揭谛投资
01-06
这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看
@期权小班长：
Q1:：别折腾
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<a data-mention-id=\"GOOGL\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"谷歌A\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOGL\">$谷歌A(GOOGL)$</a> </p><p>近两个月是震荡行情，对于这种行情的操作很难说清楚，但看了下面这个大单大家可能就懂了：</p><p>sell put 310 <a data-mention-id=\"GOOGL 20260220 310.0 PUT\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"GOOGL\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/GOOGL%2020260220%20310.0%20PUT\">$GOOGL 20260220 310.0 PUT$</a> ，开仓9684手</p><p>sell put 310 <a data-mention-id=\"GOOGL 20260206 310.0 PUT\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"GOOGL\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/GOOGL%2020260206%20310.0%20PUT\">$GOOGL 20260206 310.0 PUT$</a> ，开仓1万手</p><p>意思就是别折腾，跌了sell put，高了别追涨。如果是不小心高位sell put了，不要着急割肉，可以先想想要不要接盘，可能接盘后股价也就反弹了。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a61528ada0e182fab7fd04fa8448dbcb\" tg-width=\"2612\" tg-height=\"214\"></p><p> <a data-mention-id=\"NVDA\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"英伟达\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">$英伟达(NVDA)$</a> </p><p>机构的看涨价差策略主要做空区间是192.5～197.5 <a data-mention-id=\"NVDA 20260109 192.5 CALL\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"NVDA\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/NVDA%2020260109%20192.5%20CALL\">$NVDA 20260109 192.5 CALL$</a> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/NVDA 20260109 197.5 CALL\">$NVDA 20260109 197.5 CALL$ </a> ，预计本周还是很难突破192.5。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/545bda8ae08054e57717ca765af893d1\" tg-width=\"1040\" tg-height=\"1054\"></p><p>如果明天老黄讲完话，英伟达还是没办法突破193，那1月份月权到期前股价很难突破190了，因为16号到期190call未平仓有9.9万手；但是如果突破了，可能直接涨到200。</p><p>本周比较稳的策略是sell put 180<a data-mention-id=\"NVDA 20260109 180.0 PUT\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"NVDA\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/NVDA%2020260109%20180.0%20PUT\">$NVDA 20260109 180.0 PUT$</a> </p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bf4243328e8bdf17edd31f16ce6cc44f\" tg-width=\"1044\" tg-height=\"1026\"></p><p> <a data-mention-id=\"KWEB\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"中国海外互联网ETF-KraneShares\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/KWEB\">$中国海外互联网ETF-KraneShares(KWEB)$</a> </p><p>预计中概股，尤其是科技股在1～2月份会维持一个比较强势的状态，很适合做sell put。</p><p>看涨期权开仓放量显著，机构roll了3月到期36的call改成买入1月30日到期36call <a data-mention-id=\"KWEB 20260130 36.0 CALL\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"KWEB\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/KWEB%2020260130%2036.0%20CALL\">$KWEB 20260130 36.0 CALL$</a> 。</p><p>此外还有各种看涨价差，比如buy 37call <a data-mention-id=\"KWEB 20260220 37.0 CALL\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"KWEB\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/KWEB%2020260220%2037.0%20CALL\">$KWEB 20260220 37.0 CALL$</a> ，sell 40call <a data-mention-id=\"KWEB 20260220 40.0 CALL\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"KWEB\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/KWEB%2020260220%2040.0%20CALL\">$KWEB 20260220 40.0 CALL$</a> 。预计1月股价会达到38。</p><p>但需要注意1月16日前突破38很有难度，因为1月16日38call未平仓有16万手。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fb1e1504b6ba22d27953222f934b2a35\" tg-width=\"1040\" tg-height=\"1028\"></p><p> <a data-mention-id=\"SPY\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"标普500ETF\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SPY\">$标普500ETF(SPY)$</a> </p><p>根据整体未平仓数据来看，在1月16号到期前spy很难突破700，下跌很难跌破680。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4c5583babadc63d3e7fd4e011beee175\" tg-width=\"1042\" tg-height=\"1124\"></p><p>不过根据周五开仓数据，看跌期权押注月权到期后回调670。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/297f9e672b9c400027b2cd6148334c6b\" tg-width=\"1046\" tg-height=\"1088\"></p><p> <a data-mention-id=\"TSLA\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"特斯拉\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$</a> </p><p>特斯拉又回到了我们熟悉的440～470的震荡区间中，理论上回调400是最好的抄底价格，这再次发生重大利空或者大盘大幅回调，这两项就近两周情况来看都是小概率事件。周内sell put可以考虑430 <a data-mention-id=\"TSLA 20260109 430.0 PUT\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"TSLA\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/TSLA%2020260109%20430.0%20PUT\">$TSLA 20260109 430.0 PUT$</a> </p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/42731908342e9705d136a31350c2c98f\" tg-width=\"1038\" tg-height=\"1058\"></p><p> <a data-mention-id=\"MU\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"美光科技\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MU\">$美光科技(MU)$</a> </p><p>从期权开仓来看，市场认为美光再度回调300的概率不低。</p><p>看涨大单开仓看涨价差开仓，sell call315 <a data-mention-id=\"MU 20260116 315.0 CALL\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"MU\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/MU%2020260116%20315.0%20CALL\">$MU 20260116 315.0 CALL$</a> buy call330 <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/MU 20260116 330.0 CALL\">$MU 20260116 330.0 CALL$ </a> </p><p>看跌也有价差大单：buy put 280<a data-mention-id=\"MU 20260109 280.0 PUT\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"MU\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/MU%2020260109%20280.0%20PUT\">$MU 20260109 280.0 PUT$</a> ，sell put 270<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/MU 20260109 270.0 PUT\">$MU 20260109 270.0 PUT$ </a> </p><p>我的感觉跟目前存储的走势有点类似白银，fomo资金非常多。比较坚定的做多派可以考虑sell put 300。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/21a70a75b07ea43843b883b1101e1e23\" tg-width=\"1040\" tg-height=\"1090\"></p><p> <a data-mention-id=\"ORCL\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"甲骨文\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ORCL\">$甲骨文(ORCL)$</a> </p><p>写完wbd的套利策略后，我重新认识了一下埃里森家族，进而重新考虑了一下甲骨文的政治地位。</p><p>虽然华尔街各种不看好甲骨文公司，风险提示非常到位，但这是一只打标签的总统概念股，毕竟能参与瓜分tiktok，风险有点过于夸大了。</p><p>目前价格很适合做sell put，根据期权开仓近两周波动区间180～200，可以做sell put180 <a data-mention-id=\"ORCL 20260109 180.0 PUT\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"ORCL\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/ORCL%2020260109%20180.0%20PUT\">$ORCL 20260109 180.0 PUT$</a> ，或者190也行。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cfa2e54ceff069e9624b303c8a0753f4\" tg-width=\"1042\" tg-height=\"1026\"></p><p> <a data-mention-id=\"INTC\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"英特尔\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/INTC\">$英特尔(INTC)$</a> </p><p>我管英特尔叫提款机，但不是我的提款机，我还没这本事，是谁的大家心里都有数。</p><p>最近这波目标明确看到45，周五开仓了45和50的看涨大单 <a data-mention-id=\"INTC 20260320 45.0 CALL\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"INTC\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/INTC%2020260320%2045.0%20CALL\">$INTC 20260320 45.0 CALL$</a> <a data-mention-id=\"INTC 20260320 50.0 CALL\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"INTC\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/INTC%2020260320%2050.0%20CALL\">$INTC 20260320 50.0 CALL$</a> ，我觉得到50的概率比较低，最高大概还是45。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2ce4d8a61915c39434948de9bd4ca104\" tg-width=\"1042\" tg-height=\"710\"></p><p> <a data-mention-id=\"BABA\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"阿里巴巴\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">$阿里巴巴(BABA)$</a> </p><p>结合kweb趋势，阿里很适合sell put145<a data-mention-id=\"BABA 20260109 145.0 PUT\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"BABA\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/BABA%2020260109%20145.0%20PUT\">$BABA 20260109 145.0 PUT$</a> </p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3245a0ad4153b5e39e54500a4efa7055\" tg-width=\"1040\" tg-height=\"930\"></p><p> <a data-mention-id=\"TSM\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"台积电\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSM\">$台积电(TSM)$</a> </p><p>大单sell put 320 <a data-mention-id=\"TSM 20260320 320.0 PUT\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"TSM\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/TSM%2020260320%20320.0%20PUT\">$TSM 20260320 320.0 PUT$</a> ，跟文章开头的谷歌一个意思。虽然分析师鼓吹的天花乱坠，但机构更偏向sell put渡过Q1，选择sell 价内put而不是更激进的买入看涨。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d015590f7465ea2f9f5ba4108e87eb17\" tg-width=\"2610\" tg-height=\"216\"></p></body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body><p> <a data-mention-id=\"GOOGL\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"谷歌A\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOGL\">$谷歌A(GOOGL)$</a> </p><p>近两个月是震荡行情，对于这种行情的操作很难说清楚，但看了下面这个大单大家可能就懂了：</p><p>sell put 310 <a data-mention-id=\"GOOGL 20260220 310.0 PUT\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"GOOGL\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/GOOGL%2020260220%20310.0%20PUT\">$GOOGL 20260220 310.0 PUT$</a> ，开仓9684手</p><p>sell put 310 <a data-mention-id=\"GOOGL 20260206 310.0 PUT\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"GOOGL\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/GOOGL%2020260206%20310.0%20PUT\">$GOOGL 20260206 310.0 PUT$</a> ，开仓1万手</p><p>意思就是别折腾，跌了sell put，高了别追涨。如果是不小心高位sell put了，不要着急割肉，可以先想想要不要接盘，可能接盘后股价也就反弹了。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a61528ada0e182fab7fd04fa8448dbcb\" tg-width=\"2612\" tg-height=\"214\"></p><p> <a data-mention-id=\"NVDA\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"英伟达\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">$英伟达(NVDA)$</a> </p><p>机构的看涨价差策略主要做空区间是192.5～197.5 <a data-mention-id=\"NVDA 20260109 192.5 CALL\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"NVDA\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/NVDA%2020260109%20192.5%20CALL\">$NVDA 20260109 192.5 CALL$</a> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/NVDA 20260109 197.5 CALL\">$NVDA 20260109 197.5 CALL$ </a> ，预计本周还是很难突破192.5。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/545bda8ae08054e57717ca765af893d1\" tg-width=\"1040\" tg-height=\"1054\"></p><p>如果明天老黄讲完话，英伟达还是没办法突破193，那1月份月权到期前股价很难突破190了，因为16号到期190call未平仓有9.9万手；但是如果突破了，可能直接涨到200。</p><p>本周比较稳的策略是sell put 180<a data-mention-id=\"NVDA 20260109 180.0 PUT\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"NVDA\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/NVDA%2020260109%20180.0%20PUT\">$NVDA 20260109 180.0 PUT$</a> </p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bf4243328e8bdf17edd31f16ce6cc44f\" tg-width=\"1044\" tg-height=\"1026\"></p><p> <a data-mention-id=\"KWEB\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"中国海外互联网ETF-KraneShares\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/KWEB\">$中国海外互联网ETF-KraneShares(KWEB)$</a> </p><p>预计中概股，尤其是科技股在1～2月份会维持一个比较强势的状态，很适合做sell put。</p><p>看涨期权开仓放量显著，机构roll了3月到期36的call改成买入1月30日到期36call <a data-mention-id=\"KWEB 20260130 36.0 CALL\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"KWEB\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/KWEB%2020260130%2036.0%20CALL\">$KWEB 20260130 36.0 CALL$</a> 。</p><p>此外还有各种看涨价差，比如buy 37call <a data-mention-id=\"KWEB 20260220 37.0 CALL\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"KWEB\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/KWEB%2020260220%2037.0%20CALL\">$KWEB 20260220 37.0 CALL$</a> ，sell 40call <a data-mention-id=\"KWEB 20260220 40.0 CALL\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"KWEB\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/KWEB%2020260220%2040.0%20CALL\">$KWEB 20260220 40.0 CALL$</a> 。预计1月股价会达到38。</p><p>但需要注意1月16日前突破38很有难度，因为1月16日38call未平仓有16万手。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fb1e1504b6ba22d27953222f934b2a35\" tg-width=\"1040\" tg-height=\"1028\"></p><p> <a data-mention-id=\"SPY\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"标普500ETF\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SPY\">$标普500ETF(SPY)$</a> </p><p>根据整体未平仓数据来看，在1月16号到期前spy很难突破700，下跌很难跌破680。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4c5583babadc63d3e7fd4e011beee175\" tg-width=\"1042\" tg-height=\"1124\"></p><p>不过根据周五开仓数据，看跌期权押注月权到期后回调670。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/297f9e672b9c400027b2cd6148334c6b\" tg-width=\"1046\" tg-height=\"1088\"></p><p> <a data-mention-id=\"TSLA\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"特斯拉\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$</a> </p><p>特斯拉又回到了我们熟悉的440～470的震荡区间中，理论上回调400是最好的抄底价格，这再次发生重大利空或者大盘大幅回调，这两项就近两周情况来看都是小概率事件。周内sell put可以考虑430 <a data-mention-id=\"TSLA 20260109 430.0 PUT\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"TSLA\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/TSLA%2020260109%20430.0%20PUT\">$TSLA 20260109 430.0 PUT$</a> </p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/42731908342e9705d136a31350c2c98f\" tg-width=\"1038\" tg-height=\"1058\"></p><p> <a data-mention-id=\"MU\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"美光科技\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MU\">$美光科技(MU)$</a> </p><p>从期权开仓来看，市场认为美光再度回调300的概率不低。</p><p>看涨大单开仓看涨价差开仓，sell call315 <a data-mention-id=\"MU 20260116 315.0 CALL\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"MU\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/MU%2020260116%20315.0%20CALL\">$MU 20260116 315.0 CALL$</a> buy call330 <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/MU 20260116 330.0 CALL\">$MU 20260116 330.0 CALL$ </a> </p><p>看跌也有价差大单：buy put 280<a data-mention-id=\"MU 20260109 280.0 PUT\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"MU\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/MU%2020260109%20280.0%20PUT\">$MU 20260109 280.0 PUT$</a> ，sell put 270<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/MU 20260109 270.0 PUT\">$MU 20260109 270.0 PUT$ </a> </p><p>我的感觉跟目前存储的走势有点类似白银，fomo资金非常多。比较坚定的做多派可以考虑sell put 300。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/21a70a75b07ea43843b883b1101e1e23\" tg-width=\"1040\" tg-height=\"1090\"></p><p> <a data-mention-id=\"ORCL\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"甲骨文\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ORCL\">$甲骨文(ORCL)$</a> </p><p>写完wbd的套利策略后，我重新认识了一下埃里森家族，进而重新考虑了一下甲骨文的政治地位。</p><p>虽然华尔街各种不看好甲骨文公司，风险提示非常到位，但这是一只打标签的总统概念股，毕竟能参与瓜分tiktok，风险有点过于夸大了。</p><p>目前价格很适合做sell put，根据期权开仓近两周波动区间180～200，可以做sell put180 <a data-mention-id=\"ORCL 20260109 180.0 PUT\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"ORCL\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/ORCL%2020260109%20180.0%20PUT\">$ORCL 20260109 180.0 PUT$</a> ，或者190也行。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cfa2e54ceff069e9624b303c8a0753f4\" tg-width=\"1042\" tg-height=\"1026\"></p><p> <a data-mention-id=\"INTC\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"英特尔\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/INTC\">$英特尔(INTC)$</a> </p><p>我管英特尔叫提款机，但不是我的提款机，我还没这本事，是谁的大家心里都有数。</p><p>最近这波目标明确看到45，周五开仓了45和50的看涨大单 <a data-mention-id=\"INTC 20260320 45.0 CALL\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"INTC\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/INTC%2020260320%2045.0%20CALL\">$INTC 20260320 45.0 CALL$</a> <a data-mention-id=\"INTC 20260320 50.0 CALL\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"INTC\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/INTC%2020260320%2050.0%20CALL\">$INTC 20260320 50.0 CALL$</a> ，我觉得到50的概率比较低，最高大概还是45。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2ce4d8a61915c39434948de9bd4ca104\" tg-width=\"1042\" tg-height=\"710\"></p><p> <a data-mention-id=\"BABA\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"阿里巴巴\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">$阿里巴巴(BABA)$</a> </p><p>结合kweb趋势，阿里很适合sell put145<a data-mention-id=\"BABA 20260109 145.0 PUT\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"BABA\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/BABA%2020260109%20145.0%20PUT\">$BABA 20260109 145.0 PUT$</a> </p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3245a0ad4153b5e39e54500a4efa7055\" tg-width=\"1040\" tg-height=\"930\"></p><p> <a data-mention-id=\"TSM\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"台积电\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSM\">$台积电(TSM)$</a> </p><p>大单sell put 320 <a data-mention-id=\"TSM 20260320 320.0 PUT\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"TSM\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/TSM%2020260320%20320.0%20PUT\">$TSM 20260320 320.0 PUT$</a> ，跟文章开头的谷歌一个意思。虽然分析师鼓吹的天花乱坠，但机构更偏向sell put渡过Q1，选择sell 价内put而不是更激进的买入看涨。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d015590f7465ea2f9f5ba4108e87eb17\" tg-width=\"2610\" tg-height=\"216\"></p></body></html>","text":"$谷歌A(GOOGL)$ 近两个月是震荡行情，对于这种行情的操作很难说清楚，但看了下面这个大单大家可能就懂了： sell put 310 $GOOGL 20260220 310.0 PUT$ ，开仓9684手 sell put 310 $GOOGL 20260206 310.0 PUT$ ，开仓1万手 意思就是别折腾，跌了sell put，高了别追涨。如果是不小心高位sell put了，不要着急割肉，可以先想想要不要接盘，可能接盘后股价也就反弹了。 $英伟达(NVDA)$ 机构的看涨价差策略主要做空区间是192.5～197.5 $NVDA 20260109 192.5 CALL$ $NVDA 20260109 197.5 CALL$ ，预计本周还是很难突破192.5。 如果明天老黄讲完话，英伟达还是没办法突破193，那1月份月权到期前股价很难突破190了，因为16号到期190call未平仓有9.9万手；但是如果突破了，可能直接涨到200。 本周比较稳的策略是sell put 180$NVDA 20260109 180.0 PUT$ $中国海外互联网ETF-KraneShares(KWEB)$ 预计中概股，尤其是科技股在1～2月份会维持一个比较强势的状态，很适合做sell put。 看涨期权开仓放量显著，机构roll了3月到期36的call改成买入1月30日到期36call $KWEB 20260130 36.0 CALL$ 。 此外还有各种看涨价差，比如buy 37call $KWEB 20260220 37.0 CALL$ ，sell 40call $KWEB 20260220 40.0 CALL$ 。预计1月股价会达到38。 但需要注意1月16日前突破38很有难度，因为1月16日38call未平仓有16万手。 $标普500ETF(SPY)$ 根据整体未平仓数据来看，在1月16号到期前spy很难突破700，下跌很难跌破680。 不过根据周五开仓数据，看跌期权押注月权到期后回调670。 $特斯拉(TSLA)$ 特斯拉又回到了我们熟悉的440～470的震荡区间中，理论上回调400是最好的抄底价格，这再次发生重大利空或者大盘大幅回调，这两项就近两周情况来看都是小概率事件。周内sell put可以考虑430 $TSLA 20260109 430.0 PUT$ $美光科技(MU)$ 从期权开仓来看，市场认为美光再度回调300的概率不低。 看涨大单开仓看涨价差开仓，sell call315 $MU 20260116 315.0 CALL$ buy call330 $MU 20260116 330.0 CALL$ 看跌也有价差大单：buy put 280$MU 20260109 280.0 PUT$ ，sell put 270$MU 20260109 270.0 PUT$ 我的感觉跟目前存储的走势有点类似白银，fomo资金非常多。比较坚定的做多派可以考虑sell put 300。 $甲骨文(ORCL)$ 写完wbd的套利策略后，我重新认识了一下埃里森家族，进而重新考虑了一下甲骨文的政治地位。 虽然华尔街各种不看好甲骨文公司，风险提示非常到位，但这是一只打标签的总统概念股，毕竟能参与瓜分tiktok，风险有点过于夸大了。 目前价格很适合做sell put，根据期权开仓近两周波动区间180～200，可以做sell put180 $ORCL 20260109 180.0 PUT$ ，或者190也行。 $英特尔(INTC)$ 我管英特尔叫提款机，但不是我的提款机，我还没这本事，是谁的大家心里都有数。 最近这波目标明确看到45，周五开仓了45和50的看涨大单 $INTC 20260320 45.0 CALL$ $INTC 20260320 50.0 CALL$ ，我觉得到50的概率比较低，最高大概还是45。 $阿里巴巴(BABA)$ 结合kweb趋势，阿里很适合sell put145$BABA 20260109 145.0 PUT$ $台积电(TSM)$ 大单sell put 320 $TSM 20260320 320.0 PUT$ ，跟文章开头的谷歌一个意思。虽然分析师鼓吹的天花乱坠，但机构更偏向sell put渡过Q1，选择sell 价内put而不是更激进的买入看涨。","highlighted":1,"essential":2,"paper":2,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/518555054363096","repostId":0,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"commentLimit":10,"symbols":["NVDA","BABA","MU","KWEB","TSM","ORCL","INTC","GOOGL","TSLA","SPY","TSM 20260320 320.0 PUT","KWEB 20260130 36.0 CALL","INTC 20260320 45.0 CALL","GOOGL 20260220 310.0 PUT","INTC 20260320 50.0 CALL","KWEB 20260220 37.0 CALL","GOOGL 20260206 310.0 PUT","MU 20260116 315.0 CALL","KWEB 20260220 40.0 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