Mediator
06-06
非农不进入负数，美联储不会轻动提前开始降息，还是会等到核心pce进入2%才会继续降息
非农今夜出炉：新增就业跌破多少，会迫使美联储降息？
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SQCG
06-10
SQCG
有传言要修订到3%。
Mediator
:
现在美债信用已经很差了，我觉得fed不会出这种臭棋，至少鲍威尔不会
Mediator
:
美元就大幅贬值，美股投资者一样赚不了钱
什么也没有了～
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13:25","market":"fut","language":"zh","title":"非农今夜出炉：新增就业跌破多少，会迫使美联储降息？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2541588412","media":"金十数据","summary":"美国经济已经渡过关税难关？别乐观得太早，就业市场的“连胜纪录”仍有可能被打破……","content":"<html><head></head><body><blockquote><p>美国经济已经渡过关税难关？别乐观得太早，就业市场的“连胜纪录”仍有可能被打破……</p></blockquote><p>北京时间周五晚20:30，美国劳工统计局（BLS）将公布最新的非农就业报告。经济学家和市场预测表明，<strong>美国劳动力市场仍在增加就业岗位。</strong></p><p>然而，联邦政府裁员和贸易政策的不确定性使得劳动力市场变得更加谨慎。</p><h2 id=\"id_4181591349\">五月非农报告预测亮点</h2><p>投资者和交易员一直密切关注经济数据，寻找证据判断特朗普关税政策是否影响了就业增长并推高了通胀。但到目前为止，二者都没有发生。</p><p>经济学家预计，美国五月非农人口新增13万人，低于四月的17.7万；失业率预计将维持在4.2%；平均时薪年率和月率预计分别为3.7%和0.3%。</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DB\">德意志银行</a>美国高级经济学家布雷特·瑞安（Brett Ryan）在一篇评论中写道：</p><blockquote><p><strong>“目前，没有明显迹象表明劳动力市场出现了重大恶化。”</strong></p></blockquote><p>若此次就业报告符合预期，这将表明美国经济<strong>至少暂时度过了关税冲击和相关不确定性</strong>。但仍有分析认为，特朗普的“关税战”可能会<strong>终结美国就业市场的连胜纪录。</strong></p><p>许多经济学家预计，随着夏季的到来，消费者价格将上涨，失业情况也将进一步恶化，商家将把四月征收的关税成本转嫁给消费者。</p><p>一些预测者甚至认为，关税将更早、更严重地冲击经济。比如，<strong>野村证券的经济学家预计五月只会新增11万个就业岗位。</strong>该行分析师杰里米·施瓦茨（Jeremy Schwartz）写道：</p><blockquote><p>“就业市场的领先指标已经恶化，在整体经济增长放缓的迹象下，风险偏向下行。”</p></blockquote><p>美国经济学家奥伦·克拉奇金（Oren Klachkin）则表示，目前判断关税政策的影响还为时过早，报告将反映出许多公司采取的谨慎立场。<strong>“许多企业都在关注事态发展。确定性是最重要的。”</strong></p><h2 id=\"id_2774485336\">数据显示就业市场有所降温</h2><p>周三公布的美国“小非农”ADP就业数据显示，<strong>二季度劳动力市场降温，</strong>5月私营部门新增就业仅3.7万，远低于预期的11万，为两年来最弱。</p><p><strong>这或许为周五的官方非农就业报告带来负面信号</strong>。ADP首席经济学家Nela Richardson表示，招聘在今年强劲开局后正在失去动力。</p><p>不过，经济学家对ADP数据的准确性看法不一。</p><p>万神殿宏观经济公司的高级美国经济学家奥利弗·艾伦（Oliver Allen）<strong>批评“小非农”的预测效果不佳</strong>，例如4月ADP预测新增6.2万就业，而政府数据显示新增16.7万。</p><p>但牛津经济研究院的南希·范登·霍滕（Nancy Vanden Houten）认为，尽管月度数据存在差异，<strong>ADP与政府数据长期趋势一致。</strong></p><p>另外，美国4月职位空缺数量上升至739万，超出预期的710万。尽管劳动力市场整体需求依然强劲，但<strong>辞职率降至2021年以来最低水平，裁员人数也略有上升，显示出劳动力市场动力有所减弱。</strong></p><h2 id=\"id_972805322\">怎样的非农会触发美联储降息？</h2><p>此次非农就业报告可能对美联储<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600532\">未来</a>几个月的货币政策决策产生重要影响。</p><p>今年以来，美联储一直将利率维持不变，官员们正在等待观察关税是否会重新点燃通胀，导致失业率上升，或是两者同时发生。</p><p>那么，劳动力市场需要放缓多少，才会促使美联储降息呢？野村经济学家表示，<strong>每月新增就业岗位在5万-10万的范围内，可能不足以引发降息。</strong>施瓦茨在评论中继续写道：</p><blockquote><p>“未来就业市场的风险偏向下行，但由于失业率保持稳定，且没有广泛裁员的迹象，政策制定者不太可能担心劳动力市场即将恶化。”</p></blockquote><p>克拉奇金则预计，美联储在六月的会议上不太可能降息，他表示，现在还看不到政策变化的影响，“最新的会议表明，美联储官员仍然愿意维持利率不变，保持‘观望’的态度。”</p><p>但他补充道，如果非农报告显示劳动力市场有显著放缓的迹象，美联储可能会被迫降息。</p><p>根据CME美联储观察工具，美联储在六月会议上维持利率不变的概率超过95%。</p></body></html>","source":"xnew_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" 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href=https://xnews.jin10.com/webapp/details.html?id=179201&type=news&data_type=0><strong>金十数据</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>美国经济已经渡过关税难关？别乐观得太早，就业市场的“连胜纪录”仍有可能被打破……北京时间周五晚20:30，美国劳工统计局（BLS）将公布最新的非农就业报告。经济学家和市场预测表明，美国劳动力市场仍在增加就业岗位。然而，联邦政府裁员和贸易政策的不确定性使得劳动力市场变得更加谨慎。五月非农报告预测亮点投资者和交易员一直密切关注经济数据，寻找证据判断特朗普关税政策是否影响了就业增长并推高了通胀。但到...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://xnews.jin10.com/webapp/details.html?id=179201&type=news&data_type=0\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6a8642475395bb363eacb86148917e7b","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 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Ryan）在一篇评论中写道：“目前，没有明显迹象表明劳动力市场出现了重大恶化。”若此次就业报告符合预期，这将表明美国经济至少暂时度过了关税冲击和相关不确定性。但仍有分析认为，特朗普的“关税战”可能会终结美国就业市场的连胜纪录。许多经济学家预计，随着夏季的到来，消费者价格将上涨，失业情况也将进一步恶化，商家将把四月征收的关税成本转嫁给消费者。一些预测者甚至认为，关税将更早、更严重地冲击经济。比如，野村证券的经济学家预计五月只会新增11万个就业岗位。该行分析师杰里米·施瓦茨（Jeremy Schwartz）写道：“就业市场的领先指标已经恶化，在整体经济增长放缓的迹象下，风险偏向下行。”美国经济学家奥伦·克拉奇金（Oren Klachkin）则表示，目前判断关税政策的影响还为时过早，报告将反映出许多公司采取的谨慎立场。“许多企业都在关注事态发展。确定性是最重要的。”数据显示就业市场有所降温周三公布的美国“小非农”ADP就业数据显示，二季度劳动力市场降温，5月私营部门新增就业仅3.7万，远低于预期的11万，为两年来最弱。这或许为周五的官方非农就业报告带来负面信号。ADP首席经济学家Nela Richardson表示，招聘在今年强劲开局后正在失去动力。不过，经济学家对ADP数据的准确性看法不一。万神殿宏观经济公司的高级美国经济学家奥利弗·艾伦（Oliver Allen）批评“小非农”的预测效果不佳，例如4月ADP预测新增6.2万就业，而政府数据显示新增16.7万。但牛津经济研究院的南希·范登·霍滕（Nancy Vanden Houten）认为，尽管月度数据存在差异，ADP与政府数据长期趋势一致。另外，美国4月职位空缺数量上升至739万，超出预期的710万。尽管劳动力市场整体需求依然强劲，但辞职率降至2021年以来最低水平，裁员人数也略有上升，显示出劳动力市场动力有所减弱。怎样的非农会触发美联储降息？此次非农就业报告可能对美联储未来几个月的货币政策决策产生重要影响。今年以来，美联储一直将利率维持不变，官员们正在等待观察关税是否会重新点燃通胀，导致失业率上升，或是两者同时发生。那么，劳动力市场需要放缓多少，才会促使美联储降息呢？野村经济学家表示，每月新增就业岗位在5万-10万的范围内，可能不足以引发降息。施瓦茨在评论中继续写道：“未来就业市场的风险偏向下行，但由于失业率保持稳定，且没有广泛裁员的迹象，政策制定者不太可能担心劳动力市场即将恶化。”克拉奇金则预计，美联储在六月的会议上不太可能降息，他表示，现在还看不到政策变化的影响，“最新的会议表明，美联储官员仍然愿意维持利率不变，保持‘观望’的态度。”但他补充道，如果非农报告显示劳动力市场有显著放缓的迹象，美联储可能会被迫降息。根据CME美联储观察工具，美联储在六月会议上维持利率不变的概率超过95%。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.6,"ESmain":0.6,"MESmain":0.6,"IVV":0.6,"OEF":0.6,"OEX":0.6,"SDS":0.6,"SH":0.6,"SPXU":0.6,"SPY":1,"SSO":0.6,"UPRO":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":707,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[".DJI","SImain","US5Y.BOND","US7Y.BOND","GCmain","US10Y.BOND","US6M.BOND","US12M.BOND","US30Y.BOND","US3Y.BOND","US2Y.BOND","SPY","HK0000934320.USD",".IXIC"],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":77,"optionInvolvedFlag":false,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[{"id":444560658277200,"commentId":"444560658277200","gmtCreate":1749556903613,"gmtModify":1749557183661,"authorId":4183615911667572,"author":{"id":4183615911667572,"idStr":"4183615911667572","authorId":4183615911667572,"name":"SQCG","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/14aa5029bb6d9bb73e72e6722cb6a6ac","vip":1,"currentWearingBadge":{"badgeId":"3f8f4b8c193b4343a88817ce07587dbd-1","templateUuid":"3f8f4b8c193b4343a88817ce07587dbd","name":"星级创作者","description":"累计发表精华帖>=3（或有料帖>=10），且30天内发表过至少一篇精华帖（或4篇有料帖）并参与过评论","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1866dcf97a73be1c330f85862546aedc","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4f5c5fa8e2c7683bb5a7fce8753ee456","redirectLinkEnabled":1,"redirectLink":"https://www.laohu8.com/activity/market/2023/star-contributors/","hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":1,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2024.12.19","individualDisplayEnabled":0,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":2007},"hat":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/646756f1284a5a6480ed02cc4fa7d1d2","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"individualDisplayBadges":[{"badgeId":"3f8f4b8c193b4343a88817ce07587dbd-1","templateUuid":"3f8f4b8c193b4343a88817ce07587dbd","name":"星级创作者","description":"累计发表精华帖>=3（或有料帖>=10），且30天内发表过至少一篇精华帖（或4篇有料帖）并参与过评论","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1866dcf97a73be1c330f85862546aedc","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4f5c5fa8e2c7683bb5a7fce8753ee456","redirectLinkEnabled":1,"redirectLink":"https://www.laohu8.com/activity/market/2023/star-contributors/","hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":1,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2025.06.24","individualDisplayEnabled":1,"backgroundColor":{"dark":"#675a37","tint":"#f9ebc2"},"fontColor":{"dark":"#ffffff","tint":"#ab7a0e"},"individualDisplaySort":1,"categoryType":2007}]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":443087048241928,"objectIdStr":"443087048241928","type":1,"supId":0,"supIdStr":"0","prevId":0,"prevIdStr":"0","content":"有传言要修订到3%。","text":"有传言要修订到3%。","html":"有传言要修订到3%。","likeSize":0,"commentSize":2,"subComments":[{"id":444625418085192,"commentId":"444625418085192","gmtCreate":1749572516927,"gmtModify":1749572843767,"authorId":3498680662745699,"author":{"id":3498680662745699,"idStr":"3498680662745699","authorId":3498680662745699,"name":"Mediator","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ccbee84d06c97c8ea354bff2e5c20b6d","vip":1,"currentWearingBadge":{"badgeId":"e50ce593bb40487ebfb542ca54f6a561-4","templateUuid":"e50ce593bb40487ebfb542ca54f6a561","name":"明星虎友","description":"加入老虎社区2000天","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dddf24b906c7011de2617d4fb3f76987","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/53d58ad32c97254c6f74db8b97e6ec49","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6304700d92ad91c7a33e2e92ec32ecc1","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":1,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2024.02.21","individualDisplayEnabled":0,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1001},"hat":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e1c01e958f63198f5d9648b59135f687","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":443087048241928,"objectIdStr":"443087048241928","type":1,"supId":444560658277200,"supIdStr":"444560658277200","prevId":0,"prevIdStr":"0","content":"现在美债信用已经很差了，我觉得fed不会出这种臭棋，至少鲍威尔不会","text":"现在美债信用已经很差了，我觉得fed不会出这种臭棋，至少鲍威尔不会","html":"现在美债信用已经很差了，我觉得fed不会出这种臭棋，至少鲍威尔不会","disclaimerType":0},{"id":444623536091192,"commentId":"444623536091192","gmtCreate":1749572438665,"gmtModify":1749572664099,"authorId":3498680662745699,"author":{"id":3498680662745699,"idStr":"3498680662745699","authorId":3498680662745699,"name":"Mediator","avatar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