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2021-03-22
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The Fed May Have Just Sealed The Stock Market's Fate<blockquote>美联储可能刚刚决定了股市的命运</blockquote>
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Members of Reading The Markets get exclusive ideas and guidance to navigate any climate.</li> </ul> The Fed gave the equity market exactly what it wanted, lower for as long as possible. Unfortunately, the bond market doesn't seem as pleased, which will be horrible news for the stock market. Rising rates are crushing growth and technology stocks, and soon the rest of the market will follow because there are very few if any \"cheap\" sectors left in the market.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>美联储尽可能长时间地降低利率的前景正是股市希望听到的。</li><li>然而，这导致我们的收益率飙升。</li><li>更高的收益率将迫使股票估值大幅重新定价。</li><li>在市场上寻找帮助？阅读市场的会员可以获得独家的想法和指导，以适应任何气候。</li></ul>美联储给了股市它想要的，尽可能长时间地走低。不幸的是，债券市场似乎并不那么高兴，这对股市来说将是一个可怕的消息。利率上升正在压垮成长型和科技股，很快市场的其他部分也将紧随其后，因为市场上几乎没有“便宜”的板块了。</blockquote></p><p> In essence, the Fed will let the economy run hot, and the bond market does not seem the least bit comfortable with that. Rates are rising sharply on March 18, with the 10-Year now trading just under 1.75%. The curve continues to lift because the bond market fears that a hot economy could quickly overheat, causing prices to rise, and inflation becomes an issue.</p><p><blockquote>从本质上讲，美联储会让经济过热，而债券市场似乎对此一点也不舒服。3 月 18 日利率大幅上升，10 年期国债目前交易价格略低于 1.75%。曲线继续上升，因为债券市场担心过热的经济可能会迅速过热，导致价格上涨，通货膨胀成为一个问题。</blockquote></p><p> It leaves the door open for the Fed to start having to taper its bond purchases and to raise rates much sooner than expected and potentially much faster than indicated. This is resulting in bond yields pushing higher. Additionally, there's a tremendous amount of debt coming to the market, with another round of fiscal stimulus passed, and more supply will need a lot more demand.</p><p><blockquote>这为美联储开始缩减债券购买规模并比预期更早、甚至可能比预期更快地加息打开了大门。这导致债券收益率走高。此外，随着新一轮财政刺激计划的通过，大量债务流入市场，更多的供应将需要更多的需求。</blockquote></p><p> While the news at first seems to be everything the stock market wants to hear, it's not good news. In fact, there was very little the Fed could have on March 17 to please both the stock and bond market. The Fed chose to placate the stock market. But stock prices are derived from interest rates, and as interest rates rise, stock prices need to reprice. They have been repricing and shall continue to reprice at lower levels.</p><p><blockquote>虽然这个消息乍一看似乎是股市想听到的一切，但这并不是好消息。事实上，美联储在3月17日几乎没有什么能让股市和债市满意。美联储选择安抚股市。但股票价格来源于利率，随着利率上升，股票价格需要重新定价。他们一直在重新定价，并将继续在较低水平重新定价。</blockquote></p><p> The problem is that now, relative to the 10-year note, the S&P 500 has a valuation on par with the periods in January 2018 and October 2018. At no other time in modern history has the index been this expensive on a relative basis in this low-interest rate world. Everything changed in 2008 when we flipped from a high rate to a low rate world, so the period of 1999 would not be a fair comparison.</p><p><blockquote>问题是，现在，相对于10年期票据，标普500的估值与2018年1月和2018年10月期间相当。在这个低利率的世界里，该指数的相对价格从未如此昂贵。2008年，当我们从高利率转向低利率世界时，一切都发生了变化，所以1999年的时期不是一个公平的比较。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/06eb49f0f96fe3d05081b17e0de7ca77\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"480\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> From another angle, the S&P 500 dividend yield is currently around 1.44%, and it has only been lower one other period in time, at the turn of the century. And now, the 10-Year once again has a higher yield than the S&P 500. So will the 10-Year yield pull the S&P 500 dividend yield over time? It seems possible. Since 2010 the 10-year has traded with a premium over the S&P 500 dividend yield of 21 bps. It is currently 20 bps, which means that a movement high in the 10-year from this point is likely to result in the premium growing wider, or dragging the S&P 500 yield higher along with the 10-year.</p><p><blockquote>从另一个角度来看，标普500的股息收益率目前约为1.44%，只是在世纪之交的另一个时期更低。现在，10年期国债的收益率再次高于标普500。那么，随着时间的推移，10年期收益率会拉低标普500股息收益率吗？似乎有可能。自 2010 年以来，10 年期国债的交易价格比标普500股息收益率溢价 21 个基点。目前为 20 个基点，这意味着从这一点开始，10 年期国债的高位移动可能会导致溢价扩大，或者拖累标普500收益率随着 10 年期国债的走高。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6d0b5613b7b88e02f76e004aededbcaa\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"480\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> The rising yields in the bond market have prompted investors to refocus from growth and technology stocks to value and reflation stocks. The problem is that there is no bargain sector left - there's no \"value\" trade. The cheap stocks are cheap for a reason and because they have weak fundamentals. Over the past six months, the top ten holdings in the S&P 500 Value ETF have skyrocketed.</p><p><blockquote>债券市场收益率上升促使投资者将注意力从成长型和科技股重新转向价值型和通货膨胀型股票。问题是没有讨价还价的部门了——没有“价值”贸易。廉价股票便宜是有原因的，因为它们的基本面薄弱。过去六个月，标普500价值ETF的前十大持仓量飙升。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <table> <tbody> <tr> <td>Name</td> <td>Symbol</td> <td>3/18/2021</td> <td>10/31/2020</td> <td>% Change</td> </tr> <tr> <td>EXXON MOBIL ORD</td> <td>XOM</td> <td>58.25</td> <td>$ 32.62</td> <td>78.57%</td> </tr> <tr> <td>BANK OF AMERICA ORD</td> <td>BAC</td> <td>39.9274</td> <td>$ 23.70</td> <td>68.47%</td> </tr> <tr> <td>JPMORGAN CHASE ORD</td> <td>JPM</td> <td>161.48</td> <td>$ 98.04</td> <td>64.71%</td> </tr> <tr> <td>WALT DISNEY ORD</td> <td>DIS</td> <td>193.735</td> <td>$ 121.25</td> <td>59.78%</td> </tr> <tr> <td>CHEVRON ORD</td> <td>CVX</td> <td>106.65</td> <td>$ 69.50</td> <td>53.45%</td> </tr> <tr> <td>INTEL ORD</td> <td>INTC.O</td> <td>64.98</td> <td>$ 44.28</td> <td>46.75%</td> </tr> <tr> <td>BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY CL B ORD</td> <td>BRKb</td> <td>255.2</td> <td>$ 201.90</td> <td>26.40%</td> </tr> <tr> <td>JOHNSON & JOHNSON ORD</td> <td>JNJ</td> <td>161.1501</td> <td>$ 137.11</td> <td>17.53%</td> </tr> <tr> <td>AT&T ORD</td> <td>T</td> <td>30.245</td> <td>$ 27.02</td> <td>11.94%</td> </tr> <tr> <td>VERIZON COMMUNICATIONS ORD</td> <td>VZ</td> <td>56.095</td> <td>$ 56.99</td> <td>-1.57%</td> </tr> </tbody> </table> The banks have risen sharply and for good reasons because yields have risen and spreads have widened. But even the banks are getting stretched with many trading at all-time highs, and the sector trading at valuations not witnessed since 2017, relative to the 10-year Treasury rate, making the banks one of the least overvalued sectors. The industrial sector has only been this expensive relative to the 10-year rate one time and that was in January of 2018, which was followed by nearly two years of going nowhere.</p><p><blockquote><table><tbody><tr><td>名字</td><td>象征</td><td>3/18/2021</td><td>10/31/2020</td><td>%变化</td></tr><tr><td>埃克森美孚ORD</td><td>生的</td><td>58.25</td><td>$32.62</td><td>78.57%</td></tr><tr><td>美国银行秩序</td><td>巴克</td><td>39.9274</td><td>$23.70</td><td>68.47%</td></tr><tr><td>摩根大通ORD</td><td>摩根大通</td><td>161.48</td><td>$98.04</td><td>64.71%</td></tr><tr><td>沃尔特·迪士尼</td><td>迪斯</td><td>193.735</td><td>$121.25</td><td>59.78%</td></tr><tr><td>人字形字</td><td>CVX</td><td>106.65</td><td>$69.50</td><td>53.45%</td></tr><tr><td>英特尔字</td><td>国际组织</td><td>64.98</td><td>$44.28</td><td>46.75%</td></tr><tr><td>伯克希尔哈撒韦公司 CL B ORD</td><td>布尔克布</td><td>255.2</td><td>$201.90</td><td>26.40%</td></tr><tr><td>强生公司</td><td>JNJ</td><td>161.1501</td><td>$137.11</td><td>17.53%</td></tr><tr><td>美国电话电报公司</td><td>T</td><td>30.245</td><td>$27.02</td><td>11.94%</td></tr><tr><td>威瑞森通信订单</td><td>VZ</td><td>56.095</td><td>$56.99</td><td>-1.57%</td></tr></tbody></table>银行股大幅上涨，这是有充分理由的，因为收益率上升，利差扩大。但即使是银行也因许多交易处于历史高位而捉襟见肘，相对于 10 年期国债利率，该行业的估值自 2017 年以来从未见过，这使得银行成为估值最低的行业之一。相对于 10 年期利率，工业部门只出现过一次如此昂贵的情况，那是在 2018 年 1 月，随后近两年毫无进展。</blockquote></p><p> Sure, there may be some value left out there in the materials and energy sector. But these two sectors are highly correlated to the commodities they represent. As the dollar begins to strengthen, those commodity prices are likely to begin falling rather sharply, dragging the sectors lower with them. That dollar seems poised to rise.</p><p><blockquote>当然，材料和能源领域可能还有一些价值。但这两个部门与它们所代表的商品高度相关。随着美元开始走强，这些大宗商品价格可能会开始大幅下跌，从而拖累各行业走低。美元似乎准备上涨。</blockquote></p><p> The dollar initially began to fall following the fears of inflation, but that quickly reversed when US rates began to rise again. That allowed the spread between global rates to widen. The spread between the US and German 10-Year now stands at 2%, while US and Japanese 10-years are at 1.65%. The wider the spreads get, the more attractive US yields become. This will bring foreign investors to buy US bonds, sell local currency, and buy US dollars, supporting the dollar and boosting its value.</p><p><blockquote>由于对通胀的担忧，美元最初开始下跌，但当美国利率开始再次上升时，这种情况很快逆转。这使得全球利率之间的利差扩大。美国和德国10年期国债之间的利差目前为2%，而美国和日本10年期国债之间的利差为1.65%。利差越大，美国收益率就越有吸引力。这将带来外国投资者买入美国债券，卖出本币，买入美元，支撑美元并提振其价值。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3b38756db2fb8fdb2e613fa9d05a36e7\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"331\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Source: TradingView</p><p><blockquote>来源：TradingView</blockquote></p><p> The rising dollar already has helped to bring oil prices off their highs, and that's a trend that's likely to continue as the dollar strengthens further. Oil has already broken down from a technical standpoint after failing at a key level of resistance around $66.50. It has additionally broken a major uptrend, with a drop below $59.50, sending the commodity back to $54. This could easily reverse the very hot rotation into the energy sector.</p><p><blockquote>美元升值已经帮助油价摆脱高位，随着美元进一步走强，这一趋势可能会继续下去。从技术角度来看，油价在跌破 66.50 美元左右的关键阻力位后已经下跌。它还打破了一个主要的上升趋势，跌破59.50美元，使大宗商品回到54美元。这可以很容易地扭转能源领域的火热轮换。</blockquote></p><p> Source: TradingView</p><p><blockquote>来源：TradingView</blockquote></p><p> If the economy will continue to improve, and the Fed is more than happy to let it, then there's no reason yields shouldn't continue to rise. The more they raise, the more the dollar will strengthen, and the more overvalued equities will grow on a relative basis, forcing a massive repricing.</p><p><blockquote>如果经济将继续改善，并且美联储非常乐意允许这种情况发生，那么收益率没有理由不继续上升。他们筹集的资金越多，美元就会走强，被高估的股票就会相对增长，迫使大规模重新定价。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The Fed May Have Just Sealed The Stock Market's Fate<blockquote>美联储可能刚刚决定了股市的命运</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe Fed May Have Just Sealed The Stock Market's Fate<blockquote>美联储可能刚刚决定了股市的命运</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-03-22 08:56</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Summary</p><p><blockquote>总结</blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>The Fed's outlook of lower for as long as possible was just what stocks wanted to hear.</li> <li>However, that has sent US yields soaring.</li> <li>The higher yields will force a massive repricing of equity valuation.</li> <li>Looking for a helping hand in the market? Members of Reading The Markets get exclusive ideas and guidance to navigate any climate.</li> </ul> The Fed gave the equity market exactly what it wanted, lower for as long as possible. Unfortunately, the bond market doesn't seem as pleased, which will be horrible news for the stock market. Rising rates are crushing growth and technology stocks, and soon the rest of the market will follow because there are very few if any \"cheap\" sectors left in the market.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>美联储尽可能长时间地降低利率的前景正是股市希望听到的。</li><li>然而，这导致我们的收益率飙升。</li><li>更高的收益率将迫使股票估值大幅重新定价。</li><li>在市场上寻找帮助？阅读市场的会员可以获得独家的想法和指导，以适应任何气候。</li></ul>美联储给了股市它想要的，尽可能长时间地走低。不幸的是，债券市场似乎并不那么高兴，这对股市来说将是一个可怕的消息。利率上升正在压垮成长型和科技股，很快市场的其他部分也将紧随其后，因为市场上几乎没有“便宜”的板块了。</blockquote></p><p> In essence, the Fed will let the economy run hot, and the bond market does not seem the least bit comfortable with that. Rates are rising sharply on March 18, with the 10-Year now trading just under 1.75%. The curve continues to lift because the bond market fears that a hot economy could quickly overheat, causing prices to rise, and inflation becomes an issue.</p><p><blockquote>从本质上讲，美联储会让经济过热，而债券市场似乎对此一点也不舒服。3 月 18 日利率大幅上升，10 年期国债目前交易价格略低于 1.75%。曲线继续上升，因为债券市场担心过热的经济可能会迅速过热，导致价格上涨，通货膨胀成为一个问题。</blockquote></p><p> It leaves the door open for the Fed to start having to taper its bond purchases and to raise rates much sooner than expected and potentially much faster than indicated. This is resulting in bond yields pushing higher. Additionally, there's a tremendous amount of debt coming to the market, with another round of fiscal stimulus passed, and more supply will need a lot more demand.</p><p><blockquote>这为美联储开始缩减债券购买规模并比预期更早、甚至可能比预期更快地加息打开了大门。这导致债券收益率走高。此外，随着新一轮财政刺激计划的通过，大量债务流入市场，更多的供应将需要更多的需求。</blockquote></p><p> While the news at first seems to be everything the stock market wants to hear, it's not good news. In fact, there was very little the Fed could have on March 17 to please both the stock and bond market. The Fed chose to placate the stock market. But stock prices are derived from interest rates, and as interest rates rise, stock prices need to reprice. They have been repricing and shall continue to reprice at lower levels.</p><p><blockquote>虽然这个消息乍一看似乎是股市想听到的一切，但这并不是好消息。事实上，美联储在3月17日几乎没有什么能让股市和债市满意。美联储选择安抚股市。但股票价格来源于利率，随着利率上升，股票价格需要重新定价。他们一直在重新定价，并将继续在较低水平重新定价。</blockquote></p><p> The problem is that now, relative to the 10-year note, the S&P 500 has a valuation on par with the periods in January 2018 and October 2018. At no other time in modern history has the index been this expensive on a relative basis in this low-interest rate world. Everything changed in 2008 when we flipped from a high rate to a low rate world, so the period of 1999 would not be a fair comparison.</p><p><blockquote>问题是，现在，相对于10年期票据，标普500的估值与2018年1月和2018年10月期间相当。在这个低利率的世界里，该指数的相对价格从未如此昂贵。2008年，当我们从高利率转向低利率世界时，一切都发生了变化，所以1999年的时期不是一个公平的比较。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/06eb49f0f96fe3d05081b17e0de7ca77\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"480\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> From another angle, the S&P 500 dividend yield is currently around 1.44%, and it has only been lower one other period in time, at the turn of the century. And now, the 10-Year once again has a higher yield than the S&P 500. So will the 10-Year yield pull the S&P 500 dividend yield over time? It seems possible. Since 2010 the 10-year has traded with a premium over the S&P 500 dividend yield of 21 bps. It is currently 20 bps, which means that a movement high in the 10-year from this point is likely to result in the premium growing wider, or dragging the S&P 500 yield higher along with the 10-year.</p><p><blockquote>从另一个角度来看，标普500的股息收益率目前约为1.44%，只是在世纪之交的另一个时期更低。现在，10年期国债的收益率再次高于标普500。那么，随着时间的推移，10年期收益率会拉低标普500股息收益率吗？似乎有可能。自 2010 年以来，10 年期国债的交易价格比标普500股息收益率溢价 21 个基点。目前为 20 个基点，这意味着从这一点开始，10 年期国债的高位移动可能会导致溢价扩大，或者拖累标普500收益率随着 10 年期国债的走高。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6d0b5613b7b88e02f76e004aededbcaa\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"480\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> The rising yields in the bond market have prompted investors to refocus from growth and technology stocks to value and reflation stocks. The problem is that there is no bargain sector left - there's no \"value\" trade. The cheap stocks are cheap for a reason and because they have weak fundamentals. Over the past six months, the top ten holdings in the S&P 500 Value ETF have skyrocketed.</p><p><blockquote>债券市场收益率上升促使投资者将注意力从成长型和科技股重新转向价值型和通货膨胀型股票。问题是没有讨价还价的部门了——没有“价值”贸易。廉价股票便宜是有原因的，因为它们的基本面薄弱。过去六个月，标普500价值ETF的前十大持仓量飙升。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <table> <tbody> <tr> <td>Name</td> <td>Symbol</td> <td>3/18/2021</td> <td>10/31/2020</td> <td>% Change</td> </tr> <tr> <td>EXXON MOBIL ORD</td> <td>XOM</td> <td>58.25</td> <td>$ 32.62</td> <td>78.57%</td> </tr> <tr> <td>BANK OF AMERICA ORD</td> <td>BAC</td> <td>39.9274</td> <td>$ 23.70</td> <td>68.47%</td> </tr> <tr> <td>JPMORGAN CHASE ORD</td> <td>JPM</td> <td>161.48</td> <td>$ 98.04</td> <td>64.71%</td> </tr> <tr> <td>WALT DISNEY ORD</td> <td>DIS</td> <td>193.735</td> <td>$ 121.25</td> <td>59.78%</td> </tr> <tr> <td>CHEVRON ORD</td> <td>CVX</td> <td>106.65</td> <td>$ 69.50</td> <td>53.45%</td> </tr> <tr> <td>INTEL ORD</td> <td>INTC.O</td> <td>64.98</td> <td>$ 44.28</td> <td>46.75%</td> </tr> <tr> <td>BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY CL B ORD</td> <td>BRKb</td> <td>255.2</td> <td>$ 201.90</td> <td>26.40%</td> </tr> <tr> <td>JOHNSON & JOHNSON ORD</td> <td>JNJ</td> <td>161.1501</td> <td>$ 137.11</td> <td>17.53%</td> </tr> <tr> <td>AT&T ORD</td> <td>T</td> <td>30.245</td> <td>$ 27.02</td> <td>11.94%</td> </tr> <tr> <td>VERIZON COMMUNICATIONS ORD</td> <td>VZ</td> <td>56.095</td> <td>$ 56.99</td> <td>-1.57%</td> </tr> </tbody> </table> The banks have risen sharply and for good reasons because yields have risen and spreads have widened. But even the banks are getting stretched with many trading at all-time highs, and the sector trading at valuations not witnessed since 2017, relative to the 10-year Treasury rate, making the banks one of the least overvalued sectors. The industrial sector has only been this expensive relative to the 10-year rate one time and that was in January of 2018, which was followed by nearly two years of going nowhere.</p><p><blockquote><table><tbody><tr><td>名字</td><td>象征</td><td>3/18/2021</td><td>10/31/2020</td><td>%变化</td></tr><tr><td>埃克森美孚ORD</td><td>生的</td><td>58.25</td><td>$32.62</td><td>78.57%</td></tr><tr><td>美国银行秩序</td><td>巴克</td><td>39.9274</td><td>$23.70</td><td>68.47%</td></tr><tr><td>摩根大通ORD</td><td>摩根大通</td><td>161.48</td><td>$98.04</td><td>64.71%</td></tr><tr><td>沃尔特·迪士尼</td><td>迪斯</td><td>193.735</td><td>$121.25</td><td>59.78%</td></tr><tr><td>人字形字</td><td>CVX</td><td>106.65</td><td>$69.50</td><td>53.45%</td></tr><tr><td>英特尔字</td><td>国际组织</td><td>64.98</td><td>$44.28</td><td>46.75%</td></tr><tr><td>伯克希尔哈撒韦公司 CL B ORD</td><td>布尔克布</td><td>255.2</td><td>$201.90</td><td>26.40%</td></tr><tr><td>强生公司</td><td>JNJ</td><td>161.1501</td><td>$137.11</td><td>17.53%</td></tr><tr><td>美国电话电报公司</td><td>T</td><td>30.245</td><td>$27.02</td><td>11.94%</td></tr><tr><td>威瑞森通信订单</td><td>VZ</td><td>56.095</td><td>$56.99</td><td>-1.57%</td></tr></tbody></table>银行股大幅上涨，这是有充分理由的，因为收益率上升，利差扩大。但即使是银行也因许多交易处于历史高位而捉襟见肘，相对于 10 年期国债利率，该行业的估值自 2017 年以来从未见过，这使得银行成为估值最低的行业之一。相对于 10 年期利率，工业部门只出现过一次如此昂贵的情况，那是在 2018 年 1 月，随后近两年毫无进展。</blockquote></p><p> Sure, there may be some value left out there in the materials and energy sector. But these two sectors are highly correlated to the commodities they represent. As the dollar begins to strengthen, those commodity prices are likely to begin falling rather sharply, dragging the sectors lower with them. That dollar seems poised to rise.</p><p><blockquote>当然，材料和能源领域可能还有一些价值。但这两个部门与它们所代表的商品高度相关。随着美元开始走强，这些大宗商品价格可能会开始大幅下跌，从而拖累各行业走低。美元似乎准备上涨。</blockquote></p><p> The dollar initially began to fall following the fears of inflation, but that quickly reversed when US rates began to rise again. That allowed the spread between global rates to widen. The spread between the US and German 10-Year now stands at 2%, while US and Japanese 10-years are at 1.65%. The wider the spreads get, the more attractive US yields become. This will bring foreign investors to buy US bonds, sell local currency, and buy US dollars, supporting the dollar and boosting its value.</p><p><blockquote>由于对通胀的担忧，美元最初开始下跌，但当美国利率开始再次上升时，这种情况很快逆转。这使得全球利率之间的利差扩大。美国和德国10年期国债之间的利差目前为2%，而美国和日本10年期国债之间的利差为1.65%。利差越大，美国收益率就越有吸引力。这将带来外国投资者买入美国债券，卖出本币，买入美元，支撑美元并提振其价值。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3b38756db2fb8fdb2e613fa9d05a36e7\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"331\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Source: TradingView</p><p><blockquote>来源：TradingView</blockquote></p><p> The rising dollar already has helped to bring oil prices off their highs, and that's a trend that's likely to continue as the dollar strengthens further. Oil has already broken down from a technical standpoint after failing at a key level of resistance around $66.50. It has additionally broken a major uptrend, with a drop below $59.50, sending the commodity back to $54. This could easily reverse the very hot rotation into the energy sector.</p><p><blockquote>美元升值已经帮助油价摆脱高位，随着美元进一步走强，这一趋势可能会继续下去。从技术角度来看，油价在跌破 66.50 美元左右的关键阻力位后已经下跌。它还打破了一个主要的上升趋势，跌破59.50美元，使大宗商品回到54美元。这可以很容易地扭转能源领域的火热轮换。</blockquote></p><p> Source: TradingView</p><p><blockquote>来源：TradingView</blockquote></p><p> If the economy will continue to improve, and the Fed is more than happy to let it, then there's no reason yields shouldn't continue to rise. The more they raise, the more the dollar will strengthen, and the more overvalued equities will grow on a relative basis, forcing a massive repricing.</p><p><blockquote>如果经济将继续改善，并且美联储非常乐意允许这种情况发生，那么收益率没有理由不继续上升。他们筹集的资金越多，美元就会走强，被高估的股票就会相对增长，迫使大规模重新定价。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4414816-fed-may-just-sealed-stock-markets-fate\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4414816-fed-may-just-sealed-stock-markets-fate","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1160065206","content_text":"Summary\n\nThe Fed's outlook of lower for as long as possible was just what stocks wanted to hear.\nHowever, that has sent US yields soaring.\nThe higher yields will force a massive repricing of equity valuation.\nLooking for a helping hand in the market? Members of Reading The Markets get exclusive ideas and guidance to navigate any climate.\n\nThe Fed gave the equity market exactly what it wanted, lower for as long as possible. Unfortunately, the bond market doesn't seem as pleased, which will be horrible news for the stock market. Rising rates are crushing growth and technology stocks, and soon the rest of the market will follow because there are very few if any \"cheap\" sectors left in the market.\nIn essence, the Fed will let the economy run hot, and the bond market does not seem the least bit comfortable with that. Rates are rising sharply on March 18, with the 10-Year now trading just under 1.75%. The curve continues to lift because the bond market fears that a hot economy could quickly overheat, causing prices to rise, and inflation becomes an issue.\nIt leaves the door open for the Fed to start having to taper its bond purchases and to raise rates much sooner than expected and potentially much faster than indicated. This is resulting in bond yields pushing higher. Additionally, there's a tremendous amount of debt coming to the market, with another round of fiscal stimulus passed, and more supply will need a lot more demand.\nWhile the news at first seems to be everything the stock market wants to hear, it's not good news. In fact, there was very little the Fed could have on March 17 to please both the stock and bond market. The Fed chose to placate the stock market. But stock prices are derived from interest rates, and as interest rates rise, stock prices need to reprice. They have been repricing and shall continue to reprice at lower levels.\nThe problem is that now, relative to the 10-year note, the S&P 500 has a valuation on par with the periods in January 2018 and October 2018. At no other time in modern history has the index been this expensive on a relative basis in this low-interest rate world. Everything changed in 2008 when we flipped from a high rate to a low rate world, so the period of 1999 would not be a fair comparison.\n\nFrom another angle, the S&P 500 dividend yield is currently around 1.44%, and it has only been lower one other period in time, at the turn of the century. And now, the 10-Year once again has a higher yield than the S&P 500. So will the 10-Year yield pull the S&P 500 dividend yield over time? It seems possible. Since 2010 the 10-year has traded with a premium over the S&P 500 dividend yield of 21 bps. It is currently 20 bps, which means that a movement high in the 10-year from this point is likely to result in the premium growing wider, or dragging the S&P 500 yield higher along with the 10-year.\n\nThe rising yields in the bond market have prompted investors to refocus from growth and technology stocks to value and reflation stocks. The problem is that there is no bargain sector left - there's no \"value\" trade. The cheap stocks are cheap for a reason and because they have weak fundamentals. Over the past six months, the top ten holdings in the S&P 500 Value ETF have skyrocketed.\n\n\n\nName\nSymbol\n3/18/2021\n10/31/2020\n% Change\n\n\nEXXON MOBIL ORD\nXOM\n58.25\n$ 32.62\n78.57%\n\n\nBANK OF AMERICA ORD\nBAC\n39.9274\n$ 23.70\n68.47%\n\n\nJPMORGAN CHASE ORD\nJPM\n161.48\n$ 98.04\n64.71%\n\n\nWALT DISNEY ORD\nDIS\n193.735\n$ 121.25\n59.78%\n\n\nCHEVRON ORD\nCVX\n106.65\n$ 69.50\n53.45%\n\n\nINTEL ORD\nINTC.O\n64.98\n$ 44.28\n46.75%\n\n\nBERKSHIRE HATHAWAY CL B ORD\nBRKb\n255.2\n$ 201.90\n26.40%\n\n\nJOHNSON & JOHNSON ORD\nJNJ\n161.1501\n$ 137.11\n17.53%\n\n\nAT&T ORD\nT\n30.245\n$ 27.02\n11.94%\n\n\nVERIZON COMMUNICATIONS ORD\nVZ\n56.095\n$ 56.99\n-1.57%\n\n\n\nThe banks have risen sharply and for good reasons because yields have risen and spreads have widened. But even the banks are getting stretched with many trading at all-time highs, and the sector trading at valuations not witnessed since 2017, relative to the 10-year Treasury rate, making the banks one of the least overvalued sectors. The industrial sector has only been this expensive relative to the 10-year rate one time and that was in January of 2018, which was followed by nearly two years of going nowhere.\nSure, there may be some value left out there in the materials and energy sector. But these two sectors are highly correlated to the commodities they represent. As the dollar begins to strengthen, those commodity prices are likely to begin falling rather sharply, dragging the sectors lower with them. That dollar seems poised to rise.\nThe dollar initially began to fall following the fears of inflation, but that quickly reversed when US rates began to rise again. That allowed the spread between global rates to widen. The spread between the US and German 10-Year now stands at 2%, while US and Japanese 10-years are at 1.65%. The wider the spreads get, the more attractive US yields become. This will bring foreign investors to buy US bonds, sell local currency, and buy US dollars, supporting the dollar and boosting its value.\n\nSource: TradingView\nThe rising dollar already has helped to bring oil prices off their highs, and that's a trend that's likely to continue as the dollar strengthens further. Oil has already broken down from a technical standpoint after failing at a key level of resistance around $66.50. It has additionally broken a major uptrend, with a drop below $59.50, sending the commodity back to $54. This could easily reverse the very hot rotation into the energy sector.\nSource: TradingView\nIf the economy will continue to improve, and the Fed is more than happy to let it, then there's no reason yields shouldn't continue to rise. The more they raise, the more the dollar will strengthen, and the more overvalued equities will grow on a relative basis, forcing a massive repricing.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":736,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":21,"subscribersOnly":false,"subscribersOnlyAccessible":false,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/359170319"}
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