粮厂研究员Will | 小米集团投资十问（下）

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粮厂研究员Will | 小米集团投资十问（上）

粮厂研究员Will | 小米集团投资十问（中）

Baillie Gifford的成长股十问的最后一辑：

第八：公司如何分配自己的资本？

Q8: How do you deploy your capital? 

小米集团对于资本的分配逻辑极具雷军的个人特色；简单而言，就是雷军在接受央视采访时提到的“极度保守下的极度冒进”。

Xiaomi's approach to capital allocation reflects Lei Jun’s unique style, often described as a blend of boldness and caution. In simple terms, it embodies what Lei Jun refers to as “extreme aggressiveness under extreme conservatism,” a philosophy he shared in an interview with Chinese media.

首先，小米一直预留着充分的现金为潜在的危机和寒冬做准备；截止2024年3季度，小米集团的现金储备高达1,516亿元人民币，而超过千亿的现金储备安排已经维持了十几个季度。这其实是雷军于早期金山创业时学到的教训，在和微软竞争的困难时刻，一度面临发不出工资的困境。这段经历让雷军深刻认识到现金流对于企业的重要性，并在多个公开场合表示过：“我一定要在公司账上留一笔现金，天塌下来不许动，确保员工18个月工资发放。”  同时，这些现金也让小米有直面危机、进行转型的底气；例如在2021年3月宣布进入烧钱的新能源汽车行业时，雷军告诉每个投资人小米已经准备好了100亿美金。

Xiaomi has always prioritized maintaining strong cash reserves to safeguard against crises and downturns. As of 2024 Q3, their cash reserves reached an impressive 151.6 billion yuan, consistently exceeding 100 billion yuan for over a dozen quarters. This prudent strategy is rooted in a valuable lesson Lei Jun learned during his early entrepreneurial days at Kingsoft. He faced difficulty competing with Microsoft and even struggled to pay his employees. This challenging experience highlighted the crucial role of cash flow, leading him to repeatedly declare, 'I will keep a sum of cash in the company's account, untouched even if the sky falls, to ensure we can pay our employees for 18 months.' These substantial reserves enhance Xiaomi’s resilience during challenges and empower it to embrace new transformations. For instance, in March 2021, when Xiaomi announced its plans to enter the capital-intensive new energy vehicle sector, Lei Jun confidently informed investors that the company had already set aside 10 billion US dollars for this leap.

其次，在”极度的保守“之外，小米资本分配的”极度冒进“有三个主要方向：

Beyond the idea of caution, Xiaomi's bold approach to capital allocation can be broken down into three key areas:

1. 硬核技术的研发：自有披露的财务数据以来，无论面临何种困难的局面，小米每个季度的研发费用支出都是同比正增长的。从2018年的不到百亿研发支出，到2023年160亿元人民币研发支出跨入中国民营企业前十名，再到2025年预计超过300亿元人民币，足以看出小米对于硬核技术的重视。技术研发的另一个审视维度就是技术人才。截至2024年Q3，小米的研发团队已经达到20,436人，占员工总数的48.6%；前文也提到雷军致力于构建公司层面的宽容文化，让更多的技术/产品大牛们愿意加入小米。

1. Focusing on core technology R&D: Since Xiaomi started sharing its financial data, its commitment to R&D has never faltered, even amidst obstacles. In just a few years, R&D spending grew from less than 10 billion yuan in 2018 to an impressive 16 billion yuan in 2023, positioning them among China's top ten private enterprises. By 2025, they expect to invest over 30 billion yuan, showcasing their strong dedication to advancing core technology. Another essential factor to consider is the talent behind the R&D. As of 2024 Q3, Xiaomi's R&D team comprises 20,436 engineers, representing 48.6% of their total workforce. Lei Jun’s vision of fostering a supportive corporate culture encourages an influx of talented technical and product experts to join Xiaomi.

2. 由轻向重的转变：小米已不再是15年前刚起步时那个只追求”极致轻盈“的公司，而是在当下致力于构建“软硬结合”和“人车家全生态”的战略矩阵。换句话说，就是小米对于智能手机、IoT和电动汽车的所有核心产品，都要考虑软件和硬件上资源配置的平衡。以产品制造为例，小米逐渐从过往的代工生产的轻模式向自建工厂的重模式转变。从2019年小米首座智能手机一期”无人工厂“在北京亦庄投产，目前又陆续加入了北京昌平智能手机工厂二期（2024年）、北京亦庄汽车超级工厂一期（2024年），2025年我们还将看到北京汽车超级工厂二期和武汉智能家电工厂的落成。雷军在2025年的公开场合表示过：“未来10年小米还将建设至少20座世界级工厂，进一步加强小米在智能制造领域的布局”。

2. Shifting from light to heavy models: Xiaomi has evolved significantly since its inception 15 years ago; it’s no longer merely focused on ‘extreme lightness’. Instead, they’re actively developing a strategic framework integrating software and hardware into a comprehensive ecosystem of people, vehicles, and homes. This means balancing resource allocation across core products like smartphones, IoT devices, and EVs. For example, in product manufacturing, Xiaomi is transitioning from a light outsourced model to a more robust approach that involves constructing their own factories. They initiated this journey with the first phase of a fully automated smartphone factory in Beijing, which began operations in 2019. Since then, they’ve opened additional facilities, including the second phase of the Beijing Changping smartphone factory and the first phase of the Beijing Yizhuang automotive super factory, both set for completion in 2024. By 2025, the second phase of the automotive super factory and the Wuhan smart home appliance factory will also be operational. Lei Jun stated in 2025, ‘Over the next 10 years, Xiaomi will construct at least 20 top-tier factories to enhance our position in intelligent manufacturing.’

3. 风口赛道的押注：关注雷军的投资者会看到他的微博签名里，最后一个身份描述是“天使投资人”；而他创办的顺为资本也是中国最好的VC机构之一。作为科技企业的小米，对于未来技术路径和风口的投资也是必不可少的。除了智能电动汽车外，小米（联合顺为）还押注了自动驾驶、XR、芯片、机器人、人工智能（包括大模型）等多个核心风口赛道。雷军在亲自下场造车之前，就是蔚来和小鹏最早一批的风险投资人；在亲自做大模型之前，就已经投遍了国内顶级的人工智能团队。这些投资除了带来财务上的回报外，也可以和小米集团的生态及业务产生高度协同。

3. Investing in promising sectors: Followers of Lei Jun will notice that he often identifies himself on Weibo as a VC investor, reflecting his role in founding Shunwei Capital, one of China’s leading VC firms. As a technology-oriented business, Xiaomi understands the importance of investing in future tech paths and emerging fields. Beyond EVs, Xiaomi and Shunwei have also made strategic investments in several cutting-edge sectors, including autonomous driving, XR, SoC chips, robotics, and AI (including LLMs). Before diving into car manufacturing, Lei Jun was an early venture investor in prominent companies like NIO and XP and had already backed top domestic AI teams before developing Xiaomi’s own LLM. These investments promise financial returns and enhance synergy with Xiaomi's ecosystem and business ventures.

第九：公司价值如何才能增长五倍？

Q9: How could it be worth five times as much or more?

这个问题的答案很大程度已经在前8个问题里覆盖了。简单来说，小米集团价值五倍的原因可以回归投资最基本的要素，那就是“好赛道”和“好团队”（在长期视角来看，我认为好价格并没有那么重要）。

The insights we've already explored in the first eight questions lead us nicely to answer this one. Simply put, the reason why Xiaomi Group holds a five times greater valuation is rooted in some key investment fundamentals: a promising business and an exceptional team. From a long-term viewpoint, price is not the most significant factor in this equation.

首先，小米的赛道是全球市场的消费电子产品。换句话说，就是小米要在中国市场和国际市场出售智能手机、IoT设备和智能电动汽车产品；除了当前赚取硬件的钱，未来还有机会成为AI时代的领先者。仅以智能手机和电动汽车为例，都是已经被充分验证的赛道，分别以苹果和特斯拉作为代表企业。当前苹果和特斯拉的市值总和约为4.5万亿美元，而小米集团的估值约为1700亿美元。诚然，这里面隐含了投资者对于资本市场差异、地缘政治、商业模式、盈利水平等种种因素的考虑；但在我看来，长期视角下小米不会连苹果+特斯拉市值的1/10都不如；更何况这还没有考虑IoT生态和未来AI变现的部分。

To begin with, Xiaomi's business spans the globally competitive consumer electronics market. Their goal is to sell smartphones, IoT devices, and smart electric vehicles in China and worldwide. They are not only generating revenue from hardware sales but are also poised to step into a leadership role in the burgeoning AI landscape of the future. Considering smartphones and EVs only, we have proven markets exemplified by companies like Apple and Tesla. The combined market value of these two giants is approximately 4.5 trillion USD, while Xiaomi Group's valuation is around 170 billion USD. Although this difference can be attributed to various factors—ranging from capital market disparities to geopolitical influences and profit margins—I'm optimistic that, in the long run, Xiaomi will be valued at no less than one-tenth of what Apple and Tesla are worth together. And this doesn’t even include the exciting possibilities within the IoT ecosystem and the prospects of AI monetization.

其次，小米的团队是雷军带领的核心管理层。我一直和所有投资者强调，小米集团最大的无形资产就是雷军个人；因为他在中国企业家里是极其稀缺的“既抬头看路，又脚踏实地，还会停下反思”的存在。抬头看路指的是雷军的战略眼光，脚踏实地指的是雷军的勤奋和亲力亲为，停下反思指的是他不偏见固执和愿意正视问题。每一点展开说，我都可以写成单独的文章，并辅以很多的例证。回到这个问题的答案上，很多投资人和我谈到小米投资的确定性，而我的答案是：最大的确定性其实是人，有正值巅峰状态的雷军为投资者打工，这远比拍脑袋小米5-10年的营收和利润来的确定。

Secondly, at the heart of Xiaomi's success is its remarkable team, particularly the leadership of Lei Jun. I've always believed—and shared this with fellow investors—that the most significant intangible asset Xiaomi possesses is Lei Jun himself. He is a truly unique figure among Chinese entrepreneurs, embodying the ability to envision the future while also remaining grounded and willing to reflect on challenges. "Envisioning the future" speaks to his strategic foresight and ambition, whereas "remaining grounded" highlights his dedication and hands-on approach. “Willingness to reflect” showcases his openness to tackle issues thoughtfully. While I could write a whole article with just examples on each point, the crux is that many investors have discussed with me the certainty of investing in Xiaomi. My consistent response is that the greatest certainty comes to the people involved. Having Lei Jun—at the pinnacle of his career—driving efforts for investors is significantly more reassuring than making uncertain predictions about Xiaomi's revenue and profit over the next 5-10 years.

第十：市场为什么没有预期到这些？

Q10: Why doesn’t the market realize this?

在我看来，市场对于小米的预期偏离主要来自于两个原因：误解太深和复杂性太强。

The market's differing expectations for Xiaomi can be traced back to a couple of factors: ongoing misunderstandings and the inherent complexity of its business.

首先，市场对小米的误解和偏见太深。小米在很长一段时间里，都被打上了“中低端”和“质量差”的刻板烙印，资本市场对于小米“性价比模式”的理解也存在偏见。即便当下浏览中国的社交媒体，会发现对小米的误解和恶意依然随处可见。我一度对这些现象非常沮丧，直到发现很多的消费电子巨头，例如三星、索尼甚至苹果，都曾有一段被资本市场和消费者误解的时光。我相信随着小米品牌和高端化战略的不断推进，市场会逐渐理解小米的真正价值。

To start with, misconceptions and biases against Xiaomi run pretty deep. For many years, Xiaomi has been unfairly pigeonholed as a "mid-to-low-end" brand with "poor quality." There’s also a tendency in the capital market to be skeptical of Xiaomi's "cost-performance model." Even today, if you look at Chinese social media, you’ll find that many people still harbor misunderstandings about Xiaomi. I used to feel frustrated about this situation. Still, I realized that even major consumer electronics companies like Samsung, Sony, and Apple faced their fair share of misconceptions from both the capital market and consumers. I genuinely believe that as Xiaomi works on enhancing its brand and high-end strategy, people will slowly start to recognize Xiaomi's actual value.

其次，小米商业模式的复杂性太强。小米的商业模式从品类上，有智能手机、电动汽车还有无数IoT设备；从方法上，要自研软件，自建硬件，还要AI赋能全部。我在同一家券商研究所里，看到过电子研究员、互联网研究员和汽车研究员同时覆盖小米，但每个人似乎都只能看到小米的一个侧面。更为重要的是，雷军领导的小米还在不断自我迭代和进化，几乎每3年都会和过去很不一样；这让很多传统的基金经理放弃了去理解小米的勇气和耐心，而倾向去拥抱护城河更容易理解的公司，例如茅台和腾讯。

Additionally, Xiaomi's business model is quite intricate. It includes many products like smartphones, electric vehicles, and IoT devices. The company employs self-developed software, custom hardware, and AI enhancements. In the same securities research institute, I've noticed that electronics, internet, and automotive researchers investigate Xiaomi, but each tends to focus on just one facet of the brand. The most crucial part is that, under Lei Jun's leadership, Xiaomi continuously innovates and transforms itself, making it almost unrecognizable every few years. This has understandably caused some traditional fund managers to shy away from grasping Xiaomi’s potential and instead lean towards companies with more straightforward business models, like Moutai and Tencent.

历史告诉我们，市场的预期总会随着时间的推移慢慢收敛，股票的估值也会随着时间的推移回到公允价值。而我一直相信的是：

History has shown that market expectations tend to align over time, and stock valuations eventually settle at their fair values. What I firmly believe is this:

时间在小米这边。

Time is on Xiaomi's side.

粮厂研究员Will

2025年3月10日 于香港