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GeeChun

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0勋章

2021-06-18

Great

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2021-03-12

Good time to have it

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2021-03-07

Thanks

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2021-03-04

It time to make money

Wall Street drops as high-flying tech stocks retreat<blockquote>随着飙升的科技股回落，华尔街下跌</blockquote>

2021-02-26

Great information

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2021-02-25

Xiao mi already in India long time

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2021-02-25

QS look stable up

2021-02-25

Good news

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2021-02-19

$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$Buy in today?

2021-02-18

Not really understand, so Thier stock in market?

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2021-02-17

Dangerous now?

Why the stock market’s ‘worst-case’ scenario depends on these 3 ingredients<blockquote>为什么股市的“最坏情况”取决于这三个因素</blockquote>

2021-02-17

Is time to buy the stock?

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2021-02-17

Nice

Is This Oil Rally The Start Of Something Much Bigger?<blockquote>这次油价上涨是更大事件的开始吗？</blockquote>

去老虎APP查看更多动态

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time to make money","listText":"It time to make money","text":"It time to make money","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":10,"commentSize":9,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/364328908","repostId":"1107788140","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1107788140","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1614816795,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1107788140?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-03-04 08:13","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Wall Street drops as high-flying tech stocks retreat<blockquote>随着飙升的科技股回落，华尔街下跌</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1107788140","media":"Reuters","summary":"(Reuters) - The Nasdaq ended sharply lower on Wednesday after investors sold high-flying technology ","content":"<p>(Reuters) - The Nasdaq ended sharply lower on Wednesday after investors sold high-flying technology shares and pivoted to sectors viewed as more likely to benefit from an economic recovery on the back of fiscal stimulus and vaccination programs.</p><p><blockquote>（路透社）-纳斯达克周三大幅收低，此前投资者抛售股价飙升的科技股，转向被视为更有可能从财政刺激和疫苗接种计划推动的经济复苏中受益的行业。</blockquote></p><p>Microsoft Corp, Apple Inc and Amazon.com Inc dropped more than 2%, weighing more than any other stocks on the S&amp;P 500.</p><p><blockquote>微软公司、苹果公司和亚马逊公司跌幅超过2%，跌幅超过标普500任何其他股票。</blockquote></p><p>The S&amp;P 500 financial and industrial sector indexes reached intra-day record highs. Most other S&amp;P 500 sectors declined.</p><p><blockquote>标普500金融和工业板块指数创盘中历史新高。其他标普500板块多数下跌。</blockquote></p><p>“Today is the perfect encapsulation of the big theme we’ve been seeing in the past couple of months: The vaccine rollout is going well and the economy improving, and that is sending yields and rate expectations higher, which is hurting growth stocks,” said Baird investment strategist Ross Mayfield, in Louisville, Kentucky.</p><p><blockquote>“今天是我们过去几个月看到的大主题的完美概括：疫苗推出进展顺利，经济正在改善，这导致收益率和利率预期走高，这损害了成长型股票，”贝尔德投资策略师罗斯·梅菲尔德(Ross Mayfield)在肯塔基州路易斯维尔说道。</blockquote></p><p>The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.39% to end at 31,270.09 points, while the S&amp;P 500 lost 1.31% to 3,819.72.</p><p><blockquote>道琼斯工业平均指数下跌0.39%，收于31,270.09点；标普500下跌1.31%，收于3,819.72点。</blockquote></p><p>The Nasdaq Composite dropped 2.7% to 12,997.75. That left it at its lowest since early January and reduced its gain in 2021 to less than 1%.</p><p><blockquote>纳斯达克综合指数下跌2.7%，至12,997.75点。这使其处于1月初以来的最低水平，并使2021年的涨幅降至不到1%。</blockquote></p><p>The U.S. economic recovery continued at a modest pace over the first weeks of this year, with businesses optimistic about the months to come and demand for housing “robust,” but only slow improvement in the job market, the Federal Reserve reported.</p><p><blockquote>美联储报告称，今年头几周，美国经济继续温和复苏，企业对未来几个月持乐观态度，住房需求“强劲”，但就业市场改善缓慢。</blockquote></p><p>While the vaccine distribution is expected to help the economy, data showed U.S. private employers hired fewer workers than expected in February, suggesting the labor market was struggling to regain speed.</p><p><blockquote>虽然疫苗分发预计将有助于经济，但数据显示，美国私营雇主2月份雇用的工人少于预期，这表明劳动力市场正在努力恢复增长。</blockquote></p><p>Another report showed U.S. services industry activity unexpectedly slowed in February amid winter storms, while a measure of prices paid by companies for inputs surged to the highest level in nearly 12-1/2 years.</p><p><blockquote>另一份报告显示，由于冬季风暴，美国服务业活动在2月份意外放缓，而衡量企业为投入支付的价格的指标飙升至近12-1/2年来的最高水平。</blockquote></p><p>The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield ticked up to 1.47%, pressuring areas of the market with high valuations. It was still off last week’s peak of above 1.61% that roiled stock markets as investors bet on rising inflation.</p><p><blockquote>美国10年期国债收益率升至1.47%，给市场高估值领域带来压力。由于投资者押注通胀上升，该指数仍低于上周1.61%以上的峰值，该峰值扰乱了股市。</blockquote></p><p>Rising interest rates disproportionately hurt high-growth tech companies because investors value them based on earnings expected years into the future, and high interest rates hurt the value of future earnings more than the value of earnings made in the short term.</p><p><blockquote>利率上升对高增长科技公司的伤害尤其大，因为投资者根据未来几年的预期收益对它们进行估值，而高利率对未来收益价值的伤害大于短期收益价值。</blockquote></p><p>“There is a definite headwind for equity markets if yields go above the 1.5% level with most investors keeping an eye on the pace of yield growth,” said Michael Stritch, chief investment officer at BMO Wealth Management.</p><p><blockquote>BMO财富管理公司首席投资官迈克尔·斯特里奇(Michael Stritch)表示：“如果收益率超过1.5%的水平，股市肯定会面临阻力，因为大多数投资者都在关注收益率增长的步伐。”</blockquote></p><p>President Joe Biden’s proposed $1.9 trillion coronavirus relief bill would phase out $1,400 payments to high-income Americans in a compromise with moderate Democratic senators, according to lawmakers and media reports.</p><p><blockquote>据议员和媒体报道，乔·拜登总统提出的1.9万亿美元冠状病毒救助法案将逐步取消向高收入美国人支付1400美元，这是与温和派民主党参议员的妥协。</blockquote></p><p>Exxon Mobil Corp rose 0.8% after the oil major unveiled plans to grow dividends and curb spending with projections that were less bold than previous years.</p><p><blockquote>埃克森美孚公司(Exxon Mobil Corp)股价上涨0.8%，此前这家石油巨头公布了增加股息和抑制支出的计划，但预测不如往年大胆。</blockquote></p><p>Declining issues outnumbered advancing ones on the NYSE by a 1.31-to-1 ratio; on Nasdaq, a 1.95-to-1 ratio favored decliners.</p><p><blockquote>纽约证券交易所下跌股与上涨股的比例为1.31比1；在纳斯达克，1.95比1的比率有利于下跌股。</blockquote></p><p>The S&amp;P 500 posted 62 new 52-week highs and no new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 284 new highs and 68 new lows.</p><p><blockquote>标普500创下62个52周新高，无新低；纳斯达克综合指数录得284个新高和68个新低。</blockquote></p><p>Volume on U.S. exchanges was 14 billion shares, compared with the 14.9 billion average for the full session over the last 20 trading days.</p><p><blockquote>美国交易所的成交量为140亿股，而过去20个交易日的平均成交量为149亿股。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Wall Street drops as high-flying tech stocks retreat<blockquote>随着飙升的科技股回落，华尔街下跌</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWall Street drops as high-flying tech stocks retreat<blockquote>随着飙升的科技股回落，华尔街下跌</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Reuters</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-03-04 08:13</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>(Reuters) - The Nasdaq ended sharply lower on Wednesday after investors sold high-flying technology shares and pivoted to sectors viewed as more likely to benefit from an economic recovery on the back of fiscal stimulus and vaccination programs.</p><p><blockquote>（路透社）-纳斯达克周三大幅收低，此前投资者抛售股价飙升的科技股，转向被视为更有可能从财政刺激和疫苗接种计划推动的经济复苏中受益的行业。</blockquote></p><p>Microsoft Corp, Apple Inc and Amazon.com Inc dropped more than 2%, weighing more than any other stocks on the S&amp;P 500.</p><p><blockquote>微软公司、苹果公司和亚马逊公司跌幅超过2%，跌幅超过标普500任何其他股票。</blockquote></p><p>The S&amp;P 500 financial and industrial sector indexes reached intra-day record highs. Most other S&amp;P 500 sectors declined.</p><p><blockquote>标普500金融和工业板块指数创盘中历史新高。其他标普500板块多数下跌。</blockquote></p><p>“Today is the perfect encapsulation of the big theme we’ve been seeing in the past couple of months: The vaccine rollout is going well and the economy improving, and that is sending yields and rate expectations higher, which is hurting growth stocks,” said Baird investment strategist Ross Mayfield, in Louisville, Kentucky.</p><p><blockquote>“今天是我们过去几个月看到的大主题的完美概括：疫苗推出进展顺利，经济正在改善，这导致收益率和利率预期走高，这损害了成长型股票，”贝尔德投资策略师罗斯·梅菲尔德(Ross Mayfield)在肯塔基州路易斯维尔说道。</blockquote></p><p>The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.39% to end at 31,270.09 points, while the S&amp;P 500 lost 1.31% to 3,819.72.</p><p><blockquote>道琼斯工业平均指数下跌0.39%，收于31,270.09点；标普500下跌1.31%，收于3,819.72点。</blockquote></p><p>The Nasdaq Composite dropped 2.7% to 12,997.75. That left it at its lowest since early January and reduced its gain in 2021 to less than 1%.</p><p><blockquote>纳斯达克综合指数下跌2.7%，至12,997.75点。这使其处于1月初以来的最低水平，并使2021年的涨幅降至不到1%。</blockquote></p><p>The U.S. economic recovery continued at a modest pace over the first weeks of this year, with businesses optimistic about the months to come and demand for housing “robust,” but only slow improvement in the job market, the Federal Reserve reported.</p><p><blockquote>美联储报告称，今年头几周，美国经济继续温和复苏，企业对未来几个月持乐观态度，住房需求“强劲”，但就业市场改善缓慢。</blockquote></p><p>While the vaccine distribution is expected to help the economy, data showed U.S. private employers hired fewer workers than expected in February, suggesting the labor market was struggling to regain speed.</p><p><blockquote>虽然疫苗分发预计将有助于经济，但数据显示，美国私营雇主2月份雇用的工人少于预期，这表明劳动力市场正在努力恢复增长。</blockquote></p><p>Another report showed U.S. services industry activity unexpectedly slowed in February amid winter storms, while a measure of prices paid by companies for inputs surged to the highest level in nearly 12-1/2 years.</p><p><blockquote>另一份报告显示，由于冬季风暴，美国服务业活动在2月份意外放缓，而衡量企业为投入支付的价格的指标飙升至近12-1/2年来的最高水平。</blockquote></p><p>The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield ticked up to 1.47%, pressuring areas of the market with high valuations. It was still off last week’s peak of above 1.61% that roiled stock markets as investors bet on rising inflation.</p><p><blockquote>美国10年期国债收益率升至1.47%，给市场高估值领域带来压力。由于投资者押注通胀上升，该指数仍低于上周1.61%以上的峰值，该峰值扰乱了股市。</blockquote></p><p>Rising interest rates disproportionately hurt high-growth tech companies because investors value them based on earnings expected years into the future, and high interest rates hurt the value of future earnings more than the value of earnings made in the short term.</p><p><blockquote>利率上升对高增长科技公司的伤害尤其大，因为投资者根据未来几年的预期收益对它们进行估值，而高利率对未来收益价值的伤害大于短期收益价值。</blockquote></p><p>“There is a definite headwind for equity markets if yields go above the 1.5% level with most investors keeping an eye on the pace of yield growth,” said Michael Stritch, chief investment officer at BMO Wealth Management.</p><p><blockquote>BMO财富管理公司首席投资官迈克尔·斯特里奇(Michael Stritch)表示：“如果收益率超过1.5%的水平，股市肯定会面临阻力，因为大多数投资者都在关注收益率增长的步伐。”</blockquote></p><p>President Joe Biden’s proposed $1.9 trillion coronavirus relief bill would phase out $1,400 payments to high-income Americans in a compromise with moderate Democratic senators, according to lawmakers and media reports.</p><p><blockquote>据议员和媒体报道，乔·拜登总统提出的1.9万亿美元冠状病毒救助法案将逐步取消向高收入美国人支付1400美元，这是与温和派民主党参议员的妥协。</blockquote></p><p>Exxon Mobil Corp rose 0.8% after the oil major unveiled plans to grow dividends and curb spending with projections that were less bold than previous years.</p><p><blockquote>埃克森美孚公司(Exxon Mobil Corp)股价上涨0.8%，此前这家石油巨头公布了增加股息和抑制支出的计划，但预测不如往年大胆。</blockquote></p><p>Declining issues outnumbered advancing ones on the NYSE by a 1.31-to-1 ratio; on Nasdaq, a 1.95-to-1 ratio favored decliners.</p><p><blockquote>纽约证券交易所下跌股与上涨股的比例为1.31比1；在纳斯达克，1.95比1的比率有利于下跌股。</blockquote></p><p>The S&amp;P 500 posted 62 new 52-week highs and no new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 284 new highs and 68 new lows.</p><p><blockquote>标普500创下62个52周新高，无新低；纳斯达克综合指数录得284个新高和68个新低。</blockquote></p><p>Volume on U.S. exchanges was 14 billion shares, compared with the 14.9 billion average for the full session over the last 20 trading days.</p><p><blockquote>美国交易所的成交量为140亿股，而过去20个交易日的平均成交量为149亿股。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-stocks/wall-street-drops-as-high-flying-tech-stocks-retreat-idUSKBN2AV1EG\">Reuters</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果","AMZN":"亚马逊"},"source_url":"https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-stocks/wall-street-drops-as-high-flying-tech-stocks-retreat-idUSKBN2AV1EG","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1107788140","content_text":"(Reuters) - The Nasdaq ended sharply lower on Wednesday after investors sold high-flying technology shares and pivoted to sectors viewed as more likely to benefit from an economic recovery on the back of fiscal stimulus and vaccination programs.Microsoft Corp, Apple Inc and Amazon.com Inc dropped more than 2%, weighing more than any other stocks on the S&P 500.The S&P 500 financial and industrial sector indexes reached intra-day record highs. Most other S&P 500 sectors declined.“Today is the perfect encapsulation of the big theme we’ve been seeing in the past couple of months: The vaccine rollout is going well and the economy improving, and that is sending yields and rate expectations higher, which is hurting growth stocks,” said Baird investment strategist Ross Mayfield, in Louisville, Kentucky.The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.39% to end at 31,270.09 points, while the S&P 500 lost 1.31% to 3,819.72.The Nasdaq Composite dropped 2.7% to 12,997.75. That left it at its lowest since early January and reduced its gain in 2021 to less than 1%.The U.S. economic recovery continued at a modest pace over the first weeks of this year, with businesses optimistic about the months to come and demand for housing “robust,” but only slow improvement in the job market, the Federal Reserve reported.While the vaccine distribution is expected to help the economy, data showed U.S. private employers hired fewer workers than expected in February, suggesting the labor market was struggling to regain speed.Another report showed U.S. services industry activity unexpectedly slowed in February amid winter storms, while a measure of prices paid by companies for inputs surged to the highest level in nearly 12-1/2 years.The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield ticked up to 1.47%, pressuring areas of the market with high valuations. It was still off last week’s peak of above 1.61% that roiled stock markets as investors bet on rising inflation.Rising interest rates disproportionately hurt high-growth tech companies because investors value them based on earnings expected years into the future, and high interest rates hurt the value of future earnings more than the value of earnings made in the short term.“There is a definite headwind for equity markets if yields go above the 1.5% level with most investors keeping an eye on the pace of yield growth,” said Michael Stritch, chief investment officer at BMO Wealth Management.President Joe Biden’s proposed $1.9 trillion coronavirus relief bill would phase out $1,400 payments to high-income Americans in a compromise with moderate Democratic senators, according to lawmakers and media reports.Exxon Mobil Corp rose 0.8% after the oil major unveiled plans to grow dividends and curb spending with projections that were less bold than previous years.Declining issues outnumbered advancing ones on the NYSE by a 1.31-to-1 ratio; on Nasdaq, a 1.95-to-1 ratio favored decliners.The S&P 500 posted 62 new 52-week highs and no new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 284 new highs and 68 new lows.Volume on U.S. exchanges was 14 billion shares, compared with the 14.9 billion average for the full session over the last 20 trading days.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AMZN":0.9,"AAPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1172,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":368419470,"gmtCreate":1614346824490,"gmtModify":1703476690385,"author":{"id":"3576634944099341","authorId":"3576634944099341","name":"GeeChun","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2d0ca68ff291093e9ac8533ce11b83b4","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576634944099341","idStr":"3576634944099341"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great information","listText":"Great information","text":"Great information","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/368419470","repostId":"2114326591","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1035,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":361790769,"gmtCreate":1614260174051,"gmtModify":1631890071962,"author":{"id":"3576634944099341","authorId":"3576634944099341","name":"GeeChun","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2d0ca68ff291093e9ac8533ce11b83b4","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576634944099341","idStr":"3576634944099341"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Xiao mi already in India long time","listText":"Xiao mi already in India long time","text":"Xiao mi already in India long time","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/361790769","repostId":"2114317810","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1119,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":361411897,"gmtCreate":1614253866319,"gmtModify":1631890071967,"author":{"id":"3576634944099341","authorId":"3576634944099341","name":"GeeChun","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2d0ca68ff291093e9ac8533ce11b83b4","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576634944099341","idStr":"3576634944099341"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"QS look stable up","listText":"QS look stable up","text":"QS look stable up","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/828a5f7cb280bc06bba164145f07acae","width":"1080","height":"2071"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/361411897","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1465,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":361419030,"gmtCreate":1614253693020,"gmtModify":1631890071968,"author":{"id":"3576634944099341","authorId":"3576634944099341","name":"GeeChun","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2d0ca68ff291093e9ac8533ce11b83b4","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576634944099341","idStr":"3576634944099341"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good news","listText":"Good news","text":"Good news","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/361419030","repostId":"2114131201","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1470,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":387953581,"gmtCreate":1613712818443,"gmtModify":1631890071973,"author":{"id":"3576634944099341","authorId":"3576634944099341","name":"GeeChun","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2d0ca68ff291093e9ac8533ce11b83b4","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576634944099341","idStr":"3576634944099341"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PLTR\">$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$</a>Buy in today?","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PLTR\">$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$</a>Buy in today?","text":"$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$Buy in today?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/387953581","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2547,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":384917846,"gmtCreate":1613606297185,"gmtModify":1631890071976,"author":{"id":"3576634944099341","authorId":"3576634944099341","name":"GeeChun","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2d0ca68ff291093e9ac8533ce11b83b4","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576634944099341","idStr":"3576634944099341"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Not really understand, so Thier stock in market?","listText":"Not really understand, so Thier stock in market?","text":"Not really understand, so Thier stock in market?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/384917846","repostId":"1160744674","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1268,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":385622718,"gmtCreate":1613546259634,"gmtModify":1631893615350,"author":{"id":"3576634944099341","authorId":"3576634944099341","name":"GeeChun","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2d0ca68ff291093e9ac8533ce11b83b4","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576634944099341","idStr":"3576634944099341"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Dangerous now?","listText":"Dangerous now?","text":"Dangerous now?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/385622718","repostId":"1137917622","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1137917622","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1613545971,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1137917622?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-02-17 15:12","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Why the stock market’s ‘worst-case’ scenario depends on these 3 ingredients<blockquote>为什么股市的“最坏情况”取决于这三个因素</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1137917622","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"Rising yields, widening credit spreads and rising dollar would spell trouble: Jefferies\nInvestors ar","content":"<p>Rising yields, widening credit spreads and rising dollar would spell trouble: Jefferies</p><p><blockquote>杰富瑞：收益率上升、信用利差扩大和美元升值将带来麻烦</blockquote></p><p> Investors are fretting over Treasury yields and wondering when a rate rise could start to crimp a stock-market rally, though they weren’t yet worried enough Tuesday to prevent major benchmarks from notching another round of all-time peaks.</p><p><blockquote>投资者对美国国债收益率感到担忧，并想知道加息何时会开始抑制股市上涨，尽管他们周二还没有担心到阻止主要基准指数创下另一轮历史新高。</blockquote></p><p> So when does the pain of rising yields, which makes it harder to justify stretched equity valuations, start to make a difference? With the yield on the 10-year Treasury note&nbsp;moving back above 1.2%, a challenge of the 1.5% area, which is the equivalent of the dividend yield on the S&amp;P 500,could soon be in store, wrote Sean Darby, global head of strategy at Jefferies, in a Tuesday note.</p><p><blockquote>那么，收益率上升的痛苦（这使得股票估值过高的合理性变得更加困难）何时开始产生影响呢？全球主管Sean Darby写道，随着10年期国债收益率回升至1.2%以上，1.5%区域（相当于标普500的股息收益率）的挑战可能很快就会到来。杰富瑞(Jefferies)的策略在周二的一份报告中。</blockquote></p><p> That event “will probably coincide with the first test for the valuations of the higher PE stocks and the relative performance of the S&amp;P 500 versus more loftier valued indices such as the Nasdaq-100,” he wrote, referring to the P/E, or price-to-earnings ratio, a common measure of stock market valuations.</p><p><blockquote>他写道，这一事件“可能与对市盈率较高股票估值以及标普500相对于纳斯达克100指数等估值较高指数的相对表现的首次测试同时发生”。市盈率是衡量股市估值的常用指标。</blockquote></p><p> Historically, low Treasury rates have been seen justifying lofty valuations for equities, as investors have little choice but to look to stocks for returns. While Treasury yields remain low, the move higher could threaten equities with the most stretched valuations, strategists have warned. Yields and bond prices move in opposite directions.</p><p><blockquote>从历史上看，低国债利率被认为证明了股票高估值的合理性，因为投资者别无选择，只能从股票中寻求回报。策略师警告称，尽管美国国债收益率仍然较低，但走高可能会威胁到估值最紧张的股市。收益率和债券价格走势相反。</blockquote></p><p> But Darby delves deeper, arguing that financial markets have likely undergone a “regime change” as investors adapt to the Federal Reserve’s average-inflation targeting setup, which would see the central bank allow inflation to overshoot its target and the economy to run hot before moving to tighten policy.</p><p><blockquote>但达比进行了更深入的研究，他认为，随着投资者适应美联储的平均通胀目标设置，金融市场可能已经经历了“制度变革”，这将导致央行允许通胀超过其目标，经济在采取行动之前过热。收紧政策。</blockquote></p><p> That regime change amid expectations for abundant liquidity may be illustrated by the continued rally in junk, or high-yield, corporate bonds. Those yields have fallen sharply, even trading below Treasurys on an inflation-adjusted basis for the first time in history, he noted.</p><p><blockquote>垃圾债券或高收益公司债券的持续上涨可能说明了流动性充裕预期下的这种制度变化。他指出，这些收益率大幅下跌，甚至在历史上首次低于经通胀调整后的美国国债。</blockquote></p><p> Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar, while seeing a modest bounce to begin 2021, hasn’t yet staged a convincing turnaround after its steep 2020 slide, analysts said. A weaker dollar is generally seen as favorable for stocks by helping to keep global financial conditions loose.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，分析师表示，美元虽然在2021年初出现小幅反弹，但在经历了2020年的大幅下滑后，尚未出现令人信服的好转。美元走软通常被视为有利于股市，有助于保持全球金融状况宽松。</blockquote></p><p> “In reality the worst case scenario for equity investors would be a selloff in [Treasurys] accompanied by widening credit spreads and a strong dollar,” Darby said. “To date, higher U’S’ bond yields have not been able to arrest the decline in the greenback — real interest rates are still negative.”</p><p><blockquote>达比表示：“事实上，对于股票投资者来说，最糟糕的情况是（美国国债）抛售，伴随着信用利差扩大和美元走强。”“迄今为止，较高的美国债券收益率未能阻止美元的下跌——实际利率仍然为负。”</blockquote></p><p> So what should stock-market investors expect?</p><p><blockquote>那么股市投资者应该期待什么呢？</blockquote></p><p> First off, “much higher yields,” he said, noting that all three of Jefferies’ indicators on the direction of the 10-year yield — the 10-year vs. 2-year U.S. yield curve vs. inflation expectations; the yield curve vs. U.S. M1 money supply; and the yield curve vs. the copper/gold ratio — are all pointed vertical, particularly the relationship between money supply and the yield curve (see chart below).</p><p><blockquote>首先，“收益率要高得多”，他指出杰富瑞关于10年期收益率方向的所有三个指标——10年期与2年期美国收益率曲线与通胀预期；收益率曲线与美国M1货币供应量的关系；以及收益率曲线与铜/黄金比率——都是垂直的，尤其是货币供应量和收益率曲线之间的关系（见下图）。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bbd2d670eb3878e88a74b7cef6e07a1a\" tg-width=\"1259\" tg-height=\"1010\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Jefferies expects the 10-year yield to hit 2% by year-end, Darby noted.</p><p><blockquote>达比指出，杰富瑞预计10年期国债收益率将在年底前达到2%。</blockquote></p><p> Secondly, high price-to-earnings ratio stocks in the S&amp;P 500 saw a sharp absolute return as the 30-year Treasury yield&nbsp;plunged, Darby said (see chart below), noting the same was true for the tech-concentrated Nasdaq-100.</p><p><blockquote>其次，达比表示，随着30年期国债收益率暴跌，标普500中的高市盈率股票出现了大幅的绝对回报（见下图），并指出以科技股为主的纳斯达克100指数也是如此。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eaa66391315c6c3febff9d67944902f7\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"1012\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> “These are the most sensitive to higher U.S. long-term rates,” he said, noting that equities are long duration assets.</p><p><blockquote>他表示：“这些股票对美国长期利率上升最敏感。”他指出，股票是长期资产。</blockquote></p><p> The 30-year yield&nbsp;jumped 8.6 basis points to a more-than-one-year high 2.089% Tuesday, while the 10-year yield rose 9.8 basis points to 1.298%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average&nbsp;eked out a gain of 64.35 points, or 0.2%, in choppy trade,building on last Friday’s record close&nbsp;as investors returned from a three-day holiday weekend. The S&amp;P 500 ended 0.1% lower, while the Nasdaq Composite&nbsp;shed 0.3%.</p><p><blockquote>周二，30年期国债收益率上涨8.6个基点至一年多高点2.089%，而10年期国债收益率上涨9.8个基点至1.298%。随着投资者从为期三天的假期周末归来，道琼斯工业平均指数在上周五创纪录的收盘价基础上小幅上涨64.35点，即0.2%。标普500收盘下跌0.1%，纳斯达克综合指数下跌0.3%。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"market_watch","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Why the stock market’s ‘worst-case’ scenario depends on these 3 ingredients<blockquote>为什么股市的“最坏情况”取决于这三个因素</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhy the stock market’s ‘worst-case’ scenario depends on these 3 ingredients<blockquote>为什么股市的“最坏情况”取决于这三个因素</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">MarketWatch</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-02-17 15:12</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Rising yields, widening credit spreads and rising dollar would spell trouble: Jefferies</p><p><blockquote>杰富瑞：收益率上升、信用利差扩大和美元升值将带来麻烦</blockquote></p><p> Investors are fretting over Treasury yields and wondering when a rate rise could start to crimp a stock-market rally, though they weren’t yet worried enough Tuesday to prevent major benchmarks from notching another round of all-time peaks.</p><p><blockquote>投资者对美国国债收益率感到担忧，并想知道加息何时会开始抑制股市上涨，尽管他们周二还没有担心到阻止主要基准指数创下另一轮历史新高。</blockquote></p><p> So when does the pain of rising yields, which makes it harder to justify stretched equity valuations, start to make a difference? With the yield on the 10-year Treasury note&nbsp;moving back above 1.2%, a challenge of the 1.5% area, which is the equivalent of the dividend yield on the S&amp;P 500,could soon be in store, wrote Sean Darby, global head of strategy at Jefferies, in a Tuesday note.</p><p><blockquote>那么，收益率上升的痛苦（这使得股票估值过高的合理性变得更加困难）何时开始产生影响呢？全球主管Sean Darby写道，随着10年期国债收益率回升至1.2%以上，1.5%区域（相当于标普500的股息收益率）的挑战可能很快就会到来。杰富瑞(Jefferies)的策略在周二的一份报告中。</blockquote></p><p> That event “will probably coincide with the first test for the valuations of the higher PE stocks and the relative performance of the S&amp;P 500 versus more loftier valued indices such as the Nasdaq-100,” he wrote, referring to the P/E, or price-to-earnings ratio, a common measure of stock market valuations.</p><p><blockquote>他写道，这一事件“可能与对市盈率较高股票估值以及标普500相对于纳斯达克100指数等估值较高指数的相对表现的首次测试同时发生”。市盈率是衡量股市估值的常用指标。</blockquote></p><p> Historically, low Treasury rates have been seen justifying lofty valuations for equities, as investors have little choice but to look to stocks for returns. While Treasury yields remain low, the move higher could threaten equities with the most stretched valuations, strategists have warned. Yields and bond prices move in opposite directions.</p><p><blockquote>从历史上看，低国债利率被认为证明了股票高估值的合理性，因为投资者别无选择，只能从股票中寻求回报。策略师警告称，尽管美国国债收益率仍然较低，但走高可能会威胁到估值最紧张的股市。收益率和债券价格走势相反。</blockquote></p><p> But Darby delves deeper, arguing that financial markets have likely undergone a “regime change” as investors adapt to the Federal Reserve’s average-inflation targeting setup, which would see the central bank allow inflation to overshoot its target and the economy to run hot before moving to tighten policy.</p><p><blockquote>但达比进行了更深入的研究，他认为，随着投资者适应美联储的平均通胀目标设置，金融市场可能已经经历了“制度变革”，这将导致央行允许通胀超过其目标，经济在采取行动之前过热。收紧政策。</blockquote></p><p> That regime change amid expectations for abundant liquidity may be illustrated by the continued rally in junk, or high-yield, corporate bonds. Those yields have fallen sharply, even trading below Treasurys on an inflation-adjusted basis for the first time in history, he noted.</p><p><blockquote>垃圾债券或高收益公司债券的持续上涨可能说明了流动性充裕预期下的这种制度变化。他指出，这些收益率大幅下跌，甚至在历史上首次低于经通胀调整后的美国国债。</blockquote></p><p> Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar, while seeing a modest bounce to begin 2021, hasn’t yet staged a convincing turnaround after its steep 2020 slide, analysts said. A weaker dollar is generally seen as favorable for stocks by helping to keep global financial conditions loose.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，分析师表示，美元虽然在2021年初出现小幅反弹，但在经历了2020年的大幅下滑后，尚未出现令人信服的好转。美元走软通常被视为有利于股市，有助于保持全球金融状况宽松。</blockquote></p><p> “In reality the worst case scenario for equity investors would be a selloff in [Treasurys] accompanied by widening credit spreads and a strong dollar,” Darby said. “To date, higher U’S’ bond yields have not been able to arrest the decline in the greenback — real interest rates are still negative.”</p><p><blockquote>达比表示：“事实上，对于股票投资者来说，最糟糕的情况是（美国国债）抛售，伴随着信用利差扩大和美元走强。”“迄今为止，较高的美国债券收益率未能阻止美元的下跌——实际利率仍然为负。”</blockquote></p><p> So what should stock-market investors expect?</p><p><blockquote>那么股市投资者应该期待什么呢？</blockquote></p><p> First off, “much higher yields,” he said, noting that all three of Jefferies’ indicators on the direction of the 10-year yield — the 10-year vs. 2-year U.S. yield curve vs. inflation expectations; the yield curve vs. U.S. M1 money supply; and the yield curve vs. the copper/gold ratio — are all pointed vertical, particularly the relationship between money supply and the yield curve (see chart below).</p><p><blockquote>首先，“收益率要高得多”，他指出杰富瑞关于10年期收益率方向的所有三个指标——10年期与2年期美国收益率曲线与通胀预期；收益率曲线与美国M1货币供应量的关系；以及收益率曲线与铜/黄金比率——都是垂直的，尤其是货币供应量和收益率曲线之间的关系（见下图）。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bbd2d670eb3878e88a74b7cef6e07a1a\" tg-width=\"1259\" tg-height=\"1010\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Jefferies expects the 10-year yield to hit 2% by year-end, Darby noted.</p><p><blockquote>达比指出，杰富瑞预计10年期国债收益率将在年底前达到2%。</blockquote></p><p> Secondly, high price-to-earnings ratio stocks in the S&amp;P 500 saw a sharp absolute return as the 30-year Treasury yield&nbsp;plunged, Darby said (see chart below), noting the same was true for the tech-concentrated Nasdaq-100.</p><p><blockquote>其次，达比表示，随着30年期国债收益率暴跌，标普500中的高市盈率股票出现了大幅的绝对回报（见下图），并指出以科技股为主的纳斯达克100指数也是如此。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eaa66391315c6c3febff9d67944902f7\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"1012\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> “These are the most sensitive to higher U.S. long-term rates,” he said, noting that equities are long duration assets.</p><p><blockquote>他表示：“这些股票对美国长期利率上升最敏感。”他指出，股票是长期资产。</blockquote></p><p> The 30-year yield&nbsp;jumped 8.6 basis points to a more-than-one-year high 2.089% Tuesday, while the 10-year yield rose 9.8 basis points to 1.298%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average&nbsp;eked out a gain of 64.35 points, or 0.2%, in choppy trade,building on last Friday’s record close&nbsp;as investors returned from a three-day holiday weekend. The S&amp;P 500 ended 0.1% lower, while the Nasdaq Composite&nbsp;shed 0.3%.</p><p><blockquote>周二，30年期国债收益率上涨8.6个基点至一年多高点2.089%，而10年期国债收益率上涨9.8个基点至1.298%。随着投资者从为期三天的假期周末归来，道琼斯工业平均指数在上周五创纪录的收盘价基础上小幅上涨64.35点，即0.2%。标普500收盘下跌0.1%，纳斯达克综合指数下跌0.3%。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/this-combo-would-be-worst-case-scenario-for-stock-market-investors-11613505230?mod=home-page\">MarketWatch</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/this-combo-would-be-worst-case-scenario-for-stock-market-investors-11613505230?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/599a65733b8245fcf7868668ef9ad712","article_id":"1137917622","content_text":"Rising yields, widening credit spreads and rising dollar would spell trouble: Jefferies\nInvestors are fretting over Treasury yields and wondering when a rate rise could start to crimp a stock-market rally, though they weren’t yet worried enough Tuesday to prevent major benchmarks from notching another round of all-time peaks.\nSo when does the pain of rising yields, which makes it harder to justify stretched equity valuations, start to make a difference? With the yield on the 10-year Treasury note moving back above 1.2%, a challenge of the 1.5% area, which is the equivalent of the dividend yield on the S&P 500,could soon be in store, wrote Sean Darby, global head of strategy at Jefferies, in a Tuesday note.\nThat event “will probably coincide with the first test for the valuations of the higher PE stocks and the relative performance of the S&P 500 versus more loftier valued indices such as the Nasdaq-100,” he wrote, referring to the P/E, or price-to-earnings ratio, a common measure of stock market valuations.\nHistorically, low Treasury rates have been seen justifying lofty valuations for equities, as investors have little choice but to look to stocks for returns. While Treasury yields remain low, the move higher could threaten equities with the most stretched valuations, strategists have warned. Yields and bond prices move in opposite directions.\nBut Darby delves deeper, arguing that financial markets have likely undergone a “regime change” as investors adapt to the Federal Reserve’s average-inflation targeting setup, which would see the central bank allow inflation to overshoot its target and the economy to run hot before moving to tighten policy.\nThat regime change amid expectations for abundant liquidity may be illustrated by the continued rally in junk, or high-yield, corporate bonds. Those yields have fallen sharply, even trading below Treasurys on an inflation-adjusted basis for the first time in history, he noted.\nMeanwhile, the U.S. dollar, while seeing a modest bounce to begin 2021, hasn’t yet staged a convincing turnaround after its steep 2020 slide, analysts said. A weaker dollar is generally seen as favorable for stocks by helping to keep global financial conditions loose.\n“In reality the worst case scenario for equity investors would be a selloff in [Treasurys] accompanied by widening credit spreads and a strong dollar,” Darby said. “To date, higher U’S’ bond yields have not been able to arrest the decline in the greenback — real interest rates are still negative.”\nSo what should stock-market investors expect?\nFirst off, “much higher yields,” he said, noting that all three of Jefferies’ indicators on the direction of the 10-year yield — the 10-year vs. 2-year U.S. yield curve vs. inflation expectations; the yield curve vs. U.S. M1 money supply; and the yield curve vs. the copper/gold ratio — are all pointed vertical, particularly the relationship between money supply and the yield curve (see chart below).\n\nJefferies expects the 10-year yield to hit 2% by year-end, Darby noted.\nSecondly, high price-to-earnings ratio stocks in the S&P 500 saw a sharp absolute return as the 30-year Treasury yield plunged, Darby said (see chart below), noting the same was true for the tech-concentrated Nasdaq-100.\n\n“These are the most sensitive to higher U.S. long-term rates,” he said, noting that equities are long duration assets.\nThe 30-year yield jumped 8.6 basis points to a more-than-one-year high 2.089% Tuesday, while the 10-year yield rose 9.8 basis points to 1.298%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average eked out a gain of 64.35 points, or 0.2%, in choppy trade,building on last Friday’s record close as investors returned from a three-day holiday weekend. The S&P 500 ended 0.1% lower, while the Nasdaq Composite shed 0.3%.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":261,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":385621278,"gmtCreate":1613545864294,"gmtModify":1631893615364,"author":{"id":"3576634944099341","authorId":"3576634944099341","name":"GeeChun","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2d0ca68ff291093e9ac8533ce11b83b4","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576634944099341","idStr":"3576634944099341"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Is time to buy the stock?","listText":"Is time to buy the stock?","text":"Is time to buy the stock?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/385621278","repostId":"1117820148","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":243,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":385686264,"gmtCreate":1613542910558,"gmtModify":1631893615376,"author":{"id":"3576634944099341","authorId":"3576634944099341","name":"GeeChun","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2d0ca68ff291093e9ac8533ce11b83b4","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576634944099341","idStr":"3576634944099341"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/385686264","repostId":"1146053060","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1146053060","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1613540252,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1146053060?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-02-17 13:37","market":"fut","language":"en","title":"Is This Oil Rally The Start Of Something Much Bigger?<blockquote>这次油价上涨是更大事件的开始吗？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1146053060","media":"Oilprice","summary":"Commodities have rallied in recent months, outperforming equity indexes amid expectations of an econ","content":"<p>Commodities have rallied in recent months, outperforming equity indexes amid expectations of an economic recovery, easy monetary policy, and rising inflation.</p><p><blockquote>在经济复苏、宽松货币政策和通胀上升的预期下，大宗商品近几个月来上涨，表现优于股指。</blockquote></p><p> The commodity bull run across the board—spearheaded by a 50-percent jump in oil prices over the past three months—isn’t finished running, analysts and investment banks say. Some of the biggest investment banks have even started to call the start of a new commodities supercycle, which by definition, lasts years—typically about a decade.</p><p><blockquote>分析师和投资银行表示，在过去三个月油价上涨50%的带动下，大宗商品全面牛市尚未结束。一些最大的投资银行甚至开始看涨期权新的大宗商品超级周期的开始，根据定义，这一周期会持续数年——通常约为十年。</blockquote></p><p> Yet, not all investment banks and analysts are as convinced that we are in for a commodities supercycle across the board, warning that the term<i>supercycle</i>is too optimistic for a bull run that could fizzle out within a year or two and could still fall victim to negative COVID-related impacts.</p><p><blockquote>然而，并非所有投资银行和分析师都相信我们将全面进入大宗商品超级周期，并警告称，<i>超级循环</i>对于牛市来说过于乐观，牛市可能会在一两年内失败，并且仍可能成为与新冠病毒相关的负面影响的受害者。</blockquote></p><p> <b><i>Commodity Rally</i></b></p><p><blockquote><b><i>大宗商品反弹</i></b></blockquote></p><p> As early as in October 2020, a few weeks before the first announcement of an&nbsp;effective vaccine candidate, Goldman Sachs&nbsp;said&nbsp;that commodities were headed toward a bull run in 2021. Hedges against expectations of rising inflation, a weakening U.S. dollar in which most commodities are traded, and signals of “very easy” monetary policy from central banks would be the key drivers of rallying commodities, Goldman Sachs said back then.</p><p><blockquote>早在2020年10月，即首次宣布有效候选疫苗的几周前，高盛就表示大宗商品将在2021年走向牛市。高盛当时表示，对冲通胀上升的预期、大多数大宗商品交易的美元走软以及央行“非常宽松”货币政策的信号将是大宗商品上涨的关键驱动力。</blockquote></p><p> Goldman expected the S&amp;P Goldman Sachs Commodity Index (GSCI) to return 42.6 percent for energy over a 12-month period, and 17.9 percent for precious metals.</p><p><blockquote>高盛预计，标普高盛商品指数(GSCI)在12个月内能源回报率为42.6%，贵金属回报率为17.9%。</blockquote></p><p> Over the past three months, the&nbsp;S&amp;P GSCI has outperformed&nbsp;the S&amp;P 500 index, with the commodity index rising by 25 percent, compared to (just) a 9-percent increase in the S&amp;P 500.</p><p><blockquote>过去三个月，标普GSCI跑赢标普500指数，商品指数上涨25%，相比之下，标普500（仅）上涨9%。</blockquote></p><p> Over the same period, oil prices have rallied from the low $40s to above $60 a barrel, driven by vaccine rollouts, OPEC+ production cuts, and expectations of a tight market and rising oil demand later this year when economies return to growth, helped by large stimulus packages.</p><p><blockquote>同期，受疫苗推出、OPEC+减产以及对今年晚些时候经济恢复增长时市场紧张和石油需求上升的预期推动，油价从每桶40美元的低点反弹至60美元以上。大型刺激方案。</blockquote></p><p> <b><i>Some Drivers Of A New Supercycle Are Here…</i></b></p><p><blockquote><b><i>新超级周期的一些驱动因素在这里……</i></b></blockquote></p><p> According to JPMorgan, there are reasons to believe that a new commodity supercycle may have just started.</p><p><blockquote>摩根大通表示，有理由相信，一个新的大宗商品超级周期可能刚刚开始。</blockquote></p><p> “We believe that the new commodity upswing, and in particular oil up cycle, has started,” JPMorgan analysts led by Marko Kolanovic said in a note last week, as carried by&nbsp;Bloomberg.</p><p><blockquote>据彭博社报道，以马尔科·科拉诺维奇为首的摩根大通分析师上周在一份报告中表示：“我们认为，新的大宗商品上涨，特别是石油上涨周期已经开始。”</blockquote></p><p> The latest commodity supercycle ended in 2008 after a 12-year run, boosted by the super-spending and economic surge in China.</p><p><blockquote>在中国过度支出和经济飙升的推动下，最近一次大宗商品超级周期在经历了12年后于2008年结束。</blockquote></p><p> JPMorgan now sees several&nbsp;potential factors&nbsp;underpinning a new supercycle: post-pandemic global economic growth, “ultra loose” monetary policies, increased and tolerated inflation, weakening U.S. dollar, financial inflows to hedge inflation, metals for energy transition markets such as batteries and electric vehicles (EVs), and underinvestment in new oil supply.</p><p><blockquote>摩根大通现在看到了支撑新超级周期的几个潜在因素：大流行后的全球经济增长、“超宽松”货币政策、通胀上升和可容忍、美元疲软、对冲通胀的资金流入、电池和电动汽车等能源转型市场的金属（EV），以及对新石油供应的投资不足。</blockquote></p><p> The International Energy Agency (IEA)&nbsp;warned&nbsp;last year that if investment in oil were to stay at the 2020 levels over the next five years, it would reduce the previously expected level of oil supply in 2025 by nearly 9 million barrels per day (bpd).</p><p><blockquote>国际能源署（IEA）去年警告称，如果未来五年石油投资保持在2020年的水平，将使此前预期的2025年石油供应水平减少近900万桶/日（bpd）。</blockquote></p><p> This year, global upstream investments will stay low, just like they were in 2020, Wood Mackenzie&nbsp;said&nbsp;in December, expecting upstream oil and gas investment at a 15-year low of just US$300 billion, down by 30 percent from the pre-crisis level of investment in 2019.</p><p><blockquote>Wood Mackenzie在12月表示，今年，全球上游投资将保持在低位，就像2020年一样，预计上游石油和天然气投资将处于15年来的最低点，仅为3000亿美元，比2019年危机前的投资水平下降30%。</blockquote></p><p> “The world may be sleepwalking into a supply crunch, albeit beyond 2021. A recovery in oil demand back to over 100 million b/d by late 2022 increases risk of a material supply gap later this decade, triggering an upward spike in price,” said Simon Flowers, Chairman and Chief Analyst at WoodMac.</p><p><blockquote>“尽管在2021年之后，世界可能会梦游般地陷入供应紧缩。到2022年底，石油需求恢复到1亿桶/日以上，这增加了本十年晚些时候材料供应缺口的风险，引发价格飙升，”WoodMac董事长兼首席分析师西蒙·弗劳尔斯(Simon Flowers)表示。</blockquote></p><p> Then, “very easy monetary policy” and reflation trade could push oil pricesas high as $100 a barrel&nbsp;next year, Amrita Sen, chief oil analyst at Energy Aspects, told Bloomberg earlier this month.</p><p><blockquote>Energy Aspects首席石油分析师阿姆里塔·森(Amrita Sen)本月早些时候对彭博社表示，“非常宽松的货币政策”和通货再膨胀贸易可能会将明年油价推高至每桶100美元。</blockquote></p><p> In the week to February 9, hedge funds increased bullish bets on 24 major commodity futures by 5 percent to a fresh high of 2.7 million lots, representing a nominal value of $143.7 billion, Ole Hansen, Head of Commodity Strategy at Saxo Bank,said, commenting on the latest Commitments of Traders report.</p><p><blockquote>盛宝银行大宗商品策略主管Ole Hansen在评论交易员最新承诺报告时表示，截至2月9日的一周，对冲基金对24种主要商品期货的看涨押注增加了5%，达到270万手的新高，名义价值为1437亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> The combined net long position—the difference between bullish and bearish bets—in Brent and WTI has now increased to the highest in 28 months, while the net long in the grain sector in agriculture is not far from the record set in August 2012, Hansen noted.</p><p><blockquote>汉森指出，布伦特原油和WTI原油的净多头头寸（看涨和看跌押注之间的差额）现已升至28个月来的最高水平，而农业中谷物板块的净多头距离2012年8月创下的纪录不远。</blockquote></p><p> Post-pandemic growth, tightening supply, and continued demand for reflation hedges pushed the Bloomberg Commodity index to a 27-month high, Hansen said.</p><p><blockquote>汉森表示，大流行后的增长、供应收紧以及对通货再膨胀对冲的持续需求将彭博大宗商品指数推至27个月高点。</blockquote></p><p> <b><i>But Is This The Start Of The Next Commodities Supercycle?</i></b></p><p><blockquote><b><i>但这是下一个大宗商品超级周期的开始吗？</i></b></blockquote></p><p> Although crude oil and other commodities have rallied and signals have emerged to support the call for a new supercycle, some analysts are cautious and say it is a little early to proclaim the beginning of the next commodity supercycle.</p><p><blockquote>尽管原油和其他大宗商品出现反弹，并出现了支持看涨期权进入新一轮超级周期的信号，但一些分析师持谨慎态度，称现在宣布下一轮大宗商品超级周期的开始还为时过早。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> What we see in oil and commodities right now is a cyclical recovery, but a supercycle could be “two to three years away,” George Cheveley, portfolio manager at asset management company Ninety One, told&nbsp;Financial Times’ Natural Resources Editor Neil Hume.</p><p><blockquote>资产管理公司Ninety One的投资组合经理George Cheveley对英国《金融时报》自然资源编辑Neil Hume表示，我们目前在石油和大宗商品中看到的是周期性复苏，但超级周期可能“还需要两到三年的时间”。</blockquote></p><p> This bull run is unlikely to turn into a supercycle for commodities, because while investment may be depressed, “the material is abundant” for many commodities, including crude oil, Ed Morse, managing director and global head of commodities research at Citigroup, told the&nbsp;Financial Post&nbsp;in an interview last week.</p><p><blockquote>花旗集团董事总经理兼大宗商品研究全球主管埃德·莫尔斯(Ed Morse)表示，本轮牛市不太可能演变成大宗商品的超级周期，因为尽管投资可能低迷，但包括原油在内的许多大宗商品“材料丰富”。上周接受《金融邮报》采访时。</blockquote></p><p> Commodities have certainly benefited from the optimism that post-COVID growth and stimulus packages will boost demand and prices, but it may be a little premature to trumpet the next decade-long across-the-board commodities supercycle.</p><p><blockquote>大宗商品无疑受益于人们的乐观情绪，即新冠疫情后的增长和刺激计划将提振需求和价格，但现在宣扬下一个长达十年的全面大宗商品超级周期可能还为时过早。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1606109400967","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Is This Oil Rally The Start Of Something Much Bigger?<blockquote>这次油价上涨是更大事件的开始吗？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; 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overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIs This Oil Rally The Start Of Something Much Bigger?<blockquote>这次油价上涨是更大事件的开始吗？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Oilprice</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-02-17 13:37</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Commodities have rallied in recent months, outperforming equity indexes amid expectations of an economic recovery, easy monetary policy, and rising inflation.</p><p><blockquote>在经济复苏、宽松货币政策和通胀上升的预期下，大宗商品近几个月来上涨，表现优于股指。</blockquote></p><p> The commodity bull run across the board—spearheaded by a 50-percent jump in oil prices over the past three months—isn’t finished running, analysts and investment banks say. Some of the biggest investment banks have even started to call the start of a new commodities supercycle, which by definition, lasts years—typically about a decade.</p><p><blockquote>分析师和投资银行表示，在过去三个月油价上涨50%的带动下，大宗商品全面牛市尚未结束。一些最大的投资银行甚至开始看涨期权新的大宗商品超级周期的开始，根据定义，这一周期会持续数年——通常约为十年。</blockquote></p><p> Yet, not all investment banks and analysts are as convinced that we are in for a commodities supercycle across the board, warning that the term<i>supercycle</i>is too optimistic for a bull run that could fizzle out within a year or two and could still fall victim to negative COVID-related impacts.</p><p><blockquote>然而，并非所有投资银行和分析师都相信我们将全面进入大宗商品超级周期，并警告称，<i>超级循环</i>对于牛市来说过于乐观，牛市可能会在一两年内失败，并且仍可能成为与新冠病毒相关的负面影响的受害者。</blockquote></p><p> <b><i>Commodity Rally</i></b></p><p><blockquote><b><i>大宗商品反弹</i></b></blockquote></p><p> As early as in October 2020, a few weeks before the first announcement of an&nbsp;effective vaccine candidate, Goldman Sachs&nbsp;said&nbsp;that commodities were headed toward a bull run in 2021. Hedges against expectations of rising inflation, a weakening U.S. dollar in which most commodities are traded, and signals of “very easy” monetary policy from central banks would be the key drivers of rallying commodities, Goldman Sachs said back then.</p><p><blockquote>早在2020年10月，即首次宣布有效候选疫苗的几周前，高盛就表示大宗商品将在2021年走向牛市。高盛当时表示，对冲通胀上升的预期、大多数大宗商品交易的美元走软以及央行“非常宽松”货币政策的信号将是大宗商品上涨的关键驱动力。</blockquote></p><p> Goldman expected the S&amp;P Goldman Sachs Commodity Index (GSCI) to return 42.6 percent for energy over a 12-month period, and 17.9 percent for precious metals.</p><p><blockquote>高盛预计，标普高盛商品指数(GSCI)在12个月内能源回报率为42.6%，贵金属回报率为17.9%。</blockquote></p><p> Over the past three months, the&nbsp;S&amp;P GSCI has outperformed&nbsp;the S&amp;P 500 index, with the commodity index rising by 25 percent, compared to (just) a 9-percent increase in the S&amp;P 500.</p><p><blockquote>过去三个月，标普GSCI跑赢标普500指数，商品指数上涨25%，相比之下，标普500（仅）上涨9%。</blockquote></p><p> Over the same period, oil prices have rallied from the low $40s to above $60 a barrel, driven by vaccine rollouts, OPEC+ production cuts, and expectations of a tight market and rising oil demand later this year when economies return to growth, helped by large stimulus packages.</p><p><blockquote>同期，受疫苗推出、OPEC+减产以及对今年晚些时候经济恢复增长时市场紧张和石油需求上升的预期推动，油价从每桶40美元的低点反弹至60美元以上。大型刺激方案。</blockquote></p><p> <b><i>Some Drivers Of A New Supercycle Are Here…</i></b></p><p><blockquote><b><i>新超级周期的一些驱动因素在这里……</i></b></blockquote></p><p> According to JPMorgan, there are reasons to believe that a new commodity supercycle may have just started.</p><p><blockquote>摩根大通表示，有理由相信，一个新的大宗商品超级周期可能刚刚开始。</blockquote></p><p> “We believe that the new commodity upswing, and in particular oil up cycle, has started,” JPMorgan analysts led by Marko Kolanovic said in a note last week, as carried by&nbsp;Bloomberg.</p><p><blockquote>据彭博社报道，以马尔科·科拉诺维奇为首的摩根大通分析师上周在一份报告中表示：“我们认为，新的大宗商品上涨，特别是石油上涨周期已经开始。”</blockquote></p><p> The latest commodity supercycle ended in 2008 after a 12-year run, boosted by the super-spending and economic surge in China.</p><p><blockquote>在中国过度支出和经济飙升的推动下，最近一次大宗商品超级周期在经历了12年后于2008年结束。</blockquote></p><p> JPMorgan now sees several&nbsp;potential factors&nbsp;underpinning a new supercycle: post-pandemic global economic growth, “ultra loose” monetary policies, increased and tolerated inflation, weakening U.S. dollar, financial inflows to hedge inflation, metals for energy transition markets such as batteries and electric vehicles (EVs), and underinvestment in new oil supply.</p><p><blockquote>摩根大通现在看到了支撑新超级周期的几个潜在因素：大流行后的全球经济增长、“超宽松”货币政策、通胀上升和可容忍、美元疲软、对冲通胀的资金流入、电池和电动汽车等能源转型市场的金属（EV），以及对新石油供应的投资不足。</blockquote></p><p> The International Energy Agency (IEA)&nbsp;warned&nbsp;last year that if investment in oil were to stay at the 2020 levels over the next five years, it would reduce the previously expected level of oil supply in 2025 by nearly 9 million barrels per day (bpd).</p><p><blockquote>国际能源署（IEA）去年警告称，如果未来五年石油投资保持在2020年的水平，将使此前预期的2025年石油供应水平减少近900万桶/日（bpd）。</blockquote></p><p> This year, global upstream investments will stay low, just like they were in 2020, Wood Mackenzie&nbsp;said&nbsp;in December, expecting upstream oil and gas investment at a 15-year low of just US$300 billion, down by 30 percent from the pre-crisis level of investment in 2019.</p><p><blockquote>Wood Mackenzie在12月表示，今年，全球上游投资将保持在低位，就像2020年一样，预计上游石油和天然气投资将处于15年来的最低点，仅为3000亿美元，比2019年危机前的投资水平下降30%。</blockquote></p><p> “The world may be sleepwalking into a supply crunch, albeit beyond 2021. A recovery in oil demand back to over 100 million b/d by late 2022 increases risk of a material supply gap later this decade, triggering an upward spike in price,” said Simon Flowers, Chairman and Chief Analyst at WoodMac.</p><p><blockquote>“尽管在2021年之后，世界可能会梦游般地陷入供应紧缩。到2022年底，石油需求恢复到1亿桶/日以上，这增加了本十年晚些时候材料供应缺口的风险，引发价格飙升，”WoodMac董事长兼首席分析师西蒙·弗劳尔斯(Simon Flowers)表示。</blockquote></p><p> Then, “very easy monetary policy” and reflation trade could push oil pricesas high as $100 a barrel&nbsp;next year, Amrita Sen, chief oil analyst at Energy Aspects, told Bloomberg earlier this month.</p><p><blockquote>Energy Aspects首席石油分析师阿姆里塔·森(Amrita Sen)本月早些时候对彭博社表示，“非常宽松的货币政策”和通货再膨胀贸易可能会将明年油价推高至每桶100美元。</blockquote></p><p> In the week to February 9, hedge funds increased bullish bets on 24 major commodity futures by 5 percent to a fresh high of 2.7 million lots, representing a nominal value of $143.7 billion, Ole Hansen, Head of Commodity Strategy at Saxo Bank,said, commenting on the latest Commitments of Traders report.</p><p><blockquote>盛宝银行大宗商品策略主管Ole Hansen在评论交易员最新承诺报告时表示，截至2月9日的一周，对冲基金对24种主要商品期货的看涨押注增加了5%，达到270万手的新高，名义价值为1437亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> The combined net long position—the difference between bullish and bearish bets—in Brent and WTI has now increased to the highest in 28 months, while the net long in the grain sector in agriculture is not far from the record set in August 2012, Hansen noted.</p><p><blockquote>汉森指出，布伦特原油和WTI原油的净多头头寸（看涨和看跌押注之间的差额）现已升至28个月来的最高水平，而农业中谷物板块的净多头距离2012年8月创下的纪录不远。</blockquote></p><p> Post-pandemic growth, tightening supply, and continued demand for reflation hedges pushed the Bloomberg Commodity index to a 27-month high, Hansen said.</p><p><blockquote>汉森表示，大流行后的增长、供应收紧以及对通货再膨胀对冲的持续需求将彭博大宗商品指数推至27个月高点。</blockquote></p><p> <b><i>But Is This The Start Of The Next Commodities Supercycle?</i></b></p><p><blockquote><b><i>但这是下一个大宗商品超级周期的开始吗？</i></b></blockquote></p><p> Although crude oil and other commodities have rallied and signals have emerged to support the call for a new supercycle, some analysts are cautious and say it is a little early to proclaim the beginning of the next commodity supercycle.</p><p><blockquote>尽管原油和其他大宗商品出现反弹，并出现了支持看涨期权进入新一轮超级周期的信号，但一些分析师持谨慎态度，称现在宣布下一轮大宗商品超级周期的开始还为时过早。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> What we see in oil and commodities right now is a cyclical recovery, but a supercycle could be “two to three years away,” George Cheveley, portfolio manager at asset management company Ninety One, told&nbsp;Financial Times’ Natural Resources Editor Neil Hume.</p><p><blockquote>资产管理公司Ninety One的投资组合经理George Cheveley对英国《金融时报》自然资源编辑Neil Hume表示，我们目前在石油和大宗商品中看到的是周期性复苏，但超级周期可能“还需要两到三年的时间”。</blockquote></p><p> This bull run is unlikely to turn into a supercycle for commodities, because while investment may be depressed, “the material is abundant” for many commodities, including crude oil, Ed Morse, managing director and global head of commodities research at Citigroup, told the&nbsp;Financial Post&nbsp;in an interview last week.</p><p><blockquote>花旗集团董事总经理兼大宗商品研究全球主管埃德·莫尔斯(Ed Morse)表示，本轮牛市不太可能演变成大宗商品的超级周期，因为尽管投资可能低迷，但包括原油在内的许多大宗商品“材料丰富”。上周接受《金融邮报》采访时。</blockquote></p><p> Commodities have certainly benefited from the optimism that post-COVID growth and stimulus packages will boost demand and prices, but it may be a little premature to trumpet the next decade-long across-the-board commodities supercycle.</p><p><blockquote>大宗商品无疑受益于人们的乐观情绪，即新冠疫情后的增长和刺激计划将提振需求和价格，但现在宣扬下一个长达十年的全面大宗商品超级周期可能还为时过早。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://oilprice.com/Energy/Oil-Prices/Is-This-Oil-Rally-The-Start-Of-Something-Much-Bigger.html\">Oilprice</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://oilprice.com/Energy/Oil-Prices/Is-This-Oil-Rally-The-Start-Of-Something-Much-Bigger.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1146053060","content_text":"Commodities have rallied in recent months, outperforming equity indexes amid expectations of an economic recovery, easy monetary policy, and rising inflation.\nThe commodity bull run across the board—spearheaded by a 50-percent jump in oil prices over the past three months—isn’t finished running, analysts and investment banks say. Some of the biggest investment banks have even started to call the start of a new commodities supercycle, which by definition, lasts years—typically about a decade.\nYet, not all investment banks and analysts are as convinced that we are in for a commodities supercycle across the board, warning that the termsupercycleis too optimistic for a bull run that could fizzle out within a year or two and could still fall victim to negative COVID-related impacts.\nCommodity Rally\nAs early as in October 2020, a few weeks before the first announcement of an effective vaccine candidate, Goldman Sachs said that commodities were headed toward a bull run in 2021. Hedges against expectations of rising inflation, a weakening U.S. dollar in which most commodities are traded, and signals of “very easy” monetary policy from central banks would be the key drivers of rallying commodities, Goldman Sachs said back then.\nGoldman expected the S&P Goldman Sachs Commodity Index (GSCI) to return 42.6 percent for energy over a 12-month period, and 17.9 percent for precious metals.\nOver the past three months, the S&P GSCI has outperformed the S&P 500 index, with the commodity index rising by 25 percent, compared to (just) a 9-percent increase in the S&P 500.\nOver the same period, oil prices have rallied from the low $40s to above $60 a barrel, driven by vaccine rollouts, OPEC+ production cuts, and expectations of a tight market and rising oil demand later this year when economies return to growth, helped by large stimulus packages.\nSome Drivers Of A New Supercycle Are Here…\nAccording to JPMorgan, there are reasons to believe that a new commodity supercycle may have just started.\n“We believe that the new commodity upswing, and in particular oil up cycle, has started,” JPMorgan analysts led by Marko Kolanovic said in a note last week, as carried by Bloomberg.\nThe latest commodity supercycle ended in 2008 after a 12-year run, boosted by the super-spending and economic surge in China.\nJPMorgan now sees several potential factors underpinning a new supercycle: post-pandemic global economic growth, “ultra loose” monetary policies, increased and tolerated inflation, weakening U.S. dollar, financial inflows to hedge inflation, metals for energy transition markets such as batteries and electric vehicles (EVs), and underinvestment in new oil supply.\nThe International Energy Agency (IEA) warned last year that if investment in oil were to stay at the 2020 levels over the next five years, it would reduce the previously expected level of oil supply in 2025 by nearly 9 million barrels per day (bpd).\nThis year, global upstream investments will stay low, just like they were in 2020, Wood Mackenzie said in December, expecting upstream oil and gas investment at a 15-year low of just US$300 billion, down by 30 percent from the pre-crisis level of investment in 2019.\n“The world may be sleepwalking into a supply crunch, albeit beyond 2021. A recovery in oil demand back to over 100 million b/d by late 2022 increases risk of a material supply gap later this decade, triggering an upward spike in price,” said Simon Flowers, Chairman and Chief Analyst at WoodMac.\nThen, “very easy monetary policy” and reflation trade could push oil pricesas high as $100 a barrel next year, Amrita Sen, chief oil analyst at Energy Aspects, told Bloomberg earlier this month.\nIn the week to February 9, hedge funds increased bullish bets on 24 major commodity futures by 5 percent to a fresh high of 2.7 million lots, representing a nominal value of $143.7 billion, Ole Hansen, Head of Commodity Strategy at Saxo Bank,said, commenting on the latest Commitments of Traders report.\nThe combined net long position—the difference between bullish and bearish bets—in Brent and WTI has now increased to the highest in 28 months, while the net long in the grain sector in agriculture is not far from the record set in August 2012, Hansen noted.\nPost-pandemic growth, tightening supply, and continued demand for reflation hedges pushed the Bloomberg Commodity index to a 27-month high, Hansen said.\nBut Is This The Start Of The Next Commodities Supercycle?\nAlthough crude oil and other commodities have rallied and signals have emerged to support the call for a new supercycle, some analysts are cautious and say it is a little early to proclaim the beginning of the next commodity supercycle.\nWhat we see in oil and commodities right now is a cyclical recovery, but a supercycle could be “two to three years away,” George Cheveley, portfolio manager at asset management company Ninety One, told Financial Times’ Natural Resources Editor Neil Hume.\nThis bull run is unlikely to turn into a supercycle for commodities, because while investment may be depressed, “the material is abundant” for many commodities, including crude oil, Ed Morse, managing director and global head of commodities research at Citigroup, told the Financial Post in an interview last week.\nCommodities have certainly benefited from the optimism that post-COVID growth and stimulus packages will boost demand and prices, but it may be a little premature to trumpet the next decade-long across-the-board commodities supercycle.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"CLmain":0.9,"BZmain":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":446,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":364328908,"gmtCreate":1614817258704,"gmtModify":1703481470658,"author":{"id":"3576634944099341","authorId":"3576634944099341","name":"GeeChun","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2d0ca68ff291093e9ac8533ce11b83b4","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576634944099341","idStr":"3576634944099341"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"It time to make money","listText":"It time to make money","text":"It time to make money","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":10,"commentSize":9,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/364328908","repostId":"1107788140","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1107788140","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1614816795,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1107788140?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-03-04 08:13","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Wall Street drops as high-flying tech stocks retreat<blockquote>随着飙升的科技股回落，华尔街下跌</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1107788140","media":"Reuters","summary":"(Reuters) - The Nasdaq ended sharply lower on Wednesday after investors sold high-flying technology ","content":"<p>(Reuters) - The Nasdaq ended sharply lower on Wednesday after investors sold high-flying technology shares and pivoted to sectors viewed as more likely to benefit from an economic recovery on the back of fiscal stimulus and vaccination programs.</p><p><blockquote>（路透社）-纳斯达克周三大幅收低，此前投资者抛售股价飙升的科技股，转向被视为更有可能从财政刺激和疫苗接种计划推动的经济复苏中受益的行业。</blockquote></p><p>Microsoft Corp, Apple Inc and Amazon.com Inc dropped more than 2%, weighing more than any other stocks on the S&amp;P 500.</p><p><blockquote>微软公司、苹果公司和亚马逊公司跌幅超过2%，跌幅超过标普500任何其他股票。</blockquote></p><p>The S&amp;P 500 financial and industrial sector indexes reached intra-day record highs. Most other S&amp;P 500 sectors declined.</p><p><blockquote>标普500金融和工业板块指数创盘中历史新高。其他标普500板块多数下跌。</blockquote></p><p>“Today is the perfect encapsulation of the big theme we’ve been seeing in the past couple of months: The vaccine rollout is going well and the economy improving, and that is sending yields and rate expectations higher, which is hurting growth stocks,” said Baird investment strategist Ross Mayfield, in Louisville, Kentucky.</p><p><blockquote>“今天是我们过去几个月看到的大主题的完美概括：疫苗推出进展顺利，经济正在改善，这导致收益率和利率预期走高，这损害了成长型股票，”贝尔德投资策略师罗斯·梅菲尔德(Ross Mayfield)在肯塔基州路易斯维尔说道。</blockquote></p><p>The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.39% to end at 31,270.09 points, while the S&amp;P 500 lost 1.31% to 3,819.72.</p><p><blockquote>道琼斯工业平均指数下跌0.39%，收于31,270.09点；标普500下跌1.31%，收于3,819.72点。</blockquote></p><p>The Nasdaq Composite dropped 2.7% to 12,997.75. That left it at its lowest since early January and reduced its gain in 2021 to less than 1%.</p><p><blockquote>纳斯达克综合指数下跌2.7%，至12,997.75点。这使其处于1月初以来的最低水平，并使2021年的涨幅降至不到1%。</blockquote></p><p>The U.S. economic recovery continued at a modest pace over the first weeks of this year, with businesses optimistic about the months to come and demand for housing “robust,” but only slow improvement in the job market, the Federal Reserve reported.</p><p><blockquote>美联储报告称，今年头几周，美国经济继续温和复苏，企业对未来几个月持乐观态度，住房需求“强劲”，但就业市场改善缓慢。</blockquote></p><p>While the vaccine distribution is expected to help the economy, data showed U.S. private employers hired fewer workers than expected in February, suggesting the labor market was struggling to regain speed.</p><p><blockquote>虽然疫苗分发预计将有助于经济，但数据显示，美国私营雇主2月份雇用的工人少于预期，这表明劳动力市场正在努力恢复增长。</blockquote></p><p>Another report showed U.S. services industry activity unexpectedly slowed in February amid winter storms, while a measure of prices paid by companies for inputs surged to the highest level in nearly 12-1/2 years.</p><p><blockquote>另一份报告显示，由于冬季风暴，美国服务业活动在2月份意外放缓，而衡量企业为投入支付的价格的指标飙升至近12-1/2年来的最高水平。</blockquote></p><p>The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield ticked up to 1.47%, pressuring areas of the market with high valuations. It was still off last week’s peak of above 1.61% that roiled stock markets as investors bet on rising inflation.</p><p><blockquote>美国10年期国债收益率升至1.47%，给市场高估值领域带来压力。由于投资者押注通胀上升，该指数仍低于上周1.61%以上的峰值，该峰值扰乱了股市。</blockquote></p><p>Rising interest rates disproportionately hurt high-growth tech companies because investors value them based on earnings expected years into the future, and high interest rates hurt the value of future earnings more than the value of earnings made in the short term.</p><p><blockquote>利率上升对高增长科技公司的伤害尤其大，因为投资者根据未来几年的预期收益对它们进行估值，而高利率对未来收益价值的伤害大于短期收益价值。</blockquote></p><p>“There is a definite headwind for equity markets if yields go above the 1.5% level with most investors keeping an eye on the pace of yield growth,” said Michael Stritch, chief investment officer at BMO Wealth Management.</p><p><blockquote>BMO财富管理公司首席投资官迈克尔·斯特里奇(Michael Stritch)表示：“如果收益率超过1.5%的水平，股市肯定会面临阻力，因为大多数投资者都在关注收益率增长的步伐。”</blockquote></p><p>President Joe Biden’s proposed $1.9 trillion coronavirus relief bill would phase out $1,400 payments to high-income Americans in a compromise with moderate Democratic senators, according to lawmakers and media reports.</p><p><blockquote>据议员和媒体报道，乔·拜登总统提出的1.9万亿美元冠状病毒救助法案将逐步取消向高收入美国人支付1400美元，这是与温和派民主党参议员的妥协。</blockquote></p><p>Exxon Mobil Corp rose 0.8% after the oil major unveiled plans to grow dividends and curb spending with projections that were less bold than previous years.</p><p><blockquote>埃克森美孚公司(Exxon Mobil Corp)股价上涨0.8%，此前这家石油巨头公布了增加股息和抑制支出的计划，但预测不如往年大胆。</blockquote></p><p>Declining issues outnumbered advancing ones on the NYSE by a 1.31-to-1 ratio; on Nasdaq, a 1.95-to-1 ratio favored decliners.</p><p><blockquote>纽约证券交易所下跌股与上涨股的比例为1.31比1；在纳斯达克，1.95比1的比率有利于下跌股。</blockquote></p><p>The S&amp;P 500 posted 62 new 52-week highs and no new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 284 new highs and 68 new lows.</p><p><blockquote>标普500创下62个52周新高，无新低；纳斯达克综合指数录得284个新高和68个新低。</blockquote></p><p>Volume on U.S. exchanges was 14 billion shares, compared with the 14.9 billion average for the full session over the last 20 trading days.</p><p><blockquote>美国交易所的成交量为140亿股，而过去20个交易日的平均成交量为149亿股。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Wall Street drops as high-flying tech stocks retreat<blockquote>随着飙升的科技股回落，华尔街下跌</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWall Street drops as high-flying tech stocks retreat<blockquote>随着飙升的科技股回落，华尔街下跌</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Reuters</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-03-04 08:13</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>(Reuters) - The Nasdaq ended sharply lower on Wednesday after investors sold high-flying technology shares and pivoted to sectors viewed as more likely to benefit from an economic recovery on the back of fiscal stimulus and vaccination programs.</p><p><blockquote>（路透社）-纳斯达克周三大幅收低，此前投资者抛售股价飙升的科技股，转向被视为更有可能从财政刺激和疫苗接种计划推动的经济复苏中受益的行业。</blockquote></p><p>Microsoft Corp, Apple Inc and Amazon.com Inc dropped more than 2%, weighing more than any other stocks on the S&amp;P 500.</p><p><blockquote>微软公司、苹果公司和亚马逊公司跌幅超过2%，跌幅超过标普500任何其他股票。</blockquote></p><p>The S&amp;P 500 financial and industrial sector indexes reached intra-day record highs. Most other S&amp;P 500 sectors declined.</p><p><blockquote>标普500金融和工业板块指数创盘中历史新高。其他标普500板块多数下跌。</blockquote></p><p>“Today is the perfect encapsulation of the big theme we’ve been seeing in the past couple of months: The vaccine rollout is going well and the economy improving, and that is sending yields and rate expectations higher, which is hurting growth stocks,” said Baird investment strategist Ross Mayfield, in Louisville, Kentucky.</p><p><blockquote>“今天是我们过去几个月看到的大主题的完美概括：疫苗推出进展顺利，经济正在改善，这导致收益率和利率预期走高，这损害了成长型股票，”贝尔德投资策略师罗斯·梅菲尔德(Ross Mayfield)在肯塔基州路易斯维尔说道。</blockquote></p><p>The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.39% to end at 31,270.09 points, while the S&amp;P 500 lost 1.31% to 3,819.72.</p><p><blockquote>道琼斯工业平均指数下跌0.39%，收于31,270.09点；标普500下跌1.31%，收于3,819.72点。</blockquote></p><p>The Nasdaq Composite dropped 2.7% to 12,997.75. That left it at its lowest since early January and reduced its gain in 2021 to less than 1%.</p><p><blockquote>纳斯达克综合指数下跌2.7%，至12,997.75点。这使其处于1月初以来的最低水平，并使2021年的涨幅降至不到1%。</blockquote></p><p>The U.S. economic recovery continued at a modest pace over the first weeks of this year, with businesses optimistic about the months to come and demand for housing “robust,” but only slow improvement in the job market, the Federal Reserve reported.</p><p><blockquote>美联储报告称，今年头几周，美国经济继续温和复苏，企业对未来几个月持乐观态度，住房需求“强劲”，但就业市场改善缓慢。</blockquote></p><p>While the vaccine distribution is expected to help the economy, data showed U.S. private employers hired fewer workers than expected in February, suggesting the labor market was struggling to regain speed.</p><p><blockquote>虽然疫苗分发预计将有助于经济，但数据显示，美国私营雇主2月份雇用的工人少于预期，这表明劳动力市场正在努力恢复增长。</blockquote></p><p>Another report showed U.S. services industry activity unexpectedly slowed in February amid winter storms, while a measure of prices paid by companies for inputs surged to the highest level in nearly 12-1/2 years.</p><p><blockquote>另一份报告显示，由于冬季风暴，美国服务业活动在2月份意外放缓，而衡量企业为投入支付的价格的指标飙升至近12-1/2年来的最高水平。</blockquote></p><p>The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield ticked up to 1.47%, pressuring areas of the market with high valuations. It was still off last week’s peak of above 1.61% that roiled stock markets as investors bet on rising inflation.</p><p><blockquote>美国10年期国债收益率升至1.47%，给市场高估值领域带来压力。由于投资者押注通胀上升，该指数仍低于上周1.61%以上的峰值，该峰值扰乱了股市。</blockquote></p><p>Rising interest rates disproportionately hurt high-growth tech companies because investors value them based on earnings expected years into the future, and high interest rates hurt the value of future earnings more than the value of earnings made in the short term.</p><p><blockquote>利率上升对高增长科技公司的伤害尤其大，因为投资者根据未来几年的预期收益对它们进行估值，而高利率对未来收益价值的伤害大于短期收益价值。</blockquote></p><p>“There is a definite headwind for equity markets if yields go above the 1.5% level with most investors keeping an eye on the pace of yield growth,” said Michael Stritch, chief investment officer at BMO Wealth Management.</p><p><blockquote>BMO财富管理公司首席投资官迈克尔·斯特里奇(Michael Stritch)表示：“如果收益率超过1.5%的水平，股市肯定会面临阻力，因为大多数投资者都在关注收益率增长的步伐。”</blockquote></p><p>President Joe Biden’s proposed $1.9 trillion coronavirus relief bill would phase out $1,400 payments to high-income Americans in a compromise with moderate Democratic senators, according to lawmakers and media reports.</p><p><blockquote>据议员和媒体报道，乔·拜登总统提出的1.9万亿美元冠状病毒救助法案将逐步取消向高收入美国人支付1400美元，这是与温和派民主党参议员的妥协。</blockquote></p><p>Exxon Mobil Corp rose 0.8% after the oil major unveiled plans to grow dividends and curb spending with projections that were less bold than previous years.</p><p><blockquote>埃克森美孚公司(Exxon Mobil Corp)股价上涨0.8%，此前这家石油巨头公布了增加股息和抑制支出的计划，但预测不如往年大胆。</blockquote></p><p>Declining issues outnumbered advancing ones on the NYSE by a 1.31-to-1 ratio; on Nasdaq, a 1.95-to-1 ratio favored decliners.</p><p><blockquote>纽约证券交易所下跌股与上涨股的比例为1.31比1；在纳斯达克，1.95比1的比率有利于下跌股。</blockquote></p><p>The S&amp;P 500 posted 62 new 52-week highs and no new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 284 new highs and 68 new lows.</p><p><blockquote>标普500创下62个52周新高，无新低；纳斯达克综合指数录得284个新高和68个新低。</blockquote></p><p>Volume on U.S. exchanges was 14 billion shares, compared with the 14.9 billion average for the full session over the last 20 trading days.</p><p><blockquote>美国交易所的成交量为140亿股，而过去20个交易日的平均成交量为149亿股。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-stocks/wall-street-drops-as-high-flying-tech-stocks-retreat-idUSKBN2AV1EG\">Reuters</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果","AMZN":"亚马逊"},"source_url":"https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-stocks/wall-street-drops-as-high-flying-tech-stocks-retreat-idUSKBN2AV1EG","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1107788140","content_text":"(Reuters) - The Nasdaq ended sharply lower on Wednesday after investors sold high-flying technology shares and pivoted to sectors viewed as more likely to benefit from an economic recovery on the back of fiscal stimulus and vaccination programs.Microsoft Corp, Apple Inc and Amazon.com Inc dropped more than 2%, weighing more than any other stocks on the S&P 500.The S&P 500 financial and industrial sector indexes reached intra-day record highs. Most other S&P 500 sectors declined.“Today is the perfect encapsulation of the big theme we’ve been seeing in the past couple of months: The vaccine rollout is going well and the economy improving, and that is sending yields and rate expectations higher, which is hurting growth stocks,” said Baird investment strategist Ross Mayfield, in Louisville, Kentucky.The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.39% to end at 31,270.09 points, while the S&P 500 lost 1.31% to 3,819.72.The Nasdaq Composite dropped 2.7% to 12,997.75. That left it at its lowest since early January and reduced its gain in 2021 to less than 1%.The U.S. economic recovery continued at a modest pace over the first weeks of this year, with businesses optimistic about the months to come and demand for housing “robust,” but only slow improvement in the job market, the Federal Reserve reported.While the vaccine distribution is expected to help the economy, data showed U.S. private employers hired fewer workers than expected in February, suggesting the labor market was struggling to regain speed.Another report showed U.S. services industry activity unexpectedly slowed in February amid winter storms, while a measure of prices paid by companies for inputs surged to the highest level in nearly 12-1/2 years.The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield ticked up to 1.47%, pressuring areas of the market with high valuations. It was still off last week’s peak of above 1.61% that roiled stock markets as investors bet on rising inflation.Rising interest rates disproportionately hurt high-growth tech companies because investors value them based on earnings expected years into the future, and high interest rates hurt the value of future earnings more than the value of earnings made in the short term.“There is a definite headwind for equity markets if yields go above the 1.5% level with most investors keeping an eye on the pace of yield growth,” said Michael Stritch, chief investment officer at BMO Wealth Management.President Joe Biden’s proposed $1.9 trillion coronavirus relief bill would phase out $1,400 payments to high-income Americans in a compromise with moderate Democratic senators, according to lawmakers and media reports.Exxon Mobil Corp rose 0.8% after the oil major unveiled plans to grow dividends and curb spending with projections that were less bold than previous years.Declining issues outnumbered advancing ones on the NYSE by a 1.31-to-1 ratio; on Nasdaq, a 1.95-to-1 ratio favored decliners.The S&P 500 posted 62 new 52-week highs and no new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 284 new highs and 68 new lows.Volume on U.S. exchanges was 14 billion shares, compared with the 14.9 billion average for the full session over the last 20 trading days.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AMZN":0.9,"AAPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1172,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":328151820,"gmtCreate":1615508352960,"gmtModify":1703490112731,"author":{"id":"3576634944099341","authorId":"3576634944099341","name":"GeeChun","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2d0ca68ff291093e9ac8533ce11b83b4","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576634944099341","idStr":"3576634944099341"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good time to have it","listText":"Good time to have it","text":"Good time to have 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information","listText":"Great information","text":"Great information","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/368419470","repostId":"2114326591","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1035,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":361790769,"gmtCreate":1614260174051,"gmtModify":1631890071962,"author":{"id":"3576634944099341","authorId":"3576634944099341","name":"GeeChun","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2d0ca68ff291093e9ac8533ce11b83b4","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576634944099341","idStr":"3576634944099341"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Xiao mi already in India long time","listText":"Xiao mi already in India long time","text":"Xiao mi already in India long time","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/361790769","repostId":"2114317810","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1119,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":385686264,"gmtCreate":1613542910558,"gmtModify":1631893615376,"author":{"id":"3576634944099341","authorId":"3576634944099341","name":"GeeChun","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2d0ca68ff291093e9ac8533ce11b83b4","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576634944099341","idStr":"3576634944099341"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/385686264","repostId":"1146053060","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1146053060","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1613540252,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1146053060?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-02-17 13:37","market":"fut","language":"en","title":"Is This Oil Rally The Start Of Something Much Bigger?<blockquote>这次油价上涨是更大事件的开始吗？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1146053060","media":"Oilprice","summary":"Commodities have rallied in recent months, outperforming equity indexes amid expectations of an econ","content":"<p>Commodities have rallied in recent months, outperforming equity indexes amid expectations of an economic recovery, easy monetary policy, and rising inflation.</p><p><blockquote>在经济复苏、宽松货币政策和通胀上升的预期下，大宗商品近几个月来上涨，表现优于股指。</blockquote></p><p> The commodity bull run across the board—spearheaded by a 50-percent jump in oil prices over the past three months—isn’t finished running, analysts and investment banks say. Some of the biggest investment banks have even started to call the start of a new commodities supercycle, which by definition, lasts years—typically about a decade.</p><p><blockquote>分析师和投资银行表示，在过去三个月油价上涨50%的带动下，大宗商品全面牛市尚未结束。一些最大的投资银行甚至开始看涨期权新的大宗商品超级周期的开始，根据定义，这一周期会持续数年——通常约为十年。</blockquote></p><p> Yet, not all investment banks and analysts are as convinced that we are in for a commodities supercycle across the board, warning that the term<i>supercycle</i>is too optimistic for a bull run that could fizzle out within a year or two and could still fall victim to negative COVID-related impacts.</p><p><blockquote>然而，并非所有投资银行和分析师都相信我们将全面进入大宗商品超级周期，并警告称，<i>超级循环</i>对于牛市来说过于乐观，牛市可能会在一两年内失败，并且仍可能成为与新冠病毒相关的负面影响的受害者。</blockquote></p><p> <b><i>Commodity Rally</i></b></p><p><blockquote><b><i>大宗商品反弹</i></b></blockquote></p><p> As early as in October 2020, a few weeks before the first announcement of an&nbsp;effective vaccine candidate, Goldman Sachs&nbsp;said&nbsp;that commodities were headed toward a bull run in 2021. Hedges against expectations of rising inflation, a weakening U.S. dollar in which most commodities are traded, and signals of “very easy” monetary policy from central banks would be the key drivers of rallying commodities, Goldman Sachs said back then.</p><p><blockquote>早在2020年10月，即首次宣布有效候选疫苗的几周前，高盛就表示大宗商品将在2021年走向牛市。高盛当时表示，对冲通胀上升的预期、大多数大宗商品交易的美元走软以及央行“非常宽松”货币政策的信号将是大宗商品上涨的关键驱动力。</blockquote></p><p> Goldman expected the S&amp;P Goldman Sachs Commodity Index (GSCI) to return 42.6 percent for energy over a 12-month period, and 17.9 percent for precious metals.</p><p><blockquote>高盛预计，标普高盛商品指数(GSCI)在12个月内能源回报率为42.6%，贵金属回报率为17.9%。</blockquote></p><p> Over the past three months, the&nbsp;S&amp;P GSCI has outperformed&nbsp;the S&amp;P 500 index, with the commodity index rising by 25 percent, compared to (just) a 9-percent increase in the S&amp;P 500.</p><p><blockquote>过去三个月，标普GSCI跑赢标普500指数，商品指数上涨25%，相比之下，标普500（仅）上涨9%。</blockquote></p><p> Over the same period, oil prices have rallied from the low $40s to above $60 a barrel, driven by vaccine rollouts, OPEC+ production cuts, and expectations of a tight market and rising oil demand later this year when economies return to growth, helped by large stimulus packages.</p><p><blockquote>同期，受疫苗推出、OPEC+减产以及对今年晚些时候经济恢复增长时市场紧张和石油需求上升的预期推动，油价从每桶40美元的低点反弹至60美元以上。大型刺激方案。</blockquote></p><p> <b><i>Some Drivers Of A New Supercycle Are Here…</i></b></p><p><blockquote><b><i>新超级周期的一些驱动因素在这里……</i></b></blockquote></p><p> According to JPMorgan, there are reasons to believe that a new commodity supercycle may have just started.</p><p><blockquote>摩根大通表示，有理由相信，一个新的大宗商品超级周期可能刚刚开始。</blockquote></p><p> “We believe that the new commodity upswing, and in particular oil up cycle, has started,” JPMorgan analysts led by Marko Kolanovic said in a note last week, as carried by&nbsp;Bloomberg.</p><p><blockquote>据彭博社报道，以马尔科·科拉诺维奇为首的摩根大通分析师上周在一份报告中表示：“我们认为，新的大宗商品上涨，特别是石油上涨周期已经开始。”</blockquote></p><p> The latest commodity supercycle ended in 2008 after a 12-year run, boosted by the super-spending and economic surge in China.</p><p><blockquote>在中国过度支出和经济飙升的推动下，最近一次大宗商品超级周期在经历了12年后于2008年结束。</blockquote></p><p> JPMorgan now sees several&nbsp;potential factors&nbsp;underpinning a new supercycle: post-pandemic global economic growth, “ultra loose” monetary policies, increased and tolerated inflation, weakening U.S. dollar, financial inflows to hedge inflation, metals for energy transition markets such as batteries and electric vehicles (EVs), and underinvestment in new oil supply.</p><p><blockquote>摩根大通现在看到了支撑新超级周期的几个潜在因素：大流行后的全球经济增长、“超宽松”货币政策、通胀上升和可容忍、美元疲软、对冲通胀的资金流入、电池和电动汽车等能源转型市场的金属（EV），以及对新石油供应的投资不足。</blockquote></p><p> The International Energy Agency (IEA)&nbsp;warned&nbsp;last year that if investment in oil were to stay at the 2020 levels over the next five years, it would reduce the previously expected level of oil supply in 2025 by nearly 9 million barrels per day (bpd).</p><p><blockquote>国际能源署（IEA）去年警告称，如果未来五年石油投资保持在2020年的水平，将使此前预期的2025年石油供应水平减少近900万桶/日（bpd）。</blockquote></p><p> This year, global upstream investments will stay low, just like they were in 2020, Wood Mackenzie&nbsp;said&nbsp;in December, expecting upstream oil and gas investment at a 15-year low of just US$300 billion, down by 30 percent from the pre-crisis level of investment in 2019.</p><p><blockquote>Wood Mackenzie在12月表示，今年，全球上游投资将保持在低位，就像2020年一样，预计上游石油和天然气投资将处于15年来的最低点，仅为3000亿美元，比2019年危机前的投资水平下降30%。</blockquote></p><p> “The world may be sleepwalking into a supply crunch, albeit beyond 2021. A recovery in oil demand back to over 100 million b/d by late 2022 increases risk of a material supply gap later this decade, triggering an upward spike in price,” said Simon Flowers, Chairman and Chief Analyst at WoodMac.</p><p><blockquote>“尽管在2021年之后，世界可能会梦游般地陷入供应紧缩。到2022年底，石油需求恢复到1亿桶/日以上，这增加了本十年晚些时候材料供应缺口的风险，引发价格飙升，”WoodMac董事长兼首席分析师西蒙·弗劳尔斯(Simon Flowers)表示。</blockquote></p><p> Then, “very easy monetary policy” and reflation trade could push oil pricesas high as $100 a barrel&nbsp;next year, Amrita Sen, chief oil analyst at Energy Aspects, told Bloomberg earlier this month.</p><p><blockquote>Energy Aspects首席石油分析师阿姆里塔·森(Amrita Sen)本月早些时候对彭博社表示，“非常宽松的货币政策”和通货再膨胀贸易可能会将明年油价推高至每桶100美元。</blockquote></p><p> In the week to February 9, hedge funds increased bullish bets on 24 major commodity futures by 5 percent to a fresh high of 2.7 million lots, representing a nominal value of $143.7 billion, Ole Hansen, Head of Commodity Strategy at Saxo Bank,said, commenting on the latest Commitments of Traders report.</p><p><blockquote>盛宝银行大宗商品策略主管Ole Hansen在评论交易员最新承诺报告时表示，截至2月9日的一周，对冲基金对24种主要商品期货的看涨押注增加了5%，达到270万手的新高，名义价值为1437亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> The combined net long position—the difference between bullish and bearish bets—in Brent and WTI has now increased to the highest in 28 months, while the net long in the grain sector in agriculture is not far from the record set in August 2012, Hansen noted.</p><p><blockquote>汉森指出，布伦特原油和WTI原油的净多头头寸（看涨和看跌押注之间的差额）现已升至28个月来的最高水平，而农业中谷物板块的净多头距离2012年8月创下的纪录不远。</blockquote></p><p> Post-pandemic growth, tightening supply, and continued demand for reflation hedges pushed the Bloomberg Commodity index to a 27-month high, Hansen said.</p><p><blockquote>汉森表示，大流行后的增长、供应收紧以及对通货再膨胀对冲的持续需求将彭博大宗商品指数推至27个月高点。</blockquote></p><p> <b><i>But Is This The Start Of The Next Commodities Supercycle?</i></b></p><p><blockquote><b><i>但这是下一个大宗商品超级周期的开始吗？</i></b></blockquote></p><p> Although crude oil and other commodities have rallied and signals have emerged to support the call for a new supercycle, some analysts are cautious and say it is a little early to proclaim the beginning of the next commodity supercycle.</p><p><blockquote>尽管原油和其他大宗商品出现反弹，并出现了支持看涨期权进入新一轮超级周期的信号，但一些分析师持谨慎态度，称现在宣布下一轮大宗商品超级周期的开始还为时过早。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> What we see in oil and commodities right now is a cyclical recovery, but a supercycle could be “two to three years away,” George Cheveley, portfolio manager at asset management company Ninety One, told&nbsp;Financial Times’ Natural Resources Editor Neil Hume.</p><p><blockquote>资产管理公司Ninety One的投资组合经理George Cheveley对英国《金融时报》自然资源编辑Neil Hume表示，我们目前在石油和大宗商品中看到的是周期性复苏，但超级周期可能“还需要两到三年的时间”。</blockquote></p><p> This bull run is unlikely to turn into a supercycle for commodities, because while investment may be depressed, “the material is abundant” for many commodities, including crude oil, Ed Morse, managing director and global head of commodities research at Citigroup, told the&nbsp;Financial Post&nbsp;in an interview last week.</p><p><blockquote>花旗集团董事总经理兼大宗商品研究全球主管埃德·莫尔斯(Ed Morse)表示，本轮牛市不太可能演变成大宗商品的超级周期，因为尽管投资可能低迷，但包括原油在内的许多大宗商品“材料丰富”。上周接受《金融邮报》采访时。</blockquote></p><p> Commodities have certainly benefited from the optimism that post-COVID growth and stimulus packages will boost demand and prices, but it may be a little premature to trumpet the next decade-long across-the-board commodities supercycle.</p><p><blockquote>大宗商品无疑受益于人们的乐观情绪，即新冠疫情后的增长和刺激计划将提振需求和价格，但现在宣扬下一个长达十年的全面大宗商品超级周期可能还为时过早。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1606109400967","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Is This Oil Rally The Start Of Something Much Bigger?<blockquote>这次油价上涨是更大事件的开始吗？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; 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overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIs This Oil Rally The Start Of Something Much Bigger?<blockquote>这次油价上涨是更大事件的开始吗？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Oilprice</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-02-17 13:37</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Commodities have rallied in recent months, outperforming equity indexes amid expectations of an economic recovery, easy monetary policy, and rising inflation.</p><p><blockquote>在经济复苏、宽松货币政策和通胀上升的预期下，大宗商品近几个月来上涨，表现优于股指。</blockquote></p><p> The commodity bull run across the board—spearheaded by a 50-percent jump in oil prices over the past three months—isn’t finished running, analysts and investment banks say. Some of the biggest investment banks have even started to call the start of a new commodities supercycle, which by definition, lasts years—typically about a decade.</p><p><blockquote>分析师和投资银行表示，在过去三个月油价上涨50%的带动下，大宗商品全面牛市尚未结束。一些最大的投资银行甚至开始看涨期权新的大宗商品超级周期的开始，根据定义，这一周期会持续数年——通常约为十年。</blockquote></p><p> Yet, not all investment banks and analysts are as convinced that we are in for a commodities supercycle across the board, warning that the term<i>supercycle</i>is too optimistic for a bull run that could fizzle out within a year or two and could still fall victim to negative COVID-related impacts.</p><p><blockquote>然而，并非所有投资银行和分析师都相信我们将全面进入大宗商品超级周期，并警告称，<i>超级循环</i>对于牛市来说过于乐观，牛市可能会在一两年内失败，并且仍可能成为与新冠病毒相关的负面影响的受害者。</blockquote></p><p> <b><i>Commodity Rally</i></b></p><p><blockquote><b><i>大宗商品反弹</i></b></blockquote></p><p> As early as in October 2020, a few weeks before the first announcement of an&nbsp;effective vaccine candidate, Goldman Sachs&nbsp;said&nbsp;that commodities were headed toward a bull run in 2021. Hedges against expectations of rising inflation, a weakening U.S. dollar in which most commodities are traded, and signals of “very easy” monetary policy from central banks would be the key drivers of rallying commodities, Goldman Sachs said back then.</p><p><blockquote>早在2020年10月，即首次宣布有效候选疫苗的几周前，高盛就表示大宗商品将在2021年走向牛市。高盛当时表示，对冲通胀上升的预期、大多数大宗商品交易的美元走软以及央行“非常宽松”货币政策的信号将是大宗商品上涨的关键驱动力。</blockquote></p><p> Goldman expected the S&amp;P Goldman Sachs Commodity Index (GSCI) to return 42.6 percent for energy over a 12-month period, and 17.9 percent for precious metals.</p><p><blockquote>高盛预计，标普高盛商品指数(GSCI)在12个月内能源回报率为42.6%，贵金属回报率为17.9%。</blockquote></p><p> Over the past three months, the&nbsp;S&amp;P GSCI has outperformed&nbsp;the S&amp;P 500 index, with the commodity index rising by 25 percent, compared to (just) a 9-percent increase in the S&amp;P 500.</p><p><blockquote>过去三个月，标普GSCI跑赢标普500指数，商品指数上涨25%，相比之下，标普500（仅）上涨9%。</blockquote></p><p> Over the same period, oil prices have rallied from the low $40s to above $60 a barrel, driven by vaccine rollouts, OPEC+ production cuts, and expectations of a tight market and rising oil demand later this year when economies return to growth, helped by large stimulus packages.</p><p><blockquote>同期，受疫苗推出、OPEC+减产以及对今年晚些时候经济恢复增长时市场紧张和石油需求上升的预期推动，油价从每桶40美元的低点反弹至60美元以上。大型刺激方案。</blockquote></p><p> <b><i>Some Drivers Of A New Supercycle Are Here…</i></b></p><p><blockquote><b><i>新超级周期的一些驱动因素在这里……</i></b></blockquote></p><p> According to JPMorgan, there are reasons to believe that a new commodity supercycle may have just started.</p><p><blockquote>摩根大通表示，有理由相信，一个新的大宗商品超级周期可能刚刚开始。</blockquote></p><p> “We believe that the new commodity upswing, and in particular oil up cycle, has started,” JPMorgan analysts led by Marko Kolanovic said in a note last week, as carried by&nbsp;Bloomberg.</p><p><blockquote>据彭博社报道，以马尔科·科拉诺维奇为首的摩根大通分析师上周在一份报告中表示：“我们认为，新的大宗商品上涨，特别是石油上涨周期已经开始。”</blockquote></p><p> The latest commodity supercycle ended in 2008 after a 12-year run, boosted by the super-spending and economic surge in China.</p><p><blockquote>在中国过度支出和经济飙升的推动下，最近一次大宗商品超级周期在经历了12年后于2008年结束。</blockquote></p><p> JPMorgan now sees several&nbsp;potential factors&nbsp;underpinning a new supercycle: post-pandemic global economic growth, “ultra loose” monetary policies, increased and tolerated inflation, weakening U.S. dollar, financial inflows to hedge inflation, metals for energy transition markets such as batteries and electric vehicles (EVs), and underinvestment in new oil supply.</p><p><blockquote>摩根大通现在看到了支撑新超级周期的几个潜在因素：大流行后的全球经济增长、“超宽松”货币政策、通胀上升和可容忍、美元疲软、对冲通胀的资金流入、电池和电动汽车等能源转型市场的金属（EV），以及对新石油供应的投资不足。</blockquote></p><p> The International Energy Agency (IEA)&nbsp;warned&nbsp;last year that if investment in oil were to stay at the 2020 levels over the next five years, it would reduce the previously expected level of oil supply in 2025 by nearly 9 million barrels per day (bpd).</p><p><blockquote>国际能源署（IEA）去年警告称，如果未来五年石油投资保持在2020年的水平，将使此前预期的2025年石油供应水平减少近900万桶/日（bpd）。</blockquote></p><p> This year, global upstream investments will stay low, just like they were in 2020, Wood Mackenzie&nbsp;said&nbsp;in December, expecting upstream oil and gas investment at a 15-year low of just US$300 billion, down by 30 percent from the pre-crisis level of investment in 2019.</p><p><blockquote>Wood Mackenzie在12月表示，今年，全球上游投资将保持在低位，就像2020年一样，预计上游石油和天然气投资将处于15年来的最低点，仅为3000亿美元，比2019年危机前的投资水平下降30%。</blockquote></p><p> “The world may be sleepwalking into a supply crunch, albeit beyond 2021. A recovery in oil demand back to over 100 million b/d by late 2022 increases risk of a material supply gap later this decade, triggering an upward spike in price,” said Simon Flowers, Chairman and Chief Analyst at WoodMac.</p><p><blockquote>“尽管在2021年之后，世界可能会梦游般地陷入供应紧缩。到2022年底，石油需求恢复到1亿桶/日以上，这增加了本十年晚些时候材料供应缺口的风险，引发价格飙升，”WoodMac董事长兼首席分析师西蒙·弗劳尔斯(Simon Flowers)表示。</blockquote></p><p> Then, “very easy monetary policy” and reflation trade could push oil pricesas high as $100 a barrel&nbsp;next year, Amrita Sen, chief oil analyst at Energy Aspects, told Bloomberg earlier this month.</p><p><blockquote>Energy Aspects首席石油分析师阿姆里塔·森(Amrita Sen)本月早些时候对彭博社表示，“非常宽松的货币政策”和通货再膨胀贸易可能会将明年油价推高至每桶100美元。</blockquote></p><p> In the week to February 9, hedge funds increased bullish bets on 24 major commodity futures by 5 percent to a fresh high of 2.7 million lots, representing a nominal value of $143.7 billion, Ole Hansen, Head of Commodity Strategy at Saxo Bank,said, commenting on the latest Commitments of Traders report.</p><p><blockquote>盛宝银行大宗商品策略主管Ole Hansen在评论交易员最新承诺报告时表示，截至2月9日的一周，对冲基金对24种主要商品期货的看涨押注增加了5%，达到270万手的新高，名义价值为1437亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> The combined net long position—the difference between bullish and bearish bets—in Brent and WTI has now increased to the highest in 28 months, while the net long in the grain sector in agriculture is not far from the record set in August 2012, Hansen noted.</p><p><blockquote>汉森指出，布伦特原油和WTI原油的净多头头寸（看涨和看跌押注之间的差额）现已升至28个月来的最高水平，而农业中谷物板块的净多头距离2012年8月创下的纪录不远。</blockquote></p><p> Post-pandemic growth, tightening supply, and continued demand for reflation hedges pushed the Bloomberg Commodity index to a 27-month high, Hansen said.</p><p><blockquote>汉森表示，大流行后的增长、供应收紧以及对通货再膨胀对冲的持续需求将彭博大宗商品指数推至27个月高点。</blockquote></p><p> <b><i>But Is This The Start Of The Next Commodities Supercycle?</i></b></p><p><blockquote><b><i>但这是下一个大宗商品超级周期的开始吗？</i></b></blockquote></p><p> Although crude oil and other commodities have rallied and signals have emerged to support the call for a new supercycle, some analysts are cautious and say it is a little early to proclaim the beginning of the next commodity supercycle.</p><p><blockquote>尽管原油和其他大宗商品出现反弹，并出现了支持看涨期权进入新一轮超级周期的信号，但一些分析师持谨慎态度，称现在宣布下一轮大宗商品超级周期的开始还为时过早。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> What we see in oil and commodities right now is a cyclical recovery, but a supercycle could be “two to three years away,” George Cheveley, portfolio manager at asset management company Ninety One, told&nbsp;Financial Times’ Natural Resources Editor Neil Hume.</p><p><blockquote>资产管理公司Ninety One的投资组合经理George Cheveley对英国《金融时报》自然资源编辑Neil Hume表示，我们目前在石油和大宗商品中看到的是周期性复苏，但超级周期可能“还需要两到三年的时间”。</blockquote></p><p> This bull run is unlikely to turn into a supercycle for commodities, because while investment may be depressed, “the material is abundant” for many commodities, including crude oil, Ed Morse, managing director and global head of commodities research at Citigroup, told the&nbsp;Financial Post&nbsp;in an interview last week.</p><p><blockquote>花旗集团董事总经理兼大宗商品研究全球主管埃德·莫尔斯(Ed Morse)表示，本轮牛市不太可能演变成大宗商品的超级周期，因为尽管投资可能低迷，但包括原油在内的许多大宗商品“材料丰富”。上周接受《金融邮报》采访时。</blockquote></p><p> Commodities have certainly benefited from the optimism that post-COVID growth and stimulus packages will boost demand and prices, but it may be a little premature to trumpet the next decade-long across-the-board commodities supercycle.</p><p><blockquote>大宗商品无疑受益于人们的乐观情绪，即新冠疫情后的增长和刺激计划将提振需求和价格，但现在宣扬下一个长达十年的全面大宗商品超级周期可能还为时过早。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://oilprice.com/Energy/Oil-Prices/Is-This-Oil-Rally-The-Start-Of-Something-Much-Bigger.html\">Oilprice</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://oilprice.com/Energy/Oil-Prices/Is-This-Oil-Rally-The-Start-Of-Something-Much-Bigger.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1146053060","content_text":"Commodities have rallied in recent months, outperforming equity indexes amid expectations of an economic recovery, easy monetary policy, and rising inflation.\nThe commodity bull run across the board—spearheaded by a 50-percent jump in oil prices over the past three months—isn’t finished running, analysts and investment banks say. Some of the biggest investment banks have even started to call the start of a new commodities supercycle, which by definition, lasts years—typically about a decade.\nYet, not all investment banks and analysts are as convinced that we are in for a commodities supercycle across the board, warning that the termsupercycleis too optimistic for a bull run that could fizzle out within a year or two and could still fall victim to negative COVID-related impacts.\nCommodity Rally\nAs early as in October 2020, a few weeks before the first announcement of an effective vaccine candidate, Goldman Sachs said that commodities were headed toward a bull run in 2021. Hedges against expectations of rising inflation, a weakening U.S. dollar in which most commodities are traded, and signals of “very easy” monetary policy from central banks would be the key drivers of rallying commodities, Goldman Sachs said back then.\nGoldman expected the S&P Goldman Sachs Commodity Index (GSCI) to return 42.6 percent for energy over a 12-month period, and 17.9 percent for precious metals.\nOver the past three months, the S&P GSCI has outperformed the S&P 500 index, with the commodity index rising by 25 percent, compared to (just) a 9-percent increase in the S&P 500.\nOver the same period, oil prices have rallied from the low $40s to above $60 a barrel, driven by vaccine rollouts, OPEC+ production cuts, and expectations of a tight market and rising oil demand later this year when economies return to growth, helped by large stimulus packages.\nSome Drivers Of A New Supercycle Are Here…\nAccording to JPMorgan, there are reasons to believe that a new commodity supercycle may have just started.\n“We believe that the new commodity upswing, and in particular oil up cycle, has started,” JPMorgan analysts led by Marko Kolanovic said in a note last week, as carried by Bloomberg.\nThe latest commodity supercycle ended in 2008 after a 12-year run, boosted by the super-spending and economic surge in China.\nJPMorgan now sees several potential factors underpinning a new supercycle: post-pandemic global economic growth, “ultra loose” monetary policies, increased and tolerated inflation, weakening U.S. dollar, financial inflows to hedge inflation, metals for energy transition markets such as batteries and electric vehicles (EVs), and underinvestment in new oil supply.\nThe International Energy Agency (IEA) warned last year that if investment in oil were to stay at the 2020 levels over the next five years, it would reduce the previously expected level of oil supply in 2025 by nearly 9 million barrels per day (bpd).\nThis year, global upstream investments will stay low, just like they were in 2020, Wood Mackenzie said in December, expecting upstream oil and gas investment at a 15-year low of just US$300 billion, down by 30 percent from the pre-crisis level of investment in 2019.\n“The world may be sleepwalking into a supply crunch, albeit beyond 2021. A recovery in oil demand back to over 100 million b/d by late 2022 increases risk of a material supply gap later this decade, triggering an upward spike in price,” said Simon Flowers, Chairman and Chief Analyst at WoodMac.\nThen, “very easy monetary policy” and reflation trade could push oil pricesas high as $100 a barrel next year, Amrita Sen, chief oil analyst at Energy Aspects, told Bloomberg earlier this month.\nIn the week to February 9, hedge funds increased bullish bets on 24 major commodity futures by 5 percent to a fresh high of 2.7 million lots, representing a nominal value of $143.7 billion, Ole Hansen, Head of Commodity Strategy at Saxo Bank,said, commenting on the latest Commitments of Traders report.\nThe combined net long position—the difference between bullish and bearish bets—in Brent and WTI has now increased to the highest in 28 months, while the net long in the grain sector in agriculture is not far from the record set in August 2012, Hansen noted.\nPost-pandemic growth, tightening supply, and continued demand for reflation hedges pushed the Bloomberg Commodity index to a 27-month high, Hansen said.\nBut Is This The Start Of The Next Commodities Supercycle?\nAlthough crude oil and other commodities have rallied and signals have emerged to support the call for a new supercycle, some analysts are cautious and say it is a little early to proclaim the beginning of the next commodity supercycle.\nWhat we see in oil and commodities right now is a cyclical recovery, but a supercycle could be “two to three years away,” George Cheveley, portfolio manager at asset management company Ninety One, told Financial Times’ Natural Resources Editor Neil Hume.\nThis bull run is unlikely to turn into a supercycle for commodities, because while investment may be depressed, “the material is abundant” for many commodities, including crude oil, Ed Morse, managing director and global head of commodities research at Citigroup, told the Financial Post in an interview last week.\nCommodities have certainly benefited from the optimism that post-COVID growth and stimulus packages will boost demand and prices, but it may be a little premature to trumpet the next decade-long across-the-board commodities supercycle.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"CLmain":0.9,"BZmain":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":446,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":361411897,"gmtCreate":1614253866319,"gmtModify":1631890071967,"author":{"id":"3576634944099341","authorId":"3576634944099341","name":"GeeChun","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2d0ca68ff291093e9ac8533ce11b83b4","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576634944099341","idStr":"3576634944099341"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"QS look stable up","listText":"QS look stable up","text":"QS look stable 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now?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/385622718","repostId":"1137917622","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":261,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":387953581,"gmtCreate":1613712818443,"gmtModify":1631890071973,"author":{"id":"3576634944099341","authorId":"3576634944099341","name":"GeeChun","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2d0ca68ff291093e9ac8533ce11b83b4","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576634944099341","idStr":"3576634944099341"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PLTR\">$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$</a>Buy in today?","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PLTR\">$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$</a>Buy in today?","text":"$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$Buy in today?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/387953581","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2547,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":384917846,"gmtCreate":1613606297185,"gmtModify":1631890071976,"author":{"id":"3576634944099341","authorId":"3576634944099341","name":"GeeChun","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2d0ca68ff291093e9ac8533ce11b83b4","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576634944099341","idStr":"3576634944099341"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Not really understand, so Thier stock in market?","listText":"Not really understand, so Thier stock in market?","text":"Not really understand, so Thier stock in 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time to buy the stock?","listText":"Is time to buy the stock?","text":"Is time to buy the stock?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/385621278","repostId":"1117820148","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":243,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}