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@期权小班长：内幕大单为何偏爱2027年到期期权

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Options Buyer Bets Some $3 Billion on US Stock Rally，中文翻译是神秘期权买家押注约30亿美元押注美国股市上涨。</p><p>文章说野村策略师发现近一个月以来多只科技股远期到期看涨期权有大量开仓交易，多远期呢，2027年6月到期。根据统计这些期权交易的总期权金接近30亿美元。</p><p>在给客户的报告里，野村跨资产策略师例举了亚马逊，crm和arm三只股票：期权买家在购买平价期权上，分别花了3.16亿美元购买了亚⻢逊，Salesforce1.59亿美元， 和ARM控股公司8.78亿美元。</p><p>更具体的例子是amr，文章里提到5月21日周三当日2027年6⽉到期的130call <a title=\"$ARM 20270617 130.0 CALL$\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/ARM%2020270617%20130.0%20CALL\">$ARM 20270617 130.0 CALL$</a> 成交了2,200⼿，期权费总计1,040万美元。</p><p>提起2027年这个特殊的年份，应该有人记得我在月初就发现的猫腻：</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4511be83dae55bdd9f7913b10e0c6e2e\" tg-width=\"1630\" tg-height=\"842\"></p><p>趁此机会我们重新梳理一下，检查2027这个年份，尤其是6月到期看涨期权是否真受内幕偏爱。首先来看彭博文中提到的amzn，crm和arm这三只股票2027年6月到期看涨期权的未平仓情况，数据截止周三5月21日。</p><p><a data-mention-id=\"ARM\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"ARM Holdings\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ARM\">$ARM Holdings(ARM)$</a></p><p>将2027年到期数据按未平仓数量排序，除了特意提到 130call<a data-mention-id=\"ARM 20270617 130.0 CALL\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"ARM\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/ARM%2020270617%20130.0%20CALL\">$ARM 20270617 130.0 CALL$</a> ，125call <a data-mention-id=\"ARM 20270617 125.0 CALL\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"ARM\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/ARM%2020270617%20125.0%20CALL\">$ARM 20270617 125.0 CALL$</a> ，105call <a data-mention-id=\"ARM 20270617 105.0 CALL\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"ARM\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/ARM%2020270617%20105.0%20CALL\">$ARM 20270617 105.0 CALL$</a> 和120call <a data-mention-id=\"ARM 20270617 120.0 CALL\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"ARM\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/ARM%2020270617%20120.0%20CALL\">$ARM 20270617 120.0 CALL$</a> 的未平仓数据也很高。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fda813ad8370c9b76d644e4c0bc76093\" tg-width=\"524\" tg-height=\"1024\"></p><p>虽然看成交情况可以发现这四个期权都符合近一个月内开仓这个条件，但130calll<a data-mention-id=\"ARM 20270617 130.0 CALL\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"ARM\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/ARM%2020270617%20130.0%20CALL\">$ARM 20270617 130.0 CALL$</a> 明显区别于另外三个期权，最早开仓是在5月14日已经连续数日开仓。</p><p>5月14日距离中美周末谈判已过去三天，市场刚好把关税和谈利好消化完。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7e48fdb68d64b5ceaaf0d8a82613d62e\" tg-width=\"2008\" tg-height=\"1436\"></p><p>跟130call高位开仓相比，125call，105call 和120call交易时间更靠前。虽然时间只有短短一月，但4月20日买入还是5月20日买入，开仓逻辑差异极大，所以我不太认同这是同一位交易者所为。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9485f19bffbd843eca9fc26ed889a6e8\" tg-width=\"2020\" tg-height=\"1446\"></p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f1149527854e2435bde0b85e780506ff\" tg-width=\"2018\" tg-height=\"1432\"></p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/befd763a95dbe6efc28b700e3972ac5a\" tg-width=\"2026\" tg-height=\"1430\"></p><p><a data-mention-id=\"AMZN\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"亚马逊\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">$亚马逊(AMZN)$</a></p><p>亚马逊2027年到期的期权按未平仓排序，依然考察平价期权，可以发现有异动的是180call <a data-mention-id=\"AMZN 20270617 180.0 CALL\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"AMZN\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/AMZN%2020270617%20180.0%20CALL\">$AMZN 20270617 180.0 CALL$</a> 和200call <a data-mention-id=\"AMZN 20270617 200.0 CALL\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"AMZN\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/AMZN%2020270617%20200.0%20CALL\">$AMZN 20270617 200.0 CALL$</a></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fd526f9870f38e5507522508aeeff6f9\" tg-width=\"520\" tg-height=\"1028\"></p><p>180call <a data-mention-id=\"AMZN 20270617 180.0 CALL\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"AMZN\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/AMZN%2020270617%20180.0%20CALL\">$AMZN 20270617 180.0 CALL$</a> 和200call <a data-mention-id=\"AMZN 20270617 200.0 CALL\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"AMZN\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/AMZN%2020270617%20200.0%20CALL\">$AMZN 20270617 200.0 CALL$</a> 的成交风格偏向底部抄底，和<a data-mention-id=\"ARM 20270617 130.0 CALL\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"ARM\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/ARM%2020270617%20130.0%20CALL\">$ARM 20270617 130.0 CALL$</a> 的交易逻辑显著不同。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f9c212746739b4d4729318cf7201fb80\" tg-width=\"2024\" tg-height=\"1428\"></p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a9557789ab633073917cc944f263139e\" tg-width=\"2026\" tg-height=\"1444\"></p><p><a data-mention-id=\"CRM\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"赛富时\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CRM\">$赛富时(CRM)$</a></p><p>相比上面的股票，crm期权成交量较低，所以未平仓很好筛选，就是290call <a data-mention-id=\"CRM 20270617 290.0 CALL\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"CRM\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/CRM%2020270617%20290.0%20CALL\">$CRM 20270617 290.0 CALL$</a></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a9c849d8a37a14d3ad6c169e9320323a\" tg-width=\"520\" tg-height=\"1060\"></p><p>考虑到crm 290call<a data-mention-id=\"CRM 20270617 290.0 CALL\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"CRM\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/CRM%2020270617%20290.0%20CALL\">$CRM 20270617 290.0 CALL$</a> 和arm 130call<a data-mention-id=\"ARM 20270617 130.0 CALL\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"ARM\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/ARM%2020270617%20130.0%20CALL\">$ARM 20270617 130.0 CALL$</a> 交易日比较接近，5月15日和5月14日，这两只期权的异动成交量可能是同一人所为。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2a8157b6771fe8a650575d15d7280a10\" tg-width=\"2026\" tg-height=\"1438\"></p><p><a data-mention-id=\"NVDA\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"英伟达\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">$英伟达(NVDA)$</a></p><p>英伟达作为热门交易标的，2027年到期开仓期权很多，所以单独列出6月到期未平仓数据。重点是 <a data-mention-id=\"NVDA 20270617 105.0 CALL\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"NVDA\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/NVDA%2020270617%20105.0%20CALL\">$NVDA 20270617 105.0 CALL$</a> <a data-mention-id=\"NVDA 20270617 135.0 CALL\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"NVDA\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/NVDA%2020270617%20135.0%20CALL\">$NVDA 20270617 135.0 CALL$</a> <a data-mention-id=\"NVDA 20270617 110.0 CALL\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"NVDA\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/NVDA%2020270617%20110.0%20CALL\">$NVDA 20270617 110.0 CALL$</a> 这三个期权。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4df3a89e319237fa78b0245e345b76c9\" tg-width=\"524\" tg-height=\"578\"></p><p>其中最值得一提的是110call <a data-mention-id=\"NVDA 20270617 110.0 CALL\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"NVDA\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/NVDA%2020270617%20110.0%20CALL\">$NVDA 20270617 110.0 CALL$</a> ，4月29日跟30日买入，5月12日和13日卖出，非常完整的吃完了一段政策利好。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/372c1ceecf076497bedead6e6938dffa\" tg-width=\"2020\" tg-height=\"1440\"></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/02a1dcaabf81ac1603160f40c45a0354\" tg-width=\"2016\" tg-height=\"1434\"></p><p>nvda135call <a data-mention-id=\"NVDA 20270617 135.0 CALL\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"NVDA\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/NVDA%2020270617%20135.0%20CALL\">$NVDA 20270617 135.0 CALL$</a> 和crm 290call<a data-mention-id=\"CRM 20270617 290.0 CALL\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"CRM\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/CRM%2020270617%20290.0%20CALL\">$CRM 20270617 290.0 CALL$</a> 以及arm 130call<a data-mention-id=\"ARM 20270617 130.0 CALL\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"ARM\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/ARM%2020270617%20130.0%20CALL\">$ARM 20270617 130.0 CALL$</a> 比较像是同一人所为。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aecddce048e67b62222861a449afab21\" tg-width=\"2022\" tg-height=\"1440\"></p><p>结论：</p><p>1、底部购买2027年到期平价看涨期权，确实是机构抄底策略之一。</p><p>2、这些期权购买时间点先于特朗普政策发布，并不是偶然一两次。</p><p>3、5月14日之后的交易风格不太一样，可能是不同人模仿开仓，尤其是ARM130call<a data-mention-id=\"ARM 20270617 130.0 CALL\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"ARM\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/ARM%2020270617%20130.0%20CALL\">$ARM 20270617 130.0 CALL$</a> ，不是极致韭菜就是极致内幕。</p><p>4、日后需要将2027年6月到期期权开仓关仓纳入重点观察。</p></body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body><p>这两天彭博发了一篇关于期权大单的文章，叫Mystery Options Buyer Bets Some $3 Billion on US Stock Rally，中文翻译是神秘期权买家押注约30亿美元押注美国股市上涨。</p><p>文章说野村策略师发现近一个月以来多只科技股远期到期看涨期权有大量开仓交易，多远期呢，2027年6月到期。根据统计这些期权交易的总期权金接近30亿美元。</p><p>在给客户的报告里，野村跨资产策略师例举了亚马逊，crm和arm三只股票：期权买家在购买平价期权上，分别花了3.16亿美元购买了亚⻢逊，Salesforce1.59亿美元， 和ARM控股公司8.78亿美元。</p><p>更具体的例子是amr，文章里提到5月21日周三当日2027年6⽉到期的130call <a title=\"$ARM 20270617 130.0 CALL$\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/ARM%2020270617%20130.0%20CALL\">$ARM 20270617 130.0 CALL$</a> 成交了2,200⼿，期权费总计1,040万美元。</p><p>提起2027年这个特殊的年份，应该有人记得我在月初就发现的猫腻：</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4511be83dae55bdd9f7913b10e0c6e2e\" tg-width=\"1630\" tg-height=\"842\"></p><p>趁此机会我们重新梳理一下，检查2027这个年份，尤其是6月到期看涨期权是否真受内幕偏爱。首先来看彭博文中提到的amzn，crm和arm这三只股票2027年6月到期看涨期权的未平仓情况，数据截止周三5月21日。</p><p><a data-mention-id=\"ARM\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"ARM Holdings\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ARM\">$ARM Holdings(ARM)$</a></p><p>将2027年到期数据按未平仓数量排序，除了特意提到 130call<a data-mention-id=\"ARM 20270617 130.0 CALL\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"ARM\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/ARM%2020270617%20130.0%20CALL\">$ARM 20270617 130.0 CALL$</a> ，125call <a data-mention-id=\"ARM 20270617 125.0 CALL\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"ARM\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/ARM%2020270617%20125.0%20CALL\">$ARM 20270617 125.0 CALL$</a> ，105call <a data-mention-id=\"ARM 20270617 105.0 CALL\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"ARM\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/ARM%2020270617%20105.0%20CALL\">$ARM 20270617 105.0 CALL$</a> 和120call <a data-mention-id=\"ARM 20270617 120.0 CALL\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"ARM\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/ARM%2020270617%20120.0%20CALL\">$ARM 20270617 120.0 CALL$</a> 的未平仓数据也很高。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fda813ad8370c9b76d644e4c0bc76093\" tg-width=\"524\" tg-height=\"1024\"></p><p>虽然看成交情况可以发现这四个期权都符合近一个月内开仓这个条件，但130calll<a data-mention-id=\"ARM 20270617 130.0 CALL\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"ARM\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/ARM%2020270617%20130.0%20CALL\">$ARM 20270617 130.0 CALL$</a> 明显区别于另外三个期权，最早开仓是在5月14日已经连续数日开仓。</p><p>5月14日距离中美周末谈判已过去三天，市场刚好把关税和谈利好消化完。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7e48fdb68d64b5ceaaf0d8a82613d62e\" tg-width=\"2008\" tg-height=\"1436\"></p><p>跟130call高位开仓相比，125call，105call 和120call交易时间更靠前。虽然时间只有短短一月，但4月20日买入还是5月20日买入，开仓逻辑差异极大，所以我不太认同这是同一位交易者所为。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9485f19bffbd843eca9fc26ed889a6e8\" tg-width=\"2020\" tg-height=\"1446\"></p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f1149527854e2435bde0b85e780506ff\" tg-width=\"2018\" tg-height=\"1432\"></p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/befd763a95dbe6efc28b700e3972ac5a\" tg-width=\"2026\" tg-height=\"1430\"></p><p><a data-mention-id=\"AMZN\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"亚马逊\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">$亚马逊(AMZN)$</a></p><p>亚马逊2027年到期的期权按未平仓排序，依然考察平价期权，可以发现有异动的是180call <a data-mention-id=\"AMZN 20270617 180.0 CALL\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"AMZN\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/AMZN%2020270617%20180.0%20CALL\">$AMZN 20270617 180.0 CALL$</a> 和200call <a data-mention-id=\"AMZN 20270617 200.0 CALL\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"AMZN\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/AMZN%2020270617%20200.0%20CALL\">$AMZN 20270617 200.0 CALL$</a></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fd526f9870f38e5507522508aeeff6f9\" tg-width=\"520\" tg-height=\"1028\"></p><p>180call <a data-mention-id=\"AMZN 20270617 180.0 CALL\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"AMZN\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/AMZN%2020270617%20180.0%20CALL\">$AMZN 20270617 180.0 CALL$</a> 和200call <a data-mention-id=\"AMZN 20270617 200.0 CALL\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"AMZN\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/AMZN%2020270617%20200.0%20CALL\">$AMZN 20270617 200.0 CALL$</a> 的成交风格偏向底部抄底，和<a data-mention-id=\"ARM 20270617 130.0 CALL\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"ARM\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/ARM%2020270617%20130.0%20CALL\">$ARM 20270617 130.0 CALL$</a> 的交易逻辑显著不同。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f9c212746739b4d4729318cf7201fb80\" tg-width=\"2024\" tg-height=\"1428\"></p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a9557789ab633073917cc944f263139e\" tg-width=\"2026\" tg-height=\"1444\"></p><p><a data-mention-id=\"CRM\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"赛富时\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CRM\">$赛富时(CRM)$</a></p><p>相比上面的股票，crm期权成交量较低，所以未平仓很好筛选，就是290call <a data-mention-id=\"CRM 20270617 290.0 CALL\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"CRM\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/CRM%2020270617%20290.0%20CALL\">$CRM 20270617 290.0 CALL$</a></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a9c849d8a37a14d3ad6c169e9320323a\" tg-width=\"520\" tg-height=\"1060\"></p><p>考虑到crm 290call<a data-mention-id=\"CRM 20270617 290.0 CALL\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"CRM\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/CRM%2020270617%20290.0%20CALL\">$CRM 20270617 290.0 CALL$</a> 和arm 130call<a data-mention-id=\"ARM 20270617 130.0 CALL\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"ARM\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/ARM%2020270617%20130.0%20CALL\">$ARM 20270617 130.0 CALL$</a> 交易日比较接近，5月15日和5月14日，这两只期权的异动成交量可能是同一人所为。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2a8157b6771fe8a650575d15d7280a10\" tg-width=\"2026\" tg-height=\"1438\"></p><p><a data-mention-id=\"NVDA\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"英伟达\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">$英伟达(NVDA)$</a></p><p>英伟达作为热门交易标的，2027年到期开仓期权很多，所以单独列出6月到期未平仓数据。重点是 <a data-mention-id=\"NVDA 20270617 105.0 CALL\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"NVDA\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/NVDA%2020270617%20105.0%20CALL\">$NVDA 20270617 105.0 CALL$</a> <a data-mention-id=\"NVDA 20270617 135.0 CALL\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"NVDA\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/NVDA%2020270617%20135.0%20CALL\">$NVDA 20270617 135.0 CALL$</a> <a data-mention-id=\"NVDA 20270617 110.0 CALL\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"NVDA\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/NVDA%2020270617%20110.0%20CALL\">$NVDA 20270617 110.0 CALL$</a> 这三个期权。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4df3a89e319237fa78b0245e345b76c9\" tg-width=\"524\" tg-height=\"578\"></p><p>其中最值得一提的是110call <a data-mention-id=\"NVDA 20270617 110.0 CALL\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"NVDA\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/NVDA%2020270617%20110.0%20CALL\">$NVDA 20270617 110.0 CALL$</a> ，4月29日跟30日买入，5月12日和13日卖出，非常完整的吃完了一段政策利好。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/372c1ceecf076497bedead6e6938dffa\" tg-width=\"2020\" tg-height=\"1440\"></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/02a1dcaabf81ac1603160f40c45a0354\" tg-width=\"2016\" tg-height=\"1434\"></p><p>nvda135call <a data-mention-id=\"NVDA 20270617 135.0 CALL\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"NVDA\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/NVDA%2020270617%20135.0%20CALL\">$NVDA 20270617 135.0 CALL$</a> 和crm 290call<a data-mention-id=\"CRM 20270617 290.0 CALL\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"CRM\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/CRM%2020270617%20290.0%20CALL\">$CRM 20270617 290.0 CALL$</a> 以及arm 130call<a data-mention-id=\"ARM 20270617 130.0 CALL\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"ARM\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/ARM%2020270617%20130.0%20CALL\">$ARM 20270617 130.0 CALL$</a> 比较像是同一人所为。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aecddce048e67b62222861a449afab21\" tg-width=\"2022\" tg-height=\"1440\"></p><p>结论：</p><p>1、底部购买2027年到期平价看涨期权，确实是机构抄底策略之一。</p><p>2、这些期权购买时间点先于特朗普政策发布，并不是偶然一两次。</p><p>3、5月14日之后的交易风格不太一样，可能是不同人模仿开仓，尤其是ARM130call<a data-mention-id=\"ARM 20270617 130.0 CALL\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"ARM\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/ARM%2020270617%20130.0%20CALL\">$ARM 20270617 130.0 CALL$</a> ，不是极致韭菜就是极致内幕。</p><p>4、日后需要将2027年6月到期期权开仓关仓纳入重点观察。</p></body></html>","text":"这两天彭博发了一篇关于期权大单的文章，叫Mystery Options Buyer Bets Some $3 Billion on US Stock Rally，中文翻译是神秘期权买家押注约30亿美元押注美国股市上涨。 文章说野村策略师发现近一个月以来多只科技股远期到期看涨期权有大量开仓交易，多远期呢，2027年6月到期。根据统计这些期权交易的总期权金接近30亿美元。 在给客户的报告里，野村跨资产策略师例举了亚马逊，crm和arm三只股票：期权买家在购买平价期权上，分别花了3.16亿美元购买了亚⻢逊，Salesforce1.59亿美元， 和ARM控股公司8.78亿美元。 更具体的例子是amr，文章里提到5月21日周三当日2027年6⽉到期的130call $ARM 20270617 130.0 CALL$ 成交了2,200⼿，期权费总计1,040万美元。 提起2027年这个特殊的年份，应该有人记得我在月初就发现的猫腻： 趁此机会我们重新梳理一下，检查2027这个年份，尤其是6月到期看涨期权是否真受内幕偏爱。首先来看彭博文中提到的amzn，crm和arm这三只股票2027年6月到期看涨期权的未平仓情况，数据截止周三5月21日。 $ARM Holdings(ARM)$ 将2027年到期数据按未平仓数量排序，除了特意提到 130call$ARM 20270617 130.0 CALL$ ，125call $ARM 20270617 125.0 CALL$ ，105call $ARM 20270617 105.0 CALL$ 和120call $ARM 20270617 120.0 CALL$ 的未平仓数据也很高。 虽然看成交情况可以发现这四个期权都符合近一个月内开仓这个条件，但130calll$ARM 20270617 130.0 CALL$ 明显区别于另外三个期权，最早开仓是在5月14日已经连续数日开仓。 5月14日距离中美周末谈判已过去三天，市场刚好把关税和谈利好消化完。 跟130call高位开仓相比，125call，105call 和120call交易时间更靠前。虽然时间只有短短一月，但4月20日买入还是5月20日买入，开仓逻辑差异极大，所以我不太认同这是同一位交易者所为。 $亚马逊(AMZN)$ 亚马逊2027年到期的期权按未平仓排序，依然考察平价期权，可以发现有异动的是180call $AMZN 20270617 180.0 CALL$ 和200call $AMZN 20270617 200.0 CALL$ 180call $AMZN 20270617 180.0 CALL$ 和200call $AMZN 20270617 200.0 CALL$ 的成交风格偏向底部抄底，和$ARM 20270617 130.0 CALL$ 的交易逻辑显著不同。 $赛富时(CRM)$ 相比上面的股票，crm期权成交量较低，所以未平仓很好筛选，就是290call $CRM 20270617 290.0 CALL$ 考虑到crm 290call$CRM 20270617 290.0 CALL$ 和arm 130call$ARM 20270617 130.0 CALL$ 交易日比较接近，5月15日和5月14日，这两只期权的异动成交量可能是同一人所为。 $英伟达(NVDA)$ 英伟达作为热门交易标的，2027年到期开仓期权很多，所以单独列出6月到期未平仓数据。重点是 $NVDA 20270617 105.0 CALL$ $NVDA 20270617 135.0 CALL$ $NVDA 20270617 110.0 CALL$ 这三个期权。 其中最值得一提的是110call $NVDA 20270617 110.0 CALL$ ，4月29日跟30日买入，5月12日和13日卖出，非常完整的吃完了一段政策利好。 nvda135call $NVDA 20270617 135.0 CALL$ 和crm 290call$CRM 20270617 290.0 CALL$ 以及arm 130call$ARM 20270617 130.0 CALL$ 比较像是同一人所为。 结论： 1、底部购买2027年到期平价看涨期权，确实是机构抄底策略之一。 2、这些期权购买时间点先于特朗普政策发布，并不是偶然一两次。 3、5月14日之后的交易风格不太一样，可能是不同人模仿开仓，尤其是ARM130call$ARM 20270617 130.0 CALL$ ，不是极致韭菜就是极致内幕。 4、日后需要将2027年6月到期期权开仓关仓纳入重点观察。","highlighted":1,"essential":2,"paper":2,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/438552385990728","repostId":0,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"commentLimit":10,"symbols":["NVDA","AMZN","ARM","CRM","AMZN 20270617 200.0 CALL","ARM 20270617 120.0 CALL","NVDA 20270617 135.0 CALL","CRM 20270617 290.0 CALL","NVDA 20270617 110.0 CALL","ARM 20270617 105.0 CALL","ARM 20270617 125.0 CALL","NVDA 20270617 105.0 CALL","AMZN 20270617 180.0 CALL","ARM 20270617 130.0 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