老毛病又犯了
01-22
这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看
@期权小班长：
苹果会跌到200吗？& 6000块买100股英伟达！
免责声明：上述内容仅代表发帖人个人观点，不构成本平台的任何投资建议。
分享至
微信
复制链接
精彩评论
我们需要你的真知灼见来填补这片空白
打开APP，发表看法
APP内打开
发表看法
{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"detailType":1,"isChannel":false,"data":{"magic":2,"id":395209668932192,"tweetId":"395209668932192","gmtCreate":1737496820019,"gmtModify":1737496821692,"author":{"id":3454327340644243,"idStr":"3454327340644243","authorId":3454327340644243,"authorIdStr":"3454327340644243","name":"老毛病又犯了","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ffcaeb45e24071062cb2c723560e6f71","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"fanSize":3,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"html":"<html><head></head><body>这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看</body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body>这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看</body></html>","text":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/395209668932192","repostId":395045883162904,"repostType":1,"repost":{"magic":2,"id":395045883162904,"tweetId":"395045883162904","gmtCreate":1737477967624,"gmtModify":1745205612776,"author":{"id":3527667590215376,"idStr":"3527667590215376","authorId":3527667590215376,"authorIdStr":"3527667590215376","name":"期权小班长","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e785bea87af8baf08d2b24111b78c16a","vip":2,"userType":2,"introduction":"最简单的期权策略实践者","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"currentWearingBadge":{"badgeId":"99ab5418acee46419c22b9c7ac12257b-1","templateUuid":"99ab5418acee46419c22b9c7ac12257b","name":"月度最佳创作者","description":"每月精华帖数量及质量位于社区TOP3的创作者","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b0cad6192443c33dca826a001250fbd4","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5ccd98c646815ce7610b0df338e060cc","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":1,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2022.03.02","individualDisplayEnabled":0},"individualDisplayBadges":[{"badgeId":"3f8f4b8c193b4343a88817ce07587dbd-1","templateUuid":"3f8f4b8c193b4343a88817ce07587dbd","name":"星级创作者","description":"累计发表精华帖>=3（或有料帖>=10），且30天内发表过至少一篇精华帖（或4篇有料帖）并参与过评论","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1866dcf97a73be1c330f85862546aedc","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4f5c5fa8e2c7683bb5a7fce8753ee456","redirectLinkEnabled":1,"redirectLink":"https://www.laohu8.com/activity/market/2023/star-contributors/","hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2025.10.19","individualDisplayEnabled":1,"backgroundColor":{"dark":"#675a37","tint":"#f9ebc2"},"fontColor":{"dark":"#ffffff","tint":"#ab7a0e"}}],"fanSize":35918,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[{"themeId":"bc6e8e4b405b43429905237d8c15ff4c","categoryId":"20b8d1944bae4805b371322c2ab986d4","name":"期权Q&A：期权知识，你问我答","type":0,"rnLink":"https://laohu8.com/RN?name=RNTheme&page=/theme/detail&rndata={\"themeId\":bc6e8e4b405b43429905237d8c15ff4c}&rnconfig={\"headerBarHidden\": true}","description":"你想知道的期权知识都在这里，咨询期权问题@期权小助手","image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/672d6bc9cf055ebef009d5ee69bfef82"}],"images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a338668d846ae2a705e12e3093646d9f","width":"1996","height":"1440"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a629fd387dc954ff5a32a9421294068b","width":"780","height":"898"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8254aa8da3fbac4755f771a9a55fda36","width":"1170","height":"2074"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d449a237d2fe0e2c09bb2d531cf18237","width":"2558","height":"144"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/057227411ed9d99f22bf7ac95c6454dc","width":"1044","height":"516"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/044a4bd9cbba4172967716cdb73a6335","width":"2568","height":"262"}],"coverImages":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a338668d846ae2a705e12e3093646d9f","width":"1996","height":"1440"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a629fd387dc954ff5a32a9421294068b","width":"780","height":"898"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8254aa8da3fbac4755f771a9a55fda36","width":"1170","height":"2074"}],"title":"苹果会跌到200吗？& 6000块买100股英伟达！","html":"<html><head></head><body><p> <a data-mention-id=\"AAPL\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"苹果\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">$苹果(AAPL)$</a> </p><p>苹果近期有两个利空，一是周二披露佩洛西卖了3.16万股苹果股票，二是上周台积电财报显示收入环比下降受到智能手机的季节性因素影响。</p><p>股价自高点260回调至220，回到川普竞选总统成功之前。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a338668d846ae2a705e12e3093646d9f\" tg-width=\"1996\" tg-height=\"1440\"></p><p>考虑佩洛西14号卖出股票，经过周二回调，看起来是不错的抄底或者sell put机会，那么实际情况如何呢？</p><p>根据期权开仓明细，看跌期权开仓做空指向性非常强，下跌目标指向210、200、180：</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a629fd387dc954ff5a32a9421294068b\" tg-width=\"780\" tg-height=\"898\"></p><p>这次排序按未平仓数量，因为苹果大跌趋势已走完半个月，如此大趋势肯定有空头提前布局，未平仓数量可以更明确的看出来。</p><p>比如查看2026年到期180put <a data-mention-id=\"AAPL 20260116 180.0 PUT\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"AAPL\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/AAPL%2020260116%20180.0%20PUT\">$AAPL 20260116 180.0 PUT$</a> ，大单在12月19日买入，而排名靠前的其他看跌期权比如 <a data-mention-id=\"AAPL 20250321 200.0 PUT\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"AAPL\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/AAPL%2020250321%20200.0%20PUT\">$AAPL 20250321 200.0 PUT$</a> 开仓日期也近似。可以判定180、200、210皆为本次做空目标价。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8254aa8da3fbac4755f771a9a55fda36\" tg-width=\"1170\" tg-height=\"2074\"></p><p>不过个人以为210也就差不多了，下周苹果财报，财报前暴跌财报后大概率反弹。我选择sell put200 <a data-mention-id=\"AAPL 20250131 200.0 PUT\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"AAPL\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/AAPL%2020250131%20200.0%20PUT\">$AAPL 20250131 200.0 PUT$</a> </p><p>180跟200行权价可能是配合大盘暴跌的极端情况，但13号当周空头并没有砸下去，所以近期应该不需要考虑这个目标价。</p><p> <a data-mention-id=\"TSM\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"台积电\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSM\">$台积电(TSM)$</a> </p><p>大单roll仓买入200call <a data-mention-id=\"TSM 20250516 200.0 CALL\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"TSM\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/TSM%2020250516%20200.0%20CALL\">$TSM 20250516 200.0 CALL$</a> ，2万手</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d449a237d2fe0e2c09bb2d531cf18237\" tg-width=\"2558\" tg-height=\"144\"></p><p>近期特斯拉不好做，我就sell put台积电了 <a data-mention-id=\"TSM 20250131 200.0 PUT\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"TSM\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/TSM%2020250131%20200.0%20PUT\">$TSM 20250131 200.0 PUT$</a> </p><p> <a data-mention-id=\"NVDA\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"英伟达\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">$英伟达(NVDA)$</a> </p><p>佩洛西披露在1月14日买了50手 <a data-mention-id=\"NVDA 20260116 80.0 CALL\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"NVDA\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/NVDA%2020260116%2080.0%20CALL\">$NVDA 20260116 80.0 CALL$</a> ，可能在大家看来80是在是太价内了，但我觉得这个行权价对于佩洛西来说颇为激进。</p><p>出于各种各样的理由，75～90的put开仓量很大，也就是说英伟达跌到这个区间不无可能，要知道平价call到期价格为0，80call有概率跌到0。</p><p>不过她敢买说明年底不可能低于80以下，虽然这个背书很没用，但也算是背书了。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/057227411ed9d99f22bf7ac95c6454dc\" tg-width=\"1044\" tg-height=\"516\"></p><p>有钱人投资第一想法是保本，虽然期权保本听起来很无厘头，不过跟价外或者平价行权价相比，极度价内在可能亏损情况下给出了行权选项。比如明年到期英伟达100块，佩洛西本次行权价+成交价=140，看起来亏了，但她还可以接盘英伟达正股继续持有等待反弹。</p><p>所以这单 <a data-mention-id=\"NVDA 20260116 80.0 CALL\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"NVDA\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/NVDA%2020260116%2080.0%20CALL\">$NVDA 20260116 80.0 CALL$</a>的优点是，花6000块就可以买100股英伟达！</p><p>资金不太充裕想加杠杆但相对保守的朋友可以试试。</p><p>本周机构sellcall行权价是140:</p><ul style=\"\"><li><p> 买<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/NVDA 20250124 140.0 CALL\">$NVDA 20250124 140.0 CALL$ </a> </p></li><li><p>卖 <a data-mention-id=\"NVDA 20250124 146.0 CALL\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"NVDA\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/NVDA%2020250124%20146.0%20CALL\">$NVDA 20250124 146.0 CALL$</a> </p></li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/044a4bd9cbba4172967716cdb73a6335\" tg-width=\"2568\" tg-height=\"262\"></p><p>我觉得有概率会突破140，本周收盘130～140或者130～146。</p><p>周三奈飞财报不会差，理论上大盘不会回调，英伟达会继续涨。</p><p>下周比较关键，那个会说good afternoon的男人要来了。</p><p>我选择是卖145call <a data-mention-id=\"NVDA 20250131 145.0 CALL\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"NVDA\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/NVDA%2020250131%20145.0%20CALL\">$NVDA 20250131 145.0 CALL$</a> 以及卖125put <a data-mention-id=\"NVDA 20250131 125.0 PUT\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"NVDA\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/NVDA%2020250131%20125.0%20PUT\">$NVDA 20250131 125.0 PUT$</a> </p></body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body><p> <a data-mention-id=\"AAPL\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"苹果\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">$苹果(AAPL)$</a> </p><p>苹果近期有两个利空，一是周二披露佩洛西卖了3.16万股苹果股票，二是上周台积电财报显示收入环比下降受到智能手机的季节性因素影响。</p><p>股价自高点260回调至220，回到川普竞选总统成功之前。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a338668d846ae2a705e12e3093646d9f\" tg-width=\"1996\" tg-height=\"1440\"></p><p>考虑佩洛西14号卖出股票，经过周二回调，看起来是不错的抄底或者sell put机会，那么实际情况如何呢？</p><p>根据期权开仓明细，看跌期权开仓做空指向性非常强，下跌目标指向210、200、180：</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a629fd387dc954ff5a32a9421294068b\" tg-width=\"780\" tg-height=\"898\"></p><p>这次排序按未平仓数量，因为苹果大跌趋势已走完半个月，如此大趋势肯定有空头提前布局，未平仓数量可以更明确的看出来。</p><p>比如查看2026年到期180put <a data-mention-id=\"AAPL 20260116 180.0 PUT\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"AAPL\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/AAPL%2020260116%20180.0%20PUT\">$AAPL 20260116 180.0 PUT$</a> ，大单在12月19日买入，而排名靠前的其他看跌期权比如 <a data-mention-id=\"AAPL 20250321 200.0 PUT\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"AAPL\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/AAPL%2020250321%20200.0%20PUT\">$AAPL 20250321 200.0 PUT$</a> 开仓日期也近似。可以判定180、200、210皆为本次做空目标价。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8254aa8da3fbac4755f771a9a55fda36\" tg-width=\"1170\" tg-height=\"2074\"></p><p>不过个人以为210也就差不多了，下周苹果财报，财报前暴跌财报后大概率反弹。我选择sell put200 <a data-mention-id=\"AAPL 20250131 200.0 PUT\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"AAPL\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/AAPL%2020250131%20200.0%20PUT\">$AAPL 20250131 200.0 PUT$</a> </p><p>180跟200行权价可能是配合大盘暴跌的极端情况，但13号当周空头并没有砸下去，所以近期应该不需要考虑这个目标价。</p><p> <a data-mention-id=\"TSM\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"台积电\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSM\">$台积电(TSM)$</a> </p><p>大单roll仓买入200call <a data-mention-id=\"TSM 20250516 200.0 CALL\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"TSM\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/TSM%2020250516%20200.0%20CALL\">$TSM 20250516 200.0 CALL$</a> ，2万手</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d449a237d2fe0e2c09bb2d531cf18237\" tg-width=\"2558\" tg-height=\"144\"></p><p>近期特斯拉不好做，我就sell put台积电了 <a data-mention-id=\"TSM 20250131 200.0 PUT\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"TSM\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/TSM%2020250131%20200.0%20PUT\">$TSM 20250131 200.0 PUT$</a> </p><p> <a data-mention-id=\"NVDA\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"英伟达\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">$英伟达(NVDA)$</a> </p><p>佩洛西披露在1月14日买了50手 <a data-mention-id=\"NVDA 20260116 80.0 CALL\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"NVDA\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/NVDA%2020260116%2080.0%20CALL\">$NVDA 20260116 80.0 CALL$</a> ，可能在大家看来80是在是太价内了，但我觉得这个行权价对于佩洛西来说颇为激进。</p><p>出于各种各样的理由，75～90的put开仓量很大，也就是说英伟达跌到这个区间不无可能，要知道平价call到期价格为0，80call有概率跌到0。</p><p>不过她敢买说明年底不可能低于80以下，虽然这个背书很没用，但也算是背书了。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/057227411ed9d99f22bf7ac95c6454dc\" tg-width=\"1044\" tg-height=\"516\"></p><p>有钱人投资第一想法是保本，虽然期权保本听起来很无厘头，不过跟价外或者平价行权价相比，极度价内在可能亏损情况下给出了行权选项。比如明年到期英伟达100块，佩洛西本次行权价+成交价=140，看起来亏了，但她还可以接盘英伟达正股继续持有等待反弹。</p><p>所以这单 <a data-mention-id=\"NVDA 20260116 80.0 CALL\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"NVDA\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/NVDA%2020260116%2080.0%20CALL\">$NVDA 20260116 80.0 CALL$</a>的优点是，花6000块就可以买100股英伟达！</p><p>资金不太充裕想加杠杆但相对保守的朋友可以试试。</p><p>本周机构sellcall行权价是140:</p><ul style=\"\"><li><p> 买<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/NVDA 20250124 140.0 CALL\">$NVDA 20250124 140.0 CALL$ </a> </p></li><li><p>卖 <a data-mention-id=\"NVDA 20250124 146.0 CALL\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"NVDA\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/NVDA%2020250124%20146.0%20CALL\">$NVDA 20250124 146.0 CALL$</a> </p></li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/044a4bd9cbba4172967716cdb73a6335\" tg-width=\"2568\" tg-height=\"262\"></p><p>我觉得有概率会突破140，本周收盘130～140或者130～146。</p><p>周三奈飞财报不会差，理论上大盘不会回调，英伟达会继续涨。</p><p>下周比较关键，那个会说good afternoon的男人要来了。</p><p>我选择是卖145call <a data-mention-id=\"NVDA 20250131 145.0 CALL\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"NVDA\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/NVDA%2020250131%20145.0%20CALL\">$NVDA 20250131 145.0 CALL$</a> 以及卖125put <a data-mention-id=\"NVDA 20250131 125.0 PUT\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"NVDA\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/NVDA%2020250131%20125.0%20PUT\">$NVDA 20250131 125.0 PUT$</a> </p></body></html>","text":"$苹果(AAPL)$ 苹果近期有两个利空，一是周二披露佩洛西卖了3.16万股苹果股票，二是上周台积电财报显示收入环比下降受到智能手机的季节性因素影响。 股价自高点260回调至220，回到川普竞选总统成功之前。 考虑佩洛西14号卖出股票，经过周二回调，看起来是不错的抄底或者sell put机会，那么实际情况如何呢？ 根据期权开仓明细，看跌期权开仓做空指向性非常强，下跌目标指向210、200、180： 这次排序按未平仓数量，因为苹果大跌趋势已走完半个月，如此大趋势肯定有空头提前布局，未平仓数量可以更明确的看出来。 比如查看2026年到期180put $AAPL 20260116 180.0 PUT$ ，大单在12月19日买入，而排名靠前的其他看跌期权比如 $AAPL 20250321 200.0 PUT$ 开仓日期也近似。可以判定180、200、210皆为本次做空目标价。 不过个人以为210也就差不多了，下周苹果财报，财报前暴跌财报后大概率反弹。我选择sell put200 $AAPL 20250131 200.0 PUT$ 180跟200行权价可能是配合大盘暴跌的极端情况，但13号当周空头并没有砸下去，所以近期应该不需要考虑这个目标价。 $台积电(TSM)$ 大单roll仓买入200call $TSM 20250516 200.0 CALL$ ，2万手 近期特斯拉不好做，我就sell put台积电了 $TSM 20250131 200.0 PUT$ $英伟达(NVDA)$ 佩洛西披露在1月14日买了50手 $NVDA 20260116 80.0 CALL$ ，可能在大家看来80是在是太价内了，但我觉得这个行权价对于佩洛西来说颇为激进。 出于各种各样的理由，75～90的put开仓量很大，也就是说英伟达跌到这个区间不无可能，要知道平价call到期价格为0，80call有概率跌到0。 不过她敢买说明年底不可能低于80以下，虽然这个背书很没用，但也算是背书了。 有钱人投资第一想法是保本，虽然期权保本听起来很无厘头，不过跟价外或者平价行权价相比，极度价内在可能亏损情况下给出了行权选项。比如明年到期英伟达100块，佩洛西本次行权价+成交价=140，看起来亏了，但她还可以接盘英伟达正股继续持有等待反弹。 所以这单 $NVDA 20260116 80.0 CALL$的优点是，花6000块就可以买100股英伟达！ 资金不太充裕想加杠杆但相对保守的朋友可以试试。 本周机构sellcall行权价是140: 买$NVDA 20250124 140.0 CALL$ 卖 $NVDA 20250124 146.0 CALL$ 我觉得有概率会突破140，本周收盘130～140或者130～146。 周三奈飞财报不会差，理论上大盘不会回调，英伟达会继续涨。 下周比较关键，那个会说good afternoon的男人要来了。 我选择是卖145call $NVDA 20250131 145.0 CALL$ 以及卖125put $NVDA 20250131 125.0 PUT$","highlighted":1,"essential":2,"paper":2,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/395045883162904","repostId":0,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"commentLimit":10,"symbols":["NVDA","AAPL","TSM","NVDA 20260116 80.0 CALL","AAPL 20260116 180.0 PUT"],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":1906,"optionInvolvedFlag":true,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1151,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":27,"optionInvolvedFlag":false,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/395209668932192"}
精彩评论