HighOnCoffee
2021-04-20
tough but possible with interest rates that low
What It Would Take for the S&P 500 to Hit 4500 by Year End<blockquote>标普500需要什么才能在年底前达到 4500</blockquote>
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Investors have bid up stocks on a giddy mix of vaccines, stimulus, and pent-up demand. Is it possible, as one analyst suggests, that another 9% leap lies ahead?</p><p><blockquote>鉴于标普500今年上涨略高于 11%，至 4185 点，比花旗集团年底预测的 3,800 点全球股票高出 8.6%，股市再次快速飙升似乎不太可能。投资者因疫苗、刺激措施和被压抑的需求的令人眼花缭乱的组合而买入股票。有没有可能像一位分析师所说的那样，未来还会有 9% 的飞跃？</blockquote></p><p> Maybe, if everything goes right. President Biden’s $4 trillion infrastructure bill would have to pass without big hikes to corporate and capital-gains taxes to finance it. The pandemic would have to be a nonissue by summer. Inflation would have to be minimal, limiting pressure on the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates low. Earnings estimates would have to rise, and valuations remain high.</p><p><blockquote>也许，如果一切顺利的话。拜登总统的 4 万亿美元基础设施法案必须在不大幅提高公司税和资本利得税的情况下获得通过。到夏天，疫情将不再是问题。通胀必须保持在最低水平，从而限制美联储保持低利率的压力。盈利预期必须上升，估值仍然很高。</blockquote></p><p> Tom Essaye, founder of Sevens Report Research, is a believer. “That scenario is entirely possible, and if it comes to fruition, then we should expect the S&P 500 to trade into the mid-4,000s, or maybe higher,” he wrote in a note predicting a 4,500 S&P by year end. At that level, the index would reflect expectations for aggregate earnings per share of $200 for S&P 500 companies, assuming valuations don’t change relative to anticipated profits. Aggregate EPS of $200 is Wall Street’s consensus for 2022.</p><p><blockquote>Sevens Report Research 的创始人汤姆·埃萨耶 (Tom Essaye) 是一名信徒。“他在一份预测标准普尔年底将达到 4500 点的报告中写道：”这种情况完全有可能发生，如果它成真，那么我们应该预计标普500指数将跌至 4000 点左右，甚至更高。在这一水平上，该指数将反映标普500公司每股总收益 200 美元的预期，假设估值相对于预期利润不变。华尔街对 2022 年的总每股收益为 200 美元。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/567703bbb342a32ba9b589693275f77e\" tg-width=\"963\" tg-height=\"637\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Of course, lots could go awry. Centrist Democrats in Congress could curb the infrastructure bill. Interest rates could keep rising even without higher inflation because 10-year Treasury yields remain below expected inflation rates. Bigger yields on Treasury debt would make bonds more appealing relative to stocks, weighing on valuations. That doesn’t mean investors shouldn’t buy stocks, but it might make sense to do it later, rather than sooner.</p><p><blockquote>当然，很多事情都可能出错。国会中的中间派民主党人可以遏制基础设施法案。即使通胀没有上升，利率也可能继续上升，因为 10 年期国债收益率仍低于预期通胀率。更高的国债收益率将使债券相对于股票更具吸引力，从而给估值带来压力。这并不意味着投资者不应该购买股票，但晚点而不是早点购买可能是有意义的。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a9a5141150f90aae35b86bd7313edc48\" tg-width=\"962\" tg-height=\"639\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>What It Would Take for the S&P 500 to Hit 4500 by Year End<blockquote>标普500需要什么才能在年底前达到 4500</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhat It Would Take for the S&P 500 to Hit 4500 by Year End<blockquote>标普500需要什么才能在年底前达到 4500</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Barrons</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-04-20 17:21</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Another rapid surge by stocks might seem unlikely, given that the S&P 500 is up just over 11% to 4185 this year, leaving it 8.6% above the 3,800 Citigroup global equity predicted for the year end. Investors have bid up stocks on a giddy mix of vaccines, stimulus, and pent-up demand. Is it possible, as one analyst suggests, that another 9% leap lies ahead?</p><p><blockquote>鉴于标普500今年上涨略高于 11%，至 4185 点，比花旗集团年底预测的 3,800 点全球股票高出 8.6%，股市再次快速飙升似乎不太可能。投资者因疫苗、刺激措施和被压抑的需求的令人眼花缭乱的组合而买入股票。有没有可能像一位分析师所说的那样，未来还会有 9% 的飞跃？</blockquote></p><p> Maybe, if everything goes right. President Biden’s $4 trillion infrastructure bill would have to pass without big hikes to corporate and capital-gains taxes to finance it. The pandemic would have to be a nonissue by summer. Inflation would have to be minimal, limiting pressure on the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates low. Earnings estimates would have to rise, and valuations remain high.</p><p><blockquote>也许，如果一切顺利的话。拜登总统的 4 万亿美元基础设施法案必须在不大幅提高公司税和资本利得税的情况下获得通过。到夏天，疫情将不再是问题。通胀必须保持在最低水平，从而限制美联储保持低利率的压力。盈利预期必须上升，估值仍然很高。</blockquote></p><p> Tom Essaye, founder of Sevens Report Research, is a believer. “That scenario is entirely possible, and if it comes to fruition, then we should expect the S&P 500 to trade into the mid-4,000s, or maybe higher,” he wrote in a note predicting a 4,500 S&P by year end. At that level, the index would reflect expectations for aggregate earnings per share of $200 for S&P 500 companies, assuming valuations don’t change relative to anticipated profits. Aggregate EPS of $200 is Wall Street’s consensus for 2022.</p><p><blockquote>Sevens Report Research 的创始人汤姆·埃萨耶 (Tom Essaye) 是一名信徒。“他在一份预测标准普尔年底将达到 4500 点的报告中写道：”这种情况完全有可能发生，如果它成真，那么我们应该预计标普500指数将跌至 4000 点左右，甚至更高。在这一水平上，该指数将反映标普500公司每股总收益 200 美元的预期，假设估值相对于预期利润不变。华尔街对 2022 年的总每股收益为 200 美元。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/567703bbb342a32ba9b589693275f77e\" tg-width=\"963\" tg-height=\"637\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Of course, lots could go awry. Centrist Democrats in Congress could curb the infrastructure bill. Interest rates could keep rising even without higher inflation because 10-year Treasury yields remain below expected inflation rates. Bigger yields on Treasury debt would make bonds more appealing relative to stocks, weighing on valuations. That doesn’t mean investors shouldn’t buy stocks, but it might make sense to do it later, rather than sooner.</p><p><blockquote>当然，很多事情都可能出错。国会中的中间派民主党人可以遏制基础设施法案。即使通胀没有上升，利率也可能继续上升，因为 10 年期国债收益率仍低于预期通胀率。更高的国债收益率将使债券相对于股票更具吸引力，从而给估值带来压力。这并不意味着投资者不应该购买股票，但晚点而不是早点购买可能是有意义的。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a9a5141150f90aae35b86bd7313edc48\" tg-width=\"962\" tg-height=\"639\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/what-it-would-take-for-the-s-p-500-to-hit-4500-by-year-end-51618619070?mod=RTA\">Barrons</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/what-it-would-take-for-the-s-p-500-to-hit-4500-by-year-end-51618619070?mod=RTA","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1187184850","content_text":"Another rapid surge by stocks might seem unlikely, given that the S&P 500 is up just over 11% to 4185 this year, leaving it 8.6% above the 3,800 Citigroup global equity predicted for the year end. Investors have bid up stocks on a giddy mix of vaccines, stimulus, and pent-up demand. Is it possible, as one analyst suggests, that another 9% leap lies ahead?\nMaybe, if everything goes right. President Biden’s $4 trillion infrastructure bill would have to pass without big hikes to corporate and capital-gains taxes to finance it. The pandemic would have to be a nonissue by summer. Inflation would have to be minimal, limiting pressure on the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates low. Earnings estimates would have to rise, and valuations remain high.\nTom Essaye, founder of Sevens Report Research, is a believer. “That scenario is entirely possible, and if it comes to fruition, then we should expect the S&P 500 to trade into the mid-4,000s, or maybe higher,” he wrote in a note predicting a 4,500 S&P by year end. At that level, the index would reflect expectations for aggregate earnings per share of $200 for S&P 500 companies, assuming valuations don’t change relative to anticipated profits. Aggregate EPS of $200 is Wall Street’s consensus for 2022.\n\nOf course, lots could go awry. Centrist Democrats in Congress could curb the infrastructure bill. Interest rates could keep rising even without higher inflation because 10-year Treasury yields remain below expected inflation rates. Bigger yields on Treasury debt would make bonds more appealing relative to stocks, weighing on valuations. That doesn’t mean investors shouldn’t buy stocks, but it might make sense to do it later, rather than sooner.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":775,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":40,"subscribersOnly":false,"subscribersOnlyAccessible":false,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/371361096"}
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