Khay
2021-03-18
So is it saying we're being managed by a bunch of people who likes to fantasise?
How Can Anyone Believe the Fed's Fantasyland Economic Projections?<blockquote>怎么会有人相信美联储梦幻般的经济预测呢？</blockquote>
免责声明：上述内容仅代表发帖人个人观点，不构成本平台的任何投资建议。
分享至
微信
复制链接
精彩评论
我们需要你的真知灼见来填补这片空白
打开APP，发表看法
APP内打开
发表看法
2
{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"detailType":1,"isChannel":false,"data":{"magic":2,"id":327972105,"tweetId":"327972105","gmtCreate":1616055541407,"gmtModify":1703496954588,"author":{"id":3575509965500620,"idStr":"3575509965500620","authorId":3575509965500620,"authorIdStr":"3575509965500620","name":"Khay","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7697911666e72aa44cf5e42a7288913f","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"fanSize":15,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body><p>So is it saying we're being managed by a bunch of people who likes to fantasise?</p></body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body><p>So is it saying we're being managed by a bunch of people who likes to fantasise?</p></body></html>","text":"So is it saying we're being managed by a bunch of people who likes to fantasise?","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/327972105","repostId":1186476082,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1186476082","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1616054844,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1186476082?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-03-18 16:07","market":"us","language":"en","title":"How Can Anyone Believe the Fed's Fantasyland Economic Projections?<blockquote>怎么会有人相信美联储梦幻般的经济预测呢？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1186476082","media":"The Street","summary":"The Fed's Dot Plot of interest rate projections is another exercise in silliness.\n\n\nDot Plot\nTheDot ","content":"<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1c15f4c517ecfcc5418171bb4d9d2842\" tg-width=\"788\" tg-height=\"626\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> The Fed's Dot Plot of interest rate projections is another exercise in silliness. </p><p><blockquote>美联储的利率预测点阵图是另一个愚蠢的做法。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Dot Plot</b></p><p><blockquote><b>点阵图</b></blockquote></p><p> TheDot Plot is a summary of where the FOMC members see future interest rates.</p><p><blockquote>点阵图总结了FOMC成员对未来利率的看法。</blockquote></p><p> It's unanimous there will be no hikes this year. And by a 14-4 supermajority there will not be hikes in 2022.</p><p><blockquote>大家一致认为今年不会加息。以14比4的绝对多数，2022年不会加息。</blockquote></p><p> In 2023, the expectations are 11-7. Two brave souls actually think the Fed will hike 4 times in 2023. [Note: a reader commented that foolish is a better word than brave. I agree.]</p><p><blockquote>2023年，预期为11-7。两位勇敢的人实际上认为美联储将在2023年加息4次。【注：有读者评论说愚蠢比勇敢更好，我同意。】</blockquote></p><p> <b>Longer Run Silliness</b></p><p><blockquote><b>长期的愚蠢</b></blockquote></p><p> The longer run is a real hoot. A majority think rates will be 2.5% to 3.0%.</p><p><blockquote>从长远来看，这真的很有趣。大多数人认为利率将在2.5%至3.0%之间。</blockquote></p><p> US National Debt is over $28 trillion. Click here to see a continually updatedDebt Clockas in every second.</p><p><blockquote>美国国债超过28万亿美元。点击此处查看每秒钟不断更新的债务时钟。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Three Percent Interest On $28 Trillion</b></p><p><blockquote><b>28万亿美元利息3%</b></blockquote></p><p> Three percent of $28 trillion is $840,000,000,000. That's $840 billion annually.</p><p><blockquote>28万亿美元的3%是8400亿美元。这是每年8400亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Some debt will be long-term financed lower, but $28 trillion isn't constant.</p><p><blockquote>一些债务的长期融资将会减少，但28万亿美元并不是恒定的。</blockquote></p><p> And what about future recessions?</p><p><blockquote>未来的经济衰退又如何呢？</blockquote></p><p> These projections are nothing more than economic silliness.</p><p><blockquote>这些预测只不过是经济上的愚蠢。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Repeated Error</b></p><p><blockquote><b>重复错误</b></blockquote></p><p> Finally, please note Fed hubris. TheFed is Making the Same Inflation Mistakeonce again.</p><p><blockquote>最后，请注意美联储的傲慢。美联储再次犯了同样的通胀错误。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1610613172068","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>How Can Anyone Believe the Fed's Fantasyland Economic Projections?<blockquote>怎么会有人相信美联储梦幻般的经济预测呢？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHow Can Anyone Believe the Fed's Fantasyland Economic Projections?<blockquote>怎么会有人相信美联储梦幻般的经济预测呢？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">The Street</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-03-18 16:07</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1c15f4c517ecfcc5418171bb4d9d2842\" tg-width=\"788\" tg-height=\"626\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> The Fed's Dot Plot of interest rate projections is another exercise in silliness. </p><p><blockquote>美联储的利率预测点阵图是另一个愚蠢的做法。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Dot Plot</b></p><p><blockquote><b>点阵图</b></blockquote></p><p> TheDot Plot is a summary of where the FOMC members see future interest rates.</p><p><blockquote>点阵图总结了FOMC成员对未来利率的看法。</blockquote></p><p> It's unanimous there will be no hikes this year. And by a 14-4 supermajority there will not be hikes in 2022.</p><p><blockquote>大家一致认为今年不会加息。以14比4的绝对多数，2022年不会加息。</blockquote></p><p> In 2023, the expectations are 11-7. Two brave souls actually think the Fed will hike 4 times in 2023. [Note: a reader commented that foolish is a better word than brave. I agree.]</p><p><blockquote>2023年，预期为11-7。两位勇敢的人实际上认为美联储将在2023年加息4次。【注：有读者评论说愚蠢比勇敢更好，我同意。】</blockquote></p><p> <b>Longer Run Silliness</b></p><p><blockquote><b>长期的愚蠢</b></blockquote></p><p> The longer run is a real hoot. A majority think rates will be 2.5% to 3.0%.</p><p><blockquote>从长远来看，这真的很有趣。大多数人认为利率将在2.5%至3.0%之间。</blockquote></p><p> US National Debt is over $28 trillion. Click here to see a continually updatedDebt Clockas in every second.</p><p><blockquote>美国国债超过28万亿美元。点击此处查看每秒钟不断更新的债务时钟。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Three Percent Interest On $28 Trillion</b></p><p><blockquote><b>28万亿美元利息3%</b></blockquote></p><p> Three percent of $28 trillion is $840,000,000,000. That's $840 billion annually.</p><p><blockquote>28万亿美元的3%是8400亿美元。这是每年8400亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Some debt will be long-term financed lower, but $28 trillion isn't constant.</p><p><blockquote>一些债务的长期融资将会减少，但28万亿美元并不是恒定的。</blockquote></p><p> And what about future recessions?</p><p><blockquote>未来的经济衰退又如何呢？</blockquote></p><p> These projections are nothing more than economic silliness.</p><p><blockquote>这些预测只不过是经济上的愚蠢。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Repeated Error</b></p><p><blockquote><b>重复错误</b></blockquote></p><p> Finally, please note Fed hubris. TheFed is Making the Same Inflation Mistakeonce again.</p><p><blockquote>最后，请注意美联储的傲慢。美联储再次犯了同样的通胀错误。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.thestreet.com/mishtalk/economics/how-can-anyone-believe-the-feds-fantasyland-economic-projections\">The Street</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://www.thestreet.com/mishtalk/economics/how-can-anyone-believe-the-feds-fantasyland-economic-projections","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1186476082","content_text":"The Fed's Dot Plot of interest rate projections is another exercise in silliness.\n\n\nDot Plot\nTheDot Plot is a summary of where the FOMC members see future interest rates.\nIt's unanimous there will be no hikes this year. And by a 14-4 supermajority there will not be hikes in 2022.\nIn 2023, the expectations are 11-7. Two brave souls actually think the Fed will hike 4 times in 2023. [Note: a reader commented that foolish is a better word than brave. I agree.]\nLonger Run Silliness\nThe longer run is a real hoot. A majority think rates will be 2.5% to 3.0%.\nUS National Debt is over $28 trillion. Click here to see a continually updatedDebt Clockas in every second.\nThree Percent Interest On $28 Trillion\nThree percent of $28 trillion is $840,000,000,000. That's $840 billion annually.\nSome debt will be long-term financed lower, but $28 trillion isn't constant.\nAnd what about future recessions?\nThese projections are nothing more than economic silliness.\nRepeated Error\nFinally, please note Fed hubris. TheFed is Making the Same Inflation Mistakeonce again.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":709,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":65,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/327972105"}
精彩评论