浅水蛟龙
2021-03-22
Why after leave comment, will no Tiger coin?
The Fed May Have Just Sealed The Stock Market's Fate<blockquote>美联储可能刚刚决定了股市的命运</blockquote>
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Members of Reading The Markets get exclusive ideas and guidance to navigate any climate.</li> </ul> The Fed gave the equity market exactly what it wanted, lower for as long as possible. Unfortunately, the bond market doesn't seem as pleased, which will be horrible news for the stock market. Rising rates are crushing growth and technology stocks, and soon the rest of the market will follow because there are very few if any \"cheap\" sectors left in the market.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>美联储尽可能长时间走低的前景正是股市想听到的。</li><li>然而，这导致美国收益率飙升。</li><li>较高的收益率将迫使股票估值大幅重新定价。</li><li>在市场上寻找援助之手？阅读市场的成员可以获得应对任何气候的独家想法和指导。</li></ul>美联储给了股市它想要的东西，尽可能长时间地走低。不幸的是，债券市场似乎并不高兴，这对股市来说将是一个可怕的消息。利率上升正在压垮成长股和科技股，很快市场的其他部分也会效仿，因为市场上几乎没有“廉价”板块。</blockquote></p><p> In essence, the Fed will let the economy run hot, and the bond market does not seem the least bit comfortable with that. Rates are rising sharply on March 18, with the 10-Year now trading just under 1.75%. The curve continues to lift because the bond market fears that a hot economy could quickly overheat, causing prices to rise, and inflation becomes an issue.</p><p><blockquote>从本质上讲，美联储将让经济过热，而债券市场似乎对此一点也不满意。3月18日利率大幅上升，10年期国债收益率目前略低于1.75%。曲线继续抬升，因为债券市场担心火热的经济可能会迅速过热，导致价格上涨，通胀成为一个问题。</blockquote></p><p> It leaves the door open for the Fed to start having to taper its bond purchases and to raise rates much sooner than expected and potentially much faster than indicated. This is resulting in bond yields pushing higher. Additionally, there's a tremendous amount of debt coming to the market, with another round of fiscal stimulus passed, and more supply will need a lot more demand.</p><p><blockquote>这为美联储开始缩减债券购买规模并比预期更快加息敞开了大门，也可能比预期快得多。这导致债券收益率推高。此外，随着另一轮财政刺激计划的通过，大量债务进入市场，更多的供应将需要更多的需求。</blockquote></p><p> While the news at first seems to be everything the stock market wants to hear, it's not good news. In fact, there was very little the Fed could have on March 17 to please both the stock and bond market. The Fed chose to placate the stock market. But stock prices are derived from interest rates, and as interest rates rise, stock prices need to reprice. They have been repricing and shall continue to reprice at lower levels.</p><p><blockquote>虽然这个消息一开始似乎是股市想听到的一切，但这并不是好消息。事实上，美联储在3月17日几乎没有什么可以取悦股市和债市。美联储选择安抚股市。但股价是由利率衍生出来的，随着利率上升，股价需要重新定价。他们一直在重新定价，并将继续以较低的水平重新定价。</blockquote></p><p> The problem is that now, relative to the 10-year note, the S&P 500 has a valuation on par with the periods in January 2018 and October 2018. At no other time in modern history has the index been this expensive on a relative basis in this low-interest rate world. Everything changed in 2008 when we flipped from a high rate to a low rate world, so the period of 1999 would not be a fair comparison.</p><p><blockquote>问题是，现在，相对于10年期国债，标普500的估值与2018年1月和2018年10月期间持平。在现代历史上，在这个低利率的世界里，该指数的相对价格从未如此昂贵。2008年，当我们从高利率转向低利率世界时，一切都发生了变化，所以1999年的时期不是一个公平的比较。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/06eb49f0f96fe3d05081b17e0de7ca77\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"480\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> From another angle, the S&P 500 dividend yield is currently around 1.44%, and it has only been lower one other period in time, at the turn of the century. And now, the 10-Year once again has a higher yield than the S&P 500. So will the 10-Year yield pull the S&P 500 dividend yield over time? It seems possible. Since 2010 the 10-year has traded with a premium over the S&P 500 dividend yield of 21 bps. It is currently 20 bps, which means that a movement high in the 10-year from this point is likely to result in the premium growing wider, or dragging the S&P 500 yield higher along with the 10-year.</p><p><blockquote>从另一个角度来看，标普500的股息收益率目前在1.44%左右，而且只是在世纪之交的另一个时期较低。而现在，10年期国债的收益率再次高于标普500。那么随着时间的推移，10年期国债收益率会拉低标普500的股息收益率吗？似乎有可能。自2010年以来，10年期国债的交易价格比标普500股息收益率溢价21个基点。目前为20个基点，这意味着从此时开始升至10年期高点可能会导致溢价扩大，或拖累标普500收益率与10年期国债收益率一起走高。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6d0b5613b7b88e02f76e004aededbcaa\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"480\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> The rising yields in the bond market have prompted investors to refocus from growth and technology stocks to value and reflation stocks. The problem is that there is no bargain sector left - there's no \"value\" trade. The cheap stocks are cheap for a reason and because they have weak fundamentals. Over the past six months, the top ten holdings in the S&P 500 Value ETF have skyrocketed.</p><p><blockquote>债券市场收益率的上升促使投资者将注意力从成长型和科技股重新转向价值型和通货再膨胀型股票。问题是已经没有便宜货了——没有“价值”贸易。便宜的股票便宜是有原因的，因为它们的基本面很弱。半年来，标普500价值ETF的前十大重仓股暴涨。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <table> <tbody> <tr> <td>Name</td> <td>Symbol</td> <td>3/18/2021</td> <td>10/31/2020</td> <td>% Change</td> </tr> <tr> <td>EXXON MOBIL ORD</td> <td>XOM</td> <td>58.25</td> <td>$ 32.62</td> <td>78.57%</td> </tr> <tr> <td>BANK OF AMERICA ORD</td> <td>BAC</td> <td>39.9274</td> <td>$ 23.70</td> <td>68.47%</td> </tr> <tr> <td>JPMORGAN CHASE ORD</td> <td>JPM</td> <td>161.48</td> <td>$ 98.04</td> <td>64.71%</td> </tr> <tr> <td>WALT DISNEY ORD</td> <td>DIS</td> <td>193.735</td> <td>$ 121.25</td> <td>59.78%</td> </tr> <tr> <td>CHEVRON ORD</td> <td>CVX</td> <td>106.65</td> <td>$ 69.50</td> <td>53.45%</td> </tr> <tr> <td>INTEL ORD</td> <td>INTC.O</td> <td>64.98</td> <td>$ 44.28</td> <td>46.75%</td> </tr> <tr> <td>BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY CL B ORD</td> <td>BRKb</td> <td>255.2</td> <td>$ 201.90</td> <td>26.40%</td> </tr> <tr> <td>JOHNSON & JOHNSON ORD</td> <td>JNJ</td> <td>161.1501</td> <td>$ 137.11</td> <td>17.53%</td> </tr> <tr> <td>AT&T ORD</td> <td>T</td> <td>30.245</td> <td>$ 27.02</td> <td>11.94%</td> </tr> <tr> <td>VERIZON COMMUNICATIONS ORD</td> <td>VZ</td> <td>56.095</td> <td>$ 56.99</td> <td>-1.57%</td> </tr> </tbody> </table> The banks have risen sharply and for good reasons because yields have risen and spreads have widened. But even the banks are getting stretched with many trading at all-time highs, and the sector trading at valuations not witnessed since 2017, relative to the 10-year Treasury rate, making the banks one of the least overvalued sectors. The industrial sector has only been this expensive relative to the 10-year rate one time and that was in January of 2018, which was followed by nearly two years of going nowhere.</p><p><blockquote><table><tbody><tr><td>名字</td><td>象征</td><td>3/18/2021</td><td>10/31/2020</td><td>%变化</td></tr><tr><td>埃克森美孚订单</td><td>XOM</td><td>58.25</td><td>$32.62</td><td>78.57%</td></tr><tr><td>美国银行订单</td><td>BAC</td><td>39.9274</td><td>$23.70</td><td>68.47%</td></tr><tr><td>摩根大通订单</td><td>JPM</td><td>161.48</td><td>$98.04</td><td>64.71%</td></tr><tr><td>迪斯尼秩序</td><td>说</td><td>193.735</td><td>$121.25</td><td>59.78%</td></tr><tr><td>雪佛龙订单</td><td>CVX</td><td>106.65</td><td>$69.50</td><td>53.45%</td></tr><tr><td>英特尔订单</td><td>INTC.O</td><td>64.98</td><td>$44.28</td><td>46.75%</td></tr><tr><td>伯克希尔哈撒韦公司CL B ORD</td><td>BRKb</td><td>255.2</td><td>$201.90</td><td>26.40%</td></tr><tr><td>强生订单</td><td>JNJ</td><td>161.1501</td><td>$137.11</td><td>17.53%</td></tr><tr><td>AT&T订单</td><td>T</td><td>30.245</td><td>$27.02</td><td>11.94%</td></tr><tr><td>威瑞森通信订单</td><td>VZ</td><td>56.095</td><td>$56.99</td><td>-1.57%</td></tr></tbody></table>银行股大幅上涨，这是有充分理由的，因为收益率上升，利差扩大。但即使是银行也变得捉襟见肘，许多银行的交易价格处于历史高位，而且相对于10年期国债利率，该行业的交易估值自2017年以来从未见过，这使得银行成为估值最低的行业之一。工业部门相对于10年期利率只有一次如此昂贵，那是在2018年1月，随后近两年毫无进展。</blockquote></p><p> Sure, there may be some value left out there in the materials and energy sector. But these two sectors are highly correlated to the commodities they represent. As the dollar begins to strengthen, those commodity prices are likely to begin falling rather sharply, dragging the sectors lower with them. That dollar seems poised to rise.</p><p><blockquote>当然，材料和能源行业可能还存在一些价值。但这两个板块与其所代表的大宗商品高度相关。随着美元开始走强，这些大宗商品价格可能会开始大幅下跌，拖累这些行业也随之走低。美元似乎准备升值。</blockquote></p><p> The dollar initially began to fall following the fears of inflation, but that quickly reversed when US rates began to rise again. That allowed the spread between global rates to widen. The spread between the US and German 10-Year now stands at 2%, while US and Japanese 10-years are at 1.65%. The wider the spreads get, the more attractive US yields become. This will bring foreign investors to buy US bonds, sell local currency, and buy US dollars, supporting the dollar and boosting its value.</p><p><blockquote>由于担心通胀，美元最初开始下跌，但当美国利率再次开始上升时，这种情况很快逆转。这使得全球利率之间的利差扩大。美国和德国10年期国债之间的利差目前为2%，而美国和日本10年期国债为1.65%。利差越大，美国收益率就越有吸引力。这将带来外国投资者买入美国债券，卖出本币，买入美元，支撑美元，提振美元价值。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3b38756db2fb8fdb2e613fa9d05a36e7\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"331\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Source: TradingView</p><p><blockquote>资料来源：TradingView</blockquote></p><p> The rising dollar already has helped to bring oil prices off their highs, and that's a trend that's likely to continue as the dollar strengthens further. Oil has already broken down from a technical standpoint after failing at a key level of resistance around $66.50. It has additionally broken a major uptrend, with a drop below $59.50, sending the commodity back to $54. This could easily reverse the very hot rotation into the energy sector.</p><p><blockquote>美元升值已经帮助油价脱离高点，随着美元进一步走强，这一趋势可能会持续下去。从技术角度来看，油价在突破66.50美元左右的关键阻力位后已经突破。此外，它还打破了一个主要的上升趋势，跌破59.50美元，使该商品回到54美元。这很容易扭转能源行业的火爆局面。</blockquote></p><p> Source: TradingView</p><p><blockquote>资料来源：TradingView</blockquote></p><p> If the economy will continue to improve, and the Fed is more than happy to let it, then there's no reason yields shouldn't continue to rise. The more they raise, the more the dollar will strengthen, and the more overvalued equities will grow on a relative basis, forcing a massive repricing.</p><p><blockquote>如果经济将继续改善，并且美联储非常乐意让它继续改善，那么收益率没有理由不继续上升。他们筹集的资金越多，美元就会越走强，相对来说，估值越高的股票就会增长，从而迫使大规模重新定价。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The Fed May Have Just Sealed The Stock Market's Fate<blockquote>美联储可能刚刚决定了股市的命运</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe Fed May Have Just Sealed The Stock Market's Fate<blockquote>美联储可能刚刚决定了股市的命运</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-03-22 08:56</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Summary</p><p><blockquote>总结</blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>The Fed's outlook of lower for as long as possible was just what stocks wanted to hear.</li> <li>However, that has sent US yields soaring.</li> <li>The higher yields will force a massive repricing of equity valuation.</li> <li>Looking for a helping hand in the market? Members of Reading The Markets get exclusive ideas and guidance to navigate any climate.</li> </ul> The Fed gave the equity market exactly what it wanted, lower for as long as possible. Unfortunately, the bond market doesn't seem as pleased, which will be horrible news for the stock market. Rising rates are crushing growth and technology stocks, and soon the rest of the market will follow because there are very few if any \"cheap\" sectors left in the market.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>美联储尽可能长时间走低的前景正是股市想听到的。</li><li>然而，这导致美国收益率飙升。</li><li>较高的收益率将迫使股票估值大幅重新定价。</li><li>在市场上寻找援助之手？阅读市场的成员可以获得应对任何气候的独家想法和指导。</li></ul>美联储给了股市它想要的东西，尽可能长时间地走低。不幸的是，债券市场似乎并不高兴，这对股市来说将是一个可怕的消息。利率上升正在压垮成长股和科技股，很快市场的其他部分也会效仿，因为市场上几乎没有“廉价”板块。</blockquote></p><p> In essence, the Fed will let the economy run hot, and the bond market does not seem the least bit comfortable with that. Rates are rising sharply on March 18, with the 10-Year now trading just under 1.75%. The curve continues to lift because the bond market fears that a hot economy could quickly overheat, causing prices to rise, and inflation becomes an issue.</p><p><blockquote>从本质上讲，美联储将让经济过热，而债券市场似乎对此一点也不满意。3月18日利率大幅上升，10年期国债收益率目前略低于1.75%。曲线继续抬升，因为债券市场担心火热的经济可能会迅速过热，导致价格上涨，通胀成为一个问题。</blockquote></p><p> It leaves the door open for the Fed to start having to taper its bond purchases and to raise rates much sooner than expected and potentially much faster than indicated. This is resulting in bond yields pushing higher. Additionally, there's a tremendous amount of debt coming to the market, with another round of fiscal stimulus passed, and more supply will need a lot more demand.</p><p><blockquote>这为美联储开始缩减债券购买规模并比预期更快加息敞开了大门，也可能比预期快得多。这导致债券收益率推高。此外，随着另一轮财政刺激计划的通过，大量债务进入市场，更多的供应将需要更多的需求。</blockquote></p><p> While the news at first seems to be everything the stock market wants to hear, it's not good news. In fact, there was very little the Fed could have on March 17 to please both the stock and bond market. The Fed chose to placate the stock market. But stock prices are derived from interest rates, and as interest rates rise, stock prices need to reprice. They have been repricing and shall continue to reprice at lower levels.</p><p><blockquote>虽然这个消息一开始似乎是股市想听到的一切，但这并不是好消息。事实上，美联储在3月17日几乎没有什么可以取悦股市和债市。美联储选择安抚股市。但股价是由利率衍生出来的，随着利率上升，股价需要重新定价。他们一直在重新定价，并将继续以较低的水平重新定价。</blockquote></p><p> The problem is that now, relative to the 10-year note, the S&P 500 has a valuation on par with the periods in January 2018 and October 2018. At no other time in modern history has the index been this expensive on a relative basis in this low-interest rate world. Everything changed in 2008 when we flipped from a high rate to a low rate world, so the period of 1999 would not be a fair comparison.</p><p><blockquote>问题是，现在，相对于10年期国债，标普500的估值与2018年1月和2018年10月期间持平。在现代历史上，在这个低利率的世界里，该指数的相对价格从未如此昂贵。2008年，当我们从高利率转向低利率世界时，一切都发生了变化，所以1999年的时期不是一个公平的比较。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/06eb49f0f96fe3d05081b17e0de7ca77\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"480\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> From another angle, the S&P 500 dividend yield is currently around 1.44%, and it has only been lower one other period in time, at the turn of the century. And now, the 10-Year once again has a higher yield than the S&P 500. So will the 10-Year yield pull the S&P 500 dividend yield over time? It seems possible. Since 2010 the 10-year has traded with a premium over the S&P 500 dividend yield of 21 bps. It is currently 20 bps, which means that a movement high in the 10-year from this point is likely to result in the premium growing wider, or dragging the S&P 500 yield higher along with the 10-year.</p><p><blockquote>从另一个角度来看，标普500的股息收益率目前在1.44%左右，而且只是在世纪之交的另一个时期较低。而现在，10年期国债的收益率再次高于标普500。那么随着时间的推移，10年期国债收益率会拉低标普500的股息收益率吗？似乎有可能。自2010年以来，10年期国债的交易价格比标普500股息收益率溢价21个基点。目前为20个基点，这意味着从此时开始升至10年期高点可能会导致溢价扩大，或拖累标普500收益率与10年期国债收益率一起走高。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6d0b5613b7b88e02f76e004aededbcaa\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"480\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> The rising yields in the bond market have prompted investors to refocus from growth and technology stocks to value and reflation stocks. The problem is that there is no bargain sector left - there's no \"value\" trade. The cheap stocks are cheap for a reason and because they have weak fundamentals. Over the past six months, the top ten holdings in the S&P 500 Value ETF have skyrocketed.</p><p><blockquote>债券市场收益率的上升促使投资者将注意力从成长型和科技股重新转向价值型和通货再膨胀型股票。问题是已经没有便宜货了——没有“价值”贸易。便宜的股票便宜是有原因的，因为它们的基本面很弱。半年来，标普500价值ETF的前十大重仓股暴涨。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <table> <tbody> <tr> <td>Name</td> <td>Symbol</td> <td>3/18/2021</td> <td>10/31/2020</td> <td>% Change</td> </tr> <tr> <td>EXXON MOBIL ORD</td> <td>XOM</td> <td>58.25</td> <td>$ 32.62</td> <td>78.57%</td> </tr> <tr> <td>BANK OF AMERICA ORD</td> <td>BAC</td> <td>39.9274</td> <td>$ 23.70</td> <td>68.47%</td> </tr> <tr> <td>JPMORGAN CHASE ORD</td> <td>JPM</td> <td>161.48</td> <td>$ 98.04</td> <td>64.71%</td> </tr> <tr> <td>WALT DISNEY ORD</td> <td>DIS</td> <td>193.735</td> <td>$ 121.25</td> <td>59.78%</td> </tr> <tr> <td>CHEVRON ORD</td> <td>CVX</td> <td>106.65</td> <td>$ 69.50</td> <td>53.45%</td> </tr> <tr> <td>INTEL ORD</td> <td>INTC.O</td> <td>64.98</td> <td>$ 44.28</td> <td>46.75%</td> </tr> <tr> <td>BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY CL B ORD</td> <td>BRKb</td> <td>255.2</td> <td>$ 201.90</td> <td>26.40%</td> </tr> <tr> <td>JOHNSON & JOHNSON ORD</td> <td>JNJ</td> <td>161.1501</td> <td>$ 137.11</td> <td>17.53%</td> </tr> <tr> <td>AT&T ORD</td> <td>T</td> <td>30.245</td> <td>$ 27.02</td> <td>11.94%</td> </tr> <tr> <td>VERIZON COMMUNICATIONS ORD</td> <td>VZ</td> <td>56.095</td> <td>$ 56.99</td> <td>-1.57%</td> </tr> </tbody> </table> The banks have risen sharply and for good reasons because yields have risen and spreads have widened. But even the banks are getting stretched with many trading at all-time highs, and the sector trading at valuations not witnessed since 2017, relative to the 10-year Treasury rate, making the banks one of the least overvalued sectors. The industrial sector has only been this expensive relative to the 10-year rate one time and that was in January of 2018, which was followed by nearly two years of going nowhere.</p><p><blockquote><table><tbody><tr><td>名字</td><td>象征</td><td>3/18/2021</td><td>10/31/2020</td><td>%变化</td></tr><tr><td>埃克森美孚订单</td><td>XOM</td><td>58.25</td><td>$32.62</td><td>78.57%</td></tr><tr><td>美国银行订单</td><td>BAC</td><td>39.9274</td><td>$23.70</td><td>68.47%</td></tr><tr><td>摩根大通订单</td><td>JPM</td><td>161.48</td><td>$98.04</td><td>64.71%</td></tr><tr><td>迪斯尼秩序</td><td>说</td><td>193.735</td><td>$121.25</td><td>59.78%</td></tr><tr><td>雪佛龙订单</td><td>CVX</td><td>106.65</td><td>$69.50</td><td>53.45%</td></tr><tr><td>英特尔订单</td><td>INTC.O</td><td>64.98</td><td>$44.28</td><td>46.75%</td></tr><tr><td>伯克希尔哈撒韦公司CL B ORD</td><td>BRKb</td><td>255.2</td><td>$201.90</td><td>26.40%</td></tr><tr><td>强生订单</td><td>JNJ</td><td>161.1501</td><td>$137.11</td><td>17.53%</td></tr><tr><td>AT&T订单</td><td>T</td><td>30.245</td><td>$27.02</td><td>11.94%</td></tr><tr><td>威瑞森通信订单</td><td>VZ</td><td>56.095</td><td>$56.99</td><td>-1.57%</td></tr></tbody></table>银行股大幅上涨，这是有充分理由的，因为收益率上升，利差扩大。但即使是银行也变得捉襟见肘，许多银行的交易价格处于历史高位，而且相对于10年期国债利率，该行业的交易估值自2017年以来从未见过，这使得银行成为估值最低的行业之一。工业部门相对于10年期利率只有一次如此昂贵，那是在2018年1月，随后近两年毫无进展。</blockquote></p><p> Sure, there may be some value left out there in the materials and energy sector. But these two sectors are highly correlated to the commodities they represent. As the dollar begins to strengthen, those commodity prices are likely to begin falling rather sharply, dragging the sectors lower with them. That dollar seems poised to rise.</p><p><blockquote>当然，材料和能源行业可能还存在一些价值。但这两个板块与其所代表的大宗商品高度相关。随着美元开始走强，这些大宗商品价格可能会开始大幅下跌，拖累这些行业也随之走低。美元似乎准备升值。</blockquote></p><p> The dollar initially began to fall following the fears of inflation, but that quickly reversed when US rates began to rise again. That allowed the spread between global rates to widen. The spread between the US and German 10-Year now stands at 2%, while US and Japanese 10-years are at 1.65%. The wider the spreads get, the more attractive US yields become. This will bring foreign investors to buy US bonds, sell local currency, and buy US dollars, supporting the dollar and boosting its value.</p><p><blockquote>由于担心通胀，美元最初开始下跌，但当美国利率再次开始上升时，这种情况很快逆转。这使得全球利率之间的利差扩大。美国和德国10年期国债之间的利差目前为2%，而美国和日本10年期国债为1.65%。利差越大，美国收益率就越有吸引力。这将带来外国投资者买入美国债券，卖出本币，买入美元，支撑美元，提振美元价值。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3b38756db2fb8fdb2e613fa9d05a36e7\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"331\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Source: TradingView</p><p><blockquote>资料来源：TradingView</blockquote></p><p> The rising dollar already has helped to bring oil prices off their highs, and that's a trend that's likely to continue as the dollar strengthens further. Oil has already broken down from a technical standpoint after failing at a key level of resistance around $66.50. It has additionally broken a major uptrend, with a drop below $59.50, sending the commodity back to $54. This could easily reverse the very hot rotation into the energy sector.</p><p><blockquote>美元升值已经帮助油价脱离高点，随着美元进一步走强，这一趋势可能会持续下去。从技术角度来看，油价在突破66.50美元左右的关键阻力位后已经突破。此外，它还打破了一个主要的上升趋势，跌破59.50美元，使该商品回到54美元。这很容易扭转能源行业的火爆局面。</blockquote></p><p> Source: TradingView</p><p><blockquote>资料来源：TradingView</blockquote></p><p> If the economy will continue to improve, and the Fed is more than happy to let it, then there's no reason yields shouldn't continue to rise. The more they raise, the more the dollar will strengthen, and the more overvalued equities will grow on a relative basis, forcing a massive repricing.</p><p><blockquote>如果经济将继续改善，并且美联储非常乐意让它继续改善，那么收益率没有理由不继续上升。他们筹集的资金越多，美元就会越走强，相对来说，估值越高的股票就会增长，从而迫使大规模重新定价。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4414816-fed-may-just-sealed-stock-markets-fate\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4414816-fed-may-just-sealed-stock-markets-fate","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1160065206","content_text":"Summary\n\nThe Fed's outlook of lower for as long as possible was just what stocks wanted to hear.\nHowever, that has sent US yields soaring.\nThe higher yields will force a massive repricing of equity valuation.\nLooking for a helping hand in the market? Members of Reading The Markets get exclusive ideas and guidance to navigate any climate.\n\nThe Fed gave the equity market exactly what it wanted, lower for as long as possible. Unfortunately, the bond market doesn't seem as pleased, which will be horrible news for the stock market. Rising rates are crushing growth and technology stocks, and soon the rest of the market will follow because there are very few if any \"cheap\" sectors left in the market.\nIn essence, the Fed will let the economy run hot, and the bond market does not seem the least bit comfortable with that. Rates are rising sharply on March 18, with the 10-Year now trading just under 1.75%. The curve continues to lift because the bond market fears that a hot economy could quickly overheat, causing prices to rise, and inflation becomes an issue.\nIt leaves the door open for the Fed to start having to taper its bond purchases and to raise rates much sooner than expected and potentially much faster than indicated. This is resulting in bond yields pushing higher. Additionally, there's a tremendous amount of debt coming to the market, with another round of fiscal stimulus passed, and more supply will need a lot more demand.\nWhile the news at first seems to be everything the stock market wants to hear, it's not good news. In fact, there was very little the Fed could have on March 17 to please both the stock and bond market. The Fed chose to placate the stock market. But stock prices are derived from interest rates, and as interest rates rise, stock prices need to reprice. They have been repricing and shall continue to reprice at lower levels.\nThe problem is that now, relative to the 10-year note, the S&P 500 has a valuation on par with the periods in January 2018 and October 2018. At no other time in modern history has the index been this expensive on a relative basis in this low-interest rate world. Everything changed in 2008 when we flipped from a high rate to a low rate world, so the period of 1999 would not be a fair comparison.\n\nFrom another angle, the S&P 500 dividend yield is currently around 1.44%, and it has only been lower one other period in time, at the turn of the century. And now, the 10-Year once again has a higher yield than the S&P 500. So will the 10-Year yield pull the S&P 500 dividend yield over time? It seems possible. Since 2010 the 10-year has traded with a premium over the S&P 500 dividend yield of 21 bps. It is currently 20 bps, which means that a movement high in the 10-year from this point is likely to result in the premium growing wider, or dragging the S&P 500 yield higher along with the 10-year.\n\nThe rising yields in the bond market have prompted investors to refocus from growth and technology stocks to value and reflation stocks. The problem is that there is no bargain sector left - there's no \"value\" trade. The cheap stocks are cheap for a reason and because they have weak fundamentals. Over the past six months, the top ten holdings in the S&P 500 Value ETF have skyrocketed.\n\n\n\nName\nSymbol\n3/18/2021\n10/31/2020\n% Change\n\n\nEXXON MOBIL ORD\nXOM\n58.25\n$ 32.62\n78.57%\n\n\nBANK OF AMERICA ORD\nBAC\n39.9274\n$ 23.70\n68.47%\n\n\nJPMORGAN CHASE ORD\nJPM\n161.48\n$ 98.04\n64.71%\n\n\nWALT DISNEY ORD\nDIS\n193.735\n$ 121.25\n59.78%\n\n\nCHEVRON ORD\nCVX\n106.65\n$ 69.50\n53.45%\n\n\nINTEL ORD\nINTC.O\n64.98\n$ 44.28\n46.75%\n\n\nBERKSHIRE HATHAWAY CL B ORD\nBRKb\n255.2\n$ 201.90\n26.40%\n\n\nJOHNSON & JOHNSON ORD\nJNJ\n161.1501\n$ 137.11\n17.53%\n\n\nAT&T ORD\nT\n30.245\n$ 27.02\n11.94%\n\n\nVERIZON COMMUNICATIONS ORD\nVZ\n56.095\n$ 56.99\n-1.57%\n\n\n\nThe banks have risen sharply and for good reasons because yields have risen and spreads have widened. But even the banks are getting stretched with many trading at all-time highs, and the sector trading at valuations not witnessed since 2017, relative to the 10-year Treasury rate, making the banks one of the least overvalued sectors. The industrial sector has only been this expensive relative to the 10-year rate one time and that was in January of 2018, which was followed by nearly two years of going nowhere.\nSure, there may be some value left out there in the materials and energy sector. But these two sectors are highly correlated to the commodities they represent. As the dollar begins to strengthen, those commodity prices are likely to begin falling rather sharply, dragging the sectors lower with them. That dollar seems poised to rise.\nThe dollar initially began to fall following the fears of inflation, but that quickly reversed when US rates began to rise again. That allowed the spread between global rates to widen. The spread between the US and German 10-Year now stands at 2%, while US and Japanese 10-years are at 1.65%. The wider the spreads get, the more attractive US yields become. This will bring foreign investors to buy US bonds, sell local currency, and buy US dollars, supporting the dollar and boosting its value.\n\nSource: TradingView\nThe rising dollar already has helped to bring oil prices off their highs, and that's a trend that's likely to continue as the dollar strengthens further. Oil has already broken down from a technical standpoint after failing at a key level of resistance around $66.50. It has additionally broken a major uptrend, with a drop below $59.50, sending the commodity back to $54. This could easily reverse the very hot rotation into the energy sector.\nSource: TradingView\nIf the economy will continue to improve, and the Fed is more than happy to let it, then there's no reason yields shouldn't continue to rise. The more they raise, the more the dollar will strengthen, and the more overvalued equities will grow on a relative basis, forcing a massive repricing.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":403,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":37,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/359150111"}
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