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2021-07-20
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Even as Oil Plunges, Analysts Get More Bullish<blockquote>即使油价暴跌，分析师也变得更加乐观</blockquote>
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{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"detailType":1,"isChannel":false,"data":{"magic":2,"id":171517932,"tweetId":"171517932","gmtCreate":1626750181126,"gmtModify":1631893019801,"author":{"id":3579903139528819,"idStr":"3579903139528819","authorId":3579903139528819,"authorIdStr":"3579903139528819","name":"eddnesb","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7cb1a44cae788badb83f540b30835814","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"fanSize":10,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body><p>Nice</p></body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body><p>Nice</p></body></html>","text":"Nice","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/171517932","repostId":1124508742,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1124508742","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1626749922,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1124508742?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-20 10:58","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Even as Oil Plunges, Analysts Get More Bullish<blockquote>即使油价暴跌，分析师也变得更加乐观</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1124508742","media":"Barrons","summary":"Oil prices were falling hard on Monday, as investors fret about demand and see supply rising more qu","content":"<p>Oil prices were falling hard on Monday, as investors fret about demand and see supply rising more quickly following an OPEC deal to restore production.</p><p><blockquote>油价周一大幅下跌，原因是投资者担心需求，并看到欧佩克达成恢复生产协议后供应增长更快。</blockquote></p><p> Despite the drop, the current setup looks as if it could help U.S. shale producers as long as they don’t make the same mistakes they did in the past. In fact, in the past few days analysts have gotten more bullish on names like oil service company Halliburton(HAL) and producerOvintiv(OVV) even amid weakness in oil stocks.</p><p><blockquote>尽管有所下降，但目前的设置看起来可以帮助美国页岩油生产商，只要他们不犯过去犯过的同样的错误。事实上，在过去几天里，即使在石油股疲软的情况下，分析师也更加看好石油服务公司哈里伯顿(HAL)和生产商罗文蒂夫(OVV)等公司。</blockquote></p><p> Brent crude futures, the international benchmark, fell 6.1%, to $69.11 a barrel, the steepest drop since March. If they close at these levels, it would be the first time Brent has traded below $70 since May. West Texas Intermediate crude futures, the U.S. benchmark, fell 6.4%, to $67.24 a barrel, also on pace for their worst decline since March.</p><p><blockquote>国际基准布伦特原油期货下跌6.1%，至每桶69.11美元，为3月份以来的最大跌幅。如果收于这些水平，这将是布伦特原油自5月份以来首次跌破70美元。美国基准西德克萨斯中质原油期货下跌6.4%，至每桶67.24美元，也将创下3月份以来的最大跌幅。</blockquote></p><p> Oil has been rising all year as the vaccine rollout has slowed the spread of Covid-19 in much of the world and demand has rebounded. But the rise of the Delta variant is now worrying investors and causing stocks around the world to slide. If countries are forced to slow their reopenings and block international travel, oil demand is likely to drop.</p><p><blockquote>随着疫苗的推出减缓了Covid-19在世界大部分地区的传播，需求也有所反弹，油价全年都在上涨。但德尔塔变异毒株的崛起现在令投资者担忧，并导致全球股市下滑。如果各国被迫放慢重新开放速度并阻止国际旅行，石油需求可能会下降。</blockquote></p><p> As the demand picture worsens, supply looks ready to pick up — potentially leading to an imbalance that hurts prices. On Sunday, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies agreed to gradually restore the 5.8 million barrels per day in production that countries had been holding off the market. They will restore production by about 400,000 barrels a day every month until it is fully restored next year.</p><p><blockquote>随着需求状况恶化，供应看起来即将回升，这可能会导致失衡，从而损害价格。周日，石油输出国组织及其盟友同意逐步恢复各国一直在市场上按兵不动的580万桶/日的产量。他们将每月恢复约40万桶/日的产量，直到明年完全恢复。</blockquote></p><p> “The commodity rally isn’t over just yet, but it will probably take a big break here,” predicts Oanda analyst Edward Moya. “WTI crude’s fundamentals still support another massive move higher, it will just take another month or so to shake off the growing risk aversion theme.”</p><p><blockquote>Oanda分析师爱德华·莫亚(Edward Moya)预测：“大宗商品涨势尚未结束，但可能会出现重大突破。”“WTI原油的基本面仍然支持再次大幅走高，只需要再过一个月左右的时间就能摆脱日益增长的避险主题。”</blockquote></p><p> The market’s bearish reaction to the OPEC deal may be overblown, because the alternative would almost certainly have been worse. The deal had been delayed because Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates had disagreed about production quotas.</p><p><blockquote>市场对OPEC协议的看跌反应可能被夸大了，因为替代方案几乎肯定会更糟。由于沙特阿拉伯和阿拉伯联合酋长国在生产配额问题上存在分歧，该协议被推迟。</blockquote></p><p> The larger risk to the market had been that the two countries would split and that OPEC would be unable to hold together. In that scenario, more production could have quickly spilled into the market. “The deal will take away the tail risk in markets, particularly the oil equities, that UAE splits from OPEC/Saudi and we have a market share war,” wrote Paul Sankey of Sankey Research.</p><p><blockquote>市场面临的更大风险是两国将分裂，欧佩克将无法团结在一起。在这种情况下，更多的产量可能会迅速流入市场。桑基研究公司（Sankey Research）的保罗·桑基（Paul Sankey）写道：“该协议将消除市场（尤其是石油股）的尾部风险，即阿联酋从欧佩克/沙特分裂出去，我们将面临一场市场份额战。”</blockquote></p><p> Under the current deal, supply will remain relatively restrained and OPEC will retain its grip. Saudi Arabia has shown it wants prices to stay high, and will take action quickly to make sure that happens, as long as OPEC can hold together.</p><p><blockquote>根据目前的协议，供应将保持相对克制，欧佩克将保留其控制权。沙特阿拉伯已经表明，它希望油价保持高位，只要欧佩克能够团结一致，它将迅速采取行动确保这一情况发生。</blockquote></p><p> For oil producers, the current setup could still be profitable. The stocks of North American oil and gas producers had fallen 12% this month before Monday. Though they are up 50% for the year, they have still trailed the commodity itself by 25% since the start of 2020, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSTLW\">Morgan Stanley</a> analyst Devin McDermott notes. He believes there is “room for a further catch-up trade” as valuations remain at a 65% discount to the broader market, versus a historical average of 30%. For a decade, producers had drilled unprofitably, pursuing a corporate strategy to increase production even if it hurt profits. That has changed this year. In the first quarter, the group produced its highest free cash flow in more than a decade.</p><p><blockquote>对于石油生产商来说，目前的设置仍然是有利可图的。北美石油和天然气生产商的股票在周一之前本月已经下跌了12%。尽管今年上涨了50%，但自2020年初以来仍落后大宗商品本身25%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSTLW\">摩根士丹利</a>分析师德文·麦克德莫特指出。他认为，由于估值较大盘仍有65%的折扣，而历史平均水平为30%，因此存在“进一步追赶交易的空间”。十年来，生产商一直在无利可图的情况下钻探，追求增加产量的企业战略，即使这会损害利润。今年这种情况发生了变化。第一季度，该集团产生了十多年来最高的自由现金流。</blockquote></p><p> OPEC’s decision to continue holding production back in the months ahead is a sign that Saudi Arabia is willing to give up some market share to U.S. producers in exchange for higher prices, wrote Bank of America analyst Chase Mulvehill. That’s a “net positive for U.S. shale,” Mulvehill wrote, recommending that investors buy Halliburton to cash in on the dynamics. Halliburton is the top oil service firm in U.S. shale fields, and would benefit from more drilling and better prices. Mulvehill also upgradedNOV(NOV), an oil equipment provider, to Buy.</p><p><blockquote>美国银行分析师Chase Mulvehill写道，欧佩克决定在未来几个月继续抑制产量，这表明沙特阿拉伯愿意将一些市场份额让给美国生产商，以换取更高的价格。穆尔维希尔写道，这“对美国页岩油来说是一个净利好”，并建议投资者购买哈里伯顿公司以从这一动态中获利。哈里伯顿是美国页岩领域最大的石油服务公司，将受益于更多的钻探和更好的价格。Mulvehill还将石油设备提供商NOV(NOV)的评级上调至买入。</blockquote></p><p> McDermott of Morgan Stanley also picked several stocks to play current trends. He likesAPA(APA),Occidental Petroleum(OXY),ConocoPhillips(COP),<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FANG\">Diamondback Energy</a>(FANG), and Ovintiv . Credit Suisse also upgraded Ovintiv to Outperform on Monday.</p><p><blockquote>摩根士丹利的麦克德莫特也挑选了几只股票来迎合当前的趋势。他喜欢萨帕（APA）、西方石油（OXY）、康菲石油公司（COP）、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FANG\">响尾蛇能源公司</a>（方）和Ovintiv。瑞士信贷周一也将Ovintiv的评级上调至跑赢大盘。</blockquote></p><p> Among the biggest names, McDermott likesChevron(CVX) in the near-term because the company could reinstate its buyback when it reports second-quarter earnings. In the longer-term, he likesExxon Mobil(XOM), citing its “outsize rate of change on cash flow versus peers.”</p><p><blockquote>在大牌公司中，麦克德莫特短期内看好雪佛龙（CVX），因为该公司可能会在报告第二季度收益时恢复回购。从长远来看，他喜欢埃克森美孚（XOM），理由是其“与同行相比，现金流的变化率巨大”。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> The question now is whether U.S. companies can benefit from higher prices without making the same mistakes they’ve made before — namely, expanding into areas that aren’t as profitable in order to make a quick buck. Big oil companies will start issuing their earnings reports next week, and holding conference calls. Citigroup analyst Scott Gruber says that he will be looking for a change in tone from the major oil producers, as well as key shale producers likeEOG Resources(EOG).</p><p><blockquote>现在的问题是，美国公司是否可以从更高的价格中受益，而不会犯以前犯过的同样的错误——即为了赚快钱而扩张到利润不高的领域。大型石油公司将于下周开始发布收益报告，并在评级举行会议。花旗集团分析师斯科特·格鲁伯表示，他将寻求主要石油生产商以及EOG Resources(EOG)等主要页岩油生产商改变语气。</blockquote></p><p> “If the majors target a similar pace of growth at about 5%, then we believe little would change,” he wrote. “However, Exxon and Chevron have longer term growth targets in the mid teens for the Permian which should be monitored as a shift in this direction could impact public E&P strategy.”</p><p><blockquote>“如果各大巨头的目标是5%左右的类似增长速度，那么我们认为不会有什么变化，”他写道。“然而，埃克森美孚和雪佛龙为二叠纪制定了十几岁左右的长期增长目标，应该对此进行监控，因为这一方向的转变可能会影响公共勘探与生产战略。”</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Even as Oil Plunges, Analysts Get More Bullish<blockquote>即使油价暴跌，分析师也变得更加乐观</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nEven as Oil Plunges, Analysts Get More Bullish<blockquote>即使油价暴跌，分析师也变得更加乐观</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Barrons</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-20 10:58</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Oil prices were falling hard on Monday, as investors fret about demand and see supply rising more quickly following an OPEC deal to restore production.</p><p><blockquote>油价周一大幅下跌，原因是投资者担心需求，并看到欧佩克达成恢复生产协议后供应增长更快。</blockquote></p><p> Despite the drop, the current setup looks as if it could help U.S. shale producers as long as they don’t make the same mistakes they did in the past. In fact, in the past few days analysts have gotten more bullish on names like oil service company Halliburton(HAL) and producerOvintiv(OVV) even amid weakness in oil stocks.</p><p><blockquote>尽管有所下降，但目前的设置看起来可以帮助美国页岩油生产商，只要他们不犯过去犯过的同样的错误。事实上，在过去几天里，即使在石油股疲软的情况下，分析师也更加看好石油服务公司哈里伯顿(HAL)和生产商罗文蒂夫(OVV)等公司。</blockquote></p><p> Brent crude futures, the international benchmark, fell 6.1%, to $69.11 a barrel, the steepest drop since March. If they close at these levels, it would be the first time Brent has traded below $70 since May. West Texas Intermediate crude futures, the U.S. benchmark, fell 6.4%, to $67.24 a barrel, also on pace for their worst decline since March.</p><p><blockquote>国际基准布伦特原油期货下跌6.1%，至每桶69.11美元，为3月份以来的最大跌幅。如果收于这些水平，这将是布伦特原油自5月份以来首次跌破70美元。美国基准西德克萨斯中质原油期货下跌6.4%，至每桶67.24美元，也将创下3月份以来的最大跌幅。</blockquote></p><p> Oil has been rising all year as the vaccine rollout has slowed the spread of Covid-19 in much of the world and demand has rebounded. But the rise of the Delta variant is now worrying investors and causing stocks around the world to slide. If countries are forced to slow their reopenings and block international travel, oil demand is likely to drop.</p><p><blockquote>随着疫苗的推出减缓了Covid-19在世界大部分地区的传播，需求也有所反弹，油价全年都在上涨。但德尔塔变异毒株的崛起现在令投资者担忧，并导致全球股市下滑。如果各国被迫放慢重新开放速度并阻止国际旅行，石油需求可能会下降。</blockquote></p><p> As the demand picture worsens, supply looks ready to pick up — potentially leading to an imbalance that hurts prices. On Sunday, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies agreed to gradually restore the 5.8 million barrels per day in production that countries had been holding off the market. They will restore production by about 400,000 barrels a day every month until it is fully restored next year.</p><p><blockquote>随着需求状况恶化，供应看起来即将回升，这可能会导致失衡，从而损害价格。周日，石油输出国组织及其盟友同意逐步恢复各国一直在市场上按兵不动的580万桶/日的产量。他们将每月恢复约40万桶/日的产量，直到明年完全恢复。</blockquote></p><p> “The commodity rally isn’t over just yet, but it will probably take a big break here,” predicts Oanda analyst Edward Moya. “WTI crude’s fundamentals still support another massive move higher, it will just take another month or so to shake off the growing risk aversion theme.”</p><p><blockquote>Oanda分析师爱德华·莫亚(Edward Moya)预测：“大宗商品涨势尚未结束，但可能会出现重大突破。”“WTI原油的基本面仍然支持再次大幅走高，只需要再过一个月左右的时间就能摆脱日益增长的避险主题。”</blockquote></p><p> The market’s bearish reaction to the OPEC deal may be overblown, because the alternative would almost certainly have been worse. The deal had been delayed because Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates had disagreed about production quotas.</p><p><blockquote>市场对OPEC协议的看跌反应可能被夸大了，因为替代方案几乎肯定会更糟。由于沙特阿拉伯和阿拉伯联合酋长国在生产配额问题上存在分歧，该协议被推迟。</blockquote></p><p> The larger risk to the market had been that the two countries would split and that OPEC would be unable to hold together. In that scenario, more production could have quickly spilled into the market. “The deal will take away the tail risk in markets, particularly the oil equities, that UAE splits from OPEC/Saudi and we have a market share war,” wrote Paul Sankey of Sankey Research.</p><p><blockquote>市场面临的更大风险是两国将分裂，欧佩克将无法团结在一起。在这种情况下，更多的产量可能会迅速流入市场。桑基研究公司（Sankey Research）的保罗·桑基（Paul Sankey）写道：“该协议将消除市场（尤其是石油股）的尾部风险，即阿联酋从欧佩克/沙特分裂出去，我们将面临一场市场份额战。”</blockquote></p><p> Under the current deal, supply will remain relatively restrained and OPEC will retain its grip. Saudi Arabia has shown it wants prices to stay high, and will take action quickly to make sure that happens, as long as OPEC can hold together.</p><p><blockquote>根据目前的协议，供应将保持相对克制，欧佩克将保留其控制权。沙特阿拉伯已经表明，它希望油价保持高位，只要欧佩克能够团结一致，它将迅速采取行动确保这一情况发生。</blockquote></p><p> For oil producers, the current setup could still be profitable. The stocks of North American oil and gas producers had fallen 12% this month before Monday. Though they are up 50% for the year, they have still trailed the commodity itself by 25% since the start of 2020, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSTLW\">Morgan Stanley</a> analyst Devin McDermott notes. He believes there is “room for a further catch-up trade” as valuations remain at a 65% discount to the broader market, versus a historical average of 30%. For a decade, producers had drilled unprofitably, pursuing a corporate strategy to increase production even if it hurt profits. That has changed this year. In the first quarter, the group produced its highest free cash flow in more than a decade.</p><p><blockquote>对于石油生产商来说，目前的设置仍然是有利可图的。北美石油和天然气生产商的股票在周一之前本月已经下跌了12%。尽管今年上涨了50%，但自2020年初以来仍落后大宗商品本身25%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSTLW\">摩根士丹利</a>分析师德文·麦克德莫特指出。他认为，由于估值较大盘仍有65%的折扣，而历史平均水平为30%，因此存在“进一步追赶交易的空间”。十年来，生产商一直在无利可图的情况下钻探，追求增加产量的企业战略，即使这会损害利润。今年这种情况发生了变化。第一季度，该集团产生了十多年来最高的自由现金流。</blockquote></p><p> OPEC’s decision to continue holding production back in the months ahead is a sign that Saudi Arabia is willing to give up some market share to U.S. producers in exchange for higher prices, wrote Bank of America analyst Chase Mulvehill. That’s a “net positive for U.S. shale,” Mulvehill wrote, recommending that investors buy Halliburton to cash in on the dynamics. Halliburton is the top oil service firm in U.S. shale fields, and would benefit from more drilling and better prices. Mulvehill also upgradedNOV(NOV), an oil equipment provider, to Buy.</p><p><blockquote>美国银行分析师Chase Mulvehill写道，欧佩克决定在未来几个月继续抑制产量，这表明沙特阿拉伯愿意将一些市场份额让给美国生产商，以换取更高的价格。穆尔维希尔写道，这“对美国页岩油来说是一个净利好”，并建议投资者购买哈里伯顿公司以从这一动态中获利。哈里伯顿是美国页岩领域最大的石油服务公司，将受益于更多的钻探和更好的价格。Mulvehill还将石油设备提供商NOV(NOV)的评级上调至买入。</blockquote></p><p> McDermott of Morgan Stanley also picked several stocks to play current trends. He likesAPA(APA),Occidental Petroleum(OXY),ConocoPhillips(COP),<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FANG\">Diamondback Energy</a>(FANG), and Ovintiv . Credit Suisse also upgraded Ovintiv to Outperform on Monday.</p><p><blockquote>摩根士丹利的麦克德莫特也挑选了几只股票来迎合当前的趋势。他喜欢萨帕（APA）、西方石油（OXY）、康菲石油公司（COP）、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FANG\">响尾蛇能源公司</a>（方）和Ovintiv。瑞士信贷周一也将Ovintiv的评级上调至跑赢大盘。</blockquote></p><p> Among the biggest names, McDermott likesChevron(CVX) in the near-term because the company could reinstate its buyback when it reports second-quarter earnings. In the longer-term, he likesExxon Mobil(XOM), citing its “outsize rate of change on cash flow versus peers.”</p><p><blockquote>在大牌公司中，麦克德莫特短期内看好雪佛龙（CVX），因为该公司可能会在报告第二季度收益时恢复回购。从长远来看，他喜欢埃克森美孚（XOM），理由是其“与同行相比，现金流的变化率巨大”。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> The question now is whether U.S. companies can benefit from higher prices without making the same mistakes they’ve made before — namely, expanding into areas that aren’t as profitable in order to make a quick buck. Big oil companies will start issuing their earnings reports next week, and holding conference calls. Citigroup analyst Scott Gruber says that he will be looking for a change in tone from the major oil producers, as well as key shale producers likeEOG Resources(EOG).</p><p><blockquote>现在的问题是，美国公司是否可以从更高的价格中受益，而不会犯以前犯过的同样的错误——即为了赚快钱而扩张到利润不高的领域。大型石油公司将于下周开始发布收益报告，并在评级举行会议。花旗集团分析师斯科特·格鲁伯表示，他将寻求主要石油生产商以及EOG Resources(EOG)等主要页岩油生产商改变语气。</blockquote></p><p> “If the majors target a similar pace of growth at about 5%, then we believe little would change,” he wrote. “However, Exxon and Chevron have longer term growth targets in the mid teens for the Permian which should be monitored as a shift in this direction could impact public E&P strategy.”</p><p><blockquote>“如果各大巨头的目标是5%左右的类似增长速度，那么我们认为不会有什么变化，”他写道。“然而，埃克森美孚和雪佛龙为二叠纪制定了十几岁左右的长期增长目标，应该对此进行监控，因为这一方向的转变可能会影响公共勘探与生产战略。”</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/oil-prices-plunges-analysts-bullish-51626715267?siteid=yhoof2\">Barrons</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"APA":"阿帕契","OVV":"Ovintiv Inc.","FANG":"Diamondback Energy","OXY":"西方石油","COP":"康菲石油","08100":"名科国际","HAL":"哈里伯顿"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/oil-prices-plunges-analysts-bullish-51626715267?siteid=yhoof2","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1124508742","content_text":"Oil prices were falling hard on Monday, as investors fret about demand and see supply rising more quickly following an OPEC deal to restore production.\nDespite the drop, the current setup looks as if it could help U.S. shale producers as long as they don’t make the same mistakes they did in the past. In fact, in the past few days analysts have gotten more bullish on names like oil service company Halliburton(HAL) and producerOvintiv(OVV) even amid weakness in oil stocks.\nBrent crude futures, the international benchmark, fell 6.1%, to $69.11 a barrel, the steepest drop since March. If they close at these levels, it would be the first time Brent has traded below $70 since May. West Texas Intermediate crude futures, the U.S. benchmark, fell 6.4%, to $67.24 a barrel, also on pace for their worst decline since March.\nOil has been rising all year as the vaccine rollout has slowed the spread of Covid-19 in much of the world and demand has rebounded. But the rise of the Delta variant is now worrying investors and causing stocks around the world to slide. If countries are forced to slow their reopenings and block international travel, oil demand is likely to drop.\nAs the demand picture worsens, supply looks ready to pick up — potentially leading to an imbalance that hurts prices. On Sunday, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies agreed to gradually restore the 5.8 million barrels per day in production that countries had been holding off the market. They will restore production by about 400,000 barrels a day every month until it is fully restored next year.\n“The commodity rally isn’t over just yet, but it will probably take a big break here,” predicts Oanda analyst Edward Moya. “WTI crude’s fundamentals still support another massive move higher, it will just take another month or so to shake off the growing risk aversion theme.”\nThe market’s bearish reaction to the OPEC deal may be overblown, because the alternative would almost certainly have been worse. The deal had been delayed because Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates had disagreed about production quotas.\nThe larger risk to the market had been that the two countries would split and that OPEC would be unable to hold together. In that scenario, more production could have quickly spilled into the market. “The deal will take away the tail risk in markets, particularly the oil equities, that UAE splits from OPEC/Saudi and we have a market share war,” wrote Paul Sankey of Sankey Research.\nUnder the current deal, supply will remain relatively restrained and OPEC will retain its grip. Saudi Arabia has shown it wants prices to stay high, and will take action quickly to make sure that happens, as long as OPEC can hold together.\nFor oil producers, the current setup could still be profitable. The stocks of North American oil and gas producers had fallen 12% this month before Monday. Though they are up 50% for the year, they have still trailed the commodity itself by 25% since the start of 2020, Morgan Stanley analyst Devin McDermott notes. He believes there is “room for a further catch-up trade” as valuations remain at a 65% discount to the broader market, versus a historical average of 30%. For a decade, producers had drilled unprofitably, pursuing a corporate strategy to increase production even if it hurt profits. That has changed this year. In the first quarter, the group produced its highest free cash flow in more than a decade.\nOPEC’s decision to continue holding production back in the months ahead is a sign that Saudi Arabia is willing to give up some market share to U.S. producers in exchange for higher prices, wrote Bank of America analyst Chase Mulvehill. That’s a “net positive for U.S. shale,” Mulvehill wrote, recommending that investors buy Halliburton to cash in on the dynamics. Halliburton is the top oil service firm in U.S. shale fields, and would benefit from more drilling and better prices. Mulvehill also upgradedNOV(NOV), an oil equipment provider, to Buy.\nMcDermott of Morgan Stanley also picked several stocks to play current trends. He likesAPA(APA),Occidental Petroleum(OXY),ConocoPhillips(COP),Diamondback Energy(FANG), and Ovintiv . Credit Suisse also upgraded Ovintiv to Outperform on Monday.\nAmong the biggest names, McDermott likesChevron(CVX) in the near-term because the company could reinstate its buyback when it reports second-quarter earnings. In the longer-term, he likesExxon Mobil(XOM), citing its “outsize rate of change on cash flow versus peers.”\nThe question now is whether U.S. companies can benefit from higher prices without making the same mistakes they’ve made before — namely, expanding into areas that aren’t as profitable in order to make a quick buck. Big oil companies will start issuing their earnings reports next week, and holding conference calls. Citigroup analyst Scott Gruber says that he will be looking for a change in tone from the major oil producers, as well as key shale producers likeEOG Resources(EOG).\n“If the majors target a similar pace of growth at about 5%, then we believe little would change,” he wrote. “However, Exxon and Chevron have longer term growth targets in the mid teens for the Permian which should be monitored as a shift in this direction could impact public E&P strategy.”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"FANG":0.9,"08100":0.9,"OXY":0.9,"COP":0.9,"APA":0.9,"OVV":0.9,"HAL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":462,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":4,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/171517932"}
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