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谷歌云的高增长才开始！大摩：保守算，明年增速也可能超过50%

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19:29","market":"nz","language":"zh","title":"谷歌云的高增长才开始！大摩：保守算，明年增速也可能超过50%","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2581824064","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"大摩认为，通过对谷歌云收入结构的拆解，即“积压订单”和“即时需求”两部分业务的协同增长。即便在相对保守的假设下，谷歌云在2026年的营收增长率极有可能超过50%。云业务的持续超预期表现，将成为驱动公司估值倍数扩张和AI驱动下股价跑赢大盘的关键催化剂。","content":"<html><body><p>大摩认为，通过对<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">谷歌</a>云收入结构的拆解，即便在相对保守的假设下，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOGL\">谷歌</a>云在2026年的营收增长率极有可能超过50%，这一预测比市场普遍预期高出约15%。</p>\n<p>据追风交易台消息，大摩在11月5日的报告中表示，市场的普遍共识可能严重低估了谷歌云（Google Cloud）的增长潜力。</p>\n<p>通过对谷歌云收入结构的拆解，即“积压订单”（Backlog）和“即时需求”（On-demand）两部分业务的协同增长。大摩认为，即便在相对保守的假设下，谷歌云在2026年的营收增长率极有可能超过50%。云业务的持续超预期表现，将成为驱动公司估值倍数扩张和AI驱动下股价跑赢大盘的关键催化剂。</p>\n<h2>通往50%增长之路</h2>\n<p>大摩将谷歌云的增长动力分解为两部分：已签约但尚未确认为收入的积压订单（Backlog），以及客户即时使用的非积压订单/即时需求（On-demand）。</p>\n<p>历史数据显示，积压订单一直占谷歌云收入的45-50%左右，其余部分由按需业务驱动。<strong>这意味着谷歌云的按需业务在2023年和2024年分别实现了29%和37%的同比增长，2025年至今增速约为25%。</strong></p>\n<p>大摩的敏感性分析表明，<strong>只要2026年净新增积压订单达到约500亿美元以上（远低于2025年预计的1060亿美元），同时按需业务保持15%以上增长，谷歌云收入增速就能突破50%。即便按需业务维持25%的同比增长，新增积压订单仅为200亿美元，也能实现50%以上的收入增速。</strong><strong><img src=\"https://wpimg-wscn.awtmt.com/7c33f563-1b60-4554-aa9b-96c958ec8a37.png\"/></strong></p>\n<p>具体来看，<strong>每额外增加200亿美元的2026年净积压订单增长，就能为谷歌云收入增速带来约340个基点的额外提升。</strong>同样，按需业务收入增速每提高10个百分点，就能为整体谷歌云收入增速贡献约5个百分点。</p>\n<p>大摩的分析显示，如果2026年实现50%以上的增长，谷歌云收入将比大摩当前预期高出4%以上，比市场一致预期高出15%以上。<strong>在最乐观情境下（新增积压订单1000亿美元，按需业务增长25%），2026年谷歌云收入增速可达64%。</strong></p>\n<h2>AI时代的战略价值</h2>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">摩根士丹利</a>强调，谷歌云增长的持续性将成为推动Alphabet估值倍数扩张和AI驱动超额表现的关键驱动力。</p>\n<p>从积压订单构成看，截至2025年第三季度，谷歌云季度末积压订单达1580亿美元，环比第二季度的1080亿美元大幅增加500亿美元，同比增长710亿美元。</p>\n<p>大摩预计第四季度积压订单将进一步增至1990亿美元，全年净新增1060亿美元。进入2026年，尽管新增速度预期放缓，但基数效应和持续的按需业务增长仍将支撑整体收入的强劲增长。</p>\n<p>这一分析凸显了谷歌云在AI时代的战略价值，以及Alphabet通过自研TPU芯片和Gemini模型构建的差异化竞争优势。对投资者而言，谷歌云业务的超预期增长潜力，是支撑Alphabet当前估值和未来上涨空间的重要基石。</p>\n<div>\n<div> </div>\n</div></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>谷歌云的高增长才开始！大摩：保守算，明年增速也可能超过50%</title>\n<style 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href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3758831\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"LU0353189680.USD":"富国美国全盘成长基金Cl A Acc","LU1069347547.HKD":"AB SICAV I - GLOBAL VALUE PORTFOLIO \"AD\" (HKD) INC","LU0476273544.USD":"CT (LUX) I GLOBAL TECHNOLOGY \"BU\" (USD) ACC","LU0203201768.USD":"AB SICAV I - ALL MARKET INCOME PORTFOLIO \"AX\" (USD) INC","LU1720051017.SGD":"Allianz Global Artificial Intelligence AT Acc H2-SGD","LU1917777945.USD":"安联专题基金Cl AT Acc","LU1066051225.USD":"HSBC GIF GLOBAL EQUITY VOLATILITY FOCUSED \"AC\" (USD) ACC","LU0203202063.USD":"AB SICAV I - ALL MARKET INCOME PORTFOLIO \"A2X\" (USD) ACC","LU1670627923.USD":"M&G (LUX) NORTH AMERICAN DIVIDEND \"A\" (USD) ACC","SGXZ99366536.SGD":"United Global Innovation A Acc SGD-H","LU1323610961.USD":"UBS (LUX) EQUITY SICAV - LONG TERM THEMES (USD) \"P\" (USD) ACC","LU1267930490.SGD":"TEMPLETON GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME \"AS\" (SGD) INC 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ACC","LU0251142724.SGD":"Fidelity America A-SGD","LU0251131958.USD":"FIDELITY AMERICA \"A\" (USD) ACC","IE00BZ1G4Q59.USD":"LEGG MASON CLEARBRIDGE US EQUITY SUSTAINABILITY LEADER \"A\"(USD) INC (A)","LU0348723411.USD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL HI-TECH GROWTH \"A\" (USD) INC","LU2023250330.USD":"ALLIANZ INCOME AND GROWTH \"AMG\" (USD) INC","LU0077335932.USD":"FIDELITY AMERICAN GROWTH \"A\" INC"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3758831","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2581824064","content_text":"大摩认为，通过对谷歌云收入结构的拆解，即便在相对保守的假设下，谷歌云在2026年的营收增长率极有可能超过50%，这一预测比市场普遍预期高出约15%。\n据追风交易台消息，大摩在11月5日的报告中表示，市场的普遍共识可能严重低估了谷歌云（Google Cloud）的增长潜力。\n通过对谷歌云收入结构的拆解，即“积压订单”（Backlog）和“即时需求”（On-demand）两部分业务的协同增长。大摩认为，即便在相对保守的假设下，谷歌云在2026年的营收增长率极有可能超过50%。云业务的持续超预期表现，将成为驱动公司估值倍数扩张和AI驱动下股价跑赢大盘的关键催化剂。\n通往50%增长之路\n大摩将谷歌云的增长动力分解为两部分：已签约但尚未确认为收入的积压订单（Backlog），以及客户即时使用的非积压订单/即时需求（On-demand）。\n历史数据显示，积压订单一直占谷歌云收入的45-50%左右，其余部分由按需业务驱动。这意味着谷歌云的按需业务在2023年和2024年分别实现了29%和37%的同比增长，2025年至今增速约为25%。\n大摩的敏感性分析表明，只要2026年净新增积压订单达到约500亿美元以上（远低于2025年预计的1060亿美元），同时按需业务保持15%以上增长，谷歌云收入增速就能突破50%。即便按需业务维持25%的同比增长，新增积压订单仅为200亿美元，也能实现50%以上的收入增速。\n具体来看，每额外增加200亿美元的2026年净积压订单增长，就能为谷歌云收入增速带来约340个基点的额外提升。同样，按需业务收入增速每提高10个百分点，就能为整体谷歌云收入增速贡献约5个百分点。\n大摩的分析显示，如果2026年实现50%以上的增长，谷歌云收入将比大摩当前预期高出4%以上，比市场一致预期高出15%以上。在最乐观情境下（新增积压订单1000亿美元，按需业务增长25%），2026年谷歌云收入增速可达64%。\nAI时代的战略价值\n摩根士丹利强调，谷歌云增长的持续性将成为推动Alphabet估值倍数扩张和AI驱动超额表现的关键驱动力。\n从积压订单构成看，截至2025年第三季度，谷歌云季度末积压订单达1580亿美元，环比第二季度的1080亿美元大幅增加500亿美元，同比增长710亿美元。\n大摩预计第四季度积压订单将进一步增至1990亿美元，全年净新增1060亿美元。进入2026年，尽管新增速度预期放缓，但基数效应和持续的按需业务增长仍将支撑整体收入的强劲增长。\n这一分析凸显了谷歌云在AI时代的战略价值，以及Alphabet通过自研TPU芯片和Gemini模型构建的差异化竞争优势。对投资者而言，谷歌云业务的超预期增长潜力，是支撑Alphabet当前估值和未来上涨空间的重要基石。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"GOOG":1.5,"GOOGL":1.5,"USJW.SI":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":8,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":25,"optionInvolvedFlag":false,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/497347775218112"}