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希望 avgo 和 hood 回调

@期权小班长：小科技股的波动跟踪方法

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<a data-mention-id=\"NBIS\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"NEBIUS\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NBIS\">$NEBIUS(NBIS)$</a> </p><p>NBIS突然暴涨50%，不过很遗憾告诉大家，期权开仓没什么反应。</p><p>这种级别的利好，提前布局一般会买价外看涨期权，不过从看涨开仓来看几乎没有提前布局。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/257a5a1b2c489123cd9e7c831ff11d9c\" tg-width=\"1042\" tg-height=\"736\"></p><p>不过值得一提的是，NBIS这样的小公司也是有机构埋伏做当周策略的，只不过跟大家期盼的不太一样，机构上周五建仓后于周一又平仓了：</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2429f7f4801238b82272bb6f0542ae39\" tg-width=\"2476\" tg-height=\"462\"></p><p>跟成熟科技股的看涨价差套利策略不一样，对于小科技股机构选择了看涨和看跌各一条腿，但具体这两条腿的开仓方向，我一直都没太琢磨明白。</p><p>好消息是 <a data-mention-id=\"CRWV\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"CoreWeave, Inc.\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CRWV\">$CoreWeave, Inc.(CRWV)$</a> 也是一样的策略，比如机构开仓了本周到期的 <a data-mention-id=\"CRWV 20250912 80.0 PUT\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"CRWV\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/CRWV%2020250912%2080.0%20PUT\">$CRWV 20250912 80.0 PUT$</a>  <a data-mention-id=\"CRWV 20250912 97.5 CALL\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"CRWV\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/CRWV%2020250912%2097.5%20CALL\">$CRWV 20250912 97.5 CALL$</a> </p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fe649bf0d4b490f5021a37e868f546c9\" tg-width=\"2484\" tg-height=\"262\"></p><p>根据前两周观察，行权价选择比较偏向股价波动支撑位和阻力位，也就是本周CRWV会在80～97.5区间波动。</p><p>所以NBIS上周五开仓的67call和58put应该也类似，要不然不会在周一关仓。</p><p>我比较倾向于这个策略交易方是正股持有者进行持仓管理，要不然知道利好消息难道不应该马上加仓吗？</p><p>如果不出意外机构会在今晚重新开仓，到时候就有可以参考的波动区间了，CRWV同理。</p><p> <a data-mention-id=\"GME\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"游戏驿站\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GME\">$游戏驿站(GME)$</a> </p><p>GME将在9月9日盘后公布财报，值得注意的是，今年GME的远期看涨和看跌期权都特别活跃，感觉在酝酿什么暴涨暴跌。</p><p>其实都对，因为话说回来，到期日是27年，对于GME来说，总有一天会暴涨也总有一天会暴跌，波动率足够低的时候好像买什么都没太大问题，就是资金利用率有点低。这种小妖股等波动后做空波动率更划算。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9cf2aa1f2daaba0c1fbf9fb6b67465f8\" tg-width=\"1042\" tg-height=\"766\"></p><p> <a data-mention-id=\"AVGO\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"博通\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AVGO\">$博通(AVGO)$</a> </p><p>稳步看涨到400，近期会盘整，sell put行权价选择可以考虑325以下</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bee4a49d26319b1a92f5f6297f07bed6\" tg-width=\"1042\" tg-height=\"672\"></p><p> <a data-mention-id=\"NVDA\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"英伟达\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">$英伟达(NVDA)$</a> </p><p>AVGO的财报对英伟达造成了一些拉踩叙事，分析师认为企业更需要使用tpu所以会抢占一部分gpu的市场。不过现阶段震荡也可以理解为洗盘。</p><p>近期震荡造成比较明显的影响是，有一些看涨到200的long call持仓减仓了，另外还有一些远期sell call开仓。</p><p>本周未平仓区间比较集中，看涨集中在170～180，看跌集中在160～170区间。</p><p>本周波动区间160～175，也就是不排除会回调到160。也有一些极端看跌期权布局闪崩，但我觉得概率可能不太高，只要仓位不是满杠杆问题就不大。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ced60a0bebfa7255f8ffc3cf8093709c\" tg-width=\"1040\" tg-height=\"1052\"></p><p>拉踩英伟达受伤最严重的是AMD，目前来看AMD应该会回调到140，如果是sell put可以选140以下行权价或者等股价接近140再考虑抄底。</p><p> <a data-mention-id=\"ORCL\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"甲骨文\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ORCL\">$甲骨文(ORCL)$</a> </p><p>甲骨文9月9日盘后财报，因为获得了OpenAI的合同所以财报数据不差，分析师对公司预期跟AVGO的看法类似，就是当前股价反应了增长预期。</p><p>预计股价波动区间215～260，也比较符合期权开仓。做空波动率不建议做sell call，或者做sell call一定要做价差策略。因为看涨开仓跟AVGO有点类似，有些行权价看起来对财报预期更乐观。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7205713828529888aaa61ce0a2e6099c\" tg-width=\"1040\" tg-height=\"866\"></p><p> <a data-mention-id=\"HOOD\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"Robinhood\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HOOD\">$Robinhood(HOOD)$</a> </p><p>周一高开，机构割肉后开仓了一堆当周看涨价差，做空116～119看涨期权，对冲124～130。现在适合sell call。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/88aa86e9a6d064832c56dd9974a27031\" tg-width=\"1042\" tg-height=\"994\"></p></body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body><p> <a data-mention-id=\"NBIS\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"NEBIUS\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NBIS\">$NEBIUS(NBIS)$</a> </p><p>NBIS突然暴涨50%，不过很遗憾告诉大家，期权开仓没什么反应。</p><p>这种级别的利好，提前布局一般会买价外看涨期权，不过从看涨开仓来看几乎没有提前布局。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/257a5a1b2c489123cd9e7c831ff11d9c\" tg-width=\"1042\" tg-height=\"736\"></p><p>不过值得一提的是，NBIS这样的小公司也是有机构埋伏做当周策略的，只不过跟大家期盼的不太一样，机构上周五建仓后于周一又平仓了：</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2429f7f4801238b82272bb6f0542ae39\" tg-width=\"2476\" tg-height=\"462\"></p><p>跟成熟科技股的看涨价差套利策略不一样，对于小科技股机构选择了看涨和看跌各一条腿，但具体这两条腿的开仓方向，我一直都没太琢磨明白。</p><p>好消息是 <a data-mention-id=\"CRWV\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"CoreWeave, Inc.\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CRWV\">$CoreWeave, Inc.(CRWV)$</a> 也是一样的策略，比如机构开仓了本周到期的 <a data-mention-id=\"CRWV 20250912 80.0 PUT\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"CRWV\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/CRWV%2020250912%2080.0%20PUT\">$CRWV 20250912 80.0 PUT$</a>  <a data-mention-id=\"CRWV 20250912 97.5 CALL\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"CRWV\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/CRWV%2020250912%2097.5%20CALL\">$CRWV 20250912 97.5 CALL$</a> </p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fe649bf0d4b490f5021a37e868f546c9\" tg-width=\"2484\" tg-height=\"262\"></p><p>根据前两周观察，行权价选择比较偏向股价波动支撑位和阻力位，也就是本周CRWV会在80～97.5区间波动。</p><p>所以NBIS上周五开仓的67call和58put应该也类似，要不然不会在周一关仓。</p><p>我比较倾向于这个策略交易方是正股持有者进行持仓管理，要不然知道利好消息难道不应该马上加仓吗？</p><p>如果不出意外机构会在今晚重新开仓，到时候就有可以参考的波动区间了，CRWV同理。</p><p> <a data-mention-id=\"GME\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"游戏驿站\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GME\">$游戏驿站(GME)$</a> </p><p>GME将在9月9日盘后公布财报，值得注意的是，今年GME的远期看涨和看跌期权都特别活跃，感觉在酝酿什么暴涨暴跌。</p><p>其实都对，因为话说回来，到期日是27年，对于GME来说，总有一天会暴涨也总有一天会暴跌，波动率足够低的时候好像买什么都没太大问题，就是资金利用率有点低。这种小妖股等波动后做空波动率更划算。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9cf2aa1f2daaba0c1fbf9fb6b67465f8\" tg-width=\"1042\" tg-height=\"766\"></p><p> <a data-mention-id=\"AVGO\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"博通\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AVGO\">$博通(AVGO)$</a> </p><p>稳步看涨到400，近期会盘整，sell put行权价选择可以考虑325以下</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bee4a49d26319b1a92f5f6297f07bed6\" tg-width=\"1042\" tg-height=\"672\"></p><p> <a data-mention-id=\"NVDA\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"英伟达\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">$英伟达(NVDA)$</a> </p><p>AVGO的财报对英伟达造成了一些拉踩叙事，分析师认为企业更需要使用tpu所以会抢占一部分gpu的市场。不过现阶段震荡也可以理解为洗盘。</p><p>近期震荡造成比较明显的影响是，有一些看涨到200的long call持仓减仓了，另外还有一些远期sell call开仓。</p><p>本周未平仓区间比较集中，看涨集中在170～180，看跌集中在160～170区间。</p><p>本周波动区间160～175，也就是不排除会回调到160。也有一些极端看跌期权布局闪崩，但我觉得概率可能不太高，只要仓位不是满杠杆问题就不大。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ced60a0bebfa7255f8ffc3cf8093709c\" tg-width=\"1040\" tg-height=\"1052\"></p><p>拉踩英伟达受伤最严重的是AMD，目前来看AMD应该会回调到140，如果是sell put可以选140以下行权价或者等股价接近140再考虑抄底。</p><p> <a data-mention-id=\"ORCL\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"甲骨文\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ORCL\">$甲骨文(ORCL)$</a> </p><p>甲骨文9月9日盘后财报，因为获得了OpenAI的合同所以财报数据不差，分析师对公司预期跟AVGO的看法类似，就是当前股价反应了增长预期。</p><p>预计股价波动区间215～260，也比较符合期权开仓。做空波动率不建议做sell call，或者做sell call一定要做价差策略。因为看涨开仓跟AVGO有点类似，有些行权价看起来对财报预期更乐观。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7205713828529888aaa61ce0a2e6099c\" tg-width=\"1040\" tg-height=\"866\"></p><p> <a data-mention-id=\"HOOD\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"Robinhood\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HOOD\">$Robinhood(HOOD)$</a> </p><p>周一高开，机构割肉后开仓了一堆当周看涨价差，做空116～119看涨期权，对冲124～130。现在适合sell call。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/88aa86e9a6d064832c56dd9974a27031\" tg-width=\"1042\" tg-height=\"994\"></p></body></html>","text":"$NEBIUS(NBIS)$ NBIS突然暴涨50%，不过很遗憾告诉大家，期权开仓没什么反应。 这种级别的利好，提前布局一般会买价外看涨期权，不过从看涨开仓来看几乎没有提前布局。 不过值得一提的是，NBIS这样的小公司也是有机构埋伏做当周策略的，只不过跟大家期盼的不太一样，机构上周五建仓后于周一又平仓了： 跟成熟科技股的看涨价差套利策略不一样，对于小科技股机构选择了看涨和看跌各一条腿，但具体这两条腿的开仓方向，我一直都没太琢磨明白。 好消息是 $CoreWeave, Inc.(CRWV)$ 也是一样的策略，比如机构开仓了本周到期的 $CRWV 20250912 80.0 PUT$ $CRWV 20250912 97.5 CALL$ 根据前两周观察，行权价选择比较偏向股价波动支撑位和阻力位，也就是本周CRWV会在80～97.5区间波动。 所以NBIS上周五开仓的67call和58put应该也类似，要不然不会在周一关仓。 我比较倾向于这个策略交易方是正股持有者进行持仓管理，要不然知道利好消息难道不应该马上加仓吗？ 如果不出意外机构会在今晚重新开仓，到时候就有可以参考的波动区间了，CRWV同理。 $游戏驿站(GME)$ GME将在9月9日盘后公布财报，值得注意的是，今年GME的远期看涨和看跌期权都特别活跃，感觉在酝酿什么暴涨暴跌。 其实都对，因为话说回来，到期日是27年，对于GME来说，总有一天会暴涨也总有一天会暴跌，波动率足够低的时候好像买什么都没太大问题，就是资金利用率有点低。这种小妖股等波动后做空波动率更划算。 $博通(AVGO)$ 稳步看涨到400，近期会盘整，sell put行权价选择可以考虑325以下 $英伟达(NVDA)$ AVGO的财报对英伟达造成了一些拉踩叙事，分析师认为企业更需要使用tpu所以会抢占一部分gpu的市场。不过现阶段震荡也可以理解为洗盘。 近期震荡造成比较明显的影响是，有一些看涨到200的long call持仓减仓了，另外还有一些远期sell call开仓。 本周未平仓区间比较集中，看涨集中在170～180，看跌集中在160～170区间。 本周波动区间160～175，也就是不排除会回调到160。也有一些极端看跌期权布局闪崩，但我觉得概率可能不太高，只要仓位不是满杠杆问题就不大。 拉踩英伟达受伤最严重的是AMD，目前来看AMD应该会回调到140，如果是sell put可以选140以下行权价或者等股价接近140再考虑抄底。 $甲骨文(ORCL)$ 甲骨文9月9日盘后财报，因为获得了OpenAI的合同所以财报数据不差，分析师对公司预期跟AVGO的看法类似，就是当前股价反应了增长预期。 预计股价波动区间215～260，也比较符合期权开仓。做空波动率不建议做sell call，或者做sell call一定要做价差策略。因为看涨开仓跟AVGO有点类似，有些行权价看起来对财报预期更乐观。 $Robinhood(HOOD)$ 周一高开，机构割肉后开仓了一堆当周看涨价差，做空116～119看涨期权，对冲124～130。现在适合sell call。","highlighted":1,"essential":2,"paper":2,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/476868287389792","repostId":0,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"commentLimit":10,"symbols":["NVDA","CRWV","AVGO","NBIS","HOOD","ORCL","GME"],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":2113,"optionInvolvedFlag":true,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":183,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":18,"optionInvolvedFlag":false,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/476807123832968"}