kccc8
2021-04-14
To the moon
GameStop’s stock price is down 50% from the highs — and it’s still crazy<blockquote>游戏驿站股价较高点下跌50%——而且仍然疯狂</blockquote>
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moon","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/344505449","repostId":1190580837,"repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1190580837","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1618369183,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1190580837?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-04-14 10:59","market":"us","language":"en","title":"GameStop’s stock price is down 50% from the highs — and it’s still crazy<blockquote>游戏驿站股价较高点下跌50%——而且仍然疯狂</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1190580837","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"Try justifying GameStop’s valuation\nAFP VIA GETTY IMAGES\nGameStop was not worth owning anywhere abov","content":"<p>Try justifying GameStop’s valuation</p><p><blockquote>尝试证明游戏驿站的估值合理</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1119aca9f23a3b0f456c433b85379801\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"895\"><span>AFP VIA GETTY IMAGES</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>法新社来自盖蒂图片社</span></p></blockquote></p><p> GameStop was not worth owning anywhere above $45 a share, given the company’s fundamentals, as explained when we closed our Focus List: Long positionin the stock in late January.</p><p><blockquote>考虑到该公司的基本面，游戏驿站不值得以每股45美元以上的价格持有，正如我们在1月底关闭焦点名单时所解释的那样：该股的多头头寸。</blockquote></p><p> Nevertheless, the stock went on to climb as high as $347, even higher intraday, before taking a roller coaster path back to around $185.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，该股继续攀升至347美元，盘中甚至更高，然后又像过山车一样回到185美元左右。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c80950e93ac1cd2d0dbc8566c969c599\" tg-width=\"1259\" tg-height=\"582\"><span>SOURCES: NEW CONSTRUCTS LLC AND COMPANY FILINGS</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：NEW CONSTRUCTS LLC和公司文件</span></p></blockquote></p><p> To give readers a sense of just how crazy overvalued the stock was at its peak, we do the math and show how the business would have to perform to justify a share price of $347.</p><p><blockquote>为了让读者了解该股在巅峰时期被高估的程度有多疯狂，我们进行了计算，并展示了该公司必须如何表现才能证明347美元的股价是合理的。</blockquote></p><p> undefined <b>Crazy” at $347 explained: It implies more revenue than Macy’s</b></p><p><blockquote>未定义<b>347美元的疯狂”解释：这意味着比梅西百货更多的收入</b></blockquote></p><p> To justify $347 a share, our reverse discounted cash flow (DCF) model shows that GameStop must:</p><p><blockquote>为了证明每股347美元的合理性，我们的反向贴现现金流(DCF)模型显示游戏驿站必须：</blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>improve its profit margin to 5.5% (10-year average from 2010-19 is 3.9% and the all-time high was 4.8% in 2008) and</li> </ul> <ul> <li>grow revenue by 17% compounded annually through 2030 (above the projected video game industry CAGR of 13% through 2027)</li> </ul> In this scenario, GameStop earns nearly $21 billion in revenue in 2030 or more than the trailing-12-months (TTM) revenue of Macy’s,AutoZone and Chewy.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>将其利润率提高至5.5%（2010-19年的10年平均值为3.9%，2008年的历史高点为4.8%）以及</li></ul><ul><li>到2030年，收入每年复合增长17%（高于视频游戏行业预计到2027年13%的复合年增长率）</li></ul>在这种情况下，游戏驿站到2030年的收入将接近210亿美元，超过梅西百货、AutoZone和Chewy过去12个月(TTM)的收入。</blockquote></p><p> <b>GameStop’s historical revenue vs. DCF implied revenue: Scenario 1</b></p><p><blockquote><b>游戏驿站的历史收入与DCF隐含收入：情景1</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e89fba2f9280e06a4e5c7885cb3b450d\" tg-width=\"1259\" tg-height=\"609\"><span>SOURCES: NEW CONSTRUCTS LLC AND COMPANY FILINGS</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：NEW CONSTRUCTS LLC和公司文件</span></p></blockquote></p><p> For reference, GameStop’s revenue fell by 3% compounded annually from 2009 to 2019.</p><p><blockquote>作为参考，从2009年到2019年，游戏驿站的收入每年复合下降3%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Still Crazy at $185</b></p><p><blockquote><b>185美元仍然疯狂</b></blockquote></p><p> For perspective on the current price, we run the same analysis to show what the company must do to justify $185 a share:</p><p><blockquote>为了深入了解当前价格，我们进行了相同的分析，以显示公司必须采取哪些措施来证明每股185美元的合理性：</blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>immediately improve its profit margin to 4.8% (all-time high in 2008 compared with 0.7% in 2019) and</li> <li>grow revenue by 15% compounded annually through 2027 (above projected videogame industry CAGR of 13% through 2027)</li> </ul> In this scenario, GameStop earns over $11 billion in revenue in 2027, which is 19% higher than GameStop’s record revenue of $9.6 billion in 2012 and the TTM revenue of Nordstrom,Advance Auto Parts and Chewy.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>立即将其利润率提高至4.8%（2008年创历史新高，2019年为0.7%），并</li><li>到2027年，收入每年复合增长15%（高于视频游戏行业预计到2027年13%的复合年增长率）</li></ul>在这种情况下，游戏驿站在2027年的收入将超过110亿美元，比游戏驿站2012年创纪录的96亿美元收入以及Nordstrom、Advance Auto Parts和Chewy的TTM收入高出19%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>GameStop’s historical revenue vs. DCF implied revenue: Scenario 2</b></p><p><blockquote><b>游戏驿站的历史收入与DCF隐含收入：情景2</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e19648dde2ad7aee4127bc22c9a9652e\" tg-width=\"1259\" tg-height=\"609\"><span>SOURCES: NEW CONSTRUCTS LLC AND COMPANY FILINGS</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：NEW CONSTRUCTS LLC和公司文件</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Sure, stock prices can be irrational</b></p><p><blockquote><b>当然，股票价格可能是非理性的</b></blockquote></p><p> We are not saying that fundamentals should be 100% of your investing process. We only aim to add insight into the fundamental risk of owning stocks at different prices.</p><p><blockquote>我们并不是说基本面应该是你投资过程的100%。我们的目的只是加深对以不同价格持有股票的基本风险的了解。</blockquote></p><p> We’re not saying that you will not make lots of money trading stocks. You might. Our aim is to provide some fundamental perspective to inform and complement other investment strategies. In other words, if you have 10 great technical ideas, you might like to overweight those with the best fundamentals and underweight those with weaker fundamentals.</p><p><blockquote>我们并不是说你不会通过股票交易赚很多钱。你可能会。我们的目标是提供一些基本观点，为其他投资策略提供信息和补充。换句话说，如果你有10个伟大的技术想法，你可能会喜欢跑赢大盘那些基本面最好的，跑输大盘那些基本面较弱的。</blockquote></p><p> With a better grasp on fundamentals, investors have a better sense of when to buy and sell – and – know how much risk they take when they own a stock at certain levels.</p><p><blockquote>通过更好地掌握基本面，投资者可以更好地了解何时买入和卖出，并知道当他们在一定水平上持有股票时他们承担了多大的风险。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>GameStop’s stock price is down 50% from the 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.h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nGameStop’s stock price is down 50% from the highs — and it’s still crazy<blockquote>游戏驿站股价较高点下跌50%——而且仍然疯狂</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">MarketWatch</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-04-14 10:59</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Try justifying GameStop’s valuation</p><p><blockquote>尝试证明游戏驿站的估值合理</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1119aca9f23a3b0f456c433b85379801\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"895\"><span>AFP VIA GETTY IMAGES</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>法新社来自盖蒂图片社</span></p></blockquote></p><p> GameStop was not worth owning anywhere above $45 a share, given the company’s fundamentals, as explained when we closed our Focus List: Long positionin the stock in late January.</p><p><blockquote>考虑到该公司的基本面，游戏驿站不值得以每股45美元以上的价格持有，正如我们在1月底关闭焦点名单时所解释的那样：该股的多头头寸。</blockquote></p><p> Nevertheless, the stock went on to climb as high as $347, even higher intraday, before taking a roller coaster path back to around $185.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，该股继续攀升至347美元，盘中甚至更高，然后又像过山车一样回到185美元左右。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c80950e93ac1cd2d0dbc8566c969c599\" tg-width=\"1259\" tg-height=\"582\"><span>SOURCES: NEW CONSTRUCTS LLC AND COMPANY FILINGS</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：NEW CONSTRUCTS LLC和公司文件</span></p></blockquote></p><p> To give readers a sense of just how crazy overvalued the stock was at its peak, we do the math and show how the business would have to perform to justify a share price of $347.</p><p><blockquote>为了让读者了解该股在巅峰时期被高估的程度有多疯狂，我们进行了计算，并展示了该公司必须如何表现才能证明347美元的股价是合理的。</blockquote></p><p> undefined <b>Crazy” at $347 explained: It implies more revenue than Macy’s</b></p><p><blockquote>未定义<b>347美元的疯狂”解释：这意味着比梅西百货更多的收入</b></blockquote></p><p> To justify $347 a share, our reverse discounted cash flow (DCF) model shows that GameStop must:</p><p><blockquote>为了证明每股347美元的合理性，我们的反向贴现现金流(DCF)模型显示游戏驿站必须：</blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>improve its profit margin to 5.5% (10-year average from 2010-19 is 3.9% and the all-time high was 4.8% in 2008) and</li> </ul> <ul> <li>grow revenue by 17% compounded annually through 2030 (above the projected video game industry CAGR of 13% through 2027)</li> </ul> In this scenario, GameStop earns nearly $21 billion in revenue in 2030 or more than the trailing-12-months (TTM) revenue of Macy’s,AutoZone and Chewy.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>将其利润率提高至5.5%（2010-19年的10年平均值为3.9%，2008年的历史高点为4.8%）以及</li></ul><ul><li>到2030年，收入每年复合增长17%（高于视频游戏行业预计到2027年13%的复合年增长率）</li></ul>在这种情况下，游戏驿站到2030年的收入将接近210亿美元，超过梅西百货、AutoZone和Chewy过去12个月(TTM)的收入。</blockquote></p><p> <b>GameStop’s historical revenue vs. DCF implied revenue: Scenario 1</b></p><p><blockquote><b>游戏驿站的历史收入与DCF隐含收入：情景1</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e89fba2f9280e06a4e5c7885cb3b450d\" tg-width=\"1259\" tg-height=\"609\"><span>SOURCES: NEW CONSTRUCTS LLC AND COMPANY FILINGS</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：NEW CONSTRUCTS LLC和公司文件</span></p></blockquote></p><p> For reference, GameStop’s revenue fell by 3% compounded annually from 2009 to 2019.</p><p><blockquote>作为参考，从2009年到2019年，游戏驿站的收入每年复合下降3%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Still Crazy at $185</b></p><p><blockquote><b>185美元仍然疯狂</b></blockquote></p><p> For perspective on the current price, we run the same analysis to show what the company must do to justify $185 a share:</p><p><blockquote>为了深入了解当前价格，我们进行了相同的分析，以显示公司必须采取哪些措施来证明每股185美元的合理性：</blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>immediately improve its profit margin to 4.8% (all-time high in 2008 compared with 0.7% in 2019) and</li> <li>grow revenue by 15% compounded annually through 2027 (above projected videogame industry CAGR of 13% through 2027)</li> </ul> In this scenario, GameStop earns over $11 billion in revenue in 2027, which is 19% higher than GameStop’s record revenue of $9.6 billion in 2012 and the TTM revenue of Nordstrom,Advance Auto Parts and Chewy.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>立即将其利润率提高至4.8%（2008年创历史新高，2019年为0.7%），并</li><li>到2027年，收入每年复合增长15%（高于视频游戏行业预计到2027年13%的复合年增长率）</li></ul>在这种情况下，游戏驿站在2027年的收入将超过110亿美元，比游戏驿站2012年创纪录的96亿美元收入以及Nordstrom、Advance Auto Parts和Chewy的TTM收入高出19%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>GameStop’s historical revenue vs. DCF implied revenue: Scenario 2</b></p><p><blockquote><b>游戏驿站的历史收入与DCF隐含收入：情景2</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e19648dde2ad7aee4127bc22c9a9652e\" tg-width=\"1259\" tg-height=\"609\"><span>SOURCES: NEW CONSTRUCTS LLC AND COMPANY FILINGS</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：NEW CONSTRUCTS LLC和公司文件</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Sure, stock prices can be irrational</b></p><p><blockquote><b>当然，股票价格可能是非理性的</b></blockquote></p><p> We are not saying that fundamentals should be 100% of your investing process. We only aim to add insight into the fundamental risk of owning stocks at different prices.</p><p><blockquote>我们并不是说基本面应该是你投资过程的100%。我们的目的只是加深对以不同价格持有股票的基本风险的了解。</blockquote></p><p> We’re not saying that you will not make lots of money trading stocks. You might. Our aim is to provide some fundamental perspective to inform and complement other investment strategies. In other words, if you have 10 great technical ideas, you might like to overweight those with the best fundamentals and underweight those with weaker fundamentals.</p><p><blockquote>我们并不是说你不会通过股票交易赚很多钱。你可能会。我们的目标是提供一些基本观点，为其他投资策略提供信息和补充。换句话说，如果你有10个伟大的技术想法，你可能会喜欢跑赢大盘那些基本面最好的，跑输大盘那些基本面较弱的。</blockquote></p><p> With a better grasp on fundamentals, investors have a better sense of when to buy and sell – and – know how much risk they take when they own a stock at certain levels.</p><p><blockquote>通过更好地掌握基本面，投资者可以更好地了解何时买入和卖出，并知道当他们在一定水平上持有股票时他们承担了多大的风险。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/gamestops-stock-price-is-down-50-from-the-highs-and-its-still-crazy-11618353535?mod=home-page\">MarketWatch</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"GME":"游戏驿站"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/gamestops-stock-price-is-down-50-from-the-highs-and-its-still-crazy-11618353535?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1190580837","content_text":"Try justifying GameStop’s valuation\nAFP VIA GETTY IMAGES\nGameStop was not worth owning anywhere above $45 a share, given the company’s fundamentals, as explained when we closed our Focus List: Long positionin the stock in late January.\nNevertheless, the stock went on to climb as high as $347, even higher intraday, before taking a roller coaster path back to around $185.\nSOURCES: NEW CONSTRUCTS LLC AND COMPANY FILINGS\nTo give readers a sense of just how crazy overvalued the stock was at its peak, we do the math and show how the business would have to perform to justify a share price of $347.\nundefined Crazy” at $347 explained: It implies more revenue than Macy’s\nTo justify $347 a share, our reverse discounted cash flow (DCF) model shows that GameStop must:\n\nimprove its profit margin to 5.5% (10-year average from 2010-19 is 3.9% and the all-time high was 4.8% in 2008) and\n\n\ngrow revenue by 17% compounded annually through 2030 (above the projected video game industry CAGR of 13% through 2027)\n\nIn this scenario, GameStop earns nearly $21 billion in revenue in 2030 or more than the trailing-12-months (TTM) revenue of Macy’s,AutoZone and Chewy.\nGameStop’s historical revenue vs. DCF implied revenue: Scenario 1\nSOURCES: NEW CONSTRUCTS LLC AND COMPANY FILINGS\nFor reference, GameStop’s revenue fell by 3% compounded annually from 2009 to 2019.\nStill Crazy at $185\nFor perspective on the current price, we run the same analysis to show what the company must do to justify $185 a share:\n\nimmediately improve its profit margin to 4.8% (all-time high in 2008 compared with 0.7% in 2019) and\ngrow revenue by 15% compounded annually through 2027 (above projected videogame industry CAGR of 13% through 2027)\n\nIn this scenario, GameStop earns over $11 billion in revenue in 2027, which is 19% higher than GameStop’s record revenue of $9.6 billion in 2012 and the TTM revenue of Nordstrom,Advance Auto Parts and Chewy.\nGameStop’s historical revenue vs. DCF implied revenue: Scenario 2\nSOURCES: NEW CONSTRUCTS LLC AND COMPANY FILINGS\nSure, stock prices can be irrational\nWe are not saying that fundamentals should be 100% of your investing process. We only aim to add insight into the fundamental risk of owning stocks at different prices.\nWe’re not saying that you will not make lots of money trading stocks. You might. Our aim is to provide some fundamental perspective to inform and complement other investment strategies. In other words, if you have 10 great technical ideas, you might like to overweight those with the best fundamentals and underweight those with weaker fundamentals.\nWith a better grasp on fundamentals, investors have a better sense of when to buy and sell – and – know how much risk they take when they own a stock at certain levels.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"GME":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1616,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":9,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/344505449"}
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