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2021-05-12

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Here Is The Heatmap From Today's "Eye-Popping" CPI Report<blockquote>这是今天“令人瞠目结舌”的CPI报告的热图</blockquote>

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Despite this historic increase, there is likely further upside in the pipeline with Manheim wholesale used cars rising another 8.2% in April, which builds on the 11% increase from Jan through March.</li><li>Household furnishings &amp; supplies also jumped 0.9% mom, with strength in other goods like recreation (+1.2%) and education &amp; communication (+3.1%).</li><li>Related to the reopening, lodging away from home rose 7.6% mom and transportation services jumped 2.9%.</li><li>In transportation services, airline fares leapt 10.2% mom and car &amp; truck rental leasing surged 16.2% mom, which follows an already impressive 11.7% gain in March.</li><li>The gains in lodging and airfares were both record highs,but prices remain 17.7% and 4.9% lower than pre-pandemic levels which means scope for further significant price increases in coming months.</li><li>In leasing, rental car companies have been impacted by the production cuts in the auto sector as well, which has forced them to build back their fleets with used cars as travel recovers.</li><li>Motor vehicle insurance prices also rose 2.5% mom, which could reflect more people getting back on the roads.</li></ul>Meanwhile, Lin argues that more persistent sources of inflation were tamer. Rents and OER both came in at 0.2% mom, which while in line with the recent trend, is about to change as we discussed in \"And Now Rents Are Soaring Too.\" Furthermore, as Joseph Carson notes, housing prices are up 18% in the past 12 months, a record increase andnine times the increase in owners' rent. \"The old CPI included house prices. Inserting house prices in place of non-market owner rents,reported inflation would have been twice the 4.2% gain.\"<blockquote><ul><li>首先是短缺问题，汽车价格环比上涨4.3%，尤其是二手车，环比上涨10.0%，创历史新高。尽管出现了历史性的增长，但曼海姆批发二手车在1月至3月11%增长的基础上，4月份可能会进一步上涨8.2%。</li><li>家居用品和用品也环比上涨0.9%，其他商品如娱乐（+1.2%）和教育及通讯（+3.1%）表现强劲。</li><li>与重新开放相关，外出住宿环比增长7.6%，交通服务增长2.9%。</li><li>在运输服务方面，机票价格环比上涨10.2%，汽车和卡车租赁价格环比飙升16.2%，此前3月份已经上涨了11.7%，令人印象深刻。</li><li>住宿和机票价格涨幅均创历史新高，但价格仍比大流行前的水平低17.7%和4.9%，这意味着未来几个月价格还有进一步大幅上涨的空间。</li><li>在租赁方面，汽车租赁公司也受到了汽车行业减产的影响，随着旅行的复苏，这迫使他们用二手车重建车队。</li><li>机动车辆保险价格也环比上涨2.5%，这可能反映出更多的人重新上路。</li></ul>与此同时，林认为，更持久的通胀来源更加温和。租金和OER环比均上涨0.2%，虽然与最近的趋势一致，但正如我们在“现在租金也在飙升”中讨论的那样，即将发生变化。此外，正如约瑟夫·卡森指出的那样，过去12个月房价上涨了18%，创下了历史新高业主租金涨幅的九倍。”旧的CPI包括房价。插入房价代替非市场业主租金，报告的通胀率将是4.2%涨幅的两倍.\"</blockquote>Meanwhile, medical care inflation was flat as the boost from stimulus around the turn of the year faded. Within healthcare, insurance was a big drag, contracting 1.0% mom. Professional services also inched down -0.2% mom, while hospital rose 0.3% mom.<blockquote>与此同时，随着年初刺激措施的提振消退，医疗保健通胀持平。在医疗保健领域，保险是一个很大的拖累，环比收缩1.0%。专业服务环比也小幅下降0.2%，而医院环比上涨0.3%。</blockquote>A visual summary of the data looks like this, first on a M/M basis, where the base effect has no impact as it is sequential...<blockquote>数据的可视化摘要如下所示，首先是在M/M的基础上，基数效应没有影响，因为它是连续的...</blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ae18376e78b4cca392db3a4a3ac3e393\" tg-width=\"1132\" tg-height=\"684\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">... and then the YoY CPI print which is less relevant due to the collapse last March.<blockquote>...然后是同比CPI数据，由于去年3月的崩溃，该数据不太相关。</blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/63fb5677bd66ef2a9464cd05c551b8b7\" tg-width=\"1139\" tg-height=\"647\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><blockquote></blockquote>So with inflation soaring, will anything change and will the Fed be forced to tighten sooner? According to BofA, not at all: \"the Fed is likely to continue to reiterate the message of transitory one-off price increases versus more persistent inflation, with this report a shining example of these dynamics. However, a key question going forward is whether this transitory strength will ultimately feed into the latter. This would be accomplished through rising long term inflation expectations—keep an eye out on survey- and market-based measures.\"<blockquote>那么，随着通胀飙升，情况会发生变化吗？美联储会被迫更快收紧吗？根据美国银行的说法，根本不是：“美联储可能会继续重申暂时的一次性价格上涨与更持久的通胀的信息，这份报告是这些动态的一个光辉例子。然而，未来的一个关键问题是，这种短暂的力量最终是否会流入后者。这将通过提高长期通胀预期来实现——密切关注调查和基于市场的措施。”</blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Here Is The Heatmap From Today's \"Eye-Popping\" CPI Report<blockquote>这是今天“令人瞠目结舌”的CPI报告的热图</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHere Is The Heatmap From Today's \"Eye-Popping\" CPI Report<blockquote>这是今天“令人瞠目结舌”的CPI报告的热图</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nzerohedge2021-05-12 23:35\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nAs BOfA economist Alexander Lin writes, the \"eye-popping\" April CPI report was a \"massive surprise\" as core CPI strongly rose 0.9% (0.92% unrounded) sequentially, which was the largest gain since 1981 and blew away consensus forecasts of 0.3% (for a full range of shocked reactions from traders and strategistssee this).<blockquote>正如美国银行经济学家Alexander Lin所写，“令人瞠目结舌”的4月份CPI报告是一个“巨大的惊喜”，因为核心CPI环比强劲上涨0.9%（未四舍五入为0.92%），这是自1981年以来的最大涨幅，并超出了市场普遍预测0.3%（有关交易员和策略师的各种震惊反应，请参阅此处）。</blockquote>However, in some potentially mitigating details, BofA reveals that near-term inflation pressures were driven bygoods shortages and the reopening \"and that was certainly the case this month as these two themes accounted for at least 70bp of the rise in core.\"<blockquote>然而，在一些可能缓解的细节中，美国银行透露，近期通胀压力是由以下因素驱动的商品短缺和重新开放“本月的情况确实如此，因为这两个主题至少占core涨幅的70个基点。”</blockquote><ul><li>First on&nbsp; shortages, auto prices jumped 4.3% mom with particular strength in used cars, which posted a record increase of 10.0% mom. Despite this historic increase, there is likely further upside in the pipeline with Manheim wholesale used cars rising another 8.2% in April, which builds on the 11% increase from Jan through March.</li><li>Household furnishings &amp; supplies also jumped 0.9% mom, with strength in other goods like recreation (+1.2%) and education &amp; communication (+3.1%).</li><li>Related to the reopening, lodging away from home rose 7.6% mom and transportation services jumped 2.9%.</li><li>In transportation services, airline fares leapt 10.2% mom and car &amp; truck rental leasing surged 16.2% mom, which follows an already impressive 11.7% gain in March.</li><li>The gains in lodging and airfares were both record highs,but prices remain 17.7% and 4.9% lower than pre-pandemic levels which means scope for further significant price increases in coming months.</li><li>In leasing, rental car companies have been impacted by the production cuts in the auto sector as well, which has forced them to build back their fleets with used cars as travel recovers.</li><li>Motor vehicle insurance prices also rose 2.5% mom, which could reflect more people getting back on the roads.</li></ul>Meanwhile, Lin argues that more persistent sources of inflation were tamer. Rents and OER both came in at 0.2% mom, which while in line with the recent trend, is about to change as we discussed in \"And Now Rents Are Soaring Too.\" Furthermore, as Joseph Carson notes, housing prices are up 18% in the past 12 months, a record increase andnine times the increase in owners' rent. \"The old CPI included house prices. Inserting house prices in place of non-market owner rents,reported inflation would have been twice the 4.2% gain.\"<blockquote><ul><li>首先是短缺问题，汽车价格环比上涨4.3%，尤其是二手车，环比上涨10.0%，创历史新高。尽管出现了历史性的增长，但曼海姆批发二手车在1月至3月11%增长的基础上，4月份可能会进一步上涨8.2%。</li><li>家居用品和用品也环比上涨0.9%，其他商品如娱乐（+1.2%）和教育及通讯（+3.1%）表现强劲。</li><li>与重新开放相关，外出住宿环比增长7.6%，交通服务增长2.9%。</li><li>在运输服务方面，机票价格环比上涨10.2%，汽车和卡车租赁价格环比飙升16.2%，此前3月份已经上涨了11.7%，令人印象深刻。</li><li>住宿和机票价格涨幅均创历史新高，但价格仍比大流行前的水平低17.7%和4.9%，这意味着未来几个月价格还有进一步大幅上涨的空间。</li><li>在租赁方面，汽车租赁公司也受到了汽车行业减产的影响，随着旅行的复苏，这迫使他们用二手车重建车队。</li><li>机动车辆保险价格也环比上涨2.5%，这可能反映出更多的人重新上路。</li></ul>与此同时，林认为，更持久的通胀来源更加温和。租金和OER环比均上涨0.2%，虽然与最近的趋势一致，但正如我们在“现在租金也在飙升”中讨论的那样，即将发生变化。此外，正如约瑟夫·卡森指出的那样，过去12个月房价上涨了18%，创下了历史新高业主租金涨幅的九倍。”旧的CPI包括房价。插入房价代替非市场业主租金，报告的通胀率将是4.2%涨幅的两倍.\"</blockquote>Meanwhile, medical care inflation was flat as the boost from stimulus around the turn of the year faded. Within healthcare, insurance was a big drag, contracting 1.0% mom. Professional services also inched down -0.2% mom, while hospital rose 0.3% mom.<blockquote>与此同时，随着年初刺激措施的提振消退，医疗保健通胀持平。在医疗保健领域，保险是一个很大的拖累，环比收缩1.0%。专业服务环比也小幅下降0.2%，而医院环比上涨0.3%。</blockquote>A visual summary of the data looks like this, first on a M/M basis, where the base effect has no impact as it is sequential...<blockquote>数据的可视化摘要如下所示，首先是在M/M的基础上，基数效应没有影响，因为它是连续的...</blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ae18376e78b4cca392db3a4a3ac3e393\" tg-width=\"1132\" tg-height=\"684\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">... and then the YoY CPI print which is less relevant due to the collapse last March.<blockquote>...然后是同比CPI数据，由于去年3月的崩溃，该数据不太相关。</blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/63fb5677bd66ef2a9464cd05c551b8b7\" tg-width=\"1139\" tg-height=\"647\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><blockquote></blockquote>So with inflation soaring, will anything change and will the Fed be forced to tighten sooner? According to BofA, not at all: \"the Fed is likely to continue to reiterate the message of transitory one-off price increases versus more persistent inflation, with this report a shining example of these dynamics. However, a key question going forward is whether this transitory strength will ultimately feed into the latter. This would be accomplished through rising long term inflation expectations—keep an eye out on survey- and market-based measures.\"<blockquote>那么，随着通胀飙升，情况会发生变化吗？美联储会被迫更快收紧吗？根据美国银行的说法，根本不是：“美联储可能会继续重申暂时的一次性价格上涨与更持久的通胀的信息，这份报告是这些动态的一个光辉例子。然而，未来的一个关键问题是，这种短暂的力量最终是否会流入后者。这将通过提高长期通胀预期来实现——密切关注调查和基于市场的措施。”</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/here-heatmap-todays-eye-popping-cpi-report\">zerohedge</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/here-heatmap-todays-eye-popping-cpi-report","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1170539751","content_text":"As BOfA economist Alexander Lin writes, the \"eye-popping\" April CPI report was a \"massive surprise\" as core CPI strongly rose 0.9% (0.92% unrounded) sequentially, which was the largest gain since 1981 and blew away consensus forecasts of 0.3% (for a full range of shocked reactions from traders and strategistssee this).However, in some potentially mitigating details, BofA reveals that near-term inflation pressures were driven bygoods shortages and the reopening \"and that was certainly the case this month as these two themes accounted for at least 70bp of the rise in core.\"First on  shortages, auto prices jumped 4.3% mom with particular strength in used cars, which posted a record increase of 10.0% mom. Despite this historic increase, there is likely further upside in the pipeline with Manheim wholesale used cars rising another 8.2% in April, which builds on the 11% increase from Jan through March.Household furnishings & supplies also jumped 0.9% mom, with strength in other goods like recreation (+1.2%) and education & communication (+3.1%).Related to the reopening, lodging away from home rose 7.6% mom and transportation services jumped 2.9%.In transportation services, airline fares leapt 10.2% mom and car & truck rental leasing surged 16.2% mom, which follows an already impressive 11.7% gain in March.The gains in lodging and airfares were both record highs,but prices remain 17.7% and 4.9% lower than pre-pandemic levels which means scope for further significant price increases in coming months.In leasing, rental car companies have been impacted by the production cuts in the auto sector as well, which has forced them to build back their fleets with used cars as travel recovers.Motor vehicle insurance prices also rose 2.5% mom, which could reflect more people getting back on the roads.Meanwhile, Lin argues that more persistent sources of inflation were tamer. Rents and OER both came in at 0.2% mom, which while in line with the recent trend, is about to change as we discussed in \"And Now Rents Are Soaring Too.\" Furthermore, as Joseph Carson notes, housing prices are up 18% in the past 12 months, a record increase andnine times the increase in owners' rent. \"The old CPI included house prices. Inserting house prices in place of non-market owner rents,reported inflation would have been twice the 4.2% gain.\"Meanwhile, medical care inflation was flat as the boost from stimulus around the turn of the year faded. Within healthcare, insurance was a big drag, contracting 1.0% mom. Professional services also inched down -0.2% mom, while hospital rose 0.3% mom.A visual summary of the data looks like this, first on a M/M basis, where the base effect has no impact as it is sequential...... and then the YoY CPI print which is less relevant due to the collapse last March.So with inflation soaring, will anything change and will the Fed be forced to tighten sooner? According to BofA, not at all: \"the Fed is likely to continue to reiterate the message of transitory one-off price increases versus more persistent inflation, with this report a shining example of these dynamics. However, a key question going forward is whether this transitory strength will ultimately feed into the latter. This would be accomplished through rising long term inflation expectations—keep an eye out on survey- and market-based measures.\"","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":475,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":2,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/191984939"}