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甲骨文的最悲观假设：若AI数据中心合同全部终止

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{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"detailType":1,"isChannel":false,"data":{"magic":2,"id":533805148960088,"tweetId":"533805148960088","gmtCreate":1771344520507,"gmtModify":1771344522964,"author":{"id":3548665181418139,"idStr":"3548665181418139","authorId":3548665181418139,"authorIdStr":"3548665181418139","name":"王炸女神","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9a680106e60d4cdced54bd0f61f1cc44","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"fanSize":1208,"starInvestorFlag":true,"fullDisclosureFlag":true,"starInvestorFollowerNum":1174,"starInvestorOrderShareNum":61,"userFollowInvestorFlag":false,"orderNotificationFlag":false,"ror":83.91,"showRor":true,"winRationPercentage":40.983607,"tradeVolumeEst":0},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"title":"","html":"<html><head></head><body><p>这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看</p></body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body><p>这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看</p></body></html>","text":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/533805148960088","repostId":2610980947,"repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2610980947","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"追踪全球财经热点，精选影响您财富的资讯，投资理财必备神器！","home_visible":1,"media_name":"华尔街见闻","id":"1084101182","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e"},"pubTimestamp":1770907251,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2610980947?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-02-12 22:40","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"甲骨文的最悲观假设：若AI数据中心合同全部终止","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2610980947","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"伯恩斯坦极端压力测试显示，即便OpenAI等AI客户完全撤单，甲骨文仅凭核心数据库与企业云业务仍可支撑每股137美元估值，较当前股价下行空间仅15%，安全边际清晰。研报同时拆解市场担忧：2480亿美元租赁合同年度风险敞口仅130亿至165亿美元，硬件采购灵活且资产通用性强。随着近期融资落地，AI寒冬若不现，风险回报比已极具吸引力。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>针对市场对客户集中度与资本开支的持续担忧，伯恩斯坦在最新研报中对<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ORCL\">甲骨文</a>进行极端情景压力测试：若OpenAI等AI客户完全撤单，公司价值几何？</p><p>据追风交易台，研报的模型构建了一个“近乎最坏”的下行假设：自2025财年第四季度以来签约的所有AI合同，包括OpenAI的巨额订单均无法转化为收入，客户既不履约也不续约。与此同时，核心数据库、SaaS及非AI的OCI业务保持正常增长。</p><p>在此极端设定下，伯恩斯坦估算甲骨文估值底线为每股137美元，较当前约160美元的水平仅存在15%的下行空间，为投资者提供了清晰的安全边际。而在乐观情景下，若执行顺利，目标价上看313美元。</p><p>结论呈现极强不对称性。<strong>即便剔除全部AI相关收入，仅凭核心企业级业务，甲骨文仍可支撑稳健估值。</strong>伯恩斯坦认为，<strong>市场对AI客户依赖度与资本支出压力的担忧已被过度定价，当前风险收益比具备吸引力</strong>。</p><h2 id=\"id_1628504604\">2480亿美元租赁负债并非“不可承受之重”</h2><p>伯恩斯坦进一步拆解了市场对甲骨文巨额数据中心租赁合同的担忧。投资者最恐惧的情景是，若客户违约，甲骨文将被迫承担高达2480亿美元的闲置成本。但研报指出，这一风险被显著高估。</p><p>首先，这些租赁合同期限长达15至19年，产能分批上线直至2030财年，<strong>年度最大风险敞口实际仅为130亿至165亿美元，且要到2030年才触及峰值</strong>。其次，<strong>只要全球未陷入“AI寒冬”，数据中心需求仍将维持高位，甲骨文完全有能力将闲置空间自用或转租。</strong></p><p>更重要的是，即便撇开生成式AI，全球IaaS/PaaS市场的潜在规模已达1.2万亿至1.4万亿美元，传统企业云迁移所消耗的数据中心容量足以吸纳这些租赁空间。换言之，<strong>甲骨文的长期合同结构具备充分缓冲垫，市场对其资本承诺的恐慌缺乏实质性支撑。</strong></p><h2 id=\"id_1959266225\">硬件风险可控 不会被GPU库存“套牢”</h2><p>针对市场担忧的硬件资本支出风险，伯恩斯坦指出其实际敞口十分有限。服务器与GPU的采购周期通常在产能上线前3至6个月，若客户取消合同，甲骨文可在交付前灵活取消或推迟订单，且无需承担重大罚金。</p><p><strong>即便硬件已交付，大部分计算资产如存储、网络及内存设备仍具备高度通用性</strong>，可无缝转用于传统SaaS及OCI业务。研报进一步估算，每1美元AI年收入对应约2至2.5美元的计算资产，资产寿命为6年，这意味着即使发生客户违约，最多仅有1至2年的计算支出面临风险。整体而言，<strong>硬件资本支出的沉淀风险被明显高估。</strong></p><h2 id=\"id_3623244935\">核心业务的强劲基本面</h2><p>伯恩斯坦在最新模型中进一步剥离AI业务，清晰勾勒出甲骨文核心业务的独立价值。<strong>即便完全剔除AI数据中心相关收入，仅凭传统数据库、SaaS及OCI业务，公司到2030财年的总收入仍可达1010亿美元。</strong></p><p>更关键的是，在承担为AI基础设施所筹债务（包括近期250亿美元融资）的利息成本后，其每股收益仍有能力实现9.0美元。参照<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">微软</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SAP\">SAP</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CRM\">Salesforce</a>等软件同业27.3倍的市盈率水平，这一盈利预期对应的估值即为每股137美元。换言之，<strong>即便AI业务完全归零，甲骨文仅靠核心业务也能支撑当前股价约85%的安全边际，足见其基础业务的现金生成能力之稳固。</strong></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/8b17158db054fd883feeba7abdb89b02\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"574\"/></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/d75990450c2f8cf8f37d0aa287f191d3\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"578\"/></p><p>伯恩斯坦认为，<strong>当前甲骨文股价已过度计价悲观预期，风险回报比正进入极具吸引力的区间。</strong>随着近期约250亿美元债务及等量股权融资落地，数据中心建设的资金瓶颈已实质性解除。研报强调，只要全球不陷入“AI寒冬”的极端情景，当前估值水平为投资者提供了充分的安全边际与不对称的收益潜力。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE 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}\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n甲骨文的最悲观假设：若AI数据中心合同全部终止\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2026-02-12 22:40 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3765603><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>针对市场对客户集中度与资本开支的持续担忧，伯恩斯坦在最新研报中对甲骨文进行极端情景压力测试：若OpenAI等AI客户完全撤单，公司价值几何？据追风交易台，研报的模型构建了一个“近乎最坏”的下行假设：自2025财年第四季度以来签约的所有AI合同，包括OpenAI的巨额订单均无法转化为收入，客户既不履约也不续约。与此同时，核心数据库、SaaS及非AI的OCI业务保持正常增长。在此极端设定下，伯恩斯坦...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3765603\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2c35c8a27605936ee42c5dc8842ec36a","relate_stocks":{"IE0009356076.USD":"JANUS HENDERSON GLOBAL TECHNOLOGY AND INNOVATION \"A2\" (USD) ACC","LU1803068979.SGD":"FTIF - Franklin Technology A (acc) SGD-H1","LU0353189680.USD":"富国美国全盘成长基金Cl A Acc","LU1069347547.HKD":"AB SICAV I - GLOBAL VALUE PORTFOLIO \"AD\" (HKD) INC","LU0348723411.USD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL HI-TECH GROWTH \"A\" (USD) INC","LU0476273544.USD":"CT (LUX) I GLOBAL TECHNOLOGY \"BU\" (USD) ACC","LU2746668974.SGD":"MANULIFE DYNAMIC LEADERS \"AA\" 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不会被GPU库存“套牢”针对市场担忧的硬件资本支出风险，伯恩斯坦指出其实际敞口十分有限。服务器与GPU的采购周期通常在产能上线前3至6个月，若客户取消合同，甲骨文可在交付前灵活取消或推迟订单，且无需承担重大罚金。即便硬件已交付，大部分计算资产如存储、网络及内存设备仍具备高度通用性，可无缝转用于传统SaaS及OCI业务。研报进一步估算，每1美元AI年收入对应约2至2.5美元的计算资产，资产寿命为6年，这意味着即使发生客户违约，最多仅有1至2年的计算支出面临风险。整体而言，硬件资本支出的沉淀风险被明显高估。核心业务的强劲基本面伯恩斯坦在最新模型中进一步剥离AI业务，清晰勾勒出甲骨文核心业务的独立价值。即便完全剔除AI数据中心相关收入，仅凭传统数据库、SaaS及OCI业务，公司到2030财年的总收入仍可达1010亿美元。更关键的是，在承担为AI基础设施所筹债务（包括近期250亿美元融资）的利息成本后，其每股收益仍有能力实现9.0美元。参照微软、SAP、Salesforce等软件同业27.3倍的市盈率水平，这一盈利预期对应的估值即为每股137美元。换言之，即便AI业务完全归零，甲骨文仅靠核心业务也能支撑当前股价约85%的安全边际，足见其基础业务的现金生成能力之稳固。伯恩斯坦认为，当前甲骨文股价已过度计价悲观预期，风险回报比正进入极具吸引力的区间。随着近期约250亿美元债务及等量股权融资落地，数据中心建设的资金瓶颈已实质性解除。研报强调，只要全球不陷入“AI寒冬”的极端情景，当前估值水平为投资者提供了充分的安全边际与不对称的收益潜力。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"ORCU":0.6,"ORCL":1.97,"ORCX":0.6,"ORCS":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":37,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":27,"optionInvolvedFlag":false,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/533805148960088"}