悟空的花果山
11-05 11:56
回调两周正好 nvda 财报
@期权小班长：
特朗普小儿子做空QQQ，大空头做空NVDA和PLTR是怎么回事
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<a data-mention-id=\"QQQ\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"纳指100ETF\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QQQ\">$纳指100ETF(QQQ)$</a> </p><p>下午有这么一条消息，说特朗普的小儿子于11月3日买入了2万多手QQQ的570put <a data-mention-id=\"QQQ 20251231 570.0 PUT\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"QQQ\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/QQQ%2020251231%20570.0%20PUT\">$QQQ 20251231 570.0 PUT$</a> ，价值约1090万美元。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9daf31e202c31e4f952ee81b01b04935\" tg-width=\"1290\" tg-height=\"232\"></p><p>这笔交易清晰的记录在行情图上，因为极度价外期权交易需求不大，所以很确定那一根成交量柱子就是巴伦干的。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/816c5de3215f061858b584f574f48409\" tg-width=\"1206\" tg-height=\"2622\"></p><p>回调570是个什么概念，市场整体大约回调10%。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d7f16154597f2a935896712327ef8ac2\" tg-width=\"1996\" tg-height=\"1434\"></p><p>对于巴伦这笔交易的原因，大家有很多猜测。此前市场有一些传言，说巴伦有一个炒股群，入门门槛是100万美元。此前也有过一些战绩，但均配合特朗普政策进行交易。</p><p>也就是说，巴伦操作常常匹配政策出货，那么推断这次看空可能也是一样的情况。问题就在这儿，从这次谈判来看特朗普变得很务实，不太像能继续喊口号做空的样子。那这次做空判断来自哪里就很有意思了。</p><p>有意思的是10月31日周五QQQ的期权开仓，可以看到有目标指向570的做空。一个是单腿买入看跌 <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/QQQ 20260116 560.0 PUT\">$QQQ 20260116 560.0 PUT$ </a> 。</p><p>另一个是比率看跌价差买入640put <a data-mention-id=\"QQQ 20260320 640.0 CALL\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"QQQ\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/QQQ%2020260320%20640.0%20CALL\">$QQQ 20260320 640.0 CALL$</a> 卖出3倍570put对冲 <a data-mention-id=\"QQQ 20260320 570.0 PUT\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"QQQ\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/QQQ%2020260320%20570.0%20PUT\">$QQQ 20260320 570.0 PUT$</a> 。这个策略充分说明看空者并不预期会跌到570。</p><p>那么目标价是哪里呢，看跌最大开仓是12月到期600put <a data-mention-id=\"QQQ 20251219 600.0 PUT\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"QQQ\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/QQQ%2020251219%20600.0%20PUT\">$QQQ 20251219 600.0 PUT$</a> ，开仓3万手，大约是5%回调，也就是回调到本次谈判前市场的位置。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/57f817e2da18f8eba36816f6ab2f27a8\" tg-width=\"1042\" tg-height=\"1056\"></p><p>另外有意思的是，同日大空头michael burry<strong><u>提前两周披露</u></strong>三季13f持仓，如图，做空 <a data-mention-id=\"PLTR\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"Palantir Technologies Inc.\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PLTR\">$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$</a> 和 <a data-mention-id=\"NVDA\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"英伟达\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">$英伟达(NVDA)$</a> 。前者空头仓位达到9.12亿，后者仓位达到1.86亿。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/201c99434209e1938c170b612dda7d70\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"1247\"></p><p>我画了重点，提前两周公布，那么合理推断是两周后就跌完了，不过一般来说美股跌起来也很快就是了。</p><p>如果是两周跌完，考虑一下时间可以算在11月底前完成回调，那么比较极限的期权到期日选择在12月合适。</p><p>重点是近期PLTR和NVDA真有12月到期的看跌期权开仓：</p><p>nvda是12月到期200put <a data-mention-id=\"NVDA 20251219 200.0 PUT\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"NVDA\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/NVDA%2020251219%20200.0%20PUT\">$NVDA 20251219 200.0 PUT$</a> ，近期密集开仓，1.9万手未平仓中有1.3万手是近期开仓。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d6fda019563f988464a5acc0c5903e93\" tg-width=\"1206\" tg-height=\"2177\"></p><p>PLTR是12月到期180put <a data-mention-id=\"PLTR 20251219 180.0 PUT\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"PLTR\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/PLTR%2020251219%20180.0%20PUT\">$PLTR 20251219 180.0 PUT$</a> ，如图也是近期密集开仓，1.7万手未平仓中有1.3万手未平仓是近期开仓。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7c76d3f311e94b40ea98863a78ecc6bf\" tg-width=\"1206\" tg-height=\"2145\"></p><p>我猜这两张期权可能属于空单的一部分，不是全部，不过可以从近期期权一窥做空目标价，可能大空头的目标也是回到谈判前的价位。</p><p>所以总体来看本次回调，spy回到665，当然不排除恐慌助攻进一步回调至650。其他股票回调位置大概相似。总之就是我之前说的，没有回调空间，创造回调空间。</p><p> <a data-mention-id=\"AMD\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"美国超微公司\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMD\">$美国超微公司(AMD)$</a> </p><p>我之前认为AMD财报应该会反应平平，但目前来看会领先回调。</p><p>周一开仓了两个本周看跌期权230put <a data-mention-id=\"AMD 20251107 230.0 PUT\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"AMD\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/AMD%2020251107%20230.0%20PUT\">$AMD 20251107 230.0 PUT$</a> 和240put <a data-mention-id=\"AMD 20251107 240.0 PUT\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"AMD\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/AMD%2020251107%20240.0%20PUT\">$AMD 20251107 240.0 PUT$</a> ，都是单腿看跌，分别开仓1.24万手和1.16万手，成交额约250万和约500万，这个数量级的末日开仓，已经不必做做多的打算了。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/67d1ba2e1607336b2793db3409e96e9a\" tg-width=\"2484\" tg-height=\"156\"></p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7125c5d76422f3e782b370adb2060eb9\" tg-width=\"1040\" tg-height=\"898\"></p><p> <a data-mention-id=\"NVDA\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"英伟达\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">$英伟达(NVDA)$</a> </p><p>NVDA要说看跌期权有什么异常的话，就是本周到期看跌开仓前排数量过多，有种向下逼空即视感。</p><p>考虑跟随大盘可能回调180，但感觉概率比较低。180也是比较安全的价位了。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9258d740a0f953d275202e15857efe33\" tg-width=\"1038\" tg-height=\"1058\"></p><p> <a data-mention-id=\"TSLA\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"特斯拉\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$</a> </p><p>long call roll仓，从11月415call <a data-mention-id=\"TSLA 20251121 415.0 CALL\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"TSLA\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/TSLA%2020251121%20415.0%20CALL\">$TSLA 20251121 415.0 CALL$</a> roll到明年1月470call <a data-mention-id=\"TSLA 20260116 470.0 CALL\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"TSLA\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/TSLA%2020260116%20470.0%20CALL\">$TSLA 20260116 470.0 CALL$</a> </p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1f850dd87e2e2e550fe056be6f2a08ed\" tg-width=\"2484\" tg-height=\"148\"></p><p> <a data-mention-id=\"AMZN\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"亚马逊\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">$亚马逊(AMZN)$</a> </p><p>long call roll仓，从11月210call <a data-mention-id=\"AMZN 20251121 210.0 CALL\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"AMZN\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/AMZN%2020251121%20210.0%20CALL\">$AMZN 20251121 210.0 CALL$</a> roll到明年2月到期220call <a data-mention-id=\"AMZN 20260220 220.0 CALL\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"AMZN\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/AMZN%2020260220%20220.0%20CALL\">$AMZN 20260220 220.0 CALL$</a> ，需要注意低于股价，机构非常保守，预期不高。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/52f7005b5948d1aa1ed7a1d90798a834\" tg-width=\"2480\" tg-height=\"208\"></p><p> <a data-mention-id=\"META\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"Meta Platforms, Inc.\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/META\">$Meta Platforms, Inc.(META)$</a> </p><p>meta财报后进行了一次roll仓，从700 <a data-mention-id=\"META 20251121 700.0 CALL\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"META\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/META%2020251121%20700.0%20CALL\">$META 20251121 700.0 CALL$</a> roll到640 <a data-mention-id=\"META 20260116 640.0 CALL\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"META\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/META%2020260116%20640.0%20CALL\">$META 20260116 640.0 CALL$</a> </p><p>不过大盘情况突然恶化导致再次roll仓，从1月到期640 <a data-mention-id=\"META 20260116 640.0 CALL\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"META\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/META%2020260116%20640.0%20CALL\">$META 20260116 640.0 CALL$</a>roll到2月到期600 <a data-mention-id=\"META 20260220 600.0 CALL\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"META\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/META%2020260220%20600.0%20CALL\">$META 20260220 600.0 CALL$</a> ，下调了行权价。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c93409e9e6ec4e5ce128dd5685669489\" tg-width=\"2482\" tg-height=\"150\"></p><p> <a data-mention-id=\"HOOD\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"Robinhood\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HOOD\">$Robinhood(HOOD)$</a> </p><p>HOOD本周财报，波动率很高，多头和空头都有。</p><p>常规看涨价差是sell160 <a data-mention-id=\"HOOD 20251107 160.0 CALL\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"HOOD\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/HOOD%2020251107%20160.0%20CALL\">$HOOD 20251107 160.0 CALL$</a> ，对冲buy175call <a data-mention-id=\"HOOD 20251107 175.0 CALL\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"HOOD\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/HOOD%2020251107%20175.0%20CALL\">$HOOD 20251107 175.0 CALL$</a> </p><p>双买选择买入155call <a data-mention-id=\"HOOD 20251107 155.0 CALL\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"HOOD\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/HOOD%2020251107%20155.0%20CALL\">$HOOD 20251107 155.0 CALL$</a> 和135put <a data-mention-id=\"HOOD 20251107 135.0 PUT\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"HOOD\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/HOOD%2020251107%20135.0%20PUT\">$HOOD 20251107 135.0 PUT$</a> ，对冲sell put120<a data-mention-id=\"HOOD 20251107 120.0 PUT\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"HOOD\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/HOOD%2020251107%20120.0%20PUT\">$HOOD 20251107 120.0 PUT$</a> </p><p>此外还有买入140put做空 <a data-mention-id=\"HOOD 20251219 140.0 PUT\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"HOOD\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/HOOD%2020251219%20140.0%20PUT\">$HOOD 20251219 140.0 PUT$</a> ，当然从盘前情况来看140put已经获利了。</p></body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body><p> <a data-mention-id=\"QQQ\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"纳指100ETF\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QQQ\">$纳指100ETF(QQQ)$</a> </p><p>下午有这么一条消息，说特朗普的小儿子于11月3日买入了2万多手QQQ的570put <a data-mention-id=\"QQQ 20251231 570.0 PUT\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"QQQ\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/QQQ%2020251231%20570.0%20PUT\">$QQQ 20251231 570.0 PUT$</a> ，价值约1090万美元。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9daf31e202c31e4f952ee81b01b04935\" tg-width=\"1290\" tg-height=\"232\"></p><p>这笔交易清晰的记录在行情图上，因为极度价外期权交易需求不大，所以很确定那一根成交量柱子就是巴伦干的。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/816c5de3215f061858b584f574f48409\" tg-width=\"1206\" tg-height=\"2622\"></p><p>回调570是个什么概念，市场整体大约回调10%。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d7f16154597f2a935896712327ef8ac2\" tg-width=\"1996\" tg-height=\"1434\"></p><p>对于巴伦这笔交易的原因，大家有很多猜测。此前市场有一些传言，说巴伦有一个炒股群，入门门槛是100万美元。此前也有过一些战绩，但均配合特朗普政策进行交易。</p><p>也就是说，巴伦操作常常匹配政策出货，那么推断这次看空可能也是一样的情况。问题就在这儿，从这次谈判来看特朗普变得很务实，不太像能继续喊口号做空的样子。那这次做空判断来自哪里就很有意思了。</p><p>有意思的是10月31日周五QQQ的期权开仓，可以看到有目标指向570的做空。一个是单腿买入看跌 <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/QQQ 20260116 560.0 PUT\">$QQQ 20260116 560.0 PUT$ </a> 。</p><p>另一个是比率看跌价差买入640put <a data-mention-id=\"QQQ 20260320 640.0 CALL\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"QQQ\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/QQQ%2020260320%20640.0%20CALL\">$QQQ 20260320 640.0 CALL$</a> 卖出3倍570put对冲 <a data-mention-id=\"QQQ 20260320 570.0 PUT\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"QQQ\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/QQQ%2020260320%20570.0%20PUT\">$QQQ 20260320 570.0 PUT$</a> 。这个策略充分说明看空者并不预期会跌到570。</p><p>那么目标价是哪里呢，看跌最大开仓是12月到期600put <a data-mention-id=\"QQQ 20251219 600.0 PUT\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"QQQ\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/QQQ%2020251219%20600.0%20PUT\">$QQQ 20251219 600.0 PUT$</a> ，开仓3万手，大约是5%回调，也就是回调到本次谈判前市场的位置。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/57f817e2da18f8eba36816f6ab2f27a8\" tg-width=\"1042\" tg-height=\"1056\"></p><p>另外有意思的是，同日大空头michael burry<strong><u>提前两周披露</u></strong>三季13f持仓，如图，做空 <a data-mention-id=\"PLTR\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"Palantir Technologies Inc.\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PLTR\">$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$</a> 和 <a data-mention-id=\"NVDA\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"英伟达\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">$英伟达(NVDA)$</a> 。前者空头仓位达到9.12亿，后者仓位达到1.86亿。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/201c99434209e1938c170b612dda7d70\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"1247\"></p><p>我画了重点，提前两周公布，那么合理推断是两周后就跌完了，不过一般来说美股跌起来也很快就是了。</p><p>如果是两周跌完，考虑一下时间可以算在11月底前完成回调，那么比较极限的期权到期日选择在12月合适。</p><p>重点是近期PLTR和NVDA真有12月到期的看跌期权开仓：</p><p>nvda是12月到期200put <a data-mention-id=\"NVDA 20251219 200.0 PUT\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"NVDA\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/NVDA%2020251219%20200.0%20PUT\">$NVDA 20251219 200.0 PUT$</a> ，近期密集开仓，1.9万手未平仓中有1.3万手是近期开仓。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d6fda019563f988464a5acc0c5903e93\" tg-width=\"1206\" tg-height=\"2177\"></p><p>PLTR是12月到期180put <a data-mention-id=\"PLTR 20251219 180.0 PUT\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"PLTR\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/PLTR%2020251219%20180.0%20PUT\">$PLTR 20251219 180.0 PUT$</a> ，如图也是近期密集开仓，1.7万手未平仓中有1.3万手未平仓是近期开仓。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7c76d3f311e94b40ea98863a78ecc6bf\" tg-width=\"1206\" tg-height=\"2145\"></p><p>我猜这两张期权可能属于空单的一部分，不是全部，不过可以从近期期权一窥做空目标价，可能大空头的目标也是回到谈判前的价位。</p><p>所以总体来看本次回调，spy回到665，当然不排除恐慌助攻进一步回调至650。其他股票回调位置大概相似。总之就是我之前说的，没有回调空间，创造回调空间。</p><p> <a data-mention-id=\"AMD\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"美国超微公司\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMD\">$美国超微公司(AMD)$</a> </p><p>我之前认为AMD财报应该会反应平平，但目前来看会领先回调。</p><p>周一开仓了两个本周看跌期权230put <a data-mention-id=\"AMD 20251107 230.0 PUT\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"AMD\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/AMD%2020251107%20230.0%20PUT\">$AMD 20251107 230.0 PUT$</a> 和240put <a data-mention-id=\"AMD 20251107 240.0 PUT\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"AMD\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/AMD%2020251107%20240.0%20PUT\">$AMD 20251107 240.0 PUT$</a> ，都是单腿看跌，分别开仓1.24万手和1.16万手，成交额约250万和约500万，这个数量级的末日开仓，已经不必做做多的打算了。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/67d1ba2e1607336b2793db3409e96e9a\" tg-width=\"2484\" tg-height=\"156\"></p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7125c5d76422f3e782b370adb2060eb9\" tg-width=\"1040\" tg-height=\"898\"></p><p> <a data-mention-id=\"NVDA\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"英伟达\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">$英伟达(NVDA)$</a> </p><p>NVDA要说看跌期权有什么异常的话，就是本周到期看跌开仓前排数量过多，有种向下逼空即视感。</p><p>考虑跟随大盘可能回调180，但感觉概率比较低。180也是比较安全的价位了。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9258d740a0f953d275202e15857efe33\" tg-width=\"1038\" tg-height=\"1058\"></p><p> <a data-mention-id=\"TSLA\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"特斯拉\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$</a> </p><p>long call roll仓，从11月415call <a data-mention-id=\"TSLA 20251121 415.0 CALL\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"TSLA\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/TSLA%2020251121%20415.0%20CALL\">$TSLA 20251121 415.0 CALL$</a> roll到明年1月470call <a data-mention-id=\"TSLA 20260116 470.0 CALL\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"TSLA\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/TSLA%2020260116%20470.0%20CALL\">$TSLA 20260116 470.0 CALL$</a> </p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1f850dd87e2e2e550fe056be6f2a08ed\" tg-width=\"2484\" tg-height=\"148\"></p><p> <a data-mention-id=\"AMZN\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"亚马逊\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">$亚马逊(AMZN)$</a> </p><p>long call roll仓，从11月210call <a data-mention-id=\"AMZN 20251121 210.0 CALL\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"AMZN\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/AMZN%2020251121%20210.0%20CALL\">$AMZN 20251121 210.0 CALL$</a> roll到明年2月到期220call <a data-mention-id=\"AMZN 20260220 220.0 CALL\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"AMZN\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/AMZN%2020260220%20220.0%20CALL\">$AMZN 20260220 220.0 CALL$</a> ，需要注意低于股价，机构非常保守，预期不高。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/52f7005b5948d1aa1ed7a1d90798a834\" tg-width=\"2480\" tg-height=\"208\"></p><p> <a data-mention-id=\"META\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"Meta Platforms, Inc.\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/META\">$Meta Platforms, Inc.(META)$</a> </p><p>meta财报后进行了一次roll仓，从700 <a data-mention-id=\"META 20251121 700.0 CALL\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"META\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/META%2020251121%20700.0%20CALL\">$META 20251121 700.0 CALL$</a> roll到640 <a data-mention-id=\"META 20260116 640.0 CALL\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"META\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/META%2020260116%20640.0%20CALL\">$META 20260116 640.0 CALL$</a> </p><p>不过大盘情况突然恶化导致再次roll仓，从1月到期640 <a data-mention-id=\"META 20260116 640.0 CALL\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"META\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/META%2020260116%20640.0%20CALL\">$META 20260116 640.0 CALL$</a>roll到2月到期600 <a data-mention-id=\"META 20260220 600.0 CALL\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"META\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/META%2020260220%20600.0%20CALL\">$META 20260220 600.0 CALL$</a> ，下调了行权价。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c93409e9e6ec4e5ce128dd5685669489\" tg-width=\"2482\" tg-height=\"150\"></p><p> <a data-mention-id=\"HOOD\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"Robinhood\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HOOD\">$Robinhood(HOOD)$</a> </p><p>HOOD本周财报，波动率很高，多头和空头都有。</p><p>常规看涨价差是sell160 <a data-mention-id=\"HOOD 20251107 160.0 CALL\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"HOOD\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/HOOD%2020251107%20160.0%20CALL\">$HOOD 20251107 160.0 CALL$</a> ，对冲buy175call <a data-mention-id=\"HOOD 20251107 175.0 CALL\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"HOOD\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/HOOD%2020251107%20175.0%20CALL\">$HOOD 20251107 175.0 CALL$</a> </p><p>双买选择买入155call <a data-mention-id=\"HOOD 20251107 155.0 CALL\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"HOOD\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/HOOD%2020251107%20155.0%20CALL\">$HOOD 20251107 155.0 CALL$</a> 和135put <a data-mention-id=\"HOOD 20251107 135.0 PUT\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"HOOD\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/HOOD%2020251107%20135.0%20PUT\">$HOOD 20251107 135.0 PUT$</a> ，对冲sell put120<a data-mention-id=\"HOOD 20251107 120.0 PUT\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"HOOD\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/HOOD%2020251107%20120.0%20PUT\">$HOOD 20251107 120.0 PUT$</a> </p><p>此外还有买入140put做空 <a data-mention-id=\"HOOD 20251219 140.0 PUT\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"HOOD\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/HOOD%2020251219%20140.0%20PUT\">$HOOD 20251219 140.0 PUT$</a> ，当然从盘前情况来看140put已经获利了。</p></body></html>","text":"$纳指100ETF(QQQ)$ 下午有这么一条消息，说特朗普的小儿子于11月3日买入了2万多手QQQ的570put $QQQ 20251231 570.0 PUT$ ，价值约1090万美元。 这笔交易清晰的记录在行情图上，因为极度价外期权交易需求不大，所以很确定那一根成交量柱子就是巴伦干的。 回调570是个什么概念，市场整体大约回调10%。 对于巴伦这笔交易的原因，大家有很多猜测。此前市场有一些传言，说巴伦有一个炒股群，入门门槛是100万美元。此前也有过一些战绩，但均配合特朗普政策进行交易。 也就是说，巴伦操作常常匹配政策出货，那么推断这次看空可能也是一样的情况。问题就在这儿，从这次谈判来看特朗普变得很务实，不太像能继续喊口号做空的样子。那这次做空判断来自哪里就很有意思了。 有意思的是10月31日周五QQQ的期权开仓，可以看到有目标指向570的做空。一个是单腿买入看跌 $QQQ 20260116 560.0 PUT$ 。 另一个是比率看跌价差买入640put $QQQ 20260320 640.0 CALL$ 卖出3倍570put对冲 $QQQ 20260320 570.0 PUT$ 。这个策略充分说明看空者并不预期会跌到570。 那么目标价是哪里呢，看跌最大开仓是12月到期600put $QQQ 20251219 600.0 PUT$ ，开仓3万手，大约是5%回调，也就是回调到本次谈判前市场的位置。 另外有意思的是，同日大空头michael burry提前两周披露三季13f持仓，如图，做空 $Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$ 和 $英伟达(NVDA)$ 。前者空头仓位达到9.12亿，后者仓位达到1.86亿。 我画了重点，提前两周公布，那么合理推断是两周后就跌完了，不过一般来说美股跌起来也很快就是了。 如果是两周跌完，考虑一下时间可以算在11月底前完成回调，那么比较极限的期权到期日选择在12月合适。 重点是近期PLTR和NVDA真有12月到期的看跌期权开仓： nvda是12月到期200put $NVDA 20251219 200.0 PUT$ ，近期密集开仓，1.9万手未平仓中有1.3万手是近期开仓。 PLTR是12月到期180put $PLTR 20251219 180.0 PUT$ ，如图也是近期密集开仓，1.7万手未平仓中有1.3万手未平仓是近期开仓。 我猜这两张期权可能属于空单的一部分，不是全部，不过可以从近期期权一窥做空目标价，可能大空头的目标也是回到谈判前的价位。 所以总体来看本次回调，spy回到665，当然不排除恐慌助攻进一步回调至650。其他股票回调位置大概相似。总之就是我之前说的，没有回调空间，创造回调空间。 $美国超微公司(AMD)$ 我之前认为AMD财报应该会反应平平，但目前来看会领先回调。 周一开仓了两个本周看跌期权230put $AMD 20251107 230.0 PUT$ 和240put $AMD 20251107 240.0 PUT$ ，都是单腿看跌，分别开仓1.24万手和1.16万手，成交额约250万和约500万，这个数量级的末日开仓，已经不必做做多的打算了。 $英伟达(NVDA)$ NVDA要说看跌期权有什么异常的话，就是本周到期看跌开仓前排数量过多，有种向下逼空即视感。 考虑跟随大盘可能回调180，但感觉概率比较低。180也是比较安全的价位了。 $特斯拉(TSLA)$ long call roll仓，从11月415call $TSLA 20251121 415.0 CALL$ roll到明年1月470call $TSLA 20260116 470.0 CALL$ $亚马逊(AMZN)$ long call roll仓，从11月210call $AMZN 20251121 210.0 CALL$ roll到明年2月到期220call $AMZN 20260220 220.0 CALL$ ，需要注意低于股价，机构非常保守，预期不高。 $Meta Platforms, Inc.(META)$ meta财报后进行了一次roll仓，从700 $META 20251121 700.0 CALL$ roll到640 $META 20260116 640.0 CALL$ 不过大盘情况突然恶化导致再次roll仓，从1月到期640 $META 20260116 640.0 CALL$roll到2月到期600 $META 20260220 600.0 CALL$ ，下调了行权价。 $Robinhood(HOOD)$ HOOD本周财报，波动率很高，多头和空头都有。 常规看涨价差是sell160 $HOOD 20251107 160.0 CALL$ ，对冲buy175call $HOOD 20251107 175.0 CALL$ 双买选择买入155call $HOOD 20251107 155.0 CALL$ 和135put $HOOD 20251107 135.0 PUT$ ，对冲sell put120$HOOD 20251107 120.0 PUT$ 此外还有买入140put做空 $HOOD 20251219 140.0 PUT$ ，当然从盘前情况来看140put已经获利了。","highlighted":1,"essential":2,"paper":2,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/496665273475336","repostId":0,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"commentLimit":10,"symbols":["NVDA","META","QQQ","HOOD","AMZN","TSLA","AMD","PLTR","META 20251121 700.0 CALL","QQQ 20260320 570.0 PUT","HOOD 20251107 160.0 CALL","QQQ 20260116 560.0 PUT","PLTR 20251219 180.0 PUT","AMD 20251107 230.0 PUT","AMZN 20260220 220.0 CALL","AMD 20251107 240.0 PUT","HOOD 20251107 175.0 CALL","TSLA 20260116 470.0 CALL","META 20260116 640.0 CALL","HOOD 20251219 140.0 PUT","TSLA 20251121 415.0 CALL","QQQ 20251231 570.0 PUT","META 20260220 600.0 CALL","NVDA 20251219 200.0 PUT","AMZN 20251121 210.0 CALL","HOOD 20251107 155.0 CALL","HOOD 20251107 120.0 PUT","QQQ 20251219 600.0 PUT","QQQ 20260320 640.0 CALL","HOOD 20251107 135.0 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