钞能力8888
2025-12-27
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甲骨文单季度暴跌30%，分析师：“如果不调整与OpenAI的协议，甲骨文可能无法履约”
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Davidson分析师12月12日在客户报告中写道：考虑到甲骨文目前勉强维持投资级评级，如果不调整与OpenAI的协议，我们担心甲骨文可能无法履行这些义务。截至9月30日，该机构持有价值2500万美元的甲骨文股份。他认为，如果甲骨文兑现对OpenAI的承诺，行业认知可能会改善。","content":"<html><body><article><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ORCL\">甲骨文</a>股价四季度或创互联网泡沫以来最大跌幅。尽管获得OpenAI超3000亿美元订单，但激进扩张计划引发担忧.。分析师警告其投资级评级岌岌可危，且过度依赖OpenAI单一客户存在风险。但部分投资者仍看好创始人埃里森的长期愿景。</p><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20251227121419912v152v7uqsdqnf1b\"/><p>数据库软件巨头甲骨文正经历二十多年来最严重的季度下跌。</p><p>第四季度甲骨文股价已重挫30%，若未来四个交易日无重大反转，或将创下自2001年互联网泡沫破裂以来的最大季度跌幅，彼时股价下跌近34%。</p><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20251227121422995v152mnaed0tevtt\"/><p>今年9月，OpenAI承诺向甲骨文支付超过3000亿美元，这笔交易曾被视为对甲骨文云业务的重大背书。但本月早些时候，甲骨文公布的季度收入和<span>自由现金流</span>均低于预期，加剧了市场担忧。</p><p>甲骨文2026财年第二财季业绩不及预期，资本开支比预期多约150亿美元。此外，甲骨文还计划签订2480亿美元的租赁协议以提升云计算能力。</p><p>激进扩张引发了信用风险担忧。D.A. Davidson分析师12月12日在客户报告中写道：</p><p>考虑到甲骨文目前勉强维持投资级评级，如果不调整与OpenAI的协议，我们担心甲骨文可能无法履行这些义务。</p><p><strong>OpenAI协议带来的狂热与回落</strong></p><p>新任首席执行官Clay Magouyrk和Mike Sicilia三个月前刚刚接任，上任时正值市场对甲骨文空前乐观。</p><p>就在他们从Safra Catz手中接过权杖前约两周，甲骨文公布了359%的收入储备增长，主要来自OpenAI的承诺。</p><p><strong>9月10日有关OpenAI协议的报道发布后，甲骨文股价飙升近36%，创下自1986年IPO以来第三大单日涨幅，盘中触及345.72美元的历史高点。</strong></p><p>对于一家未能进入Gartner 2024年全球前五大云基础设施提供商榜单的公司而言，这笔交易意义重大。</p><p>然而乐观情绪迅速消散，因为市场发现甲骨文的增长野心需要大量举债支撑。</p><p>9月，该公司通过发行180亿美元债券完成科技行业有史以来规模最大的债务融资之一。Kehring在财报会议上承诺维持投资级评级，但部分投资者并不买账，推高了甲骨文信用违约掉期的价格。</p><p>除了500亿美元资本支出外，甲骨文还计划签订2480亿美元的租赁协议以扩大云容量。</p><p>这种扩张速度远超行业常规，而甲骨文在云基础设施市场仍远远落后于<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">亚马逊</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">微软</a>和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">谷歌</a>，甚至未能进入Gartner 2024年按营收排名的前五大云基础设施提供商榜单。</p><p><strong>增长与盈利的艰难权衡</strong></p><p>今年10月，Sicilia、Magouyrk和Kehring描绘了一幅高速增长蓝图。</p><p>到2030财年营收将从2025财年的570亿美元跃升至2250亿美元，增长主要来自以<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">英伟达</a>GPU为核心的AI基础设施业务。</p><p><strong>但这种\"超高速增长\"将以牺牲盈利能力为代价。</strong></p><p>2021财年，甲骨文毛利率高达77%，但FactSet调查的分析师预计到2030年将降至约49%。</p><p>未来五年累计负自由现金流将达约340亿美元，直到2029年才会转正。分析认为这种利润率下滑反映了高<span>毛利</span>软件业务向低毛利基础设施业务的转型阵痛。</p><p>佛罗里达州Suncoast Equity Management董事总经理Eric Lynch表示，作为投资者很难对甲骨文的计划感到放心。他说：</p><p>四五年时间太长了，这不符合我们的投资纪律。</p><p><strong>过度依赖单一客户的风险</strong></p><p>Lynch还担心甲骨文对OpenAI的严重依赖。</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EOD\">Wells Fargo</a>分析师Michael Turrin估计，到2029年OpenAI可能占甲骨文营收的三分之一以上。但OpenAI自身正快速烧钱，已承诺总计超过1.4万亿美元的AI建设和投资。Lynch质疑道：</p><p>OpenAI的需求会持续存在吗？。</p><p><strong>甲骨文面临的另一挑战是提升市场认可度。</strong></p><p>尽管客户名单包括<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/META\">Meta</a>、Uber和马斯克的xAI，但数据处理巨头Databricks和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SNOW\">Snowflake</a>均未在甲骨文云平台上提供服务。</p><p>Databricks CEO Ali Ghodsi在采访中表示：</p><p>当客户开始敲我的门说'你们需要在甲骨文上运行'时，我们就会这么做。也许快到那一步了，但我们还没听到这种声音。</p><p><strong>长期信仰者仍押注创始人</strong></p><p>并非所有投资者都看空。</p><p>Lountzis Asset Management副总裁Zachary Lountzis表示，其团队自2020年以来一直持有甲骨文股票，当时股价不到60美元。今年第一季度还增持了约3万股。截至9月30日，该机构持有价值2500万美元的甲骨文股份。</p><p>Lountzis说：</p><p>我们认为340美元确实吓人，但我们对短期高估持宽容态度，只要业务经济性没有改变。从340美元跌到180美元实际上是非常健康的修正。</p><p>他的信心很大程度上源于创始人Larry Ellison。据彭博数据，这位1977年创立甲骨文的企业家目前是全球第二富豪。Lountzis说：</p><p>过去50年里，做空Larry会让你破产40次，他能看到未来。</p><p>本月初，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WFC\">富国银行</a>的Turrin给予甲骨文相当于买入的评级和280美元目标价。他认为，如果甲骨文兑现对OpenAI的承诺，行业认知可能会改善。</p><p>来源：华尔街见闻</p></article></body></html>","source":"tencent","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>甲骨文单季度暴跌30%，分析师：“如果不调整与OpenAI的协议，甲骨文可能无法履约”</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n甲骨文单季度暴跌30%，分析师：“如果不调整与OpenAI的协议，甲骨文可能无法履约”\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2025-12-27 11:10 北京时间 <a href=http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20251227121753a47de044&s=b><strong>invest wallstreet</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>甲骨文股价四季度或创互联网泡沫以来最大跌幅。尽管获得OpenAI超3000亿美元订单，但激进扩张计划引发担忧.。分析师警告其投资级评级岌岌可危，且过度依赖OpenAI单一客户存在风险。但部分投资者仍看好创始人埃里森的长期愿景。数据库软件巨头甲骨文正经历二十多年来最严重的季度下跌。第四季度甲骨文股价已重挫30%，若未来四个交易日无重大反转，或将创下自2001年互联网泡沫破裂以来的最大季度跌幅，彼时...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20251227121753a47de044&s=b\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BK4538":"云计算","LU1852331112.SGD":"Blackrock World Technology Fund A2 SGD-H","LU0289960550.SGD":"AB FCP I - GLOBAL EQUITY BLEND PORTFOLIO 'A' (SGD) ACC","LU0648001328.SGD":"Natixis Harris Associates US Equity RA SGD","IE0004445239.USD":"JANUS HENDERSON US FORTY \"A2\" (USD) ACC","LU2108987350.USD":"UBS (LUX) EQUITY SICAV GLOBAL OPPORTUNITY SUSTAINABLE (USD) \"P\" (USD) ACC","LU1989772923.USD":"CPR Invest - Climate Action A2 Acc USD-H","LU1366333091.USD":"FIDELITY GLOBAL FOCUS \"A\" (USD) 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Davidson分析师12月12日在客户报告中写道：考虑到甲骨文目前勉强维持投资级评级，如果不调整与OpenAI的协议，我们担心甲骨文可能无法履行这些义务。OpenAI协议带来的狂热与回落新任首席执行官Clay Magouyrk和Mike Sicilia三个月前刚刚接任，上任时正值市场对甲骨文空前乐观。就在他们从Safra Catz手中接过权杖前约两周，甲骨文公布了359%的收入储备增长，主要来自OpenAI的承诺。9月10日有关OpenAI协议的报道发布后，甲骨文股价飙升近36%，创下自1986年IPO以来第三大单日涨幅，盘中触及345.72美元的历史高点。对于一家未能进入Gartner 2024年全球前五大云基础设施提供商榜单的公司而言，这笔交易意义重大。然而乐观情绪迅速消散，因为市场发现甲骨文的增长野心需要大量举债支撑。9月，该公司通过发行180亿美元债券完成科技行业有史以来规模最大的债务融资之一。Kehring在财报会议上承诺维持投资级评级，但部分投资者并不买账，推高了甲骨文信用违约掉期的价格。除了500亿美元资本支出外，甲骨文还计划签订2480亿美元的租赁协议以扩大云容量。这种扩张速度远超行业常规，而甲骨文在云基础设施市场仍远远落后于亚马逊、微软和谷歌，甚至未能进入Gartner 2024年按营收排名的前五大云基础设施提供商榜单。增长与盈利的艰难权衡今年10月，Sicilia、Magouyrk和Kehring描绘了一幅高速增长蓝图。到2030财年营收将从2025财年的570亿美元跃升至2250亿美元，增长主要来自以英伟达GPU为核心的AI基础设施业务。但这种\"超高速增长\"将以牺牲盈利能力为代价。2021财年，甲骨文毛利率高达77%，但FactSet调查的分析师预计到2030年将降至约49%。未来五年累计负自由现金流将达约340亿美元，直到2029年才会转正。分析认为这种利润率下滑反映了高毛利软件业务向低毛利基础设施业务的转型阵痛。佛罗里达州Suncoast Equity Management董事总经理Eric Lynch表示，作为投资者很难对甲骨文的计划感到放心。他说：四五年时间太长了，这不符合我们的投资纪律。过度依赖单一客户的风险Lynch还担心甲骨文对OpenAI的严重依赖。Wells Fargo分析师Michael Turrin估计，到2029年OpenAI可能占甲骨文营收的三分之一以上。但OpenAI自身正快速烧钱，已承诺总计超过1.4万亿美元的AI建设和投资。Lynch质疑道：OpenAI的需求会持续存在吗？。甲骨文面临的另一挑战是提升市场认可度。尽管客户名单包括Meta、Uber和马斯克的xAI，但数据处理巨头Databricks和Snowflake均未在甲骨文云平台上提供服务。Databricks CEO Ali Ghodsi在采访中表示：当客户开始敲我的门说'你们需要在甲骨文上运行'时，我们就会这么做。也许快到那一步了，但我们还没听到这种声音。长期信仰者仍押注创始人并非所有投资者都看空。Lountzis Asset Management副总裁Zachary Lountzis表示，其团队自2020年以来一直持有甲骨文股票，当时股价不到60美元。今年第一季度还增持了约3万股。截至9月30日，该机构持有价值2500万美元的甲骨文股份。Lountzis说：我们认为340美元确实吓人，但我们对短期高估持宽容态度，只要业务经济性没有改变。从340美元跌到180美元实际上是非常健康的修正。他的信心很大程度上源于创始人Larry Ellison。据彭博数据，这位1977年创立甲骨文的企业家目前是全球第二富豪。Lountzis说：过去50年里，做空Larry会让你破产40次，他能看到未来。本月初，富国银行的Turrin给予甲骨文相当于买入的评级和280美元目标价。他认为，如果甲骨文兑现对OpenAI的承诺，行业认知可能会改善。来源：华尔街见闻","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"ORCL":1.98}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":385,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":27,"optionInvolvedFlag":false,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/515233589256752"}
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