$亚马逊(AMZN)_老虎社区_美港股上老虎 - 老虎社区

韭菜馅饺子的文化

$亚马逊(AMZN)$ 亚马逊从1997年上市至今股价上涨2000倍，但其间有63个季度出现单日跌幅超10%。晨星公司统计显示，持股周期超过5年的投资者，获得正收益概率达89%，而1年期仅68%。正如格雷厄姆所言："短期是投票机，长期是称重机"。

免责声明：上述内容仅代表发帖人个人观点，不构成本平台的任何投资建议。

精彩评论

ckxy2008
2025-02-05
ckxy2008
你这句话不是正说明应该看空吗[笑哭]每次"跌幅10%后拉回"不正是加大了下一次"跌10%后拉不回"的概率吗？就好比一个盒子里有10个白球一个黑球，每一次"拿出来是白球"不正是加大了"下一次是黑球"的概率吗
- ckxy2008回复bensun96:
  胜利10次最终涨100%，失败10次最终跌45%，合理价位就是最终上涨10%，这就是市场
- ckxy2008回复bensun96:
  因为前一次拉回来了啊，那后一次拉回来的概率就低了一些，市场永远是趋向平均，胜利和失败的次数是一致的，最终的涨幅是胜利-失败的差
- xxfc:
  你真一个学概率的好手
- bensun96:
  前一次下跌为什么会加大下次下跌拉不回的概率？

发表看法

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