be flat from May (which is a good thing).</p><p><blockquote>那天是星期二。DigiTimes报道称,由于数据中显示了iPhones的出货量,台积电预计将在6月份创下创纪录的收入。显然,由于中国禁止比特币矿业,客户比特大陆的购买量减少并没有像一些人预期的那样对TSM的销售造成影响。对5纳米和7纳米处理器的需求抵消了采矿业务的损失,因为该公司及时为苹果(AAPL)智能手机发货芯片,并出现在6月份的数据中。预计该公司本财年销售额将保持20%的增长,6月份可能与5月份持平(这是一件好事)。</blockquote></p><p> Early this (Friday) morning, news broke that Apple and Intel (INTC) will be the first customers to test TSM's 3nm production technology, which if all goes well, deploys toward the back half of 2022. Nikkei Asia reports that Intel is planning at least two projects to design CPUs for notebooks and data centers around the new 3nm chips.</p><p><blockquote>本周五凌晨,有消息称苹果和英特尔(INTC)将成为首批测试TSM 3nm生产技术的客户,如果一切顺利,该技术将于2022年下半年部署。《日经亚洲》报道称,英特尔正在计划至少两个项目,围绕新的3纳米芯片为笔记本电脑和数据中心设计CPU。</blockquote></p><p> Just a quick tutorial. TSM's 5nm chips are the most advanced chips available and if you have an iPhone 12, you have one of these chips. TSM is indicating that the new 3nm chips will offer a 10% to 15% boost to computing performance compared to the current 5nm product, while also reducing power consumption by 25% to 30%.</p><p><blockquote>只是一个快速教程。TSM的5纳米芯片是最先进的芯片,如果你有iPhone 12,你就有其中一个芯片。TSM表示,与当前的5纳米产品相比,新的3纳米芯片将使计算性能提高10%至15%,同时功耗还将降低25%至30%。</blockquote></p><p> As an aside, Intel announced the delay of the Sapphire Rapids data center processor earlier this week. While this is seen around Wall Street as yet another chance for Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) , and even Nvidia (NVDA) , to tackle even more market share away from the lumbering giant, but also makes at least this investor wonder just how Intel thinks they are going to get to a point anytime soon where they can compete with the likes of Taiwan Semiconductor as a global foundry to other chip designers.</p><p><blockquote>顺便说一句,英特尔本周早些时候宣布了Sapphire Rapids数据中心处理器的延迟。虽然这被华尔街视为Advanced Micro Devices(AMD)甚至英伟达(NVDA)从这家笨重的巨头手中夺取更多市场份额的又一次机会,但这也至少让这位投资者想知道英特尔如何认为他们很快就会达到可以与台积电等公司竞争的地步,成为其他芯片设计公司的全球代工厂。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Wall Street</b></p><p><blockquote><b>华尔街</b></blockquote></p><p> Of those few analysts that I mentioned who actually cover the name, only one reacted to this news. Susquehanna's five star (rated at TipRanks) analyst Mehdi Hosseini upgraded the name from \"Negative\" to \"Neutral\", while upping his target price from $85 to $105. The only other analyst with a recent target price is Jim Kelleher of Argus Research (also five stars). Kelleher initiated the name a week earlier as a \"Buy\" with a $150 target.</p><p><blockquote>在我提到的几位实际报道该名字的分析师中,只有一位对此消息做出了反应。Susquehanna的五星级(TipRanks评级)分析师Mehdi Hosseini将该名称从“负面”上调至“中性”,同时将目标价从85美元上调至105美元。最近唯一有目标价的分析师是Argus Research的Jim Kelleher(也是五星)。凯莱赫(Kelleher)一周前首次将该名称定为“买入”,目标价为150美元。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Chart</b></p><p><blockquote><b>图表</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/19c41db815e4b2cbbc0f31979123e544\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"530\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Readers will see that in late April, these shares managed to turn a descending triangle (which is a bearish pattern) into a flat basing pattern without ever allowing the triangle to close. Since bottoming, TSM has retaken both the 21 day EMA and the 50 day SMA, using the former as support on weakness just yesterday.</p><p><blockquote>读者会看到,在4月下旬,这些股票成功地将下降三角形(这是一种看跌模式)转变为平基模式,而没有让三角形闭合。自触底以来,TSM已重新夺回21日均线和50日均线,并将前者作为昨天疲软的支撑。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Plan</b></p><p><blockquote><b>计划</b></blockquote></p><p> Regular followers well know that I have been hot for the semis for a good while now, in spite of, or rather because of the widely covered shortages that are creating significant pricing power.</p><p><blockquote>经常关注的人都知道,我对半决赛的渴望已经有一段时间了,尽管,或者更确切地说,是因为广泛报道的短缺创造了巨大的定价权。</blockquote></p><p> I am already long AMD, and Marvell Technology (MRVL) , both of whom have been solid investments. I am long Micron (MU) , which looked good until this week. I am long Nvidia which has simply been epic.</p><p><blockquote>我已经做多AMD和Marvell Technology(MRVL),这两家公司都是可靠的投资。我是长微米(MU),直到本周看起来还不错。我做多英伟达,这简直是史诗般的。</blockquote></p><p> I am also long semiconductor equipment names... Applied Materials (AMAT) , and Brooks Automation (BRKS) , two names that have been good, and meh, respectively. I probably have room for a large foundry that will probably make short work of Intel (my opinion) once Intel tries to move in on their business.</p><p><blockquote>我也是长半导体设备名……应用材料公司(AMAT)和布鲁克斯自动化公司(BRKS),这两个名字一直很好,分别是meh。我可能有一个大型代工厂的空间,一旦英特尔试图进入他们的业务,他们可能会很快与英特尔合作(我的观点)。</blockquote></p><p> I think TSM is ripe for entry, perhaps to the tune of 1/8 of intended position size. I would expect to add a second tranche of 1/8 at either a test of the 21 day EMA or a retaking of the $122 level, which is our pivot. Our target price upon taking that pivot will be $144, while for now (after purchasing these shares), I will go with a panic point of $110 (8% discount to initial entry).</p><p><blockquote>我认为TSM进入的时机已经成熟,也许是预期头寸规模的1/8。我预计在测试21日均线或夺回122美元水平时增加第二笔1/8,这是我们的支点。我们采取这一支点后的目标价将为144美元,而目前(购买这些股票后),我将选择110美元的恐慌点(初始入场折扣8%)。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1610613172068","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Taiwan Semiconductor Is Ripe for Entry: Here's How I'm Playing It<blockquote>台积电进入的时机已经成熟:我是这样玩的</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTaiwan Semiconductor Is Ripe for Entry: Here's How I'm Playing It<blockquote>台积电进入的时机已经成熟:我是这样玩的</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">The Street</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-03 09:40</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p> <i>I've been hot for the semis for a good while now because of the widely covered shortages that are creating significant pricing power.</i> Thinking about... Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) . Taiwan Semiconductor reports Q2 financial performance in two weeks, on July 16th. Currently, Wall Street is looking for EPS of $0.93, without much divergence in opinion. This name is not as highly followed across the community of analysts. I can only find four analysts that have gone as far as to make quarterly projections, six that have made annual projections, and just two that have really stuck their necks out and stated a price target at any point in the past six months.</p><p><blockquote><i>我对半决赛很感兴趣已经有一段时间了,因为广泛覆盖的短缺创造了巨大的定价权。</i>思考...台积电(TSM)。台积电将于7月16日公布两周后的第二季度财务业绩。目前,华尔街预计每股收益为0.93美元,意见没有太大分歧。这个名字在整个分析师群体中并没有得到很高的关注。我只能找到四位分析师做出了季度预测,六位分析师做出了年度预测,只有两位分析师在过去六个月的任何时候真正竭尽全力并提出了价格目标。</blockquote></p><p> The range of EPS expectations for Q2 EPS for TSM, across those four analysts is just $0.91 to $0.95. Wall Street is looking for approximately $13.2 billion in revenue generation for the quarter, which would be year over year sales growth of about 27%. This would be an acceleration in sales growth for a second consecutive quarter.</p><p><blockquote>这四位分析师对TSM第二季度每股收益的预期范围仅为0.91美元至0.95美元。华尔街预计本季度收入约为132亿美元,销售额同比增长约27%。这将是销售额连续第二个季度加速增长。</blockquote></p><p> <b>This Week</b></p><p><blockquote><b>本周</b></blockquote></p><p> It was Tuesday. DigiTimes reports that Taiwan Semiconductor is expected to record record revenues for June, due to shipments of iPhones showing up in the data. Apparently, reduced purchases by client Bitmain, as China bans Bitcoin mining had not taken the toll on TSM sales as some had expected. Demand for 5nm and 7nm processors had offset the loss of that mining business as the firm shipped chips for Apple's (AAPL) smartphones in time to appear in June's numbers. The expectation is that the firm stays on course for 20% sales growth for the fiscal year, and that June could be flat from May (which is a good thing).</p><p><blockquote>那天是星期二。DigiTimes报道称,由于数据中显示了iPhones的出货量,台积电预计将在6月份创下创纪录的收入。显然,由于中国禁止比特币矿业,客户比特大陆的购买量减少并没有像一些人预期的那样对TSM的销售造成影响。对5纳米和7纳米处理器的需求抵消了采矿业务的损失,因为该公司及时为苹果(AAPL)智能手机发货芯片,并出现在6月份的数据中。预计该公司本财年销售额将保持20%的增长,6月份可能与5月份持平(这是一件好事)。</blockquote></p><p> Early this (Friday) morning, news broke that Apple and Intel (INTC) will be the first customers to test TSM's 3nm production technology, which if all goes well, deploys toward the back half of 2022. Nikkei Asia reports that Intel is planning at least two projects to design CPUs for notebooks and data centers around the new 3nm chips.</p><p><blockquote>本周五凌晨,有消息称苹果和英特尔(INTC)将成为首批测试TSM 3nm生产技术的客户,如果一切顺利,该技术将于2022年下半年部署。《日经亚洲》报道称,英特尔正在计划至少两个项目,围绕新的3纳米芯片为笔记本电脑和数据中心设计CPU。</blockquote></p><p> Just a quick tutorial. TSM's 5nm chips are the most advanced chips available and if you have an iPhone 12, you have one of these chips. TSM is indicating that the new 3nm chips will offer a 10% to 15% boost to computing performance compared to the current 5nm product, while also reducing power consumption by 25% to 30%.</p><p><blockquote>只是一个快速教程。TSM的5纳米芯片是最先进的芯片,如果你有iPhone 12,你就有其中一个芯片。TSM表示,与当前的5纳米产品相比,新的3纳米芯片将使计算性能提高10%至15%,同时功耗还将降低25%至30%。</blockquote></p><p> As an aside, Intel announced the delay of the Sapphire Rapids data center processor earlier this week. While this is seen around Wall Street as yet another chance for Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) , and even Nvidia (NVDA) , to tackle even more market share away from the lumbering giant, but also makes at least this investor wonder just how Intel thinks they are going to get to a point anytime soon where they can compete with the likes of Taiwan Semiconductor as a global foundry to other chip designers.</p><p><blockquote>顺便说一句,英特尔本周早些时候宣布了Sapphire Rapids数据中心处理器的延迟。虽然这被华尔街视为Advanced Micro Devices(AMD)甚至英伟达(NVDA)从这家笨重的巨头手中夺取更多市场份额的又一次机会,但这也至少让这位投资者想知道英特尔如何认为他们很快就会达到可以与台积电等公司竞争的地步,成为其他芯片设计公司的全球代工厂。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Wall Street</b></p><p><blockquote><b>华尔街</b></blockquote></p><p> Of those few analysts that I mentioned who actually cover the name, only one reacted to this news. Susquehanna's five star (rated at TipRanks) analyst Mehdi Hosseini upgraded the name from \"Negative\" to \"Neutral\", while upping his target price from $85 to $105. The only other analyst with a recent target price is Jim Kelleher of Argus Research (also five stars). Kelleher initiated the name a week earlier as a \"Buy\" with a $150 target.</p><p><blockquote>在我提到的几位实际报道该名字的分析师中,只有一位对此消息做出了反应。Susquehanna的五星级(TipRanks评级)分析师Mehdi Hosseini将该名称从“负面”上调至“中性”,同时将目标价从85美元上调至105美元。最近唯一有目标价的分析师是Argus Research的Jim Kelleher(也是五星)。凯莱赫(Kelleher)一周前首次将该名称定为“买入”,目标价为150美元。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Chart</b></p><p><blockquote><b>图表</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/19c41db815e4b2cbbc0f31979123e544\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"530\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Readers will see that in late April, these shares managed to turn a descending triangle (which is a bearish pattern) into a flat basing pattern without ever allowing the triangle to close. Since bottoming, TSM has retaken both the 21 day EMA and the 50 day SMA, using the former as support on weakness just yesterday.</p><p><blockquote>读者会看到,在4月下旬,这些股票成功地将下降三角形(这是一种看跌模式)转变为平基模式,而没有让三角形闭合。自触底以来,TSM已重新夺回21日均线和50日均线,并将前者作为昨天疲软的支撑。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Plan</b></p><p><blockquote><b>计划</b></blockquote></p><p> Regular followers well know that I have been hot for the semis for a good while now, in spite of, or rather because of the widely covered shortages that are creating significant pricing power.</p><p><blockquote>经常关注的人都知道,我对半决赛的渴望已经有一段时间了,尽管,或者更确切地说,是因为广泛报道的短缺创造了巨大的定价权。</blockquote></p><p> I am already long AMD, and Marvell Technology (MRVL) , both of whom have been solid investments. I am long Micron (MU) , which looked good until this week. I am long Nvidia which has simply been epic.</p><p><blockquote>我已经做多AMD和Marvell Technology(MRVL),这两家公司都是可靠的投资。我是长微米(MU),直到本周看起来还不错。我做多英伟达,这简直是史诗般的。</blockquote></p><p> I am also long semiconductor equipment names... Applied Materials (AMAT) , and Brooks Automation (BRKS) , two names that have been good, and meh, respectively. I probably have room for a large foundry that will probably make short work of Intel (my opinion) once Intel tries to move in on their business.</p><p><blockquote>我也是长半导体设备名……应用材料公司(AMAT)和布鲁克斯自动化公司(BRKS),这两个名字一直很好,分别是meh。我可能有一个大型代工厂的空间,一旦英特尔试图进入他们的业务,他们可能会很快与英特尔合作(我的观点)。</blockquote></p><p> I think TSM is ripe for entry, perhaps to the tune of 1/8 of intended position size. I would expect to add a second tranche of 1/8 at either a test of the 21 day EMA or a retaking of the $122 level, which is our pivot. Our target price upon taking that pivot will be $144, while for now (after purchasing these shares), I will go with a panic point of $110 (8% discount to initial entry).</p><p><blockquote>我认为TSM进入的时机已经成熟,也许是预期头寸规模的1/8。我预计在测试21日均线或夺回122美元水平时增加第二笔1/8,这是我们的支点。我们采取这一支点后的目标价将为144美元,而目前(购买这些股票后),我将选择110美元的恐慌点(初始入场折扣8%)。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源:<a href=\"https://realmoney.thestreet.com/investing/taiwan-semiconductor-is-ripe-for-entry-here-s-how-i-m-playing-it-15702133?puc=yahoo&cm_ven=YAHOO\">The Street</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验,我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSM":"台积电","MU":"美光科技","AMD":"美国超微公司","AAPL":"苹果","INTC":"英特尔","MRVL":"迈威尔科技","AMAT":"应用材料","NVDA":"英伟达"},"source_url":"https://realmoney.thestreet.com/investing/taiwan-semiconductor-is-ripe-for-entry-here-s-how-i-m-playing-it-15702133?puc=yahoo&cm_ven=YAHOO","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1104835932","content_text":"I've been hot for the semis for a good while now because of the widely covered shortages that are creating significant pricing power.\n\nThinking about... Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) . Taiwan Semiconductor reports Q2 financial performance in two weeks, on July 16th. Currently, Wall Street is looking for EPS of $0.93, without much divergence in opinion. This name is not as highly followed across the community of analysts. I can only find four analysts that have gone as far as to make quarterly projections, six that have made annual projections, and just two that have really stuck their necks out and stated a price target at any point in the past six months.\nThe range of EPS expectations for Q2 EPS for TSM, across those four analysts is just $0.91 to $0.95. Wall Street is looking for approximately $13.2 billion in revenue generation for the quarter, which would be year over year sales growth of about 27%. This would be an acceleration in sales growth for a second consecutive quarter.\nThis Week\nIt was Tuesday. DigiTimes reports that Taiwan Semiconductor is expected to record record revenues for June, due to shipments of iPhones showing up in the data. Apparently, reduced purchases by client Bitmain, as China bans Bitcoin mining had not taken the toll on TSM sales as some had expected. Demand for 5nm and 7nm processors had offset the loss of that mining business as the firm shipped chips for Apple's (AAPL) smartphones in time to appear in June's numbers. The expectation is that the firm stays on course for 20% sales growth for the fiscal year, and that June could be flat from May (which is a good thing).\nEarly this (Friday) morning, news broke that Apple and Intel (INTC) will be the first customers to test TSM's 3nm production technology, which if all goes well, deploys toward the back half of 2022. Nikkei Asia reports that Intel is planning at least two projects to design CPUs for notebooks and data centers around the new 3nm chips.\nJust a quick tutorial. TSM's 5nm chips are the most advanced chips available and if you have an iPhone 12, you have one of these chips. TSM is indicating that the new 3nm chips will offer a 10% to 15% boost to computing performance compared to the current 5nm product, while also reducing power consumption by 25% to 30%.\nAs an aside, Intel announced the delay of the Sapphire Rapids data center processor earlier this week. While this is seen around Wall Street as yet another chance for Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) , and even Nvidia (NVDA) , to tackle even more market share away from the lumbering giant, but also makes at least this investor wonder just how Intel thinks they are going to get to a point anytime soon where they can compete with the likes of Taiwan Semiconductor as a global foundry to other chip designers.\nWall Street\nOf those few analysts that I mentioned who actually cover the name, only one reacted to this news. Susquehanna's five star (rated at TipRanks) analyst Mehdi Hosseini upgraded the name from \"Negative\" to \"Neutral\", while upping his target price from $85 to $105. The only other analyst with a recent target price is Jim Kelleher of Argus Research (also five stars). Kelleher initiated the name a week earlier as a \"Buy\" with a $150 target.\nThe Chart\n\nReaders will see that in late April, these shares managed to turn a descending triangle (which is a bearish pattern) into a flat basing pattern without ever allowing the triangle to close. Since bottoming, TSM has retaken both the 21 day EMA and the 50 day SMA, using the former as support on weakness just yesterday.\nThe Plan\nRegular followers well know that I have been hot for the semis for a good while now, in spite of, or rather because of the widely covered shortages that are creating significant pricing power.\nI am already long AMD, and Marvell Technology (MRVL) , both of whom have been solid investments. I am long Micron (MU) , which looked good until this week. I am long Nvidia which has simply been epic.\nI am also long semiconductor equipment names... Applied Materials (AMAT) , and Brooks Automation (BRKS) , two names that have been good, and meh, respectively. I probably have room for a large foundry that will probably make short work of Intel (my opinion) once Intel tries to move in on their business.\nI think TSM is ripe for entry, perhaps to the tune of 1/8 of intended position size. I would expect to add a second tranche of 1/8 at either a test of the 21 day EMA or a retaking of the $122 level, which is our pivot. Our target price upon taking that pivot will be $144, while for now (after purchasing these shares), I will go with a panic point of $110 (8% discount to initial entry).","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"BRKS":0.9,"INTC":0.9,"NVDA":0.9,"AMD":0.9,"TSM":0.9,"AMAT":0.9,"MRVL":0.9,"MU":0.9,"AAPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1474,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":17,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/152622729"}
精彩评论