Wayn3z
2021-07-02
Lol
AMC: 'Record' Weekend Is Terrible News For The Stock<blockquote>AMC：“创纪录”的周末对该股来说是个坏消息</blockquote>
免责声明：上述内容仅代表发帖人个人观点，不构成本平台的任何投资建议。
分享至
微信
复制链接
精彩评论
我们需要你的真知灼见来填补这片空白
打开APP，发表看法
APP内打开
发表看法
2
{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"detailType":1,"isChannel":false,"data":{"magic":2,"id":156847771,"tweetId":"156847771","gmtCreate":1625214343493,"gmtModify":1631891787093,"author":{"id":3575618194913040,"idStr":"3575618194913040","authorId":3575618194913040,"authorIdStr":"3575618194913040","name":"Wayn3z","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/44c23dbfb76421c9eff622fdc7e532e8","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"fanSize":1,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body><p>Lol</p></body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body><p>Lol</p></body></html>","text":"Lol","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/156847771","repostId":1121860286,"repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1121860286","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1625212613,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1121860286?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-02 15:56","market":"us","language":"en","title":"AMC: 'Record' Weekend Is Terrible News For The Stock<blockquote>AMC：“创纪录”的周末对该股来说是个坏消息</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1121860286","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nAttendance of 2 million is terrible for AMC.\nThe company needs to more than double attendan","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>Attendance of 2 million is terrible for AMC.</li> <li>The company needs to more than double attendance to return to 2019 - when it still lost money.</li> <li>Someday shares will fall 90% from this point.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/798af80ddf8412e6beabc5bf60891141\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"576\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>RichLegg/E+ via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>200万的上座率对于AMC来说是可怕的。</li><li>该公司需要将出勤率增加一倍以上才能回到2019年——当时它仍然亏损。</li><li>总有一天，股价将从这一点下跌90%。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>RichLegg/E+来自盖蒂图片社</span></p></blockquote></p><p> I'm pretty bad at predicting what makes AMC Entertainment(NYSE:AMC)go up or down in the short term. After all, I said to short it at $26/share (Short Squeeze Presents Many Ways to Make Money) and then explained why there was no fundamental news behind the run up at $58/share (Recent Events are Just Re-Runs). But I'm pretty good at reading press releases, news articles and financial statements, and it's clear from recent news just how big a hole AMC has to climb out of on an operating basis.</p><p><blockquote>我不太擅长预测AMC院线（纽约证券交易所股票代码：AMC）短期内上涨或下跌的原因。毕竟，我说在26美元/股做空它（轧空提供了许多赚钱的方法），然后解释了为什么在58美元/股的上涨背后没有基本面消息（最近的事件只是重新运行）。但我很擅长阅读新闻稿、新闻文章和财务报表，从最近的新闻中可以清楚地看出，AMC在运营基础上必须爬出多大的漏洞。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Attendance at theaters is terrible and AMC will continue to lose money</b></p><p><blockquote><b>影院上座率惨淡AMC将继续亏损</b></blockquote></p><p> On Monday, AMC put out a press release touting its \"post-reopening record\" of 2 million attendees and highlighting the biggest box office draw \"Fast and the Furious 9\" which grossed $70 million:</p><p><blockquote>周一，AMC发布了一份新闻稿，宣传其200万观众的“重新开放后记录”，并强调了票房最高的《速度与激情9》，票房收入为7000万美元：</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c6c54d7e40d29666bf8b78f554f233e9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"83\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1b9f8c597b1ba417c6b478358caa9cc7\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"62\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source: Businesswire</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：Businesswire</span></p></blockquote></p><p> For reasons that should be clear to all,these numbers are terrible. As you can see from the company's earnings release showing results for 2018 and 2019:</p><p><blockquote>出于所有人都应该清楚的原因，这些数字是可怕的。从该公司2018年和2019年业绩的财报中可以看出：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b604e216de76939782f86a868e40889d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"412\"><span>Source: AMC Entertainment</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：AMC院线</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The pace for attendance in 2019 was 250 million in the US, or 4.8 million customers per week and in 2018 it was 4.9 million customers. So it's very nice to learn that 2 million customers is the largest number of people to see a movie at AMC since COVID-19 led to lockdowns, but the real numbers mean show attendance is down almost 60% from 2018 and 2019.</p><p><blockquote>2019年美国的出席率为2.5亿，即每周480万客户，2018年为490万客户。因此，很高兴得知200万顾客是自新冠肺炎导致封锁以来在AMC看电影的人数最多的一次，但实际数字意味着放映上座率比2018年和2019年下降了近60%。</blockquote></p><p> As you can see above, 2018 and 2019 were not great years for the company, either. AMC lost $149 million in the second of two years and made $110 million in the first one. At the end of 2019, the stock price of a money-losing AMC was just over $7/share. Bullish shareholders (\"Apes\" as they style themselves) are excited about the move of more than 700% to this week's price of over $55/share:</p><p><blockquote>正如您在上面看到的，2018年和2019年对该公司来说也不是很好的年份。AMC在两年的第二年亏损1.49亿美元，第一年盈利1.1亿美元。2019年底，一家亏损的AMC股价刚刚超过7美元/股。看涨的股东（他们自称为“猿”）对本周超过55美元/股的价格上涨超过700%感到兴奋：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1ce4607284db107f9758f4735a99ccd3\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"331\"><span>Source: Koyfin</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Koyfin</span></p></blockquote></p><p> But what many of them don't seem to be paying attention to is the market capitalization. As you can see in the chart above, increasing the share count from 100 million to almost 480 million shares outstanding in the last year has pushed the market cap far higher leading to an increase of almost 3,900%.</p><p><blockquote>但他们中的许多人似乎没有注意到的是市值。如上图所示，去年流通股数量从1亿股增加到近4.8亿股，推动市值大幅上涨，涨幅近3,900%。</blockquote></p><p> This kind of securities analysis is not \"optional\" and shareholders are now paying almost 40 times as much to own this company as they did at the end of the last full year before COVID-19.</p><p><blockquote>这种证券分析不是“可选的”，股东现在为拥有这家公司支付的费用几乎是COVID-19之前最后一个全年年底的40倍。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Not all MemeStocks are created Equal</b></p><p><blockquote><b>并非所有模因股票都是平等的</b></blockquote></p><p> The first \"memestock\" to capture everyone's attention this year was GameStop (GME). After a number of years of declining sales, a new class of investors such as Chewy founder Ryan took interest in the company and eventually took over the board of directors. At the same time this change in leadership was underway, a number of hedge funds who had been short the stock began losing money at an alarming clip.</p><p><blockquote>今年第一个引起大家注意的“模因股”是游戏驿站（GME）。经过多年的销售额下降后，Chewy创始人Ryan等新一代投资者对该公司产生了兴趣，并最终接管了董事会。在领导层变动的同时，一些做空该股的对冲基金开始以惊人的速度亏损。</blockquote></p><p> In the popular imagination, the rise in GameStop shares was a win for retail investors sharing information on Reddit such as the now-famous \"Roaring Kitty,\" but the evidence is the biggest winners were in fact other hedge funds (see \"This Hedge Fund Made $700 million on GameStop\"). Since Cohen took over the company, he is shifting its business model to online sales and hiring executives from leading companies such as Amazon(NASDAQ:AMZN).</p><p><blockquote>在大众的想象中，游戏驿站股价的上涨是在Reddit上分享信息的散户投资者的胜利，例如现在著名的“咆哮的小猫”，但证据是最大的赢家实际上是其他对冲基金（见“这家对冲基金在游戏驿站赚了7亿美元”）。自从科恩接管该公司以来，他正在将其商业模式转向在线销售，并从亚马逊（纳斯达克：AMZN）等领先公司聘请高管。</blockquote></p><p> None of the kinds of positive things that are happening at GameStop are even close to being talked about at AMC. AMC has had thesame CEO since 2015. There is no change in business model, and now that he has cash from equity sales, thebest ideahe's come up with is just buying more movie theaters! Meanwhile, many of the most successful companies on the planet such as Disney(NYSE:DIS), Netflix(NASDAQ:NFLX)and Amazon are all developing streaming services to entertain customers at home - which keeps them from going to the movies.</p><p><blockquote>游戏驿站发生的任何积极的事情都没有在AMC上被谈论过。自2015年以来，AMC一直担任同一位首席执行官。商业模式没有改变，现在他从股权出售中获得了现金，他想出的最好的主意就是购买更多的电影院！与此同时，地球上许多最成功的公司，例如Disney（纽约证券交易所股票代码：DIS）、Netflix（纳斯达克股票代码：NFLX）和Amazon都在开发流媒体服务来娱乐在家的客户，这使得他们无法去看电影。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Likewise, the entire growth of the online gaming industry with services such as Twitch from Amazon and Microsoft(NASDAQ:MSFT)with Xbox is another substantial competitor getting in the way of customers going to the movies. All this is to say that the future is not getting brighter for AMC.</p><p><blockquote>同样，在线游戏行业的整体增长（例如Amazon的Twitch和微软（纳斯达克：MSFT）的Xbox）是另一个阻碍客户看电影的重要竞争对手。这一切都表明，AMC的未来并没有变得更加光明。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Conclusion</b></p><p><blockquote><b>结论</b></blockquote></p><p> Maybe AMC's share price will double next week. Maybe it will get cut in half. I don't know and neither does anyone else. But one month, one quarter or one year from now, shareholders will own a money-losing company in a fading industry at an extremely high valuation.</p><p><blockquote>也许下周AMC的股价会翻倍。也许它会被切成两半。我不知道，其他人也不知道。但从现在起一个月、一个季度或一年后，股东们将以极高的估值拥有一家处于衰落行业的亏损公司。</blockquote></p><p> I'm short shares in this stock because one day in the not-too-distant future, those shareholders will start selling, and then once the stock goes down regularly I expect them to start selling shares rapidly. Ultimately, I expect the shares to go back to the level they were at the end of 2019 - only when that happens, they won't be $7/share anymore. They'll be closer to $2.00.</p><p><blockquote>我做空这只股票，因为在不久的将来有一天，这些股东将开始出售，然后一旦股票定期下跌，我预计他们将开始迅速出售股票。最终，我预计股价将回到2019年底的水平——只是当这种情况发生时，股价将不再是7美元/股。它们将接近2美元。</blockquote></p><p> Good luck to all!</p><p><blockquote>祝大家好运！</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>AMC: 'Record' Weekend Is Terrible News For The Stock<blockquote>AMC：“创纪录”的周末对该股来说是个坏消息</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAMC: 'Record' Weekend Is Terrible News For The Stock<blockquote>AMC：“创纪录”的周末对该股来说是个坏消息</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-02 15:56</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>Attendance of 2 million is terrible for AMC.</li> <li>The company needs to more than double attendance to return to 2019 - when it still lost money.</li> <li>Someday shares will fall 90% from this point.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/798af80ddf8412e6beabc5bf60891141\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"576\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>RichLegg/E+ via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>200万的上座率对于AMC来说是可怕的。</li><li>该公司需要将出勤率增加一倍以上才能回到2019年——当时它仍然亏损。</li><li>总有一天，股价将从这一点下跌90%。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>RichLegg/E+来自盖蒂图片社</span></p></blockquote></p><p> I'm pretty bad at predicting what makes AMC Entertainment(NYSE:AMC)go up or down in the short term. After all, I said to short it at $26/share (Short Squeeze Presents Many Ways to Make Money) and then explained why there was no fundamental news behind the run up at $58/share (Recent Events are Just Re-Runs). But I'm pretty good at reading press releases, news articles and financial statements, and it's clear from recent news just how big a hole AMC has to climb out of on an operating basis.</p><p><blockquote>我不太擅长预测AMC院线（纽约证券交易所股票代码：AMC）短期内上涨或下跌的原因。毕竟，我说在26美元/股做空它（轧空提供了许多赚钱的方法），然后解释了为什么在58美元/股的上涨背后没有基本面消息（最近的事件只是重新运行）。但我很擅长阅读新闻稿、新闻文章和财务报表，从最近的新闻中可以清楚地看出，AMC在运营基础上必须爬出多大的漏洞。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Attendance at theaters is terrible and AMC will continue to lose money</b></p><p><blockquote><b>影院上座率惨淡AMC将继续亏损</b></blockquote></p><p> On Monday, AMC put out a press release touting its \"post-reopening record\" of 2 million attendees and highlighting the biggest box office draw \"Fast and the Furious 9\" which grossed $70 million:</p><p><blockquote>周一，AMC发布了一份新闻稿，宣传其200万观众的“重新开放后记录”，并强调了票房最高的《速度与激情9》，票房收入为7000万美元：</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c6c54d7e40d29666bf8b78f554f233e9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"83\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1b9f8c597b1ba417c6b478358caa9cc7\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"62\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source: Businesswire</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：Businesswire</span></p></blockquote></p><p> For reasons that should be clear to all,these numbers are terrible. As you can see from the company's earnings release showing results for 2018 and 2019:</p><p><blockquote>出于所有人都应该清楚的原因，这些数字是可怕的。从该公司2018年和2019年业绩的财报中可以看出：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b604e216de76939782f86a868e40889d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"412\"><span>Source: AMC Entertainment</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：AMC院线</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The pace for attendance in 2019 was 250 million in the US, or 4.8 million customers per week and in 2018 it was 4.9 million customers. So it's very nice to learn that 2 million customers is the largest number of people to see a movie at AMC since COVID-19 led to lockdowns, but the real numbers mean show attendance is down almost 60% from 2018 and 2019.</p><p><blockquote>2019年美国的出席率为2.5亿，即每周480万客户，2018年为490万客户。因此，很高兴得知200万顾客是自新冠肺炎导致封锁以来在AMC看电影的人数最多的一次，但实际数字意味着放映上座率比2018年和2019年下降了近60%。</blockquote></p><p> As you can see above, 2018 and 2019 were not great years for the company, either. AMC lost $149 million in the second of two years and made $110 million in the first one. At the end of 2019, the stock price of a money-losing AMC was just over $7/share. Bullish shareholders (\"Apes\" as they style themselves) are excited about the move of more than 700% to this week's price of over $55/share:</p><p><blockquote>正如您在上面看到的，2018年和2019年对该公司来说也不是很好的年份。AMC在两年的第二年亏损1.49亿美元，第一年盈利1.1亿美元。2019年底，一家亏损的AMC股价刚刚超过7美元/股。看涨的股东（他们自称为“猿”）对本周超过55美元/股的价格上涨超过700%感到兴奋：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1ce4607284db107f9758f4735a99ccd3\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"331\"><span>Source: Koyfin</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Koyfin</span></p></blockquote></p><p> But what many of them don't seem to be paying attention to is the market capitalization. As you can see in the chart above, increasing the share count from 100 million to almost 480 million shares outstanding in the last year has pushed the market cap far higher leading to an increase of almost 3,900%.</p><p><blockquote>但他们中的许多人似乎没有注意到的是市值。如上图所示，去年流通股数量从1亿股增加到近4.8亿股，推动市值大幅上涨，涨幅近3,900%。</blockquote></p><p> This kind of securities analysis is not \"optional\" and shareholders are now paying almost 40 times as much to own this company as they did at the end of the last full year before COVID-19.</p><p><blockquote>这种证券分析不是“可选的”，股东现在为拥有这家公司支付的费用几乎是COVID-19之前最后一个全年年底的40倍。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Not all MemeStocks are created Equal</b></p><p><blockquote><b>并非所有模因股票都是平等的</b></blockquote></p><p> The first \"memestock\" to capture everyone's attention this year was GameStop (GME). After a number of years of declining sales, a new class of investors such as Chewy founder Ryan took interest in the company and eventually took over the board of directors. At the same time this change in leadership was underway, a number of hedge funds who had been short the stock began losing money at an alarming clip.</p><p><blockquote>今年第一个引起大家注意的“模因股”是游戏驿站（GME）。经过多年的销售额下降后，Chewy创始人Ryan等新一代投资者对该公司产生了兴趣，并最终接管了董事会。在领导层变动的同时，一些做空该股的对冲基金开始以惊人的速度亏损。</blockquote></p><p> In the popular imagination, the rise in GameStop shares was a win for retail investors sharing information on Reddit such as the now-famous \"Roaring Kitty,\" but the evidence is the biggest winners were in fact other hedge funds (see \"This Hedge Fund Made $700 million on GameStop\"). Since Cohen took over the company, he is shifting its business model to online sales and hiring executives from leading companies such as Amazon(NASDAQ:AMZN).</p><p><blockquote>在大众的想象中，游戏驿站股价的上涨是在Reddit上分享信息的散户投资者的胜利，例如现在著名的“咆哮的小猫”，但证据是最大的赢家实际上是其他对冲基金（见“这家对冲基金在游戏驿站赚了7亿美元”）。自从科恩接管该公司以来，他正在将其商业模式转向在线销售，并从亚马逊（纳斯达克：AMZN）等领先公司聘请高管。</blockquote></p><p> None of the kinds of positive things that are happening at GameStop are even close to being talked about at AMC. AMC has had thesame CEO since 2015. There is no change in business model, and now that he has cash from equity sales, thebest ideahe's come up with is just buying more movie theaters! Meanwhile, many of the most successful companies on the planet such as Disney(NYSE:DIS), Netflix(NASDAQ:NFLX)and Amazon are all developing streaming services to entertain customers at home - which keeps them from going to the movies.</p><p><blockquote>游戏驿站发生的任何积极的事情都没有在AMC上被谈论过。自2015年以来，AMC一直担任同一位首席执行官。商业模式没有改变，现在他从股权出售中获得了现金，他想出的最好的主意就是购买更多的电影院！与此同时，地球上许多最成功的公司，例如Disney（纽约证券交易所股票代码：DIS）、Netflix（纳斯达克股票代码：NFLX）和Amazon都在开发流媒体服务来娱乐在家的客户，这使得他们无法去看电影。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Likewise, the entire growth of the online gaming industry with services such as Twitch from Amazon and Microsoft(NASDAQ:MSFT)with Xbox is another substantial competitor getting in the way of customers going to the movies. All this is to say that the future is not getting brighter for AMC.</p><p><blockquote>同样，在线游戏行业的整体增长（例如Amazon的Twitch和微软（纳斯达克：MSFT）的Xbox）是另一个阻碍客户看电影的重要竞争对手。这一切都表明，AMC的未来并没有变得更加光明。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Conclusion</b></p><p><blockquote><b>结论</b></blockquote></p><p> Maybe AMC's share price will double next week. Maybe it will get cut in half. I don't know and neither does anyone else. But one month, one quarter or one year from now, shareholders will own a money-losing company in a fading industry at an extremely high valuation.</p><p><blockquote>也许下周AMC的股价会翻倍。也许它会被切成两半。我不知道，其他人也不知道。但从现在起一个月、一个季度或一年后，股东们将以极高的估值拥有一家处于衰落行业的亏损公司。</blockquote></p><p> I'm short shares in this stock because one day in the not-too-distant future, those shareholders will start selling, and then once the stock goes down regularly I expect them to start selling shares rapidly. Ultimately, I expect the shares to go back to the level they were at the end of 2019 - only when that happens, they won't be $7/share anymore. They'll be closer to $2.00.</p><p><blockquote>我做空这只股票，因为在不久的将来有一天，这些股东将开始出售，然后一旦股票定期下跌，我预计他们将开始迅速出售股票。最终，我预计股价将回到2019年底的水平——只是当这种情况发生时，股价将不再是7美元/股。它们将接近2美元。</blockquote></p><p> Good luck to all!</p><p><blockquote>祝大家好运！</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4437461-amc-record-weekend-is-terrible-news-for-the-stock\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AMC":"AMC院线"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4437461-amc-record-weekend-is-terrible-news-for-the-stock","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1121860286","content_text":"Summary\n\nAttendance of 2 million is terrible for AMC.\nThe company needs to more than double attendance to return to 2019 - when it still lost money.\nSomeday shares will fall 90% from this point.\n\nRichLegg/E+ via Getty Images\nI'm pretty bad at predicting what makes AMC Entertainment(NYSE:AMC)go up or down in the short term. After all, I said to short it at $26/share (Short Squeeze Presents Many Ways to Make Money) and then explained why there was no fundamental news behind the run up at $58/share (Recent Events are Just Re-Runs). But I'm pretty good at reading press releases, news articles and financial statements, and it's clear from recent news just how big a hole AMC has to climb out of on an operating basis.\nAttendance at theaters is terrible and AMC will continue to lose money\nOn Monday, AMC put out a press release touting its \"post-reopening record\" of 2 million attendees and highlighting the biggest box office draw \"Fast and the Furious 9\" which grossed $70 million:\n\nSource: Businesswire\nFor reasons that should be clear to all,these numbers are terrible. As you can see from the company's earnings release showing results for 2018 and 2019:\nSource: AMC Entertainment\nThe pace for attendance in 2019 was 250 million in the US, or 4.8 million customers per week and in 2018 it was 4.9 million customers. So it's very nice to learn that 2 million customers is the largest number of people to see a movie at AMC since COVID-19 led to lockdowns, but the real numbers mean show attendance is down almost 60% from 2018 and 2019.\nAs you can see above, 2018 and 2019 were not great years for the company, either. AMC lost $149 million in the second of two years and made $110 million in the first one. At the end of 2019, the stock price of a money-losing AMC was just over $7/share. Bullish shareholders (\"Apes\" as they style themselves) are excited about the move of more than 700% to this week's price of over $55/share:\nSource: Koyfin\nBut what many of them don't seem to be paying attention to is the market capitalization. As you can see in the chart above, increasing the share count from 100 million to almost 480 million shares outstanding in the last year has pushed the market cap far higher leading to an increase of almost 3,900%.\nThis kind of securities analysis is not \"optional\" and shareholders are now paying almost 40 times as much to own this company as they did at the end of the last full year before COVID-19.\nNot all MemeStocks are created Equal\nThe first \"memestock\" to capture everyone's attention this year was GameStop (GME). After a number of years of declining sales, a new class of investors such as Chewy founder Ryan took interest in the company and eventually took over the board of directors. At the same time this change in leadership was underway, a number of hedge funds who had been short the stock began losing money at an alarming clip.\nIn the popular imagination, the rise in GameStop shares was a win for retail investors sharing information on Reddit such as the now-famous \"Roaring Kitty,\" but the evidence is the biggest winners were in fact other hedge funds (see \"This Hedge Fund Made $700 million on GameStop\"). Since Cohen took over the company, he is shifting its business model to online sales and hiring executives from leading companies such as Amazon(NASDAQ:AMZN).\nNone of the kinds of positive things that are happening at GameStop are even close to being talked about at AMC. AMC has had thesame CEO since 2015. There is no change in business model, and now that he has cash from equity sales, thebest ideahe's come up with is just buying more movie theaters! Meanwhile, many of the most successful companies on the planet such as Disney(NYSE:DIS), Netflix(NASDAQ:NFLX)and Amazon are all developing streaming services to entertain customers at home - which keeps them from going to the movies.\nLikewise, the entire growth of the online gaming industry with services such as Twitch from Amazon and Microsoft(NASDAQ:MSFT)with Xbox is another substantial competitor getting in the way of customers going to the movies. All this is to say that the future is not getting brighter for AMC.\nConclusion\nMaybe AMC's share price will double next week. Maybe it will get cut in half. I don't know and neither does anyone else. But one month, one quarter or one year from now, shareholders will own a money-losing company in a fading industry at an extremely high valuation.\nI'm short shares in this stock because one day in the not-too-distant future, those shareholders will start selling, and then once the stock goes down regularly I expect them to start selling shares rapidly. Ultimately, I expect the shares to go back to the level they were at the end of 2019 - only when that happens, they won't be $7/share anymore. They'll be closer to $2.00.\nGood luck to all!","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AMC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1541,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":3,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/156847771"}
精彩评论