超级主力
08-06
蜜雪冰城要多难喝有多难喝
[生气]
外卖大战的“受益者”：高盛预测古茗今年多赚2亿，蜜雪多赚5000万
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拒绝游泳的鱼
08-07
拒绝游泳的鱼
我搞了杯免费的柠檬水，喝了二口就扔了，要是要钱谁会买。
什么也没有了～
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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MPNGY\">美团</a>和饿了么随后跟进，据高盛互联网团队估算，三大平台仅在第二季度的总投资就达到250亿元人民币（30亿美元），推动日均外卖订单量在二季度超过1亿单，同比增长27%。</p><p>新茶饮品类成为此轮补贴的最大受益者。7月上半月各平台推出更激进的补贴政策，包括免费新茶饮优惠券。</p><p>研报指出，短期内补贴提振了新茶饮品牌的门店销售额增长，但2026年补贴退出后可能面临增长回落。高盛分析认为，<strong>补贴正常化后行业整合将加速，供应链和品牌优势突出的龙头企业将受益</strong>。</p><h2 id=\"id_1642258076\">新茶饮门店扩张提速，行业整合趋势受扰</h2><p>补贴竞争为表现不佳的品牌提供支撑，减缓了门店关闭速度，打乱了行业整合趋势。</p><p>根据窄门数据，7月行业门店数量环比增长加速。</p><p><strong>品牌层面</strong>，古茗和幸运咖在过去几个月加速门店扩张，库迪5月恢复正增长并在近两月进一步提速。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02555\">茶百道</a>和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02150\">奈雪的茶</a>虽仍有净关店，但改善的同店销售表现可能导致关店计划延后和开店计划增加。</p><p><strong>价格方面</strong>，平台补贴和品牌拓展新品类的双重推动下，市场价格活动增加。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SBUX\">星巴克</a>6月将非咖啡饮品价格下调2-6元人民币，古茗6月推出8.9元人民币咖啡活动。</p><h2 id=\"id_4270030170\">盈利预测上调：古茗和蜜雪受益程度不同</h2><p>由于外卖补贴持续时间超预期延续至第三季度，高盛上调两家公司2025年盈利预测。<strong>古茗受益更为明显，因其外卖占比相对更高：</strong></p><blockquote><p><strong>古茗</strong>：</p><ul style=\"\"><li><p><strong>2025年经调整净利润预测从20.06亿人民币上调至21.89亿人民币，增幅达9.2%。</strong>这主要得益于单店GMV增长预测的上调（从6%上调至13%）。</p></li><li><p>不同情境分析显示，如果外卖补贴持续至四季度，古茗单店GMV增长可能达到10%-25%，远超当前预期的13%。每1%的单店GMV增长将直接转化为1%的净利润增长。</p></li><li><p>为反映此利好，<strong>高盛将其12个月目标价从29.2港元微调至30.0港元。</strong></p></li></ul><p><strong>蜜雪冰城</strong>：</p><ul style=\"\"><li><p><strong>2025年经调整净利润预测从53.74亿人民币上调至54.24亿人民币，增幅为1%。</strong></p></li><li><p>增长驱动力包括其中国市场单店GMV 6%的同比增长，以及旗下幸运咖（Lucky Cup）品牌的超预期扩张。</p></li><li><p>12个月目标价也<strong>从597港元微调至599港元。</strong></p></li></ul></blockquote><h2 id=\"id_1371132829\">2026年风险评估：补贴退潮影响有限</h2><p>投资者最大的担忧在于“补贴退潮”后的影响。高盛对此进行了详细的情景分析，指出由于2025年的高基数效应，2026年单店GMV增长将面临压力。</p><p>如果2026年外卖补贴完全退出，<strong>假设基于2%增长率和30%的2025年补贴提振订单保留率，古茗单店GMV可能同比下滑5%，蜜雪下滑1%。</strong></p><p>对于受影响更大的古茗，高盛认为其咖啡和早餐等品类扩张能够对冲部分影响。而蜜雪凭借更低的外卖占比，受冲击相对温和。</p><p><strong>短期内</strong>，投资者情绪将受到外卖平台策略变化影响，古茗8月11日解禁期到期和夏季后的淡季也可能限制股价表现。</p><p><strong>但从长期看</strong>，补贴正常化可能改善竞争格局，两家公司的核心优势依然突出。</p><p><strong>蜜雪的强劲价格优势、供应链能力和下沉市场渗透能力支撑其长期发展；古茗的新品研发、品牌建设投资和供应链实力将助其探索空白市场，特别是在仅在部分省份达到关键规模的背景下。</strong></p><p>高盛强调，外卖补贴战虽然带来短期波动，但对于具备核心竞争力的头部新茶饮品牌而言，更像是一次市场份额重新分配的机遇。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>外卖大战的“受益者”：高盛预测古茗今年多赚2亿，蜜雪多赚5000万</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n外卖大战的“受益者”：高盛预测古茗今年多赚2亿，蜜雪多赚5000万\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2025-08-06 10:39 北京时间 <a href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3752736><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>新茶饮品类成为此轮外卖补贴的最大受益者，高盛上调古茗和蜜雪冰城今年盈利预测，上调幅度分别为9%和1%。高盛认为，补贴为表现不佳品牌提供支撑，减缓了门店关闭速度，打乱原有行业整合趋势。补贴退潮后，单店增长将承压，行业整合步伐将恢复，具备供应链和品牌优势的古茗和蜜雪等头部品牌将从中受益。外卖平台补贴大战正在重塑新茶饮行业格局。据追风交易台消息，8月5日高盛最新研报显示，得益于外卖补贴持续时间超预期，...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3752736\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a2faeaf3dc3d480a0374990517b2947a","relate_stocks":{"LU0251131958.USD":"FIDELITY AMERICA \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU2237443549.SGD":"Aberdeen Standard SICAV I - Global Dynamic Dividend A MIncA SGD-H","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","BK4588":"碎股","LU2237443382.USD":"Aberdeen Standard SICAV I - Global Dynamic Dividend A MIncA USD","LU1868837300.USD":"CT (LUX) I AMERICAN FUND \"9\" (USD) ACC","LU2750360997.AUD":"INVESCO GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME ADVANTAGE \"A\" (AUDHDG) INC","LU1894683348.USD":"AMUNDI FUNDS US EQUITY RESEARCH VALUE \"A2\" (USD) INC","LU2237443895.HKD":"abrdn SICAV I - GLOBAL DYNAMIC DIVIDEND \"A\" (HKD) ACC","LU2237443465.HKD":"abrdn SICAV I - GLOBAL DYNAMIC DIVIDEND \"A\" (HKD) INC","BK4552":"Archegos爆仓风波概念","LU2237438978.USD":"Amundi Funds US Pioneer A2 (C) USD","LU2237443622.USD":"Aberdeen Standard SICAV I - Global Dynamic Dividend A Acc USD","LU2750360641.GBP":"INVESCO GLOBAL EQUITY 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6%的同比增长，以及旗下幸运咖（Lucky Cup）品牌的超预期扩张。12个月目标价也从597港元微调至599港元。2026年风险评估：补贴退潮影响有限投资者最大的担忧在于“补贴退潮”后的影响。高盛对此进行了详细的情景分析，指出由于2025年的高基数效应，2026年单店GMV增长将面临压力。如果2026年外卖补贴完全退出，假设基于2%增长率和30%的2025年补贴提振订单保留率，古茗单店GMV可能同比下滑5%，蜜雪下滑1%。对于受影响更大的古茗，高盛认为其咖啡和早餐等品类扩张能够对冲部分影响。而蜜雪凭借更低的外卖占比，受冲击相对温和。短期内，投资者情绪将受到外卖平台策略变化影响，古茗8月11日解禁期到期和夏季后的淡季也可能限制股价表现。但从长期看，补贴正常化可能改善竞争格局，两家公司的核心优势依然突出。蜜雪的强劲价格优势、供应链能力和下沉市场渗透能力支撑其长期发展；古茗的新品研发、品牌建设投资和供应链实力将助其探索空白市场，特别是在仅在部分省份达到关键规模的背景下。高盛强调，外卖补贴战虽然带来短期波动，但对于具备核心竞争力的头部新茶饮品牌而言，更像是一次市场份额重新分配的机遇。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"01364":1,"02097":1.1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":664,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":30,"optionInvolvedFlag":false,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[{"id":464899684237624,"commentId":"464899684237624","gmtCreate":1754525712172,"gmtModify":1754525716934,"authorId":3472098980994884,"author":{"id":3472098980994884,"idStr":"3472098980994884","authorId":3472098980994884,"name":"拒绝游泳的鱼","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/52fff20daaba255185a5f3bd46574b0f","vip":1,"currentWearingBadge":{"badgeId":"35ec162348d5460f88c959321e554969-3","templateUuid":"35ec162348d5460f88c959321e554969","name":"传说交易员","description":"证券或期货账户累计交易次数达到300次","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/656db16598a0b8f21429e10d6c1cb033","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/03f10910d4dd9234f9b5702a3342193a","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0c767e35268feb729d50d3fa9a386c5a","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":1,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2021.12.21","exceedPercentage":"93.47%","individualDisplayEnabled":0,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1100},"hat":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0a8758340a08196056f8bc1e54805193","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":464603143507992,"objectIdStr":"464603143507992","type":1,"supId":0,"supIdStr":"0","prevId":0,"prevIdStr":"0","content":"我搞了杯免费的柠檬水，喝了二口就扔了，要是要钱谁会买。","text":"我搞了杯免费的柠檬水，喝了二口就扔了，要是要钱谁会买。","html":"我搞了杯免费的柠檬水，喝了二口就扔了，要是要钱谁会买。","likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"subComments":[],"verified":10,"allocateAmount":0,"commentType":"valid","coins":0,"score":0,"disclaimerType":0}],"isCommentEnd":false,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/464603143507992"}
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