纳指100逼近200日均线

震哥的投资世界

最近几天纳指100逼近200日均线，受群友启发，震哥拉了一张图：看看最近几年纳指100接近或跌破200日均线的情况

最近5年有5次跌破或接近的情况

(1) 20年疫情: 3-4月跌破200日均线，美联储量化宽松后收复

(2) 22年加息周期：长期跌破，直到23年才收复

(3) 23年3月硅谷银行：逼近拉起

(4) 24年8月日本加息，非农不及预期：跌破拉起，时间持续很短

(5) 现在周4接近200日均线

图片

震哥的结论：

没有系统性风险的时候（比如疫情，恶性通胀，流动性危机），纳指100很难长时间跌破200日均线

那么这次面临系统性风险吗？

风险提示：文中看法可能充满笔者个人偏见或错误。提及的任何个股或基金，不作为买入建议，请坚持独立思考。

$纳指100ETF(QQQ)$

.SPX收创新高！可以博年末反弹吗？

科技股力挺三大美股指低开高走、四连阳，标普收创最高纪录，大家看好‘圣诞行情’延续吗？现在你的操作策略是？

免责声明：上述内容仅代表发帖人个人观点，不构成本平台的任何投资建议。

精彩评论

akone
03-04
akone
美股是否有系统性风险？
- goog:
  有
- 长期复利主义_888:
  没有
震哥的投资世界
03-04
震哥的投资世界
我认为目前没有。更多是波动和反身性
影枫16
03-03
影枫16
跟进[开心]

发表看法

5

8

2

{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"detailType":1,"isChannel":false,"data":{"magic":2,"id":409406152245440,"tweetId":"409406152245440","gmtCreate":1740970604628,"gmtModify":1740971287008,"author":{"id":4181702873238012,"idStr":"4181702873238012","authorId":4181702873238012,"authorIdStr":"4181702873238012","name":"震哥的投资世界","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d0bfc14d49741090471e7a2b297d3c61","vip":2,"userType":2,"introduction":"全球投资深度分析：美股，美债，公司估值，ETF趋势，宏观分析","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"currentWearingBadge":{"badgeId":"3f8f4b8c193b4343a88817ce07587dbd-1","templateUuid":"3f8f4b8c193b4343a88817ce07587dbd","name":"星级创作者","description":"累计发表精华帖>=3（或有料帖>=10），且30天内发表过至少一篇精华帖（或4篇有料帖）并参与过评论","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1866dcf97a73be1c330f85862546aedc","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4f5c5fa8e2c7683bb5a7fce8753ee456","redirectLinkEnabled":1,"redirectLink":"https://www.laohu8.com/activity/market/2023/star-contributors/","hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":1,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2024.08.29","individualDisplayEnabled":0},"individualDisplayBadges":[],"fanSize":369,"starInvestorFlag":true,"fullDisclosureFlag":false,"starInvestorFollowerNum":127,"starInvestorOrderShareNum":37,"userFollowInvestorFlag":false,"orderNotificationFlag":false,"showRor":false,"winRationPercentage":67.676768,"tradeVolumeEst":0},"themes":[{"themeId":"fb0b8a84b3ed43f49e4a9bb328a89463","categoryId":"954722eadb8644018a4a5056fc8176eb","name":".SPX收创新高！可以博年末反弹吗？","type":0,"rnLink":"https://laohu8.com/RN?name=RNTheme&page=/theme/detail&rndata={\"themeId\":fb0b8a84b3ed43f49e4a9bb328a89463}&rnconfig={\"headerBarHidden\": true}","description":"科技股力挺三大美股指低开高走、四连阳，标普收创最高纪录，大家看好‘圣诞行情’延续吗？现在你的操作策略是？\n","image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8acef5151539d2ccaf851aabab65dd19"}],"images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8773beecd884c4ab040c47ee3d4a877c","width":"1080","height":"592"}],"coverImages":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8773beecd884c4ab040c47ee3d4a877c","width":"1080","height":"592"}],"title":"纳指100逼近200日均线","html":"<html><head></head><body><p>最近几天纳指100逼近200日均线，受群友启发，震哥拉了一张图：看看最近几年纳指100接近或跌破200日均线的情况</p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>最近5年有5次跌破或接近的情况</strong></p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">(1) 20年疫情: 3-4月跌破200日均线，美联储量化宽松后收复</p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">(2) 22年加息周期：长期跌破，直到23年才收复</p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">(3) 23年3月硅谷银行：逼近拉起</p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">(4) 24年8月日本加息，非农不及预期：跌破拉起，时间持续很短</p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">(5) 现在周4接近200日均线</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8773beecd884c4ab040c47ee3d4a877c\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"592\"><span>图片</span></p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>震哥的结论：</strong></p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>没有系统性风险的时候（比如疫情，恶性通胀，流动性危机），纳指100很难长时间跌破200日均线</strong></p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>那么这次面临系统性风险吗？</strong></p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong><em>风险提示：文中看法可能充满笔者个人偏见或错误。提及的任何个股或基金，不作为买入建议，请坚持独立思考。</em></strong></p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QQQ\">$纳指100ETF(QQQ)$</a></p></body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body><p>最近几天纳指100逼近200日均线，受群友启发，震哥拉了一张图：看看最近几年纳指100接近或跌破200日均线的情况</p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>最近5年有5次跌破或接近的情况</strong></p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">(1) 20年疫情: 3-4月跌破200日均线，美联储量化宽松后收复</p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">(2) 22年加息周期：长期跌破，直到23年才收复</p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">(3) 23年3月硅谷银行：逼近拉起</p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">(4) 24年8月日本加息，非农不及预期：跌破拉起，时间持续很短</p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">(5) 现在周4接近200日均线</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8773beecd884c4ab040c47ee3d4a877c\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"592\"><span>图片</span></p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>震哥的结论：</strong></p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>没有系统性风险的时候（比如疫情，恶性通胀，流动性危机），纳指100很难长时间跌破200日均线</strong></p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>那么这次面临系统性风险吗？</strong></p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong><em>风险提示：文中看法可能充满笔者个人偏见或错误。提及的任何个股或基金，不作为买入建议，请坚持独立思考。</em></strong></p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QQQ\">$纳指100ETF(QQQ)$</a></p></body></html>","text":"最近几天纳指100逼近200日均线，受群友启发，震哥拉了一张图：看看最近几年纳指100接近或跌破200日均线的情况 最近5年有5次跌破或接近的情况 (1) 20年疫情: 3-4月跌破200日均线，美联储量化宽松后收复 (2) 22年加息周期：长期跌破，直到23年才收复 (3) 23年3月硅谷银行：逼近拉起 (4) 24年8月日本加息，非农不及预期：跌破拉起，时间持续很短 (5) 现在周4接近200日均线 图片 震哥的结论： 没有系统性风险的时候（比如疫情，恶性通胀，流动性危机），纳指100很难长时间跌破200日均线 那么这次面临系统性风险吗？ 风险提示：文中看法可能充满笔者个人偏见或错误。提及的任何个股或基金，不作为买入建议，请坚持独立思考。 $纳指100ETF(QQQ)$","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":5,"repostSize":2,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/409406152245440","repostId":0,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5578,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":["QQQ"],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":553,"optionInvolvedFlag":false,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[{"id":409736541413928,"commentId":"409736541413928","gmtCreate":1741042996431,"gmtModify":1741052142103,"authorId":3579471235839641,"author":{"id":3579471235839641,"idStr":"3579471235839641","authorId":3579471235839641,"name":"akone","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":409406152245440,"objectIdStr":"409406152245440","type":1,"supId":0,"supIdStr":"0","prevId":0,"prevIdStr":"0","content":"<p>美股是否有系统性风险？</p>","text":"<p>美股是否有系统性风险？</p>","html":"<p>美股是否有系统性风险？</p>","likeSize":0,"commentSize":2,"subComments":[{"id":409956100559512,"commentId":"409956100559512","gmtCreate":1741096862676,"gmtModify":1741096866419,"authorId":3458972206881921,"author":{"id":3458972206881921,"idStr":"3458972206881921","authorId":3458972206881921,"name":"goog","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":409406152245440,"objectIdStr":"409406152245440","type":1,"supId":409736541413928,"supIdStr":"409736541413928","prevId":0,"prevIdStr":"0","content":"有","text":"有","html":"有","disclaimerType":0},{"id":409832882078048,"commentId":"409832882078048","gmtCreate":1741066830075,"gmtModify":1741066833779,"authorId":3557632974309611,"author":{"id":3557632974309611,"idStr":"3557632974309611","authorId":3557632974309611,"name":"长期复利主义_888","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4ea7c1c0f62cec00eb323b142830229a","vip":1,"currentWearingBadge":{"badgeId":"518b5610c3e8410da5cfad115e4b0f5a-1","templateUuid":"518b5610c3e8410da5cfad115e4b0f5a","name":"实盘交易者","description":"完成一笔实盘交易","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2e08a1cc2087a1de93402c2c290fa65b","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4504a6397ce1137932d56e5f4ce27166","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b22c79415b4cd6e3d8ebc4a0fa32604","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":1,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2021.12.21","individualDisplayEnabled":0,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1100},"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":409406152245440,"objectIdStr":"409406152245440","type":1,"supId":409736541413928,"supIdStr":"409736541413928","prevId":0,"prevIdStr":"0","content":"没有","text":"没有","html":"没有","disclaimerType":0}],"verified":10,"allocateAmount":0,"commentType":"valid","coins":0,"score":0,"disclaimerType":0},{"id":409842737816216,"commentId":"409842737816216","gmtCreate":1741069186217,"gmtModify":1741071202224,"authorId":4181702873238012,"author":{"id":4181702873238012,"idStr":"4181702873238012","authorId":4181702873238012,"name":"震哥的投资世界","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d0bfc14d49741090471e7a2b297d3c61","vip":2,"currentWearingBadge":{"badgeId":"3f8f4b8c193b4343a88817ce07587dbd-1","templateUuid":"3f8f4b8c193b4343a88817ce07587dbd","name":"星级创作者","description":"累计发表精华帖>=3（或有料帖>=10），且30天内发表过至少一篇精华帖（或4篇有料帖）并参与过评论","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1866dcf97a73be1c330f85862546aedc","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4f5c5fa8e2c7683bb5a7fce8753ee456","redirectLinkEnabled":1,"redirectLink":"https://www.laohu8.com/activity/market/2023/star-contributors/","hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":1,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2024.08.29","individualDisplayEnabled":0,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":2007},"crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":409406152245440,"objectIdStr":"409406152245440","type":1,"supId":0,"supIdStr":"0","prevId":0,"prevIdStr":"0","content":"我认为目前没有。更多是波动和反身性","text":"我认为目前没有。更多是波动和反身性","html":"我认为目前没有。更多是波动和反身性","likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"subComments":[],"verified":10,"allocateAmount":0,"commentType":"valid","coins":0,"score":0,"disclaimerType":0},{"id":409516816798360,"commentId":"409516816798360","gmtCreate":1740989615656,"gmtModify":1740989619378,"authorId":4192144422425150,"author":{"id":4192144422425150,"idStr":"4192144422425150","authorId":4192144422425150,"name":"影枫16","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f7462462b6aabd8817da696a8c63632f","vip":1,"currentWearingBadge":{"badgeId":"02aa7f16703b4ce4ace6f1a7665789cc-1","templateUuid":"02aa7f16703b4ce4ace6f1a7665789cc","name":"知识体验官","description":"观看学堂课程满5节","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fb5ae275631fb96a92d475cdc85d2302","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c2660a1935bd2105e97c9915619936c3","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":1,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2025.02.26","individualDisplayEnabled":0,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":2006},"crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":409406152245440,"objectIdStr":"409406152245440","type":1,"supId":0,"supIdStr":"0","prevId":0,"prevIdStr":"0","content":"跟进[开心]","text":"跟进[开心]","html":"跟进[开心]","likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"subComments":[],"verified":10,"allocateAmount":0,"commentType":"valid","coins":0,"score":0,"disclaimerType":0}],"isCommentEnd":false,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/409406152245440"}