荷马先生
02-04
$亚马逊(AMZN)$
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财报前瞻 | 亚马逊(AMZN.US)Q4业绩料“再度炸裂”，分析师目标价看涨近30%
亚马逊2025年第四季度财报预期及分析师目标价上涨近30%
亚马逊预计2025年第四季度每股收益同比增长31%，总收入达2113亿美元，AWS收入预计增长22%-23%，AI需求成为业绩重要推动力。分析师Nova Capital预计亚马逊业绩强劲，未来12个月股价有超过28%的上涨潜力，认为公司估值较低，业务增长前景良好。
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Capital预计亚马逊业绩强劲，未来12个月股价有超过28%的上涨潜力，认为公司估值较低，业务增长前景良好。"}],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"title":"","html":"<html><head></head><body><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">$亚马逊(AMZN)$ </a> 不可能</p></body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">$亚马逊(AMZN)$ </a> 不可能</p></body></html>","text":"$亚马逊(AMZN)$ 不可能","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/529100069384464","repostId":2608858164,"repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2608858164","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1770015580,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2608858164?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-02-02 14:59","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"财报前瞻 | 亚马逊(AMZN.US)Q4业绩料“再度炸裂”，分析师目标价看涨近30%","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2608858164","media":"智通财经","summary":"智通财经APP获悉，亚马逊将于美东时间2月5日盘后公布第四季度财报，财经分析师Nova Capital称，在财报发布前夕，考虑到未来几年应出现的业务增长水平，亚马逊看起来相当便宜。作为全球最大公司之一，亚马逊增长势头始终不减。在即将发布的财报前，财经分析师Nova Capital将亚马逊评级为“买入”，正如部分分析师所言，将于本周发布的第四季度业绩再次实现“炸裂”表现的概率很高，尽管股价接近历史高点，仍认为该股目前颇具吸引力。","content":"<html><body><p>智通财经APP获悉，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">亚马逊</a>(AMZN.US)将于美东时间2月5日盘后公布第四季度财报，财经分析师Nova Capital称，在财报发布前夕，考虑到未来几年应出现的业务增长水平，亚马逊看起来相当便宜。未来12个月内有超过28%的上涨潜力，并预期第四季度业绩将非常强劲。</p><p>作为全球最大公司之一，亚马逊(AMZN.US)增长势头始终不减。根据数据，公司销售额从2025年的1070亿美元增至过去12个月(TTM)的超过6370亿美元，同期运营收入从约22亿美元增长至约686亿美元。</p><p>值得注意的是，前瞻性预测并未显示这一势头呈现出较为显著的放缓迹象，至少在未来几年内如此，这使得这家巨头的持续扩张水平显得独一无二。</p><p>在即将发布的财报前，财经分析师Nova Capital将亚马逊评级为“买入”，正如部分分析师所言，将于本周发布的第四季度业绩再次实现“炸裂”表现的概率很高，尽管股价接近历史高点，仍认为该股目前颇具吸引力。</p><p>这并非仅凭直觉或对过去几个季度的简单推测。近期动态使得当前市场共识预期显得相当悲观且脆弱，尤其是对于第四季度之后的前景，而公司2026财年的指引应该会很强劲，并将为看涨势头提供良好的催化剂。</p><p>亚马逊于10月下旬公布了第三季度财报。尽管当时市场共识预期高于管理层指引，但公司仍在营收和每股收益(EPS)上双双超出预期，且超出幅度相当可观，分别超出1.35%和25.3%。</p><p>总体而言，这已是连续第11个季度EPS超出预期，尽管25%以上的超预期幅度看起来已很扎实，但这似乎已成为亚马逊的常态，自2022年底以来，最弱的超预期幅度也有16.77%。</p><p>管理层为第四季度设定的营收指引为2060亿至2130亿美元，暗示同比增长率为11.56%。根据数据，10月下旬的市场共识预期约为2079.5亿美元，更接近指引区间的下限。</p><p>因此，鉴于亚马逊通常给出保守指引的倾向，分析师们迅速更新模型，在最新指引中点基础上加入了各自的溢价。自然地，这个过程也同步影响了EPS预期，这解释了在第三季度财报评论后看到的第四季度盈利修正普遍偏向乐观的现象。</p><p>亚马逊因其2025财年已执行的资本支出计划而脱颖而出，其成功概率极高，且2026财年资本支出应会超过1500亿美元，这在“科技七巨头”中最高。特别是在第四季度，亚马逊将在2027年底前实现总容量翻倍的道路上，再增加一千兆瓦，甚至更多的容量。</p><p>第四季度增加的这一容量，应有助于亚马逊应对上季度评论中提到的、当前AI基础设施需求超过可用供给的AWS售罄环境。随着容量增加，积压订单转化为实际收入的速度应会加快，且AWS收入相对于电商业务，应能保持较高的利润率。</p><p>因此，业务结构向AWS的转移以及现有运营杠杆的支撑似乎将持续存在，这使得业绩在营收和EPS共识预期的高端水平上再次超预期的可能性更大。</p><p>当涉及第四季度之后的产能建设时，EPS增长机会看起来更加清晰，因为他们实质上是在为其利润率最高的业务部门定位，以在未来几年贡献超常的运营收入。Nova Capital称，这也是认为针对2027财年EPS数据的下修过于激进的原因。市场将逐渐意识到，这种负面情绪并未得到亚马逊实际执行情况的支持。</p><p>由此，Nova Capital认为，对自由现金流(FCF)恶化的担忧因此被夸大了，未来的投资回报率(ROIC)将随着产能扩大而通过积压订单货币化实现。一旦市场意识到这一点，股价将向上重估。</p><p><img src=\"https://img.zhitongcaijing.com/image/20260202/1770015751591081.png\" title=\"1770015751591081.png\"/></p><p>另一个可能影响第四季度财报后价格走势的利好因素是管理层最新决定：裁减约10%的公司员工，从高成本劳动力转向AI驱动代理和机器学习模型。</p><p>实际上，他们可以节省FCF支出，并将这些薪资节省重新投入AI基础设施开发。调整后的利润率可能会上升，因此2026-2027财年EPS预期将会上调。</p><p>亚马逊是超大盘股中最便宜的之一。观察超大盘股公司的一年期前瞻市盈率，亚马逊的定价接近或低于该群体平均水平。</p><center><img src=\"https://img.zhitongcaijing.com/image/20260202/1770015479168546.png?x-oss-process=image/format,jpg/quality,q_90\" title=\"1770015479168546.png\"/></center><p>但与列表中的其他公司相比，亚马逊的EPS(从现在起两年内)将实现最高的增长率。</p><center><img src=\"https://img.zhitongcaijing.com/image/20260202/1770015485628457.png?x-oss-process=image/format,jpg/quality,q_90\" title=\"1770015485628457.png\"/></center><p>相对于规模相近的同业，这种增长优势赋予了亚马逊在2027年底前以28-30倍市盈率交易的道义权利。</p><p>公司2023财年和2024财年的年度共识EPS分别超出6.8%和7.46%，因此预计对2026财年共识EPS至少有平均水平的超出，对2027财年共识EPS则再超出5%。</p><p>根据计算，得出2027财年EPS预期：$7.87 * 1.0713 = $8.431131;预测2027财年EPS = $8.431131 * 1.2185 * 1.05 = $10.79</p><p>以29倍市盈率计算，对亚马逊未来12个月的目标价定为每股312.82美元，较当前股价高出28.7%。</p></body></html>","source":"stock_zhitongcaijing","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>财报前瞻 | 亚马逊(AMZN.US)Q4业绩料“再度炸裂”，分析师目标价看涨近30%</title>\n<style 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href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1400489.html\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"LU1868836591.USD":"CT (LUX) I AMERICAN \"1U\"(USD) ACC","LU2756315664.SGD":"ALLIANZ INCOME AND GROWTH \"AMI\" (SGDHDG) INC","LU2264538146.SGD":"Fullerton Lux Funds - Global Absolute Alpha A Acc SGD","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","LU1868836757.USD":"CT (LUX) I AMERICAN FUND \"2\" (USD) ACC","LU0957791311.USD":"THREADNEEDLE (LUX) GLOBAL FOCUS \"ZU\" (USD) ACC","LU0314104364.USD":"MANULIFE GF AMERICAN GROWTH \"AA\" (USD) INC","LU1935043023.USD":"MANULIFE GF GLOBAL MULTI-ASSET DIVERSIFIED INCOME \"AA\" (USD) INC A","LU1316542783.SGD":"Janus Henderson Horizon Global Technology Leaders A2 SGD","BK4535":"淡马锡持仓","BK4538":"云计算","LU0211327993.USD":"TEMPLETON GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0642271901.SGD":"Janus Henderson Horizon Global Technology Leaders A2 SGD-H","IE00B5949003.HKD":"JANUS HENDERSON GLOBAL 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Capital称，在财报发布前夕，考虑到未来几年应出现的业务增长水平，亚马逊看起来相当便宜。未来12个月内有超过28%的上涨潜力，并预期第四季度业绩将非常强劲。作为全球最大公司之一，亚马逊(AMZN.US)增长势头始终不减。根据数据，公司销售额从2025年的1070亿美元增至过去12个月(TTM)的超过6370亿美元，同期运营收入从约22亿美元增长至约686亿美元。值得注意的是，前瞻性预测并未显示这一势头呈现出较为显著的放缓迹象，至少在未来几年内如此，这使得这家巨头的持续扩张水平显得独一无二。在即将发布的财报前，财经分析师Nova Capital将亚马逊评级为“买入”，正如部分分析师所言，将于本周发布的第四季度业绩再次实现“炸裂”表现的概率很高，尽管股价接近历史高点，仍认为该股目前颇具吸引力。这并非仅凭直觉或对过去几个季度的简单推测。近期动态使得当前市场共识预期显得相当悲观且脆弱，尤其是对于第四季度之后的前景，而公司2026财年的指引应该会很强劲，并将为看涨势头提供良好的催化剂。亚马逊于10月下旬公布了第三季度财报。尽管当时市场共识预期高于管理层指引，但公司仍在营收和每股收益(EPS)上双双超出预期，且超出幅度相当可观，分别超出1.35%和25.3%。总体而言，这已是连续第11个季度EPS超出预期，尽管25%以上的超预期幅度看起来已很扎实，但这似乎已成为亚马逊的常态，自2022年底以来，最弱的超预期幅度也有16.77%。管理层为第四季度设定的营收指引为2060亿至2130亿美元，暗示同比增长率为11.56%。根据数据，10月下旬的市场共识预期约为2079.5亿美元，更接近指引区间的下限。因此，鉴于亚马逊通常给出保守指引的倾向，分析师们迅速更新模型，在最新指引中点基础上加入了各自的溢价。自然地，这个过程也同步影响了EPS预期，这解释了在第三季度财报评论后看到的第四季度盈利修正普遍偏向乐观的现象。亚马逊因其2025财年已执行的资本支出计划而脱颖而出，其成功概率极高，且2026财年资本支出应会超过1500亿美元，这在“科技七巨头”中最高。特别是在第四季度，亚马逊将在2027年底前实现总容量翻倍的道路上，再增加一千兆瓦，甚至更多的容量。第四季度增加的这一容量，应有助于亚马逊应对上季度评论中提到的、当前AI基础设施需求超过可用供给的AWS售罄环境。随着容量增加，积压订单转化为实际收入的速度应会加快，且AWS收入相对于电商业务，应能保持较高的利润率。因此，业务结构向AWS的转移以及现有运营杠杆的支撑似乎将持续存在，这使得业绩在营收和EPS共识预期的高端水平上再次超预期的可能性更大。当涉及第四季度之后的产能建设时，EPS增长机会看起来更加清晰，因为他们实质上是在为其利润率最高的业务部门定位，以在未来几年贡献超常的运营收入。Nova Capital称，这也是认为针对2027财年EPS数据的下修过于激进的原因。市场将逐渐意识到，这种负面情绪并未得到亚马逊实际执行情况的支持。由此，Nova Capital认为，对自由现金流(FCF)恶化的担忧因此被夸大了，未来的投资回报率(ROIC)将随着产能扩大而通过积压订单货币化实现。一旦市场意识到这一点，股价将向上重估。另一个可能影响第四季度财报后价格走势的利好因素是管理层最新决定：裁减约10%的公司员工，从高成本劳动力转向AI驱动代理和机器学习模型。实际上，他们可以节省FCF支出，并将这些薪资节省重新投入AI基础设施开发。调整后的利润率可能会上升，因此2026-2027财年EPS预期将会上调。亚马逊是超大盘股中最便宜的之一。观察超大盘股公司的一年期前瞻市盈率，亚马逊的定价接近或低于该群体平均水平。但与列表中的其他公司相比，亚马逊的EPS(从现在起两年内)将实现最高的增长率。相对于规模相近的同业，这种增长优势赋予了亚马逊在2027年底前以28-30倍市盈率交易的道义权利。公司2023财年和2024财年的年度共识EPS分别超出6.8%和7.46%，因此预计对2026财年共识EPS至少有平均水平的超出，对2027财年共识EPS则再超出5%。根据计算，得出2027财年EPS预期：$7.87 * 1.0713 = $8.431131;预测2027财年EPS = $8.431131 * 1.2185 * 1.05 = 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