梦想168
10-14
这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看
@期权小班长：
成交额约1000万美元的看跌大单做空kweb，风险还未结束？
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data-mention-id=\"KWEB\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"中国海外互联网ETF-KraneShares\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/KWEB\">$中国海外互联网ETF-KraneShares(KWEB)$</a> </p><p>宏观局势变化双方大盘都不能幸免，10月10日周五暴跌当天，kweb成交了8万手11月21日到期38put <a data-mention-id=\"KWEB 20251121 38.0 PUT\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"KWEB\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/KWEB%2020251121%2038.0%20PUT\">$KWEB 20251121 38.0 PUT$</a> ，成交额约1000万。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0faffa23fa8f659a0f248f11517cf364\" tg-width=\"2480\" tg-height=\"202\"></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ca1e76dc10a25d3ec389cb1b31637f11\" tg-width=\"2044\" tg-height=\"1460\"></p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bfd67dcb5920becf90a9a99a3db255f1\" tg-width=\"2022\" tg-height=\"1436\"></p><p> <a data-mention-id=\"FXI\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"中国大盘股ETF-iShares\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FXI\">$中国大盘股ETF-iShares(FXI)$</a> </p><p>同日FIX也开仓了看跌大单，到日期也是11月21日，39put <a data-mention-id=\"FXI 20251121 39.0 PUT\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"FXI\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/FXI%2020251121%2039.0%20PUT\">$FXI 20251121 39.0 PUT$</a> ，成交量约5万手，成交额约880万美元。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b49b44a759298f9be2772575d33331a6\" tg-width=\"2488\" tg-height=\"312\"></p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/50929e296045d98ac1e7cc8a74efc644\" tg-width=\"2040\" tg-height=\"1454\"></p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ff61744131990413e718fb3728d37581\" tg-width=\"2014\" tg-height=\"1444\"></p><p> <a data-mention-id=\"SQQQ\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"纳指三倍做空ETF\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SQQQ\">$纳指三倍做空ETF(SQQQ)$</a> </p><p>投机型看跌大单有sqqq的末日call <a data-mention-id=\"SQQQ 20251017 16.0 CALL\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"SQQQ\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/SQQQ%2020251017%2016.0%20CALL\">$SQQQ 20251017 16.0 CALL$</a> ，成交量2.5万手，成交额约180万。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2a7bbce598dddfc706b4e8d72facda8e\" tg-width=\"2484\" tg-height=\"310\"></p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/16a9f68364a681760c66fff1e66fdb82\" tg-width=\"2028\" tg-height=\"1446\"></p><p> <a data-mention-id=\"TSM\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"台积电\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSM\">$台积电(TSM)$</a> </p><p>作为10月份财报打头阵的第一支芯片股，台积电的表现特别重要，当然啥事都可能发生。</p><p>大仓位是牛市看涨价差：买300 <a data-mention-id=\"TSM 20251017 300.0 CALL\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"TSM\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/TSM%2020251017%20300.0%20CALL\">$TSM 20251017 300.0 CALL$</a> ，卖320 <a data-mention-id=\"TSM 20251017 320.0 CALL\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"TSM\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/TSM%2020251017%20320.0%20CALL\">$TSM 20251017 320.0 CALL$</a> 。不过考虑到是周五暴跌时开仓，应该已经获利了。</p><p>另一边如果本周谈判发生摩擦，不排除股价继续回调285以下 <a data-mention-id=\"TSM 20251017 285.0 PUT\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"TSM\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/TSM%2020251017%20285.0%20PUT\">$TSM 20251017 285.0 PUT$</a>，265以上 <a data-mention-id=\"TSM 20251017 265.0 PUT\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"TSM\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/TSM%2020251017%20265.0%20PUT\">$TSM 20251017 265.0 PUT$</a> </p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3f1ecfd610730c9bb5cfa81add5f61f2\" tg-width=\"1040\" tg-height=\"742\"></p><p> <a data-mention-id=\"SPY\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"标普500ETF\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SPY\">$标普500ETF(SPY)$</a> </p><p>周五开仓比较明确，市场预期往640回调。</p><p>空头押注末日期权今天回调645，因为川普taco预期落空。</p><p>其他看跌开仓有</p><p>buy <a data-mention-id=\"SPY 20251121 625.0 PUT\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"SPY\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/SPY%2020251121%20625.0%20PUT\">$SPY 20251121 625.0 PUT$</a> ，sell <a data-mention-id=\"SPY 20251121 620.0 PUT\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"SPY\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/SPY%2020251121%20620.0%20PUT\">$SPY 20251121 620.0 PUT$</a> </p><p>buy <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/SPY 20251128 650.0 PUT\">$SPY 20251128 650.0 PUT$ </a>，sell <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/SPY 20260116 600.0 PUT\">$SPY 20260116 600.0 PUT$ </a> </p><p>buy <a data-mention-id=\"SPY 20251107 640.0 PUT\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"SPY\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/SPY%2020251107%20640.0%20PUT\">$SPY 20251107 640.0 PUT$</a> ，sell <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/SPY 20251107 620.0 PUT\">$SPY 20251107 620.0 PUT$ </a> </p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0df389c60b8b31657b63150a82954e1a\" tg-width=\"1040\" tg-height=\"1024\"></p><p> <a data-mention-id=\"NVDA\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"英伟达\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">$英伟达(NVDA)$</a> </p><p>机构看涨价差非常克制，跟上周一样，因为回调忌讳卖低位看涨期权，反弹分分钟爆仓。主要预计股价低于192.5 <a data-mention-id=\"NVDA 20251017 192.5 CALL\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"NVDA\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/NVDA%2020251017%20192.5%20CALL\">$NVDA 20251017 192.5 CALL$</a> </p><p>中性的看跌预期是回调185～175 <a data-mention-id=\"NVDA 20251017 185.0 PUT\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"NVDA\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/NVDA%2020251017%20185.0%20PUT\">$NVDA 20251017 185.0 PUT$</a> <a data-mention-id=\"NVDA 20251017 175.0 PUT\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"NVDA\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/NVDA%2020251017%20175.0%20PUT\">$NVDA 20251017 175.0 PUT$</a> 。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1d71cf5f085b744f017ad016aa1463ac\" tg-width=\"1040\" tg-height=\"1058\"></p><p> <a data-mention-id=\"PLTR\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"Palantir Technologies Inc.\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PLTR\">$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$</a> </p><p>pltr比较典型的看跌开仓集中于开会前，所以就最近三周走势会速战速决。</p><p>机构给出近两周震荡区间是165～185 <a data-mention-id=\"PLTR 20251024 165.0 PUT\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"PLTR\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/PLTR%2020251024%20165.0%20PUT\">$PLTR 20251024 165.0 PUT$</a> <a data-mention-id=\"PLTR 20251024 185.0 CALL\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"PLTR\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/PLTR%2020251024%20185.0%20CALL\">$PLTR 20251024 185.0 CALL$</a> ，不知道为何没对17号当周做规划。</p><p>看涨价差策略也跟上周一样，sell187.5 <a data-mention-id=\"PLTR 20251017 187.5 CALL\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"PLTR\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/PLTR%2020251017%20187.5%20CALL\">$PLTR 20251017 187.5 CALL$</a> ，buy197.5 <a data-mention-id=\"PLTR 20251017 197.5 CALL\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"PLTR\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/PLTR%2020251017%20197.5%20CALL\">$PLTR 20251017 197.5 CALL$</a> </p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0ed264d187299dcf051952b0b84c8cba\" tg-width=\"1040\" tg-height=\"896\"></p><p> <a data-mention-id=\"AVGO\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"博通\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AVGO\">$博通(AVGO)$</a> </p><p>博通有long call移仓，从12月330call移仓到310call</p><p>平仓 <a data-mention-id=\"AVGO 20251219 330.0 CALL\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"AVGO\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/AVGO%2020251219%20330.0%20CALL\">$AVGO 20251219 330.0 CALL$</a> ，开仓 <a data-mention-id=\"AVGO 20251219 310.0 CALL\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"AVGO\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/AVGO%2020251219%20310.0%20CALL\">$AVGO 20251219 310.0 CALL$</a> </p><p>博通的股价走势和期权变动很有代表性，近三周可能大部分AI芯片股都会在利好和利空之间来回震荡。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/30035ad286bdff7c4a16cdc9f77eba07\" tg-width=\"2488\" tg-height=\"158\"></p><p></p></body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body><p>周末又复盘了一下，感觉这次可能又要见证历史了。</p><p>理解本轮回调的重点是理解空头做空spy到600的理由是什么。</p><p>有人可能问，川普不是周末taco了吗？这就是问题所在，本轮重点不在川普身上，而在我方。</p><p>目前来看攻守之势已换，美方口头服软过快。而我们并没有对周末进行回应。所以真正的谈判还没有正式开始。</p><p>一个比较令人在意的点是，在AI上升至国本问题后，我方的目的可能和4月份不一样了。</p><p>tiktok落地带来一定的迷惑性，大家已经默认两家已经谈好了。</p><p>但经历过一系列事件后：英伟达禁令，英伟达收购反垄断不通过，高通违反反垄断禁令。这次稀土事件应该并不简单，如果地缘格局重新起变化，那spy回到600概率可能会更高。</p><p>当然也不排除梦幻结局美方滑跪谈判顺利各方满意。总之市场能进行反映的窗口期很短，到31号开会仅有三周，时间紧任务重，这周跟下周决胜负。</p><p><a data-mention-id=\"KWEB\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"中国海外互联网ETF-KraneShares\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/KWEB\">$中国海外互联网ETF-KraneShares(KWEB)$</a> </p><p>宏观局势变化双方大盘都不能幸免，10月10日周五暴跌当天，kweb成交了8万手11月21日到期38put <a data-mention-id=\"KWEB 20251121 38.0 PUT\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"KWEB\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/KWEB%2020251121%2038.0%20PUT\">$KWEB 20251121 38.0 PUT$</a> ，成交额约1000万。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0faffa23fa8f659a0f248f11517cf364\" tg-width=\"2480\" tg-height=\"202\"></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ca1e76dc10a25d3ec389cb1b31637f11\" tg-width=\"2044\" tg-height=\"1460\"></p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bfd67dcb5920becf90a9a99a3db255f1\" tg-width=\"2022\" tg-height=\"1436\"></p><p> <a data-mention-id=\"FXI\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"中国大盘股ETF-iShares\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FXI\">$中国大盘股ETF-iShares(FXI)$</a> </p><p>同日FIX也开仓了看跌大单，到日期也是11月21日，39put <a data-mention-id=\"FXI 20251121 39.0 PUT\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"FXI\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/FXI%2020251121%2039.0%20PUT\">$FXI 20251121 39.0 PUT$</a> ，成交量约5万手，成交额约880万美元。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b49b44a759298f9be2772575d33331a6\" tg-width=\"2488\" tg-height=\"312\"></p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/50929e296045d98ac1e7cc8a74efc644\" tg-width=\"2040\" tg-height=\"1454\"></p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ff61744131990413e718fb3728d37581\" tg-width=\"2014\" tg-height=\"1444\"></p><p> <a data-mention-id=\"SQQQ\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"纳指三倍做空ETF\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SQQQ\">$纳指三倍做空ETF(SQQQ)$</a> </p><p>投机型看跌大单有sqqq的末日call <a data-mention-id=\"SQQQ 20251017 16.0 CALL\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"SQQQ\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/SQQQ%2020251017%2016.0%20CALL\">$SQQQ 20251017 16.0 CALL$</a> ，成交量2.5万手，成交额约180万。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2a7bbce598dddfc706b4e8d72facda8e\" tg-width=\"2484\" tg-height=\"310\"></p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/16a9f68364a681760c66fff1e66fdb82\" tg-width=\"2028\" tg-height=\"1446\"></p><p> <a data-mention-id=\"TSM\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"台积电\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSM\">$台积电(TSM)$</a> </p><p>作为10月份财报打头阵的第一支芯片股，台积电的表现特别重要，当然啥事都可能发生。</p><p>大仓位是牛市看涨价差：买300 <a data-mention-id=\"TSM 20251017 300.0 CALL\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"TSM\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/TSM%2020251017%20300.0%20CALL\">$TSM 20251017 300.0 CALL$</a> ，卖320 <a data-mention-id=\"TSM 20251017 320.0 CALL\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"TSM\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/TSM%2020251017%20320.0%20CALL\">$TSM 20251017 320.0 CALL$</a> 。不过考虑到是周五暴跌时开仓，应该已经获利了。</p><p>另一边如果本周谈判发生摩擦，不排除股价继续回调285以下 <a data-mention-id=\"TSM 20251017 285.0 PUT\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"TSM\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/TSM%2020251017%20285.0%20PUT\">$TSM 20251017 285.0 PUT$</a>，265以上 <a data-mention-id=\"TSM 20251017 265.0 PUT\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"TSM\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/TSM%2020251017%20265.0%20PUT\">$TSM 20251017 265.0 PUT$</a> </p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3f1ecfd610730c9bb5cfa81add5f61f2\" tg-width=\"1040\" tg-height=\"742\"></p><p> <a data-mention-id=\"SPY\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"标普500ETF\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SPY\">$标普500ETF(SPY)$</a> </p><p>周五开仓比较明确，市场预期往640回调。</p><p>空头押注末日期权今天回调645，因为川普taco预期落空。</p><p>其他看跌开仓有</p><p>buy <a data-mention-id=\"SPY 20251121 625.0 PUT\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"SPY\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/SPY%2020251121%20625.0%20PUT\">$SPY 20251121 625.0 PUT$</a> ，sell <a data-mention-id=\"SPY 20251121 620.0 PUT\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"SPY\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/SPY%2020251121%20620.0%20PUT\">$SPY 20251121 620.0 PUT$</a> </p><p>buy <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/SPY 20251128 650.0 PUT\">$SPY 20251128 650.0 PUT$ </a>，sell <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/SPY 20260116 600.0 PUT\">$SPY 20260116 600.0 PUT$ </a> </p><p>buy <a data-mention-id=\"SPY 20251107 640.0 PUT\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"SPY\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/SPY%2020251107%20640.0%20PUT\">$SPY 20251107 640.0 PUT$</a> ，sell <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/SPY 20251107 620.0 PUT\">$SPY 20251107 620.0 PUT$ </a> </p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0df389c60b8b31657b63150a82954e1a\" tg-width=\"1040\" tg-height=\"1024\"></p><p> <a data-mention-id=\"NVDA\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"英伟达\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">$英伟达(NVDA)$</a> </p><p>机构看涨价差非常克制，跟上周一样，因为回调忌讳卖低位看涨期权，反弹分分钟爆仓。主要预计股价低于192.5 <a data-mention-id=\"NVDA 20251017 192.5 CALL\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"NVDA\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/NVDA%2020251017%20192.5%20CALL\">$NVDA 20251017 192.5 CALL$</a> </p><p>中性的看跌预期是回调185～175 <a data-mention-id=\"NVDA 20251017 185.0 PUT\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"NVDA\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/NVDA%2020251017%20185.0%20PUT\">$NVDA 20251017 185.0 PUT$</a> <a data-mention-id=\"NVDA 20251017 175.0 PUT\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"NVDA\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/NVDA%2020251017%20175.0%20PUT\">$NVDA 20251017 175.0 PUT$</a> 。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1d71cf5f085b744f017ad016aa1463ac\" tg-width=\"1040\" tg-height=\"1058\"></p><p> <a data-mention-id=\"PLTR\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"Palantir Technologies Inc.\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PLTR\">$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$</a> </p><p>pltr比较典型的看跌开仓集中于开会前，所以就最近三周走势会速战速决。</p><p>机构给出近两周震荡区间是165～185 <a data-mention-id=\"PLTR 20251024 165.0 PUT\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"PLTR\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/PLTR%2020251024%20165.0%20PUT\">$PLTR 20251024 165.0 PUT$</a> <a data-mention-id=\"PLTR 20251024 185.0 CALL\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"PLTR\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/PLTR%2020251024%20185.0%20CALL\">$PLTR 20251024 185.0 CALL$</a> ，不知道为何没对17号当周做规划。</p><p>看涨价差策略也跟上周一样，sell187.5 <a data-mention-id=\"PLTR 20251017 187.5 CALL\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"PLTR\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/PLTR%2020251017%20187.5%20CALL\">$PLTR 20251017 187.5 CALL$</a> ，buy197.5 <a data-mention-id=\"PLTR 20251017 197.5 CALL\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"PLTR\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/PLTR%2020251017%20197.5%20CALL\">$PLTR 20251017 197.5 CALL$</a> </p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0ed264d187299dcf051952b0b84c8cba\" tg-width=\"1040\" tg-height=\"896\"></p><p> <a data-mention-id=\"AVGO\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"博通\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AVGO\">$博通(AVGO)$</a> </p><p>博通有long call移仓，从12月330call移仓到310call</p><p>平仓 <a data-mention-id=\"AVGO 20251219 330.0 CALL\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"AVGO\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/AVGO%2020251219%20330.0%20CALL\">$AVGO 20251219 330.0 CALL$</a> ，开仓 <a data-mention-id=\"AVGO 20251219 310.0 CALL\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"AVGO\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/AVGO%2020251219%20310.0%20CALL\">$AVGO 20251219 310.0 CALL$</a> </p><p>博通的股价走势和期权变动很有代表性，近三周可能大部分AI芯片股都会在利好和利空之间来回震荡。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/30035ad286bdff7c4a16cdc9f77eba07\" tg-width=\"2488\" tg-height=\"158\"></p><p></p></body></html>","text":"周末又复盘了一下，感觉这次可能又要见证历史了。 理解本轮回调的重点是理解空头做空spy到600的理由是什么。 有人可能问，川普不是周末taco了吗？这就是问题所在，本轮重点不在川普身上，而在我方。 目前来看攻守之势已换，美方口头服软过快。而我们并没有对周末进行回应。所以真正的谈判还没有正式开始。 一个比较令人在意的点是，在AI上升至国本问题后，我方的目的可能和4月份不一样了。 tiktok落地带来一定的迷惑性，大家已经默认两家已经谈好了。 但经历过一系列事件后：英伟达禁令，英伟达收购反垄断不通过，高通违反反垄断禁令。这次稀土事件应该并不简单，如果地缘格局重新起变化，那spy回到600概率可能会更高。 当然也不排除梦幻结局美方滑跪谈判顺利各方满意。总之市场能进行反映的窗口期很短，到31号开会仅有三周，时间紧任务重，这周跟下周决胜负。 $中国海外互联网ETF-KraneShares(KWEB)$ 宏观局势变化双方大盘都不能幸免，10月10日周五暴跌当天，kweb成交了8万手11月21日到期38put $KWEB 20251121 38.0 PUT$ ，成交额约1000万。 $中国大盘股ETF-iShares(FXI)$ 同日FIX也开仓了看跌大单，到日期也是11月21日，39put $FXI 20251121 39.0 PUT$ ，成交量约5万手，成交额约880万美元。 $纳指三倍做空ETF(SQQQ)$ 投机型看跌大单有sqqq的末日call $SQQQ 20251017 16.0 CALL$ ，成交量2.5万手，成交额约180万。 $台积电(TSM)$ 作为10月份财报打头阵的第一支芯片股，台积电的表现特别重要，当然啥事都可能发生。 大仓位是牛市看涨价差：买300 $TSM 20251017 300.0 CALL$ ，卖320 $TSM 20251017 320.0 CALL$ 。不过考虑到是周五暴跌时开仓，应该已经获利了。 另一边如果本周谈判发生摩擦，不排除股价继续回调285以下 $TSM 20251017 285.0 PUT$，265以上 $TSM 20251017 265.0 PUT$ $标普500ETF(SPY)$ 周五开仓比较明确，市场预期往640回调。 空头押注末日期权今天回调645，因为川普taco预期落空。 其他看跌开仓有 buy $SPY 20251121 625.0 PUT$ ，sell $SPY 20251121 620.0 PUT$ buy $SPY 20251128 650.0 PUT$ ，sell $SPY 20260116 600.0 PUT$ buy $SPY 20251107 640.0 PUT$ ，sell $SPY 20251107 620.0 PUT$ $英伟达(NVDA)$ 机构看涨价差非常克制，跟上周一样，因为回调忌讳卖低位看涨期权，反弹分分钟爆仓。主要预计股价低于192.5 $NVDA 20251017 192.5 CALL$ 中性的看跌预期是回调185～175 $NVDA 20251017 185.0 PUT$ $NVDA 20251017 175.0 PUT$ 。 $Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$ pltr比较典型的看跌开仓集中于开会前，所以就最近三周走势会速战速决。 机构给出近两周震荡区间是165～185 $PLTR 20251024 165.0 PUT$ $PLTR 20251024 185.0 CALL$ ，不知道为何没对17号当周做规划。 看涨价差策略也跟上周一样，sell187.5 $PLTR 20251017 187.5 CALL$ ，buy197.5 $PLTR 20251017 197.5 CALL$ $博通(AVGO)$ 博通有long call移仓，从12月330call移仓到310call 平仓 $AVGO 20251219 330.0 CALL$ ，开仓 $AVGO 20251219 310.0 CALL$ 博通的股价走势和期权变动很有代表性，近三周可能大部分AI芯片股都会在利好和利空之间来回震荡。","highlighted":1,"essential":2,"paper":2,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/488899228831992","repostId":0,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"commentLimit":10,"symbols":["NVDA","KWEB","TSM","FXI","AVGO","SPY","SQQQ","PLTR","SPY 20260116 600.0 PUT","SPY 20251128 650.0 PUT","AVGO 20251219 330.0 CALL","AVGO 20251219 310.0 CALL"],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":2330,"optionInvolvedFlag":true,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":577,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":27,"optionInvolvedFlag":false,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/489147176304760"}
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