GeeChun
2021-02-17
Dangerous now?
Why the stock market’s ‘worst-case’ scenario depends on these 3 ingredients<blockquote>为什么股市的“最坏情况”取决于这三个因素</blockquote>
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With the yield on the 10-year Treasury note moving back above 1.2%, a challenge of the 1.5% area, which is the equivalent of the dividend yield on the S&P 500,could soon be in store, wrote Sean Darby, global head of strategy at Jefferies, in a Tuesday note.</p><p><blockquote>那么，收益率上升的痛苦（这使得股票估值过高的合理性变得更加困难）何时开始产生影响呢？全球主管Sean Darby写道，随着10年期国债收益率回升至1.2%以上，1.5%区域（相当于标普500的股息收益率）的挑战可能很快就会到来。杰富瑞(Jefferies)的策略在周二的一份报告中。</blockquote></p><p> That event “will probably coincide with the first test for the valuations of the higher PE stocks and the relative performance of the S&P 500 versus more loftier valued indices such as the Nasdaq-100,” he wrote, referring to the P/E, or price-to-earnings ratio, a common measure of stock market valuations.</p><p><blockquote>他写道，这一事件“可能与对市盈率较高股票估值以及标普500相对于纳斯达克100指数等估值较高指数的相对表现的首次测试同时发生”。市盈率是衡量股市估值的常用指标。</blockquote></p><p> Historically, low Treasury rates have been seen justifying lofty valuations for equities, as investors have little choice but to look to stocks for returns. While Treasury yields remain low, the move higher could threaten equities with the most stretched valuations, strategists have warned. Yields and bond prices move in opposite directions.</p><p><blockquote>从历史上看，低国债利率被认为证明了股票高估值的合理性，因为投资者别无选择，只能从股票中寻求回报。策略师警告称，尽管美国国债收益率仍然较低，但走高可能会威胁到估值最紧张的股市。收益率和债券价格走势相反。</blockquote></p><p> But Darby delves deeper, arguing that financial markets have likely undergone a “regime change” as investors adapt to the Federal Reserve’s average-inflation targeting setup, which would see the central bank allow inflation to overshoot its target and the economy to run hot before moving to tighten policy.</p><p><blockquote>但达比进行了更深入的研究，他认为，随着投资者适应美联储的平均通胀目标设置，金融市场可能已经经历了“制度变革”，这将导致央行允许通胀超过其目标，经济在采取行动之前过热。收紧政策。</blockquote></p><p> That regime change amid expectations for abundant liquidity may be illustrated by the continued rally in junk, or high-yield, corporate bonds. Those yields have fallen sharply, even trading below Treasurys on an inflation-adjusted basis for the first time in history, he noted.</p><p><blockquote>垃圾债券或高收益公司债券的持续上涨可能说明了流动性充裕预期下的这种制度变化。他指出，这些收益率大幅下跌，甚至在历史上首次低于经通胀调整后的美国国债。</blockquote></p><p> Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar, while seeing a modest bounce to begin 2021, hasn’t yet staged a convincing turnaround after its steep 2020 slide, analysts said. A weaker dollar is generally seen as favorable for stocks by helping to keep global financial conditions loose.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，分析师表示，美元虽然在2021年初出现小幅反弹，但在经历了2020年的大幅下滑后，尚未出现令人信服的好转。美元走软通常被视为有利于股市，有助于保持全球金融状况宽松。</blockquote></p><p> “In reality the worst case scenario for equity investors would be a selloff in [Treasurys] accompanied by widening credit spreads and a strong dollar,” Darby said. “To date, higher U’S’ bond yields have not been able to arrest the decline in the greenback — real interest rates are still negative.”</p><p><blockquote>达比表示：“事实上，对于股票投资者来说，最糟糕的情况是（美国国债）抛售，伴随着信用利差扩大和美元走强。”“迄今为止，较高的美国债券收益率未能阻止美元的下跌——实际利率仍然为负。”</blockquote></p><p> So what should stock-market investors expect?</p><p><blockquote>那么股市投资者应该期待什么呢？</blockquote></p><p> First off, “much higher yields,” he said, noting that all three of Jefferies’ indicators on the direction of the 10-year yield — the 10-year vs. 2-year U.S. yield curve vs. inflation expectations; the yield curve vs. U.S. M1 money supply; and the yield curve vs. the copper/gold ratio — are all pointed vertical, particularly the relationship between money supply and the yield curve (see chart below).</p><p><blockquote>首先，“收益率高得多”，他表示，并指出杰富瑞关于10年期收益率方向的所有三个指标——10年期与2年期美国收益率曲线与通胀预期；收益率曲线与美国M1货币供应量的关系；以及收益率曲线与铜/黄金比率——都是垂直的，尤其是货币供应量和收益率曲线之间的关系（见下图）。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bbd2d670eb3878e88a74b7cef6e07a1a\" tg-width=\"1259\" tg-height=\"1010\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Jefferies expects the 10-year yield to hit 2% by year-end, Darby noted.</p><p><blockquote>达比指出，杰富瑞预计10年期国债收益率将在年底前达到2%。</blockquote></p><p> Secondly, high price-to-earnings ratio stocks in the S&P 500 saw a sharp absolute return as the 30-year Treasury yield plunged, Darby said (see chart below), noting the same was true for the tech-concentrated Nasdaq-100.</p><p><blockquote>其次，达比表示，随着30年期国债收益率暴跌，标普500中的高市盈率股票出现了大幅的绝对回报（见下图），并指出以科技股为主的纳斯达克100指数也是如此。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eaa66391315c6c3febff9d67944902f7\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"1012\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> “These are the most sensitive to higher U.S. long-term rates,” he said, noting that equities are long duration assets.</p><p><blockquote>他表示：“这些股票对美国长期利率上升最敏感。”他指出，股票是长期资产。</blockquote></p><p> The 30-year yield jumped 8.6 basis points to a more-than-one-year high 2.089% Tuesday, while the 10-year yield rose 9.8 basis points to 1.298%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average eked out a gain of 64.35 points, or 0.2%, in choppy trade,building on last Friday’s record close as investors returned from a three-day holiday weekend. The S&P 500 ended 0.1% lower, while the Nasdaq Composite shed 0.3%.</p><p><blockquote>周二，30年期国债收益率上涨8.6个基点至一年多高点2.089%，而10年期国债收益率上涨9.8个基点至1.298%。随着投资者从为期三天的假期周末归来，道琼斯工业平均指数在上周五创纪录的收盘价基础上小幅上涨64.35点，即0.2%。标普500收盘下跌0.1%，纳斯达克综合指数下跌0.3%。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"market_watch","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Why the stock market’s ‘worst-case’ scenario depends on these 3 ingredients<blockquote>为什么股市的“最坏情况”取决于这三个因素</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhy the stock market’s ‘worst-case’ scenario depends on these 3 ingredients<blockquote>为什么股市的“最坏情况”取决于这三个因素</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">MarketWatch</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-02-17 15:12</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Rising yields, widening credit spreads and rising dollar would spell trouble: Jefferies</p><p><blockquote>杰富瑞：收益率上升、信用利差扩大和美元升值将带来麻烦</blockquote></p><p> Investors are fretting over Treasury yields and wondering when a rate rise could start to crimp a stock-market rally, though they weren’t yet worried enough Tuesday to prevent major benchmarks from notching another round of all-time peaks.</p><p><blockquote>投资者对美国国债收益率感到担忧，并想知道加息何时会开始抑制股市上涨，尽管他们周二还没有担心到阻止主要基准指数创下另一轮历史新高。</blockquote></p><p> So when does the pain of rising yields, which makes it harder to justify stretched equity valuations, start to make a difference? With the yield on the 10-year Treasury note moving back above 1.2%, a challenge of the 1.5% area, which is the equivalent of the dividend yield on the S&P 500,could soon be in store, wrote Sean Darby, global head of strategy at Jefferies, in a Tuesday note.</p><p><blockquote>那么，收益率上升的痛苦（这使得股票估值过高的合理性变得更加困难）何时开始产生影响呢？全球主管Sean Darby写道，随着10年期国债收益率回升至1.2%以上，1.5%区域（相当于标普500的股息收益率）的挑战可能很快就会到来。杰富瑞(Jefferies)的策略在周二的一份报告中。</blockquote></p><p> That event “will probably coincide with the first test for the valuations of the higher PE stocks and the relative performance of the S&P 500 versus more loftier valued indices such as the Nasdaq-100,” he wrote, referring to the P/E, or price-to-earnings ratio, a common measure of stock market valuations.</p><p><blockquote>他写道，这一事件“可能与对市盈率较高股票估值以及标普500相对于纳斯达克100指数等估值较高指数的相对表现的首次测试同时发生”。市盈率是衡量股市估值的常用指标。</blockquote></p><p> Historically, low Treasury rates have been seen justifying lofty valuations for equities, as investors have little choice but to look to stocks for returns. While Treasury yields remain low, the move higher could threaten equities with the most stretched valuations, strategists have warned. Yields and bond prices move in opposite directions.</p><p><blockquote>从历史上看，低国债利率被认为证明了股票高估值的合理性，因为投资者别无选择，只能从股票中寻求回报。策略师警告称，尽管美国国债收益率仍然较低，但走高可能会威胁到估值最紧张的股市。收益率和债券价格走势相反。</blockquote></p><p> But Darby delves deeper, arguing that financial markets have likely undergone a “regime change” as investors adapt to the Federal Reserve’s average-inflation targeting setup, which would see the central bank allow inflation to overshoot its target and the economy to run hot before moving to tighten policy.</p><p><blockquote>但达比进行了更深入的研究，他认为，随着投资者适应美联储的平均通胀目标设置，金融市场可能已经经历了“制度变革”，这将导致央行允许通胀超过其目标，经济在采取行动之前过热。收紧政策。</blockquote></p><p> That regime change amid expectations for abundant liquidity may be illustrated by the continued rally in junk, or high-yield, corporate bonds. Those yields have fallen sharply, even trading below Treasurys on an inflation-adjusted basis for the first time in history, he noted.</p><p><blockquote>垃圾债券或高收益公司债券的持续上涨可能说明了流动性充裕预期下的这种制度变化。他指出，这些收益率大幅下跌，甚至在历史上首次低于经通胀调整后的美国国债。</blockquote></p><p> Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar, while seeing a modest bounce to begin 2021, hasn’t yet staged a convincing turnaround after its steep 2020 slide, analysts said. A weaker dollar is generally seen as favorable for stocks by helping to keep global financial conditions loose.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，分析师表示，美元虽然在2021年初出现小幅反弹，但在经历了2020年的大幅下滑后，尚未出现令人信服的好转。美元走软通常被视为有利于股市，有助于保持全球金融状况宽松。</blockquote></p><p> “In reality the worst case scenario for equity investors would be a selloff in [Treasurys] accompanied by widening credit spreads and a strong dollar,” Darby said. “To date, higher U’S’ bond yields have not been able to arrest the decline in the greenback — real interest rates are still negative.”</p><p><blockquote>达比表示：“事实上，对于股票投资者来说，最糟糕的情况是（美国国债）抛售，伴随着信用利差扩大和美元走强。”“迄今为止，较高的美国债券收益率未能阻止美元的下跌——实际利率仍然为负。”</blockquote></p><p> So what should stock-market investors expect?</p><p><blockquote>那么股市投资者应该期待什么呢？</blockquote></p><p> First off, “much higher yields,” he said, noting that all three of Jefferies’ indicators on the direction of the 10-year yield — the 10-year vs. 2-year U.S. yield curve vs. inflation expectations; the yield curve vs. U.S. M1 money supply; and the yield curve vs. the copper/gold ratio — are all pointed vertical, particularly the relationship between money supply and the yield curve (see chart below).</p><p><blockquote>首先，“收益率高得多”，他表示，并指出杰富瑞关于10年期收益率方向的所有三个指标——10年期与2年期美国收益率曲线与通胀预期；收益率曲线与美国M1货币供应量的关系；以及收益率曲线与铜/黄金比率——都是垂直的，尤其是货币供应量和收益率曲线之间的关系（见下图）。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bbd2d670eb3878e88a74b7cef6e07a1a\" tg-width=\"1259\" tg-height=\"1010\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Jefferies expects the 10-year yield to hit 2% by year-end, Darby noted.</p><p><blockquote>达比指出，杰富瑞预计10年期国债收益率将在年底前达到2%。</blockquote></p><p> Secondly, high price-to-earnings ratio stocks in the S&P 500 saw a sharp absolute return as the 30-year Treasury yield plunged, Darby said (see chart below), noting the same was true for the tech-concentrated Nasdaq-100.</p><p><blockquote>其次，达比表示，随着30年期国债收益率暴跌，标普500中的高市盈率股票出现了大幅的绝对回报（见下图），并指出以科技股为主的纳斯达克100指数也是如此。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eaa66391315c6c3febff9d67944902f7\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"1012\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> “These are the most sensitive to higher U.S. long-term rates,” he said, noting that equities are long duration assets.</p><p><blockquote>他表示：“这些股票对美国长期利率上升最敏感。”他指出，股票是长期资产。</blockquote></p><p> The 30-year yield jumped 8.6 basis points to a more-than-one-year high 2.089% Tuesday, while the 10-year yield rose 9.8 basis points to 1.298%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average eked out a gain of 64.35 points, or 0.2%, in choppy trade,building on last Friday’s record close as investors returned from a three-day holiday weekend. The S&P 500 ended 0.1% lower, while the Nasdaq Composite shed 0.3%.</p><p><blockquote>周二，30年期国债收益率上涨8.6个基点至一年多高点2.089%，而10年期国债收益率上涨9.8个基点至1.298%。随着投资者从为期三天的假期周末归来，道琼斯工业平均指数在上周五创纪录的收盘价基础上小幅上涨64.35点，即0.2%。标普500收盘下跌0.1%，纳斯达克综合指数下跌0.3%。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/this-combo-would-be-worst-case-scenario-for-stock-market-investors-11613505230?mod=home-page\">MarketWatch</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/this-combo-would-be-worst-case-scenario-for-stock-market-investors-11613505230?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/599a65733b8245fcf7868668ef9ad712","article_id":"1137917622","content_text":"Rising yields, widening credit spreads and rising dollar would spell trouble: Jefferies\nInvestors are fretting over Treasury yields and wondering when a rate rise could start to crimp a stock-market rally, though they weren’t yet worried enough Tuesday to prevent major benchmarks from notching another round of all-time peaks.\nSo when does the pain of rising yields, which makes it harder to justify stretched equity valuations, start to make a difference? With the yield on the 10-year Treasury note moving back above 1.2%, a challenge of the 1.5% area, which is the equivalent of the dividend yield on the S&P 500,could soon be in store, wrote Sean Darby, global head of strategy at Jefferies, in a Tuesday note.\nThat event “will probably coincide with the first test for the valuations of the higher PE stocks and the relative performance of the S&P 500 versus more loftier valued indices such as the Nasdaq-100,” he wrote, referring to the P/E, or price-to-earnings ratio, a common measure of stock market valuations.\nHistorically, low Treasury rates have been seen justifying lofty valuations for equities, as investors have little choice but to look to stocks for returns. While Treasury yields remain low, the move higher could threaten equities with the most stretched valuations, strategists have warned. Yields and bond prices move in opposite directions.\nBut Darby delves deeper, arguing that financial markets have likely undergone a “regime change” as investors adapt to the Federal Reserve’s average-inflation targeting setup, which would see the central bank allow inflation to overshoot its target and the economy to run hot before moving to tighten policy.\nThat regime change amid expectations for abundant liquidity may be illustrated by the continued rally in junk, or high-yield, corporate bonds. Those yields have fallen sharply, even trading below Treasurys on an inflation-adjusted basis for the first time in history, he noted.\nMeanwhile, the U.S. dollar, while seeing a modest bounce to begin 2021, hasn’t yet staged a convincing turnaround after its steep 2020 slide, analysts said. A weaker dollar is generally seen as favorable for stocks by helping to keep global financial conditions loose.\n“In reality the worst case scenario for equity investors would be a selloff in [Treasurys] accompanied by widening credit spreads and a strong dollar,” Darby said. “To date, higher U’S’ bond yields have not been able to arrest the decline in the greenback — real interest rates are still negative.”\nSo what should stock-market investors expect?\nFirst off, “much higher yields,” he said, noting that all three of Jefferies’ indicators on the direction of the 10-year yield — the 10-year vs. 2-year U.S. yield curve vs. inflation expectations; the yield curve vs. U.S. M1 money supply; and the yield curve vs. the copper/gold ratio — are all pointed vertical, particularly the relationship between money supply and the yield curve (see chart below).\n\nJefferies expects the 10-year yield to hit 2% by year-end, Darby noted.\nSecondly, high price-to-earnings ratio stocks in the S&P 500 saw a sharp absolute return as the 30-year Treasury yield plunged, Darby said (see chart below), noting the same was true for the tech-concentrated Nasdaq-100.\n\n“These are the most sensitive to higher U.S. long-term rates,” he said, noting that equities are long duration assets.\nThe 30-year yield jumped 8.6 basis points to a more-than-one-year high 2.089% Tuesday, while the 10-year yield rose 9.8 basis points to 1.298%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average eked out a gain of 64.35 points, or 0.2%, in choppy trade,building on last Friday’s record close as investors returned from a three-day holiday weekend. The S&P 500 ended 0.1% lower, while the Nasdaq Composite shed 0.3%.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":369,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":13,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/385622718"}
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