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2021-03-16
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Billions poured into electric-vehicle companies, but much more will be needed before the auto industry changes<blockquote>数十亿美元涌入电动汽车公司，但在汽车行业变革之前还需要更多</blockquote>
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{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"detailType":1,"isChannel":false,"data":{"magic":2,"id":325972873,"tweetId":"325972873","gmtCreate":1615860728592,"gmtModify":1703494107015,"author":{"id":3573365646031567,"idStr":"3573365646031567","authorId":3573365646031567,"authorIdStr":"3573365646031567","name":"Jukyxu","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"fanSize":20,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body><p>Like and comments thanks</p></body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body><p>Like and comments thanks</p></body></html>","text":"Like and comments thanks","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/325972873","repostId":2119094972,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2119094972","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1615860566,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2119094972?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-03-16 10:09","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Billions poured into electric-vehicle companies, but much more will be needed before the auto industry changes<blockquote>数十亿美元涌入电动汽车公司，但在汽车行业变革之前还需要更多</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2119094972","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"‘The writing is on the wall with regard to the long-term EV versus internal combustion debate,’ but ","content":"<p>‘The writing is on the wall with regard to the long-term EV versus internal combustion debate,’ but length of the trip to an electrified future is still a debate</p><p><blockquote>“关于电动汽车与内燃机的长期争论已经不祥之兆”，但通往电气化未来的旅程长度仍然是一个争论</blockquote></p><p> Wall Street and Silicon Valley poured billions of dollars into electric-vehicle and related companies in 2020, betting on their future dominance and in many cases fueling valuations that bear little relation to the companies’ current or expected production and sales.</p><p><blockquote>2020年，华尔街和硅谷向电动汽车及相关公司投入了数十亿美元，押注于它们未来的主导地位，并在许多情况下推高了与公司当前或预期生产和销售关系不大的估值。</blockquote></p><p> There is little doubt that the automotive industry is trending toward electric vehicles amid the rise of Tesla Inc. Declining prices and increasing availability of electric vehicles, or EVs; the potential for technology breakthroughs that offer a cheaper, longer-lasting, and faster-to-recharge battery; strides in EV infrastructure, and “green friendly” government initiatives taking root in the U.S. and elsewhere show the likely path.</p><p><blockquote>毫无疑问，随着特斯拉公司的崛起，汽车行业正在转向电动汽车。电动汽车（EV）价格下降、供应量增加；提供更便宜、更耐用、充电更快的电池的技术突破的潜力；电动汽车基础设施的进步以及在美国和其他地方扎根的“绿色友好”政府举措显示了可能的道路。</blockquote></p><p> And what once was an investment universe comprising solely Tesla and a smattering of fuel-cell companies has burgeoned into a subsector combining industrials, tech and transportation, with China as a major driving force both as EV makers’ base market and for EV demand. In total, at least $28 billion was invested in public and private electric-vehicle companies in 2020, according to data from CB Insights and Dow Jones Market Data Group.</p><p><blockquote>曾经仅由特斯拉和少数燃料电池公司组成的投资领域已迅速发展成为一个结合工业、科技和交通的子行业，中国是电动汽车制造商的基础市场和电动汽车需求的主要驱动力。根据CB Insights和道琼斯市场数据集团的数据，2020年公共和私营电动汽车公司的投资总额至少为280亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> “The writing is on the wall with regard to the long-term EV versus internal combustion debate,” said John Mitchell, a partner at Blue Horizon Capital.</p><p><blockquote>Blue Horizon Capital合伙人约翰·米切尔(John Mitchell)表示：“关于电动汽车与内燃机的长期争论，已经不祥之兆。”</blockquote></p><p> In several countries around the world, people will no longer be allowed to purchase internal combustion-engine vehicles within a short decade or two, and global auto makers have realized that “the transition to electrified vehicles is the only way to compete,” he said.</p><p><blockquote>在世界上的几个国家，人们将在短短十年或二十年内不再被允许购买内燃机汽车，全球汽车制造商已经意识到“向电动汽车过渡是竞争的唯一途径，”他说。</blockquote></p><p> Not to be outdone, General Motors Co.,Ford Motor Co. and other legacy auto makers amped investments in EVs and autonomous vehicles, with GM going as far as vowing to phase out internal combustion-engine vehicles within less than 15 years. Tesla, of course, joined the S&P 500 index in 2020 after finally showing consistent profit.New companies such as Nio Inc.NIO,-1.25%,Nikola Corp.,and Fisker Inc. attracted outsize investor attention, and the involvement of special-purpose acquisition companies became nearly common place.</p><p><blockquote>通用汽车公司、福特汽车公司和其他传统汽车制造商也不甘示弱，加大了对电动汽车和自动驾驶汽车的投资，通用汽车甚至发誓要在不到15年内逐步淘汰内燃机汽车。当然，特斯拉在最终显示出持续盈利后，于2020年加入了标普500指数。蔚来公司（NIO，-1.25%）、尼古拉公司（Nikola Corp.）和菲斯克公司（Fisker Inc.）等新公司吸引了投资者的极大关注，特殊目的收购公司几乎变得司空见惯。</blockquote></p><p> “The EV party is just beginning, buckle the seat belts,” Wedbush analyst Dan Ives said recently. Recent weakness are short-term “growing pains,” he said.</p><p><blockquote>韦德布什分析师丹·艾夫斯最近表示：“电动汽车派对才刚刚开始，请系好安全带。”他说，最近的疲软是短期的“成长的烦恼”。</blockquote></p><p> That doesn’t mean that the switch from combustion engines to electric cars will take place quickly. Electric cars currently make up around 2% of global auto sales, and estimates for a future market share vary from a low-end forecast of 10% to 20% of cars sold by 2030 to as much as two-thirds of the market by that time.</p><p><blockquote>这并不意味着从内燃机到电动汽车的转变会很快发生。电动汽车目前约占全球汽车销量的2%，对未来市场份额的估计各不相同，从到2030年占汽车销量10%至20%的低端预测到届时占市场份额的三分之二。</blockquote></p><p> Much more money will be needed to fund the switch, despite the billions that already found its way to EV-related investments. A recent note from B. of A. Securities put a price tag on a future EV “revolution,” saying that funding that change is still a “tremendous hurdle.”</p><p><blockquote>尽管已经有数十亿美元用于电动汽车相关投资，但仍需要更多资金来为这一转变提供资金。B.of A.Securities最近的一份报告为未来的电动汽车“革命”贴上了价格标签，称为这一变革提供资金仍然是一个“巨大的障碍”。</blockquote></p><p> Extrapolating from the relationship between Tesla’s capital raises and its capacity to make vehicles, the B. of A. analysts calculated that a shift to a 100% EV world would need more than $2.5 trillion in investments, coming from the companies, investors and governments across the world.</p><p><blockquote>根据特斯拉融资与其汽车制造能力之间的关系推断，B.of A.分析师计算出，向100%电动汽车世界的转变将需要来自公司、投资者和政府超过2.5万亿美元的投资。世界各地。</blockquote></p><p> Recent capital raises by EV and related companies through the SPACs, or “blank-check” companies, “may be just a beginning,” they said.</p><p><blockquote>他们表示，电动汽车和相关公司最近通过SPAC或“空白支票”公司筹集的资金“可能只是一个开始”。</blockquote></p><p> <b>‘Hyper growth’ in EV and renewables</b></p><p><blockquote><b>电动汽车和可再生能源的“高速增长”</b></blockquote></p><p> The heightened interest in EV and related stocks has led to concerns about a bubble.</p><p><blockquote>人们对电动汽车及相关股票的兴趣增强引发了人们对泡沫的担忧。</blockquote></p><p> At a recent JPMorgan virtual investor conference, head of global research Joyce Chang and others told the audience that they were not seeing “a broad equity market bubble,” but that “certain pockets” of the market were experiencing “hyper growth, such as electric vehicles and renewables.”</p><p><blockquote>在最近的摩根大通虚拟投资者会议上，全球研究主管Joyce Chang和其他人告诉观众，他们没有看到“广泛的股市泡沫”，但市场的“某些部分”正在经历“高速增长，例如电动汽车和可再生能源。”</blockquote></p><p> Bubbles, of course, are easy to spot — in hindsight. It remains to be seen whether the current influx of money and attention to EV companies, as well as to autonomous vehicles and AV-adjacent companies, will resemble the short-lived notice paid to cloud-computing companies half a decade ago, or the early aughts’ spotlight on fuel-cell companies, several of which — 20 years later — have still not returned to record highs established then.</p><p><blockquote>当然，事后看来，泡沫很容易被发现。目前涌入电动汽车公司以及自动驾驶汽车和自动驾驶汽车相关公司的资金和关注是否会类似于五年前向云计算公司支付的短暂通知，或者类似于五年前向云计算公司支付的短暂通知，还有待观察。早期的事情对燃料电池公司的关注，其中几家公司——20年后——仍未恢复到当时创下的历史新高。</blockquote></p><p> The JPMorgan analysts reminded the audience that EV, renewables and “innovation” stocks make up a small percentage of the broader equity market, with EVs only around 2% of the S&P 500.</p><p><blockquote>摩根大通分析师提醒观众，电动汽车、可再生能源和“创新”股票在整个股市中所占比例很小，电动汽车仅占标普500的2%左右。</blockquote></p><p> Boding well for the future, however, Blue Horizon’s Mitchell pointed to the increasing quality and technical improvements for EVs.</p><p><blockquote>然而，Blue Horizon的米切尔指出，电动汽车的质量和技术改进不断提高，这预示着未来的良好前景。</blockquote></p><p> “Battery life is only going to be extended and with the trillions being invested globally by all those supporting the electrification of the transportation system the infrastructure for widespread adoption and usage of EV technology is only going to increase,” he said.</p><p><blockquote>他说：“电池寿命只会延长，随着所有支持交通系统电气化的人在全球范围内投资数万亿美元，广泛采用和使用电动汽车技术的基础设施只会增加。”</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Analysts at UBS forecast that global auto makers’ revenues from EVs are going to shift to $1.16 trillion by year 2030, from $182 billion today.</p><p><blockquote>瑞银分析师预测，到2030年，全球汽车制造商来自电动汽车的收入将从目前的1820亿美元增至1.16万亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Conversely, revenue from ICE vehicles, at $1.77 trillion today, will dwindle to $1.07 trillion. Revenues for software will make an even bigger slice of that revenue pie by 2030, at nearly $2 trillion.</p><p><blockquote>相反，内燃机汽车的收入目前为1.77万亿美元，将减少至1.07万亿美元。到2030年，软件收入将在收入蛋糕中占据更大的份额，达到近2万亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Here’s the UBS chart, in billions:</p><p><blockquote>以下是瑞银图表，单位为十亿：</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d50358ca5183ce3798dcd48c2d4d479f\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"565\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <b>A company or a business plan?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>公司还是商业计划？</b></blockquote></p><p> Blank-check companies have been around for a long time, but took on a larger role in U.S. investing last year, when there were more initial public offerings through special-purpose acquisition companies than all other years combined, Garrett Nelson at CFRA said in a recent note.</p><p><blockquote>CFRA的加勒特·纳尔逊(Garrett Nelson)在一份报告中表示，空白支票公司已经存在了很长时间，但去年在美国投资中发挥了更大的作用，当时通过特殊目的收购公司进行的首次公开募股比所有其他年份的总和还要多。最近的笔记。</blockquote></p><p> Activity in 2021 is on track to exceed last year’s “by a wide margin,” and some of the largest SPAC deals are again likely to be in the “burgeoning electric and autonomous vehicle (EV/AV) space,” he said.</p><p><blockquote>他表示，2021年的活动有望“大幅”超过去年，一些最大的SPAC交易可能再次出现在“新兴的电动和自动驾驶汽车（EV/AV）领域”。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/341d62db385f1b98b0032b7a2f54ff9a\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"857\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Some of the companies popping in “resemble business plans rather more than revenue- or profit-generating businesses,” but there’s reason for optimism, Nelson said.</p><p><blockquote>纳尔逊说，一些突然出现的公司“更像是商业计划，而不是产生收入或利润的业务”，但有理由乐观。</blockquote></p><p> The CFRA analyst singled out Fisker, Lucid Motors, which plans to go public via a SPAC merger with Churchill Capital Corp. IV and privately held electric-truck maker Rivian as companies that are better positioned than others.</p><p><blockquote>这位CFRA分析师特别指出，Fisker、Lucid Motors（计划通过SPAC与Churchill Capital Corp.IV合并上市）以及私营电动卡车制造商Rivian是比其他公司定位更好的公司。</blockquote></p><p> Tesla, of course, has established a first-mover advantage widely viewed as substantial.</p><p><blockquote>当然，特斯拉已经建立了被广泛认为是巨大的先发优势。</blockquote></p><p> The UBS analysts calculate that Tesla has a cost advantage around $1,000 to $2,000 per electric vehicle over other auto makers, although competition is increasing. Volkswagen AG’s MEB platform, the auto maker’s building block for its electric vehicles, is already “fully cost competitive” with Tesla.</p><p><blockquote>瑞银分析师计算出，尽管竞争正在加剧，但与其他汽车制造商相比，特斯拉每辆电动汽车的成本优势约为1,000至2,000美元。大众汽车公司的MEB平台是该汽车制造商电动汽车的构建模块，已经与特斯拉“完全具有成本竞争力”。</blockquote></p><p> VW, the No. 2 auto maker in the world, still lags behind in terms of battery costs, with Tesla likely to keep its price advantage in the battery space due to its vertical integration and technology advances, they said. Still, they see that large legacy auto makers such as VW would be able to reach an EV manufacturing cost and margin parity in four years.</p><p><blockquote>他们表示，全球第二大汽车制造商大众在电池成本方面仍然落后，而特斯拉由于其垂直整合和技术进步，可能会保持其在电池领域的价格优势。尽管如此，他们认为大众等大型传统汽车制造商将能够在四年内实现电动汽车制造成本和利润率平价。</blockquote></p><p> <b>EVs, not AVs, could be the real game-changer</b></p><p><blockquote><b>电动汽车，而不是自动驾驶汽车，可能是真正的游戏规则改变者</b></blockquote></p><p> Related to investor’s inflows to electric-vehicle makers is the interest generated by lidar, batteries, sensors and other components hailed as key to autonomous vehicles.</p><p><blockquote>与投资者流入电动汽车制造商相关的是激光雷达、电池、传感器和其他被誉为自动驾驶汽车关键的组件所产生的兴趣。</blockquote></p><p> Full autonomy has been proven to be a stubborn and costly problem to solve, with regulatory and technological hurdles aplenty.</p><p><blockquote>事实证明，完全自治是一个顽固且解决起来成本高昂的问题，存在大量监管和技术障碍。</blockquote></p><p> Despite lofty goals, most cars on the road today offer advanced driver-assistance systems that are not dramatically different from previous years’ systems and still far from being the game-changer they are expected to be for lives and economies in a not-so-distant future.</p><p><blockquote>尽管目标很高，但当今道路上的大多数汽车都提供了先进的驾驶员辅助系统，这些系统与前几年的系统没有太大区别，而且距离它们在不久的将来有望改变生活和经济的游戏规则还很远。遥远的未来。</blockquote></p><p> For now, auto makers are mostly focusing on partial autonomy and ADAS offerings that can be commercialized in the short term, with EVs pulling ahead in terms of consumer interest and regulatory push.</p><p><blockquote>目前，汽车制造商主要专注于可以在短期内商业化的部分自动驾驶和ADAS产品，电动汽车在消费者兴趣和监管推动方面领先。</blockquote></p><p> “EVs are simply a better product,” Blue Horizon’s Mitchell said.</p><p><blockquote>“电动汽车只是一种更好的产品，”蓝色地平线的米切尔说。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"market_watch","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; 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color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBillions poured into electric-vehicle companies, but much more will be needed before the auto industry changes<blockquote>数十亿美元涌入电动汽车公司，但在汽车行业变革之前还需要更多</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">MarketWatch</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-03-16 10:09</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>‘The writing is on the wall with regard to the long-term EV versus internal combustion debate,’ but length of the trip to an electrified future is still a debate</p><p><blockquote>“关于电动汽车与内燃机的长期争论已经不祥之兆”，但通往电气化未来的旅程长度仍然是一个争论</blockquote></p><p> Wall Street and Silicon Valley poured billions of dollars into electric-vehicle and related companies in 2020, betting on their future dominance and in many cases fueling valuations that bear little relation to the companies’ current or expected production and sales.</p><p><blockquote>2020年，华尔街和硅谷向电动汽车及相关公司投入了数十亿美元，押注于它们未来的主导地位，并在许多情况下推高了与公司当前或预期生产和销售关系不大的估值。</blockquote></p><p> There is little doubt that the automotive industry is trending toward electric vehicles amid the rise of Tesla Inc. Declining prices and increasing availability of electric vehicles, or EVs; the potential for technology breakthroughs that offer a cheaper, longer-lasting, and faster-to-recharge battery; strides in EV infrastructure, and “green friendly” government initiatives taking root in the U.S. and elsewhere show the likely path.</p><p><blockquote>毫无疑问，随着特斯拉公司的崛起，汽车行业正在转向电动汽车。电动汽车（EV）价格下降、供应量增加；提供更便宜、更耐用、充电更快的电池的技术突破的潜力；电动汽车基础设施的进步以及在美国和其他地方扎根的“绿色友好”政府举措显示了可能的道路。</blockquote></p><p> And what once was an investment universe comprising solely Tesla and a smattering of fuel-cell companies has burgeoned into a subsector combining industrials, tech and transportation, with China as a major driving force both as EV makers’ base market and for EV demand. In total, at least $28 billion was invested in public and private electric-vehicle companies in 2020, according to data from CB Insights and Dow Jones Market Data Group.</p><p><blockquote>曾经仅由特斯拉和少数燃料电池公司组成的投资领域已迅速发展成为一个结合工业、科技和交通的子行业，中国是电动汽车制造商的基础市场和电动汽车需求的主要驱动力。根据CB Insights和道琼斯市场数据集团的数据，2020年公共和私营电动汽车公司的投资总额至少为280亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> “The writing is on the wall with regard to the long-term EV versus internal combustion debate,” said John Mitchell, a partner at Blue Horizon Capital.</p><p><blockquote>Blue Horizon Capital合伙人约翰·米切尔(John Mitchell)表示：“关于电动汽车与内燃机的长期争论，已经不祥之兆。”</blockquote></p><p> In several countries around the world, people will no longer be allowed to purchase internal combustion-engine vehicles within a short decade or two, and global auto makers have realized that “the transition to electrified vehicles is the only way to compete,” he said.</p><p><blockquote>在世界上的几个国家，人们将在短短十年或二十年内不再被允许购买内燃机汽车，全球汽车制造商已经意识到“向电动汽车过渡是竞争的唯一途径，”他说。</blockquote></p><p> Not to be outdone, General Motors Co.,Ford Motor Co. and other legacy auto makers amped investments in EVs and autonomous vehicles, with GM going as far as vowing to phase out internal combustion-engine vehicles within less than 15 years. Tesla, of course, joined the S&P 500 index in 2020 after finally showing consistent profit.New companies such as Nio Inc.NIO,-1.25%,Nikola Corp.,and Fisker Inc. attracted outsize investor attention, and the involvement of special-purpose acquisition companies became nearly common place.</p><p><blockquote>通用汽车公司、福特汽车公司和其他传统汽车制造商也不甘示弱，加大了对电动汽车和自动驾驶汽车的投资，通用汽车甚至发誓要在不到15年内逐步淘汰内燃机汽车。当然，特斯拉在最终显示出持续盈利后，于2020年加入了标普500指数。蔚来公司（NIO，-1.25%）、尼古拉公司（Nikola Corp.）和菲斯克公司（Fisker Inc.）等新公司吸引了投资者的极大关注，特殊目的收购公司几乎变得司空见惯。</blockquote></p><p> “The EV party is just beginning, buckle the seat belts,” Wedbush analyst Dan Ives said recently. Recent weakness are short-term “growing pains,” he said.</p><p><blockquote>韦德布什分析师丹·艾夫斯最近表示：“电动汽车派对才刚刚开始，请系好安全带。”他说，最近的疲软是短期的“成长的烦恼”。</blockquote></p><p> That doesn’t mean that the switch from combustion engines to electric cars will take place quickly. Electric cars currently make up around 2% of global auto sales, and estimates for a future market share vary from a low-end forecast of 10% to 20% of cars sold by 2030 to as much as two-thirds of the market by that time.</p><p><blockquote>这并不意味着从内燃机到电动汽车的转变会很快发生。电动汽车目前约占全球汽车销量的2%，对未来市场份额的估计各不相同，从到2030年占汽车销量10%至20%的低端预测到届时占市场份额的三分之二。</blockquote></p><p> Much more money will be needed to fund the switch, despite the billions that already found its way to EV-related investments. A recent note from B. of A. Securities put a price tag on a future EV “revolution,” saying that funding that change is still a “tremendous hurdle.”</p><p><blockquote>尽管已经有数十亿美元用于电动汽车相关投资，但仍需要更多资金来为这一转变提供资金。B.of A.Securities最近的一份报告为未来的电动汽车“革命”贴上了价格标签，称为这一变革提供资金仍然是一个“巨大的障碍”。</blockquote></p><p> Extrapolating from the relationship between Tesla’s capital raises and its capacity to make vehicles, the B. of A. analysts calculated that a shift to a 100% EV world would need more than $2.5 trillion in investments, coming from the companies, investors and governments across the world.</p><p><blockquote>根据特斯拉融资与其汽车制造能力之间的关系推断，B.of A.分析师计算出，向100%电动汽车世界的转变将需要来自公司、投资者和政府超过2.5万亿美元的投资。世界各地。</blockquote></p><p> Recent capital raises by EV and related companies through the SPACs, or “blank-check” companies, “may be just a beginning,” they said.</p><p><blockquote>他们表示，电动汽车和相关公司最近通过SPAC或“空白支票”公司筹集的资金“可能只是一个开始”。</blockquote></p><p> <b>‘Hyper growth’ in EV and renewables</b></p><p><blockquote><b>电动汽车和可再生能源的“高速增长”</b></blockquote></p><p> The heightened interest in EV and related stocks has led to concerns about a bubble.</p><p><blockquote>人们对电动汽车及相关股票的兴趣增强引发了人们对泡沫的担忧。</blockquote></p><p> At a recent JPMorgan virtual investor conference, head of global research Joyce Chang and others told the audience that they were not seeing “a broad equity market bubble,” but that “certain pockets” of the market were experiencing “hyper growth, such as electric vehicles and renewables.”</p><p><blockquote>在最近的摩根大通虚拟投资者会议上，全球研究主管Joyce Chang和其他人告诉观众，他们没有看到“广泛的股市泡沫”，但市场的“某些部分”正在经历“高速增长，例如电动汽车和可再生能源。”</blockquote></p><p> Bubbles, of course, are easy to spot — in hindsight. It remains to be seen whether the current influx of money and attention to EV companies, as well as to autonomous vehicles and AV-adjacent companies, will resemble the short-lived notice paid to cloud-computing companies half a decade ago, or the early aughts’ spotlight on fuel-cell companies, several of which — 20 years later — have still not returned to record highs established then.</p><p><blockquote>当然，事后看来，泡沫很容易被发现。目前涌入电动汽车公司以及自动驾驶汽车和自动驾驶汽车相关公司的资金和关注是否会类似于五年前向云计算公司支付的短暂通知，或者类似于五年前向云计算公司支付的短暂通知，还有待观察。早期的事情对燃料电池公司的关注，其中几家公司——20年后——仍未恢复到当时创下的历史新高。</blockquote></p><p> The JPMorgan analysts reminded the audience that EV, renewables and “innovation” stocks make up a small percentage of the broader equity market, with EVs only around 2% of the S&P 500.</p><p><blockquote>摩根大通分析师提醒观众，电动汽车、可再生能源和“创新”股票在整个股市中所占比例很小，电动汽车仅占标普500的2%左右。</blockquote></p><p> Boding well for the future, however, Blue Horizon’s Mitchell pointed to the increasing quality and technical improvements for EVs.</p><p><blockquote>然而，Blue Horizon的米切尔指出，电动汽车的质量和技术改进不断提高，这预示着未来的良好前景。</blockquote></p><p> “Battery life is only going to be extended and with the trillions being invested globally by all those supporting the electrification of the transportation system the infrastructure for widespread adoption and usage of EV technology is only going to increase,” he said.</p><p><blockquote>他说：“电池寿命只会延长，随着所有支持交通系统电气化的人在全球范围内投资数万亿美元，广泛采用和使用电动汽车技术的基础设施只会增加。”</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Analysts at UBS forecast that global auto makers’ revenues from EVs are going to shift to $1.16 trillion by year 2030, from $182 billion today.</p><p><blockquote>瑞银分析师预测，到2030年，全球汽车制造商来自电动汽车的收入将从目前的1820亿美元增至1.16万亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Conversely, revenue from ICE vehicles, at $1.77 trillion today, will dwindle to $1.07 trillion. Revenues for software will make an even bigger slice of that revenue pie by 2030, at nearly $2 trillion.</p><p><blockquote>相反，内燃机汽车的收入目前为1.77万亿美元，将减少至1.07万亿美元。到2030年，软件收入将在收入蛋糕中占据更大的份额，达到近2万亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Here’s the UBS chart, in billions:</p><p><blockquote>以下是瑞银图表，单位为十亿：</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d50358ca5183ce3798dcd48c2d4d479f\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"565\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <b>A company or a business plan?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>公司还是商业计划？</b></blockquote></p><p> Blank-check companies have been around for a long time, but took on a larger role in U.S. investing last year, when there were more initial public offerings through special-purpose acquisition companies than all other years combined, Garrett Nelson at CFRA said in a recent note.</p><p><blockquote>CFRA的加勒特·纳尔逊(Garrett Nelson)在一份报告中表示，空白支票公司已经存在了很长时间，但去年在美国投资中发挥了更大的作用，当时通过特殊目的收购公司进行的首次公开募股比所有其他年份的总和还要多。最近的笔记。</blockquote></p><p> Activity in 2021 is on track to exceed last year’s “by a wide margin,” and some of the largest SPAC deals are again likely to be in the “burgeoning electric and autonomous vehicle (EV/AV) space,” he said.</p><p><blockquote>他表示，2021年的活动有望“大幅”超过去年，一些最大的SPAC交易可能再次出现在“新兴的电动和自动驾驶汽车（EV/AV）领域”。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/341d62db385f1b98b0032b7a2f54ff9a\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"857\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Some of the companies popping in “resemble business plans rather more than revenue- or profit-generating businesses,” but there’s reason for optimism, Nelson said.</p><p><blockquote>纳尔逊说，一些突然出现的公司“更像是商业计划，而不是产生收入或利润的业务”，但有理由乐观。</blockquote></p><p> The CFRA analyst singled out Fisker, Lucid Motors, which plans to go public via a SPAC merger with Churchill Capital Corp. IV and privately held electric-truck maker Rivian as companies that are better positioned than others.</p><p><blockquote>这位CFRA分析师特别指出，Fisker、Lucid Motors（计划通过SPAC与Churchill Capital Corp.IV合并上市）以及私营电动卡车制造商Rivian是比其他公司定位更好的公司。</blockquote></p><p> Tesla, of course, has established a first-mover advantage widely viewed as substantial.</p><p><blockquote>当然，特斯拉已经建立了被广泛认为是巨大的先发优势。</blockquote></p><p> The UBS analysts calculate that Tesla has a cost advantage around $1,000 to $2,000 per electric vehicle over other auto makers, although competition is increasing. Volkswagen AG’s MEB platform, the auto maker’s building block for its electric vehicles, is already “fully cost competitive” with Tesla.</p><p><blockquote>瑞银分析师计算出，尽管竞争正在加剧，但与其他汽车制造商相比，特斯拉每辆电动汽车的成本优势约为1,000至2,000美元。大众汽车公司的MEB平台是该汽车制造商电动汽车的构建模块，已经与特斯拉“完全具有成本竞争力”。</blockquote></p><p> VW, the No. 2 auto maker in the world, still lags behind in terms of battery costs, with Tesla likely to keep its price advantage in the battery space due to its vertical integration and technology advances, they said. Still, they see that large legacy auto makers such as VW would be able to reach an EV manufacturing cost and margin parity in four years.</p><p><blockquote>他们表示，全球第二大汽车制造商大众在电池成本方面仍然落后，而特斯拉由于其垂直整合和技术进步，可能会保持其在电池领域的价格优势。尽管如此，他们认为大众等大型传统汽车制造商将能够在四年内实现电动汽车制造成本和利润率平价。</blockquote></p><p> <b>EVs, not AVs, could be the real game-changer</b></p><p><blockquote><b>电动汽车，而不是自动驾驶汽车，可能是真正的游戏规则改变者</b></blockquote></p><p> Related to investor’s inflows to electric-vehicle makers is the interest generated by lidar, batteries, sensors and other components hailed as key to autonomous vehicles.</p><p><blockquote>与投资者流入电动汽车制造商相关的是激光雷达、电池、传感器和其他被誉为自动驾驶汽车关键的组件所产生的兴趣。</blockquote></p><p> Full autonomy has been proven to be a stubborn and costly problem to solve, with regulatory and technological hurdles aplenty.</p><p><blockquote>事实证明，完全自治是一个顽固且解决起来成本高昂的问题，存在大量监管和技术障碍。</blockquote></p><p> Despite lofty goals, most cars on the road today offer advanced driver-assistance systems that are not dramatically different from previous years’ systems and still far from being the game-changer they are expected to be for lives and economies in a not-so-distant future.</p><p><blockquote>尽管目标很高，但当今道路上的大多数汽车都提供了先进的驾驶员辅助系统，这些系统与前几年的系统没有太大区别，而且距离它们在不久的将来有望改变生活和经济的游戏规则还很远。遥远的未来。</blockquote></p><p> For now, auto makers are mostly focusing on partial autonomy and ADAS offerings that can be commercialized in the short term, with EVs pulling ahead in terms of consumer interest and regulatory push.</p><p><blockquote>目前，汽车制造商主要专注于可以在短期内商业化的部分自动驾驶和ADAS产品，电动汽车在消费者兴趣和监管推动方面领先。</blockquote></p><p> “EVs are simply a better product,” Blue Horizon’s Mitchell said.</p><p><blockquote>“电动汽车只是一种更好的产品，”蓝色地平线的米切尔说。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/billions-poured-into-electric-vehicle-companies-but-much-more-will-be-needed-before-the-auto-industry-changes-11615834509?mod=home-page\">MarketWatch</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"GM":"通用汽车","TSLA":"特斯拉","F":"福特汽车","FSR":"菲斯克","NIO":"蔚来"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/billions-poured-into-electric-vehicle-companies-but-much-more-will-be-needed-before-the-auto-industry-changes-11615834509?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/599a65733b8245fcf7868668ef9ad712","article_id":"2119094972","content_text":"‘The writing is on the wall with regard to the long-term EV versus internal combustion debate,’ but length of the trip to an electrified future is still a debate\nWall Street and Silicon Valley poured billions of dollars into electric-vehicle and related companies in 2020, betting on their future dominance and in many cases fueling valuations that bear little relation to the companies’ current or expected production and sales.\nThere is little doubt that the automotive industry is trending toward electric vehicles amid the rise of Tesla Inc. Declining prices and increasing availability of electric vehicles, or EVs; the potential for technology breakthroughs that offer a cheaper, longer-lasting, and faster-to-recharge battery; strides in EV infrastructure, and “green friendly” government initiatives taking root in the U.S. and elsewhere show the likely path.\nAnd what once was an investment universe comprising solely Tesla and a smattering of fuel-cell companies has burgeoned into a subsector combining industrials, tech and transportation, with China as a major driving force both as EV makers’ base market and for EV demand. In total, at least $28 billion was invested in public and private electric-vehicle companies in 2020, according to data from CB Insights and Dow Jones Market Data Group.\n“The writing is on the wall with regard to the long-term EV versus internal combustion debate,” said John Mitchell, a partner at Blue Horizon Capital.\nIn several countries around the world, people will no longer be allowed to purchase internal combustion-engine vehicles within a short decade or two, and global auto makers have realized that “the transition to electrified vehicles is the only way to compete,” he said.\nNot to be outdone, General Motors Co.,Ford Motor Co. and other legacy auto makers amped investments in EVs and autonomous vehicles, with GM going as far as vowing to phase out internal combustion-engine vehicles within less than 15 years. Tesla, of course, joined the S&P 500 index in 2020 after finally showing consistent profit.New companies such as Nio Inc.NIO,-1.25%,Nikola Corp.,and Fisker Inc. attracted outsize investor attention, and the involvement of special-purpose acquisition companies became nearly common place.\n“The EV party is just beginning, buckle the seat belts,” Wedbush analyst Dan Ives said recently. Recent weakness are short-term “growing pains,” he said.\nThat doesn’t mean that the switch from combustion engines to electric cars will take place quickly. Electric cars currently make up around 2% of global auto sales, and estimates for a future market share vary from a low-end forecast of 10% to 20% of cars sold by 2030 to as much as two-thirds of the market by that time.\nMuch more money will be needed to fund the switch, despite the billions that already found its way to EV-related investments. A recent note from B. of A. Securities put a price tag on a future EV “revolution,” saying that funding that change is still a “tremendous hurdle.”\nExtrapolating from the relationship between Tesla’s capital raises and its capacity to make vehicles, the B. of A. analysts calculated that a shift to a 100% EV world would need more than $2.5 trillion in investments, coming from the companies, investors and governments across the world.\nRecent capital raises by EV and related companies through the SPACs, or “blank-check” companies, “may be just a beginning,” they said.\n‘Hyper growth’ in EV and renewables\nThe heightened interest in EV and related stocks has led to concerns about a bubble.\nAt a recent JPMorgan virtual investor conference, head of global research Joyce Chang and others told the audience that they were not seeing “a broad equity market bubble,” but that “certain pockets” of the market were experiencing “hyper growth, such as electric vehicles and renewables.”\nBubbles, of course, are easy to spot — in hindsight. It remains to be seen whether the current influx of money and attention to EV companies, as well as to autonomous vehicles and AV-adjacent companies, will resemble the short-lived notice paid to cloud-computing companies half a decade ago, or the early aughts’ spotlight on fuel-cell companies, several of which — 20 years later — have still not returned to record highs established then.\nThe JPMorgan analysts reminded the audience that EV, renewables and “innovation” stocks make up a small percentage of the broader equity market, with EVs only around 2% of the S&P 500.\nBoding well for the future, however, Blue Horizon’s Mitchell pointed to the increasing quality and technical improvements for EVs.\n“Battery life is only going to be extended and with the trillions being invested globally by all those supporting the electrification of the transportation system the infrastructure for widespread adoption and usage of EV technology is only going to increase,” he said.\nAnalysts at UBS forecast that global auto makers’ revenues from EVs are going to shift to $1.16 trillion by year 2030, from $182 billion today.\nConversely, revenue from ICE vehicles, at $1.77 trillion today, will dwindle to $1.07 trillion. Revenues for software will make an even bigger slice of that revenue pie by 2030, at nearly $2 trillion.\nHere’s the UBS chart, in billions:\n\nA company or a business plan?\nBlank-check companies have been around for a long time, but took on a larger role in U.S. investing last year, when there were more initial public offerings through special-purpose acquisition companies than all other years combined, Garrett Nelson at CFRA said in a recent note.\nActivity in 2021 is on track to exceed last year’s “by a wide margin,” and some of the largest SPAC deals are again likely to be in the “burgeoning electric and autonomous vehicle (EV/AV) space,” he said.\n\nSome of the companies popping in “resemble business plans rather more than revenue- or profit-generating businesses,” but there’s reason for optimism, Nelson said.\nThe CFRA analyst singled out Fisker, Lucid Motors, which plans to go public via a SPAC merger with Churchill Capital Corp. IV and privately held electric-truck maker Rivian as companies that are better positioned than others.\nTesla, of course, has established a first-mover advantage widely viewed as substantial.\nThe UBS analysts calculate that Tesla has a cost advantage around $1,000 to $2,000 per electric vehicle over other auto makers, although competition is increasing. Volkswagen AG’s MEB platform, the auto maker’s building block for its electric vehicles, is already “fully cost competitive” with Tesla.\nVW, the No. 2 auto maker in the world, still lags behind in terms of battery costs, with Tesla likely to keep its price advantage in the battery space due to its vertical integration and technology advances, they said. Still, they see that large legacy auto makers such as VW would be able to reach an EV manufacturing cost and margin parity in four years.\nEVs, not AVs, could be the real game-changer\nRelated to investor’s inflows to electric-vehicle makers is the interest generated by lidar, batteries, sensors and other components hailed as key to autonomous vehicles.\nFull autonomy has been proven to be a stubborn and costly problem to solve, with regulatory and technological hurdles aplenty.\nDespite lofty goals, most cars on the road today offer advanced driver-assistance systems that are not dramatically different from previous years’ systems and still far from being the game-changer they are expected to be for lives and economies in a not-so-distant future.\nFor now, auto makers are mostly focusing on partial autonomy and ADAS offerings that can be commercialized in the short term, with EVs pulling ahead in terms of consumer interest and regulatory push.\n“EVs are simply a better product,” Blue Horizon’s Mitchell said.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"GM":0.9,"TSLA":0.9,"NKLA":0.9,"F":0.9,"CCIV":0.9,"FSR":0.9,"NIO":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":353,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":21,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/325972873"}
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