悟空的花果山
08-26
信息量大，昨天我以为会再开一个帖子，原来是原贴更新🌚
@期权小班长：
8000万买入的拼多多看涨期权打水漂了吗？
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data-mention-id=\"PDD\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"拼多多\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">$拼多多(PDD)$</a></p><p>拼多多财报不错，净利润大超预期，可惜管理层的开光小嘴叭叭一聊抹平了涨幅，说本季度趋势未必可以延续。</p><p>上一个管理层发力的财报是亚马逊，感觉电商行业人员都特别敬畏宏观风险，乐观的话是一句也不肯多说啊。</p><p>8月22日周五有土豪交易员发力，买入了成交额约8000万的看涨期权： <a data-mention-id=\"PDD 20250926 130.0 CALL\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"PDD\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/PDD%2020250926%20130.0%20CALL\">$PDD 20250926 130.0 CALL$</a> <a data-mention-id=\"PDD 20250926 132.0 CALL\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"PDD\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/PDD%2020250926%20132.0%20CALL\">$PDD 20250926 132.0 CALL$</a> <a data-mention-id=\"PDD 20250926 135.0 CALL\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"PDD\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/PDD%2020250926%20135.0%20CALL\">$PDD 20250926 135.0 CALL$</a> 。</p><p>这几张期权成交价约在5块多，所以预计本次财报后股价应该涨到135～140左右。如果管理层不发言，股价确实能保持在这个高度。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/444c33d69c4af8d6a6b965e77f12630b\" tg-width=\"2482\" tg-height=\"1300\"></p><p>除了上面三支开仓的9月26日到期的，看涨开仓还有不少远期看涨锁定130～140。比较特立独行的是11月到期165的sell call <a data-mention-id=\"PDD 20251121 165.0 CALL\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"PDD\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/PDD%2020251121%20165.0%20CALL\">$PDD 20251121 165.0 CALL$</a> 。</p><p>和看涨期权相比看跌开仓颇为谨慎，比较重量级的是本周到期双买开仓： <a data-mention-id=\"PDD 20250829 110.0 CALL\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"PDD\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/PDD%2020250829%20110.0%20CALL\">$PDD 20250829 110.0 CALL$</a> <a title=\"$PDD 20250829 110.0 PUT$ \" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/PDD 20250829 110.0 PUT\">$PDD 20250829 110.0 PUT$ </a> 。很有代表性，看跌开仓主要目的是为了保护多头仓位。</p><p>但话又说回来，即使是保护目的看跌开仓也应该有一致预期，事实是行权价非常不统一，托底信心略有不足。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/937eb411cc8f3c0dac4336e15655f2da\" tg-width=\"1040\" tg-height=\"1024\"></p><p>开盘股价下跌2%，回调至125，倒是跟上上周看涨开仓目标价相符。</p><p>今天开盘后9月到期130、132和135call价值肯定大幅缩水。不过也不排除股价先跌后涨，毕竟A股涨势不错，作为中国最大电商之一没道理股价如此平淡。</p><p>另一个就是我之前说拼多多可能会港股上市。</p><p>财报后股价下跌反而是很好的做多机会，不必激进买call，sell put即可，行权价115～120put都可以，保守可以选择110put。</p><p><a data-mention-id=\"NVDA\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"英伟达\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">$英伟达(NVDA)$</a></p><p>英伟达本周财报，数据中心需求依然强劲，不用为业绩担心。</p><p>但另一方面，市场对于增长跟踪密切，股价已经大幅反应了财报预期，所以跟上季度一样估计上涨幅度有限。</p><p>机构sell call选择185和187.5，对冲买入195和202.5。也就是说机构预计财报很难突破前高，但为小概率突破进行了一定缓冲。</p><p>建议温和看涨选择sell put 175或170。</p><p>另一边看跌期权开仓着实非常不乐观，应该不是财报的问题，预计大盘可能还有回调预期。预计还是先回170探底。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/201f6901e84f6427d15b8f4244d448de\" tg-width=\"1042\" tg-height=\"964\"></p><p>值得注意的是2亿哥财报前选择roll仓，从160 <a data-mention-id=\"NVDA 20250919 160.0 CALL\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"NVDA\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/NVDA%2020250919%20160.0%20CALL\">$NVDA 20250919 160.0 CALL$</a> roll到172.5 <a data-mention-id=\"NVDA 20250919 172.5 CALL\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"NVDA\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/NVDA%2020250919%20172.5%20CALL\">$NVDA 20250919 172.5 CALL$</a> 。</p><p>虽然都是价内，但成交额减半，相当于变相减仓了。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dacf531dfc4604c42a296000d4fa8adf\" tg-width=\"2486\" tg-height=\"160\"></p><p><a data-mention-id=\"TSLA\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"特斯拉\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$</a></p><p>从看涨期权开仓来看特斯拉很强势，甚至有中期对冲看多：买入450call <a data-mention-id=\"TSLA 20260116 450.0 CALL\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"TSLA\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/TSLA%2020260116%20450.0%20CALL\">$TSLA 20260116 450.0 CALL$</a> 卖出5倍数量的900call <a data-mention-id=\"TSLA 20260116 900.0 CALL\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"TSLA\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/TSLA%2020260116%20900.0%20CALL\">$TSLA 20260116 900.0 CALL$</a> 。</p><p>机构本周sell call347.5和335，对冲买入355call和367.5call。</p><p>看跌开仓有正股对冲买入320put <a data-mention-id=\"TSLA 20250919 320.0 PUT\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"TSLA\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/TSLA%2020250919%20320.0%20PUT\">$TSLA 20250919 320.0 PUT$</a> 做看跌保护。</p><p>总体而言特斯拉现在更适合多头思路。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5e24c29656ae9a70fadb89d73d0522cb\" tg-width=\"1040\" tg-height=\"992\"></p><p><a data-mention-id=\"SPY\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"标普500ETF\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SPY\">$标普500ETF(SPY)$</a></p><p>大盘比较两极分化，跟个股开仓有类似之处，同样有人做多剧烈波动。</p><p>但也不妨碍看涨期权乐观看涨650。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0ac99dd696a64da87cba14ed2e135b4d\" tg-width=\"1040\" tg-height=\"994\"></p><p><a data-mention-id=\"PLTR\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"Palantir Technologies Inc.\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PLTR\">$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$</a></p><p>机构周五逼空后进行了roll仓，sell call 165 <a data-mention-id=\"PLTR 20250829 165.0 CALL\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"PLTR\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/PLTR%2020250829%20165.0%20CALL\">$PLTR 20250829 165.0 CALL$</a> ，对冲buy call 172.5 <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/PLTR 20250829 172.5 CALL\">$PLTR 20250829 172.5 CALL$ </a> 。</p><p>这种暴跌股票的sell call大单其实更具有逼空指标意义。</p><p>看跌回调意见非常不统一，很难想象周五反弹后押注黑天鹅暴跌的反而变多了。</p><p>就长线意义上来说目前这个价格还行，sell put价格可以考虑140。但如果资金有限，别的股票机会更好。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aadb44f54929e1f1161f5835049aed8e\" tg-width=\"1042\" tg-height=\"926\"></p><p><a data-mention-id=\"AMD\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"美国超微公司\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMD\">$美国超微公司(AMD)$</a></p><p>机构sell call 172.5对冲买入182.5call。本周应该较难跌破160。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9a08f28fb01752b88acb0e24d63a1570\" tg-width=\"1040\" tg-height=\"642\"></p><p><a data-mention-id=\"UNH\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"联合健康\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UNH\">$联合健康(UNH)$</a></p><p>不排除回调290，备兑sell call可以考虑330。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ec117d017b7d3db2e7bbd0d64f65544d\" tg-width=\"1042\" tg-height=\"608\"></p><p><a data-mention-id=\"INTC\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"英特尔\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/INTC\">$英特尔(INTC)$</a></p><p>有现金就是好啊，有政府托底英特尔开始看涨，本周可能不会低于24，可以考虑sell put。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6a873c2b2167289651a71a96e0f41430\" tg-width=\"1042\" tg-height=\"934\"></p><p><a data-mention-id=\"CRWV\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"CoreWeave, Inc.\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CRWV\">$CoreWeave, Inc.(CRWV)$</a></p><p>八成进入了洗盘期，震荡幅度过大，不排除本周再次回调85。</p><p>另外值得注意的是，大资金继续持续做多。做多方式是买入100call <a data-mention-id=\"CRWV 20260320 100.0 CALL\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"CRWV\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/CRWV%2020260320%20100.0%20CALL\">$CRWV 20260320 100.0 CALL$</a>对冲卖出双倍165call <a data-mention-id=\"CRWV 20260320 165.0 CALL\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"CRWV\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/CRWV%2020260320%20165.0%20CALL\">$CRWV 20260320 165.0 CALL$</a> ，一来可以对冲看涨成本，二来可以对冲底部磨损的时间成本。</p><p>我一开始以为只是投机性看涨，但这张大单已经连续好几天买入了，目前成本已经达到千万级别，所以应该是大资金底部做多。</p><p><a data-mention-id=\"BABA\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"阿里巴巴\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">$阿里巴巴(BABA)$</a></p><p>财报略看涨到125以上，当前价格很适合sell put <a data-mention-id=\"BABA 20250829 118.0 PUT\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"BABA\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/BABA%2020250829%20118.0%20PUT\">$BABA 20250829 118.0 PUT$</a> </p></body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body><p>周五市场大幅反弹，除了降息乐观买入以外，上涨一大助力来自逼空。所以空头是不是真的死心了还要再观察两天。</p><p><a data-mention-id=\"PDD\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"拼多多\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">$拼多多(PDD)$</a></p><p>拼多多财报不错，净利润大超预期，可惜管理层的开光小嘴叭叭一聊抹平了涨幅，说本季度趋势未必可以延续。</p><p>上一个管理层发力的财报是亚马逊，感觉电商行业人员都特别敬畏宏观风险，乐观的话是一句也不肯多说啊。</p><p>8月22日周五有土豪交易员发力，买入了成交额约8000万的看涨期权： <a data-mention-id=\"PDD 20250926 130.0 CALL\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"PDD\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/PDD%2020250926%20130.0%20CALL\">$PDD 20250926 130.0 CALL$</a> <a data-mention-id=\"PDD 20250926 132.0 CALL\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"PDD\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/PDD%2020250926%20132.0%20CALL\">$PDD 20250926 132.0 CALL$</a> <a data-mention-id=\"PDD 20250926 135.0 CALL\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"PDD\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/PDD%2020250926%20135.0%20CALL\">$PDD 20250926 135.0 CALL$</a> 。</p><p>这几张期权成交价约在5块多，所以预计本次财报后股价应该涨到135～140左右。如果管理层不发言，股价确实能保持在这个高度。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/444c33d69c4af8d6a6b965e77f12630b\" tg-width=\"2482\" tg-height=\"1300\"></p><p>除了上面三支开仓的9月26日到期的，看涨开仓还有不少远期看涨锁定130～140。比较特立独行的是11月到期165的sell call <a data-mention-id=\"PDD 20251121 165.0 CALL\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"PDD\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/PDD%2020251121%20165.0%20CALL\">$PDD 20251121 165.0 CALL$</a> 。</p><p>和看涨期权相比看跌开仓颇为谨慎，比较重量级的是本周到期双买开仓： <a data-mention-id=\"PDD 20250829 110.0 CALL\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"PDD\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/PDD%2020250829%20110.0%20CALL\">$PDD 20250829 110.0 CALL$</a> <a title=\"$PDD 20250829 110.0 PUT$ \" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/PDD 20250829 110.0 PUT\">$PDD 20250829 110.0 PUT$ </a> 。很有代表性，看跌开仓主要目的是为了保护多头仓位。</p><p>但话又说回来，即使是保护目的看跌开仓也应该有一致预期，事实是行权价非常不统一，托底信心略有不足。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/937eb411cc8f3c0dac4336e15655f2da\" tg-width=\"1040\" tg-height=\"1024\"></p><p>开盘股价下跌2%，回调至125，倒是跟上上周看涨开仓目标价相符。</p><p>今天开盘后9月到期130、132和135call价值肯定大幅缩水。不过也不排除股价先跌后涨，毕竟A股涨势不错，作为中国最大电商之一没道理股价如此平淡。</p><p>另一个就是我之前说拼多多可能会港股上市。</p><p>财报后股价下跌反而是很好的做多机会，不必激进买call，sell put即可，行权价115～120put都可以，保守可以选择110put。</p><p><a data-mention-id=\"NVDA\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"英伟达\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">$英伟达(NVDA)$</a></p><p>英伟达本周财报，数据中心需求依然强劲，不用为业绩担心。</p><p>但另一方面，市场对于增长跟踪密切，股价已经大幅反应了财报预期，所以跟上季度一样估计上涨幅度有限。</p><p>机构sell call选择185和187.5，对冲买入195和202.5。也就是说机构预计财报很难突破前高，但为小概率突破进行了一定缓冲。</p><p>建议温和看涨选择sell put 175或170。</p><p>另一边看跌期权开仓着实非常不乐观，应该不是财报的问题，预计大盘可能还有回调预期。预计还是先回170探底。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/201f6901e84f6427d15b8f4244d448de\" tg-width=\"1042\" tg-height=\"964\"></p><p>值得注意的是2亿哥财报前选择roll仓，从160 <a data-mention-id=\"NVDA 20250919 160.0 CALL\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"NVDA\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/NVDA%2020250919%20160.0%20CALL\">$NVDA 20250919 160.0 CALL$</a> roll到172.5 <a data-mention-id=\"NVDA 20250919 172.5 CALL\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"NVDA\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/NVDA%2020250919%20172.5%20CALL\">$NVDA 20250919 172.5 CALL$</a> 。</p><p>虽然都是价内，但成交额减半，相当于变相减仓了。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dacf531dfc4604c42a296000d4fa8adf\" tg-width=\"2486\" tg-height=\"160\"></p><p><a data-mention-id=\"TSLA\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"特斯拉\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$</a></p><p>从看涨期权开仓来看特斯拉很强势，甚至有中期对冲看多：买入450call <a data-mention-id=\"TSLA 20260116 450.0 CALL\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"TSLA\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/TSLA%2020260116%20450.0%20CALL\">$TSLA 20260116 450.0 CALL$</a> 卖出5倍数量的900call <a data-mention-id=\"TSLA 20260116 900.0 CALL\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"TSLA\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/TSLA%2020260116%20900.0%20CALL\">$TSLA 20260116 900.0 CALL$</a> 。</p><p>机构本周sell call347.5和335，对冲买入355call和367.5call。</p><p>看跌开仓有正股对冲买入320put <a data-mention-id=\"TSLA 20250919 320.0 PUT\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"TSLA\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/TSLA%2020250919%20320.0%20PUT\">$TSLA 20250919 320.0 PUT$</a> 做看跌保护。</p><p>总体而言特斯拉现在更适合多头思路。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5e24c29656ae9a70fadb89d73d0522cb\" tg-width=\"1040\" tg-height=\"992\"></p><p><a data-mention-id=\"SPY\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"标普500ETF\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SPY\">$标普500ETF(SPY)$</a></p><p>大盘比较两极分化，跟个股开仓有类似之处，同样有人做多剧烈波动。</p><p>但也不妨碍看涨期权乐观看涨650。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0ac99dd696a64da87cba14ed2e135b4d\" tg-width=\"1040\" tg-height=\"994\"></p><p><a data-mention-id=\"PLTR\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"Palantir Technologies Inc.\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PLTR\">$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$</a></p><p>机构周五逼空后进行了roll仓，sell call 165 <a data-mention-id=\"PLTR 20250829 165.0 CALL\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"PLTR\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/PLTR%2020250829%20165.0%20CALL\">$PLTR 20250829 165.0 CALL$</a> ，对冲buy call 172.5 <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/PLTR 20250829 172.5 CALL\">$PLTR 20250829 172.5 CALL$ </a> 。</p><p>这种暴跌股票的sell call大单其实更具有逼空指标意义。</p><p>看跌回调意见非常不统一，很难想象周五反弹后押注黑天鹅暴跌的反而变多了。</p><p>就长线意义上来说目前这个价格还行，sell put价格可以考虑140。但如果资金有限，别的股票机会更好。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aadb44f54929e1f1161f5835049aed8e\" tg-width=\"1042\" tg-height=\"926\"></p><p><a data-mention-id=\"AMD\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"美国超微公司\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMD\">$美国超微公司(AMD)$</a></p><p>机构sell call 172.5对冲买入182.5call。本周应该较难跌破160。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9a08f28fb01752b88acb0e24d63a1570\" tg-width=\"1040\" tg-height=\"642\"></p><p><a data-mention-id=\"UNH\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"联合健康\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UNH\">$联合健康(UNH)$</a></p><p>不排除回调290，备兑sell call可以考虑330。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ec117d017b7d3db2e7bbd0d64f65544d\" tg-width=\"1042\" tg-height=\"608\"></p><p><a data-mention-id=\"INTC\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"英特尔\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/INTC\">$英特尔(INTC)$</a></p><p>有现金就是好啊，有政府托底英特尔开始看涨，本周可能不会低于24，可以考虑sell put。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6a873c2b2167289651a71a96e0f41430\" tg-width=\"1042\" tg-height=\"934\"></p><p><a data-mention-id=\"CRWV\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"CoreWeave, Inc.\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CRWV\">$CoreWeave, Inc.(CRWV)$</a></p><p>八成进入了洗盘期，震荡幅度过大，不排除本周再次回调85。</p><p>另外值得注意的是，大资金继续持续做多。做多方式是买入100call <a data-mention-id=\"CRWV 20260320 100.0 CALL\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"CRWV\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/CRWV%2020260320%20100.0%20CALL\">$CRWV 20260320 100.0 CALL$</a>对冲卖出双倍165call <a data-mention-id=\"CRWV 20260320 165.0 CALL\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"CRWV\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/CRWV%2020260320%20165.0%20CALL\">$CRWV 20260320 165.0 CALL$</a> ，一来可以对冲看涨成本，二来可以对冲底部磨损的时间成本。</p><p>我一开始以为只是投机性看涨，但这张大单已经连续好几天买入了，目前成本已经达到千万级别，所以应该是大资金底部做多。</p><p><a data-mention-id=\"BABA\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"阿里巴巴\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">$阿里巴巴(BABA)$</a></p><p>财报略看涨到125以上，当前价格很适合sell put <a data-mention-id=\"BABA 20250829 118.0 PUT\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"BABA\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/BABA%2020250829%20118.0%20PUT\">$BABA 20250829 118.0 PUT$</a> </p></body></html>","text":"周五市场大幅反弹，除了降息乐观买入以外，上涨一大助力来自逼空。所以空头是不是真的死心了还要再观察两天。 $拼多多(PDD)$ 拼多多财报不错，净利润大超预期，可惜管理层的开光小嘴叭叭一聊抹平了涨幅，说本季度趋势未必可以延续。 上一个管理层发力的财报是亚马逊，感觉电商行业人员都特别敬畏宏观风险，乐观的话是一句也不肯多说啊。 8月22日周五有土豪交易员发力，买入了成交额约8000万的看涨期权： $PDD 20250926 130.0 CALL$ $PDD 20250926 132.0 CALL$ $PDD 20250926 135.0 CALL$ 。 这几张期权成交价约在5块多，所以预计本次财报后股价应该涨到135～140左右。如果管理层不发言，股价确实能保持在这个高度。 除了上面三支开仓的9月26日到期的，看涨开仓还有不少远期看涨锁定130～140。比较特立独行的是11月到期165的sell call $PDD 20251121 165.0 CALL$ 。 和看涨期权相比看跌开仓颇为谨慎，比较重量级的是本周到期双买开仓： $PDD 20250829 110.0 CALL$ $PDD 20250829 110.0 PUT$ 。很有代表性，看跌开仓主要目的是为了保护多头仓位。 但话又说回来，即使是保护目的看跌开仓也应该有一致预期，事实是行权价非常不统一，托底信心略有不足。 开盘股价下跌2%，回调至125，倒是跟上上周看涨开仓目标价相符。 今天开盘后9月到期130、132和135call价值肯定大幅缩水。不过也不排除股价先跌后涨，毕竟A股涨势不错，作为中国最大电商之一没道理股价如此平淡。 另一个就是我之前说拼多多可能会港股上市。 财报后股价下跌反而是很好的做多机会，不必激进买call，sell put即可，行权价115～120put都可以，保守可以选择110put。 $英伟达(NVDA)$ 英伟达本周财报，数据中心需求依然强劲，不用为业绩担心。 但另一方面，市场对于增长跟踪密切，股价已经大幅反应了财报预期，所以跟上季度一样估计上涨幅度有限。 机构sell call选择185和187.5，对冲买入195和202.5。也就是说机构预计财报很难突破前高，但为小概率突破进行了一定缓冲。 建议温和看涨选择sell put 175或170。 另一边看跌期权开仓着实非常不乐观，应该不是财报的问题，预计大盘可能还有回调预期。预计还是先回170探底。 值得注意的是2亿哥财报前选择roll仓，从160 $NVDA 20250919 160.0 CALL$ roll到172.5 $NVDA 20250919 172.5 CALL$ 。 虽然都是价内，但成交额减半，相当于变相减仓了。 $特斯拉(TSLA)$ 从看涨期权开仓来看特斯拉很强势，甚至有中期对冲看多：买入450call $TSLA 20260116 450.0 CALL$ 卖出5倍数量的900call $TSLA 20260116 900.0 CALL$ 。 机构本周sell call347.5和335，对冲买入355call和367.5call。 看跌开仓有正股对冲买入320put $TSLA 20250919 320.0 PUT$ 做看跌保护。 总体而言特斯拉现在更适合多头思路。 $标普500ETF(SPY)$ 大盘比较两极分化，跟个股开仓有类似之处，同样有人做多剧烈波动。 但也不妨碍看涨期权乐观看涨650。 $Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$ 机构周五逼空后进行了roll仓，sell call 165 $PLTR 20250829 165.0 CALL$ ，对冲buy call 172.5 $PLTR 20250829 172.5 CALL$ 。 这种暴跌股票的sell call大单其实更具有逼空指标意义。 看跌回调意见非常不统一，很难想象周五反弹后押注黑天鹅暴跌的反而变多了。 就长线意义上来说目前这个价格还行，sell put价格可以考虑140。但如果资金有限，别的股票机会更好。 $美国超微公司(AMD)$ 机构sell call 172.5对冲买入182.5call。本周应该较难跌破160。 $联合健康(UNH)$ 不排除回调290，备兑sell call可以考虑330。 $英特尔(INTC)$ 有现金就是好啊，有政府托底英特尔开始看涨，本周可能不会低于24，可以考虑sell put。 $CoreWeave, Inc.(CRWV)$ 八成进入了洗盘期，震荡幅度过大，不排除本周再次回调85。 另外值得注意的是，大资金继续持续做多。做多方式是买入100call $CRWV 20260320 100.0 CALL$对冲卖出双倍165call $CRWV 20260320 165.0 CALL$ ，一来可以对冲看涨成本，二来可以对冲底部磨损的时间成本。 我一开始以为只是投机性看涨，但这张大单已经连续好几天买入了，目前成本已经达到千万级别，所以应该是大资金底部做多。 $阿里巴巴(BABA)$ 财报略看涨到125以上，当前价格很适合sell put $BABA 20250829 118.0 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