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Dendenislit

Dendenislit

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2021-05-26

$ARK Innovation ETF(ARKK)$Thanks Aunty Cathy

2021-02-23

Diamond hands

Are we in a bubble? How founder of world’s largest hedge fund says 2021 stock market stacks up<blockquote>我们是在泡沫中吗？全球最大对冲基金创始人如何评价2021年股市走势</blockquote>

2021-02-12

Moon!

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2021-02-10

Please like

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2021-02-09

Please like!

Here’s What the GameStop Affair Has Taught Us<blockquote>以下是游戏驿站事件教给我们的</blockquote>

2021-02-08

Damn

Where Can Investors Hide as a Bubble Inflates?<blockquote>随着泡沫的膨胀，投资者可以躲在哪里？</blockquote>

2021-02-08

Okay!

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2021-02-07

The only Sti I love is the Subaru ones

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2021-02-07

Stop the $rope

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2021-02-06

Rip

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2021-02-05

Cny canceled lah, which means, I won’t have to spend so much on new clothes for my wife, sorry retail sector![龇牙]

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2021-02-05

Maybe this isn’t a meme stock after all

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2021-02-05

What does the community think about pot stocks ?

2021-02-05

Nice

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hands","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/363060322","repostId":"1116870824","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1116870824","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1614051228,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1116870824?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-02-23 11:33","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Are we in a bubble? How founder of world’s largest hedge fund says 2021 stock market stacks up<blockquote>我们是在泡沫中吗？全球最大对冲基金创始人如何评价2021年股市走势</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1116870824","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"Ray Dalio’s bubble indicator says the 2021 market ranks in the 77th percentile in his ‘bubble indica","content":"<p>Ray Dalio’s bubble indicator says the 2021 market ranks in the 77th percentile in his ‘bubble indicator’</p><p><blockquote>Ray Dalio的泡沫指标表示，2021年市场在他的“泡沫指标”中排名第77百分位</blockquote></p><p> The stock market is feeling awfully frothy to some investors lately, a fact that has helped to weigh on the market’s bullish sentiment in the past week or so, but a report by Ray Dalio implies that equities aren’t as bubblicious as one might think.</p><p><blockquote>最近，一些投资者感觉股市泡沫严重，这一事实在过去一周左右的时间里打压了市场的看涨情绪，但雷·达里奥(Ray Dalio)的一份报告暗示，股市并不像人们想象的那么泡沫。</blockquote></p><p> “In brief,&nbsp;the aggregate bubble gauge is around the 77th percentile today for the US stock market overall.&nbsp;In the bubble of 2000 and the bubble of 1929 this aggregate gauge had a 100th percentile read,” wrote Dalio in&nbsp;a blog post published on Monday on LinkedIn.</p><p><blockquote>达里奥在周一发表的一篇博客文章中写道：“简而言之，今天美国股市整体的总体泡沫指标约为第77百分位。在2000年的泡沫和1929年的泡沫中，这一总体指标的读数为第100百分位。”在LinkedIn上。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dab41b9c50d3b241dd38ad744ba96b22\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"597\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> RAY DALIO</p><p><blockquote>雷·达里奥</blockquote></p><p> Dalio is the founder of Bridgewater Associates, the world’s largest hedge-fund firm, which has made him a billionaire and comments consistent attention grabbers.</p><p><blockquote>达里奥是全球最大的对冲基金公司桥水基金的创始人，这使他成为亿万富翁，他的评论一直吸引着人们的注意力。</blockquote></p><p> The hedge-fund investor says that he created an indicator to help him determine whether the stock market is in a bubble, which he defines as an unsustainably high price, by using six measures:</p><p><blockquote>这位对冲基金投资者表示，他创建了一个指标，通过使用六项指标来帮助他确定股市是否处于泡沫中，他将泡沫定义为不可持续的高价：</blockquote></p><p> <ol>  <li>How high are prices relative to traditional measures?</li>  <li>Are prices discounting unsustainable conditions?</li>  <li>How many new buyers (i.e., those who weren’t previously in the market) have entered the market?</li>  <li>How broadly bullish is sentiment?</li>  <li>Are purchases being financed by high leverage?</li>  <li>Have buyers made exceptionally extended forward purchases (e.g., built inventory, contracted forward purchases, etc.) to speculate or protect themselves against future price gains?</li> </ol> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/45ffcb17a9670acba9a6816361da9fb0\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"301\"><span>VIA RAY DALIO</span></p><p><blockquote><ol><li>相对于传统措施，价格有多高？</li><li>价格是否低估了不可持续的条件？</li><li>有多少新买家（即那些以前不在市场上的人）进入了市场？</li><li>市场情绪有多乐观？</li><li>购买是否通过高杠杆融资？</li><li>买家是否进行了异常延长的远期购买（例如，建立库存、签订远期购买合同等。）来投机或保护自己免受未来价格上涨的影响？</li></ol><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>通过雷·达里奥</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Based on those factors, and using data that go back to the 1910s, Dalio’s indicator suggests that markets are frothy but not necessarily in a bubble by his definition.</p><p><blockquote>基于这些因素，并使用20世纪10年代的数据，达里奥的指标表明市场存在泡沫，但根据他的定义，不一定处于泡沫之中。</blockquote></p><p> Dalio’s note comes as stock-market investors are wrestling with rising bonds yields, with the 10-year Treasury note&nbsp;flirts with its highest level in about a year as investors brace for rising inflation and recovery in the economy that has been swooning from the COVID-19 pandemic.</p><p><blockquote>达里奥发表这份报告之际，股市投资者正在努力应对债券收益率上升的问题，10年期美国国债触及约一年来的最高水平，投资者正在为通胀上升和因COVID-19疫情而陷入困境的经济复苏做好准备。</blockquote></p><p> Fiscal spending and market-favorable policies have been factors that investors have argued have kept the Dow Jones Industrial Average,the S&amp;P 500 index&nbsp;and the Nasdaq Composite Index&nbsp;at or near record highs, despite valuations since as absurdly rich by some measures.</p><p><blockquote>投资者认为，财政支出和有利于市场的政策是道琼斯工业平均指数、标普500指数和纳斯达克综合指数保持在或接近历史高位的因素，尽管从某些指标来看，此后的估值高得离谱。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"market_watch","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Are we in a bubble? How founder of world’s largest hedge fund says 2021 stock market stacks up<blockquote>我们是在泡沫中吗？全球最大对冲基金创始人如何评价2021年股市走势</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAre we in a bubble? How founder of world’s largest hedge fund says 2021 stock market stacks up<blockquote>我们是在泡沫中吗？全球最大对冲基金创始人如何评价2021年股市走势</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">MarketWatch</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-02-23 11:33</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Ray Dalio’s bubble indicator says the 2021 market ranks in the 77th percentile in his ‘bubble indicator’</p><p><blockquote>Ray Dalio的泡沫指标表示，2021年市场在他的“泡沫指标”中排名第77百分位</blockquote></p><p> The stock market is feeling awfully frothy to some investors lately, a fact that has helped to weigh on the market’s bullish sentiment in the past week or so, but a report by Ray Dalio implies that equities aren’t as bubblicious as one might think.</p><p><blockquote>最近，一些投资者感觉股市泡沫严重，这一事实在过去一周左右的时间里打压了市场的看涨情绪，但雷·达里奥(Ray Dalio)的一份报告暗示，股市并不像人们想象的那么泡沫。</blockquote></p><p> “In brief,&nbsp;the aggregate bubble gauge is around the 77th percentile today for the US stock market overall.&nbsp;In the bubble of 2000 and the bubble of 1929 this aggregate gauge had a 100th percentile read,” wrote Dalio in&nbsp;a blog post published on Monday on LinkedIn.</p><p><blockquote>达里奥在周一发表的一篇博客文章中写道：“简而言之，今天美国股市整体的总体泡沫指标约为第77百分位。在2000年的泡沫和1929年的泡沫中，这一总体指标的读数为第100百分位。”在LinkedIn上。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dab41b9c50d3b241dd38ad744ba96b22\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"597\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> RAY DALIO</p><p><blockquote>雷·达里奥</blockquote></p><p> Dalio is the founder of Bridgewater Associates, the world’s largest hedge-fund firm, which has made him a billionaire and comments consistent attention grabbers.</p><p><blockquote>达里奥是全球最大的对冲基金公司桥水基金的创始人，这使他成为亿万富翁，他的评论一直吸引着人们的注意力。</blockquote></p><p> The hedge-fund investor says that he created an indicator to help him determine whether the stock market is in a bubble, which he defines as an unsustainably high price, by using six measures:</p><p><blockquote>这位对冲基金投资者表示，他创建了一个指标，通过使用六项指标来帮助他确定股市是否处于泡沫中，他将泡沫定义为不可持续的高价：</blockquote></p><p> <ol>  <li>How high are prices relative to traditional measures?</li>  <li>Are prices discounting unsustainable conditions?</li>  <li>How many new buyers (i.e., those who weren’t previously in the market) have entered the market?</li>  <li>How broadly bullish is sentiment?</li>  <li>Are purchases being financed by high leverage?</li>  <li>Have buyers made exceptionally extended forward purchases (e.g., built inventory, contracted forward purchases, etc.) to speculate or protect themselves against future price gains?</li> </ol> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/45ffcb17a9670acba9a6816361da9fb0\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"301\"><span>VIA RAY DALIO</span></p><p><blockquote><ol><li>相对于传统措施，价格有多高？</li><li>价格是否低估了不可持续的条件？</li><li>有多少新买家（即那些以前不在市场上的人）进入了市场？</li><li>市场情绪有多乐观？</li><li>购买是否通过高杠杆融资？</li><li>买家是否进行了异常延长的远期购买（例如，建立库存、签订远期购买合同等。）来投机或保护自己免受未来价格上涨的影响？</li></ol><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>通过雷·达里奥</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Based on those factors, and using data that go back to the 1910s, Dalio’s indicator suggests that markets are frothy but not necessarily in a bubble by his definition.</p><p><blockquote>基于这些因素，并使用20世纪10年代的数据，达里奥的指标表明市场存在泡沫，但根据他的定义，不一定处于泡沫之中。</blockquote></p><p> Dalio’s note comes as stock-market investors are wrestling with rising bonds yields, with the 10-year Treasury note&nbsp;flirts with its highest level in about a year as investors brace for rising inflation and recovery in the economy that has been swooning from the COVID-19 pandemic.</p><p><blockquote>达里奥发表这份报告之际，股市投资者正在努力应对债券收益率上升的问题，10年期美国国债触及约一年来的最高水平，投资者正在为通胀上升和因COVID-19疫情而陷入困境的经济复苏做好准备。</blockquote></p><p> Fiscal spending and market-favorable policies have been factors that investors have argued have kept the Dow Jones Industrial Average,the S&amp;P 500 index&nbsp;and the Nasdaq Composite Index&nbsp;at or near record highs, despite valuations since as absurdly rich by some measures.</p><p><blockquote>投资者认为，财政支出和有利于市场的政策是道琼斯工业平均指数、标普500指数和纳斯达克综合指数保持在或接近历史高位的因素，尽管从某些指标来看，此后的估值高得离谱。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/are-we-in-a-bubble-how-founder-of-worlds-largest-hedge-fund-says-2021-stock-market-stacks-up-11614010302?mod=home-page\">MarketWatch</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/are-we-in-a-bubble-how-founder-of-worlds-largest-hedge-fund-says-2021-stock-market-stacks-up-11614010302?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/599a65733b8245fcf7868668ef9ad712","article_id":"1116870824","content_text":"Ray Dalio’s bubble indicator says the 2021 market ranks in the 77th percentile in his ‘bubble indicator’\nThe stock market is feeling awfully frothy to some investors lately, a fact that has helped to weigh on the market’s bullish sentiment in the past week or so, but a report by Ray Dalio implies that equities aren’t as bubblicious as one might think.\n“In brief, the aggregate bubble gauge is around the 77th percentile today for the US stock market overall. In the bubble of 2000 and the bubble of 1929 this aggregate gauge had a 100th percentile read,” wrote Dalio in a blog post published on Monday on LinkedIn.\n\nRAY DALIO\nDalio is the founder of Bridgewater Associates, the world’s largest hedge-fund firm, which has made him a billionaire and comments consistent attention grabbers.\nThe hedge-fund investor says that he created an indicator to help him determine whether the stock market is in a bubble, which he defines as an unsustainably high price, by using six measures:\n\nHow high are prices relative to traditional measures?\nAre prices discounting unsustainable conditions?\nHow many new buyers (i.e., those who weren’t previously in the market) have entered the market?\nHow broadly bullish is sentiment?\nAre purchases being financed by high leverage?\nHave buyers made exceptionally extended forward purchases (e.g., built inventory, contracted forward purchases, etc.) to speculate or protect themselves against future price gains?\n\nVIA RAY DALIO\nBased on those factors, and using data that go back to the 1910s, Dalio’s indicator suggests that markets are frothy but not necessarily in a bubble by his definition.\nDalio’s note comes as stock-market investors are wrestling with rising bonds yields, with the 10-year Treasury note flirts with its highest level in about a year as investors brace for rising inflation and recovery in the economy that has been swooning from the COVID-19 pandemic.\nFiscal spending and market-favorable policies have been factors that investors have argued have kept the Dow Jones Industrial Average,the S&P 500 index and the Nasdaq Composite Index at or near record highs, despite valuations since as absurdly rich by some measures.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1594,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":388745482,"gmtCreate":1613102639646,"gmtModify":1634554514076,"author":{"id":"3574943968736312","authorId":"3574943968736312","name":"Dendenislit","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8650796e48e17621c226e2bfd4ca39a4","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574943968736312","idStr":"3574943968736312"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Moon!&nbsp;","listText":"Moon!&nbsp;","text":"Moon!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/388745482","repostId":"2110549049","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2515,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":381615037,"gmtCreate":1612961607629,"gmtModify":1703767508998,"author":{"id":"3574943968736312","authorId":"3574943968736312","name":"Dendenislit","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8650796e48e17621c226e2bfd4ca39a4","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574943968736312","idStr":"3574943968736312"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Please like","listText":"Please like","text":"Please like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/381615037","repostId":"1186964240","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2921,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":383977346,"gmtCreate":1612834280585,"gmtModify":1703765620980,"author":{"id":"3574943968736312","authorId":"3574943968736312","name":"Dendenislit","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8650796e48e17621c226e2bfd4ca39a4","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574943968736312","idStr":"3574943968736312"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Please like!","listText":"Please like!","text":"Please like!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/383977346","repostId":"1195153829","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1195153829","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1612781502,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1195153829?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-02-08 18:51","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Here’s What the GameStop Affair Has Taught Us<blockquote>以下是游戏驿站事件教给我们的</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1195153829","media":"Barrons","summary":"This commentary was issued recently by money managers, research firms, and market newsletter writers","content":"<p><i>This commentary was issued recently by money managers, research firms, and market newsletter writers and has been edited by Barron’s.</i></p><p><blockquote><i>这篇评论最近由基金经理、研究公司和市场时事通讯作者发表，并由《巴伦周刊》编辑。</i></blockquote></p><p> What GameStop Taught Us</p><p><blockquote>游戏驿站教给我们的</blockquote></p><p> <i>The Weekly Speculator</i></p><p><blockquote><i>每周投机者</i></blockquote></p><p> <i>Marketfield Asset Management</i></p><p><blockquote><i>Marketfield资产管理</i></blockquote></p><p> marketfield.com</p><p><blockquote>marketfield.com</blockquote></p><p> Feb. 4: After all is said and done, one of the most lasting effects of theGameStop(ticker: GME) episode will be to educate many market participants about the key role and ultimate power held by the clearing institution, the Depository Trust Company. One of the stranger aspects of the affair has been the attempt to paint it as some form of moral crusade, or an opportunity for the “little guy” to get even with Wall Street. The truth is that some large investors lost a great deal of money, while others were well rewarded, just as some small investors will have reaped life-changing sums while others will have lost funds that may prove to be equally impactful. In this sense, the market is a meritocracy, which isn’t quite the same as saying that it is always fair in delivering outcomes.</p><p><blockquote>2月4日：总而言之，GameStop（股票代码：GME）事件最持久的影响之一将是让许多市场参与者了解清算机构存款信托公司所扮演的关键角色和最终权力。这件事更奇怪的一面是，有人试图将其描绘成某种形式的道德讨伐，或者是“小人物”报复华尔街的机会。事实是，一些大投资者损失了大量资金，而另一些投资者则获得了丰厚的回报，就像一些小投资者将获得改变生活的资金，而另一些投资者将损失可能同样具有影响力的资金一样。从这个意义上说，市场是一个精英统治，这并不等同于说它在提供结果方面总是公平的。</blockquote></p><p> What is also clear is that late January saw a very significant degrossing of levered hedge-fund investors, without causing a deep correction in the equity market. The S&amp;P 500 essentially respected support at the 50-day moving average, and didn’t need to move down to 3600, which we had set as a “worst case” target. The Nasdaq 100, Russell 2000, and MSCI Emerging Markets Index didn’t need to touch their corresponding trend support, and all three indexes managed to generate a positive return in January, unlike the S&amp;P 500, which registered a small loss. The subsequent bounce has been rapid and broad, as would be expected from a catalyst that was both technical and ephemeral in nature.</p><p><blockquote>同样清楚的是，1月下旬，杠杆对冲基金投资者的资金大幅减少，但并未导致股市大幅调整。标普500基本上尊重50日均线的支撑，不需要跌至我们设定的“最坏情况”目标3600点。纳斯达克100指数、Russell 2000指数和MSCI新兴市场指数不需要触及相应的趋势支撑，这三个指数在1月份都成功产生了正回报，不像标普500出现了小幅亏损。随后的反弹迅速而广泛，正如技术性和短暂性催化剂所预期的那样。</blockquote></p><p> That it is not a wholly positive or inconsequential affair. The long bull market is now showing signs of developing into a historic mania. This doesn’t mean that a market peak is imminent, but the normative process—whereby what is “appropriate” is ultimately influenced by extremes—means that the levels of risk being taken by the average investor are probably significantly higher than they were pre-Covid.</p><p><blockquote>这不是一件完全积极或无关紧要的事情。漫长的牛市现在有发展成历史性狂热的迹象。这并不意味着市场峰值即将到来，但规范过程——什么是“适当的”最终会受到极端情况的影响——意味着普通投资者承担的风险水平可能明显高于Covid之前。</blockquote></p><p> —Michael Shaoul, Timothy Brackett</p><p><blockquote>——迈克尔·绍尔、蒂莫西·布莱凯特</blockquote></p><p> Heigh-Ho Silver!</p><p><blockquote>嗨-嗬银！</blockquote></p><p> <i>The Aden Forecast Weekly Update</i></p><p><blockquote><i>亚丁天气预报每周更新</i></blockquote></p><p> <i>The Aden Forecast</i></p><p><blockquote><i>亚丁天气预报</i></blockquote></p><p> adenforecast.com</p><p><blockquote>adenforecast.com</blockquote></p><p> Feb. 4: Silver caught on fire by zipping up to the August highs near $30 on Monday during the Reddit buying frenzy. Silver was strong anyway, and it’s been holding up well, so whoever pegged silver knew what they were doing. Silver shares also got a big boost upward, and while they have since calmed down, it looks like volatility will stay with us. Silver has been holding above its 15-week moving average since December, and it’ll remain strong by staying above it at $25. The next milestone to surpass is the $30 level, the highs for this bull market. If clearly broken, another leg up will be underway. Keep your silver and silver share positions.</p><p><blockquote>2月4日：周一，在Reddit的购买狂潮中，白银飙升至接近30美元的8月份高点。无论如何，白银都很坚挺，而且一直保持良好，所以无论谁盯住白银，都知道他们在做什么。白银股也大幅上涨，虽然此后有所平静，但波动性似乎仍将持续。自12月以来，白银一直保持在15周移动平均线上方，并将保持在25美元上方。下一个要超越的里程碑是30美元水平，这是本轮牛市的高点。如果明显被打破，另一条腿将会上升。保持你的白银和白银份额头寸。</blockquote></p><p> —Mary Anne and Pamela Aden</p><p><blockquote>——玛丽·安妮和帕梅拉·亚丁</blockquote></p><p> How to Play Oil’s Recent Rally</p><p><blockquote>如何玩转石油近期的反弹</blockquote></p><p> <i>Daily Insights</i></p><p><blockquote><i>每日洞察</i></blockquote></p><p> <i>BCA Research</i></p><p><blockquote><i>BCA研究</i></blockquote></p><p> <i>bcaresearch.com</i></p><p><blockquote><i>bcaresearch.com</i></blockquote></p><p> Feb 4: The recent oil rally will have consequences for asset prices beyond the energy market. While higher oil prices benefit oil exporters, they hurt the economies of oil importers, often with a lag.</p><p><blockquote>2月4日：最近的油价上涨将对能源市场以外的资产价格产生影响。虽然油价上涨有利于石油出口国，但也损害了石油进口国的经济，而且往往有滞后性。</blockquote></p><p> A great example of these dynamics is China. The Chinese economy is a large oil importer; hence, rising oil prices act as a tax on Chinese growth. Moreover, Chinese A shares massively overweight tech stocks, which receive no benefit from higher energy prices. In fact, over the past four years, increasing Brent prices reliably lead to a decline in on-shore domestic markets by roughly three months. The current setup is reminiscent of early 2018. Back then, Chinese A shares had been rallying for a few months after oil prices had started to rally. Ultimately, a deceleration in Chinese growth and cautious policy making from Beijing resulted in a powerful selloff of Chinese equities. Today, Chinese growth is once again decelerating and Beijing is conducting some significant regulatory tightening, while the People’s Bank of China is draining liquidity. Thus, a significant correction in Chinese shares is likely this spring.</p><p><blockquote>这些动态的一个很好的例子是中国。中国经济是石油进口大国；因此，油价上涨是对中国经济增长的一种征税。此外，中国A股大量持有跑赢大盘科技股，这些股没有从能源价格上涨中受益。事实上，在过去四年中，布伦特原油价格上涨确实会导致国内市场在岸价格下跌约三个月。目前的设置让人想起2018年初。当时，在油价开始上涨后，中国A股已经上涨了几个月。最终，中国经济增长放缓和北京谨慎的政策制定导致了中国股市的大幅抛售。如今，中国经济增长再次减速，北京正在进行一些重大监管收紧，而中国人民银行正在抽干流动性。因此，今年春天中国股市可能会出现大幅调整。</blockquote></p><p> A lower-octane strategy to play these dynamics is to go long United Kingdom equities relative to Germany’s while espousing the implicit currency exposure. German equities are extremely underweight energy, and Germany imports its entire oil consumption. Meanwhile, the U.K. benchmark is replete with energy stocks and the U.K. remains an oil producer, even if it imports some of its oil (rising Brent represents a comparatively smaller tax on the U.K. economy). As a side benefit, the pound is very cheap against the euro and the U.K.’s vaccination campaign is massively ahead of the eurozone’s, which could result in earlier economic dividends north of the Channel and hurt the euro/pound in the process.</p><p><blockquote>利用这些动态的低辛烷值策略是相对于德国股市做多英国股市，同时支持隐性货币敞口。德国股票非常跑输大盘能源，德国的石油消费全部进口。与此同时，英国基准充满了能源股，英国仍然是石油生产国，即使它进口部分石油（布伦特原油价格上涨对英国经济的税收相对较小）。作为一个附带好处，英镑兑欧元非常便宜，而且英国的疫苗接种活动远远领先于欧元区，这可能会导致英吉利海峡以北更早的经济红利，并在此过程中损害欧元/英镑。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> —Mathieu Savary and Team</p><p><blockquote>——Mathieu Savary和团队</blockquote></p><p> High-Yield Opportunities</p><p><blockquote>高收益机会</blockquote></p><p> <i>Carret Credit Insight</i></p><p><blockquote><i>Carret信用洞察</i></blockquote></p><p> <i>Carret Asset Mangaement</i></p><p><blockquote><i>Carret资产管理</i></blockquote></p><p> carret.com</p><p><blockquote>carret.com</blockquote></p><p> Feb. 3: At year-end 2020, the iBoxx High-Yield Index yielded 4.23%, an all-time low. Spreads also registered record tightness. Low yields aren’t a surprise as investors globally reach for income. The Federal Reserve has backstopped the “fallen angels,” allowing many high-yield (HY) companies to refinance at ever-lower rates and extend upcoming maturities for another day. Strong equity markets are forecasting an earnings rebound, and the vaccines will bring brighter days soon. We continue to find attractive values in the short/intermediate portion of the high-quality HY market.</p><p><blockquote>2月3日：2020年底，iBoxx高收益指数收益率为4.23%，创历史新低。利差也创下历史新高。随着全球投资者寻求收入，低收益率并不令人意外。美联储支持“堕落天使”，允许许多高收益（HY）公司以更低的利率进行再融资，并将即将到期的期限延长一天。强劲的股市预测盈利将反弹，疫苗将很快带来光明的日子。我们继续在高质量HY市场的短期/中期部分发现有吸引力的价值。</blockquote></p><p> We want to share a recent academic study with you regarding the risk and returns in the HY bond market: George Mason Universityrecently publisheda report on HY bond-fund returns and volatility relative to equities (S&amp;P 500). Since 1990, the average HY bond fund has delivered average annualized returns of 7.1% with a volatility of 7.7%. Over the same time period, the S&amp;P 500 delivered an average annualized return of 7.8%, but with almost double the volatility of 14.5%. The conclusion: HY bonds have paid total returns near those of the U.S. stock market with half of the volatility. We believe the HY market will offer competitive returns in the decade ahead, as equity valuations have risen and Treasury yields have plummeted. Our ability to utilize busted convertibles, preferreds, and special-situation income investments enhances our cash-flow opportunities.</p><p><blockquote>我们想与您分享一项关于HY债券市场风险和回报的最新学术研究：George Mason University最近发布了一份关于HY债券基金回报和相对于股票波动性的报告（标普500）。自1990年以来，HY债券基金的平均年化回报率为7.1%，波动率为7.7%。同期，标普500的平均年化回报率为7.8%，但波动性几乎是14.5%的两倍。结论是：HY债券的总回报接近美国股市，而波动性只有美国股市的一半。我们相信，随着股票估值上升和国债收益率暴跌，HY市场将在未来十年提供有竞争力的回报。我们利用破产的可转换债券、优先股和特殊情况收入投资的能力增强了我们的现金流机会。</blockquote></p><p> —Jason R. Graybill, Neil D. Klein</p><p><blockquote>——杰森·R·格雷比尔、尼尔·D·克莱因</blockquote></p><p> Emerging Markets Blast Off</p><p><blockquote>新兴市场起飞</blockquote></p><p> <i>PCM Report</i></p><p><blockquote><i>PCM报告</i></blockquote></p><p> <i>Peak Capital Management</i></p><p><blockquote><i>匹克资本管理</i></blockquote></p><p> pcmstrategies.com</p><p><blockquote>pcmstrategies.com</blockquote></p><p> Feb. 1: So far, 2021 has been a good year for emerging-market equities. Year to date, theiShares MSCI Emerging Marketsexchange-traded fund (EEM) is higher by roughly 8%, compared to a gain of approximately 3% for theSPDR S&amp;P 500ETF (SPY). Ever since the financial crisis of 2008, emerging markets collectively have woefully lagged U.S. equities.</p><p><blockquote>2月1日：到目前为止，2021年对新兴市场股市来说是好年景。今年迄今为止，iShares MSCI新兴市场交易所交易基金(EEM)上涨了约8%，而SPDR S&amp;P 500ETF（SPDR标普500指数ETF）的涨幅约为3%。自2008年金融危机以来，新兴市场整体表现严重落后于美国股市。</blockquote></p><p> What could propel the asset class higher in 20201 and beyond? In the long term, the likely catalyst is demographics. Developed markets such as the U.S. and Europe have aging populations, which could suggest lower productivity and gross-domestic-product growth over the next decade compared to emerging-market economies.</p><p><blockquote>什么可以推动该资产类别在20201年及以后走高？从长远来看，可能的催化剂是人口统计。美国和欧洲等发达市场人口老龄化，这可能意味着与新兴市场经济体相比，未来十年的生产率和国内生产总值增长可能会较低。</blockquote></p><p> In its most recent capital-markets report, JPMorgan projected GDP growth across emerging markets to be 3.9% in 2021, compared to 1.6% across developed markets. The report suggests China and India will drive GDP growth, and emerging markets’ productivity and human capital will gradually converge to developed-market levels.</p><p><blockquote>摩根大通在其最新的资本市场报告中预计，2021年新兴市场的GDP增长率为3.9%，而发达市场为1.6%。报告显示，中国和印度将推动GDP增长，新兴市场的生产率和人力资本将逐渐向发达市场水平趋同。</blockquote></p><p> —Clint Pekrul</p><p><blockquote>-克林特·佩克鲁尔</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Here’s What the GameStop Affair Has Taught Us<blockquote>以下是游戏驿站事件教给我们的</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHere’s What the GameStop Affair Has Taught Us<blockquote>以下是游戏驿站事件教给我们的</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Barrons</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-02-08 18:51</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><i>This commentary was issued recently by money managers, research firms, and market newsletter writers and has been edited by Barron’s.</i></p><p><blockquote><i>这篇评论最近由基金经理、研究公司和市场时事通讯作者发表，并由《巴伦周刊》编辑。</i></blockquote></p><p> What GameStop Taught Us</p><p><blockquote>游戏驿站教给我们的</blockquote></p><p> <i>The Weekly Speculator</i></p><p><blockquote><i>每周投机者</i></blockquote></p><p> <i>Marketfield Asset Management</i></p><p><blockquote><i>Marketfield资产管理</i></blockquote></p><p> marketfield.com</p><p><blockquote>marketfield.com</blockquote></p><p> Feb. 4: After all is said and done, one of the most lasting effects of theGameStop(ticker: GME) episode will be to educate many market participants about the key role and ultimate power held by the clearing institution, the Depository Trust Company. One of the stranger aspects of the affair has been the attempt to paint it as some form of moral crusade, or an opportunity for the “little guy” to get even with Wall Street. The truth is that some large investors lost a great deal of money, while others were well rewarded, just as some small investors will have reaped life-changing sums while others will have lost funds that may prove to be equally impactful. In this sense, the market is a meritocracy, which isn’t quite the same as saying that it is always fair in delivering outcomes.</p><p><blockquote>2月4日：总而言之，GameStop（股票代码：GME）事件最持久的影响之一将是让许多市场参与者了解清算机构存款信托公司所扮演的关键角色和最终权力。这件事更奇怪的一面是，有人试图将其描绘成某种形式的道德讨伐，或者是“小人物”报复华尔街的机会。事实是，一些大投资者损失了大量资金，而另一些投资者则获得了丰厚的回报，就像一些小投资者将获得改变生活的资金，而另一些投资者将损失可能同样具有影响力的资金一样。从这个意义上说，市场是一个精英统治，这并不等同于说它在提供结果方面总是公平的。</blockquote></p><p> What is also clear is that late January saw a very significant degrossing of levered hedge-fund investors, without causing a deep correction in the equity market. The S&amp;P 500 essentially respected support at the 50-day moving average, and didn’t need to move down to 3600, which we had set as a “worst case” target. The Nasdaq 100, Russell 2000, and MSCI Emerging Markets Index didn’t need to touch their corresponding trend support, and all three indexes managed to generate a positive return in January, unlike the S&amp;P 500, which registered a small loss. The subsequent bounce has been rapid and broad, as would be expected from a catalyst that was both technical and ephemeral in nature.</p><p><blockquote>同样清楚的是，1月下旬，杠杆对冲基金投资者的资金大幅减少，但并未导致股市大幅调整。标普500基本上尊重50日均线的支撑，不需要跌至我们设定的“最坏情况”目标3600点。纳斯达克100指数、Russell 2000指数和MSCI新兴市场指数不需要触及相应的趋势支撑，这三个指数在1月份都成功产生了正回报，不像标普500出现了小幅亏损。随后的反弹迅速而广泛，正如技术性和短暂性催化剂所预期的那样。</blockquote></p><p> That it is not a wholly positive or inconsequential affair. The long bull market is now showing signs of developing into a historic mania. This doesn’t mean that a market peak is imminent, but the normative process—whereby what is “appropriate” is ultimately influenced by extremes—means that the levels of risk being taken by the average investor are probably significantly higher than they were pre-Covid.</p><p><blockquote>这不是一件完全积极或无关紧要的事情。漫长的牛市现在有发展成历史性狂热的迹象。这并不意味着市场峰值即将到来，但规范过程——什么是“适当的”最终会受到极端情况的影响——意味着普通投资者承担的风险水平可能明显高于Covid之前。</blockquote></p><p> —Michael Shaoul, Timothy Brackett</p><p><blockquote>——迈克尔·绍尔、蒂莫西·布莱凯特</blockquote></p><p> Heigh-Ho Silver!</p><p><blockquote>嗨-嗬银！</blockquote></p><p> <i>The Aden Forecast Weekly Update</i></p><p><blockquote><i>亚丁天气预报每周更新</i></blockquote></p><p> <i>The Aden Forecast</i></p><p><blockquote><i>亚丁天气预报</i></blockquote></p><p> adenforecast.com</p><p><blockquote>adenforecast.com</blockquote></p><p> Feb. 4: Silver caught on fire by zipping up to the August highs near $30 on Monday during the Reddit buying frenzy. Silver was strong anyway, and it’s been holding up well, so whoever pegged silver knew what they were doing. Silver shares also got a big boost upward, and while they have since calmed down, it looks like volatility will stay with us. Silver has been holding above its 15-week moving average since December, and it’ll remain strong by staying above it at $25. The next milestone to surpass is the $30 level, the highs for this bull market. If clearly broken, another leg up will be underway. Keep your silver and silver share positions.</p><p><blockquote>2月4日：周一，在Reddit的购买狂潮中，白银飙升至接近30美元的8月份高点。无论如何，白银都很坚挺，而且一直保持良好，所以无论谁盯住白银，都知道他们在做什么。白银股也大幅上涨，虽然此后有所平静，但波动性似乎仍将持续。自12月以来，白银一直保持在15周移动平均线上方，并将保持在25美元上方。下一个要超越的里程碑是30美元水平，这是本轮牛市的高点。如果明显被打破，另一条腿将会上升。保持你的白银和白银份额头寸。</blockquote></p><p> —Mary Anne and Pamela Aden</p><p><blockquote>——玛丽·安妮和帕梅拉·亚丁</blockquote></p><p> How to Play Oil’s Recent Rally</p><p><blockquote>如何玩转石油近期的反弹</blockquote></p><p> <i>Daily Insights</i></p><p><blockquote><i>每日洞察</i></blockquote></p><p> <i>BCA Research</i></p><p><blockquote><i>BCA研究</i></blockquote></p><p> <i>bcaresearch.com</i></p><p><blockquote><i>bcaresearch.com</i></blockquote></p><p> Feb 4: The recent oil rally will have consequences for asset prices beyond the energy market. While higher oil prices benefit oil exporters, they hurt the economies of oil importers, often with a lag.</p><p><blockquote>2月4日：最近的油价上涨将对能源市场以外的资产价格产生影响。虽然油价上涨有利于石油出口国，但也损害了石油进口国的经济，而且往往有滞后性。</blockquote></p><p> A great example of these dynamics is China. The Chinese economy is a large oil importer; hence, rising oil prices act as a tax on Chinese growth. Moreover, Chinese A shares massively overweight tech stocks, which receive no benefit from higher energy prices. In fact, over the past four years, increasing Brent prices reliably lead to a decline in on-shore domestic markets by roughly three months. The current setup is reminiscent of early 2018. Back then, Chinese A shares had been rallying for a few months after oil prices had started to rally. Ultimately, a deceleration in Chinese growth and cautious policy making from Beijing resulted in a powerful selloff of Chinese equities. Today, Chinese growth is once again decelerating and Beijing is conducting some significant regulatory tightening, while the People’s Bank of China is draining liquidity. Thus, a significant correction in Chinese shares is likely this spring.</p><p><blockquote>这些动态的一个很好的例子是中国。中国经济是石油进口大国；因此，油价上涨是对中国经济增长的一种征税。此外，中国A股大量持有跑赢大盘科技股，这些股没有从能源价格上涨中受益。事实上，在过去四年中，布伦特原油价格上涨确实会导致国内市场在岸价格下跌约三个月。目前的设置让人想起2018年初。当时，在油价开始上涨后，中国A股已经上涨了几个月。最终，中国经济增长放缓和北京谨慎的政策制定导致了中国股市的大幅抛售。如今，中国经济增长再次减速，北京正在进行一些重大监管收紧，而中国人民银行正在抽干流动性。因此，今年春天中国股市可能会出现大幅调整。</blockquote></p><p> A lower-octane strategy to play these dynamics is to go long United Kingdom equities relative to Germany’s while espousing the implicit currency exposure. German equities are extremely underweight energy, and Germany imports its entire oil consumption. Meanwhile, the U.K. benchmark is replete with energy stocks and the U.K. remains an oil producer, even if it imports some of its oil (rising Brent represents a comparatively smaller tax on the U.K. economy). As a side benefit, the pound is very cheap against the euro and the U.K.’s vaccination campaign is massively ahead of the eurozone’s, which could result in earlier economic dividends north of the Channel and hurt the euro/pound in the process.</p><p><blockquote>利用这些动态的低辛烷值策略是相对于德国股市做多英国股市，同时支持隐性货币敞口。德国股票非常跑输大盘能源，德国的石油消费全部进口。与此同时，英国基准充满了能源股，英国仍然是石油生产国，即使它进口部分石油（布伦特原油价格上涨对英国经济的税收相对较小）。作为一个附带好处，英镑兑欧元非常便宜，而且英国的疫苗接种活动远远领先于欧元区，这可能会导致英吉利海峡以北更早的经济红利，并在此过程中损害欧元/英镑。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> —Mathieu Savary and Team</p><p><blockquote>——Mathieu Savary和团队</blockquote></p><p> High-Yield Opportunities</p><p><blockquote>高收益机会</blockquote></p><p> <i>Carret Credit Insight</i></p><p><blockquote><i>Carret信用洞察</i></blockquote></p><p> <i>Carret Asset Mangaement</i></p><p><blockquote><i>Carret资产管理</i></blockquote></p><p> carret.com</p><p><blockquote>carret.com</blockquote></p><p> Feb. 3: At year-end 2020, the iBoxx High-Yield Index yielded 4.23%, an all-time low. Spreads also registered record tightness. Low yields aren’t a surprise as investors globally reach for income. The Federal Reserve has backstopped the “fallen angels,” allowing many high-yield (HY) companies to refinance at ever-lower rates and extend upcoming maturities for another day. Strong equity markets are forecasting an earnings rebound, and the vaccines will bring brighter days soon. We continue to find attractive values in the short/intermediate portion of the high-quality HY market.</p><p><blockquote>2月3日：2020年底，iBoxx高收益指数收益率为4.23%，创历史新低。利差也创下历史新高。随着全球投资者寻求收入，低收益率并不令人意外。美联储支持“堕落天使”，允许许多高收益（HY）公司以更低的利率进行再融资，并将即将到期的期限延长一天。强劲的股市预测盈利将反弹，疫苗将很快带来光明的日子。我们继续在高质量HY市场的短期/中期部分发现有吸引力的价值。</blockquote></p><p> We want to share a recent academic study with you regarding the risk and returns in the HY bond market: George Mason Universityrecently publisheda report on HY bond-fund returns and volatility relative to equities (S&amp;P 500). Since 1990, the average HY bond fund has delivered average annualized returns of 7.1% with a volatility of 7.7%. Over the same time period, the S&amp;P 500 delivered an average annualized return of 7.8%, but with almost double the volatility of 14.5%. The conclusion: HY bonds have paid total returns near those of the U.S. stock market with half of the volatility. We believe the HY market will offer competitive returns in the decade ahead, as equity valuations have risen and Treasury yields have plummeted. Our ability to utilize busted convertibles, preferreds, and special-situation income investments enhances our cash-flow opportunities.</p><p><blockquote>我们想与您分享一项关于HY债券市场风险和回报的最新学术研究：George Mason University最近发布了一份关于HY债券基金回报和相对于股票波动性的报告（标普500）。自1990年以来，HY债券基金的平均年化回报率为7.1%，波动率为7.7%。同期，标普500的平均年化回报率为7.8%，但波动性几乎是14.5%的两倍。结论是：HY债券的总回报接近美国股市，而波动性只有美国股市的一半。我们相信，随着股票估值上升和国债收益率暴跌，HY市场将在未来十年提供有竞争力的回报。我们利用破产的可转换债券、优先股和特殊情况收入投资的能力增强了我们的现金流机会。</blockquote></p><p> —Jason R. Graybill, Neil D. Klein</p><p><blockquote>——杰森·R·格雷比尔、尼尔·D·克莱因</blockquote></p><p> Emerging Markets Blast Off</p><p><blockquote>新兴市场起飞</blockquote></p><p> <i>PCM Report</i></p><p><blockquote><i>PCM报告</i></blockquote></p><p> <i>Peak Capital Management</i></p><p><blockquote><i>匹克资本管理</i></blockquote></p><p> pcmstrategies.com</p><p><blockquote>pcmstrategies.com</blockquote></p><p> Feb. 1: So far, 2021 has been a good year for emerging-market equities. Year to date, theiShares MSCI Emerging Marketsexchange-traded fund (EEM) is higher by roughly 8%, compared to a gain of approximately 3% for theSPDR S&amp;P 500ETF (SPY). Ever since the financial crisis of 2008, emerging markets collectively have woefully lagged U.S. equities.</p><p><blockquote>2月1日：到目前为止，2021年对新兴市场股市来说是好年景。今年迄今为止，iShares MSCI新兴市场交易所交易基金(EEM)上涨了约8%，而SPDR S&amp;P 500ETF（SPDR标普500指数ETF）的涨幅约为3%。自2008年金融危机以来，新兴市场整体表现严重落后于美国股市。</blockquote></p><p> What could propel the asset class higher in 20201 and beyond? In the long term, the likely catalyst is demographics. Developed markets such as the U.S. and Europe have aging populations, which could suggest lower productivity and gross-domestic-product growth over the next decade compared to emerging-market economies.</p><p><blockquote>什么可以推动该资产类别在20201年及以后走高？从长远来看，可能的催化剂是人口统计。美国和欧洲等发达市场人口老龄化，这可能意味着与新兴市场经济体相比，未来十年的生产率和国内生产总值增长可能会较低。</blockquote></p><p> In its most recent capital-markets report, JPMorgan projected GDP growth across emerging markets to be 3.9% in 2021, compared to 1.6% across developed markets. The report suggests China and India will drive GDP growth, and emerging markets’ productivity and human capital will gradually converge to developed-market levels.</p><p><blockquote>摩根大通在其最新的资本市场报告中预计，2021年新兴市场的GDP增长率为3.9%，而发达市场为1.6%。报告显示，中国和印度将推动GDP增长，新兴市场的生产率和人力资本将逐渐向发达市场水平趋同。</blockquote></p><p> —Clint Pekrul</p><p><blockquote>-克林特·佩克鲁尔</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/gamestop-episode-offers-lessons-for-investors-51612572300?mod=RTA\">Barrons</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","GME":"游戏驿站",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/gamestop-episode-offers-lessons-for-investors-51612572300?mod=RTA","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1195153829","content_text":"This commentary was issued recently by money managers, research firms, and market newsletter writers and has been edited by Barron’s.\nWhat GameStop Taught Us\nThe Weekly Speculator\nMarketfield Asset Management\nmarketfield.com\nFeb. 4: After all is said and done, one of the most lasting effects of theGameStop(ticker: GME) episode will be to educate many market participants about the key role and ultimate power held by the clearing institution, the Depository Trust Company. One of the stranger aspects of the affair has been the attempt to paint it as some form of moral crusade, or an opportunity for the “little guy” to get even with Wall Street. The truth is that some large investors lost a great deal of money, while others were well rewarded, just as some small investors will have reaped life-changing sums while others will have lost funds that may prove to be equally impactful. In this sense, the market is a meritocracy, which isn’t quite the same as saying that it is always fair in delivering outcomes.\nWhat is also clear is that late January saw a very significant degrossing of levered hedge-fund investors, without causing a deep correction in the equity market. The S&P 500 essentially respected support at the 50-day moving average, and didn’t need to move down to 3600, which we had set as a “worst case” target. The Nasdaq 100, Russell 2000, and MSCI Emerging Markets Index didn’t need to touch their corresponding trend support, and all three indexes managed to generate a positive return in January, unlike the S&P 500, which registered a small loss. The subsequent bounce has been rapid and broad, as would be expected from a catalyst that was both technical and ephemeral in nature.\nThat it is not a wholly positive or inconsequential affair. The long bull market is now showing signs of developing into a historic mania. This doesn’t mean that a market peak is imminent, but the normative process—whereby what is “appropriate” is ultimately influenced by extremes—means that the levels of risk being taken by the average investor are probably significantly higher than they were pre-Covid.\n—Michael Shaoul, Timothy Brackett\nHeigh-Ho Silver!\nThe Aden Forecast Weekly Update\nThe Aden Forecast\nadenforecast.com\nFeb. 4: Silver caught on fire by zipping up to the August highs near $30 on Monday during the Reddit buying frenzy. Silver was strong anyway, and it’s been holding up well, so whoever pegged silver knew what they were doing. Silver shares also got a big boost upward, and while they have since calmed down, it looks like volatility will stay with us. Silver has been holding above its 15-week moving average since December, and it’ll remain strong by staying above it at $25. The next milestone to surpass is the $30 level, the highs for this bull market. If clearly broken, another leg up will be underway. Keep your silver and silver share positions.\n—Mary Anne and Pamela Aden\nHow to Play Oil’s Recent Rally\nDaily Insights\nBCA Research\nbcaresearch.com\nFeb 4: The recent oil rally will have consequences for asset prices beyond the energy market. While higher oil prices benefit oil exporters, they hurt the economies of oil importers, often with a lag.\nA great example of these dynamics is China. The Chinese economy is a large oil importer; hence, rising oil prices act as a tax on Chinese growth. Moreover, Chinese A shares massively overweight tech stocks, which receive no benefit from higher energy prices. In fact, over the past four years, increasing Brent prices reliably lead to a decline in on-shore domestic markets by roughly three months. The current setup is reminiscent of early 2018. Back then, Chinese A shares had been rallying for a few months after oil prices had started to rally. Ultimately, a deceleration in Chinese growth and cautious policy making from Beijing resulted in a powerful selloff of Chinese equities. Today, Chinese growth is once again decelerating and Beijing is conducting some significant regulatory tightening, while the People’s Bank of China is draining liquidity. Thus, a significant correction in Chinese shares is likely this spring.\nA lower-octane strategy to play these dynamics is to go long United Kingdom equities relative to Germany’s while espousing the implicit currency exposure. German equities are extremely underweight energy, and Germany imports its entire oil consumption. Meanwhile, the U.K. benchmark is replete with energy stocks and the U.K. remains an oil producer, even if it imports some of its oil (rising Brent represents a comparatively smaller tax on the U.K. economy). As a side benefit, the pound is very cheap against the euro and the U.K.’s vaccination campaign is massively ahead of the eurozone’s, which could result in earlier economic dividends north of the Channel and hurt the euro/pound in the process.\n—Mathieu Savary and Team\nHigh-Yield Opportunities\nCarret Credit Insight\nCarret Asset Mangaement\ncarret.com\nFeb. 3: At year-end 2020, the iBoxx High-Yield Index yielded 4.23%, an all-time low. Spreads also registered record tightness. Low yields aren’t a surprise as investors globally reach for income. The Federal Reserve has backstopped the “fallen angels,” allowing many high-yield (HY) companies to refinance at ever-lower rates and extend upcoming maturities for another day. Strong equity markets are forecasting an earnings rebound, and the vaccines will bring brighter days soon. We continue to find attractive values in the short/intermediate portion of the high-quality HY market.\nWe want to share a recent academic study with you regarding the risk and returns in the HY bond market: George Mason Universityrecently publisheda report on HY bond-fund returns and volatility relative to equities (S&P 500). Since 1990, the average HY bond fund has delivered average annualized returns of 7.1% with a volatility of 7.7%. Over the same time period, the S&P 500 delivered an average annualized return of 7.8%, but with almost double the volatility of 14.5%. The conclusion: HY bonds have paid total returns near those of the U.S. stock market with half of the volatility. We believe the HY market will offer competitive returns in the decade ahead, as equity valuations have risen and Treasury yields have plummeted. Our ability to utilize busted convertibles, preferreds, and special-situation income investments enhances our cash-flow opportunities.\n—Jason R. Graybill, Neil D. Klein\nEmerging Markets Blast Off\nPCM Report\nPeak Capital Management\npcmstrategies.com\nFeb. 1: So far, 2021 has been a good year for emerging-market equities. Year to date, theiShares MSCI Emerging Marketsexchange-traded fund (EEM) is higher by roughly 8%, compared to a gain of approximately 3% for theSPDR S&P 500ETF (SPY). Ever since the financial crisis of 2008, emerging markets collectively have woefully lagged U.S. equities.\nWhat could propel the asset class higher in 20201 and beyond? In the long term, the likely catalyst is demographics. Developed markets such as the U.S. and Europe have aging populations, which could suggest lower productivity and gross-domestic-product growth over the next decade compared to emerging-market economies.\nIn its most recent capital-markets report, JPMorgan projected GDP growth across emerging markets to be 3.9% in 2021, compared to 1.6% across developed markets. The report suggests China and India will drive GDP growth, and emerging markets’ productivity and human capital will gradually converge to developed-market levels.\n—Clint Pekrul","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"GME":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1420,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":389690519,"gmtCreate":1612759657531,"gmtModify":1703764676090,"author":{"id":"3574943968736312","authorId":"3574943968736312","name":"Dendenislit","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8650796e48e17621c226e2bfd4ca39a4","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574943968736312","idStr":"3574943968736312"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Damn","listText":"Damn","text":"Damn","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/389690519","repostId":"1180268693","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1180268693","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1612755259,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1180268693?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-02-08 11:34","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Where Can Investors Hide as a Bubble Inflates?<blockquote>随着泡沫的膨胀，投资者可以躲在哪里？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1180268693","media":"Barrons","summary":"Let’s settle one thing up front. We’re clearly witnessing a speculative bubble in the financial mark","content":"<p>Let’s settle one thing up front. We’re clearly witnessing a speculative bubble in the financial markets. This time is no different. This mania will end the same way they all do: in tears.</p><p><blockquote>让我们先解决一件事。我们显然正在目睹金融市场的投机泡沫。这次也不例外。这种狂热将以他们都做的方式结束：在眼泪中。</blockquote></p><p> I started banging the gong in mid-2020 about the imminent risk of financial crisis stemming from three potential causes: a severe market correction, a deteriorating U.S. fiscal position from unsustainable growth in deficits and debt, and the inflation that was likely to follow.</p><p><blockquote>我在2020年年中开始敲响金融危机迫在眉睫的风险，这些风险源于三个潜在原因：严重的市场调整、赤字和债务不可持续增长导致的美国财政状况恶化，以及可能随之而来的通货膨胀。</blockquote></p><p> At that time, this viewpoint was greeted with a heavy dose of skepticism. Inflationary views were considered fringe. Respected economists were quick to point out the lack of demand for money relative to rapidly expanding supply, slack in the lockdown economy, and prevailing expectations for deflation based on recent history. Wall Street has little incentive to call a market bubble. Fees are made and bonuses paid when optimism, activity and volatility are high, not by predictions of impending doom. The euphorias of bubbles are like the best narcotics—stimulative and somewhat hypnotic. But the bigger the high, the worse the comedown.</p><p><blockquote>当时，这一观点遭到了强烈的怀疑。通货膨胀观点被认为是边缘观点。受人尊敬的经济学家很快指出，相对于快速扩张的供应，货币需求不足，封锁经济疲软，以及基于近期历史的通货紧缩预期。华尔街几乎没有动力去看涨期权市场泡沫。当乐观情绪、活动和波动性很高时，就会收取费用和支付奖金，而不是通过对即将到来的厄运的预测。泡沫带来的快感就像最好的麻醉剂——既刺激又有点催眠。但高点越大，衰退就越严重。</blockquote></p><p> These contrarian views of inflation and market correction have now become mainstream. The warning signs of market mania are evident inBitcoin(up 300% in a year), the deluge ofSPAC IPOs(always a signal of a top), exorbitantP/E ratios, and rapidly rising real estateprices. These, along with retail-driven short squeezes and mini-bubbles, are symptoms of underlying conditions set in motion long ago by a flood of liquidity unleashed by the Federal Reserve. This time is different, however, in one important way. When this bubble bursts, the Fed can no longer prop up the market by lowering interest rates. Real rates, which were about 4% before the global financial crisis, are now below zero almost everywhere.</p><p><blockquote>这些对通胀和市场回调的逆向观点现已成为主流。市场狂热的警告信号在比特币（一年内上涨300%）、SPAC IPO的泛滥（始终是见顶的信号）、过高的市盈率以及快速上涨的房地产价格中显而易见。这些，以及散户驱动的空头挤压和迷你泡沫，都是美联储很久以前释放的大量流动性引发的潜在状况的症状。然而，这一次在一个重要方面有所不同。当这个泡沫破裂时，美联储就无法再通过降低利率来支撑市场。全球金融危机前的实际利率约为4%，现在几乎所有地方都低于零。</blockquote></p><p> The Biden administration is expected to unleash a blue wave of stimulus and other spending. This comes at a time when the revenue base is eroding, and the U.S. is no longer in a sound fiscal position. It is only a matter of time until government struggles to efficiently borrow against a gaping deficit and compounding debt. In 2020 alone, the U.S. government spent $3 trillion on pandemic relief while suffering a $2.1 trilliondecline in national incomefrom crippling lockdowns in our most economically important states, many of which continue today. By the end of fiscal 2020, total U.S. governmentdebtwas $27 trillion, up 20% from 2019 and triple the amount prior to the financial crisis. The Fed has absorbed a lot of this increase. Bond investors are rightly nervous.</p><p><blockquote>预计拜登政府将推出蓝色刺激和其他支出浪潮。这发生在收入基础正在侵蚀、美国财政状况不再良好的时候。政府难以有效地举债应对不断扩大的赤字和不断增加的债务只是时间问题。仅在2020年，美国政府就在疫情救助上花费了3万亿美元，同时由于我们最重要的经济州的严重封锁，国民收入下降了2.1万亿美元，其中许多州至今仍在继续。截至2020财年末，美国政府债务总额为27万亿美元，比2019年增长20%，是金融危机前的三倍。美联储已经吸收了很多这种增长。债券投资者的紧张是理所当然的。</blockquote></p><p> It is no surprise that the Fed has since adopted apro-inflation stance. An unspoken objective is to erode the topsoil from the mountain of U.S. debt at the expense of Americans. Inflation is a hidden tax that will eat away our purchasing power. Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff remind us in<i>This Time is Different</i>that throughout history, “the main device for defaulting on government obligations was… debasing the content of coinage. Modern currency presses are just a technologically advanced and more efficient approach to achieving the same end.” They note, “government debt is… often the unifying problem across the wide range of financial crises.”</p><p><blockquote>毫不奇怪，美联储此后采取了支持通胀的立场。一个不言而喻的目标是以美国人为代价侵蚀美国债务堆积如山的表土。通货膨胀是一种隐性税收，会侵蚀我们的购买力。卡门·莱因哈特和肯尼斯·罗格夫提醒我们<i>这次不一样</i>纵观历史，“政府债务违约的主要手段是……降低硬币的含量。现代货币印刷机只是实现同样目的的一种技术先进、效率更高的方法。”他们指出，“政府债务……往往是各种金融危机中的统一问题。”</blockquote></p><p> Prices are now rising in inflation bellwethers such as industrial metals, energy, and food commodities. The dollar haslost85% of its purchasing power since 1970. While a majority of this can be attributed to high inflation in the 1970s, even the supposedly deflationary 21st century has witnessed the erosion of one-third of the value of the dollar since 2000.</p><p><blockquote>工业金属、能源和食品等通胀风向标的价格目前正在上涨。自1970年以来，美元已经失去了85%的购买力。虽然这在很大程度上可以归因于20世纪70年代的高通胀，但即使是所谓的通货紧缩的21世纪，自2000年以来，美元价值也下跌了三分之一。</blockquote></p><p> Rising inflation expectations go a long way in explaining the vertiginous ascent of the equity markets in the face of a partially closed economy with muted growth. As lockdowns and travel restrictions ease, pent-up demand will pressure global supply chains and thus prices. We can expect to see a further acceleration of inflation as early as this spring as economies reopen.</p><p><blockquote>在经济部分封闭、增长乏力的情况下，通胀预期上升在很大程度上解释了股市为何会出现令人眩晕的上涨。随着封锁和旅行限制的放松，被压抑的需求将给全球供应链带来压力，从而给价格带来压力。随着经济重新开放，我们预计最早在今年春天就会看到通胀进一步加速。</blockquote></p><p> Where can one thrive, or at least hide, in this environment? U.S. equity markets are vastly overvalued by any historic measure, but bonds and cash are both danger zones in inflation. While conventional wisdom says to stay invested, it may be a good time to take some chips off of the table. Resist “FOMO,” the fear of missing out. If one has to stay invested, avoid the temptation of high-flying tech and growth equities, which are the most overvalued, in favor of diversifying among recently abandoned dividend-paying value stocks and emerging markets. Inflation-sensitive commodity (food, metals, and energy) producers should perform going forward. Gold has a millennia-long history of serving as a store of value and inflationary hedge, but pays no dividends along the way.</p><p><blockquote>在这种环境下，一个人能在哪里茁壮成长，或者至少能躲藏起来？以任何历史标准衡量，美国股市都被严重高估，但债券和现金都是通胀的危险区。虽然传统观点认为要保持投资，但现在可能是拿出一些筹码的好时机。抵制“FOMO”，害怕错过。如果必须继续投资，请避免估值最高估的高科技股和成长型股票的诱惑，转而在最近被放弃的派息价值股和新兴市场进行多元化投资。对通胀敏感的大宗商品（食品、金属和能源）生产商未来应该会表现出色。黄金作为价值储存和通胀对冲有着数千年的历史，但在此过程中没有支付股息。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Bitcoin similarly earns no yield. Cryptocurrencies have no intrinsic value, and, like fiat currencies, are worth whatever the market happens to believe. When the euphoria wears off, they may be hit hard. Besides, Bitcoin is a stacked game easily manipulated given the high concentration ofownershipby whales.</p><p><blockquote>比特币同样没有收益。加密货币没有内在价值，就像法定货币一样，无论市场相信什么，它都有价值。当兴奋消退时，他们可能会受到重创。此外，鉴于鲸鱼的所有权高度集中，比特币是一个很容易被操纵的堆叠游戏。</blockquote></p><p> Watch out for gearing in investments, whether in securities or real estate. If markets collapse, leverage will rapidly eat into the remaining value. Look for hidden exposure to risk (including inflation) in retirement accounts. Invest in hard assets not correlated to the markets. Stay liquid to exploit the inevitable correction.</p><p><blockquote>无论是证券还是房地产，都要注意投资杠杆。如果市场崩溃，杠杆将迅速侵蚀剩余价值。寻找退休账户中隐藏的风险（包括通货膨胀）。投资与市场无关的硬资产。保持流动性以利用不可避免的修正。</blockquote></p><p> We need to increase the pressure on our elected officials to cut the pork and reopen our economies. Americans want to get back to work. So-called stimulus funding is not getting into the hands of those who need it most. Ultimately, it’s the real economy, not financial markets, that drive growth and prosperity. That requires local businesses open, workers re-engaged, and productive capital investments made.</p><p><blockquote>我们需要加大对民选官员的压力，让他们削减猪肉，重新开放我们的经济。美国人想重返工作岗位。所谓的刺激资金没有到达最需要的人手中。最终，推动增长和繁荣的是实体经济，而不是金融市场。这需要当地企业开放，工人重新参与，并进行生产性资本投资。</blockquote></p><p> This is not doom and gloom. Since the problem is not a banking-sector credit crisis, and the underlying economy remains healthy (albeit weakened), postcorrection recovery may come more quickly and easily than following the financial crisis. While persistent inflation can create a host of problems, it usually supports fuller employment, and both producers and consumers will adapt to a changing price environment. In the meantime, it may be best to stay liquid and wait this one out. As spring follows even the darkest winter, the opportune time will come again.</p><p><blockquote>这不是厄运和黑暗。由于问题不是银行业的信贷危机，而且基础经济仍然健康（尽管有所减弱），调整后的复苏可能比金融危机后更快、更容易。虽然持续的通货膨胀会造成一系列问题，但它通常会支持更充分的就业，生产者和消费者都会适应不断变化的价格环境。与此同时，最好保持流动性，等待这一次结束。即使是最黑暗的冬天也会迎来春天，合适的时机也会再次到来。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Where Can Investors Hide as a Bubble Inflates?<blockquote>随着泡沫的膨胀，投资者可以躲在哪里？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhere Can Investors Hide as a Bubble Inflates?<blockquote>随着泡沫的膨胀，投资者可以躲在哪里？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Barrons</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-02-08 11:34</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Let’s settle one thing up front. We’re clearly witnessing a speculative bubble in the financial markets. This time is no different. This mania will end the same way they all do: in tears.</p><p><blockquote>让我们先解决一件事。我们显然正在目睹金融市场的投机泡沫。这次也不例外。这种狂热将以他们都做的方式结束：在眼泪中。</blockquote></p><p> I started banging the gong in mid-2020 about the imminent risk of financial crisis stemming from three potential causes: a severe market correction, a deteriorating U.S. fiscal position from unsustainable growth in deficits and debt, and the inflation that was likely to follow.</p><p><blockquote>我在2020年年中开始敲响金融危机迫在眉睫的风险，这些风险源于三个潜在原因：严重的市场调整、赤字和债务不可持续增长导致的美国财政状况恶化，以及可能随之而来的通货膨胀。</blockquote></p><p> At that time, this viewpoint was greeted with a heavy dose of skepticism. Inflationary views were considered fringe. Respected economists were quick to point out the lack of demand for money relative to rapidly expanding supply, slack in the lockdown economy, and prevailing expectations for deflation based on recent history. Wall Street has little incentive to call a market bubble. Fees are made and bonuses paid when optimism, activity and volatility are high, not by predictions of impending doom. The euphorias of bubbles are like the best narcotics—stimulative and somewhat hypnotic. But the bigger the high, the worse the comedown.</p><p><blockquote>当时，这一观点遭到了强烈的怀疑。通货膨胀观点被认为是边缘观点。受人尊敬的经济学家很快指出，相对于快速扩张的供应，货币需求不足，封锁经济疲软，以及基于近期历史的通货紧缩预期。华尔街几乎没有动力去看涨期权市场泡沫。当乐观情绪、活动和波动性很高时，就会收取费用和支付奖金，而不是通过对即将到来的厄运的预测。泡沫带来的快感就像最好的麻醉剂——既刺激又有点催眠。但高点越大，衰退就越严重。</blockquote></p><p> These contrarian views of inflation and market correction have now become mainstream. The warning signs of market mania are evident inBitcoin(up 300% in a year), the deluge ofSPAC IPOs(always a signal of a top), exorbitantP/E ratios, and rapidly rising real estateprices. These, along with retail-driven short squeezes and mini-bubbles, are symptoms of underlying conditions set in motion long ago by a flood of liquidity unleashed by the Federal Reserve. This time is different, however, in one important way. When this bubble bursts, the Fed can no longer prop up the market by lowering interest rates. Real rates, which were about 4% before the global financial crisis, are now below zero almost everywhere.</p><p><blockquote>这些对通胀和市场回调的逆向观点现已成为主流。市场狂热的警告信号在比特币（一年内上涨300%）、SPAC IPO的泛滥（始终是见顶的信号）、过高的市盈率以及快速上涨的房地产价格中显而易见。这些，以及散户驱动的空头挤压和迷你泡沫，都是美联储很久以前释放的大量流动性引发的潜在状况的症状。然而，这一次在一个重要方面有所不同。当这个泡沫破裂时，美联储就无法再通过降低利率来支撑市场。全球金融危机前的实际利率约为4%，现在几乎所有地方都低于零。</blockquote></p><p> The Biden administration is expected to unleash a blue wave of stimulus and other spending. This comes at a time when the revenue base is eroding, and the U.S. is no longer in a sound fiscal position. It is only a matter of time until government struggles to efficiently borrow against a gaping deficit and compounding debt. In 2020 alone, the U.S. government spent $3 trillion on pandemic relief while suffering a $2.1 trilliondecline in national incomefrom crippling lockdowns in our most economically important states, many of which continue today. By the end of fiscal 2020, total U.S. governmentdebtwas $27 trillion, up 20% from 2019 and triple the amount prior to the financial crisis. The Fed has absorbed a lot of this increase. Bond investors are rightly nervous.</p><p><blockquote>预计拜登政府将推出蓝色刺激和其他支出浪潮。这发生在收入基础正在侵蚀、美国财政状况不再良好的时候。政府难以有效地举债应对不断扩大的赤字和不断增加的债务只是时间问题。仅在2020年，美国政府就在疫情救助上花费了3万亿美元，同时由于我们最重要的经济州的严重封锁，国民收入下降了2.1万亿美元，其中许多州至今仍在继续。截至2020财年末，美国政府债务总额为27万亿美元，比2019年增长20%，是金融危机前的三倍。美联储已经吸收了很多这种增长。债券投资者的紧张是理所当然的。</blockquote></p><p> It is no surprise that the Fed has since adopted apro-inflation stance. An unspoken objective is to erode the topsoil from the mountain of U.S. debt at the expense of Americans. Inflation is a hidden tax that will eat away our purchasing power. Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff remind us in<i>This Time is Different</i>that throughout history, “the main device for defaulting on government obligations was… debasing the content of coinage. Modern currency presses are just a technologically advanced and more efficient approach to achieving the same end.” They note, “government debt is… often the unifying problem across the wide range of financial crises.”</p><p><blockquote>毫不奇怪，美联储此后采取了支持通胀的立场。一个不言而喻的目标是以美国人为代价侵蚀美国债务堆积如山的表土。通货膨胀是一种隐性税收，会侵蚀我们的购买力。卡门·莱因哈特和肯尼斯·罗格夫提醒我们<i>这次不一样</i>纵观历史，“政府债务违约的主要手段是……降低硬币的含量。现代货币印刷机只是实现同样目的的一种技术先进、效率更高的方法。”他们指出，“政府债务……往往是各种金融危机中的统一问题。”</blockquote></p><p> Prices are now rising in inflation bellwethers such as industrial metals, energy, and food commodities. The dollar haslost85% of its purchasing power since 1970. While a majority of this can be attributed to high inflation in the 1970s, even the supposedly deflationary 21st century has witnessed the erosion of one-third of the value of the dollar since 2000.</p><p><blockquote>工业金属、能源和食品等通胀风向标的价格目前正在上涨。自1970年以来，美元已经失去了85%的购买力。虽然这在很大程度上可以归因于20世纪70年代的高通胀，但即使是所谓的通货紧缩的21世纪，自2000年以来，美元价值也下跌了三分之一。</blockquote></p><p> Rising inflation expectations go a long way in explaining the vertiginous ascent of the equity markets in the face of a partially closed economy with muted growth. As lockdowns and travel restrictions ease, pent-up demand will pressure global supply chains and thus prices. We can expect to see a further acceleration of inflation as early as this spring as economies reopen.</p><p><blockquote>在经济部分封闭、增长乏力的情况下，通胀预期上升在很大程度上解释了股市为何会出现令人眩晕的上涨。随着封锁和旅行限制的放松，被压抑的需求将给全球供应链带来压力，从而给价格带来压力。随着经济重新开放，我们预计最早在今年春天就会看到通胀进一步加速。</blockquote></p><p> Where can one thrive, or at least hide, in this environment? U.S. equity markets are vastly overvalued by any historic measure, but bonds and cash are both danger zones in inflation. While conventional wisdom says to stay invested, it may be a good time to take some chips off of the table. Resist “FOMO,” the fear of missing out. If one has to stay invested, avoid the temptation of high-flying tech and growth equities, which are the most overvalued, in favor of diversifying among recently abandoned dividend-paying value stocks and emerging markets. Inflation-sensitive commodity (food, metals, and energy) producers should perform going forward. Gold has a millennia-long history of serving as a store of value and inflationary hedge, but pays no dividends along the way.</p><p><blockquote>在这种环境下，一个人能在哪里茁壮成长，或者至少能躲藏起来？以任何历史标准衡量，美国股市都被严重高估，但债券和现金都是通胀的危险区。虽然传统观点认为要保持投资，但现在可能是拿出一些筹码的好时机。抵制“FOMO”，害怕错过。如果必须继续投资，请避免估值最高估的高科技股和成长型股票的诱惑，转而在最近被放弃的派息价值股和新兴市场进行多元化投资。对通胀敏感的大宗商品（食品、金属和能源）生产商未来应该会表现出色。黄金作为价值储存和通胀对冲有着数千年的历史，但在此过程中没有支付股息。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Bitcoin similarly earns no yield. Cryptocurrencies have no intrinsic value, and, like fiat currencies, are worth whatever the market happens to believe. When the euphoria wears off, they may be hit hard. Besides, Bitcoin is a stacked game easily manipulated given the high concentration ofownershipby whales.</p><p><blockquote>比特币同样没有收益。加密货币没有内在价值，就像法定货币一样，无论市场相信什么，它都有价值。当兴奋消退时，他们可能会受到重创。此外，鉴于鲸鱼的所有权高度集中，比特币是一个很容易被操纵的堆叠游戏。</blockquote></p><p> Watch out for gearing in investments, whether in securities or real estate. If markets collapse, leverage will rapidly eat into the remaining value. Look for hidden exposure to risk (including inflation) in retirement accounts. Invest in hard assets not correlated to the markets. Stay liquid to exploit the inevitable correction.</p><p><blockquote>无论是证券还是房地产，都要注意投资杠杆。如果市场崩溃，杠杆将迅速侵蚀剩余价值。寻找退休账户中隐藏的风险（包括通货膨胀）。投资与市场无关的硬资产。保持流动性以利用不可避免的修正。</blockquote></p><p> We need to increase the pressure on our elected officials to cut the pork and reopen our economies. Americans want to get back to work. So-called stimulus funding is not getting into the hands of those who need it most. Ultimately, it’s the real economy, not financial markets, that drive growth and prosperity. That requires local businesses open, workers re-engaged, and productive capital investments made.</p><p><blockquote>我们需要加大对民选官员的压力，让他们削减猪肉，重新开放我们的经济。美国人想重返工作岗位。所谓的刺激资金没有到达最需要的人手中。最终，推动增长和繁荣的是实体经济，而不是金融市场。这需要当地企业开放，工人重新参与，并进行生产性资本投资。</blockquote></p><p> This is not doom and gloom. Since the problem is not a banking-sector credit crisis, and the underlying economy remains healthy (albeit weakened), postcorrection recovery may come more quickly and easily than following the financial crisis. While persistent inflation can create a host of problems, it usually supports fuller employment, and both producers and consumers will adapt to a changing price environment. In the meantime, it may be best to stay liquid and wait this one out. As spring follows even the darkest winter, the opportune time will come again.</p><p><blockquote>这不是厄运和黑暗。由于问题不是银行业的信贷危机，而且基础经济仍然健康（尽管有所减弱），调整后的复苏可能比金融危机后更快、更容易。虽然持续的通货膨胀会造成一系列问题，但它通常会支持更充分的就业，生产者和消费者都会适应不断变化的价格环境。与此同时，最好保持流动性，等待这一次结束。即使是最黑暗的冬天也会迎来春天，合适的时机也会再次到来。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/a-bubble-is-inflating-where-can-investors-hide-51612540675?mod=hp_COMMENTARY_2\">Barrons</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/a-bubble-is-inflating-where-can-investors-hide-51612540675?mod=hp_COMMENTARY_2","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1180268693","content_text":"Let’s settle one thing up front. We’re clearly witnessing a speculative bubble in the financial markets. This time is no different. This mania will end the same way they all do: in tears.\nI started banging the gong in mid-2020 about the imminent risk of financial crisis stemming from three potential causes: a severe market correction, a deteriorating U.S. fiscal position from unsustainable growth in deficits and debt, and the inflation that was likely to follow.\nAt that time, this viewpoint was greeted with a heavy dose of skepticism. Inflationary views were considered fringe. Respected economists were quick to point out the lack of demand for money relative to rapidly expanding supply, slack in the lockdown economy, and prevailing expectations for deflation based on recent history. Wall Street has little incentive to call a market bubble. Fees are made and bonuses paid when optimism, activity and volatility are high, not by predictions of impending doom. The euphorias of bubbles are like the best narcotics—stimulative and somewhat hypnotic. But the bigger the high, the worse the comedown.\nThese contrarian views of inflation and market correction have now become mainstream. The warning signs of market mania are evident inBitcoin(up 300% in a year), the deluge ofSPAC IPOs(always a signal of a top), exorbitantP/E ratios, and rapidly rising real estateprices. These, along with retail-driven short squeezes and mini-bubbles, are symptoms of underlying conditions set in motion long ago by a flood of liquidity unleashed by the Federal Reserve. This time is different, however, in one important way. When this bubble bursts, the Fed can no longer prop up the market by lowering interest rates. Real rates, which were about 4% before the global financial crisis, are now below zero almost everywhere.\nThe Biden administration is expected to unleash a blue wave of stimulus and other spending. This comes at a time when the revenue base is eroding, and the U.S. is no longer in a sound fiscal position. It is only a matter of time until government struggles to efficiently borrow against a gaping deficit and compounding debt. In 2020 alone, the U.S. government spent $3 trillion on pandemic relief while suffering a $2.1 trilliondecline in national incomefrom crippling lockdowns in our most economically important states, many of which continue today. By the end of fiscal 2020, total U.S. governmentdebtwas $27 trillion, up 20% from 2019 and triple the amount prior to the financial crisis. The Fed has absorbed a lot of this increase. Bond investors are rightly nervous.\nIt is no surprise that the Fed has since adopted apro-inflation stance. An unspoken objective is to erode the topsoil from the mountain of U.S. debt at the expense of Americans. Inflation is a hidden tax that will eat away our purchasing power. Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff remind us inThis Time is Differentthat throughout history, “the main device for defaulting on government obligations was… debasing the content of coinage. Modern currency presses are just a technologically advanced and more efficient approach to achieving the same end.” They note, “government debt is… often the unifying problem across the wide range of financial crises.”\nPrices are now rising in inflation bellwethers such as industrial metals, energy, and food commodities. The dollar haslost85% of its purchasing power since 1970. While a majority of this can be attributed to high inflation in the 1970s, even the supposedly deflationary 21st century has witnessed the erosion of one-third of the value of the dollar since 2000.\nRising inflation expectations go a long way in explaining the vertiginous ascent of the equity markets in the face of a partially closed economy with muted growth. As lockdowns and travel restrictions ease, pent-up demand will pressure global supply chains and thus prices. We can expect to see a further acceleration of inflation as early as this spring as economies reopen.\nWhere can one thrive, or at least hide, in this environment? U.S. equity markets are vastly overvalued by any historic measure, but bonds and cash are both danger zones in inflation. While conventional wisdom says to stay invested, it may be a good time to take some chips off of the table. Resist “FOMO,” the fear of missing out. If one has to stay invested, avoid the temptation of high-flying tech and growth equities, which are the most overvalued, in favor of diversifying among recently abandoned dividend-paying value stocks and emerging markets. Inflation-sensitive commodity (food, metals, and energy) producers should perform going forward. Gold has a millennia-long history of serving as a store of value and inflationary hedge, but pays no dividends along the way.\nBitcoin similarly earns no yield. Cryptocurrencies have no intrinsic value, and, like fiat currencies, are worth whatever the market happens to believe. When the euphoria wears off, they may be hit hard. Besides, Bitcoin is a stacked game easily manipulated given the high concentration ofownershipby whales.\nWatch out for gearing in investments, whether in securities or real estate. If markets collapse, leverage will rapidly eat into the remaining value. Look for hidden exposure to risk (including inflation) in retirement accounts. Invest in hard assets not correlated to the markets. Stay liquid to exploit the inevitable correction.\nWe need to increase the pressure on our elected officials to cut the pork and reopen our economies. Americans want to get back to work. So-called stimulus funding is not getting into the hands of those who need it most. Ultimately, it’s the real economy, not financial markets, that drive growth and prosperity. That requires local businesses open, workers re-engaged, and productive capital investments made.\nThis is not doom and gloom. Since the problem is not a banking-sector credit crisis, and the underlying economy remains healthy (albeit weakened), postcorrection recovery may come more quickly and easily than following the financial crisis. While persistent inflation can create a host of problems, it usually supports fuller employment, and both producers and consumers will adapt to a changing price environment. In the meantime, it may be best to stay liquid and wait this one out. As spring follows even the darkest winter, the opportune time will come again.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2613,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":389874728,"gmtCreate":1612757352464,"gmtModify":1703764660361,"author":{"id":"3574943968736312","authorId":"3574943968736312","name":"Dendenislit","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8650796e48e17621c226e2bfd4ca39a4","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574943968736312","idStr":"3574943968736312"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Okay!","listText":"Okay!","text":"Okay!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/389874728","repostId":"2108336760","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2755,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":389952801,"gmtCreate":1612670664503,"gmtModify":1703764212376,"author":{"id":"3574943968736312","authorId":"3574943968736312","name":"Dendenislit","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8650796e48e17621c226e2bfd4ca39a4","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574943968736312","idStr":"3574943968736312"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"The only Sti I love is the Subaru ones&nbsp;","listText":"The only Sti I love is the Subaru ones&nbsp;","text":"The only Sti I love is the Subaru ones","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/389952801","repostId":"2109727286","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1895,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":389956401,"gmtCreate":1612670586603,"gmtModify":1703764211687,"author":{"id":"3574943968736312","authorId":"3574943968736312","name":"Dendenislit","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8650796e48e17621c226e2bfd4ca39a4","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574943968736312","idStr":"3574943968736312"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Stop the $rope","listText":"Stop the $rope","text":"Stop the $rope","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/389956401","repostId":"2109670511","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1494,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":380700010,"gmtCreate":1612582264230,"gmtModify":1703763832969,"author":{"id":"3574943968736312","authorId":"3574943968736312","name":"Dendenislit","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8650796e48e17621c226e2bfd4ca39a4","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574943968736312","idStr":"3574943968736312"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Rip","listText":"Rip","text":"Rip","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/380700010","repostId":"2109722637","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2973,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":380398814,"gmtCreate":1612512875738,"gmtModify":1703762899099,"author":{"id":"3574943968736312","authorId":"3574943968736312","name":"Dendenislit","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8650796e48e17621c226e2bfd4ca39a4","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574943968736312","idStr":"3574943968736312"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Cny canceled lah, which means,&nbsp;I won’t have to spend so much on&nbsp;new clothes for my wife, sorry retail sector![龇牙]&nbsp;","listText":"Cny canceled lah, which means,&nbsp;I won’t have to spend so much on&nbsp;new clothes for my wife, sorry retail sector![龇牙]&nbsp;","text":"Cny canceled lah, which means, I won’t have to spend so much on new clothes for my wife, sorry retail sector![龇牙]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/380398814","repostId":"2109726787","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1232,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":317432271,"gmtCreate":1612465643293,"gmtModify":1703762355990,"author":{"id":"3574943968736312","authorId":"3574943968736312","name":"Dendenislit","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8650796e48e17621c226e2bfd4ca39a4","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574943968736312","idStr":"3574943968736312"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Maybe this isn’t a meme stock after all&nbsp;","listText":"Maybe this isn’t a meme stock after all&nbsp;","text":"Maybe this isn’t a meme stock after all","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/317432271","repostId":"1162866028","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":313,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":317436222,"gmtCreate":1612465490466,"gmtModify":1703762353927,"author":{"id":"3574943968736312","authorId":"3574943968736312","name":"Dendenislit","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8650796e48e17621c226e2bfd4ca39a4","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574943968736312","idStr":"3574943968736312"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"What does the community think about pot stocks ?&nbsp;","listText":"What does the community think about pot stocks ?&nbsp;","text":"What does the community think about pot stocks ?","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e5d718966036ce436e095ba0e3a53745","width":"750","height":"2294"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/317436222","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":504,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":317436974,"gmtCreate":1612465404798,"gmtModify":1703762353755,"author":{"id":"3574943968736312","authorId":"3574943968736312","name":"Dendenislit","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8650796e48e17621c226e2bfd4ca39a4","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574943968736312","idStr":"3574943968736312"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice&nbsp;","listText":"Nice&nbsp;","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/317436974","repostId":"1180680925","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":735,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":317436974,"gmtCreate":1612465404798,"gmtModify":1703762353755,"author":{"id":"3574943968736312","authorId":"3574943968736312","name":"Dendenislit","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8650796e48e17621c226e2bfd4ca39a4","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574943968736312","idStr":"3574943968736312"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice&nbsp;","listText":"Nice&nbsp;","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/317436974","repostId":"1180680925","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":735,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":136253893,"gmtCreate":1622022656012,"gmtModify":1631887107330,"author":{"id":"3574943968736312","authorId":"3574943968736312","name":"Dendenislit","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8650796e48e17621c226e2bfd4ca39a4","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574943968736312","idStr":"3574943968736312"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ARKK\">$ARK Innovation ETF(ARKK)$</a>Thanks Aunty Cathy&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ARKK\">$ARK Innovation ETF(ARKK)$</a>Thanks Aunty Cathy&nbsp;","text":"$ARK Innovation ETF(ARKK)$Thanks Aunty Cathy","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9188ebb7857240ea98e2e80706d63f29","width":"750","height":"1068"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/136253893","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2734,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":383977346,"gmtCreate":1612834280585,"gmtModify":1703765620980,"author":{"id":"3574943968736312","authorId":"3574943968736312","name":"Dendenislit","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8650796e48e17621c226e2bfd4ca39a4","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574943968736312","idStr":"3574943968736312"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Please like!","listText":"Please like!","text":"Please like!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/383977346","repostId":"1195153829","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1195153829","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1612781502,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1195153829?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-02-08 18:51","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Here’s What the GameStop Affair Has Taught Us<blockquote>以下是游戏驿站事件教给我们的</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1195153829","media":"Barrons","summary":"This commentary was issued recently by money managers, research firms, and market newsletter writers","content":"<p><i>This commentary was issued recently by money managers, research firms, and market newsletter writers and has been edited by Barron’s.</i></p><p><blockquote><i>这篇评论最近由基金经理、研究公司和市场时事通讯作者发表，并由《巴伦周刊》编辑。</i></blockquote></p><p> What GameStop Taught Us</p><p><blockquote>游戏驿站教给我们的</blockquote></p><p> <i>The Weekly Speculator</i></p><p><blockquote><i>每周投机者</i></blockquote></p><p> <i>Marketfield Asset Management</i></p><p><blockquote><i>Marketfield资产管理</i></blockquote></p><p> marketfield.com</p><p><blockquote>marketfield.com</blockquote></p><p> Feb. 4: After all is said and done, one of the most lasting effects of theGameStop(ticker: GME) episode will be to educate many market participants about the key role and ultimate power held by the clearing institution, the Depository Trust Company. One of the stranger aspects of the affair has been the attempt to paint it as some form of moral crusade, or an opportunity for the “little guy” to get even with Wall Street. The truth is that some large investors lost a great deal of money, while others were well rewarded, just as some small investors will have reaped life-changing sums while others will have lost funds that may prove to be equally impactful. In this sense, the market is a meritocracy, which isn’t quite the same as saying that it is always fair in delivering outcomes.</p><p><blockquote>2月4日：总而言之，GameStop（股票代码：GME）事件最持久的影响之一将是让许多市场参与者了解清算机构存款信托公司所扮演的关键角色和最终权力。这件事更奇怪的一面是，有人试图将其描绘成某种形式的道德讨伐，或者是“小人物”报复华尔街的机会。事实是，一些大投资者损失了大量资金，而另一些投资者则获得了丰厚的回报，就像一些小投资者将获得改变生活的资金，而另一些投资者将损失可能同样具有影响力的资金一样。从这个意义上说，市场是一个精英统治，这并不等同于说它在提供结果方面总是公平的。</blockquote></p><p> What is also clear is that late January saw a very significant degrossing of levered hedge-fund investors, without causing a deep correction in the equity market. The S&amp;P 500 essentially respected support at the 50-day moving average, and didn’t need to move down to 3600, which we had set as a “worst case” target. The Nasdaq 100, Russell 2000, and MSCI Emerging Markets Index didn’t need to touch their corresponding trend support, and all three indexes managed to generate a positive return in January, unlike the S&amp;P 500, which registered a small loss. The subsequent bounce has been rapid and broad, as would be expected from a catalyst that was both technical and ephemeral in nature.</p><p><blockquote>同样清楚的是，1月下旬，杠杆对冲基金投资者的资金大幅减少，但并未导致股市大幅调整。标普500基本上尊重50日均线的支撑，不需要跌至我们设定的“最坏情况”目标3600点。纳斯达克100指数、Russell 2000指数和MSCI新兴市场指数不需要触及相应的趋势支撑，这三个指数在1月份都成功产生了正回报，不像标普500出现了小幅亏损。随后的反弹迅速而广泛，正如技术性和短暂性催化剂所预期的那样。</blockquote></p><p> That it is not a wholly positive or inconsequential affair. The long bull market is now showing signs of developing into a historic mania. This doesn’t mean that a market peak is imminent, but the normative process—whereby what is “appropriate” is ultimately influenced by extremes—means that the levels of risk being taken by the average investor are probably significantly higher than they were pre-Covid.</p><p><blockquote>这不是一件完全积极或无关紧要的事情。漫长的牛市现在有发展成历史性狂热的迹象。这并不意味着市场峰值即将到来，但规范过程——什么是“适当的”最终会受到极端情况的影响——意味着普通投资者承担的风险水平可能明显高于Covid之前。</blockquote></p><p> —Michael Shaoul, Timothy Brackett</p><p><blockquote>——迈克尔·绍尔、蒂莫西·布莱凯特</blockquote></p><p> Heigh-Ho Silver!</p><p><blockquote>嗨-嗬银！</blockquote></p><p> <i>The Aden Forecast Weekly Update</i></p><p><blockquote><i>亚丁天气预报每周更新</i></blockquote></p><p> <i>The Aden Forecast</i></p><p><blockquote><i>亚丁天气预报</i></blockquote></p><p> adenforecast.com</p><p><blockquote>adenforecast.com</blockquote></p><p> Feb. 4: Silver caught on fire by zipping up to the August highs near $30 on Monday during the Reddit buying frenzy. Silver was strong anyway, and it’s been holding up well, so whoever pegged silver knew what they were doing. Silver shares also got a big boost upward, and while they have since calmed down, it looks like volatility will stay with us. Silver has been holding above its 15-week moving average since December, and it’ll remain strong by staying above it at $25. The next milestone to surpass is the $30 level, the highs for this bull market. If clearly broken, another leg up will be underway. Keep your silver and silver share positions.</p><p><blockquote>2月4日：周一，在Reddit的购买狂潮中，白银飙升至接近30美元的8月份高点。无论如何，白银都很坚挺，而且一直保持良好，所以无论谁盯住白银，都知道他们在做什么。白银股也大幅上涨，虽然此后有所平静，但波动性似乎仍将持续。自12月以来，白银一直保持在15周移动平均线上方，并将保持在25美元上方。下一个要超越的里程碑是30美元水平，这是本轮牛市的高点。如果明显被打破，另一条腿将会上升。保持你的白银和白银份额头寸。</blockquote></p><p> —Mary Anne and Pamela Aden</p><p><blockquote>——玛丽·安妮和帕梅拉·亚丁</blockquote></p><p> How to Play Oil’s Recent Rally</p><p><blockquote>如何玩转石油近期的反弹</blockquote></p><p> <i>Daily Insights</i></p><p><blockquote><i>每日洞察</i></blockquote></p><p> <i>BCA Research</i></p><p><blockquote><i>BCA研究</i></blockquote></p><p> <i>bcaresearch.com</i></p><p><blockquote><i>bcaresearch.com</i></blockquote></p><p> Feb 4: The recent oil rally will have consequences for asset prices beyond the energy market. While higher oil prices benefit oil exporters, they hurt the economies of oil importers, often with a lag.</p><p><blockquote>2月4日：最近的油价上涨将对能源市场以外的资产价格产生影响。虽然油价上涨有利于石油出口国，但也损害了石油进口国的经济，而且往往有滞后性。</blockquote></p><p> A great example of these dynamics is China. The Chinese economy is a large oil importer; hence, rising oil prices act as a tax on Chinese growth. Moreover, Chinese A shares massively overweight tech stocks, which receive no benefit from higher energy prices. In fact, over the past four years, increasing Brent prices reliably lead to a decline in on-shore domestic markets by roughly three months. The current setup is reminiscent of early 2018. Back then, Chinese A shares had been rallying for a few months after oil prices had started to rally. Ultimately, a deceleration in Chinese growth and cautious policy making from Beijing resulted in a powerful selloff of Chinese equities. Today, Chinese growth is once again decelerating and Beijing is conducting some significant regulatory tightening, while the People’s Bank of China is draining liquidity. Thus, a significant correction in Chinese shares is likely this spring.</p><p><blockquote>这些动态的一个很好的例子是中国。中国经济是石油进口大国；因此，油价上涨是对中国经济增长的一种征税。此外，中国A股大量持有跑赢大盘科技股，这些股没有从能源价格上涨中受益。事实上，在过去四年中，布伦特原油价格上涨确实会导致国内市场在岸价格下跌约三个月。目前的设置让人想起2018年初。当时，在油价开始上涨后，中国A股已经上涨了几个月。最终，中国经济增长放缓和北京谨慎的政策制定导致了中国股市的大幅抛售。如今，中国经济增长再次减速，北京正在进行一些重大监管收紧，而中国人民银行正在抽干流动性。因此，今年春天中国股市可能会出现大幅调整。</blockquote></p><p> A lower-octane strategy to play these dynamics is to go long United Kingdom equities relative to Germany’s while espousing the implicit currency exposure. German equities are extremely underweight energy, and Germany imports its entire oil consumption. Meanwhile, the U.K. benchmark is replete with energy stocks and the U.K. remains an oil producer, even if it imports some of its oil (rising Brent represents a comparatively smaller tax on the U.K. economy). As a side benefit, the pound is very cheap against the euro and the U.K.’s vaccination campaign is massively ahead of the eurozone’s, which could result in earlier economic dividends north of the Channel and hurt the euro/pound in the process.</p><p><blockquote>利用这些动态的低辛烷值策略是相对于德国股市做多英国股市，同时支持隐性货币敞口。德国股票非常跑输大盘能源，德国的石油消费全部进口。与此同时，英国基准充满了能源股，英国仍然是石油生产国，即使它进口部分石油（布伦特原油价格上涨对英国经济的税收相对较小）。作为一个附带好处，英镑兑欧元非常便宜，而且英国的疫苗接种活动远远领先于欧元区，这可能会导致英吉利海峡以北更早的经济红利，并在此过程中损害欧元/英镑。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> —Mathieu Savary and Team</p><p><blockquote>——Mathieu Savary和团队</blockquote></p><p> High-Yield Opportunities</p><p><blockquote>高收益机会</blockquote></p><p> <i>Carret Credit Insight</i></p><p><blockquote><i>Carret信用洞察</i></blockquote></p><p> <i>Carret Asset Mangaement</i></p><p><blockquote><i>Carret资产管理</i></blockquote></p><p> carret.com</p><p><blockquote>carret.com</blockquote></p><p> Feb. 3: At year-end 2020, the iBoxx High-Yield Index yielded 4.23%, an all-time low. Spreads also registered record tightness. Low yields aren’t a surprise as investors globally reach for income. The Federal Reserve has backstopped the “fallen angels,” allowing many high-yield (HY) companies to refinance at ever-lower rates and extend upcoming maturities for another day. Strong equity markets are forecasting an earnings rebound, and the vaccines will bring brighter days soon. We continue to find attractive values in the short/intermediate portion of the high-quality HY market.</p><p><blockquote>2月3日：2020年底，iBoxx高收益指数收益率为4.23%，创历史新低。利差也创下历史新高。随着全球投资者寻求收入，低收益率并不令人意外。美联储支持“堕落天使”，允许许多高收益（HY）公司以更低的利率进行再融资，并将即将到期的期限延长一天。强劲的股市预测盈利将反弹，疫苗将很快带来光明的日子。我们继续在高质量HY市场的短期/中期部分发现有吸引力的价值。</blockquote></p><p> We want to share a recent academic study with you regarding the risk and returns in the HY bond market: George Mason Universityrecently publisheda report on HY bond-fund returns and volatility relative to equities (S&amp;P 500). Since 1990, the average HY bond fund has delivered average annualized returns of 7.1% with a volatility of 7.7%. Over the same time period, the S&amp;P 500 delivered an average annualized return of 7.8%, but with almost double the volatility of 14.5%. The conclusion: HY bonds have paid total returns near those of the U.S. stock market with half of the volatility. We believe the HY market will offer competitive returns in the decade ahead, as equity valuations have risen and Treasury yields have plummeted. Our ability to utilize busted convertibles, preferreds, and special-situation income investments enhances our cash-flow opportunities.</p><p><blockquote>我们想与您分享一项关于HY债券市场风险和回报的最新学术研究：George Mason University最近发布了一份关于HY债券基金回报和相对于股票波动性的报告（标普500）。自1990年以来，HY债券基金的平均年化回报率为7.1%，波动率为7.7%。同期，标普500的平均年化回报率为7.8%，但波动性几乎是14.5%的两倍。结论是：HY债券的总回报接近美国股市，而波动性只有美国股市的一半。我们相信，随着股票估值上升和国债收益率暴跌，HY市场将在未来十年提供有竞争力的回报。我们利用破产的可转换债券、优先股和特殊情况收入投资的能力增强了我们的现金流机会。</blockquote></p><p> —Jason R. Graybill, Neil D. Klein</p><p><blockquote>——杰森·R·格雷比尔、尼尔·D·克莱因</blockquote></p><p> Emerging Markets Blast Off</p><p><blockquote>新兴市场起飞</blockquote></p><p> <i>PCM Report</i></p><p><blockquote><i>PCM报告</i></blockquote></p><p> <i>Peak Capital Management</i></p><p><blockquote><i>匹克资本管理</i></blockquote></p><p> pcmstrategies.com</p><p><blockquote>pcmstrategies.com</blockquote></p><p> Feb. 1: So far, 2021 has been a good year for emerging-market equities. Year to date, theiShares MSCI Emerging Marketsexchange-traded fund (EEM) is higher by roughly 8%, compared to a gain of approximately 3% for theSPDR S&amp;P 500ETF (SPY). Ever since the financial crisis of 2008, emerging markets collectively have woefully lagged U.S. equities.</p><p><blockquote>2月1日：到目前为止，2021年对新兴市场股市来说是好年景。今年迄今为止，iShares MSCI新兴市场交易所交易基金(EEM)上涨了约8%，而SPDR S&amp;P 500ETF（SPDR标普500指数ETF）的涨幅约为3%。自2008年金融危机以来，新兴市场整体表现严重落后于美国股市。</blockquote></p><p> What could propel the asset class higher in 20201 and beyond? In the long term, the likely catalyst is demographics. Developed markets such as the U.S. and Europe have aging populations, which could suggest lower productivity and gross-domestic-product growth over the next decade compared to emerging-market economies.</p><p><blockquote>什么可以推动该资产类别在20201年及以后走高？从长远来看，可能的催化剂是人口统计。美国和欧洲等发达市场人口老龄化，这可能意味着与新兴市场经济体相比，未来十年的生产率和国内生产总值增长可能会较低。</blockquote></p><p> In its most recent capital-markets report, JPMorgan projected GDP growth across emerging markets to be 3.9% in 2021, compared to 1.6% across developed markets. The report suggests China and India will drive GDP growth, and emerging markets’ productivity and human capital will gradually converge to developed-market levels.</p><p><blockquote>摩根大通在其最新的资本市场报告中预计，2021年新兴市场的GDP增长率为3.9%，而发达市场为1.6%。报告显示，中国和印度将推动GDP增长，新兴市场的生产率和人力资本将逐渐向发达市场水平趋同。</blockquote></p><p> —Clint Pekrul</p><p><blockquote>-克林特·佩克鲁尔</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Here’s What the GameStop Affair Has Taught Us<blockquote>以下是游戏驿站事件教给我们的</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHere’s What the GameStop Affair Has Taught Us<blockquote>以下是游戏驿站事件教给我们的</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Barrons</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-02-08 18:51</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><i>This commentary was issued recently by money managers, research firms, and market newsletter writers and has been edited by Barron’s.</i></p><p><blockquote><i>这篇评论最近由基金经理、研究公司和市场时事通讯作者发表，并由《巴伦周刊》编辑。</i></blockquote></p><p> What GameStop Taught Us</p><p><blockquote>游戏驿站教给我们的</blockquote></p><p> <i>The Weekly Speculator</i></p><p><blockquote><i>每周投机者</i></blockquote></p><p> <i>Marketfield Asset Management</i></p><p><blockquote><i>Marketfield资产管理</i></blockquote></p><p> marketfield.com</p><p><blockquote>marketfield.com</blockquote></p><p> Feb. 4: After all is said and done, one of the most lasting effects of theGameStop(ticker: GME) episode will be to educate many market participants about the key role and ultimate power held by the clearing institution, the Depository Trust Company. One of the stranger aspects of the affair has been the attempt to paint it as some form of moral crusade, or an opportunity for the “little guy” to get even with Wall Street. The truth is that some large investors lost a great deal of money, while others were well rewarded, just as some small investors will have reaped life-changing sums while others will have lost funds that may prove to be equally impactful. In this sense, the market is a meritocracy, which isn’t quite the same as saying that it is always fair in delivering outcomes.</p><p><blockquote>2月4日：总而言之，GameStop（股票代码：GME）事件最持久的影响之一将是让许多市场参与者了解清算机构存款信托公司所扮演的关键角色和最终权力。这件事更奇怪的一面是，有人试图将其描绘成某种形式的道德讨伐，或者是“小人物”报复华尔街的机会。事实是，一些大投资者损失了大量资金，而另一些投资者则获得了丰厚的回报，就像一些小投资者将获得改变生活的资金，而另一些投资者将损失可能同样具有影响力的资金一样。从这个意义上说，市场是一个精英统治，这并不等同于说它在提供结果方面总是公平的。</blockquote></p><p> What is also clear is that late January saw a very significant degrossing of levered hedge-fund investors, without causing a deep correction in the equity market. The S&amp;P 500 essentially respected support at the 50-day moving average, and didn’t need to move down to 3600, which we had set as a “worst case” target. The Nasdaq 100, Russell 2000, and MSCI Emerging Markets Index didn’t need to touch their corresponding trend support, and all three indexes managed to generate a positive return in January, unlike the S&amp;P 500, which registered a small loss. The subsequent bounce has been rapid and broad, as would be expected from a catalyst that was both technical and ephemeral in nature.</p><p><blockquote>同样清楚的是，1月下旬，杠杆对冲基金投资者的资金大幅减少，但并未导致股市大幅调整。标普500基本上尊重50日均线的支撑，不需要跌至我们设定的“最坏情况”目标3600点。纳斯达克100指数、Russell 2000指数和MSCI新兴市场指数不需要触及相应的趋势支撑，这三个指数在1月份都成功产生了正回报，不像标普500出现了小幅亏损。随后的反弹迅速而广泛，正如技术性和短暂性催化剂所预期的那样。</blockquote></p><p> That it is not a wholly positive or inconsequential affair. The long bull market is now showing signs of developing into a historic mania. This doesn’t mean that a market peak is imminent, but the normative process—whereby what is “appropriate” is ultimately influenced by extremes—means that the levels of risk being taken by the average investor are probably significantly higher than they were pre-Covid.</p><p><blockquote>这不是一件完全积极或无关紧要的事情。漫长的牛市现在有发展成历史性狂热的迹象。这并不意味着市场峰值即将到来，但规范过程——什么是“适当的”最终会受到极端情况的影响——意味着普通投资者承担的风险水平可能明显高于Covid之前。</blockquote></p><p> —Michael Shaoul, Timothy Brackett</p><p><blockquote>——迈克尔·绍尔、蒂莫西·布莱凯特</blockquote></p><p> Heigh-Ho Silver!</p><p><blockquote>嗨-嗬银！</blockquote></p><p> <i>The Aden Forecast Weekly Update</i></p><p><blockquote><i>亚丁天气预报每周更新</i></blockquote></p><p> <i>The Aden Forecast</i></p><p><blockquote><i>亚丁天气预报</i></blockquote></p><p> adenforecast.com</p><p><blockquote>adenforecast.com</blockquote></p><p> Feb. 4: Silver caught on fire by zipping up to the August highs near $30 on Monday during the Reddit buying frenzy. Silver was strong anyway, and it’s been holding up well, so whoever pegged silver knew what they were doing. Silver shares also got a big boost upward, and while they have since calmed down, it looks like volatility will stay with us. Silver has been holding above its 15-week moving average since December, and it’ll remain strong by staying above it at $25. The next milestone to surpass is the $30 level, the highs for this bull market. If clearly broken, another leg up will be underway. Keep your silver and silver share positions.</p><p><blockquote>2月4日：周一，在Reddit的购买狂潮中，白银飙升至接近30美元的8月份高点。无论如何，白银都很坚挺，而且一直保持良好，所以无论谁盯住白银，都知道他们在做什么。白银股也大幅上涨，虽然此后有所平静，但波动性似乎仍将持续。自12月以来，白银一直保持在15周移动平均线上方，并将保持在25美元上方。下一个要超越的里程碑是30美元水平，这是本轮牛市的高点。如果明显被打破，另一条腿将会上升。保持你的白银和白银份额头寸。</blockquote></p><p> —Mary Anne and Pamela Aden</p><p><blockquote>——玛丽·安妮和帕梅拉·亚丁</blockquote></p><p> How to Play Oil’s Recent Rally</p><p><blockquote>如何玩转石油近期的反弹</blockquote></p><p> <i>Daily Insights</i></p><p><blockquote><i>每日洞察</i></blockquote></p><p> <i>BCA Research</i></p><p><blockquote><i>BCA研究</i></blockquote></p><p> <i>bcaresearch.com</i></p><p><blockquote><i>bcaresearch.com</i></blockquote></p><p> Feb 4: The recent oil rally will have consequences for asset prices beyond the energy market. While higher oil prices benefit oil exporters, they hurt the economies of oil importers, often with a lag.</p><p><blockquote>2月4日：最近的油价上涨将对能源市场以外的资产价格产生影响。虽然油价上涨有利于石油出口国，但也损害了石油进口国的经济，而且往往有滞后性。</blockquote></p><p> A great example of these dynamics is China. The Chinese economy is a large oil importer; hence, rising oil prices act as a tax on Chinese growth. Moreover, Chinese A shares massively overweight tech stocks, which receive no benefit from higher energy prices. In fact, over the past four years, increasing Brent prices reliably lead to a decline in on-shore domestic markets by roughly three months. The current setup is reminiscent of early 2018. Back then, Chinese A shares had been rallying for a few months after oil prices had started to rally. Ultimately, a deceleration in Chinese growth and cautious policy making from Beijing resulted in a powerful selloff of Chinese equities. Today, Chinese growth is once again decelerating and Beijing is conducting some significant regulatory tightening, while the People’s Bank of China is draining liquidity. Thus, a significant correction in Chinese shares is likely this spring.</p><p><blockquote>这些动态的一个很好的例子是中国。中国经济是石油进口大国；因此，油价上涨是对中国经济增长的一种征税。此外，中国A股大量持有跑赢大盘科技股，这些股没有从能源价格上涨中受益。事实上，在过去四年中，布伦特原油价格上涨确实会导致国内市场在岸价格下跌约三个月。目前的设置让人想起2018年初。当时，在油价开始上涨后，中国A股已经上涨了几个月。最终，中国经济增长放缓和北京谨慎的政策制定导致了中国股市的大幅抛售。如今，中国经济增长再次减速，北京正在进行一些重大监管收紧，而中国人民银行正在抽干流动性。因此，今年春天中国股市可能会出现大幅调整。</blockquote></p><p> A lower-octane strategy to play these dynamics is to go long United Kingdom equities relative to Germany’s while espousing the implicit currency exposure. German equities are extremely underweight energy, and Germany imports its entire oil consumption. Meanwhile, the U.K. benchmark is replete with energy stocks and the U.K. remains an oil producer, even if it imports some of its oil (rising Brent represents a comparatively smaller tax on the U.K. economy). As a side benefit, the pound is very cheap against the euro and the U.K.’s vaccination campaign is massively ahead of the eurozone’s, which could result in earlier economic dividends north of the Channel and hurt the euro/pound in the process.</p><p><blockquote>利用这些动态的低辛烷值策略是相对于德国股市做多英国股市，同时支持隐性货币敞口。德国股票非常跑输大盘能源，德国的石油消费全部进口。与此同时，英国基准充满了能源股，英国仍然是石油生产国，即使它进口部分石油（布伦特原油价格上涨对英国经济的税收相对较小）。作为一个附带好处，英镑兑欧元非常便宜，而且英国的疫苗接种活动远远领先于欧元区，这可能会导致英吉利海峡以北更早的经济红利，并在此过程中损害欧元/英镑。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> —Mathieu Savary and Team</p><p><blockquote>——Mathieu Savary和团队</blockquote></p><p> High-Yield Opportunities</p><p><blockquote>高收益机会</blockquote></p><p> <i>Carret Credit Insight</i></p><p><blockquote><i>Carret信用洞察</i></blockquote></p><p> <i>Carret Asset Mangaement</i></p><p><blockquote><i>Carret资产管理</i></blockquote></p><p> carret.com</p><p><blockquote>carret.com</blockquote></p><p> Feb. 3: At year-end 2020, the iBoxx High-Yield Index yielded 4.23%, an all-time low. Spreads also registered record tightness. Low yields aren’t a surprise as investors globally reach for income. The Federal Reserve has backstopped the “fallen angels,” allowing many high-yield (HY) companies to refinance at ever-lower rates and extend upcoming maturities for another day. Strong equity markets are forecasting an earnings rebound, and the vaccines will bring brighter days soon. We continue to find attractive values in the short/intermediate portion of the high-quality HY market.</p><p><blockquote>2月3日：2020年底，iBoxx高收益指数收益率为4.23%，创历史新低。利差也创下历史新高。随着全球投资者寻求收入，低收益率并不令人意外。美联储支持“堕落天使”，允许许多高收益（HY）公司以更低的利率进行再融资，并将即将到期的期限延长一天。强劲的股市预测盈利将反弹，疫苗将很快带来光明的日子。我们继续在高质量HY市场的短期/中期部分发现有吸引力的价值。</blockquote></p><p> We want to share a recent academic study with you regarding the risk and returns in the HY bond market: George Mason Universityrecently publisheda report on HY bond-fund returns and volatility relative to equities (S&amp;P 500). Since 1990, the average HY bond fund has delivered average annualized returns of 7.1% with a volatility of 7.7%. Over the same time period, the S&amp;P 500 delivered an average annualized return of 7.8%, but with almost double the volatility of 14.5%. The conclusion: HY bonds have paid total returns near those of the U.S. stock market with half of the volatility. We believe the HY market will offer competitive returns in the decade ahead, as equity valuations have risen and Treasury yields have plummeted. Our ability to utilize busted convertibles, preferreds, and special-situation income investments enhances our cash-flow opportunities.</p><p><blockquote>我们想与您分享一项关于HY债券市场风险和回报的最新学术研究：George Mason University最近发布了一份关于HY债券基金回报和相对于股票波动性的报告（标普500）。自1990年以来，HY债券基金的平均年化回报率为7.1%，波动率为7.7%。同期，标普500的平均年化回报率为7.8%，但波动性几乎是14.5%的两倍。结论是：HY债券的总回报接近美国股市，而波动性只有美国股市的一半。我们相信，随着股票估值上升和国债收益率暴跌，HY市场将在未来十年提供有竞争力的回报。我们利用破产的可转换债券、优先股和特殊情况收入投资的能力增强了我们的现金流机会。</blockquote></p><p> —Jason R. Graybill, Neil D. Klein</p><p><blockquote>——杰森·R·格雷比尔、尼尔·D·克莱因</blockquote></p><p> Emerging Markets Blast Off</p><p><blockquote>新兴市场起飞</blockquote></p><p> <i>PCM Report</i></p><p><blockquote><i>PCM报告</i></blockquote></p><p> <i>Peak Capital Management</i></p><p><blockquote><i>匹克资本管理</i></blockquote></p><p> pcmstrategies.com</p><p><blockquote>pcmstrategies.com</blockquote></p><p> Feb. 1: So far, 2021 has been a good year for emerging-market equities. Year to date, theiShares MSCI Emerging Marketsexchange-traded fund (EEM) is higher by roughly 8%, compared to a gain of approximately 3% for theSPDR S&amp;P 500ETF (SPY). Ever since the financial crisis of 2008, emerging markets collectively have woefully lagged U.S. equities.</p><p><blockquote>2月1日：到目前为止，2021年对新兴市场股市来说是好年景。今年迄今为止，iShares MSCI新兴市场交易所交易基金(EEM)上涨了约8%，而SPDR S&amp;P 500ETF（SPDR标普500指数ETF）的涨幅约为3%。自2008年金融危机以来，新兴市场整体表现严重落后于美国股市。</blockquote></p><p> What could propel the asset class higher in 20201 and beyond? In the long term, the likely catalyst is demographics. Developed markets such as the U.S. and Europe have aging populations, which could suggest lower productivity and gross-domestic-product growth over the next decade compared to emerging-market economies.</p><p><blockquote>什么可以推动该资产类别在20201年及以后走高？从长远来看，可能的催化剂是人口统计。美国和欧洲等发达市场人口老龄化，这可能意味着与新兴市场经济体相比，未来十年的生产率和国内生产总值增长可能会较低。</blockquote></p><p> In its most recent capital-markets report, JPMorgan projected GDP growth across emerging markets to be 3.9% in 2021, compared to 1.6% across developed markets. The report suggests China and India will drive GDP growth, and emerging markets’ productivity and human capital will gradually converge to developed-market levels.</p><p><blockquote>摩根大通在其最新的资本市场报告中预计，2021年新兴市场的GDP增长率为3.9%，而发达市场为1.6%。报告显示，中国和印度将推动GDP增长，新兴市场的生产率和人力资本将逐渐向发达市场水平趋同。</blockquote></p><p> —Clint Pekrul</p><p><blockquote>-克林特·佩克鲁尔</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/gamestop-episode-offers-lessons-for-investors-51612572300?mod=RTA\">Barrons</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","GME":"游戏驿站",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/gamestop-episode-offers-lessons-for-investors-51612572300?mod=RTA","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1195153829","content_text":"This commentary was issued recently by money managers, research firms, and market newsletter writers and has been edited by Barron’s.\nWhat GameStop Taught Us\nThe Weekly Speculator\nMarketfield Asset Management\nmarketfield.com\nFeb. 4: After all is said and done, one of the most lasting effects of theGameStop(ticker: GME) episode will be to educate many market participants about the key role and ultimate power held by the clearing institution, the Depository Trust Company. One of the stranger aspects of the affair has been the attempt to paint it as some form of moral crusade, or an opportunity for the “little guy” to get even with Wall Street. The truth is that some large investors lost a great deal of money, while others were well rewarded, just as some small investors will have reaped life-changing sums while others will have lost funds that may prove to be equally impactful. In this sense, the market is a meritocracy, which isn’t quite the same as saying that it is always fair in delivering outcomes.\nWhat is also clear is that late January saw a very significant degrossing of levered hedge-fund investors, without causing a deep correction in the equity market. The S&P 500 essentially respected support at the 50-day moving average, and didn’t need to move down to 3600, which we had set as a “worst case” target. The Nasdaq 100, Russell 2000, and MSCI Emerging Markets Index didn’t need to touch their corresponding trend support, and all three indexes managed to generate a positive return in January, unlike the S&P 500, which registered a small loss. The subsequent bounce has been rapid and broad, as would be expected from a catalyst that was both technical and ephemeral in nature.\nThat it is not a wholly positive or inconsequential affair. The long bull market is now showing signs of developing into a historic mania. This doesn’t mean that a market peak is imminent, but the normative process—whereby what is “appropriate” is ultimately influenced by extremes—means that the levels of risk being taken by the average investor are probably significantly higher than they were pre-Covid.\n—Michael Shaoul, Timothy Brackett\nHeigh-Ho Silver!\nThe Aden Forecast Weekly Update\nThe Aden Forecast\nadenforecast.com\nFeb. 4: Silver caught on fire by zipping up to the August highs near $30 on Monday during the Reddit buying frenzy. Silver was strong anyway, and it’s been holding up well, so whoever pegged silver knew what they were doing. Silver shares also got a big boost upward, and while they have since calmed down, it looks like volatility will stay with us. Silver has been holding above its 15-week moving average since December, and it’ll remain strong by staying above it at $25. The next milestone to surpass is the $30 level, the highs for this bull market. If clearly broken, another leg up will be underway. Keep your silver and silver share positions.\n—Mary Anne and Pamela Aden\nHow to Play Oil’s Recent Rally\nDaily Insights\nBCA Research\nbcaresearch.com\nFeb 4: The recent oil rally will have consequences for asset prices beyond the energy market. While higher oil prices benefit oil exporters, they hurt the economies of oil importers, often with a lag.\nA great example of these dynamics is China. The Chinese economy is a large oil importer; hence, rising oil prices act as a tax on Chinese growth. Moreover, Chinese A shares massively overweight tech stocks, which receive no benefit from higher energy prices. In fact, over the past four years, increasing Brent prices reliably lead to a decline in on-shore domestic markets by roughly three months. The current setup is reminiscent of early 2018. Back then, Chinese A shares had been rallying for a few months after oil prices had started to rally. Ultimately, a deceleration in Chinese growth and cautious policy making from Beijing resulted in a powerful selloff of Chinese equities. Today, Chinese growth is once again decelerating and Beijing is conducting some significant regulatory tightening, while the People’s Bank of China is draining liquidity. Thus, a significant correction in Chinese shares is likely this spring.\nA lower-octane strategy to play these dynamics is to go long United Kingdom equities relative to Germany’s while espousing the implicit currency exposure. German equities are extremely underweight energy, and Germany imports its entire oil consumption. Meanwhile, the U.K. benchmark is replete with energy stocks and the U.K. remains an oil producer, even if it imports some of its oil (rising Brent represents a comparatively smaller tax on the U.K. economy). As a side benefit, the pound is very cheap against the euro and the U.K.’s vaccination campaign is massively ahead of the eurozone’s, which could result in earlier economic dividends north of the Channel and hurt the euro/pound in the process.\n—Mathieu Savary and Team\nHigh-Yield Opportunities\nCarret Credit Insight\nCarret Asset Mangaement\ncarret.com\nFeb. 3: At year-end 2020, the iBoxx High-Yield Index yielded 4.23%, an all-time low. Spreads also registered record tightness. Low yields aren’t a surprise as investors globally reach for income. The Federal Reserve has backstopped the “fallen angels,” allowing many high-yield (HY) companies to refinance at ever-lower rates and extend upcoming maturities for another day. Strong equity markets are forecasting an earnings rebound, and the vaccines will bring brighter days soon. We continue to find attractive values in the short/intermediate portion of the high-quality HY market.\nWe want to share a recent academic study with you regarding the risk and returns in the HY bond market: George Mason Universityrecently publisheda report on HY bond-fund returns and volatility relative to equities (S&P 500). Since 1990, the average HY bond fund has delivered average annualized returns of 7.1% with a volatility of 7.7%. Over the same time period, the S&P 500 delivered an average annualized return of 7.8%, but with almost double the volatility of 14.5%. The conclusion: HY bonds have paid total returns near those of the U.S. stock market with half of the volatility. We believe the HY market will offer competitive returns in the decade ahead, as equity valuations have risen and Treasury yields have plummeted. Our ability to utilize busted convertibles, preferreds, and special-situation income investments enhances our cash-flow opportunities.\n—Jason R. Graybill, Neil D. Klein\nEmerging Markets Blast Off\nPCM Report\nPeak Capital Management\npcmstrategies.com\nFeb. 1: So far, 2021 has been a good year for emerging-market equities. Year to date, theiShares MSCI Emerging Marketsexchange-traded fund (EEM) is higher by roughly 8%, compared to a gain of approximately 3% for theSPDR S&P 500ETF (SPY). Ever since the financial crisis of 2008, emerging markets collectively have woefully lagged U.S. equities.\nWhat could propel the asset class higher in 20201 and beyond? In the long term, the likely catalyst is demographics. Developed markets such as the U.S. and Europe have aging populations, which could suggest lower productivity and gross-domestic-product growth over the next decade compared to emerging-market economies.\nIn its most recent capital-markets report, JPMorgan projected GDP growth across emerging markets to be 3.9% in 2021, compared to 1.6% across developed markets. The report suggests China and India will drive GDP growth, and emerging markets’ productivity and human capital will gradually converge to developed-market levels.\n—Clint Pekrul","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"GME":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1420,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":389952801,"gmtCreate":1612670664503,"gmtModify":1703764212376,"author":{"id":"3574943968736312","authorId":"3574943968736312","name":"Dendenislit","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8650796e48e17621c226e2bfd4ca39a4","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574943968736312","idStr":"3574943968736312"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"The only Sti I love is the Subaru ones&nbsp;","listText":"The only Sti I love is the Subaru ones&nbsp;","text":"The only Sti I love is the Subaru ones","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/389952801","repostId":"2109727286","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1895,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":380700010,"gmtCreate":1612582264230,"gmtModify":1703763832969,"author":{"id":"3574943968736312","authorId":"3574943968736312","name":"Dendenislit","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8650796e48e17621c226e2bfd4ca39a4","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574943968736312","idStr":"3574943968736312"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Rip","listText":"Rip","text":"Rip","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/380700010","repostId":"2109722637","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2973,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":363060322,"gmtCreate":1614083701466,"gmtModify":1634551250172,"author":{"id":"3574943968736312","authorId":"3574943968736312","name":"Dendenislit","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8650796e48e17621c226e2bfd4ca39a4","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574943968736312","idStr":"3574943968736312"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Diamond hands&nbsp;","listText":"Diamond hands&nbsp;","text":"Diamond hands","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/363060322","repostId":"1116870824","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1116870824","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1614051228,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1116870824?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-02-23 11:33","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Are we in a bubble? How founder of world’s largest hedge fund says 2021 stock market stacks up<blockquote>我们是在泡沫中吗？全球最大对冲基金创始人如何评价2021年股市走势</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1116870824","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"Ray Dalio’s bubble indicator says the 2021 market ranks in the 77th percentile in his ‘bubble indica","content":"<p>Ray Dalio’s bubble indicator says the 2021 market ranks in the 77th percentile in his ‘bubble indicator’</p><p><blockquote>Ray Dalio的泡沫指标表示，2021年市场在他的“泡沫指标”中排名第77百分位</blockquote></p><p> The stock market is feeling awfully frothy to some investors lately, a fact that has helped to weigh on the market’s bullish sentiment in the past week or so, but a report by Ray Dalio implies that equities aren’t as bubblicious as one might think.</p><p><blockquote>最近，一些投资者感觉股市泡沫严重，这一事实在过去一周左右的时间里打压了市场的看涨情绪，但雷·达里奥(Ray Dalio)的一份报告暗示，股市并不像人们想象的那么泡沫。</blockquote></p><p> “In brief,&nbsp;the aggregate bubble gauge is around the 77th percentile today for the US stock market overall.&nbsp;In the bubble of 2000 and the bubble of 1929 this aggregate gauge had a 100th percentile read,” wrote Dalio in&nbsp;a blog post published on Monday on LinkedIn.</p><p><blockquote>达里奥在周一发表的一篇博客文章中写道：“简而言之，今天美国股市整体的总体泡沫指标约为第77百分位。在2000年的泡沫和1929年的泡沫中，这一总体指标的读数为第100百分位。”在LinkedIn上。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dab41b9c50d3b241dd38ad744ba96b22\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"597\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> RAY DALIO</p><p><blockquote>雷·达里奥</blockquote></p><p> Dalio is the founder of Bridgewater Associates, the world’s largest hedge-fund firm, which has made him a billionaire and comments consistent attention grabbers.</p><p><blockquote>达里奥是全球最大的对冲基金公司桥水基金的创始人，这使他成为亿万富翁，他的评论一直吸引着人们的注意力。</blockquote></p><p> The hedge-fund investor says that he created an indicator to help him determine whether the stock market is in a bubble, which he defines as an unsustainably high price, by using six measures:</p><p><blockquote>这位对冲基金投资者表示，他创建了一个指标，通过使用六项指标来帮助他确定股市是否处于泡沫中，他将泡沫定义为不可持续的高价：</blockquote></p><p> <ol>  <li>How high are prices relative to traditional measures?</li>  <li>Are prices discounting unsustainable conditions?</li>  <li>How many new buyers (i.e., those who weren’t previously in the market) have entered the market?</li>  <li>How broadly bullish is sentiment?</li>  <li>Are purchases being financed by high leverage?</li>  <li>Have buyers made exceptionally extended forward purchases (e.g., built inventory, contracted forward purchases, etc.) to speculate or protect themselves against future price gains?</li> </ol> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/45ffcb17a9670acba9a6816361da9fb0\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"301\"><span>VIA RAY DALIO</span></p><p><blockquote><ol><li>相对于传统措施，价格有多高？</li><li>价格是否低估了不可持续的条件？</li><li>有多少新买家（即那些以前不在市场上的人）进入了市场？</li><li>市场情绪有多乐观？</li><li>购买是否通过高杠杆融资？</li><li>买家是否进行了异常延长的远期购买（例如，建立库存、签订远期购买合同等。）来投机或保护自己免受未来价格上涨的影响？</li></ol><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>通过雷·达里奥</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Based on those factors, and using data that go back to the 1910s, Dalio’s indicator suggests that markets are frothy but not necessarily in a bubble by his definition.</p><p><blockquote>基于这些因素，并使用20世纪10年代的数据，达里奥的指标表明市场存在泡沫，但根据他的定义，不一定处于泡沫之中。</blockquote></p><p> Dalio’s note comes as stock-market investors are wrestling with rising bonds yields, with the 10-year Treasury note&nbsp;flirts with its highest level in about a year as investors brace for rising inflation and recovery in the economy that has been swooning from the COVID-19 pandemic.</p><p><blockquote>达里奥发表这份报告之际，股市投资者正在努力应对债券收益率上升的问题，10年期美国国债触及约一年来的最高水平，投资者正在为通胀上升和因COVID-19疫情而陷入困境的经济复苏做好准备。</blockquote></p><p> Fiscal spending and market-favorable policies have been factors that investors have argued have kept the Dow Jones Industrial Average,the S&amp;P 500 index&nbsp;and the Nasdaq Composite Index&nbsp;at or near record highs, despite valuations since as absurdly rich by some measures.</p><p><blockquote>投资者认为，财政支出和有利于市场的政策是道琼斯工业平均指数、标普500指数和纳斯达克综合指数保持在或接近历史高位的因素，尽管从某些指标来看，此后的估值高得离谱。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"market_watch","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Are we in a bubble? How founder of world’s largest hedge fund says 2021 stock market stacks up<blockquote>我们是在泡沫中吗？全球最大对冲基金创始人如何评价2021年股市走势</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAre we in a bubble? How founder of world’s largest hedge fund says 2021 stock market stacks up<blockquote>我们是在泡沫中吗？全球最大对冲基金创始人如何评价2021年股市走势</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">MarketWatch</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-02-23 11:33</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Ray Dalio’s bubble indicator says the 2021 market ranks in the 77th percentile in his ‘bubble indicator’</p><p><blockquote>Ray Dalio的泡沫指标表示，2021年市场在他的“泡沫指标”中排名第77百分位</blockquote></p><p> The stock market is feeling awfully frothy to some investors lately, a fact that has helped to weigh on the market’s bullish sentiment in the past week or so, but a report by Ray Dalio implies that equities aren’t as bubblicious as one might think.</p><p><blockquote>最近，一些投资者感觉股市泡沫严重，这一事实在过去一周左右的时间里打压了市场的看涨情绪，但雷·达里奥(Ray Dalio)的一份报告暗示，股市并不像人们想象的那么泡沫。</blockquote></p><p> “In brief,&nbsp;the aggregate bubble gauge is around the 77th percentile today for the US stock market overall.&nbsp;In the bubble of 2000 and the bubble of 1929 this aggregate gauge had a 100th percentile read,” wrote Dalio in&nbsp;a blog post published on Monday on LinkedIn.</p><p><blockquote>达里奥在周一发表的一篇博客文章中写道：“简而言之，今天美国股市整体的总体泡沫指标约为第77百分位。在2000年的泡沫和1929年的泡沫中，这一总体指标的读数为第100百分位。”在LinkedIn上。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dab41b9c50d3b241dd38ad744ba96b22\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"597\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> RAY DALIO</p><p><blockquote>雷·达里奥</blockquote></p><p> Dalio is the founder of Bridgewater Associates, the world’s largest hedge-fund firm, which has made him a billionaire and comments consistent attention grabbers.</p><p><blockquote>达里奥是全球最大的对冲基金公司桥水基金的创始人，这使他成为亿万富翁，他的评论一直吸引着人们的注意力。</blockquote></p><p> The hedge-fund investor says that he created an indicator to help him determine whether the stock market is in a bubble, which he defines as an unsustainably high price, by using six measures:</p><p><blockquote>这位对冲基金投资者表示，他创建了一个指标，通过使用六项指标来帮助他确定股市是否处于泡沫中，他将泡沫定义为不可持续的高价：</blockquote></p><p> <ol>  <li>How high are prices relative to traditional measures?</li>  <li>Are prices discounting unsustainable conditions?</li>  <li>How many new buyers (i.e., those who weren’t previously in the market) have entered the market?</li>  <li>How broadly bullish is sentiment?</li>  <li>Are purchases being financed by high leverage?</li>  <li>Have buyers made exceptionally extended forward purchases (e.g., built inventory, contracted forward purchases, etc.) to speculate or protect themselves against future price gains?</li> </ol> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/45ffcb17a9670acba9a6816361da9fb0\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"301\"><span>VIA RAY DALIO</span></p><p><blockquote><ol><li>相对于传统措施，价格有多高？</li><li>价格是否低估了不可持续的条件？</li><li>有多少新买家（即那些以前不在市场上的人）进入了市场？</li><li>市场情绪有多乐观？</li><li>购买是否通过高杠杆融资？</li><li>买家是否进行了异常延长的远期购买（例如，建立库存、签订远期购买合同等。）来投机或保护自己免受未来价格上涨的影响？</li></ol><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>通过雷·达里奥</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Based on those factors, and using data that go back to the 1910s, Dalio’s indicator suggests that markets are frothy but not necessarily in a bubble by his definition.</p><p><blockquote>基于这些因素，并使用20世纪10年代的数据，达里奥的指标表明市场存在泡沫，但根据他的定义，不一定处于泡沫之中。</blockquote></p><p> Dalio’s note comes as stock-market investors are wrestling with rising bonds yields, with the 10-year Treasury note&nbsp;flirts with its highest level in about a year as investors brace for rising inflation and recovery in the economy that has been swooning from the COVID-19 pandemic.</p><p><blockquote>达里奥发表这份报告之际，股市投资者正在努力应对债券收益率上升的问题，10年期美国国债触及约一年来的最高水平，投资者正在为通胀上升和因COVID-19疫情而陷入困境的经济复苏做好准备。</blockquote></p><p> Fiscal spending and market-favorable policies have been factors that investors have argued have kept the Dow Jones Industrial Average,the S&amp;P 500 index&nbsp;and the Nasdaq Composite Index&nbsp;at or near record highs, despite valuations since as absurdly rich by some measures.</p><p><blockquote>投资者认为，财政支出和有利于市场的政策是道琼斯工业平均指数、标普500指数和纳斯达克综合指数保持在或接近历史高位的因素，尽管从某些指标来看，此后的估值高得离谱。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/are-we-in-a-bubble-how-founder-of-worlds-largest-hedge-fund-says-2021-stock-market-stacks-up-11614010302?mod=home-page\">MarketWatch</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/are-we-in-a-bubble-how-founder-of-worlds-largest-hedge-fund-says-2021-stock-market-stacks-up-11614010302?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/599a65733b8245fcf7868668ef9ad712","article_id":"1116870824","content_text":"Ray Dalio’s bubble indicator says the 2021 market ranks in the 77th percentile in his ‘bubble indicator’\nThe stock market is feeling awfully frothy to some investors lately, a fact that has helped to weigh on the market’s bullish sentiment in the past week or so, but a report by Ray Dalio implies that equities aren’t as bubblicious as one might think.\n“In brief, the aggregate bubble gauge is around the 77th percentile today for the US stock market overall. In the bubble of 2000 and the bubble of 1929 this aggregate gauge had a 100th percentile read,” wrote Dalio in a blog post published on Monday on LinkedIn.\n\nRAY DALIO\nDalio is the founder of Bridgewater Associates, the world’s largest hedge-fund firm, which has made him a billionaire and comments consistent attention grabbers.\nThe hedge-fund investor says that he created an indicator to help him determine whether the stock market is in a bubble, which he defines as an unsustainably high price, by using six measures:\n\nHow high are prices relative to traditional measures?\nAre prices discounting unsustainable conditions?\nHow many new buyers (i.e., those who weren’t previously in the market) have entered the market?\nHow broadly bullish is sentiment?\nAre purchases being financed by high leverage?\nHave buyers made exceptionally extended forward purchases (e.g., built inventory, contracted forward purchases, etc.) to speculate or protect themselves against future price gains?\n\nVIA RAY DALIO\nBased on those factors, and using data that go back to the 1910s, Dalio’s indicator suggests that markets are frothy but not necessarily in a bubble by his definition.\nDalio’s note comes as stock-market investors are wrestling with rising bonds yields, with the 10-year Treasury note flirts with its highest level in about a year as investors brace for rising inflation and recovery in the economy that has been swooning from the COVID-19 pandemic.\nFiscal spending and market-favorable policies have been factors that investors have argued have kept the Dow Jones Industrial Average,the S&P 500 index and the Nasdaq Composite Index at or near record highs, despite valuations since as absurdly rich by some measures.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1594,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":388745482,"gmtCreate":1613102639646,"gmtModify":1634554514076,"author":{"id":"3574943968736312","authorId":"3574943968736312","name":"Dendenislit","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8650796e48e17621c226e2bfd4ca39a4","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574943968736312","idStr":"3574943968736312"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Moon!&nbsp;","listText":"Moon!&nbsp;","text":"Moon!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/388745482","repostId":"2110549049","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2515,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":381615037,"gmtCreate":1612961607629,"gmtModify":1703767508998,"author":{"id":"3574943968736312","authorId":"3574943968736312","name":"Dendenislit","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8650796e48e17621c226e2bfd4ca39a4","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574943968736312","idStr":"3574943968736312"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Please like","listText":"Please like","text":"Please like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/381615037","repostId":"1186964240","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2921,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":380398814,"gmtCreate":1612512875738,"gmtModify":1703762899099,"author":{"id":"3574943968736312","authorId":"3574943968736312","name":"Dendenislit","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8650796e48e17621c226e2bfd4ca39a4","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574943968736312","idStr":"3574943968736312"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Cny canceled lah, which means,&nbsp;I won’t have to spend so much on&nbsp;new clothes for my wife, sorry retail sector![龇牙]&nbsp;","listText":"Cny canceled lah, which means,&nbsp;I won’t have to spend so much on&nbsp;new clothes for my wife, sorry retail sector![龇牙]&nbsp;","text":"Cny canceled lah, which means, I won’t have to spend so much on new clothes for my wife, sorry retail sector![龇牙]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/380398814","repostId":"2109726787","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1232,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":389690519,"gmtCreate":1612759657531,"gmtModify":1703764676090,"author":{"id":"3574943968736312","authorId":"3574943968736312","name":"Dendenislit","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8650796e48e17621c226e2bfd4ca39a4","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574943968736312","idStr":"3574943968736312"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Damn","listText":"Damn","text":"Damn","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/389690519","repostId":"1180268693","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1180268693","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1612755259,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1180268693?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-02-08 11:34","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Where Can Investors Hide as a Bubble Inflates?<blockquote>随着泡沫的膨胀，投资者可以躲在哪里？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1180268693","media":"Barrons","summary":"Let’s settle one thing up front. We’re clearly witnessing a speculative bubble in the financial mark","content":"<p>Let’s settle one thing up front. We’re clearly witnessing a speculative bubble in the financial markets. This time is no different. This mania will end the same way they all do: in tears.</p><p><blockquote>让我们先解决一件事。我们显然正在目睹金融市场的投机泡沫。这次也不例外。这种狂热将以他们都做的方式结束：在眼泪中。</blockquote></p><p> I started banging the gong in mid-2020 about the imminent risk of financial crisis stemming from three potential causes: a severe market correction, a deteriorating U.S. fiscal position from unsustainable growth in deficits and debt, and the inflation that was likely to follow.</p><p><blockquote>我在2020年年中开始敲响金融危机迫在眉睫的风险，这些风险源于三个潜在原因：严重的市场调整、赤字和债务不可持续增长导致的美国财政状况恶化，以及可能随之而来的通货膨胀。</blockquote></p><p> At that time, this viewpoint was greeted with a heavy dose of skepticism. Inflationary views were considered fringe. Respected economists were quick to point out the lack of demand for money relative to rapidly expanding supply, slack in the lockdown economy, and prevailing expectations for deflation based on recent history. Wall Street has little incentive to call a market bubble. Fees are made and bonuses paid when optimism, activity and volatility are high, not by predictions of impending doom. The euphorias of bubbles are like the best narcotics—stimulative and somewhat hypnotic. But the bigger the high, the worse the comedown.</p><p><blockquote>当时，这一观点遭到了强烈的怀疑。通货膨胀观点被认为是边缘观点。受人尊敬的经济学家很快指出，相对于快速扩张的供应，货币需求不足，封锁经济疲软，以及基于近期历史的通货紧缩预期。华尔街几乎没有动力去看涨期权市场泡沫。当乐观情绪、活动和波动性很高时，就会收取费用和支付奖金，而不是通过对即将到来的厄运的预测。泡沫带来的快感就像最好的麻醉剂——既刺激又有点催眠。但高点越大，衰退就越严重。</blockquote></p><p> These contrarian views of inflation and market correction have now become mainstream. The warning signs of market mania are evident inBitcoin(up 300% in a year), the deluge ofSPAC IPOs(always a signal of a top), exorbitantP/E ratios, and rapidly rising real estateprices. These, along with retail-driven short squeezes and mini-bubbles, are symptoms of underlying conditions set in motion long ago by a flood of liquidity unleashed by the Federal Reserve. This time is different, however, in one important way. When this bubble bursts, the Fed can no longer prop up the market by lowering interest rates. Real rates, which were about 4% before the global financial crisis, are now below zero almost everywhere.</p><p><blockquote>这些对通胀和市场回调的逆向观点现已成为主流。市场狂热的警告信号在比特币（一年内上涨300%）、SPAC IPO的泛滥（始终是见顶的信号）、过高的市盈率以及快速上涨的房地产价格中显而易见。这些，以及散户驱动的空头挤压和迷你泡沫，都是美联储很久以前释放的大量流动性引发的潜在状况的症状。然而，这一次在一个重要方面有所不同。当这个泡沫破裂时，美联储就无法再通过降低利率来支撑市场。全球金融危机前的实际利率约为4%，现在几乎所有地方都低于零。</blockquote></p><p> The Biden administration is expected to unleash a blue wave of stimulus and other spending. This comes at a time when the revenue base is eroding, and the U.S. is no longer in a sound fiscal position. It is only a matter of time until government struggles to efficiently borrow against a gaping deficit and compounding debt. In 2020 alone, the U.S. government spent $3 trillion on pandemic relief while suffering a $2.1 trilliondecline in national incomefrom crippling lockdowns in our most economically important states, many of which continue today. By the end of fiscal 2020, total U.S. governmentdebtwas $27 trillion, up 20% from 2019 and triple the amount prior to the financial crisis. The Fed has absorbed a lot of this increase. Bond investors are rightly nervous.</p><p><blockquote>预计拜登政府将推出蓝色刺激和其他支出浪潮。这发生在收入基础正在侵蚀、美国财政状况不再良好的时候。政府难以有效地举债应对不断扩大的赤字和不断增加的债务只是时间问题。仅在2020年，美国政府就在疫情救助上花费了3万亿美元，同时由于我们最重要的经济州的严重封锁，国民收入下降了2.1万亿美元，其中许多州至今仍在继续。截至2020财年末，美国政府债务总额为27万亿美元，比2019年增长20%，是金融危机前的三倍。美联储已经吸收了很多这种增长。债券投资者的紧张是理所当然的。</blockquote></p><p> It is no surprise that the Fed has since adopted apro-inflation stance. An unspoken objective is to erode the topsoil from the mountain of U.S. debt at the expense of Americans. Inflation is a hidden tax that will eat away our purchasing power. Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff remind us in<i>This Time is Different</i>that throughout history, “the main device for defaulting on government obligations was… debasing the content of coinage. Modern currency presses are just a technologically advanced and more efficient approach to achieving the same end.” They note, “government debt is… often the unifying problem across the wide range of financial crises.”</p><p><blockquote>毫不奇怪，美联储此后采取了支持通胀的立场。一个不言而喻的目标是以美国人为代价侵蚀美国债务堆积如山的表土。通货膨胀是一种隐性税收，会侵蚀我们的购买力。卡门·莱因哈特和肯尼斯·罗格夫提醒我们<i>这次不一样</i>纵观历史，“政府债务违约的主要手段是……降低硬币的含量。现代货币印刷机只是实现同样目的的一种技术先进、效率更高的方法。”他们指出，“政府债务……往往是各种金融危机中的统一问题。”</blockquote></p><p> Prices are now rising in inflation bellwethers such as industrial metals, energy, and food commodities. The dollar haslost85% of its purchasing power since 1970. While a majority of this can be attributed to high inflation in the 1970s, even the supposedly deflationary 21st century has witnessed the erosion of one-third of the value of the dollar since 2000.</p><p><blockquote>工业金属、能源和食品等通胀风向标的价格目前正在上涨。自1970年以来，美元已经失去了85%的购买力。虽然这在很大程度上可以归因于20世纪70年代的高通胀，但即使是所谓的通货紧缩的21世纪，自2000年以来，美元价值也下跌了三分之一。</blockquote></p><p> Rising inflation expectations go a long way in explaining the vertiginous ascent of the equity markets in the face of a partially closed economy with muted growth. As lockdowns and travel restrictions ease, pent-up demand will pressure global supply chains and thus prices. We can expect to see a further acceleration of inflation as early as this spring as economies reopen.</p><p><blockquote>在经济部分封闭、增长乏力的情况下，通胀预期上升在很大程度上解释了股市为何会出现令人眩晕的上涨。随着封锁和旅行限制的放松，被压抑的需求将给全球供应链带来压力，从而给价格带来压力。随着经济重新开放，我们预计最早在今年春天就会看到通胀进一步加速。</blockquote></p><p> Where can one thrive, or at least hide, in this environment? U.S. equity markets are vastly overvalued by any historic measure, but bonds and cash are both danger zones in inflation. While conventional wisdom says to stay invested, it may be a good time to take some chips off of the table. Resist “FOMO,” the fear of missing out. If one has to stay invested, avoid the temptation of high-flying tech and growth equities, which are the most overvalued, in favor of diversifying among recently abandoned dividend-paying value stocks and emerging markets. Inflation-sensitive commodity (food, metals, and energy) producers should perform going forward. Gold has a millennia-long history of serving as a store of value and inflationary hedge, but pays no dividends along the way.</p><p><blockquote>在这种环境下，一个人能在哪里茁壮成长，或者至少能躲藏起来？以任何历史标准衡量，美国股市都被严重高估，但债券和现金都是通胀的危险区。虽然传统观点认为要保持投资，但现在可能是拿出一些筹码的好时机。抵制“FOMO”，害怕错过。如果必须继续投资，请避免估值最高估的高科技股和成长型股票的诱惑，转而在最近被放弃的派息价值股和新兴市场进行多元化投资。对通胀敏感的大宗商品（食品、金属和能源）生产商未来应该会表现出色。黄金作为价值储存和通胀对冲有着数千年的历史，但在此过程中没有支付股息。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Bitcoin similarly earns no yield. Cryptocurrencies have no intrinsic value, and, like fiat currencies, are worth whatever the market happens to believe. When the euphoria wears off, they may be hit hard. Besides, Bitcoin is a stacked game easily manipulated given the high concentration ofownershipby whales.</p><p><blockquote>比特币同样没有收益。加密货币没有内在价值，就像法定货币一样，无论市场相信什么，它都有价值。当兴奋消退时，他们可能会受到重创。此外，鉴于鲸鱼的所有权高度集中，比特币是一个很容易被操纵的堆叠游戏。</blockquote></p><p> Watch out for gearing in investments, whether in securities or real estate. If markets collapse, leverage will rapidly eat into the remaining value. Look for hidden exposure to risk (including inflation) in retirement accounts. Invest in hard assets not correlated to the markets. Stay liquid to exploit the inevitable correction.</p><p><blockquote>无论是证券还是房地产，都要注意投资杠杆。如果市场崩溃，杠杆将迅速侵蚀剩余价值。寻找退休账户中隐藏的风险（包括通货膨胀）。投资与市场无关的硬资产。保持流动性以利用不可避免的修正。</blockquote></p><p> We need to increase the pressure on our elected officials to cut the pork and reopen our economies. Americans want to get back to work. So-called stimulus funding is not getting into the hands of those who need it most. Ultimately, it’s the real economy, not financial markets, that drive growth and prosperity. That requires local businesses open, workers re-engaged, and productive capital investments made.</p><p><blockquote>我们需要加大对民选官员的压力，让他们削减猪肉，重新开放我们的经济。美国人想重返工作岗位。所谓的刺激资金没有到达最需要的人手中。最终，推动增长和繁荣的是实体经济，而不是金融市场。这需要当地企业开放，工人重新参与，并进行生产性资本投资。</blockquote></p><p> This is not doom and gloom. Since the problem is not a banking-sector credit crisis, and the underlying economy remains healthy (albeit weakened), postcorrection recovery may come more quickly and easily than following the financial crisis. While persistent inflation can create a host of problems, it usually supports fuller employment, and both producers and consumers will adapt to a changing price environment. In the meantime, it may be best to stay liquid and wait this one out. As spring follows even the darkest winter, the opportune time will come again.</p><p><blockquote>这不是厄运和黑暗。由于问题不是银行业的信贷危机，而且基础经济仍然健康（尽管有所减弱），调整后的复苏可能比金融危机后更快、更容易。虽然持续的通货膨胀会造成一系列问题，但它通常会支持更充分的就业，生产者和消费者都会适应不断变化的价格环境。与此同时，最好保持流动性，等待这一次结束。即使是最黑暗的冬天也会迎来春天，合适的时机也会再次到来。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Where Can Investors Hide as a Bubble Inflates?<blockquote>随着泡沫的膨胀，投资者可以躲在哪里？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhere Can Investors Hide as a Bubble Inflates?<blockquote>随着泡沫的膨胀，投资者可以躲在哪里？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Barrons</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-02-08 11:34</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Let’s settle one thing up front. We’re clearly witnessing a speculative bubble in the financial markets. This time is no different. This mania will end the same way they all do: in tears.</p><p><blockquote>让我们先解决一件事。我们显然正在目睹金融市场的投机泡沫。这次也不例外。这种狂热将以他们都做的方式结束：在眼泪中。</blockquote></p><p> I started banging the gong in mid-2020 about the imminent risk of financial crisis stemming from three potential causes: a severe market correction, a deteriorating U.S. fiscal position from unsustainable growth in deficits and debt, and the inflation that was likely to follow.</p><p><blockquote>我在2020年年中开始敲响金融危机迫在眉睫的风险，这些风险源于三个潜在原因：严重的市场调整、赤字和债务不可持续增长导致的美国财政状况恶化，以及可能随之而来的通货膨胀。</blockquote></p><p> At that time, this viewpoint was greeted with a heavy dose of skepticism. Inflationary views were considered fringe. Respected economists were quick to point out the lack of demand for money relative to rapidly expanding supply, slack in the lockdown economy, and prevailing expectations for deflation based on recent history. Wall Street has little incentive to call a market bubble. Fees are made and bonuses paid when optimism, activity and volatility are high, not by predictions of impending doom. The euphorias of bubbles are like the best narcotics—stimulative and somewhat hypnotic. But the bigger the high, the worse the comedown.</p><p><blockquote>当时，这一观点遭到了强烈的怀疑。通货膨胀观点被认为是边缘观点。受人尊敬的经济学家很快指出，相对于快速扩张的供应，货币需求不足，封锁经济疲软，以及基于近期历史的通货紧缩预期。华尔街几乎没有动力去看涨期权市场泡沫。当乐观情绪、活动和波动性很高时，就会收取费用和支付奖金，而不是通过对即将到来的厄运的预测。泡沫带来的快感就像最好的麻醉剂——既刺激又有点催眠。但高点越大，衰退就越严重。</blockquote></p><p> These contrarian views of inflation and market correction have now become mainstream. The warning signs of market mania are evident inBitcoin(up 300% in a year), the deluge ofSPAC IPOs(always a signal of a top), exorbitantP/E ratios, and rapidly rising real estateprices. These, along with retail-driven short squeezes and mini-bubbles, are symptoms of underlying conditions set in motion long ago by a flood of liquidity unleashed by the Federal Reserve. This time is different, however, in one important way. When this bubble bursts, the Fed can no longer prop up the market by lowering interest rates. Real rates, which were about 4% before the global financial crisis, are now below zero almost everywhere.</p><p><blockquote>这些对通胀和市场回调的逆向观点现已成为主流。市场狂热的警告信号在比特币（一年内上涨300%）、SPAC IPO的泛滥（始终是见顶的信号）、过高的市盈率以及快速上涨的房地产价格中显而易见。这些，以及散户驱动的空头挤压和迷你泡沫，都是美联储很久以前释放的大量流动性引发的潜在状况的症状。然而，这一次在一个重要方面有所不同。当这个泡沫破裂时，美联储就无法再通过降低利率来支撑市场。全球金融危机前的实际利率约为4%，现在几乎所有地方都低于零。</blockquote></p><p> The Biden administration is expected to unleash a blue wave of stimulus and other spending. This comes at a time when the revenue base is eroding, and the U.S. is no longer in a sound fiscal position. It is only a matter of time until government struggles to efficiently borrow against a gaping deficit and compounding debt. In 2020 alone, the U.S. government spent $3 trillion on pandemic relief while suffering a $2.1 trilliondecline in national incomefrom crippling lockdowns in our most economically important states, many of which continue today. By the end of fiscal 2020, total U.S. governmentdebtwas $27 trillion, up 20% from 2019 and triple the amount prior to the financial crisis. The Fed has absorbed a lot of this increase. Bond investors are rightly nervous.</p><p><blockquote>预计拜登政府将推出蓝色刺激和其他支出浪潮。这发生在收入基础正在侵蚀、美国财政状况不再良好的时候。政府难以有效地举债应对不断扩大的赤字和不断增加的债务只是时间问题。仅在2020年，美国政府就在疫情救助上花费了3万亿美元，同时由于我们最重要的经济州的严重封锁，国民收入下降了2.1万亿美元，其中许多州至今仍在继续。截至2020财年末，美国政府债务总额为27万亿美元，比2019年增长20%，是金融危机前的三倍。美联储已经吸收了很多这种增长。债券投资者的紧张是理所当然的。</blockquote></p><p> It is no surprise that the Fed has since adopted apro-inflation stance. An unspoken objective is to erode the topsoil from the mountain of U.S. debt at the expense of Americans. Inflation is a hidden tax that will eat away our purchasing power. Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff remind us in<i>This Time is Different</i>that throughout history, “the main device for defaulting on government obligations was… debasing the content of coinage. Modern currency presses are just a technologically advanced and more efficient approach to achieving the same end.” They note, “government debt is… often the unifying problem across the wide range of financial crises.”</p><p><blockquote>毫不奇怪，美联储此后采取了支持通胀的立场。一个不言而喻的目标是以美国人为代价侵蚀美国债务堆积如山的表土。通货膨胀是一种隐性税收，会侵蚀我们的购买力。卡门·莱因哈特和肯尼斯·罗格夫提醒我们<i>这次不一样</i>纵观历史，“政府债务违约的主要手段是……降低硬币的含量。现代货币印刷机只是实现同样目的的一种技术先进、效率更高的方法。”他们指出，“政府债务……往往是各种金融危机中的统一问题。”</blockquote></p><p> Prices are now rising in inflation bellwethers such as industrial metals, energy, and food commodities. The dollar haslost85% of its purchasing power since 1970. While a majority of this can be attributed to high inflation in the 1970s, even the supposedly deflationary 21st century has witnessed the erosion of one-third of the value of the dollar since 2000.</p><p><blockquote>工业金属、能源和食品等通胀风向标的价格目前正在上涨。自1970年以来，美元已经失去了85%的购买力。虽然这在很大程度上可以归因于20世纪70年代的高通胀，但即使是所谓的通货紧缩的21世纪，自2000年以来，美元价值也下跌了三分之一。</blockquote></p><p> Rising inflation expectations go a long way in explaining the vertiginous ascent of the equity markets in the face of a partially closed economy with muted growth. As lockdowns and travel restrictions ease, pent-up demand will pressure global supply chains and thus prices. We can expect to see a further acceleration of inflation as early as this spring as economies reopen.</p><p><blockquote>在经济部分封闭、增长乏力的情况下，通胀预期上升在很大程度上解释了股市为何会出现令人眩晕的上涨。随着封锁和旅行限制的放松，被压抑的需求将给全球供应链带来压力，从而给价格带来压力。随着经济重新开放，我们预计最早在今年春天就会看到通胀进一步加速。</blockquote></p><p> Where can one thrive, or at least hide, in this environment? U.S. equity markets are vastly overvalued by any historic measure, but bonds and cash are both danger zones in inflation. While conventional wisdom says to stay invested, it may be a good time to take some chips off of the table. Resist “FOMO,” the fear of missing out. If one has to stay invested, avoid the temptation of high-flying tech and growth equities, which are the most overvalued, in favor of diversifying among recently abandoned dividend-paying value stocks and emerging markets. Inflation-sensitive commodity (food, metals, and energy) producers should perform going forward. Gold has a millennia-long history of serving as a store of value and inflationary hedge, but pays no dividends along the way.</p><p><blockquote>在这种环境下，一个人能在哪里茁壮成长，或者至少能躲藏起来？以任何历史标准衡量，美国股市都被严重高估，但债券和现金都是通胀的危险区。虽然传统观点认为要保持投资，但现在可能是拿出一些筹码的好时机。抵制“FOMO”，害怕错过。如果必须继续投资，请避免估值最高估的高科技股和成长型股票的诱惑，转而在最近被放弃的派息价值股和新兴市场进行多元化投资。对通胀敏感的大宗商品（食品、金属和能源）生产商未来应该会表现出色。黄金作为价值储存和通胀对冲有着数千年的历史，但在此过程中没有支付股息。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Bitcoin similarly earns no yield. Cryptocurrencies have no intrinsic value, and, like fiat currencies, are worth whatever the market happens to believe. When the euphoria wears off, they may be hit hard. Besides, Bitcoin is a stacked game easily manipulated given the high concentration ofownershipby whales.</p><p><blockquote>比特币同样没有收益。加密货币没有内在价值，就像法定货币一样，无论市场相信什么，它都有价值。当兴奋消退时，他们可能会受到重创。此外，鉴于鲸鱼的所有权高度集中，比特币是一个很容易被操纵的堆叠游戏。</blockquote></p><p> Watch out for gearing in investments, whether in securities or real estate. If markets collapse, leverage will rapidly eat into the remaining value. Look for hidden exposure to risk (including inflation) in retirement accounts. Invest in hard assets not correlated to the markets. Stay liquid to exploit the inevitable correction.</p><p><blockquote>无论是证券还是房地产，都要注意投资杠杆。如果市场崩溃，杠杆将迅速侵蚀剩余价值。寻找退休账户中隐藏的风险（包括通货膨胀）。投资与市场无关的硬资产。保持流动性以利用不可避免的修正。</blockquote></p><p> We need to increase the pressure on our elected officials to cut the pork and reopen our economies. Americans want to get back to work. So-called stimulus funding is not getting into the hands of those who need it most. Ultimately, it’s the real economy, not financial markets, that drive growth and prosperity. That requires local businesses open, workers re-engaged, and productive capital investments made.</p><p><blockquote>我们需要加大对民选官员的压力，让他们削减猪肉，重新开放我们的经济。美国人想重返工作岗位。所谓的刺激资金没有到达最需要的人手中。最终，推动增长和繁荣的是实体经济，而不是金融市场。这需要当地企业开放，工人重新参与，并进行生产性资本投资。</blockquote></p><p> This is not doom and gloom. Since the problem is not a banking-sector credit crisis, and the underlying economy remains healthy (albeit weakened), postcorrection recovery may come more quickly and easily than following the financial crisis. While persistent inflation can create a host of problems, it usually supports fuller employment, and both producers and consumers will adapt to a changing price environment. In the meantime, it may be best to stay liquid and wait this one out. As spring follows even the darkest winter, the opportune time will come again.</p><p><blockquote>这不是厄运和黑暗。由于问题不是银行业的信贷危机，而且基础经济仍然健康（尽管有所减弱），调整后的复苏可能比金融危机后更快、更容易。虽然持续的通货膨胀会造成一系列问题，但它通常会支持更充分的就业，生产者和消费者都会适应不断变化的价格环境。与此同时，最好保持流动性，等待这一次结束。即使是最黑暗的冬天也会迎来春天，合适的时机也会再次到来。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/a-bubble-is-inflating-where-can-investors-hide-51612540675?mod=hp_COMMENTARY_2\">Barrons</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/a-bubble-is-inflating-where-can-investors-hide-51612540675?mod=hp_COMMENTARY_2","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1180268693","content_text":"Let’s settle one thing up front. We’re clearly witnessing a speculative bubble in the financial markets. This time is no different. This mania will end the same way they all do: in tears.\nI started banging the gong in mid-2020 about the imminent risk of financial crisis stemming from three potential causes: a severe market correction, a deteriorating U.S. fiscal position from unsustainable growth in deficits and debt, and the inflation that was likely to follow.\nAt that time, this viewpoint was greeted with a heavy dose of skepticism. Inflationary views were considered fringe. Respected economists were quick to point out the lack of demand for money relative to rapidly expanding supply, slack in the lockdown economy, and prevailing expectations for deflation based on recent history. Wall Street has little incentive to call a market bubble. Fees are made and bonuses paid when optimism, activity and volatility are high, not by predictions of impending doom. The euphorias of bubbles are like the best narcotics—stimulative and somewhat hypnotic. But the bigger the high, the worse the comedown.\nThese contrarian views of inflation and market correction have now become mainstream. The warning signs of market mania are evident inBitcoin(up 300% in a year), the deluge ofSPAC IPOs(always a signal of a top), exorbitantP/E ratios, and rapidly rising real estateprices. These, along with retail-driven short squeezes and mini-bubbles, are symptoms of underlying conditions set in motion long ago by a flood of liquidity unleashed by the Federal Reserve. This time is different, however, in one important way. When this bubble bursts, the Fed can no longer prop up the market by lowering interest rates. Real rates, which were about 4% before the global financial crisis, are now below zero almost everywhere.\nThe Biden administration is expected to unleash a blue wave of stimulus and other spending. This comes at a time when the revenue base is eroding, and the U.S. is no longer in a sound fiscal position. It is only a matter of time until government struggles to efficiently borrow against a gaping deficit and compounding debt. In 2020 alone, the U.S. government spent $3 trillion on pandemic relief while suffering a $2.1 trilliondecline in national incomefrom crippling lockdowns in our most economically important states, many of which continue today. By the end of fiscal 2020, total U.S. governmentdebtwas $27 trillion, up 20% from 2019 and triple the amount prior to the financial crisis. The Fed has absorbed a lot of this increase. Bond investors are rightly nervous.\nIt is no surprise that the Fed has since adopted apro-inflation stance. An unspoken objective is to erode the topsoil from the mountain of U.S. debt at the expense of Americans. Inflation is a hidden tax that will eat away our purchasing power. Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff remind us inThis Time is Differentthat throughout history, “the main device for defaulting on government obligations was… debasing the content of coinage. Modern currency presses are just a technologically advanced and more efficient approach to achieving the same end.” They note, “government debt is… often the unifying problem across the wide range of financial crises.”\nPrices are now rising in inflation bellwethers such as industrial metals, energy, and food commodities. The dollar haslost85% of its purchasing power since 1970. While a majority of this can be attributed to high inflation in the 1970s, even the supposedly deflationary 21st century has witnessed the erosion of one-third of the value of the dollar since 2000.\nRising inflation expectations go a long way in explaining the vertiginous ascent of the equity markets in the face of a partially closed economy with muted growth. As lockdowns and travel restrictions ease, pent-up demand will pressure global supply chains and thus prices. We can expect to see a further acceleration of inflation as early as this spring as economies reopen.\nWhere can one thrive, or at least hide, in this environment? U.S. equity markets are vastly overvalued by any historic measure, but bonds and cash are both danger zones in inflation. While conventional wisdom says to stay invested, it may be a good time to take some chips off of the table. Resist “FOMO,” the fear of missing out. If one has to stay invested, avoid the temptation of high-flying tech and growth equities, which are the most overvalued, in favor of diversifying among recently abandoned dividend-paying value stocks and emerging markets. Inflation-sensitive commodity (food, metals, and energy) producers should perform going forward. Gold has a millennia-long history of serving as a store of value and inflationary hedge, but pays no dividends along the way.\nBitcoin similarly earns no yield. Cryptocurrencies have no intrinsic value, and, like fiat currencies, are worth whatever the market happens to believe. When the euphoria wears off, they may be hit hard. Besides, Bitcoin is a stacked game easily manipulated given the high concentration ofownershipby whales.\nWatch out for gearing in investments, whether in securities or real estate. If markets collapse, leverage will rapidly eat into the remaining value. Look for hidden exposure to risk (including inflation) in retirement accounts. Invest in hard assets not correlated to the markets. Stay liquid to exploit the inevitable correction.\nWe need to increase the pressure on our elected officials to cut the pork and reopen our economies. Americans want to get back to work. So-called stimulus funding is not getting into the hands of those who need it most. Ultimately, it’s the real economy, not financial markets, that drive growth and prosperity. That requires local businesses open, workers re-engaged, and productive capital investments made.\nThis is not doom and gloom. Since the problem is not a banking-sector credit crisis, and the underlying economy remains healthy (albeit weakened), postcorrection recovery may come more quickly and easily than following the financial crisis. While persistent inflation can create a host of problems, it usually supports fuller employment, and both producers and consumers will adapt to a changing price environment. In the meantime, it may be best to stay liquid and wait this one out. As spring follows even the darkest winter, the opportune time will come again.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2613,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":389874728,"gmtCreate":1612757352464,"gmtModify":1703764660361,"author":{"id":"3574943968736312","authorId":"3574943968736312","name":"Dendenislit","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8650796e48e17621c226e2bfd4ca39a4","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574943968736312","idStr":"3574943968736312"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Okay!","listText":"Okay!","text":"Okay!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/389874728","repostId":"2108336760","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2755,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":389956401,"gmtCreate":1612670586603,"gmtModify":1703764211687,"author":{"id":"3574943968736312","authorId":"3574943968736312","name":"Dendenislit","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8650796e48e17621c226e2bfd4ca39a4","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574943968736312","idStr":"3574943968736312"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Stop the $rope","listText":"Stop the $rope","text":"Stop the $rope","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/389956401","repostId":"2109670511","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1494,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":317432271,"gmtCreate":1612465643293,"gmtModify":1703762355990,"author":{"id":"3574943968736312","authorId":"3574943968736312","name":"Dendenislit","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8650796e48e17621c226e2bfd4ca39a4","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574943968736312","idStr":"3574943968736312"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Maybe this isn’t a meme stock after all&nbsp;","listText":"Maybe this isn’t a meme stock after all&nbsp;","text":"Maybe this isn’t a meme stock after all","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/317432271","repostId":"1162866028","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":313,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":317436222,"gmtCreate":1612465490466,"gmtModify":1703762353927,"author":{"id":"3574943968736312","authorId":"3574943968736312","name":"Dendenislit","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8650796e48e17621c226e2bfd4ca39a4","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574943968736312","idStr":"3574943968736312"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"What does the community think about pot stocks ?&nbsp;","listText":"What does the community think about pot stocks ?&nbsp;","text":"What does the community think about pot stocks ?","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e5d718966036ce436e095ba0e3a53745","width":"750","height":"2294"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/317436222","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":504,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}