这预测主观性太强，没_老虎社区_美港股上老虎 - 老虎社区

这预测主观性太强，没法量化，就比如说日本衰退，有什么证据表明日本衰退呢？日股创历史新高了再比如美联储提早结束降息，哪里结束了？十二月不是还降息了？2026年华尔街也预测至少降息一次？再再说美股二季度开始大幅调整，二季度都是创历史新高，哪来的调整？

沃什两句话砸崩美股，纳指进调整AI首当其冲？

纳指100今日跌2.04%、纳斯达克跌1.74%正式进入技术性调整。Yahoo称美联储主席沃什（Warsh）的"两个字"直接引爆抛售，道指创一年多来最大单日跌幅；Benzinga更点名"沃什重击AI交易，30分钟内十大输家"多为科技股——英伟达跌3.55%、AMD跌5.51%首当其冲。加息担忧叠加AI泡沫质疑。鹰派转向下，这波AI去杠杆才刚开始吗？

免责声明：上述内容仅代表发帖人个人观点，不构成本平台的任何投资建议。

精彩评论

FrankCollins
2025-12-16
FrankCollins
预测都是打脸，市场永远不按剧本走[笑哭]

发表看法

1

1

{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"detailType":1,"isChannel":false,"data":{"magic":2,"id":511440841339808,"tweetId":"511440841339808","gmtCreate":1765890526219,"gmtModify":1765890529305,"author":{"id":14465583284217,"idStr":"14465583284217","authorId":14465583284217,"authorIdStr":"14465583284217","name":"2ef68a76","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/default-avatar2.jpg","vip":2,"userType":2,"introduction":"专注股票技术分析","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"hat":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d74dcc2cd4f8a347d0fe15c68026c85f","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"currentWearingBadge":{"badgeId":"e50ce593bb40487ebfb542ca54f6a561-4","templateUuid":"e50ce593bb40487ebfb542ca54f6a561","name":"明星虎友","description":"加入老虎社区2000天","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dddf24b906c7011de2617d4fb3f76987","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/53d58ad32c97254c6f74db8b97e6ec49","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6304700d92ad91c7a33e2e92ec32ecc1","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":1,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2021.12.18","individualDisplayEnabled":0},"individualDisplayBadges":[{"badgeId":"3f8f4b8c193b4343a88817ce07587dbd-1","templateUuid":"3f8f4b8c193b4343a88817ce07587dbd","name":"星级创作者","description":"累计发表精华帖>=3（或有料帖>=10），且30天内发表过至少一篇精华帖（或4篇有料帖）并参与过评论","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1866dcf97a73be1c330f85862546aedc","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4f5c5fa8e2c7683bb5a7fce8753ee456","redirectLinkEnabled":1,"redirectLink":"https://www.laohu8.com/activity/market/2023/star-contributors/","hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2026.07.04","individualDisplayEnabled":1,"backgroundColor":{"dark":"#675a37","tint":"#f9ebc2"},"fontColor":{"dark":"#ffffff","tint":"#ab7a0e"}}],"wearingBadges":[{"badgeId":"e50ce593bb40487ebfb542ca54f6a561-4","name":"明星虎友","description":"加入老虎社区2000天","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/53d58ad32c97254c6f74db8b97e6ec49","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dddf24b906c7011de2617d4fb3f76987","isScarce":0,"effectEnabled":0,"redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLinkValidityFrom":0,"redirectLinkValidityTo":9223372036854776000},{"badgeId":"35ec162348d5460f88c959321e554969-3","name":"传说交易员","description":"证券或期货账户累计交易次数达到300次","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/03f10910d4dd9234f9b5702a3342193a","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/656db16598a0b8f21429e10d6c1cb033","isScarce":0,"effectEnabled":0,"redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLinkValidityFrom":0,"redirectLinkValidityTo":9223372036854776000},{"badgeId":"228c86a078844d74991fff2b7ab2428d-3","name":"投资合伙人虎","description":"证券账户累计交易金额达到100万美元","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/436cdf80292b99f0a992e78750ac4e3a","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fbeac6bb240db7da8b972e5183d050ba","isScarce":0,"effectEnabled":0,"redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLinkValidityFrom":0,"redirectLinkValidityTo":9223372036854776000}],"fanSize":2938,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[{"themeId":"cfc6b1c6993d42dc800bf43cf2977999","categoryId":"d316d8bd4a714fab9ea15fd7157c45e7","name":"沃什两句话砸崩美股，纳指进调整AI首当其冲？","type":0,"rnLink":"https://laohu8.com/RN?name=RNTheme&page=/theme/detail&rndata={\"themeId\":cfc6b1c6993d42dc800bf43cf2977999}&rnconfig={\"headerBarHidden\": true}","description":"纳指100今日跌2.04%、纳斯达克跌1.74%正式进入技术性调整。Yahoo称美联储主席沃什（Warsh）的\"两个字\"直接引爆抛售，道指创一年多来最大单日跌幅；Benzinga更点名\"沃什重击AI交易，30分钟内十大输家\"多为科技股——英伟达跌3.55%、AMD跌5.51%首当其冲。加息担忧叠加AI泡沫质疑。鹰派转向下，这波AI去杠杆才刚开始吗？","image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5a2edc590b8e582c283baa633b6fab5f"}],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"title":"","html":"<html><head></head><body>这预测主观性太强，没法量化，就比如说日本衰退，有什么证据表明日本衰退呢？日股创历史新高了再比如美联储提早结束降息，哪里结束了？十二月不是还降息了？2026年华尔街也预测至少降息一次？再再说美股二季度开始大幅调整，二季度都是创历史新高，哪来的调整？</body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body>这预测主观性太强，没法量化，就比如说日本衰退，有什么证据表明日本衰退呢？日股创历史新高了再比如美联储提早结束降息，哪里结束了？十二月不是还降息了？2026年华尔街也预测至少降息一次？再再说美股二季度开始大幅调整，二季度都是创历史新高，哪来的调整？</body></html>","text":"这预测主观性太强，没法量化，就比如说日本衰退，有什么证据表明日本衰退呢？日股创历史新高了再比如美联储提早结束降息，哪里结束了？十二月不是还降息了？2026年华尔街也预测至少降息一次？再再说美股二季度开始大幅调整，二季度都是创历史新高，哪来的调整？","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/511440841339808","repostId":0,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3281,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":["HK0000934320.USD"],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":231,"optionInvolvedFlag":false,"subscribersOnly":false,"subscribersOnlyAccessible":false,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[{"id":511449607279416,"commentId":"511449607279416","gmtCreate":1765892658198,"gmtModify":1765941377838,"authorId":9000000000000143,"author":{"id":9000000000000143,"idStr":"9000000000000143","authorId":9000000000000143,"name":"FrankCollins","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a281838218cd814d59c1e600e0b9f75f","vip":8,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"wearingBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":511440841339808,"objectIdStr":"511440841339808","type":1,"supId":0,"supIdStr":"0","prevId":0,"prevIdStr":"0","content":"预测都是打脸，市场永远不按剧本走[笑哭]","text":"预测都是打脸，市场永远不按剧本走[笑哭]","html":"预测都是打脸，市场永远不按剧本走[笑哭]","likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"subComments":[],"verified":10,"allocateAmount":0,"commentType":"valid","coins":0,"score":0,"disclaimerType":0}],"isCommentEnd":false,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/511440841339808"}