NI_7551
2024-12-27
我没看错吧SPY新开仓量看跌价格是465和450 [惊吓]
@期权小班长:
低成本碰瓷看跌,每周买彩票的空头惨
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put+sell call日常策略。</p><p> <a data-mention-id=\"SPY\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"标普500ETF\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SPY\">$标普500ETF(SPY)$</a> </p><p>对比看涨期权跟看跌期权到期日和行权价,布局很清晰了,预计1~2月有回调。</p><p>头部开仓数量看跌远高于看涨。头部的看涨开仓的到期日以本周为主,看跌期权则围绕明年1~2月进行布局。上次提到的3月到期565put大单没平仓 <a data-mention-id=\"SPY 20250321 565.0 PUT\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"SPY\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/SPY%2020250321%20565.0%20PUT\">$SPY 20250321 565.0 PUT$</a> </p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8f3deb4ae00349b25e33f6e452c30ebe\" tg-width=\"1040\" tg-height=\"832\"></p><p> <a data-mention-id=\"NVDA\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"英伟达\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">$英伟达(NVDA)$</a> </p><p>英伟达这边,ces电子消费展将于1月8日开启,有一些看涨期权布局,但不多。反倒是看跌期权有一些碰瓷式布局。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0f28a3c578183f2edf066e5b6c8ac210\" tg-width=\"1042\" tg-height=\"610\"></p><p>有人分别买入1月3日,10日,17日80put,我愿称之为低成本碰瓷看跌。此人想法不外乎是多头如此强势,做空爆仓概率很高,但越是憋着不跌,越容易跌个大的,不如每周都买点季度价外行权价赌波动率,反正也没多少钱。</p><p>不愿意重注看跌说明近期下跌概率低,那正常交易即可。</p><p>再说一说 <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/NVDA 20241227 137.0 PUT\">$NVDA 20241227 137.0 PUT$ </a> 跟 <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/NVDA 20241227 138.0 PUT\">$NVDA 20241227 138.0 PUT$ </a> 。</p><p>这两个例子非常典型,我之前说过开仓看期权类型即可,买卖方向次要。</p><p>这两张put大部分交易方向都是卖出,估计是看周一周二英伟达涨的还可以,看涨期权开仓多,所以想稳一手做sell put收割时间价值。结果稳的不够,跟那个sell call机构一个毛病,行权价过于贴近股价起到了反向影响,今日开盘股价向138偏移。</p><p>等他们今天割肉股价就反弹了。</p><p>sell call机构移仓142-147,也有点被迫割肉的意思:</p><ul style=\"\"><li><p> 卖<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/NVDA 20250103 142.0 CALL\">$NVDA 20250103 142.0 CALL$ </a> </p></li><li><p> 买<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/NVDA 20250103 147.0 CALL\">$NVDA 20250103 147.0 CALL$ </a> </p></li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5e8d609820803ef44402c25047d5be03\" tg-width=\"2606\" tg-height=\"258\"></p><p>唯一需要注意的空头单腿看跌1月到期141put: <a data-mention-id=\"NVDA 20250117 141.0 PUT\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"NVDA\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/NVDA%2020250117%20141.0%20PUT\">$NVDA 20250117 141.0 PUT$</a> 开仓1.2万手。1月份最危险的日子莫过于川普就任后到1月底FOMC开会,暴跌借口太多了。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b2c45323df7328941b19ee8b927428b2\" tg-width=\"2602\" tg-height=\"198\"></p><p>我继续持股+sell 135put +sell 150call。</p><p> <a data-mention-id=\"TSLA\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"特斯拉\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$</a> </p><p>低成本碰瓷看跌的味儿跟英伟达一模一样。</p><p>近期特斯拉期权开仓都不太好分析,看涨看跌都过于离谱,不具有参考价值。但仔细一想这也说明空头拿特斯拉无可奈何,降低做空成本的方法就是每周买200左右行权价的看跌彩票。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b8142a9487fb46a164d35ea52d2b1c7b\" tg-width=\"1044\" tg-height=\"644\"></p><p>既然空头不愿意一本正经做空,那我特斯拉put平仓了。改成sell put400了 <a data-mention-id=\"TSLA 20250103 400.0 PUT\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"TSLA\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/TSLA%2020250103%20400.0%20PUT\">$TSLA 20250103 400.0 PUT$</a> 。</p><p>接盘是不怕的,今年第一政治正确概念古。看涨期权开仓行权价说离谱也不太离谱,你想想6月28日马斯克过生日得涨吧,然后7月4日独立日也得涨吧,那涨多少合适呢?</p><p> <a data-mention-id=\"PLTR\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"Palantir Technologies Inc.\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PLTR\">$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$</a> </p><p>以后常驻加一个pltr,pltr期权流动性非常好,仅次于特斯拉跟英伟达,比较容易跟踪。</p><p>近期大单是机构roll仓看涨单,行权价80到期日2月21</p><ul style=\"\"><li><p> <a data-mention-id=\"PLTR 20250221 80.0 CALL\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"PLTR\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/PLTR%2020250221%2080.0%20CALL\">$PLTR 20250221 80.0 CALL$</a> </p></li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bc062d64d3cadb537bb4d32659fc4267\" tg-width=\"2606\" tg-height=\"152\"></p><p>机构本周对于pltr的看涨价差策略是卖83买88:</p><ul style=\"\"><li><p>卖 <a data-mention-id=\"PLTR 20241227 83.0 CALL\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"PLTR\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/PLTR%2020241227%2083.0%20CALL\">$PLTR 20241227 83.0 CALL$</a> </p></li><li><p>买 <a data-mention-id=\"PLTR 20241227 88.0 CALL\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"PLTR\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/PLTR%2020241227%2088.0%20CALL\">$PLTR 20241227 88.0 CALL$</a> </p></li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6ec374f38dd7c98b38f744b83ea97b2e\" tg-width=\"2602\" tg-height=\"264\"></p><p></p><p></p><h4 id=\"id_4003150835\">常见问题回复:</h4><p>1、组合订单买卖方向你说的跟图片显示的不一样是怎么回事?</p><p>程序判断的买卖方向根据期权成交价距离买价和卖价间的位置,偏向买方价格是卖出(成交价偏低),偏向卖方价格是买入(成交价偏高)。但期权下单方法很多,不全是电子交易,价格偏离度并不能准确反映成交方向。比如在交易所场内达成的场内订单,双方交易员直接达成成交,成交价经常偏离电子软件显示的即时买卖价。</p><p>2、那我怎么判断是不是场内交易大单?</p><p>期权流动性远远低于股票,所以万手以上一次性成交,即成交量显示为一根线,很大概率是场内。</p><p>3、方向不对大单筛选是不是就没用了?</p><p>方向只是辅助,call就是call,put就是put。call开仓多就是看涨,put开仓多就是看跌。到期日跟行权价也是很重要的线索。</p></body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body><p>空头步步退让,预计中的暴跌延迟到了1~2月,所以近期该怎么做就怎么做,回归正常sell put+sell call日常策略。</p><p> <a data-mention-id=\"SPY\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"标普500ETF\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SPY\">$标普500ETF(SPY)$</a> </p><p>对比看涨期权跟看跌期权到期日和行权价,布局很清晰了,预计1~2月有回调。</p><p>头部开仓数量看跌远高于看涨。头部的看涨开仓的到期日以本周为主,看跌期权则围绕明年1~2月进行布局。上次提到的3月到期565put大单没平仓 <a data-mention-id=\"SPY 20250321 565.0 PUT\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"SPY\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/SPY%2020250321%20565.0%20PUT\">$SPY 20250321 565.0 PUT$</a> </p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8f3deb4ae00349b25e33f6e452c30ebe\" tg-width=\"1040\" tg-height=\"832\"></p><p> <a data-mention-id=\"NVDA\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"英伟达\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">$英伟达(NVDA)$</a> </p><p>英伟达这边,ces电子消费展将于1月8日开启,有一些看涨期权布局,但不多。反倒是看跌期权有一些碰瓷式布局。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0f28a3c578183f2edf066e5b6c8ac210\" tg-width=\"1042\" tg-height=\"610\"></p><p>有人分别买入1月3日,10日,17日80put,我愿称之为低成本碰瓷看跌。此人想法不外乎是多头如此强势,做空爆仓概率很高,但越是憋着不跌,越容易跌个大的,不如每周都买点季度价外行权价赌波动率,反正也没多少钱。</p><p>不愿意重注看跌说明近期下跌概率低,那正常交易即可。</p><p>再说一说 <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/NVDA 20241227 137.0 PUT\">$NVDA 20241227 137.0 PUT$ </a> 跟 <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/NVDA 20241227 138.0 PUT\">$NVDA 20241227 138.0 PUT$ </a> 。</p><p>这两个例子非常典型,我之前说过开仓看期权类型即可,买卖方向次要。</p><p>这两张put大部分交易方向都是卖出,估计是看周一周二英伟达涨的还可以,看涨期权开仓多,所以想稳一手做sell put收割时间价值。结果稳的不够,跟那个sell call机构一个毛病,行权价过于贴近股价起到了反向影响,今日开盘股价向138偏移。</p><p>等他们今天割肉股价就反弹了。</p><p>sell call机构移仓142-147,也有点被迫割肉的意思:</p><ul style=\"\"><li><p> 卖<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/NVDA 20250103 142.0 CALL\">$NVDA 20250103 142.0 CALL$ </a> </p></li><li><p> 买<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/NVDA 20250103 147.0 CALL\">$NVDA 20250103 147.0 CALL$ </a> </p></li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5e8d609820803ef44402c25047d5be03\" tg-width=\"2606\" tg-height=\"258\"></p><p>唯一需要注意的空头单腿看跌1月到期141put: <a data-mention-id=\"NVDA 20250117 141.0 PUT\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"NVDA\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/NVDA%2020250117%20141.0%20PUT\">$NVDA 20250117 141.0 PUT$</a> 开仓1.2万手。1月份最危险的日子莫过于川普就任后到1月底FOMC开会,暴跌借口太多了。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b2c45323df7328941b19ee8b927428b2\" tg-width=\"2602\" tg-height=\"198\"></p><p>我继续持股+sell 135put +sell 150call。</p><p> <a data-mention-id=\"TSLA\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"特斯拉\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$</a> </p><p>低成本碰瓷看跌的味儿跟英伟达一模一样。</p><p>近期特斯拉期权开仓都不太好分析,看涨看跌都过于离谱,不具有参考价值。但仔细一想这也说明空头拿特斯拉无可奈何,降低做空成本的方法就是每周买200左右行权价的看跌彩票。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b8142a9487fb46a164d35ea52d2b1c7b\" tg-width=\"1044\" tg-height=\"644\"></p><p>既然空头不愿意一本正经做空,那我特斯拉put平仓了。改成sell put400了 <a data-mention-id=\"TSLA 20250103 400.0 PUT\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"TSLA\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/TSLA%2020250103%20400.0%20PUT\">$TSLA 20250103 400.0 PUT$</a> 。</p><p>接盘是不怕的,今年第一政治正确概念古。看涨期权开仓行权价说离谱也不太离谱,你想想6月28日马斯克过生日得涨吧,然后7月4日独立日也得涨吧,那涨多少合适呢?</p><p> <a data-mention-id=\"PLTR\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"Palantir Technologies Inc.\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PLTR\">$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$</a> </p><p>以后常驻加一个pltr,pltr期权流动性非常好,仅次于特斯拉跟英伟达,比较容易跟踪。</p><p>近期大单是机构roll仓看涨单,行权价80到期日2月21</p><ul style=\"\"><li><p> <a data-mention-id=\"PLTR 20250221 80.0 CALL\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"PLTR\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/PLTR%2020250221%2080.0%20CALL\">$PLTR 20250221 80.0 CALL$</a> </p></li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bc062d64d3cadb537bb4d32659fc4267\" tg-width=\"2606\" tg-height=\"152\"></p><p>机构本周对于pltr的看涨价差策略是卖83买88:</p><ul style=\"\"><li><p>卖 <a data-mention-id=\"PLTR 20241227 83.0 CALL\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"PLTR\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/PLTR%2020241227%2083.0%20CALL\">$PLTR 20241227 83.0 CALL$</a> </p></li><li><p>买 <a data-mention-id=\"PLTR 20241227 88.0 CALL\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"PLTR\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/PLTR%2020241227%2088.0%20CALL\">$PLTR 20241227 88.0 CALL$</a> </p></li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6ec374f38dd7c98b38f744b83ea97b2e\" tg-width=\"2602\" tg-height=\"264\"></p><p></p><p></p><h4 id=\"id_4003150835\">常见问题回复:</h4><p>1、组合订单买卖方向你说的跟图片显示的不一样是怎么回事?</p><p>程序判断的买卖方向根据期权成交价距离买价和卖价间的位置,偏向买方价格是卖出(成交价偏低),偏向卖方价格是买入(成交价偏高)。但期权下单方法很多,不全是电子交易,价格偏离度并不能准确反映成交方向。比如在交易所场内达成的场内订单,双方交易员直接达成成交,成交价经常偏离电子软件显示的即时买卖价。</p><p>2、那我怎么判断是不是场内交易大单?</p><p>期权流动性远远低于股票,所以万手以上一次性成交,即成交量显示为一根线,很大概率是场内。</p><p>3、方向不对大单筛选是不是就没用了?</p><p>方向只是辅助,call就是call,put就是put。call开仓多就是看涨,put开仓多就是看跌。到期日跟行权价也是很重要的线索。</p></body></html>","text":"空头步步退让,预计中的暴跌延迟到了1~2月,所以近期该怎么做就怎么做,回归正常sell put+sell call日常策略。 $标普500ETF(SPY)$ 对比看涨期权跟看跌期权到期日和行权价,布局很清晰了,预计1~2月有回调。 头部开仓数量看跌远高于看涨。头部的看涨开仓的到期日以本周为主,看跌期权则围绕明年1~2月进行布局。上次提到的3月到期565put大单没平仓 $SPY 20250321 565.0 PUT$ $英伟达(NVDA)$ 英伟达这边,ces电子消费展将于1月8日开启,有一些看涨期权布局,但不多。反倒是看跌期权有一些碰瓷式布局。 有人分别买入1月3日,10日,17日80put,我愿称之为低成本碰瓷看跌。此人想法不外乎是多头如此强势,做空爆仓概率很高,但越是憋着不跌,越容易跌个大的,不如每周都买点季度价外行权价赌波动率,反正也没多少钱。 不愿意重注看跌说明近期下跌概率低,那正常交易即可。 再说一说 $NVDA 20241227 137.0 PUT$ 跟 $NVDA 20241227 138.0 PUT$ 。 这两个例子非常典型,我之前说过开仓看期权类型即可,买卖方向次要。 这两张put大部分交易方向都是卖出,估计是看周一周二英伟达涨的还可以,看涨期权开仓多,所以想稳一手做sell put收割时间价值。结果稳的不够,跟那个sell call机构一个毛病,行权价过于贴近股价起到了反向影响,今日开盘股价向138偏移。 等他们今天割肉股价就反弹了。 sell call机构移仓142-147,也有点被迫割肉的意思: 卖$NVDA 20250103 142.0 CALL$ 买$NVDA 20250103 147.0 CALL$ 唯一需要注意的空头单腿看跌1月到期141put: $NVDA 20250117 141.0 PUT$ 开仓1.2万手。1月份最危险的日子莫过于川普就任后到1月底FOMC开会,暴跌借口太多了。 我继续持股+sell 135put +sell 150call。 $特斯拉(TSLA)$ 低成本碰瓷看跌的味儿跟英伟达一模一样。 近期特斯拉期权开仓都不太好分析,看涨看跌都过于离谱,不具有参考价值。但仔细一想这也说明空头拿特斯拉无可奈何,降低做空成本的方法就是每周买200左右行权价的看跌彩票。 既然空头不愿意一本正经做空,那我特斯拉put平仓了。改成sell put400了 $TSLA 20250103 400.0 PUT$ 。 接盘是不怕的,今年第一政治正确概念古。看涨期权开仓行权价说离谱也不太离谱,你想想6月28日马斯克过生日得涨吧,然后7月4日独立日也得涨吧,那涨多少合适呢? $Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$ 以后常驻加一个pltr,pltr期权流动性非常好,仅次于特斯拉跟英伟达,比较容易跟踪。 近期大单是机构roll仓看涨单,行权价80到期日2月21 $PLTR 20250221 80.0 CALL$ 机构本周对于pltr的看涨价差策略是卖83买88: 卖 $PLTR 20241227 83.0 CALL$ 买 $PLTR 20241227 88.0 CALL$ 常见问题回复: 1、组合订单买卖方向你说的跟图片显示的不一样是怎么回事? 程序判断的买卖方向根据期权成交价距离买价和卖价间的位置,偏向买方价格是卖出(成交价偏低),偏向卖方价格是买入(成交价偏高)。但期权下单方法很多,不全是电子交易,价格偏离度并不能准确反映成交方向。比如在交易所场内达成的场内订单,双方交易员直接达成成交,成交价经常偏离电子软件显示的即时买卖价。 2、那我怎么判断是不是场内交易大单? 期权流动性远远低于股票,所以万手以上一次性成交,即成交量显示为一根线,很大概率是场内。 3、方向不对大单筛选是不是就没用了? 方向只是辅助,call就是call,put就是put。call开仓多就是看涨,put开仓多就是看跌。到期日跟行权价也是很重要的线索。","highlighted":1,"essential":2,"paper":2,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/385918016499912","repostId":0,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"commentLimit":10,"symbols":["NVDA","TSLA","SPY","PLTR"],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":2585,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1376,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":45,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/386038765621736"}
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