HighOnCoffee
2021-04-20
tough but possible with interest rates that low
What It Would Take for the S&P 500 to Hit 4500 by Year End<blockquote>标普500到年底达到4500点需要什么</blockquote>
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Investors have bid up stocks on a giddy mix of vaccines, stimulus, and pent-up demand. Is it possible, as one analyst suggests, that another 9% leap lies ahead?</p><p><blockquote>鉴于标准普尔500指数今年上涨略高于11%，至4185点，比花旗集团全球股票年底预测的3800点高出8.6%，股市再次快速飙升似乎不太可能。由于疫苗、刺激措施和被压抑的需求令人眼花缭乱，投资者抬高了股票价格。有没有可能像一位分析师所说的那样，未来还会有9%的飞跃？</blockquote></p><p> Maybe, if everything goes right. President Biden’s $4 trillion infrastructure bill would have to pass without big hikes to corporate and capital-gains taxes to finance it. The pandemic would have to be a nonissue by summer. Inflation would have to be minimal, limiting pressure on the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates low. Earnings estimates would have to rise, and valuations remain high.</p><p><blockquote>也许吧，如果一切顺利的话。拜登总统的4万亿美元基础设施法案必须在不大幅提高公司税和资本利得税的情况下获得通过。到夏天，疫情将不再是问题。通货膨胀必须保持在最低水平，从而限制美联储保持低利率的压力。盈利预期必须上升，而估值仍然很高。</blockquote></p><p> Tom Essaye, founder of Sevens Report Research, is a believer. “That scenario is entirely possible, and if it comes to fruition, then we should expect the S&P 500 to trade into the mid-4,000s, or maybe higher,” he wrote in a note predicting a 4,500 S&P by year end. At that level, the index would reflect expectations for aggregate earnings per share of $200 for S&P 500 companies, assuming valuations don’t change relative to anticipated profits. Aggregate EPS of $200 is Wall Street’s consensus for 2022.</p><p><blockquote>Sevens Report Research的创始人Tom Essaye就是一位信徒。他在一份报告中写道：“这种情况是完全有可能的，如果实现的话，那么我们应该预计标普500将达到4,000点左右，甚至更高。”预计年底标准普尔指数将达到4,500点。在这一水平上，该指数将反映标普500公司每股总收益为200美元的预期，假设估值相对于预期利润没有变化。华尔街对2022年每股收益总额的共识为200美元。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/567703bbb342a32ba9b589693275f77e\" tg-width=\"963\" tg-height=\"637\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Of course, lots could go awry. Centrist Democrats in Congress could curb the infrastructure bill. Interest rates could keep rising even without higher inflation because 10-year Treasury yields remain below expected inflation rates. Bigger yields on Treasury debt would make bonds more appealing relative to stocks, weighing on valuations. That doesn’t mean investors shouldn’t buy stocks, but it might make sense to do it later, rather than sooner.</p><p><blockquote>当然，很多事情都可能出错。国会中的中间派民主党人可能会限制基础设施法案。即使没有更高的通胀，利率也可能继续上升，因为10年期国债收益率仍低于预期通胀率。国债收益率上升将使债券相对于股票更具吸引力，从而打压估值。这并不意味着投资者不应该购买股票，但稍后而不是尽早购买可能是有意义的。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a9a5141150f90aae35b86bd7313edc48\" tg-width=\"962\" tg-height=\"639\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>What It Would Take for the S&P 500 to Hit 4500 by Year End<blockquote>标普500到年底达到4500点需要什么</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhat It Would Take for the S&P 500 to Hit 4500 by Year End<blockquote>标普500到年底达到4500点需要什么</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Barrons</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-04-20 17:21</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Another rapid surge by stocks might seem unlikely, given that the S&P 500 is up just over 11% to 4185 this year, leaving it 8.6% above the 3,800 Citigroup global equity predicted for the year end. Investors have bid up stocks on a giddy mix of vaccines, stimulus, and pent-up demand. Is it possible, as one analyst suggests, that another 9% leap lies ahead?</p><p><blockquote>鉴于标准普尔500指数今年上涨略高于11%，至4185点，比花旗集团全球股票年底预测的3800点高出8.6%，股市再次快速飙升似乎不太可能。由于疫苗、刺激措施和被压抑的需求令人眼花缭乱，投资者抬高了股票价格。有没有可能像一位分析师所说的那样，未来还会有9%的飞跃？</blockquote></p><p> Maybe, if everything goes right. President Biden’s $4 trillion infrastructure bill would have to pass without big hikes to corporate and capital-gains taxes to finance it. The pandemic would have to be a nonissue by summer. Inflation would have to be minimal, limiting pressure on the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates low. Earnings estimates would have to rise, and valuations remain high.</p><p><blockquote>也许吧，如果一切顺利的话。拜登总统的4万亿美元基础设施法案必须在不大幅提高公司税和资本利得税的情况下获得通过。到夏天，疫情将不再是问题。通货膨胀必须保持在最低水平，从而限制美联储保持低利率的压力。盈利预期必须上升，而估值仍然很高。</blockquote></p><p> Tom Essaye, founder of Sevens Report Research, is a believer. “That scenario is entirely possible, and if it comes to fruition, then we should expect the S&P 500 to trade into the mid-4,000s, or maybe higher,” he wrote in a note predicting a 4,500 S&P by year end. At that level, the index would reflect expectations for aggregate earnings per share of $200 for S&P 500 companies, assuming valuations don’t change relative to anticipated profits. Aggregate EPS of $200 is Wall Street’s consensus for 2022.</p><p><blockquote>Sevens Report Research的创始人Tom Essaye就是一位信徒。他在一份报告中写道：“这种情况是完全有可能的，如果实现的话，那么我们应该预计标普500将达到4,000点左右，甚至更高。”预计年底标准普尔指数将达到4,500点。在这一水平上，该指数将反映标普500公司每股总收益为200美元的预期，假设估值相对于预期利润没有变化。华尔街对2022年每股收益总额的共识为200美元。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/567703bbb342a32ba9b589693275f77e\" tg-width=\"963\" tg-height=\"637\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Of course, lots could go awry. Centrist Democrats in Congress could curb the infrastructure bill. Interest rates could keep rising even without higher inflation because 10-year Treasury yields remain below expected inflation rates. Bigger yields on Treasury debt would make bonds more appealing relative to stocks, weighing on valuations. That doesn’t mean investors shouldn’t buy stocks, but it might make sense to do it later, rather than sooner.</p><p><blockquote>当然，很多事情都可能出错。国会中的中间派民主党人可能会限制基础设施法案。即使没有更高的通胀，利率也可能继续上升，因为10年期国债收益率仍低于预期通胀率。国债收益率上升将使债券相对于股票更具吸引力，从而打压估值。这并不意味着投资者不应该购买股票，但稍后而不是尽早购买可能是有意义的。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a9a5141150f90aae35b86bd7313edc48\" tg-width=\"962\" tg-height=\"639\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/what-it-would-take-for-the-s-p-500-to-hit-4500-by-year-end-51618619070?mod=RTA\">Barrons</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/what-it-would-take-for-the-s-p-500-to-hit-4500-by-year-end-51618619070?mod=RTA","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1187184850","content_text":"Another rapid surge by stocks might seem unlikely, given that the S&P 500 is up just over 11% to 4185 this year, leaving it 8.6% above the 3,800 Citigroup global equity predicted for the year end. Investors have bid up stocks on a giddy mix of vaccines, stimulus, and pent-up demand. Is it possible, as one analyst suggests, that another 9% leap lies ahead?\nMaybe, if everything goes right. President Biden’s $4 trillion infrastructure bill would have to pass without big hikes to corporate and capital-gains taxes to finance it. The pandemic would have to be a nonissue by summer. Inflation would have to be minimal, limiting pressure on the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates low. Earnings estimates would have to rise, and valuations remain high.\nTom Essaye, founder of Sevens Report Research, is a believer. “That scenario is entirely possible, and if it comes to fruition, then we should expect the S&P 500 to trade into the mid-4,000s, or maybe higher,” he wrote in a note predicting a 4,500 S&P by year end. At that level, the index would reflect expectations for aggregate earnings per share of $200 for S&P 500 companies, assuming valuations don’t change relative to anticipated profits. Aggregate EPS of $200 is Wall Street’s consensus for 2022.\n\nOf course, lots could go awry. Centrist Democrats in Congress could curb the infrastructure bill. Interest rates could keep rising even without higher inflation because 10-year Treasury yields remain below expected inflation rates. Bigger yields on Treasury debt would make bonds more appealing relative to stocks, weighing on valuations. That doesn’t mean investors shouldn’t buy stocks, but it might make sense to do it later, rather than sooner.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":472,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":40,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/371361096"}
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