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2021-02-08

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Where Can Investors Hide as a Bubble Inflates?<blockquote>随着泡沫的膨胀，投资者可以躲在哪里？</blockquote>

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{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"detailType":1,"isChannel":false,"data":{"magic":2,"id":389690519,"tweetId":"389690519","gmtCreate":1612759657531,"gmtModify":1703764676090,"author":{"id":3574943968736312,"idStr":"3574943968736312","authorId":3574943968736312,"authorIdStr":"3574943968736312","name":"Dendenislit","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8650796e48e17621c226e2bfd4ca39a4","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"fanSize":1,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body>Damn</body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body>Damn</body></html>","text":"Damn","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/389690519","repostId":1180268693,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1180268693","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1612755259,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1180268693?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-02-08 11:34","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Where Can Investors Hide as a Bubble Inflates?<blockquote>随着泡沫的膨胀，投资者可以躲在哪里？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1180268693","media":"Barrons","summary":"Let’s settle one thing up front. We’re clearly witnessing a speculative bubble in the financial mark","content":"Let’s settle one thing up front. We’re clearly witnessing a speculative bubble in the financial markets. This time is no different. This mania will end the same way they all do: in tears.<blockquote>让我们先解决一件事。我们显然正在目睹金融市场的投机泡沫。这次也不例外。这种狂热将以他们都做的方式结束：在眼泪中。</blockquote> I started banging the gong in mid-2020 about the imminent risk of financial crisis stemming from three potential causes: a severe market correction, a deteriorating U.S. fiscal position from unsustainable growth in deficits and debt, and the inflation that was likely to follow.<blockquote>我在2020年年中开始敲响金融危机迫在眉睫的风险，这些风险源于三个潜在原因：严重的市场调整、赤字和债务不可持续增长导致的美国财政状况恶化，以及可能随之而来的通货膨胀。</blockquote> At that time, this viewpoint was greeted with a heavy dose of skepticism. Inflationary views were considered fringe. Respected economists were quick to point out the lack of demand for money relative to rapidly expanding supply, slack in the lockdown economy, and prevailing expectations for deflation based on recent history. Wall Street has little incentive to call a market bubble. Fees are made and bonuses paid when optimism, activity and volatility are high, not by predictions of impending doom. The euphorias of bubbles are like the best narcotics—stimulative and somewhat hypnotic. But the bigger the high, the worse the comedown.<blockquote>当时，这一观点遭到了强烈的怀疑。通货膨胀观点被认为是边缘观点。受人尊敬的经济学家很快指出，相对于快速扩张的供应，货币需求不足，封锁经济疲软，以及基于近期历史的通货紧缩预期。华尔街几乎没有动力去看涨期权市场泡沫。当乐观情绪、活动和波动性很高时，就会收取费用和支付奖金，而不是通过对即将到来的厄运的预测。泡沫带来的快感就像最好的麻醉剂——既刺激又有点催眠。但高点越大，衰退就越严重。</blockquote> These contrarian views of inflation and market correction have now become mainstream. The warning signs of market mania are evident inBitcoin(up 300% in a year), the deluge ofSPAC IPOs(always a signal of a top), exorbitantP/E ratios, and rapidly rising real estateprices. These, along with retail-driven short squeezes and mini-bubbles, are symptoms of underlying conditions set in motion long ago by a flood of liquidity unleashed by the Federal Reserve. This time is different, however, in one important way. When this bubble bursts, the Fed can no longer prop up the market by lowering interest rates. Real rates, which were about 4% before the global financial crisis, are now below zero almost everywhere.<blockquote>这些对通胀和市场回调的逆向观点现已成为主流。市场狂热的警告信号在比特币（一年内上涨300%）、SPAC IPO的泛滥（始终是见顶的信号）、过高的市盈率以及快速上涨的房地产价格中显而易见。这些，以及散户驱动的空头挤压和迷你泡沫，都是美联储很久以前释放的大量流动性引发的潜在状况的症状。然而，这一次在一个重要方面有所不同。当这个泡沫破裂时，美联储就无法再通过降低利率来支撑市场。全球金融危机前的实际利率约为4%，现在几乎所有地方都低于零。</blockquote> The Biden administration is expected to unleash a blue wave of stimulus and other spending. This comes at a time when the revenue base is eroding, and the U.S. is no longer in a sound fiscal position. It is only a matter of time until government struggles to efficiently borrow against a gaping deficit and compounding debt. In 2020 alone, the U.S. government spent $3 trillion on pandemic relief while suffering a $2.1 trilliondecline in national incomefrom crippling lockdowns in our most economically important states, many of which continue today. By the end of fiscal 2020, total U.S. governmentdebtwas $27 trillion, up 20% from 2019 and triple the amount prior to the financial crisis. The Fed has absorbed a lot of this increase. Bond investors are rightly nervous.<blockquote>预计拜登政府将推出蓝色刺激和其他支出浪潮。这发生在收入基础正在侵蚀、美国财政状况不再良好的时候。政府难以有效地举债应对不断扩大的赤字和不断增加的债务只是时间问题。仅在2020年，美国政府就在疫情救助上花费了3万亿美元，同时由于我们最重要的经济州的严重封锁，国民收入下降了2.1万亿美元，其中许多州至今仍在继续。截至2020财年末，美国政府债务总额为27万亿美元，比2019年增长20%，是金融危机前的三倍。美联储已经吸收了很多这种增长。债券投资者的紧张是理所当然的。</blockquote> It is no surprise that the Fed has since adopted apro-inflation stance. An unspoken objective is to erode the topsoil from the mountain of U.S. debt at the expense of Americans. Inflation is a hidden tax that will eat away our purchasing power. Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff remind us inThis Time is Differentthat throughout history, “the main device for defaulting on government obligations was… debasing the content of coinage. Modern currency presses are just a technologically advanced and more efficient approach to achieving the same end.” They note, “government debt is… often the unifying problem across the wide range of financial crises.”<blockquote>毫不奇怪，美联储此后采取了支持通胀的立场。一个不言而喻的目标是以美国人为代价侵蚀美国债务堆积如山的表土。通货膨胀是一种隐性税收，会侵蚀我们的购买力。卡门·莱因哈特和肯尼斯·罗格夫提醒我们这次不一样纵观历史，“政府债务违约的主要手段是……降低硬币的含量。现代货币印刷机只是实现同样目的的一种技术先进、效率更高的方法。”他们指出，“政府债务……往往是各种金融危机中的统一问题。”</blockquote> Prices are now rising in inflation bellwethers such as industrial metals, energy, and food commodities. The dollar haslost85% of its purchasing power since 1970. While a majority of this can be attributed to high inflation in the 1970s, even the supposedly deflationary 21st century has witnessed the erosion of one-third of the value of the dollar since 2000.<blockquote>工业金属、能源和食品等通胀风向标的价格目前正在上涨。自1970年以来，美元已经失去了85%的购买力。虽然这在很大程度上可以归因于20世纪70年代的高通胀，但即使是所谓的通货紧缩的21世纪，自2000年以来，美元价值也下跌了三分之一。</blockquote> Rising inflation expectations go a long way in explaining the vertiginous ascent of the equity markets in the face of a partially closed economy with muted growth. As lockdowns and travel restrictions ease, pent-up demand will pressure global supply chains and thus prices. We can expect to see a further acceleration of inflation as early as this spring as economies reopen.<blockquote>在经济部分封闭、增长乏力的情况下，通胀预期上升在很大程度上解释了股市为何会出现令人眩晕的上涨。随着封锁和旅行限制的放松，被压抑的需求将给全球供应链带来压力，从而给价格带来压力。随着经济重新开放，我们预计最早在今年春天就会看到通胀进一步加速。</blockquote> Where can one thrive, or at least hide, in this environment? U.S. equity markets are vastly overvalued by any historic measure, but bonds and cash are both danger zones in inflation. While conventional wisdom says to stay invested, it may be a good time to take some chips off of the table. Resist “FOMO,” the fear of missing out. If one has to stay invested, avoid the temptation of high-flying tech and growth equities, which are the most overvalued, in favor of diversifying among recently abandoned dividend-paying value stocks and emerging markets. Inflation-sensitive commodity (food, metals, and energy) producers should perform going forward. Gold has a millennia-long history of serving as a store of value and inflationary hedge, but pays no dividends along the way.<blockquote>在这种环境下，一个人能在哪里茁壮成长，或者至少能躲藏起来？以任何历史标准衡量，美国股市都被严重高估，但债券和现金都是通胀的危险区。虽然传统观点认为要保持投资，但现在可能是拿出一些筹码的好时机。抵制“FOMO”，害怕错过。如果必须继续投资，请避免估值最高估的高科技股和成长型股票的诱惑，转而在最近被放弃的派息价值股和新兴市场进行多元化投资。对通胀敏感的大宗商品（食品、金属和能源）生产商未来应该会表现出色。黄金作为价值储存和通胀对冲有着数千年的历史，但在此过程中没有支付股息。</blockquote> Bitcoin similarly earns no yield. Cryptocurrencies have no intrinsic value, and, like fiat currencies, are worth whatever the market happens to believe. When the euphoria wears off, they may be hit hard. Besides, Bitcoin is a stacked game easily manipulated given the high concentration ofownershipby whales.<blockquote>比特币同样没有收益。加密货币没有内在价值，就像法定货币一样，无论市场相信什么，它都有价值。当兴奋消退时，他们可能会受到重创。此外，鉴于鲸鱼的所有权高度集中，比特币是一个很容易被操纵的堆叠游戏。</blockquote> Watch out for gearing in investments, whether in securities or real estate. If markets collapse, leverage will rapidly eat into the remaining value. Look for hidden exposure to risk (including inflation) in retirement accounts. Invest in hard assets not correlated to the markets. Stay liquid to exploit the inevitable correction.<blockquote>无论是证券还是房地产，都要注意投资杠杆。如果市场崩溃，杠杆将迅速侵蚀剩余价值。寻找退休账户中隐藏的风险（包括通货膨胀）。投资与市场无关的硬资产。保持流动性以利用不可避免的修正。</blockquote> We need to increase the pressure on our elected officials to cut the pork and reopen our economies. Americans want to get back to work. So-called stimulus funding is not getting into the hands of those who need it most. Ultimately, it’s the real economy, not financial markets, that drive growth and prosperity. That requires local businesses open, workers re-engaged, and productive capital investments made.<blockquote>我们需要加大对民选官员的压力，让他们削减猪肉，重新开放我们的经济。美国人想重返工作岗位。所谓的刺激资金没有到达最需要的人手中。最终，推动增长和繁荣的是实体经济，而不是金融市场。这需要当地企业开放，工人重新参与，并进行生产性资本投资。</blockquote> This is not doom and gloom. Since the problem is not a banking-sector credit crisis, and the underlying economy remains healthy (albeit weakened), postcorrection recovery may come more quickly and easily than following the financial crisis. While persistent inflation can create a host of problems, it usually supports fuller employment, and both producers and consumers will adapt to a changing price environment. In the meantime, it may be best to stay liquid and wait this one out. As spring follows even the darkest winter, the opportune time will come again.<blockquote>这不是厄运和黑暗。由于问题不是银行业的信贷危机，而且基础经济仍然健康（尽管有所减弱），调整后的复苏可能比金融危机后更快、更容易。虽然持续的通货膨胀会造成一系列问题，但它通常会支持更充分的就业，生产者和消费者都会适应不断变化的价格环境。与此同时，最好保持流动性，等待这一次结束。即使是最黑暗的冬天也会迎来春天，合适的时机也会再次到来。</blockquote>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Where Can Investors Hide as a Bubble Inflates?<blockquote>随着泡沫的膨胀，投资者可以躲在哪里？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhere Can Investors Hide as a Bubble Inflates?<blockquote>随着泡沫的膨胀，投资者可以躲在哪里？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nBarrons2021-02-08 11:34\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nLet’s settle one thing up front. We’re clearly witnessing a speculative bubble in the financial markets. This time is no different. This mania will end the same way they all do: in tears.<blockquote>让我们先解决一件事。我们显然正在目睹金融市场的投机泡沫。这次也不例外。这种狂热将以他们都做的方式结束：在眼泪中。</blockquote> I started banging the gong in mid-2020 about the imminent risk of financial crisis stemming from three potential causes: a severe market correction, a deteriorating U.S. fiscal position from unsustainable growth in deficits and debt, and the inflation that was likely to follow.<blockquote>我在2020年年中开始敲响金融危机迫在眉睫的风险，这些风险源于三个潜在原因：严重的市场调整、赤字和债务不可持续增长导致的美国财政状况恶化，以及可能随之而来的通货膨胀。</blockquote> At that time, this viewpoint was greeted with a heavy dose of skepticism. Inflationary views were considered fringe. Respected economists were quick to point out the lack of demand for money relative to rapidly expanding supply, slack in the lockdown economy, and prevailing expectations for deflation based on recent history. Wall Street has little incentive to call a market bubble. Fees are made and bonuses paid when optimism, activity and volatility are high, not by predictions of impending doom. The euphorias of bubbles are like the best narcotics—stimulative and somewhat hypnotic. But the bigger the high, the worse the comedown.<blockquote>当时，这一观点遭到了强烈的怀疑。通货膨胀观点被认为是边缘观点。受人尊敬的经济学家很快指出，相对于快速扩张的供应，货币需求不足，封锁经济疲软，以及基于近期历史的通货紧缩预期。华尔街几乎没有动力去看涨期权市场泡沫。当乐观情绪、活动和波动性很高时，就会收取费用和支付奖金，而不是通过对即将到来的厄运的预测。泡沫带来的快感就像最好的麻醉剂——既刺激又有点催眠。但高点越大，衰退就越严重。</blockquote> These contrarian views of inflation and market correction have now become mainstream. The warning signs of market mania are evident inBitcoin(up 300% in a year), the deluge ofSPAC IPOs(always a signal of a top), exorbitantP/E ratios, and rapidly rising real estateprices. These, along with retail-driven short squeezes and mini-bubbles, are symptoms of underlying conditions set in motion long ago by a flood of liquidity unleashed by the Federal Reserve. This time is different, however, in one important way. When this bubble bursts, the Fed can no longer prop up the market by lowering interest rates. Real rates, which were about 4% before the global financial crisis, are now below zero almost everywhere.<blockquote>这些对通胀和市场回调的逆向观点现已成为主流。市场狂热的警告信号在比特币（一年内上涨300%）、SPAC IPO的泛滥（始终是见顶的信号）、过高的市盈率以及快速上涨的房地产价格中显而易见。这些，以及散户驱动的空头挤压和迷你泡沫，都是美联储很久以前释放的大量流动性引发的潜在状况的症状。然而，这一次在一个重要方面有所不同。当这个泡沫破裂时，美联储就无法再通过降低利率来支撑市场。全球金融危机前的实际利率约为4%，现在几乎所有地方都低于零。</blockquote> The Biden administration is expected to unleash a blue wave of stimulus and other spending. This comes at a time when the revenue base is eroding, and the U.S. is no longer in a sound fiscal position. It is only a matter of time until government struggles to efficiently borrow against a gaping deficit and compounding debt. In 2020 alone, the U.S. government spent $3 trillion on pandemic relief while suffering a $2.1 trilliondecline in national incomefrom crippling lockdowns in our most economically important states, many of which continue today. By the end of fiscal 2020, total U.S. governmentdebtwas $27 trillion, up 20% from 2019 and triple the amount prior to the financial crisis. The Fed has absorbed a lot of this increase. Bond investors are rightly nervous.<blockquote>预计拜登政府将推出蓝色刺激和其他支出浪潮。这发生在收入基础正在侵蚀、美国财政状况不再良好的时候。政府难以有效地举债应对不断扩大的赤字和不断增加的债务只是时间问题。仅在2020年，美国政府就在疫情救助上花费了3万亿美元，同时由于我们最重要的经济州的严重封锁，国民收入下降了2.1万亿美元，其中许多州至今仍在继续。截至2020财年末，美国政府债务总额为27万亿美元，比2019年增长20%，是金融危机前的三倍。美联储已经吸收了很多这种增长。债券投资者的紧张是理所当然的。</blockquote> It is no surprise that the Fed has since adopted apro-inflation stance. An unspoken objective is to erode the topsoil from the mountain of U.S. debt at the expense of Americans. Inflation is a hidden tax that will eat away our purchasing power. Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff remind us inThis Time is Differentthat throughout history, “the main device for defaulting on government obligations was… debasing the content of coinage. Modern currency presses are just a technologically advanced and more efficient approach to achieving the same end.” They note, “government debt is… often the unifying problem across the wide range of financial crises.”<blockquote>毫不奇怪，美联储此后采取了支持通胀的立场。一个不言而喻的目标是以美国人为代价侵蚀美国债务堆积如山的表土。通货膨胀是一种隐性税收，会侵蚀我们的购买力。卡门·莱因哈特和肯尼斯·罗格夫提醒我们这次不一样纵观历史，“政府债务违约的主要手段是……降低硬币的含量。现代货币印刷机只是实现同样目的的一种技术先进、效率更高的方法。”他们指出，“政府债务……往往是各种金融危机中的统一问题。”</blockquote> Prices are now rising in inflation bellwethers such as industrial metals, energy, and food commodities. The dollar haslost85% of its purchasing power since 1970. While a majority of this can be attributed to high inflation in the 1970s, even the supposedly deflationary 21st century has witnessed the erosion of one-third of the value of the dollar since 2000.<blockquote>工业金属、能源和食品等通胀风向标的价格目前正在上涨。自1970年以来，美元已经失去了85%的购买力。虽然这在很大程度上可以归因于20世纪70年代的高通胀，但即使是所谓的通货紧缩的21世纪，自2000年以来，美元价值也下跌了三分之一。</blockquote> Rising inflation expectations go a long way in explaining the vertiginous ascent of the equity markets in the face of a partially closed economy with muted growth. As lockdowns and travel restrictions ease, pent-up demand will pressure global supply chains and thus prices. We can expect to see a further acceleration of inflation as early as this spring as economies reopen.<blockquote>在经济部分封闭、增长乏力的情况下，通胀预期上升在很大程度上解释了股市为何会出现令人眩晕的上涨。随着封锁和旅行限制的放松，被压抑的需求将给全球供应链带来压力，从而给价格带来压力。随着经济重新开放，我们预计最早在今年春天就会看到通胀进一步加速。</blockquote> Where can one thrive, or at least hide, in this environment? U.S. equity markets are vastly overvalued by any historic measure, but bonds and cash are both danger zones in inflation. While conventional wisdom says to stay invested, it may be a good time to take some chips off of the table. Resist “FOMO,” the fear of missing out. If one has to stay invested, avoid the temptation of high-flying tech and growth equities, which are the most overvalued, in favor of diversifying among recently abandoned dividend-paying value stocks and emerging markets. Inflation-sensitive commodity (food, metals, and energy) producers should perform going forward. Gold has a millennia-long history of serving as a store of value and inflationary hedge, but pays no dividends along the way.<blockquote>在这种环境下，一个人能在哪里茁壮成长，或者至少能躲藏起来？以任何历史标准衡量，美国股市都被严重高估，但债券和现金都是通胀的危险区。虽然传统观点认为要保持投资，但现在可能是拿出一些筹码的好时机。抵制“FOMO”，害怕错过。如果必须继续投资，请避免估值最高估的高科技股和成长型股票的诱惑，转而在最近被放弃的派息价值股和新兴市场进行多元化投资。对通胀敏感的大宗商品（食品、金属和能源）生产商未来应该会表现出色。黄金作为价值储存和通胀对冲有着数千年的历史，但在此过程中没有支付股息。</blockquote> Bitcoin similarly earns no yield. Cryptocurrencies have no intrinsic value, and, like fiat currencies, are worth whatever the market happens to believe. When the euphoria wears off, they may be hit hard. Besides, Bitcoin is a stacked game easily manipulated given the high concentration ofownershipby whales.<blockquote>比特币同样没有收益。加密货币没有内在价值，就像法定货币一样，无论市场相信什么，它都有价值。当兴奋消退时，他们可能会受到重创。此外，鉴于鲸鱼的所有权高度集中，比特币是一个很容易被操纵的堆叠游戏。</blockquote> Watch out for gearing in investments, whether in securities or real estate. If markets collapse, leverage will rapidly eat into the remaining value. Look for hidden exposure to risk (including inflation) in retirement accounts. Invest in hard assets not correlated to the markets. Stay liquid to exploit the inevitable correction.<blockquote>无论是证券还是房地产，都要注意投资杠杆。如果市场崩溃，杠杆将迅速侵蚀剩余价值。寻找退休账户中隐藏的风险（包括通货膨胀）。投资与市场无关的硬资产。保持流动性以利用不可避免的修正。</blockquote> We need to increase the pressure on our elected officials to cut the pork and reopen our economies. Americans want to get back to work. So-called stimulus funding is not getting into the hands of those who need it most. Ultimately, it’s the real economy, not financial markets, that drive growth and prosperity. That requires local businesses open, workers re-engaged, and productive capital investments made.<blockquote>我们需要加大对民选官员的压力，让他们削减猪肉，重新开放我们的经济。美国人想重返工作岗位。所谓的刺激资金没有到达最需要的人手中。最终，推动增长和繁荣的是实体经济，而不是金融市场。这需要当地企业开放，工人重新参与，并进行生产性资本投资。</blockquote> This is not doom and gloom. Since the problem is not a banking-sector credit crisis, and the underlying economy remains healthy (albeit weakened), postcorrection recovery may come more quickly and easily than following the financial crisis. While persistent inflation can create a host of problems, it usually supports fuller employment, and both producers and consumers will adapt to a changing price environment. In the meantime, it may be best to stay liquid and wait this one out. As spring follows even the darkest winter, the opportune time will come again.<blockquote>这不是厄运和黑暗。由于问题不是银行业的信贷危机，而且基础经济仍然健康（尽管有所减弱），调整后的复苏可能比金融危机后更快、更容易。虽然持续的通货膨胀会造成一系列问题，但它通常会支持更充分的就业，生产者和消费者都会适应不断变化的价格环境。与此同时，最好保持流动性，等待这一次结束。即使是最黑暗的冬天也会迎来春天，合适的时机也会再次到来。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/a-bubble-is-inflating-where-can-investors-hide-51612540675?mod=hp_COMMENTARY_2\">Barrons</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/a-bubble-is-inflating-where-can-investors-hide-51612540675?mod=hp_COMMENTARY_2","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1180268693","content_text":"Let’s settle one thing up front. We’re clearly witnessing a speculative bubble in the financial markets. This time is no different. This mania will end the same way they all do: in tears.\nI started banging the gong in mid-2020 about the imminent risk of financial crisis stemming from three potential causes: a severe market correction, a deteriorating U.S. fiscal position from unsustainable growth in deficits and debt, and the inflation that was likely to follow.\nAt that time, this viewpoint was greeted with a heavy dose of skepticism. Inflationary views were considered fringe. Respected economists were quick to point out the lack of demand for money relative to rapidly expanding supply, slack in the lockdown economy, and prevailing expectations for deflation based on recent history. Wall Street has little incentive to call a market bubble. Fees are made and bonuses paid when optimism, activity and volatility are high, not by predictions of impending doom. The euphorias of bubbles are like the best narcotics—stimulative and somewhat hypnotic. But the bigger the high, the worse the comedown.\nThese contrarian views of inflation and market correction have now become mainstream. The warning signs of market mania are evident inBitcoin(up 300% in a year), the deluge ofSPAC IPOs(always a signal of a top), exorbitantP/E ratios, and rapidly rising real estateprices. These, along with retail-driven short squeezes and mini-bubbles, are symptoms of underlying conditions set in motion long ago by a flood of liquidity unleashed by the Federal Reserve. This time is different, however, in one important way. When this bubble bursts, the Fed can no longer prop up the market by lowering interest rates. Real rates, which were about 4% before the global financial crisis, are now below zero almost everywhere.\nThe Biden administration is expected to unleash a blue wave of stimulus and other spending. This comes at a time when the revenue base is eroding, and the U.S. is no longer in a sound fiscal position. It is only a matter of time until government struggles to efficiently borrow against a gaping deficit and compounding debt. In 2020 alone, the U.S. government spent $3 trillion on pandemic relief while suffering a $2.1 trilliondecline in national incomefrom crippling lockdowns in our most economically important states, many of which continue today. By the end of fiscal 2020, total U.S. governmentdebtwas $27 trillion, up 20% from 2019 and triple the amount prior to the financial crisis. The Fed has absorbed a lot of this increase. Bond investors are rightly nervous.\nIt is no surprise that the Fed has since adopted apro-inflation stance. An unspoken objective is to erode the topsoil from the mountain of U.S. debt at the expense of Americans. Inflation is a hidden tax that will eat away our purchasing power. Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff remind us inThis Time is Differentthat throughout history, “the main device for defaulting on government obligations was… debasing the content of coinage. Modern currency presses are just a technologically advanced and more efficient approach to achieving the same end.” They note, “government debt is… often the unifying problem across the wide range of financial crises.”\nPrices are now rising in inflation bellwethers such as industrial metals, energy, and food commodities. The dollar haslost85% of its purchasing power since 1970. While a majority of this can be attributed to high inflation in the 1970s, even the supposedly deflationary 21st century has witnessed the erosion of one-third of the value of the dollar since 2000.\nRising inflation expectations go a long way in explaining the vertiginous ascent of the equity markets in the face of a partially closed economy with muted growth. As lockdowns and travel restrictions ease, pent-up demand will pressure global supply chains and thus prices. We can expect to see a further acceleration of inflation as early as this spring as economies reopen.\nWhere can one thrive, or at least hide, in this environment? U.S. equity markets are vastly overvalued by any historic measure, but bonds and cash are both danger zones in inflation. While conventional wisdom says to stay invested, it may be a good time to take some chips off of the table. Resist “FOMO,” the fear of missing out. If one has to stay invested, avoid the temptation of high-flying tech and growth equities, which are the most overvalued, in favor of diversifying among recently abandoned dividend-paying value stocks and emerging markets. Inflation-sensitive commodity (food, metals, and energy) producers should perform going forward. Gold has a millennia-long history of serving as a store of value and inflationary hedge, but pays no dividends along the way.\nBitcoin similarly earns no yield. Cryptocurrencies have no intrinsic value, and, like fiat currencies, are worth whatever the market happens to believe. When the euphoria wears off, they may be hit hard. Besides, Bitcoin is a stacked game easily manipulated given the high concentration ofownershipby whales.\nWatch out for gearing in investments, whether in securities or real estate. If markets collapse, leverage will rapidly eat into the remaining value. Look for hidden exposure to risk (including inflation) in retirement accounts. Invest in hard assets not correlated to the markets. Stay liquid to exploit the inevitable correction.\nWe need to increase the pressure on our elected officials to cut the pork and reopen our economies. Americans want to get back to work. So-called stimulus funding is not getting into the hands of those who need it most. Ultimately, it’s the real economy, not financial markets, that drive growth and prosperity. That requires local businesses open, workers re-engaged, and productive capital investments made.\nThis is not doom and gloom. Since the problem is not a banking-sector credit crisis, and the underlying economy remains healthy (albeit weakened), postcorrection recovery may come more quickly and easily than following the financial crisis. While persistent inflation can create a host of problems, it usually supports fuller employment, and both producers and consumers will adapt to a changing price environment. In the meantime, it may be best to stay liquid and wait this one out. As spring follows even the darkest winter, the opportune time will come again.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2606,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":4,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/389690519"}