Damn_老虎社区_美港股上老虎

2021-02-08

Damn

Where Can Investors Hide as a Bubble Inflates?<blockquote>随着泡沫膨胀，投资者可以躲在哪里？</blockquote>

免责声明：上述内容仅代表发帖人个人观点，不构成本平台的任何投资建议。

精彩评论

我们需要你的真知灼见来填补这片空白

发表看法

{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"detailType":1,"isChannel":false,"data":{"magic":2,"id":389690519,"tweetId":"389690519","gmtCreate":1612759657531,"gmtModify":1703764676090,"author":{"id":3574943968736312,"idStr":"3574943968736312","authorId":3574943968736312,"authorIdStr":"3574943968736312","name":"Dendenislit","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8650796e48e17621c226e2bfd4ca39a4","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"wearingBadges":[],"fanSize":1,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"title":"","extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body>Damn</body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body>Damn</body></html>","text":"Damn","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/389690519","repostId":1180268693,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1180268693","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1612755259,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1180268693?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-02-08 11:34","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Where Can Investors Hide as a Bubble Inflates?<blockquote>随着泡沫膨胀，投资者可以躲在哪里？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1180268693","media":"Barrons","summary":"Let’s settle one thing up front. We’re clearly witnessing a speculative bubble in the financial mark","content":"Let’s settle one thing up front. We’re clearly witnessing a speculative bubble in the financial markets. This time is no different. This mania will end the same way they all do: in tears.<blockquote>让我们先解决一件事。我们显然正在目睹金融市场的投机泡沫。这次也不例外。这种狂热将以同样的方式结束：在眼泪中。</blockquote> I started banging the gong in mid-2020 about the imminent risk of financial crisis stemming from three potential causes: a severe market correction, a deteriorating U.S. fiscal position from unsustainable growth in deficits and debt, and the inflation that was likely to follow.<blockquote>我在2020年年中开始敲锣打鼓，担心迫在眉睫的金融危机风险源于三个潜在原因：严重的市场调整、赤字和债务不可持续的增长导致美国财政状况恶化，以及可能随之而来的通货膨胀。</blockquote> At that time, this viewpoint was greeted with a heavy dose of skepticism. Inflationary views were considered fringe. Respected economists were quick to point out the lack of demand for money relative to rapidly expanding supply, slack in the lockdown economy, and prevailing expectations for deflation based on recent history. Wall Street has little incentive to call a market bubble. Fees are made and bonuses paid when optimism, activity and volatility are high, not by predictions of impending doom. The euphorias of bubbles are like the best narcotics—stimulative and somewhat hypnotic. But the bigger the high, the worse the comedown.<blockquote>当时，这种观点遭到了强烈的怀疑。通货膨胀观点被认为是边缘的。受人尊敬的经济学家很快指出，相对于快速扩张的供应，货币需求不足，封锁经济的疲软，以及基于近期历史的通货紧缩普遍预期。华尔街几乎没有动力看涨期权市场泡沫。当乐观、活动和波动性很高时，就会收取费用并支付奖金，而不是通过对即将到来的厄运的预测。泡泡的欣快感就像最好的麻醉剂——既刺激又有点催眠。但是高潮越大，下降就越糟糕。</blockquote> These contrarian views of inflation and market correction have now become mainstream. The warning signs of market mania are evident inBitcoin(up 300% in a year), the deluge ofSPAC IPOs(always a signal of a top), exorbitantP/E ratios, and rapidly rising real estateprices. These, along with retail-driven short squeezes and mini-bubbles, are symptoms of underlying conditions set in motion long ago by a flood of liquidity unleashed by the Federal Reserve. This time is different, however, in one important way. When this bubble bursts, the Fed can no longer prop up the market by lowering interest rates. Real rates, which were about 4% before the global financial crisis, are now below zero almost everywhere.<blockquote>这些对通货膨胀和市场修正的逆向观点现在已经成为主流。市场狂热的警告信号在比特币（一年内上涨300%）、SPAC大量IPO（始终是顶部的信号）、过高的市盈率和快速上涨的房地产价格中显而易见。这些，以及零售驱动的空头挤压和迷你泡沫，都是很久以前美联储释放的大量流动性引发的潜在条件的症状。然而，这一次在一个重要方面有所不同。当这个泡沫破裂时，美联储无法再通过降低利率来支撑市场。全球金融危机前的实际利率约为4%，现在几乎所有地方的实际利率都低于零。</blockquote> The Biden administration is expected to unleash a blue wave of stimulus and other spending. This comes at a time when the revenue base is eroding, and the U.S. is no longer in a sound fiscal position. It is only a matter of time until government struggles to efficiently borrow against a gaping deficit and compounding debt. In 2020 alone, the U.S. government spent $3 trillion on pandemic relief while suffering a $2.1 trilliondecline in national incomefrom crippling lockdowns in our most economically important states, many of which continue today. By the end of fiscal 2020, total U.S. governmentdebtwas $27 trillion, up 20% from 2019 and triple the amount prior to the financial crisis. The Fed has absorbed a lot of this increase. Bond investors are rightly nervous.<blockquote>拜登政府预计将推出刺激计划和其他支出的蓝色浪潮。此时，收入基础正在侵蚀，美国不再处于稳健的财政状况。政府难以有效地借款来应对赤字扩大和债务复合只是时间问题。仅在2020年，美国政府就在疫情救济上花费了3万亿美元，而由于我们最重要的经济州的严重封锁，国民收入下降了2.1万亿美元，其中许多州至今仍在继续。截至2020财年末，美国政府债务总额为27万亿美元，比2019年增长20%，是金融危机前的三倍。美联储已经吸收了很多这种增长。债券投资者有理由感到紧张。</blockquote> It is no surprise that the Fed has since adopted apro-inflation stance. An unspoken objective is to erode the topsoil from the mountain of U.S. debt at the expense of Americans. Inflation is a hidden tax that will eat away our purchasing power. Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff remind us inThis Time is Differentthat throughout history, “the main device for defaulting on government obligations was… debasing the content of coinage. Modern currency presses are just a technologically advanced and more efficient approach to achieving the same end.” They note, “government debt is… often the unifying problem across the wide range of financial crises.”<blockquote>美联储此后采取支持通胀的立场也就不足为奇了。一个不言而喻的目标是以牺牲美国人的利益为代价，侵蚀美国债务堆积如山的表土。通货膨胀是一种隐性税收，会蚕食我们的购买力。卡门·莱因哈特和肯尼斯·罗格夫提醒我们这次不一样纵观历史，“拖欠政府债务的主要手段是.贬低铸币内容。现代印钞机只是实现这一目的的一种技术先进、效率更高的方法”。他们指出，“政府债务.往往是各种金融危机的统一问题”。</blockquote> Prices are now rising in inflation bellwethers such as industrial metals, energy, and food commodities. The dollar haslost85% of its purchasing power since 1970. While a majority of this can be attributed to high inflation in the 1970s, even the supposedly deflationary 21st century has witnessed the erosion of one-third of the value of the dollar since 2000.<blockquote>工业金属、能源和食品等通胀风向标的价格目前正在上涨。自1970年以来，美元已经失去了85%的购买力。虽然这在很大程度上可以归因于20世纪70年代的高通胀，但即使是被认为是通货紧缩的21世纪，自2000年以来，美元价值也贬值了三分之一。</blockquote> Rising inflation expectations go a long way in explaining the vertiginous ascent of the equity markets in the face of a partially closed economy with muted growth. As lockdowns and travel restrictions ease, pent-up demand will pressure global supply chains and thus prices. We can expect to see a further acceleration of inflation as early as this spring as economies reopen.<blockquote>面对部分封闭、增长乏力的经济，通胀预期上升在很大程度上解释了股市的飙升。随着封锁和旅行限制的放松，被压抑的需求将给全球供应链带来压力，从而给价格带来压力。随着经济重新开放，我们预计最早在今年春天就会看到通胀进一步加速。</blockquote> Where can one thrive, or at least hide, in this environment? U.S. equity markets are vastly overvalued by any historic measure, but bonds and cash are both danger zones in inflation. While conventional wisdom says to stay invested, it may be a good time to take some chips off of the table. Resist “FOMO,” the fear of missing out. If one has to stay invested, avoid the temptation of high-flying tech and growth equities, which are the most overvalued, in favor of diversifying among recently abandoned dividend-paying value stocks and emerging markets. Inflation-sensitive commodity (food, metals, and energy) producers should perform going forward. Gold has a millennia-long history of serving as a store of value and inflationary hedge, but pays no dividends along the way.<blockquote>在这种环境下，一个人可以在哪里茁壮成长，或者至少可以隐藏起来？以任何历史衡量标准来看，美国股市都被严重高估，但债券和现金都是通货膨胀的危险区。虽然传统观点认为要保持投资，但现在可能是拿出一些筹码的好时机。抵制 “FOMO”，害怕错过。如果必须继续投资，请避免估值最高的高速科技股和成长型股票的诱惑，转而投资最近放弃的派息价值股和新兴市场。对通胀敏感的大宗商品（食品、金属和能源）生产商应该会继续表现。黄金作为价值储存和通胀对冲有着数千年的历史，但在此过程中不支付股息。</blockquote> Bitcoin similarly earns no yield. Cryptocurrencies have no intrinsic value, and, like fiat currencies, are worth whatever the market happens to believe. When the euphoria wears off, they may be hit hard. Besides, Bitcoin is a stacked game easily manipulated given the high concentration ofownershipby whales.<blockquote>比特币同样没有收益。加密货币没有内在价值，而且像法定货币一样，无论市场碰巧相信什么，都值得。当兴奋感消退时，他们可能会受到沉重打击。此外，鉴于鲸鱼的所有权高度集中，比特币是一个易于操纵的堆叠游戏。</blockquote> Watch out for gearing in investments, whether in securities or real estate. If markets collapse, leverage will rapidly eat into the remaining value. Look for hidden exposure to risk (including inflation) in retirement accounts. Invest in hard assets not correlated to the markets. Stay liquid to exploit the inevitable correction.<blockquote>无论是证券还是房地产，都要小心投资的杠杆率。如果市场崩溃，杠杆将迅速侵蚀剩余价值。寻找退休账户中隐藏的风险敞口（包括通货膨胀）。投资与市场无关的硬资产。保持流动性以利用不可避免的修正。</blockquote> We need to increase the pressure on our elected officials to cut the pork and reopen our economies. Americans want to get back to work. So-called stimulus funding is not getting into the hands of those who need it most. Ultimately, it’s the real economy, not financial markets, that drive growth and prosperity. That requires local businesses open, workers re-engaged, and productive capital investments made.<blockquote>我们需要加大对我们民选官员的压力，让他们削减猪肉，重新开放我们的经济。美国人想回去工作。所谓的刺激资金并没有落入最需要的人手中。归根结底，推动增长和繁荣的是实体经济，而不是金融市场。这需要当地企业开放，工人重新参与，并进行生产性资本投资。</blockquote> This is not doom and gloom. Since the problem is not a banking-sector credit crisis, and the underlying economy remains healthy (albeit weakened), postcorrection recovery may come more quickly and easily than following the financial crisis. While persistent inflation can create a host of problems, it usually supports fuller employment, and both producers and consumers will adapt to a changing price environment. In the meantime, it may be best to stay liquid and wait this one out. As spring follows even the darkest winter, the opportune time will come again.<blockquote>这不是厄运和黑暗。由于问题不是银行业信贷危机，而且基础经济仍然健康（尽管有所减弱），调整后的复苏可能会比金融危机后更快、更容易。虽然持续的通货膨胀会造成一系列问题，但它通常会支持更充分就业，生产者和消费者都会适应不断变化的价格环境。与此同时，最好保持液体，等待这个出来。春天甚至在最黑暗的冬天之后，合适的时机还会再次到来。</blockquote>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Where Can Investors Hide as a Bubble Inflates?<blockquote>随着泡沫膨胀，投资者可以躲在哪里？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhere Can Investors Hide as a Bubble Inflates?<blockquote>随着泡沫膨胀，投资者可以躲在哪里？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nBarrons2021-02-08 11:34\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nLet’s settle one thing up front. We’re clearly witnessing a speculative bubble in the financial markets. This time is no different. This mania will end the same way they all do: in tears.<blockquote>让我们先解决一件事。我们显然正在目睹金融市场的投机泡沫。这次也不例外。这种狂热将以同样的方式结束：在眼泪中。</blockquote> I started banging the gong in mid-2020 about the imminent risk of financial crisis stemming from three potential causes: a severe market correction, a deteriorating U.S. fiscal position from unsustainable growth in deficits and debt, and the inflation that was likely to follow.<blockquote>我在2020年年中开始敲锣打鼓，担心迫在眉睫的金融危机风险源于三个潜在原因：严重的市场调整、赤字和债务不可持续的增长导致美国财政状况恶化，以及可能随之而来的通货膨胀。</blockquote> At that time, this viewpoint was greeted with a heavy dose of skepticism. Inflationary views were considered fringe. Respected economists were quick to point out the lack of demand for money relative to rapidly expanding supply, slack in the lockdown economy, and prevailing expectations for deflation based on recent history. Wall Street has little incentive to call a market bubble. Fees are made and bonuses paid when optimism, activity and volatility are high, not by predictions of impending doom. The euphorias of bubbles are like the best narcotics—stimulative and somewhat hypnotic. But the bigger the high, the worse the comedown.<blockquote>当时，这种观点遭到了强烈的怀疑。通货膨胀观点被认为是边缘的。受人尊敬的经济学家很快指出，相对于快速扩张的供应，货币需求不足，封锁经济的疲软，以及基于近期历史的通货紧缩普遍预期。华尔街几乎没有动力看涨期权市场泡沫。当乐观、活动和波动性很高时，就会收取费用并支付奖金，而不是通过对即将到来的厄运的预测。泡泡的欣快感就像最好的麻醉剂——既刺激又有点催眠。但是高潮越大，下降就越糟糕。</blockquote> These contrarian views of inflation and market correction have now become mainstream. The warning signs of market mania are evident inBitcoin(up 300% in a year), the deluge ofSPAC IPOs(always a signal of a top), exorbitantP/E ratios, and rapidly rising real estateprices. These, along with retail-driven short squeezes and mini-bubbles, are symptoms of underlying conditions set in motion long ago by a flood of liquidity unleashed by the Federal Reserve. This time is different, however, in one important way. When this bubble bursts, the Fed can no longer prop up the market by lowering interest rates. Real rates, which were about 4% before the global financial crisis, are now below zero almost everywhere.<blockquote>这些对通货膨胀和市场修正的逆向观点现在已经成为主流。市场狂热的警告信号在比特币（一年内上涨300%）、SPAC大量IPO（始终是顶部的信号）、过高的市盈率和快速上涨的房地产价格中显而易见。这些，以及零售驱动的空头挤压和迷你泡沫，都是很久以前美联储释放的大量流动性引发的潜在条件的症状。然而，这一次在一个重要方面有所不同。当这个泡沫破裂时，美联储无法再通过降低利率来支撑市场。全球金融危机前的实际利率约为4%，现在几乎所有地方的实际利率都低于零。</blockquote> The Biden administration is expected to unleash a blue wave of stimulus and other spending. This comes at a time when the revenue base is eroding, and the U.S. is no longer in a sound fiscal position. It is only a matter of time until government struggles to efficiently borrow against a gaping deficit and compounding debt. In 2020 alone, the U.S. government spent $3 trillion on pandemic relief while suffering a $2.1 trilliondecline in national incomefrom crippling lockdowns in our most economically important states, many of which continue today. By the end of fiscal 2020, total U.S. governmentdebtwas $27 trillion, up 20% from 2019 and triple the amount prior to the financial crisis. The Fed has absorbed a lot of this increase. Bond investors are rightly nervous.<blockquote>拜登政府预计将推出刺激计划和其他支出的蓝色浪潮。此时，收入基础正在侵蚀，美国不再处于稳健的财政状况。政府难以有效地借款来应对赤字扩大和债务复合只是时间问题。仅在2020年，美国政府就在疫情救济上花费了3万亿美元，而由于我们最重要的经济州的严重封锁，国民收入下降了2.1万亿美元，其中许多州至今仍在继续。截至2020财年末，美国政府债务总额为27万亿美元，比2019年增长20%，是金融危机前的三倍。美联储已经吸收了很多这种增长。债券投资者有理由感到紧张。</blockquote> It is no surprise that the Fed has since adopted apro-inflation stance. An unspoken objective is to erode the topsoil from the mountain of U.S. debt at the expense of Americans. Inflation is a hidden tax that will eat away our purchasing power. Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff remind us inThis Time is Differentthat throughout history, “the main device for defaulting on government obligations was… debasing the content of coinage. Modern currency presses are just a technologically advanced and more efficient approach to achieving the same end.” They note, “government debt is… often the unifying problem across the wide range of financial crises.”<blockquote>美联储此后采取支持通胀的立场也就不足为奇了。一个不言而喻的目标是以牺牲美国人的利益为代价，侵蚀美国债务堆积如山的表土。通货膨胀是一种隐性税收，会蚕食我们的购买力。卡门·莱因哈特和肯尼斯·罗格夫提醒我们这次不一样纵观历史，“拖欠政府债务的主要手段是.贬低铸币内容。现代印钞机只是实现这一目的的一种技术先进、效率更高的方法”。他们指出，“政府债务.往往是各种金融危机的统一问题”。</blockquote> Prices are now rising in inflation bellwethers such as industrial metals, energy, and food commodities. The dollar haslost85% of its purchasing power since 1970. While a majority of this can be attributed to high inflation in the 1970s, even the supposedly deflationary 21st century has witnessed the erosion of one-third of the value of the dollar since 2000.<blockquote>工业金属、能源和食品等通胀风向标的价格目前正在上涨。自1970年以来，美元已经失去了85%的购买力。虽然这在很大程度上可以归因于20世纪70年代的高通胀，但即使是被认为是通货紧缩的21世纪，自2000年以来，美元价值也贬值了三分之一。</blockquote> Rising inflation expectations go a long way in explaining the vertiginous ascent of the equity markets in the face of a partially closed economy with muted growth. As lockdowns and travel restrictions ease, pent-up demand will pressure global supply chains and thus prices. We can expect to see a further acceleration of inflation as early as this spring as economies reopen.<blockquote>面对部分封闭、增长乏力的经济，通胀预期上升在很大程度上解释了股市的飙升。随着封锁和旅行限制的放松，被压抑的需求将给全球供应链带来压力，从而给价格带来压力。随着经济重新开放，我们预计最早在今年春天就会看到通胀进一步加速。</blockquote> Where can one thrive, or at least hide, in this environment? U.S. equity markets are vastly overvalued by any historic measure, but bonds and cash are both danger zones in inflation. While conventional wisdom says to stay invested, it may be a good time to take some chips off of the table. Resist “FOMO,” the fear of missing out. If one has to stay invested, avoid the temptation of high-flying tech and growth equities, which are the most overvalued, in favor of diversifying among recently abandoned dividend-paying value stocks and emerging markets. Inflation-sensitive commodity (food, metals, and energy) producers should perform going forward. Gold has a millennia-long history of serving as a store of value and inflationary hedge, but pays no dividends along the way.<blockquote>在这种环境下，一个人可以在哪里茁壮成长，或者至少可以隐藏起来？以任何历史衡量标准来看，美国股市都被严重高估，但债券和现金都是通货膨胀的危险区。虽然传统观点认为要保持投资，但现在可能是拿出一些筹码的好时机。抵制 “FOMO”，害怕错过。如果必须继续投资，请避免估值最高的高速科技股和成长型股票的诱惑，转而投资最近放弃的派息价值股和新兴市场。对通胀敏感的大宗商品（食品、金属和能源）生产商应该会继续表现。黄金作为价值储存和通胀对冲有着数千年的历史，但在此过程中不支付股息。</blockquote> Bitcoin similarly earns no yield. Cryptocurrencies have no intrinsic value, and, like fiat currencies, are worth whatever the market happens to believe. When the euphoria wears off, they may be hit hard. Besides, Bitcoin is a stacked game easily manipulated given the high concentration ofownershipby whales.<blockquote>比特币同样没有收益。加密货币没有内在价值，而且像法定货币一样，无论市场碰巧相信什么，都值得。当兴奋感消退时，他们可能会受到沉重打击。此外，鉴于鲸鱼的所有权高度集中，比特币是一个易于操纵的堆叠游戏。</blockquote> Watch out for gearing in investments, whether in securities or real estate. If markets collapse, leverage will rapidly eat into the remaining value. Look for hidden exposure to risk (including inflation) in retirement accounts. Invest in hard assets not correlated to the markets. Stay liquid to exploit the inevitable correction.<blockquote>无论是证券还是房地产，都要小心投资的杠杆率。如果市场崩溃，杠杆将迅速侵蚀剩余价值。寻找退休账户中隐藏的风险敞口（包括通货膨胀）。投资与市场无关的硬资产。保持流动性以利用不可避免的修正。</blockquote> We need to increase the pressure on our elected officials to cut the pork and reopen our economies. Americans want to get back to work. So-called stimulus funding is not getting into the hands of those who need it most. Ultimately, it’s the real economy, not financial markets, that drive growth and prosperity. That requires local businesses open, workers re-engaged, and productive capital investments made.<blockquote>我们需要加大对我们民选官员的压力，让他们削减猪肉，重新开放我们的经济。美国人想回去工作。所谓的刺激资金并没有落入最需要的人手中。归根结底，推动增长和繁荣的是实体经济，而不是金融市场。这需要当地企业开放，工人重新参与，并进行生产性资本投资。</blockquote> This is not doom and gloom. Since the problem is not a banking-sector credit crisis, and the underlying economy remains healthy (albeit weakened), postcorrection recovery may come more quickly and easily than following the financial crisis. While persistent inflation can create a host of problems, it usually supports fuller employment, and both producers and consumers will adapt to a changing price environment. In the meantime, it may be best to stay liquid and wait this one out. As spring follows even the darkest winter, the opportune time will come again.<blockquote>这不是厄运和黑暗。由于问题不是银行业信贷危机，而且基础经济仍然健康（尽管有所减弱），调整后的复苏可能会比金融危机后更快、更容易。虽然持续的通货膨胀会造成一系列问题，但它通常会支持更充分就业，生产者和消费者都会适应不断变化的价格环境。与此同时，最好保持液体，等待这个出来。春天甚至在最黑暗的冬天之后，合适的时机还会再次到来。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/a-bubble-is-inflating-where-can-investors-hide-51612540675?mod=hp_COMMENTARY_2\">Barrons</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/a-bubble-is-inflating-where-can-investors-hide-51612540675?mod=hp_COMMENTARY_2","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1180268693","content_text":"Let’s settle one thing up front. We’re clearly witnessing a speculative bubble in the financial markets. This time is no different. This mania will end the same way they all do: in tears.\nI started banging the gong in mid-2020 about the imminent risk of financial crisis stemming from three potential causes: a severe market correction, a deteriorating U.S. fiscal position from unsustainable growth in deficits and debt, and the inflation that was likely to follow.\nAt that time, this viewpoint was greeted with a heavy dose of skepticism. Inflationary views were considered fringe. Respected economists were quick to point out the lack of demand for money relative to rapidly expanding supply, slack in the lockdown economy, and prevailing expectations for deflation based on recent history. Wall Street has little incentive to call a market bubble. Fees are made and bonuses paid when optimism, activity and volatility are high, not by predictions of impending doom. The euphorias of bubbles are like the best narcotics—stimulative and somewhat hypnotic. But the bigger the high, the worse the comedown.\nThese contrarian views of inflation and market correction have now become mainstream. The warning signs of market mania are evident inBitcoin(up 300% in a year), the deluge ofSPAC IPOs(always a signal of a top), exorbitantP/E ratios, and rapidly rising real estateprices. These, along with retail-driven short squeezes and mini-bubbles, are symptoms of underlying conditions set in motion long ago by a flood of liquidity unleashed by the Federal Reserve. This time is different, however, in one important way. When this bubble bursts, the Fed can no longer prop up the market by lowering interest rates. Real rates, which were about 4% before the global financial crisis, are now below zero almost everywhere.\nThe Biden administration is expected to unleash a blue wave of stimulus and other spending. This comes at a time when the revenue base is eroding, and the U.S. is no longer in a sound fiscal position. It is only a matter of time until government struggles to efficiently borrow against a gaping deficit and compounding debt. In 2020 alone, the U.S. government spent $3 trillion on pandemic relief while suffering a $2.1 trilliondecline in national incomefrom crippling lockdowns in our most economically important states, many of which continue today. By the end of fiscal 2020, total U.S. governmentdebtwas $27 trillion, up 20% from 2019 and triple the amount prior to the financial crisis. The Fed has absorbed a lot of this increase. Bond investors are rightly nervous.\nIt is no surprise that the Fed has since adopted apro-inflation stance. An unspoken objective is to erode the topsoil from the mountain of U.S. debt at the expense of Americans. Inflation is a hidden tax that will eat away our purchasing power. Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff remind us inThis Time is Differentthat throughout history, “the main device for defaulting on government obligations was… debasing the content of coinage. Modern currency presses are just a technologically advanced and more efficient approach to achieving the same end.” They note, “government debt is… often the unifying problem across the wide range of financial crises.”\nPrices are now rising in inflation bellwethers such as industrial metals, energy, and food commodities. The dollar haslost85% of its purchasing power since 1970. While a majority of this can be attributed to high inflation in the 1970s, even the supposedly deflationary 21st century has witnessed the erosion of one-third of the value of the dollar since 2000.\nRising inflation expectations go a long way in explaining the vertiginous ascent of the equity markets in the face of a partially closed economy with muted growth. As lockdowns and travel restrictions ease, pent-up demand will pressure global supply chains and thus prices. We can expect to see a further acceleration of inflation as early as this spring as economies reopen.\nWhere can one thrive, or at least hide, in this environment? U.S. equity markets are vastly overvalued by any historic measure, but bonds and cash are both danger zones in inflation. While conventional wisdom says to stay invested, it may be a good time to take some chips off of the table. Resist “FOMO,” the fear of missing out. If one has to stay invested, avoid the temptation of high-flying tech and growth equities, which are the most overvalued, in favor of diversifying among recently abandoned dividend-paying value stocks and emerging markets. Inflation-sensitive commodity (food, metals, and energy) producers should perform going forward. Gold has a millennia-long history of serving as a store of value and inflationary hedge, but pays no dividends along the way.\nBitcoin similarly earns no yield. Cryptocurrencies have no intrinsic value, and, like fiat currencies, are worth whatever the market happens to believe. When the euphoria wears off, they may be hit hard. Besides, Bitcoin is a stacked game easily manipulated given the high concentration ofownershipby whales.\nWatch out for gearing in investments, whether in securities or real estate. If markets collapse, leverage will rapidly eat into the remaining value. Look for hidden exposure to risk (including inflation) in retirement accounts. Invest in hard assets not correlated to the markets. Stay liquid to exploit the inevitable correction.\nWe need to increase the pressure on our elected officials to cut the pork and reopen our economies. Americans want to get back to work. So-called stimulus funding is not getting into the hands of those who need it most. Ultimately, it’s the real economy, not financial markets, that drive growth and prosperity. That requires local businesses open, workers re-engaged, and productive capital investments made.\nThis is not doom and gloom. Since the problem is not a banking-sector credit crisis, and the underlying economy remains healthy (albeit weakened), postcorrection recovery may come more quickly and easily than following the financial crisis. While persistent inflation can create a host of problems, it usually supports fuller employment, and both producers and consumers will adapt to a changing price environment. In the meantime, it may be best to stay liquid and wait this one out. As spring follows even the darkest winter, the opportune time will come again.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3416,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":4,"subscribersOnly":false,"subscribersOnlyAccessible":false,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/389690519"}