Nerds
01-16
这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看
@美股研报站：
2025年投资指南：十只值得关注的股票！
免责声明：上述内容仅代表发帖人个人观点，不构成本平台的任何投资建议。
分享至
微信
复制链接
精彩评论
我们需要你的真知灼见来填补这片空白
打开APP，发表看法
APP内打开
发表看法
{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"detailType":1,"isChannel":false,"data":{"magic":2,"id":393080187904424,"tweetId":"393080187904424","gmtCreate":1737009962920,"gmtModify":1737010218631,"author":{"id":4124950294118792,"idStr":"4124950294118792","authorId":4124950294118792,"authorIdStr":"4124950294118792","name":"Nerds","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5d4c2baf5777785015bcaa32179f76e0","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"fanSize":3,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"html":"<html><head></head><body>这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看</body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body>这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看</body></html>","text":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/393080187904424","repostId":391905249563080,"repostType":1,"repost":{"magic":2,"id":391905249563080,"tweetId":"391905249563080","gmtCreate":1736578920000,"gmtModify":1736686391365,"author":{"id":3518548457739306,"idStr":"3518548457739306","authorId":3518548457739306,"authorIdStr":"3518548457739306","name":"美股研报站","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1ff9ff7276e2899acb5e4a28c3d3f886","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"currentWearingBadge":{"badgeId":"35ec162348d5460f88c959321e554969-3","templateUuid":"35ec162348d5460f88c959321e554969","name":"传说交易员","description":"证券或期货账户累计交易次数达到300次","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/656db16598a0b8f21429e10d6c1cb033","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/03f10910d4dd9234f9b5702a3342193a","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0c767e35268feb729d50d3fa9a386c5a","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":1,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2022.08.06","exceedPercentage":"93.33%","individualDisplayEnabled":0},"individualDisplayBadges":[],"fanSize":1084,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b3d0399e8a50461eb7d60ac484b31be2"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/df82d7cc13e64eda99a33db60b979ae5"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ac6e7943f7224dc5be49d9648a3bac14"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6031a269bc624d8497d26b48d23a4f3e"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/33c05354e48f4556965d26c78f15a2ab"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/28c06a8303a044fe9ee7f20de9b71891"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/73c97653f54c485cbf21dd9df0d1ab18"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/04a2386ca95747049d942e538906973c"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b611b3a10a104382be71435f92730bae"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6ad33597a09c4392817aca95f2951f4f"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6055abe901404b19b2cacd3cca1bdaff"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/56d49260f99a488ab3b13f7dc030e096"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3d49190cf234403a9a570ad31c667846"}],"coverImages":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b3d0399e8a50461eb7d60ac484b31be2"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/df82d7cc13e64eda99a33db60b979ae5"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ac6e7943f7224dc5be49d9648a3bac14"}],"title":"2025年投资指南：十只值得关注的股票！","html":"<html><head></head><body><div>\n <p><b><span><span>一、市场背景与研判</span></span><span></span></b></p>\n <p><span><span>欢迎来到美股研报站，回顾过去两年，美股整体表现强劲，主要受益于降息、通胀阶段性缓解、企业盈利好于预期及人工智能等新兴领域的迅速发展。尤其在</span></span><span><span><span> 2024 </span></span></span><span><span>年，大幅降息与选举年所带来的政策预期，使标普</span></span><span><span><span> 500 </span></span></span><span><span>指数上涨约</span></span><span><span><span> 23%</span></span></span><span><span>，纳斯达克涨幅</span></span><span><span><span> 30%</span></span></span><span><span>，道琼斯工业平均指数也录得两位数增长。</span></span><span></span></p>\n <p><span><span>进入</span></span><span><span><span> 2025 </span></span></span><span><span>年，市场将面临</span></span><b><span><span>通胀顽固、利率不确定性、地缘政治风险</span></span></b><span><span>等多重因素的考验。然而，历史数据表明，美联储降息后，股市在随后的数月到一年内通常能取得较为正面的收益，而美国大选后的年份也往往能获得正回报。因此，综合来看，市场虽有波动，但仍可在基本面优质的板块和个股中发掘机会。</span></span><span></span></p>\n <p><b><span><span>二、筛选逻辑与量化思路</span></span><span></span></b></p>\n <p><span><span>本研报核心依托</span></span><span><span><span>“</span></span></span><span><span>量化评级</span></span><span><span><span>”</span></span></span><span><span>方法，结合</span></span><b><span><span>估值、增长、盈利能力、</span></span><span><span><span>EPS </span></span></span><span><span>修正、动能</span></span></b><span><span>等多维指标，优选出美国市场中具备高成长性和较强抗风险能力的个股。量化模型每日更新数百万个数据点，涵盖各公司财务报表、分析师预期修订、股价动能等要素，并将这些指标与行业同业平均值进行对比与排名。</span></span><span></span></p>\n <ul>\n <li><b><span><span>估值</span></span></b>\n <p><span><span>：优先考虑</span></span><span><span><span> PEG</span></span></span><span><span>（市盈率与成长性之比）合理或较低的股票，兼顾市盈率、</span></span><span><span><span>EV/EBITDA</span></span></span><span><span>、市销率等。</span></span><span></span></p></li>\n <li><b><span><span>增长</span></span></b>\n <p><span><span>：收入、利润、自由现金流的同比增长以及未来</span></span><span><span><span> 3~5 </span></span></span><span><span>年的远期增速。</span></span><span></span></p></li>\n <li><b><span><span>盈利能力</span></span></b>\n <p><span><span>：如净利率、毛利率、</span></span><span><span><span>ROE</span></span></span><span><span>、</span></span><span><span><span>ROA </span></span></span><span><span>等关键指标。</span></span><span></span></p></li>\n <li><b><span><span><span>EPS </span></span></span><span><span>修正</span></span></b>\n <p><span><span>：分析师对公司盈利预测的上调或下调幅度与次数。</span></span><span></span></p></li>\n <li><b><span><span>动能</span></span></b>\n <p><span><span>：股价相对于过去</span></span><span><span><span> 52 </span></span></span><span><span>周的表现及阶段性换手情况。</span></span><span></span></p></li>\n </ul>\n <p><span><span>通过上述数据筛选，本文精选出</span></span><span><span><span> 2025 </span></span></span><span><span>年值得关注的十大美股，本文仅供交流学习，不构成投资建议。</span></span></p>\n <p><b><span><span>三、</span></span><span><span><span>2025</span></span></span><span><span>年美股十大潜力股及推荐理由</span></span><span></span></b></p>\n <p><span><span>以下公司排名不分先后，所列数据基于近期财报、量化评级与市场表现。投资前请结合个人风险承受度与资金配置策略进行评估。</span></span><span></span></p>\n <p><span><span><span><span>1.</span></span><span></span></span></span><b><span><span><span>OppFi</span></span></span><span><span>（</span></span><span><span><span>OPFI</span></span></span><span><span>）</span></span></b><span></span></p>\n <p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b3d0399e8a50461eb7d60ac484b31be2\"></p>\n <p><span><span><span><span>l</span></span><span><span><span> </span></span></span></span></span><b><span><span>行业定位</span></span></b><span><span>：金融科技，面向消费金融领域</span></span><span></span></p>\n <p><span><span><span><span>l</span></span><span><span><span> </span></span></span></span></span><b><span><span>推荐理由</span></span></b><span><span>：</span></span></p>\n <p><span><span>1.</span></span><span><span><span></span></span></span><span><span><span>OppFi </span></span></span><span><span>主要面向传统银行体系难以覆盖的中低信用客户，通过数据筛选和在线审批，为数千万潜在用户提供贷款产品。</span></span></p>\n <p><span><span>2.</span></span><span><span><span></span></span></span><span><span>最新季度净收入同比增长超过</span></span><span><span><span> 100%</span></span></span><span><span>，净收入利润率达</span></span><span><span><span> 70%</span></span></span><span><span>以上，盈利弹性可观。</span></span></p>\n <p><span><span>3.</span></span><span><span><span></span></span></span><span><span>股息收益率约</span></span><span><span><span> 8%</span></span></span><span><span>，且公司现有分红策略较为稳健。</span></span></p>\n <p><span><span>4.</span></span><span><span><span></span></span></span><span><span>量化模型显示其估值（</span></span><span><span><span>A+</span></span></span><span><span>）、增长（</span></span><span><span><span>A+</span></span></span><span><span>）均优于行业平均，后续随着更多人对中小额信贷产品需求上升，</span></span><span><span><span>OppFi </span></span></span><span><span>仍具备明显上行空间。</span></span></p>\n <p><span><span><span><span>2.</span></span><span></span></span></span><b><span><span><span>Brinker International</span></span></span><span><span>（</span></span><span><span><span>EAT</span></span></span><span><span>）</span></span></b><span></span></p>\n <p><span><span><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/df82d7cc13e64eda99a33db60b979ae5\"></span></span><span></span></p>\n <p><span><span><span><span>l</span></span><span><span><span> </span></span></span></span></span><b><span><span>行业定位</span></span></b><span><span>：餐饮连锁（非必需消费品）</span></span><span></span></p>\n <p><span><span><span><span>l</span></span><span><span><span> </span></span></span></span></span><b><span><span>推荐理由</span></span></b><span><span>：</span></span><span></span></p>\n <p><span><span><span><span>1.</span></span><span></span></span></span><span><span>旗下拥有多家知名餐饮品牌，包括</span></span><span><span><span> Chili’s </span></span></span><span><span>与</span></span><span><span><span> Maggiano’s</span></span></span><span><span>，在美国市场具备较强渠道与品牌号召力。</span></span><span></span></p>\n <p><span><span><span><span>2.</span></span><span></span></span></span><span><span>过去一年股价涨幅逾</span></span><span><span><span> 200%</span></span></span><span><span>，但主营业务依旧稳健：第三季度销售额同比增长</span></span><span><span><span> 14%</span></span></span><span><span>，客流量提升</span></span><span><span><span> 6.5%</span></span></span><span><span>。</span></span><span></span></p>\n <p><span><span><span><span>3.</span></span><span></span></span></span><span><span>其外卖业务与堂食复苏并驾齐驱，忠诚度计划不断扩大用户粘性，叠加广告投放效果，盈利能力显著提升。</span></span><span></span></p>\n <p><span><span><span><span>4.</span></span><span></span></span></span><span><span>尽管估值相对行业略贵（</span></span><span><span><span>D+</span></span></span><span><span>），但公司强劲的业绩增长与较高品牌溢价足以支撑估值，后续仍有望获得资金青睐。</span></span></p>\n <ol>\n <li><b><span><span><span>3.Argan</span></span></span><span><span>（</span></span><span><span><span>AGX</span></span></span><span><span>）</span></span></b><span></span></li>\n </ol>\n <p><span><span><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ac6e7943f7224dc5be49d9648a3bac14\"></span></span><span></span></p>\n <p><span><span><span><span>l</span></span><span><span><span> </span></span></span></span></span><b><span><span>行业定位</span></span></b><span><span>：建筑与工程（工业）</span></span><span></span></p>\n <p><span><span><span><span>l</span></span><span><span><span> </span></span></span></span></span><b><span><span>推荐理由</span></span></b><span><span>：</span></span></p>\n <p><span><span>1.</span></span><span><span><span></span></span></span><span><span>专注电力、工业、电信领域的工程与管理服务，布局于清洁能源与低碳排放市场。</span></span></p>\n <p><span><span>2.</span></span><span><span><span></span></span></span><span><span>公司账面无负债，且拥有稳定现金储备，第三季度</span></span><span><span><span> EBITDA </span></span></span><span><span>同比增长近</span></span><span><span><span> 90%</span></span></span><span><span>，单季盈利创新高。</span></span></p>\n <p><span><span>3.</span></span><span><span><span></span></span></span><span><span>订单积压量可观，涵盖老旧发电厂的退役翻修、能源基础设施升级等，市场需求旺盛。</span></span></p>\n <p><span><span>4.</span></span><span><span><span></span></span></span><span><span>公司股息安全性等级为</span></span><span><span><span> A</span></span></span><span><span>，分红政策相对稳固，同时估值和增长在行业内处于领先地位。</span></span></p>\n <ol>\n <li><b><span><span><span>4.PayPal Holdings</span></span></span><span><span>（</span></span><span><span><span>PYPL</span></span></span><span><span>）</span></span></b><span></span></li>\n </ol>\n <p><span><span><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6031a269bc624d8497d26b48d23a4f3e\"></span></span><span></span></p>\n <p><span><span><span><span>l</span></span><span><span><span> </span></span></span></span></span><b><span><span>行业定位</span></span></b><span><span>：数字支付和金融科技</span></span><span></span></p>\n <p><span><span><span><span>l</span></span><span><span><span> </span></span></span></span></span><b><span><span>推荐理由</span></span></b><span><span>：</span></span><span></span></p>\n <ol></ol>\n <ul></ul>\n <ol>\n <li>\n <p><span><span>全球领先的支付处理平台，总支付量（</span></span><span><span><span>TPV</span></span></span><span><span>）达到每季数千亿美元量级，用户规模和交易频次持续攀升。</span></span><span></span></p></li>\n <li><span><span><span>“</span></span></span>\n <p><span><span>先买后付</span></span><span><span><span>”</span></span></span><span><span>（</span></span><span><span><span>BNPL</span></span></span><span><span>）等业务模式进一步刺激交易收入增长，第三季度自由现金流同比增长超</span></span><span><span><span> 100%</span></span></span><span><span>，体现强大的盈利与回购能力。</span></span><span></span></p></li>\n <li>\n <p><span><span>分析师预期其</span></span><span><span><span>EPS</span></span></span><span><span>将继续稳步攀升，量化指标中动能与盈利修正均优于行业平均。</span></span><span></span></p></li>\n <li>\n <p><span><span>尽管估值评级略显昂贵（</span></span><span><span><span>D</span></span></span><span><span>），但在支付领域的龙头地位及高现金流保障依旧是市场看好其长期发展的重要支柱。</span></span></p></li>\n </ol>\n <li><b><span><span><span>5.Urban Outfitters</span></span></span><span><span>（</span></span><span><span><span>URBN</span></span></span><span><span>）</span></span></b></li>\n <li><b><span><br></span></b><span></span></li>\n <p><span><span><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/33c05354e48f4556965d26c78f15a2ab\"></span></span><span></span></p>\n <p><span><span><span><span>l</span></span><span></span></span></span><b><span><span>行业定位：零售服装及生活方式品牌</span></span><span></span></b></p>\n <p><span><span><span><span>l</span></span><span></span></span></span><b><span><span>推荐理由：</span></span><span></span></b></p>\n <ol></ol>\n <ul></ul>\n <ol>\n <li>\n <p><span><span>公司在年轻消费人群中具有较高知名度，旗下品牌风格鲜明；在电商与线下双渠道表现突出。</span></span><span></span></p></li>\n <li>\n <p><span><span>同期推出的订阅式服装租赁平台</span></span><span><span><span> Nuuly</span></span></span><span><span>，在可持续消费风潮下增长迅速，订户量同比增长近</span></span><span><span><span> 50%</span></span></span><span><span>。</span></span><span></span></p></li>\n <li>\n <p><span><span>第三季度总营收突破</span></span><span><span><span> 14 </span></span></span><span><span>亿美元，毛利率平稳上升，盈利能力增强。</span></span><span></span></p></li>\n <li>\n <p><span><span>量化模型显示其动能（</span></span><span><span><span>A+</span></span></span><span><span>）和分析师上调预期（</span></span><span><span><span>A</span></span></span><span><span>）都高于行业，后续业务多元化将进一步增厚公司估值。</span></span></p></li>\n </ol>\n <li><b><span><span><br></span></span></b></li>\n <li><b><span><span><span>6.DXP Enterprises</span></span></span><span><span>（</span></span><span><span><span>DXPE</span></span></span><span><span>）</span></span></b></li>\n <li><b><span><br></span></b><span></span></li>\n <p><span><span><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/28c06a8303a044fe9ee7f20de9b71891\"></span></span><span></span></p>\n <p><span><span><span><span>l</span></span><span></span></span></span><b><span><span>行业定位：工业分销与工程解决方案</span></span><span></span></b></p>\n <p><span><span><span><span>l</span></span><span></span></span></span><b><span><span>推荐理由：</span></span><span></span></b></p>\n <ol></ol>\n <ul></ul>\n <ol>\n <li>\n <p><span><span>业务涵盖旋转设备、轴承与动力传输、切削工具及工业用品，历史悠久，在工业供应链中具备扎实客户基础。</span></span><span></span></p></li>\n <li>\n <p><span><span>近期受益于能源与公用事业的订单增长，第三季度收入同比增</span></span><span><span><span> 13%</span></span></span><span><span>，每股收益超出市场预期</span></span><span><span><span> 0.48 </span></span></span><span><span>美元。</span></span><span></span></p></li>\n <li>\n <p><span><span>公司</span></span><span><span><span>EBITDA</span></span></span><span><span>增长率达</span></span><span><span><span>16%</span></span></span><span><span>，显著优于同业平均的</span></span><span><span><span>7%</span></span></span><span><span>水准。</span></span><span></span></p></li>\n <li>\n <p><span><span>量化评级数据显示其估值与盈利能力兼具，后续在基础设施与能源需求升级大潮中具备较大扩张潜力。</span></span></p></li>\n </ol>\n <li><b><span><span><span>7.Stride, Inc.</span></span></span><span><span>（</span></span><span><span><span>LRN</span></span></span><span><span>）</span></span></b></li>\n <li><b><span><br></span></b><span></span></li>\n <p><span><span><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/73c97653f54c485cbf21dd9df0d1ab18\"></span></span><span></span></p>\n <p><span><span><span><span>l</span></span><span></span></span></span><b><span><span>行业定位：在线教育与职业培训</span></span><span></span></b></p>\n <p><span><span><span><span>l</span></span><span></span></span></span><b><span><span>推荐理由：</span></span><span></span></b></p>\n <ol></ol>\n <ul></ul>\n <ol>\n <li>\n <p><span><span>以</span></span><span><span><span>K-12</span></span></span><span><span>在线课程与</span></span><span><span><span>IT</span></span></span><span><span>、医疗等职业教育为核心业务，满足疫情后人群对灵活教育方式的迫切需求。</span></span><span></span></p></li>\n <li>\n <p><span><span>学生入学人数同比增长</span></span><span><span><span> 11%</span></span></span><span><span>，职业学习收入同比增长</span></span><span><span><span> 30%</span></span></span><span><span>，公司整体营收增速保持在两位数。</span></span><span></span></p></li>\n <li>\n <p><span><span>第一季度调整后营业收入同比激增</span></span><span><span><span> 290%</span></span></span><span><span>，杠杆自由现金流与盈利能力稳步提升。</span></span><span></span></p></li>\n <li>\n <p><span><span>在线教育在现代社会渗透率仍有增长空间，该股量化指标显示增长（</span></span><span><span><span>B</span></span></span><span><span>）和</span></span><span><span><span>EPS</span></span></span><span><span>修正（</span></span><span><span><span>A+</span></span></span><span><span>）表现抢眼。</span></span></p></li>\n </ol>\n <li><b><span><span><span>8.Celestica</span></span></span><span><span>（</span></span><span><span><span>CLS</span></span></span><span><span>）</span></span></b></li>\n <li><b><span><br></span></b><span></span></li>\n <p><span><span><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/04a2386ca95747049d942e538906973c\"></span></span><span></span></p>\n <p><span><span><span><span>l</span></span><span></span></span></span><b><span><span>行业定位：信息技术（电子制造服务）</span></span><span></span></b></p>\n <p><span><span><span><span>l</span></span><span></span></span></span><b><span><span>推荐理由：</span></span><span></span></b></p>\n <ol></ol>\n <ul></ul>\n <ol>\n <li>\n <p><span><span>在数据中心、通信设备与</span></span><span><span><span>AI</span></span></span><span><span>服务器等高增长领域皆有深度布局，专为大型科技企业提供制造与供应链服务。</span></span><span></span></p></li>\n <li>\n <p><span><span>过去</span></span><span><span><span>52</span></span></span><span><span>周股价涨幅超过</span></span><span><span><span>200%</span></span></span><span><span>，且估值水平由</span></span><span><span><span>C+</span></span></span><span><span>改善至</span></span><span><span><span>B-</span></span></span><span><span>，表明公司盈利与业务扩张得到市场认可。</span></span><span></span></p></li>\n <li>\n <p><span><span>第三季度营收结构中</span></span><span><span><span>ATS</span></span></span><span><span>及通信板块同比均大幅上行，企业业务虽有短暂下滑但整体保持强势。</span></span><span></span></p></li>\n <li>\n <p><span><span>分析师对中长期增长预期乐观，随着云计算及</span></span><span><span><span>AI</span></span></span><span><span>应用需求持续攀升，公司市值具备进一步扩张潜力。</span></span></p></li>\n </ol>\n <li><b><span><span><span>9.Intapp</span></span></span><span><span>（</span></span><span><span><span>INTA</span></span></span><span><span>）</span></span></b></li>\n <li><b><span><br></span></b><span></span></li>\n <p><span><span><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b611b3a10a104382be71435f92730bae\"></span></span><span></span></p>\n <p><span><span><span><span>l</span></span><span></span></span></span><b><span><span>行业定位：应用软件（</span></span><span><span><span>SaaS </span></span></span><span><span>平台）</span></span><span></span></b></p>\n <p><span><span><span><span>l</span></span><span></span></span></span><b><span><span>推荐理由：</span></span><span></span></b></p>\n <ol></ol>\n <ul></ul>\n <ol>\n <li>\n <p><span><span>提供给专业服务与金融行业的云端管理系统，整合</span></span><span><span><span>AI</span></span></span><span><span>解决方案，提高客户关系管理与项目执行效率。</span></span><span></span></p></li>\n <li>\n <p><span><span>与微软战略合作强化行业渗透，云业务净留存率达</span></span><span><span><span>119%</span></span></span><span><span>，说明老客户付费能力与粘性较高。</span></span><span></span></p></li>\n <li>\n <p><span><span>杠杆自由现金流同比增长</span></span><span><span><span> 84%</span></span></span><span><span>，远期</span></span><span><span><span>EBITDA</span></span></span><span><span>增幅近</span></span><span><span><span> 90%</span></span></span><span><span>，财务弹性远超同业。</span></span><span></span></p></li>\n <li>\n <p><span><span>量化评级显示其增长（</span></span><span><span><span>A+</span></span></span><span><span>）与</span></span><span><span><span>EPS</span></span></span><span><span>修正（</span></span><span><span><span>A</span></span></span><span><span>）均属上游水平，后续若</span></span><span><span><span>AI</span></span></span><span><span>技术深度集成，可为公司带来持续估值重估。</span></span></p></li>\n </ol>\n <li><b><span><span><span>10.Credo Technology Group</span></span></span><span><span>（</span></span><span><span><span>CRDO</span></span></span><span><span>）</span></span></b></li>\n <li><b><span><br></span></b><span></span></li>\n <p><span><span><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6ad33597a09c4392817aca95f2951f4f\"></span></span><span></span></p>\n <p><span><span><span><span>l</span></span><span></span></span></span><b><span><span>行业定位：半导体（高速连接解决方案）</span></span><span></span></b></p>\n <p><span><span><span><span>l</span></span><span></span></span></span><b><span><span>推荐理由：</span></span><span></span></b></p>\n <ol></ol>\n <ul></ul>\n <ol>\n <li>\n <p><span><span>专攻数据中心及</span></span><span><span><span>AI</span></span></span><span><span>时代的高带宽连接，满足大规模算力集群对于高性能互连器件的需求。</span></span><span></span></p></li>\n <li>\n <p><span><span>最新季度收入同比增</span></span><span><span><span> 63%</span></span></span><span><span>，环比增</span></span><span><span><span> 21%</span></span></span><span><span>，远期</span></span><span><span><span>ROE</span></span></span><span><span>预期达</span></span><span><span><span>90%</span></span></span><span><span>以上，显示较强成长性。</span></span><span></span></p></li>\n <li>\n <p><span><span>股价过去一年内累计涨幅</span></span><span><span><span> 300%</span></span></span><span><span>，但结合</span></span><span><span><span>PEG</span></span></span><span><span>衡量，其估值仍处于相对合理区间。</span></span><span></span></p></li>\n <li>\n <p><span><span>分析师普遍上调</span></span><span><span><span>EPS</span></span></span><span><span>与营收预测，</span></span><span><span><span>AI</span></span></span><span><span>相关基础设施的大规模建设，有望持续推升其订单与盈利。</span></span><span></span></p></li>\n </ol>\n <p><span><span><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6055abe901404b19b2cacd3cca1bdaff\"></span></span></p>\n <p><span><span><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/56d49260f99a488ab3b13f7dc030e096\"></span></span><span></span></p>\n <p><b><span><span>四、投资建议与风险提示</span></span><span></span></b></p>\n <p><b><span><span><span>1. </span></span></span><span><span>市场高估，建议等待调整</span></span><span></span></b></p>\n <p><b><span><span>当前纳斯达克综合指数的市盈率约为 </span></span><span><span><span>38 </span></span></span><span><span>倍，显著高于历史均值的 </span></span><span><span><span>20-30 </span></span></span><span><span>倍 区间，反映出市场整体处于高估状态。建议投资者保持耐心，等待市场调整完毕、估值回归合理化后，再逐步介入优质标的。</span></span><span></span></b></p>\n <p><b><span><span><span>2. </span></span></span><span><span>中长期关注优质股票</span></span><span></span></b></p>\n <p><b><span><span>上述推荐的十只股票在 行业前景、公司财务状况 和 量化指标 方面均具备显著优势，适合作为</span></span><span><span><span> 2025 </span></span></span><span><span>年中长期投资的重点关注对象。</span></span><span></span></b></p>\n <p><b><span><span><span>3. </span></span></span><span><span>分批建仓与等权配置策略</span></span><span></span></b></p>\n <p><b><span><span>建议采用 分批建仓或等权配置 的投资方式，逐步建立仓位，分散市场波动风险，同时确保组合的稳定性。</span></span><span></span></b></p>\n <p><b><span><span><span>4. </span></span></span><span><span>持续跟踪基本面与量化评级</span></span><span></span></b></p>\n <p><b><span><span>投资者需定期关注企业基本面（如业绩增长、盈利能力等）和量化评级动态。一旦某公司基本面恶化或量化评级下降至</span></span><span><span><span>“</span></span></span><span><span>卖出</span></span><span><span><span>”</span></span></span><span><span>区间，应及时评估是否退出，优化投资组合，以实现收益与风险的平衡。</span></span><span></span></b></p>\n <p><b><span><span>五、结语与关注</span></span><span></span></b></p>\n <p><span><span><span>2025</span></span></span><span><span>年，美股在多重变量并行的背景下仍蕴含结构性机会。从</span></span><b><span><span>在线教育、金融科技、工业分销</span></span></b><span><span>到</span></span><b><span><span><span>AI</span></span></span><span><span>与数据中心</span></span></b><span><span>相关赛道，精选个股更能把握成长红利。上述十家企业拥有较强的盈利增长动能与行业地位，若能在短期波动中保持核心竞争优势，则大概率可为长期投资者带来回报。</span></span></p>\n <p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3d49190cf234403a9a570ad31c667846\"></p>\n <p><i><span>作者：美股研报站</span></i><span></span><b><span>免责声明：</span></b><span> 本文所述数据与观点仅供参考，不构成具体投资建议。股市有风险，投资需谨慎。</span><span></span><b><span>欢迎关注</span><span><span>“</span></span><span>美股研报站</span><span><span>”</span></span><span>公众号，获取更多美股研究与数据解读，让我们携手在全球资本市场捕捉投资机遇！</span></b><span></span></p>\n</div></body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body><div>\n <p><b><span><span>一、市场背景与研判</span></span><span></span></b></p>\n <p><span><span>欢迎来到美股研报站，回顾过去两年，美股整体表现强劲，主要受益于降息、通胀阶段性缓解、企业盈利好于预期及人工智能等新兴领域的迅速发展。尤其在</span></span><span><span><span> 2024 </span></span></span><span><span>年，大幅降息与选举年所带来的政策预期，使标普</span></span><span><span><span> 500 </span></span></span><span><span>指数上涨约</span></span><span><span><span> 23%</span></span></span><span><span>，纳斯达克涨幅</span></span><span><span><span> 30%</span></span></span><span><span>，道琼斯工业平均指数也录得两位数增长。</span></span><span></span></p>\n <p><span><span>进入</span></span><span><span><span> 2025 </span></span></span><span><span>年，市场将面临</span></span><b><span><span>通胀顽固、利率不确定性、地缘政治风险</span></span></b><span><span>等多重因素的考验。然而，历史数据表明，美联储降息后，股市在随后的数月到一年内通常能取得较为正面的收益，而美国大选后的年份也往往能获得正回报。因此，综合来看，市场虽有波动，但仍可在基本面优质的板块和个股中发掘机会。</span></span><span></span></p>\n <p><b><span><span>二、筛选逻辑与量化思路</span></span><span></span></b></p>\n <p><span><span>本研报核心依托</span></span><span><span><span>“</span></span></span><span><span>量化评级</span></span><span><span><span>”</span></span></span><span><span>方法，结合</span></span><b><span><span>估值、增长、盈利能力、</span></span><span><span><span>EPS </span></span></span><span><span>修正、动能</span></span></b><span><span>等多维指标，优选出美国市场中具备高成长性和较强抗风险能力的个股。量化模型每日更新数百万个数据点，涵盖各公司财务报表、分析师预期修订、股价动能等要素，并将这些指标与行业同业平均值进行对比与排名。</span></span><span></span></p>\n <ul>\n <li><b><span><span>估值</span></span></b>\n <p><span><span>：优先考虑</span></span><span><span><span> PEG</span></span></span><span><span>（市盈率与成长性之比）合理或较低的股票，兼顾市盈率、</span></span><span><span><span>EV/EBITDA</span></span></span><span><span>、市销率等。</span></span><span></span></p></li>\n <li><b><span><span>增长</span></span></b>\n <p><span><span>：收入、利润、自由现金流的同比增长以及未来</span></span><span><span><span> 3~5 </span></span></span><span><span>年的远期增速。</span></span><span></span></p></li>\n <li><b><span><span>盈利能力</span></span></b>\n <p><span><span>：如净利率、毛利率、</span></span><span><span><span>ROE</span></span></span><span><span>、</span></span><span><span><span>ROA </span></span></span><span><span>等关键指标。</span></span><span></span></p></li>\n <li><b><span><span><span>EPS </span></span></span><span><span>修正</span></span></b>\n <p><span><span>：分析师对公司盈利预测的上调或下调幅度与次数。</span></span><span></span></p></li>\n <li><b><span><span>动能</span></span></b>\n <p><span><span>：股价相对于过去</span></span><span><span><span> 52 </span></span></span><span><span>周的表现及阶段性换手情况。</span></span><span></span></p></li>\n </ul>\n <p><span><span>通过上述数据筛选，本文精选出</span></span><span><span><span> 2025 </span></span></span><span><span>年值得关注的十大美股，本文仅供交流学习，不构成投资建议。</span></span></p>\n <p><b><span><span>三、</span></span><span><span><span>2025</span></span></span><span><span>年美股十大潜力股及推荐理由</span></span><span></span></b></p>\n <p><span><span>以下公司排名不分先后，所列数据基于近期财报、量化评级与市场表现。投资前请结合个人风险承受度与资金配置策略进行评估。</span></span><span></span></p>\n <p><span><span><span><span>1.</span></span><span></span></span></span><b><span><span><span>OppFi</span></span></span><span><span>（</span></span><span><span><span>OPFI</span></span></span><span><span>）</span></span></b><span></span></p>\n <p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b3d0399e8a50461eb7d60ac484b31be2\"></p>\n <p><span><span><span><span>l</span></span><span><span><span> </span></span></span></span></span><b><span><span>行业定位</span></span></b><span><span>：金融科技，面向消费金融领域</span></span><span></span></p>\n <p><span><span><span><span>l</span></span><span><span><span> </span></span></span></span></span><b><span><span>推荐理由</span></span></b><span><span>：</span></span></p>\n <p><span><span>1.</span></span><span><span><span></span></span></span><span><span><span>OppFi </span></span></span><span><span>主要面向传统银行体系难以覆盖的中低信用客户，通过数据筛选和在线审批，为数千万潜在用户提供贷款产品。</span></span></p>\n <p><span><span>2.</span></span><span><span><span></span></span></span><span><span>最新季度净收入同比增长超过</span></span><span><span><span> 100%</span></span></span><span><span>，净收入利润率达</span></span><span><span><span> 70%</span></span></span><span><span>以上，盈利弹性可观。</span></span></p>\n <p><span><span>3.</span></span><span><span><span></span></span></span><span><span>股息收益率约</span></span><span><span><span> 8%</span></span></span><span><span>，且公司现有分红策略较为稳健。</span></span></p>\n <p><span><span>4.</span></span><span><span><span></span></span></span><span><span>量化模型显示其估值（</span></span><span><span><span>A+</span></span></span><span><span>）、增长（</span></span><span><span><span>A+</span></span></span><span><span>）均优于行业平均，后续随着更多人对中小额信贷产品需求上升，</span></span><span><span><span>OppFi </span></span></span><span><span>仍具备明显上行空间。</span></span></p>\n <p><span><span><span><span>2.</span></span><span></span></span></span><b><span><span><span>Brinker International</span></span></span><span><span>（</span></span><span><span><span>EAT</span></span></span><span><span>）</span></span></b><span></span></p>\n <p><span><span><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/df82d7cc13e64eda99a33db60b979ae5\"></span></span><span></span></p>\n <p><span><span><span><span>l</span></span><span><span><span> </span></span></span></span></span><b><span><span>行业定位</span></span></b><span><span>：餐饮连锁（非必需消费品）</span></span><span></span></p>\n <p><span><span><span><span>l</span></span><span><span><span> </span></span></span></span></span><b><span><span>推荐理由</span></span></b><span><span>：</span></span><span></span></p>\n <p><span><span><span><span>1.</span></span><span></span></span></span><span><span>旗下拥有多家知名餐饮品牌，包括</span></span><span><span><span> Chili’s </span></span></span><span><span>与</span></span><span><span><span> Maggiano’s</span></span></span><span><span>，在美国市场具备较强渠道与品牌号召力。</span></span><span></span></p>\n <p><span><span><span><span>2.</span></span><span></span></span></span><span><span>过去一年股价涨幅逾</span></span><span><span><span> 200%</span></span></span><span><span>，但主营业务依旧稳健：第三季度销售额同比增长</span></span><span><span><span> 14%</span></span></span><span><span>，客流量提升</span></span><span><span><span> 6.5%</span></span></span><span><span>。</span></span><span></span></p>\n <p><span><span><span><span>3.</span></span><span></span></span></span><span><span>其外卖业务与堂食复苏并驾齐驱，忠诚度计划不断扩大用户粘性，叠加广告投放效果，盈利能力显著提升。</span></span><span></span></p>\n <p><span><span><span><span>4.</span></span><span></span></span></span><span><span>尽管估值相对行业略贵（</span></span><span><span><span>D+</span></span></span><span><span>），但公司强劲的业绩增长与较高品牌溢价足以支撑估值，后续仍有望获得资金青睐。</span></span></p>\n <ol>\n <li><b><span><span><span>3.Argan</span></span></span><span><span>（</span></span><span><span><span>AGX</span></span></span><span><span>）</span></span></b><span></span></li>\n </ol>\n <p><span><span><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ac6e7943f7224dc5be49d9648a3bac14\"></span></span><span></span></p>\n <p><span><span><span><span>l</span></span><span><span><span> </span></span></span></span></span><b><span><span>行业定位</span></span></b><span><span>：建筑与工程（工业）</span></span><span></span></p>\n <p><span><span><span><span>l</span></span><span><span><span> </span></span></span></span></span><b><span><span>推荐理由</span></span></b><span><span>：</span></span></p>\n <p><span><span>1.</span></span><span><span><span></span></span></span><span><span>专注电力、工业、电信领域的工程与管理服务，布局于清洁能源与低碳排放市场。</span></span></p>\n <p><span><span>2.</span></span><span><span><span></span></span></span><span><span>公司账面无负债，且拥有稳定现金储备，第三季度</span></span><span><span><span> EBITDA </span></span></span><span><span>同比增长近</span></span><span><span><span> 90%</span></span></span><span><span>，单季盈利创新高。</span></span></p>\n <p><span><span>3.</span></span><span><span><span></span></span></span><span><span>订单积压量可观，涵盖老旧发电厂的退役翻修、能源基础设施升级等，市场需求旺盛。</span></span></p>\n <p><span><span>4.</span></span><span><span><span></span></span></span><span><span>公司股息安全性等级为</span></span><span><span><span> A</span></span></span><span><span>，分红政策相对稳固，同时估值和增长在行业内处于领先地位。</span></span></p>\n <ol>\n <li><b><span><span><span>4.PayPal Holdings</span></span></span><span><span>（</span></span><span><span><span>PYPL</span></span></span><span><span>）</span></span></b><span></span></li>\n </ol>\n <p><span><span><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6031a269bc624d8497d26b48d23a4f3e\"></span></span><span></span></p>\n <p><span><span><span><span>l</span></span><span><span><span> </span></span></span></span></span><b><span><span>行业定位</span></span></b><span><span>：数字支付和金融科技</span></span><span></span></p>\n <p><span><span><span><span>l</span></span><span><span><span> </span></span></span></span></span><b><span><span>推荐理由</span></span></b><span><span>：</span></span><span></span></p>\n <ol></ol>\n <ul></ul>\n <ol>\n <li>\n <p><span><span>全球领先的支付处理平台，总支付量（</span></span><span><span><span>TPV</span></span></span><span><span>）达到每季数千亿美元量级，用户规模和交易频次持续攀升。</span></span><span></span></p></li>\n <li><span><span><span>“</span></span></span>\n <p><span><span>先买后付</span></span><span><span><span>”</span></span></span><span><span>（</span></span><span><span><span>BNPL</span></span></span><span><span>）等业务模式进一步刺激交易收入增长，第三季度自由现金流同比增长超</span></span><span><span><span> 100%</span></span></span><span><span>，体现强大的盈利与回购能力。</span></span><span></span></p></li>\n <li>\n <p><span><span>分析师预期其</span></span><span><span><span>EPS</span></span></span><span><span>将继续稳步攀升，量化指标中动能与盈利修正均优于行业平均。</span></span><span></span></p></li>\n <li>\n <p><span><span>尽管估值评级略显昂贵（</span></span><span><span><span>D</span></span></span><span><span>），但在支付领域的龙头地位及高现金流保障依旧是市场看好其长期发展的重要支柱。</span></span></p></li>\n </ol>\n <li><b><span><span><span>5.Urban Outfitters</span></span></span><span><span>（</span></span><span><span><span>URBN</span></span></span><span><span>）</span></span></b></li>\n <li><b><span><br></span></b><span></span></li>\n <p><span><span><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/33c05354e48f4556965d26c78f15a2ab\"></span></span><span></span></p>\n <p><span><span><span><span>l</span></span><span></span></span></span><b><span><span>行业定位：零售服装及生活方式品牌</span></span><span></span></b></p>\n <p><span><span><span><span>l</span></span><span></span></span></span><b><span><span>推荐理由：</span></span><span></span></b></p>\n <ol></ol>\n <ul></ul>\n <ol>\n <li>\n <p><span><span>公司在年轻消费人群中具有较高知名度，旗下品牌风格鲜明；在电商与线下双渠道表现突出。</span></span><span></span></p></li>\n <li>\n <p><span><span>同期推出的订阅式服装租赁平台</span></span><span><span><span> Nuuly</span></span></span><span><span>，在可持续消费风潮下增长迅速，订户量同比增长近</span></span><span><span><span> 50%</span></span></span><span><span>。</span></span><span></span></p></li>\n <li>\n <p><span><span>第三季度总营收突破</span></span><span><span><span> 14 </span></span></span><span><span>亿美元，毛利率平稳上升，盈利能力增强。</span></span><span></span></p></li>\n <li>\n <p><span><span>量化模型显示其动能（</span></span><span><span><span>A+</span></span></span><span><span>）和分析师上调预期（</span></span><span><span><span>A</span></span></span><span><span>）都高于行业，后续业务多元化将进一步增厚公司估值。</span></span></p></li>\n </ol>\n <li><b><span><span><br></span></span></b></li>\n <li><b><span><span><span>6.DXP Enterprises</span></span></span><span><span>（</span></span><span><span><span>DXPE</span></span></span><span><span>）</span></span></b></li>\n <li><b><span><br></span></b><span></span></li>\n <p><span><span><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/28c06a8303a044fe9ee7f20de9b71891\"></span></span><span></span></p>\n <p><span><span><span><span>l</span></span><span></span></span></span><b><span><span>行业定位：工业分销与工程解决方案</span></span><span></span></b></p>\n <p><span><span><span><span>l</span></span><span></span></span></span><b><span><span>推荐理由：</span></span><span></span></b></p>\n <ol></ol>\n <ul></ul>\n <ol>\n <li>\n <p><span><span>业务涵盖旋转设备、轴承与动力传输、切削工具及工业用品，历史悠久，在工业供应链中具备扎实客户基础。</span></span><span></span></p></li>\n <li>\n <p><span><span>近期受益于能源与公用事业的订单增长，第三季度收入同比增</span></span><span><span><span> 13%</span></span></span><span><span>，每股收益超出市场预期</span></span><span><span><span> 0.48 </span></span></span><span><span>美元。</span></span><span></span></p></li>\n <li>\n <p><span><span>公司</span></span><span><span><span>EBITDA</span></span></span><span><span>增长率达</span></span><span><span><span>16%</span></span></span><span><span>，显著优于同业平均的</span></span><span><span><span>7%</span></span></span><span><span>水准。</span></span><span></span></p></li>\n <li>\n <p><span><span>量化评级数据显示其估值与盈利能力兼具，后续在基础设施与能源需求升级大潮中具备较大扩张潜力。</span></span></p></li>\n </ol>\n <li><b><span><span><span>7.Stride, Inc.</span></span></span><span><span>（</span></span><span><span><span>LRN</span></span></span><span><span>）</span></span></b></li>\n <li><b><span><br></span></b><span></span></li>\n <p><span><span><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/73c97653f54c485cbf21dd9df0d1ab18\"></span></span><span></span></p>\n <p><span><span><span><span>l</span></span><span></span></span></span><b><span><span>行业定位：在线教育与职业培训</span></span><span></span></b></p>\n <p><span><span><span><span>l</span></span><span></span></span></span><b><span><span>推荐理由：</span></span><span></span></b></p>\n <ol></ol>\n <ul></ul>\n <ol>\n <li>\n <p><span><span>以</span></span><span><span><span>K-12</span></span></span><span><span>在线课程与</span></span><span><span><span>IT</span></span></span><span><span>、医疗等职业教育为核心业务，满足疫情后人群对灵活教育方式的迫切需求。</span></span><span></span></p></li>\n <li>\n <p><span><span>学生入学人数同比增长</span></span><span><span><span> 11%</span></span></span><span><span>，职业学习收入同比增长</span></span><span><span><span> 30%</span></span></span><span><span>，公司整体营收增速保持在两位数。</span></span><span></span></p></li>\n <li>\n <p><span><span>第一季度调整后营业收入同比激增</span></span><span><span><span> 290%</span></span></span><span><span>，杠杆自由现金流与盈利能力稳步提升。</span></span><span></span></p></li>\n <li>\n <p><span><span>在线教育在现代社会渗透率仍有增长空间，该股量化指标显示增长（</span></span><span><span><span>B</span></span></span><span><span>）和</span></span><span><span><span>EPS</span></span></span><span><span>修正（</span></span><span><span><span>A+</span></span></span><span><span>）表现抢眼。</span></span></p></li>\n </ol>\n <li><b><span><span><span>8.Celestica</span></span></span><span><span>（</span></span><span><span><span>CLS</span></span></span><span><span>）</span></span></b></li>\n <li><b><span><br></span></b><span></span></li>\n <p><span><span><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/04a2386ca95747049d942e538906973c\"></span></span><span></span></p>\n <p><span><span><span><span>l</span></span><span></span></span></span><b><span><span>行业定位：信息技术（电子制造服务）</span></span><span></span></b></p>\n <p><span><span><span><span>l</span></span><span></span></span></span><b><span><span>推荐理由：</span></span><span></span></b></p>\n <ol></ol>\n <ul></ul>\n <ol>\n <li>\n <p><span><span>在数据中心、通信设备与</span></span><span><span><span>AI</span></span></span><span><span>服务器等高增长领域皆有深度布局，专为大型科技企业提供制造与供应链服务。</span></span><span></span></p></li>\n <li>\n <p><span><span>过去</span></span><span><span><span>52</span></span></span><span><span>周股价涨幅超过</span></span><span><span><span>200%</span></span></span><span><span>，且估值水平由</span></span><span><span><span>C+</span></span></span><span><span>改善至</span></span><span><span><span>B-</span></span></span><span><span>，表明公司盈利与业务扩张得到市场认可。</span></span><span></span></p></li>\n <li>\n <p><span><span>第三季度营收结构中</span></span><span><span><span>ATS</span></span></span><span><span>及通信板块同比均大幅上行，企业业务虽有短暂下滑但整体保持强势。</span></span><span></span></p></li>\n <li>\n <p><span><span>分析师对中长期增长预期乐观，随着云计算及</span></span><span><span><span>AI</span></span></span><span><span>应用需求持续攀升，公司市值具备进一步扩张潜力。</span></span></p></li>\n </ol>\n <li><b><span><span><span>9.Intapp</span></span></span><span><span>（</span></span><span><span><span>INTA</span></span></span><span><span>）</span></span></b></li>\n <li><b><span><br></span></b><span></span></li>\n <p><span><span><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b611b3a10a104382be71435f92730bae\"></span></span><span></span></p>\n <p><span><span><span><span>l</span></span><span></span></span></span><b><span><span>行业定位：应用软件（</span></span><span><span><span>SaaS </span></span></span><span><span>平台）</span></span><span></span></b></p>\n <p><span><span><span><span>l</span></span><span></span></span></span><b><span><span>推荐理由：</span></span><span></span></b></p>\n <ol></ol>\n <ul></ul>\n <ol>\n <li>\n <p><span><span>提供给专业服务与金融行业的云端管理系统，整合</span></span><span><span><span>AI</span></span></span><span><span>解决方案，提高客户关系管理与项目执行效率。</span></span><span></span></p></li>\n <li>\n <p><span><span>与微软战略合作强化行业渗透，云业务净留存率达</span></span><span><span><span>119%</span></span></span><span><span>，说明老客户付费能力与粘性较高。</span></span><span></span></p></li>\n <li>\n <p><span><span>杠杆自由现金流同比增长</span></span><span><span><span> 84%</span></span></span><span><span>，远期</span></span><span><span><span>EBITDA</span></span></span><span><span>增幅近</span></span><span><span><span> 90%</span></span></span><span><span>，财务弹性远超同业。</span></span><span></span></p></li>\n <li>\n <p><span><span>量化评级显示其增长（</span></span><span><span><span>A+</span></span></span><span><span>）与</span></span><span><span><span>EPS</span></span></span><span><span>修正（</span></span><span><span><span>A</span></span></span><span><span>）均属上游水平，后续若</span></span><span><span><span>AI</span></span></span><span><span>技术深度集成，可为公司带来持续估值重估。</span></span></p></li>\n </ol>\n <li><b><span><span><span>10.Credo Technology Group</span></span></span><span><span>（</span></span><span><span><span>CRDO</span></span></span><span><span>）</span></span></b></li>\n <li><b><span><br></span></b><span></span></li>\n <p><span><span><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6ad33597a09c4392817aca95f2951f4f\"></span></span><span></span></p>\n <p><span><span><span><span>l</span></span><span></span></span></span><b><span><span>行业定位：半导体（高速连接解决方案）</span></span><span></span></b></p>\n <p><span><span><span><span>l</span></span><span></span></span></span><b><span><span>推荐理由：</span></span><span></span></b></p>\n <ol></ol>\n <ul></ul>\n <ol>\n <li>\n <p><span><span>专攻数据中心及</span></span><span><span><span>AI</span></span></span><span><span>时代的高带宽连接，满足大规模算力集群对于高性能互连器件的需求。</span></span><span></span></p></li>\n <li>\n <p><span><span>最新季度收入同比增</span></span><span><span><span> 63%</span></span></span><span><span>，环比增</span></span><span><span><span> 21%</span></span></span><span><span>，远期</span></span><span><span><span>ROE</span></span></span><span><span>预期达</span></span><span><span><span>90%</span></span></span><span><span>以上，显示较强成长性。</span></span><span></span></p></li>\n <li>\n <p><span><span>股价过去一年内累计涨幅</span></span><span><span><span> 300%</span></span></span><span><span>，但结合</span></span><span><span><span>PEG</span></span></span><span><span>衡量，其估值仍处于相对合理区间。</span></span><span></span></p></li>\n <li>\n <p><span><span>分析师普遍上调</span></span><span><span><span>EPS</span></span></span><span><span>与营收预测，</span></span><span><span><span>AI</span></span></span><span><span>相关基础设施的大规模建设，有望持续推升其订单与盈利。</span></span><span></span></p></li>\n </ol>\n <p><span><span><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6055abe901404b19b2cacd3cca1bdaff\"></span></span></p>\n <p><span><span><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/56d49260f99a488ab3b13f7dc030e096\"></span></span><span></span></p>\n <p><b><span><span>四、投资建议与风险提示</span></span><span></span></b></p>\n <p><b><span><span><span>1. </span></span></span><span><span>市场高估，建议等待调整</span></span><span></span></b></p>\n <p><b><span><span>当前纳斯达克综合指数的市盈率约为 </span></span><span><span><span>38 </span></span></span><span><span>倍，显著高于历史均值的 </span></span><span><span><span>20-30 </span></span></span><span><span>倍 区间，反映出市场整体处于高估状态。建议投资者保持耐心，等待市场调整完毕、估值回归合理化后，再逐步介入优质标的。</span></span><span></span></b></p>\n <p><b><span><span><span>2. </span></span></span><span><span>中长期关注优质股票</span></span><span></span></b></p>\n <p><b><span><span>上述推荐的十只股票在 行业前景、公司财务状况 和 量化指标 方面均具备显著优势，适合作为</span></span><span><span><span> 2025 </span></span></span><span><span>年中长期投资的重点关注对象。</span></span><span></span></b></p>\n <p><b><span><span><span>3. </span></span></span><span><span>分批建仓与等权配置策略</span></span><span></span></b></p>\n <p><b><span><span>建议采用 分批建仓或等权配置 的投资方式，逐步建立仓位，分散市场波动风险，同时确保组合的稳定性。</span></span><span></span></b></p>\n <p><b><span><span><span>4. </span></span></span><span><span>持续跟踪基本面与量化评级</span></span><span></span></b></p>\n <p><b><span><span>投资者需定期关注企业基本面（如业绩增长、盈利能力等）和量化评级动态。一旦某公司基本面恶化或量化评级下降至</span></span><span><span><span>“</span></span></span><span><span>卖出</span></span><span><span><span>”</span></span></span><span><span>区间，应及时评估是否退出，优化投资组合，以实现收益与风险的平衡。</span></span><span></span></b></p>\n <p><b><span><span>五、结语与关注</span></span><span></span></b></p>\n <p><span><span><span>2025</span></span></span><span><span>年，美股在多重变量并行的背景下仍蕴含结构性机会。从</span></span><b><span><span>在线教育、金融科技、工业分销</span></span></b><span><span>到</span></span><b><span><span><span>AI</span></span></span><span><span>与数据中心</span></span></b><span><span>相关赛道，精选个股更能把握成长红利。上述十家企业拥有较强的盈利增长动能与行业地位，若能在短期波动中保持核心竞争优势，则大概率可为长期投资者带来回报。</span></span></p>\n <p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3d49190cf234403a9a570ad31c667846\"></p>\n <p><i><span>作者：美股研报站</span></i><span></span><b><span>免责声明：</span></b><span> 本文所述数据与观点仅供参考，不构成具体投资建议。股市有风险，投资需谨慎。</span><span></span><b><span>欢迎关注</span><span><span>“</span></span><span>美股研报站</span><span><span>”</span></span><span>公众号，获取更多美股研究与数据解读，让我们携手在全球资本市场捕捉投资机遇！</span></b><span></span></p>\n</div></body></html>","text":"一、市场背景与研判 欢迎来到美股研报站，回顾过去两年，美股整体表现强劲，主要受益于降息、通胀阶段性缓解、企业盈利好于预期及人工智能等新兴领域的迅速发展。尤其在 2024 年，大幅降息与选举年所带来的政策预期，使标普 500 指数上涨约 23%，纳斯达克涨幅 30%，道琼斯工业平均指数也录得两位数增长。 进入 2025 年，市场将面临通胀顽固、利率不确定性、地缘政治风险等多重因素的考验。然而，历史数据表明，美联储降息后，股市在随后的数月到一年内通常能取得较为正面的收益，而美国大选后的年份也往往能获得正回报。因此，综合来看，市场虽有波动，但仍可在基本面优质的板块和个股中发掘机会。 二、筛选逻辑与量化思路 本研报核心依托“量化评级”方法，结合估值、增长、盈利能力、EPS 修正、动能等多维指标，优选出美国市场中具备高成长性和较强抗风险能力的个股。量化模型每日更新数百万个数据点，涵盖各公司财务报表、分析师预期修订、股价动能等要素，并将这些指标与行业同业平均值进行对比与排名。 估值 ：优先考虑 PEG（市盈率与成长性之比）合理或较低的股票，兼顾市盈率、EV/EBITDA、市销率等。 增长 ：收入、利润、自由现金流的同比增长以及未来 3~5 年的远期增速。 盈利能力 ：如净利率、毛利率、ROE、ROA 等关键指标。 EPS 修正 ：分析师对公司盈利预测的上调或下调幅度与次数。 动能 ：股价相对于过去 52 周的表现及阶段性换手情况。 通过上述数据筛选，本文精选出 2025 年值得关注的十大美股，本文仅供交流学习，不构成投资建议。 三、2025年美股十大潜力股及推荐理由 以下公司排名不分先后，所列数据基于近期财报、量化评级与市场表现。投资前请结合个人风险承受度与资金配置策略进行评估。 1.OppFi（OPFI） l 行业定位：金融科技，面向消费金融领域 l 推荐理由： 1.OppFi 主要面向传统银行体系难以覆盖的中低信用客户，通过数据筛选和在线审批，为数千万潜在用户提供贷款产品。 2.最新季度净收入同比增长超过 100%，净收入利润率达 70%以上，盈利弹性可观。 3.股息收益率约 8%，且公司现有分红策略较为稳健。 4.量化模型显示其估值（A+）、增长（A+）均优于行业平均，后续随着更多人对中小额信贷产品需求上升，OppFi 仍具备明显上行空间。 2.Brinker International（EAT） l 行业定位：餐饮连锁（非必需消费品） l 推荐理由： 1.旗下拥有多家知名餐饮品牌，包括 Chili’s 与 Maggiano’s，在美国市场具备较强渠道与品牌号召力。 2.过去一年股价涨幅逾 200%，但主营业务依旧稳健：第三季度销售额同比增长 14%，客流量提升 6.5%。 3.其外卖业务与堂食复苏并驾齐驱，忠诚度计划不断扩大用户粘性，叠加广告投放效果，盈利能力显著提升。 4.尽管估值相对行业略贵（D+），但公司强劲的业绩增长与较高品牌溢价足以支撑估值，后续仍有望获得资金青睐。 3.Argan（AGX） l 行业定位：建筑与工程（工业） l 推荐理由： 1.专注电力、工业、电信领域的工程与管理服务，布局于清洁能源与低碳排放市场。 2.公司账面无负债，且拥有稳定现金储备，第三季度 EBITDA 同比增长近 90%，单季盈利创新高。 3.订单积压量可观，涵盖老旧发电厂的退役翻修、能源基础设施升级等，市场需求旺盛。 4.公司股息安全性等级为 A，分红政策相对稳固，同时估值和增长在行业内处于领先地位。 4.PayPal Holdings（PYPL） l 行业定位：数字支付和金融科技 l 推荐理由： 全球领先的支付处理平台，总支付量（TPV）达到每季数千亿美元量级，用户规模和交易频次持续攀升。 “ 先买后付”（BNPL）等业务模式进一步刺激交易收入增长，第三季度自由现金流同比增长超 100%，体现强大的盈利与回购能力。 分析师预期其EPS将继续稳步攀升，量化指标中动能与盈利修正均优于行业平均。 尽管估值评级略显昂贵（D），但在支付领域的龙头地位及高现金流保障依旧是市场看好其长期发展的重要支柱。 5.Urban Outfitters（URBN） l行业定位：零售服装及生活方式品牌 l推荐理由： 公司在年轻消费人群中具有较高知名度，旗下品牌风格鲜明；在电商与线下双渠道表现突出。 同期推出的订阅式服装租赁平台 Nuuly，在可持续消费风潮下增长迅速，订户量同比增长近 50%。 第三季度总营收突破 14 亿美元，毛利率平稳上升，盈利能力增强。 量化模型显示其动能（A+）和分析师上调预期（A）都高于行业，后续业务多元化将进一步增厚公司估值。 6.DXP Enterprises（DXPE） l行业定位：工业分销与工程解决方案 l推荐理由： 业务涵盖旋转设备、轴承与动力传输、切削工具及工业用品，历史悠久，在工业供应链中具备扎实客户基础。 近期受益于能源与公用事业的订单增长，第三季度收入同比增 13%，每股收益超出市场预期 0.48 美元。 公司EBITDA增长率达16%，显著优于同业平均的7%水准。 量化评级数据显示其估值与盈利能力兼具，后续在基础设施与能源需求升级大潮中具备较大扩张潜力。 7.Stride, Inc.（LRN） l行业定位：在线教育与职业培训 l推荐理由： 以K-12在线课程与IT、医疗等职业教育为核心业务，满足疫情后人群对灵活教育方式的迫切需求。 学生入学人数同比增长 11%，职业学习收入同比增长 30%，公司整体营收增速保持在两位数。 第一季度调整后营业收入同比激增 290%，杠杆自由现金流与盈利能力稳步提升。 在线教育在现代社会渗透率仍有增长空间，该股量化指标显示增长（B）和EPS修正（A+）表现抢眼。 8.Celestica（CLS） l行业定位：信息技术（电子制造服务） l推荐理由： 在数据中心、通信设备与AI服务器等高增长领域皆有深度布局，专为大型科技企业提供制造与供应链服务。 过去52周股价涨幅超过200%，且估值水平由C+改善至B-，表明公司盈利与业务扩张得到市场认可。 第三季度营收结构中ATS及通信板块同比均大幅上行，企业业务虽有短暂下滑但整体保持强势。 分析师对中长期增长预期乐观，随着云计算及AI应用需求持续攀升，公司市值具备进一步扩张潜力。 9.Intapp（INTA） l行业定位：应用软件（SaaS 平台） l推荐理由： 提供给专业服务与金融行业的云端管理系统，整合AI解决方案，提高客户关系管理与项目执行效率。 与微软战略合作强化行业渗透，云业务净留存率达119%，说明老客户付费能力与粘性较高。 杠杆自由现金流同比增长 84%，远期EBITDA增幅近 90%，财务弹性远超同业。 量化评级显示其增长（A+）与EPS修正（A）均属上游水平，后续若AI技术深度集成，可为公司带来持续估值重估。 10.Credo Technology Group（CRDO） l行业定位：半导体（高速连接解决方案） l推荐理由： 专攻数据中心及AI时代的高带宽连接，满足大规模算力集群对于高性能互连器件的需求。 最新季度收入同比增 63%，环比增 21%，远期ROE预期达90%以上，显示较强成长性。 股价过去一年内累计涨幅 300%，但结合PEG衡量，其估值仍处于相对合理区间。 分析师普遍上调EPS与营收预测，AI相关基础设施的大规模建设，有望持续推升其订单与盈利。 四、投资建议与风险提示 1. 市场高估，建议等待调整 当前纳斯达克综合指数的市盈率约为 38 倍，显著高于历史均值的 20-30 倍 区间，反映出市场整体处于高估状态。建议投资者保持耐心，等待市场调整完毕、估值回归合理化后，再逐步介入优质标的。 2. 中长期关注优质股票 上述推荐的十只股票在 行业前景、公司财务状况 和 量化指标 方面均具备显著优势，适合作为 2025 年中长期投资的重点关注对象。 3. 分批建仓与等权配置策略 建议采用 分批建仓或等权配置 的投资方式，逐步建立仓位，分散市场波动风险，同时确保组合的稳定性。 4. 持续跟踪基本面与量化评级 投资者需定期关注企业基本面（如业绩增长、盈利能力等）和量化评级动态。一旦某公司基本面恶化或量化评级下降至“卖出”区间，应及时评估是否退出，优化投资组合，以实现收益与风险的平衡。 五、结语与关注 2025年，美股在多重变量并行的背景下仍蕴含结构性机会。从在线教育、金融科技、工业分销到AI与数据中心相关赛道，精选个股更能把握成长红利。上述十家企业拥有较强的盈利增长动能与行业地位，若能在短期波动中保持核心竞争优势，则大概率可为长期投资者带来回报。 作者：美股研报站免责声明： 本文所述数据与观点仅供参考，不构成具体投资建议。股市有风险，投资需谨慎。欢迎关注“美股研报站”公众号，获取更多美股研究与数据解读，让我们携手在全球资本市场捕捉投资机遇！","highlighted":1,"essential":2,"paper":2,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/391905249563080","repostId":0,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"commentLimit":10,"symbols":["IE00BN0W2T93.GBP","DXPE","IE00BN0W2V16.EUR","AGX","LU2125910500.SGD","LU2517655028.SGD","LU1559883803.SGD","OPFI","LRN","CLS","LU0757428866.USD","IE00BQXX3C00.GBP","IE00BMQBXF63.USD","IE00BMG7P694.USD","PYPL","IE0009354923.USD","CRDO","LU2041044095.USD","INTA","EAT","IE00BN0W2W23.USD","IE00BQXX3D17.EUR","A","B","D","LU1861217088.USD","URBN","IE00BMG7P587.USD","LU0347712357.USD","LU2089283258.USD","LU2413666426.HKD","LU2023251221.USD"],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":6189,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":861,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":27,"optionInvolvedFlag":false,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/393080187904424"}
精彩评论