钞能力8888的个人主页 - 老虎社区

钞能力8888

钞能力8888

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08-07 06:59

多晶硅

08-06

泡沫🫧论不绝于耳

08-06

存储

08-06

闪迪绩后大跌📉。

08-05

短期未能盈利

08-04

预演

08-03

诺和诺德

07-29

预计营收

07-28

从Fomo 转Joni

07-28

复盘4

07-28

空头目前浮赢

07-25

AI

07-23

寻求

07-23

利润越来越薄 AI故事越来越贵

07-22

抛压

07-22

调整

07-20

Al信用风险

07-20

中软

07-15

对冲

07-13

新增期权

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style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2026-03-18 12:37</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>3月18日，阿里云官网发布公告：因全球AI需求爆发、供应链涨价，阿里云AI算力、存储等产品最高涨价34％。</p><p>其中，平头哥真武810E等算力卡产品上涨5%-34%，文件存储产品CPFS（智算版）上涨30%。</p><p>据知情人士透露，此轮涨价另一个重要原因是“Token调用量暴涨”。</p><p>阿里云的MaaS业务百炼在今年1-3月创下了历史最高增速。阿里云正在将紧缺的AI算力资源向Token业务倾斜。</p><p>周三，阿里巴巴美股盘前涨约3%。</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2af93a8c99a9a2e1b7f3934f19ced392\" tg-width=\"540\" tg-height=\"165\"/></p><p></p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ca2161e8ddb469de4171b1fb09459c6b","relate_stocks":{"09988":"阿里巴巴-W","BABA":"阿里巴巴"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1152543437","content_text":"3月18日，阿里云官网发布公告：因全球AI需求爆发、供应链涨价，阿里云AI算力、存储等产品最高涨价34％。其中，平头哥真武810E等算力卡产品上涨5%-34%，文件存储产品CPFS（智算版）上涨30%。据知情人士透露，此轮涨价另一个重要原因是“Token调用量暴涨”。阿里云的MaaS业务百炼在今年1-3月创下了历史最高增速。阿里云正在将紧缺的AI算力资源向Token业务倾斜。周三，阿里巴巴美股盘前涨约3%。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"BABA":2,"09988":2}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1705,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":543819652190584,"gmtCreate":1773793963869,"gmtModify":1773793966175,"author":{"id":"3560382599811193","authorId":"3560382599811193","name":"钞能力8888","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1b5bb9f989d900381679c454f99c1351","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3560382599811193","authorIdStr":"3560382599811193"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","listText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","text":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/543819652190584","repostId":"2620404403","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2620404403","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1773787620,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/2620404403?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-03-18 06:47","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"美股成交额TOP 20 | 存储概念股延续强势！西部数据涨超9%、美光科技涨超4%，股价均创历史新高；礼来大跌近6%，硕迪生物实验性减肥药公布积极数据","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2620404403","media":"环球市场播报","summary":"周二美股成交额第1名英伟达收跌0.70%，成交325.37亿美元。英伟达首席执行官黄仁勋阐明了其AI系统设计方法。他表示，英伟达计划在即将推出的平台中，继续使用基于铜缆的连接方式以及更新的光学技术。　　这一决定表明，英伟达并未急于全面转向光学网络。　　第2名美光收高4.50%，成交192.53亿美元。　　报道称，贾西周二对员工表示，他认为未来10年AWS的销售额可能增至6000亿美元，而他此前估计这个数字更接近3000亿美元。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>周二美股成交额第1名<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">英伟达</a>收跌0.70%，成交325.37亿美元。英伟达首席执行官黄仁勋阐明了其AI系统设计方法。他表示，英伟达计划在即将推出的平台（包括Vera Rubin Ultra和未来的系统）中，继续使用基于铜缆的连接方式以及更新的光学技术。</p><p>这一决定表明，英伟达并未急于全面转向光学网络。相反，该公司似乎正在平衡两种选择，在铜缆技术仍然高效且经过验证的地方继续使用它，尤其是在当前的数据中心设置中。</p><p>分析师指出，虽然光通信技术正在进步，但随着基础设施和供应链的跟进，大规模部署可能需要时间。</p><p>英伟达也指出了光学网络的持续改进，包括更好的性能和可靠性，但表示随着AI需求的增长，铜缆和光通信设计将继续并行发展。</p><p>第2名<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MU\">美光科技</a>收高4.5%，成交192.53亿美元。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MU\">美光科技</a>成为本轮美股科技股调整以来，首个创下历史新高的主要科技股票。其他存储股也表现亮眼。</p><p>加拿大皇家银行资本市场发表研报，将美光科技目标价从425美元上调至525美元，同时维持“跑赢大盘”评级，理由是看好存储芯片的超级周期。</p><p>以Srini Pajjuri为首的分析师团队表示：“鉴于存储芯片价格持续走强，我们大幅上调盈利预期。当前核心问题是这一周期的持续时间——我们基准判断是，价格涨势将贯穿2026年。尽管DDR价格最终可能回落，但HBM的定价优势及单机搭载量提升（Rubin Ultra芯片HBM搭载量提升约3.5倍）有望形成持续利好，支撑行情延续至2027年。”</p><p>分析师进一步指出：“值得注意的是，在本轮超级周期中，结构性驱动因素（包括数据中心对HBM、DDR及企业级SSD的旺盛需求）正扮演着愈发关键的角色。随着周期可持续性逐渐明朗，我们预计估值倍数存在进一步扩张空间。”</p><p>第3名<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>收高0.94%，成交185.23亿美元。特斯拉已与LG新能源签署了一项价值43亿美元的协议，在密歇根州兰辛市建设一座磷酸铁锂电池工厂。生产计划于2027年开始。</p><p>美国政府宣布，该工厂将生产方形磷酸铁锂电池电芯，以支持特斯拉在休斯顿制造的Megapack 3能源存储设备。此项努力是美国扩大本土电池生产、减少对中国制造电池依赖的更大计划的一部分。</p><p>此前有报道称，由于关税和外国供应链问题，特斯拉正在寻找其他供应商。LG新能源是为数不多的在美国生产磷酸铁锂电池的公司之一，将为特斯拉提供数年供应。</p><p>第6名<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SNDK\">闪迪</a>收高2.35%，成交102.01亿美元。周二美股芯片存储板块普涨。</p><p>第7名<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">亚马逊</a>收高1.63%，成交95.89亿美元。据报道，亚马逊CEO安迪·贾西在内部会议上表示，他预计人工智能将帮助亚马逊网络服务（AWS）的销售额翻倍，远超此前的预估。</p><p>报道称，贾西周二对员工表示，他认为未来10年AWS的销售额可能增至6000亿美元，而他此前估计这个数字更接近3000亿美元。</p><p>第10名<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NBIS\">Nebius</a>收跌10.41%，成交65.93亿美元。该股今日面临压力。此次下跌似乎主要是由与公司最新融资相关的稀释担忧所驱动。此前，该公司宣布计划通过可转换债券发行筹资37.5亿美元，此举旨在支持其AI数据中心基础设施的建设。</p><p>可转换债券最终可能转换为股权，这会增加稀释风险，并往往在短期内影响市场情绪。这一时机给市场反应增添了另一层因素，因为此次融资紧随Nebius新宣布的与<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/META\">Meta</a>的多年协议所推动的强劲上涨之后。在如此急剧的上涨之后，一些投资者似乎开始退一步，重新评估估值和为未来增长融资的成本。</p><p>尽管出现回调，但跻身华尔街分析师前4%的D.A． Davidson分析师亚历山大·普拉特仍持建设性看法，并将与Meta的协议视为对Nebius在AI基础设施竞赛中定位的重要验证。</p><p>第14名<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LLY\">礼来</a>收跌5.94%，成交52.6亿美元。消息面上，硕迪生物此前公布其实验性减肥药aleniglipron积极结果。数据显示，患者在服用44周后，体重减轻了约15%。BMO资本市场分析师Evan Seigerman指出，该药物的疗效“看起来极具竞争力”，甚至可能优于<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVO\">诺和诺德</a>和礼来的同类口服药。硕迪生物计划在2026年下半年启动后期研究，采用“低量且缓慢”的剂量滴定法以预防胃肠道副作用。</p><p>第18名<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WDC\">西部数据</a>收高9.64%，成交42.25亿美元。</p><p>第19名<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/INTC\">英特尔</a>收跌3.72%，成交39.35亿美元。此次下跌是在市场高度关注英伟达展示的下一代GPU系统和扩展的AI基础设施计划之后发生的。</p><p>在大会上，英伟达概述了其最新的硬件路线图，包括Vera Rubin架构和更新的基于Blackwell的系统，旨在提升AI推理性能。该公司还重点介绍了新的专注于推理的芯片，并预计AI基础设施的长期需求强劲，这强化了以GPU为中心的平台将继续成为数据中心部署核心的预期。</p><p>英特尔也一直在强调其采用x86处理器的AI推理能力，并在集成系统中与英伟达合作。然而，市场参与者正逐渐意识到，由于其更宏大的路线图和不断发展的生态系统，英伟达可能在不久的将来颠覆半导体行业的竞争格局。</p></body></html>","source":"sina","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>美股成交额TOP 20 | 存储概念股延续强势！西部数据涨超9%、美光科技涨超4%，股价均创历史新高；礼来大跌近6%，硕迪生物实验性减肥药公布积极数据</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n美股成交额TOP 20 | 存储概念股延续强势！西部数据涨超9%、美光科技涨超4%，股价均创历史新高；礼来大跌近6%，硕迪生物实验性减肥药公布积极数据\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2026-03-18 06:47 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/2026-03-18/doc-inhrivfh3634454.shtml><strong>环球市场播报</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>周二美股成交额第1名英伟达收跌0.70%，成交325.37亿美元。英伟达首席执行官黄仁勋阐明了其AI系统设计方法。他表示，英伟达计划在即将推出的平台（包括Vera Rubin Ultra和未来的系统）中，继续使用基于铜缆的连接方式以及更新的光学技术。这一决定表明，英伟达并未急于全面转向光学网络。相反，该公司似乎正在平衡两种选择，在铜缆技术仍然高效且经过验证的地方继续使用它，尤其是在当前的数据中心...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/2026-03-18/doc-inhrivfh3634454.shtml\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5d1fe578ee46cbe0d24c33435ff25ae5","relate_stocks":{"LLY":"礼来","WDC":"西部数据","MU":"美光科技"},"source_url":"https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/2026-03-18/doc-inhrivfh3634454.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/b0d1b7e8843deea78cc308b15114de44","article_id":"2620404403","content_text":"周二美股成交额第1名英伟达收跌0.70%，成交325.37亿美元。英伟达首席执行官黄仁勋阐明了其AI系统设计方法。他表示，英伟达计划在即将推出的平台（包括Vera Rubin Ultra和未来的系统）中，继续使用基于铜缆的连接方式以及更新的光学技术。这一决定表明，英伟达并未急于全面转向光学网络。相反，该公司似乎正在平衡两种选择，在铜缆技术仍然高效且经过验证的地方继续使用它，尤其是在当前的数据中心设置中。分析师指出，虽然光通信技术正在进步，但随着基础设施和供应链的跟进，大规模部署可能需要时间。英伟达也指出了光学网络的持续改进，包括更好的性能和可靠性，但表示随着AI需求的增长，铜缆和光通信设计将继续并行发展。第2名美光科技收高4.5%，成交192.53亿美元。美光科技成为本轮美股科技股调整以来，首个创下历史新高的主要科技股票。其他存储股也表现亮眼。加拿大皇家银行资本市场发表研报，将美光科技目标价从425美元上调至525美元，同时维持“跑赢大盘”评级，理由是看好存储芯片的超级周期。以Srini Pajjuri为首的分析师团队表示：“鉴于存储芯片价格持续走强，我们大幅上调盈利预期。当前核心问题是这一周期的持续时间——我们基准判断是，价格涨势将贯穿2026年。尽管DDR价格最终可能回落，但HBM的定价优势及单机搭载量提升（Rubin Ultra芯片HBM搭载量提升约3.5倍）有望形成持续利好，支撑行情延续至2027年。”分析师进一步指出：“值得注意的是，在本轮超级周期中，结构性驱动因素（包括数据中心对HBM、DDR及企业级SSD的旺盛需求）正扮演着愈发关键的角色。随着周期可持续性逐渐明朗，我们预计估值倍数存在进一步扩张空间。”第3名特斯拉收高0.94%，成交185.23亿美元。特斯拉已与LG新能源签署了一项价值43亿美元的协议，在密歇根州兰辛市建设一座磷酸铁锂电池工厂。生产计划于2027年开始。美国政府宣布，该工厂将生产方形磷酸铁锂电池电芯，以支持特斯拉在休斯顿制造的Megapack 3能源存储设备。此项努力是美国扩大本土电池生产、减少对中国制造电池依赖的更大计划的一部分。此前有报道称，由于关税和外国供应链问题，特斯拉正在寻找其他供应商。LG新能源是为数不多的在美国生产磷酸铁锂电池的公司之一，将为特斯拉提供数年供应。第6名闪迪收高2.35%，成交102.01亿美元。周二美股芯片存储板块普涨。第7名亚马逊收高1.63%，成交95.89亿美元。据报道，亚马逊CEO安迪·贾西在内部会议上表示，他预计人工智能将帮助亚马逊网络服务（AWS）的销售额翻倍，远超此前的预估。报道称，贾西周二对员工表示，他认为未来10年AWS的销售额可能增至6000亿美元，而他此前估计这个数字更接近3000亿美元。第10名Nebius收跌10.41%，成交65.93亿美元。该股今日面临压力。此次下跌似乎主要是由与公司最新融资相关的稀释担忧所驱动。此前，该公司宣布计划通过可转换债券发行筹资37.5亿美元，此举旨在支持其AI数据中心基础设施的建设。可转换债券最终可能转换为股权，这会增加稀释风险，并往往在短期内影响市场情绪。这一时机给市场反应增添了另一层因素，因为此次融资紧随Nebius新宣布的与Meta的多年协议所推动的强劲上涨之后。在如此急剧的上涨之后，一些投资者似乎开始退一步，重新评估估值和为未来增长融资的成本。尽管出现回调，但跻身华尔街分析师前4%的D.A． Davidson分析师亚历山大·普拉特仍持建设性看法，并将与Meta的协议视为对Nebius在AI基础设施竞赛中定位的重要验证。第14名礼来收跌5.94%，成交52.6亿美元。消息面上，硕迪生物此前公布其实验性减肥药aleniglipron积极结果。数据显示，患者在服用44周后，体重减轻了约15%。BMO资本市场分析师Evan Seigerman指出，该药物的疗效“看起来极具竞争力”，甚至可能优于诺和诺德和礼来的同类口服药。硕迪生物计划在2026年下半年启动后期研究，采用“低量且缓慢”的剂量滴定法以预防胃肠道副作用。第18名西部数据收高9.64%，成交42.25亿美元。第19名英特尔收跌3.72%，成交39.35亿美元。此次下跌是在市场高度关注英伟达展示的下一代GPU系统和扩展的AI基础设施计划之后发生的。在大会上，英伟达概述了其最新的硬件路线图，包括Vera Rubin架构和更新的基于Blackwell的系统，旨在提升AI推理性能。该公司还重点介绍了新的专注于推理的芯片，并预计AI基础设施的长期需求强劲，这强化了以GPU为中心的平台将继续成为数据中心部署核心的预期。英特尔也一直在强调其采用x86处理器的AI推理能力，并在集成系统中与英伟达合作。然而，市场参与者正逐渐意识到，由于其更宏大的路线图和不断发展的生态系统，英伟达可能在不久的将来颠覆半导体行业的竞争格局。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"MU":2,"LLY":2,"WDC":2}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1960,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":543492040032280,"gmtCreate":1773663424106,"gmtModify":1773663426310,"author":{"id":"3560382599811193","authorId":"3560382599811193","name":"钞能力8888","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1b5bb9f989d900381679c454f99c1351","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3560382599811193","authorIdStr":"3560382599811193"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","listText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","text":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/543492040032280","repostId":"1175134882","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1175134882","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1773403919,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1175134882?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-03-13 20:11","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"高盛全面看多“三桶油”：接下来会有一波“估值向全球看齐”的重估行情","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1175134882","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"高盛认为，中国海洋石油和中国石油过去三年展现出的强劲现金流创造能力，叠加自由现金流收益率领先，有望推动其估值向全球同行收敛。报告将中国海洋石油的12个月目标价由21.10港元大幅上调至31.00港元，涨幅达47%，目标价隐含的折价收窄至6%。中国海洋石油在2025年初已将2025至2027年的最低年度股息派息比例从40%上调至45%，股东回报承诺进一步强化。","content":"<html><head></head><body><blockquote><p>长期油价有支撑，需求没那么快见顶，油气巨头或迎价值重估。高盛指出，凭强劲现金流与超10%的自由现金流收益率，中国海油与中国石油正打破严重估值折价现状。中国海洋石油成本优势全球领先，目标价大幅上调47%；中石油借绿电替代与AI数字化持续降本，目标价上调33%。</p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: left;\">中国三大油气巨头的估值折价，正在被现金流与成本曲线的变化重新定价。高盛认为，<strong>中国海洋石油和中国石油过去三年展现出的强劲现金流创造能力，叠加自由现金流收益率领先，有望推动其估值向全球同行收敛。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">据追风交易台，高盛分析师Amber Cai在2026年3月12日发布的报告中指出，中国海洋石油和中国石油在资本回报率排名中已跻身全球同业前列，但当前估值倍数与同业的差距依然显著。<strong>过去十年中国海洋石油相对E&amp;P（勘探开采）同业平均折价约42%。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">报告将中国海洋石油的12个月目标价由21.10港元大幅上调至31.00港元，涨幅达47%，<strong>目标价隐含的折价收窄至6%。</strong>中国石油H股目标价由8.60港元上调至11.50港元，A股目标价由11.80元人民币上调至15.30元人民币。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">与此同时，高盛维持对中国石化的中性评级，并将其H股目标价由3.60港元上调至4.90港元、A股目标价由4.80元上调至6.70元，但上调逻辑主要源于估值基准年前移，而非基本面改善（化工产品市场供过于求的压力，令其盈利能力弱于上游）。</p><h2 id=\"id_1703095637\" style=\"text-align: left;\">中国海洋石油：全球成本曲线最优梯队，估值重估空间最大</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">高盛认为，中国海洋石油是此轮上调中逻辑最为清晰、弹性最为突出的标的。报告指出，<strong>中国海洋石油的平均布伦特盈亏平衡油价约为30美元/桶，未来的产量扩张也将主要由成本同样处于低端的中国近海及圭亚那项目驱动。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">在现金流层面，高盛预计中国海洋石油的FCF盈亏平衡油价低至27美元/桶，股息盈亏平衡油价约为48美元/桶，预计其2027年FCF收益率和股息收益率分别约为11%和5%。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">中国海洋石油在2025年初已将2025至2027年的最低年度股息派息比例从40%上调至45%，<strong>股东回报承诺进一步强化。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">高盛将中国海洋石油目标倍数从3.0倍大幅上调至4.6倍（对应2014至2026年历史均值上方0.5个标准差），<strong>新目标价隐含的EV/DACF倍数仍较同业折让6%，高盛预计这一折价将随估值收敛进程逐步收窄。</strong></p><h2 id=\"id_3164096049\" style=\"text-align: left;\">中国石油：绿电替代与AI降本打开长期盈亏平衡下移空间</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">高盛对中国石油的看多逻辑聚焦于成本持续下降的可见路径。报告指出，中国石油目前处于油气生产成本曲线的较高端，其2025年布伦特盈亏平衡油价约为62美元/桶，但成本节约举措有望在<strong>2035年前将该数字压降至54美元/桶。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>其一为绿电自供。</strong>中国石油的油气田分布与中国可再生能源资源带高度重叠，通过以自发绿电（约0.3元/度）替代外购电网电力（约0.6至0.7元/度），高盛估算可在2035年前贡献约5美元/桶的盈亏平衡降本。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>其二为AI与数字化举措。</strong>中国石油自2021年起加速推进数字化智能化战略，目标是在2035年前全面建成&#34;数智中国石油&#34;，高盛参考国际能源署数字技术可削减10%至20%生产成本的测算上限，保守估计可贡献另外5美元/桶的降本潜力。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">在现金流方面，高盛预计中国石油 2027年FCF收益率约为10%、股息收益率约为5%，在基准资本支出和股息覆盖口径下，盈亏平衡油价可低于50美元/桶。中国石油H股当前股价较新目标价尚有约8%的上行空间，A股潜在涨幅约为18%。</p><h2 id=\"id_2400736939\" style=\"text-align: left;\">中国石化：化工产能过剩压制自由现金流，维持中性</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">相较于另外两家，高盛对中国石化的态度明显更为审慎。报告指出，中国石化在高油价环境下的盈利弹性存在明显天花板：</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>EBITDA在布伦特油价升至90美元/桶前随油价同步上行，但一旦超过该水平，国内成品油定价政策压缩炼油利润的效应将开始超过上游和库存收益的贡献，EBITDA面临下行压力。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">此外，中国石化较高比例的海运原油进口敞口，使其对国际运费和原油官方销售价格的上涨更为敏感，而中国成品油定价公式并不反映这部分额外成本，进一步压缩炼油利润空间。</p><h2 id=\"id_1525463762\" style=\"text-align: left;\">估值折价与全球同业比较：重估行情的核心依据</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">从全球横向比较来看，中国海洋石油和中国石油的估值折价尤为突出。高盛数据显示，<strong>以2027年预测FCF收益率衡量，中国海洋石油约为11%、中国石油约为10%，均位居全球同业前列。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>而以EV/GCI（企业价值/已投入资本总额）衡量，中国海洋石油为0.54倍、中国石油仅为0.38倍，远低于全球综合油气公司壳牌（0.56倍）、道达尔（0.52倍）以及埃克森美孚（1.12倍）等同业水平。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">高盛的分析显示，中国海洋石油和中国石油的资本回报率已跻身全球同业前列，但当前估值倍数与同业仍有显著差距。过去十年中国海洋石油相对E&amp;P（勘探开采）同业平均折价约42%，其目标价隐含的折价收窄至6%。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">高盛基准假设采用2026至2027年布伦特油价70美元/桶，但其商品团队认为风险整体偏向上行，并已于2026年3月8日上调海外气价预测，其中JKM现货价格2026年预测上调幅度达42%，这对中国石油的上游天然气盈利形成额外支撑。</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1762389672944","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>高盛全面看多“三桶油”：接下来会有一波“估值向全球看齐”的重估行情</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; 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width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n高盛全面看多“三桶油”：接下来会有一波“估值向全球看齐”的重估行情\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2026-03-13 20:11 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3767459><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>长期油价有支撑，需求没那么快见顶，油气巨头或迎价值重估。高盛指出，凭强劲现金流与超10%的自由现金流收益率，中国海油与中国石油正打破严重估值折价现状。中国海洋石油成本优势全球领先，目标价大幅上调47%；中石油借绿电替代与AI数字化持续降本，目标价上调33%。中国三大油气巨头的估值折价，正在被现金流与成本曲线的变化重新定价。高盛认为，中国海洋石油和中国石油过去三年展现出的强劲现金流创造能力，叠加自由...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3767459\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5f64df078da3c1b434d96ddb00e489ed","relate_stocks":{"00883":"中国海洋石油","00857":"中国石油股份"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3767459","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1175134882","content_text":"长期油价有支撑，需求没那么快见顶，油气巨头或迎价值重估。高盛指出，凭强劲现金流与超10%的自由现金流收益率，中国海油与中国石油正打破严重估值折价现状。中国海洋石油成本优势全球领先，目标价大幅上调47%；中石油借绿电替代与AI数字化持续降本，目标价上调33%。中国三大油气巨头的估值折价，正在被现金流与成本曲线的变化重新定价。高盛认为，中国海洋石油和中国石油过去三年展现出的强劲现金流创造能力，叠加自由现金流收益率领先，有望推动其估值向全球同行收敛。据追风交易台，高盛分析师Amber Cai在2026年3月12日发布的报告中指出，中国海洋石油和中国石油在资本回报率排名中已跻身全球同业前列，但当前估值倍数与同业的差距依然显著。过去十年中国海洋石油相对E&P（勘探开采）同业平均折价约42%。报告将中国海洋石油的12个月目标价由21.10港元大幅上调至31.00港元，涨幅达47%，目标价隐含的折价收窄至6%。中国石油H股目标价由8.60港元上调至11.50港元，A股目标价由11.80元人民币上调至15.30元人民币。与此同时，高盛维持对中国石化的中性评级，并将其H股目标价由3.60港元上调至4.90港元、A股目标价由4.80元上调至6.70元，但上调逻辑主要源于估值基准年前移，而非基本面改善（化工产品市场供过于求的压力，令其盈利能力弱于上游）。中国海洋石油：全球成本曲线最优梯队，估值重估空间最大高盛认为，中国海洋石油是此轮上调中逻辑最为清晰、弹性最为突出的标的。报告指出，中国海洋石油的平均布伦特盈亏平衡油价约为30美元/桶，未来的产量扩张也将主要由成本同样处于低端的中国近海及圭亚那项目驱动。在现金流层面，高盛预计中国海洋石油的FCF盈亏平衡油价低至27美元/桶，股息盈亏平衡油价约为48美元/桶，预计其2027年FCF收益率和股息收益率分别约为11%和5%。中国海洋石油在2025年初已将2025至2027年的最低年度股息派息比例从40%上调至45%，股东回报承诺进一步强化。高盛将中国海洋石油目标倍数从3.0倍大幅上调至4.6倍（对应2014至2026年历史均值上方0.5个标准差），新目标价隐含的EV/DACF倍数仍较同业折让6%，高盛预计这一折价将随估值收敛进程逐步收窄。中国石油：绿电替代与AI降本打开长期盈亏平衡下移空间高盛对中国石油的看多逻辑聚焦于成本持续下降的可见路径。报告指出，中国石油目前处于油气生产成本曲线的较高端，其2025年布伦特盈亏平衡油价约为62美元/桶，但成本节约举措有望在2035年前将该数字压降至54美元/桶。其一为绿电自供。中国石油的油气田分布与中国可再生能源资源带高度重叠，通过以自发绿电（约0.3元/度）替代外购电网电力（约0.6至0.7元/度），高盛估算可在2035年前贡献约5美元/桶的盈亏平衡降本。其二为AI与数字化举措。中国石油自2021年起加速推进数字化智能化战略，目标是在2035年前全面建成\"数智中国石油\"，高盛参考国际能源署数字技术可削减10%至20%生产成本的测算上限，保守估计可贡献另外5美元/桶的降本潜力。在现金流方面，高盛预计中国石油 2027年FCF收益率约为10%、股息收益率约为5%，在基准资本支出和股息覆盖口径下，盈亏平衡油价可低于50美元/桶。中国石油H股当前股价较新目标价尚有约8%的上行空间，A股潜在涨幅约为18%。中国石化：化工产能过剩压制自由现金流，维持中性相较于另外两家，高盛对中国石化的态度明显更为审慎。报告指出，中国石化在高油价环境下的盈利弹性存在明显天花板：EBITDA在布伦特油价升至90美元/桶前随油价同步上行，但一旦超过该水平，国内成品油定价政策压缩炼油利润的效应将开始超过上游和库存收益的贡献，EBITDA面临下行压力。此外，中国石化较高比例的海运原油进口敞口，使其对国际运费和原油官方销售价格的上涨更为敏感，而中国成品油定价公式并不反映这部分额外成本，进一步压缩炼油利润空间。估值折价与全球同业比较：重估行情的核心依据从全球横向比较来看，中国海洋石油和中国石油的估值折价尤为突出。高盛数据显示，以2027年预测FCF收益率衡量，中国海洋石油约为11%、中国石油约为10%，均位居全球同业前列。而以EV/GCI（企业价值/已投入资本总额）衡量，中国海洋石油为0.54倍、中国石油仅为0.38倍，远低于全球综合油气公司壳牌（0.56倍）、道达尔（0.52倍）以及埃克森美孚（1.12倍）等同业水平。高盛的分析显示，中国海洋石油和中国石油的资本回报率已跻身全球同业前列，但当前估值倍数与同业仍有显著差距。过去十年中国海洋石油相对E&P（勘探开采）同业平均折价约42%，其目标价隐含的折价收窄至6%。高盛基准假设采用2026至2027年布伦特油价70美元/桶，但其商品团队认为风险整体偏向上行，并已于2026年3月8日上调海外气价预测，其中JKM现货价格2026年预测上调幅度达42%，这对中国石油的上游天然气盈利形成额外支撑。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"00857":2,"00883":2}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1946,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":531107864731696,"gmtCreate":1770685975029,"gmtModify":1770685977737,"author":{"id":"3560382599811193","authorId":"3560382599811193","name":"钞能力8888","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1b5bb9f989d900381679c454f99c1351","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3560382599811193","authorIdStr":"3560382599811193"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"最近各大国家指数都要见短高了吗？","listText":"最近各大国家指数都要见短高了吗？","text":"最近各大国家指数都要见短高了吗？","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/531107864731696","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3117,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}